9:32 pm July 9, 2012, by David O'Brien
July 11th, 20124:06 pm
“Heyward’s parents are both pretty well off financially. There’s the difference. Baseball costs money to play, you need field space, equipment, etc. If anything, based on what I see with travel ball and showcases costing a small fortune, it’s going to be a long road to get that demographic back into the baseball picture.”
If this was 1980.
It’s not accurate to say that blacks = urban anymore.
DeKalb, Henry (I think where Heyward is from), Douglas, etc all these suburban counties have cheap enough field space. The word will get out. Baseball is not a bad route to go.
I think that’s enduring legacy of Obama, who I’m guessing is less popular than Melk Dud in this blog. You really could be President, or a right fielder in Atlanta.
It is going to be a long road, but I think we’re on it.
so Pastor will play for a month when Simmons is out and THEN Wren will add a SS? Fire Fredi.
I’d bet he’d get more on the open market if he has another season like this one. So he might tend to disagree that it’s a good extension.
I dunno, TenneseePaul. 27 million is a lot of money to pass up. I wouldn’t give him a four year extension. I really wouldn’t. And 9 million a year is what I’m topping out at for an AAV.
July 11th, 20124:07 pm
2 Uptons for the price of one? might be ok. two for the price of two, I’ll pass.
Really have nothing strong against Justin. he has been inconsistent from year to year but never bad and he is still young. BJ is another matter, though I admit he has tools and there are worse out there.I really think the blog would pound on him after a while though
Most everyone is worried about “The Rev.” Just let him play until Simmons gets back.
July 11th, 20124:08 pm
Always like to see these lists come out at mid-season. Keith Law’s Top 50 mid-season prospects comes out tomorrow. Here is the Talking Chop one:
CF= Durango/Constanza (Still have Felix Pie too?)
LF= Who knows
July 11th, 20124:09 pm
I want one guy that get on base with some speed, 2 guys that can hit .300 or better and not strikeout too much, 4 guys that can jack 25+ homers and drive in some runs and 1 guy that can hold his own with the bat and play some stellar defense. Don’t give a darn who plays where.
i can live with 8 guys that can jack 25+ homers and great pitching staff, scr*w the defense
July 11th, 20124:11 pm
All, have a good one! Talk later tonight, and Peace my friends…… Good talking as always….”Go!!!!!Braves!!!!!”
Don’t give a darn who plays where.
I’m all into positional scarcity.
Of course not. But why do you think certain types of hitters end up playing certain positions, to a great extent? Because the rest of their skillset, their body type, their athleticism, and a host of other factors also come into play. It’s not like discrimination or something, fercrissake.
July 11th, 20124:13 pm
hey maybe we can trade Hanson for José Capellán. guys has some serious heat which is what is really important. who wants some dork who can barely hit 91 anyway?
July 11th, 20124:14 pm
MY man, LOL.
I hate bleacher report. But this guy did a decent job of the current Braves Top 10: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1236011-atlanta-braves-top-10-prospects-at-midseason#/articles/1236011-atlanta-braves-top-10-prospects-at-midseason
July 11th, 20124:15 pm
The Braves may be in a position to consider an Uggla trade, if they have an opportunity to make a big splash with a big-time leftfielder or centerfielder or starting pitcher…
Doubtful. You spent that entire paragraph eluding to potential scenarios that had Wren essentially mismanaging the budget in the next three years.
I was throwing it out there because I think he’s the one player that ties the Braves hands to some degree or has the potential to on some level.
Uggla is the only player with a contract over the next three years. So yes, I could see how the only guy with a contract is the “one player.”
The Braves had Uggla last year making over $9M. The team also had Hudson making $9M, Chipper making $13M, Lowe making $15M… In the next three years, Uggla will be making $13M and no other player is guaranteed money, nor does any other player even have an option for more money. The brightest youngsters won’t even be Free Agents during that 3 year period. The only way possible for Uggla to become a problem is if Wren makes bad moves. Wren has all the flexibility in the world right now. There is no event short of epic fail that requires or compels Wren to move Uggla.
Melk Dud was the NL ASG MVP.
Let that sink in for a minute.
hey maybe we can trade Hanson for José Capellán.
I was so mad when they made that trade. Good thing Cappellan never turned into a thing. Dan Kolb was awful.
July 11th, 20124:16 pm
This work thing is really getting in the way of my blog reading.
that is a weak top 10 IMHO
July 11th, 20124:17 pm
Salcedo wouldn’t be in my Top 10….
nolie, so the Braves’ attendance slipped after the 2000 season, when they were swept in the first round. Basically when fans started to perceive them as no longer the beasts of the NL is when attendance started to slip. From 1992-2000, they ranked 4th or higher in the NL every season. After 2000 they’ve never ranked higher than 6th in the NL in attendance.
That’s clearly the line of demarcation, seems to me. And that’s about the time when the perception, fairly or unfairly, was teams like the Cardinals and Diamondbacks had caught up. The D-backs traded for Schilling in 2000 and already had Randy Johnson. The Cardinals had a still-productive Mark McGwire, they had acquired Jim Edmonds and Renteria in 1999-2000, JD Drew, Matt Morris and Rick Ankiel looked like up-and-coming studs. It was around 2000 that the Braves looked like they were fading a bit, again, whether that was a fair perception or not. Or, if not fading, that some franchises had started to catch up with their talent.
“Melk Dud was the NL ASG MVP.
Let that sink in for a minute.”
Don’t do it. It will make you soo pissed off at the world, it isn’t worth trying.
July 11th, 20124:18 pm
Who else would you have in it? Or do you mean the talent? If it’s the talent, then yes, as we’ve discussed – weakest crop of prospects in years. Maybe a decade.
I dunno, TenneseePaul. 27 million is a lot of money to pass up.
Please, I made that much during the time it took me to type this post.
Seriously though, it’s on Prado, if he thinks he can get more on the market, which I wouldn’t be surprised if he did think that and/or get that, he has to decide if he’s passing up $27M or actually turning down more than $27M…
July 11th, 20124:19 pm
I can’t believe Nick Ahmed, Ed Salcedo and Christian Bethancourt are our best position prospects.
What the hell is going on?
July 11th, 20124:20 pm
So if winning is not the primary factor in a team’s attendance is the perception that they can win.
Coach (2012 Fredi's Beisbol Fandango)
Dear Buster Olney……
You obviously don’t follow Braves baseball much at all. Otherwise you would know that the Braves offense is the least of their problems, nor do they have any desire to trade Martin Prado as he is the heir apparent at 3rd base.
Pitching is our numero uno problem right now., along with an anemic bench and maybe the need for another arm in the bullpen. But thanks for trying Buster.
Add Gattis to that list, and LOOK OUT!
Does everyone here even knwo that Uggla is the only one on the books in 2014? I mean, that’s some damn good work by Frank……
still think he’s on the hot seat if they miss out of the next 2 playoffs though…
July 11th, 20124:21 pm
Shaun most teams do not win anywhere near that amount of games in that time span. spin it whatever way you think backs your theory but add it to the fact that when attendance went back up they were NOT winning anything like that , and it demonstrates that once again you are unable to see past your theories even when they do not conform to reality
July 11th, 20124:22 pm
Make a splash for a Top Line Lfer? You mean a LFer that would hit 30 HR like Uggla?
During an appearance on 98.5 The Sports Hub on Tuesday, Peter Gammons referenced Jon Lester being “unhappy” in Boston.
This is someone who I would love to get to Atlanta…….not Gammons….
July 11th, 20124:23 pm
exactly coach, Buster needs to start paying a lot more attention to baseball…..
July 11th, 20124:24 pm
efrim I can’t believe Nick Ahmed, Ed Salcedo and Christian Bethancourt are our best position prospects.
if only we hadnt called up ROY contenders 3 years in a row. they could still have the prospect label and the top ten would be stacked!
“Pitching is our numero uno problem right now., ”
I still disagree with this. I think hitting is also a top priority. Wouldn’t mind another bat. Too many unknowns right now…Uggla/McCann/Chipper, can they stay healthy and hit in the 2nd half?
Efrim, I just meant talent, can’t think of anyone any better to put in there.
July 11th, 20124:25 pm
It was a bizarre comment from Olney. I know they stuck Prado out there last winter, but to what degree is debatable and we don’t have a 3rd baseman in our system to replace Jones. Not even close.
I don’t know man. I think it takes a generation of parents to get through and raise their kids up on a sport. All the parents right now grew up on Michael Jordan and the NFL.
The primary problem I see is you can’t pick up a bat at 13 years old and have any chance of making it to the pros. It happens all the time in the NFL and NBA as soon as this kid grows 6 inches or that kid puts on 40 lbs of muscle. Baseball takes some level of commitment at an earlier age to develop all the skills needed.
And travel ball makes it worse. It has it’s place, but I see it discouraging some of the kids I coach that don’t play travel ball and try to compete in rec leagues with kids that are so much better simply because they practice or play almost every day of the year. Some of these kids I see getting discouraged have the natural abilities and will probably surpass all the travel ball kids by the time their 14, but it’s hard to convince a kid to stick with a sport when it takes a ridiculous time commitment to keep up with the other kids and have some success at the sport. I’m talking about 8 years old here…yep…8.
1992-2000, they ranked 4th or higher in the NL every season. After 2000 they’ve never ranked higher than 6th in the NL in attendance
From 1997 through 2004 the Braves attendance dropped year over year. At the end of that nearly a decade stretch the Braves had seen a drop of 33% in attendance. In that time the Braves went to the WS, played in three LCS, went to the post season every year and won 100+ games 5 times. Every year, year over year, during that time of excellence attendance dropped. The year over year decline in attendance (despite persistent winning, post season appearances and deep runs into the post season) was an average 5%. Year over year, 5% less people. Steady decline for nearly a decade despite winning more games than any other team in the sport during that period.
July 11th, 20124:26 pm
“Make a splash for a Top Line Lfer? You mean a LFer that would hit 30 HR like Uggla?”
Maybe one that could hit over .221?
Weird that people praise the 30HR thing so hard they can just gloss over the .221 or just plain watching him every night.
He’s batting 7th !!!
I wouldn’t be against an Upton Brothers family reunion in the OF, their playing together would probably bring out the best in them both. However, that’s an offseason plan and I can’t see the Braves moving their future 3rd baseman for Upton (as good as he is)
I reckon Bossman Jr is gonna be looking at a 5 year $60 mill type deal…. that’s not so bad , except that his CF defense is pretty much avg….. his power over Bourn gives me a bit more longterm confidence on providing value equal to the payday tho…….
That being said, if we ended up with Justin Upton, I’d be very very surprised. I don’t see a match with the D-backs as we have the same farm system.
Maybe this is just posturing by the Arizona GM to try and get it through to Upton that he will be moved if he doesn’t play better
Hey, our Top 10 under 25 years old is pretty damn good. Kevin Goldstein from Baseball Propectus does that every year and I think it’s a better list than any of the Top Prospects ones. That’s the REAL value of an org. and we have a ton of young talent under the age of 25.
July 11th, 20124:27 pm
nolie, when did Braves’ attendance go back up? It’s been between 8th and 10th in the NL since 2004 and hasn’t been above 6th since 2000.
I’m looking a rankings rather than comparing their attendance one year against previous or future attendance. In my view, it’s better to look at rankings because there could be something going on around baseball or around the NL that could have pushed attendance down or up for everyone. So looking at where they rank in attendance seems to be the way to go.
some good posts Lemke
efrim That’s the REAL value of an org. and we have a ton of young talent under the age of 25.
July 11th, 20124:28 pm
sure Shaun look at whichever cherry picked stats back you up and ignore all others. S.O.P.
Part of the problem is Simmons, Heyward, and Freeman all playing with the big guys, but it is a little concerning that there aren’t a few more guys making some noise.
July 11th, 20124:29 pm
Yup, it’s sad. But unlike last year, at least we have some athletes and pitchers at the GCL and Danville levels. I like the look of the lower minors now than I did the last two years….
July 11th, 20124:31 pm
Remember that other Braves person from the AJC? I think her nickname was something like the “Chop Chick”? What happened to her?
but it is a little concerning that there aren’t a few more guys making some noise.
That’s my gripe. Lipka has been a disappointment, as has Salcedo. Simmons was a great get in 2010, but the 2009-2011 drafts mostly stunk in terms of the position prospects selected.
Mycal Jones being the #1 epic failure in the last 4 years worth of drafts.
July 11th, 20124:32 pm
The farm looks rough because the following players:
are on the big squad
and the following players :
have played enough on the Braves to not really be prospects anymore really…(well Teheran still is I guess,as he’s barely 21)
we have 8 guys 3 years or less from the minor leagues contributing on our MLB team, that’s a helluva job by Wren and his scouting Dept, you gotta tip yer cap to him!
sure when you draft late almost every season, you are bound to have trouble keeping up(especially when you forget how to draft early ).add that to having had a great run of prospects which were recently cleared to the bigs, and what can you expect? Still kinda disconcertin’ though IMO. and yes I agree that we have a great 25 & Under crowd and that is very important
July 11th, 20124:34 pm
“Chop Chick”? What happened to her?
they fired her as a warning to Fredi
well, we still have Bill Shanks………..
July 11th, 20124:35 pm
I reckon Bossman Jr is gonna be looking at a 5 year $60 mill type deal….
Really? Dude needs to show me something. I think positional scarcity is the best thing he has going for him. That is a lot of money to pay for tools.
And nolie is right. The blog would hate him.
I can walk to the stadium, but, don’t discount traffic as a reason why weeknight Braves have become a tepid draw.
If I lived in Cobb or Acworth or whatever, that’s a painful hike.
Why is there no people mover or light rail between Ga State Marta and the Ted ?
Braves should build one. It would pay for itself in pretty short order.
I don’t find Lipka a disappointment! He’s barely 20 and in high A ball and his OBP, SLG% and wOBA have improved every year! Plus he’s learning a new position.
I reckon by age 24 he should be a fine big league player, if his rate of improvement continues
“The blog would hate him….”
Because he sucks!
July 11th, 20124:36 pm
I think the blog does a fine job of pre-hating BJ. lol
He’s always good for a laugh.
TennesseePaul, right. The Braves attendance dropped when the perception that they were no longer head-and-shoulders above every other team in the NL started to die away. Winning and the perception of their chances of winning are what influenced attendance more than anything. And many fans don’t recognize that winning regular season games outweighs winning in one month or how hard it is for a franchise to win even one World Series. Many fans view things in the same light as Robert, that the best team wins the league pennant and World Series every year.
July 11th, 20124:37 pm
All the parents right now grew up on Michael Jordan and the NFL.
This parent grew up on Chipper Jones and Braves baseball and my kids will grow up on Jason Heyward or Freeman or Simmons and Braves Baseball!!
July 11th, 20124:38 pm
My point exactly.
BJ is having a lousy year dwn in Tampa, might really hurt his contract pricetag.
a guy who had been worth 4 WAR 2 years in a row is gonna be lucky to post a 2 this year…. OPS is under .700
wow, bad timing Bossman
July 11th, 20124:39 pm
shoulda traded up and drafted Harper
Right, a well done job by them from 2005-2008 with some solid picks in the 2010 draft.
However up until this last year, the drafts haven’t been that great – not sure why Heyward, Freeman and the others matter with regard to three straight below average drafts(09-11)…that’s whose in the system now.
BJ Upton 2012 .248 .303 .376 .679
I can’t believe his name keeps coming up. His numbers are terrible. He is like a slower, powerlesser Michael Bourn with an attitude problem.
July 11th, 20124:40 pm
potential 5/60 is a big part of my dislike for him as an option.
OTOH, did anybody remember that he has 500 PA at third,second and short?
July 11th, 20124:41 pm
“shoulda traded up and drafted Harper”
or maybe change our strategy a little bit.
Pitchers are sketchier than hitters.
Draft hitters. Build the rotation largely through FA.
count Braves have become a tepid draw.
i think thats a little strong for a team consistently in the top half in attendance. in other words, there are about 15 MLB teams who would love to have the draw the braves do. attendance woes are overblown by alot of people.
July 11th, 20124:42 pm
Shaun Kept telling us last year that Upton’s numbers were irrelevant because he was young and had lots of potential.
July 11th, 20124:43 pm
“or maybe change our strategy a little bit.”
Or stop drafting crappy pitchers….who choke when they get to the majors.
count weeknight Braves have become a tepid draw.
i apologize for leaving off that part of the quote. weekday games can be kinda weak, but its not different from most MLB teams. i still say attendance issues are overblown, because when the final tally comes in, we do ok.
July 11th, 20124:44 pm
Or stop drafting crappy pitchers….who choke when they get to the majors.
I can only think of Minor.
oh wait…Devine too
NickB, his OPS+ is 92. His career OPS+ is 104. His season may hurt his price tag a little but I don’t think it will drastically take a hit.
Lew – Yeh well some of us said that Carlos Beltran was going to be hurt the whole year…not an All-Star leading the NL in RBIs. So I guess we all struggle at time with predictions.
Not sure if this has been mentioned, but if the Rays offer Upton 12.5 million – which means loss of a 1st round draft pick for Atlanta – no way in hell I’m signing him. And it’s doubtful even the Rays who love draft picks(everyone should) would make the qualifying offer, but just sayin….
July 11th, 20124:45 pm
I go to weeknight games. The weekend draw brings ‘em in from the burbs, AL, TN and SC.
It’s a nice stadium. There are some cheap tickets. Traffic probably costs the Braves several thousand seats a game per weeknight.
BJ is having a bad year, but he is an above average offensive CFer most seasons. Then there is still the lure of the underlying talent. Most teams could do a lot worse. This includes the Braves if they aren’t able to retain Bourn.
not sure why Heyward, Freeman and the others matter with regard to three straight below average drafts(09-11)…that’s whose in the system now.
When one doesn’t wish to acknowledge a point, one merely changes the parameters mid conversation. Spent the last few hours watching that tactic in full motion. You are correct Ef, the youth on the MLB roster is awesome, but the discussion is about the minor leagues as a result of the last few years of terrible drafts. The promotion of youthful talent to the major league roster does not justify poor drafting.
July 11th, 20124:46 pm
I think the blog does a fine job of pre-hating BJ
I like this. I think pre-hating could become a blog staple. Excellent concept.
I want a blog Top Ten Pre-Hated Players. Get on it, somebody.
any numbers that do not match the conclusions drawn for him by someone on some website are always irrelevant
“Then there is still the lure of the underlying talent”
No thanks with that risk. I’d rather have a guy with a good attitude who works hard…named Michael Bourn.
July 11th, 20124:47 pm
Good conversation today, folks.
July 11th, 2012
You don’t 4.6 runs per game is good enough (IT MOST CERTAINLY IS) while our starters ERA of 4.11 must be OK by you? While our team ERA is 3.91 and ranked 6th, only five teams get into the playoffs in each league.
want a blog Top Ten Pre-Hated Players. Get on it, somebody….
July 11th, 20124:48 pm
well, if you look at Upton’s body of work and not JUST 2012 he is a better player than Bourn(and Bourn is 30 and Upton 28)
Upton career Slashline and other stuff:
.256/.339/.413 .752 OPS 216 SB’s 97 HR’s 20.6 WAR in 891 games
.277/.340/.370 .710 OPS .327 wOBA 259 SB’s, 20 HR’s 19.6 WAR in 801 games
Bourn is having a better season, but I think BJ Upton is more likely to end up providing more value relative to the amount of his contract.
I don’t remember claiming that BJ Upton’s numbers were irrelevant. I remember arguing something like that his performance is fine and there’s a chance they get a little better. His raw numbers actually should get better if he signs with a team that plays in a better park for hitters. But his performance may not get drastically better, which is fine, because he’s been a solid player.
i buy MLB EI – i’ve done my part
July 11th, 20124:50 pm
Coach – Well you’ve added Jurrjens and Sheets to the mix, so hopefully that ERA is going to go down. But I’m fine adding another bat and pitcher, but I’d rather have a bat. We’ve got a ton of pitchers we can still try….Medlen/Sheets/Teheran/Delgado/Minor. Two of those guys have to be able to pitch halfway decently.
We need a starter and bp arm, not an OF.
Verlander is dating Upton
The promotion of youthful talent to the major league roster does not justify poor drafting.
Sure as hell doesn’t stop the Texas Rangers from being a friggin machine. Or Toronto. Or Tampa.
These teams don’t stop in the middle of a pre-draft meeting, look at eachother and say “You know what folks, we’ve got a great system….let’s pack it up and call it a day. Just sign me some more 4 year college seniors and we’re done”.
July 11th, 20124:51 pm
I like Strasburg and Harper.
What about Nyjer Morgan?
If someone makes a post-hate list, I think Melky should be #1
Actually what I said was that Beltran had a history of injury (that’’s what you call missing two full seasons) and that the Braves neither had the money to sign him nor would they.
July 11th, 20124:52 pm
You win with your pitching and defense. Heyward,Bourn and Prado is a fine OF.
NickB – Except some of those career stats are frontloaded and some are backloaded. I’ll take the guy who seems to be progressing, not regressing.
My biggest gripe with BJ is that he seems to have peaked in 2007 and 2008. You would expect the kid to be peaking right now rather than doing whatever it is he is doing.
July 11th, 20124:53 pm
BLOG’S TOP TEN PRE-HATED PLAYERS
10- BJ Upton
9- Zack Geinke
8- Ben Sheets
7- Tyler Pastornicky (2nd time on the list this year)
1-Dan Uggla (pre hated, post hated, some people will hate him if he hits 60 hR’s, he;s first on every Braves hate list, regardless if it makes sense)
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