So, trading for an ACE SP is what we need? That’ll push us over the hump?
Pretty much. Atlanta’s offense is in the top 5 of almost every category in the NL, they rank #1 in fWar. Our starters have a 4.27ERA, 19th out of 32 teams. 27th in IP, 5th most in BB’s, 23rd in K’s, 18th in WHIP. Dead last in NL fWAR
Just saw the link about the lawsuit filed against the Braves because of a foul ball.
How does this father live with himself? Dude sits his kid so close to the action as to make this a possibility. Then either doesn’t have the attention, or the skill, to defend his six-year-old.
Couldn’t possibly be his fault. Oh, I know, let’s file a lawsuit…
A shame the damn ball didn’t hit the father upside the head.
when it comes to tendering jurrjens a contract after this season, obviously you have to wait and see how the rest of the season plays out, but if i was making the decision, and jurrjens was healthy, by all accounts, id tender him. its one more year of a solid veteran. worth a shot, to me.
worth a shot? Yikes, DAP. That is a far cry from yesterdays strong backing of Jair Jurrjens.
The Phillies are sending signals that they’re planning to make an initial offer for about $130MM over six years, Heyman reports. They appear to have had some conversations with Hamels in recent days.
21.5 million per year over six years. Not bad for an initial offer. But 21.5 million isn’t what they gave Cliff Lee and I’d have a tough time signing that deal if I were Cole.
MFin may be obsessed with JJ but i’m willing to bet that if we count numbers of posts / poster mentioning JJ’s name on all and any blog this season, he will only come in at 2nd.
Sort of like you raking me over the coals constantly after every dispute between MFin and I? I’m sorry, but when a pitcher gives up 8 ER and his die hard follower blames the rest of the team for “not being into the game” – I have to question the mindset of said poster. 8 earned runs. 4th time in the last 10 starts for Jurrjens(Triple-A and Majors) that he has given up 6 earned runs or more.
Yeah, most of the time he’s great. Then there is those times he gets bombed. Thus, an ERA of around 5.50 between the two levels.
I think the motivation has to lead back to Chipper. He seems to be the most stoic player I’ve seen in quite a while. The most emotion I think I’ve seen from him recently is a big smile.
I was watching the Yankees play a game some time ago. While they were hitting, most if not all of the team were on the top dugout step rooting each other on and getting excited when something good happened for them. I just don’t see this kind of emotion on the Braves bench.
Granted I don’t watch every game, but I sure would love to see some Ron Washington excitement in that dugout even now and then.
Shame the guy it was intended for seemed to miss it. (I realize it’s too much to ask for people to read all the comments, but is it a ‘reasonable expectation’ that folks look back an hour or so? Especially when that’s when they were last commenting?)
I didn’t see many “worth a shot” posts yesterday. More like “if Wren didn’t tender him a contract for around 7 million, it would be insane to the highest degree”.
lack of motivation and don’t seem to care comments are flat out ludicrous. You really think guys are just playing out the season and not putting forth effort? I think to a man everybody on the team would kill to have Chipper at a mininum play postseason baseball and the opportunity to go out on top.
@Tony Austin…..RE: 1:54 pm post………..”Ron Washington excitement in the dug out every now and then.”
Earlier this season this occurred when a impromptu flatulence event by, I believe Mac, cleared dug out seats for an inning or two. On second thought the gassee may well have been Hinske.
The Red Sox and Marlins are discussing a trade that would sent Carl Crawford to Miami for Hanley Ramirez and Heath Bell, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. The Marlins approached the Red Sox about the possible blockbuster, Nightengale reports.
Sort of like you raking me over the coals constantly after every dispute between MFin and I?
so my making 2 or 3 comments over a period of many days when you posted literally tens of comments on this topic is raking over coal? hey, i got no problems with your dispute, tho entertainment value of that pointless debate has worn out long time back, at least for me. do what makes you happy. i’ll try my best not to hurt your feelings by posting one harmless comment after you post 50 or so, too insensitive of me.
I once asked our buddy lowercase phil to just define “consistent”, re offense, just so I could get a handle on what folks actually expect. Now, phil is a pretty sharp cookie (if a pessimistic one), and he really could not define it. And maybe therein lies the problem of reconciling the reality to the wish.
But I regard it as this: a good offensive team should be able to score 4 runs or more in a game more than half the time. A very good offensive team should be able to do that at least 60% of the time. So, for me, the model of offensive consistency is that percentage of 4-or-more. The higher that number, the more consistent is the offense.
Now, some folks might think of the winning percentage, instead. From that standpoint, I’d say the number of times that a team loses three or more in a row is relevant. I’d also look at the percentage of losses due to streaks of three or more, and likewise the the percentage of wins due to streaks of three or more. There may be some info in that analysis that’s relevant. Or not, LOL, I simply don’t know.
Bottom line is that you gotta have some idea of what actually constitutes consistency before you can start railing about a team not having it. Otherwise, how do you know which is which?
efrim More like “if Wren didn’t tender him a contract for around 7 million, it would be insane to the highest degree”
i dont usually talk like that. i said it would be stupid not to tender jurrjens. still feel that way, assuming health. why would it be stupid? because he is worth a shot for $7mil. thats not too much for him, and its a 1 year commitment. nothing has changed for me since yesterday. even with 8 ER last night.
I ain’t well-versed (see what I did there?) in the poetry, so I don’t know that this is right, but seems to me Jurrjens needs a spanking. That’s my take, anyway…
One scout suggested the Angels could obtain Hamels for Peter Bourjos and prospects Jean Segura and John Hellweg, but other executives say they’d be shocked if the Phillies get that much for Hamels given the new rules regulating draft pick compensation.
–MLB(copy/paste)Rumors
Another reason I don’t see Grienke costing as much in prospects…
i’ll try my best not to hurt your feelings by posting one harmless comment after you post 50 or so
Just sort of a bizarre interjection is all. I mean, our starting pitching is pretty poor, right? I’d say one of the reasons for such a low mark in the NL is Jair Jurrjens, right? So when I see a blogger make some comments that make my brain bleed, I have to question why they aren’t seeing the big bold black text on a white sheet of paper.
“Raking over the coals” – strong. My apologies. But I won’t stop arguing with posts that are absolutely ludicrous.
abeeewright – in 16% of our games, we have either scored one run or been shut out. Yet, we are third in the NL in runs scored.
That is what I’m talking about.
The Red Sox and Marlins are discussing a trade that would send Carl Crawford to Miami for Hanley Ramirez and Heath Bell, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. The Marlins approached the Red Sox about the possible blockbuster, Nightengale reports.
What in the bloody hell?
There’s no current discussion involving Crawford, Ramirez and Bell, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (on Twitter). The idea surfaced briefly as a concept and immediately died.
Bottom line is that you gotta have some idea of what actually constitutes consistency before you can start railing about a team not having it. Otherwise, how do you know which is which?
I would think average number of runs per game and standard deviation would fully characterize the consistency of an offense, assuming that offenses tend to follow a Gaussian distribution.
The “awfense” folks would present that the Braves offense is bimodal … no runs or gazillion runs. So, the average is good, but the distribution is misleading.
Fully characterizing consistency shouldn’t be rocket surgery.
Our 2012 Braves are 26-11 (.702) when the recipient of a quality start. 23-29 (.442) when not getting quality starts. Starting pitching is the problem no matter how you add it up.
abeeewright – in 16% of our games, we have either scored one run or been shut out. Yet, we are third in the NL in runs scored.
That is what I’m talking about.
The cards have done so in 12% of their games, played two less, and score 26 more runs. :shrug:
Bob Nightengale says the Braves have interest in Sanchez. Pretty good pitcher…free agent after this season.
Bob Nightengale was also the one who reported that the Red Sox and Marlins were “in talks” about a Hanley/Bell for Crawford swap. That rumor has since been squashed. Which tells me either a)Nightengale is speculating or b)his sources are within the Marlins organization, and are only giving him things that the Marlins would like the media report. My guess is that B) is more likely.
Which doesn’t mean that it’s true or untrue that the Braves are pursuing Sanchez. But for the idea to be out there can only benefit the asking price the Marlins might give to other teams for Sanchez, true or not.
Sanchez makes more sense. If the Marlins are selling, which they should, Sanchez is an obvious piece they should move. Also makes sense the Braves would be interested. He’s somewhere between Dempster and Garza, I think.
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale
If the #Marlins do decide they’re out of it, Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson also will go. #Braves have expressed interest in Sanchez.
Wow. Typical Marlin house cleaning. Infante, Ramirez, Johnson, Sanchez. Yikes.
jaysonst Jayson Stark
A huge factor to keep in mind if #Marlins sell: They can’t even hint to fan base that this is another fire sale, not in Year 1 of new park
That would probably mean more along the lines of Omar Infante, Randy Choate and Anibal Sanchez. Not Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez.
“8 earned runs. 4th time in the last 10 starts for Jurrjens(Triple-A and Majors) that he has given up 6 earned runs or more.”
Cherry picking stats at best. He has had 4 good starts to one bad start. Who the heck digs into AAA starts for stats? That is absurd. You can use his last 5 MLB starts and that is it. If you want to go back to the beginning of the year, that also is absurd and pointless to use for any useful comparison.
Last night wasn’t all on Jair. It wasn’t. The defense was bad, he was bad, the ump was bad, the offense was bad. Lots of bad things. Just seemed like another case of the Mondays…just delayed a day. Not to mention he was what 10 days between starts? A lot of anomalies in that one game as opposed to his previous 4.
The guy is 3-1 since coming back for the Braves. .750 winning percentage. Guy is contributing to this team making the playoffs. Whine about his stats, or AAA stats all you want, the guy is helping the Braves win ballgames. He didn’t last night, but he did for all of his other starts.
Cherry picking stats at best. He has had 4 good starts to one bad start. Who the heck digs into AAA starts for stats? That is absurd. You can use his last 5 MLB starts and that is it. If you want to go back to the beginning of the year, that also is absurd and pointless to use for any useful comparison.
Why is what he did in Triple-A not something we should look at? Don’t we care about results at all? Oh wait, I remember. His stuff was better evven though he was giving up 6 ER+ and finished with an ERA over 5 through 10 AAA starts.
You can use his last 5 MLB starts and that is it
Again with the incredibly small sample sizes that you like to use. Why not incorporate as much as we can get from Jurrjens since his physical limitations were present and serious?
The guy is 3-1 since coming back for the Braves. .750 winning percentage. Guy is contributing to this team making the playoffs.
That’s fine, but if you’d dig deeper than that – you’d see that there were some warning signs heading into last nights start. It exploded. And we have what we have. I’ll hope for better next start. I think I’d give him the ball over Polished. But when they acquire another starter, it won’t be Hanson, Hudson, Sheets going down – so they’ll have to make a decision between Jair and Polsihed(if he isn’t traded).
Can’t play SS, right? Kinda a big problem, since that is where we really need him. But I’d love to have him back too, but seems a waste for him to be a bench guy. Probably wants to start everyday.
Infante makes perfect sense for Detroit. They have a more obvious need for him than do the Braves.
As well as money to pay him. The Braves could use him for sure, but the upgrade from Janish/Pastornicky to Infante isn’t nearly as great as the upgrade from whoever the hell Detroit has to Infante would be.
Infante can play SS. Not great, but he can play it. Probably a little better at it than Prado, not as good as Wilson/Janish. Similar level to Pastornicky I would guess.
I agree Dempster is better than Sanchez, but maybe not by as much as one would think. And I think the bidding war over Dempster may make Sanchez a better value. Too many variables, but it’s just another name to think about.
Everything seemed to be off last night, except for a few base knocks by Fat Freddie and Prado….
Just wasn’t our day. Hoping for at least a better showing tonight….
The tendency to win 4 or 5 in a row, then lose an equal number in a row gets old…..and no, I don’t have stats to back that up and I’m not trying to be literal.
Hey if it were between getting a true front liner like Greinke and standing pat with the pen and bench, OR getting Anibal Sanchez and also a real good RP and maybe even a bat off the bench … I’ll go with the latter myself. One pither isn’t going to make as big an impact as SP and a few other pieces the team really needs.
“That’s fine, but if you’d dig deeper than that – you’d see that there were some warning signs heading into last nights start”
Yeh, but I think we’ve all been over this. Jurrjens will always have warning signs since he doesn’t strike guys out and pitches to contact. I mean he will. His numbers will never dazzle. His results might, but his numbers won’t. I’m ok with that. If he wants to give up a lot of hits and walk guys, that is fine as long as he doesn’t give up runs. Last night he did get burned a little bit, but to be honest he was one or two plays/calls away from pitching deep into that game.
I’d like to see him back out there on normal rest and get himself back into a routine/groove. I think that will probably help Hudson and Hanson too. Sheets the only guy who has pitched well, actually was pitching on normal rest as opposed to the other guys who weren’t sharp.
I’m with you though and “I’ll hope for better next start.”
Coach – “23-29 when not getting a quality start”. That’s six innings of three runs or less, right?
Would you not expect your offense to score three runs? Would scoring one run or less in 16% of our games figure into this?
I don’t know. I just don’t see it that way.
>>>>>>>
I though I explained this concept yesterday. 6 innings, 3 earned runs (4.50 ERA) is the cut off. It does not, never did and never will define the term…quality start. A quality start is anything better than six innings and three earned runs. Somehow people seem to actually think that all quality starts are 6 innings 3 runs, when in fact less than ten percent of the term “quality start” consists of such description.
He turned completely around and showed up the plate umpire on a pitch that was off the plate. Not exactly the way to endear that particular bonehead in blue to oneself….
Hey if it were between getting a true front liner like Greinke and standing pat with the pen and bench, OR getting Anibal Sanchez and also a real good RP and maybe even a bat off the bench … I’ll go with the latter myself. One pither isn’t going to make as big an impact as SP and a few other pieces the team really needs.
I completely disagree. Over the course of 162 games, your point is a valid one, and I’d rather have depth than a single player. But the situation the Braves find themselves in right now is in the thick of a playoff race, with a chance at either a wild card or a division title. If they win the division, then Grienke could start 2 of 5 games, which is likely to have a much greater impact on the series than one more relief pitcher, a bench bat, and Anibal Sanchez could. If they win a wild card, Grienke would likely be starting a ONE game playoff, and I absolutely want the best possible pitcher we can have in that situation. Starting pitchers are like the quarterbacks of baseball….if you don’t have good ones, you aren’t going anywhere in the playoffs.
“Somehow people seem to actually think that all quality starts are 6 innings 3 runs, when in fact less than ten percent of the term “quality start” consists of such description.”
I believe 6 innings, 3 runs is the definition of Zach Greinke’s career numbers, right? Not an Ace, and not worth $20 million a year.
1,929 comments Add your comment
ncscoots
July 18th, 2012
1:33 pm
No you were wrong
As you wish. Moving on…
brian
July 18th, 2012
1:33 pm
I still think that Shields is the best fit for what is out there. I also have no problem adding Liriano if the price is right
unbelievable
July 18th, 2012
1:35 pm
So, trading for an ACE SP is what we need? That’ll push us over the hump?
Pretty much. Atlanta’s offense is in the top 5 of almost every category in the NL, they rank #1 in fWar. Our starters have a 4.27ERA, 19th out of 32 teams. 27th in IP, 5th most in BB’s, 23rd in K’s, 18th in WHIP. Dead last in NL fWAR
DAP
July 18th, 2012
1:37 pm
scoots MF was talking about this year, so, technically, I was correct, LOL.
you totally were.
George
July 18th, 2012
1:39 pm
Outta here, just hopeing we get it back together tonight.
Jimmy
July 18th, 2012
1:43 pm
“Atlanta’s offense is in the top 5 of almost every category in the NL”
I probably shouldn’t have waded into this again. Already been hashed out.
The offense is inconsistant to an extreme. That will not get you deep into the PS.
I’m starting to think the team (as a whole) lacks motivation. I’ll let that point where ever it leads to.
Arkansas Transplant
July 18th, 2012
1:44 pm
Uggla plus Terdo to Detroit for Castellanos and Young.
Bay Area Steve
July 18th, 2012
1:45 pm
Just saw the link about the lawsuit filed against the Braves because of a foul ball.
How does this father live with himself? Dude sits his kid so close to the action as to make this a possibility. Then either doesn’t have the attention, or the skill, to defend his six-year-old.
Couldn’t possibly be his fault. Oh, I know, let’s file a lawsuit…
A shame the damn ball didn’t hit the father upside the head.
Efrim
July 18th, 2012
1:47 pm
when it comes to tendering jurrjens a contract after this season, obviously you have to wait and see how the rest of the season plays out, but if i was making the decision, and jurrjens was healthy, by all accounts, id tender him. its one more year of a solid veteran. worth a shot, to me.
worth a shot? Yikes, DAP. That is a far cry from yesterdays strong backing of Jair Jurrjens.
Efrim
July 18th, 2012
1:48 pm
The Phillies are sending signals that they’re planning to make an initial offer for about $130MM over six years, Heyman reports. They appear to have had some conversations with Hamels in recent days.
21.5 million per year over six years. Not bad for an initial offer. But 21.5 million isn’t what they gave Cliff Lee and I’d have a tough time signing that deal if I were Cole.
abeeewright
July 18th, 2012
1:51 pm
MFin04, July 18th, 2012, 1:18 pm …
Uggla’s career numbers with the Braves…In ~250 Games: .229 .326 .432 .758
Pre-Braves numbers: .263 .349 .488 .837
Age-related decline. No other explanation.
ncscoots
July 18th, 2012
1:53 pm
A shame the damn ball didn’t hit the father upside the head.
Some days, it just ain’t a righteous world, brother.
cricket
July 18th, 2012
1:53 pm
Age-related decline. No other explanation.
not facing braves’ pitchers
Efrim
July 18th, 2012
1:53 pm
MFin may be obsessed with JJ but i’m willing to bet that if we count numbers of posts / poster mentioning JJ’s name on all and any blog this season, he will only come in at 2nd.
Sort of like you raking me over the coals constantly after every dispute between MFin and I? I’m sorry, but when a pitcher gives up 8 ER and his die hard follower blames the rest of the team for “not being into the game” – I have to question the mindset of said poster. 8 earned runs. 4th time in the last 10 starts for Jurrjens(Triple-A and Majors) that he has given up 6 earned runs or more.
Yeah, most of the time he’s great. Then there is those times he gets bombed. Thus, an ERA of around 5.50 between the two levels.
ncscoots
July 18th, 2012
1:54 pm
Age-related decline. No other explanation.
That’s a reasonable expectation.
tony austin
July 18th, 2012
1:54 pm
I think the motivation has to lead back to Chipper. He seems to be the most stoic player I’ve seen in quite a while. The most emotion I think I’ve seen from him recently is a big smile.
I was watching the Yankees play a game some time ago. While they were hitting, most if not all of the team were on the top dugout step rooting each other on and getting excited when something good happened for them. I just don’t see this kind of emotion on the Braves bench.
Granted I don’t watch every game, but I sure would love to see some Ron Washington excitement in that dugout even now and then.
abeeewright
July 18th, 2012
1:55 pm
Jimmy, July 18th, 2012, 1:43 pm … “The offense is inconsistant to an extreme. “
I would love to hear an example of an offense that has been consistently good over an entire mlb season. Any offense. Just name one.
There must be one?
Bat Masterson
July 18th, 2012
1:58 pm
BAS_
Excellent comment re JJ last night.
DAP
July 18th, 2012
2:01 pm
efrim That is a far cry from yesterdays strong backing of Jair Jurrjens.
no it isnt. my position hasnt changed.
Coach (2012 Fredi's Beisbol Fandango)
July 18th, 2012
2:01 pm
Our offense could have scored eight runs last night and we would have still lost. Offense isn’t the problem.
Efrim
July 18th, 2012
2:01 pm
Yes, most likely. RT @aplaceforfacts: @ajcbraves Prado is the future 3B, no? We’ll be looking at CFs and LFs in offseason.
Best news of the last 24 hours. a) Looking to lock up Prado to a long term deal during the season. b) Playing him at 3rd base instead of Left Field.
Bay Area Steve
July 18th, 2012
2:03 pm
Thanks Bat. You too, Tater, by the way.
Shame the guy it was intended for seemed to miss it. (I realize it’s too much to ask for people to read all the comments, but is it a ‘reasonable expectation’ that folks look back an hour or so? Especially when that’s when they were last commenting?)
Efrim
July 18th, 2012
2:03 pm
no it isnt. my position hasnt changed.
I didn’t see many “worth a shot” posts yesterday. More like “if Wren didn’t tender him a contract for around 7 million, it would be insane to the highest degree”.
Efrim
July 18th, 2012
2:04 pm
Excellent comment re JJ last night.
I didn’t see this and can’t find it….
Frankie
July 18th, 2012
2:05 pm
lack of motivation and don’t seem to care comments are flat out ludicrous. You really think guys are just playing out the season and not putting forth effort? I think to a man everybody on the team would kill to have Chipper at a mininum play postseason baseball and the opportunity to go out on top.
Frankie
July 18th, 2012
2:05 pm
offense prior to last night averaged over 6 runs a game with a 7 game winning streak.
Capt.Mudd
July 18th, 2012
2:06 pm
@Tony Austin…..RE: 1:54 pm post………..”Ron Washington excitement in the dug out every now and then.”
Earlier this season this occurred when a impromptu flatulence event by, I believe Mac, cleared dug out seats for an inning or two. On second thought the gassee may well have been Hinske.
Bay Area Steve
July 18th, 2012
2:06 pm
Don’t bother, Ef. Something about signing him to a 5/$50 million deal, or the like. Just a little slump, is all.
unbelievable
July 18th, 2012
2:07 pm
No way the Marlins are about to trade Hanley and Bell for Carl Crawford. Right?
unbelievable
July 18th, 2012
2:07 pm
Can we give them Uggla back for Josh Johnson?
TennesseePaul
July 18th, 2012
2:08 pm
Best news of the last 24 hours. a) …
I must have missed this news brief, where was this?
tony austin
July 18th, 2012
2:08 pm
Good stuff Capt. Mudd
Rumors are rumors and that is all they are, rumors. That said, I just read this on http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
The Red Sox and Marlins are discussing a trade that would sent Carl Crawford to Miami for Hanley Ramirez and Heath Bell, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. The Marlins approached the Red Sox about the possible blockbuster, Nightengale reports.
abeeewright
July 18th, 2012
2:09 pm
Just to go on the record … Jurrjens was bad last night. He was missing location rather badly and into the zone.
So, we might want to call Jair “That Little Girl”
THERE WAS A LITTLE GIRL
by Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
There was a little girl,
And she had a little curl
Right in the middle of her forehead.
When she was good
She was very, very good,
And when she was bad she was horrid.
One day she went upstairs,
When her parents, unawares,
In the kitchen were occupied with meals,
And she stood upon her head
In her little trundle-bed,
And then began hooraying with her heels.
Her mother heard the noise,
And she thought it was the boys
A-playing at a combat in the attic;
But when she climbed the stair,
And found Jemima there,
She took and she did spank her most emphatic.
cricket
July 18th, 2012
2:09 pm
Sort of like you raking me over the coals constantly after every dispute between MFin and I?
so my making 2 or 3 comments over a period of many days when you posted literally tens of comments on this topic is raking over coal? hey, i got no problems with your dispute, tho entertainment value of that pointless debate has worn out long time back, at least for me. do what makes you happy. i’ll try my best not to hurt your feelings by posting one harmless comment after you post 50 or so, too insensitive of me.
Efrim
July 18th, 2012
2:10 pm
Something about signing him to a 5/$50 million deal, or the like. Just a little slump, is all.
You’re too much.
49er football only seven and a half weeks away…..
ncscoots
July 18th, 2012
2:10 pm
There must be one?
I once asked our buddy lowercase phil to just define “consistent”, re offense, just so I could get a handle on what folks actually expect. Now, phil is a pretty sharp cookie (if a pessimistic one), and he really could not define it. And maybe therein lies the problem of reconciling the reality to the wish.
But I regard it as this: a good offensive team should be able to score 4 runs or more in a game more than half the time. A very good offensive team should be able to do that at least 60% of the time. So, for me, the model of offensive consistency is that percentage of 4-or-more. The higher that number, the more consistent is the offense.
Now, some folks might think of the winning percentage, instead. From that standpoint, I’d say the number of times that a team loses three or more in a row is relevant. I’d also look at the percentage of losses due to streaks of three or more, and likewise the the percentage of wins due to streaks of three or more. There may be some info in that analysis that’s relevant. Or not, LOL, I simply don’t know.
Bottom line is that you gotta have some idea of what actually constitutes consistency before you can start railing about a team not having it. Otherwise, how do you know which is which?
Arkansas Transplant
July 18th, 2012
2:10 pm
unbelievable, I’d just assume we traded Uggla to Detroit. They’ve been in need of a 2nd baseman for a while and they have money to spend.
DAP
July 18th, 2012
2:11 pm
efrim More like “if Wren didn’t tender him a contract for around 7 million, it would be insane to the highest degree”
i dont usually talk like that. i said it would be stupid not to tender jurrjens. still feel that way, assuming health. why would it be stupid? because he is worth a shot for $7mil. thats not too much for him, and its a 1 year commitment. nothing has changed for me since yesterday. even with 8 ER last night.
Bay Area Steve
July 18th, 2012
2:11 pm
I ain’t well-versed (see what I did there?) in the poetry, so I don’t know that this is right, but seems to me Jurrjens needs a spanking. That’s my take, anyway…
TennesseePaul
July 18th, 2012
2:13 pm
One scout suggested the Angels could obtain Hamels for Peter Bourjos and prospects Jean Segura and John Hellweg, but other executives say they’d be shocked if the Phillies get that much for Hamels given the new rules regulating draft pick compensation.
–MLB(copy/paste)Rumors
Another reason I don’t see Grienke costing as much in prospects…
Efrim
July 18th, 2012
2:14 pm
i’ll try my best not to hurt your feelings by posting one harmless comment after you post 50 or so
Just sort of a bizarre interjection is all. I mean, our starting pitching is pretty poor, right? I’d say one of the reasons for such a low mark in the NL is Jair Jurrjens, right? So when I see a blogger make some comments that make my brain bleed, I have to question why they aren’t seeing the big bold black text on a white sheet of paper.
“Raking over the coals” – strong. My apologies. But I won’t stop arguing with posts that are absolutely ludicrous.
Efrim
July 18th, 2012
2:15 pm
–MLB(copy/paste)Rumors
Awesome.
Jimmy
July 18th, 2012
2:16 pm
abeeewright – in 16% of our games, we have either scored one run or been shut out. Yet, we are third in the NL in runs scored.
That is what I’m talking about.
Efrim
July 18th, 2012
2:17 pm
The Red Sox and Marlins are discussing a trade that would send Carl Crawford to Miami for Hanley Ramirez and Heath Bell, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. The Marlins approached the Red Sox about the possible blockbuster, Nightengale reports.
What in the bloody hell?
There’s no current discussion involving Crawford, Ramirez and Bell, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (on Twitter). The idea surfaced briefly as a concept and immediately died.
Okay then.
Capt.Mudd
July 18th, 2012
2:19 pm
She brought her “A game” and was aptly rewarded.
abeeewright
July 18th, 2012
2:19 pm
Bottom line is that you gotta have some idea of what actually constitutes consistency before you can start railing about a team not having it. Otherwise, how do you know which is which?
I would think average number of runs per game and standard deviation would fully characterize the consistency of an offense, assuming that offenses tend to follow a Gaussian distribution.
The “awfense” folks would present that the Braves offense is bimodal … no runs or gazillion runs. So, the average is good, but the distribution is misleading.
Fully characterizing consistency shouldn’t be rocket surgery.
Hillbilly
July 18th, 2012
2:21 pm
Exactly. I said the other day that he’s a quarter-inch from going beast, and I stick with that.
I was just about to come here and make a scootsian “Hurt Locker” prediction on Uggla and I see you beat me to it.
I say Uggla does the Blue-Seat Boogie more than once between now and the end of the day Sunday.
abeeewright
July 18th, 2012
2:21 pm
Jimmy, July 18th, 2012, 2:16 pm … “in 16% of our games, we have either scored one run or been shut out. Yet, we are third in the NL in runs scored.
Braves are also 49-40 with less than stellar starting pitching.
Capt.Mudd
July 18th, 2012
2:21 pm
Before I exit…..Hello to BAS!
abeeewright
July 18th, 2012
2:22 pm
” but seems to me Jurrjens needs a spanking”
I think the Giants obliged last night.
Coach (2012 Fredi's Beisbol Fandango)
July 18th, 2012
2:22 pm
Concerning Dan Uggla. Tough, gritty ball player that he is, Uggla has never been a productive four hole hitter under the management of Fredi Gonzalez.
ncscoots
July 18th, 2012
2:23 pm
assuming that offenses tend to follow a Gaussian distribution.
Do they, you think? That seems logical, but baseball has a way of conforming to illogic, when you least expect it.
TennesseePaul
July 18th, 2012
2:26 pm
assuming that offenses tend to follow a Gaussian distribution.
They don’t.
Coach (2012 Fredi's Beisbol Fandango)
July 18th, 2012
2:27 pm
Our 2012 Braves are 26-11 (.702) when the recipient of a quality start. 23-29 (.442) when not getting quality starts. Starting pitching is the problem no matter how you add it up.
abeeewright
July 18th, 2012
2:33 pm
Do they, you think? [offenses would follow a Gaussian distro]
I actually think it would be unusual (especially since you get 162 entries per year … not great for approximating a distribution).
However, in my years in teaching, students (more than 15 in a class) fall eerily into a Gaussian distribution. So, why not offenses?
phil
July 18th, 2012
2:33 pm
Fire whomever was responsible for the 9-0 loss last night….
And fire em now!!
Brian from SC
July 18th, 2012
2:34 pm
What about Anibal Sanchez?
Efrim
July 18th, 2012
2:35 pm
I’m not that worried about Uggla. It’s still early. He’ll get hot.
Brian from SC
July 18th, 2012
2:36 pm
Bob Nightengale says the Braves have interest in Sanchez. Pretty good pitcher…free agent after this season.
Bat Masterson
July 18th, 2012
2:36 pm
abeeewright – in 16% of our games, we have either scored one run or been shut out. Yet, we are third in the NL in runs scored.
That is what I’m talking about.
The cards have done so in 12% of their games, played two less, and score 26 more runs. :shrug:
Efrim
July 18th, 2012
2:38 pm
Jason Heyward has a .563 SLG vs. RHP in 2012 compared to .418 in 2011 and .484 in 2010.
RC
July 18th, 2012
2:39 pm
Bob Nightengale says the Braves have interest in Sanchez. Pretty good pitcher…free agent after this season.
Bob Nightengale was also the one who reported that the Red Sox and Marlins were “in talks” about a Hanley/Bell for Crawford swap. That rumor has since been squashed. Which tells me either a)Nightengale is speculating or b)his sources are within the Marlins organization, and are only giving him things that the Marlins would like the media report. My guess is that B) is more likely.
RC
July 18th, 2012
2:40 pm
Which doesn’t mean that it’s true or untrue that the Braves are pursuing Sanchez. But for the idea to be out there can only benefit the asking price the Marlins might give to other teams for Sanchez, true or not.
Brian from SC
July 18th, 2012
2:40 pm
Sanchez makes more sense. If the Marlins are selling, which they should, Sanchez is an obvious piece they should move. Also makes sense the Braves would be interested. He’s somewhere between Dempster and Garza, I think.
TennesseePaul
July 18th, 2012
2:40 pm
However, in my years in teaching, students (more than 15 in a class) fall eerily into a Gaussian distribution. So, why not offenses?
It doesn’t.
Efrim
July 18th, 2012
2:41 pm
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale
If the #Marlins do decide they’re out of it, Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson also will go. #Braves have expressed interest in Sanchez.
Wow. Typical Marlin house cleaning. Infante, Ramirez, Johnson, Sanchez. Yikes.
Brian from SC
July 18th, 2012
2:41 pm
“Interested in” is different from “pursuing”. Nightengale says the Braves are interested, and they should be, honestly.
RC
July 18th, 2012
2:41 pm
I’m not that worried about Uggla. It’s still early. He’ll get hot.
I’m not willing to say it’s “early”, but I do expect Uggla to get better soon.
Brian from SC
July 18th, 2012
2:42 pm
The more starters are on the market, the lower the prices go.
Coach (2012 Fredi's Beisbol Fandango)
July 18th, 2012
2:42 pm
abeeewright wrote: Fully characterizing consistency shouldn’t be rocket surgery.
>>>>>
Dear sir, what in hades is rocket surgery?
Jimmy
July 18th, 2012
2:43 pm
Coach – “23-29 when not getting a quality start”. That’s six innings of three runs or less, right?
Would you not expect your offense to score three runs? Would scoring one run or less in 16% of our games figure into this?
I don’t know. I just don’t see it that way.
Efrim
July 18th, 2012
2:44 pm
jaysonst Jayson Stark
A huge factor to keep in mind if #Marlins sell: They can’t even hint to fan base that this is another fire sale, not in Year 1 of new park
That would probably mean more along the lines of Omar Infante, Randy Choate and Anibal Sanchez. Not Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez.
DAP
July 18th, 2012
2:44 pm
phil Fire whomever was responsible for the 9-0 loss last night….
barry zito?
MFin04
July 18th, 2012
2:44 pm
“8 earned runs. 4th time in the last 10 starts for Jurrjens(Triple-A and Majors) that he has given up 6 earned runs or more.”
Cherry picking stats at best. He has had 4 good starts to one bad start. Who the heck digs into AAA starts for stats? That is absurd. You can use his last 5 MLB starts and that is it. If you want to go back to the beginning of the year, that also is absurd and pointless to use for any useful comparison.
Last night wasn’t all on Jair. It wasn’t. The defense was bad, he was bad, the ump was bad, the offense was bad. Lots of bad things. Just seemed like another case of the Mondays…just delayed a day. Not to mention he was what 10 days between starts? A lot of anomalies in that one game as opposed to his previous 4.
The guy is 3-1 since coming back for the Braves. .750 winning percentage. Guy is contributing to this team making the playoffs. Whine about his stats, or AAA stats all you want, the guy is helping the Braves win ballgames. He didn’t last night, but he did for all of his other starts.
Efrim
July 18th, 2012
2:45 pm
Insane deadline coming. Lots of tough decisions for General Managers.
DAP
July 18th, 2012
2:45 pm
if they’re selling, i wouldnt mind having infante back at all.
Brian from SC
July 18th, 2012
2:46 pm
Infante makes perfect sense for Detroit. They have a more obvious need for him than do the Braves.
Efrim
July 18th, 2012
2:48 pm
Cherry picking stats at best. He has had 4 good starts to one bad start. Who the heck digs into AAA starts for stats? That is absurd. You can use his last 5 MLB starts and that is it. If you want to go back to the beginning of the year, that also is absurd and pointless to use for any useful comparison.
Why is what he did in Triple-A not something we should look at? Don’t we care about results at all? Oh wait, I remember. His stuff was better evven though he was giving up 6 ER+ and finished with an ERA over 5 through 10 AAA starts.
You can use his last 5 MLB starts and that is it
Again with the incredibly small sample sizes that you like to use. Why not incorporate as much as we can get from Jurrjens since his physical limitations were present and serious?
unbelievable
July 18th, 2012
2:49 pm
Sanchez isnt as good as Dempster.
Jimmy
July 18th, 2012
2:50 pm
Coach – “Dear sir, what in hades is rocket surgery?”
You honestly don’t know?
You don’t have to be a Brain Scientist to figure that out.
Efrim
July 18th, 2012
2:50 pm
The guy is 3-1 since coming back for the Braves. .750 winning percentage. Guy is contributing to this team making the playoffs.
That’s fine, but if you’d dig deeper than that – you’d see that there were some warning signs heading into last nights start. It exploded. And we have what we have. I’ll hope for better next start. I think I’d give him the ball over Polished. But when they acquire another starter, it won’t be Hanson, Hudson, Sheets going down – so they’ll have to make a decision between Jair and Polsihed(if he isn’t traded).
MFin04
July 18th, 2012
2:50 pm
“i wouldnt mind having infante back at all.”
Can’t play SS, right? Kinda a big problem, since that is where we really need him. But I’d love to have him back too, but seems a waste for him to be a bench guy. Probably wants to start everyday.
RC
July 18th, 2012
2:50 pm
Infante makes perfect sense for Detroit. They have a more obvious need for him than do the Braves.
As well as money to pay him. The Braves could use him for sure, but the upgrade from Janish/Pastornicky to Infante isn’t nearly as great as the upgrade from whoever the hell Detroit has to Infante would be.
Braves need arms. Bullpen or rotation.
phil
July 18th, 2012
2:51 pm
DAP
July 18th, 2012
2:44 pm
phil Fire whomever was responsible for the 9-0 loss last night….
barry zito?
************
To easy to blame the obvious….lol
A head must roll.
RC
July 18th, 2012
2:52 pm
“i wouldnt mind having infante back at all.”
Can’t play SS, right?
Infante can play SS. Not great, but he can play it. Probably a little better at it than Prado, not as good as Wilson/Janish. Similar level to Pastornicky I would guess.
Brian from SC
July 18th, 2012
2:53 pm
I agree Dempster is better than Sanchez, but maybe not by as much as one would think. And I think the bidding war over Dempster may make Sanchez a better value. Too many variables, but it’s just another name to think about.
unbelievable
July 18th, 2012
2:53 pm
The guy is 3-1 since coming back for the Braves. .750 winning percentage.
The offense scored 18 runs in those 3 games also.
phil
July 18th, 2012
2:54 pm
Everything seemed to be off last night, except for a few base knocks by Fat Freddie and Prado….
Just wasn’t our day. Hoping for at least a better showing tonight….
The tendency to win 4 or 5 in a row, then lose an equal number in a row gets old…..and no, I don’t have stats to back that up and I’m not trying to be literal.
ChattTownBrian
July 18th, 2012
2:54 pm
Hey if it were between getting a true front liner like Greinke and standing pat with the pen and bench, OR getting Anibal Sanchez and also a real good RP and maybe even a bat off the bench … I’ll go with the latter myself. One pither isn’t going to make as big an impact as SP and a few other pieces the team really needs.
MFin04
July 18th, 2012
2:55 pm
“That’s fine, but if you’d dig deeper than that – you’d see that there were some warning signs heading into last nights start”
Yeh, but I think we’ve all been over this. Jurrjens will always have warning signs since he doesn’t strike guys out and pitches to contact. I mean he will. His numbers will never dazzle. His results might, but his numbers won’t. I’m ok with that. If he wants to give up a lot of hits and walk guys, that is fine as long as he doesn’t give up runs. Last night he did get burned a little bit, but to be honest he was one or two plays/calls away from pitching deep into that game.
I’d like to see him back out there on normal rest and get himself back into a routine/groove. I think that will probably help Hudson and Hanson too. Sheets the only guy who has pitched well, actually was pitching on normal rest as opposed to the other guys who weren’t sharp.
I’m with you though and “I’ll hope for better next start.”
Coach (2012 Fredi's Beisbol Fandango)
July 18th, 2012
2:55 pm
Jimmy
July 18th, 2012
2:43 pm
Coach – “23-29 when not getting a quality start”. That’s six innings of three runs or less, right?
Would you not expect your offense to score three runs? Would scoring one run or less in 16% of our games figure into this?
I don’t know. I just don’t see it that way.
>>>>>>>
I though I explained this concept yesterday. 6 innings, 3 earned runs (4.50 ERA) is the cut off. It does not, never did and never will define the term…quality start. A quality start is anything better than six innings and three earned runs. Somehow people seem to actually think that all quality starts are 6 innings 3 runs, when in fact less than ten percent of the term “quality start” consists of such description.
Jimmy
July 18th, 2012
2:55 pm
Bat – Thanks for pointing out those stats on the Cardinals. Seems they are similar to us in that matter.
They need to get more pitching over there too.
phil
July 18th, 2012
2:57 pm
JJ isn’t the brightest bulb anyway….
He turned completely around and showed up the plate umpire on a pitch that was off the plate. Not exactly the way to endear that particular bonehead in blue to oneself….
TennesseePaul
July 18th, 2012
2:57 pm
Enter your comments here
phil
July 18th, 2012
2:58 pm
Great.
Coach is giving another lecture on the quality start. Where’s my tenth story window?
RC
July 18th, 2012
2:58 pm
Hey if it were between getting a true front liner like Greinke and standing pat with the pen and bench, OR getting Anibal Sanchez and also a real good RP and maybe even a bat off the bench … I’ll go with the latter myself. One pither isn’t going to make as big an impact as SP and a few other pieces the team really needs.
I completely disagree. Over the course of 162 games, your point is a valid one, and I’d rather have depth than a single player. But the situation the Braves find themselves in right now is in the thick of a playoff race, with a chance at either a wild card or a division title. If they win the division, then Grienke could start 2 of 5 games, which is likely to have a much greater impact on the series than one more relief pitcher, a bench bat, and Anibal Sanchez could. If they win a wild card, Grienke would likely be starting a ONE game playoff, and I absolutely want the best possible pitcher we can have in that situation. Starting pitchers are like the quarterbacks of baseball….if you don’t have good ones, you aren’t going anywhere in the playoffs.
MFin04
July 18th, 2012
2:59 pm
“Somehow people seem to actually think that all quality starts are 6 innings 3 runs, when in fact less than ten percent of the term “quality start” consists of such description.”
I believe 6 innings, 3 runs is the definition of Zach Greinke’s career numbers, right? Not an Ace, and not worth $20 million a year.
David O'Brien
July 18th, 2012
2:59 pm
NEW BLOGGAGE
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2012/07/18/braves-rotation-has-been-overall-disappointment/
Jimmy
July 18th, 2012
3:00 pm
Coach – I got ya. But if you get a so-called qaulity start, but your offense fails to score three runs, then you still have a loss.
Sidenote : Who came up with that stat anyway? 4.50 is not something to be proud of.
unbelievable
July 18th, 2012
3:00 pm
If he wants to give up a lot of hits and walk guys, that is fine as long as he doesn’t give up runs.
That formula cant sustain good results. His velocity has dropped, he has his career low in k/9, and career high in BB/9.