Ray @11:11 – Agree completely….We could do a LOT worse if team is sold. We were spoiled by the good Ted Turner (after he hired Bobby Cox as GM)…but Ted has left the building…and like Elvis, he isn’t coming back.
If the Braves end up keeping Jurrjens, Prado, EOF and Chipper gets that 123 game mark and wants to play in 2013 – that $40 million evaporates to like $15 million pretty quickly.
Of course, I give it a 1% chance of all that happening based on the pitching depth we have for starters and relievers.
The Braves roster right now is a mess and it doesn’t figure to be sorted out for any kind of run in 2012. Chipper and Uggla are vastly overpaid defensive liabilities providing terribly inconsistent offensive support (Uggla by nature, Jones by virtue of not playing), there is no shortstop, the catcher is beat up physically, the outfield is sorely lacking of power and production, and the starting pitching is either recovering from injury/surgery or trying to figure out how to get out of the fifth inning. With the competition in the East on the upswing the Braves could be facing more months akin to September 2011.
efrim I think it’s a stretch to see Bourn re-signed here. I don’t think the Braves will overpay for him, even if they do have $40 million to spend next offseason.
so, who are they going to overpay? victorino? upton? maybe angel pagan? or will they overpay in prospects for austin jackson or chris young?
no CFer for 2013, and we will have to get one. with some $$$ available, where else are we going to spend it?
RC, yes I do because I said SIMILAR. not exactly what Crawford received but still to rich for the Braves. Does Scott Boras ring a bell???? He’s gonna get top dollar for Bourn.
I’ve no doubt that Boras will get top dollar for Bourn, and I agree that it’s really unlikely that the Braves will be the team to pay that top dollar. However, I do disagree that his contract will be “similar” to Crawford’s, which was for 7-years and $142 million. I think that even at the most aggressive prediction it’s unlikely that Bourn tops 5-years, $85 million. A $60 million difference is not what I would call “similar”.
I don’t know that Bourn is worth that. But, I don’t think the Braves couldn’t afford that.
I think what people are forgetting is that Wren isn’t going to go into next offseason thinking we have $40 million to spend on contracts. They have four first year arbitration eligible players for 2013 in Heyward, Hanson, Venters and Medlen(not counting C-Mart). In 2014, Freeman, Beachy, and Kimbrel will then be arb. eligble for the first time. Long term contract extensions for a guy like McCann will come into play and if Heyward/Freeman progress, Wren may want to lock them up. So I don’t believe Wren will blow all of the dollars on free agents. Arbitration raises will have to be paid for.
the Braves are not free agent addicts and they seldom spend lavishly even if they can afford to.
I think they will continue to loo for some kinda deal for a young CFer.
For folks complaining about payroll, it seems that the Braves got their run going in ‘91 with a very cheap team, picked up some payroll to finally win the WS, and then declined back to mid market figures. — abwright
I can only assume you weren’t following the Braves in the ’90s. Beginning in ‘93 and for the next decade, the Braves consistently ranked among the top five major league payrolls and were often in the top three. In ‘94 they had the highest payroll in the majors, about $49 million (the Yankees were second at $46 mill).
The Braves had a payroll of $84 million in 2000, only about $5 mill below last year’s (and probably this year’s) payroll. The Yankees ($93 mill) and Dodgers ($88 mill) were the only teams with higher payrolls in 2000. The Braves slipped to seventh in payroll by 2002 at approx $93 mill, still higher than their payroll would be nearly a decade later.
The Braves jumped back up to third in payroll in 2003 at $106 million, trailing only the New York teams, the Yankees ($153 mill) and Mets ($117 mill). Atlanta’s 2.4 million home attendance that year was about 1 million below the Yankees’ attendance, even as the Braves were winning the 12th of their 14 consecutive division titles.
It was the next year, 2004, when the Braves began to slash payroll, cutting more than $15 million in one year. Ted Turner, their former sugar daddy of an owner, was out of the picture and the Braves under Time Warner ownership went a different direction, looking to remain competitive but also make a profit, or certainly at least not lose money. Attendance had slipped to 2.4 mill in ‘03, which ranked 12th in the majors at a time when the Braves were still winning division titles every year and playing in a nice ballpark that was only seven years old. The Braves had the third-highest payroll in baseball ($103 mill) and a perennial division-title winner, yet ranked 12th in attendance.
The payroll dropped to $90 million in ‘04 and $86 mill in ‘05, and has hovered around that area ever since — about 40 percent of what the Yankees have been spending annually for the past eight years. The Yankees have had payrolls of around $200 million going back to 2004. Liberty Media has owned the Braves since 2007, and Braves CEO Terry McGuirk says they leave it up to him to run the business and set a payroll.
The Braves choose not to disclose what their payroll is and speak only in broad terms of the direction their payroll is headed. They said they expected it to be the same or slightly higher in ‘12 than it was in ‘11, but what exactly was it in ‘11? Depending upon accounting methods and when the figure was calculated — Opening Day, midseason, end of season, overall expenditures — the Braves payroll in ‘11 was anywhere from the $87 mill that Baseball Reference lists to the approx $89 mill that some others have calculated.
Baseball Reference ranked the Braves 15th in payroll and 14th in home attendance at 2.37 million. Six teams had payrolls in excess of $125 million in 2011, and five of those six teams drew more than 3 million in home attendance.
In the Braves’ first four seasons at Turner Field 1997-2000, they ranked in the top 20 percent in baseball in both attendance and payroll, drawing more than 3 million fans annually. But that balance shifted in 2001, when attendance began to slide. It took a few more years before team officials and/or ownership clearly — at least it seems that way to me — made a decision to get that balance back by reducing payroll commensurate with the decline in attendance.
dap01 – Oh, I didn’t miss the first sentence…but you missed where I said we didn’t need a magic rabbit to be competitive this year. Most knowledgeble, unbiased analysts, managers, players, owners, etc consider Wren a very good to excellent GM.
September not withstanding, we have a very good core of players, and one of the top 2-3 pitching staffs in MLB top to bottom…maybe the best bullpen. Why would Wren make a dumb move (as called for by many fans) just to make a move. Most of the suggested moves don’t improve this team long term…in fact, many make no sense at all. When the right opportunity comes along, he will act (within the restraints he is required to meet).
Maybe he makes a trade for a CF. Who knows? You heard from DOB that they were looking for a CF prospect who could potentially fill in for CF when Bourn leaves……(even though I wouldn’t think in those terms). Plenty of time to figure it out. Just because the team has money doesn’t mean they HAVE to overpay SOMEONE.
the Braves are not free agent addicts and they seldom spend lavishly even if they can afford to.
Exactly. Never been big on it. Not saying they won’t grab one free agent. But it’s certainly possible that they make a trade for a guy making some money like they did for Vazquez after the 2008 season.
DAP, that’s why I wouldn’t be against a trade with Detroit for Austin Jackson.. at least that way we won’t have to be thinking about CF for the forseeable future plus netting us a very good return. And then if we want to look at adding Seth Smith and prospects, it could only deepen our pool of players. I think if we made those 2 moves it would definitely set this club up for a very long and bright future.
I ultimately don’t care about payroll. I care about whether or not I believe the team is putting a team that can win on the field.
I don’t care if they build through the draft and or the minors or with trades or procuring players.
Just don’t tell me that you feel they can win when you’re trying to procure no named corner outfielders because they are only owed about 3 million dollars next year.
You can’t expect people to buy into a team when so much of the lineup is dependant on a player who was in his prime in 1999.
DOB … thanks for the actual numbers on payroll. But, that’s essentially what I was saying.
Cheap team in the early 90’s (90-93), expensive team for about a decade (94-04, including 95 WS and 96&99 WS appearances), back to mid market numbers up to the present (05-12).
Obviously, if you want to drill back to the 70s, Braves had been a cheap team leading up to the 91 break-out.
And yes, I followed the team a lot closer from about 78-86 then I did from 87-00. Poverty sucks.
i mean, we have the best hitting catcher in baseball. a ROY runner up at first, one of the few legit 30 HR threats in baseball at 2nd, the majors leading basestealer and defender in center, and loads of potential in RF. we have the best bullpen in baseball, and a young talented rotation that is 7 or 8 pitchers deep.
throw in a HOF 3rd baseman that is still better than league average, a .300 hitting, .800 OPS LFer, and a rookie SS coming off a great minor league year, and we have a good team.
PMC – I DO believe they can..and will…win. No one can guarantee a WS, but I fully expect them to be competitive.
If I were as bitter and negative and disappointed about a team as some of you, I would find a team that I feel good about supporting. It’s called riding the bandwagon.
PMC I agree completely. I have said a number of times, the payroll is not our issue. I don’t care what they do providing they don’t slash down to the Pirates level. IF it was simply payroll the Yankees and Phils, Mets and Redsox would be going back and forth every year in the WS. Does a high payroll help, of course it does. Does it guarantee anything, absolutely not.
Why on Earth are we dead set toward trading Prado for Seth Smith. Prado is twice the player that Seth Smith is. He’s a better hitter and more versatile, what a stupid trade.
January 3, 2012
Future Shock
Miami Marlins Top 11 Prospects
by Kevin Goldstein
System In 20 Words Or Less: The system finds some depth and star power in Yelich, but there is still an overall lack of elite-level talent.
Five-Star Prospects
1. Christian Yelich, OF
Four-Star Prospects
2. Jose Fernandez, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
3. Marcell Ozuna, OF
4. J.T. Realmuto, C
5. Chad James, LHP
6. Matt Dominguez, 3B
7. Jesus Solorzano, OF
8. Jose Ceda, RHP
9. Jose Urena, RHP
10. Rob Rasmussen, LHP
11. Noah Perio, 2B
I picked mini me fredi to lead us to 3rd and 4th place finishes for 3 or 4 more years. We will miss the playoffs again next year. I’m sure glad the cameras dont catch me picking my boogers anymore. Now turn off that rap music and give me some tissue.
Odds are at least reasonable that Prado will have a better year next season than Smith. In 2010, Prodo was pehaps the best hitter the Braves had – good BA, good OBA, and great clutch hitter.
Odds are that he will return to form in 2012 after getting past his 2011 injury. There is a signigicat progability that the Braves are going to make a huge mistake and trade him for a player who will not be nearly as productive as Prado.
I was wondering just the other day about what DOB’s topic would be for the new blog. I mean, NOTHING is happening involving the Braves. Good job, DOB, with coming up with something worth reading despite having zero material to work with.
Mr. Porter needs Spring Training to get here ASAP. He needs his career and the boys to cushion this horrible blow. God bless him and his family.
Great Prince reference(s). Finally, music I can relate to.
One suggestion for the added lyrics at the bottom of the blog. Include a Youtube link of the song below the lyrics for those of us that have no idea about the song. I’ve never understood including song lyrics in the first place but if there was a link to hear the song, would make more sense. Just a suggestion….
Fielder to Washington would be huge (literally) for the Nats. Find a taker for LaRoche and add another arm in the system and they should be done shopping.
Braves? I imagine Betemit is not a guy they want ’cause of his horrible defense at 3B. Same goes with Theriot at SS. We’ll get our SS in March, people. It’s the LF we should be anticipating.
I’m excited to see Bourn over a full season. I do like the “athletic” concept the Braves are moving towards. Big time. Add athletes that can play defense and we’ll be fine.
Has baseball changed significantly, and Pitching is no longer very important??? Apparently it has – for no one seems to be worried about the Starting Pitching for the Braves. AFTER ALL – Only FOUR of their five Starters are coming off injuries. And everyone knows that an injured pitcher always comes back and is great once again. The Braves do have a wealth of ADDITIONAL young Piitching talent — AND OF COURSE, the fact that – of all the large number of Starting Pitchers that the Braves have had in the 6 or 7 years since Leo left as the Pitching Coach, almost every one of them has become injured. – So why would anyone think that these young pitchers coming on will be injured?????
Just added this last graph to my previous comment on payroll: In the Braves’ first four seasons at Turner Field 1997-2000, they ranked in the top 20 percent in baseball in both attendance and payroll, drawing more than 3 million fans annually. But that balance shifted in 2001, when attendance began to slide. It took a few more years before team officials and/or ownership clearly — at least it seems that way to me — made a decision to get that balance back by reducing payroll commensurate with the decline in attendance.
JimBowdenESPNxmJIM BOWDEN
The best free agents left on the market: 1. Fielder 1B 2. Cespedes CF 3. Madson CL 4. Oswalt 5. Kuroda 6. Jackson 7. Pena 1B 8. Cordero
Been that order of free agents for way too long. Need a few more pieces of wood to fuel that Hot Stove season fire.
“Has baseball changed significantly, and Pitching is no longer very important???
Phils had the best starting rotation in baseball last year and didn’t get past the first round. IT takes offense and situational hitting as well. Something the Braves didn’t seem to do very well last year.
As for the number of arm problems with the Braves pitching staff over the last few years, yeah, kinda freaky huh?
So what do i make of Mike BOURN and Jair JURRJENS to the O’s for Adam JONES and one of their better LHSP minor’s prospects, Jake PETTIT? Another rumor?
“It took a few more years before team officials … made a decision to get that balance back by reducing payroll commensurate with the decline in attendance.”
We’ve already had Don chime in with his doom and gloom on the Braves pitching. Now, cue the folks who want to complain about attendance!
BTW … I’m assuming that TV revenues have also declined (the final end of the TNT monopoly on national day-to-day TV broadcast) for the Braves in addition to attendance. Better raise those ticket prices!
[...] I’m going to say the Braves’ interest in Theriot was overstated, based on what I’ve gathered in the past few days. I’ll stop short of saying it was inaccurate, since it’s no fun explaining why a team suddenly makes a move that you (meaning me) had just said or indicated they would not make. Source ajc.com [...]
“……….But that balance shifted in 2001, when attendance began to slide. It took a few more years before team officials and/or ownership clearly — at least it seems that way to me — made a decision to get that balance back by reducing payroll commensurate with the decline in attendance………..” DOB
I’m sure you’re correct, but won’t that ‘chicken or egg’ approach take us all the way to PITTSBURGH?
One suggestion for the added lyrics at the bottom of the blog. Include a Youtube link of the song below the lyrics for those of us that have no idea about the song. I’ve never understood including song lyrics in the first place but if there was a link to hear the song, would make more sense. Just a suggestion…. — TommyP
There’s a link to a recording or video of the song BEFORE the lyrics, in the paragraph where I introduce the song. Has been for quite a while now, Tommy. For years, in fact. Done that way so you could, theoretically, hit the link, play the song and follow the lyrics. Makes more sense than putting the link to the song AFTER the lyrics, don’t ya think? Of course, you’d have to have the blog up on a separate screen after clicking the song link in order to follow along on the lyrics. But that’s not difficult if a person wants to have the lyrics while listening to the tune.
If I did it the way you suggested, fewer people are going to see the link because a lot of folks have no interest in reading the song lyrics.
“As for the number of arm problems with the Braves pitching staff over the last few years, yeah, kinda freaky huh?”
Has any rotation made it through the full MLB season without at least one pitcher having an arm problem? In the history of baseball?
I’m surprised that pitchers aren’t going ahead and getting TJ surgery before they start a professional career, rather than waiting until the career is underway.
You can tell a scribe by the callus on his index finger and thumb. You can tell a pitcher by the scar on his pitching elbow.
“… won’t that ‘chicken or egg’ approach take us all the way to PITTSBURGH?”
If revenues are strongly correlated to attendance, then
a. a low attendance team will become a low payroll team or
b. a team will have to do something to boost attendance.
I’m actually amazed that Montreal and Florida stayed in business as long as they did (obviously Montreal moved to Washington and Florida moved to a new stadium in Miami).
richbrave: I can’t answer that, but the Braves had a perennial division winner longer than any other city in baseball history, and attendance declined sharply in the last third of that run, presumably because fans got tired of merely seeing a team win 90-plus games and the division title every year with only occasional pennants. My guess is that sounds mighty nice about now, no?
Oh wow, just turned the blog on and saw we were already on page 5, so I figured something might be going down. Nope. Same old sh**, new day. Carry on ……
“Am I wrong is assuming that during a poor economy, an improved product on the field will have to come before significant attendance increases?”
I think the problem is more complex than that. The people making the financial decisions likely aren’t willing to invest another $20mm, in the hope that the improved product will increase attendance. The problem is, by the time an investment like that would pay off (which I think it would, but it might take a few seasons), the person(s) responsible for making those decisions would be fired for the short-term losses accrued in the meantime. So in a down economy, you have to keep in mind that the people making those decisions are not willing to take on the risk associated much for the same reasons that we are less likely to buy tickets. It’s a different scale, but similar concept.
“The Orioles are fairly confident they will add another outfielder, though that wouldn’t necessarily portend an Adam Jones trade. The Orioles were not overly intrigued by the Braves’ offer of Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado, and a minor league pitcher. Connolly doesn’t see Jurrjens as a centerpiece for a Jones trade. Instead, the Orioles are intrigued by Tommy Hanson.”
But the Orioles weren’t overly intrigued by that package and reportedly wanted two of the Braves’ top pitching prospects in addition to Prado and Jurrjens, and the Braves understandably balked. Not sure if that is 100 percent true, but something made those talks lose traction.
Here’s what I know: The Orioles want a frontline starter for Jones. Or someone with the substantial upside to be a frontline starter. A name that intrigues the Orioles – heck, that intrigues everyone in baseball – is the Braves’ 25-year-old right-hander Tommy Hanson.
He dealt with some shoulder/back problems last year but is one of the best young pitchers in the game. That’s also the reason the Braves likely wouldn’t move him, for Jones or likely anyone else. If Hanson is obtainable, though, so is Jones. Regardless, Atlanta has plenty of good young pitching, so they remain an obvious trade partner. But I’d be surprised if Jurrjens was the centerpiece.
Right. Tommy Hanson for Adam Jones. Not to mention it’s really 4 years of Tommy Hanson for 2 years of Adam Jones. I’m sorry, but the O’s would have to add Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop for me to even consider it based on what starters with 4 years of control have netted this year. And Hanson isn’t going anywhere based on the shoulder injury.
How will Seth Smith do in ATL when away from the confines of Coors Field where by far his best numbers have been generated? I agree that the trade possibilities don’t really help the Braves and I am very concerned Pastornicky will be a defensive disaster (9 errors in 27 games at AAA vs 12 errors by Gonzo for 149 games). So we need to keep Prado as he is our most flexible infielder. If we have to deal, deal Jurgens, but it might be better to wait until the summer to see how the rest of the rotation shakes out and that’s about the time his knee starts to buckle, as it has for the prior years.
DOB, Theriot may not be much defensively, but have you compared him to Pastornicky’s minor league fielding history? In my view, the most pressing need now is a capable shortstop if Tyler can’t catch the ball and/or fails to hit and run as advertised. I think the Braves can make offensive improvements with better years from Prado, Heyward and McCann, not with an outfielder who has lived off the Coors Field launching pad.
And I don’t think Atlanta is one of those markets where you can easily justify that spending another $20mm on payroll would result in a net increase in profits. If the transit were better, maybe. But that’s a different argument.
DOB, very good point. I have always had the mindset, I would rather make it and lose than not make the playoffs at all. If you make it, you always have a chance,ALWAYS. Many on here are concerned about the Nat’s and the Marlins passing the Braves. You make it enough times to the playoffs, sooner or later you will pull out a WS championship.
And I don’t believe Jurrjens and Prado make sense for Jones because they should be getting 0-3 players for Jones. At least 2-3 players with lots of control. Prado and Jurrjens don’t fit that description.
I’ve never seen the link before but that shows you how quickly I pass the lyrics by…
I clicked on it and…..well, it proves anyone can make money singing. I would’ve thought that was a joke if I didn’t hear you raving about the guy so much. But….obviously he has his fans. I know this will offend some so I’ll just leave it at that.
I don’t get this–the Braves need a right-handed power bat, and they are thinking of giving up Prado (a popular right-handed hitter) for a left-handed hitter who has very similar stats? They are already have an over-balance of left-handed hitting. This makes no sense at all.
abwright If revenues are strongly correlated to attendance, then
a. a low attendance team will become a low payroll team or
b. a team will have to do something to boost attendance.
y’all do realize that the braves dont really have a problem with attendance, right? they also dont really have a problem with payroll.
neither is as high as it could be, but both are alot better than what many franchises have.
Ben_DuronioBen Duronio
It wouldn’t be outlandish to trade Hanson instead of Jurrjens. Would make 2012 team worse though, unless MLB talent is acquired for Tommy.
I would never do Hanson for Jones though.
Again, comments made by people who think Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado walk on water. Beachy and Minor too.
Someone from last night asked a question about the Braves getting new unis this year. I thought you mentioned it was just another jersey to add to the 4 already. Can you please confirm that or are the Braves getting new jerseys?
Trust me, nothing you could say about the great Mr. Waits is going to offend any of his hardcore fans. He’s beyond that in our view. Sort of like those who criticize Dylan’s voice and say they “don’t get” the appeal. That’s fine — they don’t get it. No worries. Different tastes. Some see true musical genius, others just see some hobo-looking guy with boozy, gravelly voice (Waits).
And your summary was perfect with Dylan and not getting it. That’s how music is, though. Different people hear different things. Pretty weird, honestly.
On another note, has Omar Vizquel ever been discussed by the Braves? And am I right in assuming that mid-March or later is when we get that SS?
BravePack: Braves are getting an alternate uniform. They’re being secretive about it, expected to announce soon. Not sure if it’s to be worn any particular days, but was told late last season it’d be an alternate uniform. Hopefully it’s the off-white throwback uni with the Indian logo that they wore last year at Dodger Stadium. That was a great look.
Omar Vizquel’s not considered an option for the utility infield/backup shortstop job the Braves are trying to fill. Too old. With Vizquel, you’d have days where the left side of your infield would be 40 and 45. That ain’t happening.
We may be getting to the point of the problem this winter. Where Wren is talking about JJ, many teams may be wanting TH instead. And at that point I am sure Wren is hanging up the phone. It does take a sane person on the other end to pull off a solid trade.
So the smaller the attendence, the smaller the payroll and then the smaller the paroll, the smaller the attendence….until you have a team looking for a new owner who is willing to invest and spend in order to try to build a better team and draw more people. However, it seems that Atlanta is similar to where I am (Central Fl)in that the local fans become bored or complacent with the product no matter what it is. Other wise how can you explain the having of good teams that actually make the playoffs only to not even sell the playoff games out. I kind of get it down here. Our population is mostly from people from all different areas but mainly the Northeast US. So when the Yankees, Phillies and Red Sox come to Tampa the attendance is good. Outside that??? …just so so at best. But what about The Atl? After SO many ugly years in the 70’s and 80’s, you’d think that the population would very excited about a good, competitive product. …enough bable from me.
With all these Orioles rumors, you guys remind me of my kids. Example.
My son, who is 7, knows all he has to do is say something to his younger sister, who is 5, to get her going. He merely says something like “your doll doesn’t have blond hair” knowing full well it’s not true. And she knows its not true either, but it doesn’t matter, because it always ends up with her crying and whining about how her brother told her, “blah blah blah.”
That’s exactly what Dan Connelly with the Baltimore Sun is doing to a good portion of the fans on this blog.
I blame two things wrong with attendance :
1- The organization turning the ‘park in to looney-tunes-land, which I think they have righted the ship.
2 – The awful location, and lack of SAFE public transit.
“lemke’s knuckler, your 7 year old sounds like a real meanie head.”
He’s a good kid. And he’s sweet as can be to my other daughter who is 2. For some reason, just loves to the torture the other one. From what I hear, this is pretty standard stuff.
bigwheel, 1- The organization turning the ‘park in to looney-tunes-land, which I think they have righted the ship.
2 – The awful location, and lack of SAFE public transit.
i agree with #2, but i think you are wrong on #1. i think those attractions are actually good for turner field, and make it one of the more underrated MLB parks. i assume you really mean tooner field, which is small and doesnt take up that much space. im not sure why folks have a problem with that. but sky field is great, all the little things under the tunnels, games and what not are really nice to have, and the food and stuff is pretty good too.
Bigwheel: I disagree with both of your assertions.
I’ve never heard one Braves fan say they won’t go to Turner because of the kids’ entertainment.
And the location is the same as the 3+ million days.
Attendance is down for many reasons. A) Economy (B) Lower payroll. (C) A product lacking in excitement.
The latter has been a problem for awhile now. The Braves just don’t have a guy that excites the masses. Adding Bourn will pep things up over a full 162 game schedule. But more is needed.
I noticed on mlbtr that the Orioles want Hanson to be able to get Adam Jones. I would rather do that than Jurrgens. Seems there are questions on Hanson and the O’s are interested in Hanson.
Problem is, September IS standing. I have unused playoff tickets that PROVE it is standing.
The Braves weren’t mediocre in September, they were epically horrible. As of now they have what could be the worst defensive infield in baseball, nothing but question marks in the starting rotation, more questions in the outfield and behind the plate (McCann’s health has not been established), and NO proven shortstop. The rest of the Division (Mets aside) is already better or opening the checkbook to get better.
For this team to compete for a wild card (1) the starting pitching must materialize, (2) they have to plug holes at short and in left field with difference-makers, (3) key players must stay healthy, and (4) the Marlins and Nats must continue to struggle. None of these things are very likely in 2012. Remember, they couldn’t win with Hudson, Beachy, and Minor in September 2011. Will Hansen come back strong? Will JJ be here and in good health? Can any of the kids break in and get past the fifth inning consistently? Lots of ifs, far too many.
Despite the Yankees constant $200+ mil payroll, they have only won 1 WS since 2001. Therefore, even if the Braves increased payroll to $110 mil, there is no guarantee that they would win anything.
Also, increasing payroll does not mean an increase in attendance. The Hawks have been willing to spend money the last 2 years (top 10 payroll), but the attendance is still middle of the pack, and the results on the court are not what they should be.
DAP: I understand what you mean, it’s an experience. Really good for small kids and everything. I just didn’t like how it was integrated in to the game itself. For example, I think we brought an organist back a couple of years ago which added true originality to the game, I thought.. Before that, It was downright miserable listening to the sound affects integrated. It was like you said, TOONER FIELD.
4,717 comments Add your comment
abwright
January 3rd, 2012
11:16 am
Why is $60M/5 yrs too rich for the Braves? They should have the payroll coming off the books in 2013 to afford that.
I don’t know that Bourn is worth that. But, I don’t think the Braves couldn’t afford that.
DAP
January 3rd, 2012
11:16 am
nolie If he has another year like that he might stay affordable but who wants that from a leadoff hitter?
either way, ill take his defense in center. all i ask is that he keep his OBP in the .340s. if he does that, he will be a fine leadoff hitter.
Coach (2012 Fredi's beisbol fandango)
January 3rd, 2012
11:16 am
Nope, Theriot’s an infielder. Plays SS and 2B. Keppinger’s a true utility player. Plays SS, 2B, 3B and the outfield.
raleighbravefan
January 3rd, 2012
11:17 am
Ray @11:11 – Agree completely….We could do a LOT worse if team is sold. We were spoiled by the good Ted Turner (after he hired Bobby Cox as GM)…but Ted has left the building…and like Elvis, he isn’t coming back.
Efrim
January 3rd, 2012
11:17 am
If the Braves end up keeping Jurrjens, Prado, EOF and Chipper gets that 123 game mark and wants to play in 2013 – that $40 million evaporates to like $15 million pretty quickly.
Of course, I give it a 1% chance of all that happening based on the pitching depth we have for starters and relievers.
DawgDad
January 3rd, 2012
11:18 am
The Braves roster right now is a mess and it doesn’t figure to be sorted out for any kind of run in 2012. Chipper and Uggla are vastly overpaid defensive liabilities providing terribly inconsistent offensive support (Uggla by nature, Jones by virtue of not playing), there is no shortstop, the catcher is beat up physically, the outfield is sorely lacking of power and production, and the starting pitching is either recovering from injury/surgery or trying to figure out how to get out of the fifth inning. With the competition in the East on the upswing the Braves could be facing more months akin to September 2011.
Coach (2012 Fredi's beisbol fandango)
January 3rd, 2012
11:18 am
Boras will get more than five years and 60 million for Bourn, and you can bet on it.
tmc
January 3rd, 2012
11:18 am
DON’T DEAL PRADO!
don’t do it.
DAP
January 3rd, 2012
11:19 am
efrim I think it’s a stretch to see Bourn re-signed here. I don’t think the Braves will overpay for him, even if they do have $40 million to spend next offseason.
so, who are they going to overpay? victorino? upton? maybe angel pagan? or will they overpay in prospects for austin jackson or chris young?
no CFer for 2013, and we will have to get one. with some $$$ available, where else are we going to spend it?
nolie
January 3rd, 2012
11:19 am
ih he gets that OBP back up in the 340-350 range he will bring more than the Braves will be willing to pay I bet
VaBravesFan
January 3rd, 2012
11:19 am
Coach
I was comparing them on defense at Shortstop. I still think Wilson Betemit would be the best fit from the free agent market.
RC
January 3rd, 2012
11:21 am
RC, yes I do because I said SIMILAR. not exactly what Crawford received but still to rich for the Braves. Does Scott Boras ring a bell???? He’s gonna get top dollar for Bourn.
I’ve no doubt that Boras will get top dollar for Bourn, and I agree that it’s really unlikely that the Braves will be the team to pay that top dollar. However, I do disagree that his contract will be “similar” to Crawford’s, which was for 7-years and $142 million. I think that even at the most aggressive prediction it’s unlikely that Bourn tops 5-years, $85 million. A $60 million difference is not what I would call “similar”.
Efrim
January 3rd, 2012
11:22 am
I don’t know that Bourn is worth that. But, I don’t think the Braves couldn’t afford that.
I think what people are forgetting is that Wren isn’t going to go into next offseason thinking we have $40 million to spend on contracts. They have four first year arbitration eligible players for 2013 in Heyward, Hanson, Venters and Medlen(not counting C-Mart). In 2014, Freeman, Beachy, and Kimbrel will then be arb. eligble for the first time. Long term contract extensions for a guy like McCann will come into play and if Heyward/Freeman progress, Wren may want to lock them up. So I don’t believe Wren will blow all of the dollars on free agents. Arbitration raises will have to be paid for.
nolie
January 3rd, 2012
11:22 am
the Braves are not free agent addicts and they seldom spend lavishly even if they can afford to.
I think they will continue to loo for some kinda deal for a young CFer.
David O'Brien
January 3rd, 2012
11:22 am
For folks complaining about payroll, it seems that the Braves got their run going in ‘91 with a very cheap team, picked up some payroll to finally win the WS, and then declined back to mid market figures. — abwright
I can only assume you weren’t following the Braves in the ’90s. Beginning in ‘93 and for the next decade, the Braves consistently ranked among the top five major league payrolls and were often in the top three. In ‘94 they had the highest payroll in the majors, about $49 million (the Yankees were second at $46 mill).
The Braves had a payroll of $84 million in 2000, only about $5 mill below last year’s (and probably this year’s) payroll. The Yankees ($93 mill) and Dodgers ($88 mill) were the only teams with higher payrolls in 2000. The Braves slipped to seventh in payroll by 2002 at approx $93 mill, still higher than their payroll would be nearly a decade later.
The Braves jumped back up to third in payroll in 2003 at $106 million, trailing only the New York teams, the Yankees ($153 mill) and Mets ($117 mill). Atlanta’s 2.4 million home attendance that year was about 1 million below the Yankees’ attendance, even as the Braves were winning the 12th of their 14 consecutive division titles.
It was the next year, 2004, when the Braves began to slash payroll, cutting more than $15 million in one year. Ted Turner, their former sugar daddy of an owner, was out of the picture and the Braves under Time Warner ownership went a different direction, looking to remain competitive but also make a profit, or certainly at least not lose money. Attendance had slipped to 2.4 mill in ‘03, which ranked 12th in the majors at a time when the Braves were still winning division titles every year and playing in a nice ballpark that was only seven years old. The Braves had the third-highest payroll in baseball ($103 mill) and a perennial division-title winner, yet ranked 12th in attendance.
The payroll dropped to $90 million in ‘04 and $86 mill in ‘05, and has hovered around that area ever since — about 40 percent of what the Yankees have been spending annually for the past eight years. The Yankees have had payrolls of around $200 million going back to 2004. Liberty Media has owned the Braves since 2007, and Braves CEO Terry McGuirk says they leave it up to him to run the business and set a payroll.
The Braves choose not to disclose what their payroll is and speak only in broad terms of the direction their payroll is headed. They said they expected it to be the same or slightly higher in ‘12 than it was in ‘11, but what exactly was it in ‘11? Depending upon accounting methods and when the figure was calculated — Opening Day, midseason, end of season, overall expenditures — the Braves payroll in ‘11 was anywhere from the $87 mill that Baseball Reference lists to the approx $89 mill that some others have calculated.
Baseball Reference ranked the Braves 15th in payroll and 14th in home attendance at 2.37 million. Six teams had payrolls in excess of $125 million in 2011, and five of those six teams drew more than 3 million in home attendance.
In the Braves’ first four seasons at Turner Field 1997-2000, they ranked in the top 20 percent in baseball in both attendance and payroll, drawing more than 3 million fans annually. But that balance shifted in 2001, when attendance began to slide. It took a few more years before team officials and/or ownership clearly — at least it seems that way to me — made a decision to get that balance back by reducing payroll commensurate with the decline in attendance.
raleighbravefan
January 3rd, 2012
11:24 am
dap01 – Oh, I didn’t miss the first sentence…but you missed where I said we didn’t need a magic rabbit to be competitive this year. Most knowledgeble, unbiased analysts, managers, players, owners, etc consider Wren a very good to excellent GM.
September not withstanding, we have a very good core of players, and one of the top 2-3 pitching staffs in MLB top to bottom…maybe the best bullpen. Why would Wren make a dumb move (as called for by many fans) just to make a move. Most of the suggested moves don’t improve this team long term…in fact, many make no sense at all. When the right opportunity comes along, he will act (within the restraints he is required to meet).
Efrim
January 3rd, 2012
11:25 am
where else are we going to spend it?
Maybe he makes a trade for a CF. Who knows? You heard from DOB that they were looking for a CF prospect who could potentially fill in for CF when Bourn leaves……(even though I wouldn’t think in those terms). Plenty of time to figure it out. Just because the team has money doesn’t mean they HAVE to overpay SOMEONE.
JRW
January 3rd, 2012
11:25 am
VaBravesFan – If that is the Nats lineup next year with Strasburg, Gonalez, Hernandez and Lannan pitching, that will be a pretty formidable team.
Efrim
January 3rd, 2012
11:27 am
the Braves are not free agent addicts and they seldom spend lavishly even if they can afford to.
Exactly. Never been big on it. Not saying they won’t grab one free agent. But it’s certainly possible that they make a trade for a guy making some money like they did for Vazquez after the 2008 season.
Coach (2012 Fredi's beisbol fandango)
January 3rd, 2012
11:28 am
Boras will get six to seven years and anywhere from 12 to 14 million per season. Add it up anyway you want, Bourn is gone.
Arkansas Transplant
January 3rd, 2012
11:28 am
DAP, that’s why I wouldn’t be against a trade with Detroit for Austin Jackson.. at least that way we won’t have to be thinking about CF for the forseeable future plus netting us a very good return. And then if we want to look at adding Seth Smith and prospects, it could only deepen our pool of players. I think if we made those 2 moves it would definitely set this club up for a very long and bright future.
VaBravesFan
January 3rd, 2012
11:30 am
Well I’m out folks, have a good day.
PMC
January 3rd, 2012
11:33 am
I ultimately don’t care about payroll. I care about whether or not I believe the team is putting a team that can win on the field.
I don’t care if they build through the draft and or the minors or with trades or procuring players.
Just don’t tell me that you feel they can win when you’re trying to procure no named corner outfielders because they are only owed about 3 million dollars next year.
You can’t expect people to buy into a team when so much of the lineup is dependant on a player who was in his prime in 1999.
abwright
January 3rd, 2012
11:35 am
DOB … thanks for the actual numbers on payroll. But, that’s essentially what I was saying.
Cheap team in the early 90’s (90-93), expensive team for about a decade (94-04, including 95 WS and 96&99 WS appearances), back to mid market numbers up to the present (05-12).
Obviously, if you want to drill back to the 70s, Braves had been a cheap team leading up to the 91 break-out.
And yes, I followed the team a lot closer from about 78-86 then I did from 87-00. Poverty sucks.
PMC
January 3rd, 2012
11:36 am
I think Wren has been excellent in navigating the environment and keeping the Braves mostly competitive….
But they CANNOT win a championship as constructed. Not without massive luck and a lot of help.
This team is not capable of hitting with the best teams.
DAP
January 3rd, 2012
11:36 am
dawgdad The Braves roster right now is a mess
thats a little strong isnt it?
i mean, we have the best hitting catcher in baseball. a ROY runner up at first, one of the few legit 30 HR threats in baseball at 2nd, the majors leading basestealer and defender in center, and loads of potential in RF. we have the best bullpen in baseball, and a young talented rotation that is 7 or 8 pitchers deep.
throw in a HOF 3rd baseman that is still better than league average, a .300 hitting, .800 OPS LFer, and a rookie SS coming off a great minor league year, and we have a good team.
raleighbravefan
January 3rd, 2012
11:37 am
PMC – I DO believe they can..and will…win. No one can guarantee a WS, but I fully expect them to be competitive.
If I were as bitter and negative and disappointed about a team as some of you, I would find a team that I feel good about supporting. It’s called riding the bandwagon.
Ray
January 3rd, 2012
11:37 am
PMC I agree completely. I have said a number of times, the payroll is not our issue. I don’t care what they do providing they don’t slash down to the Pirates level. IF it was simply payroll the Yankees and Phils, Mets and Redsox would be going back and forth every year in the WS. Does a high payroll help, of course it does. Does it guarantee anything, absolutely not.
raleighbravefan
January 3rd, 2012
11:39 am
DAP – Don’t you know you aren’t supposed to say good things here. Optimism is forbidden.
space monkey
January 3rd, 2012
11:46 am
Why on Earth are we dead set toward trading Prado for Seth Smith. Prado is twice the player that Seth Smith is. He’s a better hitter and more versatile, what a stupid trade.
Efrim
January 3rd, 2012
11:46 am
January 3, 2012
Future Shock
Miami Marlins Top 11 Prospects
by Kevin Goldstein
System In 20 Words Or Less: The system finds some depth and star power in Yelich, but there is still an overall lack of elite-level talent.
Five-Star Prospects
1. Christian Yelich, OF
Four-Star Prospects
2. Jose Fernandez, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
3. Marcell Ozuna, OF
4. J.T. Realmuto, C
5. Chad James, LHP
6. Matt Dominguez, 3B
7. Jesus Solorzano, OF
8. Jose Ceda, RHP
9. Jose Urena, RHP
10. Rob Rasmussen, LHP
11. Noah Perio, 2B
Awful system.
Lew
January 3rd, 2012
11:48 am
raleighbraves – Optimism? Don’t you mean Blind Homerism?
Nice Work, If You Can Get It!
January 3rd, 2012
11:49 am
Could anyone imagine the horror of Chipper Jones and exercising an option for millions in 2013?
The stuff nightmares are made of!
Boobie Cox
January 3rd, 2012
11:50 am
I picked mini me fredi to lead us to 3rd and 4th place finishes for 3 or 4 more years. We will miss the playoffs again next year. I’m sure glad the cameras dont catch me picking my boogers anymore. Now turn off that rap music and give me some tissue.
Efrim
January 3rd, 2012
11:50 am
That’s probably unfair. The Marlins don’t have an awful system, but it is probably back third.
Efrim
January 3rd, 2012
11:51 am
Could anyone imagine the horror of Chipper Jones and exercising an option for millions in 2013?
I think he gets there. Not sure if he’ll want to play in 2013 at age 41, though. But I think he gets to 123 games played this year.
Don
January 3rd, 2012
11:52 am
Odds are at least reasonable that Prado will have a better year next season than Smith. In 2010, Prodo was pehaps the best hitter the Braves had – good BA, good OBA, and great clutch hitter.
Odds are that he will return to form in 2012 after getting past his 2011 injury. There is a signigicat progability that the Braves are going to make a huge mistake and trade him for a player who will not be nearly as productive as Prado.
Nice Work, If You Can Get It!
January 3rd, 2012
11:55 am
Chipper’s Option
# 2013 option guaranteed at $9M with:
* 123 games in 2012, or
* average of 127 games in 2011-12
# 2013 option price increases by $1M each for:
* 128, 133, 138, 140 games in 2012, or
* averages of 132, 137, 138, 140 games in 2011-12
# annual performance bonuses: $0.75M each for 135, 140 games
DAP
January 3rd, 2012
11:56 am
space monkey Why on Earth are we dead set toward trading Prado for Seth Smith
if we were dead set on it, i think it would have happened.
TommyP
January 3rd, 2012
12:00 pm
A few random thoughts….
I was wondering just the other day about what DOB’s topic would be for the new blog. I mean, NOTHING is happening involving the Braves. Good job, DOB, with coming up with something worth reading despite having zero material to work with.
Mr. Porter needs Spring Training to get here ASAP. He needs his career and the boys to cushion this horrible blow. God bless him and his family.
Great Prince reference(s). Finally, music I can relate to.
One suggestion for the added lyrics at the bottom of the blog. Include a Youtube link of the song below the lyrics for those of us that have no idea about the song. I’ve never understood including song lyrics in the first place but if there was a link to hear the song, would make more sense. Just a suggestion….
Fielder to Washington would be huge (literally) for the Nats. Find a taker for LaRoche and add another arm in the system and they should be done shopping.
Braves? I imagine Betemit is not a guy they want ’cause of his horrible defense at 3B. Same goes with Theriot at SS. We’ll get our SS in March, people. It’s the LF we should be anticipating.
I’m excited to see Bourn over a full season. I do like the “athletic” concept the Braves are moving towards. Big time. Add athletes that can play defense and we’ll be fine.
Don
January 3rd, 2012
12:01 pm
Has baseball changed significantly, and Pitching is no longer very important??? Apparently it has – for no one seems to be worried about the Starting Pitching for the Braves. AFTER ALL – Only FOUR of their five Starters are coming off injuries. And everyone knows that an injured pitcher always comes back and is great once again. The Braves do have a wealth of ADDITIONAL young Piitching talent — AND OF COURSE, the fact that – of all the large number of Starting Pitchers that the Braves have had in the 6 or 7 years since Leo left as the Pitching Coach, almost every one of them has become injured. – So why would anyone think that these young pitchers coming on will be injured?????
richbrave
January 3rd, 2012
12:05 pm
I see FRANK’s hangin’ tuff on his ideas regarding beneficial trades for the BRAVES. Good on ye WREN.
David O'Brien
January 3rd, 2012
12:08 pm
Just added this last graph to my previous comment on payroll: In the Braves’ first four seasons at Turner Field 1997-2000, they ranked in the top 20 percent in baseball in both attendance and payroll, drawing more than 3 million fans annually. But that balance shifted in 2001, when attendance began to slide. It took a few more years before team officials and/or ownership clearly — at least it seems that way to me — made a decision to get that balance back by reducing payroll commensurate with the decline in attendance.
Efrim
January 3rd, 2012
12:08 pm
JimBowdenESPNxmJIM BOWDEN
The best free agents left on the market: 1. Fielder 1B 2. Cespedes CF 3. Madson CL 4. Oswalt 5. Kuroda 6. Jackson 7. Pena 1B 8. Cordero
Been that order of free agents for way too long. Need a few more pieces of wood to fuel that Hot Stove season fire.
DogsBrekky
January 3rd, 2012
12:08 pm
I will take Prado over Seth anyday and twice on Tuesday, being today is Tuesday, let’s keep Marteeeen
My Oblique is Killin' Me!
January 3rd, 2012
12:10 pm
“Has baseball changed significantly, and Pitching is no longer very important???
Phils had the best starting rotation in baseball last year and didn’t get past the first round. IT takes offense and situational hitting as well. Something the Braves didn’t seem to do very well last year.
As for the number of arm problems with the Braves pitching staff over the last few years, yeah, kinda freaky huh?
richbrave
January 3rd, 2012
12:13 pm
So what do i make of Mike BOURN and Jair JURRJENS to the O’s for Adam JONES and one of their better LHSP minor’s prospects, Jake PETTIT? Another rumor?
Lemke's Knuckler
January 3rd, 2012
12:13 pm
“As for the number of arm problems with the Braves pitching staff over the last few years, yeah, kinda freaky huh?”
I predict a comment from Don shortly…
abwright
January 3rd, 2012
12:15 pm
“It took a few more years before team officials … made a decision to get that balance back by reducing payroll commensurate with the decline in attendance.”
We’ve already had Don chime in with his doom and gloom on the Braves pitching. Now, cue the folks who want to complain about attendance!
BTW … I’m assuming that TV revenues have also declined (the final end of the TNT monopoly on national day-to-day TV broadcast) for the Braves in addition to attendance. Better raise those ticket prices!
Mets Fever :: Braves not so interested in Theriot | TechRetriever
January 3rd, 2012
12:16 pm
[...] I’m going to say the Braves’ interest in Theriot was overstated, based on what I’ve gathered in the past few days. I’ll stop short of saying it was inaccurate, since it’s no fun explaining why a team suddenly makes a move that you (meaning me) had just said or indicated they would not make. Source ajc.com [...]
richbrave
January 3rd, 2012
12:16 pm
“……….But that balance shifted in 2001, when attendance began to slide. It took a few more years before team officials and/or ownership clearly — at least it seems that way to me — made a decision to get that balance back by reducing payroll commensurate with the decline in attendance………..” DOB
I’m sure you’re correct, but won’t that ‘chicken or egg’ approach take us all the way to PITTSBURGH?
Lemke's Knuckler
January 3rd, 2012
12:17 pm
“I’m sure you’re correct, but won’t that ‘chicken or egg’ approach take us all the way to PITTSBURGH?”
Depends on who blinks first.
David O'Brien
January 3rd, 2012
12:18 pm
One suggestion for the added lyrics at the bottom of the blog. Include a Youtube link of the song below the lyrics for those of us that have no idea about the song. I’ve never understood including song lyrics in the first place but if there was a link to hear the song, would make more sense. Just a suggestion…. — TommyP
There’s a link to a recording or video of the song BEFORE the lyrics, in the paragraph where I introduce the song. Has been for quite a while now, Tommy. For years, in fact. Done that way so you could, theoretically, hit the link, play the song and follow the lyrics. Makes more sense than putting the link to the song AFTER the lyrics, don’t ya think? Of course, you’d have to have the blog up on a separate screen after clicking the song link in order to follow along on the lyrics. But that’s not difficult if a person wants to have the lyrics while listening to the tune.
If I did it the way you suggested, fewer people are going to see the link because a lot of folks have no interest in reading the song lyrics.
abwright
January 3rd, 2012
12:18 pm
“As for the number of arm problems with the Braves pitching staff over the last few years, yeah, kinda freaky huh?”
Has any rotation made it through the full MLB season without at least one pitcher having an arm problem? In the history of baseball?
I’m surprised that pitchers aren’t going ahead and getting TJ surgery before they start a professional career, rather than waiting until the career is underway.
You can tell a scribe by the callus on his index finger and thumb. You can tell a pitcher by the scar on his pitching elbow.
richbrave
January 3rd, 2012
12:19 pm
DAVE:
Am I wrong is assuming that during a poor economy, an improved product on the field will have to come before significant attendance increases?
My Oblique is Killin' Me!
January 3rd, 2012
12:20 pm
richbrave
Not even a rumor. Just an earlier discussion here. The Adam Jones and JJ part have been written about by the media, but nothing about Bourn.
abwright
January 3rd, 2012
12:25 pm
“… won’t that ‘chicken or egg’ approach take us all the way to PITTSBURGH?”
If revenues are strongly correlated to attendance, then
a. a low attendance team will become a low payroll team or
b. a team will have to do something to boost attendance.
I’m actually amazed that Montreal and Florida stayed in business as long as they did (obviously Montreal moved to Washington and Florida moved to a new stadium in Miami).
David O'Brien
January 3rd, 2012
12:27 pm
richbrave: I can’t answer that, but the Braves had a perennial division winner longer than any other city in baseball history, and attendance declined sharply in the last third of that run, presumably because fans got tired of merely seeing a team win 90-plus games and the division title every year with only occasional pennants. My guess is that sounds mighty nice about now, no?
Braves interested in Cody Ross? (Yahoo! Sports) | Local Philadelphia News Aggregator
January 3rd, 2012
12:27 pm
[...] thе Atlanta Braves hаνе ѕοmе interest іn Ross bυt “wουld want thе price tο keep coming down.” Thе word frοm thе AJC іѕ thаt Ross “wаntѕ [...]
ChattTownBrian (CTB)
January 3rd, 2012
12:30 pm
Oh wow, just turned the blog on and saw we were already on page 5, so I figured something might be going down. Nope. Same old sh**, new day. Carry on ……
Lemke's Knuckler
January 3rd, 2012
12:30 pm
“Am I wrong is assuming that during a poor economy, an improved product on the field will have to come before significant attendance increases?”
I think the problem is more complex than that. The people making the financial decisions likely aren’t willing to invest another $20mm, in the hope that the improved product will increase attendance. The problem is, by the time an investment like that would pay off (which I think it would, but it might take a few seasons), the person(s) responsible for making those decisions would be fired for the short-term losses accrued in the meantime. So in a down economy, you have to keep in mind that the people making those decisions are not willing to take on the risk associated much for the same reasons that we are less likely to buy tickets. It’s a different scale, but similar concept.
BravoMan
January 3rd, 2012
12:32 pm
From mlbtraderumors-
“The Orioles are fairly confident they will add another outfielder, though that wouldn’t necessarily portend an Adam Jones trade. The Orioles were not overly intrigued by the Braves’ offer of Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado, and a minor league pitcher. Connolly doesn’t see Jurrjens as a centerpiece for a Jones trade. Instead, the Orioles are intrigued by Tommy Hanson.”
lol
Efrim
January 3rd, 2012
12:33 pm
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bal-orioles-insider-closer-look-at-adam-jones-and-the-trade-dilemma-20120103,0,4805147.story
Dan Connelly writes for the Baltimore Sun….
But the Orioles weren’t overly intrigued by that package and reportedly wanted two of the Braves’ top pitching prospects in addition to Prado and Jurrjens, and the Braves understandably balked. Not sure if that is 100 percent true, but something made those talks lose traction.
Here’s what I know: The Orioles want a frontline starter for Jones. Or someone with the substantial upside to be a frontline starter. A name that intrigues the Orioles – heck, that intrigues everyone in baseball – is the Braves’ 25-year-old right-hander Tommy Hanson.
He dealt with some shoulder/back problems last year but is one of the best young pitchers in the game. That’s also the reason the Braves likely wouldn’t move him, for Jones or likely anyone else. If Hanson is obtainable, though, so is Jones. Regardless, Atlanta has plenty of good young pitching, so they remain an obvious trade partner. But I’d be surprised if Jurrjens was the centerpiece.
Right. Tommy Hanson for Adam Jones. Not to mention it’s really 4 years of Tommy Hanson for 2 years of Adam Jones. I’m sorry, but the O’s would have to add Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop for me to even consider it based on what starters with 4 years of control have netted this year. And Hanson isn’t going anywhere based on the shoulder injury.
Charles
January 3rd, 2012
12:35 pm
How will Seth Smith do in ATL when away from the confines of Coors Field where by far his best numbers have been generated? I agree that the trade possibilities don’t really help the Braves and I am very concerned Pastornicky will be a defensive disaster (9 errors in 27 games at AAA vs 12 errors by Gonzo for 149 games). So we need to keep Prado as he is our most flexible infielder. If we have to deal, deal Jurgens, but it might be better to wait until the summer to see how the rest of the rotation shakes out and that’s about the time his knee starts to buckle, as it has for the prior years.
DOB, Theriot may not be much defensively, but have you compared him to Pastornicky’s minor league fielding history? In my view, the most pressing need now is a capable shortstop if Tyler can’t catch the ball and/or fails to hit and run as advertised. I think the Braves can make offensive improvements with better years from Prado, Heyward and McCann, not with an outfielder who has lived off the Coors Field launching pad.
Lemke's Knuckler
January 3rd, 2012
12:35 pm
And I don’t think Atlanta is one of those markets where you can easily justify that spending another $20mm on payroll would result in a net increase in profits. If the transit were better, maybe. But that’s a different argument.
Ray
January 3rd, 2012
12:36 pm
DOB, very good point. I have always had the mindset, I would rather make it and lose than not make the playoffs at all. If you make it, you always have a chance,ALWAYS. Many on here are concerned about the Nat’s and the Marlins passing the Braves. You make it enough times to the playoffs, sooner or later you will pull out a WS championship.
Efrim
January 3rd, 2012
12:37 pm
And I don’t believe Jurrjens and Prado make sense for Jones because they should be getting 0-3 players for Jones. At least 2-3 players with lots of control. Prado and Jurrjens don’t fit that description.
TommyP
January 3rd, 2012
12:38 pm
I’ve never seen the link before but that shows you how quickly I pass the lyrics by…
I clicked on it and…..well, it proves anyone can make money singing. I would’ve thought that was a joke if I didn’t hear you raving about the guy so much. But….obviously he has his fans. I know this will offend some so I’ll just leave it at that.
Lee in S GA
January 3rd, 2012
12:39 pm
Don, do you ever talk about anything except about Braves pitching injuries! ….Anything…Anything at all.
My Oblique is Killin' Me!
January 3rd, 2012
12:39 pm
I don’t see the O’s wanting a piece in a trade who has an existing shoulder problem and funky, mechanically flawed delivery, past results be damned!
TaylorsBravo
January 3rd, 2012
12:39 pm
I don’t get this–the Braves need a right-handed power bat, and they are thinking of giving up Prado (a popular right-handed hitter) for a left-handed hitter who has very similar stats? They are already have an over-balance of left-handed hitting. This makes no sense at all.
TommyP
January 3rd, 2012
12:40 pm
That Orioles columnist doesn’t seem to deal well in reality.
DAP
January 3rd, 2012
12:41 pm
abwright If revenues are strongly correlated to attendance, then
a. a low attendance team will become a low payroll team or
b. a team will have to do something to boost attendance.
y’all do realize that the braves dont really have a problem with attendance, right? they also dont really have a problem with payroll.
neither is as high as it could be, but both are alot better than what many franchises have.
Efrim
January 3rd, 2012
12:42 pm
Ben_DuronioBen Duronio
It wouldn’t be outlandish to trade Hanson instead of Jurrjens. Would make 2012 team worse though, unless MLB talent is acquired for Tommy.
I would never do Hanson for Jones though.
Again, comments made by people who think Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado walk on water. Beachy and Minor too.
BravePack
January 3rd, 2012
12:42 pm
DOB
Someone from last night asked a question about the Braves getting new unis this year. I thought you mentioned it was just another jersey to add to the 4 already. Can you please confirm that or are the Braves getting new jerseys?
David O'Brien
January 3rd, 2012
12:42 pm
Yeah, TommyP, he’s got one or two fans.
Trust me, nothing you could say about the great Mr. Waits is going to offend any of his hardcore fans. He’s beyond that in our view. Sort of like those who criticize Dylan’s voice and say they “don’t get” the appeal. That’s fine — they don’t get it. No worries. Different tastes. Some see true musical genius, others just see some hobo-looking guy with boozy, gravelly voice (Waits).
Juan
January 3rd, 2012
12:44 pm
DOB: with the tragedy of Bubba Wife i just want to add also the Pass off Jim Huber, cnn sport also i think he work sometime with the AJC
David O'Brien
January 3rd, 2012
12:45 pm
Lemke’s Knuckler: Well said at 12:30 and 12:35.
TommyP
January 3rd, 2012
12:46 pm
No doubt he has fans.
And your summary was perfect with Dylan and not getting it. That’s how music is, though. Different people hear different things. Pretty weird, honestly.
On another note, has Omar Vizquel ever been discussed by the Braves? And am I right in assuming that mid-March or later is when we get that SS?
D man
January 3rd, 2012
12:48 pm
This trade makes no sense. Prado is our best offensive player and JJ is our best young pitcher. Are we trying to become Kansas City???
David O'Brien
January 3rd, 2012
12:49 pm
BravePack: Braves are getting an alternate uniform. They’re being secretive about it, expected to announce soon. Not sure if it’s to be worn any particular days, but was told late last season it’d be an alternate uniform. Hopefully it’s the off-white throwback uni with the Indian logo that they wore last year at Dodger Stadium. That was a great look.
David O'Brien
January 3rd, 2012
12:51 pm
Omar Vizquel’s not considered an option for the utility infield/backup shortstop job the Braves are trying to fill. Too old. With Vizquel, you’d have days where the left side of your infield would be 40 and 45. That ain’t happening.
Ray
January 3rd, 2012
12:52 pm
We may be getting to the point of the problem this winter. Where Wren is talking about JJ, many teams may be wanting TH instead. And at that point I am sure Wren is hanging up the phone. It does take a sane person on the other end to pull off a solid trade.
Bart
January 3rd, 2012
12:52 pm
So the smaller the attendence, the smaller the payroll and then the smaller the paroll, the smaller the attendence….until you have a team looking for a new owner who is willing to invest and spend in order to try to build a better team and draw more people. However, it seems that Atlanta is similar to where I am (Central Fl)in that the local fans become bored or complacent with the product no matter what it is. Other wise how can you explain the having of good teams that actually make the playoffs only to not even sell the playoff games out. I kind of get it down here. Our population is mostly from people from all different areas but mainly the Northeast US. So when the Yankees, Phillies and Red Sox come to Tampa the attendance is good. Outside that??? …just so so at best. But what about The Atl? After SO many ugly years in the 70’s and 80’s, you’d think that the population would very excited about a good, competitive product. …enough bable from me.
DAP
January 3rd, 2012
12:52 pm
DOB Different tastes. Some see true musical genius, others see some hobo-looking guy with boozy, gravelly voice
same difference? :- )
Lemke's Knuckler
January 3rd, 2012
12:54 pm
With all these Orioles rumors, you guys remind me of my kids. Example.
My son, who is 7, knows all he has to do is say something to his younger sister, who is 5, to get her going. He merely says something like “your doll doesn’t have blond hair” knowing full well it’s not true. And she knows its not true either, but it doesn’t matter, because it always ends up with her crying and whining about how her brother told her, “blah blah blah.”
That’s exactly what Dan Connelly with the Baltimore Sun is doing to a good portion of the fans on this blog.
DAP
January 3rd, 2012
12:56 pm
lemke’s knuckler, your 7 year old sounds like a real meanie head.
Bigwheel
January 3rd, 2012
12:58 pm
I blame two things wrong with attendance :
1- The organization turning the ‘park in to looney-tunes-land, which I think they have righted the ship.
2 – The awful location, and lack of SAFE public transit.
Lemke's Knuckler
January 3rd, 2012
1:02 pm
“lemke’s knuckler, your 7 year old sounds like a real meanie head.”
He’s a good kid. And he’s sweet as can be to my other daughter who is 2. For some reason, just loves to the torture the other one. From what I hear, this is pretty standard stuff.
David O'Brien
January 3rd, 2012
1:02 pm
DOB Different tastes. Some see true musical genius, others see some hobo-looking guy with boozy, gravelly voice
same difference? :- ) — DAP
Actually, yes. Good point.
Gary O
January 3rd, 2012
1:02 pm
As bad as the Braves have struggled against Washington, I hope Fielder takes his talent elsewhere.
DAP
January 3rd, 2012
1:03 pm
bigwheel, 1- The organization turning the ‘park in to looney-tunes-land, which I think they have righted the ship.
2 – The awful location, and lack of SAFE public transit.
i agree with #2, but i think you are wrong on #1. i think those attractions are actually good for turner field, and make it one of the more underrated MLB parks. i assume you really mean tooner field, which is small and doesnt take up that much space. im not sure why folks have a problem with that. but sky field is great, all the little things under the tunnels, games and what not are really nice to have, and the food and stuff is pretty good too.
Bat Masterson
January 3rd, 2012
1:04 pm
Dan Connelly writes for the Baltimore Sun….
Must be an aspiring fiction writer, look out Michael
Done
January 3rd, 2012
1:05 pm
The Braves will never compete again. They are all about cheap and getting rid of payroll.
TommyP
January 3rd, 2012
1:06 pm
Bigwheel: I disagree with both of your assertions.
I’ve never heard one Braves fan say they won’t go to Turner because of the kids’ entertainment.
And the location is the same as the 3+ million days.
Attendance is down for many reasons. A) Economy (B) Lower payroll. (C) A product lacking in excitement.
The latter has been a problem for awhile now. The Braves just don’t have a guy that excites the masses. Adding Bourn will pep things up over a full 162 game schedule. But more is needed.
Art
January 3rd, 2012
1:06 pm
I noticed on mlbtr that the Orioles want Hanson to be able to get Adam Jones. I would rather do that than Jurrgens. Seems there are questions on Hanson and the O’s are interested in Hanson.
DawgDad
January 3rd, 2012
1:08 pm
“September not withstanding”
Problem is, September IS standing. I have unused playoff tickets that PROVE it is standing.
The Braves weren’t mediocre in September, they were epically horrible. As of now they have what could be the worst defensive infield in baseball, nothing but question marks in the starting rotation, more questions in the outfield and behind the plate (McCann’s health has not been established), and NO proven shortstop. The rest of the Division (Mets aside) is already better or opening the checkbook to get better.
For this team to compete for a wild card (1) the starting pitching must materialize, (2) they have to plug holes at short and in left field with difference-makers, (3) key players must stay healthy, and (4) the Marlins and Nats must continue to struggle. None of these things are very likely in 2012. Remember, they couldn’t win with Hudson, Beachy, and Minor in September 2011. Will Hansen come back strong? Will JJ be here and in good health? Can any of the kids break in and get past the fifth inning consistently? Lots of ifs, far too many.
Gary O
January 3rd, 2012
1:08 pm
Despite the Yankees constant $200+ mil payroll, they have only won 1 WS since 2001. Therefore, even if the Braves increased payroll to $110 mil, there is no guarantee that they would win anything.
Also, increasing payroll does not mean an increase in attendance. The Hawks have been willing to spend money the last 2 years (top 10 payroll), but the attendance is still middle of the pack, and the results on the court are not what they should be.
Ray
January 3rd, 2012
1:09 pm
@Done, Really? Never compete again. Are you willing to back that one up?
Bigwheel
January 3rd, 2012
1:09 pm
DAP: I understand what you mean, it’s an experience. Really good for small kids and everything. I just didn’t like how it was integrated in to the game itself. For example, I think we brought an organist back a couple of years ago which added true originality to the game, I thought.. Before that, It was downright miserable listening to the sound affects integrated. It was like you said, TOONER FIELD.