1:06 pm February 25, 2012, by David O'Brien
Tomahawkin (The Godfather)
February 25th, 20122:53 pm
We can all speculate about the Rooster but come Sept 15 it will look nothing like the the team we broke camp with…
So I’m stsrting to think that the stat specualtion from the position players can get pointless unless its a rookie…And I don’t take much out of the So Called experts Prospects rankings
February 25th, 20122:55 pm
But with the Braves’ payroll, there’s no way there going to pursue somebody like Hamilton anyway, so it’s all moot.
Except when you consider Lowe’s $10 million and Chipper’s salary might be off the books
You do have to wonder who’s going to be in the outfield next year, though. I think Bourn is clearly not going to be re-signed, though the Braves could prove me wrong. (I hope not, because, as I said, I think he’s going to be overpaid). So you’ll have Heyward and who else (with Prado presumably moved to 3B)? Should be interesting… much more active offseason than the recently completed one, that’s for sure!
February 25th, 20122:56 pm
“It’s not a matter of “can’t even sign Michael Bourn.” I think Bourn is going to be overpaid, and the Braves can’t afford to overpay. Hamilton, if he’s healthy, on the other hand, is worth the big money.”
Hamilition is a BIG IF…We Have too many of those on the team as it stands, Pass…
We Can’t afford another 15 mill “If” kind of player.
Blowe and Borash0loe taught us that lesson
February 25th, 20123:01 pm
Its NOT Gonna Happen but The Team would be wise to offer Bourne a 3-33mill deal…No more Years or Money…L Media will want to do a 3-22 Mill deal, They are that Cheap
And Boras$h0!e will demand 5-60 Mill, Watch! So The Bourne Identity will go elsewhere because he got Low-balled according to his Agent
February 25th, 20123:04 pm
There is a possibility that the Braves will have some cash to spend in 2013.
2012 contracts compared to 2013 contracts:
Dan Uggla’s $13M remains the same
Chipper’s $13M could be gone or could be as low as $7M
McCann’s $11.5M becomes $12M
Hudson’s $9M remains the same, assuming they pick up his option
Bourn’s $7M comes off the books, unless they sign him to a long-term deal
Lowe’s $10 exit fee comes off the books
Everybody else will probably get an Arb increase
February 25th, 20123:07 pm
I am guessing that Boras is going to try and work is magic on Bourn for a bit more than 60m in a 5 yr span. Bourn for 12m a year I think is a good deal for both. However if Bourn signs with someone else for around 14-15m a year the Braves will get ripped. Bourn IMO is not worth 14-15m a year.
over the last 5 years in the middle of what should be the healthiest part of his life he has made 35+ Chipper look like an irinman, he will likely only get worse as he ages, and there is always the addiction issue the could strike anytime out of the blue and wreck havoc with his career. as I said at the beginning he is a player for a well off team
February 25th, 20123:09 pm
no matter how much cash they have it is too much of a risk, especially for a team that has turned into a “plat it safe” team for the last three years
February 25th, 20123:10 pm
Check. Forgot ASENCIO and MARTINEZ are both out of options.
So the bull-pen will be O’FLAHERTY, VENTERS, KIMBREL, MEDLEN, MARTINEZ, ASENCIO, and FISH if he comes through in ST. Otherwise…….VIZCAINO, or VARVARO.
So who wants to pick the fifth, sixth, and seventh pen members right now?
I say because of the lack of options and because of handiness:
5 – MARTINEZ
6 – ASENCIO
7 – FISH
February 25th, 20123:11 pm
I would never give Bourn 12mil, he is not a good hitter (88 OPS+ career) and his steals and defense is not worth that kinda money to a team with limited resourses
And I’m always right, so give it up already.
February 25th, 20123:12 pm
I think Viz will definitely be in the pen
Hamilton is one of my favorite players and yes would love to see him in a Braves uni, but he is way too big of a risk with his injury history and the dollars its going to take to sign him. Money can be spent on other players with more upside and less risk.
February 25th, 20123:15 pm
Who wants to bet LUIS DURANGO, JOSH WILSON, or DREW SUTTON makes the 25-man out of spring training? DIAZ cut, or HICKS released?
Just playing devil’s advocate here, but Hamilton has won an MVP. He also out-homered all Braves except Uggla, out-RBI’d all Braves, out-Runs’d all Braves, and out-OPS’d all Braves by 65 points
February 25th, 20123:17 pm
Honestly Bourn is not Worth more than 10 Mill but the Roid era is Over and Cheap 30 Homerun Hitters don’t Grow on trees like they did from 1996-2004
Speed and Defense are at a Premium now thats why Bourne is Gonna get “Broke Off” in a contract that is well above what he should make per diem…
Ditto for Carl Crawford…No way he Gets a 150 Mill Contract if he played in the Peak of the roid era…Where the Money went to the Pure Sluggers
February 25th, 20123:18 pm
I will be surprised if Fish makes it. I know they would like another LHer but his MiLB career has been extremely mediocre
Bourn’s agent is Boras. Hamilton’s agent is Moye. Both are ruthless.
February 25th, 20123:19 pm
“Just playing devil’s advocate here, but Hamilton has won an MVP. He also out-homered all Braves except Uggla, out-RBI’d all Braves, out-Runs’d all Braves, and out-OPS’d all Braves by 65 points”
Good Point but at the same time he played in The American League where there is inferior pitching overall and The DH…
Hamiliton stats would fall off hitting in the NL
February 25th, 20123:20 pm
Diaz not cut
Durango or Constanza but prolly not both…at least i certainly hope not both
February 25th, 20123:21 pm
And he did that in only 121 games. When he plays he is a beast. And he plays enough games overall to put up great numbers and lead his team deep into the playoffs.
February 25th, 20123:22 pm
not questioning hamilton’s ability, just his worth to the Braves vis a vis his health and addiction problems. he has really missed an awful lot of games so far for a kid. it ain’t likely to get anything but worse
1 vote for VIZ in, FISH out.
And thinking GEORGE SHERRILL’s replacement, let’s not forget FLANDE. He might surprise to the upside this spring and be a third LH option out of the pen.
February 25th, 20123:24 pm
“………Durango or Constanza but prolly not both…at least i certainly hope not both……..” nolie
You and me both.
February 25th, 20123:25 pm
bayou i haven’t been scouting around but hamilton isn’t the answer for this cheap payroll,
they need an undiscovered bryce harper type
February 25th, 20123:27 pm
Toma, I agree with you in regards to Bourn and his worth. I was being realistic as far as what he will get. And of course everyone can cry how chip LM is for the Braves not signing Bourn to 14-15m a year.
February 25th, 20123:28 pm
or we could cry how incredibly stupid they were for signing him to a 14-15 mil contract
February 25th, 20123:29 pm
Who wants a player who routinely hits .275/.325/.375 and plays 160 games? I want a guy that is two years removed from .359/.411/.633 in 133 games.
Take a risk. It might work, it might not, but it will be exciting. The Braves already have plenty of safe players.
And I’m talking about Hamilton effectively replacing Chipper, so it’s not like we would have both of their injury risk factors at the same time.
Not trying to be rude or question the legitimacy of your work DOB, but what exactly are you doing that takes 11-13 hours a day? Your articles are great, but it’s hardly 11-13 hour stuff.
February 25th, 20123:31 pm
Sounds like we have some consensus on Bourn’s worth… don’t get me wrong, he’s a good, solid player, and defensively it’s good to see him out there. But I’m a Moneyballer on the stolen bases– I think they are hugely overrated, and that’s his big statistical asset. He doesn’t have a great OBP and isn’t a slugger, so– where’s the value? Speed, which should get you some but not the big bucks, in my opinion. (Sounds like Chipper agrees with that assessment, incidentally, based on his quotes).
February 25th, 20123:32 pm
I agree, by the way, Tomahawkin– I think Hamilton is too much of a risk, though he’s definitely a premier talent. Braves can’t swing and miss like the Yankees or Boston, though.
If Chip is not back next year- “Terd” will be 2013’s rookie and man 3rd- hopefully for a long time- Martin will stay put in lf – Martin’s outfield defense should be improved after last season in left
February 25th, 20123:33 pm
George – Yeah, I rarely come in first in posts – it’s usually those insomniacs on the West Coast and their Sidekick Tom.
I guess that sometime in the course of the eight seasons (starting #8), it was bound to happen.
February 25th, 20123:34 pm
i’m borrowing this contract issue from another poster but for bourn , i agree that 38 million 4 year guaranteed is most id go, with team option for 12 million or 2 million buyout. 5 year 50 million deal.
take it or leave
ncgary, so you don’t think the Braves will spend the $10M (Lowe), $13M* (Chipper), $7M (Bourn) coming off the books in 2013? You want/expect payroll to drop by as much as $30M? Arbitration raises won’t come close to $30M, maybe $10M. Plus, Terry McGuirk has already said that the Braves are $4M underbudget this year.
So that’s up to $34M available in 2013.
Nolie is not on the west coast
February 25th, 20123:36 pm
Lew is kinda like the Adam of the blog, one of it’s earliest creations…
February 25th, 20123:37 pm
Bourn isn’t an elite player. He shouldn’t be paid like one.
That said, enjoy him while he’s here, he’s still a really valuable player.
February 25th, 20123:39 pm
hard to say bb still a lot of baseball to be played between then and now.
hamilton is good , you are right , but with liberty at the helm
i don’t see it happening
they just said the other day that the Braves are losing 6 mil this year right now, pretty unlikely they are gonna spend another 4 yet this season. and i do indeed expect the payroll to go down some next season, everything else about the Braves spending is doing so, like draft spending and not sending out MLB scouts anymore.
February 25th, 20123:40 pm
I still wouldn’t rule Bourn being a Brave for more than just one more season. It depends on what they get from Heyward this season. If he is back then they won’t feel the need to get a slugger this offseason. Pitching is set for years. They could spend a good chunk to keep MB around.
nolie, I will take all of the LM bashing for being cheap and not paying him big dollars than strapping them down for a huge amount.
Kyle, you have no idea whata beat writer’s job entails in the Internet era. Including the hours spent waiting in the clubhouse for an interview or on the field watching workouts, taking Twitpics at workouts, transcribing a lot of interviews to be used for daily stories now and features later, etc., in addition to the time spent actually writing.
But I really don’t feel the need or desire to giving you a minute-by-minute accounting of my work day down here. Suffice to say, it begins at 6:30 a.m. with me online answering questions, checking around baseball and doing research for articles before heading to the ballpark at 7:30 a.m. (Except for two days this week when I got up at 4 a.m. to write a main blog before going to the ballpark.) I have left this ballpark to go back to the condo each day for the past week between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m.
If you think any portion of that day is spent doing something other than working here, then you obviously haven’t been to ESPN’s Wide World of Sports. Because there isn’t anything else we’d be doing here except working. After I get back to the condo, I generally do another hour or two online, answering questions on Twitter or on my own blog, when there are good ones.
Now enjoy your weekend, Kyle.
February 25th, 20123:42 pm
ideally , i think another 10 million added to payroll this year along with the 4 million they haven’t spent yet, would have been enough to make a lot less question marks this year. who knows though. if the question marks stay healthy and have career norm years or better ,
this could be the year……..:)
February 25th, 20123:43 pm
nolie – There were bunches here before me – I’m pretty sure I was here pretty soon after it started, but not sure when it did start (I was here around July of 05). Scoots and some of the Lost Posters were here before me, though.
When did DOB’s handiwork first show up here in blogland?
yeah me too Ray, just stating what i think is pretty obvious, funds are limited and big risks are not gonna be taken.
Brian just because the might have extra money is no reason to overspend on a player more than his value.
February 25th, 20123:45 pm
nolie,fuzzy math by the accountants can make any enterprise a loser.
February 25th, 20123:46 pm
DOB – don’t even bother answering idiots like Kyle. Don’t know why anyone like him even bothers to read the blog.
Thanks for the GREAT work and info that you pass along to all of us who really are Braves fans.
yeah The Lost Posters, I remember some of that but I was just reading at the time.
ah DOB, you’re not all THAT big a jackball…… most prolly don’t think so at all
thanks for putting up with all us quirky people.
oh the humanity of it all
February 25th, 20123:48 pm
I don’t think fuzzy math has all that much to do with it CB, but i could be wrong though God knows it would be an unusual experience for me………
Lew, sent you a Bad Co link on page one..
speaking of the beginning, I was there, back when toes were not to be trifled with..
February 25th, 20123:49 pm
good question Lew, maybe David will remind us what the date of his first blog was
Braves should offer Bourn a 5 year 50 million deal with a Option for a 6th season. That’s a rock solid offer to atleast show us fans they did try to extend him.
DOB epitomizes the phrase that I am fond of: “Don’t worry about the mule, just load the wagon!”
Keep up the great work buddy!
February 25th, 20123:51 pm
About David O’Brien
David O’Brien is a Greenville, N.C., native and a graduate of the University of Kansas. He’s covered major league baseball since 1995, as a Marlins beat writer for seven years at the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, and since 2002 as Braves beat writer for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution
nolie,God knows you lie a lot. LOL
February 25th, 20123:52 pm
any bloggers going to the supercross tonight?
I like to run my mouth and poke no doubt, but anybody who seriously believes that DOB is nothing special is a total Robert-level nut-job
February 25th, 20123:53 pm
Blog Monitor – Thanks – actually got to see two versions of Bad Co. over the years – first time in MIami, Kansas blew them off the stage and the second – in St. Pete was after a rock and roll exhibition of my paintings at a Damn Yankees/ Bad Co. show. Paul Rodgers was not with them the second time.
You ever get into a band called Dirty Looks? Been listening a lot to them lately.
What happened to Robert? And willieg? And Mitchell?
not me CB, I is a truthtalker
Jeffrey, thanks for that date. I was not aware that it was quite that long ago
February 25th, 20123:54 pm
no offense to the bench players
but that does look like the glaring weakness this team faces
heres hoping i’m wrong and they all have career years
jeffrey d – I’m not sure he started the blog that far back.
February 25th, 20123:55 pm
So, If Liberty Media counted Lowe’s $10M salary against last year’s profit and loss… doesn’t that mean we should have that $10M free to spend this season?
Lowe’s $10M and and the $4-5M being held, we could have gotten a better 4th OFer than Durango or Costanza. Maybe a Cody Ross. That would have made the bench much stronger.
they are just waiting for things to be bad so they can be happy whining on the ol’ blog.jeffrey
DOB you are not a jackball NTTAWWT
Did DOB start the blog in 2002?
February 25th, 20123:56 pm
I too think that right now on paper anyway that the bench is weakest part of the team
DOB, well put. Nolie, yeah I have said a few times when teams have the payrolls of the Yankees or Phils, you can make a mistake. So what. Teams like the Braves and others, have to make sure their signings are more careful. It can be the difference of them contending for years or spiraling down for a few.
February 25th, 20123:57 pm
Robert and Mitchell have made appearances recently.
February 25th, 20123:58 pm
Somebody send O’Brien a sammich before I develop anordyslexia nirvana.
Lowe’s pay is still an operating expense this year that must fit into this years budget. which effectively means that the actual Braves payroll will be 10mil under the budget
A NYT nostalgia piece about the mediocre 1969 Yankees–The Damned Yankees: The Yankees of Mediocrity Had Their Own Strange Charisma
February 25th, 20123:59 pm
Colorado,they will probably count it again this year. You know,fuzzy math.
I started on the blog during the off season of 2005/2006. I have heard that it was started a couple of years earlier. And in the beginning, wasn’t there a charge for entry?
On another subject, I LOVE the Nutrisystem commercial with Terry Bradshaw! “Ain’t I purty!”
DOB I’d pay to have you’re job, baseball all day, discussions etc…..but you have to really like it
February 25th, 20124:00 pm
Did we even have the internet back in? Were blogs just us mailing in comments?
February 25th, 20124:02 pm
Correct biggest weakness is the bench. Jack Wilson is already hurt and only has defensive value. Hinske hit like 190. last season as a pinch hitter, struck out a ton and is a statue in the outfield, Diaz has lost his power and seen his OPS drop 2 season’s in a row and is a singles hitter vs LHP.
jeffrey,I am old enough to remember when computers were big as houses.
February 25th, 20124:03 pm
Lew, never heard of Dirty Looks, who is in the band?
Unfortunately I never got to see Bad Company..
Did see Kansas several times though, saw them with Aerosmith, and Ted Nugent, many, many years ago.. they were great..
DOB: is my opinion that you don’t have to give a play by play of yours job duty to us…you always been doing a great job for us for so many year since you came from Miami….Always love you posting and info of the Braves.
internet as we know it with commercial traffic started in mid 90s
February 25th, 20124:06 pm
Blog Monitor – They’ve been together since the eighties and have a list of people – none of whom I’ve ver heard of. Straight out rock and roll, hard but not particularly metal or that heavy – maybe like hard punk, but really good.
I had a CD of theirs from years ago called Cool To The Wire and thought they were a two cd band and out, but just found out that they’re still going strong. They’re worth a listen.
When did Al Gore invent the internet? I thought that was in the 80’s?
I actually worked on some early computer systems at UC Berkeley’s Library card catalog system that was an early version of the internet. That was roughly in 1980. Not sure if this was before or after the TCP/IP era began?
Coach (2012 Fredi's beisbol fandango)
Enter your comments here
February 25th, 20124:07 pm
I remember when a phone call would kill your internet connection then you’d have to wait through 5 minutes of EEEEEEEEEEEEYONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!!!! before getting back on.
February 25th, 20124:08 pm
Dial up was wonderful….NOT.
in ‘65 I programmed for a 1401, had 4K memory on a huge circuit board and was about as big as a VW.
February 25th, 20124:09 pm
This would be a good point for me, your blogmeister, to point out that those who use the axiom “speed never slumps” are only are half-correct. Because while speed might not slump, the hitter with the speed certainly can.
Pretty much correct. Doesn’t do the team any good when your lead off hitter can’t get on base. Nobody can steal first. Bourn should rectify our lack of lead off ability in recent years.
Please no Josh Hamilton. Talented player for sure. Big questions not only his health, but his chances of relapse, which hopefully will not happen.
Blog Monitor – I’ve been lucky – saw Kansas at least seven times and actually met their violinist, Robbie Steinhardt several times – he lived in the St. Pete/Clearwater are for years (still does as far as I know). Last time I saw him we talked before a Jethro Tull show in Clearwater. Nice Dude.
Steve Tyler bought one of my rocka and roll paintings.
February 25th, 20124:10 pm
The communications processors I worked on back in 1979 with NCR-Comten were as large as a couple of fridge’s strapped together. The earlier systems had 64K of memory spread over 10 memory boards. I repaired to the chip level back in those days. Probably had 20-30 memory chips to account for that 64K of memory.
We’re not in Kansas anymore, Toto!
The Blogger Formerly Known as Billy
DOB is cranky.
B4 around ‘95 the “internet” was very limited with no commercial traffic
February 25th, 20124:13 pm
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