2:52 pm June 28, 2012, by David O'Brien
June 29th, 20121:10 am
like I said, why would I get mad? I like picking on Mitchell. You are thinking way too highly of yourself if you think that I would get mad over anything that you say. I can only assume that you think that because you are mad.
Like I said, insults breed creative insulting replies, not anger to anyone steeped in that form of humor.
you are sounding kinda testy there though.
and what does it matter who you addressed it to? It is a public blog and we are all free to ridicule those we think are idjits
June 29th, 20121:11 am
Obama your Mama!
June 29th, 20121:12 am
June 29th, 20121:13 am
no thank you, I don’t want my mama hanging around Obama…
maybe DFA would
June 29th, 20121:15 am
no snowflake, i dont.
aha playing the race card again? little bigot
June 29th, 20121:16 am
same ol’, same ol’….
June 29th, 20121:17 am
no matter what name you use you just can’t stop bringing that up can you?
June 29th, 20121:18 am
Bitchell, come back. you are more fun…..
how do you know my mother is black ? you are the racists here.
June 29th, 20121:19 am
so, back to baseball
something was brought to my attention by a friend about the new CBA and how it will affect trades.
before, if you traded for say Greinke and got him for two months, you at least got 2 draft picks as compensation for losing him, but now mid season acquisitions are not eligible for said draft pick protection.
This, IMO, means the pricetage for potential “rental” players will drop a fair bit from last year. So instead of a team dropping a top 5 prospect plus some other pieces, I bet nobody on the big TOP 20 IN MLB prospect lists will be required , perhaps someone in the top 50 and another in the top 100 and a low level guy, but it’s not gonna take Delgado or Teheran to get him.
June 29th, 20121:20 am
i have the right to be on this blog as long as i am not saying anything racists. you are the one.
I did not say anything about your mother. you are the one who always brings the subject up, just like with snowflake. not that it’s any surprise. I couldn’t care less what your mother is or you either.
June 29th, 20121:21 am
the same here.
June 29th, 20121:22 am
I hope you win the races…..I’m going to bed.
June 29th, 20121:23 am
me? who started with the “snowflake” crap? Not I.
You will never meet anybody who cares less about race or religion than I do.
I also never said you don’t have a right to be here. Are you sure you can read???
June 29th, 20121:24 am
yeah Nick, Efrim and I and a few others were talking about that back when the changes were made. It might indeed lower the trade value of rentals some
June 29th, 20121:25 am
It would be real nice to take this series against the gNats huh?
you just wont let it go.
June 29th, 20121:27 am
we will win 1 game.
Frankly with the pitching matchups, I would consider 2 out of 3 to be a great success
June 29th, 20121:29 am
I won’t let it go? all I am doing now is responding to your comments……
but our best pitchers are not going. like hudson and hanson.
June 29th, 20121:30 am
cya all, have a good night..
June 29th, 20121:31 am
NickB, really ??? you see minor winning ??
June 29th, 20121:34 am
I could see Delgado and Hudson winning, and IF we can get to Strasberg early, we have a shot at that game too
June 29th, 20121:39 am
Insider on pitching injuries
On Tuesday night, word went around: Cincinnati Reds starter Bronson Arroyo was working on a no-hitter against the Milwaukee Brewers. Through 7 1/3 innings, Arroyo had allowed only one baserunner — a Ryan Braun hit-by-pitch in the first. Milwaukee had managed to get only four balls out of the infield.
This was unexpected, to say the least. Seventy-three pitchers have pitched at least 250 innings in the past two seasons. Only four of them have given up hits at a higher rate than Arroyo. The 35-year-old right-hander hasn’t thrown a pitch at 90 miles per hour all season, and his career ERA is basically league average.
Even if he did throw a no-hitter, no one would say Arroyo has “no-hit stuff,” which is why it wasn’t shocking when the no-hitter and the Reds’ 3-0 eventually vanished in the eighth. But there’s one crucial thing Arroyo does almost as good as anyone: He’s very, very good at showing up for work.
Most durable pitchers
Since 2002, here are the 10 pitchers to throw at least 1,000 innings without going on the DL.
Baseball Prospectus keeps complete records of major-league disabled list stints starting in 2002. Since then, 10 pitchers have thrown at least 1,000 innings without once appearing on the disabled list. Arroyo ranks fourth on that list, with a little more than 1,800 innings (see table).
Arroyo is similar to Livan Hernandez, who’s in his 17th big league season and has yet to spend a day on the DL. In his prime seasons of 2000-2005, Hernandez’ 4.01 ERA was just 5 percent below league average. Forty pitchers averaged at least 100 innings per season during the same span with better ERAs. But Hernandez was the 10th-most-valuable pitcher during that period, racking up more than 19 wins above replacement purely by his ability to take the ball. He averaged 237 innings per season, and the teams he played for — Giants, Expos and Nationals — weren’t looking for flair. They were buying outs in bulk.
This durability sets guys like Hernandez apart from most pitchers. In each of the six seasons mentioned above, Hernandez finished in the top five in pitcher abuse points, a pitch-count-based metric designed by Baseball Prospectus to assess stress. Others on the list — Jason Schmidt, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Victor Zambrano — broke down in the near future.
After looking at the data, sometimes it seems surprising when any pitcher stays healthy for an extended period of time. A study by Jeff Zimmerman in 2010 determined that during the previous decade, any starter who had pitched at least 120 innings in one season had a 41 percent chance of hitting the DL the following year. From 2005-2011, an average of just less than 11 Tommy John surgeries were performed through June, according to data collected by BP injury authority Corey Dawkins. This year, the count is already up to 23, with pitchers like Jose Contreras, Felipe Paulino and Daniel Hudson likely to add to the total in the coming weeks.
With seemingly every day bringing news of new injuries, how is it that certain pitchers have managed to stay healthy year after year? And how might teams be able to find or develop more of them?
Some of these well-preserved pitchers have at least one obvious quality in common: less-than-impressive velocity. According to PITCHf/x data available at Brooks Baseball, the primary fastballs of the aforementioned top five DL-free pitchers averaged just 88.2 mph. That’s not a coincidence, according to the American Sports Medicine Institute’s Glenn Fleisig, one of the foremost experts on pitching biomechanics. “All things being equal, the 90-mph fastball is more stress on the elbow and shoulder than the 80-mph fastball,” Fleisig says.
That presents a problem for teams, since velocity often goes hand-in-hand with success. All else being equal, the harder a pitcher throws, the lower his ERA goes. But that extra speed creates extra stress, and that stress leads to injuries. Thus far, Justin Verlander has combined the durability of a league-average soft-tosser like Hernandez with the elite fastball and performance of a Cy Young winner, but very few other starters can say the same.
However, it’s never the case that all things between two pitchers are equal aside from velocity. For one thing, every pitcher delivers the ball in his own unique way, and that can mean the difference between a pitcher who breaks down and one who holds up. “If it’s good mechanics versus bad mechanics, that could more than compensate for the difference in ball velocity,” Fleisig says.
But what do “good” and “bad” mechanics look like? If it were easy to pass judgment on a player’s mechanics, there would be more major leaguers like Hernandez. Unfortunately, making sense of mechanics is one of the most difficult tasks facing teams. According to one scouting executive with a major league club, one of the factors that makes evaluating mechanics so difficult is that there’s no example of optimal mechanics to which each pitcher can be compared. “People say that maybe [Greg] Maddux had perfect mechanics,” says the executive. “But it’s very tough to say that there’s one ideal mechanical delivery, or one ideal arm action.”
Using the precise measurements made possible by motion capturing and high-speed cameras, Fleisig and his colleagues at ASMI have identified a number of mechanical risk factors and designed programs to correct them. He hopes that within 10 years, biomechanical analysis will become automated to the point that data can be collected in games. As ASMI’s methods improve and teams increasingly come to accept them, analysis of mechanics could pay off in better health for pitchers. However, short of sending a pitcher to be analyzed in the laboratory, teams can still learn a lot with the naked eye.
“There are definitely visual indicators that you can see from the stands,” says the executive. “The real good scouts, they’re all over it. It’s something that you can tell by watching if you know what you’re watching for. It’s not 100 percent, but I don’t think anything when you’re dealing with scouting is.”
Faulty mechanics can be fixed, but only at considerable risk to a pitcher’s performance. Doug Thorburn, a former biotechnician at the National Pitching Association and the co-author of “Arm Action, Arm Path and the Perfect Pitch,” says, “An ideal development path will include mechanical instruction in the early stages in order to maximize efficiency and minimize risk as the pitcher climbs the minor-league ladder.” By the time a pitcher reaches the majors, Fleisig adds, “It’s more a mentality of, ‘If it ain’t broken, don’t fix it.’”
But mechanics aren’t everything. “Fifty percent of the equation is how much damage you do to your arm, and the other 50 percent is how effectively you repair and recover from your damage,” Fleisig says. That means that much more than mechanics goes into the complex calculus of predicting what’s in store for a pitcher, including workload, nutrition and conditioning. (Bobby Cox once called Derek Lowe’s exercise program the “best workout routine I’ve ever seen.”) And the most important factor of all might be one whose impact on health is still largely beyond our understanding: Genetics.
AP Photo/Ann Heisenfelt
It’s difficult to say if Livan Hernandez’ durability is due mostly to his mechanics or simply genetics.
“All of these guys at the major-league level, and maybe most of the guys at the minor-league level, to a certain extent, they won the genetic lottery,” says the executive. “There are things they do that the average person just cannot do. You look at a guy like Livan Hernandez, that’s genetics. He’s not exactly a physical specimen, but he’s just got an arm that works, and he can go out there and pitch and pitch and pitch, and he doesn’t break down, he stays healthy. I’m not going to say that it’s not the product of a lot of hard work, but at the same time, he’s obviously just special.”
Since genetic freaks are few and far between, both Fleisig and the executive emphasize the importance of competent coaching and training staffs. “You want an aggressive athlete,” Fleisig says. “But if the athlete has a good relationship with the coach and the trainer to help read, whether in the training room or on the field, whether he’s had enough today, that player is going to benefit and have a longer endurance. Likewise, the next day, the player who knows his body and talks to the trainer and says, ‘My arm’s a little more worn out; I need a little more therapy,’ that’s where the people aspect comes into the equation.”
Despite the efforts of Fleisig and others, most of the major advances in pitcher preservation have been made in injury treatment. Injury prediction and prevention have made more modest progress.
“I don’t know that you can say that we’ve made a whole lot of progress,” the executive said. “I think teams can kind of identify the high-risk guys, but at the end of the year, there are going to be a ton of guys you weren’t expecting to break down.”
Given all the uncertainty, it’s not surprising that pitchers like Hernandez and Lowe have continued to draw interest from teams as they get into their mid-to-late 30s. All else being equal — there’s that phrase again — given a choice between an older pitcher with a clean bill of health and a slightly more injury-prone pitcher in his prime, which would most teams choose?
“The industry will probably say they’re going to go with the older guy, the Livan Hernandez,” says the executive. “You’ve got more to stand behind if you say, ‘We’re going to take the guy with this track record of performance over the last 10 years.’ But when that GM lays his head down on the pillow at night, he’s probably thinking that it’s a coin flip.”
Teams can take several steps to maximize their odds of lucking into the next Hernandez. They can recruit the best scouts, coaches and trainers and monitor their pitchers closely. They can make use of new technologies like PITCHf/x and the motion capturing available at ASMI. But even if they do everything right, they can mitigate the risk only so much.
“Pitchers are going to get hurt,” the executive concluded. “You just hope it’s not your guys at the wrong time.”
Ben Lindbergh is the managing editor of Baseball Prospectus.
oh i didnt know hudson was going in the series.
June 29th, 20121:42 am
then again, the temp for sunday is a 108 and hudson struggle in hot weather.
June 29th, 20122:08 am
June 28th, 2012
What do you not understand about using your closer in a tie game at home? Standard baseball stuff there dipstick.
Did I miss something?
We lost, right?
June 29th, 20125:13 am
Enter your comments here
June 29th, 20125:16 am
All, Braves can win two out of three. The Nats aren’t that tough, and Braves do have the pitching. Talk after the game today, all have fun. I believe the Braves can win. Peace my friends…..”Go!!!!!Braves!!!!!”
June 29th, 20125:45 am
i know we need to save our bullpen but staying with the starter too long two nights in a row is poor management,especially when you see they are losing it. not only does uggla need some time off but freddie needs some time off too
June 29th, 20127:01 am
Our PONY complex out here is the largest and most dominant in the nation for the younger players — 10 and under
From Keith’s Lawd:
Jim from Fresno: What about the Parker brothers? Are they gamers?
Keith’s Lawd: The commitment isn’t there. Their mom made them leave practice early, to pick up Candy from the pet groomer. Candy, on the other hand, has a real shot in next year’s Westminster Toy Group, IF, she can get a cool name like, ” Ars Arnatoria’s Rhesus Pesus”. I wish them the best. Their father is a pastry chef. Uses real Crisco for crust. To.Die.For.
June 29th, 20127:04 am
I will be your Dixie chicken
if you be my Tennesse lamb
and we can walk together
down in Dixie Land
Crash into me
Crash into me
Crash into me
Crash into me
June 29th, 20127:31 am
Just looked at Round 1 of the NBA Draft from last night. Other than Unibrow, 29 players of Who’s That.
Guess college basketball ain’t my thing…
June 29th, 20127:34 am
Rank Poster Frequency
1 TheOnlyBravesFan 111
2 Ease 95
3 Efrim 70
4 nolie 56
5 jeffrey d 44
I’ve never cracked the top five before, let alone the top two.
What’s funny is that the last two days have be two of the most productive I’ve had in a long time.
June 29th, 20127:36 am
Take away the lame MaCann fat jokes, and I am easily #1…
June 29th, 20127:50 am
Can someone tell me what’s happening in this picture on the Braves front page? It looks like this guy (I can’t tell who it is) is slipping on a banana peel while someone blows a penny whistle.
June 29th, 20127:52 am
Sadly, today is my last day of work for a few weeks, so I won’t be able to grace you guys with my charm and hilarity for awhile.
June 29th, 20127:53 am
Oh, who are we kidding. I’ll be blogging 24/7 now while I’m watching infomercials in the dark and digging through a tub of ice cream in my sweatpants.
June 29th, 20128:12 am
Last Night’s Loss was not on Fredi
I blame Matt Chernoff for Jinxing Kimmie…He does it everytime!
He did it yesterday in saying that Kimmie should be in the Talks for Cy Young if he keeps his current pace (before last nights game)
June 29th, 20128:21 am
I normally Don’t get Greedy but we should’ve swept the series against the D-Bags . Ol Simp (Joe Simpson) mentioned it would be huge for morale heading into the Epic Clash this weekend against the Curly W….
The Pitching Matchups on paper favor the Curly W’s to take 2 out of 3…Count me Leading the Train of people who wanted Little Big Man Med’s to stat Saturday…WTH is Fredi Thinking???
June 29th, 20128:22 am
Its actually Simmons making a great play. He kinda of over ran the ball a tad and had to reach back. But he went a long way to get…
June 29th, 20128:24 am
Like I said yesterday before heading out to play in US 78 traffic, This year’s version of The Curly W reminds me of the 1994Pre-strike Expos…Just a Nasty Thorn in our side all year and a team that we can’t seem to get over the Hump.
That 1994 Expos Squad would’ve been an annual team to make the wildcard or division had it not been for the strike in 1994 which singlehandedly killed Baseball in Montreal
June 29th, 20128:27 am
Nah, I didn’t tell 26 McCann fat jokes. Good morning everyone.
June 29th, 20128:30 am
D-Bags – Short for douchebag, a person that sucks ass
Totally describes the Arizona Diamondback Baseball Club. Nice imagery.
Ol Simp – Joe Simpson?
Didn’t realize he was that old…Guess that might make Ol nolie blush a little.
Curly W’s – Curly Q’s? Maybe a mistyping?
Well anyway, Curly Q’s is a Moist Curls Detangler and Daily Curl Moisturize
Little Big Man – an oxymoron
Ha!, Nugh’ said…
June 29th, 20128:34 am
Ol Simp (Joe Simpson) is like an Uncle to us young Braves Fans
He is the only cat left from the old TBS Crew, Can’t believe he has been doing it (broadcasting) for 28 years…
Haven’t seen Gimpah and McError in some time. Hope he is doing ok.
CS: Upton, J (7, 2nd base by Jurrjens/McCann).
Just in case he is still reading…He might’ve missed that.
June 29th, 20128:36 am
The real ‘Curly Q’ Don Sutton is at about 25 years maybe (excluding the short hiatus with the Nats and Dodgers)…
June 29th, 20128:38 am
Sutton stated with the Braves in 1989, broadcasting with TBS…
He left in 2006 and came back in 2009.
June 29th, 20128:39 am
UGA running back #IsaiahCrowell sitting in Athens lock up right now on weapons charges.
June 29th, 20128:40 am
The Keith Marshall Era has begun…
June 29th, 20128:41 am
“UGA running back #IsaiahCrowell sitting in Athens lock up right now on weapons charges.”
June 29th, 20128:43 am
Dumb, Dumb, Dumb!!!
Buck and Kincade Should be interesting today….
June 29th, 20128:47 am
And this is somehow going to tune into…
It’s all Mark Richt’s fault.
Might as well blame Bobby too.
June 29th, 20128:48 am
Buck and Kincade? Nah, just Kincaid. When will Crowell get it together?
June 29th, 20128:53 am
And Fredi. Can’t wait for George’s take.
June 29th, 20128:57 am
Tough loss, but it was bound to happen at some point. Funny as it did when we all looked up and noticed Kimbrel has been perfect since early May.
June 29th, 20128:58 am
When will Crowell get it together?
More like where.
June 29th, 20128:59 am
I can’t believe that Fredi used his closer in a non save situation. He is not a smart MGR.
June 29th, 20129:00 am
Julio Teheran gave up 5 home runs in 144.2 IP in the minors in 2011.
He has given up 10 home runs in 68 IP in the minors to date this year.
June 29th, 20129:01 am
Tough loss last night, offense sucked and lost the game, it happens.
Defense has been outstanding as of late, bullpen, and starting pitching good as well. And McCann can throw out runners…
June 29th, 20129:03 am
Efrim They’ve all come on his curveball Interesting to see him struggle a bit,, need to trade him
June 29th, 20129:07 am
It’s actually scary how good the defense has been. Simmons is something else. Bourn and Heyward are elite defenders at their positions.
June 29th, 20129:08 am
I hope not where…I like Crowell
June 29th, 20129:11 am
jeffrey: I like his talent and his RB skills, but not his sense of judgement.
June 29th, 20129:13 am
“Prado basically hits half the year and is very, very average the other half of the year.”
Does anyone actually look things up before declaring their opinion?
Martin by month throughout his career -
April – .289, .359, .441, .800
May – .303, .355, .448, .802
June – .329, .366, .492, .858
July – .286, .336, .443, .779
August – .316, .353, .470, .823
September – .268, .315, .363, ..678
Seems pretty steady to me. Except for September (where he’s been injured the past two seasons), one month with below an .800 OPS (and that one month a .779 which ain’t off by much), he’s a damned good offensive player – a far cry from being “very, very average the other half of the season”.
June 29th, 20129:14 am
Malcolm between the tackles and Marshall slash and gash. I am not that disappointed.
June 29th, 20129:16 am
Apparently UGA does not recruit on “sense of judgment’.
June 29th, 20129:17 am
“Simmons is something else.”
Well it is nice to feel like it is an automatic out when he gets to the ball, as opposed to with Tyler…the feeling of this could be a rough play every time.
Owned last night.
Now, there’s a “baseball team” coming to town.
Lets go…..n’ stuff.
June 29th, 20129:19 am
Prado is great. While I know his bat can play in LF, I’m hoping they stick him at 3rd base next year and leave him there for the next 4 seasons – provided they sign him to a 3 year extension through 2016.
June 29th, 20129:20 am
How old is Crowell?
Is Crowell the same guy that had issues last year too? Not giving it all in practice, failed a drug test, etc?
June 29th, 20129:21 am
Although I probably just described half the SEC there.
June 29th, 20129:22 am
Soph: Yep. Think he also had some academic issues as well (either bad grades or not showing up to class, something he said he did regularly in HS)
June 29th, 20129:24 am
“Although I probably just described half the SEC there.”
Bump It up to 2/3’s of the SEC
June 29th, 20129:25 am
bump it up to everyone but Vandy
June 29th, 20129:26 am
Prado is probably a better bet for an extension than anyone on the team this winter.
June 29th, 20129:28 am
As it should be. Isn’t anyone else who really “needs” one.
June 29th, 20129:36 am
Crowell’s 19 and wasn’t raised like you or me. He’s a good kid and hopefully he’ll grow up and quit making dumb decisions.
June 29th, 20129:37 am
I guess I’m more sympathetic because I see this stuff every day
June 29th, 20129:45 am
It still is amazing to me that the team even considering trading Prado last off-season. Shouldn’t have even be mentioned. Just like it shouldn’t be mentioned trading Kimbrel or Heyward.
You are in a unique position jeffrey, but college is also about growing up and learning the responsibility of being an adult. And especially if you are in a position with athletic responsibility. Crowell just let down/disappointed 50+ teammates and coaches that believed in him. Of that I can speak.
DUI’s, failed drug tests, academic problems, yeah, I can see and dismiss as kids being kids and doing dumb things. But there is no excuse for a 19 year having a gun in the car. None.
McFann :Ô: :Ô: :ô:
Ease @ 8:34—
Yeah, I think he did miss that—I’m sure he would have posted about that AND the tag at homeplate if he’d seen them…
June 29th, 20129:47 am
but college is also about growing up and learning the responsibility of being an adult
This is a kid who wouldn’t normally go to college if he wasn’t gifted athletically. I really hope he takes that opportunity to grow up because if he doesn’t, he’s just going to continue the cycle that’s lead him to do stupid stuff like this.
June 29th, 20129:48 am
June 29th, 20129:49 am
Trade Julio Teheran for Zack Greinke. Julio stinks and isn’t a top prospect any longer. Trade him now before his value gets even worse.
June 29th, 20129:50 am
Yeah they do. Then somebody comes along and post half of their post.
Prado has hit much better in half of every season except in 2011 when he was consistent throughout the whole year. .260 .302 .385 .687
I can’t find the quote that showed his numbers are much better one half of the year than the other because I can’t remember which blog it was on but 2010 shows how he has done most of his careeer which is to hit better half of the year than the other.
NO ONE COMPARED MONTH TO MONTH.
prado in 2010 april thru june… .. 333 .374 .483 .857
PRADO IN 2010 july thru sept….274 .320 .429 .749
prado in 2010 april thru june 333 .374 .483 .857
PRADO IN 2010 july thru sept .274 .320 .429 .749
prado in 2011 when he was consistant the whole yeAR 260 .302 .385 .687
Efrim – Agreed on the Prado extension, but I’d even go four years. His work ethic is incredible and I seriously doubt he’s going to fade anytime soon. One of the steadiest players we have and one hell of a motivated ballplayer.
June 29th, 20129:51 am
Reminds me of people that I went to high school with.
June 29th, 20129:52 am
“Trade Julio Teheran for Zack Greinke”
No offense, but Thank Gawd you are not the GM
June 29th, 20129:53 am
“But there is no excuse for a 19 year having a gun in the car. None.”
Correction…should have read….
“But there is no excuse for a 19 year having a gun”
MFin04 – I never thought they really tried to trade him – nothing but a bunch of rumors from scribes that didn’t have anything concrete to talk about for a couple of months and some other bnlogging fools that actually thought it would be beneficial to trade a good bit of what makes the Braves offense productive.
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