10:55 pm January 23, 2012, by David O'Brien
February 1st, 20123:31 pm
deep pen = new moneyball
February 1st, 20123:33 pm
Not that I think the Marlins will finish ahead of the Braves…I just find it funny that we are so quick to dismiss Johnson as injury prone yet ignore Jurrjens and Hanson’s histories. Especially Hanson since he’s got a similar upside to Johnson, and both of their injuries were shoulder related.
RC, who ignores Hanson and Jurrjens’s injury histories? What separates the Braves and the Marlins, in terms of starting pitching, is the pitching depth. Without Johnson, the Marlins have Buehrle, who is a slight-better-than-league-average innings-eater, and a lot of question marks. Sure they have promise in guys like Sanchez and Nolasco but they haven’t proven they can be consistent big league starters.
And sure the Braves have several young guys who may not be that great right now. But they 6-7 deep without Hanson and Jurrjens.
For the Marlins to out-pitch the Braves, Johnson pretty much has to have at least a very good season. Maybe not Cy Young caliber but very good. Or they need lots of other guys who so far have been fairly mediocre and/or inconsistent to step up big. Or, if Johnson is pretty good and the other guys pitch to their norms or slightly better, they would need at least 2-3 down years from Braves starters in addition to Hanson and Jurrjens being hurt or ineffective.
It’s not about ignoring the possibility that Hanson and Jurrjens could miss some significant time at some point this season. It’s about the Braves’ pitching depth versus the Marlins’ lack of pitching depth.
February 1st, 20123:34 pm
If Viz is logging low leverage innings in the ‘pen, why use up those arb years? — abwright
You’re thinking a lot more about “low leverage” situations and arb years than actual Braves officials are. They’re thinking about doing what they can do to win now with the payroll and personnel they have.
February 1st, 20123:35 pm
Another thing about moving to Orlando – make sure you have a job already lined up. Unemployment there is bad.
February 1st, 20123:38 pm
If the Braves want to win, they better be thinking about low-leverage situations, high-leverage situations, and anywhere in between, and who they have to use in those situations. As far as arb years, I’m sure they aren’t thinking too much about that if they are concerned about winning now.
Actually, I think it’s the pother way around. People here are very willing to believe that Jurrjns and Hanson will be toast this year due to injuries, but think the Marlins will have no worries with Josh Johnson, who – while being one of the best (if not THE best pitcher in the NL) has missed more games by far than either Hanson or Jurrjens the past two years.
DOB They’re thinking about doing what they can do to win now with the payroll and personnel they have.
dont you hate it when they do that? :- )
February 1st, 20123:40 pm
Sure they have promise in guys like Sanchez and Nolasco but they haven’t proven they can be consistent big league starters.
That’s not being fair at all to Anibal Sanchez. Guy has had a very strong last two years.
February 1st, 20123:43 pm
lew Josh Johnson, who – while being one of the best (if not THE best pitcher in the NL) has missed more games by far than either Hanson or Jurrjens the past two years.
his entire career, really has been injury riddled. only 2 seasons out of 6 have been healthy. only 9 starts last year.
David O’Brien, February 1st, 2012, 3:24 pm … “… if at all possible, avoid living within an 8-10 mile radius of Disney.”
Don’t they say the same thing for Chernobyl?
Ha. Yes, and for good reason in both cases.
February 1st, 20123:47 pm
With so much bullpen depth the Braves could afford to keep Vizciano in AAA as a starter, but it would be nice to see him take the load off of OVentbrel. So much pitching its crazy…We have so many solid relief pitching prospects coming as well.
February 1st, 20123:48 pm
Efrim – I don’t know. Sanchez certainly has weathered some very bad times in his personal life, seems to be a very good Dude and while he has been a bit more reliable the past two years, still shakes out ads a number three pitcher at best.
Add Buerhle, another number three nd Nolasco, who really has NOT turned out as expected andf without Johnson pitching a full season and putting up Josh Johnson- like numbers, that is a VERY suspect staff.
February 1st, 20123:49 pm
Efrim, true. But I don’t know if Sanchez is good enough to propel the Marlins’ rotation past the Braves, provided the other Marlins’ starters perform about as expected. They still need Johnson to be healthy and effective and someone like Nolasco to step up. Sanchez and Buehrle are very solid but they are just that. The Braves have about 8-9 guys that could very well come reasonably close to pitching as well as guys like Sanchez and Buehrle in their normal years. Several Braves pitchers aren’t going to eat innings like Sanchez and Buehrle but many of them have a decent shot at pitching at least as well.
February 1st, 20123:51 pm
I wasn’ really talking about the Marlins rotation vs. the Braves, but more that Anibal is a lot better than people here give him credit for.
February 1st, 20123:54 pm
The Marlins have a great lineup. Reyes at the top, Hanley will rebound, Mike Stanton will be a MVP candidate and I believe will lead the NL in Home runs. But I agree with LEW about there pitching, which will keep them in 3rd place or lower.
Lew, I think most folks realize Johnson is bigger worry than Hanson and Jurrjens, especially considering how important Johnson is to the Marlins and how the Braves are better equipped to absorb the loss of Hanson, Jurrjens or both. Of course you get those few fans who are all about doom and gloom and don’t realize the pitching depth the Braves have amassed.
February 1st, 20123:55 pm
That’s fine, and using Viz in the pen does make sense. However using Teheran and Delgado like Fredi said just doesn’t make much sense at all. Teheran hasn’t exactly shown the command, and neither pitcher has a knockout breaking ball as they rely on their FB/CH combo as starters.
February 1st, 20123:56 pm
I really hope Hanson is healthy. If he is, I love our chances. He’s the best pitcher in the organization, as I have said many times.
February 1st, 20123:59 pm
Keith Law is high on Teheran but has said that his curveball is below average and that he might have to scrub it altogether.
February 1st, 20124:00 pm
Hanson needs to turn into our Ace. We need him to give us 7+ inning starts more often.
February 1st, 20124:01 pm
VaBravesFan, I could see the Marlins having a very good offense. But besides Reyes, Hanley, Stanton and possibly Morrison, I think they are very weak.
And let’s not forget that before last season, Reyes wasn’t exactly a perennial MVP candidate. Don’t get me wrong. Even if Reyes falls back to say his 2008 season, he’ll still be quite a player. But the Marlins have plenty of holes to go along with their four most talented hitters. And at least a couple of those four talented hitters aren’t a sure bet to provide the production necessary to make up for their weak spots.
February 1st, 20124:04 pm
I’ve seen good breaking balls from Teheran, but it really lacks consistency batter to batter. At least that’s what I saw in his starts last year and in the Futures game.
February 1st, 20124:05 pm
VaBravesFan, Hanson needs to turn into the Braves’ ace, or what?
Hanson had a 105 ERA+ and threw 130 innings last season, far from ace material. The Braves, as a staff, finished 3rd in ERA+, 3rd in fewest runs allowed per game, 4th in lowest ERA and 3rd in fewest runs allowed. Depth, depth, depth, folks!
February 1st, 20124:09 pm
Just syaing it would be nice to eventually have that 1 guy atop the rotation who makes a big difference. Hanson has the stuff to be that guy, the only question is health.
The more I hear about how bad Teheran’s breaking ball is the more I wonder how he came to be rated one of the top pitching prospects in the game… he must have one helluva fastball/changeup combo.
February 1st, 20124:10 pm
Oh, and don’t get me wrong. As a Braves fan, of course I want Hanson to be an ace. If Hanson is an ace, that goes a long way towards the Braves either comfortably taking the spot at the second-best team in the NL and pushing the Phillies for the NL East title. Of course I want that. But it’s not doom and gloom if Hanson falls short of being an ace this season.
February 1st, 20124:12 pm
I’ve always wondered the same. Prospects are prospects, more will fail than succeed. There is a chance Teheran could never make it while Delgado ends up being the prized pitcher. That’s prospects.
February 1st, 20124:14 pm
Baseball America doesn’t feel the same way as Keith Law, as most all of their writers think he is the best RH pitching prospect in the sport and 2nd only to Matt Moore overall. Keith Law has rated a few ahead of him and I’d expect the same next week when he reveals his rankings. I’d bet he is out of the Top 10 on his rankings wheras for Baseball America, all of the writers had Teheran in their Top 5. Law likes Cardinals RHP Shelby Miller more, I know that much.
February 1st, 20124:15 pm
Having top starting pitchers makes a huge difference. I’m confident in saying we have a better offense and bullpen over the Phillies, but when you factor in the rotation and there top 3 who are better than any of our starters, that makes them better.
February 1st, 20124:16 pm
Law even had Vizcaino rated higher than Teheran in his mid-season rankings last July.
That’s right Keith all 20 year old pitchers never get better after 20 and it is impossible for them to improve a pitch after 20. All 20 year old pitchers should scrub all pitches that don’t rival Riy Hallidays pitches at this point in their limited pitching careers.
February 1st, 20124:17 pm
Having top starting pitchers makes a huge difference
Totally agree. Go ask the Phillies about that. Three aces will get you through 162 games just fine.
February 1st, 20124:18 pm
Efrim, people on here talk all day long about how average Teheran’s breaking stuff is too. Is it that he’s being held to higher standards because he’s so highly regarded? If not… then what makes him so much better than Delgado or Vizcaino?
Not trying to be snarky, I honestly don’t know.
February 1st, 20124:19 pm
Patio Daddio – some free advice. Be careful what you say about Keith Law around here.
Actually, although I wouldn’t say it’s likely, I can see a very possible scenario in which Hanson doesn’t pitch like an ace but the Braves challenge the Phillies as the best team in the NL.
The offense would need to bounce back to something like it was in 2010. Prado and Heyward need to bounce back, Uggla needs a consistent season, Chipper needs to stay reasonably healthy and continued to be an on-base machine, Freeman needs to come fairly close to a repeat season, McCann just needs to be McCann, Pastornicky needs to hold his own as something close to a league-average hitter. While I don’t think it’s likely for every single one of these pieces to fall perfectly into place, I don’t think it’s all that farfetched either. If it happens, look out Phillies.
February 1st, 20124:20 pm
As a 22-year-old rookie, Roy Halladay made 18 starts and 18 relief appearances for Toronto in 1999. He was Baseball America’s No. 12 overall prospect before that season….
As a 22-year-old in his second season with the Mets, Nolan Ryan had 10 starts and 15 relief appearances.
February 1st, 20124:21 pm
Murph, his FB/CH are pretty deadly. You should watch the Futures game at bat vs. Bryce Harper. He threw him a devastating changeup and then struck him out looking on a fastball on the black. He is super young, a full year younger than Delgado. I think his ultimate ceiling is higher and that of a #1 starter whereas Delgado is more of a #2.
February 1st, 20124:22 pm
I remember Keith Law saying he see’s Teheran being a 1/2 starter, Vizciano a 1/2 or elite reliever (but said would be stupid to keep him in pen) and Delgado 3/4 starter, He has said Gilmartin is like Mike Minor 0.2, yes not 2.0 but 0.2.. So its safe to say he doesn’t like our 1 rounder. lol
February 1st, 20124:24 pm
As a 22-year-old rookie, Roy Halladay made 18 starts and 18 relief appearances for Toronto in 1999.
That’s fine for good ole Doc, but I’ll play it safe with Teheran and Delgado by starting them in Gwinnett rather than sitting in the pen for the Braves. Chances are, Teheran or Delgado will be starting the season in the rotation anyway because of Hudson’s back. I’d rather Vizcaino and Varvaro or Hoover over Teheran and Delgado in short stints. Just my two cents.
February 1st, 20124:27 pm
So its safe to say he doesn’t like our 1 rounder. lol
I’ve seen him say that Gilmartin has a #4 starter ceiling. Law likes upside and isn’t really a fan of high floor, low ceiling guys – especially for 1st rounders.
I remember Keith Law saying he see’s Teheran being a 1/2 starter, Vizciano a 1/2 or elite reliever (but said would be stupid to keep him in pen) and Delgado 3/4 starter
If the breaking ball never gains consistency, then #2 starter makes sense for Teheran.
February 1st, 20124:28 pm
In 2011, the Braves did not have a better offense than the Phillies. Neither was all that good. But I agree that the Braves have at least as much offensive talent and should at least be as good as the Phillies in 2012.
I don’t think Tommy Hanson becoming an ace necessarily makes the Braves match the Phillies, although it would help immensely. The easiest way for the Braves to hang with the Phillies is for their hitters to do what they are capable of and have big seasons in that regard. If that happens, they will have a vastly better offense than the Phillies and the Phillies will only be slightly better on the run-prevention side of things. Now, that is easier said than done and is not all that likely.
February 1st, 20124:29 pm
What in the world do the Braves do if all these guy’s work out and are at least solid arms? Or what happens if Delgado is lights out in ST while Minor has a ok spring? Would we really keep Minor in AAA? Something has to give lol
February 1st, 20124:30 pm
Some great pitchers continue to develop at the major league level. Why even Halliday didn’t become Halliday until his year 25 season even though, as pointed out by DOB, his rookie season was year 22
February 1st, 20124:32 pm
Brandon Beachy could easily be a good #2, I was reading something about Beachy’s fastball being one of the best in baseball, hopefully he can improve on his breaking stuff.
February 1st, 20124:33 pm
Some great pitchers continue to develop at the major league level.
Agreed. Let’s just wait and see on all of them. So……..what do you want to talk about in the meantime? We have like 5-6 years, but I’m game.
February 1st, 20124:37 pm
Law likes Cardinals RHP Shelby Miller more, I know that much….Efrim
I liked what I saw of Shelby B4 he was drafted
February 1st, 20124:43 pm
I liked what I saw of Shelby B4 he was drafted
Believe he was 2009, #18 overall if I recall correctly. Can’t wait to see how he turns out vs. Mike Minor…….
February 1st, 20124:50 pm
have expressed doubts as to whether or not Vizcaino’s frame will allow him to handle a starter’s workload at the major league level.
I think what has been said is that his frame isn’t projectable, which isn’t quite the same thing. And while he’s a little light in the upper body, his lower body and legs are Bunyan-esque. He hasn’t yet developed into a true drop-and-drive guy, and I think there’s another 2 MPH on his heater once he really puts those legs to work,
Frankly, Teheran is the one who looks as if he needs some physical maturity, but he’s rangy enough that few think he won’t fill out.
February 1st, 20124:52 pm
And while he’s a little light in the upper body, his lower body and legs are Bunyan-esque.
Totally agree. Start the son of a gun.
February 1st, 20124:54 pm
And by that I mean eventually, he doesn’t have to be in the rotation now, obviously.
February 1st, 20124:56 pm
Newest Justified recap for those that watch:
February 1st, 20124:57 pm
yes Shelby was in Minor’s draft class, I was a bit surprised he made it to 18ish
Listen, if you could combine Julio and Arodys into one pitcher, you could take up a lot of space with future CYAs. Teheran’s change, Arodys’ hammer curve, and either’s gas.
February 1st, 20124:59 pm
Newest Justified recap for those that watch
I’m no longer sure I want to even fly over Harlan, Kentucky. Very high bad-guy-per-capita index.
February 1st, 20125:00 pm
unprojectable pretty much means that they do not see him improving all that much physically, course he could do a Glav and improve in other ways
February 1st, 20125:01 pm
Are the chances different for Vizcaino being succesfull as a reliever or starter?
February 1st, 20125:02 pm
almost as bad as the Carolinsas maybe even worse
February 1st, 20125:03 pm
unprojectable pretty much means that they do not see him improving all that much physically
Exactly. He might not get much bigger, and that would certainly be a concern for a starter’s load.
Of course, Lincecum looks as if he’d get totaled by a rough bus ride and Hudson is about as big as Grinch’s leg…
February 1st, 20125:05 pm
Huddy was so unprojectable @ 6′ 160″ that he wasn’t drafted out of HS IIRC
February 1st, 20125:08 pm
I think there is a good chance Brandon Beachy could be our best starter in 2012.
February 1st, 20125:09 pm
Lincecum and Hudson defy physics.
February 1st, 20125:10 pm
February 1st, 20125:11 pm
for some reason I keep expecting Beachy to come back to earth a bit.
February 1st, 20125:12 pm
I can’t wait for Zeke Spruill to surpass all of em.
February 1st, 20125:14 pm
I bet Zeke was off limits in the Bourne talks. Wren drew a hard line at Spruill and Hoover, instead giving up Clemens and Oberholtzer…….
February 1st, 20125:17 pm
I was reading about Beachy, on http://capitolavenueclub.com/ just scroll down a bit. Those specific stats show Beachy having one of the best 4 seam fastballs in baseball.
February 1st, 20125:18 pm
Well, seems to me it depends on repertoire and what a pitcher needs in order to develop, regarding whether it is good for a pitcher to pitch out of the major league bullpen instead of start in the minors.
Seems that if a pitcher’s secondary stuff is already solid and he has a decent idea of how to use it, and he’s a power arm, it’s more acceptable for him to be in the bullpen than some guy who needs to refine his secondary stuff and learn how and when to use it.
If a guy is going to succeed in the big leagues, like a Nolan Ryan or a Roy Halladay, mostly with swing-and-miss stuff and that stuff is already where it needs to be, why not throw him in the bullpen?
If a guy is going to succeed in the big leagues mostly with deception and needs some work refining his secondary stuff, seems he needs to be starting.
I know it’s not always clear-cut but seems like these are the general guidelines.
February 1st, 20125:30 pm
Most teams (like the Nationals) call up their prospect studs after May 31st so they can keep that player under team control for an additional year. Some teams (like the Braves) call up their prospect studs before May 31st, if they are the team’s best option, possibly giving up that extra year of team control. And guess what… it works for both teams.
The Nationals keep their one or two blue chip prospect(s) for an additional 105 or so games under team control, however infrequently. The Braves, on the other hand, have one of the deepest farm systems in baseball. The Braves have the luxury of bringing up studs on opening day because in 5 or so years from now they will probably (hopefully) have another one or two or three prospects ready to take over his spot. For the Braves, the value of winning a few more games in the first 2 months of the year outweighs the potential of losing a good young player to free agency a year early because their farm is stacked.
February 1st, 20125:39 pm
I’d rather have the extra year, I fail to see why anyone would not.
February 1st, 20125:48 pm
David O’Brien, February 1st, 2012, 3:34 pm … “You’re thinking a lot more about “low leverage” situations and arb years than actual Braves officials are.”
It’s early February and there’s not much to talk about.
Yes, I want the Braves to field the best team with the resources they have.
However, it would be silly for Vizcaino to burn up an arb year sitting on the bench. If Atlanta puts him on the big club’s ‘pen, I hope he makes 80 appearances.
February 1st, 20125:51 pm
I do not want him making anywhere near 80 appearances, in fact I would prefer that nobody make 80 appearances, that’s what a deep pen should help
February 1st, 20125:58 pm
80 appearances = hyperbole
Coach (2012 Fredi's beisbol fandango)
February 1st, 20125:59 pm
February 1st, 2012
I do not want him making anywhere near 80 appearances, in fact I would prefer that nobody make 80 appearances, that’s what a deep pen should help.
Venters made 85 appearances last season which led all N.L. relief pitchers.
February 1st, 20126:04 pm
why you ol’ rascal ABW, you were just leadin’ me on
February 1st, 20126:05 pm
course I don’t want him making 70 either…..
February 1st, 20126:42 pm
I figured someone would jump on me with both boots for the “80 appearances” line. Baiting the hook, reeling them in.
Now to face traffic. Peace!
jeffrey doo doo
February 1st, 20126:45 pm
Now to face traffic. Peace!
I hope he means with a car
February 1st, 20126:58 pm
February 1st, 20126:59 pm
In a Lindy’s magazine they have 30 starting pitchers in MLB ahead of the first Brave SP who is Hanson. Hudson is at #37. Now I realize our strength in SP is the depth and potential of guys like Teheran, Delgado,Minor and Beachy and not necessarily dominant, elite guys, but come on. There aren’t 30 SP in baseball better than Hanson and there certainly isn’t 36 better than Huddy. Fu** this magazine! They did pick Kimbrel as the best CP/RP in baseball which is right on imo.
February 1st, 20127:11 pm
where is JJ?
February 1st, 20127:13 pm
70 some dead soccer fans?
February 1st, 20127:15 pm
JJ is at #56. How I missed Beachy I don’t know, but they have him at #36 right behind Huddy. Suuure he is.
February 1st, 20127:18 pm
Of course Lindy’s is a “fantasy” mag, so they’re obviously focusing on health and strikeouts regarding pitchers. Plus “stuff” I reckon. IDK, too nerdy for me though I read this stuff cover to cover cause my love for this game.
February 1st, 20127:23 pm
there are 4 or 5 baseball mags this time of yeat at least, i used to buy them all each year back B4 the web was available. They will all have a somewhat different ranking of players and teams. Interesting to see Beachy ranked that high. I would be thrilled to be wrong about him and could easily be since i no longer get to see players regularly on their way up
February 1st, 20127:37 pm
Someone told me to go play in traffic, so I thought I’d give it a try.
Didn’t much like it.
February 1st, 20127:42 pm
I can see how 30 pitchers in MLB might be ranked ahead of Hanson, especially with injury concerns.
Of course, first half last year, there were precious few who should have been ranked ahead of Hanson or Jurrjens.
If Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, Beachy, and someone else can have a healthy season, I don’t feel like the Braves need to apologize to anyone about their pitching staff.
February 1st, 20127:46 pm
what I read most all the magazines like Beachy a lot and even Hanson though he’s comeing into a season with pretty big injury concerns. Still they see him as still a future ace type. JJ isn’t really highly thought of for his low K rate and how he’s so injury prone. One thing I was reading is aout Vizcaino and how developing a solid changeup to go with his other stuff could easily make him an ace for a long time.
Freeman is nobody’s pick to be slop. Everyone agrees he’s the real deal.
McFann O O o
February 1st, 20127:51 pm
Homemade Chicken Pot Pie = The best food ever invented.
February 1st, 20127:54 pm
nope, pizza followed by lasagne
February 1st, 20127:55 pm
I like Beachy’s attitude on the field. He looks focused out there and confident. His change and curve need work, but the fastball gets no better. It’s pretty straight, but he locates it well and I always look at arm action and the deception and his is unreal.
February 1st, 20127:57 pm
I second nolie’s proposal
February 1st, 20127:59 pm
any mexican food
Tomahawkin (The Godfather)
February 1st, 20128:04 pm
McFann O O o
“Homemade Chicken Pot Pie = The best food ever invented.”
Talking to someone who doesn’t eat, biscuits, ice cream, cheese, pie, brownies, fudge, etc
Scratch that, I second Soph’s proposal
February 1st, 20128:05 pm
What are you putting in your pot pies??!
February 1st, 20128:13 pm
“I like Beachy’s attitude on the field. He looks focused out there and confident”
Co-Sign and BB is his own toughest critic…Especially on the Postgame interviews on 680AM The Fan…He sounds like a well experienced veteran in his interviews…He has the poise of a young Kevin Millwood of 1997-1998
Pizza’s great, too, but my Mom’s Chicken Pot Pie…wow. It’s an incredible thing…
“Yuck”?! About…Chicken Pot Pie?! I’m…not sure I cann talk to you anymore…
Is there a reason you don’t eat any of that stuff?!…
February 1st, 20128:15 pm
I don’t eat pot pie, I tasted it once 15 years ago and nearly threw up, Just give me some Church’s or Pop-eyes w/o the bisquits
February 1st, 20128:17 pm
Tomahawkin I don’t eat pot pie, I tasted it once 15 years ago and nearly threw up
We talk baseball, other sports, music, movies, BBQ and whatever (except politics or religion)
Atlanta Braves RSS feed
Previous entries »
Send a feedback technical issue
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution