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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
3,625 comments Add your comment
JC Brave
December 14th, 2011
11:02 pm
Well, not another invisible bat at the position, for example. But they’re gonna get a cheap, no offense, average glove bum anyways, so who cares?
nolie
December 14th, 2011
11:02 pm
won’t surprise me too awful much if it ends p being Hichs with the current prices going around, maybe Ceneno.
I keep an eye on the Bill James metrics for guys that I don’t see very often. Over the years I have found that it pretty much agrees with my appraisals and with what happens.
What has been killing Jones is his deep numbers. Thats what killed McCutchen’s numbers for two years and this year they said he was setting up deeper to begin with and his numbers improved quite a lot. Perhaps Jones should try that
nolie
December 14th, 2011
11:06 pm
I think maybe Andruw’s shallow style of play influenced some fast young guys into thinking that was the cool way to play center, but although they have the speed almost none of them had the great jump and arrow straight routes that Druw had.
P'cola Brave
December 14th, 2011
11:08 pm
nolie
Thats true. There aren’t many that can go back on the ball like Druw could. He sure was fun to watch patrol CF.
TnBrian
December 14th, 2011
11:10 pm
Andruw was unreal. He literallly glided to wherever the ball was hit and almost always made the play. Yeah, he got the best jumps and near perfect routes. Had to because he wasn’t exactly a burner.
P'cola Brave
December 14th, 2011
11:10 pm
Willingham is in Minnesota for physical. Reported yesterday that it is believed to be in the 3 yr 21 mil range. Suprised that he will only get around 7 mil.
nolie
December 14th, 2011
11:13 pm
I thought 7-8 mil, in fact I said a coupla times that he was about the only 800+ hitter that the Braves actually had a chance of affording if they wanted to stretch payroll a bit like Wren claimed might happen
TnBrian
December 14th, 2011
11:14 pm
There is a reality show on vh1 called “baseball wives”. Some of these chicks were with guys like Quentin McCracken, Kris Benson, Chuck Knoblauch, Ron Villone and one nasty looking chick dated Nyger Morgan.
nolie
December 14th, 2011
11:15 pm
guy can hit, and he probably misses less time than Cruz who everybody here loves.
P'cola Brave
December 14th, 2011
11:16 pm
As much interest or as much as the Braves have been linked to Willingham in the past I figured they would definitely be more involved with him this offseason.
cabravesfan
December 14th, 2011
11:17 pm
TnBrian-
Anna Benson is Kris’s wife. They’ve actually been married for a while now. Read an interview with her- they seem to have a unique but surprisingly stable marriage. Not that I have any interest in the show- she’s not exactly…
TnBrian
December 14th, 2011
11:17 pm
Seems every offseason, or every other one, Willingham comes up a FA or trade bait and we have the need for a corner OF bat, yet they pass on him every time. Gotta be his bad back they’re scared of. Guy can hit, but an injury scare.
TnBrian
December 14th, 2011
11:21 pm
cab, my wife is watching this show right now and these women are pure trash. One of them is actually normal and she’s pretty. Not sure who her ex is.
cabravesfan
December 14th, 2011
11:23 pm
TnBrian-
That was my impression just reading about it (a friend sent me the link to the Anna Benson interview)- It was actually an interesting interview, even if she didn’t come off as the most…intelligent of women. As for the rest of them…I can only imagine
TnBrian
December 14th, 2011
11:25 pm
I’m so mean sometimes. But damn, they come on national tv acting worse than wild animals and people will say things.
P'cola Brave
December 14th, 2011
11:26 pm
Suprised by the Cubs interest in Coco Crisp. They have Dejesus, Byrd and Soriano. Dejesus just signed and Soriano isn’t going anywhere. If they look to move Marlon Byrd I hope Wren gives Theo a ring.
nolie
December 14th, 2011
11:30 pm
Byrd is a big ol’ boy for a CFer. poor year in 2011, one year left at 6.5,
TnBrian
December 14th, 2011
11:32 pm
Byrd would be good for us.
Lots of ways Wren can go here. Speculation can drive a man crazy.
P'cola Brave
December 14th, 2011
11:37 pm
Nolie
But were not talking about Byrd as full time CFer in Ted. He would just need to play LF and RF with CF on occasion. From ‘07 to ‘10 he had an OPS+ over 100 and a 96 last year in a down year. A career line of .291 .330 .430 .760 hitting @ the Ted. Of course its just my opinion but I think he’d be a great fit here. The guys is a model of consistency. Has a career AVG of .281 against RHP, LHP, Home and Away.
nolie
December 14th, 2011
11:45 pm
wasn’t saying yea or nae, just puttin’ out some facts. I wanted him last winter, I’d take him this year . buy I wouldn’t trade Prado or JJ for him with just one season left
P'cola Brave
December 14th, 2011
11:49 pm
No I don’t think Theo and his crew really would ask for that. They seem to be looking to build the farm back. It may take a prospect or two but that seems to be the FO goal in Chicago right now.
nolie
December 14th, 2011
11:56 pm
well I GG. TTFN. take care
kenhotlanta
December 15th, 2011
12:00 am
Marlon Byrd is a homeboy, he graduated from my high school, Sprayberry in Marietta, GA as did Jimmy Nash, AL Rookie of the Year eons ago.
DS1
December 15th, 2011
12:32 am
Did everybody go to bed?
What Frank, no hot deals tonight?
Venice Jim
December 15th, 2011
12:55 am
DS1 – I think he was about to make a big deal but realized there was no one here to see it…
DeProf - DDGxx
December 15th, 2011
1:15 am
Many ifs, but…..
If Prado and McCann’s seasons were seriously affected by injuries, then DO NOT TRADE Pradp.. He was MVP or close of the team year before. McCann also Mr. clutch when well. Team player and clutch. Might help to settle down in one spot, however. Pitchers JJ and Hanson can also make big difference when well. Like other blogger said, our pitchers seem to fall by the wayside once season starts. Hudson and wildcard Medlin critical as well as on Young Gun needs to come through. More uncertain is JH kid returning to a force. All of these wishes will not be granted. Prado and JH come back to life along with the CF – more than solic. Reality says that Pitching Starters and their related injuries number one concern.
Back to chasing pirates.
Anyway, there is some hope.
C3PO
December 15th, 2011
1:17 am
Hope??? that would be the substance of things wished for, yet unseen! Where there is Wren, there is no hope!
C3PO
December 15th, 2011
1:20 am
One, count it,one trade has worked out for Wren,and no F.A. signings, Wren is a clown among jugglers.
C3PO
December 15th, 2011
1:22 am
Lowe and Kawakakookoo, has Wren gunshy as he!!, he is scared.
C3PO
December 15th, 2011
1:23 am
on the trade front……see Ankiel, and McLousy, I would imagine the heads at LM, have ripped sir frankenstein a new arsehole for blind ignorance.
DeProf - DDGxx
December 15th, 2011
1:24 am
To:Kenhotlanta
coached J Nash son LL minor team -He could powder the ball, Same year E. Marietta won WS LL I believe.
From afar -but to return in time for Super Bowl /Spring Training
C3PO
December 15th, 2011
1:24 am
helllooooooooooo….echoes and crickets….yep that’s what this team is going to be about on a lot of georgia summer nights.
C3PO
December 15th, 2011
1:27 am
On the bright side, every day that passes, is one day closer to no more Wren.
C3PO
December 15th, 2011
1:28 am
Maybe he will go back to Florida, and take Fredi the clueless wonder with him.
C3PO
December 15th, 2011
1:29 am
And now sir I must power down for the evening,be safe!
kenhotlanta
December 15th, 2011
1:30 am
DeProf – DDGxx:
Cool story, Jimmy graduated the year before me and I remember there was never any talk around school that he was anything special as a baseball player, so it was quite a surprise when he made it to the big leagues and had some success. He was just the class clown…funny as hell.
cricket
December 15th, 2011
1:41 am
has DOB published braves’ financial statements yet?
kenhotlanta
December 15th, 2011
2:15 am
Yeah, he broke into Liberty Media’s HQ and stole the files from the safe. The salary numbers should be online in the morning.
kenhotlanta
December 15th, 2011
2:33 am
Jason Isbell has already written a song about it: The Ballad of DOB.
old man
December 15th, 2011
7:04 am
I see an idea of Jurrjens for OF Span with the Twins. Don’t see any upgrade over Prado here.
Ease
December 15th, 2011
7:07 am
kenhotlanta, I played against Byrd in both high school and college. My final collegiate pitch was a high and tight cutter to Bryd that he thought he hammer. Alas, it was not to be. The mighty Byrd struck out. My one claim to fame!
CB
December 15th, 2011
7:49 am
Hey, I’m impressed!
Ease
December 15th, 2011
8:04 am
I want to be snarky and say something like, “You should be, this Petrel had skills back in the day.” But I won’t. That sort of gloating is beneath me.
old man
December 15th, 2011
8:31 am
Back to Adam Jones.
The O’s have a couple of blue chip SS prospects who are just about ready. Hardy is 7M a year, and the idea of him sliding over to third base eventually seems convenient. They view him as a bridge to their version of Simmons, but he would be an A+ “bridge” for the O’s or for us. 07 and 08 were huge years for Hardy, he was down for two years, and then last year had a 4.8 WAR. He would be a big plus for us if he repeated 2011.
The real issue is Jones versus Prado in left. The people who have watched Jones play seem to have a higher opinion of him than those who are using metrics only. Prado vs. Jones is a tough call. Swisher is a clearer choice, obviously.
The O’s WOULD trade their starting SS and CF, if in return they were getting a #2 starter and a starting second baseman, which they could really use. Especially if they got a third player, a prospect, from us. So it would be two starters for two starters, not terribly lop-sided either way. The metrics seem to show Jones making steady, improvement each year offensively.
I’m undecided. Offensively, I would bet on Jones, but only by a bit. Actually, he’s the safe bet, because Prado has to come back from a health issue, and you are depending on a rebound. With Jones, you just want to see the trend continue.
The make or break issue is Jones’ defense, compared to Prado in left. I’ve seen a couple of comments by people who have seen him play who say he makes stellar plays. But is he making easy plays look hard? And aren’t we are talking about a 2011 CF playing an easier position, LF, in 2012? What do you guys think? Is Jones an upgrade defensively over Prado in LF? If he is, then I think the deal makes sense to pursue.
And who would play CF for the O’s if they traded Jones? Not that I care (until the World Series against Baltimore!), but it would affect whether a deal would work.
coach joe
December 15th, 2011
9:09 am
Watched a baseball movie yesterday ..Love of the Game with Kevin Costner.. Corny but a great bb movie… Made me MAD and SAD when the National League MVP gets caught on PEDS…. I love baseball and especially Braves Baseball..(I admit it took me a while to get over the collapse this year)..But this PED stuffs really breaks my heart.. My older sons (26,29) have no interest in baseball because of the last steroid scandal and now we have this new problem..these guys disrespect the game and me Joe fan and it keeps pushing me away….
Sad…. but GO BRAVES..
Hillbilly
December 15th, 2011
9:19 am
American Horror Story was absolutely insane last night. Best episode of the season.
K-man
December 15th, 2011
9:25 am
Old Man, Adam Jones would be a huge defensive upgrade in LF over Prado. Adam Jones might even be an upgrade over Bourn in CF. The metrics can not replace the “eye” test, and Adam Jones is a fine defensive OF.
The question to be answered is, “Can the Braves afford to trade Prado in any deal to upgrade LF without getting back someone to pick up the games Chipper Jones will miss at 3b?”
Baltimore would surely want to upgrade their pitching, and would definitely upgrade 3b with Prado, but would need to acquire a CF somehow if they dealt Adam Jones. I know, their problem, not ours, but it is a factor. I doubt they would want to bolster SP and 3b, just to have to turn around and need to acquire a starting SS and CF.
According to Yahoo Sports, the Orioles:
Biggest Needs: The Orioles could use a corner infielder and an everyday left fielder. 1B/3B Mark Reynolds has versatility, enabling the club to look at both positions. OF Nolan Reimold and 1B/3B Chris Davis provide depth at both positions and at designated hitter. The club could use one or two veteran starting pitchers.
In any event, it is fun to think about. I love the Hot Stove League.
Lew
December 15th, 2011
9:26 am
Ease – Now that’s cool.
Sopheee
December 15th, 2011
9:33 am
Wow, petrel – that is impressive. Byrd got beat by a bird.
Efrim
December 15th, 2011
9:40 am
Ken Rosenthal – http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/cincinnati-reds-need-to-trade-for-pitching-121411
A number of quality starting pitchers – Gio Gonzalez, Wade Davis and John Danks in the AL; Matt Garza, Jair Jurrjens and Wandy Rodriguez in the NL – remain available in trade.
LF Heisey/Alonso, CF Stubbs, RF Bruce
3B Rolen, SS Cozart, 2B Phillips, 1B Votto, C Mesoraco/Hanigan
SP Cueto, Leake, Arroyo, Bailey, Wood
RP Bray, Arrendondo, Ondrusek, Chapman, Masset, Volquez, LeCure
Reds have a good team. Rosenthal is right. They do need to make a trade for a starter and get a closer too. Add those starters available through trade to the free agents available(Oswalt, Jackson, Kuroda, Saunders, Darvish-posting) and it’s no wonder Frank Wren is taking his time.
old man
December 15th, 2011
9:41 am
I would love to hear others, K-man. Is Adam Jones an upgrade defensively in LF?
Bat Masterson
December 15th, 2011
9:44 am
The mighty Byrd struck out. My one claim to fame! _ Ease
Nice Ease.
Someone should set up a Ease verses BAS showdown for blog bragging rights. Maybe raise a few bucks for charity, do it during the All Star Game.
bozz
December 15th, 2011
9:44 am
Actually, metrics can, and SHOULD, always replace the eye test. Judging someone with your eyes is about as asinine of an evaluation as possible.
McFann O O o
December 15th, 2011
9:45 am
Byrd who?
Lew
December 15th, 2011
9:50 am
McFann – Probably Tweety. Only Alfred Hitchcock had angry Byrds back then
old man
December 15th, 2011
9:50 am
It’s both. If 2 guys are 10 points apart in OPS, go to visuals and attitude. On OF fielding metrics how do Prado and Jones compare?
Mitchie-sand
December 15th, 2011
9:51 am
Hey DOB, just saw a commercial for Culture Club doing a show in Dubai and they said “come see one of the greatest pop bands of all time”. Haha, what’s your opinion?
raleighbravefan
December 15th, 2011
9:53 am
bozz – TOTAL BS! While metrics are important, they hardly tell the whole story. A combination of art and science, with the art part coming from scouting and observation. You whippersnappers think you can accomplish everything on the almighty computer.
old man
December 15th, 2011
9:53 am
I’m asking because I’ve never figured out how to read them.
raleighbravefan
December 15th, 2011
9:56 am
M-sand – I guess it comes down partly to your definition of pop (vs rock). Have they ever heard of a little band called The Beatles? or the Eagles, or the Bee Gees (especially pre-disco), or etc., etc., etc.? Culture Club? what a joke!
McFann O O o
December 15th, 2011
9:57 am
Lew—
old man
December 15th, 2011
9:57 am
If the OF metrics say Jones is better than Prado, then ya gotta think about a trade, even if you ignore your eyeballs. Offensively, Jones is a safer bet, with more upside.
raleighbravefan
December 15th, 2011
10:00 am
old man@9:57 – Valid point…except…if you trade Prado, you have to be sure you have a true back-up for Chipper, especially, and infield in general.
RC
December 15th, 2011
10:01 am
old man,
It’s hard to compare Jones and Prado using most defensive metrics, because Jones’s numbers would be derived compared to other CF, while Prado’s numbers would be derived compared to other LF.
My thought is that even if someone is a below average CF, they are probably better defensively than a player who isn’t viewed as having the ability for CF.
Lew
December 15th, 2011
10:02 am
Makes much more sense that if you want Jones from the O’s, you trade them a package of Jurrjens and minor league talent – then you have Prado in LF and 3B and Jones to play LF, CF for rsting Bourn and RF for Heyward – especially if he struggles and if not, against some LH pitching.
Lew
December 15th, 2011
10:03 am
Should have mentioned Martin spelling Uggla and Freeman, too.
bozz
December 15th, 2011
10:04 am
Look at defensive efficiencies to start with, for example. This is the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs. If there’s a vast difference between two players, player A being better than player B but player B making a couple splashy outs, you’d still take player A.
I’d rather have a player that saves my team runs and has a better zone rating and expected out numbers than someone that “looks good.”
old man
December 15th, 2011
10:06 am
RC
Most intelligent thing I’ve seen on the blog in weeks.
Lew
December 15th, 2011
10:08 am
Not to mention that zone ratings are notoriously not all that accurate.
K-man
December 15th, 2011
10:11 am
Bozz, you know absolutely nothing about baseball if really believe the BS you are spouting. Metrics can aid in making a point, but those that use only metrics know nothing of the sport. Can metrics tell who is the more beautiful woman? And, they can not tell who is a better defensive player either. The eye test is vital.
If metrics alone were used, no one would have drafted a WR from a small Mississippi college with a 4.69 40-yard time, who later turned out to be the most prolific WR in NFL history — Jerry Rice. The eye test is vital.
raleighbravefan
December 15th, 2011
10:12 am
bozz – experienced knowledgable scouting and observation if a hell of a l.ot more than “looks good”. Anyone who doesn’t understand that …could be the one considered “asinine”.
raleighbravefan
December 15th, 2011
10:14 am
should be “is” not “if”
Murph
December 15th, 2011
10:14 am
Another super exciting day of no Braves news… so… what should we talk about?
Any Howard Stern listeners out there? He just announced this morning that he’s going to be the new judge on America’s Got Talent. I’m not a big fan of talent shows (contrary to what nolie would tell you), but I’ll be watching this.
Bababooey!!!
Mountain Braves Fan
December 15th, 2011
10:16 am
The Braves starting lineup is too left handed. The whole point of upgrading left field with a right handed or switch hitting “thumper” is to make the lineup more balanced and less vulnerable to LHP. In that respect, replacing Prado with Adam Jones is kind of a lateral move. Last season Adam Jones had a .665 OPS vs. LHP and Prado had a .673 OPS vs. LHP. Does trading for Adam Jones really make the team that much better, and at what cost?
bozz
December 15th, 2011
10:16 am
K-man,
Yep, because comparing a baseball player’s defensive efficiency is JUST like ogling a woman.
Man, it’s a good thing that you’re so right and that this metric thing is going to take off, I’m so glad that baseball is full of people like you who are completely ignoring metrics. Boy, am I an idiot for using science to evaluate a player, all I need to do is watch if he runs fast or if he’s “on a hot streak” like Constanza was. If that’s the case, Constanza is headed for the Hall of Fame while someone like Heyward has just played his last game because he didn’t have a “hot bat” this year and clearly has no talent.
Have fun with your eye test, I’m out of here.
Lew
December 15th, 2011
10:17 am
MOuntain Braves Fan – Depends entirely on how they use the pieces. If Prado plays LF, 3B, 2B and 1B annd Jones plays all three utfield positions, it could work out quite well. You’d only need that illusive veteran back up SS if you traded for Jones.
Lew
December 15th, 2011
10:18 am
Illusive and elusive – at least at this point.
Hugo Z Hackenbush
December 15th, 2011
10:19 am
Metrics wouldn’t be of much use in a Culture Club vs. Beatles discussion, because the Beatles had a much larger defensive “zone.”
RC
December 15th, 2011
10:22 am
Lew,
I’m not sure that I would say the zone ratings are inaccurate, as much as they have limitations that many tend to ignore. For instance, anyone playing left field in Fenway park is at a strong disadvantage in zone rating if compared to someone playing right field in Petco park, simply because in Fenway there is less “zone” to cover. It also doesn’t take into account who the other defenders on the field are, which could make a huge difference in if a player extends his zone or not. I would imagine that anyone playing the corners with Andruw in CF would have pretty bad UZRs, because Andruw was going to call them off and take the ball on anything he could get to. The same player’s would likely have a much better zone rating if say, Nate McLouth was playing center, because he would not only get to fewer balls, but also has a tendency to defer to the other fielder if they both get into position at the same time. While UZR can tell us something, we need to recognize the context, and that there is a lot that it doesn’t tell us.
Lew
December 15th, 2011
10:25 am
RC – So in other words, Zone Rating, like RBI are highly dependent upon other players and hence are meaningless?
Mountain Braves Fan
December 15th, 2011
10:26 am
Lew-I’d still rather have Swisher or Quentin rather than Adam Jones.
Lew
December 15th, 2011
10:32 am
Mountain Braves – Dude, you’re preaching to the choir. I’ve been advocating picking up Swisher any way they could for three years now.
However, Adam Jones looks like what might be possible. Has much the same numbers as Cody Ross, who many have wanted to fill LF this year, only with more power potential, costs less and is under contractual control for two years.
And we could get him without losing Prado, who I feel is much more intewgral to the Braves’ success than many seem to realize.
Bat Masterson
December 15th, 2011
10:34 am
no one would have drafted a WR from a small Mississippi college with a 4.69 40-yard time, who later turned out to be the most prolific WR in NFL history — Jerry Rice. The eye test is vital. K-man
Rec yards avg TD
1984 Mississippi Valley State WR 103 1682 16.3 27 27
Pretty good senior season for Rice, I used to watch late night replays of their games. Fun to watch, I think they averaged around 600 yards of offense a game.
Slowhiteguy
December 15th, 2011
10:36 am
I am still trying to process the Harper-Heyward comparison.
ncscoots
December 15th, 2011
10:40 am
Offensively, Jones is a safer bet, with more upside.
Are you saying it’s a safer bet that Jones will overcome his lack of plate discipline (an ability he has so far not shown) than it is that Prado will revert to his offensive norms? I don’t believe I can agree with that.
Lew
December 15th, 2011
10:40 am
Well, Harper did have a pretty good 36 game stretch wih the Pirates right before he retired.
Bat Masterson
December 15th, 2011
10:41 am
Well that is ugly.
Rec/ 103……. yards/1682 …….. avg/16.3……… TD/27
richbrave
December 15th, 2011
10:44 am
FALL BALL [updated]
AUSTRALIA
No games scheduled.
DOMINICA
No games scheduled.
PUERTO RICO
CAROLINA GIANTS
PH/LF BRAIHAIM MALDONADO [.156 BA] 0-0, 1 BB.
VENEZUELA
ANZOATEGUI INDIANS
RF STEFAN GARTRELL [.214 BA] 1-5, 1 R, 1 2B [5], 3 RBI [6], 1 SO.
CARACAS LIONS
No BRAVES played.
LARA CARDINALS
C JOSE YEPEZ [.212 BA] 1-2, 1 SO.
ZULIA EAGLES
No game scheduled.
Mitchie-sand
December 15th, 2011
10:45 am
Yeah, I don’t think I’m going to take that trip to Dubai.
Vesaversa
December 15th, 2011
10:49 am
I liked Conrad as a hitter but he suck at his position .So it didn’t surprise me that the brave released him.
STRETCH
December 15th, 2011
10:49 am
Braves Interested In Ronny Cedeno
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [December 15 at 9:19am CST]
The Braves are among the teams interested in free agent shortstop Ronny Cedeno, according to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (on Twitter). The Peter E. Greenberg & Associates client has been on Atlanta’s backup shortstop and utility list all offseason, O’Brien reports.
The Pirates declined Cedeno’s option earlier this offseason, after he posted a .249/.297/.339 line in 454 plate appearances. The 28-year-old posted a strong 6.8 UZR/150 at shortstop this past season, though his career mark of -1.6 UZR/150 is slightly below average. The Red Sox and Pirates were also linked to Cedeno earlier this offseason, but they’ve since added depth in Nick Punto and Clint Barmes, respectively.
Alex Gonzalez won’t return to Atlanta; he agreed to terms with the Brewers last week. GM Frank Wren figures to add a shortstop on a one-year deal to provide Tyler Pastornicky with time to develop into an everyday player. Yuniesky Betancourt, Cesar Izturis, Ryan Theriot and Jack Wilson are among the available free agent shortstops.
raleighbravefan
December 15th, 2011
10:49 am
bozz – NO ONE is saying to ignore the metrics, or that they don’t have value, or that they don’t have GREAT value. We ARE saying that metrics have a valid place as PART of the evaluation process, but that the numbers don’t tell NEARLY all the story…and that proper scouting has a significant value in the said evaluation of a player. Get your head out of your computer and into the real world, at least once in a while. The best decision makers depend upon the most modern science available, but also depend upon the art of evaluation. To not do so WOULD be asinine.
richbrave
December 15th, 2011
10:49 am
LEW:
I like ADAM JONES and…………who from the O’s for JJ? If a top prospect is included this could happen Maybe MACHADO and JONES with a mid-level OF’er prospect for JJ and the PASTOR?
ColoradoBravesFan
December 15th, 2011
10:51 am
old man
December 15th, 2011
9:57 am
If the OF metrics say Jones is better than Prado, then ya gotta think about a trade, even if you ignore your eyeballs. Offensively, Jones is a safer bet, with more upside.
I totally disagree with Jones being a safer bet offensively than Prado and the Braves should not trade for Jones.
Prado put up an OPS of .800+ in 2008, 2009 , 2010 and in 2011 was right on track to post another .800+ OPS before he was injured in early June. A. Jones posted a .792 OPS in 2009 which may be his career year. Who knows…with Jones being younger he could improve, but after 4 four full time seasons in the majors, I believe what you see is what you get with Jones. Low OBP, high strike outs, not good at stealing bases for someone with his speed, avg D in CF, really good D in LF.
Prado did not injury his wrist/knee/ankle/shoulder/neck, the injury was an infection. There is no joint/bone that must heal… he only needs to regain strength in his legs. Prado has proven over the past 3-4 years he is a .300/.350/.450 player, Jones has never produced these numbers at the ML level in his career.
The safer bet on offense is that the guy who has done it before and is in the peak years of his career will do it again, not that someone who hasn’t accomplished it will finally breakthrough.
Murph
December 15th, 2011
10:52 am
Adam Jones – August 21, 2011:
.299 .337 .494 .830
Again, that’s August 21, not April 21.
ncscoots
December 15th, 2011
10:53 am
The eye test is vital.
Validity of the observation depends on the head that holds the eyeballs.
In any event, one shouldn’t dismiss metrics that seem to conflict with visual observation. Depends on the methodology behind the metric, confidence level in the actual data, one’s ability to interpret the data correctly, etc., etc.
For a lot of years, I managed to see tons of minor league baseball each season. But, even at that, I was always reluctant to form a solid opinion of a prospect until I had seen him at more than one level and over more than one season. Because you can eyeball somebody on the best day of his career or the day he got dumped by girlfriend, and neither one are likely to produce an accurate observation.
And, truly, any small set of observations are just as likely to produce the wrong evaluation as the right one. Metrics have a way of evening that out, as long as you know what you’re looking at and how to read it.
However, most of the guys like our earlier metrics-only poster tend to disdain any set of observations, regardless of sample size, as inferior to simple data. That makes them numbingly obtuse, but you can’t blame the data for that.
raleighbravefan
December 15th, 2011
10:54 am
bozz – You’re really Shaun, right?
richbrave
December 15th, 2011
10:55 am
Nicely said scoots
Venice Jim
December 15th, 2011
10:58 am
I hate to ruin everyone’s day, but Chuck James has signed with the Mets…
raleighbravefan
December 15th, 2011
10:58 am
scoots – You said it better than me. It kinda boils down to the fact that some people think they know it all, and those people tend to be young and lack experience. I may sound like an old fogy (because I am one), but young people tend to WAY undervalue experience and maturity.