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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
2,420 comments Add your comment
faninva
May 31st, 2012
5:07 pm
Lew – you should write a book. good stuff.
phil
May 31st, 2012
5:07 pm
You can’t reason with Shaun…
Give up.
Thought, research and deliberation just went into that Edwards’ trial that cost millions of dollars….
End result?
George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:08 pm
If y’all have criticisms for the advanced metrics, I’m fine with that. But you need to complete the thought and offer the reasons you think they’re flawed. I’m not fine with with criticisms that end with you saying “the stat isn’t perfect.” You have to tell me why.
raleighbravefan
May 31st, 2012
5:08 pm
nolie – I loved Harry also. That’s the problem…second highest rated show on NBC…but only we old f@rts watched it. Advertisers hate old f@rts. Of course, that was kinda the whole point of the show…
Shaun
May 31st, 2012
5:09 pm
Have any of you anti-WAR or anti-sabermetric folks ever considered looking into things from the side of the folks who’ve actually done the research and the dirty work? Perhaps if you would be willing to do that, you would understand that sabermetrics isn’t actually some conspiracy.
Hey, look out, everyone! NAFTA and WAR are conspiracies towards a New World Order, a one-world government, advanced by the Illuminati, the Freemasons and the Bilderberg Group and Bill James. I read about it in Nostradamus’ works.
faninva
May 31st, 2012
5:10 pm
if Kerry had won in 04, guess ambulance chaser boy would still be in office…then again, maybe not.
Mitchie-sand
May 31st, 2012
5:10 pm
Hello everyone. I actually have a chance to be on the ole blog! Its midnight and Im off tomorrow so Im doing my best Bay Area Steve impression.
cricket
May 31st, 2012
5:10 pm
Harry was a defender that pretty much never lost, no matter the circumstances, woulda got the same result..one of the reasons i stopped DVRing it
Mitchie-sand
May 31st, 2012
5:10 pm
*see whiskey
raleighbravefan
May 31st, 2012
5:11 pm
I really like WAR…”All Day Music” is my favorite, followed by “Why Can’t We Be Friends?”. War was better than the Animals, who weren’t bad either.
nolie
May 31st, 2012
5:11 pm
any lawyer David E Kelley ever created coulda done better than that.
phil
May 31st, 2012
5:12 pm
Shaun = George Stein
VaBravesFan
May 31st, 2012
5:14 pm
Everyone has an opinion or view on things. You don’t have to keep rambling on and on and on about.
nolie
May 31st, 2012
5:14 pm
it wasn’t really about win or lose though they did lose some, any more than Boston Legal was
Murph
May 31st, 2012
5:14 pm
OPS and Fielding % are the only two stats that matter.
Shaun
May 31st, 2012
5:15 pm
phil, yes, it’s a shame to be compared to someone who actually would like something more convincing than just “the stat isn’t perfect.” I’m just disappointed to be compared to someone who actually wants folks to build a rationale case instead of just “it’s no good because it’s no good” essentially because “I said so.”
faninva
May 31st, 2012
5:15 pm
spill the wine..take that pearl.
nolie
May 31st, 2012
5:15 pm
The Practice was a bit more about win or lose I think
phil
May 31st, 2012
5:15 pm
George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:08 pm
If y’all have criticisms for the advanced metrics, I’m fine with that. But you need to complete the thought and offer the reasons you think they’re flawed. I’m not fine with with criticisms that end with you saying “the stat isn’t perfect.” You have to tell me why.
************
But seriously, I don’t know enough about it to intelligently, or even stupidly, talk much about WAR.
I have kids to raise, work to do, etc, and BA, HR, RBI, OBP, OPS and slugging % work well enough for my limited purposes.
It’s not my job to make baseball decisions. It’s my job to gripe, moan, whine, complain, sometimes praise and ceaselessly b*tch about them….
Bay Area Steve
May 31st, 2012
5:16 pm
Atta boy, Mitch. Let there be smooth whiskey and plentiful air conditioning for your day off.
DAP
May 31st, 2012
5:17 pm
george stien I’m not fine with with criticisms that end with you saying “the stat isn’t perfect.” You have to tell me why
i did. others have. lots of times. still the same reasons as always.
George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:17 pm
Right, Phil. I think we’ve played this game before.
nolie
May 31st, 2012
5:17 pm
and doing a damn fine job too phil……….
ncgary
May 31st, 2012
5:17 pm
go braves
if we sign franco and moyer
we could probably be the only franchise to have a 50 plus hitter drive in the winning rbi
for a 50 year old winning pitcher, it would probably only take 3 or 4 seasons to make it happen
Shaun
May 31st, 2012
5:18 pm
Alfonso Soriano is among the best fielders in baseball this season, what, with his 1.000 fielding percentage.
Bay Area Steve
May 31st, 2012
5:18 pm
There were at least four distinct criticisms of WAR on the last page, if I’m remembering right. None of which were addressed. As they never are, here, for what must be the 762nd time we’ve had this discussion.
phil, Shaun is not George. Mr. Stein is a reasonable man.
George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:19 pm
Fair enough, DAP. I don’t read this blog particularly often anymore because the level of discourse is so low.
You do make me chuckle, phil.
CrαZy
May 31st, 2012
5:19 pm
Am I the only one that pictures the Shaunster as the crazy hair guy on the Science channel?
George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:20 pm
I think he knows that, Bay Area Steve. It’s a joke.
But seriously, calling someone reasonable around these parts can get you hurt.
CrαZy
May 31st, 2012
5:20 pm
Shaun = Crazy hair alien guy on the Science channel.
Bay Area Steve
May 31st, 2012
5:21 pm
George,
Do you know of a Braves public forum which is better?
Shaun
May 31st, 2012
5:21 pm
DAP, WAR should not simply be discounted because its scale starts with a theoretical replacement level player. Just because the replacement level player may be theoretical doesn’t mean it’s not a well-thought through baseline for zero on the scale of major league value. Theoretical doesn’t automatically negate the entire calculation.
CrαZy
May 31st, 2012
5:22 pm
OPS and Fielding % are the only two stats that matter.—Murph
“I gotta believe” others are important as well… RBI’s are important right?
DAP
May 31st, 2012
5:25 pm
shaun should not simply be discounted because its scale starts with a theoretical replacement level player.
i made sure to mention in my first post on the subject that i dont totally discount WAR, only that im skeptical of it. i think its totally appropriate for me to take that stance based on some of the inexact methods of ascribing value to players (UZR was mentioned as one, as well as the fictitious replacement player that team may or may not have.)
George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:27 pm
There are a handful, but I don’t make a habit of posting, BAS.
The thing with the advanced metrics is to remain critical of them. I think, in general, they are better than average, home runs, and RBI. But if we stay critical, we can add more value that would make them even more accurate.
And if all else fails, be a slave to OBP.
VaBravesFan
May 31st, 2012
5:29 pm
I value OBP the most. Always look at BB/K rates alot too.
raleighbravefan
May 31st, 2012
5:30 pm
Yeah, lawyers are “ambulance chasers…until you have been harmed by no fault of your own. The little girl who made Edwards famous litterly had the intestines syphoned out of her body by a faulty pool drain (cover was left off). She will never be the same, but will live the rest of her life with expensive medical problems. Not glorigying Edwards, by any means, but real people are hurt and killed by real neglegence, or malpractice, or drunk drivers, or…If you are for people taking personally taking responsibilities for their actions, you should applaude those who hold them accountable. Frivilous lawsuit is often in the eyes of the beholder.
Murph
May 31st, 2012
5:31 pm
CraZy, you gotta believe that if I were to make a proclamation about which stats matter that I gotta believe I’ve done the research.
Shaun, that’s right, Alfonso Soriano is one of the best LF in the game right now. Has he dropped any balls that have been hit to him? No. Has he thrown any into the stands? No. That makes him pretty darn good in my book.
George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:31 pm
Bingo, VaBravesFan. If a guy is walking more than he strikes out, there’s a 100% chance he’s really friggin’ good.
Bay Area Steve
May 31st, 2012
5:31 pm
“There are a handful”
Might you list them?
As to the rest of your post, I think the vast majority here would entirely agree with it.
raleighbravefan
May 31st, 2012
5:33 pm
Gotta go. Later, my friends.
cricket
May 31st, 2012
5:34 pm
only OBP? no slugging?
VaBravesFan
May 31st, 2012
5:35 pm
Jason Heyward has walked 13% of the time in his career, while Chipper has walked 14% of the time. Not to shabby.
brian
May 31st, 2012
5:35 pm
raleigh – edwards did represent some people who needed help but he also made a good bit of his money using junk science. He sued OBs out the wazoo for CP, etc. with the argument that they should have had a C-section. He had a smooth talking OB and he would charm the jury. He continued doing this even after research showed that most babies with CP had issues in utero that made the labor difficult. It did not matter what the national association of OBs said, etc., he just sweet talked the jury and got lottery type awards
George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:35 pm
Talking Chop has some decent stuff and Capitol Avenue Club are two that I like. They have a few bright writers and several posters who offer good insight.
Also, follow Frediot on Twitter to get a laugh during games.
Bay Area Steve
May 31st, 2012
5:36 pm
Thank you, George.
brian
May 31st, 2012
5:36 pm
Edwards did some good with cases but was also the classic ambulance chaser, but he was exceptionally good at what he did. I was in Raleigh after he was elected to the Senate and doctors there were more than happy to have him in Washington
VaBravesFan
May 31st, 2012
5:37 pm
cricket
I value all stats to a certain extent, but I think OBP is king.
Mitchie-sand
May 31st, 2012
5:37 pm
BAS, luckily the AC is flowing right now, but the whiskey is running low. We have a “ration” on how much we can purchase a month. The end of the month always gets sketchy… good thing tomorrow its the 1st out here.
phil
May 31st, 2012
5:37 pm
George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:19 pm
Fair enough, DAP.I don’t read this blog particularly often anymore because the level of discourse is so low.
*************
That’s not accurate. It can often be lower, when I’m around and plenty of others, but there’s plenty of good stuff on here for a know it all like you, George…
Mitchie-sand
May 31st, 2012
5:38 pm
Actually its the first as of 37 minutes ago…
George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:38 pm
If you only can choose one, cricket, choose OBP.
No prob, BAS.
George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:38 pm
You rarely disappoint, phil.
phil
May 31st, 2012
5:40 pm
brian – Your 5:35 is just the chamber of commerce talking. You don’t have even a remote clue what you’re talking about.
Stick to something you do understand, whatever it might be.
Bay Area Steve
May 31st, 2012
5:43 pm
“ration”
I think some bartering with your non-imbibing comrades is in order. You can buy the smokes. And, well done timing the day off with month-end. Fortuitous, indeed.
Shaun
May 31st, 2012
5:45 pm
Murph, yes. Failing to get to balls that other leftfielders would catch means nothing. It’s only about catching the balls that come directly to the fielder, no matter how little he has to move. Let’s just ignore all those other batted balls that a fielder doesn’t have the range to even touch, even if most fielders would snag it.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
May 31st, 2012
5:45 pm
I hardly go on CAC anymore…I don’t like the new design…
faninva
May 31st, 2012
5:46 pm
raleighbravefan – I meant no disrespect. you’re right, they are there if you need them, only i am afraid there are many who’s only goal is to file frivolous law suits that clog up our courts and make it harder for people with real issues get the justice they need. I’m sorry, but Edwards just has that stereotypical ambulance chaser “charm” about him – just strikes me as sleazy.
VaBravesFan
May 31st, 2012
5:47 pm
OBP values walks, which is an indicator of plate discipline. That’s why I think its one of the top stats.
Ship Heyward to AAA (Rob from SC)
May 31st, 2012
5:48 pm
Braves should send Heyward down when Chipper comes off DL
flange1
May 31st, 2012
5:51 pm
George Stein,
I think one on here believes that a vast majority of the regular posters don’t have a clue about stats or advanced metrics at all. This same individual tends to get in arguments constantly over the same things over and over again, and he basically reguratates the same argument over and over not responding to direct questions or challenges.
Another group of folks tend to argue with this one constantly making him look ignorant and wrong.
Amazingly enough, the main 2 from the second group know more about stats and advanced metrics then the lone wolf. And the lone wolf blathers on about logic….
Most folks on here aren’t anti-stats or anti-advanced metrics, most folks are just the anti-lone wolf.
Ship Heyward to AAA (Rob from SC)
May 31st, 2012
5:51 pm
Also…what does Gearrin need to do to earn a callup.
VaBravesFan
May 31st, 2012
5:52 pm
Only way Heyward is gonna get better is by playing, hell he’s produced just as much as McCann.
kenhotlanta
May 31st, 2012
5:52 pm
Saw WAR 3 or 4 times back in the day…they always put on a great show.
Murph
May 31st, 2012
5:52 pm
Failing to get to balls that other leftfielders would catch means nothing.
We finally agree on something.
If a fielder has great range and can get to the ball but doesn’t catch it, what good does that do him? I’ll answer for you… it does him no good as his Fielding % just dropped and so did his asking price when it’s time to negotiate a new deal.
Soriano has caught every ball he’s chased down, and that’s good enough for me. Let the CF worry about the ones that are out of your reach and you’ll laugh all the way to the bank.
nolie
May 31st, 2012
5:59 pm
I was just kidding with the sweeping “ambulance chasers” statement CraZy. some of me best friends are
lawyers…well maybe I canint go that far…..McFann :Ô: :Ô:
May 31st, 2012
5:59 pm
VaBravesFan—
You’ve really been on BMac’s case lately, haven’t you?…
Bay Area Steve
May 31st, 2012
6:02 pm
“the main 2 from the second group know more about stats and advanced metrics then the lone wolf”
Agree with the whole post, flange.
And, I think what frustrates me most of all, is that I could learn so much if Shaun would respectfully respond to the two you speak of. If there was a true back and forth that evolved past this same stage we arrive at EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. No Shaun treats them like he treats us all. So frustrating. ‘Tis why I wish for more of Danga, and George Stein, and Steve from OH.
kenhotlanta
May 31st, 2012
6:03 pm
Regarding Harry’s Law cancellation, it’s happened before: In 1970, “Fred Silverman, the creative genius who gave the world Supertrain, had been installed as head of programming at CBS and he had decided that the network looked too rednecky. As a result, these shows were all immediately canceled: Beverly Hillbillies, Green Acres, Hee Haw, The Glenn Campbell Goodtime Hour, The Jim Nabors Show, and the spinoff of Andy Griffith called Mayberry RFD. In truth, a number of other shows that featured few trees on the set were also canceled that fateful year, including Hogan’s Heroes, The Ed Sullivan Show, To Rome with Love, and Family Affair.”
Many of those shows are fondly remembered today, but I personally never enjoyed Hogan’s Heroes…the subject matter just wasn’t funny then or now, and Bob Crane was a sick creep in real life.
Flatbill Kid
May 31st, 2012
6:06 pm
Mlbtr says all cubs expect smardjia, however that’s spelled, are available. Think we have any interest in them? Castro is a beast and could be had along with garza and dempster. Thoughts?
Shaun
May 31st, 2012
6:06 pm
Murph, right. But Soriano not getting to a ball is about as bad as an error (maybe worse, depending on how many bases the runner gets out of it). So Soriano can have a perfect fielding percentage even if he fails to reach that many balls. While someone like Brett Gardner could be all over the field and end up fielding more balls per chances and, even if he makes a few more errors, is going to convert more outs for his team.
It seems for some reason like you are assuming a fielder with better range than Soriano is automatically going to miss balls outside of Soriano’s range. Why?
Say a fielder catches every ball inside of Soriano’s range, catches plenty outside of Soriano’s range and also misses a few. If he’s converting batted balls in to outs more often, even if he’s made a few more errors, he’s leading to more outs than Soriano.
Regardless of whether the centerfielder is picking up the slack, Soriano’s range and his range alone is going to matter to a team when it’s time to negotiate a new deal (if you can keep a straight face while we imagine that Soriano is going to be negotiating a new deal).
Lew
May 31st, 2012
6:07 pm
Shaun – Folks like me? You mean intelligent, knowlegable baseball fans with over fifty years of experience watching every game I could possibly watch either on tv or such places as Philadelphia, Atlanta, Boston, Toronto, Montreal, Cooperstown and more spring training sites than I care to think about?
And yeah, the ping pong ball thing sounds about right. The results would be about as meaningful as your made up metric. And yeah, I DO mean made up.
nolie
May 31st, 2012
6:07 pm
BAS I’m not totally certain that Shaun actually knows enough about those stats to take a discussion further. maybe I’m wrong, but several things he has said over the years make me wonder abit
Ship Heyward to AAA (Rob from SC)
May 31st, 2012
6:08 pm
In all seriousness, Heyward needs to stand on top of the plate like Freeman. Right now he is giving up both sides of the plate.
nolie
May 31st, 2012
6:09 pm
Castro is even fielding better this season than he used to. he would be a great pickup but would prolly take more than our depleted system could provide compared to what some others might offer
Ship Heyward to AAA (Rob from SC)
May 31st, 2012
6:09 pm
Castro has legal issues…Makes you wonder
nolie
May 31st, 2012
6:10 pm
how can you give up both sides of a plate?
Ship Heyward to AAA (Rob from SC)
May 31st, 2012
6:11 pm
nolie
Would you trade Heyward and Teheran for Castro?
Ship Heyward to AAA (Rob from SC)
May 31st, 2012
6:11 pm
nolie
He can’t hit the inside pitch, and since he stands so far away, he chases pitches off the plate.
nolie
May 31st, 2012
6:12 pm
probably not, but its a lot closer decision than it once was
CrαZy
May 31st, 2012
6:12 pm
Most folks on here aren’t anti-stats or anti-advanced metrics, most folks are just the anti-lone wolf.
Some understand the stats they just don’t want to discuss the importance or use of those stats over and over and over again. I’ll admit I don’t completely understand how some of those stats are reached, but I understand how many of them are used by people that know more about baseball than I. I’d probably engage more often in those discussions if 99.9% of the time they weren’t started by someone who used arrogance as a tool to appear knowledgeable. .
Bobby B
May 31st, 2012
6:13 pm
Only way Heyward is gonna get better is by playing, hell he’s produced just as much as McCann.
The only option I have is I rarely see Heyward interviewed after the game for his contributions in a win. I see other Braves interviewed after a win because their at bats produce runs that are part of the Braves wins. Heyward rarely is part of the interviews and the wins. I’m not talking about Heyward hitting a Homerun and driving in 3 runs when the team wins by 7 runs.
Stats are pretty things and shiny things to look at, but after a game I’m looking for those stars of the game that were actually responsible for the team winning. Heyward needs to make more appearances in those. Keep the stats for those fantasy leagues and give me some wins instead because of the stats.
Murph
May 31st, 2012
6:13 pm
Shaun, normally I’d continue along, trying to get you to devote 8+ paragraphs to the subject before I busted out laughing, but alas, ’tis time to go home. And since you were nice and didn’t attack me I won’t even laugh.
It’s pretty safe to assume that, if I’m making any proclamations about stats, I’m either quoting someone else or am trolling out of boredom.
I don’t do stats.
ChattTownBrian (CTB)
May 31st, 2012
6:14 pm
Simmons will be a bust. All mexicans cannot play basball. He and Braves finish 6th in the division. Bank on that!
Murph
May 31st, 2012
6:14 pm
CraZy, did you see what I did there?
I replaced “you gotta believe” with “It’s pretty safe to assume…”.
Adjustment, made. Check.
CrαZy
May 31st, 2012
6:15 pm
He can’t hit the inside pitch
I don’t think that’s all he’s currently having trouble with.
nolie
May 31st, 2012
6:15 pm
Shaun wasn’t always like that. Perhaps the frustration of not being able to convert more peeps into true believers has altered his approach
Mitchie-sand
May 31st, 2012
6:15 pm
“ration”
I think some bartering with your non-imbibing comrades is in order. You can buy the smokes. And, well done timing the day off with month-end. Fortuitous, indeed. THE BAS
HAHAHA, you tought me a new word. “imbibing”. I cant wait to throw that out next time Im out with the guys. Ill give you credit.
Ship Heyward to AAA (Rob from SC)
May 31st, 2012
6:16 pm
Atlanta Braves Skid over, but now important work begins for Braves
3:12 pm May 30, 2012, by David O’Brien
(more…) .ShareThisPrint
..1,993 comments Add your commentVaBravesFan
May 31st, 2012
4:58 pm
I can’t get into all the WAR, UZR, and so on.
LinkReport this comment.nolie
May 31st, 2012
5:00 pm
all stats as predictors are about regression regression regression
LinkReport this comment.nolie
May 31st, 2012
5:00 pm
I used an UZI in my last WAR
LinkReport this comment.Shaun
May 31st, 2012
5:00 pm
Lew, “make up”? It sounds as if you think people are putting ping-pong balls in a machine and seeing what it spits out to determine a player’s WAR. You do realize that calculating WAR is a thoughtful and deliberate process, right?
I’m actually not so sure what you and folks like you think. I mean do you really think people would work on ways to measure a player’s overall value without putting a ton of thought and research and deliberation in to it? It’s almost as if you think WAR and any other “sabermetric” number exists just to rile up everyone and disprove everyone else wrong about the game. Do you really think someone would come up with such an elaborate calculation just for that and not because they actually have a desire to measure player value? That maybe this whole WAR thing and “sabermetrics” isn’t a conspiracy against folks like you, and that it’s not about you and those like you? It’s about trying to gain as much knowledge about players’ overall values as possible?
LinkReport this comment.CrαZy
May 31st, 2012
5:02 pm
I used an UZI in my last WAR
That’s good
LinkReport this comment.nolie
May 31st, 2012
5:03 pm
thought, research and deliberation don’t prove anything. lotsa folk put all three into betting systems for example and go flat broke…..
LinkReport this comment.nolie
May 31st, 2012
5:05 pm
you mean theoretical knowledge Shaun
LinkReport this comment.faninva
May 31st, 2012
5:07 pm
Lew – you should write a book. good stuff.
LinkReport this comment.phil
May 31st, 2012
5:07 pm
You can’t reason with Shaun…
Give up.
Thought, research and deliberation just went into that Edwards’ trial that cost millions of dollars….
End result?
LinkReport this comment.George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:08 pm
If y’all have criticisms for the advanced metrics, I’m fine with that. But you need to complete the thought and offer the reasons you think they’re flawed. I’m not fine with with criticisms that end with you saying “the stat isn’t perfect.” You have to tell me why.
LinkReport this comment.raleighbravefan
May 31st, 2012
5:08 pm
nolie – I loved Harry also. That’s the problem…second highest rated show on NBC…but only we old f@rts watched it. Advertisers hate old f@rts. Of course, that was kinda the whole point of the show…
LinkReport this comment.Shaun
May 31st, 2012
5:09 pm
Have any of you anti-WAR or anti-sabermetric folks ever considered looking into things from the side of the folks who’ve actually done the research and the dirty work? Perhaps if you would be willing to do that, you would understand that sabermetrics isn’t actually some conspiracy.
Hey, look out, everyone! NAFTA and WAR are conspiracies towards a New World Order, a one-world government, advanced by the Illuminati, the Freemasons and the Bilderberg Group and Bill James. I read about it in Nostradamus’ works.
LinkReport this comment.faninva
May 31st, 2012
5:10 pm
if Kerry had won in 04, guess ambulance chaser boy would still be in office…then again, maybe not.
LinkReport this comment.Mitchie-sand
May 31st, 2012
5:10 pm
Hello everyone. I actually have a chance to be on the ole blog! Its midnight and Im off tomorrow so Im doing my best Bay Area Steve impression.
LinkReport this comment.cricket
May 31st, 2012
5:10 pm
Harry was a defender that pretty much never lost, no matter the circumstances, woulda got the same result..one of the reasons i stopped DVRing it
LinkReport this comment.Mitchie-sand
May 31st, 2012
5:10 pm
*see whiskey
LinkReport this comment.raleighbravefan
May 31st, 2012
5:11 pm
I really like WAR…”All Day Music” is my favorite, followed by “Why Can’t We Be Friends?”. War was better than the Animals, who weren’t bad either.
LinkReport this comment.nolie
May 31st, 2012
5:11 pm
any lawyer David E Kelley ever created coulda done better than that.
LinkReport this comment.phil
May 31st, 2012
5:12 pm
Shaun = George Stein
LinkReport this comment.VaBravesFan
May 31st, 2012
5:14 pm
Everyone has an opinion or view on things. You don’t have to keep rambling on and on and on about.
LinkReport this comment.nolie
May 31st, 2012
5:14 pm
it wasn’t really about win or lose though they did lose some, any more than Boston Legal was
LinkReport this comment.Murph
May 31st, 2012
5:14 pm
OPS and Fielding % are the only two stats that matter.
LinkReport this comment.Shaun
May 31st, 2012
5:15 pm
phil, yes, it’s a shame to be compared to someone who actually would like something more convincing than just “the stat isn’t perfect.” I’m just disappointed to be compared to someone who actually wants folks to build a rationale case instead of just “it’s no good because it’s no good” essentially because “I said so.”
LinkReport this comment.faninva
May 31st, 2012
5:15 pm
spill the wine..take that pearl.
LinkReport this comment.nolie
May 31st, 2012
5:15 pm
The Practice was a bit more about win or lose I think
LinkReport this comment.phil
May 31st, 2012
5:15 pm
George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:08 pm
If y’all have criticisms for the advanced metrics, I’m fine with that. But you need to complete the thought and offer the reasons you think they’re flawed. I’m not fine with with criticisms that end with you saying “the stat isn’t perfect.” You have to tell me why.
************
But seriously, I don’t know enough about it to intelligently, or even stupidly, talk much about WAR.
I have kids to raise, work to do, etc, and BA, HR, RBI, OBP, OPS and slugging % work well enough for my limited purposes.
It’s not my job to make baseball decisions. It’s my job to gripe, moan, whine, complain, sometimes praise and ceaselessly b*tch about them….
LinkReport this comment.Bay Area Steve
May 31st, 2012
5:16 pm
Atta boy, Mitch. Let there be smooth whiskey and plentiful air conditioning for your day off.
LinkReport this comment.DAP
May 31st, 2012
5:17 pm
george stien I’m not fine with with criticisms that end with you saying “the stat isn’t perfect.” You have to tell me why
i did. others have. lots of times. still the same reasons as always.
LinkReport this comment.George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:17 pm
Right, Phil. I think we’ve played this game before.
LinkReport this comment.nolie
May 31st, 2012
5:17 pm
and doing a damn fine job too phil……….
LinkReport this comment.ncgary
May 31st, 2012
5:17 pm
go braves
if we sign franco and moyer
we could probably be the only franchise to have a 50 plus hitter drive in the winning rbi
for a 50 year old winning pitcher, it would probably only take 3 or 4 seasons to make it happen
LinkReport this comment.Shaun
May 31st, 2012
5:18 pm
Alfonso Soriano is among the best fielders in baseball this season, what, with his 1.000 fielding percentage.
LinkReport this comment.Bay Area Steve
May 31st, 2012
5:18 pm
There were at least four distinct criticisms of WAR on the last page, if I’m remembering right. None of which were addressed. As they never are, here, for what must be the 762nd time we’ve had this discussion.
phil, Shaun is not George. Mr. Stein is a reasonable man.
LinkReport this comment.George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:19 pm
Fair enough, DAP. I don’t read this blog particularly often anymore because the level of discourse is so low.
You do make me chuckle, phil.
LinkReport this comment.CrαZy
May 31st, 2012
5:19 pm
Am I the only one that pictures the Shaunster as the crazy hair guy on the Science channel?
LinkReport this comment.George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:20 pm
I think he knows that, Bay Area Steve. It’s a joke.
But seriously, calling someone reasonable around these parts can get you hurt.
LinkReport this comment.CrαZy
May 31st, 2012
5:20 pm
Shaun = Crazy hair alien guy on the Science channel.
LinkReport this comment.Bay Area Steve
May 31st, 2012
5:21 pm
George,
Do you know of a Braves public forum which is better?
LinkReport this comment.Shaun
May 31st, 2012
5:21 pm
DAP, WAR should not simply be discounted because its scale starts with a theoretical replacement level player. Just because the replacement level player may be theoretical doesn’t mean it’s not a well-thought through baseline for zero on the scale of major league value. Theoretical doesn’t automatically negate the entire calculation.
LinkReport this comment.CrαZy
May 31st, 2012
5:22 pm
OPS and Fielding % are the only two stats that matter.—Murph
“I gotta believe” others are important as well… RBI’s are important right?
LinkReport this comment.DAP
May 31st, 2012
5:25 pm
shaun should not simply be discounted because its scale starts with a theoretical replacement level player.
i made sure to mention in my first post on the subject that i dont totally discount WAR, only that im skeptical of it. i think its totally appropriate for me to take that stance based on some of the inexact methods of ascribing value to players (UZR was mentioned as one, as well as the fictitious replacement player that team may or may not have.)
LinkReport this comment.George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:27 pm
There are a handful, but I don’t make a habit of posting, BAS.
The thing with the advanced metrics is to remain critical of them. I think, in general, they are better than average, home runs, and RBI. But if we stay critical, we can add more value that would make them even more accurate.
And if all else fails, be a slave to OBP.
LinkReport this comment.VaBravesFan
May 31st, 2012
5:29 pm
I value OBP the most. Always look at BB/K rates alot too.
LinkReport this comment.raleighbravefan
May 31st, 2012
5:30 pm
Yeah, lawyers are “ambulance chasers…until you have been harmed by no fault of your own. The little girl who made Edwards famous litterly had the intestines syphoned out of her body by a faulty pool drain (cover was left off). She will never be the same, but will live the rest of her life with expensive medical problems. Not glorigying Edwards, by any means, but real people are hurt and killed by real neglegence, or malpractice, or drunk drivers, or…If you are for people taking personally taking responsibilities for their actions, you should applaude those who hold them accountable. Frivilous lawsuit is often in the eyes of the beholder.
LinkReport this comment.Murph
May 31st, 2012
5:31 pm
CraZy, you gotta believe that if I were to make a proclamation about which stats matter that I gotta believe I’ve done the research.
Shaun, that’s right, Alfonso Soriano is one of the best LF in the game right now. Has he dropped any balls that have been hit to him? No. Has he thrown any into the stands? No. That makes him pretty darn good in my book.
LinkReport this comment.George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:31 pm
Bingo, VaBravesFan. If a guy is walking more than he strikes out, there’s a 100% chance he’s really friggin’ good.
LinkReport this comment.Bay Area Steve
May 31st, 2012
5:31 pm
“There are a handful”
Might you list them?
As to the rest of your post, I think the vast majority here would entirely agree with it.
LinkReport this comment.raleighbravefan
May 31st, 2012
5:33 pm
Gotta go. Later, my friends.
LinkReport this comment.cricket
May 31st, 2012
5:34 pm
only OBP? no slugging?
LinkReport this comment.VaBravesFan
May 31st, 2012
5:35 pm
Jason Heyward has walked 13% of the time in his career, while Chipper has walked 14% of the time. Not to shabby.
LinkReport this comment.brian
May 31st, 2012
5:35 pm
raleigh – edwards did represent some people who needed help but he also made a good bit of his money using junk science. He sued OBs out the wazoo for CP, etc. with the argument that they should have had a C-section. He had a smooth talking OB and he would charm the jury. He continued doing this even after research showed that most babies with CP had issues in utero that made the labor difficult. It did not matter what the national association of OBs said, etc., he just sweet talked the jury and got lottery type awards
LinkReport this comment.George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:35 pm
Talking Chop has some decent stuff and Capitol Avenue Club are two that I like. They have a few bright writers and several posters who offer good insight.
Also, follow Frediot on Twitter to get a laugh during games.
LinkReport this comment.Bay Area Steve
May 31st, 2012
5:36 pm
Thank you, George.
LinkReport this comment.brian
May 31st, 2012
5:36 pm
Edwards did some good with cases but was also the classic ambulance chaser, but he was exceptionally good at what he did. I was in Raleigh after he was elected to the Senate and doctors there were more than happy to have him in Washington
LinkReport this comment.VaBravesFan
May 31st, 2012
5:37 pm
cricket
I value all stats to a certain extent, but I think OBP is king.
LinkReport this comment.Mitchie-sand
May 31st, 2012
5:37 pm
BAS, luckily the AC is flowing right now, but the whiskey is running low. We have a “ration” on how much we can purchase a month. The end of the month always gets sketchy… good thing tomorrow its the 1st out here.
LinkReport this comment.phil
May 31st, 2012
5:37 pm
George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:19 pm
Fair enough, DAP.I don’t read this blog particularly often anymore because the level of discourse is so low.
*************
That’s not accurate. It can often be lower, when I’m around and plenty of others, but there’s plenty of good stuff on here for a know it all like you, George…
LinkReport this comment.Mitchie-sand
May 31st, 2012
5:38 pm
Actually its the first as of 37 minutes ago…
LinkReport this comment.George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:38 pm
If you only can choose one, cricket, choose OBP.
No prob, BAS.
LinkReport this comment.George Stein
May 31st, 2012
5:38 pm
You rarely disappoint, phil.
LinkReport this comment.phil
May 31st, 2012
5:40 pm
brian – Your 5:35 is just the chamber of commerce talking. You don’t have even a remote clue what you’re talking about.
Stick to something you do understand, whatever it might be.
LinkReport this comment.Bay Area Steve
May 31st, 2012
5:43 pm
“ration”
I think some bartering with your non-imbibing comrades is in order. You can buy the smokes. And, well done timing the day off with month-end. Fortuitous, indeed.
LinkReport this comment.Shaun
May 31st, 2012
5:45 pm
Murph, yes. Failing to get to balls that other leftfielders would catch means nothing. It’s only about catching the balls that come directly to the fielder, no matter how little he has to move. Let’s just ignore all those other batted balls that a fielder doesn’t have the range to even touch, even if most fielders would snag it.
LinkReport this comment.McFann :Ô: :Ô:
May 31st, 2012
5:45 pm
I hardly go on CAC anymore…I don’t like the new design…
LinkReport this comment.faninva
May 31st, 2012
5:46 pm
raleighbravefan – I meant no disrespect. you’re right, they are there if you need them, only i am afraid there are many who’s only goal is to file frivolous law suits that clog up our courts and make it harder for people with real issues get the justice they need. I’m sorry, but Edwards just has that stereotypical ambulance chaser “charm” about him – just strikes me as sleazy.
LinkReport this comment.VaBravesFan
May 31st, 2012
5:47 pm
OBP values walks, which is an indicator of plate discipline. That’s why I think its one of the top stats.
LinkReport this comment.Ship Heyward to AAA (Rob from SC)
May 31st, 2012
5:48 pm
Braves should send Heyward down when Chipper comes off DL
LinkReport this comment.flange1
May 31st, 2012
5:51 pm
George Stein,
I think one on here believes that a vast majority of the regular posters don’t have a clue about stats or advanced metrics at all. This same individual tends to get in arguments constantly over the same things over and over again, and he basically reguratates the same argument over and over not responding to direct questions or challenges.
Another group of folks tend to argue with this one constantly making him look ignorant and wrong.
Amazingly enough, the main 2 from the second group know more about stats and advanced metrics then the lone wolf. And the lone wolf blathers on about logic….
Most folks on here aren’t anti-stats or anti-advanced metrics, most folks are just the anti-lone wolf.
LinkReport this comment.Ship Heyward to AAA (Rob from SC)
May 31st, 2012
5:51 pm
Also…what does Gearrin need to do to earn a callup.
LinkReport this comment.VaBravesFan
May 31st, 2012
5:52 pm
Only way Heyward is gonna get better is by playing, hell he’s produced just as much as McCann.
LinkReport this comment.kenhotlanta
May 31st, 2012
5:52 pm
Saw WAR 3 or 4 times back in the day…they always put on a great show.
LinkReport this comment.Murph
May 31st, 2012
5:52 pm
Failing to get to balls that other leftfielders would catch means nothing.
We finally agree on something.
If a fielder has great range and can get to the ball but doesn’t catch it, what good does that do him? I’ll answer for you… it does him no good as his Fielding % just dropped and so did his asking price when it’s time to negotiate a new deal.
Soriano has caught every ball he’s chased down, and that’s good enough for me. Let the CF worry about the ones that are out of your reach and you’ll laugh all the way to the bank.
LinkReport this comment.nolie
May 31st, 2012
5:59 pm
I was just kidding with the sweeping “ambulance chasers” statement CraZy. some of me best friends are lawyers…well maybe I canint go that far…..
LinkReport this comment.McFann :Ô: :Ô:
May 31st, 2012
5:59 pm
VaBravesFan—
You’ve really been on BMac’s case lately, haven’t you?…
LinkReport this comment.Bay Area Steve
May 31st, 2012
6:02 pm
“the main 2 from the second group know more about stats and advanced metrics then the lone wolf”
Agree with the whole post, flange.
And, I think what frustrates me most of all, is that I could learn so much if Shaun would respectfully respond to the two you speak of. If there was a true back and forth that evolved past this same stage we arrive at EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. No Shaun treats them like he treats us all. So frustrating. ‘Tis why I wish for more of Danga, and George Stein, and Steve from OH.
LinkReport this comment.kenhotlanta
May 31st, 2012
6:03 pm
Regarding Harry’s Law cancellation, it’s happened before: In 1970, “Fred Silverman, the creative genius who gave the world Supertrain, had been installed as head of programming at CBS and he had decided that the network looked too rednecky. As a result, these shows were all immediately canceled: Beverly Hillbillies, Green Acres, Hee Haw, The Glenn Campbell Goodtime Hour, The Jim Nabors Show, and the spinoff of Andy Griffith called Mayberry RFD. In truth, a number of other shows that featured few trees on the set were also canceled that fateful year, including Hogan’s Heroes, The Ed Sullivan Show, To Rome with Love, and Family Affair.”
Many of those shows are fondly remembered today, but I personally never enjoyed Hogan’s Heroes…the subject matter just wasn’t funny then or now, and Bob Crane was a sick creep in real life.
LinkReport this comment.Flatbill Kid
May 31st, 2012
6:06 pm
Mlbtr says all cubs expect smardjia, however that’s spelled, are available. Think we have any interest in them? Castro is a beast and could be had along with garza and dempster. Thoughts?
LinkReport this comment.Shaun
May 31st, 2012
6:06 pm
Murph, right. But Soriano not getting to a ball is about as bad as an error (maybe worse, depending on how many bases the runner gets out of it). So Soriano can have a perfect fielding percentage even if he fails to reach that many balls. While someone like Brett Gardner could be all over the field and end up fielding more balls per chances and, even if he makes a few more errors, is going to convert more outs for his team.
It seems for some reason like you are assuming a fielder with better range than Soriano is automatically going to miss balls outside of Soriano’s range. Why?
Say a fielder catches every ball inside of Soriano’s range, catches plenty outside of Soriano’s range and also misses a few. If he’s converting batted balls in to outs more often, even if he’s made a few more errors, he’s leading to more outs than Soriano.
Regardless of whether the centerfielder is picking up the slack, Soriano’s range and his range alone is going to matter to a team when it’s time to negotiate a new deal (if you can keep a straight face while we imagine that Soriano is going to be negotiating a new deal).
LinkReport this comment.Lew
May 31st, 2012
6:07 pm
Shaun – Folks like me? You mean intelligent, knowlegable baseball fans with over fifty years of experience watching every game I could possibly watch either on tv or such places as Philadelphia, Atlanta, Boston, Toronto, Montreal, Cooperstown and more spring training sites than I care to think about?
And yeah, the ping pong ball thing sounds about right. The results would be about as meaningful as your made up metric. And yeah, I DO mean made up.
LinkReport this comment.nolie
May 31st, 2012
6:07 pm
BAS I’m not totally certain that Shaun actually knows enough about those stats to take a discussion further. maybe I’m wrong, but several things he has said over the years make me wonder abit
LinkReport this comment.Ship Heyward to AAA (Rob from SC)
May 31st, 2012
6:08 pm
In all seriousness, Heyward needs to stand on top of the plate like Freeman. Right now he is giving up both sides of the plate.
LinkReport this comment.nolie
May 31st, 2012
6:09 pm
Castro is even fielding better this season than he used to. he would be a great pickup but would prolly take more than our depleted system could provide compared to what some others might offer
LinkReport this comment.Ship Heyward to AAA (Rob from SC)
May 31st, 2012
6:09 pm
Castro has legal issues…Makes you wonder
LinkReport this comment.nolie
May 31st, 2012
6:10 pm
how can you give up both sides of a plate?
LinkReport this comment.Ship Heyward to AAA (Rob from SC)
May 31st, 2012
6:11 pm
nolie
Would you trade Heyward and Teheran for Castro?
LinkReport this comment.Ship Heyward to AAA (Rob from SC)
May 31st, 2012
6:11 pm
nolie
He can’t hit the inside pitch, and since he stands so far away, he chases pitches off the plate.
LinkReport this comment.nolie
May 31st, 2012
6:12 pm
probably not, but its a lot closer decision than it once was
LinkReport this comment.CrαZy
May 31st, 2012
6:12 pm
Most folks on here aren’t anti-stats or anti-advanced metrics, most folks are just the anti-lone wolf.
Some understand the stats they just don’t want to discuss the importance or use of those stats over and over and over again. I’ll admit I don’t completely understand how some of those stats are reached, but I understand how many of them are used by people that know more about baseball than I. I’d probably engage more often in those discussions if 99.9% of the time they weren’t started by someone who used arrogance as a tool to appear knowledgeable. .
LinkReport this comment.Bobby B
May 31st, 2012
6:13 pm
Only way Heyward is gonna get better is by playing, hell he’s produced just as much as McCann.
The only option I have is I rarely see Heyward interviewed after the game for his contributions in a win. I see other Braves interviewed after a win because their at bats produce runs that are part of the Braves wins. Heyward rarely is part of the interviews and the wins. I’m not talking about Heyward hitting a Homerun and driving in 3 runs when the team wins by 7 runs.
Stats are pretty things and shiny things to look at, but after a game I’m looking for those stars of the game that were actually responsible for the team winning. Heyward needs to make more appearances in those. Keep the stats for those fantasy leagues and give me some wins instead because of the stats.
LinkReport this comment.Murph
May 31st, 2012
6:13 pm
Shaun, normally I’d continue along, trying to get you to devote 8+ paragraphs to the subject before I busted out laughing, but alas, ’tis time to go home. And since you were nice and didn’t attack me I won’t even laugh.
It’s pretty safe to assume that, if I’m making any proclamations about stats, I’m either quoting someone else or am trolling out of boredom.
I don’t do stats.
LinkReport this comment.ChattTownBrian (CTB)
May 31st, 2012
6:14 pm
Simmons will be a bust. All mexicans cannot play basball. He and Braves finish 6th in the division. Bank on that!
LinkReport this comment.Murph
May 31st, 2012
6:14 pm
CraZy, did you see what I did there?
I replaced “you gotta believe” with “It’s pretty safe to assume…”.
Adjustment, made. Check.
LinkReport this comment.CrαZy
May 31st, 2012
6:15 pm
He can’t hit the inside pitch
I don’t think that’s all he’s currently having trouble with.
He can’t hit most pitches
ChattTownBrian (CTB)
May 31st, 2012
6:17 pm
Ya’ll are in love with Shaun. Just ignore him. Ever female he encounters does.
Ship Heyward to AAA (Rob from SC)
May 31st, 2012
6:17 pm
Sorry Guys
Als, Simmons is not Mexican
CrαZy
May 31st, 2012
6:17 pm
Very nice!! It’s all about the adjustments!!
Ship Heyward to AAA (Rob from SC)
May 31st, 2012
6:17 pm
Nolie
Heyward for Castro straight up?
VaBravesFan
May 31st, 2012
6:19 pm
McFann
Well atleast I think he’s a good defender and isn’t fat… It’s a fact that he and Heyward have produced just about the same. Him having the flu, yes I made a few jokes but it was all fun. For his contract and the Braves going forward I just keep it real when giving my opinion on that.
nolie
May 31st, 2012
6:20 pm
I’m not sure how many of all those comments (other than mine of course) were worth repeating……
ChattTownBrian (CTB)
May 31st, 2012
6:21 pm
“Heyward for Castro straight up”
I’d trade Heyward for a pair of Castro’s dirty socks at this point. Subject to change though. Crazy game, player can turn it on and make you believe he’s the next Aaron.
CrαZy
May 31st, 2012
6:21 pm
Any Idea who gets sent down from Gwinnett or cut for now that Pastornicky is back in AAA??
nolie
May 31st, 2012
6:22 pm
Get thee behind me Satan(Rob)…..
Lew
May 31st, 2012
6:23 pm
Crazy – Had they replaced Constanza yet?
CrαZy
May 31st, 2012
6:24 pm
I doubt the Cubs would EVER consider trading Castro!! Unless the Braves offered Gattis straight up for Castro….. but the Braves aren’t that dumb!!