3:12 pm May 30, 2012, by David O'Brien
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
May 31st, 20124:08 pm
Quite a few umps throw the ball back to the pitcher themselves—what does Russell Martin do when one of them is back there? Politely ask them to please let him do it?…
Our line-up is hurt by having a clean-up hitter who cant stay healthy to play everyday (McCann).
McCann doesn’t bat cleanup anymore. And good lord, anybody could get a horrid case of the flu…
May 31st, 20124:09 pm
May 31st, 20124:10 pm
and had hit as well as you might have expected (and better than Gonzalez did)…Zing”his numbers were much worse than Gonzo’s were even last year
Most reasonable people are convinced by data or a compelling argument made with evidence and/or logic.
Of course, they are. Your problem is that you sometimes fail to see the fallacies in the arguments you make, even when pointed out clearly and distinctly, and thus fail to see that such a flawed argument is less than compelling. This failure, both in argument and logic, leaves you not only completely unable to convince but also unable to view your argument from a different perspective….a perspective that might give you the opportunity to correct the argument’s fallacies and make it more persuasive.
Now, that’s a forensics diagnosis. It is not a personal attack, and it has nothing to do with whatever position on whatever issue you might take. But it has everything to do with the eventual degradation of most of your conversations here into something less than we would all prefer. Just think about it a little, is all I’m asking.
May 31st, 20124:11 pm
What is the team going to do with Mejia? The guy is too good a hitter to just sit down in AAA forever.
There must be a team in the AL who wouldn’t mind him as their DH.
nd had hit as well as you might have expected (and better than Gonzalez did)…Zing
his numbers were much worse than Gonzo’s were, even last year
May 31st, 20124:12 pm
Nevermind I found it… So Heyward is still viewed good enough to get picked 30th?
If I had the 30th pick I’d trade up to avoid having to take him.
That made no sense.
May 31st, 20124:14 pm
what do you think they would get for an aging AAA player who in 7 years was never considered good enough to get even a cuppa joe in the bigs?
May 31st, 20124:15 pm
nolie – A coffee maker?
Is Mejia viewed as a younger version of Barbaro…
Jeff R, they haven’t been that far apart.
Lew, where is your detailed research and argument tearing WAR down piece-by-piece? Because I’ve seen the case to be made for WAR’s usefulness. I haven’t seen you build a reasonable case showing that WAR isn’t. Can you convince me of that? Probably not. Because a convincing case for something is not what you are concerned with. If it’s “esoteric” or “sabermetric” or the results don’t match your views, it’s no good. Never mind evidence, reason, historical correlations of certain data to scoring and preventing runs, etc.
May 31st, 20124:17 pm
the fact that there is more than one version of WAR, says a lot in and of itself
May 31st, 20124:18 pm
DOWN ON THE FARM
RHSP AARON NORTHCRAFT [L 4-4, 4.57 ERA] needs no help losing this one on his own as he gives up 8 H, 6 R/ER, 2 BB, and 7 SO in 5.0 IP. Well, the 7 SO was nice. Come on young man, tighten up.
LHRP MATT CHAFFEE [5.71 ERA] 2.0 IP, 2 H, zeros, 1 BB, 1 SO.
Lead-off MYC JONES [.232 BA] 1-4, 1 R, 1 SO.
3B ED SALCEDO [.253 BA] 1-3, 1 R, 1 2B , 1 SO.
C BRAEDEN SCHLEHUBER [.283 BA] 2-3, 1 R, 1 RBI .
2B TOMMY LaSTELLA [.289 BA] 1-3, 2 RBI .
LF ADAM MILLIGAN [.279 BA] 1-3. In the past four weeks, ADAM has brought his BA from the despair of .125 to a respectible level. Keep it up young man.
May 31st, 20124:21 pm
Jeff R, they [Heyward and Freeman] haven’t been that far apart.
That strains a little, Shaun.
“ets keep trying with this damn thing till someone gets it close to right”
May 31st, 20124:22 pm
Yes. That is proof that we should just completely throw it out and that no version of WAR has any use whatsoever. Sure.
How about the fact that most of the basic stats that people constantly cite don’t take into account everything that we should consider? Does that mean they should all, even the most useful of those, be thrown out and they have absolutely no use to anyone?
May 31st, 20124:23 pm
Not going to mention names, but some people are just lucky……
May 31st, 20124:25 pm
Just got home from work, has anyone posted any Keith Law question and answers?
WAR Freaks – just copy/paste your stat arguments from last year..and the year before that…and…then copy/paste to the I Don’t Give a Damn section of your local sports page.
so, who’s up for pizza?
Shaun – The only proof needed is that there are different forms of WAR and even your so called ecperts can’t agree on it. That alone should put it into question.
Add to that the fact that WTF does comparison to a AAA replacement prove about anything?
It’s time you realized that just because you can come up with an equation doesn’t mean it has any relevance or even that it proves what you hoped it would when you made it up. How you determine OBP is agreed upon by eveyone. So is Slugging % and OPS and so are Hits, Strike Outs, Walks or Home Runs given up per nine innings, or WHIP, or – for that matter another of your “meaningless stats – is Batting Average.
WAR? Not so much.
May 31st, 20124:27 pm
Can’t we agree that WAR has some usefulness, and that regular stats have some usefulness too?
Nobody’s going to convince the other side of anything.
there are raw stats and there are models made from them. I love stats, i am skeptical about the margin of error when you start adding a bunch on them together to get a model.
Speaking of which..
How’s the Lifetime Channel going? You sure ain’t blogging about the Braves. Any juicy women hate men stories on their blog?
May get you some divorce cases. Smart move, Counsellor. Keep passing out those cards.
I sure wish I was getting off work early enough tomorrow to see Simmons for the whole game. I’ll probably miss half of it.
Jeff R, not really. Last year, his worst season, Heyward had a 94 OPS+. Freeman had a 117. They are both at 113 for their careers. Freeman’s at 109 so far this season while Heyward is at 101. Freeman is a first baseman. Freeman provides solid defensive value. Heyward is one of the more valuable defensive right fielders.
Nothing wrong with having either of them, especially considering their costs. The Braves just need the rest of the offense to keep rolling, they could use another bench bat that can play a solid left field and/or third base, and they need to improve their run prevention.
faninva – Just picked up the new Tarot cd – you should check it out – The new Ram, also.
May 31st, 20124:28 pm
I need a set of over the ear Headphones and I’m WAY too cheap to buy a set of Bose or Beats by Dre. What’s a good set in the cheaper price range less than $50.
May 31st, 20124:29 pm
they are all ambulance chasers at heart Tater………
nolie – Thank You – much more succinct than what I said.
Where’s the duct tape? My head is going to explode!
MAKE LOVE, NOT WAR!
Wow, just wow.
WSB Radio @wsbradio
Breaking: John Edwards not guilty on one count. A mistrial declared on the other 5 counts.
May 31st, 2012
“…….Is Mejia viewed as a younger version of Barbaro…….”
Not by me.
He doesn’t hit for BARBARO’s power, but he has plenty, and he’s more consistant with his BA. The key to ERNESTO is his timely hitting. When the chips are down, he’s more apt to stroke a double, than whiff on an attempted HR. That plus his .993% fielding at 1B. He’s a legit prospect around the first sack, but he’s age dated at 26 this season. It’s pretty much now or never for MEJIA. By 2014, he’ll be 28, and his value to other clubs will have declined significantly. he should bring a significant player in return, and should FREEMAN have an extended injury at this point. He should see ATLANTA for the first time. He is not a FF caddy and a HINSKI replacement. i think the kid’s got the goods to be a starter in ML baseball.
Oh and CraZY, our man was sent to ROME, and is looking a bit dispirited at the plate and in the field. Look at the ROME lines from yesterday. I’ll have them up soon.
May 31st, 20124:30 pm
Wow is right…mm mm mm.
By himself? Not much. Packaged with, say, Minor and someone else? Someone almost decent.
May 31st, 20124:31 pm
Lew, you need some basis for comparison. You can’t just start at nothing because pretty much anyone would be better than having absolutely no shortstop or centerfielder or whatever. So you start with the baseline of a readily available player that can be plucked from Triple-A or from the 24th or 25th spot on a major league roster. It’s actually a pretty interesting concept that makes a lot of sense, if you are compelled by reason, which many aren’t. They are more concerned with their own views and what they think they know.
Amazon carries a lot of headphones Crazy, if it’s video I just look for the sales.
For instance: Last season Matt Kemp led the NL in WAR (Baseball Reference). He also led the league in HR, RBI, and R. All of the stats listed indicate that Kemp had a very good year.
May 31st, 20124:32 pm
it’s easier to attack your opponent than to attack your opponent’s argument, that way you don’t have to do any convincing by bringing in some evidence or reason.
Is this why you terms like “ignorant geezers”, and imply people are lacking in intelligence, insight, and reason?
Jimmy – That’s not a bad idea, but some here would still need an owner’s manual to pull it off and even then would have to invent an equation to try and prove that they even enjoyed love to begin with.
May 31st, 20124:33 pm
Shaun – Keep chasing those pink unicorns. Maybe they exist – in some plane of reality.
cue Nancy Grace.
May 31st, 20124:34 pm
Or we can just keep yelling at each other. That works too.
or Carl Rose. either will work.
I need a set of over the ear Headphones and I’m WAY too cheap
Don’t do it, man. Don’t go cheap. That’s my advice.
Sennheiser are pretty decent. JVC can be good for cheapos
As for thinking what you know Shaun – which form of WAR do you base that on?
May 31st, 20124:36 pm
thanks Lew. I’ll check it out. Is there a new WAR album on the way?
May 31st, 20124:37 pm
“Even at the end of the game after I get hit in the neck. I’m like, can I throw the ball back now? He’s still like no. I’m like you’re such a (expletive). Like for real. Unbelievable. I even told him like when there’s guys on base, I like to keep my arm loose.”
I’m like OMG it’s like Russell Martin in like a tiff with like an umpire.
May 31st, 20124:38 pm
Rich I saw that… I’m wondering if he’s considering asking for a change to pitcher… He was a real good pitcher in high school and I think he pitched some in Jr. College. He had a 90+ fastball at one time. Hope he gets to keep playing but this is year 4 and he’s had no improvement with strikeouts and is now back in low A. We shall see I guess!!!
fainva – Not that I’m aware of, but I DID see Eric Burdon and WAR back in 1970. War did a set by themselves – they were excellent – and then Burdon came out pouring a bottle of wine over his head and singing Spill The Wine. He was so screwed up he could barely stand – we got up and left
I even told him like when there’s guys on base, I like to keep my arm loose
Tongue’s pretty loose, too.
May 31st, 20124:39 pm
some ump will get him back
shaun, you have to admit, WAR is not something folks can really agree on. there are differnt ways to measure it and even the components that make it up are questionable, according to some. folks dont really even trust defensive metrics by themselves, not to mention when you wrap them up into another stat. i, personally, dont discount WAR, but im skeptical of it.
Last night I had a dream I was less than .001 grams. I was like 0mg!
I’m really excited about Simmons, didn’t expect the Braves to make the move.
May 31st, 20124:40 pm
jeffrey d, true but it’s not always going to be the case that the WAR leader is going to lead the league in HR, RBI and R. In order to lead the league in RBI, you need to have plenty of RBI opportunities.
Jacoby Ellsbury led the AL in one version of WAR last season and did not lead in any of the traditional Triple Crown categories. Does that mean we toss out WAR or do we actually consider the possibility that WAR is the better indicator of a player’s value? Well, many won’t even consider the possibility that WAR is the better indicator by investigating what WAR takes into account, and that’s simply because it’s “sabermetric” or “esoteric” or different from their views and preconceived notions of baseball.
May 31st, 20124:41 pm
Like, I know, right? He like, totally sounds like a teenage girl, lol!
Lew – guess that happens to many a rock star. Burdon was a genius songwriter though, at least that is what i think.
Lew – I’ve been on here for two seasons now (an offseasons) and this crap, umm debate, has been going on almost nonstop. Incredible to me.
I thought I knew something about baseball, but I’ve been instructed that RBIs don’t really measure anything, among other things.
And with no game to chew on tonight, the topic of the day is set.
Good taste vs. less filling. Measure that Shaun.
See you good folks later.
Problem is they’re for work and I won’t ever use them at home so I don’t want to spend big money on them!
May 31st, 20124:42 pm
Does it mena we toss out WAR? Works for me.
May 31st, 20124:43 pm
is it language or music?
May 31st, 20124:44 pm
Has Shaun even been on today? I must be doing better than I thought!
Problem is they’re for work
Oh. In that case, spend an amount appropriate to the amount of time you have to wear them. Wear ‘em all day? Spend up. An hour or two? Spend down.
Bay Area Steve
May 31st, 20124:45 pm
Have at it, brother. It’s appreciated.
DAP, why should we be skeptical of WAR over any other stat we use? I agree that it’s not perfect but I also think that it’s the best all-encompassing stat, even in it’s many forms.
faninva – Same thing happened with Traffic – Chris Wood was so falling down drunk that they played a half hour and then just left. Saw Greg Allman forget the lyrics and music to Sweet Melissa in concert one night, too.
Just always felt ripped off by things like that. I mean, what kind of rock star are you if you can’t handle your drugs, right?
May 31st, 20124:46 pm
R-BRAVES lose on a walk off HR by the home team in the bottom of the ninth 5-4. Ouch!
LF ROBBY HEFFLINGER [.200 BA] 0-3, 2 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 2 E [2 fielding, throw]. CraZy, tell the young man to maintain. Ya’ gotta’ believe. Minor’s baseball is a tough way to go.
Five errors and a ninth inning HR spell doom for the R-BRAVES.
CF TONY MUELLER [.236 BA] 2-2.
Lead-off SS ELMER REYES [.253 BA] 1-3, 2 SO.
RF WIL SKINNER [.260 BA] 2-4, 1 2B , 2 RBI , 1 SO, 1 Outfield Assist [3rd base].
DH 1B WILLIAM BECKWITH [.309 BA] 3-4, 1 2B .
RHSP RAFA BRICENO [6.23 ERA] 5.0 IP, 10 H, 4 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 SO, 1 E [1, throw].
RHRP JOHN CORNELY [L 0-3, 3.48 ERA] 2.0 IP, 2 H, 1 HR, 1 R/ER, 2 BB, 3 SO.
I followed the Edwards trial pretty closely…I sang at Elizabeth’s funeral (they were members of my church…I didn’t know them, but know plenty who did)
He turned out to be a pretty sorry husband, if not a dispicable SOB…but the charges were basically crap. Lower profile would have never been charged. Prosecution didn’t come close to making a case based on real law and provable facts.
May 31st, 20124:47 pm
I’ve been instructed that RBIs don’t really measure anything
uh oh, you are doomed for more lessons, wanted or not. Individual RBIs are meaningless. Team RBIs are good and complete credit for them has to go to the guys that get on base and score. RBI wh**es that drive them in are overrated overpaid pigs that should be publicly flogged.
Five yard penalty, TNPaul. Joke was too clean. Dirty it up, sir.
WAR is not a stat
I don’t see the problem with WAR as a tool for measuring player value. If you look at WAR lists for most any season, or all-time, the lists are pretty logical. (the alltime WAR list, for position players, btw, is Ruth, Bonds, Mays, Cobb, Aaron, Speaker, Wagner, Hornsby, Musial, Ted Williams. Seems pretty reasonable)
My sense is that it tends to over-value defense, or rather to assume too much about a player’s defense using UZR. I think UZR is a real fuzzy stat, and I think it plays a big part in WAR, so I take that with a grain of salt.
But overall, I don’t see the problem with it as a tool for comparison sake.
May 31st, 20124:48 pm
“It’s not perfect.” And no metric you ever make up ever will be.
May 31st, 20124:49 pm
cRaZy, these are not $50, but spend $100 and you get some really nice headphones that willlast you a long time. google sony mdr-7506.
i knew it wasn’t braves pitchers’ fault -
It’s gotta be the sea urchin.
That’s what Andrew Zimmern suggests helped break Brandon Phillips’ 24-game streak without a home run. Last week, the Cincinnati Reds second baseman hit two out of the park in a win over the Braves. Zimmern, the host of Bizarre Foods America on the Travel Channel, replied to an MLB Network tweet about the accomplishment with, “Nice work…sea urchin and octopus works.”
Brian from SC
Excellent point, nolie. WAR is a calculated metric based on multiple statistics. It shouldn’t really be used to “prove” anything. I find it interesting and useful because it attempts to encompass everything that happens for a player on the baseball field to come up with how well they’ve performed.
May 31st, 20124:50 pm
May 31st, 2012
WSB Radio @wsbradio
Breaking: John Edwards not guilty on one count. A mistrial declared on the other 5 counts.
Told ya an hour or more ago it was coming…
MikeInFl, I think DRS is better than UZR. DRS seems to factor in more variables.
He turned out to be a pretty sorry husband, if not a dispicable SOB
Sounds perfect… he should run for office again!!
May 31st, 20124:51 pm
I’ve generally found that UZR seems to fit what my eyes see better than DRS. I don’t know the math behind either of them.
Who wants a good tongue-lashing?!?
DAP — thank you
May 31st, 20124:52 pm
MikeinFl – It has more to do with how much credence you place in WAR – and some now believe it to be the be all and end all in baseball information. How can something that includes – as you readily agree – information of a doubtful nature, really tell you anything of value?
May 31st, 20124:54 pm
I am soo not a UZR fan, especially for less that 3 to 5 years. Even it’s creator says he is not sure it means anything. I prefer the Fielder’s Bible, but all should be taken with a grain of salt.
May 31st, 20124:55 pm
raleighbravesfan – a sad tale no matter how you look at it. You could see the acquital/mistrial coming from months away….as you said, weak, weak case.
People in general despise lawyers, and so be it, but our system is the best in the world for a reason, and this is just another example of it working, no matter how sorry the subject may be.
And thank God for our system of laws.
I don’t see the problem with WAR as a tool for measuring player value.
Yes, but measurement requires scale, scale that is easily recognizable in its graduations. For example, there are probably many here who are familiar with WAR as a value (saints preserve us, how could one not be?), but how many of those could tell the significance of a WAR difference between two players? Is a tenth significant? two-tenths? half-a-WAR?
My guess is, “not enough to make it count”. And so the interpretive data is compromised in its ability to inform.
May 31st, 20124:56 pm
shaun <you start with the baseline of a readily available player that can be plucked from Triple-A or from the 24th or 25th spot on a major league roster.
eh. not all rosters are created equal. to assume you can get any type of production from a player yanked up from AAA is just an educated guess.
why should we be skeptical of WAR over any other stat we use?
you know why. it uses an imaginary baseball player as a baseline. a person that doesnt exist, whos performance also changes year to year. a stat like batting average is not context dependent and we always know exactly what it is saying. there is no reason to be skeptical of a stat so straight forward.
I met Edwards once….
Very cold, dead eyes.
no kidding….probably a lot like Shaun, actually.
May 31st, 20124:58 pm
I’ve never even looked into WAR. Is it really this big of a deal?
Should I take the time to read up on it?
Well, from the fangraphs own description of UZR:
a player’s UZR, be it one year, one month or 5 years, is not necessarily what happened on the field and is not necessarily that player’s true talent level over that period of time either. That is why we regress, regress, and regress! A player can have a plus UZR and have played terrible defense, because the data we are using is far from perfect.
And that is one of several reasons why one year or even 10 years of UZR (or any other sample metric) does not give us a perfect estimate of a player’s true talent or even an accurate picture of what actually happened on the field.
Too many guys show as great defenders one year and horrible ones the next, according to UZR, for it to carry much weight in my book. But, I’m not declaring it useless… just seems highly questionable to me.
Harry woulda won it, but they went and cancelled her….
I can’t get into all the WAR, UZR, and so on.
May 31st, 20125:00 pm
all stats as predictors are about regression regression regression
I used an UZI in my last WAR
Lew, “make up”? It sounds as if you think people are putting ping-pong balls in a machine and seeing what it spits out to determine a player’s WAR. You do realize that calculating WAR is a thoughtful and deliberate process, right?
I’m actually not so sure what you and folks like you think. I mean do you really think people would work on ways to measure a player’s overall value without putting a ton of thought and research and deliberation in to it? It’s almost as if you think WAR and any other “sabermetric” number exists just to rile up everyone and disprove everyone else wrong about the game. Do you really think someone would come up with such an elaborate calculation just for that and not because they actually have a desire to measure player value? That maybe this whole WAR thing and “sabermetrics” isn’t a conspiracy against folks like you, and that it’s not about you and those like you? It’s about trying to gain as much knowledge about players’ overall values as possible?
May 31st, 20125:02 pm
May 31st, 20125:03 pm
thought, research and deliberation don’t prove anything. lotsa folk put all three into betting systems for example and go flat broke…..
May 31st, 20125:05 pm
you mean theoretical knowledge Shaun
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