With all due respect, its my opinion that batting average and Ks should matter much more than they do. Last night, had we had a better average guy that doesn’t strike so dang much in Ugglas spot we may have won a game
Vargas is about what we could expect from Minor in a couple of yrs.
Minor’s W-L record should be better because he is pitching on a better team, and he has more K potential.
Not completely turned off, but Vargas would be better than nothing. Minor has to be sent down for now, not giving up on him yet, but I do not trust him down this stretch.
I would offer a marginal underachieving prospect like Salcedo for him. That should be a reasonable offer. Good trade for both teams.
Your 6:12pm post explains it all. It’s all about average and no K’s.
Now it will be much easier to blow right past all your future posts, since you are not really a serious baseball fan and I don’t need to waste any more of my time reading your drivel.
Hugo, I agree with you. The real sad thing is that we pitched Ventors to death last year before he could ever get a big payday! He was as lights out as anyone has ever been unfortunately I’m afraid he’ll never be that way again. Down 4 to 5 mph which has made the movement look nothing like before.
Hmmmm, with Jack in the lineup, I really have to question Uggs getting a day off, I still feel with him in the lineup, we have a better chance to win over worthless Wilson.. What do you guys think?
How many hits does Bryce get tonight ?? I would ask him myself but…. well, you know how he feels about me asking questions… he is a bit cold to us in my profession
RBI’s are the product of a team’s collective OBP ability not an individual hitter’s production
WAR works because it compares all players it each position to each other, is it perfect? no, but no stat is perfect, but if you need one easy number to compare all say 2nd basemen to each other, WAR works
Bobby used to be so structured with his lineups. It’d take an act of Congress to get him to alter the lineup (short of resting the catcher).
It was refreshing when Fredi came in and wouldn’t hesitate to change things up a bit. But sometimes I long for the days of Bobby’s stability. Fredi takes the tweaking to the nth degree sometimes.
It makes it look like he really doesn’t know much about what he is doing from game to game. I really have my doubts.
this article points out he is down ONE MPH on all his pitches, not 3 or 4 as Mark stated above, yet his FIP (fielding independent pitching) is pretty much the same as it always was, it appears that his high BABIP is a result of unlucky results on ball in play (which is a regression from his extremely lucky results on balls in play the prior two years)
After doing some research on the Harper/clown music tweet from the stadium organist, here is the deal. Harper was previously asked a question by a reporter, after which Harper responded “that’s a clown question.” A Denver brewery thought that comment was funny and named a beer after that quote. Harper then heard about a Denver policewoman (who was a single mother) that was recently killed. Harper suggested donating $ from the sale of the “clown” beer to a fund for the young daughter of the slain cop, which the brewery agreed to do. Not bad for a 19 year old.
I do not like the WAR stat & find it ficticious. Wins above replacement of what?????? What is that AAA or AAAA player who is replacable and as a fan, no one cares to compute it.
RBI’s are and are not a team stat. When a player gets a clutch hit with a couple men on base, you have 2 runs and 2 RBI. The team is helped.
I do get that OPB and OPS have importance, but to look at RBI;s as meaningless I cannot see it.
And I do think that the double is a stat that is underappreciated. Get a double with none out, you have a man in immediate scoring position.
WAR, VORP, FIP, BAIP, cannot really see the value in it. Of course I do not want to get that deep into it.
I do like the value of some advanced stats that are looked at but a system that rated Dave Kingman as a better player than Joe Carter, (WAR) that has weaknesses.
Being a fan is about having fun with the game and computing WAR is not fun for me. Most of the best players are going to have a high WAR anyway. A WAR of 2 is supposed to be good. I cannot see how Freddie Freeman had a 1.9 WAR last yr. Made no sense.
Couldn’t we wait for tomorrow to send Harper a message? I won’t care when he runs out and pounds on Mike Minor, but I’d rather not have him beat up Delgado.
He was not consistently 97, he was consistently 95 on his sinker….. the article got it’s numbers from pitch f/x who uses data from every game in baseball to create it’s pitch f/x charts………
so you are sayin that MLB is wrong on all of it’s data , and you are right from what you remember?
lol, no I just understand the game better than you do and you have no evidence to back up your assertions, therefor you are responding with demeaning quips, learn the new stats, learn how to calculate value in a player, get out of the middle ages
this article points out he is down ONE MPH on all his pitches, not 3 or 4 as Mark stated above, yet his FIP (fielding independent pitching) is pretty much the same as it always was, it appears that his high BABIP is a result of unlucky results on ball in play (which is a regression from his extremely lucky results on balls in play the prior two years)
That article gives me hope on Johnny for next yr Nick B. In essence, hold on to him but for now I don;t know what Fredi can do with him right now. You cannot DL him, cannot really send him down, could put him in middle relief low impact situations, but its a quandry and a tough call for Fredi.
Hope he gets it back in ‘13. Maybe a better second half, hope so.
I would like to know what it is specifically that Bryce doesn’t like about my people.. I mean Maybe he was touched “down under” in the playground area at McDonalds by RONALD, or maybe a b day party as a child went sour in a hurry after one of my colleagues asked him just how “tender” he wanted his steak while squeezing his thigh .. these are the questions that need answers DOB!
the reason Kingman has a higher WAR than Carter is that Carter had some really bad last 4 years that gave him negative WAR, if you look at their 10 prime years, Carter was much better, Kingman just ended his career a little better is all.
I will let the formulas compute WAR, but WAR in of itself does not tell the whole story.
If a guy is hitting 35 bombs, 35 doubles and has 110 RBI’s and has a low WAR, he cannot be useless.
Some guys do not walk alot so the modern day stats will short change that particular player.
One area I can see advances stats being looked at is at non-close relief pitchers. ERA’s and W-L do not mean much for relief pitchers. Have to look at other things.
Once again thanks for that link onVenters, I have hope now.
as far as Freeman is concerned, due to the high level of offense from first basemen, it’s ALWAYS going to be harder for Freeman to post 2 WAR than say Uggla, or a SS, just because the overall level of play is lower at those positions, remember WAR is weighted by position, so Freeman’s numbers are compared to Pujols and Fielder, and Votto …etc Uggla is compared to Weeks and Hill and Infante and a bunch of really mediocre players at 2B
Concerning Venters, unless he is hurt (and they swear he isn’t) you just keep running him out there. I’d love to see FW call our buddy Billy Wagner to come down to ATL just for a visit for a week or so.
Just to sit down and talk with the players about their game.
it would be impossible for a guy to hit 35 HR’s, 35 doubles and have a bad WAR, not even Adam Dunn and his butcher meat hook for a glove managed to do that
like you said ERA is pointless cuz if you come in and give up a double with the bases loaded ,those runs go to the pitcher who put them there, (not to mention one really bad appearance can ruin a years ERA since relievers don’t pitch that many innings)
I like a guy who doesn’t walk too many, K’s a bunch and doesn’t let runners he inherits score, now there are exceptions, guys like Kimbrel and Venter’s can often get away with walk cuz their K % is so ungodly, but they are rare
it appears that his high BABIP is a result of unlucky results on ball in play (which is a regression from his extremely lucky results on balls in play the prior two years)
I’m not anti-stat, but this kind of comment gets to me… his BABIP is high not because he’s unlucky; his BABIP is high because batters are hitting the ball harder against him. His line drive rate is way up; and his % of flyballs that are home runs is way up.
He still gets his strikeouts, and doesn’t walk many more than he did before. But batters are teeing off on him when they make contact.
I enjoy stats, but I think the sabres go too far in assuming that if a pitcher is striking guys out and not walking batters, he is automatically pitching well (why I can’t quite buy into FIP).
Oh, hell i don’t calculate WAR, I let fangraphs handle that crap, but I use it a a quick reference number to gauge two players who play the same position, or to refute the idea that “PLAYER A SUCKS CUZ HIS BATTING AVG IS .250…”
Do you agree that Freeman’s got value that is higher than his WAR shows.
I think so, and if he were healthy he would be a 25 HR and 95 to 100 RBI guy this yr in his second yr.
As for a 110 RBI who had a bad WAR, an example of that was Batista (Tony or Jose) for Montreal in 2004. He had 33 HR and 110 RBI but had a .241 AVG and .272 OBP that yr.
The second highest RBI guy was in the 60’s on that team.
all evidence points to pitcher’s who give up flyballs not having much control over how many go out for HR’s….
I think it would be impossible for Venter’s to have so many ground balls yet for his BABIP to stay as low as it was though, heck, Maddux had a year where he gave up the most hits in the league. Bad luck on balls in play DOES happen
So given that the median win total for the wild card has pretty consistently been at or around 90, what odds do we give the Braves of going 50-27 the rest of the way?
I’d say about 1%.
Wouldn’t it be nice if there was one supposed “schock jock” in this town who would ask that question?
They always seem to like interviewing Fredi Gonzalez and Frank Wren on 680 after we’ve managed to pull off a mini win streak
I wonder if that’s a coincidence.
Not likely to ever hear pointed questions directed at Frank Wren in the midst of an eight game losing streak.
It seems like a pretty obvious question though. I mean, it’s not like we’re going to win the division. That’s pretty much off the table at this point.
I just would be curious to know what Fredi or Chipper or Huddy’s answer would be to the question, “Is this team capable of going 50-27 the rest of the way? What about 47-30? What really makes the Nationals any better than the Braves?”
I don’t know if I’m Chipper Jones, in my final season, how I could stand to see a the Nationals win this division after being a doormat for more than a decade.
Honestly, I’d rather see the Phillies come back and win it than the Nats.
No, I don’t think Freeman was better than a 2 WAR last year, his lack of range at first base hurt him (and scoops aren’t enough to offset that )
this year, his range has improved and he’s almost worth the same this year as all of last year, just do to defensive improvements.
Like I said, first base is the most talent loaded position in the game, it’s really hard to be one of the top 5 over there, you gotta be Pujols, Votto ,Fielder, Tex good .
“Oh, hell i don’t calculate WAR, I let fangraphs handle that crap, but I use it a a quick reference number to gauge two players who play the same position, or to refute the idea that “PLAYER A SUCKS CUZ HIS BATTING AVG IS .250…””
Well Nick, I cannot argue with that. Hey, there were seasons that Cal Ripken and Brooks Robinson hit in the .250’s and had real value to the team.
Brooks Robinson hit .234 for the 69 Orioles but given his defense, power and clutch hitting over the course of that yr, anyone who watched him would be a fool to say he did not have real value. Those 1969 to 71 Orioles teams should have had 3 WS champs, but it was not to be. Got one instead.
Nick, his line drive % is at 23%, up from 10 and 14 in previous years. Is it not reasonable to think that his BABIP has gone up not because of luck, but because hitters are hitting line drives where they used to hit ground balls or fly balls?
His GO/AO is about the same, but his GB/FB ratio again is way down….
Harper deserves to be thrown at for grabbing Simmons’ ankle and I wouldn’t mind seeing Jose Reyes squirming in the dirt after the DP when he hit Freddie. Yes, it’s Freddie’s responsibility to get down but Reyes arm action was parallel to the ground which is the only reason Freddie got hit.
Failure to come through in the big moments has been in the Braves’ DNA since 1996, and I’m not sure how you go about fixing that. We’ve changed players and hitting coaches, but nothing seems to rectify the problem. This team consistently hits worse in the clutch than they do in normal situations.
Past history can weigh on your mind. That’s how Boston can go 86 years without winning a World Series. Maybe the Braves’ hitters are too cerebral. Maybe we need some guys like the ‘04 Red Sox had who are too dumb to know or care about our legacy of failure in the big moments.
IMO, what the team needs is time, lots of kids in the field, lots of kids on the staff. It’s remarkable such a young team can even conjur up an over .500 record. Historically, this just doesn’t happen that often.
I love this time of baseball season, All Star Game approaches, trade talks start up, start to hit the dog days of summer and teams start to see what they really are.
I love this time of baseball season, All Star Game approaches, trade talks start up, start to hit the dog days of summer and teams start to see what they really are.
Trade rumors are my favorite part of the season…. Live for this.
“Do you have facts to back up that claim? Just wondering?”
Sure. Six straight postseason series losses. Worst September collapse in NL history last year. Near collapse in 2010. Eight straight World Series losses.
Those numbers don’t directly relate to the offense, but those of us who were around to remember those games know it’s usually been the bats that haven’t come through in the big moments.
I’m usually not even one who pays much mind to “clutch” hitting. I think clutch is an often-overused buzzword. But the Braves’ have such a substantial body of work when it comes to failure in the clutch that it’s almost impossible to ignore.
love to hear that the braves have the flexibility to do the big trade. Greinke, Hamels or bust
I don’t think the Phillies would trade Hamels within the division… or that the Braves would give the Phillies the prospects it would take to land Hamels.
Teheran might be having a down year, but he’ll figure it all out… and I don’t want to have to face him 5 or 6 times a year after he does.
Ha Ha!! I predicted three things from this series and one of them already has happened. I knew Fredi would mess with the lineup. My other two predictions…
2. Braves lose 2 of 3 to Nats.
3. Some bloggers will continue to post the season is early.
Like I said, first base is the most talent loaded position in the game, it’s really hard to be one of the top 5 over there, you gotta be Pujols, Votto ,Fielder, Tex good .
Frank will lead you down that road of the Greinke’s and the Dempster’s, but has his sights set on that swift lefty of the M’s. His 21 homeruns given up and all.
3,179 comments Add your comment
Yogi Berra
June 29th, 2012
6:02 pm
sorry again “The onlybraves fan”…I give up!
David O'Brien
June 29th, 2012
6:04 pm
Uggla went 4-for-5 w/ 2 HRs, 5 RBI on 6/5 at Miami; since then he’s 7-for-65 w/ 1 HR, 5 RBIs in 20 games.
Yogi Berra
June 29th, 2012
6:05 pm
thanks DOB..wow…he needs a rest.
Mark
June 29th, 2012
6:05 pm
OK. I was wrong on the money. The point was he makes too damn much!
stew
June 29th, 2012
6:06 pm
Why sit Uggla and Prado for Wilson and Diaz? Let them sit during the next series. We better win 2 games. We’re the home team.
TheOnlyBravesFan
June 29th, 2012
6:07 pm
it’s ok Yogi…
Mark: He might make too much, but he’s still better than Infante. Batting average alone doesn’t tell the whole story.
Uggla’s needed a rest for a while now….
Hugo Z Hackenbush
June 29th, 2012
6:08 pm
Why is it that the people who complain that someone like Uggla makes too much, never complain that someone like Craig Kimbrel makes too little?
TheOnlyBravesFan
June 29th, 2012
6:10 pm
^^^^ @ Hugo: This.
NickB
June 29th, 2012
6:10 pm
Mark
Uggla -OBP .364
Unfante OBP- .313
Uggla career numbers:.257/.344/.477 avg almost 4 WAR per season
Infanter career numbers :.276/.318/.398 with an avg of 1.8 WAR per season
heck the only time Infante’s WAR beat Uggla’s was last season when Infante had a career best year at 2.7 and Uggla had a career worst year at 2.5
NickB
June 29th, 2012
6:12 pm
Hugo
wel that’s the real trick isn’t it? Player values need to be viewed over the lifetime of their time with each individual team relative to their pay.
Mark
June 29th, 2012
6:12 pm
With all due respect, its my opinion that batting average and Ks should matter much more than they do. Last night, had we had a better average guy that doesn’t strike so dang much in Ugglas spot we may have won a game
Disgusted
June 29th, 2012
6:13 pm
Vargas is about what we could expect from Minor in a couple of yrs.
Minor’s W-L record should be better because he is pitching on a better team, and he has more K potential.
Not completely turned off, but Vargas would be better than nothing. Minor has to be sent down for now, not giving up on him yet, but I do not trust him down this stretch.
I would offer a marginal underachieving prospect like Salcedo for him. That should be a reasonable offer. Good trade for both teams.
VaBravesFan
June 29th, 2012
6:13 pm
OBP is king.
DS1
June 29th, 2012
6:15 pm
Mark
Your 6:12pm post explains it all. It’s all about average and no K’s.
Now it will be much easier to blow right past all your future posts, since you are not really a serious baseball fan and I don’t need to waste any more of my time reading your drivel.
Mark
June 29th, 2012
6:16 pm
Hugo, I agree with you. The real sad thing is that we pitched Ventors to death last year before he could ever get a big payday! He was as lights out as anyone has ever been unfortunately I’m afraid he’ll never be that way again. Down 4 to 5 mph which has made the movement look nothing like before.
DS1
June 29th, 2012
6:17 pm
Disgusted
I think we’ll see 1-2 more starts from Delgado and Minor before any decision is made on another pitcher.
Keep saying: This is NOT the SEC. This is NOT the SEC.
Bozo ( The Clown )
June 29th, 2012
6:17 pm
Hmmmm, with Jack in the lineup, I really have to question Uggs getting a day off, I still feel with him in the lineup, we have a better chance to win over worthless Wilson.. What do you guys think?
Disgusted
June 29th, 2012
6:17 pm
Uggla is better than Infante but he is so darned streaky.
When Uggla is slumping, he slumps beyone bad.
When he gets hot he can carry a team.
And I am one of those who does not care much about WAR. I look at production stats like HRS, Doubles, RBI’s BA, OPB, & to some degree OPB and RC.
Screw WAR. Its production tht counts.
Bozo ( The Clown )
June 29th, 2012
6:18 pm
Over/Under 3 runs scored by our braves today, your thoughts blog?
Disgusted
June 29th, 2012
6:19 pm
I get it DS1 & I know this is not college football.
Speaking of the SEC, how about Crowell messing up again, this time this kid is in real trouble.
What a cement head. How much longer can Coach Richt put up with his #$@#
Mark
June 29th, 2012
6:19 pm
DS1
If you only knew?
NickB
June 29th, 2012
6:19 pm
and in a bajillion other games had we not had guy who can hit for power hitting in Uggla’s spot we would have lost those games….
sample size, it’s your friend
Bozo ( The Clown )
June 29th, 2012
6:19 pm
How many hits does Bryce get tonight ?? I would ask him myself but…. well, you know how he feels about me asking questions… he is a bit cold to us in my profession
NickB
June 29th, 2012
6:21 pm
Disgusted
RBI’s are the product of a team’s collective OBP ability not an individual hitter’s production
WAR works because it compares all players it each position to each other, is it perfect? no, but no stat is perfect, but if you need one easy number to compare all say 2nd basemen to each other, WAR works
Disgusted
June 29th, 2012
6:21 pm
.
“Why is it that the people who complain that someone like Uggla makes too much, never complain that someone like Craig Kimbrel makes too little?”
Good question. If Kimbrell hangs around and if effective long enough he will get his $$$$$$$$$ and should.
I do not think Uggla is overpaid in spite of his frustrating streakiness. We know what he can do when he is on.
VaBravesFan
June 29th, 2012
6:24 pm
Bryce Harper vs Jason Heyward. Threw there 1st 54 games of there MLB career.
Heyward 266/396/511/906 10 HR 39 RBI 10 2B
Harper 282/357/493/850 8 HR 22 RBI 12 2B
DS1
June 29th, 2012
6:25 pm
Bobby used to be so structured with his lineups. It’d take an act of Congress to get him to alter the lineup (short of resting the catcher).
It was refreshing when Fredi came in and wouldn’t hesitate to change things up a bit. But sometimes I long for the days of Bobby’s stability. Fredi takes the tweaking to the nth degree sometimes.
It makes it look like he really doesn’t know much about what he is doing from game to game. I really have my doubts.
NickB
June 29th, 2012
6:26 pm
Venter’s called strike zone between 2011 and 2012 , kinda looks like he may be gettign squeezed a bit more
http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=6809
this article points out he is down ONE MPH on all his pitches, not 3 or 4 as Mark stated above, yet his FIP (fielding independent pitching) is pretty much the same as it always was, it appears that his high BABIP is a result of unlucky results on ball in play (which is a regression from his extremely lucky results on balls in play the prior two years)
Fred (not the one who posted earlier today)
June 29th, 2012
6:26 pm
After doing some research on the Harper/clown music tweet from the stadium organist, here is the deal. Harper was previously asked a question by a reporter, after which Harper responded “that’s a clown question.” A Denver brewery thought that comment was funny and named a beer after that quote. Harper then heard about a Denver policewoman (who was a single mother) that was recently killed. Harper suggested donating $ from the sale of the “clown” beer to a fund for the young daughter of the slain cop, which the brewery agreed to do. Not bad for a 19 year old.
Mark
June 29th, 2012
6:26 pm
Infante doesn’t walk. Thats why his OBP isn’t as good but he doesn’t K all the damn time with runners on and he is hitting .288.
I’ll just hold on and hope Ugglas 3 or 4 week yearly streak helps us overcome all the Ks the rest of the year and .235 average through 70 or so games.
NickB
June 29th, 2012
6:26 pm
oops, here is the second article I forgot to link
http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=6806
Braveone
June 29th, 2012
6:26 pm
From the previous blog which had 1,543 comments, phil led the way with 92 posts. There were 143 different poster names. Here are the Top 25:
Rank Poster Frequency
1 phil 92
2 nolie 74
3 Efrim 73
4 MFin04 54
5 Ease 45
6 (Rob from SC) 42
7 Capt.Mudd 42
8 The A Bomb 41
9 bravesgrl4life 41
10 TheOnlyBravesFan 40
11 Bat Masterson 39
12 DS1 39
13 gene garbage 39
14 ChattTownBrian 37
15 Tomahawk Mafia 33
16 jeffrey d 32
17 David O’Brien 27
18 ncscoots 26
19 Disgusted 24
20 Dumbfounded again…… 24
21 Lew 24
22 Tomahawkin 24
23 Ward 24
24 TennesseePaul 23
25 McFann :Ô: :Ô: :ô: 21
DS1
June 29th, 2012
6:27 pm
As Bat mentioned earlier, Harper is due for a little chin music after his antics of grabbing at Simmons leg on that slide……………
Let’s hope somebody cue’s RD to what needs to be done.
Mark
June 29th, 2012
6:28 pm
The article is wrong then Nick. Damn, have you watched the games? He was consistently 97 last year. Rarely 94 now.
NickB
June 29th, 2012
6:29 pm
not walking is bad Mark, it means more outs, and a strikeout isn’t that bad for a hitter who walks, it’s bad for hitters that don’t walk though
Mike
June 29th, 2012
6:30 pm
Well, the manager the Braves should have hired is in town tonight. Let’s see how his team matches up against fredi’s team.
Disgusted
June 29th, 2012
6:30 pm
NickB
I do not like the WAR stat & find it ficticious. Wins above replacement of what?????? What is that AAA or AAAA player who is replacable and as a fan, no one cares to compute it.
RBI’s are and are not a team stat. When a player gets a clutch hit with a couple men on base, you have 2 runs and 2 RBI. The team is helped.
I do get that OPB and OPS have importance, but to look at RBI;s as meaningless I cannot see it.
And I do think that the double is a stat that is underappreciated. Get a double with none out, you have a man in immediate scoring position.
WAR, VORP, FIP, BAIP, cannot really see the value in it. Of course I do not want to get that deep into it.
I do like the value of some advanced stats that are looked at but a system that rated Dave Kingman as a better player than Joe Carter, (WAR) that has weaknesses.
Being a fan is about having fun with the game and computing WAR is not fun for me. Most of the best players are going to have a high WAR anyway. A WAR of 2 is supposed to be good. I cannot see how Freddie Freeman had a 1.9 WAR last yr. Made no sense.
Murph
June 29th, 2012
6:30 pm
Couldn’t we wait for tomorrow to send Harper a message? I won’t care when he runs out and pounds on Mike Minor, but I’d rather not have him beat up Delgado.
NickB
June 29th, 2012
6:30 pm
He was not consistently 97, he was consistently 95 on his sinker….. the article got it’s numbers from pitch f/x who uses data from every game in baseball to create it’s pitch f/x charts………
so you are sayin that MLB is wrong on all of it’s data , and you are right from what you remember?
Mitchell
June 29th, 2012
6:31 pm
The Diamondbacks made two errors last night?
Why am I not surprised?
Disgusted
June 29th, 2012
6:31 pm
And I got back into the top 25. WEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mark
June 29th, 2012
6:31 pm
Nick you’re an idiot and I’m more of an idiot for trying to argue with you.
NickB
June 29th, 2012
6:32 pm
disgusted
maybe if you took the time to understand how the stat WAR is calculated you wouldn’t be afraid of it…
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/
DS1
June 29th, 2012
6:33 pm
Mitchell
Unfortunately, you’re probably going to tell us. And tell us again, and again and again.
NickB
June 29th, 2012
6:34 pm
Mark
lol, no I just understand the game better than you do and you have no evidence to back up your assertions, therefor you are responding with demeaning quips, learn the new stats, learn how to calculate value in a player, get out of the middle ages
Disgusted
June 29th, 2012
6:34 pm
this article points out he is down ONE MPH on all his pitches, not 3 or 4 as Mark stated above, yet his FIP (fielding independent pitching) is pretty much the same as it always was, it appears that his high BABIP is a result of unlucky results on ball in play (which is a regression from his extremely lucky results on balls in play the prior two years)
That article gives me hope on Johnny for next yr Nick B. In essence, hold on to him but for now I don;t know what Fredi can do with him right now. You cannot DL him, cannot really send him down, could put him in middle relief low impact situations, but its a quandry and a tough call for Fredi.
Hope he gets it back in ‘13. Maybe a better second half, hope so.
Bozo ( The Clown )
June 29th, 2012
6:37 pm
I would like to know what it is specifically that Bryce doesn’t like about my people.. I mean Maybe he was touched “down under” in the playground area at McDonalds by RONALD, or maybe a b day party as a child went sour in a hurry after one of my colleagues asked him just how “tender” he wanted his steak while squeezing his thigh .. these are the questions that need answers DOB!
NickB
June 29th, 2012
6:37 pm
Disgusted
the reason Kingman has a higher WAR than Carter is that Carter had some really bad last 4 years that gave him negative WAR, if you look at their 10 prime years, Carter was much better, Kingman just ended his career a little better is all.
Mark
June 29th, 2012
6:37 pm
Nick, you must be like the fat guy off MoneyBall with all your stats. Uggla would not have fit into their stats and money paid though…
Disgusted
June 29th, 2012
6:39 pm
I will let the formulas compute WAR, but WAR in of itself does not tell the whole story.
If a guy is hitting 35 bombs, 35 doubles and has 110 RBI’s and has a low WAR, he cannot be useless.
Some guys do not walk alot so the modern day stats will short change that particular player.
One area I can see advances stats being looked at is at non-close relief pitchers. ERA’s and W-L do not mean much for relief pitchers. Have to look at other things.
Once again thanks for that link onVenters, I have hope now.
NickB
June 29th, 2012
6:40 pm
Disgusted
as far as Freeman is concerned, due to the high level of offense from first basemen, it’s ALWAYS going to be harder for Freeman to post 2 WAR than say Uggla, or a SS, just because the overall level of play is lower at those positions, remember WAR is weighted by position, so Freeman’s numbers are compared to Pujols and Fielder, and Votto …etc Uggla is compared to Weeks and Hill and Infante and a bunch of really mediocre players at 2B
DS1
June 29th, 2012
6:40 pm
Disgusted
Concerning Venters, unless he is hurt (and they swear he isn’t) you just keep running him out there. I’d love to see FW call our buddy Billy Wagner to come down to ATL just for a visit for a week or so.
Just to sit down and talk with the players about their game.
NickB
June 29th, 2012
6:41 pm
disgusted
it would be impossible for a guy to hit 35 HR’s, 35 doubles and have a bad WAR, not even Adam Dunn and his butcher meat hook for a glove managed to do that
Disgusted
June 29th, 2012
6:42 pm
I will take another look on basseball refernece on Kingman vs Carter, but that is very fair Nick.
Hey, we can agree to disagree. Hey, I can compute the other stats but have to depend on Fan Graphs to compute WAR, BAIP, VORP and the other stuff.
Info overload. Good for execs who are well paid, lots of info for a paying fan
DS1
June 29th, 2012
6:43 pm
Disgusted
A player with that many bombs and doubles is not going to have a low WAR.
The main thing I don’t like about war is all the people that suffer because of it. (little blog humor)
DS1
June 29th, 2012
6:44 pm
War
What is it good for? Absolutely nothing. Say it again ya’ll…………
NickB
June 29th, 2012
6:44 pm
I have always looked at 3 stats for relievers:
BB% ,K% and inherited runners scored
like you said ERA is pointless cuz if you come in and give up a double with the bases loaded ,those runs go to the pitcher who put them there, (not to mention one really bad appearance can ruin a years ERA since relievers don’t pitch that many innings)
I like a guy who doesn’t walk too many, K’s a bunch and doesn’t let runners he inherits score, now there are exceptions, guys like Kimbrel and Venter’s can often get away with walk cuz their K % is so ungodly, but they are rare
MikeInFl
June 29th, 2012
6:44 pm
it appears that his high BABIP is a result of unlucky results on ball in play (which is a regression from his extremely lucky results on balls in play the prior two years)
I’m not anti-stat, but this kind of comment gets to me… his BABIP is high not because he’s unlucky; his BABIP is high because batters are hitting the ball harder against him. His line drive rate is way up; and his % of flyballs that are home runs is way up.
He still gets his strikeouts, and doesn’t walk many more than he did before. But batters are teeing off on him when they make contact.
I enjoy stats, but I think the sabres go too far in assuming that if a pitcher is striking guys out and not walking batters, he is automatically pitching well (why I can’t quite buy into FIP).
NickB
June 29th, 2012
6:45 pm
Oh, hell i don’t calculate WAR, I let fangraphs handle that crap, but I use it a a quick reference number to gauge two players who play the same position, or to refute the idea that “PLAYER A SUCKS CUZ HIS BATTING AVG IS .250…”
Dadgum.......
June 29th, 2012
6:47 pm
When you are playing your division rival and leader, you don’t rest anybody unless they are injured! Period. End of discussion.
Also the Braves need to be looking for a #1 starter not a rental and be willing to pay the piper. To me that is Greinke.
Disgusted
June 29th, 2012
6:47 pm
Do you agree that Freeman’s got value that is higher than his WAR shows.
I think so, and if he were healthy he would be a 25 HR and 95 to 100 RBI guy this yr in his second yr.
As for a 110 RBI who had a bad WAR, an example of that was Batista (Tony or Jose) for Montreal in 2004. He had 33 HR and 110 RBI but had a .241 AVG and .272 OBP that yr.
The second highest RBI guy was in the 60’s on that team.
NickB
June 29th, 2012
6:47 pm
MikeinFl
all evidence points to pitcher’s who give up flyballs not having much control over how many go out for HR’s….
I think it would be impossible for Venter’s to have so many ground balls yet for his BABIP to stay as low as it was though, heck, Maddux had a year where he gave up the most hits in the league. Bad luck on balls in play DOES happen
Mitchell
June 29th, 2012
6:49 pm
So given that the median win total for the wild card has pretty consistently been at or around 90, what odds do we give the Braves of going 50-27 the rest of the way?
I’d say about 1%.
Wouldn’t it be nice if there was one supposed “schock jock” in this town who would ask that question?
They always seem to like interviewing Fredi Gonzalez and Frank Wren on 680 after we’ve managed to pull off a mini win streak
I wonder if that’s a coincidence.
Not likely to ever hear pointed questions directed at Frank Wren in the midst of an eight game losing streak.
It seems like a pretty obvious question though. I mean, it’s not like we’re going to win the division. That’s pretty much off the table at this point.
I just would be curious to know what Fredi or Chipper or Huddy’s answer would be to the question, “Is this team capable of going 50-27 the rest of the way? What about 47-30? What really makes the Nationals any better than the Braves?”
I don’t know if I’m Chipper Jones, in my final season, how I could stand to see a the Nationals win this division after being a doormat for more than a decade.
Honestly, I’d rather see the Phillies come back and win it than the Nats.
NickB
June 29th, 2012
6:50 pm
No, I don’t think Freeman was better than a 2 WAR last year, his lack of range at first base hurt him (and scoops aren’t enough to offset that )
this year, his range has improved and he’s almost worth the same this year as all of last year, just do to defensive improvements.
Like I said, first base is the most talent loaded position in the game, it’s really hard to be one of the top 5 over there, you gotta be Pujols, Votto ,Fielder, Tex good .
cowdogit
June 29th, 2012
6:51 pm
Bring up the speed , send down the Hippo’s .Speed wins close games .
Disgusted
June 29th, 2012
6:51 pm
“Oh, hell i don’t calculate WAR, I let fangraphs handle that crap, but I use it a a quick reference number to gauge two players who play the same position, or to refute the idea that “PLAYER A SUCKS CUZ HIS BATTING AVG IS .250…””
Well Nick, I cannot argue with that. Hey, there were seasons that Cal Ripken and Brooks Robinson hit in the .250’s and had real value to the team.
Brooks Robinson hit .234 for the 69 Orioles but given his defense, power and clutch hitting over the course of that yr, anyone who watched him would be a fool to say he did not have real value. Those 1969 to 71 Orioles teams should have had 3 WS champs, but it was not to be. Got one instead.
DS1
June 29th, 2012
6:53 pm
Mitchell
No dipstick, they’d have to go 50 and THIRTY SEVEN to get to 90 wins. At 50-27, they’d have 10 more games to go.
And to go 50 and THIRTY SEVEN, they only have to play .575 ball.
What a dumazz! Get the math right before making stupid posts.
MikeInFl
June 29th, 2012
6:54 pm
Nick, his line drive % is at 23%, up from 10 and 14 in previous years. Is it not reasonable to think that his BABIP has gone up not because of luck, but because hitters are hitting line drives where they used to hit ground balls or fly balls?
His GO/AO is about the same, but his GB/FB ratio again is way down….
He’s not unlucky; he’s getting hit hard.
NickB
June 29th, 2012
6:54 pm
Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell……..
you are asking the wrong question:
for the sake of argument, let’s assume that 3 games is too much to overcome in the division…
these are the 6 teams who will be in the race for the 2 WC spots:
Mets
Braves
Cards
Pirates
D-Backs
Giants/Dodgers
do you think all of these teams will go 50-wtvr? do you think 4 will win 50 more games?
IMO, it’s only going to take 85 games to get the WC and that means going 45-32 which is extremely likely
keylargo
June 29th, 2012
6:56 pm
Harper deserves to be thrown at for grabbing Simmons’ ankle and I wouldn’t mind seeing Jose Reyes squirming in the dirt after the DP when he hit Freddie. Yes, it’s Freddie’s responsibility to get down but Reyes arm action was parallel to the ground which is the only reason Freddie got hit.
NickB
June 29th, 2012
6:56 pm
crap I copied Mitchells bad numbers and hence messed up my own!! good catch DS1!!
DS1
June 29th, 2012
6:56 pm
NickB
He’s sucked you into his incorrect numbers…………..
64 year Braves fan
June 29th, 2012
6:57 pm
If Prado is not sick or injured, Fredi is a bigger bozo than I thought he was.
DS1
June 29th, 2012
6:57 pm
key
Too many wusses playing the game these days.
NickB
June 29th, 2012
6:57 pm
I think Venter’s is being squeezed a bit more by the umps as well, and he is getting a few more balls up as a result.
I still think he will be okay if he really is healthy
Jaded Braves Fan
June 29th, 2012
6:58 pm
Failure to come through in the big moments has been in the Braves’ DNA since 1996, and I’m not sure how you go about fixing that. We’ve changed players and hitting coaches, but nothing seems to rectify the problem. This team consistently hits worse in the clutch than they do in normal situations.
Past history can weigh on your mind. That’s how Boston can go 86 years without winning a World Series. Maybe the Braves’ hitters are too cerebral. Maybe we need some guys like the ‘04 Red Sox had who are too dumb to know or care about our legacy of failure in the big moments.
DS1
June 29th, 2012
6:58 pm
64 years……..
DOB says Prado has been suffering from a sorry hammy.
DS1
June 29th, 2012
7:00 pm
Jaded
Do you have facts to back up that claim? Just wondering?
MikeInFl
June 29th, 2012
7:01 pm
Oh I’m not giving up on him – he still has great stuff. Just having a tough year.
Venice Jim
June 29th, 2012
7:01 pm
Wayne – I am ashamed of my lack of math skills – well done…
NickB
June 29th, 2012
7:01 pm
IMO, what the team needs is time, lots of kids in the field, lots of kids on the staff. It’s remarkable such a young team can even conjur up an over .500 record. Historically, this just doesn’t happen that often.
TheOnlyBravesFan
June 29th, 2012
7:02 pm
If Prado is not sick or injured, Fredi is a bigger bozo than I thought he was
Do people read the blog, twitter, or any news source before making these stupid statements?
ChattTownBrian
June 29th, 2012
7:03 pm
This place gets so boring. Same thing everyday. All the time. Reliving the same old stuff, day in, day out.
I think the funnest times here is when nolie, uga, and other high tempered vets of the blog go at the dummies, or in uga’s case – McGuirk and LM. Haha
NickB
June 29th, 2012
7:05 pm
I love this time of baseball season, All Star Game approaches, trade talks start up, start to hit the dog days of summer and teams start to see what they really are.
TheOnlyBravesFan
June 29th, 2012
7:06 pm
I love this time of baseball season, All Star Game approaches, trade talks start up, start to hit the dog days of summer and teams start to see what they really are.
Trade rumors are my favorite part of the season…. Live for this.
brian
June 29th, 2012
7:07 pm
Wilson no longer needs to be in the starting lineup of a MLB club
brian
June 29th, 2012
7:08 pm
I am out of town but where is Prado????
ChattTownBrian
June 29th, 2012
7:08 pm
Braves theme song for this series:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAMLa5ZC-B4
brian
June 29th, 2012
7:09 pm
braves need to put up or shut up this weekend.
DS1
June 29th, 2012
7:09 pm
brian
I prefer Jack “Jumpin Jack Flash the Leather” Wilson than The Rev.
VJ
And I didn’t have to take off my shoes to count that up either………..
Jaded Braves Fan
June 29th, 2012
7:10 pm
“Do you have facts to back up that claim? Just wondering?”
Sure. Six straight postseason series losses. Worst September collapse in NL history last year. Near collapse in 2010. Eight straight World Series losses.
Those numbers don’t directly relate to the offense, but those of us who were around to remember those games know it’s usually been the bats that haven’t come through in the big moments.
I’m usually not even one who pays much mind to “clutch” hitting. I think clutch is an often-overused buzzword. But the Braves’ have such a substantial body of work when it comes to failure in the clutch that it’s almost impossible to ignore.
brian
June 29th, 2012
7:10 pm
love to hear that the braves have the flexibility to do the big trade. Greinke, Hamels or bust
NickB
June 29th, 2012
7:10 pm
Jon Heyman reporting that the Dodgers are the favorite to land Dempster as they never stopped talking to the Cubs after he went on the DL
Sopheee
June 29th, 2012
7:13 pm
Feel better soon, ‘teen ‘teen.
Murph
June 29th, 2012
7:19 pm
love to hear that the braves have the flexibility to do the big trade. Greinke, Hamels or bust
I don’t think the Phillies would trade Hamels within the division… or that the Braves would give the Phillies the prospects it would take to land Hamels.
Teheran might be having a down year, but he’ll figure it all out… and I don’t want to have to face him 5 or 6 times a year after he does.
ChattTownBrian
June 29th, 2012
7:20 pm
Yuer Anus of the Tokyo Dragons writers reporting Braves are looking at a reunion with Kenshin Kawakami.
Waffle House or Bust
June 29th, 2012
7:20 pm
Ha Ha!! I predicted three things from this series and one of them already has happened. I knew Fredi would mess with the lineup. My other two predictions…
2. Braves lose 2 of 3 to Nats.
3. Some bloggers will continue to post the season is early.
Enjoy the game suckas!
Efrim
June 29th, 2012
7:21 pm
Like I said, first base is the most talent loaded position in the game, it’s really hard to be one of the top 5 over there, you gotta be Pujols, Votto ,Fielder, Tex good .
Completely agree.
Tomahawk Mafia
June 29th, 2012
7:22 pm
It is difficult to be confident about this series, which is why a sweep of Arizona would have been in the Braves best interest.
ChattTownBrian
June 29th, 2012
7:23 pm
Frank will lead you down that road of the Greinke’s and the Dempster’s, but has his sights set on that swift lefty of the M’s. His 21 homeruns given up and all.