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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
1,129 comments Add your comment
Efrim
August 8th, 2012
1:30 pm
The calculation needs some work…
Agreed. It’s not fair to 1B, and some other positions are given too much value. However, I sure like it for Jason…. hah!
TennesseePaul
August 8th, 2012
1:30 pm
Or, if Freeman isn’t to one’s liking, Konerko has essentially put together a career of a bench player.
Efrim
August 8th, 2012
1:30 pm
would you trade McCann to be able to free up the money to re-sign Bourn?
Absolutely not.
Kat
August 8th, 2012
1:32 pm
About 30 ft from Eli Manning right now. One perk of living 3mins from training camp.
Three Strikes They Are Out
August 8th, 2012
1:32 pm
Of all the pitchers currently under Braves control, there are 3 that I feel are not worth protecting. What that says is I see current or future positive performance for the rest who are not one of those three.
JJ- that was a no brainer wasn’t it?
Hanson- He is falling off a cliff. His mechanics alone are enough to guarantee future injury, ineffectiveness and justification for sending him on his way. Who thought drafting someone who throws like that a good idea?
Gearrin- With his 1point whatever era is a wreck waiting to happen. He has no clue where the ball is going out of his hand. Half his pitches are frisbees. The reason his ERA is so low because people bail him out. Sunday, he came in threw to one hitter and gave up a rocket hit. Venters bailed him out. Last night, pitched to one hitter, who drove the ball to the wall. This guy ain’t Moylan. He’s doesn’t resemble any effective sidearmer I know. I cringed when Freddie brought him in Sunday with a one run lead.
Efrim
August 8th, 2012
1:32 pm
I guess the thing I’ve hated is just looking at a players slash line and determining just from that the player is equal or more valuable than the other player. Position matters. Baserunning matters. Defense matters. All that sh!t is important and it’s ridiculous to never include in discussion on the value of a player.
Shaun
August 8th, 2012
1:33 pm
Check out the newest Baseball Prospectus Baseball Between the Numbers book, Extra Innings. Steve Goldman does an excellent job in the introduction tearing down the criticisms of WAR or WARP that many here love to bring up.
Basically he explains why replacement level isn’t imaginary and that that level has been more or less consistent throughout the history of the game.
He also explains we need some starting point (replacement level) because in a vacuum we would have no idea how good a player is. A player who hits .300/.400/.500 seems like a pretty good player but how do we know unless we have some perspective, some basis? What if the league hit .280/.350/.480? That player doesn’t look like such a great hitter any more.
I would like to see some of those who criticize WAR tell us how they are going to measure a player’s value in a vacuum, without any knowledge of the minimal level of performance that is easily available.
In a vacuum, I may look like I can play centerfield in the majors because I’m better than putting nothing out in centerfield. But if you start from what is essentially 0 at the major league level (a player that can be had for minimal resources and plugged in to center) and it’s clear I would cost a team a ton. It’s a concept that makes plenty of sense if you aren’t threatened by it and don’t view it as something the other, the people who are different from you came up with.
TennesseePaul
August 8th, 2012
1:36 pm
I guess the thing I’ve hated is just looking at a players slash line and determining just from that the player is equal or more valuable than the other player. Position matters.
I get that. But then isn’t it obvious in the discussion? If you are comparing a Catcher to a center fielder, the only thing you can really compare is the slash line. The defense is very different, and the tools needed for that defense are very different. You don’t need to be fast on the feet to be an excellent defensive catcher. You do if you are to be an excellent defensive CF.
TheOnlyBravesFan
August 8th, 2012
1:37 pm
would you trade McCann to be able to free up the money to re-sign Bourn?
No. I don’t want to anger McFann… Also don’t think Bourn is worth 14+ mil a year.
unbelievable
August 8th, 2012
1:39 pm
I guess the thing I’ve hated is just looking at a players slash line and determining just from that the player is equal or more valuable than the other player. Position matters. Baserunning matters. Defense matters. All that sh!t is important and it’s ridiculous to never include in discussion on the value of a player.
I agree, so what about fWAR. You might get shot here mentioning such a stat.
MikeInFl
August 8th, 2012
1:39 pm
Who thought drafting someone who throws like that a good idea?
I don’t see a very bright future for Hanson, but I guess I’d be okay with all of our 22nd round picks providing the production he has.
TennesseePaul
August 8th, 2012
1:40 pm
In a vacuum, I may look like I can play centerfield in the majors
Don’t kid yourself Payne.
TennesseePaul
August 8th, 2012
1:45 pm
tell us how they are going to measure a player’s value in a vacuum
I suppose the problem here is, even when I speak baseball with Lew (not picking on you Lew, just know you are the bain of Payne’s pain), I know Lew is not speaking about a player “in a vacuum.” Baseball is a conversation and that conversation has context. That context need not be stated explicitly in every breath. It’s context for a reason.
raleighbravefan
August 8th, 2012
1:50 pm
Shaun – In a vacuum you look obsessive and arrogant…wait…bad example.
tony austin
August 8th, 2012
1:54 pm
The Braves have allowed 107 HR. Minor and Hanson are responsible for 42 (23,19 respectively). The rest of the team has allowed 65, which would be the fewest allowed followed by the Dodgers 82.
This is probably a useless stat in and of itself, but I thought I’d throw it out there.
raleighbravefan
August 8th, 2012
1:54 pm
10Paul – But Shaun sees everyone as if in a vacuum…don’t you know that there is no such thing a “clutch”, or performing at different levels in different situations, or on and on and on.
Efrim
August 8th, 2012
1:54 pm
Shaun, can you explain to me why Darwin Barney is one of the most valuable players in the sport according to WAR?
Three Strikes They Are Out
August 8th, 2012
1:55 pm
“I would like to see some of those who criticize WAR tell us how they are going to measure a player’s value in a vacuum, without any knowledge of the minimal level of performance that is easily available.”
Gee I don’t know, maybe watch him play! Be knowledgeable about others who play big league baseball! Ya know, the kind of things scouts and GM’s do and know? These types were evaluating talent long before WAR and the 2000 other new numerical methods that some use to evaluate talent existed.
raleighbravefan
August 8th, 2012
1:57 pm
tony – Not sure what you are saying…is it that if Minor and Hanson had not pitched, that we would have only given up 65…therefore assumiong that whoever pitched in their place would give up none? Why aren’t we starting those 2 guys?
phil
August 8th, 2012
1:59 pm
Efrim
August 8th, 2012
1:12 pm
Throw a good pitcher at us, we collapse like a house of cards….
Haven’t we destroyed Dickey and Strasburg this year?
****************
Well…..okay. Dang facts.
Shaun
August 8th, 2012
2:00 pm
I generally don’t even look at WAR. Everything else though is interesting. Last year, for instance, Sean Smith’s analysis puts Freeman’s rookie season as a bench player. This year he is still a bench player level player, maybe a starter. By this measure, there are only 8 players at 1st base in the majors who should be starting. The rest are bench players or QuadA players. The calculation needs some work…
Most calculations of WAR or WARP or similar metrics last season had Freeman within the top 30 among firstbaseman. How is that putting him as a bench player?
WAR takes replacement-level as the baseline, the jumping-off point. It doesn’t really address whether a player should be a starter or a bench player. It simply address his value above a replacement-level or a fringe-type player.
I think the problem some may have is they tend to overrate how much impact or value one player can possibly have. In all honestly, relatively speaking, there aren’t all that many players that are more than a few wins above replacement level. A player that is a win or two above replacement level is a very good player. So when some folks see that a player is only a win or two above replacement and that player seems like a good player, they view it as a travesty. In all honestly, that’s pretty good.
Three Strikes They Are Out
August 8th, 2012
2:00 pm
“I would like to see some of those who criticize WAR tell us how they are going to measure a player’s value in a vacuum”
I didn’t realize that it was normal to take on the task of ranking a player’s worth in a vacuum. If you, or me, or any fan lives in a baseball vacuum when it comes to rating talent, then we should not be rating talent.
Carroll Rogers
August 8th, 2012
2:00 pm
new blog is up!
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2012/08/08/nats-not-giving-up-any-ground-in-nl-east/
Threadkiller
August 8th, 2012
2:01 pm
3K’s..Good one! Made me laugh out loud! That is a very true post..Thanks
Efrim
August 8th, 2012
2:02 pm
Most HR allowed on the road: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/split/34/league/nl/sort/homeRuns/type/expanded/order/true
TennesseePaul
August 8th, 2012
2:02 pm
How is that putting him as a bench player?
Sean Smith’s calculation of WAR has a single season scale; less than 2 is “reserve” or “bench”
phil
August 8th, 2012
2:02 pm
Another afternoon of reading the rantings of The Loon…..
And no, I don’t mean myself!
TheOnlyBravesFan
August 8th, 2012
2:03 pm
About 30 ft from Eli Manning right now.
He sure is a hottie…
Shaun
August 8th, 2012
2:07 pm
Gee I don’t know, maybe watch him play! Be knowledgeable about others who play big league baseball! Ya know, the kind of things scouts and GM’s do and know? These types were evaluating talent long before WAR and the 2000 other new numerical methods that some use to evaluate talent existed.
Yes, WAR is a way to put a more definite measure on this stuff. Scouts are essentially using the same concept, though they might not use the same language but they just aren’t precisely measuring a player’s performance value.
Scouts are using the same concept in that they are essentially asking themselves the following: Based on a player’s skills, is he likely to be major league replacement level or above or below it; and roughly how far above or below. They may not use that terminology and, again, they are using precise-as-possible measures but they are essentially using the same concept that is used with WAR.