MLB Stat of the Day @MLBStatoftheDay
Brian McCann and Johnny Bench are only 2 catchers in history to have at least six 20-homer seasons through their age-28 season.
They need some starting pitching and another middle of the order bat
Yeah. No reason to trade Chase for that. They’d be dumping a middle of the order bat for a middle of the order bat. I just don’t see them trading him. It’d make no sense. They help they seek could be found through FA or other trades not involving Chase.
love to see McCann getting it together. Maybe he is responding to the cortisone injection. I cannot remember a power drought like that from McCann before.
Since July 23rd, a span of 46 games, the Braves have a 2.55 team ERA. That’s by far the best in the NL over that span, over the Phillies (3.22) and Nationals (3.46).
TP, yeah that’s why I think we should target him for CF. He’d be under control for a while, he hits lefties quite well, has good speed and defense and may come at a low cost.
Hillbilly: No doubt. Wonder if the bride and groom will do a song together, or each do one for the other? The Rev. Todd Snider? Gotta love it. Jason and Amanda live in Nashville now, and Todd Snider has for a long time.
Since July 23rd, a span of 46 games, the Braves have a 2.55 team ERA. That’s by far the best in the NL over that span, over the Phillies (3.22) and Nationals (3.46).
Meanwhile, innings continue to pile up for the Nats’ bullpen (either the most or second-most in the league, I can’t remember). Sadly, a lot of less-than-6-IP from that staff, TennPaul.
brian, he has 20 homers again. Not really having a power outage. His OBP and Avg are way down for him. Pretty much everything else across the board is down, but power is still there.
According to coolstandings.com, the Braves have a 99.3% chance of making the playoffs, which, coincidentally, is the same number they had at their highest point last year. Something that would happen 7 times in 1000 years in back-to-back years? I don’t think so.
As of late you mean? The overall season for that team has them averaging over 6IP/GS.
Gonzalez and Zimmerman are right at 6 IP, the other three are under, I believe. Detwiler might be throwing your numbers off, since he has some innings as a reliever this year.
Strasburg and Detwiler are the only two Nats starters averaging less than 6IP/GS, with Strasburg having the lowest rate. But the other three are over 6 on the season.
Beachy and Medlen are the only two Braves starters over 6IP/GS.
Those bullpen innings for the Nats correlates well with extra inning games. They’ve had 9 extra inning games for a total of 17 extra innings just since the all star break. The Braves have had 10 extra inning games all season for a total of 20 extra innings.
I hope the Pirates get the second wild card, but I highly doubt that they will. At this point, they are, at best, the 8th best team in the NL. They have an easier schedule, but they’re not as good.
Now what percentage chance do we have of winning the one game showdown so that we make the actual playoffs? (And no, playing at Turner Field would not be an advantage. We have yet to win a decisive game there unless we did so in 99 or 02, which I frankly can’t recall one way or the other.)
Not nearly as great.
We need to win the division, some how, some way. What are those odds?
Something that would happen 7 times in 1000 years in back-to-back years? I don’t think so.
Agree… which is why some people need to calm down… the WC is ours as long as we keep winning. Last September was an anomaly, historic. It’s not happening again,
By the end of this week, the division will be up for grabs or sealed for Washington. The Braves have to sweep.
It’d also be nice to sweep the Brewers…. I think the Nats are bound to lose 1 game to the Mets, maybe 2. Put those 2 together, and man, it’s gonna be a fun last 2 weeks.
Make no mistake, the biggest weapon the Braves have in their chase for a division crown is the three games they have at home against Washington this weekend.
If the Braves go through that and only pick up one game (by not sweeping), it will be extremely tough to win it.
If the Braves were averaging 6 IP per start, you’d still be ragging on Hanson for not, correct?
Only if people were insisting that he is an “ace.” A team needs the majority of it’s starters to go 6 deep for a good chance at winning it all. It’s chances drop off considerably if none of the starters do that over a full season.
Besides, I don’t hate Hanson like Ef does. Ef has been calling for trading him all season long. He threw in the towel on Hanson back in Spring Training.
“It was one of those situations in the ninth, Roger and I talked it over, they’ve got Davis and Duda coming up, and really you feel comfortable – it’s first time I’ve done it, bringing closer in a tie game on the road – but you feel with the way our pitching matched up later in the game, that that was the game right there. Now does it make my toes tingle doing that? I don’t know, doing that with your closer on the road. He’s pitched four out of five days, you don’t want to run him out there for two innings. But you know what? It worked out. You’ve got enough experience in the bullpen with Moylan and Durbin and that group of guys, that if we do get a lead they can do it.
“But I felt, talking to Roger, that facing the middle of the order in that inning, was important.”
Now what percentage chance do we have of winning the one game showdown so that we make the actual playoffs? (And no, playing at Turner Field would not be an advantage. We have yet to win a decisive game there unless we did so in 99 or 02, which I frankly can’t recall one way or the other.)
Not nearly as great.
We need to win the division, some how, some way. What are those odds?
**********************************************************************
AGREED,I hate that silly one game play-in. T
McCann’s HR/FB% is 11.4%, which is right in line with what he usually does. His poor batting average and slugging percentage can be attributed to the extremely low BABIP. Whether you attribute the low BABIP to bad luck, the shift, or poor quality of contact, I don’t think his pure power has taken a hit, overall this season.
Besides, I don’t hate Hanson like Ef does. Ef has been calling for trading him all season long. He threw in the towel on Hanson back in Spring Training.
I don’t think Efrim can be called out for hating Efrim… that’d have to be me. I’m the one who’s called up untradeable….
George, I wouldn’t be surprised if eventually the wild card round was 2 out of 3 with no off-days. Seems MLB might eventually want to do that because it would make more money and it seems more fair (though that’s still a very short series).
Brian from SC, I suspect McCann’s low BABIP is mostly because of the shoulder issue. But he’s still probably strong enough that when he does get a hold of one, it goes like they always have. There may be a little bit of bad luck involved and the shift may be causing some trouble for him but I think it’s mostly the shoulder injury.
If the Nats finished the season with a .500 clip, then we’d have to win 16 of 21 to tie them. It’s not impossible, but unless they have an epic fail, it’s not likely.
Especially if you disregard the prior less-than-stellar bullpen management that left the manager without a go-to lefty to face Davis and Duda.
I didn’t see anything wrong with the move, simply because Fredo had left himself with no other option. He ended up rolling the tenth with with a ROOGY facing a lefty batter first and then David Wright with the game on the line, but what they hey, it worked out.
Meanwhile, innings continue to pile up for the Nats’ bullpen (either the most or second-most in the league, I can’t remember). Sadly, a lot of less-than-6-IP from that staff, TennPaul.
We NEED to sweep to have a chance at the division… there’s no other way. We dug ourselves this hole, but we can get ourselves half-way out of it… need to keep up the pressure, sweep them in ATL, then hope that they lose another game or two ore than we do from that point on.
Alot of the TOBF drug it seems… it’s rubbing off on Brian now! It’s not that impossible, the series is in ATL, we seem to be streaking and the Nats are slumping. We’ll see what happens.
Remember that even if the Braves sweep, the Nats will hold the tiebreaker over the Braves head-to-head. There is no playoff for the division. If the Braves and Nats have the same record after game 162, the Braves are in the wild card play-in game.
Beginning in the 2012 season, two teams that are tied for a division championship play a tie breaking game even if both teams have already qualified for the postseason (meaning one of them would be awarded a wild card berth).
ncscoots, well, he did bring in Venters to face David and Duda in the 6th and 7th. The time to second-guess was probably the 8th. Perhaps he should have went with a righty with Cedeno, Tejada and Hairston due up, and then brought in O’Flaherty to face Murphy, Wright, Davis and Duda.
However, it was already the 8th and O’Flaherty is one of the top two relievers on the team this season, so I can understand not wanting to go with a lesser reliever in the 8th just to save a lefty for later, because the later match-ups may not have mattered if the lesser reliever blows the game there. I guess you could argue that Kimbrel should have been in in the 8th and O’Flaherty could have faced the tough lefties in the 9th.
But I think you want either Venters, O’Flahery or Kimbrel facing the Murphy-Wright-Davis-Duda part of the order in a tie game, late. And that’s what happened. You had to prevent the winning run right at that moment before you could worry about the match-ups later.
Moylan had to face Valdephin and Murphy, and not the tougher lefties, Davis and Duda. So everything was set up fairly well.
I think it would be really, really tough to lose a tie-breaker game for the division crown, and then turn around and win the wild-card play-in game a day or so later. That would take some beaucoup mental toughness.
scoots He ended up rolling the tenth with with a ROOGY facing a lefty batter first and then David Wright with the game on the line, but what they hey, it worked out.
yeah, despite the result, its not exactly how you want to draw it up, with only a 1 run lead. but, the closer was used in a tie game on the road. thats all shaun cares about!
We keep hearing about Avery being the poster child for shutting Strasburg down.
How about Glavine? At 21 years of age he started 9 games and pitched 50 innings for the Braves. Strasburgesque plan for rookie year.
At 22 he became a rotation regular and pitched 195 innings @ 23 years he pitched 186 then he pitched 4 consecutive 200 plus inning seasons after that. In total he had 17 seasons where he pitched 190 plus innings.
Sure Strasburg is a power pitcher but it seems that Verducci and some in the media and baseball management want to paint it as a rule of thumb that these young guys (power pitchers or not) shouldn’t be throwing 200 innings. They show you Avery and Pryor as their poster children, but there are the Glavines of the world who throw lotza innings and do just fine. Verducci and crew don’t mention those guys because they don’t support their assumption. It’s just like politics. For every claim of fact, there is a polar opposite claim of fact. Even though he claims otherwise, you can’t tell me Boros didn’t have a hand in this. He talks about insurability and going against a doctors advice on innings pitched as voiding insurance…. well the fact is you can find a different doctor to give you different advice on innings pitched. Boros is looking out for Boros and his investment.
I hope the Nats flame out over this. Boros actually told them that if they don’t protect his players, he will advise players not to sign with the Nats. It’s the poster child of the tail wagging the dog. They try to get too cute talking about future investment. How many times might the Nats have this opportunity? I hope never. And in the game of baseball, they may never have this great opportunity again.
It may not make sense to some people but this issue is a primary reason I won’t root for the Nats to advance if the Braves are out of it. They are taking for granted that they will have the tools to go back to the playoffs year after year with Strasburg and crew…. and of course signing Boros clients. (hear the Mikey?) I wouldn’t be so sure.
Especially if both the tie-breaker and the play-in game were in different cities. If you lost at home and then played the next night at home, it would be a way different experience then losing in Washington and flying to Los Angeles for a win-or-go-home game.
My comments on “closer in the tied ninth” is simply that it is one inning out of many. Either match up your relievers against the opposing line-up, regardless of inning OR use a traditional seventh inning guy, set up guy, closer paradigm.
The decision to use Kimbrel in the ninth in a tied game against the heart of the order might or might not make sense in that specific instance. It’s what takes place before and after that is nonsensical.
As others have stated, if you’re planning on matching up, why not use a lesser reliever in the eighth against the bottom of the order, saving your stouter relievers for the higher stress innings against the tougher part of the order?
Not only are the Braves very likely to win the wild card, but I believe the probability is very high that they will win the FIRST wild card. The Braves have less than a 1% chance of not making the playoffs, and probably less than 10% chance being the road team in the play-in game.
In a tie game, the 9th is the first inning in which a team can score against you, and you do not have an opportunity to come back. It’s when it becomes of utmost importance to prevent a run from scoring.
You could take the tie-breaker, play-in, and divisional series to new levels of suckage …
Washington … tie-breaker (Thursday)
Los Angeles … play-in (Friday)
Cincinnati … divisional series opener (Saturday)
Prolly better off sending half the team to one city and the other half to another city to await the outcome.
DAP and ncscoots, well, I would love for the Braves’ bullpen to be full of Kimbrels, O’Flahertys and even Venters. But they only have three of those types of pitchers. Sometimes it’s better to use them to prevent the winning run rather than saving them in hopes that you’ll get a lead that you need to protect.
I’m more concerned with Braves wins than making sure Kimbrel is available for a save, even if a save situation never comes.
Yes, if the closer is the best relief pitcher, he’s available that day, and the heart of the opposing team’s order is coming up in a tied road game, I do want the closer in there. No point saving him for a save situation that is less likely to come if you use an inferior reliever when the game is tied.
As others have stated, if you’re planning on matching up, why not use a lesser reliever in the eighth against the bottom of the order, saving your stouter relievers for the higher stress innings against the tougher part of the order?
Because if the opposing team scores a run in the 8th against a lesser reliever, there may not be a situation later in which a better reliever faces a tougher part of the order.
And contrary to what some of you may believe, the Mets don’t have a lot of really weak spots in the order. David Wright is there only star-level hitter but they actually are a pretty solid offensive club, 5th in the league in OPS+.
843 comments Add your comment
Venice Jim
September 10th, 2012
12:42 pm
MLB Stat of the Day @MLBStatoftheDay
Brian McCann and Johnny Bench are only 2 catchers in history to have at least six 20-homer seasons through their age-28 season.
TennesseePaul
September 10th, 2012
12:43 pm
They need some starting pitching and another middle of the order bat
Yeah. No reason to trade Chase for that. They’d be dumping a middle of the order bat for a middle of the order bat. I just don’t see them trading him. It’d make no sense. They help they seek could be found through FA or other trades not involving Chase.
brian
September 10th, 2012
12:45 pm
love to see McCann getting it together. Maybe he is responding to the cortisone injection. I cannot remember a power drought like that from McCann before.
Brian from SC
September 10th, 2012
12:46 pm
Since July 23rd, a span of 46 games, the Braves have a 2.55 team ERA. That’s by far the best in the NL over that span, over the Phillies (3.22) and Nationals (3.46).
Hillbilly
September 10th, 2012
12:47 pm
@Jason Isbell
I can’t get over the fact that the Reverend Todd Snider has agreed to perform our marriage ceremony. Gonna be a hoot, @amandashires.
DOB, this might be the greatest wedding ceremony of all time for fans of good music.
Arkansas Transplant
September 10th, 2012
12:49 pm
TP, yeah that’s why I think we should target him for CF. He’d be under control for a while, he hits lefties quite well, has good speed and defense and may come at a low cost.
ncscoots
September 10th, 2012
12:53 pm
That was depression for his inability to even match reasonable expectations.
Challenge!…on “reasonable”.
David O'Brien
September 10th, 2012
12:56 pm
Hillbilly: No doubt. Wonder if the bride and groom will do a song together, or each do one for the other? The Rev. Todd Snider? Gotta love it. Jason and Amanda live in Nashville now, and Todd Snider has for a long time.
Arkansas Transplant
September 10th, 2012
12:58 pm
Hillbilly, have you recovered from Saturday yet?
DS1
September 10th, 2012
1:00 pm
As much as I love Chase Headley’s game, the Friars would be nuts to deal him.
ncscoots
September 10th, 2012
1:12 pm
Since July 23rd, a span of 46 games, the Braves have a 2.55 team ERA. That’s by far the best in the NL over that span, over the Phillies (3.22) and Nationals (3.46).
Meanwhile, innings continue to pile up for the Nats’ bullpen (either the most or second-most in the league, I can’t remember). Sadly, a lot of less-than-6-IP from that staff, TennPaul.
ACE
September 10th, 2012
1:13 pm
The Pirates have faded. Now a three team race for two WC spots.
TennesseePaul
September 10th, 2012
1:17 pm
Sadly, a lot of less-than-6-IP from that staff, TennPaul.
As of late you mean? The overall season for that team has them averaging over 6IP/GS. Not so much for the Braves.
ChattTownBrian
September 10th, 2012
1:17 pm
brian, he has 20 homers again. Not really having a power outage. His OBP and Avg are way down for him. Pretty much everything else across the board is down, but power is still there.
phil
September 10th, 2012
1:17 pm
Bring back Hack Wilson…
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 10th, 2012
1:19 pm
The Pirates have faded. Now a three team race for two WC spots.
Almost down to a 2-team race for those 2 spots… if the Cards take care of business, it’ll almost be over.
abeeeewright
September 10th, 2012
1:20 pm
“No, you have to only pick one.”
The Highlander Conundrum.
ChattTownBrian
September 10th, 2012
1:21 pm
Should make the playoffs, but after last time I don’t want to get cocky. We’re just way healthier this time and that pen is way more rested.
brian
September 10th, 2012
1:22 pm
CTB – I was talking about the 3+ week stint where he had no extra base hits. Nada.
Even when his average slumped at times in the past, he still had power. The 3 week power outage with the shoulder injury had/has me worried
Brian from SC
September 10th, 2012
1:23 pm
According to coolstandings.com, the Braves have a 99.3% chance of making the playoffs, which, coincidentally, is the same number they had at their highest point last year. Something that would happen 7 times in 1000 years in back-to-back years? I don’t think so.
raleighbravefan
September 10th, 2012
1:23 pm
3 team race for NL WC …Cards, Dodgers, and Nats
Brian from SC
September 10th, 2012
1:24 pm
coolstandings gives the Braves a 5.8% chance of winning the division.
Brian from SC
September 10th, 2012
1:25 pm
Of the three division leaders in the NL, the Nats actually have the lowest probability of winning theirs, at 94.2%.
abeeeewright
September 10th, 2012
1:25 pm
Based on record and strength of remaining schedule, Pirates get the second WC.
Cards and Dodgers have the toughest remaining schedule.
I know the Pirates stunk against the Cubs, but so did the Braves.
ChattTownBrian
September 10th, 2012
1:27 pm
brian, yeah well the shoulder thing and maybe even some eye problems could be the cause for that. The shoulder for sure.
There’s no reason we shouldn’t make the playoffs, but never underestimate Fredi.
ncscoots
September 10th, 2012
1:27 pm
As of late you mean? The overall season for that team has them averaging over 6IP/GS.
Gonzalez and Zimmerman are right at 6 IP, the other three are under, I believe. Detwiler might be throwing your numbers off, since he has some innings as a reliever this year.
TennesseePaul
September 10th, 2012
1:28 pm
Strasburg and Detwiler are the only two Nats starters averaging less than 6IP/GS, with Strasburg having the lowest rate. But the other three are over 6 on the season.
Beachy and Medlen are the only two Braves starters over 6IP/GS.
Those bullpen innings for the Nats correlates well with extra inning games. They’ve had 9 extra inning games for a total of 17 extra innings just since the all star break. The Braves have had 10 extra inning games all season for a total of 20 extra innings.
abeeeewright
September 10th, 2012
1:28 pm
Actually, a pretty good argument could be made for the Phillies getting the second WC.
I think the Braves stop the Brewers train in the next three games. Cards and Dodgers have a tough schedule. Pirates can’t beat the Cubs.
One Game Play-In between Phils and Nats. I’m calling it here.
Brian from SC
September 10th, 2012
1:28 pm
I hope the Pirates get the second wild card, but I highly doubt that they will. At this point, they are, at best, the 8th best team in the NL. They have an easier schedule, but they’re not as good.
phil
September 10th, 2012
1:29 pm
Great.
Now what percentage chance do we have of winning the one game showdown so that we make the actual playoffs? (And no, playing at Turner Field would not be an advantage. We have yet to win a decisive game there unless we did so in 99 or 02, which I frankly can’t recall one way or the other.)
Not nearly as great.
We need to win the division, some how, some way. What are those odds?
Brava
September 10th, 2012
1:30 pm
3 team race for NL WC …Cards, Dodgers, and Nats
I like the way you think, raleigh.
Brian from SC
September 10th, 2012
1:30 pm
The Pirates are +3 in run differential for the season, which is 9th in the NL. And the Phillies (10th) are catching up fast.
TennesseePaul
September 10th, 2012
1:30 pm
Detwiler might be throwing your numbers off, since he has some innings as a reliever this year.
Nope. A typo threw off my numbers. the 3 and the 4 are right next to each other.
For simplicity scoots, I use the team splits: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=p&team=WSN&year=2012#sprel
phil
September 10th, 2012
1:31 pm
94.2%….
If we do the opposite of last year’s collapse, we win the division easily!!
Brian from SC
September 10th, 2012
1:33 pm
By the end of this week, the division will be up for grabs or sealed for Washington. The Braves have to sweep.
ncscoots
September 10th, 2012
1:33 pm
I use the team splits:
I was kinda looking at each pitcher, instead. If the Braves were averaging 6 IP per start, you’d still be ragging on Hanson for not, correct?
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 10th, 2012
1:35 pm
Something that would happen 7 times in 1000 years in back-to-back years? I don’t think so.
Agree… which is why some people need to calm down… the WC is ours as long as we keep winning. Last September was an anomaly, historic. It’s not happening again,
ncscoots
September 10th, 2012
1:35 pm
The Braves have to sweep.
Probably. But the Mets might rise up like a phoenix and squash the dastardly Nats first, and then we could have some serious fun.
Brian from SC
September 10th, 2012
1:36 pm
The Brewers have the 4th-best home record in the National League, at 41-28. Atlanta needs to find a way to take 2, then sweep Washington.
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 10th, 2012
1:36 pm
By the end of this week, the division will be up for grabs or sealed for Washington. The Braves have to sweep.
It’d also be nice to sweep the Brewers…. I think the Nats are bound to lose 1 game to the Mets, maybe 2. Put those 2 together, and man, it’s gonna be a fun last 2 weeks.
ncscoots
September 10th, 2012
1:38 pm
The Brewers have the 4th-best home record in the National League
But don’t the Braves have at least the third-best road record? Ergo, the Brewers’ home record is trumped.
Brian from SC
September 10th, 2012
1:38 pm
Make no mistake, the biggest weapon the Braves have in their chase for a division crown is the three games they have at home against Washington this weekend.
If the Braves go through that and only pick up one game (by not sweeping), it will be extremely tough to win it.
Brava
September 10th, 2012
1:38 pm
Yikes. The Braves have never faced Wily Peralta and he has a 5.14 ERA. Could be trouble. At least he’s right handed.
TennesseePaul
September 10th, 2012
1:39 pm
If the Braves were averaging 6 IP per start, you’d still be ragging on Hanson for not, correct?
Only if people were insisting that he is an “ace.” A team needs the majority of it’s starters to go 6 deep for a good chance at winning it all. It’s chances drop off considerably if none of the starters do that over a full season.
Besides, I don’t hate Hanson like Ef does. Ef has been calling for trading him all season long. He threw in the towel on Hanson back in Spring Training.
Brian from SC
September 10th, 2012
1:39 pm
Only the Nationals are better on the road. The Braves are 41-28, same as the Brewers’ home mark, ironically.
DAP
September 10th, 2012
1:41 pm
chatttownbrian Pretty much everything else across the board is down, but power is still there.
depends on how you measure power. a .415 slg% is really low for him, and he went all of august without an extra base hit.
Shaun
September 10th, 2012
1:42 pm
This is a beautiful thing:
**FREDI GONZALEZ
On using Kimbrel in 9th in tie game on road
“It was one of those situations in the ninth, Roger and I talked it over, they’ve got Davis and Duda coming up, and really you feel comfortable – it’s first time I’ve done it, bringing closer in a tie game on the road – but you feel with the way our pitching matched up later in the game, that that was the game right there. Now does it make my toes tingle doing that? I don’t know, doing that with your closer on the road. He’s pitched four out of five days, you don’t want to run him out there for two innings. But you know what? It worked out. You’ve got enough experience in the bullpen with Moylan and Durbin and that group of guys, that if we do get a lead they can do it.
“But I felt, talking to Roger, that facing the middle of the order in that inning, was important.”
George_George
September 10th, 2012
1:43 pm
phil
September 10th, 2012
1:29 pm
Great.
Now what percentage chance do we have of winning the one game showdown so that we make the actual playoffs? (And no, playing at Turner Field would not be an advantage. We have yet to win a decisive game there unless we did so in 99 or 02, which I frankly can’t recall one way or the other.)
Not nearly as great.
We need to win the division, some how, some way. What are those odds?
**********************************************************************
AGREED,I hate that silly one game play-in. T
Brian from SC
September 10th, 2012
1:44 pm
McCann’s HR/FB% is 11.4%, which is right in line with what he usually does. His poor batting average and slugging percentage can be attributed to the extremely low BABIP. Whether you attribute the low BABIP to bad luck, the shift, or poor quality of contact, I don’t think his pure power has taken a hit, overall this season.
George_George
September 10th, 2012
1:46 pm
There should only be one WC, if there must be two , then it should be 2 out of 3.
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 10th, 2012
1:46 pm
Besides, I don’t hate Hanson like Ef does. Ef has been calling for trading him all season long. He threw in the towel on Hanson back in Spring Training.
I don’t think Efrim can be called out for hating Efrim… that’d have to be me. I’m the one who’s called up untradeable….
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 10th, 2012
1:47 pm
Wow, what happened there…
I don’t think Efrim can be called out for hating Hanson…. that’d have to be me. I’m the one who has called him untradeable…
Shaun
September 10th, 2012
1:51 pm
George, I wouldn’t be surprised if eventually the wild card round was 2 out of 3 with no off-days. Seems MLB might eventually want to do that because it would make more money and it seems more fair (though that’s still a very short series).
Brian from SC, I suspect McCann’s low BABIP is mostly because of the shoulder issue. But he’s still probably strong enough that when he does get a hold of one, it goes like they always have. There may be a little bit of bad luck involved and the shift may be causing some trouble for him but I think it’s mostly the shoulder injury.
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 10th, 2012
1:52 pm
though, let it be known that I do not hate Tommy Hanson.
DS1
September 10th, 2012
1:54 pm
If the Nats finished the season with a .500 clip, then we’d have to win 16 of 21 to tie them. It’s not impossible, but unless they have an epic fail, it’s not likely.
nolie
September 10th, 2012
1:56 pm
Ef has been down on him cause of his velocity loss, but I don’t think he believes Tommy is worthless
DS1
September 10th, 2012
1:56 pm
But I’ll be pulling for it to happen……
ncscoots
September 10th, 2012
1:56 pm
This is a beautiful thing:
Especially if you disregard the prior less-than-stellar bullpen management that left the manager without a go-to lefty to face Davis and Duda.
I didn’t see anything wrong with the move, simply because Fredo had left himself with no other option. He ended up rolling the tenth with with a ROOGY facing a lefty batter first and then David Wright with the game on the line, but what they hey, it worked out.
cricket
September 10th, 2012
1:59 pm
Meanwhile, innings continue to pile up for the Nats’ bullpen (either the most or second-most in the league, I can’t remember). Sadly, a lot of less-than-6-IP from that staff, TennPaul.
Sadly??
ncscoots
September 10th, 2012
2:00 pm
Sadly??
cricket, just messin’ with TennPaul over his 6-IP-average bar for starters.
Brian from SC
September 10th, 2012
2:00 pm
If the Braves sweep the Nationals and the Nats go 10-9 in the other games, the Braves would have to go 13-5 in their other games.
If the Braves win 2 out of 3 against Washington, and the Nats go 10-9 in their other games, the Braves would have to go 15-3 in their other games.
You see how small the margin for error is.
ncscoots
September 10th, 2012
2:02 pm
You see how small the margin for error is.
But what a great story, when it happens.
nolie
September 10th, 2012
2:02 pm
sweep the Nats? what are y’all smokin’ today?
phil
September 10th, 2012
2:02 pm
Yeah, sadly?
Who gives a rat’s turd if the Nats have an issue or two. That’s supposed to be a GOOD thing….
Brian from SC
September 10th, 2012
2:04 pm
Not saying they will, nolie…saying they must to have a shot at the division.
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 10th, 2012
2:05 pm
We NEED to sweep to have a chance at the division… there’s no other way. We dug ourselves this hole, but we can get ourselves half-way out of it… need to keep up the pressure, sweep them in ATL, then hope that they lose another game or two ore than we do from that point on.
Let’s do this!
nolie
September 10th, 2012
2:05 pm
a coupla others have talked about doig it brian, I was just kidding around
Brian from SC
September 10th, 2012
2:06 pm
Somebody actually asked DOB this on Twitter. Do these people ever watch baseball?
Any chance, with Prado’s stellar D at SS, that Simmons could be tried in LF or take Uggla’s spot at 2B?
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 10th, 2012
2:06 pm
sweep the Nats? what are y’all smokin’ today?
Alot of the TOBF drug it seems… it’s rubbing off on Brian now! It’s not that impossible, the series is in ATL, we seem to be streaking and the Nats are slumping. We’ll see what happens.
ncscoots
September 10th, 2012
2:07 pm
coupla others have talked about doig it brian, I was just kidding around
Hey, until they lose a game this weekend, I’m calling for a sweep, dammit.
Brian from SC
September 10th, 2012
2:07 pm
Remember that even if the Braves sweep, the Nats will hold the tiebreaker over the Braves head-to-head. There is no playoff for the division. If the Braves and Nats have the same record after game 162, the Braves are in the wild card play-in game.
ncscoots
September 10th, 2012
2:10 pm
There is no playoff for the division.
Are you sure? I thought head-to-heads and coin-flips were gone, because of the value accrued to the division winner now.
Brian from SC
September 10th, 2012
2:11 pm
You’re right, scoots…I misinterpreted something I read earlier.
The Nats would hold the tiebreaker for home field in that game.
Sorry, folks.
nolie
September 10th, 2012
2:11 pm
I figger with the Braves history of futility over the years, that we are almost certainly gonna be the team that runs afoul of the new system……
Venice Jim
September 10th, 2012
2:11 pm
Any chance that George will not notice that Carroll is in Milwaukee?
ncscoots
September 10th, 2012
2:12 pm
Here you go:
Beginning in the 2012 season, two teams that are tied for a division championship play a tie breaking game even if both teams have already qualified for the postseason (meaning one of them would be awarded a wild card berth).
ncscoots
September 10th, 2012
2:17 pm
I figger with the Braves history of futility over the years, that we are almost certainly gonna be the team that runs afoul of the new system……
You’ve been breaking bread with phil again, I see, LOL.
TheOnlyBravesFan
September 10th, 2012
2:18 pm
We’ll finish 1 or 2 games ahead of the Nats for the division… no need to worry about that tie-breaking game.
Shaun
September 10th, 2012
2:19 pm
ncscoots, well, he did bring in Venters to face David and Duda in the 6th and 7th. The time to second-guess was probably the 8th. Perhaps he should have went with a righty with Cedeno, Tejada and Hairston due up, and then brought in O’Flaherty to face Murphy, Wright, Davis and Duda.
However, it was already the 8th and O’Flaherty is one of the top two relievers on the team this season, so I can understand not wanting to go with a lesser reliever in the 8th just to save a lefty for later, because the later match-ups may not have mattered if the lesser reliever blows the game there. I guess you could argue that Kimbrel should have been in in the 8th and O’Flaherty could have faced the tough lefties in the 9th.
But I think you want either Venters, O’Flahery or Kimbrel facing the Murphy-Wright-Davis-Duda part of the order in a tie game, late. And that’s what happened. You had to prevent the winning run right at that moment before you could worry about the match-ups later.
Moylan had to face Valdephin and Murphy, and not the tougher lefties, Davis and Duda. So everything was set up fairly well.
CB
September 10th, 2012
2:19 pm
phil probably eats gruel .
nolie
September 10th, 2012
2:20 pm
not a gruel fan myself
ncscoots
September 10th, 2012
2:21 pm
I think it would be really, really tough to lose a tie-breaker game for the division crown, and then turn around and win the wild-card play-in game a day or so later. That would take some beaucoup mental toughness.
DAP
September 10th, 2012
2:25 pm
scoots He ended up rolling the tenth with with a ROOGY facing a lefty batter first and then David Wright with the game on the line, but what they hey, it worked out.
yeah, despite the result, its not exactly how you want to draw it up, with only a 1 run lead. but, the closer was used in a tie game on the road. thats all shaun cares about!
Chickens or Eggs
September 10th, 2012
2:28 pm
We keep hearing about Avery being the poster child for shutting Strasburg down.
How about Glavine? At 21 years of age he started 9 games and pitched 50 innings for the Braves. Strasburgesque plan for rookie year.
At 22 he became a rotation regular and pitched 195 innings @ 23 years he pitched 186 then he pitched 4 consecutive 200 plus inning seasons after that. In total he had 17 seasons where he pitched 190 plus innings.
Sure Strasburg is a power pitcher but it seems that Verducci and some in the media and baseball management want to paint it as a rule of thumb that these young guys (power pitchers or not) shouldn’t be throwing 200 innings. They show you Avery and Pryor as their poster children, but there are the Glavines of the world who throw lotza innings and do just fine. Verducci and crew don’t mention those guys because they don’t support their assumption. It’s just like politics. For every claim of fact, there is a polar opposite claim of fact. Even though he claims otherwise, you can’t tell me Boros didn’t have a hand in this. He talks about insurability and going against a doctors advice on innings pitched as voiding insurance…. well the fact is you can find a different doctor to give you different advice on innings pitched. Boros is looking out for Boros and his investment.
I hope the Nats flame out over this. Boros actually told them that if they don’t protect his players, he will advise players not to sign with the Nats. It’s the poster child of the tail wagging the dog. They try to get too cute talking about future investment. How many times might the Nats have this opportunity? I hope never. And in the game of baseball, they may never have this great opportunity again.
It may not make sense to some people but this issue is a primary reason I won’t root for the Nats to advance if the Braves are out of it. They are taking for granted that they will have the tools to go back to the playoffs year after year with Strasburg and crew…. and of course signing Boros clients. (hear the Mikey?) I wouldn’t be so sure.
ncscoots
September 10th, 2012
2:28 pm
but, the closer was used in a tie game on the road. thats all shaun cares about!
Pseudo-validation is always more important than an actual game outcome.
abeeeewright
September 10th, 2012
2:30 pm
Especially if both the tie-breaker and the play-in game were in different cities. If you lost at home and then played the next night at home, it would be a way different experience then losing in Washington and flying to Los Angeles for a win-or-go-home game.
ncscoots
September 10th, 2012
2:32 pm
Especially if both the tie-breaker and the play-in game were in different cities.
Yeah, all those scenarios are bad, flat-out, and some of them have all-world suckage.
abeeeewright
September 10th, 2012
2:34 pm
My comments on “closer in the tied ninth” is simply that it is one inning out of many. Either match up your relievers against the opposing line-up, regardless of inning OR use a traditional seventh inning guy, set up guy, closer paradigm.
The decision to use Kimbrel in the ninth in a tied game against the heart of the order might or might not make sense in that specific instance. It’s what takes place before and after that is nonsensical.
As others have stated, if you’re planning on matching up, why not use a lesser reliever in the eighth against the bottom of the order, saving your stouter relievers for the higher stress innings against the tougher part of the order?
Brian from SC
September 10th, 2012
2:35 pm
Not only are the Braves very likely to win the wild card, but I believe the probability is very high that they will win the FIRST wild card. The Braves have less than a 1% chance of not making the playoffs, and probably less than 10% chance being the road team in the play-in game.
DAP
September 10th, 2012
2:35 pm
chicken or eggs, except that glavine actually pitched 200 innings in 1987. 150 in the minors, and 50 in the majors.
Brian from SC
September 10th, 2012
2:37 pm
In a tie game, the 9th is the first inning in which a team can score against you, and you do not have an opportunity to come back. It’s when it becomes of utmost importance to prevent a run from scoring.
abeeeewright
September 10th, 2012
2:37 pm
You could take the tie-breaker, play-in, and divisional series to new levels of suckage …
Washington … tie-breaker (Thursday)
Los Angeles … play-in (Friday)
Cincinnati … divisional series opener (Saturday)
Prolly better off sending half the team to one city and the other half to another city to await the outcome.
Capt.Mudd
September 10th, 2012
2:37 pm
@ncscoots……………..”all-world suckage.”
Would that not also be ‘adjacent suckage?’
Shaun
September 10th, 2012
2:38 pm
DAP and ncscoots, well, I would love for the Braves’ bullpen to be full of Kimbrels, O’Flahertys and even Venters. But they only have three of those types of pitchers. Sometimes it’s better to use them to prevent the winning run rather than saving them in hopes that you’ll get a lead that you need to protect.
I’m more concerned with Braves wins than making sure Kimbrel is available for a save, even if a save situation never comes.
Yes, if the closer is the best relief pitcher, he’s available that day, and the heart of the opposing team’s order is coming up in a tied road game, I do want the closer in there. No point saving him for a save situation that is less likely to come if you use an inferior reliever when the game is tied.
Arkansas Transplant
September 10th, 2012
2:38 pm
So we make it to the playoffs as a WC. Who do you want pitching that decisive game?
Brian from SC
September 10th, 2012
2:39 pm
The Braves probably have at least a 95% chance of playing at least one playoff game at home. Go ahead and get yourself a ticket.
ncscoots
September 10th, 2012
2:39 pm
Prolly better off sending half the team to one city and the other half to another city to await the outcome.
Split-squad playoffs. I like it!
Arkansas Transplant
September 10th, 2012
2:40 pm
And you have to love this, no matter who you are.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/10-degrees–as-heat-rises–yankees–joe-girardi-tries-to-avoid-september-meltdown-.html
Capt.Mudd
September 10th, 2012
2:43 pm
Has anyone seen the recent Meds twitter postings : re: “real life action movie?”
Shaun
September 10th, 2012
2:45 pm
As others have stated, if you’re planning on matching up, why not use a lesser reliever in the eighth against the bottom of the order, saving your stouter relievers for the higher stress innings against the tougher part of the order?
Because if the opposing team scores a run in the 8th against a lesser reliever, there may not be a situation later in which a better reliever faces a tougher part of the order.
And contrary to what some of you may believe, the Mets don’t have a lot of really weak spots in the order. David Wright is there only star-level hitter but they actually are a pretty solid offensive club, 5th in the league in OPS+.