Braves must avoid slip vs. Marlins team they’ve handled

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Puma

September 18th, 2012
1:00 pm

get a room Arkansas!

DAP

September 18th, 2012
1:00 pm

lemke’s knuckler There needs to be some advantage for the team with the better record.

how about home field?

Brave New World

September 18th, 2012
1:01 pm

Getting Angel Pagan would be a good move for 2013. I also wouldn’t mind getting Shane Victorino.

Brian from SC

September 18th, 2012
1:01 pm

In fact, I’ll take it one step further.

If the Braves are one game behind Washington on the last day, should they try to lose the last game?

If they tie Washington, they’ll have to fly to Washington for a one-game playoff on the next day. If they win, they are in the NLDS. If they lose, they have to fly to Atlanta the next day for a one-game playoff.

If they finish behind Washington, they’ll just have to play one game at home to get in the NLDS.

RC

September 18th, 2012
1:01 pm

Jayson Stark ‏@jaysonst
Time to reveal that @MikeandMike trivia answer. Soriano, Chipper & Mark Reynolds were the other 40-20 club members. Almost no one got it!

This prompted me to go look at Chipper’s baseball reference page to see what that season looked like. Holy cow, Chipper Jones’s 1999 season was freakin’ incredible.

Another random thing that I didn’t realize until seeing his page: Chipper has NEVER had 100 strikeouts in a season. His closest total was 99….in his rookie year.

That’s freakin’ impressive.

Arkansas Transplant

September 18th, 2012
1:04 pm

Shane Victorino? No thank you. The guy is over the hill and in decline.

RC

September 18th, 2012
1:04 pm

In fact, I’ll take it one step further.

If the Braves are one game behind Washington on the last day, should they try to lose the last game?

If they tie Washington, they’ll have to fly to Washington for a one-game playoff on the next day. If they win, they are in the NLDS. If they lose, they have to fly to Atlanta the next day for a one-game playoff.

If they finish behind Washington, they’ll just have to play one game at home to get in the NLDS.

No, they should go for the win. Having 2 chances to win 1 game are much better odds than having 1 chance to win 1 game, no matter how much travel is involved.

nolie

September 18th, 2012
1:05 pm

yup, Chipper did it all in ‘99. only player with 100 RS and RBI, 300BA 40+ doubles, 40+ homers and 25 steals in one season IIRC

George_George

September 18th, 2012
1:06 pm

George_George Repost, they stuck me at bottom of page again

September 18th, 2012
12:58 pm
DAP

September 18th, 2012
12:51 pm
id have medlen, huddy, and minor on the roster for the one gamer, along with my 7 best bullpen arms and 15 position players (3 catchers).
*********************************************
That silly play-in game should not even be played. If we finish where we arw in standings. We should be the ONLY WC.

TennesseePaul

September 18th, 2012
1:07 pm

The best use of available funds would be to trade for Craig Gentry for CF.

So… just offer the Rangers a pile of cash and see if they send back Craig? If he’s as good as you hype him to be, why would the Rangers trade him for “cash considerations”?

Brian from SC

September 18th, 2012
1:08 pm

Having 2 chances to win 1 game are much better odds than having 1 chance to win 1 game, no matter how much travel is involved.

Does playing the first game make it significantly more likely you would lose the second? Enough to tip the scales?

I’m not saying one way or the other. It’s something to think about.

Pros for being tied with Washington, compared to finishing behind them:
If you win the division playoff, you get 3 home games in the NLDS.
If you have one bad day, your season is not over.

Pros for finishing behind Washington:
A day of rest between the end of the season and the playoff.
Using Medlen in a home game for an NLDS spot.
You stand to have a better rotation set up for the NLDS.

ncscoots

September 18th, 2012
1:08 pm

There needs to be some advantage for the team with the better record.

Geez, they already give you a playoff berth for finishing second. Asking for more just seems greedy, no? :-)

nolie

September 18th, 2012
1:10 pm

your reward/advantage is home court.
and yes you would go for the win in the previous question

TennesseePaul

September 18th, 2012
1:10 pm

Chipper has NEVER had 100 strikeouts in a season.

I had reasonable expectations Heyward would do this, but that’s not happening.

You know who else did this? Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams…

RC

September 18th, 2012
1:11 pm

Does playing the first game make it significantly more likely you would lose the second? Enough to tip the scales?

I’m not saying one way or the other. It’s something to think about.

It is something to think about. I don’t think that it does make it enough more likely to tip the scales. Heck, it could make you more likely to win since the opposition will have to wait a day without playing. One day isn’t likely to make a difference, but a team can still “get cold” waiting to play.

Plus, the upside of winning that first game is significant enough to outweigh the risk of playing game 2 at less than full strength.

George_George

September 18th, 2012
1:12 pm

Outta here for a bit, hope to be back before game start. If not KEEP IT GOING BRAVES.

ncscoots

September 18th, 2012
1:12 pm

I had reasonable expectations Heyward would do this, but that’s not happening.

Hateraid.

All because Heyward is tall, most likely. :-)

Arkansas Transplant

September 18th, 2012
1:12 pm

why would the Rangers trade him for “cash considerations”?

cash considerations? don’t see it happening but I don’t see them asking much in return either… and by asking much, I mean one of our top 10 prospects.

If he’s as good as you hype him to be

What makes him such a good fit for the Braves, doesn’t necessarily make him indispensible to the Rangers.

nolie

September 18th, 2012
1:13 pm

nobody plays to lose

Brian from SC

September 18th, 2012
1:13 pm

For sure, these are the preferable scenarios:

1. Tied with Washington, win the playoff in Washington
2. Finish behind Washington
3. Tied with Washington, lose the playoff in Washington

Brian from SC

September 18th, 2012
1:14 pm

nobody plays to lose

There’s never been much of a reason to, right?

nolie

September 18th, 2012
1:15 pm

our top 10 prospects are now pretty mediocre, I’m willing to bet you would not get him for less, why would thay do that?

Arkansas Transplant

September 18th, 2012
1:15 pm

your reward/advantage is home court.

I know you mean home field but it would make it much more interesting if they made them play a game of b-ball to determine who’s going to advance.

nolie

September 18th, 2012
1:16 pm

there still is no reason to, I disagree with your opinion and I’m pretty sure that most any professional would also

Efrim

September 18th, 2012
1:16 pm

I don’t really mind if Heyward is going to strikeout 120-140 times in a season.

I’d just rather not see 160+. Really tough to hit for a high batting average that way. I had hope that Heyward was going to hit at least .280 this year, but that probably isn;t happening

George_George

September 18th, 2012
1:16 pm

nolie

September 18th, 2012
1:13 pm
nobody plays to lose
*************************
TRUE WORDS nolie.

Capt.Mudd

September 18th, 2012
1:20 pm

@BrianSC…………..You make a compelling analysis for why we can’t, try one for how we might; is it that far-fetched to think the Nats could go minus 3-4 wins re: 8-8 ref in your post and, perhaps we go 13-1?

VaBravesFan

September 18th, 2012
1:20 pm

Alot of ways Wren can go. We have enough money to fill a need or 2 and We also have enough young talent to swing a trade to fill needs. I see Wren doing both. But what is priority? CF? LF? SP? I really don’t see us making a big splash but I see us bringing in a handfull of solid to good players instead of just 1 major addition.

Maybe Bourn’s price has dropped a little with his bad 2nd half, but with so many teams needing a CFer he is gonna get overpayed still. To keep Bourn in ATL we would have to spend over half of our available funds. We are way more likely to look at cheaper options such as Pagan and also the trade market.

Prado gives us flexibility so now Wren can still explore any 3rd base options to go along with OFers. Hell Prado even gives us the ability to possibly kick the tires on trading Uggla (I know Longshot)

Overall we can go alot of different ways. Replacing Chipper and Bourn’s impact will be impossible. But with rebound seasons from McCann and Uggla, and a Heyward and Freeman who are only getting better this team can be better regardless of what it looks like on paper.

nolie

September 18th, 2012
1:20 pm

I would be more interested in seeing Jason up his performance significantly against Lefties than keep his Ks lower. course both would be nice….

Brian from SC

September 18th, 2012
1:21 pm

Doing some math. Let’s make some assumptions and see where it gets us.

Let’s say Washington has a 55% chance of winning a divisional playoff in Washington.
Let’s say Atlanta has a 55% chance of winning wild card playoff in Atlanta.
Let’s say Atlanta has a 50% chance of winning the wild card playoff if they just played the divisional playoff.

If the Braves finish tied with Washington, they would have a 72.5% chance of making the NLDS. If they finish behind Washington, it would obviously be 55%.

You can change up the probabilities to suit your thinking.

If Washington has a 60% chance of winning in Washington, Atlanta has a 60% chance of winning the wild card playoff, and the Braves have only a 40% chance of winning a 2nd game in two days, the probabilities shift to:

64% chance of making the NLDS if the Braves finish tied with Washington
60% chance of making the NLDS if the Braves finish behind Washington

So, yeah…being tied looks like the preferable choice. But it is interesting to think about.

Brian from SC

September 18th, 2012
1:22 pm

I disagree with your opinion and I’m pretty sure that most any professional would also

I hadn’t given an opinion on it, until the post I just made at 1:21.

Efrim

September 18th, 2012
1:22 pm

our top 10 prospects are now pretty mediocre

Excited to see how our list nets out. I’ll guess Teheran, Graham, Bethancourt, Sims and Gilmartin will be the Top 5 for every list that comes out. The rest is a toss up, with potentials being Ed Salcedo, Alex Wood, Zeke Spruill, Nick Ahmed, Mauricio Cabrera, Jose Peraza, and Matt Lipka.

Would not have any of Terdoslavich, Gattis or Cunningham in there.

nolie

September 18th, 2012
1:23 pm

lets just say that you never know what will happen in any given game so you play to win. anything else is insulting to the players and the game

nolie

September 18th, 2012
1:25 pm

ok proposal/suggestion then, that better ??

TheOnlyBravesFan

September 18th, 2012
1:25 pm

Unless Jason Heyward has fewer than 100 Ks a year, and walks 75 times a year, he’s a bum……

Puma

September 18th, 2012
1:25 pm

I think the one game wildcard sucks too, but the lesson is to win the division. There was not enough of an advantage to winning the division before (or penalty for being WC), not there is. Not sure I like the idea of playing Nats in that first round though.

When you feel sorry for your Braves, just remember the ‘93 Giants.

Brian from SC

September 18th, 2012
1:25 pm

ok proposal/suggestion then, that better ??

Yes.

abeeeewright

September 18th, 2012
1:26 pm

Re … play in roster rules …

Obviously, only need for one SP on the play-in roster. That frees up four roster spots.

Room for lots of RPs and PHs.

Starter gets one AB (say in the second or third inning). Then, PH, RP, PH, RP, PH, RP, …

Wonder if there’s ever been a game where nine pitchers each pitched an inning apiece.

Might not even have to consider using a starter … save him for the NLDS.

Brian from SC

September 18th, 2012
1:28 pm

Might not even have to consider using a starter … save him for the NLDS.

Nah, I’d rather have Medlen for as long as he can take us than Martinez, Gearrin, Durbin, Avilan, etc.

nolie

September 18th, 2012
1:29 pm

good, I’d hate to upset you over word choice

VaBravesFan

September 18th, 2012
1:29 pm

Hopefully Heyward improves each season. Right now he is slugging like crazy. Hopefully he can cut down on his K’s, improve his OBP, and gradually hit LHP better.

His rookie season

623 PAs 277/393/456

2012 Season

598 PAs 273/342/493

Flip Flopped with his approach quite a bit. Less Walks, More K’s, More Power.

TheOnlyBravesFan

September 18th, 2012
1:30 pm

I say start Hanson for the play-in game…. save our good pitchers for the NLDS.

Wait, if we do that, there’d be no NLDS. What was I thinking…. The thought of Hanson starting any game, esp. an important one is revolting

Jeff R

September 18th, 2012
1:30 pm

If the Braves are one game behind Washington on the last day, should they try to lose the last game?

If intent could be proven, the league would have a mini-Black Sox scandal on its hands. Besides, there’s always the Law of Unintended Consequences. You think a loss may help the Braves, but due to imponderables, it may just do the reverse.

Play to win, and move forward with confidence.

Brian from SC

September 18th, 2012
1:32 pm

Yeah…”trying to lose” was probably too strong a thing to say anyway. Maybe something softer like “wouldn’t mind losing so much” would have been better.

nolie

September 18th, 2012
1:34 pm

Besides, there’s always the Law of Unintended Consequences. You think a loss may help the Braves, but due to imponderables, it may just do the reverse….Jeff R

exactly, especially as unpredictable as baseball is compared to most other sports

Jeff R

September 18th, 2012
1:36 pm

Brian from SC, a-okay. This is a blog, not a law school! ;)

Jeff R

September 18th, 2012
1:36 pm

Brian from SC, a-okay. This a blog, not a law school! ;)

Capt.Mudd

September 18th, 2012
1:38 pm

That’s cool stuff there @BrndianSC….good work; and let the waspish wail.

Capt.Mudd

September 18th, 2012
1:47 pm

ncscoots

September 18th, 2012
1:47 pm

would be more interested in seeing Jason up his performance significantly against Lefties than keep his Ks lower.

The latter would surely be a by-product of the former, don’t you think?

TennesseePaul

September 18th, 2012
1:49 pm

cash considerations?

Well, I was responding to your: “What to do with available funds…trade for Gentry” post. Doesn’t really follow if a cash trade isn’t the point.

cricket

September 18th, 2012
1:50 pm

nobody plays to lose

that sometimes depends on the availability of once-in-a-generation talent available in draft

cricket

September 18th, 2012
1:53 pm

TheOnlyBravesFan

September 18th, 2012
1:53 pm

Maybe something softer like “wouldn’t mind losing so much” would have been better.

Phillies had a great year last season, going 102-60. However, September was their worst month record wise. Went 16-14. Around the time they clinched the division, they lost 8 straight. Right after that, they won 1 game over the Mets then swept the Braves.

They proceeded to lose in the NLDS.

Capt.Mudd

September 18th, 2012
1:53 pm

@ncscoots………..The by-product is most desired….cetainly, I get the vibe that JeyHey shows too anxious when facing a good LHP…..I really think he needs to take a deep breath or two, step out of the box, etc.

TennesseePaul

September 18th, 2012
1:53 pm

The latter would surely be a by-product of the former, don’t you think?

Perhaps a little. It isn’t that much of a difference in his K-rate for splits.

TennesseePaul

September 18th, 2012
1:55 pm

I really think he needs to take a deep breath or two, step out of the box

, go back to the dugout and wait for a right handed pitcher.

Jay Dubu

September 18th, 2012
1:56 pm

“Nonetheless, Bourn was never worth signing for the term and dollars figures thrown around on the blog.”

A-Rod, Teixeira, R. Soriano, A. Soriano, Reyes, Crawford, Beckett, Pujols, Howard, etc.

Baseball contracts are decided without the use of real world common sense, so there will be some team willing to contribute to the “Bourn Fund” even if it’s not the Braves. His performance down the stretch will not enable the Brave to sign him at a cheaper price or for a shorter term than market.

Who is his agent again?…Boras, you say! He’ll get his money , and then some.

nolie

September 18th, 2012
1:57 pm

that sometimes depends on the availability of once-in-a-generation talent available in draft…cricket

in baseball that would be kindadumb since any number of once in a generation talents have flopped

nolie

September 18th, 2012
2:00 pm

Can wasps really wail?

Capt.Mudd

September 18th, 2012
2:00 pm

I know…yeah…@TennesseePaul; re: 1:55pm post……..especially on bright sunny afternoons:)

the truth...

September 18th, 2012
2:02 pm

Brian from SC

September 18th, 2012
12:55 pm

Really, would tying the Nationals be any better than finishing behind them?

Either way, you’d have to play one game to get in the NLDS. In one scenario, if you lose, you go home. In the other scenario, if you lose, you play again the next day for the hope of playing for a 3rd straight day in the NLDS.

My guess is that the loser would then be the Wild Card #1 winner and would then play the one game Wild Card game at home?
How would you see either Atlanta oir the Nationals falling behind the #2 Wild Card winner?

nolie

September 18th, 2012
2:03 pm

Jason has actually had some big important hits against lefties, I do not read it as anxious at all.
the splits among lefties are usually though not always more pronounced than among righties

raleighbravefan

September 18th, 2012
2:05 pm

nolie – Depends on whether the “wasps” are insects, or a demographic group.

Brian from SC

September 18th, 2012
2:06 pm

The Braves have dominated the Marlins to a +44 run differential this season. That’s the biggest between any two teams head-to-head.

ATL-MIA +44
ARI-HOU +37
CHW-MIN +36
OAK-BOS +34
SFG-COL +34

Powder Blue

September 18th, 2012
2:07 pm

I say we offer Uggla straight up to the Nats for Harper.

Capt.Mudd

September 18th, 2012
2:08 pm

@Nolieee….re: 2:00pm post

Answer is definitively yes, Nols; you see when the Wasps drop in Premiership—they ‘wail.’ [London Wasps, five time English champion].

nolie

September 18th, 2012
2:09 pm

I’d rather trade him for Trout….

TP

September 18th, 2012
2:10 pm

Surprise the Braves marketing dept has thrown in the towel for the team to win the division.
The Nats are stumbling a bit.

Powder Blue

September 18th, 2012
2:10 pm

nolie, I like how you think.

Brian from SC

September 18th, 2012
2:10 pm

My guess is that the loser would then be the Wild Card #1 winner and would then play the one game Wild Card game at home?

Yes.

How would you see either Atlanta oir the Nationals falling behind the #2 Wild Card winner?

I don’t. I don’t know how you got that from my post.

Puma

September 18th, 2012
2:11 pm

The biggest issue with some of these contracts is the length. Hamilton is clearly the best hitter on the market next year, but he’s 31 and will probably want at least 6 years, but probably 8. Even Chipper, first ballot HOF, slipped as he got past about 35. So best case you’ll end up with a 38 year old making $25 mil a year hitting 280, 20 hrs and 80 RBIs. Not horrible, but not worth $25 mil.

Pujols will be making $30 mil at 41…insane!

Powder Blue

September 18th, 2012
2:13 pm

ncscoots

September 18th, 2012
2:13 pm

Jason has actually had some big important hits against lefties, I do not read it as anxious at all.

Well, he hit lefties pretty well in the minors, maybe he gets back to that next year. Finding that sweet spot between patience and aggression ought to help, regardless of pitchers’ arm-side.

Guy practically rebuilt his swing this year, and it stands to reason he wanted to use the bat once he got right. I know he’s swinging at tons more first pitches than he did as a rookie (or seems that way, anyhow). Kid wants to do damage and I can’t fault him for that, walk-rate notwithstanding.

cricket

September 18th, 2012
2:13 pm

Jason has actually had some big important hits against lefties

thanks a lot nolie, now we have to hear about one more stat – what is a hitter’s BIHAL? ;)

Efrim

September 18th, 2012
2:13 pm

Jason has actually had some big important hits against lefties, I do not read it as anxious at all.
the splits among lefties are usually though not always more pronounced than among righties

HR vs. Bumgarner
2 2B’s vs. Hamels
HR vs. Niese

Yup. Recent memory, those are the ones I can think of.

Powder Blue

September 18th, 2012
2:13 pm

Powder Blue

September 18th, 2012
2:13 pm

Powder Blue

September 18th, 2012
2:13 pm

Efrim

September 18th, 2012
2:15 pm

Since that Sunday Night game vs. the Giants when he hit that 3 run shot off of Bumgarner, he’s been going pretty cold – .238/.274/.400.

Still above .800 for September though, but that cold week cost him a high 800’s OPS in August and he hasn’t gone nuts yet in September.

Capt.Mudd

September 18th, 2012
2:15 pm

@Nolieee…2:03….yes, indeed Jason has had some reat one’s vs. lefties and that’s because he is a guy that can play—anytime, anywhere IMO.

But I think what we’re talking about here are minute personal habits and just fodder for the heart and soul……no big competitive analysis—certainly not in the ‘Joe Morgan’ sense.

Efrim

September 18th, 2012
2:16 pm

20 games, 84 PA’s in that stretch.

phil

September 18th, 2012
2:19 pm

Frankie

September 18th, 2012
12:28 pm

Kimbrel a beast but that slider isn’t as sharp as it’s been most of the year. Still awesome and almost unhittable but snapping off that slider he’s untouchable.
***********
Kimbrel’s just prepping us for his epic October 5th blown save in the wildcard game….

No big deal since we will have had a good, solid season. Winning in the playoffs is unimportant, you know, as we’ve proven countless times since 1991.

phil

September 18th, 2012
2:20 pm

The cornfield tribute to Chipper is indeed pretty sweet….

I do feel for the sacrificed corn, however.

Efrim

September 18th, 2012
2:20 pm

Hah! Both Heyward and Freeman at .878 since June 19th. Gotta love it.

ncscoots

September 18th, 2012
2:23 pm

Kimbrel a beast but that slider isn’t as sharp as it’s been most of the year

You mean instead of totally unhittable, it’s only nearly unhittable?

I think you gotta be really searching deep for problems, if the depth on Kimbrel’s slider is what comes to mind. :-)

Efrim

September 18th, 2012
2:24 pm

Hoping for at least a 9-5 finish to the season to end at 94-68. That’ll give the Braves 360 wins over the last four seasons – average of 90 wins a year.

And, ya know, if they lose the coin flip game, they’ll of only played in one….ONE playoff series in four seasons despite a 360-288 record.

As Skip would say, “that’ll drive a man to drink”.

Capt.Mudd

September 18th, 2012
2:25 pm

There’s the ice creme truck….Mommy left me dimes……I go now! Yum!
It’s all goo!

the truth...

September 18th, 2012
2:25 pm

Brian from Sc

How would you see either Atlanta oir the Nationals falling behind the #2 Wild Card winner?

I don’t. I don’t know how you got that from my post.

didn’t your post say something like “one team goes home…..” ??????

….that’s what I got from it, maybe I missed something which does happen a bit more these days in my life…

the truth...

September 18th, 2012
2:29 pm

Brian from SC

Here’s how I came up with it:

Brian from SC

September 18th, 2012
12:55 pm

Really, would tying the Nationals be any better than finishing behind them?

Either way, you’d have to play one game to get in the NLDS. In one scenario, if you lose, you go home. In the other scenario, if you lose, you play again the next day for the hope of playing for a 3rd straight day in the NLDS.

Brian from SC

September 18th, 2012
2:29 pm

the truth…

Maybe I said it wrong in the post, but what I meant was that in the scenario of the Braves finishing behind Washington, one loss (in the wild card playoff) would send them home. If the Braves finish tied with Washington, they can lose a game and still live on til tomorrow.

Venice Jim

September 18th, 2012
2:34 pm

Weather looking questionable for the Nationals today…

phil

September 18th, 2012
2:36 pm

Until Gonzalez is canned, regular winning isn’t in our cards….

ncscoots

September 18th, 2012
2:38 pm

Weather looking questionable for the Nationals today…

Good. Make ‘em play double-headers the rest of the way, as far as I’m concerned.

Arkansas Transplant

September 18th, 2012
2:44 pm

Well, I was responding to your: “What to do with available funds…trade for Gentry” post. Doesn’t really follow if a cash trade isn’t the point.

available funds = limited monetary funds, budget restraints, funds required to retain other players currently on roster, contract extensions, arb hearings, contract options.. etc..etc..

Gentry is both budget friendly and would come at a lower cost than any of the forementioned options, outside of Cunningham.

Jay Dubu

September 18th, 2012
2:46 pm

“Unless Jason Heyward has fewer than 100 Ks a year, and walks 75 times a year, he’s a bum……”

Of the top 20 HR hitters in the NL, (Heyward is tied for 11th), not one of them meet this criteria, and of the top 20 in the AL, 3 could possibly do it, but only of of them has a realistic chance.

abeeeewright

September 18th, 2012
2:48 pm

Based on match-ups, you might have something crazy like …
1st inning: Martinez
2nd inning: Martinez
3rd inning: Avilan
4th inning: Gearrin
5th inning: Venters
6th inning: Moylan
7th inning: Durbin
8th inning: O’Flaherty
9th inning: Kimbrel

Murph

September 18th, 2012
2:50 pm

I don’t want Martinez anywhere near the mound during the WC game.

Murph

September 18th, 2012
2:50 pm

David O'Brien

September 18th, 2012
2:52 pm

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