p-town, so i just checked a handful of the leadoff hitters in MLB that i could think of. jimmy rollins, jayson werth, austin jackson, angel pagan, ian kinsler, alejandro de aza, norichika aoki, all have slg% above 400. other players like michael bourn and desmond jennings have slg% close to .400.
p-town, i would consider a .400 slg% a floor for mlb players. you wont always be able to have that when youre putting together a team, but if im looking at a team, my floor for production is a .400 slg% and a .330 OBP, or else im looking for an upgrade, no matter the position.
September 20th, 2012
1:18 pm
Can Fredi really lead a team to the playoffs?
*************************************************
BRAVES are winning dispite FREDI. I don’t see them getting past the silly playing game. BTW with our record we should be the only WC.
C-MART has been in 51 G with 71.12 IP this season to date. Allowed 79 H, 4.04 ERA, 1.346 WHIP.
None of his stats really exceed last year’s work with the exception of SO/9 and SO/BB ratios where CRISTHIAN has had a big jump. Last season he ‘K’d at a 6.7 per nine rate. This season that has jumped to 8.1 which is also far above his four year career number of 7.2 per nine. His 3.76 ratio of SO to BB is the best of his career.
George – Following up on your comment from this morning…
I frequently disagree with you, and often find your obsessions (with DOB and Fredi) both amusing and tiresome. Many here would probably have similar opinions of me. I would NOT say that I don’t like you. In fact, I find that you often add positively to the discussion (excepting the afore mentioned obsessions). Keep posting, buddy, and forgive my occational snarkiness…chalk it up to my age.
I’m just looking at some of the members of the pen and thinking about who might stay or go.
C-MART’s numbers this season appear ugly compared to his career year [2011], but his walks per nine have declined ever so slightly [2.1 vs. 2.2 in 2011], and his SO’s have really taken off. I say he’s a keeper out of the pen.
Starters for my taste
DELGADO, MINOR, MEDLEN, HUDSON, BEACHY at this point. On stand-by HANSON.
In addition, we need a top pitcher who has something to prove to baseball over the next 24 months. So the BRAVES give him that opportunity, then they part ways. Preferably a FA this fall, but someone under control for a year with a club option would do also.
Just not too spectacular going out. Nothing like that ADAM JONES heist that FW avoided last winter. And a LH’er would be just perfect.
Of course, if wishers were horses, then beggers would ride.
Finally, this morning a diagnosis- VASCULITIS. It’s ugly, but that’s where we are. It is potentially fatal. Now the doctors must decide what type and to what degree she has been effected at this point. More tests no doubt, and more days or weeks without a course of treatment. Meanwhile, the prednisone and albuterol have made life bearable, but not out of the woods by any means as the disease continues on.
Thanx for asking. The short answer: we keep chewing away at the problem. We’ll be successful eventually, I hope.
Ok, maybe I can make my point more clearly….when I said “power” I was directing it toward some saying we need to throw someone out there that can hit 30…ala Trout….
You’re right, 400 SLG isn’t saying much, but of the guys you mentioned, Werth, Rollins, and Kinsler are all making a decent chunk of change….Jackson is about to be a rich man, and De Aza and Jennings are pretty unproven….
So that leaves you with Pagan whom I think has inflated numbers due to the triples in that massive park in SF….
But yeah, I see where you are going and I hope you see where I am based on my commentary about speed, defense, and contact….don’t get me wrong, I dig the long ball too….that said, I have seen way too many instances in the last few years of Braves and the solo dinger….so that leads me to side on OBP over SLG when it comes to that #1 slot.
September 20th, 2012
1:18 pm
Can Fredi really lead a team to the playoffs?
*************************************************
BRAVES are winning dispite FREDI. I don’t see them getting past the silly playing game. BTW with our record we should be the only WC.
Have you two numbnuts ever played the game of baseball? Guessing no.
Have you two numbnuts ever played the game of baseball? Guessing no.
As someone who HAS played the game of baseball for roughly 20 years of my life, that may be the single worst argument that is brought up when disagreeing with someone else’s opinion. Having played baseball doesn’t make anyone’s opinion on it any more valid, nor does not playing make one’s opinion invalid.
That’s not to say the two guys you were referring two are not numbnuts. That could totally be true. But come up with a better reason than “have you ever played the game?”.
I’m not a big Joe Sheehan fan, but I found this viewpoint interesting. Nay, even thought-provoking.
In building his bench for this game, the question the manager has to ask about every single player is: How would I use this player to create a game-deciding run? Players with broad skill sets but no standout tool are less valuable than players who can do one thing — run, hit a homer, reach base — exceptionally well…The tactical value of a player, rather than the strategic one, is what matters.
This makes sense to me. And the gods help me, but this would actually lead me to have The Constanza Bonanza on the play-in game roster, LOL.
p-town, dont need a power hitter, but its nice to have a guy that doesnt get the bat knocked out of his hands.
another characteristic about those guys i mentioned (along with most of them being paid pretty well) they are on good teams. the bad teams have guys who slug .350 leading off. not what we want, if we can help it. which we can. prado should leadoff before we get some slap hitter to bat there.
Based on what I’ve seen from Tim Hudson vs. Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday in his career. I have a really difficult time allowing him to pitch that game over Medlen. I just think it makes so much more sense to have Meds pitch it. I don’t necessarily think Hudson would get pounded, but it’s hard to ignore the data and I think I’d have Tim get ready for Game 1 of the NLDS – provided the ball bounces our way, of course.
If the player steals, then the next batter hits into what WOULD have been an inning ending double play, and then the next batter hits a HR, t…RC
tsk tsk, prime baseball rule: one can never assume a double play.
there is no question but that stolen base totals correlate less with runs scored that many other offensive stats do, though there is some positive relationship
my floor for production is a .400 slg% and a .330 OBP, or else im looking for an upgrade, no matter the position….DAP
I like that pretty much, prefer more obviously, and depends some on the position (no 730 LFers for me) but for the weak hitting positions it makes a good floor
Thanx phil. You know I’ve just ribbin’ ya’. No hard feelings from my end. I really think you do good work here.
***************
I didn’t know what the deal was the other night. All is well.
I’m noodling here, with Sheehan’s note in my head…who, exactly, would I put on a “tactical” bench for the play-in game and why? I figure the SP plus one more guy from the rotation (in case the cops haul the starter off from the stadium for some reason), my three back-end guys, and maybe one more lefty and a couple of righties, depending on the opponent. Eight position players. Still got nine spots. I know I’m taking at least one more catcher, leaves eight. I’ll assume that I can cover all the other defensive positions, in case of injury. Now who do I put on there?
Need some PH thunder from both sides, at least one excellent bunter, a speedy guy, couple of good-eye/contact guys, what else?
Sorry to hear that rich, but good luck on the treatment. AI diseases are troublesome and can be hard to treat. I sure hope she responds well. Got some prayers coming y’all’s way from down here
Then, I remembered pre-2009. Got Vazquez, Lowe and Kawakami to beef up the starting rotation and then? Settled for Garrett Anderson in LF.
But that was only because Bowman and DOB pissed Griffey off.
Kidding…… — RC
If we have that much power, you should thank us. Griffey hit .214 in 2009 and .184 in 2010, the year they found him sleeping in the clubhouse during games.
Just 6 seasons? I was thinking, ya know, like 15. One of my coaches believes that Simmons will be the Braves player most likely to stay in Atlanta for his career, doesn’t see him as being a good enough hitter to get a huge payday somewhere else.
“Doesn’t Pastornicky have speed like Constanza? Y’all keep forgetting about the kid… ”
He’s got some pep but not like Constanza. Still, IMO I keep the kid on the playoff roster over Janish(if he comes back) . Ole Paulie did his job but Rev gives you a little more at the plate and hopefully doesn’t see the field in any games.
For that one game, winner take all play in, toss up, who knows what will happen, roll the dice, pray like crazy, hope like heck game on October 5th, screw the bench. We’d better come out guns a blazing and score about 8-10 runs and have a darn good game from Medlen, thus avoiding even the possibility of needing to rely on anything from the pathetic, thread-bare bench.
The White Sox have signaled to Jake Peavy that they’re unlikely to exercise their $22MM club option for 2013, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Instead, the team is expected to pay a $4MM buyout in a move that would make Peavy a free agent.
That’s not exactly news. Not even KW was going to pay that ransom for one year of Peavy – given his injury history.
He’ll be pretty sought after, though. I’d definitely make a qual. offer to Jake if I were them.
ralieghbravesfan , scoots. You have convenced me to include Constanza ON THE BENCH. Who would you leave off?
i aint scoots, but remember the 25 man can change again once the game is over. so, you dont have to carry 5 starting pitchers, or anything like that. personally, im taking 3 starters (medlen, huddy, and minor) 7 relievers, and 15 position players, including 3 catchers.
sure Efrim, so would I, but I’d rather he hit 930.
Simmons has some super strong defensive skills that might raise 730 off the floor a bit, but for most players I agree with DAP
scoots – Don’t forget a designated “beaner” pitcher, in case you need to plunk someone, and don’t mind your guy getting tossed. If this was a hockey team, you would need a designated “inforcer”…might not be a bad idea. (I hear there’s a bunch of hockey guys hanging around, with nothing to do.)
nolie, I like that pretty much, prefer more obviously, and depends some on the position (no 730 LFers for me)
yeah, its a little bit of a broad brush, but you have to draw a line somewhere. if im a GM, my guys needs to at least be giving me that, or ill be looking for an upgrade.
The Rev had a tendency to want to show off in his brief stay with us earlier this year. I suspect it did him in as much as his overall poor play in the field, minus the show off moments.
The guy likely will never amount to much, just like Schafer never did and likely never will. Those two just don’t seem all that talented to begin with. And I never played the game, so I’m probably dead wrong. Well, I did play in the back yard a lot…
sure Efrim, so would I, but I’d rather he hit 930.
Simmons has some super strong defensive skills that might raise 730 off the floor a bit, but for most players I agree with DAP
It would help to know the average slash line for every single position this year across the 2 leagues. That’s going to help frame the conversation, I think.
He’s got some pep but not like Constanza. Still, IMO I keep the kid on the playoff roster over Janish(if he comes back) . Ole Paulie did his job but Rev gives you a little more at the plate and hopefully doesn’t see the field in any games.
might keep both but no way do I take Ty over Paul if I only keep one, I cain’t believe all the folks one here who think that having a great defensive starter negates the plus of having a great defensive sub. It does not, in fact since some pitching evaluations might be swayed some by the expected defense an unexpected fall off can be a pain. anyway for the one game play-in there will be room for both if they cut back on starters
phil – If we come out blazing, and score 8-10 runs, I’d rather pitch someone besides Medlen, Huddy, and Minor…and save those guys for the next round against Nats or Reds.
Don’t forget a designated “beaner” pitcher, in case you need to plunk someone, and don’t mind your guy getting tossed.
I imagine that this is one game where retaliation would have to wait ’til next year.
I can never remember the rules for being added to a post-season roster, but I think anybody on the 40 could be on it, correct? I’m having trouble filling my eight bench spots.
Efrim – $22M with a $4M buyout??? On a guy with his injury history? Frank Wren haters need to take not…to me that’s far worse than any contract we’ve signed.
Any decent starter added to the free agent pool is good news for teams possibly looking for starting pitching. It can’t hurt to have another on in the mix.
efrim It would help to know the average slash line for every single position this year across the 2 leagues. That’s going to help frame the conversation, I think.
maybe. if i want a winning team, im not all that concerned about the average player. my standard is going to be a little bit higher.
It would help to know the average slash line for every single position this year across the 2 leagues. That’s going to help frame the conversation, I think…Efrim
not so much for me, I want that level or I’m looking to improve. in most cases I would try hard for it not to be that low. In real life baseball, I don’t think relative strength is as important as real production. Obviously I might not always be able to get what I want, but if not I would be looking in most situations
Definitely wouldn’t take three starters. Worst comes to worst, you’d use O’Ventbrel for multiple innings, if need be, so you could cover 4 or 5 innings with those guys, alone.
Sorry not buying that either Nolie. They are not going to keep both obviously. Janish did a serviceable job, great pickup. Extra inning game I want somebody on the bench that’s not hitting a buck 85 like Paulie does. Pastor is a better baserunner, hitter and bunter and gives you more tools to work with. Unless Simmons goes out with a injury, absolutely no need for Janish. Heck Prado can fill in to play a couple of innings if needed at short now. Our bench is still a shortcoming, even more so with Janish sitting there.
Efrim – $22M with a $4M buyout??? On a guy with his injury history? Frank Wren haters need to take not…to me that’s far worse than any contract we’ve signed.
In fairness, I believe when that contract was signed he hadn’t had much of an injury history. Still turned out to be a really bad deal for the White Sox though.
scoots Definitely wouldn’t take three starters. Worst comes to worst, you’d use O’Ventbrel for multiple innings, if need be, so you could cover 4 or 5 innings with those guys, alone.
im taking minor as a long reliever. a lefty with strikeout stuff. leave him off if you want man, its your funeral.
not so much for me, I want that level or I’m looking to improve. in most cases I would try hard for it not to be that low. In real life baseball, I don’t think relative strength is as important as real production. Obviously I might not always be able to get what I want, but if not I would be looking in most situations
avergae NL SS having a .257/.310/.387/.697 line. – TOBF
I can honestly say that I do not expect Andrelton Simmons to hit much more than average(the above) too often. And I don’t expect Wren to continue to look for a replacement for SS.
Worst comes to worst, you’d use O’Ventbrel for multiple innings, if need be, so you could cover 4 or 5 innings with those guys, alone.
No chance that happens. The only way you’d know you needed to sue them for multiple innings is if the game goes to extras, and by that time Fredi will have already used Venters and O’Flaherty in single inning situations. My guess is they take 2 starters, just in case something happens to the first.
maybe. if i want a winning team, im not all that concerned about the average player. my standard is going to be a little bit higher.
I guess I just value D at a premium position like SS or C. I don’t see Simmons hitting .730 regularly. And with that said, I don’t believe Wren feels he needs an upgrade there.
im taking minor as a long reliever. a lefty with strikeout stuff. leave him off if you want man, its your funeral.
If a situation arise in which Minor would be required, things have probably gone very, very poorly already. It’s likely everyone’s funeral at that point.
im taking minor as a long reliever. a lefty with strikeout stuff. leave him off if you want man, its your funeral.
He’s outta here! Hudson, too, for that matter. Regardless of whether Hudson or Medlen starts the game, I’m probably taking Hanson or Maholm as the second starter. That guy gets in the game only if the slated starter tears something in the bullpen before the game. Otherwise, I go with my bully after the starter.
Well, if we’re taking 2 starters instead of 3 (which I’d prefer), take Medlen and Minor. They’ve been our best starters since July 1. Spin it to Huddy as us saving him for game 1 of the NLDS.
maybe. if i want a winning team, im not all that concerned about the average player. my standard is going to be a little bit higher.
Considering that a few of the “above average” shortstops play on the Phillies, Marlins, and Cubs, I’d say it’s not hard at all to have a winning team while being below average at a few positions.
phil – If we come out blazing, and score 8-10 runs, I’d rather pitch someone besides Medlen, Huddy, and Minor…and save those guys for the next round against Nats or Reds.
****************
Moi aussi, but we can’t know in advance if the guns will be a blazin….we can know, however, that they very likely will be as silent as a snowy morn, based on our past history.
no reason to be sorry Frankie. If Janish is healthy they could easily use both in the one game scenatio. Next season I will bet bullets that Janish is the BU SS whatever they do with Ty
Janish or Rev in NLDS or NLCS? I say Ty. Next year I agree, Janish is the backup. Talking in the present though, I am going with more offensive power than a one dimensional guy in the playoffs.
Yeah, Huddy gets blasted by Molina, Holliday, and Beltran….
Thing is, there aren’t many PA to go by, but Medlen has done well against each of their big 3….
Holliday 0 for 3 w/ 2K
Molina 1 for 4
Beltran 0 for 6
I actually like that many of their guys havent gotten a 1st hand look of Medlen either….I think that also gives him another advantage over Huddy there….especially when you consider that the Cards have made Huddy their personal b*tch
“ncscoots, September 20th, 2012, 11:29 am … “google “baseball correlation stats” or something like that. Ought to bring up thousands of hits.”
I’m going to read all those articles. Then, I’ll know everything about the subject there is to know. ‘Cause you know, everything on the interweb must be true. Folks wouldn’t write it and put it out there otherwise.
(Actually, I did find the SABR research journal archive. There might be something useful there.)
Okay, so suppose we made it to the NLDS. Simmons and Rev are the SS on the roster, Janish isn’t. If Simmons were to get hurt, would we be able to call up Janish to replace him? Or must we wait until the NLCS (if we make it)
Basically, are replacements for injured players allowed to be made in the middle of a series?
RC If a situation arise in which Minor would be required, things have probably gone very, very poorly already.
i dont think so. could be a long extra inning game, you never know. if im taking one extra starter in case plan A goes down to injury, im gonna take two, in case plan A goes down to injury and we go extras.
I’m trying scoots, I really am. He’s a decent pitcher, I just don’t know if I’d want him to start in the playoffs. Even in an emergency. Lefties kill him.
1,958 comments Add your comment
DAP
September 20th, 2012
1:04 pm
p-town, so i just checked a handful of the leadoff hitters in MLB that i could think of. jimmy rollins, jayson werth, austin jackson, angel pagan, ian kinsler, alejandro de aza, norichika aoki, all have slg% above 400. other players like michael bourn and desmond jennings have slg% close to .400.
DAP
September 20th, 2012
1:12 pm
p-town I’d rather have a solid OBP, low K’s, 1:1 K/BB ratio, great speed, good baserunning, solid D guy…..
for a leadoff hitter, id rather have a .400 OBP than a .400 slg. but, you usually dont see player with no power get on bse that much.
Power means little to nothing to me when we already have Freeman, McCann, Uggla, Heyward…..we dont need another 120+ K guy….
a .400 slg% isnt a power hitter. its a guy that gets a respectable amount of hits, some for extra bases.
ACE
September 20th, 2012
1:18 pm
Can Fredi really lead a team to the playoffs?
DAP
September 20th, 2012
1:18 pm
p-town, i would consider a .400 slg% a floor for mlb players. you wont always be able to have that when youre putting together a team, but if im looking at a team, my floor for production is a .400 slg% and a .330 OBP, or else im looking for an upgrade, no matter the position.
RC
September 20th, 2012
1:24 pm
Can Fredi really lead a team to the playoffs?
If Bruce Bochy and Bob Brenly can win World Series, then yes.
Efrim
September 20th, 2012
1:26 pm
If Bruce Bochy and Bob Brenly can win World Series, then yes.
I still can’t believe Brian Sabean won a World Series.
DAP
September 20th, 2012
1:30 pm
i always though bruce bochy was pretty good. he aint?
George_George
September 20th, 2012
1:32 pm
ACE
September 20th, 2012
1:18 pm
Can Fredi really lead a team to the playoffs?
*************************************************
BRAVES are winning dispite FREDI. I don’t see them getting past the silly playing game. BTW with our record we should be the only WC.
Ghost of Chipper Jones
September 20th, 2012
1:42 pm
C-MART has been in 51 G with 71.12 IP this season to date. Allowed 79 H, 4.04 ERA, 1.346 WHIP.
None of his stats really exceed last year’s work with the exception of SO/9 and SO/BB ratios where CRISTHIAN has had a big jump. Last season he ‘K’d at a 6.7 per nine rate. This season that has jumped to 8.1 which is also far above his four year career number of 7.2 per nine. His 3.76 ratio of SO to BB is the best of his career.
raleighbravefan
September 20th, 2012
1:50 pm
George – Following up on your comment from this morning…
I frequently disagree with you, and often find your obsessions (with DOB and Fredi) both amusing and tiresome. Many here would probably have similar opinions of me. I would NOT say that I don’t like you. In fact, I find that you often add positively to the discussion (excepting the afore mentioned obsessions). Keep posting, buddy, and forgive my occational snarkiness…chalk it up to my age.
raleighbravefan
September 20th, 2012
1:52 pm
Ghost – How’s your wife doing?
phil
September 20th, 2012
1:57 pm
flange1
September 20th, 2012
12:30 pm
Days like today are when the blog is at it’s best.
I am enjoying all of the discussions without the normal negative nellies throwing in a we’re doomed every 4 sentences.
**************
We’re done for….
How’s that?
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 20th, 2012
2:03 pm
Let CMart walk next year,he’ll be making 1mil or so. Let Gearrin or someone similar pitch. Save 500k.
chipontheroad
September 20th, 2012
2:07 pm
NO Bravos tonight GO Dodgers(
Ghost of Chipper Jones
September 20th, 2012
2:08 pm
I’m just looking at some of the members of the pen and thinking about who might stay or go.
C-MART’s numbers this season appear ugly compared to his career year [2011], but his walks per nine have declined ever so slightly [2.1 vs. 2.2 in 2011], and his SO’s have really taken off. I say he’s a keeper out of the pen.
Starters for my taste
DELGADO, MINOR, MEDLEN, HUDSON, BEACHY at this point. On stand-by HANSON.
In addition, we need a top pitcher who has something to prove to baseball over the next 24 months. So the BRAVES give him that opportunity, then they part ways. Preferably a FA this fall, but someone under control for a year with a club option would do also.
Just not too spectacular going out. Nothing like that ADAM JONES heist that FW avoided last winter. And a LH’er would be just perfect.
Of course, if wishers were horses, then beggers would ride.
Potential trade, if there is any value to be had:
JURRJENS, HANSON, MAHOLM
Gone
FA SHEETS
flange1
September 20th, 2012
2:08 pm
Thanks phil!
Ghost of Chipper Jones
September 20th, 2012
2:16 pm
raleigh:
Finally, this morning a diagnosis- VASCULITIS. It’s ugly, but that’s where we are. It is potentially fatal. Now the doctors must decide what type and to what degree she has been effected at this point. More tests no doubt, and more days or weeks without a course of treatment. Meanwhile, the prednisone and albuterol have made life bearable, but not out of the woods by any means as the disease continues on.
Thanx for asking. The short answer: we keep chewing away at the problem. We’ll be successful eventually, I hope.
raleighbravefan
September 20th, 2012
2:21 pm
Ghost – Hang in there, my friend, and tell her that a lot of people that she doesn’t even know, are praying, and rooting for her full recovery.
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 20th, 2012
2:22 pm
Continued prayer for you and your wife, Ghost. Not good news at all.
P-Town Brave ©
September 20th, 2012
2:23 pm
DAP-
Ok, maybe I can make my point more clearly….when I said “power” I was directing it toward some saying we need to throw someone out there that can hit 30…ala Trout….
You’re right, 400 SLG isn’t saying much, but of the guys you mentioned, Werth, Rollins, and Kinsler are all making a decent chunk of change….Jackson is about to be a rich man, and De Aza and Jennings are pretty unproven….
So that leaves you with Pagan whom I think has inflated numbers due to the triples in that massive park in SF….
But yeah, I see where you are going and I hope you see where I am based on my commentary about speed, defense, and contact….don’t get me wrong, I dig the long ball too….that said, I have seen way too many instances in the last few years of Braves and the solo dinger….so that leads me to side on OBP over SLG when it comes to that #1 slot.
phil
September 20th, 2012
2:23 pm
Same here, Ghost….
Ghost of Chipper Jones
September 20th, 2012
2:26 pm
Thanx phil. You know I’ve just ribbin’ ya’. No hard feelings from my end. I really think you do good work here.
Ghost of Chipper Jones
September 20th, 2012
2:28 pm
TOBF:
Thanx.
Ghost of Chipper Jones
September 20th, 2012
2:29 pm
Doc #4 time. Later.
Frankie
September 20th, 2012
2:33 pm
ACE
September 20th, 2012
1:18 pm
Can Fredi really lead a team to the playoffs?
*************************************************
BRAVES are winning dispite FREDI. I don’t see them getting past the silly playing game. BTW with our record we should be the only WC.
Have you two numbnuts ever played the game of baseball? Guessing no.
Efrim
September 20th, 2012
2:37 pm
One word to describe it and him: Awesome.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-company-that-kris-medlen-keeps/
RC
September 20th, 2012
2:38 pm
Have you two numbnuts ever played the game of baseball? Guessing no.
As someone who HAS played the game of baseball for roughly 20 years of my life, that may be the single worst argument that is brought up when disagreeing with someone else’s opinion. Having played baseball doesn’t make anyone’s opinion on it any more valid, nor does not playing make one’s opinion invalid.
That’s not to say the two guys you were referring two are not numbnuts. That could totally be true. But come up with a better reason than “have you ever played the game?”.
Frankie
September 20th, 2012
2:42 pm
Pulease
Same crap day in day out about the Manager and how this team is so bad because of him. It’s just a tiring freaking act and you know it.
ncscoots
September 20th, 2012
2:42 pm
I’m not a big Joe Sheehan fan, but I found this viewpoint interesting. Nay, even thought-provoking.
In building his bench for this game, the question the manager has to ask about every single player is: How would I use this player to create a game-deciding run? Players with broad skill sets but no standout tool are less valuable than players who can do one thing — run, hit a homer, reach base — exceptionally well…The tactical value of a player, rather than the strategic one, is what matters.
This makes sense to me. And the gods help me, but this would actually lead me to have The Constanza Bonanza on the play-in game roster, LOL.
Frankie
September 20th, 2012
2:45 pm
Bruce Bochy reference to winning a world series and anybody can?
Wow, really? Not the 27 Yankees he’s trotting out there daily this season and doing it again. Might want to rethink that one.
DAP
September 20th, 2012
2:46 pm
p-town, dont need a power hitter, but its nice to have a guy that doesnt get the bat knocked out of his hands.
another characteristic about those guys i mentioned (along with most of them being paid pretty well) they are on good teams. the bad teams have guys who slug .350 leading off. not what we want, if we can help it. which we can. prado should leadoff before we get some slap hitter to bat there.
DAP
September 20th, 2012
2:51 pm
ncscoots This makes sense to me. And the gods help me, but this would actually lead me to have The Constanza Bonanza on the play-in game roster,
for that situation where you need a nubber off the end of the bat to be nearly beaten to first base? :- )
nah, i know. pinch running.
Efrim
September 20th, 2012
2:52 pm
This makes sense to me. And the gods help me, but this would actually lead me to have The Constanza Bonanza on the play-in game roster, LOL.
Starting to come to grips that we are in the “coin flip” game, eh scoots?
raleighbravefan
September 20th, 2012
2:54 pm
RC
I concur…I wonder how much baseball Vin Scully played.
Efrim
September 20th, 2012
2:54 pm
Based on what I’ve seen from Tim Hudson vs. Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday in his career. I have a really difficult time allowing him to pitch that game over Medlen. I just think it makes so much more sense to have Meds pitch it. I don’t necessarily think Hudson would get pounded, but it’s hard to ignore the data and I think I’d have Tim get ready for Game 1 of the NLDS – provided the ball bounces our way, of course.
nolie
September 20th, 2012
2:54 pm
If the player steals, then the next batter hits into what WOULD have been an inning ending double play, and then the next batter hits a HR, t…RC
tsk tsk, prime baseball rule: one can never assume a double play.
there is no question but that stolen base totals correlate less with runs scored that many other offensive stats do, though there is some positive relationship
raleighbravefan
September 20th, 2012
2:56 pm
OK, scoots. You have convenced me to include Constanza ON THE BENCH. Who would you leave off?
nolie
September 20th, 2012
2:57 pm
my floor for production is a .400 slg% and a .330 OBP, or else im looking for an upgrade, no matter the position….DAP
I like that pretty much, prefer more obviously, and depends some on the position (no 730 LFers for me) but for the weak hitting positions it makes a good floor
phil
September 20th, 2012
2:57 pm
Ghost of Chipper Jones
September 20th, 2012
2:26 pm
Thanx phil. You know I’ve just ribbin’ ya’. No hard feelings from my end. I really think you do good work here.
***************
I didn’t know what the deal was the other night. All is well.
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 20th, 2012
3:00 pm
Doesn’t Pastornicky have speed like Constanza? Y’all keep forgetting about the kid…
ncscoots
September 20th, 2012
3:01 pm
I’m noodling here, with Sheehan’s note in my head…who, exactly, would I put on a “tactical” bench for the play-in game and why? I figure the SP plus one more guy from the rotation (in case the cops haul the starter off from the stadium for some reason), my three back-end guys, and maybe one more lefty and a couple of righties, depending on the opponent. Eight position players. Still got nine spots. I know I’m taking at least one more catcher, leaves eight. I’ll assume that I can cover all the other defensive positions, in case of injury. Now who do I put on there?
Need some PH thunder from both sides, at least one excellent bunter, a speedy guy, couple of good-eye/contact guys, what else?
Efrim
September 20th, 2012
3:01 pm
I’d be delighted if Andrelton Simmons can average .730 over the next six seasons. That’s an incredibly valuable player we have if he does do that.
nolie
September 20th, 2012
3:02 pm
Sorry to hear that rich, but good luck on the treatment. AI diseases are troublesome and can be hard to treat. I sure hope she responds well. Got some prayers coming y’all’s way from down here
David O'Brien
September 20th, 2012
3:03 pm
Then, I remembered pre-2009. Got Vazquez, Lowe and Kawakami to beef up the starting rotation and then? Settled for Garrett Anderson in LF.
But that was only because Bowman and DOB pissed Griffey off.
Kidding…… — RC
If we have that much power, you should thank us. Griffey hit .214 in 2009 and .184 in 2010, the year they found him sleeping in the clubhouse during games.
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 20th, 2012
3:04 pm
Just 6 seasons? I was thinking, ya know, like 15. One of my coaches believes that Simmons will be the Braves player most likely to stay in Atlanta for his career, doesn’t see him as being a good enough hitter to get a huge payday somewhere else.
Frankie
September 20th, 2012
3:04 pm
“Doesn’t Pastornicky have speed like Constanza? Y’all keep forgetting about the kid… ”
He’s got some pep but not like Constanza. Still, IMO I keep the kid on the playoff roster over Janish(if he comes back) . Ole Paulie did his job but Rev gives you a little more at the plate and hopefully doesn’t see the field in any games.
phil
September 20th, 2012
3:05 pm
For that one game, winner take all play in, toss up, who knows what will happen, roll the dice, pray like crazy, hope like heck game on October 5th, screw the bench. We’d better come out guns a blazing and score about 8-10 runs and have a darn good game from Medlen, thus avoiding even the possibility of needing to rely on anything from the pathetic, thread-bare bench.
Efrim
September 20th, 2012
3:06 pm
The White Sox have signaled to Jake Peavy that they’re unlikely to exercise their $22MM club option for 2013, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Instead, the team is expected to pay a $4MM buyout in a move that would make Peavy a free agent.
That’s not exactly news. Not even KW was going to pay that ransom for one year of Peavy – given his injury history.
He’ll be pretty sought after, though. I’d definitely make a qual. offer to Jake if I were them.
count_schemula
September 20th, 2012
3:06 pm
“Doesn’t Pastornicky have speed like Constanza? Y’all keep forgetting about the kid…”
He does have some speed. He mostly batted 8th though, so, he never got to use it.
DAP
September 20th, 2012
3:07 pm
ralieghbravesfan , scoots. You have convenced me to include Constanza ON THE BENCH. Who would you leave off?
i aint scoots, but remember the 25 man can change again once the game is over. so, you dont have to carry 5 starting pitchers, or anything like that. personally, im taking 3 starters (medlen, huddy, and minor) 7 relievers, and 15 position players, including 3 catchers.
nolie
September 20th, 2012
3:08 pm
sure Efrim, so would I, but I’d rather he hit 930.
Simmons has some super strong defensive skills that might raise 730 off the floor a bit, but for most players I agree with DAP
raleighbravefan
September 20th, 2012
3:10 pm
scoots – Don’t forget a designated “beaner” pitcher, in case you need to plunk someone, and don’t mind your guy getting tossed. If this was a hockey team, you would need a designated “inforcer”…might not be a bad idea. (I hear there’s a bunch of hockey guys hanging around, with nothing to do.)
DAP
September 20th, 2012
3:11 pm
nolie, I like that pretty much, prefer more obviously, and depends some on the position (no 730 LFers for me)
yeah, its a little bit of a broad brush, but you have to draw a line somewhere. if im a GM, my guys needs to at least be giving me that, or ill be looking for an upgrade.
phil
September 20th, 2012
3:12 pm
The Rev had a tendency to want to show off in his brief stay with us earlier this year. I suspect it did him in as much as his overall poor play in the field, minus the show off moments.
The guy likely will never amount to much, just like Schafer never did and likely never will. Those two just don’t seem all that talented to begin with. And I never played the game, so I’m probably dead wrong. Well, I did play in the back yard a lot…
Efrim
September 20th, 2012
3:13 pm
sure Efrim, so would I, but I’d rather he hit 930.
Simmons has some super strong defensive skills that might raise 730 off the floor a bit, but for most players I agree with DAP
It would help to know the average slash line for every single position this year across the 2 leagues. That’s going to help frame the conversation, I think.
Brian from SC
September 20th, 2012
3:13 pm
Jake Peavy will be available this off-season. The White Sox will not pick up his option, according to Jon Heyman.
nolie
September 20th, 2012
3:13 pm
He’s got some pep but not like Constanza. Still, IMO I keep the kid on the playoff roster over Janish(if he comes back) . Ole Paulie did his job but Rev gives you a little more at the plate and hopefully doesn’t see the field in any games.
might keep both but no way do I take Ty over Paul if I only keep one, I cain’t believe all the folks one here who think that having a great defensive starter negates the plus of having a great defensive sub. It does not, in fact since some pitching evaluations might be swayed some by the expected defense an unexpected fall off can be a pain. anyway for the one game play-in there will be room for both if they cut back on starters
raleighbravefan
September 20th, 2012
3:13 pm
phil – If we come out blazing, and score 8-10 runs, I’d rather pitch someone besides Medlen, Huddy, and Minor…and save those guys for the next round against Nats or Reds.
Efrim
September 20th, 2012
3:14 pm
If the .850 is the new .900, then that has to change what is “acceptable” from an offense standpoint.
I think Simmons is an All Star in my book every single year if he is going to hit .730 and play that sort of defense at the position.
Need to value the glove and the baserunning.
Animus
September 20th, 2012
3:15 pm
Something I just saw – the Braves are 43-32 at home and 43-32 on the road. Guess I love symmetry.
ncscoots
September 20th, 2012
3:16 pm
Don’t forget a designated “beaner” pitcher, in case you need to plunk someone, and don’t mind your guy getting tossed.
I imagine that this is one game where retaliation would have to wait ’til next year.
I can never remember the rules for being added to a post-season roster, but I think anybody on the 40 could be on it, correct? I’m having trouble filling my eight bench spots.
Efrim
September 20th, 2012
3:16 pm
Jake Peavy will be available this off-season.
Frontline talent. Injury history is too much for us though. He’d make a good bit of sense for a team with a large payroll that can take some risks.
raleighbravefan
September 20th, 2012
3:16 pm
Efrim – $22M with a $4M buyout??? On a guy with his injury history? Frank Wren haters need to take not…to me that’s far worse than any contract we’ve signed.
Brian from SC
September 20th, 2012
3:16 pm
Any decent starter added to the free agent pool is good news for teams possibly looking for starting pitching. It can’t hurt to have another on in the mix.
Brian from SC
September 20th, 2012
3:17 pm
raleigh, the White Sox are declining that option, which means he will be a free agent this off-season.
Brian from SC
September 20th, 2012
3:17 pm
Oh, I see what you’re saying now, raleigh. Sorry.
DAP
September 20th, 2012
3:20 pm
efrim It would help to know the average slash line for every single position this year across the 2 leagues. That’s going to help frame the conversation, I think.
maybe. if i want a winning team, im not all that concerned about the average player. my standard is going to be a little bit higher.
nolie
September 20th, 2012
3:21 pm
It would help to know the average slash line for every single position this year across the 2 leagues. That’s going to help frame the conversation, I think…Efrim
not so much for me, I want that level or I’m looking to improve. in most cases I would try hard for it not to be that low. In real life baseball, I don’t think relative strength is as important as real production. Obviously I might not always be able to get what I want, but if not I would be looking in most situations
raleighbravefan
September 20th, 2012
3:21 pm
scoots – So you’re saying that being on an NHL roster doesn’t qualify you for the MLB post season? Oh well, it was just a thought.
ncscoots
September 20th, 2012
3:21 pm
Medlen, Huddy, and Minor
Definitely wouldn’t take three starters. Worst comes to worst, you’d use O’Ventbrel for multiple innings, if need be, so you could cover 4 or 5 innings with those guys, alone.
Frankie
September 20th, 2012
3:21 pm
Sorry not buying that either Nolie. They are not going to keep both obviously. Janish did a serviceable job, great pickup. Extra inning game I want somebody on the bench that’s not hitting a buck 85 like Paulie does. Pastor is a better baserunner, hitter and bunter and gives you more tools to work with. Unless Simmons goes out with a injury, absolutely no need for Janish. Heck Prado can fill in to play a couple of innings if needed at short now. Our bench is still a shortcoming, even more so with Janish sitting there.
DAP
September 20th, 2012
3:21 pm
id take a risk on peavy, if the price was good. will he get a multiyear deal?
Frankie
September 20th, 2012
3:23 pm
Thoughts on extended playoffs and not just the playin game BTW
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 20th, 2012
3:23 pm
This stuff Efrim? http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=NL&year=2012#defp
If so, it shows the avergae NL SS having a .257/.310/.387/.697 line. Average AL SS has a .256 /307/.371/.677 line.
RC
September 20th, 2012
3:23 pm
Efrim – $22M with a $4M buyout??? On a guy with his injury history? Frank Wren haters need to take not…to me that’s far worse than any contract we’ve signed.
In fairness, I believe when that contract was signed he hadn’t had much of an injury history. Still turned out to be a really bad deal for the White Sox though.
Brian from SC
September 20th, 2012
3:23 pm
Peavy’s going to pass 200 innings this year, and pitching pretty well. I think he’ll get multiple years.
DAP
September 20th, 2012
3:25 pm
scoots Definitely wouldn’t take three starters. Worst comes to worst, you’d use O’Ventbrel for multiple innings, if need be, so you could cover 4 or 5 innings with those guys, alone.
im taking minor as a long reliever. a lefty with strikeout stuff. leave him off if you want man, its your funeral.
Efrim
September 20th, 2012
3:27 pm
not so much for me, I want that level or I’m looking to improve. in most cases I would try hard for it not to be that low. In real life baseball, I don’t think relative strength is as important as real production. Obviously I might not always be able to get what I want, but if not I would be looking in most situations
avergae NL SS having a .257/.310/.387/.697 line. – TOBF
I can honestly say that I do not expect Andrelton Simmons to hit much more than average(the above) too often. And I don’t expect Wren to continue to look for a replacement for SS.
RC
September 20th, 2012
3:27 pm
Worst comes to worst, you’d use O’Ventbrel for multiple innings, if need be, so you could cover 4 or 5 innings with those guys, alone.
No chance that happens. The only way you’d know you needed to sue them for multiple innings is if the game goes to extras, and by that time Fredi will have already used Venters and O’Flaherty in single inning situations. My guess is they take 2 starters, just in case something happens to the first.
Efrim
September 20th, 2012
3:28 pm
maybe. if i want a winning team, im not all that concerned about the average player. my standard is going to be a little bit higher.
I guess I just value D at a premium position like SS or C. I don’t see Simmons hitting .730 regularly. And with that said, I don’t believe Wren feels he needs an upgrade there.
RC
September 20th, 2012
3:29 pm
im taking minor as a long reliever. a lefty with strikeout stuff. leave him off if you want man, its your funeral.
If a situation arise in which Minor would be required, things have probably gone very, very poorly already. It’s likely everyone’s funeral at that point.
Efrim
September 20th, 2012
3:29 pm
I think Peavy gets a three year deal. Heck, maybe as high as 14 million a year.
ncscoots
September 20th, 2012
3:29 pm
im taking minor as a long reliever. a lefty with strikeout stuff. leave him off if you want man, its your funeral.
He’s outta here! Hudson, too, for that matter. Regardless of whether Hudson or Medlen starts the game, I’m probably taking Hanson or Maholm as the second starter. That guy gets in the game only if the slated starter tears something in the bullpen before the game. Otherwise, I go with my bully after the starter.
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 20th, 2012
3:30 pm
Well, if we’re taking 2 starters instead of 3 (which I’d prefer), take Medlen and Minor. They’ve been our best starters since July 1. Spin it to Huddy as us saving him for game 1 of the NLDS.
nolie
September 20th, 2012
3:30 pm
I already said that Simmons is strong enough to lower his hitting floor. that does not apply to all that many players
RC
September 20th, 2012
3:31 pm
maybe. if i want a winning team, im not all that concerned about the average player. my standard is going to be a little bit higher.
Considering that a few of the “above average” shortstops play on the Phillies, Marlins, and Cubs, I’d say it’s not hard at all to have a winning team while being below average at a few positions.
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 20th, 2012
3:34 pm
Hanson or Maholm as the 2nd starter….. ouch, esp. with the 1st guy. Whoever the intended SP is better not get hurt!
phil
September 20th, 2012
3:34 pm
raleighbravefan
September 20th, 2012
3:13 pm
phil – If we come out blazing, and score 8-10 runs, I’d rather pitch someone besides Medlen, Huddy, and Minor…and save those guys for the next round against Nats or Reds.
****************
Moi aussi, but we can’t know in advance if the guns will be a blazin….we can know, however, that they very likely will be as silent as a snowy morn, based on our past history.
nolie
September 20th, 2012
3:34 pm
no reason to be sorry Frankie. If Janish is healthy they could easily use both in the one game scenatio. Next season I will bet bullets that Janish is the BU SS whatever they do with Ty
Brian from SC
September 20th, 2012
3:34 pm
Indians beat the Twins in extra innings!
Yeah…no one cares. 12,231 people at that game. That’s actually better than I would have thought.
phil
September 20th, 2012
3:36 pm
Absolutely, Janish should be the backup next year, unless he tore up his labrum the other night and is about to miss a year or so….
Janish was terrific for us, whether he could hit a lick or not. Guy was rock solid.
Frankie
September 20th, 2012
3:37 pm
Janish or Rev in NLDS or NLCS? I say Ty. Next year I agree, Janish is the backup. Talking in the present though, I am going with more offensive power than a one dimensional guy in the playoffs.
ncscoots
September 20th, 2012
3:38 pm
ouch, esp. with the 1st guy.
If you’d think for a second, instead of knee-jerk some dumb-azz Hanson rip, you’d realize that he’s a good choice for that particular spot.
P-Town Brave ©
September 20th, 2012
3:38 pm
Efrim-
Yeah, Huddy gets blasted by Molina, Holliday, and Beltran….
Thing is, there aren’t many PA to go by, but Medlen has done well against each of their big 3….
Holliday 0 for 3 w/ 2K
Molina 1 for 4
Beltran 0 for 6
I actually like that many of their guys havent gotten a 1st hand look of Medlen either….I think that also gives him another advantage over Huddy there….especially when you consider that the Cards have made Huddy their personal b*tch
nolie
September 20th, 2012
3:38 pm
I think Simmons might hit 730 ish fairly often
phil
September 20th, 2012
3:39 pm
Simmons is clearly too injury-prone….
Dump that sackorocks right here and now!
abeeeewright
September 20th, 2012
3:40 pm
“ncscoots, September 20th, 2012, 11:29 am … “google “baseball correlation stats” or something like that. Ought to bring up thousands of hits.”
I’m going to read all those articles. Then, I’ll know everything about the subject there is to know. ‘Cause you know, everything on the interweb must be true. Folks wouldn’t write it and put it out there otherwise.
(Actually, I did find the SABR research journal archive. There might be something useful there.)
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 20th, 2012
3:40 pm
Okay, so suppose we made it to the NLDS. Simmons and Rev are the SS on the roster, Janish isn’t. If Simmons were to get hurt, would we be able to call up Janish to replace him? Or must we wait until the NLCS (if we make it)
Basically, are replacements for injured players allowed to be made in the middle of a series?
DAP
September 20th, 2012
3:41 pm
RC If a situation arise in which Minor would be required, things have probably gone very, very poorly already.
i dont think so. could be a long extra inning game, you never know. if im taking one extra starter in case plan A goes down to injury, im gonna take two, in case plan A goes down to injury and we go extras.
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 20th, 2012
3:42 pm
I’m trying scoots, I really am. He’s a decent pitcher, I just don’t know if I’d want him to start in the playoffs. Even in an emergency. Lefties kill him.