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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
2,620 comments Add your comment
cabravesfan
April 16th, 2012
2:02 pm
Fish Bisch-
Glad I could help, but after 3 years here, I would hope that you would know that I’m female
TennesseePaul
April 16th, 2012
2:02 pm
so I guess you would be pretty shocked to see Freeman take a bit of a step back this season compared to last?
I don’t think he’ll have as awful of a sophomore season as Heyward had. And let me put it this way, if “most people” expect him to step back this year, then the consensuses would be “surprise” should he step forward. I will not be surprised to see him step forward this year. I expect, could be wrong, but I expect scoots has similar sentiments.
ncscoots
April 16th, 2012
2:02 pm
so I guess you would be pretty shocked to see Freeman take a bit of a step back this season compared to last? I don’t think most people would.
And what reasons for that occurrence do “most people” voice?
TennesseePaul
April 16th, 2012
2:04 pm
Fish, Cab = her, he
Ease
April 16th, 2012
2:06 pm
cab is a swell dude…
Fish Bisch
April 16th, 2012
2:06 pm
Sorry Cab, I’m used to saying he unless it’s obviously a female name. Please forgive me
TennesseePaul
April 16th, 2012
2:07 pm
her, he…
can’t type the greater than less than sign… so cab = her not he
Snotboogie
April 16th, 2012
2:08 pm
so I guess you would be pretty shocked to see Freeman take a bit of a step back this season compared to last? I don’t think most people would.
Spoken like a guy who never recognizes shades of grey.
cabravesfan
April 16th, 2012
2:14 pm
Fish Bisch-
Eh, not the first time someone here has confused me for a guy
No worries!
Mixxo
April 16th, 2012
2:14 pm
Cody Ross just got robbed blind.
K’s to end game. Rays win 1-0.
Snotboogie
April 16th, 2012
2:14 pm
David O’Brien @ajcbraves
Smoltz has a book coming out May 8, FYI: ….”Starting and Closing: Faith, Perseverance and One More Year.”
The “One more year” part of the title is a little worrying. Hope he didnt have too much to say about the less-than-amicable separation from the Braves.
Murph
April 16th, 2012
2:14 pm
Ze blog is slow today
Mixxo
April 16th, 2012
2:15 pm
cab is a swell dude…
He’s aight by me!
Ease
April 16th, 2012
2:18 pm
That VJ is quite the woman though…
jeffrey d
April 16th, 2012
2:19 pm
Eh, not the first time someone here has confused me for a guy
Lucky VJ
Shaun
April 16th, 2012
2:20 pm
TennesseePaul, I don’t expect Freeman to take a huge step forward or back this season, compared to last. I expect him to be a slightly worse but not drastically worse. I would be shocked if Freeman had a huge swing either way.
By the way, you are aware that by at least a couple of metrics, Heyward was a little more valuable than Freeman, even last season, right?
Murph
April 16th, 2012
2:26 pm
By the way, you are aware that by at least a couple of metrics, Heyward was a little more valuable than Freeman, even last season, right?
Which metrics would those be, Shaun?
DS1
April 16th, 2012
2:27 pm
Sorry Shaun, but anybody in their right mind that would say that Heyward was more valuable than Freeman last year, deserves no consideration whatsoever.
I realize you’re probably saying as a RF’er vs a firstbaseman, but still. Why would you make such a foolish statement??
Really?
Bat Masterson
April 16th, 2012
2:27 pm
Hum I wonder what they were
Net worth
The vendor for training room supplies
TennesseePaul
April 16th, 2012
2:28 pm
By the way, you are aware that by at least a couple of metrics, Heyward was a little more valuable than Freeman, even last season, right?
Also, you are aware that by a couple of metrics, Freeman was a lot more valuable than Heyward last season.
ncscoots
April 16th, 2012
2:29 pm
Ozzie “loves” Fidel and Bobby V publicly calls out Youk. Glad the Marlins and Sox are getting exactly what they paid for, LOL.
Snotboogie
April 16th, 2012
2:29 pm
I think fWAR was one of those. I know George Stein mentioned it once and got laughed at for his troubles.
DS1
April 16th, 2012
2:29 pm
Then those metrics would get absolutely NO consideration from me. None whatsoever!
OPS + alone would make someone foolish to make such a statement.
Murph
April 16th, 2012
2:31 pm
What do they do if you buy tickets for a game where a special ceremony is going to take place, like the Smoltz number retirement ceremony, and the game is rained out?
I really want to make the trip for that… Smoltzie was/is my favorite Brave of all time… but if I make the trip and it gets rained out I’m not gonna be too happy.
DS1
April 16th, 2012
2:31 pm
and folks were wanting someone like Bobby V for Atlanta. Even with Fredi’s strange moves, no thanks.
Snotboogie
April 16th, 2012
2:31 pm
Bobby V publicly calls out Youk.
Bobby V is still talking like he is in the studios at Bristol. I hope the Red Sox are playing the Marlins in one of the IL series. That’ll be fun.
DS1
April 16th, 2012
2:32 pm
Murph
Nothing in life is a certainty. Come on and hope for the best.
Snotboogie
April 16th, 2012
2:33 pm
Oh my – two series in the span of 10 days. June 11-13 and then 19-21.
Woohoo!
BravePack(FreeFan)
April 16th, 2012
2:35 pm
Oh sh!t here we go again with Shaun and his metrics. Time to ignore all of Shaun posts again starting with the Heyward more valuable than Freeman last year statement.
Venice Jim
April 16th, 2012
2:35 pm
Frank Wren on 680…
Shaun
April 16th, 2012
2:36 pm
DS1, just pointing out what the metrics show. It’s not my opinion or my thoughts.
Baseball Reference and FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement have Heyward as more valuable than Freeman in 2011. Baseball Prospectus Wins Above Replacement Player have Freeman at 0.3 wins better.
Again, just stating facts. These are not my opinions or thoughts or beliefs. These are simply measures of what happened last season.
ncscoots
April 16th, 2012
2:37 pm
That’ll be fun.
Too much.
I might even pay real American dollars for a seat at that.
DS1
April 16th, 2012
2:37 pm
BravePack
Actually, in defense of Shaun, he did not say that Heyward was better than Freeman last year. He stated that a metric indicated he was more valuable.
But why would you even bring up something like that Shaun? It just makes folks more defiant against anything of real substance that you state. And you do state a lot of great info……….
Shaun
April 16th, 2012
2:38 pm
When the metrics don’t suggest what you want to believe, criticize the metrics and the folks who point them out to you. Don’t bother questioning your own beliefs or educating yourself. No need for intellectual curiosity.
CrαZy
April 16th, 2012
2:40 pm
Murph, I went to the Maddux and Glavine number retirement its worth going. I guess you can just bank on the odds that Turner Field rarely has rainouts!! I hate going to games in ATL, but I’m going to have to fork out the $$$ to get a field level ticket for this one!!!
MiaBchBravesFan
April 16th, 2012
2:43 pm
Also gotta remember about Freeman: he did tweak a knee early on in the spring. If he is still wearing a brace, that may throw things off a wee bit – which is all it takes to throw off a major league swing – until he finds his new mojo.
At least that is what I am hoping.
Venice Jim
April 16th, 2012
2:45 pm
Much to the chagrin of many bloggers, Wren did not indicate that Durbin would be disposed of in the immediate future…
Shaun
April 16th, 2012
2:45 pm
DS1, I bring it up because Tennessee Paul mentioned that he doesn’t think Freeman will have as awful a sophomore season as Heyward had. But there is plenty of evidence that Freeman’s rookie season wasn’t any better (or, at best, wasn’t much better) than Heyward’s sophomore season.
You can except that or you can find ways that your beliefs are correct but the evidence (which doesn’t have personal favorite players) is not.
Also there are certain players (probably every team has them at some point or another) that people just aren’t going to be objective about, either because of ignorance or because of biases or because of both. Heyward is one of those players.
In the past we’ve also seen a similar perception of Andruw Jones and even Chipper, to some degree. And it is mildly annoying when people don’t have an accurate perception of players because they are unaware of the truth, or at least the truth in terms of what the evidence suggests.
DAP
April 16th, 2012
2:45 pm
shaun Baseball Reference and FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement have Heyward as more valuable than Freeman in 2011. Baseball Prospectus Wins Above Replacement Player have Freeman at 0.3 wins better.
we know they dont accurately appreciate his defense, so thats probably why they are close in WAR.
ncscoots
April 16th, 2012
2:46 pm
No need for intellectual curiosity.
Of course, you’re being just the tiniest bit intellectually dishonest, by failing to note that the primary reason Freeman shows as poorly as you say is that defensive WAR is given as much weight as offensive WAR, and we both know that this is a flaw. From a strictly offensive WAR standpoint, there is no comparison, since Heyward was less-than-replacement level last year.
But, truly, I fail to see what a comparison of Heyward’s and Freeman’s previous years have to do with whether Freeman will or will not improve his performance this season, and that was the convo, was it not? I have yet to see your reasons as to why you think he will not improve; I’ve only seen a disingenuous Heyward comparison designed to change the topic.
DS1
April 16th, 2012
2:46 pm
I’m sorry Shaun, but when a metric suggests something so far out of bounds, then the use of that metrics becomes a comedy.
Now, if a metric suggested something that was actually debatable, then yes we should be open minded.
But this one is totally ridiculous.
Just because a player might score higher in wins above replacement, doesn’t mean he was more valuable. First basemen have the highest of stats of all positions on the field. Hence, Freeman would not score as high.
WAR does not necessarily equate to more valuable.
I’m just puzzled that you would bring up something so ridiculous, knowing full well it would not be well received. Do you enjoy being controversial? And vilified?
Snotboogie
April 16th, 2012
2:47 pm
So there are 3 different types of WAR – B-R, BP and Fangraphs.
Two of them have Freeman’s WAR lower than Heyward’s by ~1. The other has him up by 0.3.
Either WAR calculation has a very high error or clearly folks havent come to an agreement on the best way to calculate WAR. But according to Shaun the problem is still with people who dont believe in all the conclusions of WAR.
MiaBchBravesFan
April 16th, 2012
2:48 pm
Best trade of the past 46 years for the Braves?
Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz. Period.
Congrats to Smoltzie for his number being retired. 47, 31, and now 29!!!
DS1
April 16th, 2012
2:51 pm
@Shaun But there is plenty of evidence that Freeman’s rookie season wasn’t any better (or, at best, wasn’t much better) than Heyward’s sophomore season.
And this statement is patently false. Any 5th grade baseball player will tell you that Freeman’s year last year was MUCH better than Heyward’s year.
OK, I refuse to be drawn into your idiocy and desire to just stir the pot. Stir somebody else’s pot from this point on. I am going out to actually WATCH a game. And I guarantee I won’t even think about a metric all evening. Guaranteed!
DAP
April 16th, 2012
2:52 pm
shaun But there is plenty of evidence that Freeman’s rookie season wasn’t any better (or, at best, wasn’t much better) than Heyward’s sophomore season.
no, not really. its pretty obvious that freddie had a better season last year than jason.
DS1
April 16th, 2012
2:53 pm
and I still LOVE RBI’s and W’s for a starting pitcher……….
Powder Blue
April 16th, 2012
2:54 pm
“Best trade of the past 46 years for the Braves? Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz. Period.”
Hard to argue with you on that. Guy was money in the postseason.
TennesseePaul
April 16th, 2012
2:54 pm
But there is plenty of evidence that Freeman’s rookie season wasn’t any better (or, at best, wasn’t much better) than Heyward’s sophomore season.
Like for instance the following metrics: AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, wOBA, GP, RC, RC/G, OWn%, BtRuns, BtWins, WPA, WPA+, RE24, sOPS+, etc, etc.
Oh wait, those all favor Freeman as the superior talent in 2011.
But of course Payne, When the metrics don’t suggest what you want to believe… go find one that does and tout it as the definitive metric.
CrαZy
April 16th, 2012
2:55 pm
#31, #47, #6, #29, #10
jeffrey d
April 16th, 2012
2:56 pm
What about Teixeira for Kotchman?
raleighbravefan
April 16th, 2012
2:57 pm
Shaun – By a couple of metrics, Lew, scoots, richbrave, almost all of the females, many I haven’t named or overlooked, and maybe even Murph…are EACH more valuble than you, veer, Don, Robert, TNPaul, and several others I have overlooked…combined.
TennesseePaul
April 16th, 2012
3:00 pm
Now RBF, what have I ever done to you? I even granted you and your house hold protection from the final judgement and there you go piling me in with Robert and Don? Are you that committed to bunting int he first inning with no outs and a runner on second?
Jimmy
April 16th, 2012
3:00 pm
And I think Doyle helped the Tigers a little that year too.
raleighbravefan
April 16th, 2012
3:00 pm
Snot – WAR, HUH! What is it good for? Absolutely NOTHIN…say it again…
Shaun
April 16th, 2012
3:00 pm
I’m sorry Shaun, but when a metric suggests something so far out of bounds, then the use of that metrics becomes a comedy.
Why? Who is to say something is “far out of bounds”? Oh, our beliefs? So when we believe a metric suggests something that is “far out of bounds,” we should ignore the metric instead of keeping an open mind and being open to the possibility that our beliefs are wrong?
ncscoots
April 16th, 2012
3:02 pm
veer, Don, Robert, TNPaul, and several others I have overlooked
Man, I gotta say that TennPaul really jumps out of there as “who doesn’t belong?” in that group. Just saying.
Snotboogie
April 16th, 2012
3:02 pm
Again, just stating facts. These are not my opinions or thoughts or beliefs. These are simply measures of what happened last season.
If the fact isnt the same as viewed by everyone, it’s probably just an opinion, an interpretation – not yours but someone else’s. Or a very flexible fact at the very least.
Venice Jim
April 16th, 2012
3:03 pm
Atlanta Braves @Braves
Tonight’s lineup vs. NYM (7:10, FSS/680AM/BRN): Bourn 8 Prado 7 Jones 5 McCann 2 Uggla 4 Heyward 9 Hinske 3 Wilson 6 Hanson 1
Murph
April 16th, 2012
3:03 pm
CraZy, let me know if you get tickets to the Smoltz game… I’m probably going to do a relatively last-minute move if I can make it and go the StubHub route.
DS1
April 16th, 2012
3:04 pm
No other way to put this, but Shaun, you are so full of it………
Do you deny all the other metrics in favor of the one, as 10Paul states???
If you do, then you aren’t nearly as smart as I thought you were.
TennesseePaul
April 16th, 2012
3:05 pm
Who is to say something is “far out of bounds”? Oh, our beliefs?
Not really. It could simply be from the scientific method of repeated observation coupled with the plethora of metrics which agree with the observation. The overwhelming support both statistical and observational render the hypothesis true. Freeman had a better 2011 than Heyward.
Murph
April 16th, 2012
3:05 pm
Hinske? Not a bad move… the guy seems to be having a good start at the plate. Wilson? Can’t do much worse than the Rev has thus far with the bat, so why not?
Anyone know how Simmons is doing?
ncscoots
April 16th, 2012
3:06 pm
instead of keeping an open mind and being open to the possibility that our beliefs are wrong?
Probably be a little easier to take a high moral tone had you ever once shown that the concept of “open mind” is not foreign to you. As it is, such words are merely bombast.
raleighbravefan
April 16th, 2012
3:06 pm
TNPaul – I was mostly poking fun at Shaun…you just got in the way
…but no, I’m not committed to bunting in the first inning, but I won’t blindly declare that it is neveer a good strategy, and anyhone who thinks that is an idiot…Should consider each situation…I had NO argument with the strategy in yesterday’s game.
njbraves
April 16th, 2012
3:08 pm
Might as well play Wilson because Pastor can’t hit and has zero range at SS. At least Wilson can play some D.
TennesseePaul
April 16th, 2012
3:08 pm
scoots, while it hurts, it cuts me deep, every man is entitled to their opinion of me. I’ve worked, I’ve added an emoticon on occasion, though without the graphics as I cannot bring my self to it yet. Maybe with more therapy…
CrαZy
April 16th, 2012
3:08 pm
Murph
Smoltie was my favorite growing up… Unless I’m dead I’ll be at the game!!
ncscoots
April 16th, 2012
3:08 pm
Anyone know how Simmons is doing?
Raking the first week, I believe.
Shaun
April 16th, 2012
3:09 pm
TennesseePaul, all those metrics you listed are not attempts to measure a player’s overall value.
And this statement is patently false. Any 5th grade baseball player will tell you that Freeman’s year last year was MUCH better than Heyward’s year.
Any 5th grader and any fan that doesn’t do very much digging. But most of the really hardcore fans that really dig deep, analysts and front office types will tell you that there wasn’t a drastic difference in these two in terms of overall value in 2011.
WAR does not necessarily equate to more valuable.
Umm…yes it does, pretty much by definition (Wins Above Replacement). Positional scarcity matters to value, if that’s your criticism of WAR and similar metrics.
I’m just puzzled that you would bring up something so ridiculous, knowing full well it would not be well received. Do you enjoy being controversial? And vilified?
I’m just as puzzled that this is so controversial to folks who take the time and are obviously big enough fans of the game to comment regularly on a blog. It’s not that I enjoy being vilified. I would much rather folks just pay attention to the evidence so we can all get along. But I don’t mind being vilified when the truth is on my side.
raleighbravefan
April 16th, 2012
3:10 pm
scoots – Of course, you are right about TNPaul…I am now formally apologizing to him. (sorry, TN) Just still a little burned over the bunting incident. That said, no way he belongs with those others.
Bay Area Steve
April 16th, 2012
3:10 pm
Will there be a counter to TnPaul’s 2:54?
I’m guessing not. Seems to be his m.o. Cherry pick what to argue, ignore the irrefutable.
Bay Area Steve
April 16th, 2012
3:10 pm
Dammit!
CrαZy
April 16th, 2012
3:11 pm
Rich
So far so good for Rob in Lynchburg… But he’s still striking out to much!!
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=heffli003rob
Bat Masterson
April 16th, 2012
3:12 pm
For a time last year a lot of people preferred Biff in the line up to Heyward and it’s not like you could have called them insane, either. Measure that
DS1
April 16th, 2012
3:12 pm
Scroll engaged……….
Shaun
April 16th, 2012
3:13 pm
ncscoots, I’m not the one relying on my own opinions, beliefs and desires to get at whether one player was any more valuable than another. I’m the one trying my best to rely on what actually happened on the field, as evident by the measures of what actually happened on the field. Yet I’m the one who is not open-minded? Strange.
Bay Area Steve
April 16th, 2012
3:13 pm
OK, having read it, that wasn’t much of a counter. I’m still calling a dodge. Partial credit?
CrαZy
April 16th, 2012
3:13 pm
At least he’s not dumb enough to put Hinske “the water buffalo” in LF.
ncscoots
April 16th, 2012
3:13 pm
<but no, I’m not committed to bunting in the first inning,
“I’ll kill anyone who bunts in the first. Then, I’ll come back and kill his family. And all his friends. All right, I’m comin’ out. Nobody better shoot. Or bunt.” – Clint Eastwood
DS1
April 16th, 2012
3:15 pm
Simmons: 346/414/423 slash line.
njbraves
April 16th, 2012
3:15 pm
You guys argue over the dumbest crap. Who cares who was more valuable?? Does it really matter?
Shaun
April 16th, 2012
3:15 pm
Will there be a counter to TnPaul’s 2:54?
Yeah. I guess you missed it. None of those stats he listed are an attempt to measure overall value. None of them take into account position scarcity or defense.
DS1
April 16th, 2012
3:16 pm
scroll engaged……….again
Jimmy
April 16th, 2012
3:17 pm
Heyward more valuable to the Braves last year than Freeman?
That’s what is being discussed? Wow!
This is an argument AGAINST metrics, not for them.
I’d rather discuss the Hanna Rule and how it applies to game tonight.
Do you understand?
DS1
April 16th, 2012
3:17 pm
njbraves
BINGO! We have a winner folks! Keep your hand raised, and someone will come over and verify your card has all the right numbers!
ncscoots
April 16th, 2012
3:18 pm
Does it really matter?
No. Just whiling away the day, jerking Shaun’s chain. I’m sure we’ll get around to an actual conversation before long.
Shaun
April 16th, 2012
3:22 pm
You guys argue over the dumbest crap. Who cares who was more valuable?? Does it really matter?
Not really, especially considering it was last year.
The discussion was just brought up by the following statement: “I don’t think [Freeman will] have as awful of a sophomore season as Heyward had.”
Truth is there wasn’t much difference between Heyward’s sophomore season and Freeman’s rookie season, in terms of overall value. That pretty much should have been the end of the discussion because, with just a little digging, anyone can see that it’s true. But the discussion continues because people don’t like to admit that their beliefs and desires don’t match up with truth, at least the truth that the evidence suggests. I understand that. It’s tough when the evidence threatens what seems so true to you. But I prefer the truth, even if it’s uncomfortable.
raleighbravefan
April 16th, 2012
3:22 pm
Position scarcity? Talk about nearly useless. Who gives a F….er…..Fig what position the guy was playing when he got the hit that scored the winning run? It’s like the people who don’t want their 2nd baseman to be a great home run hitter…It MUST be a corner OF or IF, or somehow it doesn’t count as much. WTF?
DS1
April 16th, 2012
3:23 pm
Did anybody see where Gattis had a 5-6 night with a double, homer and 6 RBIs’ yesterday? Dude is raking!
But RBI’s don’t count anyways……………
flange1
April 16th, 2012
3:24 pm
Just because a group creates a metric that is composed of statistical data does not mean that metric has any value.
Bat Masterson
April 16th, 2012
3:24 pm
Heyward was replaced in the line up by a guy who’s best attribute was the swinging bunt.
He had a bad year, really bad.
DS1
April 16th, 2012
3:24 pm
and we’re scrolling, and scrolling along…….
Danga
April 16th, 2012
3:25 pm
Baseball Reference and FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement have Heyward as more valuable than Freeman in 2011.
Oh gosh. Freeman gets dinged pretty bad in these stats because the defensive metrics don’t care for him. He undoubtedly was much better offensively than Heyward. I do think we as fans tend to value offense more than defense and this colors how we think of players, but I don’t think there is any real question as to who the better player was last season for the Braves. And if you look at WPA Freeman was 2nd on the team only to Chipper last season.
raleighbravefan
April 16th, 2012
3:26 pm
Shaun @3:22 – TRANSLATION = “It doesn’t really matter, but I’m going to argue it over and over again anyway…at least until you all agree that I’m right.”
DS1
April 16th, 2012
3:26 pm
flange1
I’m going to create my own metric. I’ll figger out the details later. It’ll be Wayne’s World Metric!
And if you don’t believe in my metric, then obviously you are a communist pig!
DS1
April 16th, 2012
3:28 pm
Danga
And the WWM will measure how many throwing errors a good gloved first baseman will save……..
So Freddie will always be the best player in the world!
Roman Gal
April 16th, 2012
3:28 pm
Ha. Someone on Twitter asked me why it mattered who the unearned run got charged to the other night with Minor/Venters.
My response: IT MATTERS TO ME, DAMMIT!
Bat Masterson
April 16th, 2012
3:29 pm
It’s tough when the evidence threatens what seems so true to you. But I prefer the truth, even if it’s uncomfortable.
Come down off the cross, Shaun. You’re no martyr, you’re a masochist.
Roman Gal
April 16th, 2012
3:29 pm
…to paraphrase, anyways.
raleighbravefan
April 16th, 2012
3:29 pm
The defensive metrics don’t like Freeman, because appearantly, they believe “range” is more important than “good hands” (preventing most throwing errors).