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3,707 comments Add your comment
Jbailz
December 1st, 2011
1:31 pm
Over 50,000 people here in Utah without power, winds over 100 mph doing all sorts of damage. These pictures don’t even do it justice.
http://www.ksl.com/?sid=18309646&nid=460&pid=0
Keep those people in your thoughts please
RC
December 1st, 2011
1:32 pm
Well done scoots.
Lew
December 1st, 2011
1:33 pm
Hope Wayne (DS1) isn’t gone with the wind.
N8
December 1st, 2011
1:35 pm
I’m not a big WAR guy, and don’t even know where to begin looking for it. Perhaps it’s easy to find on baseball-reference’s site, which I use for most of my stats.
But out of curiousity, what was Brooks Conrad’s “WAR” in 2010? Because fromt he way I see it, he single-handedly accounted for about 4 or 5 wins himself. Yet at the same time find it hard to believe that his WAR will be rated all that high.
Which to me is why stats like that are somewhat “laughable”. Yet, I do understand the nature of the stat and it’s place in helping information starved fans to drool over.
TnBrian
December 1st, 2011
1:37 pm
Ya know, that offer by COL is actually insulting to Wren and Prado. Of course you don’t bid high to start out, but we’ve been reading that the Rockies are interested in getting Martin for weeks now. You’d think they’d get the picture by now that he will not be had for a platoon corner OF who isn’t nearly as versatile and not as good a hitter as MP.
DAP
December 1st, 2011
1:37 pm
abwright If one player has a significantly, consistently higher WAR than another player, you can say to some level of confidence that said player is the better performer.
i dont discount the stat, but i dont love it either. guess what? i dont need WAR to know something as obvious as mccann being better than molina. if one player destroys another in WAR, its probably bvious who is better, even without WAR.
RC
December 1st, 2011
1:43 pm
N8,
You do make a really good point about Conrad’s contributions not showing up in his WAR for 2010 (which according to Baseball Reference was 0.7 in 2010). However, when looking at those games that he helped the team win, it’s inaccurate to say he “won the game single-handedly”. He may have accounted for the biggest hit, or the most dramtic hit, but the rest of the team’s play is what got them into a position where his hit was that valuable. While the timing of his grand-slam against the Reds was phenomenal, the actual plate apperance result (a HR) wouldn’t receive any more weight from a stat like WAR than any other HR….it’s simply the circumstances in which the HR came that make it more impressive. But if he only had 1 runner on base for him, then the Braves might have lost the game.
So for part-time players WAR may not be the best indicator of what they contribute. But when comparing two full-time starters over a 6 year period? I think it does a pretty good job, especially if there is a significant gap.
McCan't
December 1st, 2011
1:44 pm
Let’s face it, McCann is a regressing player. He has poor vision (eye problems) and can’t throw out base stealers or tag runners out at the plate consistently. Let McCann walk in a couple years and use those millions on a budding phenom not a 10 year veteran catcher getting old.
McCan't
December 1st, 2011
1:45 pm
jBailz, is it just wind or thunderstorms too ?
Bat Masterson
December 1st, 2011
1:47 pm
Most budding phenoms get nipped.
McCan't
December 1st, 2011
1:47 pm
Enter your comments hereIf youextend McCann you’ll be right where you are now with Chipper. A former superstar getting paid superstar money as a part-time player…
Threadkiller
December 1st, 2011
1:47 pm
McCann will sign a nice extension with the Braves, that will include a nice hometown discount!
Next topic please!!
David O'Brien
December 1st, 2011
1:47 pm
Oh, $#@!, that got in the paper?!
http://deadspin.com/5864157/soon+to+be+fired-newspaper-editor-puts-a-big-old-fuck-on-page-3c
McCan't
December 1st, 2011
1:48 pm
If you extend McCann you’ll be right where you are now with Chipper. A former superstar getting paid superstar money as a part-time player…
Ease
December 1st, 2011
1:48 pm
guess what? i dont need WAR to know something as obvious as mccann being better than molina
We have a McFann for that.
Efrim
December 1st, 2011
1:48 pm
Daniel Day Lewis is awesome. “There will be Blood”, “The Last of the Mohegans” and “Gangsters in New York”. First film I watched with him was in middle school and “The Crucible” – loved the guy ever since.
Efrim
December 1st, 2011
1:49 pm
There isn’t a better catcher in baseball than Brian McCann, period.
Ease
December 1st, 2011
1:50 pm
Apparently it got in the blog too.
Efrim
December 1st, 2011
1:51 pm
Keith Law did a Top 50 players under the age of 25 years old in Major League Baseball. Jason Heyward came in at #12:
#12 Jason Heyward
Analysis: This was a lost year for Heyward, whose swing was a disaster all season, probably a hangover from the shoulder problem that first cropped up in 2010. To compensate, he altered his swing so that his first movement sends his hands — and the bat — down at the ball, producing groundballs at a scary rate so that his power doesn’t play.
His patience remained intact, and he’s still a plus defender in right. But that swing change meant he wasn’t driving balls, especially not fastballs, and dragged down his entire offensive line. Heyward is still very young — just three NL qualifiers were younger in 2011 — and if he can get his swing back to where it was at the start of 2010, he can still become an MVP candidate with high OBPs and 25-30 homers a year.
Ease
December 1st, 2011
1:51 pm
What is a “Mohegan? Is that Irish?
JoeBrave
December 1st, 2011
1:52 pm
Are there really some here still abasing a 6 time, 6 time,6time All-Star catcher, and Multiple Silver Slugger award winner, and dismissing him as futile? WOW!
Efrim
December 1st, 2011
1:53 pm
OMG. Law actually put other Braves on the list……give me a second to post. It’s a cool concept. Top 50 under 25….good stuff.
McFann O O o
December 1st, 2011
1:53 pm
Lew Of course, he was elected to the All Star game every full year he’s played and only one by the Fans. The rest were by the players – but WT(Heck)F do they know?
Fans is so dumb…
McCan’t He has poor vision (eye problems)
Oh, is that what “poor vision” means?…
McFann O O o
December 1st, 2011
1:54 pm
Ease We have a McFann for that.
True that…
Threadkiller
December 1st, 2011
1:55 pm
And Btw, McCann is currently the best catcher in baseball! and you guys seriously undervalue players!
Efrim
December 1st, 2011
1:55 pm
Here are the rest of the Braves for the list. I’ll post Top 50 in a bit…
#29 Freddie Freeman
Analysis: Freeman had a solid debut season, showing power a little earlier than expected, but lacks the impact ceiling of the corner bats further up this list. He projects to hit for solid averages with not quite enough walks and 20-25 home runs; his most likely path to stardom would be to exceed those power projections, but despite his size his current swing doesn’t foreshadow 30-homer power. He looks above-average around the bag, although the major advanced defensive metrics rated his defense poorly this year, which is likely a fluke.
#40 Tommy Hanson
Analysis: I’m not quite sure where to put Hanson since his season ended in early August due to shoulder tendinitis that was still present during a rehab outing in late September. He hasn’t had surgery or been diagnosed with anything more serious, but shoulder problems are rarely minor.
A healthy Hanson would be in the top dozen names here. He works with four pitches led by a 91-95 mph fastball and a knockout slider, along with good control if not always command. We’re just in wait and see mode here.
#47 Brandon Beachy
Analysis: Beachy’s stuff doesn’t grade out that well, but he has tremendous deception, and he’s very effective at getting hitters to swing and miss at his fastball the first couple of times through the lineup.
He pitches up in the zone, making him fly ball-prone, and he racked up high pitch counts in 2011 that kept him from going through lineups a third time. Deception guys often struggle the more they go around a league, so there’s probably some regression in his future, but an optimistic forecast on Beachy would have him as a potential No. 3 starter because of the bats he’s missed in the past, especially if he junks the slider and throws the curveball instead.
#49 Craig Kimbrel
Analysis: As good as Kimbrel was in 2011, the problem with ranking any reliever on this list is that modern reliever roles are so rigid that it’s hard for a reliever to be worth any more than Kimbrel was last year.
Kimbrel works with a plus fastball and plus slider, and if Fredi Gonzalez didn’t work him to death this year (I picture the Atlanta manager tapping his right arm in his sleep just out of habit), he could have another two or three years like 2011 in him.
#50 Mike Minor
Analysis: He’s not as good as he looked at Triple-A in 2010, but better than Atlanta seemed to think he was in 2011. Minor is probably a solid No. 4, with a chance to be a No. 3, because he’s got a good changeup, plus control, and good feel for pitching. On his best nights, he’ll show an above-average curveball or hit 93 mph with his heater, but he will pitch with solid-average velocity and will have nights where he gets by on feel and changing speeds.
McCan't
December 1st, 2011
1:55 pm
Apocalypto is a great movie.
McCan't
December 1st, 2011
1:57 pm
Heyward should be playing at AA. He ain’t a MLB starter caliber player at all.
JoeBrave
December 1st, 2011
1:58 pm
I haven’t seen it posted but just for giggles, what is Prado’s WAR in LF VS Seth Smith’s WAR?
McCan't
December 1st, 2011
1:58 pm
I’d rather have one Freddie Freeman than two Jason Heywards…
McFann O O o
December 1st, 2011
1:58 pm
Not that I want to, but it would be int’resting to see the reactions of these knuckleheads if BMac was traded and then absolutely killed it with his new team…
“McFann, you’re just simply wrong. I didn’t mean trade him this year! I meant in a couple years! You should read my posts more thoroughly before you make your attacks…”
David O'Brien
December 1st, 2011
1:59 pm
Six Braves in Keith Law’s top-50 MLB non-rookies age 25 and under: 12. Heyward, 29. Freeman, 40. Hanson, 47. Beachy, 49. Kimbrel, 50. Minor.
To me, most surprising fact wasn’t that six Braves made his list, but that Kimbrel was so low. But after I mentioned that on Twitter, several folks informed me that Law doesn’t value relievers as high as many others do.
Oh, well.
By the way, topping the list: 1. Justin Upton, 2. McCutcheon, 3. Stanton, 4. Posey, 5. Kershaw, 6. Starlin Castro.
Here’s the link, for ESPN Insiders:
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7291374/mlb-justin-upton-leads-top-50-list-mlb-players-age-25
McCan't
December 1st, 2011
2:00 pm
Kimbrel needs to control his wildness and stop walking hitters. Otherwise, he can be a dominant player.
McFann O O o
December 1st, 2011
2:01 pm
Kimbrel needs to control his wildness and stop walking hitters.
Some people are never satisfied…
Y’all do realize that athletes aren’t superhuman, right…?
McCan't
December 1st, 2011
2:01 pm
Your missing my argument. Keep McCann this year and next year then let him leave. Nobody said get rid of him this year…
Gone Viral
December 1st, 2011
2:01 pm
“Rockies really believe a career.293 hitter who can play all IF positions except SS and play both corner OF spots is only worth a platoon LF who plays most his games in a hitters park?”
This is like sticker price on a car. You make the initial offer and see what comes back. The article that recounted how the Braves came to acquire Bourn laid off the absurd asking price Houston’s now unemployed GM gave for him before knocking half off. We aren’t dealing Martin for that and maybe we aren’t dealing him at all. This could be Colorado notifying other teams through the media what they have and what they will give up.
McFann O O o
December 1st, 2011
2:02 pm
Your missing my argument.
That’s prob’ly true, but I wasn’t really looking for it…
Nobody said get rid of him this year…
Yeah, plenty of people have…
McCan't
December 1st, 2011
2:03 pm
Braves make the playoffs if Kimbrel doesn’t blow lead against Nats. Fact.
McCan't
December 1st, 2011
2:05 pm
DOB, check out Avenged Sevenfold – So Far Away song.
Gone Viral
December 1st, 2011
2:05 pm
“Braves prefer CF in a deal I’ve been told RT @camcorderhskr22: why don’t Rockies offer Stewart w Smith for Prado or is that asking too much”
Yeah, that’s what I thought. The Braves want Fowler (or prospects including Blackmon) and the Rockies are conflicted about that deal.
McFann O O o
December 1st, 2011
2:06 pm
Braves make the playoffs if Kimbrel doesn’t blow lead against Nats.
They also make the playoffs if Minor doesn’t give up 5 runs on April 6th, but, what cann you do?…
McCan't
December 1st, 2011
2:08 pm
True. And many other games can be singled out as the reason too but the last game sticks in everyone’s minds…
Efrim
December 1st, 2011
2:09 pm
1. Justin Upton
2. Andrew McCutchen
3. Mike Stanton
4. Buster Posey
5. Clayton Kershaw
6. Starlin Castro
7. Eric Hosmer
8. Stephen Strasburg
9. Madison Bumgarner
10. Brett Lawrie
11. Mike Trout
12. Jason Heyward
13. Cameron Maybin
14. Dustin Ackley
15. Desmond Jennings
16. Logan Morrison
17. Brett Anderson
18. Alex Avila
19. Pablo Sandoval
20. Michael Pineda
21. Elvis Andrus
22. Jay Bruce
23. Brandon Belt
24.Jaime Garcia
25. Mat Latos
26. Neftali Feliz
27. Wilson Ramos
28. Trevor Cahill
29. Freddie Freeman
30. Derek Holland
31. Zach Britton
32. Austin Jackson
33.Arolidis Chapman
34. Daniel Hudson
35. Justin Smoak
36. Gerardo Parra
37. Rick Porcello
38. Peter Bourjos
39. Jhoulys Chacin
40. Tommy Hanson
41. Hank Conger
42. Jeremy Hellickson
43. Colby Rasmus
44. Danny Espinosa
45. Jemile Weeks
46. Ivan Nova
47. Brandon Beachy
48. Mike Leake
49. Craig Kimbrel
50. Mike Minor
reckingball
December 1st, 2011
2:10 pm
The Braves would have made the playoffs IF almost every batter had of gotten a hit with a RISP, or almost every pitcher had not thrown one bad pitch, or if FrediG had of made one move differently, or if a whole lot of umps had not blown one key call.
McFann O O o
December 1st, 2011
2:11 pm
the last game sticks in everyone’s minds…
Yeah, but the last game wasn’t against the Nats…
McCan't
December 1st, 2011
2:11 pm
Be real… We just watched Heyward get benched for a journeyman career 28 year-old minor leaguer. Time doesn’t fix player’s swings. Staying in the batting cage and facing opposing pitchers fixes swings. Why was Heyward put on the bench and not sent to AAA Gwinnett to fix his swing ?
Efrim
December 1st, 2011
2:12 pm
I’d have Hanson right after Stras and before Bumgarner.
McCan't
December 1st, 2011
2:12 pm
It was the Astros ? I forget…
McCan't
December 1st, 2011
2:12 pm
That’s right. It was the Phillies.
McFann O O o
December 1st, 2011
2:12 pm
I think the game that really killed us started on July 26…
McCan't
December 1st, 2011
2:14 pm
Efrim, was that the steroid users list for 2010 ?
McCan't
December 1st, 2011
2:15 pm
Those first five on Efrim’s list sure became bonafide stars fast !
McCan't
December 1st, 2011
2:16 pm
I wanna smack Wren everytime I see Elvis Andrus & Neftali felix names…
Efrim
December 1st, 2011
2:18 pm
At least we finally got a Beachy evaluation from Law or someone. Need to see more of Brandon and to see if he can keep those K rates high and potentially lower the home rate – which came down as the starts progressed. He does have trouble third time through the order – which is an observation many here have pointed out.
McCan't
December 1st, 2011
2:22 pm
Colby Rasmus is the real deal. We shoulda traded for him. Local boy too.
Efrim
December 1st, 2011
2:26 pm
Kyle (Pa)
Bigger Upside? Minor, Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino?.
Klaw (2:18 PM)
Vizcaino and Teheran are the upside guys. Minor is the probability guy. Delgado is more back-end, but with higher risk than Minor.
Efrim
December 1st, 2011
2:29 pm
Giants had 4 guys in the Top 24: Posey, Bumgarner, Sandoval, Belt. Not sure who else came close to the Braves.
unbelievable
December 1st, 2011
2:31 pm
Mccant is a troll and still doesnt understand that Wren didnt trade Andrus and Feliz.
Gone Viral
December 1st, 2011
2:33 pm
But you have to admire the genius of making a play on “McCann” by turning it into McCant. I mean, if the writer of the Ernest Goes to… movies ever dies, it’s nice to know we have a worthy replacement. Or he could reboot Hee Haw!
Efrim
December 1st, 2011
2:33 pm
Braves had six in the Top 50 and no other team had five.
Keith Law hates the Braves.
IBKL
ncscoots
December 1st, 2011
2:34 pm
He does have trouble third time through the order – which is an observation many here have pointed out.
That’s less about stuff than experience. You figure out how to pitch the guy in the 7th by how you pitch to him in the 1st. If you’re a guy with three plus-plus pitches, you can care a little less about setting up for third-time-through. A guy such as Beachy, though, has to connive a little bit.
‘Course, not going 3-2 on every other hitter, and showing fewer pitches to hitters the first couple of times through, that would help a little, too.
JoeBrave
December 1st, 2011
2:35 pm
Now why would anyone want to SLAP Frank Wren when they see the names of E.Andrus, and Feliz???? Frank Wren didn’t have a damn thing to do with that trade! John Schuerholtz was the man on that deal! How bout lay off Wren! he has done a damn fine job as GM, at least the man isn’t Ed frekin Wade!
Efrim
December 1st, 2011
2:37 pm
Good point, scoots. Also, I like the addition of Beachy’s slider. He may go to it too much, but it’s friggin working. Still need more data from Brandon…..like pretty much every player.
Efrim
December 1st, 2011
2:39 pm
A healthy Hanson is definitely in the Top 12, as Keith said. Hopefully he shuts everyone up and comes out with 200 innings+. And a +9 K/9. -3 BB/9.
Arkansas Transplant
December 1st, 2011
2:39 pm
We’d have 7 on that list if we trade for Austin Jackson.
Hillbilly
December 1st, 2011
2:40 pm
I’m back, a-holes, and my value will never be higher. Don’t call me an innings-eater, no, no… I’m in the best shape of my life. Who wants some of this drivel? Huh?
Efrim
December 1st, 2011
2:40 pm
opposing gms think #cubs will trade garza. makes sense. rebuilding situation. aggressive front office. – Jon Heyman
Makes sense. I’d trade Marmol and Marshall if the price was right too. They have a long way to go there. And the NL Central is a lot better than the AL Central at the top, imo.
JoeBrave
December 1st, 2011
2:41 pm
Efrim
December 1st, 2011
2:39 pm
A healthy Hanson is definitely in the Top 12, as Keith said. Hopefully he shuts everyone up and comes out with 200 innings+. And a +9 K/9. -3 BB/9.
Efrim, that would be nice! but rationale says he won’t maybe 170 ip 13 to 14 wins, that delivery is going to ruin his shoulder.
Efrim
December 1st, 2011
2:44 pm
He’s a lefty and doesn’t have pop, but I was always a big Gerardo Parra fan. Great defender in Zona.
JoeBrave
December 1st, 2011
2:44 pm
My guess on Wren slappin, I would imagine Ol Wren would trade your ass to Houston if any slap attempts occured
Tomas
December 1st, 2011
2:48 pm
Felix Hernandez is 25 why wasn’t he on the list
raleighbravefan
December 1st, 2011
2:51 pm
McCan’t – You might want to quit talking now…every comment highlights your ignorance.
As even JoeBrave knows, Wren had NOTHING to do with the Tex trade, you moron. It was JS.
Question for you…How close would we have been to sniffing the post season if Kimbrel had not had 46 SAVES????
Efrim
December 1st, 2011
2:53 pm
Most surprising thing to notice on Law’s list:
One(1) New York Yankee, New York Met, Philadelphia Phillie, Boston Red Sox player – #48 Ivan Nova
Efrim
December 1st, 2011
2:54 pm
Felix Hernandez is 25 why wasn’t he on the list
Read the directions.
N8
December 1st, 2011
2:55 pm
“Braves make the playoffs if Kimbrel doesn’t blow lead against Nats. Fact.”
Braves are nowhere even close to sniffing the playoffs for Kimbrel to have a chance at “blowing” it in that last game without what Kimbrel did for the majority of the season. Fact.
Efrim
December 1st, 2011
2:55 pm
Although I guess it isn’t that surprising given how much they spend on free agents and how little room they give for younger players…
Murph
December 1st, 2011
2:57 pm
I’m back, a-holes, and my value will never be higher.
Bad news bub, you just got traded to the Royals for Myers and Crow.
Enjoy the BBQ, though!
CB
December 1st, 2011
2:59 pm
Hillbilly,good to see you back. Where you been, rooting for those Hogs?
JoeBrave
December 1st, 2011
3:00 pm
Add Fairburn Ga to my list of least favorite places to hold inspections, some people, if you have a business in FARTburn, give your actual physical address, we can’t find you at your PO Box or mailing address … good grief!
N8
December 1st, 2011
3:02 pm
RC, yeah…. saying “single-handedly” might be a little over the top. Since in order for Conrad to hit that GS in that huge comeback game, the rest of the team had to do some good things to in that 9th inning.
But you got the point obviously. I wasn’t trying to ruffle any feathers. Was just curious what his WAR numbers were. Because sometimes the raw numbers don’t tell the whole story.
In fact, Mac is a great example of that. I posted last night how his overall offensive numbers really aren’t that spectacular compared to all position players, but obviously amongst the best (if not the best) of all catchers.
But that’s not to underestimate what he means to the Braves. If you watch Braves games, he’s quite valuble. Just still not sold on giving him the “Chipper Jones” contract and centering the offense around him for that kind of money, with the budget we have. Not saying I’d be pissed or freaked out about it.
It’s just not as much of a “no-brainer” for me as everybody seems to think it should be.
RC
December 1st, 2011
3:09 pm
N8,
I do get your point. And I don’t stick too closely to WAR in many situations, but if the numbers are that dramatic I feel like it says something.
Also worth noting that WAR does give Mac extra credit for being a catcher, since his wins above replacement are compared to the hypothetical “replacement catcher”.
Ease
December 1st, 2011
3:10 pm
BoogSciambi Jon Sciambi
what’s Beltran gonna get? wouldn’t Atlanta be a good fit for LF?
Ease
December 1st, 2011
3:11 pm
DKnobler DKnobler
Rockies still interested in Braves’ Prado. Braves like Seth Smith, but asked for top prospect Arenado, too. That’s not happening.
JoeBrave
December 1st, 2011
3:13 pm
Someone tell the Rox to go fly a kite! no way Seth Smiff gets Prado all he byself!
NickB
December 1st, 2011
3:16 pm
It should be a no brainer… (and IMO I don’t think the goal of the team is to center the offense on Mac, I think that they are planning on a return to form from Heyward which would make him the obvious offensive focus). But Mac’s positional value is one of the highest in all of baseball. There’s just so few catchers that can throw a 4+ WAR at you every season…. You just have to keep it around.
N8
December 1st, 2011
3:16 pm
“Also worth noting that WAR does give Mac extra credit for being a catcher, since his wins above replacement are compared to the hypothetical “replacement catcher”.”
See, that’s where it gets tricky and is completely a relative term to each team.
First off. If Mac were to be replaced in 2014 with Bethancourt and the numbers could be reasonably replaced (especially at the dollar value of a huge contract vs. a rookie salary), and then it allowe Wren (or whoever the GM is then) to go get a huge bat at another position, I fail to see how that would be a losing scenario.
On the flip side, don’t you specifically have to look at the ACTUAL replacement to determine what the real WAR is for that player on THAT team?
Example. We’ll again go with Mac and Ross.
Ross is generally thought of as the “best backup catcher” in baseball. In small bursts and limited playing time, he actually does a nice job of “replacing” Mac when not playing.
But if the Braves only backup catcher was JC Boscan? Wouldn’t that make Mac’s WAR value higher?
Another prime example is Michael Bourn.
Who the hell is his backup? We don’t even know. But clearly he is LIGHT YEARS better than anybody currently on the roster who might “replace” him at some point.
Like I said. The stat is so vague and spread out from what I gather, that it doesn’t actually take into consideration the actual backups on said players team.
Or does it and I just don’t get it?
ME
December 1st, 2011
3:18 pm
If we dont keep Brian around for the long haul i might have to stop watching my Braves…we have a HORRIBLE habit of getting rid of our stud guys and hoping to fill in the hole, but Big Mac is too important to this team to even consider losing…
Arkansas Transplant
December 1st, 2011
3:20 pm
Bad news bub, you just got traded to the Royals for Myers and Crow.
Great idea! where did that come from?
Efrim
December 1st, 2011
3:21 pm
Rockies still interested in Braves’ Prado. Braves like Seth Smith, but asked for top prospect Arenado, too. That’s not happening.
Hah! Good for Wren. He can dream.
N8
December 1st, 2011
3:22 pm
NickB, I totally agree with you. Which is why I’m not in the “trade Mac” camp. The dude is under our control for 2 more seasons.
What if he’s signed to an extention, and his production drops of big time even if due to injury (Chipper ring any bells here?), and meanwhile Bethancourt is ready to play?
Then what?
My point is nothing more than don’t jump the gun on an extention. ZERO reason whatsoever to hurry on it. Unless, like I said last night, that Mac is willing to defer payments over time, or backload the contract, thus allowing Wren some more cash this winter and next to use on getting Mac some help in the lineup.
Then in terms of a short-term goal to win the WS, it’s a great idea. Of course until we’re paying 16 million per year for a guy not earning his check if his production falls off (D-Lowe comes to mind).
Best case scenario is Mac is locked up long term. His production remains and Bethancourt nets us a big time player, Liberty Media ups payroll and Mac and his new lineup buddies tear up the league for the next 4-5 years. The worst case scenario is much uglier.
We’ll see.
Ward
December 1st, 2011
3:23 pm
Hello everyone! Murph funny Santa Song……….Great humor. Mac, will be a Brave for ever. Until he can hit no more,and as long as he hits? Mac will stay a Brave. I wonder if the Mac haters,could be Phillie Fans,Met Fans,or people who are just simple minded?
N8
December 1st, 2011
3:23 pm
“we have a HORRIBLE habit of getting rid of our stud guys and hoping to fill in the hole, but Big Mac is too important to this team to even consider losing”
Name one.
RC
December 1st, 2011
3:26 pm
N8,
You are right that if they measured the “true WAR”, it would be a different scale for each team, based on how good the backup is. What is done for the purposes of the statistic is to come up with a generic, fake “replacement player”, and measure the value of each player at a position against that made-up player. I don’t know the exact method by which the stats for this made up player are derived, but I think it’s got something to do with the average performance of all players at the position with standard deviation applied in some manner. The link I posted earlier has the description of how all that is done.
So like you said, no stat can tell you the “true” WAR of a player, but this one gives a decent approximation based upon the usable data available.
RC
December 1st, 2011
3:28 pm
“we have a HORRIBLE habit of getting rid of our stud guys and hoping to fill in the hole, but Big Mac is too important to this team to even consider losing”
Name one.
Jeff Francoeur?
Ward
December 1st, 2011
3:28 pm
N8- As I Braves Fan,Management does seem to play musical chairs with our favorite players.Let’s all focuse on LF,and who’s playing SS?
RC
December 1st, 2011
3:29 pm
N8- As I Braves Fan,Management does seem to play musical chairs with our favorite players.Let’s all focuse on LF,and who’s playing SS? – Ward
Ward, would you call Alex Gonzalez or whoever played LF before Prado one of your “favorite players”?
BravePack
December 1st, 2011
3:32 pm
I can see Wren is asking for top prospects so unless some team overpays I don’t see a deal happening, which he has said that he doesn’t need to trade JJ or Prado. Sounds like a card game of who will fold 1st? I don’t think Wren will but I guess we’ll wait and see.
Ward
December 1st, 2011
3:35 pm
RC- Agon no not a favorite.Prado undecided. Mac a favorite,Bourn a favorite,Freeman a favorite, Chipper always a favorite. Heyward is slowly growing on to be a favorite.I don’t recall a good LF since my favorite Ronnie Gant Left Left the Braves.
N8
December 1st, 2011
3:36 pm
Exactly RC. Maybe, over time somebody could say Yunel was the “one that got away”. And sadly enough as much as Jeff had worn out his welcome in Atlanta, he still would be better than many of the guys we’ve trotted out in the outfield since he left.
But I can’t think of one “stud guy” in the last decade, or at least since Wren has been the GM, that have let go. Literally everybody that’s been traded or allowed to walk has been replaced with somebody that has equaled or exceeded what they did before them.
Like I said. Perhaps that one guy is Yunel. But name me another one. Unless he’s counting Tex? But that’s just silly. He wasn’t “our stud guy”. He was a rental. Period.
Also RC, thanks for the chat on WAR, and clearing up some details. I like it even less now.
RC
December 1st, 2011
3:36 pm
It seems like Wren is in a good position with Prado/Jurrjens, since we aren’t seeking a particular player, simply value. Not needing to trade either player helps, but the Braves are simply seeking “top prospects, preferably CF” while the Rockie are seeking “Martin Prado”.
We can get top prospects elsewhere….they can’t get Martin Prado anywhere else.