Efrim – I agree, but there are plenty here who believe it. And Grienke’s and Hanson’s peripherals are eerily identical. Just can’t understand the love for one and the seeming hatred for the other.
Teheran needs more movement on his fastball which tends to flatten out and more control over all his pitches. He also needs to work on hiding the ball better – sounds like it is way too easy to pick the ball up out of his windup. He has a very good change up and flashed a better breaking pitch in his one start this year than we have seen from him before. Hopefully they will find the right adjustment to the delivery and to his fastball grip
As discussed earlier this morning, Hanson’s ceiling is no longer where it used to be. But he can still be a solid #2-#3 starter for a good rotation. He just isn’t going to be the ace we all thought we wer getting, mostly because of the shoulder injury that has dropped his velocity.
Hanson and Greinke’s career numbers aren’t that different, but if you look at the last five years or so, Greinke’s peripherals are much better than Hanson’s. And Hanson has regressed the last year or two.
Will Hanson be a better pitcher than Greinke three years from now? He could be. But Greinke is a much better pitcher today. No doubt about that.
Teheran needs more fastball command, because the velocity is easy and while the ball is straight, it won’t matter if it’s placed well. The inconsistent breaking ball is the biggest problem, imo.
But I still can’t get over Ben Sheets start yesterday.
The guy is the best story in baseball so far this season. Coming back from multiple elbow surgeries, two years away from the game……and shutting down the Mets for six innings?????
Wow is an understatement. Gotta love the karma he brings to our Bravos.
they’d be idiots to consider it, brian. what a stupid thing to do.
You really think it’d be stupid to non-tender Jurrjens when he is set to make 7 million in his last year? Teams aren’t going to empty the prospect truck for him, even if he has a strong 3 months. I think we may be able to get some prospects for him, but it won’t be very much and I can imagine it going right down to the deadline with Jair. Lots of starters available this winter in free agency and through trade(as usual).
I don’t know where I’d consider Hanson, but I do know he throws way too many pitches and gives up way to many HRs to be a top of, or even close to the top of a rotation pitcher. His throwing style, which he said he adjusted but it looks exactly the same to me, makes him a pitch away from shoulder surgery.
I wouldn’t expect his trade value is too high either, so that’s not a possibility. This team just can’t expect too much out of him when he starts. Let’s just hope the offense and the bullpen is up to the challenge.
tony austin, this year is actually the first year where he’s given up a significant number of homers. He’s already matched his career high of 17. Until this year, limiting home runs was actually one of his strengths.
who do you see as the best fit for the Braves? Greinke, Liriano, Dempster, Garza, someone else?
Jerry Crasnick (1:01 PM)
Brian, Of that group, I think Dempster is the guy you’d probably feel most comfortable relying on in a pennant race. But I’m sure the Braves aren’t the only team that feels that way.
But I still can’t get over Ben Sheets start yesterday.
He really did look great. And the performance I saw matched the outcome…always a good sign. I sure wouldn’t have been able to guess he hadn’t pitched in two years by the way he was hitting his spots.
who do you see as the best fit for the Braves? Greinke, Liriano, Dempster, Garza, someone else?
Jerry Crasnick (1:01 PM)
Brian, Of that group, I think Dempster is the guy you’d probably feel most comfortable relying on in a pennant race. But I’m sure the Braves aren’t the only team that feels that way.
Grienke just ain’t all that and he’s going to cost a fortune in prospects and salary if signed long term. There is no certainty whatsoever (much less a guarantee) that he would be what we need right now – espcecially since we’re not a single piece away from putting the puzzle together. He is NOT worth it to the Braves.
Greinke’s BABIP is .338. The Brewers are next to last in Defensive Efficiency (percentage of balls in play converted in to outs) and they are somewhere between below average and near the bottom in nearly every other telling defensive metric.
In July his BABIP is. 378. Of the 20 hits he’s given up in July, 3 have been homeruns, 4 have been doubles and 1 has been a triple. He’s struck out 15 and walked 6 in 14 innings.
The Braves, by the way, are just above average in Defensive Efficiency and lead the league in Defensive Runs Saved and UZR and UZR/150.
The Brewers defense could be a significant factor in Greinke’s struggles. But all that doesn’t jive with the beliefs of the amateur psychologists out there plus it goes beyond things like ERA and fielding percentage. You actually have to do some digging into what is actually going on and can’t just make assumptions based on the narrative to which you subscribe in order to arrive at the possibility that a lot of Greinke’s struggles are a result of the Brewers’ defense, which is clearly somewhere between noticeably below average and downright sorry.
Hi all
things seem to be going well now, but we are still 3 games behind the NATS that is a big mountain to climb. To do this two things need to happen. 1] FRANK WREN needs to get one more starting pitcher 2] FREDI needs to try not to be stupid.
“But I still can’t get over Ben Sheets start yesterday.”
Especially after how bad Hudson and Hanson were. I mean the Mets offense was clicking in the first two games….so he did shut down a somewhat hot offensive team.
Shaun, I was nodding my head at your post until the last paragraph. I don’t know why you can’t just give your opinion without denigrating those who may disagree with you.
Fair enough Brian. Hopefully he can find what he had and stop with the long ball. It’s to a point now where I say to my wife, “I wonder what inning he’s going to give up the HR.”
I’m not to crazy about trading Mike Minor as I really believe we haven’t seen his best yet.
We’ve seen his best, which was pretty good… followed by his worst, his worster, and his worstest, then his mediocre, then his not too shabby…
39 starts into his major league career and I’m not all the impressed. Then I am. Then I’m not again for 3 weeks. Then I am again for one start…
I don’t think many people would miss Minor. A week after he was traded people in the dugout would be talking about him and a few people would have to be reminded of who he even was.
He won’t bring much in return, at least not a Greinke. Probably a Liriano if packaged with enough filler low-level guys
Good time to gain a bit on D.C.,? After a resurgent week and such….probably so, confidently yes. But factor in the Nationals next opponent–the reeling Mets….and the dynamic gets clouded fast. Dillon Gee injured, Santanna giving up career record number of runs…..a closer also out….a history of second half burn outs; these Muts got a hell of an uphill climb starting tomorrow.
The Duda thing mentioned earlier is a ck., left hamstring issue which was not helped by the A/S break. Of course they are capable still, they’re, at least thus far, not the team they were in the first half of this season. We need a bit of help from other teams in our division…..and, our current ’streak’ notwithstanding, I see our pitching rotation moving in the right direction.
D.C. could still stand for ‘Deep Concern’…..but if we continue like we did this last series…..16 runs in the last 13 innings…..D.C. may well be ‘Definitely Catchable.’
“especially since we’re not a single piece away from putting the puzzle together.”
I’m not sure what that means, this team is clearly capable of being the best in the NL. I mean with the Phillies almost completely done, I don’t see any reason why the Braves can’t be the best team in the NL this year.
Velocity is overrated. I mean, has anybody else caught on to the fact that Tommy’s command has improved because he’s slowed it down?
It’s no coincidence that thirteen of his starts have resulted in three runs or less given up, nor that our Braves are 13-6 when Tommy toes the rubber. The kid is learning how to pitch.
p.s. Teheran throws too hard at this juncture. Which is why he’s bullpen material and hasn’t learned how to take 2-3 MPH off his fastball in exchange for better command.
But all that doesn’t jive with the beliefs of the amateur psychologists out there plus it goes beyond things like ERA and fielding percentage.
Agreed about the “amateur psychologists”. So tired of hearing that about Greinke.
When the Brewers traded Alcides Escobar for Yuni Betancourt – near everyone said they had one of the worst defensive units out there. That’s still the case, folks. It’s as bad as there is out there.
efrim non tendering Jurrjens would really annoy me. that should not be an option, whatsoever.
Why?
because he is too good to non tender because you dont want to pay him $7-$8mil. the idea he is untradeable is ludicrous, as is the idea that he isnt worth what he would make in arbitration. y’all are crazy if you think a veteran with a 3.50 ERA isnt worth the $8mil or it will take to keep him. what else are we going to get with $8mil? Joe Blanton? Please, y’all. Jurrjens isn’t worthless like some of you seem to think he is.
Comment on Sheets. Go to Braves website and watch pitch to Wright with men in scoring position. Mac wanted outside and would not have had to move his glove a inch. Great pitch and just incredible command for a guy who hasn’t started in two years.
With the $7-8 million the Braves would save by not having Jurrjens on the roster, the Braves would probably be much more likely to re-sign Bourn or bring in some other big bat.
Greinke would be OPTIMUM if we could sign LONG-Term? Why? The Braves DO NOT have an ACE or #1 on their staff…It’s Chipper’s last year, GO AFTER GREINKE!!
That said, I think the reason Pastornicky has not played is the Braves are trading him and the TWINS seem like that fit
Brian from SC, I think anyone who thinks they know what is going on in the head of someone else deserves a certain amount of denigration. I can’t believe a professional sportswriter can get away with writing things like, “Whether he has been distracted by trade rumors or whatever, Greinke has not been sharp in July, allowing 20 hits and 14 runs in 14 innings,” without any regard to how bad the Brewers’ defense has been this season and how that relates to how often Greinke is giving up hits. You don’t need to do some sort of in-depth statistical study or an advanced degree in statistics to realize that it is very possible if not likely that Greinke has struggled because he plays in front of the Brewers’ defense.
“With the $7-8 million the Braves would save by not having Jurrjens on the roster, the Braves would probably be much more likely to re-sign Bourn or bring in some other big bat.”
Doubt it. The Braves will have the money, they just aren’t going to overpay for Bourn after his career year. Ain’t going to happen.
because he is too good to non tender because you dont want to pay him $7-$8mil. the idea he is untradeable is ludicrous, as is the idea that he isnt worth what he would make in arbitration. y’all are crazy if you think a veteran with a 3.50 ERA isnt worth the $8mil or it will take to keep him. what else are we going to get with $8mil? Joe Blanton? Please, y’all. Jurrjens isn’t worthless like some of you seem to think he is.
Were you saying this same thing on April 30th and when he was giving up 10 runs in a Triple-A game? Or are you absolutely convinced he’s back now after 4 starts?
Sigh….
Listen, maybe he can put together some good baseball for the rest of the season, but to sit here on July 16th and proclaim it’s ludicrous to non-tender Jair Jurrjens is about as equally ludicrous. And I guess you don’t care that he is a different pitcher now that he was in 2009 – but we’ve discussed this ad nauseum and you don’t prescribe to that theory. Oh well.
Shaun, all I’ve ever tried to tell you is that you’d stand a better chance of being heard and understood if you let your opinions and the numbers speak for themselves, instead of telling people how wrong they are.
“it is very possible if not likely that Greinke has struggled because he plays in front of the Brewers’ defense.”
Check his K/9, should’ve struck out more guys. Can’t whine about defense. He has to keep ALL balls from entering the field of play. Especially for $20 million.
Brian from SC, that’s the point. I’m not so much smarter than anyone else. That’s what so shocking and why I get outraged. Any idiot should be able to recognize that a lot of Greinke’s struggles lead back to the Brewers’ defense. I know people are smarter than completely ignoring the Brewers’ defense as a factor. It’s like they don’t really want to bother adding 1 + 1 to get 2. They would rather get 5, for whatever reason.
I find it funny how you guys say that Greinke being distracted by trade talks is an issue with is mental make-up after defending Uggla last year after signing a huge contract and struggling.. and not just struggling but being completely absent.
Greinke’s BABIP is .338. The Brewers are next to last in Defensive Efficiency (percentage of balls in play converted in to outs) and they are somewhere between below average and near the bottom in nearly every other telling defensive metric.
In July his BABIP is. 378. Of the 20 hits he’s given up in July, 3 have been homeruns, 4 have been doubles and 1 has been a triple. He’s struck out 15 and walked 6 in 14 innings.
The Braves, by the way, are just above average in Defensive Efficiency and lead the league in Defensive Runs Saved and UZR and UZR/150.
The Brewers defense could be a significant factor in Greinke’s struggles.
This would have been one of the posts of the day.
Unfortunately, you added the last part about people being amateur psychologists and not wanting to dig, etc. Doesn’t mean you’re totally wrong, but you’re painting with a broad brush, and people will predictably get upset.
“The Braves, by the way, are just above average in Defensive Efficiency and lead the league in Defensive Runs Saved and UZR and UZR/150.”
Even this is probably understated, because Pastornicky was the worst SS in the majors, and Freddie Freeman was out for a few games. I’d wager with Simmons the Braves are probably even more above average.
Unfortunately, you added the last part about people being amateur psychologists and not wanting to dig, etc
I actually agree with Shaun about the amatuer psychologists part. I think people who have no idea of Greinke’s situation are making rididculous assumptions. Again, Joey Votto left the sport for a month and he seems to be fine right now. We have no idea what is in Zack’s head and folks here want to label him as having a weak mental capacity.
I think, with Simmons, the Braves had one of the best defenses in the league. Some numbers would strongly suggest it was the best. I hope Janish can perform reasonably close.
Brian, I’m not directing any vitriol to those who actually care to use their heads and can see the connection between Greinke’s performance to Milwaukee’s defense. I’m directing it towards those who refuse to see it. I agree we would be better off if we can just point out the fact. But there are those who just want to completely ignore them because they don’t fit in to what they want to believe, for whatever reason.
Regarding the Hanson and Greinke comparison’s. I think Hanson is generally underrated because he hasn’t been the dominant pitcher everyone thought might be his upside (and still might be, eventually). And I think Greinke may be a little underrated because he’s only played on one really good team, hasn’t really played on a good defensive team yet and the psychological stuff gets overblown in some circles. So I think Hanson is a little closer to Greinke than a lot of folks realize, though I still think Greinke is the better pitcher.
Only thing relative to JJ and whether he gets tendered or non tendered is it’s July,folks. 12-14 more starts should tell us a lot about future with Braves, none of us should be so sure of an opinion today.
“Hanson’s biggest knocks… long ball and constantly having his team play from behind.”
Gotta add that he can’t put guys away/inefficient pitcher/can’t go deep in games.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Given better defense from his SS since Pastornicky got booted, Tommy won’t have such a difficult time getting deeper into the game. The same can be said for all our starters.
Brian from SC, that was the point. I wouldn’t say I was trying to “upset” anyone but I was trying to wake up those who assume Greinke has given up more hits and runs lately mostly because of his psychological state.
I think Janish can do the job just fine. All signs indicate he’s plenty good enough to play a solid defensive shortstop in the majors.
“none of us should be so sure of an opinion today.”
Oh, come on, this is blogging, if you aren’t sure of your opinion and stubborn, you’ll get eaten alive. No sitting on the fence with this crowd. Gotta love or hate a guy. It is practically a blog rule.
Greinke is the best option available and should be priority one in my opinion. But that’s not to say I’d sell the farm to do it… just pointing out what target should be first.
Don’t really see the reasoning behind calling one pitcher a #1 and another #5. They each are number 1 when they are pitching for you. The ultimate goal should be to have five pitchers you are comfortable with when each takes the mound. Besides Hudson, I don’t believe the Braves can truly be confortable on the other four days. The rotation can certainly use some help but unless it’s a deal that is to good to be true, I don’t believe the Braves are going to trade the farm for Greinke. Dempster, who appears to more dependable, should be the choice but again the price may be to high.
The Braves have a team OBP of .352 and OPS of .807 their last 20 games. In that span, they are 13-7, scoring 5.4 runs per game. Lookin’ like May again.
I agree that Tommy has a hard time putting hitters away. I don’t know the numbers but he seems to give up a ton of foul balls. I wonder if there is a stat for which pitchers have the most foul balls against them??
I also agree with Shaun’s assessment, and just like Brian, up to the time where he started calling people out. Shaun’s knowledge is really good and that stats he throws at us are quite telling. I don’t know where he gets his info but I am quite impressed with most of his posts and enjoy reading them. However, me or anyone else not having that knowledge or even knowing where to get those numbers, well that doesn’t make us idiots.
We all have our opinions on what we see, what we have seen, or what we may see. We all know what they say, opinions are like butt holes. We all have them and they all stink
“Our Bravos are 21-15 since Simmons took over. 49-39 overall. You do the math and figure out how important defense is behind starting pitching”
What is the Braves record without him during this winning streak? 4-0 without Simmons (playing a full game)? Suppose it helps when your team is scoring a ton of runs, eh?
Efrim, I’m getting the impression that he really doesn’t want to be in Milwaukee so I’m not too sure that he’d sign anything from them. I know if it’s me and we’re talking long term, I’d want to be somewhere I’d be happy but so much of the time money is the deciding factor.. not sure what Greinke is thinking however, just an opinion.
clearly ML scoring conspiracy – 40% of Greinke’s ERs should be non-earned due to errors and 40% should be attributed to lack of range in defense. anyone who is not an idiot should easily see this. he did give up other 10% of ERs.
Hey Jerry, love your stuff. What moves do the cardinals make at the deadline? Do they go after Hamels and possibly make some bullpen moves because as you can tell, they are costing them a lot of games. Thanks!
Jerry Crasnick (1:24 PM)
Tyler, I think Mozeliak will make a push for a starter, but I couldn’t tell you which one. Right now we’ve got Hamels, Greinke, Wandy, Dempster, Garza, Liriano, Saunders, Colon, Jason Vargas, Jeremy Guthrie and Edinson Volquez available. So it’s not as if he lacks for options.
“I’m getting the impression that he really doesn’t want to be in Milwaukee ”
Crap, all this time I thought he was in KC for some reason. Hmm, who would want to be a Brewer without Fielder on the team, and without a juicing Braun?
I think Grienke is something around a $20M/year pitcher. Hanson is probably a $10M-$15M/year pitcher. That’s not a huge difference in the grand scheme of things. (That’s based on what I think they are likely to do over the next 4-6 years and that’s just the general free agent price I’d be willing to pay those guy in the near future. Of course that doesn’t necessarily mean they are worth that much or that little to all teams. If I were running the Yankees or Red Sox or Dodgers or Cubs, I might pay more than that for both guys.)
John Smoltz summed it up perfectly. Given Braves starting pitching, win 5, lose 6, win 4, lose 5 and so on. Stuck in neutral, he pointed out . Agree with Smoltz . On a seven game win streak thanks to a great job, this time, by Sheets. Before Sheets the Braves won numbers 5 and 6 in the streak despite gosh awful pitching(and that’s a euphemism) by Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson. Looked more like batting practice. If not for uncharacteristic hitting in those games there would be no present win streak. Wren, better go out and buy a quality arm for the nights hitting is non existant. But I don’t think I’m the only one to agree, everyone else watching sees the present reality.
2,718 comments Add your comment
Efrim
July 16th, 2012
12:53 pm
I’d trade Teheran for James Shields. That’s about it.
Lew
July 16th, 2012
12:54 pm
Efrim – I agree, but there are plenty here who believe it. And Grienke’s and Hanson’s peripherals are eerily identical. Just can’t understand the love for one and the seeming hatred for the other.
brian
July 16th, 2012
12:55 pm
Teheran needs more movement on his fastball which tends to flatten out and more control over all his pitches. He also needs to work on hiding the ball better – sounds like it is way too easy to pick the ball up out of his windup. He has a very good change up and flashed a better breaking pitch in his one start this year than we have seen from him before. Hopefully they will find the right adjustment to the delivery and to his fastball grip
Felix
July 16th, 2012
12:56 pm
Looks like a deal for Greinke may be going down soon. My guess is that what Milwaukee is saying is just a cover story.
Efrim
July 16th, 2012
12:57 pm
As discussed earlier this morning, Hanson’s ceiling is no longer where it used to be. But he can still be a solid #2-#3 starter for a good rotation. He just isn’t going to be the ace we all thought we wer getting, mostly because of the shoulder injury that has dropped his velocity.
Brian from SC
July 16th, 2012
12:58 pm
Hanson and Greinke’s career numbers aren’t that different, but if you look at the last five years or so, Greinke’s peripherals are much better than Hanson’s. And Hanson has regressed the last year or two.
Will Hanson be a better pitcher than Greinke three years from now? He could be. But Greinke is a much better pitcher today. No doubt about that.
DAP
July 16th, 2012
12:59 pm
brian from sc DAP, I think you’ve got a good chance to be annoyed this off-season, then
they’d be idiots to consider it, brian. what a stupid thing to do.
Efrim
July 16th, 2012
12:59 pm
Teheran needs more fastball command, because the velocity is easy and while the ball is straight, it won’t matter if it’s placed well. The inconsistent breaking ball is the biggest problem, imo.
Brian from SC
July 16th, 2012
1:00 pm
What makes you say that, DAP. What is your reasoning behind the obviously strong opinion you have on it?
Coach (2012 Fredi's Beisbol Fandango)
July 16th, 2012
1:00 pm
But I still can’t get over Ben Sheets start yesterday.
The guy is the best story in baseball so far this season. Coming back from multiple elbow surgeries, two years away from the game……and shutting down the Mets for six innings?????
Wow is an understatement. Gotta love the karma he brings to our Bravos.
MFin04
July 16th, 2012
1:00 pm
I’ll take Hanson. Is cheaper, younger, and isn’t a head case.
Efrim
July 16th, 2012
1:01 pm
they’d be idiots to consider it, brian. what a stupid thing to do.
You really think it’d be stupid to non-tender Jurrjens when he is set to make 7 million in his last year? Teams aren’t going to empty the prospect truck for him, even if he has a strong 3 months. I think we may be able to get some prospects for him, but it won’t be very much and I can imagine it going right down to the deadline with Jair. Lots of starters available this winter in free agency and through trade(as usual).
tony austin
July 16th, 2012
1:01 pm
I don’t know where I’d consider Hanson, but I do know he throws way too many pitches and gives up way to many HRs to be a top of, or even close to the top of a rotation pitcher. His throwing style, which he said he adjusted but it looks exactly the same to me, makes him a pitch away from shoulder surgery.
I wouldn’t expect his trade value is too high either, so that’s not a possibility. This team just can’t expect too much out of him when he starts. Let’s just hope the offense and the bullpen is up to the challenge.
Brian from SC
July 16th, 2012
1:02 pm
tony austin, this year is actually the first year where he’s given up a significant number of homers. He’s already matched his career high of 17. Until this year, limiting home runs was actually one of his strengths.
Efrim
July 16th, 2012
1:03 pm
Way to go, brian…
brian (Greensboro, NC)
who do you see as the best fit for the Braves? Greinke, Liriano, Dempster, Garza, someone else?
Jerry Crasnick (1:01 PM)
Brian, Of that group, I think Dempster is the guy you’d probably feel most comfortable relying on in a pennant race. But I’m sure the Braves aren’t the only team that feels that way.
Steve from OH
July 16th, 2012
1:03 pm
But I still can’t get over Ben Sheets start yesterday.
He really did look great. And the performance I saw matched the outcome…always a good sign. I sure wouldn’t have been able to guess he hadn’t pitched in two years by the way he was hitting his spots.
brian
July 16th, 2012
1:04 pm
from Crasnick:
who do you see as the best fit for the Braves? Greinke, Liriano, Dempster, Garza, someone else?
Jerry Crasnick (1:01 PM)
Brian, Of that group, I think Dempster is the guy you’d probably feel most comfortable relying on in a pennant race. But I’m sure the Braves aren’t the only team that feels that way.
Lew
July 16th, 2012
1:04 pm
Yeah, what MFin04 said.
Grienke just ain’t all that and he’s going to cost a fortune in prospects and salary if signed long term. There is no certainty whatsoever (much less a guarantee) that he would be what we need right now – espcecially since we’re not a single piece away from putting the puzzle together. He is NOT worth it to the Braves.
brian
July 16th, 2012
1:04 pm
thanks Efrim – I have to agree with that one
Shaun
July 16th, 2012
1:05 pm
Greinke’s BABIP is .338. The Brewers are next to last in Defensive Efficiency (percentage of balls in play converted in to outs) and they are somewhere between below average and near the bottom in nearly every other telling defensive metric.
In July his BABIP is. 378. Of the 20 hits he’s given up in July, 3 have been homeruns, 4 have been doubles and 1 has been a triple. He’s struck out 15 and walked 6 in 14 innings.
The Braves, by the way, are just above average in Defensive Efficiency and lead the league in Defensive Runs Saved and UZR and UZR/150.
The Brewers defense could be a significant factor in Greinke’s struggles. But all that doesn’t jive with the beliefs of the amateur psychologists out there plus it goes beyond things like ERA and fielding percentage. You actually have to do some digging into what is actually going on and can’t just make assumptions based on the narrative to which you subscribe in order to arrive at the possibility that a lot of Greinke’s struggles are a result of the Brewers’ defense, which is clearly somewhere between noticeably below average and downright sorry.
George
July 16th, 2012
1:05 pm
Hi all
things seem to be going well now, but we are still 3 games behind the NATS that is a big mountain to climb. To do this two things need to happen. 1] FRANK WREN needs to get one more starting pitcher 2] FREDI needs to try not to be stupid.
MFin04
July 16th, 2012
1:05 pm
“But I still can’t get over Ben Sheets start yesterday.”
Especially after how bad Hudson and Hanson were. I mean the Mets offense was clicking in the first two games….so he did shut down a somewhat hot offensive team.
Brian from SC
July 16th, 2012
1:05 pm
Shaun, I was nodding my head at your post until the last paragraph. I don’t know why you can’t just give your opinion without denigrating those who may disagree with you.
tony austin
July 16th, 2012
1:06 pm
Fair enough Brian. Hopefully he can find what he had and stop with the long ball. It’s to a point now where I say to my wife, “I wonder what inning he’s going to give up the HR.”
Murph
July 16th, 2012
1:07 pm
I’m not to crazy about trading Mike Minor as I really believe we haven’t seen his best yet.
We’ve seen his best, which was pretty good… followed by his worst, his worster, and his worstest, then his mediocre, then his not too shabby…
39 starts into his major league career and I’m not all the impressed. Then I am. Then I’m not again for 3 weeks. Then I am again for one start…
I don’t think many people would miss Minor. A week after he was traded people in the dugout would be talking about him and a few people would have to be reminded of who he even was.
He won’t bring much in return, at least not a Greinke. Probably a Liriano if packaged with enough filler low-level guys
Capt.Mudd
July 16th, 2012
1:07 pm
Good time to gain a bit on D.C.,? After a resurgent week and such….probably so, confidently yes. But factor in the Nationals next opponent–the reeling Mets….and the dynamic gets clouded fast. Dillon Gee injured, Santanna giving up career record number of runs…..a closer also out….a history of second half burn outs; these Muts got a hell of an uphill climb starting tomorrow.
The Duda thing mentioned earlier is a ck., left hamstring issue which was not helped by the A/S break. Of course they are capable still, they’re, at least thus far, not the team they were in the first half of this season. We need a bit of help from other teams in our division…..and, our current ’streak’ notwithstanding, I see our pitching rotation moving in the right direction.
D.C. could still stand for ‘Deep Concern’…..but if we continue like we did this last series…..16 runs in the last 13 innings…..D.C. may well be ‘Definitely Catchable.’
MFin04
July 16th, 2012
1:07 pm
“especially since we’re not a single piece away from putting the puzzle together.”
I’m not sure what that means, this team is clearly capable of being the best in the NL. I mean with the Phillies almost completely done, I don’t see any reason why the Braves can’t be the best team in the NL this year.
George
July 16th, 2012
1:08 pm
Sure wish we could sign BOURN, but know he will want more than we will pay.
Drew
July 16th, 2012
1:09 pm
Hanson is probably going to have more arm problems. I would expect him to go down before the end of the season again this year.
Coach (2012 Fredi's Beisbol Fandango)
July 16th, 2012
1:09 pm
Velocity is overrated. I mean, has anybody else caught on to the fact that Tommy’s command has improved because he’s slowed it down?
It’s no coincidence that thirteen of his starts have resulted in three runs or less given up, nor that our Braves are 13-6 when Tommy toes the rubber. The kid is learning how to pitch.
p.s. Teheran throws too hard at this juncture. Which is why he’s bullpen material and hasn’t learned how to take 2-3 MPH off his fastball in exchange for better command.
Efrim
July 16th, 2012
1:09 pm
But all that doesn’t jive with the beliefs of the amateur psychologists out there plus it goes beyond things like ERA and fielding percentage.
Agreed about the “amateur psychologists”. So tired of hearing that about Greinke.
When the Brewers traded Alcides Escobar for Yuni Betancourt – near everyone said they had one of the worst defensive units out there. That’s still the case, folks. It’s as bad as there is out there.
Brian from SC
July 16th, 2012
1:09 pm
Here’s a typical Shaun post:
Opinion.
Good numbers to support the opinion.
Logic behind the connection.
Good information behind the numbers.
I’M SO MUCH SMARTER THAN YOU!!
End of post.
DAP
July 16th, 2012
1:09 pm
efrim non tendering Jurrjens would really annoy me. that should not be an option, whatsoever.
Why?
because he is too good to non tender because you dont want to pay him $7-$8mil. the idea he is untradeable is ludicrous, as is the idea that he isnt worth what he would make in arbitration. y’all are crazy if you think a veteran with a 3.50 ERA isnt worth the $8mil or it will take to keep him. what else are we going to get with $8mil? Joe Blanton? Please, y’all. Jurrjens isn’t worthless like some of you seem to think he is.
Efrim
July 16th, 2012
1:10 pm
I shoul of said, the Greinke deal that included Yuni Betancourt….
Frankie
July 16th, 2012
1:10 pm
Comment on Sheets. Go to Braves website and watch pitch to Wright with men in scoring position. Mac wanted outside and would not have had to move his glove a inch. Great pitch and just incredible command for a guy who hasn’t started in two years.
Brian from SC
July 16th, 2012
1:11 pm
DAP, if Jurrjens had a 3.50 ERA, he probably wouldn’t stand a chance of being non-tendered. Unfortunately, his ERA is around 5.
Brian from SC
July 16th, 2012
1:13 pm
With the $7-8 million the Braves would save by not having Jurrjens on the roster, the Braves would probably be much more likely to re-sign Bourn or bring in some other big bat.
MFin04
July 16th, 2012
1:13 pm
“DAP, if Jurrjens had a 3.50 ERA, he probably wouldn’t stand a chance of being non-tendered. Unfortunately, his ERA is around 5.”
That’s about as biased as it comes. 25 innings, 6 runs in 4 starts, 3-0 record. What is that a 2.15 ERA since coming back?
Coach (2012 Fredi's Beisbol Fandango)
July 16th, 2012
1:13 pm
Drew
July 16th, 2012
1:09 pm
Hanson is probably going to have more arm problems. I would expect him to go down before the end of the season again this year.
>>>>>>>
And I hope you get the chicken pox, measles, shingles, and lock jaw for saying such a thing
UNCBrave
July 16th, 2012
1:14 pm
Dempster would be best if just a rental…
Greinke would be OPTIMUM if we could sign LONG-Term? Why? The Braves DO NOT have an ACE or #1 on their staff…It’s Chipper’s last year, GO AFTER GREINKE!!
That said, I think the reason Pastornicky has not played is the Braves are trading him and the TWINS seem like that fit
Brian from SC
July 16th, 2012
1:14 pm
Hey, if he maintains that 2.15 ERA the rest of the year, he’s got a shot at being brought back. I hope he does.
Shaun
July 16th, 2012
1:14 pm
Brian from SC, I think anyone who thinks they know what is going on in the head of someone else deserves a certain amount of denigration. I can’t believe a professional sportswriter can get away with writing things like, “Whether he has been distracted by trade rumors or whatever, Greinke has not been sharp in July, allowing 20 hits and 14 runs in 14 innings,” without any regard to how bad the Brewers’ defense has been this season and how that relates to how often Greinke is giving up hits. You don’t need to do some sort of in-depth statistical study or an advanced degree in statistics to realize that it is very possible if not likely that Greinke has struggled because he plays in front of the Brewers’ defense.
MFin04
July 16th, 2012
1:14 pm
“With the $7-8 million the Braves would save by not having Jurrjens on the roster, the Braves would probably be much more likely to re-sign Bourn or bring in some other big bat.”
Doubt it. The Braves will have the money, they just aren’t going to overpay for Bourn after his career year. Ain’t going to happen.
Efrim
July 16th, 2012
1:15 pm
because he is too good to non tender because you dont want to pay him $7-$8mil. the idea he is untradeable is ludicrous, as is the idea that he isnt worth what he would make in arbitration. y’all are crazy if you think a veteran with a 3.50 ERA isnt worth the $8mil or it will take to keep him. what else are we going to get with $8mil? Joe Blanton? Please, y’all. Jurrjens isn’t worthless like some of you seem to think he is.
Were you saying this same thing on April 30th and when he was giving up 10 runs in a Triple-A game? Or are you absolutely convinced he’s back now after 4 starts?
Sigh….
Listen, maybe he can put together some good baseball for the rest of the season, but to sit here on July 16th and proclaim it’s ludicrous to non-tender Jair Jurrjens is about as equally ludicrous. And I guess you don’t care that he is a different pitcher now that he was in 2009 – but we’ve discussed this ad nauseum and you don’t prescribe to that theory. Oh well.
Brian from SC
July 16th, 2012
1:15 pm
Shaun, all I’ve ever tried to tell you is that you’d stand a better chance of being heard and understood if you let your opinions and the numbers speak for themselves, instead of telling people how wrong they are.
Brian from SC
July 16th, 2012
1:16 pm
That’s why I put an “or” in there. Bourn OR another big bat.
Braves Fan in Maine
July 16th, 2012
1:16 pm
UNCBraves…. how about this deal then…. Pastornicky,minor, and another player for liriano, willingham?
MFin04
July 16th, 2012
1:18 pm
“it is very possible if not likely that Greinke has struggled because he plays in front of the Brewers’ defense.”
Check his K/9, should’ve struck out more guys.
Can’t whine about defense. He has to keep ALL balls from entering the field of play. Especially for $20 million.
Brian from SC
July 16th, 2012
1:19 pm
FWIW, I think Shaun has a tremendously good point about the Brewers’ defense.
Shaun
July 16th, 2012
1:19 pm
Brian from SC, that’s the point. I’m not so much smarter than anyone else. That’s what so shocking and why I get outraged. Any idiot should be able to recognize that a lot of Greinke’s struggles lead back to the Brewers’ defense. I know people are smarter than completely ignoring the Brewers’ defense as a factor. It’s like they don’t really want to bother adding 1 + 1 to get 2. They would rather get 5, for whatever reason.
unbelievable
July 16th, 2012
1:19 pm
I’d trade Teheran for James Shields. That’s about it.
Brett Lawrie, Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo….There’s a long list Id trade Teheran for.
MFin04
July 16th, 2012
1:20 pm
Of course it could be that the Brewer’s defense is bad, or it could be that he is too mental to get out of jams?
Arkansas Transplant
July 16th, 2012
1:21 pm
I find it funny how you guys say that Greinke being distracted by trade talks is an issue with is mental make-up after defending Uggla last year after signing a huge contract and struggling.. and not just struggling but being completely absent.
Brian from SC
July 16th, 2012
1:21 pm
Greinke’s BABIP is .338. The Brewers are next to last in Defensive Efficiency (percentage of balls in play converted in to outs) and they are somewhere between below average and near the bottom in nearly every other telling defensive metric.
In July his BABIP is. 378. Of the 20 hits he’s given up in July, 3 have been homeruns, 4 have been doubles and 1 has been a triple. He’s struck out 15 and walked 6 in 14 innings.
The Braves, by the way, are just above average in Defensive Efficiency and lead the league in Defensive Runs Saved and UZR and UZR/150.
The Brewers defense could be a significant factor in Greinke’s struggles.
This would have been one of the posts of the day.
Unfortunately, you added the last part about people being amateur psychologists and not wanting to dig, etc. Doesn’t mean you’re totally wrong, but you’re painting with a broad brush, and people will predictably get upset.
Arkansas Transplant
July 16th, 2012
1:22 pm
Hanson’s biggest knocks… long ball and constantly having his team play from behind.
Juan
July 16th, 2012
1:23 pm
Hey guys anybody see ANDERS from NY?
ncscoots
July 16th, 2012
1:23 pm
can’t just make assumptions based on the narrative to which you subscribe
Hot dang, all right! It’s “narrative” day!
MFin04
July 16th, 2012
1:24 pm
“The Braves, by the way, are just above average in Defensive Efficiency and lead the league in Defensive Runs Saved and UZR and UZR/150.”
Even this is probably understated, because Pastornicky was the worst SS in the majors, and Freddie Freeman was out for a few games. I’d wager with Simmons the Braves are probably even more above average.
MFin04
July 16th, 2012
1:25 pm
“Hanson’s biggest knocks… long ball and constantly having his team play from behind.”
Gotta add that he can’t put guys away/inefficient pitcher/can’t go deep in games.
ncscoots
July 16th, 2012
1:25 pm
Any idiot should be able to recognize that a lot of Greinke’s struggles lead back to the Brewers’ defense
No wonder, then, that you personally were able to pick it out so clearly.
Efrim
July 16th, 2012
1:28 pm
Unfortunately, you added the last part about people being amateur psychologists and not wanting to dig, etc
I actually agree with Shaun about the amatuer psychologists part. I think people who have no idea of Greinke’s situation are making rididculous assumptions. Again, Joey Votto left the sport for a month and he seems to be fine right now. We have no idea what is in Zack’s head and folks here want to label him as having a weak mental capacity.
Brian from SC
July 16th, 2012
1:28 pm
I think, with Simmons, the Braves had one of the best defenses in the league. Some numbers would strongly suggest it was the best. I hope Janish can perform reasonably close.
Coach (2012 Fredi's Beisbol Fandango)
July 16th, 2012
1:30 pm
Hanson’s biggest knocks… long ball and constantly having his team play from behind.
Yea well Tommy is on his way to a career high in wins (10-5 record, 11 wins is his high).
MFin04
July 16th, 2012
1:30 pm
“I hope Janish can perform reasonably close.”
Made a play Sunday that Pastornicky/Wilson wouldn’t have made so…so far so good.
Efrim
July 16th, 2012
1:31 pm
David (UCSB)
Jean Segura, Garrett Richards, and Taylor Lindsay enough to land Greinke?
Jerry Crasnick (1:06 PM)
David, For two months of Zack Greinke? I think that’s plenty.
Plenty, indeed.
ncscoots
July 16th, 2012
1:31 pm
and folks here want to label him as having a weak mental capacity.
I think they’re actually calling him a “doodie-head”.
Shaun
July 16th, 2012
1:31 pm
Brian, I’m not directing any vitriol to those who actually care to use their heads and can see the connection between Greinke’s performance to Milwaukee’s defense. I’m directing it towards those who refuse to see it. I agree we would be better off if we can just point out the fact. But there are those who just want to completely ignore them because they don’t fit in to what they want to believe, for whatever reason.
Regarding the Hanson and Greinke comparison’s. I think Hanson is generally underrated because he hasn’t been the dominant pitcher everyone thought might be his upside (and still might be, eventually). And I think Greinke may be a little underrated because he’s only played on one really good team, hasn’t really played on a good defensive team yet and the psychological stuff gets overblown in some circles. So I think Hanson is a little closer to Greinke than a lot of folks realize, though I still think Greinke is the better pitcher.
CB
July 16th, 2012
1:34 pm
Only thing relative to JJ and whether he gets tendered or non tendered is it’s July,folks. 12-14 more starts should tell us a lot about future with Braves, none of us should be so sure of an opinion today.
Coach (2012 Fredi's Beisbol Fandango)
July 16th, 2012
1:34 pm
“Hanson’s biggest knocks… long ball and constantly having his team play from behind.”
Gotta add that he can’t put guys away/inefficient pitcher/can’t go deep in games.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Given better defense from his SS since Pastornicky got booted, Tommy won’t have such a difficult time getting deeper into the game. The same can be said for all our starters.
Efrim
July 16th, 2012
1:34 pm
LHP Luis Merejo finally slows down a bit in the GCL: 4.2 IP, 6 hits, 5 ER, 2 BB’s and 6 K’s.
Of course, C Tyler Tewell isn’t the best receiver or overall defensive catcher, so that could of been a factor.
ncscoots
July 16th, 2012
1:35 pm
But there are those who just want to completely ignore them because they don’t fit in to what they want to believe, for whatever reason.
Bubba, that’s you all over, not that you realize it.
Besides, if you make your case properly, you’ll convince the unwashed masses. Why not just leave it at that and let the message do its work?
MFin04
July 16th, 2012
1:35 pm
“So I think Hanson is a little closer to Greinke than a lot of folks realize, though I still think Greinke is the better pitcher.”
Ok, how much better, and worth how much more in terms of money at their current ages?
Braves Fan in Maine
July 16th, 2012
1:36 pm
Someone on chat with Jerry crasnick said rumor has it that Brewers are going to offer Grienke 5 years 100 million….
Have a nice day… too much for him
Shaun
July 16th, 2012
1:36 pm
Brian from SC, that was the point. I wouldn’t say I was trying to “upset” anyone but I was trying to wake up those who assume Greinke has given up more hits and runs lately mostly because of his psychological state.
I think Janish can do the job just fine. All signs indicate he’s plenty good enough to play a solid defensive shortstop in the majors.
Efrim
July 16th, 2012
1:36 pm
12-14 more starts should tell us a lot about future with Braves, none of us should be so sure of an opinion today.
Yes, it’ll be telling. I hope he pitches reasonably well and we get to trade him for a prospect package – or another usable piece in 2013.
MFin04
July 16th, 2012
1:37 pm
“none of us should be so sure of an opinion today.”
Oh, come on, this is blogging, if you aren’t sure of your opinion and stubborn, you’ll get eaten alive. No sitting on the fence with this crowd. Gotta love or hate a guy. It is practically a blog rule.
Efrim
July 16th, 2012
1:38 pm
Someone on chat with Jerry crasnick said rumor has it that Brewers are going to offer Grienke 5 years 100 million….
That may be enough for him. In the middle of Weaver’s team friendly deal and Cain’s contract. He might sign that.
Arkansas Transplant
July 16th, 2012
1:38 pm
Greinke is the best option available and should be priority one in my opinion. But that’s not to say I’d sell the farm to do it… just pointing out what target should be first.
ncscoots
July 16th, 2012
1:39 pm
trying to wake up those who assume Greinke has given up more hits and runs lately mostly because of his psychological state.
You deride “mostly” as hyperbole and steadfastly refuse to credit “any” as possibility.
Coach (2012 Fredi's Beisbol Fandango)
July 16th, 2012
1:39 pm
Our Bravos are 21-15 since Simmons took over. 49-39 overall. You do the math and figure out how important defense is behind starting pitching.
JoeFan
July 16th, 2012
1:39 pm
Don’t really see the reasoning behind calling one pitcher a #1 and another #5. They each are number 1 when they are pitching for you. The ultimate goal should be to have five pitchers you are comfortable with when each takes the mound. Besides Hudson, I don’t believe the Braves can truly be confortable on the other four days. The rotation can certainly use some help but unless it’s a deal that is to good to be true, I don’t believe the Braves are going to trade the farm for Greinke. Dempster, who appears to more dependable, should be the choice but again the price may be to high.
Efrim
July 16th, 2012
1:40 pm
but I was trying to wake up those who assume Greinke has given up more hits and runs lately mostly because of his psychological state.
Fair. What’s unfair is to get upset with folks who didn’t see the Brewers team defensive metrics before stating the facts that his July has stunk.
Braves Fan in Maine
July 16th, 2012
1:40 pm
Efrim….. thats too much IMO….. I know he is good in all but I dont really care for him that much
Brian from SC
July 16th, 2012
1:41 pm
The Braves have a team OBP of .352 and OPS of .807 their last 20 games. In that span, they are 13-7, scoring 5.4 runs per game. Lookin’ like May again.
CB
July 16th, 2012
1:41 pm
No way on God’s green earth will Braves give Greinke 5ys-100mil much less trade prospects and sign him.
tony austin
July 16th, 2012
1:42 pm
I agree that Tommy has a hard time putting hitters away. I don’t know the numbers but he seems to give up a ton of foul balls. I wonder if there is a stat for which pitchers have the most foul balls against them??
I also agree with Shaun’s assessment, and just like Brian, up to the time where he started calling people out. Shaun’s knowledge is really good and that stats he throws at us are quite telling. I don’t know where he gets his info but I am quite impressed with most of his posts and enjoy reading them. However, me or anyone else not having that knowledge or even knowing where to get those numbers, well that doesn’t make us idiots.
We all have our opinions on what we see, what we have seen, or what we may see. We all know what they say, opinions are like butt holes. We all have them and they all stink
MFin04
July 16th, 2012
1:42 pm
“Our Bravos are 21-15 since Simmons took over. 49-39 overall. You do the math and figure out how important defense is behind starting pitching”
What is the Braves record without him during this winning streak? 4-0 without Simmons (playing a full game)? Suppose it helps when your team is scoring a ton of runs, eh?
Brian from SC
July 16th, 2012
1:43 pm
Also 18 steals in the last 20 games, which is more than they had in the previous 41 (16 SB).
Arkansas Transplant
July 16th, 2012
1:44 pm
He might sign that.
Efrim, I’m getting the impression that he really doesn’t want to be in Milwaukee so I’m not too sure that he’d sign anything from them. I know if it’s me and we’re talking long term, I’d want to be somewhere I’d be happy but so much of the time money is the deciding factor.. not sure what Greinke is thinking however, just an opinion.
cricket
July 16th, 2012
1:45 pm
clearly ML scoring conspiracy – 40% of Greinke’s ERs should be non-earned due to errors and 40% should be attributed to lack of range in defense. anyone who is not an idiot should easily see this. he did give up other 10% of ERs.
Efrim
July 16th, 2012
1:45 pm
Tyler (Kingston, WA)
Hey Jerry, love your stuff. What moves do the cardinals make at the deadline? Do they go after Hamels and possibly make some bullpen moves because as you can tell, they are costing them a lot of games. Thanks!
Jerry Crasnick (1:24 PM)
Tyler, I think Mozeliak will make a push for a starter, but I couldn’t tell you which one. Right now we’ve got Hamels, Greinke, Wandy, Dempster, Garza, Liriano, Saunders, Colon, Jason Vargas, Jeremy Guthrie and Edinson Volquez available. So it’s not as if he lacks for options.
Lots of pitchers available….
ncscoots
July 16th, 2012
1:45 pm
What is the Braves record without him during this winning streak? 4-0 without Simmons (playing a full game)?
There you go. Trade Simmons. His absence is clearly the linchpin of a World Series run, LOL.
MFin04
July 16th, 2012
1:45 pm
“I’m getting the impression that he really doesn’t want to be in Milwaukee ”
Crap, all this time I thought he was in KC for some reason. Hmm, who would want to be a Brewer without Fielder on the team, and without a juicing Braun?
Brian from SC
July 16th, 2012
1:46 pm
tony austin, 28% of the strikes Hanson throws are fouled off pitches. That’s the highest on the Braves’ staff, and tied for 13th in the NL.
cricket
July 16th, 2012
1:47 pm
btw, for anyone fails to detect it, math in my last comment was off for sarcasm purposes only
Shaun
July 16th, 2012
1:47 pm
I think Grienke is something around a $20M/year pitcher. Hanson is probably a $10M-$15M/year pitcher. That’s not a huge difference in the grand scheme of things. (That’s based on what I think they are likely to do over the next 4-6 years and that’s just the general free agent price I’d be willing to pay those guy in the near future. Of course that doesn’t necessarily mean they are worth that much or that little to all teams. If I were running the Yankees or Red Sox or Dodgers or Cubs, I might pay more than that for both guys.)
ncscoots
July 16th, 2012
1:47 pm
Hey Jerry, love your stuff. What moves do the cardinals make at the deadline?
Just once, I’d love to see one these guys go, “Hey, Jerry, you suck. What moves do the cardinals make at the deadline?”
CB
July 16th, 2012
1:47 pm
Hey, they have made a base stealer out of Martin Prado! Someone should be receiving some credit.
bobbybragan
July 16th, 2012
1:48 pm
John Smoltz summed it up perfectly. Given Braves starting pitching, win 5, lose 6, win 4, lose 5 and so on. Stuck in neutral, he pointed out . Agree with Smoltz . On a seven game win streak thanks to a great job, this time, by Sheets. Before Sheets the Braves won numbers 5 and 6 in the streak despite gosh awful pitching(and that’s a euphemism) by Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson. Looked more like batting practice. If not for uncharacteristic hitting in those games there would be no present win streak. Wren, better go out and buy a quality arm for the nights hitting is non existant. But I don’t think I’m the only one to agree, everyone else watching sees the present reality.
ncscoots
July 16th, 2012
1:49 pm
Crap, all this time I thought he was in KC for some reason.
It’s OK. He didn’t really want to be in KC, either.