2:57 pm July 18, 2012, by David O'Brien
July 18th, 20126:42 pm
It kinda ticks me off a bit when players wait until after they leave here to get in true game shape! (Melky’s case)
Like he wasn’t serious about his conditioning until it looked like his career had hit the skids.
a coach who sits as far away from home plate as possible? hmmmm
Melky’s hitting .640??
July 18th, 20126:44 pm
DOB is against Greinke? Hmmm…Could he be setting the Braves fans up so we dont get our hopes up?
Dempster, Felix Hernandez, and Greinke are the ONLY difference-makers for the Braves…Not Liriano, Shields, or Garza
Also, Grienke’s trade value is MUCH LESS right now b/c hes “re-charging his batteries”
Make the move Wren NOW>..
July 18th, 20126:45 pm
Is this game going to start on time? Question for anybody close to the ball park.
July 18th, 20126:46 pm
Yea all you adults on this blog.
Sun just poked out behind some nasty looking clouds where I’m at (about 30 miles away)
whoops…there’s the thunder
thats too hard a question DS1
Why does it have to rain? I need this game to start on time. What am I gonna do during any delay?
July 18th, 20126:47 pm
I really don’t think Greinke is the guy to go after. Make the play for Dempster or Liriano.
But chances are that FW gets somebody that is rarely mentioned here. Anibal Sanchez?
July 18th, 20126:48 pm
Why does it have to rain?
To sustain crops and consequently life.
What am I gonna do during any delay?
Jeff Francoeur “In My Own Words”
DOB, there are certainly valid reasons teams like the Braves and plenty of others may not want to give Greinke a $20M a year contract. But I don’t think it would be based purely on his talent and what he’s likely to do in the next few seasons.
Regarding ERA and WHIP, they are better indicators than wins, but they are far from great indicators of a pitcher’s talent and what he might do going forward with a different defense behind him.
You do agree that team defense influences hits allowed, right? Even hits allowed for an individual pitcher, no? And you do agree that hits allowed influences runs allowed, even earned runs allowed, no? And in an extreme case, like one in which a pitcher has pitched his entire career in front of below-average to poor defensive teams, I’m pretty certain that front office personnel takes ERA and WHIP (things that are influenced by team defense and not just the talent of the pitcher) with a grain of salt.
The best guess we can make about Grienke, based on all the data and evidence we have is that if he played in front of good defenses, his basic stats like ERA and WHIP would look pretty darn close to the elite starters. He’s more in the Sabathia, Hernandez range over the last 3 years or so. No pitcher has been in the Halladay, Verlander, Lee range over that span. They are pretty much in a class by themselves. Grienke, though, is in the class just below that, based on how he’s performed, not based purely on stats that are influenced by the poor defensive teams on which he’s played.
See, I am not afraid to ask the “hard” questions…………
mighty coincidental that Greinke has sukked all of a sudden as soon as the scouts swarmed around, if there is nothing physical or mental wrong
According to radio pregame…..it is currently being assessed—-tarp is off
July 18th, 20126:49 pm
bring back nocahoma
July 18th, 20126:50 pm
well said Shaun HARUMPH!!
Ex-Brave Brandon Hicks hits walk-off HR — his first career homer — as A’s beat Braves West, the Texas Rangers.
July 18th, 20126:51 pm
Here’s hoping that LA-Phillies game goes about 20 innings.
tarp is on
Ex-Brave Brandon Hicks hits walk off HR as A’s beat Braves West, the Texas Rangers.
Check—Official rain delay—tarp now on
yeah HARUMPH! alright….
Rob From SC
July 18th, 20126:52 pm
Dexter Fowler is not a good hitter away from Coors Field.
OBP drops down to .322 on the road. Slugging drops more than 200 points
July 18th, 20126:53 pm
Why are we even talking about 20 million dollar a year pitchers? With our budget? Doesn’t make sense to me.
give the Governor a Harumph!!
The Greinke slumps concerns me too. BUT, the Brewers did screw around with him by starting him on back to back days.
July 18th, 20126:54 pm
Good ref….’Walkmen,’ going to YT now
it is amazing the splits that so many Coors hitters have had over the years
July 18th, 20126:55 pm
UNCBrave, there are plenty of reasons to be hesitant to want the Braves to do all they would possibly have to do to get Greinke. But his talent, how he’s performed and how he’s likely to perform aren’t valid reasons. I guarantee you no front office looks at ERA and WHIP and concludes he falls well short of the top pitchers in recent years. I’m pretty certain, given what is published by people who don’t work in front offices, that front offices realize how Greinke’s defense has influenced his ERA and WHIP and realize that, while he’s not Verlander, Lee or Halladay, he’s in that next tier of starters. If there are people who don’t work in front offices that can show us that Greinke’s performance doesn’t match his ERA and WHIP because of defense, I can almost guarantee that front offices don’t put as much stock in ERA and WHIP as some may think.
July 18th, 2012
Does anyone know if Wren has talked with Javy Vasquez? He won 13 with the pitiful Marlins last year with a 3.69 era then decided he had enough baseball. He says he’s playing tennis everyday and being with the kids. All it would cost is a bit of money if Wren could lure him back to the game. He looks in great physical shape and would just have to get his arm in shape. Didn’t he win 15 for us three years ago then we traded him to the Yankeees who tradeded him to the Marlins. Could be another nugget if we could lure him back to the game.
I hear Carlton, Palmer, Smoltz, Glavine and Maddux are all available too.
after 4 pitches Rob? GMAB
July 18th, 20126:56 pm
“Why are we even talking about 20 million dollar a year pitchers? With our budget? Doesn’t make sense to me.”
JJ has no reason to have an attitude
July 18th, 20126:57 pm
Shields would be the best fit for the Braves. Liriano if the Braves think they can extend him for 3 years at a reasonable cost
July 18th, 20126:59 pm
July 18th, 2012
after 4 pitches Rob? GMAB
First off what does GMAB mean?
Second, Pitchers are creatures of habit…Maybe he wasn’t really mentally prepared.
extend Liriano? I don’t know about that. He’s so volatile that I’d rather hop we catch him on a good run of starts and then let somebody else deal with the downswings
And unless Braves’ fans want a repeat of the Lowe Debacle, Dempster only stays two months, as he is on the downward slope of 30. That’s not a contract I wish to extend, and Dempster will want years.
July 18th, 20127:01 pm
how is it again that you know that enough to guarantee it, Shaun?
DOB, hearing any deals close or in the makings for the Braves? Or same old tight lipped stuff?
July 18th, 20127:02 pm
Why would anyone want James Shields? Sure he missed bats and doesn’t walk many hitters while pitching against AL East hitters but, for all you stat heads, he has a career 4.00 ERA and a 1.256 WHIP. Pay no attention to those AL East lineups behind the curtain. (sarcasm)
he was bad B4 that happened and bad since Rob, Give Me A Break
July 18th, 20127:03 pm
FIP, learn it, love it, live it
it’s a better gauge of a pitcher than ERA, and on a better defense Greinke would be a top 10 arm in all of baseball — NickB
When I write for a baseball-only publication and not a newspaper, perhaps. But I write for a large audience, not for a niche baseball-centric audience. To date, you won’t even see FIP in a Sports Illustrated story about pitching — in the magazine, not talking about an online article by one of their baseball-blogger types — much less in a mainstream newspaper. We are writing for audiences with differing levels of interest and statistical backgrounds. Not for those stat mavens who toss around the latest, most sophisticated stats that would require half of our typical print-edition space limits just to explain the stat itself.
If you’re looking for FIP, I’m sure you can and do find it elsewhere. We’re writing for a different audience here. People who want to know what the players and characters involved in this long drama of a 162-game season think and feel, the stuff you get from talking to them on a daily basis, home and road, after wins and losses, not just by sitting somehwere and running their numbers through formulas to produce sophisticated cold statistical analysis without any human element.
July 18th, 20127:04 pm
if that threw him off he sure ain’t strong enough emotionally to leah us to a championship, plus he pitches like crap in the post season too
July 18th, 20127:05 pm
Livin’ in the affective domain: learn it, love it, live it!
July 18th, 20127:07 pm
OR… I don’t give a FLIP about FIP. Seems like Greinke and his good FIP suffers from the YIP’s when it’s crunch time.
July 18th, 20127:08 pm
I didn’t say you had to use it in your articles, but it would assist you in painting a total picture of a player in your personal views (which certainly influence your writing) you could just refer to them as “peripherals” and say “Though Grinke’s WHIP and ERA haven’t been at the same level of some of the premier ace pitchers in the game, his peripherals point to bad defenses behind him having a detrimental affect..”
DOB, I’m with ya. These stats are out of hand. Some can turn something so simple into a brain teasing algebra problem. Makes them feel smart I guess.
July 18th, 20127:10 pm
1. Jair Jurrjens doesn’t have the heart of a starting pitcher. At the first sign of adversity (he makes a stupid play, an ump makes a bad call, a fielder makes an error), he folds like a cheap card table. And he sure as hell doesn’t have a strikeout pitch any more.
2. On the subject of Melky: don’t the Braves have a strength and conditioning coach (or two?) Certainly, Melky deserves most of the blame for being a fat slob during the 2010 season. But doesn’t the manager, coaching staff, strength coach or someone get paid quite well to get these guys in shape? How do you let 162 games go by, and allow Melky, Hinske, McCann and a few pitchers become poster boys for Krispy Kreme by the end of August?
July 18th, 20127:11 pm
NickB, I think Dave has done just fine for himself exactly how he does things. Been writing for teams for a looooong time and obviously successfully.
Game is not starting on time.
July 18th, 20127:13 pm
NickB and DOB, there is an easy solution here. It’s not all that difficult for the typical baseball fan who is only concerned with traditional stats, if they are going to look at stats, to grasp the concept of the defense greatly influencing a pitcher’s final line, or his ERA or WHIP.
I don’t think one has to use stats like FIP, xFIP, DIPS to get the concept across. It’s pretty simple. A pitcher pitches for a bad defensive club, he’s going to give up more hits which will lead to a higher WHIP (the H in WHIP is hits) and a higher ERA (a batted ball that turns into a double because the centerfielder is too poor a defender to get to it is likely to affect ERA). So we should look more at things the pitcher himself has some degree of control over, like his ability to miss bats, avoid walks, avoid homers, keep the ball on the ground, etc. So the stats you want to focus on are the ones related to these things. Stats like K rate, BB rate, HR rate, or maybe just showing SO, BB, HR along with IP, if you don’t want to convert everything to rates.
I don’t really think you need those stats like FIP, etc. to get folks to realize that maybe they shouldn’t be putting so much stock in things like ERA and WHIP and wins (although most fans now realize that we shouldn’t put a lot of stock in wins).
July 18th, 20127:15 pm
If the Braves are going to go all-in on this season, then they should stop messing around and go all-in. Ask the Mariners what it would take to get Felix and give it to them. Teheran, Delgado, Minor… all unproven. Felix has 2 years of control left beyond this season, is cheaper than what Greinke would cost, and is twice the pitcher of anyone we currently have on the staff.
At this point I’ll take proven with years of control left over everything else on the market… the cost would be high, but even then, you’re still trading unproven for proven, and that’s worth a lot.
Felix would be the ace, he’d be the guy to get you past the play in game, he’d be the guy to stop another team or clinch a series. Everyone else on the staff could relax a little knowing Felix is there.
Again, if the team decides this is THE year, then don’t mess around. It’s been what, 17 years since our last World Series win? This is the best chance the Braves will likely have for at least the next few years.
July 18th, 20127:16 pm
King Felix…that’s the first name I’ve seen on here that I think would be worth giving up the prospects
July 18th, 20127:17 pm
Watching Jordan Zimmerman pitch, and realizing that he’d be the ace of the Braves staff. In Washington, he’s a #3.
ignoring something better cuz it’s new is never a very good plan
A preview for tonight game…My MLB 2K12 simulation
Giants 3 11 1
Braves 13 21 0
WP Minor 7.0 10h 3er 0bb 7k
LP Voglesong 6.0 10h 5er 0bb 6k
Bourn 4-5 3runs 1sb
Prado 4-5 hr 3rbi 2runs
Heyward 2-5 2b 3b 1rbi 1run
Freeman 2-5 hr 3rbi 2ks
Chipper 4-5 hr(backtoback w/freeman) 2rbi
McCann 1-4 rbi
Uggla 3-5 hr 3rbi
Pastornicky(no janish in game yet) 0-5 2ks
Ph: Francisco 2b
July 18th, 20127:19 pm
Is the game likely to be played tonight or is it a washout?
and there isn’t anything “algebra” about the new stats, they are just new and mysterious to many of you. The teams use these numbers, the teams have people researching all this stuff, smart teams NEVER just use saber, or scouting, or baseball card stats to make decisions, they use ALL of them together.
DOB and NickB, actually there are plenty of “sabermetric” or “advanced baseball statistical” concepts that we could do just fine explaining without bogging people down in sabermetrics or advanced statistics. Sure I suppose learning and understanding the data in some semblance of detail helps. But I don’t think you really need to get bogged down in all that to understand and to pass along that things like an individual player’s runs scored and RBI are greatly dependent on where he hits in the lineup and opportunity over his own skills and abilities, or things like team defense is a noticeable influence on an pitcher’s ERA and WHIP. Sabermetrics helps to get us to the point where we understand that team stuff influences individual players’ stats and by how much but we really don’t need it to get it and to pass along that understanding to the average fan or the casual fan who may not realize how much outside influence is there in even things like WHIP.
Geeze, 21 hits?
July 18th, 20127:20 pm
It’s pretty simple. _ Shaun
Hanley or Reyes to Boston for Crawford.
July 18th, 20127:21 pm
I heard that rumor was shot down, ACE
they said it will start late during pre-gam, no talk of a potential rain out
July 18th, 20127:22 pm
Idea for the TV guys: A race is taking place, it’s close to the trade deadline, this team has some issues that need working on—–so instead of showing us yet another RERUN–talk some baseball for a little while. The radio guys do it. I’m sure you can too.
King Felix would be a huge pickup, and at a huge cost…. Not to mention the Mariners NEED his star quality to try to get butts in seats every 5th day, without him, the have an aging Ichiro and that’s about it “star” wise I mean
July 18th, 20127:23 pm
non-baseball-smart dumb person asking – any idea when game is likely to start?
apologies for not referring to any stat indicating when game would start based on historical data related to current season, air temp., humidity etc. please forgive my dumb azz.
July 18th, 20127:25 pm
ya know, if you took the time to broswe the way some of the new stats were constructed and understand them, you could join in instead of just whining
DOB: LIked your explanation of why you do what you do. You do it well.
July 18th, 20127:26 pm
it’ll start when the crickets start chirpin’ again
Good one cricket…
DOB, hearing any deals close or in the makings for the Braves? Or same old tight lipped stuff? — ChattTownBrian
But I can tell you, Braves haven’t approached Prado about a multi-year contract extension. Not yet. I’d expect that to happen in offseason. But I can also tell you, they’ve not considered trading him at all since the season began, and almost certainly won’t now that he’s shown last year was the aberration, the injury-related outlier of his career, and that he is what he’s been before and since that season — a very versatile player with above-average defense at a couple of positions, .300-type with some power and speed, and a terrific teammate and clubhouse presence.
July 18th, 20127:27 pm
NickB, I agree with you. A lot of the “new stats” are intimidating to some just because they are new. But they are really simple concepts. In fact, many of them are a lot more simple than some of the traditional conceptions of baseball stats. Who the hell came up with measuring success and failure of a hitter primarily by looking at his hits in non-walk, non-sac plate appearances over just measuring outs versus non-outs? That’s a lot more convoluted and confusing and backward than many “sabermetric” concepts. To the masses, I think you have to approach introducing those concepts as a more basic, more reliable understanding of the game and stay away from the “s” word. Really, there is nothing particularly “sabermetric” or esoteric or intellectual or whatever else intimidates folks about wanting to break down the game in terms of outs and bases.
July 18th, 20127:28 pm
for the most part you guys are NOT talking about stats, you are talking about mathematical models based on stats. not the same thing at all. and absolutely no way in the world to actually prove that they are correct
i guess they were making up for last night with the 21 hits
smallmouth6: thank you.
July 18th, 20127:29 pm
I’m not trying to sound like a jerk, but the facts are the new stats aren’t going away, in fact they will continue to grow as more and more young people latch onto them. If you just sit back and hand wave them away you will just fall further and further behind the mainstream.
I’m 39, I would almost bet that by the time I’m 60 that you will hear constant banter about FIP , WAR,OPS and so on the way you hear batting avg, RBI’s and Wins now.
At least you should get some inside info.
July 18th, 20127:30 pm
so says the grumpy old “scout” who’s own esoteric way of judging players can’t be proven to be facts either (though in the case of WAR and UZR and other things, they have tended to be very good examples of performance)
July 18th, 20127:31 pm
OPS yes, the others will be replaced by the newest models by then
I like the traditional stats.
By asking the tough questions, right?
July 18th, 20127:32 pm
ya know, if you took the time to broswe the way some of the new stats were constructed and understand them, you could join in instead of just whining _ NickB
Yes indeed, cricket, chime in. I was just thinking what we need is a few thousand more words on FIB, Whip, explaining how defense can effect ERA and what have you. Then maybe we can get another 100,000 or so on correlation of OBP, batting order and RBI.
so have my calls about players on here Nick, all ya gotta do is pat attention
and there is nothing grumpy about pointing out the difference between stats and non-stats
July 18th, 20127:33 pm
Why are we getting so ugly over what stats to use?
I don’t think so Nick. People really don’t care for change. They like their old fashioned baseball. There will be some more talk about that stuff mainly because of the internet, but they should keep the game as simple as possible. There’s enough complicated things in life to have it in their hobby.
NickB – thanks for being generous in your condescension and assuming that i don’t understand and follow any stats. is it possible that i don’t discuss stats obsessively on this blog, mainly because of the douche bag that spoils any discussion by being completely disingenuous, something he has been doing here for many years? off course not. that is not possible. it must be because i am lower form of humanity who has no drive to use internet to learn new things. thanks for your attention, again.
also oh smart one, i write like 5 comments / blog. use your eyes to glaze over my stupidity and just skip those comments instead of complaining about my whining.
anyway, appreciate if anyone else actually has an idea about game start time. EI doesn’t start till game starts. has any announcement been made?
July 18th, 20127:35 pm
Matt Kemp with a walk off 2 run home run to beat the Phillies.
whatever dude, you are the one who complained
July 18th, 20127:36 pm
cause , even those of use who understand and use them are getting tired of getting lectured about them every day, like the subject has not been done to death any number of times here already.
when is Game time?
Vin was the anti-Chip there – I could tell Kemp’s hit was gone right away, Vin took his time getting excited…
July 18th, 20127:37 pm
Bat Masterson: That (7:32) was funny.
July 18th, 20127:38 pm
Nice piece of writing there DO;B,etc.
I would like to see the game started and about an inning later, the rain come back and the game delayed for an hour or so. The starters won’t be able to continue and it’ll be up to each club’s bullpen. We may win that battle, but Vogelsong vs Minor is not a matchup that favors the Braves.
Seattle is arguably one of the 5 worst teams in all of baseball right now. They aren’t just kinda bad, they are really bad, and with Ichiro nearing the end of his career, it’s time for them to start rebuilding.
What better way to start rebuilding than with a fantastic package of prospects from the Braves?! Worked for Texas, it can work for them too!
The WS has probably not been this open for the taking in a long, long time. I personally don’t want to see the team wait around another 17 years, hoping the stars align… with the mega TV deals being signed by everyone except the Braves, the team might be staring at their best chance to bring another championship to Atlanta for the next 20+ years. Right now.
Forget about holding onto prospects. Forget about trading for a guy with anxiety issues. Forget about next year and get the job done NOW.
Felix the guy we need. Not Greinke. Not Liriano. Felix would tilt the balance of power back to the Braves’ favor and give them a real shot at not only making the post-season, but winning it all.
Imagine a rotation of Felix, Hudson, Hanson, JJ, and Sheets. Even with JJ’s struggles and Sheets having only one start under his belt, that’s a much better rotation that what we’re looking at now.
Then, next season, the rotation down the stretch would be Felix, Hudson, Beachy, Hanson, and someone else.
That’s worth Teheran, Delgado, and whoever else from the system they ask for.
“Kershaw pitched a great game – who’d we face?” (Kemp)
“Cliff Lee” (Steve Lyons)
“That shows you how long the game was… ” (Kemp)
well when other people make statements of absolution using rBI’s as their evidence what am I supposed to do? agree?
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