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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
2,027 comments Add your comment
tony austin
July 2nd, 2012
4:58 pm
One thing about the Sheets signing is at least the Braves don’t have to face him. Even if that was the only reason they signed him, that’s good enough for me
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
4:58 pm
may the baseball god please deliver us from those who don’t understand the game and so rely on outdated stats and bad old timey myths about small ball so that the rest of us can move forward with intelligent discussion
Shaun
July 2nd, 2012
4:59 pm
Karl Hungus, yes, BABIP is a more telling indicator of luck when looking at pitchers. McCann’s BABIP this season may be a result of some luck or may be other factors entirely or may be a combination of luck and other factors. But whether it’s luck or not, the important thing to keep in mind is that McCann’s BABIP this season is .229 while his career BABIP is .295. No matter the reason or reasons for this difference, I would bet that .229 isn’t sustainable.
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
4:59 pm
ncscoots
argument from authority fallacy
just cuz yer old doesn’t magically give you insight
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
5:00 pm
Shaun
I guess that depends on what you call luck. I call it anything that cannot be controlled directly by the batter….
Jimmy
July 2nd, 2012
5:01 pm
Wow Fish! Just wow.
ncscoots
July 2nd, 2012
5:04 pm
just cuz yer old doesn’t magically give you insight
Nothing magic about it, son.
Murph
July 2nd, 2012
5:04 pm
No matter the reason or reasons for this difference, I would bet that .229 isn’t sustainable.
You mean he’s going to get WORSE?!?
ChattTownBrian
July 2nd, 2012
5:04 pm
Greinke has to be the tops on Wren’s list I would imagine. He’s what, 28, and just now in his prime. Something tells me with his fragile mental state, as far as that anxiety issue, he would love the idea playing for not only a contending team now and the future, but the Braves aren’t exactly in that spot light he doesn’t seem to like anyways. That plays in our favor I bet.
George Stein
July 2nd, 2012
5:05 pm
I’m certainly not qualified to analyze things like bat speed and the like, but perhaps there’s part of the explanation for his BABIP in something like that. It should probably be higher than .229, though.
Karl Hungus
July 2nd, 2012
5:05 pm
I’m not saying luck plays no part in BABIP. It plays a large part. I’m just saying luck isn’t the only thing that plays a part. And that luck is EVEN MORE of a component for pitcher BABIP.
As hitters decline, the accompanying decline in BABIP can be attributed to their declining ability to hit. Making weaker contact, hitting more ground balls, etc. Since early May, McCann’s LD% is trending downward and his GB% is trending up. No he shouldn’t be BABIPing around .225, but it’s not unreasonable to expect it to be below league average the way he’s hitting the ball. McCann’s career BABIP is right around league average, and he’s been a far better than league average hitter for most of his career. Simple luck WILL raise his numbers to a certain extent, but the batted ball profile also needs to change.
TheOnlyBravesFan
July 2nd, 2012
5:05 pm
Delgado would be my guess @Jamesh17 who do u think Sheets will replace in the rotation? My guess is Minor
Karl Hungus
July 2nd, 2012
5:07 pm
Shaun, the .229 probably isn’t sustainable. But it’s also unlikely he BABIPs around .300 for the rest of the season unless he starts hitting more line drives.
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
5:07 pm
karl
ahhhhhh, that’s not how i read what you said earlier, thanks for clarifying
RC
July 2nd, 2012
5:07 pm
but a drop of over 60 points is due to bad luck, unless it’s accompanied with an increase in K% and a drop in BB%
They say a little bit of knowledge can be a dangerous thing, and there certainly is no more than a little bit of knowledge in these statements.
K% and BB% have absolutely 0 effect on BABIP, since the definition is “batting average on balls IN PLAY” (which excludes K’s and BB’s). It IS possible that a decrease in batting skill can be accompanied by change in K% or BB%, but BABIP itself is entirely separate from either of those stats. There are a ton of things that can lower a players BABIP; sudden inability to hit the ball with any authority, changing from a high percentage of ground balls to a high percentage of fly balls, more efficient placement of the players on defense (discussed here earlier), or, as you stated, bad luck. But to say that this one stat conclusively says a player has been unlucky is sloppy, lazy analysis.
TheOnlyBravesFan
July 2nd, 2012
5:07 pm
Mark Bowman @mlbbowman
Delgado would be my guess @Jamesh17 who do u think Sheets will replace in the rotation? My guess is Minor
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
5:08 pm
I don’t think it’s ALL attributable to luck either, some of it is the shift, some of it is he’s pressing and swinging at bad pitches but a lot of it is bad luck
Efrim
July 2nd, 2012
5:08 pm
Ryan Dempster (lat) threw 40 pitches during a bullpen session Monday.
The next step is for Dempster to throw a simulated game. Barring any setbacks, he should return right after the All-Star break. If he can prove his health, he could be swapped to a contender leading up to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.
He’s probably my preference over anyone because of the high cost of others(Greinke, Garza), or questions around their ability(Liriano, Vargas). Dempster isn’t going to cost a ton and is a solid pickup for 2 months.
George Stein
July 2nd, 2012
5:08 pm
Batters have some control over BABIP, NickB. Pitchers generally (GENERALLY!!!) don’t.
But players who hit for more line drives and players with speed tend to be able to sustain a BABIP over .300 with some consistency.
ChattTownBrian
July 2nd, 2012
5:09 pm
Would not complain a bit if we get Dempster though either. Garza is somebody I am not all that thrilled over. His numbers scream #3 guy big time. I read attitude is a kind of a problem also with him and he is definitely high strung. He just doesn’t seem like a Brave, if that makes sense.
Liriano? Nah, don’t want him. Got enough projects going in the rotation enough as it is. I’d like them to stay away from him.
Efrim
July 2nd, 2012
5:09 pm
Mark Bowman @mlbbowman
Delgado would be my guess @Jamesh17 who do u think Sheets will replace in the rotation? My guess is Minor
Yes, that’s because Polished will be pitching for the Brewers.
RC
July 2nd, 2012
5:09 pm
Something tells me with his fragile mental state, as far as that anxiety issue, he would love the idea playing for not only a contending team now and the future, but the Braves aren’t exactly in that spot light he doesn’t seem to like anyways. That plays in our favor I bet.
Something tells me that you just pulled that statement out of your @$$.
Shaun
July 2nd, 2012
5:10 pm
NickB, some hitters will post BABIPs noticeably over or under .300 over a large sample. For pitchers, there’s not as much variance. Over the long haul almost all pitchers will be around .300. So BABIP is more useful in terms of figuring out which players have been lucky when looking at pitchers. It’s not quite as useful with hitters.
It could be that McCann isn’t merely hitting in to bad luck, although it’s possible that he is or that it’s at least a significant factor.
My point is that whether it’s luck or not or whether luck is the primary factor or not, I would be willing to bet his current low BABIP isn’t sustainable, that it will increase. It may not increase to the .295 level by season’s end but I would bet it doesn’t remain all that close to .229.
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
5:10 pm
RC
……………..argh!!!!
i DID NOT SAY that bb% and K% had anything to do with babip, but I DID say that IF a drop in BABIP is also accompanied with an increase in K% and a drop in BB% it COULD be an indicatio in a decline the individual players skill set
Karl Hungus
July 2nd, 2012
5:10 pm
Also, NickB, not sure where you’re going with the increased K rate and decreased BB rate, since neither of those are factored into BABIP. If anything, McCann needs to strike out a little more, like Uggla last season. His O-Contact% is at a career high right now, which is another factor leading to low BABIP. Be more selective on pitches out of the zone, square up pitches in the zone, good things happen.
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
5:11 pm
*an indication of a decline in the individual player’s skillset*
i type too dadburn fast
Karl Hungus
July 2nd, 2012
5:11 pm
Ok, misread that part. Rest of the comment still stands.
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
5:12 pm
shaun
i agree, it is not sustainable, and i would think that even a bad year for Mac would be in the mid .260’s
BFChris27
July 2nd, 2012
5:14 pm
Dontrelle Willis is retiring.
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
5:15 pm
and my comment about BB% and K% was in regards to Tex as his babip has been on a downward trend and he is walking less too.
I think this whole misunderstanding started because you assumed I thought that mac’s entire probelm was bad luck, and i assumed you were saying that none of his problem was bad luck, turns out , i think, we were pretty much saying the same thing
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
5:15 pm
Dontrelle Willis
boy once that weird delivery of his got figured out he never was the same
TheOnlyBravesFan
July 2nd, 2012
5:16 pm
Mark Bowman @mlbbowman
Either Teheran, Minor or Delgado and maybe a mid-level prospect @obechkinsbuddy if we get grienke who do u think we would have to give up
urban redneck
July 2nd, 2012
5:16 pm
FF is a better 1B than his stats indicate for sure.
we need help off the bench. none of our pinch hitters are gettin it done. regarding our pitching dilemma, send minor down, and let medlen join the rotation. if sheets is not sheet-y (you like that?), then he should take delgado’s spot for the time being.
64 year Braves fan
July 2nd, 2012
5:18 pm
Good lineup tonite but I would swap Simmons and Uggla. Simmons puts the ball in play. Uggla swings and misses 70% of the time.
Arkansas Transplant
July 2nd, 2012
5:18 pm
I’d take Greinke over all of the other option but that’s under the assumption we sign him to a contract. I just think he’s the best available right now and a true ace with a power arm.
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
5:19 pm
Meds belongs in the pen, heck the way he’s been hit lately, I don’t think he would be much of an improvement over Minor
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
5:20 pm
anyone know where I could find the data for how often inherited runners score with less than 2 outs in MLB?
ncbravesfan90
July 2nd, 2012
5:20 pm
Zack Greinke:
25-8 273.2 IP 303 k’s 3.32 ERA over the entire 2011 season and the 2012 season so far, pretty dang good numbers, definitely ace material. I sure hope Wren can pull this deal off with a 5 year extension.
ChattTownBrian
July 2nd, 2012
5:21 pm
KC, that wasn’t nice at all. I play tough, but I’m a sensitive tulip on most days. Shame on you and all you macho bullies out there!
Karl Hungus
July 2nd, 2012
5:22 pm
“Having conversations via comments threads is a great way to understand exactly what points others are trying to make,” said no one.
Sweet Old Buck
July 2nd, 2012
5:22 pm
What you going to do, Frank? You’re over a barrel because of your inaction last winter. You are dealing from a very weak position. Good luck!
Efrim
July 2nd, 2012
5:23 pm
Mark Bowman @mlbbowman
Either Teheran, Minor or Delgado and maybe a mid-level prospect @obechkinsbuddy if we get grienke who do u think we would have to give up
I don’t disagree that they’ll ask for that based on what Sabean gave the Mets(Zack Wheeler) for two months of Carlos Beltran. Will they take Minor is the question? They certainly shouldn’t trade Julio or Randall for him.
ChattTownBrian
July 2nd, 2012
5:24 pm
What won my wife’s heart was this gem of a line “I am like a flower that needs love to bloom”
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
5:25 pm
I bet Minor would require 2 extra parts, where delgado would require one ,and Teheran would do it on his own…..
I have no evidence for this, but if I was the Brewers, that’s the way I’d push it
ChattTownBrian
July 2nd, 2012
5:25 pm
I’m kidding about those last few posts.
faninva
July 2nd, 2012
5:25 pm
how many votes to you get on mlb.com for final all-star voting? i’ve been voting for chipper for about 15 minutes. still going.
ncbravesfan90
July 2nd, 2012
5:26 pm
Another positive for Greinke:
Career vs Washington: 2 games 14IP 3ER 1 Walk 15 k’s 1.93 ERA .160 BAA
I know that’s a small sample size but we need someone desperately who can help us defeat Washington. I mean, Greinke has not even given up in 14 innings vs Washington what Hudson gave up in one inning vs Washington this year.
Capitol Ave
July 2nd, 2012
5:26 pm
DOB asks … “Can the Braves just stick with what they have and expect it all to come together?”
Wait, I thought was Frank Wren’s whole strategy for 2012. Forget 2011, “I like our club,” said do-nothing Frank.
A bench of Wilson, Francisco, Diaz and Francisco is an embarrassment of non-production.
ChattTownBrian
July 2nd, 2012
5:27 pm
I really do not like some bloggers here. It’s like they make you dislike them. Cheap shot other Braves fans is weird and shouldn’t happen. KC is a cheap shotter.
TheOnlyBravesFan
July 2nd, 2012
5:28 pm
Just caught the cutest baby rabbit, a shame we can’t keep it.
Karl Hungus
July 2nd, 2012
5:29 pm
If Fredi were allowed to pinch hit with Francisco twice per game, we’d REALLY be in trouble.
IlliniBrave
July 2nd, 2012
5:30 pm
I’m not a fan of hardly any of the proposed trades – at least the ones that are realistic. We’re not going to get Greinke for Minor and a mid-level prospect. Not when other teams are prepared to give more. And then we have the ole “three month rental player” syndrome, which I never like. I can’t see any one player getting us over the hump and deep into the post-season.
On the other hand, a year and a half of Garza for Minor and another prospect is intriguing.
jeffrey d
July 2nd, 2012
5:30 pm
KC is a cheap shotter.
Didn’t you say something like “nolie is shyt” last night?
Efrim
July 2nd, 2012
5:30 pm
Joe Johnson traded to Brooklyn. Atlanta Hawks fans rejoice.
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
5:31 pm
Illinibrave
i wouldn’t be so sure teams will be willing to give more, that may have been true back when they could recoup draft picks if the player chose not to re-sign, but now they cannot, so i see most rental players going for much less than we are used to seeing
Efrim
July 2nd, 2012
5:31 pm
Didn’t you say something like “nolie is shyt” last night?
Bizarre comment. Bizarre poster.
TheOnlyBravesFan
July 2nd, 2012
5:32 pm
I’m surprised M Bowman thinks Delgado might be replaced…. I mean, Minor’s been way worse.
Kentavo
July 2nd, 2012
5:32 pm
One of my favorite things about watching the Braves is when they give up gobs of runs to the poorest hitting teams in MLB – the Padres, Giants and Cubs of the world make ‘em look like batting practice. Why is that?
Largo
July 2nd, 2012
5:32 pm
If a pitcher who is a bit shy of a .500 career won/lost record and making 9.5M per year, then Garza is your man.
ChattTownBrian
July 2nd, 2012
5:32 pm
i agree that Wren is paying for sitting on his hands pretty much all winter. In a way, I understood that strategy and it wasn’t like there were tons of gems out there in the offseason anyhow. But relying so heavily on guys like JJ, who was coming off injury and very inexperienced rooks like Delgado and Minor, has bit him. Hopefully he can right this and acquire a good one in the next few weeks or so.
The bench is hideous. Not even going there. Bout as bad as I’ve seen one of our benches.
TheOnlyBravesFan
July 2nd, 2012
5:32 pm
Joe Johnson traded to Brooklyn. Atlanta Hawks fans rejoice.
YES!!!
IlliniBrave
July 2nd, 2012
5:33 pm
CTB: I agree. Some back-and-forth and disagreement is fine, but the condescending put-downs and downright meanspirited insults are just too much.
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
5:33 pm
Largo
you don’t think that his won loss record is attributable to the fact that he pitches for the lowly Cubs?
MFin04
July 2nd, 2012
5:34 pm
Not sure why anyone would pay soo much for Joe Johnson.
ChattTownBrian
July 2nd, 2012
5:34 pm
nolie understands my sarcasm. He has sort of the same blog humor. If somebody can’t figure this out by now then I don’t know what to say anymore.
Lee Maye
July 2nd, 2012
5:34 pm
Lucas Sims made his pro debut today in the GCL. 3 IP 2 hits 2runs-1 earned; 1 BB, 2 K’s; 1 HR.
For those who have been asking, Jordan Parraz also played for the first time in about 2 months. He is rehabbing in Orlando.
Gattis still hasn’t played. He is rehabbing too.
jeffrey d
July 2nd, 2012
5:35 pm
Yeah here it is
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2012/07/01/not-a-clown-questionbro-could-simmons-push-harper-for-roy/?cp=all#comment-1684693
David O'Brien
July 2nd, 2012
5:35 pm
Braves lineup: Bourn cf, Prado lf, Heyward rf, Jones 3b, Freeman 1b, Uggla 2b, McCann c, Simmons ss, Hanson p
IlliniBrave
July 2nd, 2012
5:36 pm
JOE JOHNSON IS GONE! JOE JOHNSON IS GONE! JOE JOHNSON IS GONE!
AND THE DODGERS HAVE WON THE PENNANT!
Ooops, brain circuitry on overload with this fantastic news!
Efrim
July 2nd, 2012
5:37 pm
I’m surprised M Bowman thinks Delgado might be replaced…. I mean, Minor’s been way worse.
It’s like he forgot who Mike Minor was or something. Minor has less value than Delgado or Teheran. Across 3 seasons, he’s pitched to a career ERA of over 5.
jeffrey d
July 2nd, 2012
5:37 pm
Well I’m glad that the Hawks (potentially) got rid of Joe’s contract, but this doesn’t make it sound too glamorous
The Hawks and Nets have agreed to terms on a trade that will send All-Star guard Joe Johnson to Brooklyn for expiring contracts
Danga
July 2nd, 2012
5:37 pm
Not sure why anyone would pay soo much for Joe Johnson.
Just glad someone else is doing it now.
David O'Brien
July 2nd, 2012
5:38 pm
Took this pick of Simmons during BP just a while ago:
http://yfrog.com/nzhk0vdj
ChattTownBrian
July 2nd, 2012
5:38 pm
people are mean spirited anyways. But I have learned when you confront most face to face they will be nice spirited in the blink of an eye. Not all of course, but most. A lot of very nice people out there too that have forced me to not judge a book by its cover.
Abandon
July 2nd, 2012
5:38 pm
I liked the lineup a tad better with Uggla sandwiched between Chipper and Freeman. I thought that was a good chance for him to break out.
faninva
July 2nd, 2012
5:39 pm
Who’s Joe Johnson?
Danga
July 2nd, 2012
5:39 pm
Well I’m glad that the Hawks (potentially) got rid of Joe’s contract, but this doesn’t make it sound too glamorous
Yeah…Joe is still a very good player even if overpaid. Likely means the Hawks won’t be as good in the short term. Hopefully Ferry has a plan.
Efrim
July 2nd, 2012
5:39 pm
Not sure why anyone would pay soo much for Joe Johnson.
Shocking that the Nets would give up on Dwight Howard and go for…..Joe….Johnson.
I guess they really believe that Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez can win…a first round series?
IlliniBrave
July 2nd, 2012
5:39 pm
jeffrey: first of all, what do you think we would get for Oh-so-slow-Joe? With the most expensive contract in the NBA? The fact that we didn’t have to eat a huge chunk of his contract is amazing.
Screwball
July 2nd, 2012
5:40 pm
Hawks are going to trade Joe Johnson. Breaking news. New GM is not going to put up with the SOS any longer. The Braves need a new GM to think likewise.
Arkansas Transplant
July 2nd, 2012
5:40 pm
I say, Greinke and Khris Davis for Minor, Perez and Ahmed.
jeffrey d
July 2nd, 2012
5:40 pm
people are mean spirited anyways. But I have learned when you confront most face to face they will be nice spirited in the blink of an eye
The anonymity of the internet makes people forget that they’re talking to another human, and makes them say stuff that they would never say to someone’s face.
And from what I’ve observed, for kids who’ve grown up with the internet in their lives all along it’s becoming the norm to make comments like this. You ever want to feel bad about humanity, look at some of the comments on YouTube
Efrim
July 2nd, 2012
5:41 pm
The NBA is the only sport where it makes sense to rebuild even if you have young players. THE sport where Stars win titles and none of the rest really matters.
MFin04
July 2nd, 2012
5:41 pm
No way that Joe Johnson of all people keeps Deron Williams in town.
Thank you Atlanta, Love the Dallas Mavericks.
jeffrey d
July 2nd, 2012
5:42 pm
Illini – yeah Joe has a huge contract but he’s still a good player.
Efrim
July 2nd, 2012
5:43 pm
I say, Greinke and Khris Davis for Minor, Perez and Ahmed.
I’d target Ahmed if I were other GM’s. Not a star, but I think he’s one of the best position players in the system above Low-A. Not really sure if he can stick at SS, and really may not hit enough for a corner. Could be a solid everyday 2B.
faninva
July 2nd, 2012
5:43 pm
it’s called internet bullying – and it’s a big problem, especially among kids.
MFin04
July 2nd, 2012
5:43 pm
Simmons swinging so hard his belt is undone.
TheOnlyBravesFan
July 2nd, 2012
5:44 pm
Not sure why anyone would pay soo much for Joe Johnson
Just glad someone else is doing it now.
I’m happy that he’s gone from this team. Useless come playoff time, not great any other time.
IlliniBrave
July 2nd, 2012
5:44 pm
I’ve met Deron Williams. and he is the nicest most humble guy you could imagine in an NBA uniform. Comes to town every once in awhile for a major charity event, signs all kinds of autographs, chats with fans, etc. Just a great guy. While I’ve never met Joe Johnson, I’d venture to say they are very different people.
jeffrey d
July 2nd, 2012
5:45 pm
It’s not all as bad as bullying…it’s jut common decency going down the toilet.
Efrim
July 2nd, 2012
5:46 pm
No way that Joe Johnson of all people keeps Deron Williams in town.
It shouldn’t. I’d bolt for Dallas if I were Deron. But they’ll sell him on Brook Lopez, Joe Johnson, Gerald Wallace foursome. They’d be a middle of thepack Eastern Conference Team. Battling with the likes of New York, Indiana, Philly and probably Chicago given Rose’s injury. Boston and Miami are the favorites in the East next year.
BravesfaninWis
July 2nd, 2012
5:47 pm
The Braves will drop the ball in making a trade to help this team, they always do. Regardless of who they get, that player will be gone either after this season or next season when their contract expires because the Braves are to damn cheap to keep them.
TheOnlyBravesFan
July 2nd, 2012
5:47 pm
I say, Greinke and Khris Davis for Minor, Perez and Ahmed.
More than that, I think. Throw in Spruill and maybe Salcedo
Danga
July 2nd, 2012
5:47 pm
I’d bolt for Dallas if I were Deron
NJ will be able to offer the most money though, right?
IlliniBrave
July 2nd, 2012
5:47 pm
Uh… Joe Johnson is NOT a good player – at least in terms of value per dollar. Hell, his contract is richer than D-Wade, Melo, Lebron, Kobe, anybody. Hawks have definitely not gotten their money’s wroth. No player should take up that much cap space.
jeffrey d
July 2nd, 2012
5:47 pm
The Nets might be middle-of-the-pack this year, but if they signed Dwight Howard next offseason they’d be in the upper tier
TheOnlyBravesFan
July 2nd, 2012
5:48 pm
http://t.co/WthLiQYg
ChattTownBrian
July 2nd, 2012
5:48 pm
I know some say Simmons has a long swing, and he does, but I love the way he drived through the ball. He’s so impressive in so many ways, including his attitude. He’s one of those players I would even like if he were on a rival team after not only watching his talent, but in interviews.
Jeff R
July 2nd, 2012
5:48 pm
So, the Braves rotation could be Hudson, Hanson, Dempster, Jurrjens/Sheets, and Minor or Delgado?
Hmm… I’m not quite popping the cork on the champagne yet.