If the team tanks and no one tunes in, the TV contract is going to be a cushion to the TV company
Peachtree is paying the Braves for the rights to broadcast their games, and making their money in selling advertising… if nobody watches, Peachtree is going to end up losing a lot of money.
But not in a more favorable contract to the Braves. If Peachtree is losing money on a deal that is already favorable to them, they aren’t going to chuck the deal so they can negotiate a less favorable deal.
Yeah. I mean, it might just be me, but I do not remember ever wanting to renegotiate a contract because I wanted worse terms.
Now, I suppose it’s possible that another vendor might offer to buy the rights from the current vendor, paying the current vendor a premium for doing so, and then negotiate a new contract with the Braves (I doubt that the rights are transferable between parties). But there’s simply no incentive for the current vendor to pay the Braves more than the price already contracted.
Jimmy – I have no idea what the Braves take is, but I’m sure it isn’t in that ballpark.
——————————————————————————————————————
That’s been my point since reading the article at Philly.com this morning. The Braves TV deal runs for 2 more decades. There is no way they are going to be able to compete with teams getting new big revenue TV deals. Braves fans already are feeling this with Bourn. Not many fans believe the Braves will sign him because his agent will point him to one of the teams with the big TV money. It was no coincidence that Scott Boras was quoted in the article. He is well aware of where the money will be in upcoming years.
I think the only reason they matter is the 25+ years of Braves TV rights they currently possess. Not being in the area, I have no idea what else they air. I’m guessing lots of Heehaw and Gomer Pyle reruns.
I think the only reason they matter is the 25+ years of Braves TV rights they currently possess. Not being in the area, I have no idea what else they air. I’m guessing lots of Heehaw and Gomer Pyle reruns.
Not far from it. Mostly reruns of Family Guy, The Office, and Big Bang Theory. Oh, and all the Tyler Perry shows.
Murph, February 14th, 2012, 12:48 pm … “imagine the Braves are losing 100 games a season and Peachtree is getting 500k viewers during games. Going to be hard for them to turn a profit when the advertisers are paying 1/4 for the same ad time while Peachtree is still paying the same amount to the Braves for the rights to televise their games.”
This is actually how the deal works in the Braves favor (i.e. it is the good part of having a long contract). The Braves make a profit on both guaranteed TV revenue + low payroll. They can milk that thing til Peachtree goes out of business, and they can negotiate a new contract.
Those big TV deals, just like the big payrolls, are a two-edged sword. So what if Media Giant agrees to pay the Phillies $100B over 10 years. If revenues don’t provide Media Giant the cash, they cannot pay the Phillies what they owe. Bankruptcy ensues, new revenues are set.
So Peachtree is basically an exact duplicate of TBS, only with the Braves games during the season? Do you get both Peachtree and TBS? If so, do they show the same episodes of The Office on both or do they at least mix it up a little?
I’m guessing lots of Heehaw and Gomer Pyle reruns.
That’s pretty much what was coming to mind with me also. I’m guessing no matter how bad the Braves are, they will still be the featured programing on that channel. But then again, I don’t live in the area either.
Peachtree is paying the Braves for the rights to broadcast their games, and making their money in selling advertising… if nobody watches, Peachtree is going to end up losing a lot of money.
Right. The point at which a TV/broadcast company approaches a team to renegotiate is when they are losing money and wish to lower the cost of broadcasting, not increase it.
I could not find talk of the season premiere of ‘The Walking Dead’. I really enjoyed it – especially the last 10 minutes when Rick got stone cold. Loved it. Gotta protect your own in dark times.
Good point abeee… didn’t think about that. I s’pose the Braves could just embrace losing like they did in the 80’s and ride the wave, turning a profit as an organization regardless of zero attendance or tv viewers.
Well, it’s really just a future power ranking teams 21-30. The Braves weren’t in there but the Marlins and Mets were. It incorporates major and minor league talent, finances, management(ownership, front office and on-field coaching staff) and mobility(do they have a lot of young, controllable talent, cheap players or old immovable guys?).
So Peachtree is basically an exact duplicate of TBS, only with the Braves games during the season? Do you get both Peachtree and TBS? If so, do they show the same episodes of The Office on both or do they at least mix it up a little?
I do get both. They mix it up slightly, but every now and then you will have the weird situation where their schedules are only different by about 30 minutes, so you can watch a show on Peachtree, then switch to TBS as soon as it’s over and the same episode will be starting again.
They also have Seinfeld I think (which is also a TBS staple).
All of their other programing is stuff like the “Tuesday Night Movie”, where they will play some crappy movie from the 90’s 3 times in a row. I think I saw an ad for Arachnaphobia the other day.
Right. The point at which a TV/broadcast company approaches a team to renegotiate is when they are losing money and wish to lower the cost of broadcasting, not increase it.
At which point I would hope the Braves’ execs point out that the team is no longer competitive due to the crappy TV deal and explain how the deal needs to be a partnership… more TV money = better players = wins = more TV viewers = higher ad revenues.
If Peachtree doesn’t see it the Braves can do what abeee mentioned and just let them whither and die while driving by the Peachtree offices daily, throwing eggs and yelling “How do you like your deal now???”
turning a profit as an organization regardless of zero attendance or tv viewers.
The match ups will be the driving force, as always. Two last place teams draw less than one last place team and one wildly popular team (BoSox, Yankees, Phillies, etc).
In the mean time it’ll be easy to square away nice seats at plenty of games for relatively less.
And it’s also for the next five years. It’s really awkwardly set up in terms of copy and pasting with a stupid bar graph in the middle of each team – I will paste when the Braves are featured, but getting all ten teams in there…..
Here is a sample:
26. New York Mets
LAST SEASON: 77-85 (fourth place NL East)
The lowdown
Maybe the most laughable line delivered by any baseball executive over the past decade came from Mets owner Fred Wilpon, who told reporters that the pending Madoff case wouldn’t affect the way the team did its baseball business. Except at the time Wilpon said it, he wasn’t kidding, because he either couldn’t or didn’t foresee the way the litigation would wreck the Mets’ cash flow.
They didn’t bid to keep Jose Reyes in this offseason, and neither did they make any other substantial acquistions. As Adam Rubin of ESPN New York.com reported, the Mets’ owners have affected the greatest single-season reduction in payroll in baseball history. The situation cannot get better until there is a resolution in the Madoff case, in whatever direction this takes the Mets — either to a final accounting of debt that will enable the Wilpons to take their payroll forward, or through the sale of the team. Until that happens, Mets fans will have to wallow in inertia, near the bottom of an extremely competitive NL East. — Buster Olney
The next step
Though it would be an extremely unpopular move, trading David Wright must be a consideration. Problem is, he has a 2013 option on his contract that disappears if he is traded this year. The Mets should hope the new, shorter fences at Citi Field will help Wright’s power numbers, and then look to trade him next winter once they have picked up his option and his trade value has increased. — Jim Bowden
Murph … what you’re also missing from my diatribe is that the Angels, Rangers, Phillies, et al, have the same issues, it’s just that the price point is higher.
If the Braves don’t generate pitiful revenue, Peachtree goes down.
If the Angels, Rangers, Phillies don’t generate premium bank, Media Giant goes down.
To which the company will say, “Great. So glad we got a cut rate deal in place instead of a bloated one.”
That article pointed out that the Angels have one of the worst TV ratings in the game and they signed a big TV deal. From the sound of it, the Braves would have to become an absolute pariah to the community and nation as a whole before the deal becomes unprofitable for the TV/Broadcasting company.
abeee, that’s true… another thing you’ll see when more teams have signed mega-deals is that they’ll all be fighting over a dwindling pool of mega-free agents. When most of the superstars are signed to 10 year deals and a new team enters the mega-deal fray, they are going to be sh*t outta luck when looking to make a splash with a big named player. Mega-deal goes mega-bust in year one.
I’m not sure the blog is fully conversant with the cost of television advertising. Plus, advertising in a sporting event usually goes for a premium over normal advertising (targeted audience, long viewing span, multiple product impressions, etc. That bleep ain’t cheap.) Thus, ratings are a less important component of the rates paid for sporting events.
Even if that were not the case, ratings for a Braves’ team losing 100, or winning 100, are only going to vary marginally, not significantly. It’s just the nature of the beast. The broadcast product has value waaaay beyond the quality of the team it shows. The Astros’ rumored deal is a case in point.
Other agents will follow Boras’ lead and keep a sharp eye on the teams getting big TV revenues in the near future. That said, I don’t see many agents calling on the Braves on behalf of their clients. Baseball is in for big changes as this influx of TV monies comes into play. The Braves deal only guarantees they will not be invited to the party.
Q and A with Shanks on upcoming season. I thought it was interesting Charlie Manuel predicted during last season that our pen would wear down come September. I’d never read this before. He ws right.
True, ad space in a sporting event especially a baseball team’s games are a package deal and is that of a premium. And what they may do if they are having any trouble selling the spots or you have a brand that is shrewd, they will negotiate other ads outside of the package.
Don’t know if you purchased it, but the 2012 Baseball Prospectus book came out today for digital distribution (Kindle). In reading the Braves section they get pretty in depth about the change in draft philosphy from the “glory days” to the current philsophy being used by DeMacio. Basically gone from signing high-upside players from Georgia that would sign for cheap to taking low ceiling, high floor college players that are likely to become big leaguers, but not stars.
from Georgia that would sign for cheap to taking low ceiling, high floor college players that are likely to become big leaguers, but not stars.
Such a two edged sword. I like the young, high-upside. And while I thought it was cool some many local kids would come up and be truly a “home town guy,” in the back of my mind I always wondered if they were passing on other guys with even better upside simply to get the local kid.
The more recent approach I’m no fan of. And if they are to continue grabbing these polished college lefties I hope they start flipping them for some talented young high-upside hitters.
One thing that I think is missing from their description of the Braves’ change in philosphy is that when they were getting the high upside guys from backwoods GA there was much less media coverage of prep prospects, and you didn’t have Baseball America, Keith Law, and Kevin Goldstein all touting a guy’s ability before he graduated high school. Not only was it harder for teams to find players without this coverage, but the players themselves had no idea how they were viewed by the scouting community as a whole. For the most part there WASN’T a public scouting community, since it was in each teams’ best interest to keep scouting opinions to themselves, to avoid some other team swooping in and drafting a guy they wanted.
In that environment, the Braves old system of drafting worked great, because they got to know these kids who were really good prospects, but when they drafted them the kids didn’t know any better but to sign for a lowish number, since they couldn’t easily pull up their profile on Baseball America saying that they ought to be a top-10 pick. With more information available to the public, the Braves are not able to get those type of players on the cheap anymore, so have switched to a different strategy to execute their “low risk” philosophy. Just a change in the times….will be really interesting to see what they do going forward though (with new draft caps in place).
RC, that’s an interesting angle at 3:33. Hadn’t thought of it that way before, but that makes some sense. Will definitely be interesting to see the new philosphy with the new draft cap structure…
RC, it wasn’t that long ago though. It’s been about 2 years worth of the change. People knew the real good high-upside prospects way back then.
I see your point though. Going forward the pervasive information age is shining a light on more and more of these kids before the draft. But, I don’t think that was the reason for the switch.
I can’t think of anyone they have used that strategy with lately except for maybe Heyward, and they went to MAJOR lengths to try and hide him from other teams.
I thought this was the last year Peachtree TV would have the Braves, or is that an old story? DOB wrote a column about this time last year stating the Meredith Corp. was buying Peachtree TV from Turner, but I can’t find a follow-up to that article. It stated that Fox would produce the games for Peachtree TV, but I thought there was a story somewhere that all the games would be on Fox and Sports South after this year, but I could be mistaken or the story changed since last year.
I was just checking in during one of my all-too-infrequent-blog visits these days, ( I sorely miss regularly talking with you guys, but enjoy being busy. In addition, quite a bit of long distance dating is “to blame”.), noticed your interest in Vince Gill, and see you’ve added his Guitar Slinger to your CD collection, and want to recommend High Lonesome Sound as a candidate for your next Gill purchase. He performs the title tune with Alison Krauss and Union Station and a couple more interesting cuts are “Pretty Little Adrianna”,(which he wrote after reading a newspaper story about a missing child in the Nashville area a few years ago) and “Jenny Dreamed Of Trains”.
You may already have heard or read the story, but on Guitar Slinger there is a cut titled “Threaten Me With Heaven”, which is about his father in law who–upon deciding do stop chemo treatments for cancer–asked, “So what are they going to do. Threaten me with heaven?” His father in law was a minister
and they went to MAJOR lengths to try and hide him from other teams.
Yeah. I read that. But even in that draft there were popular young players, well known. I just think that while it might be correct that the free flowing of info makes it harder to pick young players for yourself, the Braves seemed to have changed philosophy for a different reason.
That might be a question DOB could ask Wren if he doesn’t already know. What is the reasoning of changing philosophies or is it that they went with what they felt was the best available and lately it has been college pitchers.
ken – you’re right. Fox is producing all the Peachtree games right now and this is the last year Braves games will be on Peachtree anyway. All Fox after this season.
Thanks ! Good to see your name pop up while I’m “here”. In fact–when I checked in a week or so ago–I believe you told uga-brave you had finally re-located back here in our Atlanta area; to which I replied, “Full circle”. It’s Smyrna if memory serves correct, right?
fropm MLBTR: The White Sox announced that they have agreed to sign Kosuke F* to a one-year, $1MM contract that includes a club option for 2013. The outfielder will earn $500K in 2012 and the $3.5MM option for 2013 includes a $500K buyout.
i know he isnt all that good, but dude can play a little center and had a .346 OBP last year. i mean…not even a consideration for the bench at $500k?
haggard, yes, you are right. My house is about 5 miles from where I grew up and went to grammar school, and I am close to my family and friends. That makes all the difference in the world for peace of mind.
Santa brought me “Stompin’ Room Only” by The Marshall Tucker Band, and 2 Rolling Stones new extended albums with lots of new cuts: “Exile On Main Street” and “Some Girls”. Their outtakes are better than anything they put out in the past 25 years, so I broke my house and neighborhood in right! Now I’m saving for The Beach Boys “Smile” which they finally did right and put the whole thing out.
2011–>2012
Heyward .708 OPS–>.831
Uggla .764 OPS–>.810
Chipper .814 OPS–>.839 (they must think he will be injured quite a bit however)
Freeman .795 OPS–>.809
DOB – I know that your knowledge of the TV deal is limited because in all honesty it’s not first on your list of “things I need to write about” but if you do talk to a team or TV official about it can you ask about an “out clause”? With the types of deals teams are getting now it seems like it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to pay some money to get out of it so we can get a bigger deal with someone else… — Jbailz
So you now own ‘Stompin’ Room Only”. I do believe it was on your Christmas wish list. One of the cuts–”This Ol’ Cowboy”–held a certain charm when Toy Caldwell handled lead vocals on the “Where We All Belong” version, (and I was a little confused when I first saw the original MTB in concert, Tommy Calwell said, “We’d like to do a song for ya’ called This OL’ Cowboy” and Doug Gray stepped to the mike to handle the lead), but I love Gray’s vocals on the “Stompin’ Room” version. Plus, I’d love to hear the Stones deluxe editions as their nod to disco–”Miss You”–is one of my favorite cuts. “Smile” is great. That I do own.
Hello everyone! Being a braves in Montana. I would like to know how many gameswill be shown here? At least you can get Peach Tree TV. I’m screwed,beccause I have to find the games On ESPN,and Fox TV. Can’t watch the Braves like I used too.
I was so mad about that,and thought TBS sold the Braves out.I haven’t watched TBS in years,and only if I see a Braves game.I call it the loser Channel now.
Chipper Jones (.278/.378/.461, .839 OPS, 14 HR, 56 RBI in 356 AB)
That works out to about 23 doubles on the season. It would also drop his career line to about .303/.401/.530/.931… Dangerously close to losing the 300/400/500 mark.
Ward – the Direct TV baseball package is great. We get all the games. Only problem in VA is that we get the Nats broadcast when the Braves are playing them.
If he were to play this year and next year at that level he’d be right on the brink of losing the 3/4/5 trifecta. And if he pushed it one extra year to grasp at 500 HR, he’d fall short and lose the 3/4/5 triangle.
110 game projection for Chipper is a bit pessimistic. I don’t see him playing 145 but I don’t see him in the 110 range either. A guess of about 125-130 range.
Ward, me to. Put up with Gameday and radio for for a couple of years and could not stand it anymore and switched from DISH to DIRECT TV so I could get Extra Innings, love it. Can’t wait.
Hi! Good to see you and sorry I missed your post…hope you’re still lurking about…
Thanks, I’ll have to check out “High Lonesome Sound”—sounds like a good one! Most of his CDs seem to be a pretty good price on Amazon.com…
You may already have heard or read the story, but on Guitar Slinger there is a cut titled “Threaten Me With Heaven”, which is about his father in law who–upon deciding do stop chemo treatments for cancer–asked, “So what are they going to do. Threaten me with heaven?” His father in law was a minister
Actually, I hadn’t read that, so thanks for sharing! Aw…that’s one of my favorites from the CD, too.
2,326 comments Add your comment
Murph
February 14th, 2012
1:33 pm
If the team tanks and no one tunes in, the TV contract is going to be a cushion to the TV company
Peachtree is paying the Braves for the rights to broadcast their games, and making their money in selling advertising… if nobody watches, Peachtree is going to end up losing a lot of money.
ncscoots
February 14th, 2012
1:33 pm
But not in a more favorable contract to the Braves. If Peachtree is losing money on a deal that is already favorable to them, they aren’t going to chuck the deal so they can negotiate a less favorable deal.
Yeah. I mean, it might just be me, but I do not remember ever wanting to renegotiate a contract because I wanted worse terms.
Now, I suppose it’s possible that another vendor might offer to buy the rights from the current vendor, paying the current vendor a premium for doing so, and then negotiate a new contract with the Braves (I doubt that the rights are transferable between parties). But there’s simply no incentive for the current vendor to pay the Braves more than the price already contracted.
JRW
February 14th, 2012
1:35 pm
Jimmy – I have no idea what the Braves take is, but I’m sure it isn’t in that ballpark.
——————————————————————————————————————
That’s been my point since reading the article at Philly.com this morning. The Braves TV deal runs for 2 more decades. There is no way they are going to be able to compete with teams getting new big revenue TV deals. Braves fans already are feeling this with Bourn. Not many fans believe the Braves will sign him because his agent will point him to one of the teams with the big TV money. It was no coincidence that Scott Boras was quoted in the article. He is well aware of where the money will be in upcoming years.
Efrim
February 14th, 2012
1:37 pm
Not sure if this was posted, but very cool piece on ESPN.com: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7562207/mlb-future-power-rankings-2012-nos-30-21
Arkansas Transplant
February 14th, 2012
1:37 pm
Is Peachtree TV really a network that matters? Much less generates much revenue?
Murph
February 14th, 2012
1:38 pm
Can you copy/paste the article Efrim? Ich nicht Insider Access gehaben.
Murph
February 14th, 2012
1:40 pm
Is Peachtree TV really a network that matters?
I think the only reason they matter is the 25+ years of Braves TV rights they currently possess. Not being in the area, I have no idea what else they air. I’m guessing lots of Heehaw and Gomer Pyle reruns.
RC
February 14th, 2012
1:43 pm
Is Peachtree TV really a network that matters?
I think the only reason they matter is the 25+ years of Braves TV rights they currently possess. Not being in the area, I have no idea what else they air. I’m guessing lots of Heehaw and Gomer Pyle reruns.
Not far from it. Mostly reruns of Family Guy, The Office, and Big Bang Theory. Oh, and all the Tyler Perry shows.
DAP
February 14th, 2012
1:43 pm
yeah, im not an insider either, but id love to read it.
abeeewright
February 14th, 2012
1:43 pm
Murph, February 14th, 2012, 12:48 pm … “imagine the Braves are losing 100 games a season and Peachtree is getting 500k viewers during games. Going to be hard for them to turn a profit when the advertisers are paying 1/4 for the same ad time while Peachtree is still paying the same amount to the Braves for the rights to televise their games.”
This is actually how the deal works in the Braves favor (i.e. it is the good part of having a long contract). The Braves make a profit on both guaranteed TV revenue + low payroll. They can milk that thing til Peachtree goes out of business, and they can negotiate a new contract.
Those big TV deals, just like the big payrolls, are a two-edged sword. So what if Media Giant agrees to pay the Phillies $100B over 10 years. If revenues don’t provide Media Giant the cash, they cannot pay the Phillies what they owe. Bankruptcy ensues, new revenues are set.
Murph
February 14th, 2012
1:45 pm
So Peachtree is basically an exact duplicate of TBS, only with the Braves games during the season? Do you get both Peachtree and TBS? If so, do they show the same episodes of The Office on both or do they at least mix it up a little?
Arkansas Transplant
February 14th, 2012
1:45 pm
I’m guessing lots of Heehaw and Gomer Pyle reruns.
That’s pretty much what was coming to mind with me also. I’m guessing no matter how bad the Braves are, they will still be the featured programing on that channel. But then again, I don’t live in the area either.
TennesseePaul
February 14th, 2012
1:46 pm
Peachtree is paying the Braves for the rights to broadcast their games, and making their money in selling advertising… if nobody watches, Peachtree is going to end up losing a lot of money.
Right. The point at which a TV/broadcast company approaches a team to renegotiate is when they are losing money and wish to lower the cost of broadcasting, not increase it.
Efrim
February 14th, 2012
1:46 pm
I could not find talk of the season premiere of ‘The Walking Dead’. I really enjoyed it – especially the last 10 minutes when Rick got stone cold. Loved it. Gotta protect your own in dark times.
Arkansas Transplant
February 14th, 2012
1:47 pm
I just know that channel didn’t exsist when I did.
Murph
February 14th, 2012
1:47 pm
Good point abeee… didn’t think about that. I s’pose the Braves could just embrace losing like they did in the 80’s and ride the wave, turning a profit as an organization regardless of zero attendance or tv viewers.
TennesseePaul
February 14th, 2012
1:47 pm
Mostly reruns of Family Guy, The Office, and Big Bang Theory. Oh, and all the Tyler Perry shows.
So it is entirely just TBS.
Arkansas Transplant
February 14th, 2012
1:48 pm
Efrim, that was some serious draw speed, huh?
Arkansas Transplant
February 14th, 2012
1:48 pm
So it is entirely just TBS
without the national viewing audience I assume.
ncscoots
February 14th, 2012
1:48 pm
especially the last 10 minutes when Rick got stone cold.
Instantly made me wonder, “Who’s faster on the draw? Rick or Raylan?”
Efrim
February 14th, 2012
1:49 pm
Well, it’s really just a future power ranking teams 21-30. The Braves weren’t in there but the Marlins and Mets were. It incorporates major and minor league talent, finances, management(ownership, front office and on-field coaching staff) and mobility(do they have a lot of young, controllable talent, cheap players or old immovable guys?).
abeeewright
February 14th, 2012
1:49 pm
nolie, February 14th, 2012, 12:50 pm … “I know lots of businesses that went out of business”
That’s the ultimate “opt-out clause.”
RC
February 14th, 2012
1:49 pm
So Peachtree is basically an exact duplicate of TBS, only with the Braves games during the season? Do you get both Peachtree and TBS? If so, do they show the same episodes of The Office on both or do they at least mix it up a little?
I do get both. They mix it up slightly, but every now and then you will have the weird situation where their schedules are only different by about 30 minutes, so you can watch a show on Peachtree, then switch to TBS as soon as it’s over and the same episode will be starting again.
They also have Seinfeld I think (which is also a TBS staple).
All of their other programing is stuff like the “Tuesday Night Movie”, where they will play some crappy movie from the 90’s 3 times in a row. I think I saw an ad for Arachnaphobia the other day.
Murph
February 14th, 2012
1:51 pm
Right. The point at which a TV/broadcast company approaches a team to renegotiate is when they are losing money and wish to lower the cost of broadcasting, not increase it.
At which point I would hope the Braves’ execs point out that the team is no longer competitive due to the crappy TV deal and explain how the deal needs to be a partnership… more TV money = better players = wins = more TV viewers = higher ad revenues.
If Peachtree doesn’t see it the Braves can do what abeee mentioned and just let them whither and die while driving by the Peachtree offices daily, throwing eggs and yelling “How do you like your deal now???”
TennesseePaul
February 14th, 2012
1:52 pm
turning a profit as an organization regardless of zero attendance or tv viewers.
The match ups will be the driving force, as always. Two last place teams draw less than one last place team and one wildly popular team (BoSox, Yankees, Phillies, etc).
In the mean time it’ll be easy to square away nice seats at plenty of games for relatively less.
Efrim
February 14th, 2012
1:53 pm
And it’s also for the next five years. It’s really awkwardly set up in terms of copy and pasting with a stupid bar graph in the middle of each team – I will paste when the Braves are featured, but getting all ten teams in there…..
Here is a sample:
26. New York Mets
LAST SEASON: 77-85 (fourth place NL East)
The lowdown
Maybe the most laughable line delivered by any baseball executive over the past decade came from Mets owner Fred Wilpon, who told reporters that the pending Madoff case wouldn’t affect the way the team did its baseball business. Except at the time Wilpon said it, he wasn’t kidding, because he either couldn’t or didn’t foresee the way the litigation would wreck the Mets’ cash flow.
They didn’t bid to keep Jose Reyes in this offseason, and neither did they make any other substantial acquistions. As Adam Rubin of ESPN New York.com reported, the Mets’ owners have affected the greatest single-season reduction in payroll in baseball history. The situation cannot get better until there is a resolution in the Madoff case, in whatever direction this takes the Mets — either to a final accounting of debt that will enable the Wilpons to take their payroll forward, or through the sale of the team. Until that happens, Mets fans will have to wallow in inertia, near the bottom of an extremely competitive NL East. — Buster Olney
The next step
Though it would be an extremely unpopular move, trading David Wright must be a consideration. Problem is, he has a 2013 option on his contract that disappears if he is traded this year. The Mets should hope the new, shorter fences at Citi Field will help Wright’s power numbers, and then look to trade him next winter once they have picked up his option and his trade value has increased. — Jim Bowden
abeeewright
February 14th, 2012
1:54 pm
RC, February 14th, 2012, 1:49 pm … “I think I saw an ad for Arachnaphobia the other day.”
As long as it’s not “Mega-Crocodile versus Dino-Shark” I might watch it.
ncscoots
February 14th, 2012
1:57 pm
As long as it’s not “Mega-Crocodile versus Dino-Shark”
…or any of the Alien vs. Predator movies.
abeeewright
February 14th, 2012
1:57 pm
Murph … what you’re also missing from my diatribe is that the Angels, Rangers, Phillies, et al, have the same issues, it’s just that the price point is higher.
If the Braves don’t generate pitiful revenue, Peachtree goes down.
If the Angels, Rangers, Phillies don’t generate premium bank, Media Giant goes down.
TennesseePaul
February 14th, 2012
2:01 pm
“How do you like your deal now???”
To which the company will say, “Great. So glad we got a cut rate deal in place instead of a bloated one.”
That article pointed out that the Angels have one of the worst TV ratings in the game and they signed a big TV deal. From the sound of it, the Braves would have to become an absolute pariah to the community and nation as a whole before the deal becomes unprofitable for the TV/Broadcasting company.
Murph
February 14th, 2012
2:06 pm
abeee, that’s true… another thing you’ll see when more teams have signed mega-deals is that they’ll all be fighting over a dwindling pool of mega-free agents. When most of the superstars are signed to 10 year deals and a new team enters the mega-deal fray, they are going to be sh*t outta luck when looking to make a splash with a big named player. Mega-deal goes mega-bust in year one.
Murph
February 14th, 2012
2:07 pm
That article pointed out that the Angels have one of the worst TV ratings in the game and they signed a big TV deal.
We’ll have to wait and see what Mr Pujols does to their ratings…
ncscoots
February 14th, 2012
2:08 pm
I’m not sure the blog is fully conversant with the cost of television advertising. Plus, advertising in a sporting event usually goes for a premium over normal advertising (targeted audience, long viewing span, multiple product impressions, etc. That bleep ain’t cheap.) Thus, ratings are a less important component of the rates paid for sporting events.
Even if that were not the case, ratings for a Braves’ team losing 100, or winning 100, are only going to vary marginally, not significantly. It’s just the nature of the beast. The broadcast product has value waaaay beyond the quality of the team it shows. The Astros’ rumored deal is a case in point.
Murph
February 14th, 2012
2:14 pm
http://www.forbes.com/sites/chrissmith/2012/02/01/super-bowl-ad-rates-can-double-within-ten-years/
Very interesting article about how advertising prices are set for the Super Bowl.
I don’t know that you can really compare the two (Super Bowl – Braves games) but still interesting.
JRW
February 14th, 2012
2:15 pm
Other agents will follow Boras’ lead and keep a sharp eye on the teams getting big TV revenues in the near future. That said, I don’t see many agents calling on the Braves on behalf of their clients. Baseball is in for big changes as this influx of TV monies comes into play. The Braves deal only guarantees they will not be invited to the party.
ncscoots
February 14th, 2012
2:15 pm
We’ll have to wait and see what Mr Pujols does to their ratings…
Maybe one day, the most important thing about a FA won’t be his OBP, or his wOBA, or his ERA+…but his Q Factor.
RC
February 14th, 2012
2:27 pm
Maybe one day, the most important thing about a FA won’t be his OBP, or his wOBA, or his ERA+…but his Q Factor.
Sounds like the business model for the NY Mets the past 10 years. Hasn’t worked out all that well for them.
Hillbilly
February 14th, 2012
2:31 pm
Maybe one day, the most important thing about a FA won’t be his OBP, or his wOBA, or his ERA+…but his Q Factor.
“Leading off for the Yankees in the bottom of the 3rd…….Snooki.”
ChattTownBrian (CTB)
February 14th, 2012
2:36 pm
Q and A with Shanks on upcoming season. I thought it was interesting Charlie Manuel predicted during last season that our pen would wear down come September. I’d never read this before. He ws right.
http://blogs.delawareonline.com/philledin/?p=10318
Murph
February 14th, 2012
2:37 pm
Snooki would have a nice OBP… she takes more balls than… ok, that’s pushing the envelope. Sorry ’bout that.
Ray
February 14th, 2012
2:53 pm
True, ad space in a sporting event especially a baseball team’s games are a package deal and is that of a premium. And what they may do if they are having any trouble selling the spots or you have a brand that is shrewd, they will negotiate other ads outside of the package.
jeffrey d
February 14th, 2012
3:01 pm
I was completely kidding, TennesseePaul. Hope it didn’t come off as douchy
jeffrey d
February 14th, 2012
3:05 pm
Douchey?
Tom O'Hawke
February 14th, 2012
3:11 pm
I usually answer to douchebaggy.
Sopheee
February 14th, 2012
3:12 pm
buttfacey
RC
February 14th, 2012
3:13 pm
Efrim,
Don’t know if you purchased it, but the 2012 Baseball Prospectus book came out today for digital distribution (Kindle). In reading the Braves section they get pretty in depth about the change in draft philosphy from the “glory days” to the current philsophy being used by DeMacio. Basically gone from signing high-upside players from Georgia that would sign for cheap to taking low ceiling, high floor college players that are likely to become big leaguers, but not stars.
CB
February 14th, 2012
3:18 pm
I like buttfacey for jeffrey, especially after the haircut.
jeffrey d
February 14th, 2012
3:18 pm
What does my hair have to do with it?
TennesseePaul
February 14th, 2012
3:20 pm
No worries jeffrey d…
TennesseePaul
February 14th, 2012
3:20 pm
I like buttfacey for jeffrey, especially after the haircut.
HA! I’ll have to remember that line.
CB
February 14th, 2012
3:22 pm
You looked better with more hair.
TennesseePaul
February 14th, 2012
3:23 pm
from Georgia that would sign for cheap to taking low ceiling, high floor college players that are likely to become big leaguers, but not stars.
Such a two edged sword. I like the young, high-upside. And while I thought it was cool some many local kids would come up and be truly a “home town guy,” in the back of my mind I always wondered if they were passing on other guys with even better upside simply to get the local kid.
The more recent approach I’m no fan of. And if they are to continue grabbing these polished college lefties I hope they start flipping them for some talented young high-upside hitters.
jeffrey d
February 14th, 2012
3:30 pm
Now who’s being buttfacey?
RC
February 14th, 2012
3:33 pm
TennesseePaul,
One thing that I think is missing from their description of the Braves’ change in philosphy is that when they were getting the high upside guys from backwoods GA there was much less media coverage of prep prospects, and you didn’t have Baseball America, Keith Law, and Kevin Goldstein all touting a guy’s ability before he graduated high school. Not only was it harder for teams to find players without this coverage, but the players themselves had no idea how they were viewed by the scouting community as a whole. For the most part there WASN’T a public scouting community, since it was in each teams’ best interest to keep scouting opinions to themselves, to avoid some other team swooping in and drafting a guy they wanted.
In that environment, the Braves old system of drafting worked great, because they got to know these kids who were really good prospects, but when they drafted them the kids didn’t know any better but to sign for a lowish number, since they couldn’t easily pull up their profile on Baseball America saying that they ought to be a top-10 pick. With more information available to the public, the Braves are not able to get those type of players on the cheap anymore, so have switched to a different strategy to execute their “low risk” philosophy. Just a change in the times….will be really interesting to see what they do going forward though (with new draft caps in place).
CB
February 14th, 2012
3:33 pm
Ha! I resemble that remark.
Mike S
February 14th, 2012
4:03 pm
RC, that’s an interesting angle at 3:33. Hadn’t thought of it that way before, but that makes some sense. Will definitely be interesting to see the new philosphy with the new draft cap structure…
TennesseePaul
February 14th, 2012
4:07 pm
RC, it wasn’t that long ago though. It’s been about 2 years worth of the change. People knew the real good high-upside prospects way back then.
I see your point though. Going forward the pervasive information age is shining a light on more and more of these kids before the draft. But, I don’t think that was the reason for the switch.
RC
February 14th, 2012
4:13 pm
TennesseePaul,
I can’t think of anyone they have used that strategy with lately except for maybe Heyward, and they went to MAJOR lengths to try and hide him from other teams.
kenhotlanta
February 14th, 2012
4:13 pm
I thought this was the last year Peachtree TV would have the Braves, or is that an old story? DOB wrote a column about this time last year stating the Meredith Corp. was buying Peachtree TV from Turner, but I can’t find a follow-up to that article. It stated that Fox would produce the games for Peachtree TV, but I thought there was a story somewhere that all the games would be on Fox and Sports South after this year, but I could be mistaken or the story changed since last year.
haggard
February 14th, 2012
4:16 pm
Hey Lady McFann
I was just checking in during one of my all-too-infrequent-blog visits these days, ( I sorely miss regularly talking with you guys, but enjoy being busy. In addition, quite a bit of long distance dating is “to blame”.), noticed your interest in Vince Gill, and see you’ve added his Guitar Slinger to your CD collection, and want to recommend High Lonesome Sound as a candidate for your next Gill purchase. He performs the title tune with Alison Krauss and Union Station and a couple more interesting cuts are “Pretty Little Adrianna”,(which he wrote after reading a newspaper story about a missing child in the Nashville area a few years ago) and “Jenny Dreamed Of Trains”.
You may already have heard or read the story, but on Guitar Slinger there is a cut titled “Threaten Me With Heaven”, which is about his father in law who–upon deciding do stop chemo treatments for cancer–asked, “So what are they going to do. Threaten me with heaven?” His father in law was a minister
TennesseePaul
February 14th, 2012
4:23 pm
and they went to MAJOR lengths to try and hide him from other teams.
Yeah. I read that. But even in that draft there were popular young players, well known. I just think that while it might be correct that the free flowing of info makes it harder to pick young players for yourself, the Braves seemed to have changed philosophy for a different reason.
kenhotlanta
February 14th, 2012
4:28 pm
haggard: Good to see you and I hope you are well. I got relocated to the ATL area and things are much better. Take care, my friend.
Ray
February 14th, 2012
4:30 pm
That might be a question DOB could ask Wren if he doesn’t already know. What is the reasoning of changing philosophies or is it that they went with what they felt was the best available and lately it has been college pitchers.
Sopheee
February 14th, 2012
4:31 pm
ken – you’re right. Fox is producing all the Peachtree games right now and this is the last year Braves games will be on Peachtree anyway. All Fox after this season.
haggard
February 14th, 2012
4:33 pm
kenhotlanta
Thanks ! Good to see your name pop up while I’m “here”. In fact–when I checked in a week or so ago–I believe you told uga-brave you had finally re-located back here in our Atlanta area; to which I replied, “Full circle”. It’s Smyrna if memory serves correct, right?
DAP
February 14th, 2012
4:33 pm
fropm MLBTR: The White Sox announced that they have agreed to sign Kosuke F* to a one-year, $1MM contract that includes a club option for 2013. The outfielder will earn $500K in 2012 and the $3.5MM option for 2013 includes a $500K buyout.
i know he isnt all that good, but dude can play a little center and had a .346 OBP last year. i mean…not even a consideration for the bench at $500k?
David O'Brien
February 14th, 2012
4:39 pm
From the Bill James Handbook, projections for 2012:
Jason Heyward (.269 avg, .374 OBP, .457 slugg, .831 OPS, 21 HR, 74 RBI in 540 AB)
Freddie Freeman (.286/.350/.459, .809 OPS, 20 HR, 82 RBI in 542 AB)
Chipper Jones (.278/.378/.461, .839 OPS, 14 HR, 56 RBI in 356 AB)
Dan Uggla (.251/.337/.473, .810 OPS, 33 HR, 92 RBI in 601 AB)
kenhotlanta
February 14th, 2012
4:42 pm
haggard, yes, you are right. My house is about 5 miles from where I grew up and went to grammar school, and I am close to my family and friends. That makes all the difference in the world for peace of mind.
Santa brought me “Stompin’ Room Only” by The Marshall Tucker Band, and 2 Rolling Stones new extended albums with lots of new cuts: “Exile On Main Street” and “Some Girls”. Their outtakes are better than anything they put out in the past 25 years, so I broke my house and neighborhood in right! Now I’m saving for The Beach Boys “Smile” which they finally did right and put the whole thing out.
kenhotlanta
February 14th, 2012
4:43 pm
Soph: Thanks, glad to know I’m not crazy (yet!).
MFin04
February 14th, 2012
4:45 pm
If all of those guys achieve those OPS numbers they will have increased from last year.
MFin04
February 14th, 2012
4:49 pm
2011–>2012
Heyward .708 OPS–>.831
Uggla .764 OPS–>.810
Chipper .814 OPS–>.839 (they must think he will be injured quite a bit however)
Freeman .795 OPS–>.809
David O'Brien
February 14th, 2012
4:50 pm
DOB – I know that your knowledge of the TV deal is limited because in all honesty it’s not first on your list of “things I need to write about” but if you do talk to a team or TV official about it can you ask about an “out clause”? With the types of deals teams are getting now it seems like it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to pay some money to get out of it so we can get a bigger deal with someone else… — Jbailz
There is no “out clause” in the 25-year deal
keyLargo
February 14th, 2012
4:52 pm
keyLargo
Mike in VA
February 14th, 2012
4:52 pm
Anyone have ESPN insider to see where they have the Braves listed in the future power rankings?
keyLargo
February 14th, 2012
4:53 pm
DOB – did you get the song I sent via email a few days ago? I thoght it was right up some of our alleys.
haggard
February 14th, 2012
4:54 pm
kenhotlanta
So you now own ‘Stompin’ Room Only”. I do believe it was on your Christmas wish list. One of the cuts–”This Ol’ Cowboy”–held a certain charm when Toy Caldwell handled lead vocals on the “Where We All Belong” version, (and I was a little confused when I first saw the original MTB in concert, Tommy Calwell said, “We’d like to do a song for ya’ called This OL’ Cowboy” and Doug Gray stepped to the mike to handle the lead), but I love Gray’s vocals on the “Stompin’ Room” version. Plus, I’d love to hear the Stones deluxe editions as their nod to disco–”Miss You”–is one of my favorite cuts. “Smile” is great. That I do own.
haggard
February 14th, 2012
4:54 pm
Hope to see you folks later tonight.
New Mexico Lee
February 14th, 2012
4:55 pm
DOB, is that like only 100 games played for Chipper or less?
Ward
February 14th, 2012
4:56 pm
Hello everyone! Being a braves in Montana. I would like to know how many gameswill be shown here? At least you can get Peach Tree TV. I’m screwed,beccause I have to find the games On ESPN,and Fox TV. Can’t watch the Braves like I used too.
Ward
February 14th, 2012
4:58 pm
I was so mad about that,and thought TBS sold the Braves out.I haven’t watched TBS in years,and only if I see a Braves game.I call it the loser Channel now.
TennesseePaul
February 14th, 2012
4:58 pm
Chipper Jones (.278/.378/.461, .839 OPS, 14 HR, 56 RBI in 356 AB)
That works out to about 23 doubles on the season. It would also drop his career line to about .303/.401/.530/.931… Dangerously close to losing the 300/400/500 mark.
David O'Brien
February 14th, 2012
4:59 pm
New Mexico Lee: He’s got Chipper projected at 110 games played….
KeyLargo: Got it, thank ya.
Mike in VA
February 14th, 2012
4:59 pm
Ward – the Direct TV baseball package is great. We get all the games. Only problem in VA is that we get the Nats broadcast when the Braves are playing them.
Murph
February 14th, 2012
5:00 pm
Hello everyone! Being a braves in Montana. I would like to know how many gameswill be shown here?
Probably 3 or 4… you’re going to have to get Extra Innings or MLB.TV if you want to see them play more than that.
New Mexico Lee
February 14th, 2012
5:01 pm
Ward, MLB.com or MLB extra innings. It costs really money to be a Braves fan way out here. I totally agree with you about TBS.
Ward
February 14th, 2012
5:01 pm
Have today off. I call TBS the commy Channel,and Treason……….
TennesseePaul
February 14th, 2012
5:01 pm
If he were to play this year and next year at that level he’d be right on the brink of losing the 3/4/5 trifecta. And if he pushed it one extra year to grasp at 500 HR, he’d fall short and lose the 3/4/5 triangle.
Ward
February 14th, 2012
5:02 pm
Murph,New Mexico , very upsetting,because it was tradition for me to watch the Braves.
New Mexico Lee
February 14th, 2012
5:05 pm
If Chipper only plays in 110 games, there will not be a next year I am afraid.
Ward
February 14th, 2012
5:06 pm
I’ll be damned If I wacth Boston, Yankess,Dodgers, Angels , Rockies,or Tampa,and will ban all those games on TBS.
Ray
February 14th, 2012
5:07 pm
110 game projection for Chipper is a bit pessimistic. I don’t see him playing 145 but I don’t see him in the 110 range either. A guess of about 125-130 range.
Ward
February 14th, 2012
5:07 pm
Anyways you got my take on what I think,and feel,so I leave at that.
New Mexico Lee
February 14th, 2012
5:08 pm
Ward, me to. Put up with Gameday and radio for for a couple of years and could not stand it anymore and switched from DISH to DIRECT TV so I could get Extra Innings, love it. Can’t wait.
New Mexico Lee
February 14th, 2012
5:10 pm
DOB, what do you think? 110 sure sounds low to me or at least I hope it is.
Ward
February 14th, 2012
5:11 pm
I’m thinking of geting a pocket radio from Radio Shack,and will pay to listen the the Braves games.Also watch what I can.
Mike in VA
February 14th, 2012
5:11 pm
Ward, Last year the cost of the Direct TV package was about $160 for all regular season MLB games. So, about $1 a game to get the Braves.
McFann O O o
February 14th, 2012
5:13 pm
haggard—
Hi! Good to see you and sorry I missed your post…hope you’re still lurking about…
Thanks, I’ll have to check out “High Lonesome Sound”—sounds like a good one! Most of his CDs seem to be a pretty good price on Amazon.com…
You may already have heard or read the story, but on Guitar Slinger there is a cut titled “Threaten Me With Heaven”, which is about his father in law who–upon deciding do stop chemo treatments for cancer–asked, “So what are they going to do. Threaten me with heaven?” His father in law was a minister
Actually, I hadn’t read that, so thanks for sharing!
Aw…that’s one of my favorites from the CD, too.
Ward
February 14th, 2012
5:13 pm
Talk later tonight,and interesting topic. “Go!!!!!Braves!!!!!” Play-Offs Baby…….Here we come……..Peace…….
New Mexico Lee
February 14th, 2012
5:14 pm
Ward, if you can get DIRECT TV, go Extra Innings, radio will drive you nuts, believe me.
New Mexico Lee
February 14th, 2012
5:28 pm
You sure can tell when it’s quitting time on the East Coast.