I would add that no set of visualization or stats can determine probability if either or both contain a small sample size.
One complements the other…….visualization over time while building stats is the most solid way to determine probability.
That’s why when asked what I think of an individual BRAVES prospect, I always add a caveat if I haven’t been able to include both into my personal evaluation.
This necessity is what makes DOB’s work so invaluable. He sees a lot of baseball, and not exclusively BRAVES baseball, is constantly digging into and upgrading data on individual BRAVES while all the while having eyes and ears inside the clubhouse.
Even though WREN has become quite circumspect regarding information, DAVID’s must be the best data available here on the BRAVES in the vast majority of BRAVES machinations.
hate to see anyone get cut, but how can anyone cry over conrad the cannot play defense period he single handedly knocked us out of playoffs 2 years ago
The Braves starting lineup is too left handed. The whole point of upgrading left field with a right handed or switch hitting “thumper” is to make the lineup more balanced and less vulnerable to LHP. In that respect, replacing Prado with Adam Jones is kind of a lateral move. Last season Adam Jones had a .665 OPS vs. LHP and Prado had a .673 OPS vs. LHP. Does trading for Adam Jones really make the team that much better, and at what cost?
THAT is why I particularly pointed out why I would trade JJ for prospects from Cincy and go after either Cuddyer or Beltran….
In 2011, Cuddyer OPSed .993, yes .993 against LHP and Beltran OPSed .923
Either would be a major step up in the middle of the lineup for what usually goes on v LHP.
It is AMAZING – that everyone is assuming that the Braves’ Pitching is going to be great.
WAKE UP – FOUR of our FIVE Starters are coming off INJURIES.
Many times pitchers NEVER come back and really be great after serious injuries.
And this is just a SMALL SAMPLE of the problem. Of all the Starting Pitchers that the Braves have had in the 6 or 7 years since Leo left as Pitching Coach (counting the ones who have been in the roatation a reasonable length of time) almost ALL of them have ended up being INJURED.
There is no way to have enough pitching talent to continue to overcome this. The Braves are going to have SIGNIFICANT PITCHING PROBLEMS – if not now, SOON.
hate to see anyone get cut, but how can anyone cry over conrad the cannot play defense period he single handedly knocked us out of playoffs 2 years ago
Also got the team INTO the playoffs, so I’ll call it an overall wash.
I think for what the Braves need Cody Ross would be a much better fit than A Jones. (except for $). Ross kills LH pitching, Jones actually hits RH pitching better for his career than lefties. Braves would have to trade Prado or JJ or Prospects for Jones, only need cash for C. Ross.
Braves need a 4th OFer to cover LF when Prado plays third, rest Heyward against tough lefties, cover CF to Bourn a day off and PH/late inning defense. Cody Ross fits all those better than Jones without having to give up JJ or top prospects.
Colorado Braves – Check their numbers. JOnes and Ross are esentially the same offensive players except that Jones has more power. He’ll also cost leass over the two years than Ross would and they both play all three outfield positions.
I just don’t see losing Jurrjens as that big a deal and Jpnes can do al that Ross can with Martin still here.
Honestly, though, either would work about as well, but Jurrjens in a trade would offset Jones’ salary.
I get that his career OPS v LHP is slightly over .900 but watching him in 2011 it almost looked like he was a shell of that playoff player in 2010 and is falling off the back end of his career at age 30.
Adam Jones – August 21, 2011:
.299 .337 .494 .830
Again, that’s August 21, not April 21.
Was this just a 2.5 month hot streak or did Jones figure it out. I would bet it was just a hot streak because Jones did not sustain it…. Aug 262/283/427 710OPS and Sept 222/279/397 676OPS.
i knew i may get hit a bit on conrad comments undertsand all said just very sour still on the guy and it is hard to spend a roster spot on a guy who bats 3 times a week and cannot play defense
Lew… i did check the nubers and Ross for his carre has been been over .900 OPS v LHed pitching, and JJ is a big deal. All-star starting pitching should be able to bring in better than A. Jones in a trade. Keep JJ until next off-season if Jones is the best we can do now.
I agree we need to keep Prado… and sign C Ross if possible. He is a better fit and only cost cash not JJ or prospects.
Colorado Braves – Didn’t mean to sound like that when I mentioned the numbers . Yes, Ross is better against LHP, but can we afford a Free Agent contract without trading a salary to replace it?
Actually, I’d like to see a one year option out there and go for someone much better next winter when salary is freed.
I still like the idea of getting Jones, but honestly I’m starting to fall into a bit of malaise about the team this offseason. I keep telling myself that Wren has something big up his sleeve, but the more and more I think about it the more I start to believe the biggest offseason move will be dumping Lowe and the biggest acquisition will be Ronny Cedeno.
Not horrible considering how talented the team is, but man oh man… sigh… I just miss Ted. That’s what this is all really about… I miss Ted. A lot. Sniff sniff. Lew, gimme a hug!
My housekeeper is here this morning and a little while ago she changed the TV from CNBC to some kind of talk show. I heard some woman screaming about having a relationship with one guy then, when he left her, she started having sex with his little brother. So she had a baby, she says the 16 year old kid is the father.
I had to go look, both the guys look stupid to me…… DNA test and the winner is….. the little brother.
Or is he the loser?
Maybe the baby is the loser
Wow
Now another fight about paternity….. Who are these people!? Yikes
old man If the OF metrics say Jones is better than Prado, then ya gotta think about a trade, even if you ignore your eyeballs.
they dont. OF metrics have jones as a bad CFer and prado as at least a average LFer. Maybe a little better than average. dont know how that would traslate to adam jones in LF, but since prado is a better hitter than jones, it doesnt really make sense to swap them out in LF.
Heyman’s reporting that Prince could well become a Ranger. If that’s the case … whew. That Rangers lineup with Fielder added would be frightening. A freakin’ blitzkrieg.
lew Has much the same numbers as Cody Ross, who many have wanted to fill LF this year, only with more power potential, costs less and is under contractual control for two years.
so he has the same numbers as cody ross, and we are going to trade a 25 year old all star pitcher for him? how do ytou know adam jones will cost less than cody ross? jones is projected to mkae $6.6mil in arbitration.
also, i cant speak for everybody else, but i floated cody ross as a 4th outfielder. should we trade jurrjens for a 4th outfielder? eff no.
Oh god, another one……….. This woman cheated on her guy with 8 other guys, but she is sure the ugly boyfriend is the daddy of the daughter. More DNA and lie detector test coming ……… wee ……
Well, Ive never been a huge fan of Jones myself and have explicitly mentioned that IF we’re trading JJ and Prado to Baltimore it better damn well be for Nick Markakis…
Therefore, like I said, Id rather trade JJ to Cincy for specs, keep Prado, and use the money to go after Cuddyer or Beltran w/ backloaded deals.
Either of those two players are game changers…Cody Ross is not.
murph, the season goes through september. he took a 50 OPS point dive in one month. do you know how bad you have to be to take a 50 point OPS dive in a month? please post his numbers from august 22nd on. the player you say seems to be headed in the right direction.
Cody Ross would be a pretty good option for the Braves. He’d be low risk on dollars, plays all 3 OF positions, hits LH pitching, is at the point of his career when he can not expect an everyday job on a contender, is familiar with Fredi’s managing, and would be great in the clubhouse. Seems like a perfect fit in many ways.
But, from the few reports we can find about what the Braves are trying to do (not a knock on DOB, but Wren puts a lid on leaks), it looks like the Braves are trying to get a more substantial option, who can also play CF if Bourn goes Free-Agent, and are talking with Baltimore. That fits really well with the picture of the Braves pursuing a deal for Adam Jones.
I like Ross better if we are to keep Prado, which I really want. But, if we are looking more to the future, and are going to deal Prado anyway, then a deal for Adam Jones looks good.
Lew, are you scared of showing affection? I’m comfortable enough with my manliness to give another man a hug, and not a man hug where you shake hands and then hug on top of the handshake with your hands creating some sort of man-boob barrier. A real, honest to goodness hug.
Yes, Jones was in a slump in September. It happens.
Just a quick glance but it looks like Jones sucked for 24 games in March/April and for 47 games in Aug/Sept/Oct and was pretty good for 80 games in between.
I always thought that a good CFer would be better defensively than almost all LFers… then I saw McLouth in LF. He just never seemed comfortable and really didn’t do very well in LF . That’s just my limited memory though.
Murph – No – I”m afraid of being stabbed repeatedly by your three year old homicidal toddler.
DAP – Dude, Cody Ross wasn’t my suggestion – it’s been more than floated here all week long. I still want Wren to figure a way to trade for Nick Swisher. As for Jurrjens? I will not miss him and we have plenty of arms to replace him. The Kids are going to have to ear their keep sometime and they had some experience during a stretch drive last year, so let them pitch. Don’t know how much you seriously believe we’ll get in return for him anyway. He’ worth more than some believe and nowhere near what others think he’s worth.
To all fellow bloggers, called away on short notice, just wanted to say to DOB, and all of you, If I am hindered from posting until after Christmas, I want to wish each and everyone a safe, Merry, and Joyous Christmas! may your Stockings be filled with Joy, and your presents be filled with happiness! Oh! Yeah and GO BRAVES!
i know that. you were saying adam jones had similar number to cody ross, and said people here had been wanting cody ross for LF. im just giving you the differences…its not the same situation even if the numbers are similar. ross WONT cost as much as jones, ross WONT cost us a player in a trade, ross WONT be a starting outfielder, ect.
if you were suggesting a trade of jurrjens for ross, it would worry me as much as your suggestion of jurrjens for jones. both would be terrible, terrible trades.
Can we agree that neither of those guys put the Braves over the top?
If we got either no one tomorrow would be all gung ho, fan or writer, or what not, that the Braves are headed to the World Series….
Beltran and Cuddyer I would put into the (ever shrinking) category that would change the way the Braves are viewed…especially with all the LH pitching in the division, now with Buehrle added as well.
There are so many factors when comparing Prado to Jones.
For one, over the past two years, Jones has been more durable. Jones can play CF, Prado cannot.
Clearly, a forward thinking GM should look at stats and performance from years past. But might be safer looking at recent trends. Here is what each of them has done the past two seasons:
From my angle, like my first point said. About the only difference is one guy can play CF, on guy cannot. Since Wren might be looking for a backup plan in CF next year, that alone would justify having Jones over Prado.
On the flip side, you “fix” one hole, by creating another. Without Prado, there isn’t much backup plan at 3B for 2012 or beyond. But to me Prado isn’t the answer at 3B long-term anyhow, so you cross that bridge when you get to it.
The only other difference is that Jones seems to make more of his outs via the strikeout. About hundred less AB where the ball was put in play. Might be a good thing. Might not. Adam Jones has actually grounded into 3 more double plays than Prado over the past two seasons. So….
Walk rate, Prado is better (74 BB compared to 52 for Jones). However, Prado was hit by a pitch only 4 times over the previous two seasons. Jones has been hit 22 times. So when you had them together it’s 78 to 74. Pretty much a wash.
Jones is probably going to play better outfield defense, probably runs a bit better, and likely will hit more “3-run HR” along the way. And of course can play CF.
Other than that, I think it’s a sideways move. Not an upgrade or a downgrade.
Now, one could argue that Prado wasn’t the “real” Prado the past two years. Sure. Maybe not. But at some point, the “real” Prado is a guy that likely will miss 25-35 games due to some injury.
Until he plays 155+ games two years in a row, I’ll consider him a guy that can’t do it. Jones has been a tad more durable. So if you stay with Prado the “backups” in the OF come into play for 20 or so games.
While on the surface and if healthy, I’d contend that Prado is probably the better player. But I’d take Adam Jones for 150 games, over Prado for 130 and whoever else is going to get thrown out there when Prado is either hurt or filling in for Chipper.
It’s two-fold. If Prado is replacing Chipper, that’s a down grade and whoever is replacing Prado is likely a downgrade. Two spots downgraded. If Adam Jones is in LF (or in CF with Bourn in LF), and Chipper goes down?
Only one position is downgraded. And depending on who Wren would find to backup Chipper? It might be a better replacement than Prado has been at 3B the past two years. His numbers have been downright awful when filling in for Chipper at 3B.
Anyhow, that’s my 20 paragraph version of my two cents of Prado vs. Jones.
Let’s see now. We could sign Beltran for lots of bucks and way too many years, possibly seeing him spend much of that contract injured. We could sign Cody Ross as a Free Agent – who some feel is a fourth outfielder (thought that was what we were looking for) and again for more money than we likely have. Or we could trade Jurrjens for a lower return that many would like. Or we could trade Martin, who will likely have a comeback season and who fills two positions, for someone most don’t like or want. Or we could sign Cuddyer, who most view as an expensive version of Prado.
I’m beginning to go along with raleighbraves here – just let Diaz and Hinske play out there when Prado is at third and trust that having the deepest rotation in baseball and the best bullpen as well will carry us where we want to go.
Nathan – That’s why you use Jurrjens and not Prado to trade for Jones. Jurrjens can be replaced and if the recent past is indicative of the future, he will have to be replaced again anyway.
BRAVES MUST NOT TRADE MARTIN because if they do and CHIPPER cannot play a lot, BRAVES will have a problem not only at SS but also 3RD BASE with no MARTIN.
Maybe I should mention that in my Cuddyer or Beltran scenario we keep Prado as he can then spell Heyward, Uggla, and Chipper when needed….(Cuddyer would play RF w/ JH out)
i also like luke scott as a target, as long as he is healed up. he can play the corners or first base, and doesnt totally suck vs. lefthanded pitching. he had a bad year due to injury but he is the best, most talented player on the non tender list this year.
Totally agree Lew. I’ve been long on board for having Prado go back to the super-sub on the team. Then if Chipper retires after the season and they don’t think he’s good enough to be the everyday 3B, they can trade him next off-season.
I was simply comparing Jones and Prado against eachother as an everyday LF.
Hell, with Chipper retiring after this year (if he does), there would probably be enough money off the books to STILL afford to keep Prado around in 2013 as the super-sub.
But at some point that’s too much money for a backup. Then again, NFL teams that skimp on a backup QB, usually miss the playoffs.
Prado as the super-sub might be the most important guy on the team.
PTown – If only Beltran had not missed those pesky 200 games the last three years and was guaranteed to not do it again over a three year deal.
Beats the hell out of me how so many continually complain about Chipper, Prado, Jurrjens and others missing so many games, yet see nothing by Beltran except his OBP and conveniently forget he’s not durable and can’t play center field anymore.
The Twins just signed Josh Willingham. This was the move the Braves were supposed to make. Prado could start at Short while Pastornicky is getting ready. And on days where Chipper sits Prado shifts to third and Pastornicky spells at short. Frank Wren is so obsessed with trades he’s too preoccupied to see bargain signings sitting right in front of him. BAH!!!!!!
The Twins just signed Josh Willingham. This was the move the Braves were supposed to make. Prado could start at Short while Pastornicky is getting ready
Most asinine statement I have read in a month! One more time before I head on out of town, MARTIN PRADO CANNOT PLAY SHORT STOP!!!
3,625 comments Add your comment
Mitchie-sand
December 15th, 2011
10:59 am
I hear Chuck James was solid til the sixth…
raleighbravefan
December 15th, 2011
11:01 am
VJ – I’m not excited about an Atlanta boy playing for the NY Mess, but he isn’t exactly Cy Young. I think I can live with it.
richbrave
December 15th, 2011
11:05 am
I would add that no set of visualization or stats can determine probability if either or both contain a small sample size.
One complements the other…….visualization over time while building stats is the most solid way to determine probability.
That’s why when asked what I think of an individual BRAVES prospect, I always add a caveat if I haven’t been able to include both into my personal evaluation.
This necessity is what makes DOB’s work so invaluable. He sees a lot of baseball, and not exclusively BRAVES baseball, is constantly digging into and upgrading data on individual BRAVES while all the while having eyes and ears inside the clubhouse.
Even though WREN has become quite circumspect regarding information, DAVID’s must be the best data available here on the BRAVES in the vast majority of BRAVES machinations.
jason
December 15th, 2011
11:05 am
hate to see anyone get cut, but how can anyone cry over conrad the cannot play defense period he single handedly knocked us out of playoffs 2 years ago
Murph
December 15th, 2011
11:06 am
.299 .337 .494 .830
Lew
December 15th, 2011
11:06 am
I think the really good news is that Chuck didn’t sign with the Braves.
richbrave – Not so sure I see them considering a trade of Pastornicky.
RC
December 15th, 2011
11:07 am
I hear Chuck James was solid til the sixth…
Batter or pitch?
P-Town Brave© Its Clobberin' Time!™
December 15th, 2011
11:07 am
The Braves starting lineup is too left handed. The whole point of upgrading left field with a right handed or switch hitting “thumper” is to make the lineup more balanced and less vulnerable to LHP. In that respect, replacing Prado with Adam Jones is kind of a lateral move. Last season Adam Jones had a .665 OPS vs. LHP and Prado had a .673 OPS vs. LHP. Does trading for Adam Jones really make the team that much better, and at what cost?
THAT is why I particularly pointed out why I would trade JJ for prospects from Cincy and go after either Cuddyer or Beltran….
In 2011, Cuddyer OPSed .993, yes .993 against LHP and Beltran OPSed .923
Either would be a major step up in the middle of the lineup for what usually goes on v LHP.
Don
December 15th, 2011
11:08 am
It is AMAZING – that everyone is assuming that the Braves’ Pitching is going to be great.
WAKE UP – FOUR of our FIVE Starters are coming off INJURIES.
Many times pitchers NEVER come back and really be great after serious injuries.
And this is just a SMALL SAMPLE of the problem. Of all the Starting Pitchers that the Braves have had in the 6 or 7 years since Leo left as Pitching Coach (counting the ones who have been in the roatation a reasonable length of time) almost ALL of them have ended up being INJURED.
There is no way to have enough pitching talent to continue to overcome this. The Braves are going to have SIGNIFICANT PITCHING PROBLEMS – if not now, SOON.
RC
December 15th, 2011
11:08 am
hate to see anyone get cut, but how can anyone cry over conrad the cannot play defense period he single handedly knocked us out of playoffs 2 years ago
Also got the team INTO the playoffs, so I’ll call it an overall wash.
ColoradoBravesFan
December 15th, 2011
11:10 am
Lew…
I think for what the Braves need Cody Ross would be a much better fit than A Jones. (except for $). Ross kills LH pitching, Jones actually hits RH pitching better for his career than lefties. Braves would have to trade Prado or JJ or Prospects for Jones, only need cash for C. Ross.
Braves need a 4th OFer to cover LF when Prado plays third, rest Heyward against tough lefties, cover CF to Bourn a day off and PH/late inning defense. Cody Ross fits all those better than Jones without having to give up JJ or top prospects.
raleighbravefan
December 15th, 2011
11:10 am
jason – NO ONE single-handedly can determine the outcome of a ballgame.
Lew
December 15th, 2011
11:10 am
Yes, Hudson’s back, Jurrjens’ knee, Medlen’s elbow and Hanson’s shoulder issues must certainly be attributable to McDowell.
richbrave
December 15th, 2011
11:11 am
DON:
Amazin’……….Mets fan?
P-Town Brave© Its Clobberin' Time!™
December 15th, 2011
11:12 am
BTW, to tell you why numbers don’t always mean everything….
Carlos Lee ranked 2nd in all of baseball in defensive WAR this year
ncscoots
December 15th, 2011
11:13 am
It kinda boils down to the fact that some people think they know it all,
Ahhh, I can’t get all over a guy for that. Hits too close to home.
Lew
December 15th, 2011
11:14 am
Colorado Braves – Check their numbers. JOnes and Ross are esentially the same offensive players except that Jones has more power. He’ll also cost leass over the two years than Ross would and they both play all three outfield positions.
I just don’t see losing Jurrjens as that big a deal and Jpnes can do al that Ross can with Martin still here.
Honestly, though, either would work about as well, but Jurrjens in a trade would offset Jones’ salary.
P-Town Brave© Its Clobberin' Time!™
December 15th, 2011
11:15 am
BTW, just for purposes of mentioning though,
Carlos Lee OPSed 1.028 against LHP
<—thats just crazy good
P-Town Brave© Its Clobberin' Time!™
December 15th, 2011
11:17 am
CBF-
Cody Ross OPSed .698 v LHP in 2011….
Thats MUCH worse than Prado in a very down year for Prado….
Why would this make ANYONE happy?!
richbrave
December 15th, 2011
11:17 am
ncscoots
December 15th, 2011
11:13 am
It kinda boils down to the fact that some people think they know it all,
Ahhh, I can’t get all over a guy for that. Hits too close to home.
Chuckle!
P-Town Brave© Its Clobberin' Time!™
December 15th, 2011
11:18 am
I get that his career OPS v LHP is slightly over .900 but watching him in 2011 it almost looked like he was a shell of that playoff player in 2010 and is falling off the back end of his career at age 30.
ColoradoBravesFan
December 15th, 2011
11:19 am
Murph
December 15th, 2011
10:52 am
Adam Jones – August 21, 2011:
.299 .337 .494 .830
Again, that’s August 21, not April 21.
Was this just a 2.5 month hot streak or did Jones figure it out. I would bet it was just a hot streak because Jones did not sustain it…. Aug 262/283/427 710OPS and Sept 222/279/397 676OPS.
Prado sustained his through 3 years not 3 months
P-Town Brave© Its Clobberin' Time!™
December 15th, 2011
11:19 am
Scoots-
you a know it all?
Nah
Murph
December 15th, 2011
11:22 am
As a Braves fan I’d kill for a player who went on a 2.5 month hot streak. Literally, I’d kill Ward if it meant we could acquire a player like that.
P-Town Brave© Its Clobberin' Time!™
December 15th, 2011
11:23 am
^^ LMAO
jason
December 15th, 2011
11:23 am
i knew i may get hit a bit on conrad comments undertsand all said just very sour still on the guy and it is hard to spend a roster spot on a guy who bats 3 times a week and cannot play defense
McFann O O o
December 15th, 2011
11:24 am
Chucky!!
ColoradoBravesFan
December 15th, 2011
11:24 am
Lew… i did check the nubers and Ross for his carre has been been over .900 OPS v LHed pitching, and JJ is a big deal. All-star starting pitching should be able to bring in better than A. Jones in a trade. Keep JJ until next off-season if Jones is the best we can do now.
I agree we need to keep Prado… and sign C Ross if possible. He is a better fit and only cost cash not JJ or prospects.
CB
December 15th, 2011
11:25 am
Nobody can kill Ward except the person who created him.
ColoradoBravesFan
December 15th, 2011
11:25 am
Murph… nice
jason
December 15th, 2011
11:27 am
keep JJ and Prado and sign Ross way better than trading for Jones we need depth this would allow for a reasonable cost
Lew
December 15th, 2011
11:27 am
Colorado Braves – Didn’t mean to sound like that when I mentioned the numbers . Yes, Ross is better against LHP, but can we afford a Free Agent contract without trading a salary to replace it?
Actually, I’d like to see a one year option out there and go for someone much better next winter when salary is freed.
ColoradoBravesFan
December 15th, 2011
11:28 am
P-Town… that .698 OPS against LHed pitching for Ross still was better than A. Jones .665 OPS vs lefties in 2011.
Lew
December 15th, 2011
11:29 am
Unless they can make a deal for Swisher and then sign him to an extension.
ColoradoBravesFan
December 15th, 2011
11:31 am
Lew.. the only one year option guy I know is Matty Diaz, and he doesn’t play CF.
Murph
December 15th, 2011
11:32 am
I still like the idea of getting Jones, but honestly I’m starting to fall into a bit of malaise about the team this offseason. I keep telling myself that Wren has something big up his sleeve, but the more and more I think about it the more I start to believe the biggest offseason move will be dumping Lowe and the biggest acquisition will be Ronny Cedeno.
Not horrible considering how talented the team is, but man oh man… sigh… I just miss Ted. That’s what this is all really about… I miss Ted. A lot. Sniff sniff. Lew, gimme a hug!
Bat Masterson
December 15th, 2011
11:32 am
My housekeeper is here this morning and a little while ago she changed the TV from CNBC to some kind of talk show. I heard some woman screaming about having a relationship with one guy then, when he left her, she started having sex with his little brother. So she had a baby, she says the 16 year old kid is the father.
I had to go look, both the guys look stupid to me…… DNA test and the winner is….. the little brother.
Or is he the loser?
Maybe the baby is the loser
Wow
Now another fight about paternity….. Who are these people!? Yikes
Lew
December 15th, 2011
11:33 am
ColBraves – I’m certain that there is somewhere out there besids Matt Diaz, though I wish Matty would find his Mojo against LHP.
Or maybe Wren is telling us the truth that they can boost payroll a bit to fill the need. Guess we’ll see.
Lew
December 15th, 2011
11:33 am
Meant someone out there.
raleighbravefan
December 15th, 2011
11:33 am
scoots – You’re no “know it all”, more like a “knows more than most”.
ColoradoBravesFan
December 15th, 2011
11:33 am
I am still hoping/dreaming that the Royals lose their minds and agree to trade the Braves that Myers guy. He looks as though he will be really good.
Lew
December 15th, 2011
11:35 am
Murph -Thanks, but I’ll pass on the hug.
DAP
December 15th, 2011
11:36 am
old man If the OF metrics say Jones is better than Prado, then ya gotta think about a trade, even if you ignore your eyeballs.
they dont. OF metrics have jones as a bad CFer and prado as at least a average LFer. Maybe a little better than average. dont know how that would traslate to adam jones in LF, but since prado is a better hitter than jones, it doesnt really make sense to swap them out in LF.
David O'Brien
December 15th, 2011
11:36 am
Heyman’s reporting that Prince could well become a Ranger. If that’s the case … whew. That Rangers lineup with Fielder added would be frightening. A freakin’ blitzkrieg.
DAP
December 15th, 2011
11:37 am
lew Has much the same numbers as Cody Ross, who many have wanted to fill LF this year, only with more power potential, costs less and is under contractual control for two years.
so he has the same numbers as cody ross, and we are going to trade a 25 year old all star pitcher for him? how do ytou know adam jones will cost less than cody ross? jones is projected to mkae $6.6mil in arbitration.
also, i cant speak for everybody else, but i floated cody ross as a 4th outfielder. should we trade jurrjens for a 4th outfielder? eff no.
raleighbravefan
December 15th, 2011
11:38 am
DOB – Rangers are already frightening…now if they can just find an ace…
Bat Masterson
December 15th, 2011
11:38 am
Oh god, another one……….. This woman cheated on her guy with 8 other guys, but she is sure the ugly boyfriend is the daddy of the daughter. More DNA and lie detector test coming ……… wee ……
Who watches this craziness
P-Town Brave© Its Clobberin' Time!™
December 15th, 2011
11:38 am
CBF-
Well, Ive never been a huge fan of Jones myself and have explicitly mentioned that IF we’re trading JJ and Prado to Baltimore it better damn well be for Nick Markakis…
Therefore, like I said, Id rather trade JJ to Cincy for specs, keep Prado, and use the money to go after Cuddyer or Beltran w/ backloaded deals.
Either of those two players are game changers…Cody Ross is not.
raleighbravefan
December 15th, 2011
11:39 am
The more I hear, the more I think we should get a backup SS, and see what happens in ST.
P-Town Brave© Its Clobberin' Time!™
December 15th, 2011
11:39 am
Raleigh-
Nah….the Rangers will just go out and put up a football score every game….
Who needs pitching when you can score 8 in the first inning
raleighbravefan
December 15th, 2011
11:41 am
P-town – Those guys are game changers…IF they are able to play, and not on the DL.
old man
December 15th, 2011
11:41 am
I asked who do people think would be a better defensive LFer in 2012, Adam Jones or Martin Prado.
I got one straight answer. Come on guys, just one word–Jones or Prado?
DAP
December 15th, 2011
11:43 am
.299 .337 .494 .830
murph, the season goes through september. he took a 50 OPS point dive in one month. do you know how bad you have to be to take a 50 point OPS dive in a month? please post his numbers from august 22nd on. the player you say seems to be headed in the right direction.
RC
December 15th, 2011
11:43 am
Jones vs. Ross vs. Prado. I’m off to lunch, enjoy.
http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=1760&playerid2=6368&playerid3=3312&position=OF&page=8&type=full
K-man
December 15th, 2011
11:44 am
Cody Ross would be a pretty good option for the Braves. He’d be low risk on dollars, plays all 3 OF positions, hits LH pitching, is at the point of his career when he can not expect an everyday job on a contender, is familiar with Fredi’s managing, and would be great in the clubhouse. Seems like a perfect fit in many ways.
But, from the few reports we can find about what the Braves are trying to do (not a knock on DOB, but Wren puts a lid on leaks), it looks like the Braves are trying to get a more substantial option, who can also play CF if Bourn goes Free-Agent, and are talking with Baltimore. That fits really well with the picture of the Braves pursuing a deal for Adam Jones.
I like Ross better if we are to keep Prado, which I really want. But, if we are looking more to the future, and are going to deal Prado anyway, then a deal for Adam Jones looks good.
Fairbrave
December 15th, 2011
11:44 am
Defensive- Prado Offensive- Jones
ColoradoBravesFan
December 15th, 2011
11:44 am
P-Town … I too want Braves to sign Beltran more than Ross. Just do not in any way shape or form see Adam Jones as an upgrade over Prado or Bourn.
Murph
December 15th, 2011
11:44 am
Lew, are you scared of showing affection? I’m comfortable enough with my manliness to give another man a hug, and not a man hug where you shake hands and then hug on top of the handshake with your hands creating some sort of man-boob barrier. A real, honest to goodness hug.
Gimme a hug.
dp
December 15th, 2011
11:45 am
Dob in your opinión do u think frank wren has a big trade cooking with him being so quiet
Murph
December 15th, 2011
11:47 am
DAP, I would not give you a hug.
Yes, Jones was in a slump in September. It happens. In fact, it happens to most players at some point during the season.
DAP
December 15th, 2011
11:49 am
old man I got one straight answer. Come on guys, just one word–Jones or Prado?
no straight answer available, since jones doesnt play LF. no way to know.
K-man
December 15th, 2011
11:49 am
Jones would be a much better defensive LF’er than Prado.
DAP
December 15th, 2011
11:51 am
murph Jones was in a slump in September. It happens. In fact, it happens to most players at some point during the season.
post the numbers. lets see them.
K-man
December 15th, 2011
11:51 am
Jones would be a much better defensive LF’er than Prado, mostly because Jones is an OF’er and Prado is an infielder playing OF.
DAP
December 15th, 2011
11:53 am
k-man Jones would be a much better defensive LF’er than Prado.
how do you know that, exactly?
DAP
December 15th, 2011
11:55 am
k-man Jones would be a much better defensive LF’er than Prado, mostly because Jones is an OF’er and Prado is an infielder playing OF.
so you are going by titles and ignoring ability and factual information.
old man
December 15th, 2011
11:57 am
So far, only FairBrave thinks Jones is not better defensively. I see a trend.
Bat Masterson
December 15th, 2011
11:58 am
Yes, Jones was in a slump in September. It happens.
Just a quick glance but it looks like Jones sucked for 24 games in March/April and for 47 games in Aug/Sept/Oct and was pretty good for 80 games in between.
ColoradoBravesFan
December 15th, 2011
11:58 am
I always thought that a good CFer would be better defensively than almost all LFers… then I saw McLouth in LF. He just never seemed comfortable and really didn’t do very well in LF . That’s just my limited memory though.
Lew
December 15th, 2011
11:59 am
Murph – No – I”m afraid of being stabbed repeatedly by your three year old homicidal toddler.
DAP – Dude, Cody Ross wasn’t my suggestion – it’s been more than floated here all week long. I still want Wren to figure a way to trade for Nick Swisher. As for Jurrjens? I will not miss him and we have plenty of arms to replace him. The Kids are going to have to ear their keep sometime and they had some experience during a stretch drive last year, so let them pitch. Don’t know how much you seriously believe we’ll get in return for him anyway. He’ worth more than some believe and nowhere near what others think he’s worth.
ATL Insider
December 15th, 2011
12:03 pm
If the Rangers land Prince, that would allow them to trade Cruz or Hamilton for a SP.
Lew
December 15th, 2011
12:03 pm
All any of this is proving is that no matter who comes in to fill the position, someone is going to be pissed off. Imagine that.
JoeBrave
December 15th, 2011
12:04 pm
To all fellow bloggers, called away on short notice, just wanted to say to DOB, and all of you, If I am hindered from posting until after Christmas, I want to wish each and everyone a safe, Merry, and Joyous Christmas! may your Stockings be filled with Joy, and your presents be filled with happiness! Oh! Yeah and GO BRAVES!
Bat Masterson
December 15th, 2011
12:04 pm
Jones OBP was around .278 for almost half the games he played last year.
DAP
December 15th, 2011
12:05 pm
lew Dude, Cody Ross wasn’t my suggestion
i know that. you were saying adam jones had similar number to cody ross, and said people here had been wanting cody ross for LF. im just giving you the differences…its not the same situation even if the numbers are similar. ross WONT cost as much as jones, ross WONT cost us a player in a trade, ross WONT be a starting outfielder, ect.
if you were suggesting a trade of jurrjens for ross, it would worry me as much as your suggestion of jurrjens for jones. both would be terrible, terrible trades.
David O'Brien
December 15th, 2011
12:07 pm
Three years, $21 mill for Willingham with Twins. That actually seems pretty reasonable.
P-Town Brave© Its Clobberin' Time!™
December 15th, 2011
12:08 pm
DAP-
Can we agree that neither of those guys put the Braves over the top?
If we got either no one tomorrow would be all gung ho, fan or writer, or what not, that the Braves are headed to the World Series….
Beltran and Cuddyer I would put into the (ever shrinking) category that would change the way the Braves are viewed…especially with all the LH pitching in the division, now with Buehrle added as well.
Bat Masterson
December 15th, 2011
12:08 pm
Merry Christmas to you and your family, JoeBrave
N8
December 15th, 2011
12:09 pm
There are so many factors when comparing Prado to Jones.
For one, over the past two years, Jones has been more durable. Jones can play CF, Prado cannot.
Clearly, a forward thinking GM should look at stats and performance from years past. But might be safer looking at recent trends. Here is what each of them has done the past two seasons:
Prado: 269 games, .284/.319/.423/.742 – 66 doubles, 5 triples, 28 HR (99 total XBH), 123 RBI, 9 SB, 11 CS, 138 K’s.
Jones: 300 games, .282/.321/.453/.774 – 51 doubles, 7 triples, 44 HR (102 total XBH), 152 RBI, 19 SB, 11 CS, 232 K’s
From my angle, like my first point said. About the only difference is one guy can play CF, on guy cannot. Since Wren might be looking for a backup plan in CF next year, that alone would justify having Jones over Prado.
On the flip side, you “fix” one hole, by creating another. Without Prado, there isn’t much backup plan at 3B for 2012 or beyond. But to me Prado isn’t the answer at 3B long-term anyhow, so you cross that bridge when you get to it.
The only other difference is that Jones seems to make more of his outs via the strikeout. About hundred less AB where the ball was put in play. Might be a good thing. Might not. Adam Jones has actually grounded into 3 more double plays than Prado over the past two seasons. So….
Walk rate, Prado is better (74 BB compared to 52 for Jones). However, Prado was hit by a pitch only 4 times over the previous two seasons. Jones has been hit 22 times. So when you had them together it’s 78 to 74. Pretty much a wash.
Jones is probably going to play better outfield defense, probably runs a bit better, and likely will hit more “3-run HR” along the way. And of course can play CF.
Other than that, I think it’s a sideways move. Not an upgrade or a downgrade.
Now, one could argue that Prado wasn’t the “real” Prado the past two years. Sure. Maybe not. But at some point, the “real” Prado is a guy that likely will miss 25-35 games due to some injury.
Until he plays 155+ games two years in a row, I’ll consider him a guy that can’t do it. Jones has been a tad more durable. So if you stay with Prado the “backups” in the OF come into play for 20 or so games.
While on the surface and if healthy, I’d contend that Prado is probably the better player. But I’d take Adam Jones for 150 games, over Prado for 130 and whoever else is going to get thrown out there when Prado is either hurt or filling in for Chipper.
It’s two-fold. If Prado is replacing Chipper, that’s a down grade and whoever is replacing Prado is likely a downgrade. Two spots downgraded. If Adam Jones is in LF (or in CF with Bourn in LF), and Chipper goes down?
Only one position is downgraded. And depending on who Wren would find to backup Chipper? It might be a better replacement than Prado has been at 3B the past two years. His numbers have been downright awful when filling in for Chipper at 3B.
Anyhow, that’s my 20 paragraph version of my two cents of Prado vs. Jones.
Lew
December 15th, 2011
12:09 pm
Let’s see now. We could sign Beltran for lots of bucks and way too many years, possibly seeing him spend much of that contract injured. We could sign Cody Ross as a Free Agent – who some feel is a fourth outfielder (thought that was what we were looking for) and again for more money than we likely have. Or we could trade Jurrjens for a lower return that many would like. Or we could trade Martin, who will likely have a comeback season and who fills two positions, for someone most don’t like or want. Or we could sign Cuddyer, who most view as an expensive version of Prado.
I’m beginning to go along with raleighbraves here – just let Diaz and Hinske play out there when Prado is at third and trust that having the deepest rotation in baseball and the best bullpen as well will carry us where we want to go.
ColoradoBravesFan
December 15th, 2011
12:09 pm
I don’t think Adam Jones is a good target for the Braves. I hope Braves sign either Bourn or maybe steal Victorino away from the Phils.
That should get McFann’s attention….
kenhotlanta
December 15th, 2011
12:10 pm
JoeBrave: Merry Christmas to you and your family.
JoeBrave
December 15th, 2011
12:12 pm
And DOB…one helluva cover guy for the Braves! Thanks for such a forum for rabid fans.
JoeBrave
December 15th, 2011
12:13 pm
Asking for all to shoot up a prayer for one of my Appraisers, Cancer is such a bad thing especially at Christmas.
Lew
December 15th, 2011
12:15 pm
Nathan – That’s why you use Jurrjens and not Prado to trade for Jones. Jurrjens can be replaced and if the recent past is indicative of the future, he will have to be replaced again anyway.
JoeBrave
December 15th, 2011
12:15 pm
Maybe when I get back, Wren will have a LF that everyone can be happy over, after all it’s just a game!
George
December 15th, 2011
12:15 pm
BRAVES MUST NOT TRADE MARTIN because if they do and CHIPPER cannot play a lot, BRAVES will have a problem not only at SS but also 3RD BASE with no MARTIN.
P-Town Brave© Its Clobberin' Time!™
December 15th, 2011
12:17 pm
Ugh…the thought of Hinske and Diaz #OccupyingLF makes me violently ill….
They shouldn’t be doing anything other than grabbing an occasional AB off the bench…
Having Beltran for 100 games would be more valuable than either of those guys would be for 162!
And Cuddyer hit 20 HR in 2011 and had an OPS close to 1.000 last year and OPS is a MAJOR plus for his career against LHP…
Im as big a Prado supporter as anyone here….Prado will never hit 20 HR or OPS that high.
JoeBrave
December 15th, 2011
12:18 pm
And George shows up…:)George, Prado isn’t gong anywhere, now little Georgie Constanza might, but Prado…nah.
P-Town Brave© Its Clobberin' Time!™
December 15th, 2011
12:18 pm
Maybe I should mention that in my Cuddyer or Beltran scenario we keep Prado as he can then spell Heyward, Uggla, and Chipper when needed….(Cuddyer would play RF w/ JH out)
DAP
December 15th, 2011
12:22 pm
i also like luke scott as a target, as long as he is healed up. he can play the corners or first base, and doesnt totally suck vs. lefthanded pitching. he had a bad year due to injury but he is the best, most talented player on the non tender list this year.
Murph
December 15th, 2011
12:22 pm
post the numbers. lets see them.
http://www.baseball-reference.com
N8
December 15th, 2011
12:22 pm
Totally agree Lew. I’ve been long on board for having Prado go back to the super-sub on the team. Then if Chipper retires after the season and they don’t think he’s good enough to be the everyday 3B, they can trade him next off-season.
I was simply comparing Jones and Prado against eachother as an everyday LF.
Hell, with Chipper retiring after this year (if he does), there would probably be enough money off the books to STILL afford to keep Prado around in 2013 as the super-sub.
But at some point that’s too much money for a backup. Then again, NFL teams that skimp on a backup QB, usually miss the playoffs.
Prado as the super-sub might be the most important guy on the team.
DAP
December 15th, 2011
12:24 pm
luke scott has big power and can get plenty of ABs when prado or freeman need a break or when prado is filling in for chipper.
DAP
December 15th, 2011
12:26 pm
murph post the numbers. lets see them.
http://www.baseball-reference.com
why didnt you do that for the numbers thru august 21st? looks like youre afraid to post ugly numbers from your boy.
Lew
December 15th, 2011
12:27 pm
PTown – If only Beltran had not missed those pesky 200 games the last three years and was guaranteed to not do it again over a three year deal.
Beats the hell out of me how so many continually complain about Chipper, Prado, Jurrjens and others missing so many games, yet see nothing by Beltran except his OBP and conveniently forget he’s not durable and can’t play center field anymore.
Joey M
December 15th, 2011
12:29 pm
The Twins just signed Josh Willingham. This was the move the Braves were supposed to make. Prado could start at Short while Pastornicky is getting ready. And on days where Chipper sits Prado shifts to third and Pastornicky spells at short. Frank Wren is so obsessed with trades he’s too preoccupied to see bargain signings sitting right in front of him. BAH!!!!!!
Lew
December 15th, 2011
12:32 pm
Oh Lord – Yet another “Prado can play short” poster. Yep, sure he can – he played it one game once before, sometime or other.
P-Town Brave© Its Clobberin' Time!™
December 15th, 2011
12:32 pm
Lew-
Beltran like Cuddyer would be playing LF, not CF…
No way does Beltran ever go back to CF on one of my teams….thats part of what kept him healthier and able to produce this past season….
JoeBrave
December 15th, 2011
12:33 pm
The Twins just signed Josh Willingham. This was the move the Braves were supposed to make. Prado could start at Short while Pastornicky is getting ready
Most asinine statement I have read in a month! One more time before I head on out of town, MARTIN PRADO CANNOT PLAY SHORT STOP!!!