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2,555 comments Add your comment
rugburn
November 1st, 2011
4:34 pm
AT… maybe he should play every exhibition game from day one. some of these guys come in to st and say they need 30-50 at bats to be ready. uggla must need 250.
fred
November 1st, 2011
4:36 pm
rugburn..lol
CB
November 1st, 2011
4:36 pm
fred,some of us might agree with your thoughts. Just not the forum for it.
Arkansas Transplant
November 1st, 2011
4:36 pm
Do you think that Jesus Montero could play LF? If so, we just happen to have what the Yankees want… pitching. If he could play the outfield.. I’d be willing to move JJ in a deal to pull that one off as well.
Efrim
November 1st, 2011
4:38 pm
The day Greg Maddux signed with Atlanta, his former GM stated in plain terms that we was NOT a #1 starter. That’s a blueprint example of how sloppy the logic is as well as how messed up draft philosophies have been. If you tell one kid that they can’t miss and another one that they can’t make it, you have given an advantage to the former by ceding them a higher ceiling. You have motivated the latter.
Who is telling these kids this? I sure hope we aren’t. Those discussions are for internal meetings and GM talk with one another. And for fans on this board to pair value with a players projection and see if a trade makes sense or if you’d give up prospect A for major league player B. Front office folk use this language, Gone Viral.
P-Town Brave ©
November 1st, 2011
4:38 pm
AT-
Will never happen….Montero is their golden boy….
If they wouldn’t give him up (w/ others) for Cliff Lee, the Braves wont have anything to give the Yankees
Arkansas Transplant
November 1st, 2011
4:38 pm
rugburn, What irrated me about Uggla when he first signed that huge contract with us was what he said.. he stated that he hoped the fans would stay with him because he was a slow starter. Sometimes you mental make-up will determine your physical output.
rugburn
November 1st, 2011
4:39 pm
melky and frenchy would have put us in the world series this year if we had them instead of prado and heyward. tell me that isn’t a scary thought.
P-Town Brave ©
November 1st, 2011
4:39 pm
Lemke-
THAT is what frightens me, because even w/ our decent farm system, I still cringe when I read stuff like that because the good teams ALWAYS add a significant piece from the outside that helps them win it all….
Lance Berkman anyone…
Arkansas Transplant
November 1st, 2011
4:40 pm
P-T, it still may be worth a look.. you never know until you ask. As far as what they won’t do in the past doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t do in the present given they were sent home early in the playoffs.
Arkansas Transplant
November 1st, 2011
4:41 pm
P-T, you aren’t allowed to bring up Berkman.
rugburn
November 1st, 2011
4:41 pm
AT… at least uggla hustles. i hate watching all of our “stars” trot to first. maybe a hypnotist could change his pattern of thinking
RC
November 1st, 2011
4:42 pm
The day Greg Maddux signed with Atlanta, his former GM stated in plain terms that we was NOT a #1 starter.
This just reeks of BS. The day Greg Maddux signed with Atlanta he was the reigning NL Cy Young winner….who would publicly say that a reigning Cy Young winner wasn’t a #1 pitcher???
fred
November 1st, 2011
4:43 pm
Ok CB–There is alot on here that don’t fit the forum…try running a baseball program without $$$$$
CB
November 1st, 2011
4:44 pm
AT,who says you can’t bring up Lance Berkman? Most of us would agree you were right.
P-Town Brave ©
November 1st, 2011
4:46 pm
Just read that Bethancourt just hit ANOTHER HR just a few min ago….
P-Town Brave ©
November 1st, 2011
4:47 pm
….AND Terdo just went deep as well….
Braves ’specs are ROLLIN in the AFL
Arkansas Transplant
November 1st, 2011
4:48 pm
Another option for a good bench guy might be to trade for Jeff Keppinger. If he’s available.
Thanks CB, but it always seems to touch a nerve sometimes when that name is brought up.
P-Town Brave ©
November 1st, 2011
4:51 pm
Projected Salaries for Arbitration Players were just released through MLBTR….and while some may not like MLBTR, they’re usually quite accurate.
Braves:
Bourn – $7.3M
Jurrjens – $5.1M
Prado – $4.4M
O’Flaherty – $2.6M
Moylan – $2M
I would be looking to non tender Pete and try to sign him to a 2 yr deal for a bit less on the front end and then at that salary, I would definitely be looking for takers for JJ.
Snotboogie
November 1st, 2011
4:51 pm
Thanks CB, but it always seems to touch a nerve sometimes when that name is brought up.
Ummmm. No. It doesnt.
P-Town Brave ©
November 1st, 2011
4:53 pm
I wish Ethier wasn’t LH, I’d do a JJ for Ethier swap in a heartbeat….
BUT we already have too many lefties.
P-Town Brave ©
November 1st, 2011
4:54 pm
AT-
Keppinger is arb eligible and listed ~ 2.7M so its possible but I would say unlikely that the Giants non tender him
Arkansas Transplant
November 1st, 2011
4:56 pm
Sometimes Snot, sometimes.
Gone Viral
November 1st, 2011
4:56 pm
“I mainly disagree with your feeling of “I want players that want to be Braves”.”
And I know this, which is why I specifically mentioned the Van Poppel vs. Chipper thing to you yesterday, something you never addressed. Van Poppel had the higher ceiling while Chipper was viewed as the desperation fallback pick. How has that worked out for the Braves?
That statement goes beyond the draft as well. Look at players like Kenny Lofton who are extraordinarily gifted yet who didn’t want to be in Atlanta. How did he play for us? We couldn’t get wait to get rid of him. Compare that to Brian Jordan, who actually cursed out JS when he got the call that he had been traded to LA because he cared so much about being an Atlanta Brave. Even a jerk like Bobby Bonilla had a fine season for us when everyone was sure he was washed up because he had always wanted to play for Bobby Cox and be a Brave. Motivation matters in all aspects of life. Why would the MLB draft of all things be a glaring exception to fundamental human behavior?
“Signability and probability of becoming a major leaguer can be a part of a strategy – but the Braves have taken it too far the last three drafts in my opinion.
I know that you were here for the 2009 draft. Wasn’t it Alex White you wanted the Braves to take or were you one of the Tyler Matzek fans? I guess what I don’t understand is why you are so sure that the Braves have settled with each pick. The team has been (unusually) honest about our decisions, which is why we know about Robert Stephenson. If we had taken him, would you be as critical? It seems as if the college game has exploded in development over the past 10 years yet if we don’t draft high school kids at the top of the draft, that is when our fans sound the most frustrated.
To a larger point, I see what Wren tried to accomplish once he got the keys to the team. Our pitching was not good, which is what led to the Lowe and KK signings in the first place as well as the Javier Vazquez trade, the one everyone despised at the time, and the JJ for Edgar trade, the one I personally despised at the time because solid shortstops are so hard to find. Since he focused so much on building depth, we wound up with a shortfall in terms of position prospects, which means that everything that has happened over the past three years of drafts has been largely predictable.
If we were going to criticize a draft, the top of 2008 is where our worst mistakes were made as we misread DeVall’s personality, Stovall has been a disappointment and Spruill had been mercurial prior to now. If not for Kimbrell, the top eight picks in that draft would all seem questionable prior to this year when Adam Milligan also ascended a bit. I don’t understand why that one gets a pass just because the perception is that we spent some money on it.
“And no, I’m not one of the people on here who equate “if OBP was so important, why do they put it on the scoreboard”. There are many here who think that comment was the biggest joke a player has said in the past two decades. I’m one of them – I value OBP perhaps as the most important stat in baseball – because making outs – sucks.”
Yes, I know that you are one of the people here who fully appreciates the imperative of not getting out, the most basic of concepts that I am always mystified when people overlook.
P-Town Brave ©
November 1st, 2011
4:56 pm
So…
How much do you think the Braves would have to give up for arb eligible OF Adam Jones?
richbrave
November 1st, 2011
4:56 pm
FALL BALL
ARIZONA
News from out west. Game in the bottom of the fourth.
TERDO’s yard-shot [2] was with 2-out. I like it! Drives in his 8th in fall ball. JOEY is 1-2.
BETHANCOURT [.362 BA] slams his fourth and eleventh RBI. CHRISTIAN is 2-2.
CUNNINGHAM [.313 BA] is 0-1 with a BB so far.
Gone Viral
November 1st, 2011
4:58 pm
“Who is telling these kids this?”
In the internet era? Everyone.
Arkansas Transplant
November 1st, 2011
4:59 pm
P-T, I’d imagine it would take quite a bit given the depth of prospects, or lack there of, that the O’s have available to replace him.
RC
November 1st, 2011
5:00 pm
How much do you think the Braves would have to give up for arb eligible OF Adam Jones?
One of the “Big Four” pitchers, plus a couple of other prospects. Seems like a pretty unlikely trade, especially since we don’t need a CF (meaning that Jones has more value to other teams).
Gone Viral
November 1st, 2011
5:02 pm
“who would publicly say that a reigning Cy Young winner wasn’t a #1 pitcher???”
Larry Himes. He also said that he had the started he needed to replace Maddux in Jose Guzman. Be honest. Do you know who Jose Guzman is?
Skeezix
November 1st, 2011
5:05 pm
If Gilmartin pitches anything like Steve Avery, I can’t wait to watch him.
RC
November 1st, 2011
5:06 pm
Not the greatest source, but Wikipedia says, “After he received his offer from the Braves, he contacted Himes to see if Himes would match the offer. Himes declined, stating that he spent Maddux’s money on Randy Myers, José Guzmán, Dan Plesac and Candy Maldonado.”
Nowhere can I find a quote from Himes where he says that Maddux isn’t a #1 starter though.
Arkansas Transplant
November 1st, 2011
5:07 pm
Yes, I remember Jose Guzman.
richbrave
November 1st, 2011
5:07 pm
I’m expecting to see him in LYNCHBURG this upcoming……
richbrave
November 1st, 2011
5:09 pm
RC
November 1st, 2011
5:09 pm
More on Himes/Maddux:
http://www.baseballyarn.com/u92tmf3.htm
Still no quote suggesting he didn’t view Maddux as a #1. In fact, considering he offered him the highest contract in history for a pitcher at the time, I’d think the opposite is evidenced here.
richbrave
November 1st, 2011
5:12 pm
nm98
MiaBchBravesFan
November 1st, 2011
5:12 pm
Hudson is Hudson, Beachy has pitched extremely well when healthy, Medlen was a bulldog until his elbow gave out, Minor can only get better, and Lowe was traded to give Tehran, Delgado, or both, a shot to make the rotation. Gilmartin is the new Minor, waiting in the wings should one of the starters falter.
If anyone thinks that 2012 is the year, and that with a rotation of Hudson, JJ, Hanson, Beachy, and Minor the Braves will win if they obtain a LF power bat sadly underestimates the construct of this team. This team right now has more problems and question marks than the federal gonvernment. What we do have is lots of young pitching and a couple of young positional players that need to be given a chance in 2012 to show their wares. When Chipper’s contract and Lowe’s debt is off the books for 2013, real moves can be made.
The team has too many needs and question marks to have them all addressed this off-season. At some point, you have to rebuild. 2012 is the logical year for that to happen.
Josh Willingham
November 1st, 2011
5:15 pm
Dave: Me sign with the Braves? I don’t want to play with that bunch of chokers.
Efrim
November 1st, 2011
5:15 pm
And I know this, which is why I specifically mentioned the Van Poppel vs. Chipper thing to you yesterday, something you never addressed. Van Poppel had the higher ceiling while Chipper was viewed as the desperation fallback pick. How has that worked out for the Braves?
I didn’t address it because you’re using one example to cloud the entire conversation. It’s absurd to think that this one example means that signable, “want to be Braves” 18-20 year olds should be the priority over ability and P-R-O-J-E-C-T-I-O-N.
That statement goes beyond the draft as well. Look at players like Kenny Lofton who are extraordinarily gifted yet who didn’t want to be in Atlanta. How did he play for us?
I think the issue I have is that you continually bring up these examples of past Braves successes and failures and think that because A happened, it means B WILL occur. I have said often that you need to have some signable, high floor type players in your system for depth purposes. You have always said that that’s ALL YOU WANT in this system and that it’s the route that every Braves draft should go. I disagree and believe that early selections should be made with the hope that the player will become an absolute star/above average regular. It’s hard for us to talk about if you don’t believe in projection and ceiling.
If we were going to criticize a draft, the top of 2008 is where our worst mistakes were made as we misread DeVall’s personality, Stovall has been a disappointment and Spruill had been mercurial prior to now. If not for Kimbrell, the top eight picks in that draft would all seem questionable prior to this year when Adam Milligan also ascended a bit. I don’t understand why that one gets a pass just because the perception is that we spent some money on it.
Are you serious?!?!?!? 2nd rounder Zeke Spruill is still considered to be a solid part of the team’s minor league pitching depth and might be the best starting pitching prospect behind 1st rounder Sean Gilmartin and the three latin arms. 7th and 8th rounders Brett Oberholtzer and Paul Clemens are the reason that we acquired Michael Bourn this season. Sole reason,Gone Viral. J.J. Hoover has had a very good minor league career as a starter and reliever. Adam Milligan has been very good when on the field and I don’t think you can fault him for that. Hopefully he can stay healthy. And of course……Craig Kimbrel just had the best year for a relief pitcher in the entire major leagues. Yes, DeVall and Stovall worked out poorly – partly because DeVall had elbow troubles from the day he was drafted and Stovall’s mechanis were terrible from the get go leading to awful control issues.
Let’s take a look at 2009, after Mike Minor, we have a 25 year old converted center field prospect who has looked at best like a utility player. David Hale is 24 years old and hasn’t reached AA ball. Thomas Berryhill is not in the organization any longer.
Robby Hefflinger
Kyle Rose
Matthew Weaver
Aaron Northcraft
Chris Masters
Chris Lovett
Jordan Kreke
Cory Harrilchak
I mean, will any of the above even become major leaguers?!?!? That is 2009’s crop, the worst draft the Atlanta Braves have had recently. And it looks even worse considering our position. Sure, Mike Minor was a good pick up – he had better of been for the #7 overall selection. I mean, give me a break.
As to Alex White and Tyler Matzek, I raise you a Shelby Miller, Mike Trout, Drew Storen etc. And I’d rather have Zach Wheeler in the minors right now than Mike Minor in the majors.
Arkansas Transplant
November 1st, 2011
5:15 pm
MiaBchBravesFan, you mean much like the way everyone viewed the Cards after they lost Wainwright?
Efrim
November 1st, 2011
5:17 pm
In the internet era? Everyone.
Ah, yes. Show me some evidence of a kid reading it and getting better because of it. But just don’t show me one player. I’d like to see a truckload, because you’re making the point evergreen, and I think that’s a bunch of horse sh!t.
Gone Viral
November 1st, 2011
5:17 pm
“I’d think the opposite is evidenced here.”
I’m unclear what you’re arguing here but yes, Larry Himes did in fact say that Mike Morgan was the ace of the staff, not Greg Maddux. I’ve mentioned the comment several times here because I still see red every time I think about him saying it.
rugburn
November 1st, 2011
5:17 pm
no guarantee that chipper won’t be there in 2013. doesn’t he have a clause to the effect that if he plays in 120+ games in 2012 he re-ups for 2013? not sure of the wording, just something i read on these blogs.
Snotboogie
November 1st, 2011
5:19 pm
Minor can only get better
That’s just not true. It doesnt take much for him to get worse.
kreedham
November 1st, 2011
5:19 pm
USA today lists the top 50 free agents available (none of the Braves) and who they “should” end up with. Has Phillies losing Ibanez, Madsen and Oswalt keeping Rollins. Has Braves getting Reyes! If you’d promise he’d stay healthy I’d go with that!
Winter of George
November 1st, 2011
5:19 pm
Man, are they cleaning house! We got suckered in the McLouth deal. Maybe MLB ought to reconsider having to put a player from every team on an all-star roster. Only reason McLouth was an all star in Pittsburgh. We may have gotten their best player at time. But they were a horrible team and didn’t mean much being their best player.
Gone Viral
November 1st, 2011
5:20 pm
“Show me some evidence of a kid reading it and getting better because of it.”
Show you some evidence of a kid reading criticism and working harder to improve? Seriously?
RC
November 1st, 2011
5:23 pm
Gone Viral,
I’m just looking for any evidence of that quote, because I find it really hard to believe that any GM would say that in the context you mentioned. If you can point me to where you got the quote, I’d be happy to believe it. I did find a Chicago Tribune article where Morgan is referred to as the Cubs “new ace”, once Maddux left.
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1993-04-06/sports/9304060287_1_greg-maddux-mike-morgan-ace
CB
November 1st, 2011
5:24 pm
kreedham,did they say where the money is going to come from for Reyes?
Bibi
November 1st, 2011
5:25 pm
Hey Dave: Would you ask Danny why he isn’t answering my phone calls anymore?
rugburn
November 1st, 2011
5:26 pm
georgia lotto
CB
November 1st, 2011
5:27 pm
No kidding,rugburn.
Gone Viral
November 1st, 2011
5:30 pm
RC, as hard to believe as the matter is, yes it happened. If you are too young to remember it, I fully understand your skepticism. If you are interested enough to keep googling, I am sure you will find it. I found a baseball prospectus person joking about it in 2009 on my first attempt: http://dev.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8910
Shocking as the statement is — and I have mentioned before here that I believe it’s the dumbest comment I have ever read from a MLB GM — he said it.
Efrim
November 1st, 2011
5:30 pm
Show you some evidence of a kid reading criticism and working harder to improve? Seriously?
Uh, no. I want to see Mike Minor’s reaction to being called a starter with mid-rotation upside, and him being so heated about it that he took a magic pill and increased his velocity or bettered his slider. These guys aren’t robots, but there are a TON of examples of kids who are told they are “this” and turned out to be “just that”. Motivation can only do so much, Gone Viral. These kids aren’t Incredible Hulks. They have limitations, ceilings, floors. Whether or not I tell them to their face ain’t going to make much of any difference for most all players.
Gone Viral
November 1st, 2011
5:31 pm
Heh, and also linked at that same google result is this board from 2009:
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2009/12/09/in-frigid-indy-braves-look-to-deal-pitcher-or-two/?cp=14
My comment is at 1:16 AM. Yes, this has bugged me for 20 years.
Gone Viral
November 1st, 2011
5:34 pm
“him being so heated about it that he took a magic pill and increased his velocity or bettered his slider. ”
I am following you less and less as this goes further along. You believe it’s just coincidence that he increased his velocity and bettered his slider? The developmental personnel with Atlanta and he himself get no credit for this? As a polite reminder, you are the one arguing that projection works better. Shouldn’t he have been projected to have these things happen?
Efrim
November 1st, 2011
5:34 pm
Also, with regard to Mike Minor, great K rates this early in his career, but LHB have hit .306/.349/.469 off of him in 107 plate appearances, and RHB have hit 292/.349/.469 in 439 plate appearances. Small samples, and his ERA+ is 82 through 123 major league innings, so let’s not act like he’s shaken the mid-rotation upside label just yet.
Cleveland Indians
November 1st, 2011
5:36 pm
Thanks Atlanta! It was bad enough that you beat us in the 1995 WS. Now you have to make things worse by dumping Lowe on us.
Efrim
November 1st, 2011
5:38 pm
Also, according to Fangraphs, his average velocity on his fastball has been 91.1 MPH. Not like his velo jumped to levels that should shock and astound. I believe he was 89-91 in college, so perhaps his velo has increased ever slow slightly.
Efrim
November 1st, 2011
5:40 pm
You believe it’s just coincidence that he increased his velocity and bettered his slider?
I don’t think motivation has as much to do with it as you say it does. Guys have limitations, ceilings, floors, etc.
Murph
November 1st, 2011
5:41 pm
I want to see Mike Minor’s reaction to being called a starter with mid-rotation upside
His reaction would be something like this:
“Mid-rotation… what?”
MiaBchBravesFan
November 1st, 2011
5:46 pm
AK Transplant: I am trying to follow your comparison to no avail. The Cardinals were fortuitous beneficiaries of playing in a weak division beneath the Brewers, as well as benefitting from a crappy West, and, of course, the Braves and their choke for the ages.
The reason I am struggling to follow your logic is that is you have a lineup with Pujols, Holliday, and a resurgent Berkman, and a true # 1 starter in Carpenter. If the Braves and Cards were even on September 1st, I’ll take those four against any best four the Braves have to offer, and the Braves will get pounded into the ground. But I think everyone in the room knows that I am stating the obvious.
If not, refer to September, 2011 for clarification. I just do not get your point. The fact that pundits wrote off the Cards in June speaks to nothing except their ignorance. That’s why they look better as “experts” when September 30th arrives and they have something valid and meaningful to say as sportswriters.
Gone Viral
November 1st, 2011
5:52 pm
“I didn’t address it because you’re using one example to cloud the entire conversation. It’s absurd to think that this one example means that signable, “want to be Braves” 18-20 year olds should be the priority”
We have four players on the team in JJ, Chipper, Huddy and McCann who grew up Braves fans who are now among our six or seven best players. It should not be THE priority, but it should be ONE of the priorities.
“ou have always said that that’s ALL YOU WANT in this system and that it’s the route that every Braves draft should go. ”
Clarifying: That is absolutely what I prefer and as I just said, I do believe it should be on the checklist for consideration. If you believe, however, that I only want prospects who fit the bill in this manner, something I have said in the past has misled you as I realize that is not functionally practical. If I have caused you to read too much into that in the past, I apologize and it probably indicates we are not as diametrically opposed as you might have believed earlier today when you made that post.
“It’s hard for us to talk about if you don’t believe in projection and ceiling.”
What I believe is that projection and ceiling are baseline measures that fail exponentially more often than they succeed. And that has been proven empirically on an annual basis. Were this not the case, teams would have more than three or four players from the draft make the majors. As I said the day I read Moneyball, Billy Beane is absolutely right about the draft. It’s an exercise in imprecision and illogical decision making.
“Are you serious?!?!?!?”
Serious and factually accurate. Re-read what I posted and now look at your reply. I was discussing the top of the draft, which includes DeVall, Stovall, Spruill, Schlehuber, Thompson, Kimbrel, Clemens and Milligan. I specifically said “If not for Kimbrell, the top eight picks in that draft would all seem questionable prior to this year when Adam Milligan also ascended a bit.” Your reply centers upon Oberholtzer and Hoover, who were not included in the discussion and Spruill and Milligan, whose shaky 2010 performances I referenced when I said “prior to this year”. You moved the goalposts away from that for reasons known only to you. Everything I said stands.
To a larger point, we obviously had built our board in a way where we *projected* our *ceiling* higher on the earlier picks, which is why we drafted them first. It was only when the *performances* of all players came into play that we saw the lower rated arms were better. See what I did there?
“As to Alex White and Tyler Matzek, I raise you a Shelby Miller, Mike Trout, Drew Storen etc. And I’d rather have Zach Wheeler in the minors right now than Mike Minor in the majors.”
As for this, I didn’t ask you to name other prospects from the 2009 draft that scouts like now. What I asked you in particular is who you were championing on the day of the draft. You only get one pick, just like the Braves. Who was your guy? I just found out in the other discussion you can probably google it if you don’t remember.
Gone Viral
November 1st, 2011
5:55 pm
“I don’t think motivation has as much to do with it as you say it does.”
Then what I would respectfully say is that we don’t disagree about scouting inasmuch as we disagree about basic human behaviors.
Gone Viral
November 1st, 2011
5:57 pm
“so let’s not act like he’s shaken the mid-rotation upside label just yet”
If you believe in the value of such labels, which as we discussed yesterday…
MIBravesFan
November 1st, 2011
6:03 pm
Thanks for the blog, DOB. Interesting reading, as always.
Efrim
November 1st, 2011
6:04 pm
You only get one pick, just like the Braves. Who was your guy? I just found out in the other discussion you can probably google it if you don’t remember.
I liked Tyler Matzek a lot, also liked Matt Purke. Liked Shelby Miller too.
David O'Brien
November 1st, 2011
6:10 pm
Wrote a Christian Bethancourt feature story that should be posted in a little while on our Braves site.
Efrim
November 1st, 2011
6:12 pm
arifying: That is absolutely what I prefer and as I just said, I do believe it should be on the checklist for consideration. If you believe, however, that I only want prospects who fit the bill in this manner, something I have said in the past has misled you as I realize that is not functionally practical. If I have caused you to read too much into that in the past, I apologize and it probably indicates we are not as diametrically opposed as you might have believed earlier today when you made that post.
I’ve seen you write the following “I want players that want to be Braves” and that signability, and probability of making the majors should be at the top of the priority list. In something like that draft that is such a crapshoot, take some risks.
Serious and factually accurate. Re-read what I posted and now look at your reply. I was discussing the top of the draft, which includes DeVall, Stovall, Spruill, Schlehuber, Thompson, Kimbrel, Clemens and Milligan. I specifically said “If not for Kimbrell, the top eight picks in that draft would all seem questionable prior to this year when Adam Milligan also ascended a bit.” Your reply centers upon Oberholtzer and Hoover, who were not included in the discussion and Spruill and Milligan, whose shaky 2010 performances I referenced when I said “prior to this year”. You moved the goalposts away from that for reasons known only to you. Everything I said stands.
Sorry, I didn’t read where the cut off was the 8th round. And that’s quite an arbitrary end point for the discussion. So, rounds 9-11 don’t count? Okay, I guess that makes sense. Whether or not you stated that, I’m saying it doesn’t make any sense to make a comment like that about the 2008 draft. And you never replied to my comment about the year the philosophy changed in Atlanta – the 2009 draft. Yes, I know DeMacio wasn’t the Director for that, but it was a clear shift in how somebody wanted it to go. And I don’t believe it’s the most “optimal” route.
To a larger point, we obviously had built our board in a way where we *projected* our *ceiling* higher on the earlier picks, which is why we drafted them first. It was only when the *performances* of all players came into play that we saw the lower rated arms were better. See what I did there?
You can make fun of those terms all you want, but it’s the basis of how things are done in the draft process and the minor league evaluation process. Answer the question: How are prospects in the lower minors judged? With their statistics from Rookie and Low-A ball? Please. That’s not how it works and you know it.
Efrim
November 1st, 2011
6:16 pm
If you believe in the value of such labels, which as we discussed yesterday…
Yes, I do believe in such labels. And so do scouts, analysts and player development peeps.
richbrave
November 1st, 2011
6:20 pm
FALL BALL
ARIZONA
SURPRISE SAGURROS
C CHRISTIAN BETHANCOURT [.364 BA] 3-4, 2 R, 1 HR [4], 1 RBI [11], 1 SO, 1 SB off BETHANCOURT [5].
1B JOE TERDSLAVICH [.367 BA] 1-4, 1 R, 1 HR [2], 1 RBI [8], 1 SO.
CF TODD CUNNINGHAM [.311 BA] 1-3, 1 BB.
Daniel Bufoon
November 1st, 2011
6:22 pm
In frigid Indy, Braves look to deal pitcher or two
12:15 pm December 9, 2009, by David O’Brien
How in the world did I get on the page above? First time I knew what was going to happen next all year.
Murph
November 1st, 2011
6:24 pm
C CHRISTIAN BETHANCOURT [.364 BA] 3-4, 2 R, 1 HR [4], 1 RBI [11], 1 SO, 1 SB off BETHANCOURT [5].
Hey McFann, did you see how great Bethancourt is doing? Pretty good, no?
BeFanCourt… BeFanCourt… BeFanCourt…
TnBrian
November 1st, 2011
6:31 pm
Bethancourt sounds like a perfect trade canidate since we have a catcher that’ll be around for some years to come.
McFann O O o Get Well Soon, Nolie!!
November 1st, 2011
6:34 pm
DOB Wrote a Christian Bethancourt feature story…
Of course you did…
Murph—
Yeah, yeah. Totally fabulosa…but he’s still got quite a ways to go…
BeFanCourt… BeFanCourt… BeFanCourt…
Saw two deer on our way to Target today—they were looking for you…
McFann O O o Get Well Soon, Nolie!!
November 1st, 2011
6:34 pm
TnBrian—
True that!…
Murph
November 1st, 2011
6:37 pm
It’s perfect timing, really… McCann’s contract will be up at the end of 2013, just as Bethancourt is ready to assume the starting catcher role.
I wouldn’t hold my breathe on a McCann extension any time soon. With the way Bethancourt is playing and the way McCann ended 2011 it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to get him wrapped up with a big extension right now.
Better to let the next year or two play themselves out and see where guys are at.
Murph
November 1st, 2011
6:38 pm
breath, not breathe… you know what I meant. don’t let my typo distract from the validity of my message.
Bethancourt ‘14!
McFann O O o Get Well Soon, Nolie!!
November 1st, 2011
6:40 pm
Murph I wouldn’t hold my breath
eon a McCann extension any time soon.I might…purple’s not such a bad color…
With the way Bethancourt is playing and the way McCann ended 2011 it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to get him wrapped up with a big extension right now.
BMac’s end of ‘11 was a freak thing…don’t know about that other guy, though, but he’s not in BMac’s league right now…
McFann O O o Get Well Soon, Nolie!!
November 1st, 2011
6:40 pm
Murph don’t let my typo distract from the validity of my message.
I think I will!…
richbrave
November 1st, 2011
6:43 pm
EFRIM:
i thought KREKE no longer a BRAVE but I haven’t been able to confirm.
Murph
November 1st, 2011
6:46 pm
McFann, I agree, they aren’t in the same league… yet.
BMac may not feel the pressure right away, but it’ll be there before you know it. Say he starts out 2012 the same way he ended 2011… how long until people start talking? Next thing you know that $12mil option that seemed like a given isn’t a sure thing anymore. Who knows what contending team will need a catcher and come calling, maybe with an amazing 3B or LF prospect, all while Bethancourt continues to improve in the minors.
I wouldn’t get too attached if I were you.
McFann O O o Get Well Soon, Nolie!!
November 1st, 2011
6:52 pm
Murph Say he starts out 2012 the same way he ended 2011… how long until people start talking?
Is that a trick question? I’ll say half a second…
I wouldn’t get too attached if I were you.
WAAAAAAY too late for that, my friend…
McFann O O o Get Well Soon, Nolie!!
November 1st, 2011
6:53 pm
Murph Who knows what contending team will need a catcher and come calling, maybe with an amazing 3B or LF prospect all while Bethancourt continues to improve in the minors.
OK, so give them the Squirt! Smiles all around!…
jim
November 1st, 2011
7:08 pm
MiaBeachFan,
I agree with your two posts — 2013, not 2012 is the next real playoff caliaber team
Once the Cards got close, there was no comparison between the two teams — Pujols, Holliday, Berkman, Carpenter, (and Freese) were better than any of the comparable Braves — especially when you fill that in with Molina, Jay, and a much deeper bench. The trade solidfied their bullpen. The starting pitching and bullpen were an edge to the Braves, but once Hanson, JJ, went down and Lowe went South, that advantage disappeared. Overuse killed the bullpen advantage We won’t even mention the Tony Fredi comparison.
The Cards did not just get into the playoffs — They were good enough to beat the Phils, Brewers, and Rangers, and win the WS.
jim
November 1st, 2011
7:22 pm
The Arisona Fall League can produce a lot of fool’s gold, so let’s not get too excited about these performances quite yet. (Brandon Woods was one of the all-time great AFL performers).
Bethancourt is still 19 yrs. old I believe. He will be ready by late 2013 – 2014. McCann will bounce back and be more like his first half self next year –BUT from a business standpoint it does not make a lot of sense to extend him beyond 2012 to a contract that will be at least 15 million/year for 4 plus years. As McCann’s agent, I would try to get 5 or more years for my client, knowing the longievity for catchers is not too high.
AS Wren, however, I would be reluctant to extend
jeffrey d
November 1st, 2011
7:24 pm
Let’s wait for the offseason to be a little more than 3 days old before we start writing off 2012
monty
November 1st, 2011
7:24 pm
Well the genuise Schultz has said Lowe might be the only “big move.” I feel something big coming our way.
McFann O O o Get Well Soon, Nolie!!
November 1st, 2011
7:25 pm
Holy…there’s a GOAT on our front steps!!…
monty
November 1st, 2011
7:27 pm
Cards were the best hitting team in the NL. And up and down the lineup just had a never quit attitude, something the Braves players should try to copy. I know attitude and heart are hard to quantify but they had it.
monty
November 1st, 2011
7:28 pm
McFann
Don’t let anyone get your goat!
jeffrey d
November 1st, 2011
7:30 pm
Well the genuise Schultz has said Lowe might be the only “big move.” I feel something big coming our way.
It’s “genius”
jeffrey d
November 1st, 2011
7:30 pm
McFann – do you think somebody left it there as a gift?
nolie
November 1st, 2011
7:31 pm
I reiterate that I encourage you to write down all of the projections about current players. See what percentage of them prove accurate over the years GV
Goodness, if you don’t think they use projection to draft players how in the world do you think they do it? The draft is 95% about projection. HS stats play almost no part, Stats from big centers like East Cobb are looked at but play little part either. Having spent 10+ years involved in it I guarantee you that projection is the basis of everything including the low minors. As a player moves up the chain more emphasis is placed on production of course
jeffrey d
November 1st, 2011
7:31 pm
Probably B-Mac
McFann O O o Get Well Soon, Nolie!!
November 1st, 2011
7:35 pm
monty—
Oh, plenty already have…
jeffrey d—
I wouldn’t think so, haha…only people we know who have goats live pretty danged far away, and we prolly wouldn’t be the first folks they’d think of to give a spare goat to…
He wandered on up the neighborhood…poor little baby. It was pretty small…some dang people just don’t take care of their pets anymore!! Makes me really t’d…
Cal Ripken Jr
November 1st, 2011
7:35 pm
It’s a little late for Wren to be patting himself on the back.
McFann O O o Get Well Soon, Nolie!!
November 1st, 2011
7:35 pm
jeffrey d Probably B-Mac
Hot dang!! And I let it get away!!…
garynpohio
November 1st, 2011
7:37 pm
what about Grady sizemore off the bench. just throwing it out there?