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Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
2,326 comments Add your comment
McFann O O o
February 13th, 2012
3:32 pm
Don in TN—
Good song! Thanks for posting it. I like the harmony a lot…
Vince was the one in the picture with the long hair!
Murph
February 13th, 2012
3:33 pm
Shaun, do you refer to your home as “the compound”? Do you wear sweat suits all the time with white Nikes?
Lew
February 13th, 2012
3:34 pm
Murph – Let’s hope he’s not armed.
Sopheee
February 13th, 2012
3:35 pm
Might be a good time to talk to Athletics about Seth Smith.
Our blind squirrel’s a trouble maker.
Shaun
February 13th, 2012
3:36 pm
Murph, do you go around making sure people know you ain’t no dad gum intellectual sissy and that you don’t want no part of no science or no math or no logic? Seems that’s the goal of you and at least a few others who frequently comment here.
Sopheee
February 13th, 2012
3:39 pm
If it snows tonight, it better be enough to shut down work tomorrow. No wimpy flurries.
Lew
February 13th, 2012
3:40 pm
Murph – Not sweat suits – straight jackets.
Ray
February 13th, 2012
3:40 pm
Shaun, just so I know clearly where you are coming from, are you saying that a lineup should be strictly on data or are you saying it should be just part of the element?
TennesseePaul
February 13th, 2012
3:41 pm
…really falling apart today.
DAP
February 13th, 2012
3:48 pm
shaun if it werent for people like you just insulted, questioning the conclusions of others, there would be no science, nor would there be this research you keep referencing.
you are closed minded. you defer to your “gods” who have done research for you, without allowing for any questions about such things.
one mathematical assertion you have yet to respond to is that a #3 hitter with just decent OBP guys matting in front of him, will come up to bat with a runner on base and less than 2 outs 57% of the time in the first inning. not to mention in the 43% that they are up with 2 out and no one on, they are the last chance for the team to get something going in the inning. thats kindof important, no?
so answer some of the factual issues folk have presented, dont resort to insults.
could it be that some of your stances on batting order are based more on philosophy than anything else?
Lew
February 13th, 2012
3:58 pm
The Book has shown him the way. All who do not believe are heretics.
DAP
February 13th, 2012
3:58 pm
”any single line up alteration is likely to result in a only a very small gain (usually less than one run over the course of an entire season).”
i dont actually believe that either. perhaps any reasonable lineup only changes results slightly, but i could put together some terrible lineups that i can bet would be significantly worse than others. thats one problem with folks saying “lineups dont matter to run scoring…” they dont even know that. i have yet to see a decent lineup simulation, even if they could actually tell you anything.
i contend the only way to know is to do it, for real. simulations dont work.
doug
February 13th, 2012
3:58 pm
N8
This is a great honour, because this record was a special record for our band. Rather than go to the best studio in the world down the street in Hollywood and rather than use all of the fanciest computers that money can buy, we made this one in my garage with some microphones and a tape machine…
“To me this award means a lot because it shows that the human element of music is what’s important. Singing into a microphone and learning to play an instrument and learning to do your craft, that’s the most important thing for people to do.
“It’s not about being perfect, it’s not about sounding absolutely correct, it’s not about what goes on in a computer. It’s about what goes on in here [your heart] and what goes on in here [your head].”
From Dave Grohl’s acceptance speech last night, awesome.
CB
February 13th, 2012
3:59 pm
Soph, we could trade Marteeen for him. LOL
Ray
February 13th, 2012
4:01 pm
I am guessing my question is requiring research or the answer might be in a book.
Lew
February 13th, 2012
4:01 pm
CB – They’d probably want Jurrfjens and a top prospect, too.
McFann O O o
February 13th, 2012
4:03 pm
CB Soph, we could trade Marteeen for him.
Fire in the hole!!…
Hillbilly
February 13th, 2012
4:04 pm
If it snows tonight, it better be enough to shut down work tomorrow. No wimpy flurries. –Sophee
We got about 15 minutes of sleet and then 6 hours of rain. It was pretty much useless.
McFann O O o
February 13th, 2012
4:05 pm
TommyP—
I’ve been listening to samples from “Pocket Full of Gold”…this just may be the next CD I get…
Thanks for the good steer!
Murph
February 13th, 2012
4:05 pm
Murph, do you go around making sure people know you ain’t no dad gum intellectual sissy and that you don’t want no part of no science or no math or no logic?
I do, only with better grammar. Well, actually, just the science part… unfortunately math and logic are a part of my everyday life, but that doesn’t keep me from picking on others who walk around pounding their nerdy chests, trying to cram their math and logic down the throats of others.
Mister Frisky
February 13th, 2012
4:05 pm
Nate and Murph,Van Halen at Gazzari’s on the strip in 76.Also go to YouTube there is a cover Rainbows Man on the Silver Mountain from some backyard party in 75.As for the Braves when Oakland is a player and your not you’ve hit rock bottom.Last place.
Sopheee
February 13th, 2012
4:06 pm
TROUBLE. MAKER.
I’ll let that one slide, CB.
ncscoots
February 13th, 2012
4:09 pm
I do, only with better grammar.
ncscoots
February 13th, 2012
4:13 pm
RHR, I meant to say “howdy” earlier, but I was overcome by the joyous trembling that beset me when your moniker appeared.
Howdy. Damn good to see you.
Ray
February 13th, 2012
4:14 pm
I doubt if anyone on here would say that there is not a place for data spit out by a computer etc. But there are so many other factors that go into the game that you cannot get from a computer. So if you include data with your gut feelings and other factors then you have a good chance of putting together a pretty good lineup. And one final thing, I think the A’s in the 70’s 72-74 did a pretty good job putting together a lineup without a computer.
Shaun
February 13th, 2012
4:17 pm
Ray, I would be happy if more managers didn’t throw away the number two spot in the order as often as they do. And if they didn’t only focus on speed in the leadoff spot. I think those two things are the biggest problems with what managers tend to do versus what would help them. That would be a huge step, if managers didn’t just go with a bunter who can move runners over and actually put a good all-around hitter in the number two spot.
You think about it in any sort of reasonable fashion, it’s counterproductive to put simply a guy who is going to make outs and advance runners in the number two spot. Your leadoff guy gets on, why not go with a guy who can get on and has a good shot at an extra-base hit, so that you don’t need a sacrifice there? And if the leadoff hitter doesn’t get on, you need a good hitter up next, not some superior bunter whose only other skill is hitting the ball weakly to the right side.
DAP, the 57% is based on the assumption that you have two .350 OBP guys each hitting in the first and second spots. That doesn’t have much to do with building an optimal lineup. In other words, just because the number three hitter has a 57% chance to come up with at least one runner on and less than two outs, doesn’t mean the optimal lineup is to have one of your best hitters batting third. All that tells us is that two .350 OBP in the first two spots gives the number three hitter a 57% chance to hit with a runner on base and less than two outs; nothing more than that and nothing less than that. Tells us nothing about the optimal way to put 9 guys into a batting order.
Ray
February 13th, 2012
4:22 pm
Shaun, managers do for the most part put a productive high on base % guy in the #2 spot. My question to you earlier in case you missed it was, are you saying that a lineup should be based strictly on what the computer says or is it a part of it?
TennesseePaul
February 13th, 2012
4:23 pm
i dont actually believe that either. perhaps any reasonable lineup only changes results slightly, but i could put together some terrible lineups that i can bet would be significantly worse than others.
To be fair, this assertion is based on the same 9 being re-arranged. Assuming you are putting your best 9 out there, over the long haul, the significance of the order they are in is minimized. And that too is assuming an “average” team. The fluctuations will be more pronounced on specific applications. Like last year, a line up beginning with our pitchers, followed by Seabass, and so on, implemented the entire season would have yielded even worse than the crappy offensive output the team managed to squeak out.
kenhotlanta
February 13th, 2012
4:31 pm
It’s a shame Glen Campbell is not well enough to participate in the Beach Boys 50th Anniversary hoopla, because he played and toured with them as a young session man right before he signed a record deal with Capitol Records and became a big star. He is considered an outstanding guitar player, too, and did back then what Vince Gill does now. In fact their careers have lots of similarities.
Shaun
February 13th, 2012
4:31 pm
Ray, we don’t really have differing views. I like to push the buttons of those that are annoyed by anyone who looks into data and evidence relating to baseball. Some think because a baseball team should take into account more than just data, that means we should ignore if not ridicule the data and the folks who study the data of baseball. Use both. Accept both. Embrace both. Don’t ridicule those who use and pay attention to data simply because data is not enough. No one is saying data is enough.
In my experience the people who use and pay attention to data are much more accepting of the fact that data is not enough than the anti-data folks are of the folks who use data and the data itself.
Look at this whole discussion. You bring up that the data strongly suggest the number two hitter should be one of your best hitters, and they ridicule that idea and they ridicule you for bringing it up. But you bring up that you need both data and you need to consider other factors independent of any data and I agree. Which side is more reasonable and is probably more right? The folks who are anti-data or the folks like me who want all information, whether it’s data or info independent of data?
Bayou Brave
February 13th, 2012
4:33 pm
Ef-ing brick wall
Sopheee
February 13th, 2012
4:35 pm
Free brick February! Get ‘em while they’re hot.
Shaun
February 13th, 2012
4:35 pm
Ray, a computer, data, evidence, whatever you want to call it, should be a consideration, along with lots of other information. I’m not anti-information, like quite a few on here.
For the most part, the sabermetric crowd understands that it’s wise to use more than just metrics, in addition to metrics. But the anti-sabermetric, for the most part, wants to limit the use of pertinent information, namely the metrics. The sabermetric crowd is much more inclusive than the anti-sabermetric crowd.
Braveone
February 13th, 2012
4:36 pm
From the previous blog which had 3,705 comments, cabravesfan led the way with 253 posts. There were 217 different poster names. Here are the Top 25:
Rank Poster Frequency
1 cabravesfan 253
2 nolie 224
3 Venice Jim 195
4 Shaun 139
5 ncscoots 132
6 McFann O O o 122
7 Tom O’Hawke 114
8 ChattTownBrian (CTB) 112
9 DS1 101
10 tiger297 90
11 jeffrey d 81
12 Lew 78
13 Tomahawkin (The Godfather) 78
14 TennesseePaul 77
15 richbrave 77
16 David O’Brien 75
17 Ease 73
18 Efrim 73
19 N8 70
20 Ward 69
21 kenhotlanta 66
22 brian 60
23 Murph 53
24 MFin04 52
25 Sopheee 48
ncscoots
February 13th, 2012
4:36 pm
and they ridicule that idea and they ridicule you for bringing it up.
Please point out the posts in which either the idea or you, personally, were “ridiculed”. Has anyone called you bad names today? No. Has anyone done anything but put forth a premise that might refute yours? No. Remove your sackcloth and ashes,. fercrissake.
Geezus,it’s a good thing I’m in too good a mood for a brick-wall fest, LOL.
cabravesfan
February 13th, 2012
4:39 pm
I’m #1! Back at the top
TennesseePaul
February 13th, 2012
4:40 pm
scoots, There you go again, cribbing notes. I had that post pending.
Shaun
February 13th, 2012
4:41 pm
ncscoots, who said anything about personal ridicule? It’s more like anything related to metrics should be thrown out. Not personal ridicule. It’s more ridicule of anything related to metrics for the sake of ridiculing anything related to metrics. It’s not about taking into account as much information as possible to formulate a thought, idea, opinion, etc., in this case coming up with an optimal lineup.
Sopheee
February 13th, 2012
4:41 pm
I’m 25, I’m 25!
TommyP
February 13th, 2012
4:41 pm
McFann: It is a good one. I break it out from time to time and it never disappoints. The other one I own is, “I Still Believe in You.” If the CD isn’t called that, that’s the biggest hit on it. Classic song.
ncscoots
February 13th, 2012
4:42 pm
I’m #1! Back at the top
Well, when I saw I was top 5, I knew it was time to let Shaun dogs lie, LOL. Good grief.
ncscoots
February 13th, 2012
4:43 pm
ncscoots, who said anything about personal ridicule?
You did:
“and they ridicule that idea and they ridicule you for bringing it up”
Rabid Rascal
February 13th, 2012
4:44 pm
My music taste is pretty heavy but if you want to check out some bands that I am into are Kyng, Five Finger Death Punch, and Staind. There are some awesome musicians in each band in different ways.
ncscoots
February 13th, 2012
4:44 pm
TennPaul, great minds, etc. Ha!
nolie
February 13th, 2012
4:45 pm
DOB I think you are getting a bit more negative take than what I meant about Drive. as I said I thought it was a good movie, just not quite a top ten of the year movie myself. and I thought it was a kinduva mediocre year for movies overall too I guess.
Shaun
February 13th, 2012
4:46 pm
Ray, I actually posted a lineup based purely on the Braves ZiPS projections and on what studies suggest is an optimal lineup. But then I also posted a lineup that takes into account all that to some degree but was more traditional, that wouldn’t cause the uproar of an outside the box, analytic type lineup. Would I even bother if I was only concerned with data or making a lineup out by computer or whatever? I’m all about taking into account as much info as can be gathered. If only others thought this way, maybe any idea folks like me and a few others wouldn’t be immediately ridiculed.
TennesseePaul
February 13th, 2012
4:46 pm
scoots, you know it’s gettin’ close to ball time. Everything starts lining up.
Ray
February 13th, 2012
4:47 pm
Shaun, I just wanted to make sure I was reading your post clearly. And yes data is important when filling out a lineup. For those that have actually filled a lineup above the LL level know that data does come into play along with what I will call the human element—gut feelings, conversations you have with your players and coaches and yes even plain ol’ hunches.
nolie
February 13th, 2012
4:48 pm
Chipper hit better in the three, five and six hole than he did in the second hole last season, though other than third they were all pretty small sample sizes
ncscoots
February 13th, 2012
4:49 pm
TennPaul, roger that, my friend. Shaun will have us in mid-season form by March 1. Assuming our heads don’t explode first.
But I forget: he enjoys “pushing buttons” and so forth. Just doesn’t seem to care much for the reaction from doing so. Go figure.
cabravesfan
February 13th, 2012
4:50 pm
Everyone watches and enjoys watching baseball in different ways. There is no “right” way to do it. There is no “wrong” way. There is just “a” way.
Coach (2012 Fredi's beisbol fandango)
February 13th, 2012
4:52 pm
Dang, I didn’t make the top 25………….again
abeeewright
February 13th, 2012
4:52 pm
I see we’re back to batting orders. Yee-hah.
Can someone explain the logic of hitting Alex Gonzalez at 2 for about 1/3 of the year?
Is there any book, including the Necronomicon or The King in Yellow, wherein that could be justified?
Hillbilly
February 13th, 2012
4:52 pm
It’s not the stats or the philosphy of it all that bothers me. It’s the presentation of it. It aggravates the p!ss out of me when the Clubhouse Confidential commercial comes on and Brian Kenney condescends the ever-loving $### out of me, insinuating that I’m lower than him because I’m not a “thinking-man.” Sometimes this blog is like watching that commercial on a continuous loop.
I try to stay open-minded about the stats movement and I’ve actually come around to some of it,…but don’t sit there and talk down to me like I’ve got some type of learning disability. This isn’t One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest. It isn’t a brand-new world for us. Most of us have been playing this game since we were 5 years old.
If I show up at a rodeo ready to do some bull-riding, then you can condescend until you’re blue in the face, because I don’t know a damn thing about it, and I could probably use a little knowledge about the craft…plus I’ll probably deserve the ridicule, because I would more than likely be drunk.
nolie
February 13th, 2012
4:53 pm
Thank God the Braves were NOT in the Cespedes race. This guy is no more a sure thing than a good college player who would be making 500K or less (much less while in the minors) during the entire time that he will be making 9mil per year.
With their history it amazes me that the As were willing to risk that;and truthfully with their very spotty record of drafting the last few years I wonder even more
DAP
February 13th, 2012
4:53 pm
shaun just because the number three hitter has a 57% chance to come up with at least one runner on and less than two outs, doesn’t mean the optimal lineup is to have one of your best hitters batting third.
but you said that a #3 hitter will bat often with no one on and 2 out. thats not true, based on the 57%.
dont miss my point. i havent given an opinion on #3 being the spot for you best hitter. im just the assertion you use to justify your stance is false.
simple probability (as scoots calls it) proves you are wrong.
CB
February 13th, 2012
4:57 pm
Hillbilly,great summation. Always be willing to learn but always question the teacher,especially the one who is dogmatic.
Shaun
February 13th, 2012
4:58 pm
Ray, I think it will take a while for players to come around and more or less keep the same basic approach no matter where they hit in the lineup. I think this is a big reason why it’s probably not wise to stray too far from a traditional lineup these days. If you put one of your great hitters number two and he’s a veteran, there’s a chance he’s going to view himself as a guy who should go up there mostly looking to move the runner, sacrifice himself or be a table-setter. That’s where the human element comes in that is independent of any data or studies about optimal lineups.
ncscoots
February 13th, 2012
4:59 pm
insinuating that I’m lower than him because I’m not a “thinking-man.”
You’re a caveman, dude. Live with it.
It does honk me a little that, with an opportunity to broaden knowledge, MLBN chooses to further the image of saber-centric fans as put-upon victims of anti-intellectuality. Poor choice.
And I fer sure know what Ken Caminiti would’ve called ‘em.
RC
February 13th, 2012
4:59 pm
Thank God the Braves were NOT in the Cespedes race. This guy is no more a sure thing than a good college player who would be making 500K or less (much less while in the minors) during the entire time that he will be making 9mil per year.
While that’s a true statement, it’s not like you can just pick up that type of college player whenever you need one…a team gets a limited number of shots at them with draft picks and signing bonuses. So while Cepedes might not be a better deal than a good college hitter who is a high draft pick, he could very easily be a better deal than many hitters on the free agent market.
Murph
February 13th, 2012
5:01 pm
I’d be more than happy to personally ridicule you if you’d like, Shaun. Just let me know.
It’s not because I can’t argue the counterpoint of your assumptions, I’ve just learned that it’s an exercise in futility and prefer to attack the messenger rather than the message.
I guess we all like to push buttons…
nolie
February 13th, 2012
5:01 pm
Dang, I didn’t make the top 25………….again…coach
and we are all soooo grateful……….
Shaun was only 4th but all 139 posts were the same subject…….
Shaun
February 13th, 2012
5:03 pm
DAP, that’s 57% if the top two hitters are .350 OBP guys, first of all. Second of all, is 57% often compared to other hitters? Say you have .350 OBP guys in the top two spots and a .340 OBP guy third. What are the chances that the number four hitter hits with at least one runner on and less than two outs?
abeeewright
February 13th, 2012
5:04 pm
It looks like I’ll have to go back a few pages to see what all the line up buzz is about.
My 2 cents.
Get your high OBP guys at the top of the line up. Get your sluggers in the middle. Bury your AGons and JWilson’s down there with the pitcher.
When in doubt, put the faster guy ahead of the tractor trailer. If you have a high OBP guy who’s also a slugger, put him towards the early middle, unless you have 8 other AGons in the line-up. Then, bat him lead off.
If you have a young guy who’s potentially inconsistent, bat him towards the bottom of the order until you can figure out his strengths.
A great base-stealer who cannot get on base … put him at the bottom if you have to play him at all.
nolie
February 13th, 2012
5:04 pm
500K
9 mil
not any kind of good comparison and at 9mil he is really unlikely to be a better deal than many free agents or trade possibilities
and what in hell does Oakland need him for anyway?
McFann O O o
February 13th, 2012
5:05 pm
TommyP The other one I own is, “I Still Believe in You.” If the CD isn’t called that, that’s the biggest hit on it. Classic song.
I’ve heard a clip of that song, too. I totally want that one…I almost bought the 20th Century Masters Vince Gill CD, which has that song on it. But it’s price has been going down on Amazon, so I’m just kinda waiting a bit to see if it goes below $9…
nolie
February 13th, 2012
5:06 pm
if he is a bust it will likely pound the “death nail” in Billy’s rep……..
abeeewright
February 13th, 2012
5:07 pm
Shaun, February 13th, 2012, 4:58 pm … “If you put one of your great hitters number two and he’s a veteran, there’s a chance he’s going to view himself as a guy who should go up there mostly looking to move the runner, sacrifice himself or be a table-setter.”
This boggles my tiny little mind. I always ask, at times like these, how Ted Williams would approach hitting second. Would he try to move the runner over – maybe lay down a bunt? Or would he hit the ball with authority wherever he could?
Methinks the latter.
abeeewright
February 13th, 2012
5:09 pm
Angels overpaid for Princess. As overpaid for Cespedes.
God love ‘em, but it makes the NL East a little bit easier for the Braves.
RC
February 13th, 2012
5:10 pm
500K
9 mil
Sorry, you aren’t going to sign a drafted player of his caliber for 500k. He’s likely a top-10 draft pick if he was in the draft….that’s easily over $2 mil, and of the top 7 only Trevor Bauer signed for under $5 million. Oakland certainly paid a lot for him, but there is still a chance he outperforms his contract. There is a good bit of risk there also, which is why they are able to sign him for a number that he might outperform.
RC
February 13th, 2012
5:12 pm
if he is a bust it will likely pound the “death nail” in Billy’s rep……
Completely agree. Beane has not done much in quite a while now…I know he’s working with limited resources, but if this blows up on him it’s going to be hard to cry poor.
nolie
February 13th, 2012
5:14 pm
if you put a great hitter second and your leadoff hitter runs a lot you are gonna have him taking some good pitches which would be a waste
I have THE BOOK too, it makes some interesting points but it is ALL just theory and should be treated as such not as absolute truth
Shaun is obviously a believer that you can fool some of the folks all of the time by simply repeating the same thang 139 times in a few days………
David O'Brien
February 13th, 2012
5:14 pm
Ray, I actually posted a lineup based purely on the Braves ZiPS projections and on what studies suggest is an optimal lineup. But then I also posted a lineup that takes into account all that to some degree but was more traditional, that wouldn’t cause the uproar of an outside the box, analytic type lineup. Would I even bother if I was only concerned with data or making a lineup out by computer or whatever? I’m all about taking into account as much info as can be gathered. If only others thought this way, maybe any idea folks like me and a few others wouldn’t be immediately ridiculed. — Shaun
In other words, if layman and simple folks could think on your level, then you would be recognized for the brilliant baseball tactician that you are.
nolie
February 13th, 2012
5:16 pm
Sorry, you aren’t going to sign a drafted player of his caliber for 500k. He’s likely a top-10 draft pick if he was in the draft….that’s easily over $2 mil
c’mon man that is 5mill plus 500k at the MOST for four years or 7 mil. Ces will make 30% again that in just one year
DAP
February 13th, 2012
5:18 pm
shaun that’s 57% if the top two hitters are .350 OBP guys, first of all.
since we are assuming your lineup philosophy, its likely that both the #1 and #2 hitters will have a higher than .350 OBP, it would be even more often than 57% of the time.
as far as the #3 hitters OBP and what that means for the #4, ill let scoots get that, if he wants. it was his formula. im not sure what that has to do with the #3 hitter though.
bottom line i, the claim you used to justify not batting one of your better hitters 3rd is false.
David O'Brien
February 13th, 2012
5:23 pm
This is a great honour, because this record was a special record for our band. Rather than go to the best studio in the world down the street in Hollywood and rather than use all of the fanciest computers that money can buy, we made this one in my garage with some microphones and a tape machine…
“To me this award means a lot because it shows that the human element of music is what’s important. Singing into a microphone and learning to play an instrument and learning to do your craft, that’s the most important thing for people to do.
“It’s not about being perfect, it’s not about sounding absolutely correct, it’s not about what goes on in a computer. It’s about what goes on in here [your heart] and what goes on in here [your head].”
From Dave Grohl’s acceptance speech last night, awesome. — doug
Agreed. Loved that moment, that speech coming from someone so accomplished.
nolie
February 13th, 2012
5:25 pm
in a very general sense a 10 point difference in OBP puts an “average” guy on base 5 or 6 more times in a year, right?
abeeewright
February 13th, 2012
5:27 pm
nolie, February 13th, 2012, 5:14 pm … “if you put a great hitter second and your leadoff hitter runs a lot you are gonna have him taking some good pitches which would be a waste”
Would be interesting to crunch some numbers (not so interesting that I’m actually going to do it) on how many good pitches a base-stealer costs the batter and how many good pitches result in a quality offensive event.
Add those missing offensive events to the outs given up when a runner is caught stealing, and it makes the “steal attempt” even less desirable.
Add in the fact that it encourages folks to put a lesser hitter in the two spot. How many extra outs and feeble balls in play does that add per season? How many bunts are attempted by a mediocre #2 batter that would never be considered with a quality hitter at the plate?
Shaun
February 13th, 2012
5:27 pm
DOB, no. It doesn’t take a “brilliant tactician” to read through and grasp all the info on an optimal lineup. All it takes is some acceptance of what is there instead of being anti-”sabermetric” or anti anything that can be construed as sabermetric. I think that’s what this is all about, in all honesty.
nolie
February 13th, 2012
5:30 pm
what is there is THEORY Shaun, not proven fact, and even your gurus say that it makes almost no difference anyway, and for that you say the same thing hundreds of times like it is really a big important difference
Shaun
February 13th, 2012
5:33 pm
DAP, you may be thinking I’m saying that you should just hit any ol’ random hitter 3rd. No. I think the number three hitters should be one of your better hitters. I just don’t think he should be one of your three best all-around hitters.
Shaun
February 13th, 2012
5:34 pm
nolie, I agree. Can we discuss the Goldstein interview on Atlanta Baseball Talk, anyone?
TennesseePaul
February 13th, 2012
5:36 pm
Say you have .350 OBP guys in the top two spots and a .340 OBP guy third. What are the chances that the number four hitter hits with at least one runner on and less than two outs?
Well this is a tad bit surprising… Payne, this is a probability function. You should be able to answer this yourself. You know how to calculate that, correct?
Shaun
February 13th, 2012
5:37 pm
nolie, only a few folks on here would dispute what an in-depth study based on lots of data suggests (well, maybe not a few). I’m not sure why I bother engaging those folks, other than sometimes it’s fun to push peoples’ buttons. Time to move on.
nolie
February 13th, 2012
5:39 pm
other than sometimes it’s fun to push peoples’ buttons. …Shaun
I can understand that part quite well
nolie
February 13th, 2012
5:43 pm
in that function though you can not assume that all three occurrences are independent of each other, but I’m not sure how you could figure an amount one way or t’other??
Jbailz
February 13th, 2012
5:53 pm
DOB – After skimming the comments I looked up Van Halen’s new single (if you can call it that) Tattoo and that as Charles Barkley would say was Turrible, absolutely turrible… I couldn’t listen past the first 30 seconds…
Shaun
February 13th, 2012
6:01 pm
nolie, basically, it all comes down to whether I want to trust someone coming onto a blog and posting comments, when it comes to optimizing a lineup? And the extent of their posts about the subject is basically “it’s always been done this way” or “you can’t just make a lineup with a computer.” Or do I want to trust three guys who skeptically looked at the issue and studied it in great detail, in an in-depth manner? I’ve got no reason to believe the three guys who studied the issue manipulated the data to reach a certain conclusion as part of some grand conspiracy to show that the best hitters should bat leadoff, second and fourth. But many are paranoid conspiracy theorists with foil on their heads who think every sabermetrician is out to turn us into communists or something. I’m not sure exactly what the anti-sabermetric crowd is thinking, especially at this point in the game.
richbrave
February 13th, 2012
6:06 pm
SHAUN:
That the ’saber’ folks are dangerous? Just the name begs for pointed references.Heh!
Murph
February 13th, 2012
6:07 pm
But many are paranoid conspiracy theorists with foil on their heads who think every sabermetrician is out to turn us into communists or something.
Or perhaps they don’t care about this stuff as much as you do and, like you, enjoy pushing buttons…
richbrave
February 13th, 2012
6:08 pm
If you haven’t read CARROLL’s article on her trip to CUBA, do so. Good stuff.
richbrave
February 13th, 2012
6:10 pm
Think February 19th. Let’s go BRAVES.
Derek
February 13th, 2012
6:13 pm
For those of you stating that shoulder problems, look at Roy Halladay who went on the DL twice for such problems, never having surgery, earlier in his career while with TOR. He, too, had to make adjustments, and became an elite pitcher from a big pitcher with a lot of upside. I hope for better results from Hanson’s adjustments.
abeeewright
February 13th, 2012
6:20 pm
I’m pretty sure Fredo has read the conclusion “batting order doesn’t make a significant difference in run production” and decided to bat Alex Gonzalez second just to push sabermaticians’ buttons.
Murph
February 13th, 2012
6:24 pm
You’re assuming Fredo can read… that’s a bit of a leap.
I saw one of his lineup cards for sale in the MLB.com auction… instead of names in each spot he had drawn pictures of each guy.
It was hard to tell who was who… except for BMac. That was pretty obvious.
New Mexico Lee
February 13th, 2012
6:33 pm
McFann in 5, 4, 3 ….
abeeewright
February 13th, 2012
6:43 pm
Murph @ 6:24 … <g>
CB
February 13th, 2012
6:50 pm
Catcher’s mask,right?
abeeewright
February 13th, 2012
7:09 pm
It’s such a sad thing when blog dies so young.
Alas, poor “Pitchers and catchers report soon, Hanson without hitch.” I knew him, Horatio, a fellow of infinite jest, of most excellent fancy. He hath bore me on his back a thousand times, and now how abhorr’d in my imagination it is! My gorge rises at it.
New Mexico Lee
February 13th, 2012
7:12 pm
WOW, I think I hear taps in the distance.