What does awful (or great) spring record mean?

12:38 pm March 16, 2012, by David O'Brien

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — Spring training results are generally forgotten around the time the national anthem is played on Opening Day, but that doesn’t mean they have no significance whatsoever.

Especially if you’re at one of the extremes in either direction.

Jair Jurrjens, coming off an injury-shortened season, hasn't pitched like an Opening Day starter, but he might get that nod for the Braves.

By that I mean, if you win three out of every four games or lose three out of every four in the spring, it can affect the atmosphere around a club, depending upon the makeup of the team and its leadership.

I covered the 1997 Marlins team that went 26-5, the best spring-training record in at least the past quarter century. They won the World Series.

Right now I’m covering a team on pace for the worst record in that period.

Yes, the Braves today are at the other extreme of spring-training record. They have a 2-11-1 record entering Friday night’s game against the Houston Astros. The record isn’t too misleading, either. They haven’t played more than a few games where all the components — hitting, pitching, defense — were solid.

The two worst spring-training records since the mid-1980s belong to the Pirates – 6-18 in 1985 and 7-21 in 2010. Pittsburgh finished 57-104 in the ’85 regular season and 57-105 in ’10.

No, I’m not saying these Braves are headed toward 100 losses. Not at all. But they need to start winning some Grapefruit League games to avoid being lumped with rather undesirable company.

With the Astros in town, coincidentally enough, we can note that the 2009 ‘Stros had a 1-10-1 record after 12 Grapefruit League games — same as the Braves had before their Wednesday win against the Nationals.

Houston won just one of its first 18 spring games that year, but finished with a flurry and had 12 wins by the end of spring training. They finished 74-88 in the regular season.

Atlanta manager Fredi Gonzalez knows that plenty of Braves fans are getting antsy. Being lumped in with the Pirates and recent Astros isn’t what folks expect from the Bravos.

Coming off his team’s 10-20 collapse that ended the 2011 season, Gonzalez realizes that two wins in the first 14 spring games is not comforting for Braves Nation, even if these are only exhibition games.

The Braves have a lot riding on Jason Heyward, who has shown some encouraging signs in recent days, including a homer and double in Wednesday's win against Washington. But he's still putting things together and one of many Braves with poor overall statistics this spring.

That was one reason he was so pleased to see the team have a well-rounded solid performance in Wednesday night’s win against Washington, which happened to be televised on both Fox Sports South and the MLB Network.

“It creates momentum,” Gonzalez said of winning. “If you’re playing well it’s contagious, like hitting. Winning is contagious, no matter if we’re playing a spring training game. Health is more important in spring training that winning … but yeah, winning is important.

“We played well [Wednesday], and we’ve played well sometimes and lost. But yeah, it’s a good feeling to win, it really is. If you’re a competitor – which these guys are, we all are in our business – it’s not a good feeling when you lose a ballgame. You’ve got to feel bad. I know it’s spring training, but still you want to win ballgames.”

He said this Thursday morning at Clearwater, before the Braves blew a 3-2 lead and lost 6-4 to the defending NL East champion Phillies.

Braves reliever Adam Russell gave up the last two runs of the game in the seventh inning Thursday, not the first time this spring when games have been blown by pitchers who are either minor leaguers or guys competing for a job.

But the Braves are playing teams doing the same things, teams that for the first part of spring training turn games over in the late innings to minor leaguers and/or non-roster invitees fighting for jobs. Most of those teams are beating the Braves.

I asked Gonzalez if he or the players paid much attention to what’s being said and written about them nationally, the quotes from some scouts and officials from other teams (always anonymous, of course) saying that things are looking alarmingly bad for the Braves. The 10-20 finish and 8-1/2-game blown wild-card lead is almost always referenced.

“I know that I don’t [pay attention to what’s being said and written],” Gonzalez said. “I can honestly tell you from my end of it, I’m trying to get this club ready, prepared to play the major league season healthy. And that stuff for me, last year, it’s over with. Now obviously it’ll keep coming up every time we lose three or four in a row, and you understand that and you’ve just got to manage that through the course of the year.

“That’s just me speaking personally. I think those guys [players] are even less worried about that stuff.”

With that in mind, I asked him about the team’s health — he’s pleased overall, especially the recovery of pitchers including Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson – and about its work on the practice field and in games.

Shortstop prospect Andrelton Simmons has been one of the bright spots this spring for the Braves. (Jason Getz photo/AJC)

“Other than the win and loss columns, I think we’re right where we’re supposed to be, as far as getting guys ready,” Gonzalez said. “We’ve seen good performances from guys that we brought in like [Jordan] Parraz. ‘Dodge’ has done a helluva job – Dodge Durango. [Luis Durango] That’s what the boys have named him.

“You bring in [Tyler] Pastornicky and see some good stuff that people have told us about. [Andrelton] Simmons is Simmons, he’s showing what he can do. Danny Uggla is having a good approach…

“So yeah, other than if we wouldn’t keep records in spring training, we’re pleased.”

♣ That other extreme: What I remember most about that 1997 spring training covering the Marlins, other than manager Jim Leyland’s foul-mouthed hilarity and a couple of epic home runs by Bobby Bonilla and Gary Sheffield at the Marlins’ then-home ballpark in Viera, were comments that opponents made about that Florida team.

At least three times late that spring, a player or manager I knew from another team told me that was easily the best team they’d seen all spring. Two other times, a Marlin said an opposing player or coach told him, “See you guys in the World Series.”

They were that good that spring. It was glaringly obvious.

They finished 92-70 and didn’t win the division (the Braves did), but those Marlins won the wild card, the NL pennant and the World Series.

There was a mood in that Marlins clubhouse that spring, a confidence that bordered on cockiness. They knew that general manager Dave Dombrowski had assembled a team that was balanced, with a deep pitching staff, powerful lineup and experienced bench – not to mention Leyland, who’d been lured away from Pittsburgh — and winning five out of every six Grapefruit League games certainly did nothing but reinforce their confidence.

Was winning in the spring essential? No. It didn’t hurt, but more important than the spring-training record was the depth and talent on that team.

Consider this: three of the four best spring-training records since then belonged to the 1999 Royals (22-9), ’99 Dodgers (21-9), and ’02 Orioles (20-9), all teams that went on to finish below .500 during the regular season.

Near as I can tell the worst spring record since 1984 – as far back as I could find reliable stats – for a team other than the Pirates was a 7-20 mark by the 1984 Cubs, who went 93-69 during the regular season.

As we’ve said, spring training records aren’t a reliable indicator of anything.

Since 1984 four other teams won only eight games in spring training including the 1988 Braves, who went 8-21 in the spring and 54-106 in the regular season.

The Detroit Tigers went 8-22 in both 1991 and ’93, then had winning records both seasons (84-78 in ’91 and 85-77 in ’93). The other eight-win spring since 1984 belonged to Montreal in 1998 (8-22), and those Expos went 65-97 in the regular season.

Again, any connection between spring and season records is tenuous.

But you’d obviously prefer something other than one of the worst spring-training records in recent history, especially coming off a rotten end to the previous season.

♣ Spring stats: For those so inclined, we bring you some statistical information at the midway point of spring training.

Braves lead the National League with 54 walks. This is good, for a team that slipped from being one of the league walks leaders for years under hitting coach Terry Pendleton to one of the majors’ worst last season in their one year under hitting coach Larry Parrish.

The other five teams with at least 50 walks are all American League teams, led by Oakland and Detroit with 55 apiece. But there’s the other side of the coin: Atlanta is still just 26th in the majors in OBP (.312), with a .227 batting average that ranks ahead of only the Orioles (.208).

The Braves’ .653 OPS is tied with Minnesota for 25th in the majors, and two of the four teams below them happen to be from the NL East: New York (.649) and Miami (.641).

Those same three NL East teams rank in the bottom five in the majors in runs: 26. Mets (45 runs), 27. Braves (44), 30. Marlins (32). It should be noted, the Mets have played two fewer games than the Braves, and the Marlins have played three fewer.

However, Marlins pitchers lead the majors with a 2.71 ERA, while the Braves (5.59) rank 26th.

The eight other teams in the bottom nine in ERA train in Arizona in the Cactus League, where the balls fly further and scoring is higher than in the Grapefruit League. (The three highest-scoring teams this spring are in the Cactus League, as are seven of the nine highest team home-run totals.)

The Braves are also last in the majors with three stolen bases; 18 teams have double-digit totals.

Expected to be an important part of the Braves bullpen, hard-throwing prospect Arodys Vizcaino has been shut down for past two weeks and will have his injured elbow examined Monday by Dr. James Andrews.

♣ Bullpen opening? With Arodys Vizcaino shut down for the past two weeks and set to have his injured right elbow examined by Dr. James Andrews on Monday – words a pitcher never want to hear in same sentence: elbow and Dr. Andrews – it looks like there will be an extra opening in the bullpen at least in the early part of the season.

Unless the Braves make a move for another arm, the situation should increase Cory Gearrin’s chances of making the Opening Day roster. The rookie sidearmer has pitched well this spring — three hits, no earned runs allowed in 4-1/3 innings — and had a lot more success against lefties by following pitching coach Roger McDowell’s suggestion to take something off his fastball in order to get more sink on it.

The pitch works a little like a changeup and has helped Gearrin in an area where he really needed it. Last year in 18 appearances with the Braves, he limited right-handed hitters to a .143 average (6-for-42) and puny .427 OPS, including only one extra-base hit with 18 strikeouts and six walks.

But left-handed hitters scorched him for a .393 average (11-for-28) and 1.157 OPS, including four extra-base hits, seven strikeouts and six walks.

Gearrin also plans to work with Gene Garber when the former Braves sidearmer comes to camp this week as a guest instructor. Garber had a great change-up and helped sidearmer Peter Moylan hone the pitch.

♣ OK, let’s get this posted so you can read it during or after lunch. We’ll add a lineup as soon as we get it. It’s Tommy Hanson against Houston lefty Wandy Rodriguez in a night game (6:05) to be shown on Fox Sports South.

We’ll close with some greatness from The Flaming Lips, which you can see them do live before a huge crowd by clicking here.

“DO YOU REALIZE?” by The Flaming Lips (W. Coyne)

One, two, three, four -
Do you realize – that you have the most beautiful face
Do you realize – we’re floating in space -
Do you realize – that happiness makes you cry
Do you realize – that everyone you know someday will die

And instead of saying all of your goodbyes, let them know
You realize that life goes fast
It’s hard to make the good things last
You realize the sun don’t go down
It’s just an illusion caused by the world spinning round

Do you realize – Oh, oh, oh
Do you realize – that everyone you know
Someday will die

And instead of saying all of your goodbyes, let them know
You realize that life goes fast
It’s hard to make the good things last
You realize the sun don’-go down
It’s just an illusion caused by the world spinning round

Do you realize – that you have the most beautiful face
Do you realize

– David O’Brien, Braves/MIB blog

1,457 comments Add your comment

hammerinhomer

March 16th, 2012
12:44 pm

FIRST

MatthewH

March 16th, 2012
12:48 pm

Thanks for the new blog, DOB. It’s getting hard to stay positive up here in VA, but I’m trying. Let’s just hope we forget their ST record because of how well they are playing during the regular season.

richbrave

March 16th, 2012
12:49 pm

Heh!

richbrave

March 16th, 2012
12:50 pm

Danged near as many BRAVES fans here on the old blog as regulars down in GA.

ncscoots

March 16th, 2012
12:56 pm

NC is for people who like to pay higher taxes for inferior roads, schools, etc.

Then, I don’t like you so much, anymore.

Ease

March 16th, 2012
12:58 pm

What, so there is only myself?

MFin04

March 16th, 2012
1:00 pm

Hitting and pitching terribly in Spring Training is always a concern. Mostly because hitting and pitching are probably going to be important during the regular season too. You can take that to the bank!

George

March 16th, 2012
1:02 pm

The bad think about our ST record is it comes right after our awfull Sept AND the team has basicly the same players. Management did nothing to improve it, just lopped off some payroll and then did not spend what they saved.

George

March 16th, 2012
1:03 pm

thing NOT THINK

flange1

March 16th, 2012
1:03 pm

Thanks for the new blog DOB!

George

March 16th, 2012
1:05 pm

We can all go do what we need to do. No game till tonight.

Kat

March 16th, 2012
1:07 pm

David, thanks for the great new DOB blog .. perfect timing for a lunch time read.

Dutchieeeeee

March 16th, 2012
1:07 pm

Good read yet again, mr. O’Brien. Thuroughly enjoyable.

A repost from the previous blog:
Hello denizens.

Unfortunately, seems like there’s no stream tonight for the Braves-Astros. Back to gameday!

DOB, or anyone else, for that matter.
Do you know what’s going on with the Braves v Netherlands? http://www.tampabay.com/things-to-do/events/2012/3/16/st-petersburg-international-baseball/57967/
Can’t seem to find any info on it. Would be much obliged!

Kind greetings from below sea level!

J-MAN

March 16th, 2012
1:10 pm

I think that last year still haunts the Braves and their mindset. Fredi is not a “Butt-Kicker” or “Firery” guy. And with his laid back and nonconfrontational approach I don’t see how the Braves are to be made accountable. I think the Braves needed a new direction from Bobby Cox and basically they hired Bobby Cox lite. I think we could be in real trouble this season.

Atticus

March 16th, 2012
1:16 pm

DOB,

How many WS Champs the last 10 years had that kind of record? Answer: None.

Same BS coming out of the financially strapped, politically correct Braves offices……and the beat goes on.

Powderfinger

March 16th, 2012
1:18 pm

I have to admit to being concerned, even though my brain tells me it’s only spring training, etc. I’m sure a lot of it has to do with our September collapse, and I keep looking for something positive to hang my hat on so far. Wednesday night was good, especially since it was my first chance to catch them on tv. Hope we can build on that tonight.

jay

March 16th, 2012
1:18 pm

Unfortunately I think it’s going to be a long painful season.

Wil

March 16th, 2012
1:23 pm

Funny that you forgot to mention Arizona who only won 7 games last year yet won 94 during the regular season.

phil

March 16th, 2012
1:28 pm

Good read, Dave…

That said, our record is no mirage I’m afraid.

We’ll know for sure soon enough…

Murph

March 16th, 2012
1:29 pm

So long as the guys who matter, ie the guys who will be on the opening day roster, start gearing up and playing better, I don’t care if the guys who don’t matter, ie the guys who will be cut, blow every game for this team in ST.

They could go winless from now until April due to poor performances from guys who will never, ever, never make the team. Doesn’t matter, just so long as the guys who will be on the roster start rounding into form.

Uggla is playing well, Prado is playing well, there are glimpses of “The JHey Kid” starting to show in Heyward, Simmons is making a race out of things…. lots to be happy about right now, despite the horrible record.

Pitching, on the other hand…. blech. With the exception of Minor, they’ve all been pretty stinky.

Fish Bisch