I think Delgado gained significant major league experience in his stretch with the Braves this season. I think Delgado is right on the cusp of being a productive major league starting pitcher.
Tehran, despite a lackluster season, is still a highly regarded prospect.
Returns for either or both in trades need to be excellent.
WOW, credit for next year does not seem fair [ what if team is really bad next year and you don't want to go to games?] I thought they had to refund.
George, I can only speak from what I experienced during the 2010 post season. There was a way to receive a refund, but it involved contacting a Braves representative to facilitate surrendering the unused tickets and paying more convenience charges. So, yes, you CAN get a refund, but they try to make it as painful as possible to discourage it and ensure they pre-sell tickets to the upcoming season.
Is the Braves’ offense any more inconsistent than many other teams in the National League? If so, is their offensive inconsistency more troubling than other teams’ inconsistencies in other areas?
The Braves have been consistent enough, as a team, throughout the season to have the 3rd best record and probably the 2nd or 3rd best team in the National League throughout 2012.
I see nothing to indicate the Braves are less likely to succeed in the playoffs than Washington or maybe Cincinnati. And, as Jeff commented, who knows about a one-game playoff? Some team like the Nationals could lose one game to a team like the Astros. So we shouldn’t let any sort of trends indicate what might happen in one game.
If anything, the Braves might be in better shape that most teams in a one-game playoff, depending on who starts that game, because they are one of the better teams in the league at preventing runs.
It’s pretty funny that people are actually pretending any offensive deficiencies will necessarily mean anything in a one-game playoff.
The Houston Astros this year beat the Dodgers in a game started by Clayton Kershaw, they beat the Brewers in a game started by Greinke, they’ve scored their winning run off of Aroldis Chapman.
Does anyone really want to make serious predictions about one game based on something like a perceived inconsistency on offense?
As far as the playoffs as a whole, the Braves aren’t going to win because of their offense. They haven’t won in the regular season because of offense. Their OPS+ is 11th in the league. If they win in the postseason, it will probably be the same way they’ve won in the regular season: with run prevention. They are 3rd in the league in ERA+.
I’m more concerned right now about the Braves’ offense’s impact in securing a playoff spot than I am should the Braves make it to the post season. Pitching can be a huge decider in one game or a short series.
Brava,
Yes, you can get a full refund if the games are not played. You have the option to apply it to next season, it’s your choice. I’m basing this on what happened last year & the ticket sales people were fabulous.
“2 wildcards is the biggest (Exepletive) scam ever. We will probably finish 7 games better than the next wildcard and end up losing the 1 game playoff. This is BS. Our team is built to play series not 1 game. Even the Astros can beat the Nationals in a 1 game playoff.”
Perfectly Said, I have been Btching abt the same thing since May!
“George, it was a weird game. Hopefully, we don’t have any more like that one. Watching it gave me a sense that the Brewers were pre-ordained to win it. I know that’s silly, but that’s how it looked.”
Did You watch It All?
I Turned It off afterwe gave up the Bases Loaded Double and started watching Monday Night Football
Miller Park has been a house of horrors for the Braves since 2001
“T, I always watch the entire game, no matter how awful it is.”
You are Better than Me, I don’t have the patience… It gets bad during this time of the year, to where I want to go and Kick the TV, I have to resort to just turning it off…
And everytime we hit with RISP and no outs, I change the channel, its too rough to watch K’s and Pop ups during close games this time of the year
shaun is right that the braves will live and die by their pitching and defense. luckily, simmons is back, and medlen has emerged. i like medlen for that one game playoff, personally.
You know how you avoid the 1 game playoff? Earn it by winning the division.
Yes. Or we could ask God to dig up the entire city of Atlanta and move it to the west coast so that the Braves can play in the NL West.
Because clearly the Giants or Dodgers have earned essentially a higher playoff seed that the Braves by being on the west coast instead of the east. They’ve earned their geographic location and no one can take that away from them!
Minor has been superb for Atlanta – his development has been huge for the Braves this year and huge for our future rotation plans. Granted everyone should have taken Mike trout, but still a darn good draft pick for the Braves
quit whining and man up here for the love of fredi gonzalez. get in the WC game, win the damn thing. i hope it’s the cardinals. payback, i know i will be in attendance that night or day(Oct 5th)
shaun, i like divisions because its kind of fun to have the races within the race, but you are so right about it being unfair to good teams in other divisions. maybe it would be worth trying it for a few seasons, just having the top 4 (or 5, the way they are doing it this year) teams make it. if they did it this way, the braves would be #3, set to play the reds in the first round.
Do the Braves get either Glavine or Smoltz to work with some of our young pitchers? It would be great for Smoltz to work a little with Beachy (when healthy), Delgado and teheran and for Glavine to work with Minor and Gilmartin as well as Maholm. Love to get Maddux back as a guest instructor in spring training as well.
We have Hall of Famers that still work for or with the organization. Take advantage of their expertise. I think they have the street cred to get the kids attention
Efrim, good point. The Rays may be one of the top 2-3 teams in all of the majors. They earned that position. But the White Sox or Tigers could very well earn a higher seed in the playoffs, essentially, because of where Chicago is and where Detroit is in terms of geography.
I’m sorry but I don’t consider where a team is located geographically as an accomplishment worth praising and therefore it being a major factor in playoff seeding.
There will probably be 5 teams in the AL and 3 or 4 playoff teams that are better than the White Sox and Tigers in 2012. Yet the White Sox or Tigers will get the bye in the one-game round over superior teams. If the Orioles don’t make the playoffs, the White Sox or Tigers will be the worst team in the AL playoffs. Yet, they get rewarded instead of quite possibly one of the top 2-3 teams in the league.
Fortunately, they don’t put OPS+ in the box score. They do, however, put runs scored, and the Braves are 5th in the league in that department. Even with the lackluster RISP stats of recent days.
You can overthink this stuff.
The Braves’ pitching is solid, but not dominant. The depth of their playoff run will depend more on the offense playing to their potential than the pitching exceeding their potential.
Tomahawkin – I haven’t watched wrestling in about 10 years, but I’ve always been a big Jerry Lawler fan. I grew up in Memphis and rememeber watching his Saturday morning “rasslin” show with my dad
DAP, the problem is that with 3 divisions, there is a good chance a division winner is going to be worse than a wild card.
MLB should have no divisions; or they should have two divisions, the two division winners and first wild card getting first-round byes, and the two worst wild cards playing the one-game playoff.
Wha??? We were leading the WC quite comfortably thru mid-september…
TOBF, by the time the tickets went on sale, it was pretty obvious to me the Braves were in a tailspin. I was of the mindset that, even if they did manage to eek in by one game, they weren’t advancing. To put it another way, when Alex Gonzalez is your best hitter, you have serious deficiencies.
And everytime we hit with RISP and no outs, I change the channel, its too rough to watch K’s and Pop ups during close games this time of the year
T, I have a much better feeling this season than last. Would I be happier if the offense was clicking on all cylinders? Of course, but we are winning games at a good clip, even if it’s sometimes ugly.
ncscoots, but purely looking at runs scored doesn’t tell the whole story because there are certain ballparks where it’s easier or harder to score runs.
The Padres and the Giants don’t have impressive runs scored totals or per-game averages, especially the Padres. But they are good offensive clubs. They just don’t score as many runs as other clubs because of the offensive environments in which they’ve played.
you just have to think this possibly could be a different year from past years. i mean, the whole season i’ve felt this team will frustrate the hell out of ya and almost push you towards football exclusivey….. BUT…. not so. something is happening and the braves have 3 weeks to figure it out. whether that’s mccann and uggla just getting stupid lucky or good or both, or medlen just continuing being lights out and huddy finding his groove. it’s playing out for something big. WC game is going to be awesome. i can’t wait to be part of that atmosphere. oh yeah, #10 is hanging them up. this is babe ruth going to the boston braves, chipper will leave the game and this team with a special feeling. may not go to the WS, but this team goes to the NLCS i believe. we win that wildcard game
purely looking at runs scored doesn’t tell the whole story
Who said I was looking for “the whole story”? You asserted a single opinion on the depth of a potential Braves’ playoff run, and buttressed it with a single stat that is largely irrelevant to the stated premise. I merely refuted it with a stat that is largely more relevant to the discussion.
The kindred workers have always had a high degree of spirituality……@ncscoot; but you know I couldn’t remain positive (high spirited) last night when JV wheeled and dealt us that blow.
The Brewers starter tonight, Marco Estrada has been average for the year, but he’s done better since August. Pitches well against righties, so hope we stay lefty heavy tonight. He throws strikes, doesn’t walk many, and was prone to give up the gopher ball early. He’s gotten better as of late.
Going back to July 30, he’s put up a 3.20 ERA in 8 starts, allowing just 10 Walks, and K’ing 44. Averaging 5.2 Innings a start. Just 2 HR allowed during this 8 game stretch. Thrown 68% of his pitches for strikes as well.
In 66 PAs against this guy, Braves hitters have combined for a .274/.308/.403/.711 line, with BMac and Prado leading the way against him (combined 9-18).
doubters on this board should have been convinced this team is resilient many times over the course of the season. winning the last 2 in SF after looking horrific the two games prior(for two weeks actually) pointed towards better times. thought the whole september swoon talk was friggin laughable and just obtuse
I hollared early this season about FREDI running MINOR out there every 5 days to get beat up on. Well I was WRONG, MINOR has developed into a fine pitcher. Now it seems MEDLEN, HUDSON, MINOR and pray for rain.
Who said I was looking for “the whole story”? You asserted a single opinion on the depth of a potential Braves’ playoff run, and buttressed it with a single stat that is largely irrelevant to the stated premise. I merely refuted it with a stat that is largely more relevant to the discussion.
ncscoots, I simply stated that it’s likely the Braves will win in the postseason more with run prevention more so than with run production, because they have been one of the better teams in the league at run prevention but haven’t been all that good at run production, at least once we factor in ballparks.
You attempted to refute my assertion that the Braves haven’t been all that good an offensive club by pointing to their runs scored, which doesn’t take ballparks into account and therefore doesn’t really tell us how good an offensive club they’ve been compared to other teams in the NL.
but you know I couldn’t remain positive (high spirited) last night when JV wheeled and dealt us that blow.
Hard for me too… that was a dumb play. Thankfully, we haven’t made many of those this year. That was just an aberration.
Scouting report on Estrada: Estrada is an unheralded career minor leaguer from Long Beach State. </bHis solid minor league ERAs seem to defy his so-so stuff and mediocre ratios. Estrada throws a moving fastball at speeds of 88-92 mph, a straight changeup between 75-79mph, a curveball at 77-82mph, and a cutter at 88-89mph
Unheralded minor leaguer… yet he’s outperformed Hanson in most every category but innings pitched and starts (Estrada has been used as a reliever regularly) *sigh*
but you know I couldn’t remain positive (high spirited) last night when JV wheeled and dealt us that blow.
Major suckage, that’s true. Can’t deny it. But no use wallowing in it, either. Baseball is about redemption, and you can’t have redemption without failure. Strap up today and get after it again.
Sorry I couldn’t answer your question yesterday — I wasn’t online again until now.
Your question about where the data regarding relievers comes from is entirely fair. I’d recommend a book called, interestingly, “The Book,” by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin. It basically takes up the question of the huge number of instances in which traditional baseball lore (a.k.a. “going by the book”) says to do X, and crunches the numbers to see whether X is in fact the choice with the greatest possibility of success or whether, in fact, you might actually be better off doing Y or Z. The chapter which discusses how best to use relievers is Chapter 8, “Leveraging Relievers.”
It’s available at Amazon and, I’m sure, a lot of other book retail sites as well. It’s incredibly illuminating and I highly recommend it.
ncscoots, ask the Padres how relevant their ballpark is to their runs scored total. They are 6th in runs scored on the road. They are 14th in runs scored on the road. That’s a pretty drastic difference. Do you actually think they become an entirely different offensive club on the road versus at home or do you think it’s the environments that affect their runs scored?
@ncscoots………..thanks for understanding and suggesting the pragmatic; ‘turn the page!’ Now moving on today…….I have ‘em strapped up that’s for sure, however, I have adopted my position on the couch and am having trouble getting out to weed eat and mow. And with the fans expecting results, I have no choice but to get up and hit it with intrepid vigor….if not, I won’t be retained next year and doubt there will be any ‘takers.’ Contract years are tough…..but I’m gonna do it—thanks Scoots!!!
Unheralded minor leaguer… yet he’s outperformed Hanson in most every category but innings pitched and starts (Estrada has been used as a reliever regularly) *sigh*
For the last 2 years combined…. Forgot to add that
I’d recommend a book called, interestingly, “The Book,” by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin.
Got a first edition, and I’ve read the words off the page, practically. It is not without its merits, but it is definitely not the bible some think it is, in neither methodologies nor conclusions. I thought that perhaps you might have had some new information of which I was unaware, is all.
Relievers are up and down and completely random from year to year. No one should have expected a repeat performance from Venters, but of course we figured he’d be better than this still. Went from elite setup man to just a solid middle reliever. Everyone should expect various production year to year unless your say Craig Kimbrel.
ncscoots and SeATLite, not to jump in, but certainly, at the very least, “The Book” suggests that current managers focus too much on getting certain relievers saves. Just because “The Book” isn’t “the bible” (as ncscoots put it), doesn’t mean this point is negated.
On the other hand, if you’re comparing him to relievers as a whole, I think it would be hard to characterize him as a “failure”.
Saying his season has been full of failure and calling him a failure are two very different things IMO.
Venters has not been all that good this season. I don’t know if that’s really up to much debate. Is he the bottom of the barrel as far as relievers go? No. But do you honestly feel comfortable with him getting the ball in a do-or-die situation right now? I don’t.
ncscoots, I agree — no authority is sacrosanct, especially when you’re talking about baseball strategy. I know I’ve seen other discussions of the subject that might contain information you haven’t seen; I just don’t have them on the bookshelf by my desk like I do that one. I’ll see what I can track down.
Not sure if I’d say that current managers are trying to get certain relievers saves. More correctly, I’d say that managers in general seem to have a fairly unwavering way of using closers in a tightly defined manner.
do your homework people. venter’s prior to last night had given up a run one other appearance since july 4th.
During that same time span he’s also only had 3 appearances where he didn’t give up a hit or a walk. 3 out of 19 appearances since July 4th where he managed to get out of an inning 1-2-3.
Durbin has had 13 1-2-3 innings over the same period. Hell, even Martinez has had 6.
DS1, fair enough. Managers may not be using their bullpens in such a way to get relievers saves, per se, on a conscious level. But it’s hard to imagine bullpen usage being the same if the save rule did not exist. Maybe it’s not that managers have saves or the save rule in mind, but more that the save rule has created this need to assign the closer’s role to a specific reliever and that is what has affected bullpen usage.
I appreciate that, but you needn’t bother. At this point, I doubt that there is new data available that would be so utterly different from what I’ve seen over the years.
You seem to be a reasonable man, however. At least, today, LOL.
Purely a tribute to the work Venters has been doing as of late. I’m not overly concerned with a reliever allowing a runner from time to time. But Durbin still scares the heck out of me every time he takes the mound. I guess I am still gun shy from April.
Plus, JV signed a baseball for me at the April game I attended with tiger and his family. That’s gotta count for something doesn’t it?
During that same time span he’s also only had 3 appearances where he didn’t give up a hit or a walk. 3 out of 19 appearances since July 4th where he managed to get out of an inning 1-2-3.
Durbin has had 13 1-2-3 innings over the same period. Hell, even Martinez has had 6.
so what. he’s still pitched well the last two months and much better than obviously earlier this season prior to being DL’d. love a 1,2,3 shutdown inning but not many kimbrel’s out there. venters is fine.
Brewers have gotten some real good performance from Mike Fiers and Marco Estrada. Gallardo as usual. Would love to see some home runs from our side. Seems as if we’ve been lacking in that area lately, although it could just be me.
Would be nice to see Venters back to his dominant self so we have the option of trading EOF this winter. Doesn’t look like that is the case though, but it’s okay, a deep bullpen is definitely a nice to have.
Before last nights game, Chad Durbin’s previous 54 appearances since May 11th – 43 IP, 30 hits, 9 ER, 17 BB’s, 36 K’s, 4 HR allowed, .199/.278/.325 oppo. slash line, 1.88 ERA.
He was a nice find by Wren. But his spot will be the one needing upgrade/change into 2013. Need a RH high leverage reliever to replace Medlen(and what Vizcaino would of been). I think Martinez, Avilan and Gearrin could slot in as the 5-6-7 spots as Kimbrel, O’Flaherty, Venters file in their usual 1-2-3 slots.
982 comments Add your comment
Efrim
September 11th, 2012
12:19 pm
What about Tommy LaStella? I thought he was most likely to become our future 2B?
He played 2nd for High-A Lynchburg as a 23 year old this year – doesn’t mean he can play 2nd for a major league club trying to win 90+ games.
Efrim
September 11th, 2012
12:21 pm
But most teams would be wise to not value him the same way as some of the larger-budget teams.
He makes a good bit of sense for the Giants, Phillies, Nationals, and Rangers(if they lose Hamilton).
Jeff R
September 11th, 2012
12:22 pm
I think Delgado gained significant major league experience in his stretch with the Braves this season. I think Delgado is right on the cusp of being a productive major league starting pitcher.
Tehran, despite a lackluster season, is still a highly regarded prospect.
Returns for either or both in trades need to be excellent.
Jeff R
September 11th, 2012
12:23 pm
What about Tommy LaStella? I thought he was most likely to become our future 2B?
Who’s the better talent with the higher projection, LaStella or Ahmed?
I don’t know.
Brava
September 11th, 2012
12:27 pm
WOW, credit for next year does not seem fair [ what if team is really bad next year and you don't want to go to games?] I thought they had to refund.
George, I can only speak from what I experienced during the 2010 post season. There was a way to receive a refund, but it involved contacting a Braves representative to facilitate surrendering the unused tickets and paying more convenience charges. So, yes, you CAN get a refund, but they try to make it as painful as possible to discourage it and ensure they pre-sell tickets to the upcoming season.
Shaun
September 11th, 2012
12:28 pm
Is the Braves’ offense any more inconsistent than many other teams in the National League? If so, is their offensive inconsistency more troubling than other teams’ inconsistencies in other areas?
The Braves have been consistent enough, as a team, throughout the season to have the 3rd best record and probably the 2nd or 3rd best team in the National League throughout 2012.
I see nothing to indicate the Braves are less likely to succeed in the playoffs than Washington or maybe Cincinnati. And, as Jeff commented, who knows about a one-game playoff? Some team like the Nationals could lose one game to a team like the Astros. So we shouldn’t let any sort of trends indicate what might happen in one game.
If anything, the Braves might be in better shape that most teams in a one-game playoff, depending on who starts that game, because they are one of the better teams in the league at preventing runs.
DAP
September 11th, 2012
12:28 pm
Or Nick Ahmed, future Braves’ second baseman?
What about Tommy LaStella? I thought he was most likely to become our future 2B?
either way, its gonna be pretty far in the future. dan uggla is signed through 2015. he’ll play it out in atlanta.
Jeff R
September 11th, 2012
12:35 pm
DAP… Unless Uggla gets “Lowe-ed” just before 2015.
Shaun
September 11th, 2012
12:37 pm
It’s pretty funny that people are actually pretending any offensive deficiencies will necessarily mean anything in a one-game playoff.
The Houston Astros this year beat the Dodgers in a game started by Clayton Kershaw, they beat the Brewers in a game started by Greinke, they’ve scored their winning run off of Aroldis Chapman.
Does anyone really want to make serious predictions about one game based on something like a perceived inconsistency on offense?
As far as the playoffs as a whole, the Braves aren’t going to win because of their offense. They haven’t won in the regular season because of offense. Their OPS+ is 11th in the league. If they win in the postseason, it will probably be the same way they’ve won in the regular season: with run prevention. They are 3rd in the league in ERA+.
Jeff R
September 11th, 2012
12:37 pm
Shaun is correct at 2:28 pm.
I’m more concerned right now about the Braves’ offense’s impact in securing a playoff spot than I am should the Braves make it to the post season. Pitching can be a huge decider in one game or a short series.
jeffrey d
September 11th, 2012
12:40 pm
Shaun is correct at 2:28 pm.
Can’t wait to see what he says!
Jeff R
September 11th, 2012
12:41 pm
Shaun is correct at 2:28 pm.
Can’t wait to see what he says!
Hey, don’t blow my one attempt at foreseeing the future.
diamondlady
September 11th, 2012
12:41 pm
Brava,
Yes, you can get a full refund if the games are not played. You have the option to apply it to next season, it’s your choice. I’m basing this on what happened last year & the ticket sales people were fabulous.
Tomahawkin
September 11th, 2012
12:42 pm
Veer
September 11th, 2012
11:15 am
“2 wildcards is the biggest (Exepletive) scam ever. We will probably finish 7 games better than the next wildcard and end up losing the 1 game playoff. This is BS. Our team is built to play series not 1 game. Even the Astros can beat the Nationals in a 1 game playoff.”
Perfectly Said, I have been Btching abt the same thing since May!
Brava
September 11th, 2012
12:45 pm
diamondlady, thanks, I didn’t purchase post season tickets last year, for obvious reasons. I hope to not have to worry about a refund, to be honest.
Tomahawkin
September 11th, 2012
12:46 pm
Brava
“George, it was a weird game. Hopefully, we don’t have any more like that one. Watching it gave me a sense that the Brewers were pre-ordained to win it. I know that’s silly, but that’s how it looked.”
Did You watch It All?
I Turned It off afterwe gave up the Bases Loaded Double and started watching Monday Night Football
Miller Park has been a house of horrors for the Braves since 2001
jeffrey d
September 11th, 2012
12:46 pm
You know how you avoid the 1 game playoff? Earn it by winning the division.
Tomahawkin
September 11th, 2012
12:46 pm
Minor gets Screwed again by an inept offense
He should have a .500 W-L record, or Better
Brava
September 11th, 2012
12:47 pm
T, I always watch the entire game, no matter how awful it is.
Oh, and I hate football.
Tomahawkin
September 11th, 2012
12:47 pm
@Jeffrey D
“You know how you avoid the 1 game playoff? Earn it by winning the division.”
Ring The Bell, The Division Race is OVER
Tomahawkin
September 11th, 2012
12:48 pm
FREE MIXXO
Braves are 10-12 since he Got sent to Bozo-land
Brava
September 11th, 2012
12:49 pm
You know how you avoid the 1 game playoff? Earn it by winning the division.
To quote TOBF, “This”.
Tomahawkin
September 11th, 2012
12:53 pm
Brava
“T, I always watch the entire game, no matter how awful it is.”
You are Better than Me, I don’t have the patience… It gets bad during this time of the year, to where I want to go and Kick the TV, I have to resort to just turning it off…
And everytime we hit with RISP and no outs, I change the channel, its too rough to watch K’s and Pop ups during close games this time of the year
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 11th, 2012
12:53 pm
Perfectly Said, I have been Btching abt the same thing since May!
And they’ve changed the format because of it…. oh wait, they didn’t. Just gotta deal with it, dude.
Braves are 10-12 since he Got sent to Bozo-land
Poor Mixxo
he sent himself there. Besides, we’ve had a great September so far, with a 5gm winning streak thrown in.
Ring The Bell, The Division Race is OVER
Not yet… the 1st team WC race is over, but the division isn’t. Give it thru the weekend, then we’ll see.
Efrim
September 11th, 2012
12:54 pm
You know how you avoid the 1 game playoff? Earn it by winning the division.
I’d have serious beef with this statement if I was a Ray or Jay fan…..
George_George
September 11th, 2012
12:54 pm
Brava
September 11th, 2012
12:27 pm
Thanks for explanation.
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 11th, 2012
12:56 pm
You know how you avoid the 1 game playoff? Earn it by winning the division.
Division winners kinda screwed too though. Might be better to be a WC. Get the first 2 Division series games at home!
I didn’t purchase post season tickets last year, for obvious reasons.
Wha??? We were leading the WC quite comfortably thru mid-september…
DAP
September 11th, 2012
12:57 pm
shaun is right that the braves will live and die by their pitching and defense. luckily, simmons is back, and medlen has emerged. i like medlen for that one game playoff, personally.
Shaun
September 11th, 2012
12:58 pm
You know how you avoid the 1 game playoff? Earn it by winning the division.
Yes. Or we could ask God to dig up the entire city of Atlanta and move it to the west coast so that the Braves can play in the NL West.
Because clearly the Giants or Dodgers have earned essentially a higher playoff seed that the Braves by being on the west coast instead of the east. They’ve earned their geographic location and no one can take that away from them!
Tomahawkin
September 11th, 2012
12:59 pm
@Jeffrey D
Saw Ur Post abt The King…
Do you still watch Rasslin?
brian
September 11th, 2012
1:01 pm
Minor has been superb for Atlanta – his development has been huge for the Braves this year and huge for our future rotation plans. Granted everyone should have taken Mike trout, but still a darn good draft pick for the Braves
Tomahawkin
September 11th, 2012
1:01 pm
Not yet… the 1st team WC race is over, but the division isn’t. Give it thru the weekend, then we’ll see.—TOBF
The odds are against us, 2 games on National TV against the Curley W’s….
Bet we drop 2 out of 3
toast
September 11th, 2012
1:03 pm
quit whining and man up here for the love of fredi gonzalez. get in the WC game, win the damn thing. i hope it’s the cardinals. payback, i know i will be in attendance that night or day(Oct 5th)
DAP
September 11th, 2012
1:03 pm
shaun, i like divisions because its kind of fun to have the races within the race, but you are so right about it being unfair to good teams in other divisions. maybe it would be worth trying it for a few seasons, just having the top 4 (or 5, the way they are doing it this year) teams make it. if they did it this way, the braves would be #3, set to play the reds in the first round.
brian
September 11th, 2012
1:06 pm
Do the Braves get either Glavine or Smoltz to work with some of our young pitchers? It would be great for Smoltz to work a little with Beachy (when healthy), Delgado and teheran and for Glavine to work with Minor and Gilmartin as well as Maholm. Love to get Maddux back as a guest instructor in spring training as well.
We have Hall of Famers that still work for or with the organization. Take advantage of their expertise. I think they have the street cred to get the kids attention
Shaun
September 11th, 2012
1:07 pm
Efrim, good point. The Rays may be one of the top 2-3 teams in all of the majors. They earned that position. But the White Sox or Tigers could very well earn a higher seed in the playoffs, essentially, because of where Chicago is and where Detroit is in terms of geography.
I’m sorry but I don’t consider where a team is located geographically as an accomplishment worth praising and therefore it being a major factor in playoff seeding.
There will probably be 5 teams in the AL and 3 or 4 playoff teams that are better than the White Sox and Tigers in 2012. Yet the White Sox or Tigers will get the bye in the one-game round over superior teams. If the Orioles don’t make the playoffs, the White Sox or Tigers will be the worst team in the AL playoffs. Yet, they get rewarded instead of quite possibly one of the top 2-3 teams in the league.
ncscoots
September 11th, 2012
1:08 pm
Fortunately, they don’t put OPS+ in the box score. They do, however, put runs scored, and the Braves are 5th in the league in that department. Even with the lackluster RISP stats of recent days.
You can overthink this stuff.
The Braves’ pitching is solid, but not dominant. The depth of their playoff run will depend more on the offense playing to their potential than the pitching exceeding their potential.
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 11th, 2012
1:11 pm
Bet we drop 2 out of 3 (to the Nats)
I bet we take 2 of 3, or even sweep.
jeffrey d
September 11th, 2012
1:11 pm
Tomahawkin – I haven’t watched wrestling in about 10 years, but I’ve always been a big Jerry Lawler fan. I grew up in Memphis and rememeber watching his Saturday morning “rasslin” show with my dad
Shaun
September 11th, 2012
1:12 pm
DAP, the problem is that with 3 divisions, there is a good chance a division winner is going to be worse than a wild card.
MLB should have no divisions; or they should have two divisions, the two division winners and first wild card getting first-round byes, and the two worst wild cards playing the one-game playoff.
ncscoots
September 11th, 2012
1:12 pm
quit whining and man up here for the love of fredi gonzalez.
I’ve found a kindred spirit here, after all.
Brava
September 11th, 2012
1:13 pm
Wha??? We were leading the WC quite comfortably thru mid-september…
TOBF, by the time the tickets went on sale, it was pretty obvious to me the Braves were in a tailspin. I was of the mindset that, even if they did manage to eek in by one game, they weren’t advancing. To put it another way, when Alex Gonzalez is your best hitter, you have serious deficiencies.
Jeff R
September 11th, 2012
1:14 pm
Not yet… the 1st team WC race is over, but the division isn’t. Give it thru the weekend, then we’ll see.—TOBF
The odds are against us, 2 games on National TV against the Curley W’s….
The odds are against the Braves taking the division, so should they give up?
Bet we drop 2 out of 3 [to the Nats].
I bet the Braves sweep ‘em. Who in the name of Kawakami knows?
Brava
September 11th, 2012
1:14 pm
eke… oh well, it sounded right.
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 11th, 2012
1:18 pm
To put it another way, when Alex Gonzalez is your best hitter, you have serious deficiencies.
True!
Brava
September 11th, 2012
1:18 pm
And everytime we hit with RISP and no outs, I change the channel, its too rough to watch K’s and Pop ups during close games this time of the year
T, I have a much better feeling this season than last. Would I be happier if the offense was clicking on all cylinders? Of course, but we are winning games at a good clip, even if it’s sometimes ugly.
Shaun
September 11th, 2012
1:20 pm
ncscoots, but purely looking at runs scored doesn’t tell the whole story because there are certain ballparks where it’s easier or harder to score runs.
The Padres and the Giants don’t have impressive runs scored totals or per-game averages, especially the Padres. But they are good offensive clubs. They just don’t score as many runs as other clubs because of the offensive environments in which they’ve played.
toast
September 11th, 2012
1:24 pm
you just have to think this possibly could be a different year from past years. i mean, the whole season i’ve felt this team will frustrate the hell out of ya and almost push you towards football exclusivey….. BUT…. not so. something is happening and the braves have 3 weeks to figure it out. whether that’s mccann and uggla just getting stupid lucky or good or both, or medlen just continuing being lights out and huddy finding his groove. it’s playing out for something big. WC game is going to be awesome. i can’t wait to be part of that atmosphere. oh yeah, #10 is hanging them up. this is babe ruth going to the boston braves, chipper will leave the game and this team with a special feeling. may not go to the WS, but this team goes to the NLCS i believe. we win that wildcard game
toast
September 11th, 2012
1:26 pm
guess that should read the babe not going to the braves, but hell u get my drift
ncscoots
September 11th, 2012
1:26 pm
purely looking at runs scored doesn’t tell the whole story
Who said I was looking for “the whole story”? You asserted a single opinion on the depth of a potential Braves’ playoff run, and buttressed it with a single stat that is largely irrelevant to the stated premise. I merely refuted it with a stat that is largely more relevant to the discussion.
Trader Jack
September 11th, 2012
1:28 pm
Shaun
MLB should have no divisions………..
That will happen when pigs fly!
Capt.Mudd
September 11th, 2012
1:28 pm
The kindred workers have always had a high degree of spirituality……@ncscoot; but you know I couldn’t remain positive (high spirited) last night when JV wheeled and dealt us that blow.
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 11th, 2012
1:29 pm
The Brewers starter tonight, Marco Estrada has been average for the year, but he’s done better since August. Pitches well against righties, so hope we stay lefty heavy tonight. He throws strikes, doesn’t walk many, and was prone to give up the gopher ball early. He’s gotten better as of late.
(1.189 WHIP, 8.8 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 1.9 BB/9, 9.5 K/9)
Going back to July 30, he’s put up a 3.20 ERA in 8 starts, allowing just 10 Walks, and K’ing 44. Averaging 5.2 Innings a start. Just 2 HR allowed during this 8 game stretch. Thrown 68% of his pitches for strikes as well.
In 66 PAs against this guy, Braves hitters have combined for a .274/.308/.403/.711 line, with BMac and Prado leading the way against him (combined 9-18).
toast
September 11th, 2012
1:32 pm
last nights game meant NOTHING.
doubters on this board should have been convinced this team is resilient many times over the course of the season. winning the last 2 in SF after looking horrific the two games prior(for two weeks actually) pointed towards better times. thought the whole september swoon talk was friggin laughable and just obtuse
Jeff R
September 11th, 2012
1:33 pm
MLB should have no divisions………..
Ah, the old days. When MLB was for the meat-eaters!
Capt.Mudd
September 11th, 2012
1:36 pm
@Trader Jack……………………”That will happen when Pigs fly.”
The only time I saw pigs in the sky was while I was in attendance at a ’space rock’ concert, yes, it was The Pink Floyd.
George_George
September 11th, 2012
1:36 pm
I hollared early this season about FREDI running MINOR out there every 5 days to get beat up on. Well I was WRONG, MINOR has developed into a fine pitcher. Now it seems MEDLEN, HUDSON, MINOR and pray for rain.
Shaun
September 11th, 2012
1:36 pm
Who said I was looking for “the whole story”? You asserted a single opinion on the depth of a potential Braves’ playoff run, and buttressed it with a single stat that is largely irrelevant to the stated premise. I merely refuted it with a stat that is largely more relevant to the discussion.
ncscoots, I simply stated that it’s likely the Braves will win in the postseason more with run prevention more so than with run production, because they have been one of the better teams in the league at run prevention but haven’t been all that good at run production, at least once we factor in ballparks.
You attempted to refute my assertion that the Braves haven’t been all that good an offensive club by pointing to their runs scored, which doesn’t take ballparks into account and therefore doesn’t really tell us how good an offensive club they’ve been compared to other teams in the NL.
VaBravesFan
September 11th, 2012
1:37 pm
Just having the NL and AL would be great. Top 5 teams from each conference make the playoffs, get rid of the Divisions and so on.
brian
September 11th, 2012
1:37 pm
last night’s game is now meanigless. The only game that matters right now is tonight’s game.
But as we learned last year falling 1 game short of the playoffs – no game is completely meanngless
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 11th, 2012
1:38 pm
but you know I couldn’t remain positive (high spirited) last night when JV wheeled and dealt us that blow.
Hard for me too… that was a dumb play. Thankfully, we haven’t made many of those this year. That was just an aberration.
Scouting report on Estrada:
Estrada is an unheralded career minor leaguer from Long Beach State. </bHis solid minor league ERAs seem to defy his so-so stuff and mediocre ratios. Estrada throws a moving fastball at speeds of 88-92 mph, a straight changeup between 75-79mph, a curveball at 77-82mph, and a cutter at 88-89mph
Unheralded minor leaguer… yet he’s outperformed Hanson in most every category but innings pitched and starts (Estrada has been used as a reliever regularly) *sigh*
Shame that Hanson got hurt
Powder Blue
September 11th, 2012
1:38 pm
So is Hanson a lost cause at this point?
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 11th, 2012
1:39 pm
McFanned
ncscoots
September 11th, 2012
1:40 pm
but you know I couldn’t remain positive (high spirited) last night when JV wheeled and dealt us that blow.
Major suckage, that’s true. Can’t deny it. But no use wallowing in it, either. Baseball is about redemption, and you can’t have redemption without failure. Strap up today and get after it again.
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 11th, 2012
1:41 pm
So is Hanson a lost cause at this point?
Nah, just don’t see him back on the Braves next year… time to move on, we have younger options, who might be better.
Murph
September 11th, 2012
1:42 pm
Baseball is about redemption, and you can’t have redemption without failure.
Venters is due some redemption then, ’cause he’s had a season chock full of failure.
SeATLite
September 11th, 2012
1:46 pm
ncscoots –
Sorry I couldn’t answer your question yesterday — I wasn’t online again until now.
Your question about where the data regarding relievers comes from is entirely fair. I’d recommend a book called, interestingly, “The Book,” by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin. It basically takes up the question of the huge number of instances in which traditional baseball lore (a.k.a. “going by the book”) says to do X, and crunches the numbers to see whether X is in fact the choice with the greatest possibility of success or whether, in fact, you might actually be better off doing Y or Z. The chapter which discusses how best to use relievers is Chapter 8, “Leveraging Relievers.”
It’s available at Amazon and, I’m sure, a lot of other book retail sites as well. It’s incredibly illuminating and I highly recommend it.
Shaun
September 11th, 2012
1:46 pm
ncscoots, ask the Padres how relevant their ballpark is to their runs scored total. They are 6th in runs scored on the road. They are 14th in runs scored on the road. That’s a pretty drastic difference. Do you actually think they become an entirely different offensive club on the road versus at home or do you think it’s the environments that affect their runs scored?
ncscoots
September 11th, 2012
1:46 pm
’cause he’s had a season chock full of failure.
Because he hasn’t been as lethal as the previous two years? If that’s the bar, then you’re correct.
On the other hand, if you’re comparing him to relievers as a whole, I think it would be hard to characterize him as a “failure”.
Capt.Mudd
September 11th, 2012
1:49 pm
@ncscoots………..thanks for understanding and suggesting the pragmatic; ‘turn the page!’ Now moving on today…….I have ‘em strapped up that’s for sure, however, I have adopted my position on the couch and am having trouble getting out to weed eat and mow. And with the fans expecting results, I have no choice but to get up and hit it with intrepid vigor….if not, I won’t be retained next year and doubt there will be any ‘takers.’ Contract years are tough…..but I’m gonna do it—thanks Scoots!!!
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 11th, 2012
1:49 pm
Unheralded minor leaguer… yet he’s outperformed Hanson in most every category but innings pitched and starts (Estrada has been used as a reliever regularly) *sigh*
For the last 2 years combined…. Forgot to add that
toast
September 11th, 2012
1:50 pm
do your homework people. venter’s prior to last night had given up a run one other appearance since july 4th.
ncscoots
September 11th, 2012
1:51 pm
I’d recommend a book called, interestingly, “The Book,” by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin.
Got a first edition, and I’ve read the words off the page, practically. It is not without its merits, but it is definitely not the bible some think it is, in neither methodologies nor conclusions. I thought that perhaps you might have had some new information of which I was unaware, is all.
VaBravesFan
September 11th, 2012
1:52 pm
Relievers are up and down and completely random from year to year. No one should have expected a repeat performance from Venters, but of course we figured he’d be better than this still. Went from elite setup man to just a solid middle reliever. Everyone should expect various production year to year unless your say Craig Kimbrel.
Shaun
September 11th, 2012
1:54 pm
ncscoots and SeATLite, not to jump in, but certainly, at the very least, “The Book” suggests that current managers focus too much on getting certain relievers saves. Just because “The Book” isn’t “the bible” (as ncscoots put it), doesn’t mean this point is negated.
Murph
September 11th, 2012
1:56 pm
On the other hand, if you’re comparing him to relievers as a whole, I think it would be hard to characterize him as a “failure”.
Saying his season has been full of failure and calling him a failure are two very different things IMO.
Venters has not been all that good this season. I don’t know if that’s really up to much debate. Is he the bottom of the barrel as far as relievers go? No. But do you honestly feel comfortable with him getting the ball in a do-or-die situation right now? I don’t.
SeATLite
September 11th, 2012
1:56 pm
ncscoots, I agree — no authority is sacrosanct, especially when you’re talking about baseball strategy. I know I’ve seen other discussions of the subject that might contain information you haven’t seen; I just don’t have them on the bookshelf by my desk like I do that one.
I’ll see what I can track down.
VaBravesFan
September 11th, 2012
1:59 pm
Murph
Yeah, that could be said about every single non-closer in baseball, tho.
DS1
September 11th, 2012
1:59 pm
Shaun
Not sure if I’d say that current managers are trying to get certain relievers saves. More correctly, I’d say that managers in general seem to have a fairly unwavering way of using closers in a tightly defined manner.
Does that make sense?
DS1
September 11th, 2012
2:01 pm
Murph
The way Venters has been pitching the past 2 months, I’d be comfortable with him throwing in any situation almost as much as I would with Kimbrel.
Murph
September 11th, 2012
2:02 pm
do your homework people. venter’s prior to last night had given up a run one other appearance since july 4th.
During that same time span he’s also only had 3 appearances where he didn’t give up a hit or a walk. 3 out of 19 appearances since July 4th where he managed to get out of an inning 1-2-3.
Durbin has had 13 1-2-3 innings over the same period. Hell, even Martinez has had 6.
DS1
September 11th, 2012
2:05 pm
I’m a heckuva lot more comfortable with Venters pitching than I am w/ Durbin or Martinez.
I’d only choose O’Flaherty and Kimbrel over Venters as we speak.
ClarifyShampoo
September 11th, 2012
2:07 pm
do yo ho work cuz!!! We did, that why our wallets don’t look like toast
Shaun
September 11th, 2012
2:08 pm
DS1, fair enough. Managers may not be using their bullpens in such a way to get relievers saves, per se, on a conscious level. But it’s hard to imagine bullpen usage being the same if the save rule did not exist. Maybe it’s not that managers have saves or the save rule in mind, but more that the save rule has created this need to assign the closer’s role to a specific reliever and that is what has affected bullpen usage.
ncscoots
September 11th, 2012
2:09 pm
I’ll see what I can track down.
I appreciate that, but you needn’t bother. At this point, I doubt that there is new data available that would be so utterly different from what I’ve seen over the years.
You seem to be a reasonable man, however. At least, today, LOL.
Murph
September 11th, 2012
2:10 pm
I’d only choose O’Flaherty and Kimbrel over Venters as we speak.
Is that a tribute to Venters or a condemnation of the rest of the bullpen?
chipontheroad
September 11th, 2012
2:15 pm
I think Johnny V would be better with a catcher who could consistantly block his sinker in the dirt
DS1
September 11th, 2012
2:18 pm
Purely a tribute to the work Venters has been doing as of late. I’m not overly concerned with a reliever allowing a runner from time to time. But Durbin still scares the heck out of me every time he takes the mound. I guess I am still gun shy from April.
Plus, JV signed a baseball for me at the April game I attended with tiger and his family. That’s gotta count for something doesn’t it?
Gotta hit the road folks.
Bo Graves!
toast
September 11th, 2012
2:18 pm
During that same time span he’s also only had 3 appearances where he didn’t give up a hit or a walk. 3 out of 19 appearances since July 4th where he managed to get out of an inning 1-2-3.
Durbin has had 13 1-2-3 innings over the same period. Hell, even Martinez has had 6.
so what. he’s still pitched well the last two months and much better than obviously earlier this season prior to being DL’d. love a 1,2,3 shutdown inning but not many kimbrel’s out there. venters is fine.
DS1
September 11th, 2012
2:19 pm
chip
Sorry if I sound like a homer here, but what is wrong with Mac’s game behind the plate. He’s better than most. Much better than most.
DS1
September 11th, 2012
2:21 pm
One last parting shot. If Heyward, Bourn and Uggla could cut down on the K’s a bit down the stretch…………..
phil
September 11th, 2012
2:24 pm
Yeah….if…lol
Not likely. If anything, as the noose keeps tightening on the season, expect the K numbers to rise even more.
Efrim
September 11th, 2012
2:26 pm
Brewers have gotten some real good performance from Mike Fiers and Marco Estrada. Gallardo as usual. Would love to see some home runs from our side. Seems as if we’ve been lacking in that area lately, although it could just be me.
Efrim
September 11th, 2012
2:27 pm
Would be nice to see Venters back to his dominant self so we have the option of trading EOF this winter. Doesn’t look like that is the case though, but it’s okay, a deep bullpen is definitely a nice to have.
abeeeewright
September 11th, 2012
2:28 pm
I don’t see how the Padres’ offense or lack thereof has anything to do with the Braves success or lack thereof in the playoffs.
Padres aren’t making the playoffs.
ncscoots
September 11th, 2012
2:29 pm
Not likely. If anything, as the noose keeps tightening on the season, expect the K numbers to rise even more.
phil has thrown away his spoon and gone IV on his bowl of sad today.
Efrim
September 11th, 2012
2:33 pm
Before last nights game, Chad Durbin’s previous 54 appearances since May 11th – 43 IP, 30 hits, 9 ER, 17 BB’s, 36 K’s, 4 HR allowed, .199/.278/.325 oppo. slash line, 1.88 ERA.
He was a nice find by Wren. But his spot will be the one needing upgrade/change into 2013. Need a RH high leverage reliever to replace Medlen(and what Vizcaino would of been). I think Martinez, Avilan and Gearrin could slot in as the 5-6-7 spots as Kimbrel, O’Flaherty, Venters file in their usual 1-2-3 slots.
phil
September 11th, 2012
2:34 pm
Oh, I tossed that spoon back in April! lol
ncscoots
September 11th, 2012
2:34 pm
Need a RH high leverage reliever to replace Medlen(and what Vizcaino would of been).
Throw Graham into the fire. What the heck.
phil
September 11th, 2012
2:35 pm
I haven’t noticed much concern on here from ACE and George George about DOB’s latest time off.
What gives?