Who’s the NL’s best closer? Kimbrel vs. Chapman
Philadelphia – As dominant a year as Braves closer Craig Kimbrel is having, he’s got some stiff competition at the top of the National League.
Cincinnati Reds closer Aroldis Chapman is having a pretty good year of his own. The Cuban defector with the 100 mph fastball had 100 strikeouts to Kimbrel’s 73 entering play Wednesday. And he’d struck out 16.77 per nine innings compared to Kimbrel’s 15.64.
Kimbrel had Chapman beat in ERA (1.29 to 1.34) and opponents’ batting average (.120 to .129). Kimbrel also lead in the most important statistic of all – saves. Kimbrel was 31 of 33 in save opportunities, while Chapman was 25 of 29.
Braves catcher Brian McCann has caught one and faced the other – going 0-for-3 with one strikeout against Chapman – and he’s taking Kimbrel in a pickup game.
“In my opinion there’s not anybody better,” McCann said. “I think (Chapman’s) problem was his control, and he’s starting to throw more strikes. He sits at 98, 99 mph so it’s an uncomfortable at-bat. I think Craig has got the best 1, 2 pitches in the game – his fastball, curveball. Both of those pitches are at the top of what a major league curveball is and what a major league fastball is. That’s what makes him so effective. He doesn’t walk many people.”
Chapman has cut down his walks this season too, with 2.3 per nine innings, compared to Kimbrel’s 2.4.
It would make for an interesting decision if National League Cy Young voters decide to give those two some attention. Only two relievers have won a Cy Young in the past 20 years – Dennis Eckersley for the Athletics in 1992 and Eric Gagne for the Dodgers in 2003. And they both had save totals in the 50s – Eckersley with 51 and Gagne with 55.
Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez, for one, thinks the Cy Young should be a starting pitcher’s award, based on how many more innings they throw and the fact that relievers have the Rolaids Relief Man award. But relievers can get Cy Young consideration if they rack up saves, and it’s a mediocre year statistically for the top starters.
Russ Ortiz went 21-7 in 2003 for the Braves but with a 3.81 ERA and 102 walks in 212 1/3 innings. Gagne matched John Smoltz’s National League save record with 55, but without blowing a single save.
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63 comments Add your comment
DOB is a fool
August 8th, 2012
6:48 pm
Hahahahahahahaha Saves are the most important stat of all? This guy really knows nothing about baseball.
Tim
August 8th, 2012
6:50 pm
Kimbrel is in his 2nd year of being a dominating closer. Chapman is only in his 1st. Gimme me Kid K every time.
nc fan
August 8th, 2012
6:52 pm
Enter your comments here
nc fan
August 8th, 2012
6:52 pm
3rd
JWOOD
August 8th, 2012
6:53 pm
For a closer, the stat that determines how effective he is at his primary job (saves), then, yes, saves are the most important stats for a closer.
nc fan
August 8th, 2012
6:53 pm
makes more in one year than u ever make in a lifetime
dont worry u can look for a job in nov
nc fan
August 8th, 2012
6:55 pm
i bet chapman does not choke in a must game like last year
Art Vandelay
August 8th, 2012
6:55 pm
@fool 1) It is Carroll’s article and 2) For a closer, the bottom line is saves converted out of save chances
nc fan
August 8th, 2012
6:55 pm
KIBREL IS A CHOKER
Mac
August 8th, 2012
6:55 pm
“DOB is a fool” – You’ve taken it out of context. DOB is talking about saves being the most important of all stats for relievers. Which is what this entire article is about: relievers. You must not read very much.
nc fan
August 8th, 2012
6:56 pm
LETS COMPARE WHEN THE GAMES MEAN SOMETHING IN SEPT
CHOKER = KIMBREL
California Braves Fan
August 8th, 2012
6:56 pm
At least when the Cincy blogger wrote about this, he or she gave credit to the CBS Sports writer that published this story this morning…
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/08/08/should-aroldis-chapman-be-the-leading-candidate-for-nl-cy-young/
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/story/19753540/nl-cy-young-award-conversation-starts-with-closers-chapman-kimbrel
nc fan
August 8th, 2012
6:57 pm
12TH
nc fan
August 8th, 2012
6:57 pm
13TH
Atlanta Chris
August 8th, 2012
7:05 pm
JWOOD – I call BS. While I agree with DOB, Saves are the primary determiner used by the majority of baseball fans as to who’s the better closer, it s ultimately a BS stat. See here for more: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Save_(baseball)#Value. I think anyone would be insane in deciding one guy is better than another guy simply because he has more saves. If I pitch the last 3 innings with a 20 point lead, I still get a save. RIDICULOUS.
Vino Fino
August 8th, 2012
7:07 pm
NC Fan- give it a rest.
Craig Kimbrel was a kid in his first season in the bigs. If anything, he was over-amped for the situation. Besides, he had been run into the ground by a manager and a pitching coach that totally abused the back end of their bullpen last year. Sure, Kimbrel stumbled a bit down the stretch, but to call him a choker is completely unfair and misguided. I would submit that the real choking came from management and an offense that was completely inept the last 6 weeks of the season.
Kimbrel has been nothing short of dominant, and I wouldn’t hesitate to put money on him coming through in that exact same situation for years to come.
JD
August 8th, 2012
7:11 pm
Yes, but no closer pitches the last three innings to get the save anymore.
Runner-
August 8th, 2012
7:13 pm
You all are idiots. DOB meant most important stat in terms of who has the advantage for the Cy Young race between these two, not the most important stat in all of baseball… Lmfao
N8
August 8th, 2012
7:20 pm
Those of you defending DOB are the true and idiots. DOB didn’t write the story.
But carry on.
ehand16
August 8th, 2012
7:21 pm
He saying it was the most important stat for a closer… it was a column about closers, not too hard to figure that out.
Tim
August 8th, 2012
7:26 pm
Carroll Rogers wrote the article. Not DOB.
JWOOD
August 8th, 2012
7:45 pm
@Atlanta Chris – Chapman has blown more saves than Kimbrel. What is more important of a stat than that?
Jared2292
August 8th, 2012
10:30 pm
Kimbrel because he is only in his second year and Chapman is in his 4th year. So Kimbrel is obviously the better closer and also Kimbrel won the NL rookie of the year last year.
Rowsdower
August 9th, 2012
1:24 am
20 point lead? This isn’t basketball dude…
Random
August 9th, 2012
8:20 am
DOB is a fool (August 8th, 2012 6:48 pm): “Hahahahahahahaha Saves are the most important stat of all? This guy really knows nothing about baseball.”
Not DOB. Not this time. (Sorry, CR.)
JWOOD (August 8th, 2012 6:53 pm): “For a closer, the stat that determines how effective he is at his primary job (saves), then, yes, saves are the most important stats for a closer.”
Nope — certainly not as a counting stat, since it is totally outside of the closer’s control how many save opportunities he will be given.
And not even as some kind of rate, eg % blown saves, since a blown save can come about through no fault of the closer — ie, unearned runs.
Saves are no more “the most important statistic of all” for a closer than wins are for a starter, and for much the same reason.
(And also, what Atlanta Chris aid at 7:05 — “co-sign”.)
Sorry, Art Vandelay, Mac, Runner-, JD, et al — I’d like to agree with you, but then we’d all be wrong.
wayn-o
August 9th, 2012
9:48 am
trolls. trolls everywhere.
Lobosolo
August 9th, 2012
11:42 am
Baseball scientists everywhere…. nc fan, whom are you a fan of???
urban redneck
August 9th, 2012
12:01 pm
sounds like he’s a fan of himself…………this means he at least has one fan. douche.
go bravos.
Banjo man
August 9th, 2012
12:14 pm
Most important stat to me is If he squealls like a pig
COOPER
August 9th, 2012
12:14 pm
The reason Chapman is having so much success is because the hitters are scared to death to face him not because he is that good . They know he doesn’t have good control and are more looking to not get killed than hit the ball. Chapman will only have moderate success with having only a fast ball.
Kimbrel on the other hand has one of the best sliders in the major league. He has great control so when a hitter fails against Kimbrel it is because he was better than the hitter not that they were scared of him. Chapman isn’t even in Kimbrel’s league. Chapman’s success will last just so long without a second great pitch or if he only has limited control.
JC Boscan III
August 9th, 2012
12:21 pm
Well, at least nobody spelled Kris Medlen’s name “Medlin” in this set of comments. Within the first 28 comments, the article’s author was mis-identified more than once, the focus of the article was too confusing for some to follow, and we now count runs as points…………. GO BRAVES….!
JWOOD
August 9th, 2012
12:56 pm
I guess Smoltz isn’t going to the HOF because his saves numbers mean nothing.
Ken Stallings
August 9th, 2012
2:06 pm
It is a razor thin margin between Chapman and Kimbrel. Honestly, it comes down to a daily evaluation depending upon who’s throwing best. Both have truly nasty stuff and are excellent at their jobs. Both are getting close to the Mariano Rivera level.
jambro
August 9th, 2012
2:07 pm
nc fan,your STUPID
BravesWin
August 9th, 2012
2:11 pm
My money’s on Kimbrel, based on his control. A lot will depend on which team gets further into the playoffs, too.
…and why can’t Carroll have her own byline?!?
Skip
August 9th, 2012
2:15 pm
Jambro: its “You’re”
Coach
August 9th, 2012
2:23 pm
nc fan, does North Carolina have a professional baseball team? No? Well, I suggest you silence that piehole that you call a mouth. The back end of the pen was worn out by the end of the season due to an enemic offense and the overusage of his big three. Kimbrel has nothing but been lights out this year, and ranks up there with the best closers in baseball right now. My suggestion, gather all of the facts surrounding last years collapse before you pass judgement on one player. You will be surprised how much smarter that you will feel.
Fire Fredi
August 9th, 2012
2:26 pm
Totally true, Saves are a ridiculous stat. What’s worse is that Fredi actually gives it importance too. What a fool!
Coach
August 9th, 2012
2:30 pm
The closer has one job to do, put out the fire and shut the door, period. The closer’s job is to close out games, and/or hold the opposing team from scoring in the late innings. I would say that saves are the big number here for closer’s, but not the only job for a closer. If the score is tied in the top of the ninth, and you have the heart of the opposing team’s order coming out, you would certainly consider running your closer out there( in a perfect world, if this year’s Venters was last year’s, I would run him out there).
Good Grief Charlie Brown
August 9th, 2012
2:31 pm
@Ken Stallings: Kimbrel and Chapman aren’t even close to the ‘Mariano Rivera level’ yet. let one, or both, of them have a long period of continued success (regular and postseason) as a closer. only then can the comparisons to the greatest closer in MLB history begin.
Ken Stallings
August 9th, 2012
2:32 pm
I have a suggestion, why don’t the bloggers here focus on the column written by the AJC columnist vice writing about themselves!
And for the record, North Carolina has an entire league of professional baseball teams — called the Carolina League! It’s been around for several decades and is one of the oldest professional leagues in the nation.
In addition, there are several AAA and AA teams.
Saves are a vital stat because the way it works most of the time, the ninth inning is where the opponent has the top or heart of their order at bat, or if not, will empty out the best of their available pinch hitters to face your pitcher. Therefore, a closer always faces the best hitters of the opposition. This is why closing is more challenging than holding a lead or mopping up innings when behind.
jerry
August 9th, 2012
2:37 pm
It is theoretically possible for a reliefer to strike out every batter and never have a save, e.g., if his team never had a lead or the lead was too big to qualify. What could be better than striking out every hitter and never giving up a run?
Coach
August 9th, 2012
2:40 pm
Ok, I apologize for not clarifying myself regarding professional baseball teams in North Carolina. I will clarify my question now….Does North Carolina have a Major League Baseball team? I don’t mean A, AA, AAA, Independent League or Carolina League.
Ken Stallings, I will agree with you that saves are a vital stat, and while Kimbrel is not yet there on the Mariano level yet, he is well on his way, if he stays healthy. Managers will of course send there best available to the plate against our best on the mound. It’s a chess match at the end when the game is on the line, and the best player will win in the end.
Jaded
August 9th, 2012
2:50 pm
I give a closer’s save-percentage numbers a little more weight than I do a starting pitcher’s wins. Wins are dependant upon a pitcher’s offense giving him the lead. A closer comes into the game with his team already ahead and has one singular goal: to hold the lead.
Of course, there are variables that can affect a guy’s conversion rate. For instance, a closer who comes into a bunch of one-run games is probably going to blow more saves than a closer who comes into a bunch of three-run games.
However, a closer’s performance is still more isolated from outside factors than a starting pitcher’s. I don’t think you can luck your way into a perfect season as a closer, like Gagne had in ‘03 or Lidge had a few years ago with the Phillies. But an average starting pitcher can easily luck his way into 17 wins under the right circumstances.
Can't Bel;ieve some of the Damned Fools THat Post Here
August 9th, 2012
3:59 pm
Kimbrel a choker? Cluelessness personified. And it isn’t even DOB that wrote the article here morons, it was Carrol Rogers – you would have known that if you were actually literate enough tio read the headings.
Darryl Blackberry
August 9th, 2012
4:26 pm
It’s “pitcher HAS a rubber arm”…
Who’s the NL’s best closer? Kimbrel vs. Chapman- from AJC | The Jock1150
August 9th, 2012
4:31 pm
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Joey
August 9th, 2012
4:36 pm
Damn, do you geniuses know yet Carroll wrote this item?
And nc fan, get a girlfriend – surely it will help with the mental illness, if not, she can call the guys with the butterfly nets . . .
ragnar danneskjold
August 9th, 2012
5:01 pm
Kimbrel is exactly three months younger than Chapman. Early 1988 must have been a good time for future closers.
Bravesfanbob
August 9th, 2012
5:38 pm
This is what makes baseball great. As an avid Braves fan, I wouldn’t trade Kimbrel for Chapman, and I bet most Reds fans wouldn’t trade Chapman for Kimbrel. They are both INCREDIBLE talents. But here’s the thing and there’s no getting around it: Kimbrel has great mechanics for someone who can hit 100 on the radar. Chapman has mechanics similar to Steven Strasburg, and it’s probably a matter of time before a major injury could occur. You don’t want to mess with the kids mechanics, but the violent motion he has is so similar to Strasburg’s before his Tommy John surgery, you wonder if his arm will last. Kimbrel’s smooth delivery for such a high MPH pitch is definitely a tribute to his coaches who taught him the correct way to throw. Now, an injury can occur to anyone, but at least Kimbrel is doing the right things to last longer.
Ken Stallings
August 9th, 2012
8:54 pm
Kimbrel and Chapman are getting close to Riveria in terms of stuff (meaning nastiness of pitches). However, clearly neither is remotely close to career accomplishments. Kimbrel is closer on that level but needs to put a decade of results on par with his current achievements to get close in terms of career achievements — and that’s asking a lot!
RunninWithTheDawgs
August 10th, 2012
6:36 am
I guess Kimbrel is destined to be in the bull pen his whole carreer, but I’d like to see him in the starting rotation, and let some of these other guys like Medlen and Delgato take their turn in the bull pen.
Thaddeus
August 10th, 2012
8:55 am
I’m kind of blown away at the stupidity of some of these comments. All this talk about inherited runners and unearned runs and putting out fires? That’s an argument for middle relievers. Kimbrel and Chapman are CLOSERS. They enter the game at the beginning of the 9th or not at all.
Saves are the most important stat for a closer. Of course, better teams will give their closers more opportunities to get saves(by being ahead going into the 9th), but the the Braves and Reds have comparable records. I think the blown saves are the most telling.
Chapman has gone into the 9th with a lead and blown the game 4 times. Kimbrel has only done this twice.
It’s tough for me think that major lead hitters are getting struck out by Chapman because they’re all scared.
An average starter lucking his way into 17 wins? seriously? Got any examples?
Horacio
August 10th, 2012
9:08 am
Chapman got issues with his control and now he´s more reliable. I think he is going through the same problems that Kimbrel went in his first year. Last year Kimbrel always put runners on base and somehow he escaped, but ended hunting in September. Now there is no doubt in my mind, Kimbrel is the best closer in the Majors, he has 2-3 pitches which make him unhittable and he could enjoy a longer career than any other closer, because he doesn´t trust only on his fastball.
Thaddeus
August 10th, 2012
9:21 am
I just ran across an interesting stat. Chapman has 25 saves for the Reds. Broxton has 23 saves for the Reds.
April
August 10th, 2012
9:29 am
He’s in the AL, but Fernando Rodney has 34 saves and a .85 ERA, I guess he’s better than Kimbrel AND Chapman….Cause, I mean, those are the important stats.
tony
August 10th, 2012
10:07 am
didn’t wilson from the giants win the cy young?
Random
August 10th, 2012
10:08 am
Furthermore, since a major part of CR’s article is whether either or both Chapman/Kimbrel should be considered for the Cy Young Award, neither Saves nor Wins would be of any use in such evaluations.
Saves/Wins are apples and oranges for comparing starters with closers. How would you compare a starter with 20 Wins (regardless of how valid you think the Win stat is) with a closer with 50 Saves (regardless of how valid you think the Save stat is) in filling out your CY Young ballot?
To compare starters and closers, you would have to look at the stats that they do have in common –Innings Pitched, ERA, K/9 IP, BB/9 IP, K/BB, xFIP, GO/FO, etc, etc, etc.. (Consideration of IPs would of course give starters a significant leg up over closers, which I feel is justified, though that advantage could be overcome by a truly worthy reliever.)
PS: @Thaddeus (8:55 am) — I’d like to agree with you but then we’d both be wrong.
Random
August 10th, 2012
10:14 am
Thaddeus (August 10th, 2012 8:55 am): “An average starter lucking his way into 17 wins? seriously? Got any examples?”
Example: Jack Morris
Obverse (or counter) example: Bert Blyleven
Thaddeus
August 10th, 2012
1:41 pm
Jack Morris pitched 18 seasons. He had 17 or more wins in 8 of those seasons. He had 15 or more wins in 12 off them. I wouldn’t consider it luck for him to get 17 wins. He had a 344 win career…
Thaddeus
August 10th, 2012
2:05 pm
excuse me, that’s 244
Random
August 10th, 2012
3:42 pm
Thaddeus (August 10th, 2012 1:41 pm): “Jack Morris pitched 18 seasons. He had 17 or more wins in 8 of those seasons. He had 15 or more wins in 12 off them. I wouldn’t consider it luck for him to get 17 wins. He had a [244] win career…”
In 1980, Morris won 16 games for Detroit with a 4.18 ERA. The league average — AVERAGE –ERA for that year was 4.03, 15 points lower.
In 1992, Morris won 21 games for Toronto with a 4.04 ERA. The league average ERA for that year was 3.94, 10 points lower.
It would seem to me that in those two years he did indeed “luck his way” into those wins.
Thcotty
August 12th, 2012
1:56 am
Saves are overrated. Look at WHIP and K’s per nine innings. Seems to me they are both pretty close. Chapman’s control is vastly improved this season–> only 3 more BB’s than Kimbrel in 13 more innings pitched than Kimbrel.
They are both nasty. I’ve watched both. Chapman overwhelms batters. Kimbrel is plain filthy…