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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
2,027 comments Add your comment
Efrim
July 2nd, 2012
4:16 pm
While a large part of that might be luck, a significant portion is also likely the shifts employeed against McCann, which have gotten more widely used and extreme this season.
Was thinking that same thing
What is Teixiera’s BABIP? He has not done well with the shift the last couple years.
TheOnlyBravesFan
July 2nd, 2012
4:16 pm
do you all think the braves will pick up Bmac’s option?
Ummm, yeah. For 1, we don’t have another catcher, 2nd, if he starts hitting, he’s a pretty good bargain.
PMC
July 2nd, 2012
4:18 pm
Given the excellent breakdown by DOB above, it’s time to take Mac and Uggla out of the middle of the order positions for a while. I know that’s where we pay them to play. I know that, but the RISP numbers might be better if they weren’t getting the opportunities so often. That, and for whatever reason the bottom of the order seems to be hot lately.
George Stein
July 2nd, 2012
4:19 pm
No doubt, Efrim.
Bat Masterson
July 2nd, 2012
4:19 pm
the funny thing is, right now there are 100 people reading this and agreeing with you _ NickB
No, Nick. I don’t think so.
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
4:19 pm
Tex’s babip has been trending down for 4 straight years.(as has his BB%)… looks like he may be truly declining as a hitter.
Arkansas Transplant
July 2nd, 2012
4:20 pm
Trade and sign Greinke, first and foremost.. leaving a possible rotation of Greinke, Hudson, Hanson, JJ and Sheets/Delgado for the rest of the season. At the same time we would strengthen next years rotation with a true ace. If we could get Khris Davis also in return that would give us a possible replacement in LF after Prado moves to 3rd next season. Another must would be to acquire Willingham to fill our void in LF and bench roll whether Prado is playing LF or 3rd. Not to mention another right handed bat.
TennesseePaul
July 2nd, 2012
4:21 pm
How can a team try to acquire players who are good at driving in runs?
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
4:22 pm
wheras Mac’s babip has been steady for 3 years (.297, .297, .287 ) until all of a sudden it’s now .229
with his BB% only down .06 from his career avg ,that seems to point towards a really unlucky year with balls in play
Ralph
July 2nd, 2012
4:22 pm
Ralph
July 2nd, 2012
I just answered my own question, Dodgers signed him 3 days ago for 42 million
4:06 pm
What’s the latest on that other Cuban defector, another outfielder reported to be better than the one the Cubs signed for 32 million
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Dodgers-sign-Cuban-defector-Puig-to-7year-deal-02768024
WBuckATC
July 2nd, 2012
4:23 pm
We do not need to empty the minors in a trade. Elvis Andrus and Matt Harrions both are AL All Stars. Feliz is on the DL, but has put up big numbers in the past. These are just three of the players sent in the Tex deal to Texas.If a trade is made, Minor is a good place to start. I am afraid that Delgado and Teheran (although still considered top prospects) have seen their value drop this season.
Hope sheets work out and maybe Medlen maybe the other alternatice. I still wish the Braves would see What Redmond can do. Stay within the organization as much as possible before gogin outside for an answer.
Our bench does need some help.
RC
July 2nd, 2012
4:23 pm
AT,
I like your idea of trading for Grienke, although I am not sure if the prospects you named would get it done. As for signing him AND Willingham for 2013, I have no idea where the money for those deals would come from, especially when considering the the Braves will still need a CF next year (even if they resign Bourn, that’s money that can’t be paid to Grienke or Willingham).
TennesseePaul
July 2nd, 2012
4:24 pm
Except one of the outcomes – homers – is missing this year.
So far. He could turn that around real fast.
Shaun
July 2nd, 2012
4:25 pm
RC, I do suspect shifts may have led to McCann’s struggles. Maybe it’s not necessarily just because he’s hitting in to shifts but also because he’s changing things to avoid the shifts and it’s messing with his swing. Eventually I suspect he’ll figure things out.
George Stein, I don’t think Uggla will age all that gracefully. But I think he’ll be good enough to hang in there as a decent major league regular throughout most of his contract. But I’m with you that his days as an All-Star may be over if not next season, then 2014. But maybe he’ll have a flukey year or two before it’s up.
TennesseePaul
July 2nd, 2012
4:25 pm
This time last year Uggla had 7 HR, then went on to set a single season career high in HR.
RC
July 2nd, 2012
4:26 pm
Texiera’s BABIP has declined over the past few years, although the large portion of that decline has been from the left side. One of the explanations that Tex has acknowledged in the media is that he has been intentionally trying to lift the ball batting left hand thanks to the short porch in RF at Yankees Stadium, which could lead to more fly-balls (and a lower BABIP).
TennesseePaul
July 2nd, 2012
4:26 pm
**personal single season career high.
MFin04
July 2nd, 2012
4:27 pm
“whereas Mac’s babip has been steady for 3 years (.297, .297, .287 ) until all of a sudden it’s now .229″
Nope. He keeps hitting into the shift he is going to have a low average. I mean until he starts to hit the ball to all fields, he is pretty much screwed. That or hit it out of the park or off the wall in right.
Ralph
July 2nd, 2012
4:27 pm
We are all doing a lot of wishful thinking, sad truth though is nothing good is going to happen with the braves this year.
Arkansas Transplant
July 2nd, 2012
4:28 pm
RC, money would be the only issue but the Braves have stated that they would be willing to pull some funds for next season back to this one. If we were to get Greinke, I’d say adios to Bourn and probably hello to either Cunningham/Pagan/or someone along those lines. We could even possibly use Heyward in CF if need be but that probably wouldn’t be ideal.
McFann :Ô: :Ô: :ô:
July 2nd, 2012
4:30 pm
BuyTheBravesArtherBlank and it hasn’t even been talked about much…….
It’s been batted around this Blog like a pinball in a…pinball machine…or something like that…But as far as on TV and stuff, I agree—the TV guys don’t really talk about BMac, even when he’s batting…
Efrim
July 2nd, 2012
4:30 pm
Who’d a thunk we’d end up with Hudson, Hanson, [insert pitcher acquired by deadline], Jurrjens, and Ben Sheets around mid-May?
RC
July 2nd, 2012
4:31 pm
While I don’t have data to support the theory, I also wonder if Mac’s speed (or lack thereof) plays a part in the shift being more effective against him. It appears that teams shifting against Mac actually play quite a bit deeper than against other players, knowing that with his slow time to first they will have plenty of time to make a play on a soft hit ball, while being able to cover more ground on all other hits. There have been a number of plays I remember where Mac was thrown out by less than a step, where most other hitters on the team would have been safe easily.
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
4:32 pm
MFin04
NOPE , yer wrong, the shift will not make that drastic of a difference in ANYONE’S babip results, never has, never will
he has gotten very unlucky on balls in play, it happens, we don’t want Mac going to the opposite field, it sucks all his power away……….. he’s a pull hitter, and he needs to remain a pull hitter, the fact that he has hit a ton of balls hard right at people in right field is testament to how bad of luck he has had on balls in play, shift or no shift, line drives WILL find holes.
the opposite of this happens too, players have massive babip years where everything drops, it’s called a “CAREER YEAR”
happens to pitchers too, one year Maddux gave up the most hits in the NL
TheOnlyBravesFan
July 2nd, 2012
4:32 pm
Can we stop talking about struggling hitters, especially McCann? (for McFann at least?) This isn’t the way to break our Monday losing streak either….
Ralph
July 2nd, 2012
4:33 pm
McFann :Ô: :Ô: :ô:
July 2nd, 2012
4:30 pm
If you can’t say anything good, don’t say anything at all is their thinking!
RC
July 2nd, 2012
4:33 pm
AT,
I was thinking more about money being an issue with your plans for 2013 (the Willingham idea), not in the current season. I actually think the Braves might have the money to resign Bourn AND offer a contract to Greinke, but I don’t think that Willingham fits into that scenario in any way.
phil
July 2nd, 2012
4:33 pm
Strikeouts and grounders to first are not bad luck…
Arkansas Transplant
July 2nd, 2012
4:34 pm
McCann is just going to have to start burning some teams to the opposite field.
Shaun
July 2nd, 2012
4:34 pm
I doubt defensive shifts will result in anything close to a .229 BABIP for a hitter with a BABIP in the .290s. Perhaps when this season is over, his BABIP for the year will be lower than his career BABIP but I doubt it will be as extreme as it is at this point in the season.
MFin04
July 2nd, 2012
4:35 pm
“the shift will not make that drastic of a difference in ANYONE’S babip results, never has, never will”
Sure it will. Especially when you can play in the shallow outfield to field his hard hit balls and still throw him out at first.
TheOnlyBravesFan
July 2nd, 2012
4:35 pm
Who’d a thunk we’d end up with Hudson, Hanson, [insert pitcher acquired by deadline], Jurrjens, and Ben Sheets around mid-May?
Not me for sure. Also didn’t expect Simmons on the big-league roster,nor McCann to be mired in such a slump. I thought he’d have turned it around from last year. Shows how much I know…
jeffrey d
July 2nd, 2012
4:35 pm
It’s been batted around this Blog like a
Mike Minor fastball?
Karl Hungus
July 2nd, 2012
4:35 pm
Joe Terdoslavich for Greinke straight-up. DOUBLES MACHINE.
ncscoots
July 2nd, 2012
4:36 pm
Payne, I’m saying your posts seem to indicate you haven’t paid one bit of attention over the last two years.
It’s hardly worth the bother, anymore, LOL. I’ll usually give a thread one post, max, and then just ignore the rest. By the time the next fifteen or so have shown up, the content has become something like that old game where you whisper the phrase around the room, just to see how mangled it can get at the end.
phil
July 2nd, 2012
4:36 pm
The TV guys are being sensitive to Mac’s delicate constitution and don’t want to offend him by actually saying that he’s stunk up the joint this season, for whatever reason…
Not that I think giving him grief would help. Of course it wouldn’t, unless making him mad as heck is known to help his hitting.
Is there a stat for hitting mad as hell?
(Rob from SC)
July 2nd, 2012
4:39 pm
Shocking Announcement
Reports say the Blue Jays are souring Yunel Escobar, and could soon trade him
Ralph
July 2nd, 2012
4:39 pm
Gattis is coming in July to save us!
TheOnlyBravesFan
July 2nd, 2012
4:39 pm
Kevin McAlpin @KevinMcAlpin
Fredi (on McCann): “I’m not worried about him. You see him walking around and he’s upbeat and he’s confident” #Braves
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
4:40 pm
we shall win today and break the streak 9-5
ncscoots
July 2nd, 2012
4:40 pm
he has gotten very unlucky on balls in play
Analyzing BABIP in a vacuum and ascribing it solely to “luck” is not a good move, Nick.
TheOnlyBravesFan
July 2nd, 2012
4:41 pm
team player: Kevin McAlpin @KevinMcAlpin
When Fredi told McCann he was hitting 7th, he said “wherever you put me, I dont care. I want to win, that’s my number one goal” #Braves
Arkansas Transplant
July 2nd, 2012
4:41 pm
If we’re going to trade for Greinke, sooner is better in that instance. Let’s not wait until we’re in total ketchup mode.
Shaun
July 2nd, 2012
4:41 pm
If anyone thinks baseball offense is about anything other than creating runs, he hasn’t paid one bit of attention over the last 150 years.
jeffrey d
July 2nd, 2012
4:42 pm
Is Gattis playing again?
Arkansas Transplant
July 2nd, 2012
4:42 pm
Efrim, what do you think it would take to get Willingham? What type of package?
Murph
July 2nd, 2012
4:42 pm
My projected 2013 starting lineup:
1. Simmons (SS)
2. Prado (3B)
3. Heyward (CF)
4. Uggla (2B)
5. McCann (C)
6. Willingham (LF)
7. Freeman (1B)
8. Some scrub or 40 year old or career minor leaguer (RF)
flange1
July 2nd, 2012
4:42 pm
Huh?
Karl Hungus
July 2nd, 2012
4:43 pm
Hahahahaha ketchup mode. I hope that was on purpose.
Shaun
July 2nd, 2012
4:43 pm
Analyzing BABIP in a vacuum and ascribing it solely to “luck” is not a good move, Nick.
I agree with this. But whether is solely luck or is a combination of factors, I would bet that McCann’s BABIP isn’t going to remain as low as it is at this point in the season, shifts or no shifts.
MFin04
July 2nd, 2012
4:43 pm
“anyone thinks baseball offense is about anything other than creating runs, he hasn’t paid one bit of attention over the last 150 years.”
What does a statement like this even mean?
Efrim
July 2nd, 2012
4:43 pm
Reports say the Blue Jays are souring Yunel Escobar, and could soon trade him
Too bad we have a SS. I’d love to have him back.
jeffrey d
July 2nd, 2012
4:44 pm
I think baseball offense is all about RBIs
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
4:44 pm
ncscoots
ummm, that’s what it describes………. babip IS the % of luck on balls in play, there is no evidence that hitters have control over where batted balls land, player can tattoo 5 straight pitches right at a fielder and player b can look awful on 5 straight pitches and flare them into no mans land for 5 hits.
Sopheee
July 2nd, 2012
4:44 pm
Bloggism! Congrats, Arky.
Efrim
July 2nd, 2012
4:44 pm
what do you think it would take to get Willingham? What type of package?
Pitching. They have none. Like literally none in their system. Any and all kinds they will take.
Murph
July 2nd, 2012
4:45 pm
If anyone thinks baseball offense is about anything other than creating runs, he hasn’t paid one bit of attention over the last 150 years.
There’s only 3 guys on here who have been around all 150 years… and I think a lapse in their attention span during that time is understandable.
It’s a good thing forums weren’t around during the whole “flying machine” days. nolie would have raked those Wright brothers over the coals.
Arkansas Transplant
July 2nd, 2012
4:45 pm
Murph, I like your lineup.. what’s the rotation prediction?
Efrim
July 2nd, 2012
4:45 pm
Double-A Mississippi has a nice little rotation of Gilmartin, Spruill, Hale and Avilan going on right now. Hale has pitched much better as of late. He’s 24 in Double-A, turning 25 this September, but heck, who cares?
PMC
July 2nd, 2012
4:46 pm
I’m intrigued by Liriano, mostly because he’s a lefty and maybe wouldn’t cost Tehran.
Ralph
July 2nd, 2012
4:46 pm
jeffrey d
2 more weeks
ncscoots
July 2nd, 2012
4:46 pm
ummm, that’s what it describes
Perhaps it does, to you.
jeffrey d
July 2nd, 2012
4:46 pm
Bloggism! Congrats, Arky.
haha! I missed that…was it intentional?
ncbravesfan90
July 2nd, 2012
4:46 pm
Guys on 680 The Fan seem to think the rotation will look very different come July 31st, they said:
Hanson
One of Dempster, Graza, or Grenike
Hudson
Sheets
JJ
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
4:47 pm
you create runs by getting people on base more often than the other team, as RISP is not a batting skill, over time, the team’s with the best OBP always lead the league in runs scored….
you get people on base more often, you will score more often.
think of it like this, outs are the currency of baseball and runs are what you buy with them, the fewer outs spent per run scored results in more run chances and thus, more runs.
jeffrey d
July 2nd, 2012
4:48 pm
And speaking of blogisms, I’m disappointed that bear writers didn’t get more attention
phil
July 2nd, 2012
4:48 pm
If we lose tonight, it’s not the Monday thing but the heat’s fault….
Or FG….take your pick.
ncscoots
July 2nd, 2012
4:48 pm
nolie would have raked those Wright brothers over the coals.
Dudes couldn’t hit a lick. No range, either.
Karl Hungus
July 2nd, 2012
4:48 pm
Good call scoots. BABIP is helpful when looked at along with batted ball profile. McCann’s LD% is steadily decreasing (24% in early May, 17% now) while his GB% is steadily increasing (35% in early May, 40% now). Making weaker contact won’t help his BABIP (and in turn BA/SLG), and luck is having less to do with it now. I wasn’t worried in early May, but I am now.
Arkansas Transplant
July 2nd, 2012
4:49 pm
Murph, I’m going to kind of be in your neck of the woods next week. Heading to Richardson for some training.
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
4:49 pm
ncscoots
sigh……….. no, that’s what the entire stat describes, this is why it exists, that’s like saying batting avg describes how often someone got a hit relative to their AB’s , but only to me… no, that’s what batting avg is
jeffrey d
July 2nd, 2012
4:49 pm
Or FG….take your pick.
I’ll be going with Liberty Media tonight.
Efrim
July 2nd, 2012
4:49 pm
Remember when BuffaloBravesFan, not sure if he is around anymore, said Zach Parise was better than Sidney Crosby? That is as wrong as wrong can be.
Just throwing that out there, as we await Parise’s 2012-2013 team to be announced.
Ralph
July 2nd, 2012
4:49 pm
Delgado will be our best pitcher in 2013, wait and see!
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
4:50 pm
Karl
ichiro made weaker contact than anybody, yet his babip wasn’t hurt by it
Arkansas Transplant
July 2nd, 2012
4:50 pm
Sopheee, thanks… yes jeffrey d
Shaun
July 2nd, 2012
4:50 pm
I think baseball offense is all about RBIs
I agree with this. It’s just too bad that many think the individual players that get credit in the RBI column are necessarily the players who deserve most of the credit for creating runs.
Just like I think it’s all about wins. But individual pitchers that get the credit in their own win columns aren’t necessarily the pitcher who deserve most of the credit for team wins. And pitchers who don’t get much credit in their own win columns aren’t necessarily the ones costing their teams.
Tradition has fooled many in to thinking individual hitters’ RBI and individual pitcher’s wins are not team statistics.
Murph
July 2nd, 2012
4:50 pm
AT, I have no idea what the rotation would look like next season. Seems the only guys we can count on being there are Hudson and Hanson. Wouldn’t surprise me at all to see JJ, Minor, or Delgado sent packing… maybe even more than one of them.
I’m having a really hard time defending Delgado these days. Still like him, but he’s so up and down… I don’t know how you can pencil him in for an entire season at this point.
Efrim
July 2nd, 2012
4:51 pm
Guys on 680 The Fan seem to think the rotation will look very different come July 31st, they said:
If we listen to all the rumors, it’d be shocking if all three of Teheran, Delgado and Minor were with the organization on 8/1/12.
Murph
July 2nd, 2012
4:52 pm
AT, if you find your way down to Austin shoot me a message on FB.
Efrim
July 2nd, 2012
4:52 pm
Delgado will be our best pitcher in 2013, wait and see!
Boy, that walk rate is going to have to come down for that to happen. Breaking ball is going to have to improve too.
Karl Hungus
July 2nd, 2012
4:52 pm
NickB
Acutally, BABIP is more useful in evaluating luck as a stat for pitchers. For batters, you can tie it to batted ball profile.
phil
July 2nd, 2012
4:53 pm
My prayer for this moment….
Lord, please deliver us from people who over analyze this great game you created for us to enjoy and sometimes not enjoy. We all know that if our team gets lots of runners on base, we have a good chance to then win the game. We all know that if our team doesn’t get many runners on base, and I include Mac in this category of “runners”, we have a decent chance to lose the game. In spite of this, some feel compelled to constantly say things about RISP and so forth that make us want to claw our eyes out and scream and maybe even jump from very high windows. Please make them stop or cause DOB to ban them from his terrific blog so that we aren’t compelled to harm our vision.
Amen
ncbravesfan90
July 2nd, 2012
4:54 pm
“If we listen to all the rumors, it’d be shocking if all three of Teheran, Delgado and Minor were with the organization on 8/1/12.”
I don’t think all three will be with the organization come August 1st.
Speedy Gonzalez
July 2nd, 2012
4:54 pm
We need another RH bat, not 2 more pitchers, if needed Medlen can start, get a bat in LF please Frank!
jeffrey d
July 2nd, 2012
4:54 pm
I’m going way out on a limb and predicting our stretch-run rotation will look like
1) Latos
2) Beckett
3) Medlen
4) Hamels
5) Medlen again
Karl Hungus
July 2nd, 2012
4:54 pm
NickB
Plus speed, which is a skill Ichiro has, is one of the factors that can affect BABIP besides quality of contact. Same reason Jose Constanza gets a lot of hits.
Shaun
July 2nd, 2012
4:55 pm
NickB, I like the way writer Steve Goldman puts it: outs are like baseball’s clock. A hitter who cost hit team outs (a hitter without on-base skills) is like a football player who takes time off the clock for his team. Players without on-base skills are just speeding your team toward the ends of innings, without opportunities to score, and to the ends of games. It’s helpful to think in those terms, if you really don’t think OBP is vitally important for all hitters, regardless of where they hit in the batting order.
Rafael
July 2nd, 2012
4:56 pm
The Braves are NOT going to trade for any hitters because Liberty CHEAPIA and Frank Wren LOVE Matt Diaz… “he rakes lefthanders you know” and he is “AFFORDABLE” (Wren’s favorite term in Webster’s Dictionary).
Matt Diaz is Freidi’s nephew and “he manages to keep his sense of humor when the Brave’s lose.”
Fish Bisch
July 2nd, 2012
4:56 pm
Smearedjizzum owns us
TheOnlyBravesFan
July 2nd, 2012
4:56 pm
Kevin McAlpin @KevinMcAlpin
#Cubs starter Jeff Samardzija’s month of June: 0-4, 10.41 ERA. He allowed 27 runs on 33 hits in 23.1 IP
We better beat this guy up…..
Sopheee
July 2nd, 2012
4:56 pm
Two Medlelelelens? Sweet.
Bat Masterson
July 2nd, 2012
4:56 pm
ummm, that’s what it describes………. babip IS the % of luck on balls in play,
Yeah, I think I heard Heyward was unlucky in that regard quite a few times last year. Of course, if you watched him hit you, might be excused for thinking him damned lucky any fell for hits.
NickB
July 2nd, 2012
4:56 pm
i disagree, as there are plenty of evidence to support a skyrocketed babip to career years in batters and a remarkably low babip to their down year. a consistent pattern of downward babip can point to a hitters decline, but a drop of over 60 points is due to bad luck, unless it’s accompanied with an increase in K% and a drop in BB%
ncscoots
July 2nd, 2012
4:56 pm
sigh……….. no, that’s what the entire stat describes
Nick, do me a favor. If you want to condescend to me, personally, you’re going to have to come up with something that I didn’t know twenty years before you found a Bill James Handbook in the bargain bin. I know there is a tendency for some folks to think that no one else has ever actually read the same material that has caused the scales to fall from one’s own eyes, and, thus, a certain brilliance has escaped the less fortunate, but I can assure you that I am not one of them.
TennesseePaul
July 2nd, 2012
4:57 pm
I’ll usually give a thread one post, max, and then just ignore the rest…
A reasonable expectation.
Arkansas Transplant
July 2nd, 2012
4:57 pm
if you find your way down to Austin shoot me a message
Will do.
Sopheee
July 2nd, 2012
4:57 pm
Mondays still own us more, Fish.
bravesgrl4life
July 2nd, 2012
4:57 pm
Okay, Braves, lets kick some Cubs butt through this series so I can tease my boss about it. He’s talking about going tomorrow.
jeffrey d
July 2nd, 2012
4:57 pm
Is Kris a yodeler now?