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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
2,256 comments Add your comment
jeffrey d
March 26th, 2012
2:29 pm
I would love world peace but Shaun might agree with me.
Actually, the fundamentals of world peace work under the archaic notion of using your best negotations at the very end of peace talks. Clearly you need to use your best tactics a couple months before the end of negotiations.
jeffrey d
March 26th, 2012
2:31 pm
Idiot.
TennesseePaul
March 26th, 2012
2:31 pm
are you sure he didnt?
DAP, Payne labors under the perpetual delusion that the Braves best reliever is the closer. Therefore if the Closer wasn’t used in the fifth or sixth inning, his game plan was never utilized.
Threadkiller
March 26th, 2012
2:31 pm
Shaun, We’ll you better find a better website to get your stats from, cause I saw what I saw, I can only reference the Pittsburgh game on. 1-4 is not good my friend!
You use your closer to preserve a Victory…Preserve the Win, not to bring him in the 7th inning to win that inning!
The goal is to win the game! Not win an inning!
Sorry..Just can’t agree with you here..Just too many Professionals not using your theory!
Shaun
March 26th, 2012
2:33 pm
I just pulled up a game at random, while looking through Kimbrel’s game log from last season.
April 14th, against the Marlins. Beachy comes out after 6. Tied game. Due up in the 7th: Logan Morrison, Gaby Sanchez, Greg Dobbs, then John Buck, 5-6-7 hitters. The Braves go with O’Flaherty. I can understand O’Flaherty facing Morrison, but Helms pinch-hit for Dobbs (which was predictable). Why not Kimbrel right there? Why not Venters? Why not one of the best two pitchers in the league to face that key part of the Marlins order with the game tied? Marlins took the lead in that inning. O’Flaherty was great but he’s not Kimbrel or Venters. But because it was the 7th, the Braves didn’t want to go with one of their best arms because they had to save them for the 8th and 9th, when the lead was already blown.
Owl Hunter
March 26th, 2012
2:34 pm
We need to be looking at Gerardo Parra right about now.
jimmy
March 26th, 2012
2:35 pm
Other things to discuss:
RISP average means very little. You can score a run by making an out.
The pitcher should bat 8th in the lineup.
RBI don’t measure a player ability to drive in runs.
That’s off the top of my head.
Owl Hunter
March 26th, 2012
2:37 pm
jimmy
Agree. Agree. Agree
abeeewright
March 26th, 2012
2:40 pm
Shaun, March 26th, 2012, 12:56 pm … “Does you no good to save your [best reliever] until the ninth … if some lesser pitcher gives up a lead to the heart of the opposing team’s order in the 7th or 8th.”
Yes it does. There are high leverage situations in every game. If you used your best reliever in the highest leverage situation in a game, you would have best relievers (closers) rack up roughly 162 innings per season.
Don’t burn your best reliever to “save the game” in the sixth, only to watch your lesser relievers give away the game in the 7th, 8th, or 9th. Either way, you lose the game; however, in the long run, the team that manages its bullpen wisely wins more games out of 162.
kenhotlanta
March 26th, 2012
2:42 pm
flange1: Funny you should mention Osborne: I went to grammar school in the Osborne district and desperately wanted to go to high school at Osborne with all of my friends, but my parents (without telling me!) built a new house in the Sprayberry district and we moved when I was in the 8th grade.
I hated Sprayberry the first few months of my Freshman year and still missed all of my friends that I had grown up with. But after awhile, I made friends at Sprayberry and it turned out great…I wouldn’t trade that experience for anything. However, I’ve always wondered how different my life might have been had I went to Osborne, plus my parents (bless them) never understood my stress and frustration over the whole situation. And I am still friends with many of those kids from grammar school.
doug
March 26th, 2012
2:42 pm
EOF was already burned, and you wanted to burn another releiver? Those same guys hit in the 9th too. Game wouldn’t have been on the line there either? If EOF gives up the run in the 9th, then we only have one chance to come back, not three.
Venice Jim
March 26th, 2012
2:42 pm
Mark Bowman @mlbbowman
Hanson’s line from today’s game from Triple-A Astros club: 5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K…69 pitches
noleee
March 26th, 2012
2:42 pm
gee I seem to remember some of us mentioning Byrd a number of times. would be nice to have him
jimmy
March 26th, 2012
2:45 pm
(Why am I doing this??)
Shaun, using your way of thinking, why not PH for the pitcher whenever he comes up with a man in scoring position? Regardless of the inning. You want your best hitter up there, right?
Also consider this – what if you get your “closer” up in the seventh, get him warmed up, and then don’t use him? Is he done for the game or do you warm him up again if needed?
I think the game has evolved because the other way was tried, and this way is better. But I’m just a baseball fan.
Threadkiller
March 26th, 2012
2:45 pm
Blah, Blah, Blah..I actually think O’Flaherty was better than Kimbrel last year…That’s the beauty of baseball..You can predict something will happen like your theory, and it will indeed happen once in a while.
This coming year, I will predict that there will be a triple play, more than 2 inside the park home runs, and finally there will be no perfect games thrown this year..Thanks for playing
abeeewright
March 26th, 2012
2:45 pm
DOB tweet … “Braves will start a minor league pitcher Tues. vs. #Mets. “
Teheran or Delgado?
Murph
March 26th, 2012
2:46 pm
Between O’Flaherty, Venters, and Kimbrel, I think there’s an argument to be made for all 3 when it comes to who the team’s best reliever is/was last season.
So long as one of the 3 was on the mound when it mattered there really shouldn’t be much to debate here. If Proctor or Linebrink was facing the opposition’s 3-4-5 hitters in an important situation then, yes, you are right, the bullpen was misused.
If it was O’Flaherty, Venters, or Kimbrel, though, then I don’t get your point. Each of those guys individually should be considered to be one of the top 10 relievers in the entire game, let alone just on the Braves.
noleee
March 26th, 2012
2:46 pm
Shaun on another crusade huh?
I think there might be some reason that no team in baseball uses any of his theories, but maybe they are just being contrarians…
Shaun
March 26th, 2012
2:46 pm
Threadkiller, I’m just pointing out the facts. Kimbrel only lost or gave up the winning run(s) one time while pitching in a non-save situation.
If the Braves lost games in which Kimbrel didn’t give up runs, I think it’s pretty silly to blame Kimbrel for that. And some of those games the Braves lost, in which Kimbrel came in while it was tied, maybe they would have won had Kimbrel or Venters come in earlier.
ncscoots
March 26th, 2012
2:47 pm
I recall scoots entertaining that thought. He tickled it’s feet. He giggled his keys in front of it. He made silly faces to it. And in a goofy playful voice he asked it why it always seemed to have “poopy diapers.”
Challenge! I never said “poopy diapers”.
I said “droopy drawers”.
noleee
March 26th, 2012
2:48 pm
aha, the value of a really deep pen
kenhotlanta
March 26th, 2012
2:48 pm
Hey noleee…just wake up? It’s time for my nap, see in a few.
noleee
March 26th, 2012
2:49 pm
scoots , what thought were you entertaining?
noleee
March 26th, 2012
2:49 pm
yeah ken, more or less just did
LJ
March 26th, 2012
2:52 pm
why do some children always want to reinvent a game that has been just fine for over a hundred years. and why do they think that nobody’s thoughts are any good other than their own? some things never change. and then things that shouldn’t do
ah forget it, i’m just getting old
jeffrey d
March 26th, 2012
2:53 pm
I think there might be some reason that no team in baseball uses any of his theories, but maybe they are just being contrarians…
They probably admit that using your closer in the 4th is a good idea, they just don’t do it to spite Shaun since they’re so closed-minded.
Shaun
March 26th, 2012
2:55 pm
abeeewright, obviously rest has to factor in, in addition to leverage. There are a lot of factors to consider. But it seems in today’s game, inning is the major factor. O’Flaherty has to come in in the 7th, Venters in the 8th and Kimbrel in the 9th…or Kimbrel in the last inning, Venters in the next-to-last, and O’Flaherty in the inning before that.
This is not a great way to use a bullpen. Yes, rest must be considered. Yes, sometimes it may be best for Kimbrel to pitch in the 9th. But what I’m saying is, there is no reason to tie reliever usage purely into inning alone. If Kimbrel matches up well with a part of the opposing team’s order in the 7th inning, bring him in in the 7th of a close game. Bullpen usage is save-obsessed or last-inning-obsessed. Because if a manger blows a game in the last inning with a mediocre pitcher, everyone will remember. If he wins a game in the 7th inning with a dominant reliever, no one will remember. That’s why things are the backassward way that they are.
Owl Hunter
March 26th, 2012
2:55 pm
I will say that sometime Fredi manages as though getting the save is more important than getting the win.
ncscoots
March 26th, 2012
2:56 pm
nolie, I originally just asked Shaun if he ever considered the fact that just because one disagreed with a point of view does not mean that one had not considered that point of view on its merits.
Sometimes, I believe Shaun thinks that the fact of disagreement means merely that the person has not considered his (and thus, the correct) logic sufficiently, and is disagreeing out of spite or ignorance. Because, no one, and I mean no one, who logically examines an issue of baseball could possibly disagree with Shaun’s conclusions. That’s my take, anyway.
DAP
March 26th, 2012
2:56 pm
shaun O’Flaherty was great but he’s not Kimbrel or Venters. But because it was the 7th, the Braves didn’t want to go with one of their best arms because they had to save them for the 8th and 9th, when the lead was already blown.
eric o’flarety had a historic season last year. im not saying conclusively, but they argument can be made that he was the best pitcher in the bullpen last year. im just not sure you can question Fredi’s bullpen management when it comes to choosing the best pitcher…they were all amazing.
David O'Brien
March 26th, 2012
2:58 pm
Tommy Hanson’s line vs. Triple-A Astros today: 5 IP , 2 H , 1R (earned) , 0 BB , 6 SO. Threw 69 pitches.
Bay Area Steve
March 26th, 2012
2:58 pm
This man deserves some accolades, folks. Some acknowledgment. Some atta-boys. How good is this:
Tater’s Beer Battered Pancake recipe (Sauced Saucier)…
Items needed: Box o’bisquik, fresh egg, Bic lighter, fresh milk, poptart.
Yield: at 3.
kneed door knob until keyhole is found.
enter kitchen (giggle liberally).
Fire up the gas range.
Put out eyebrow flambe.
Grab the bisquik box and sift for weevils.
Sweep floor.
Pour 1 part bisquik in bowl.
Sweep floor.
smell milk.
smell, again.
Pour 1 part milk in bowl.
wipe floor and cabinet.
break 1 egg in bowl.
chase eggshell with spoon.
chase eggshell with spoon.
chase eggshell with spoon.
chase eggshell with spoon.
Refridgerate and throw poptart in toaster.
_
The man is like the old jjs. Straight bonkers, in a good way. Sonny Clusters without the redundancy and the will-never-go-away crusades against Chipper and DOB.
Owl Hunter
March 26th, 2012
2:59 pm
Shaun
I agree that more people need to think outside the box when it comes to bullpen usage. Using a certain pitcher exclusively at a certain time is lazy and closed minded. I think more teams will change with the time in the future.
Also, O’Flaherty was great, but having a lower ERA doesn’t make you a better pitcher.
Bay Area Steve
March 26th, 2012
3:00 pm
“That’s my take, anyway.”
I don’t think there’s any doubt. In fact, I’m certain of it.
Owl Hunter
March 26th, 2012
3:01 pm
Great to see Hanson doing well.
noleee
March 26th, 2012
3:01 pm
Greatest Offensive and Defensive Player of Atlanta Fame is Bar-none-Dale Murphey…
In your dreams
Lee in S GA
March 26th, 2012
3:02 pm
“Bullpen usage is save-obsessed or last-inning-obsessed.”
——————————————
MLB is also so stat obsessed and driven. I can see many closers being unhappy with this theory of bringing them in anytime and also having bad attitudes and maybe even with other pitchers also. Not to mention their earnings/signings could be affected around free agent time.
Shaun
March 26th, 2012
3:02 pm
“Shaun, using your way of thinking, why not PH for the pitcher whenever he comes up with a man in scoring position? Regardless of the inning. You want your best hitter up there, right?”
No, because if Clayton Kershaw is on the mound and is up in the 4th inning with a man in scoring position, you do yourself more harm than good by pinch hitting him then. That’s not the case with bringing in your best reliever into a close game, when he’s rested, and the match-up is in his favor, regardless of whether it is or isn’t the 9th inning.
“Also consider this – what if you get your “closer” up in the seventh, get him warmed up, and then don’t use him? Is he done for the game or do you warm him up again if needed?”
How is this different than warming up the closer to pitch the 9th and then don’t use him?
Bay Area Steve
March 26th, 2012
3:03 pm
Murph, rather lay with fire-ants: beautiful, and so true.
Trey, eat more fruits instead of smashing them: Gallagher himself woulda laughed. Well done.
Hillbilly, I though I hated all things hashtag, but that #FreeMedlen line was awesome. I’m in.
David O'Brien
March 26th, 2012
3:06 pm
NL East looks like a beast, but Braves say they still like their chances
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2012/03/26/nl-east-looks-like-a-beast-but-braves-still-like-their-chances/
Hillbilly
March 26th, 2012
3:08 pm
DOB tweet … “Braves will start a minor league pitcher Tues. vs. #Mets. “
Teheran or Delgado?
abwright, Great Arkansas minds think alike. (see my 2:25 on pg. 19)
Trey
March 26th, 2012
3:08 pm
ken, you graduated from one of my school’s rivals, I see. Wheeler High class of ‘06.
jimmy
March 26th, 2012
3:08 pm
Got to go find me a roll of duct tape for my head!
Later good folks.
Murph
March 26th, 2012
3:08 pm
If O’Flaherty keeps trending the way he has since coming to Atlanta he will have an ERA around 0.000 and more than a K per inning this season… the kid just keeps getting better and better every year. He may not have the flash of a Kimbrel or a Venters, but there’s no way you can look at what he’s done over the last 3 seasons and not think he is a very good reliever.
MFin04
March 26th, 2012
3:08 pm
Is it really even possible to use your closer in an inning besides the 9th? I’m being serious. By the time you get into the situation where you closer wold be needed, he wouldn’t even be warmed up right?
I mean in the 9th inning you at least know to get him warmed up, but in the 6th or 7th…you wouldn’t even be thinking of getting him warmed up. Then when the time came for him to pitch, could you really warm him up and get him into the game on time to mitigate the disaster?
DAP
March 26th, 2012
3:09 pm
shaun O’Flaherty has to come in in the 7th, Venters in the 8th and Kimbrel in the 9th
in o’flarety’s case, he pitched in the 7th inning less than 60% of the time. venters pitched in the 8th only 77% of the time. and 10% of kimbrel’s innings were outside the 9th. so, maybe the roles arent as strict as you are making them sound.
kenhotlanta
March 26th, 2012
3:10 pm
BAS: I was reading one of the tribute columns to Furman Bisher and saw a poignant comment from JSS, just like I knew he would. God, I miss that guy, he was so funny and right on point at the same time.
Hillbilly
March 26th, 2012
3:10 pm
BAS, My first usage of twitter language, and it felt so wrong. I refuse to be a tweeter, but I thought I’d air that one out here.
Shaun
March 26th, 2012
3:11 pm
Lee in S GA, yep. Saves makes it easy on agents. An agent can just say, “look how many saves my guy had.” He doesn’t have to prove whether or not he was a good pitcher or worry about things like what happened to a team’s win probability after his guy pitched.
ncscoots, in many cases, the things I bring up are not just my conclusions. They are things that have been looked at by many people. There are many people who thing that it is reasonable not to strictly tie your best reliever exclusively into a closing role or a last-inning role. Yes, sometimes it may be appropriate for the best reliever to work the last inning or in a save situation, but sometimes it’s not.) And the logic dictates this. It’s not really anyone’s point of view or belief. It’s what reason dictates managers do. It’s only someone’s point of view in that that is where logic takes them.
noleee
March 26th, 2012
3:12 pm
sounds like a bit of denial to me…..
noleee
March 26th, 2012
3:14 pm
hey are things that have been looked at by many people. There are many people who thing that it is reasonable not to strictly tie your best reliever exclusively into a closing role or a last-inning role…Shaun
but nobody who actually relies on baseball decisions to win games and continue their employment.
kenhotlanta
March 26th, 2012
3:15 pm
Trey, yes they are now, but your school didn’t even exist when I went to Sprayberry. That’s how old I am and most days I feel it.
TennesseePaul
March 26th, 2012
3:16 pm
Challenge! I never said “poopy diapers”.
I said “droopy drawers”.
I stand corrected.
David O'Brien
March 26th, 2012
3:16 pm
1B Mauro Gomez just went ‘yard for Red Sox against Phillies in game on ESPN. (He hit 24 homers for Gwinnett last season)
Bay Area Steve
March 26th, 2012
3:17 pm
“It’s only someone’s point of view in that that is where logic takes them.”
If I believe this to be true, does it not follow that I am then infallible? If my logic takes me to a point of view, that point of view is now a fact, is what you’re saying. My logic would supersede anyone else’s, right? “The logic dictates this.”
This is awesome. I’ll never be wrong again. My logic says so.
TennesseePaul
March 26th, 2012
3:17 pm
“That’s what you play this sport for, to have competition, to have a challenge,” Braves left fielder Martin Prado said. “This is what we’re looking for. This is the kind of season where either you put all your money in, or you’re out. So I’m putting all in.”
How long until Bud bans Pardo for betting on the game?
noleee
March 26th, 2012
3:21 pm
I never knew you to be wrong anyway BAS….
flange1
March 26th, 2012
3:21 pm
BAS, the all knowing!
noleee
March 26th, 2012
3:22 pm
well except for the few times that you disagreed with me, but that goes for everybody so shouldn’t count against you
Shaun
March 26th, 2012
3:23 pm
noleee, probably more than you think. People who know better realize it’s not worth the media scrutiny and all the attention that comes from not assigning one pitcher the closer’s role or not using the best reliever in the closer’s role.
However, many teams have realized that there is a cover for this. Just give the closer’s role to a lesser, veteran pitcher to humor the media and the fan base so they aren’t constantly asking which guy is the closer. And teams can hide behind the fact that the guy has closer experience (using terminology like, “closer mentality”).
Trey
March 26th, 2012
3:24 pm
Oh wow, Ken. It’s been around since 1965, too.
ncscoots
March 26th, 2012
3:25 pm
I’m with nolie on this , BAS. If you’ve been wrong, I missed it.
noleee
March 26th, 2012
3:25 pm
no Shaun, not more than I think
TennesseePaul
March 26th, 2012
3:26 pm
So now the conspiracy surfaces…
ncscoots
March 26th, 2012
3:29 pm
I do feel bad for stirring up reliever usage, though. kenhotlanta made mention of it and I thought, “I’ll do a post on this. Conversation with ken is safe.” But Shaun was in stealth mode, and I didn’t see him hiding in the weeds. Bam! Ninety-eleven bullpen posts. I averted my eyes, too late: I was stoned by Medusa’s Head.
Shaun
March 26th, 2012
3:31 pm
noleee, people making decisions realize that the quality of the players on the team matter more than when they are used. Not that when they are used isn’t important. It’s just that most front office folks realize that it’s about getting good enough players so that some more traditionalist manager just couldn’t possibly do much to screw things up. And they are satisfied with slowly chipping away at tradition rather than having the team and manager face all the scrutiny from doing things the optimal way but the way that is going to be questioned by the media and fans.
jeffrey d
March 26th, 2012
3:31 pm
People who know better realize it’s not worth the media scrutiny and all the attention that comes from not assigning one pitcher the closer’s role or not using the best reliever in the closer’s role.
So teams are less worried about winning than they are about being “scrutinized” by the media? And the teams that are smart enough to figure it out have a puppet closer in the 9th and deploy their undisputed best pitcher in the 7th?
Heck, I think if you’ve got a weenie pitching in the 9th and the manager is pitching the best pitcher early, that would be scrutinized more than anything.
flange1
March 26th, 2012
3:32 pm
Shaun said”
People who know better realize it’s not worth the media scrutiny and all the attention that comes from not assigning one pitcher the closer’s role or not using the best reliever in the closer’s role.”
What the heck does that mean?
To me it means that this bullpen usage theory of Shaun’s has such a slight advantage to the present system that it is not worth worrying about.
If it means something different, I am interested in hearing!
LJ
March 26th, 2012
3:35 pm
is there an off switch? shame on you nolee
ncscoots
March 26th, 2012
3:35 pm
So now the conspiracy surfaces…
And this one I’ve never understood. If the methodology of early closer use (for lack of a better term) is so much smarter than the current use, why would “media scrutiny” be a bad thing? Wouldn’t the visionary who proceeds in the correct fashion not soon be hailed as a, well, visionary? A genius, in fact? If the bleep works, who cares about nattering sports writers (be they overzealous or not, LOL)?
ncscoots
March 26th, 2012
3:38 pm
Not that O’Brien would natter, of course. That was just a generic “sports writers” thing.
noleee
March 26th, 2012
3:38 pm
moi? It’s all scoots fault, he even admitted it….
Bay Area Steve
March 26th, 2012
3:38 pm
“nattering”
Nice. Who coined “Nattering Nabobs of Negativity?” That you, too? Love that one. Miss that one. Wish that one was here. (Or wasn’t here, if ya catch my drift.)
Bay Area Steve
March 26th, 2012
3:40 pm
‘OB used to natter here. Now he twitters there. I’m bitter, everywhere.
raleighbravefan
March 26th, 2012
3:40 pm
Let’s see…bullpen usage…How about lineup construction…and value of RBI and win-loss stats.
kenhotlanta
March 26th, 2012
3:41 pm
scoots: sorry I unleashed the demon spawn (just kidding, Shaun), I thought it was an innocent post to discuss on a sleepy off day. My bad.
ncscoots
March 26th, 2012
3:43 pm
Who coined “Nattering Nabobs of Negativity?” That you, too?
heaven forbid. That was coined by one Spiro Agnew, former governor and vice-president turned crook, LOL. His lasting legacy is that phrase and one other (which will come to me in a moment). Well, that, and grossly incompetent thievery, but the phrases are what counts.
noleee
March 26th, 2012
3:45 pm
“nattering nabobs of negativism” is from a Spiro Agnew speech written by William Safire dummie….
ncscoots
March 26th, 2012
3:45 pm
ken, not your fault, bud. It’s a reasonable conversation between sane folks, worth a couple of posts laying out the pros and cons of both sides of the argument. Some folks just can’t let it go that route, is all. You and I can try again later; I saved my posts on it.
B-F_52
March 26th, 2012
3:47 pm
I think Agnew coinned the “got milk” thing
Bay Area Steve
March 26th, 2012
3:48 pm
See, I, uh, knew that, but, uh, wanted to honor the, uh, no-politics rule. Duh…
ncscoots
March 26th, 2012
3:48 pm
nolie, what the heck was the other Agnew line? Pusillanimous something? I don’t want to look it up.
Shaun
March 26th, 2012
3:50 pm
“Heck, I think if you’ve got a weenie pitching in the 9th and the manager is pitching the best pitcher early, that would be scrutinized more than anything.”
jeffrey d, right, which is exactly why teams don’t do it unless they have a cover, like the inferior pitcher having closer experience or a closer’s mentality. If a manager losses with his best reliever pitching the 9th inning, no one is going to second guess him, even if it wasn’t actually the optimal move.
Also, if most teams are employing a backward strategy, it’s not worth changing, not until every team figures out it’s backwards. For example, why should the Braves use Kimbrel in a non-traditional-closer’s role when they aren’t going to gain an edge because their opponents are doing the same thing? It’s going to take a lot more teams doing things optimal way to force baseball to change.
flange1, this gets me to the point you made. Right now it doesn’t mean much, in terms of added wins, because most teams are managing their bullpens a somewhat backwards way, with a great reliever absolutely tied into a closer’s role. It’s worth worrying about because any team the realizes that they shouldn’t have such strict roles for relievers based solely on pitching the last inning, it’s a competitive advantage.
Let’s say every team, because of some weird tradition based on flawed logic, batted it’s best hitter 8th for 50 years. If a team came along and batted its best hitter in one of the top four spots, it would create a media and fan firestorm in this situation. If everyone is doing it, why bother changing…until more teams do it and you’re forced to in order to keep up? If making that change was worth 20-30 wins, maybe it would be worth the firestorm it would create. But if it’s worth only a handful of wins and no one else has realized it, why bother?
noleee
March 26th, 2012
3:53 pm
state of Maryland called him morally obtuse
I believe the following were all Spiro phrases:
the “vicars of vacillation,” the “pusillanimous pu$syfooters,” and “hopeless, hysterical hypochondriacs of history.” Then go after the “nattering nabobs of negativism.” The “ideological eunuchs,” the “rad-libs,” the “decadent few,” the “effete corps of of impudent snobs,” and “the hopeless, hysterical hypochondriacs of history.”
ncscoots
March 26th, 2012
3:55 pm
nolie, thanks, buddy. That’s the Agnew we knew and detested.
Venice Jim
March 26th, 2012
3:56 pm
Safire had a way with words…
abeeewright
March 26th, 2012
3:56 pm
Shaun, March 26th, 2012, 2:55 pm … “what I’m saying is, there is no reason to tie reliever usage purely into inning alone.”
I’m not a fan of how BC or Fredo have used their bullpens; however, I don’t think you can truly say that they use relievers based solely on what inning it is. In fact, I doubt you can say this about the majority of baseball.
Leverage is the key factor. And, leverage increases with decreasing chances to score runs.
Leverage also increases with decreasing opportunity to win games (i.e., later in the season).
You have argued that leverage increases based on game situation (i.e., sixth inning with scoring opportunity and opponents best hitters at the plate [using your earlier argument about how the best hitter should be hitting second, this would be their 2-3-4 hitters coming to bat <g> not their 3-4-5]). This is true.
However, leverage is only one of many factors influencing a decision … rest, match-ups, handedness, mental preparation, warm-up time, etc.
I would argue that most managers and hitting coaches consider many of these factors when making a decision … a decision which has to be made in a very short time frame, while the game is playing.
It has been long established under those conditions that a sub-optimal decision that has been well-practiced will yield better results than an optimal decision that is implemented on the fly.
So, the benefits of defining bullpen roles most of the time will outweigh any benefits for e.g., using your closer in a middle inning situation.
Consequently, defining roles in advance principally by inning and score (leading/trailing) and adjusting off that strategy in a limited way based on game situation, will give better results than making it up as you go along.
QED
noleee
March 26th, 2012
3:56 pm
of course if a team actually did purposely define it’s closer as a lessor pitcher, it means you are comparing apples and oranges since most teams don’t. total silliness
flange1
March 26th, 2012
3:57 pm
Shaun,
That is the most illogical argement I have ever heard!
It does not matter if it’s better, let’s avoid the firestorm of media if we make a change?
And the folks that do it first will reap the largest benefit because no one else is doing it, right?
And they still aren’t making the change?
And we are including the Red Sox and A’s and other stat oriented clubs?
You need to try again, the logic of your argument is a FAIL.
Venice Jim
March 26th, 2012
3:57 pm
I’m still upset that Agnew’s Nolo Contendre plea came in the middle of the Mets-Reds playoff game, and we missed the hard slide Rose made into Bud Harrelson which led to further repercussions…
Murph
March 26th, 2012
3:57 pm
I want the Falcons to start kicking field goals on downs other than 4th down in the future… why not get the almost guaranteed 3 points ASAP instead of waiting?
noleee
March 26th, 2012
3:58 pm
Safire could turn a phrase alright
Murph
March 26th, 2012
3:59 pm
And I also believe that the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down FG kicker should be the punter… save the 4th down FG’s for the real place kicker.
brian
March 26th, 2012
4:00 pm
Travis Snider, just 24, sent to the minors and likely trade bait. ESPN.com rumor mill (for what it is worth) lists the Braves as a potential destination. Although left handed, he would be a nice addition to the Braves. He may just need a change in scenery and some job security. With Prado destined to play significant time at 3B, I think he would be a nice fit in LF for the Braves depending on cost in prospects.
What would Toronto want for him? I don’t think we can say that they owe us for the Yunel trade???
ncscoots
March 26th, 2012
4:00 pm
Safire had a way with words…
He and Buchanan both could sling. Them boys were no-doubters. One can admire technique even while being revolted by the result thereof.
Shaun
March 26th, 2012
4:00 pm
ncscoots, the move wouldn’t make enough of a difference for very many fans and folks in the mainstream media to notice, especially considering most teams do things the same way.
What’s going to change it is when a dominant team goes into a season and announces that they aren’t assigning relievers based on the closer/set-up paradigm. That they are going to use relievers based on leverage, match-ups, whether a pitcher needs rest, etc. rather than which pitchers will set-up and which pitcher will close. As soon as a team does this and wins 100 games, so that it’s impossible to second-guess them, we’ll see more teams go with a more reasonable bullpen usage strategy.
ncscoots
March 26th, 2012
4:04 pm
What’s going to change it is when a dominant team goes into a season and announces that they aren’t assigning relievers based on the closer/set-up paradigm.
I’m 61, Shaun. I can’t wait that long.
noleee
March 26th, 2012
4:04 pm
Snider? gee I sure hope not
noleee
March 26th, 2012
4:05 pm
no matter the age scoots, it is unlikely to ever happen
ncscoots
March 26th, 2012
4:07 pm
nolie, I’m just messin’ with him, LOL. As ken said, it’s a slow off-day…gotta find entertainment where one may.