12:10 am November 1, 2011, by David O'Brien
November 4th, 20111:16 pm
V8? Isn’t Venters, Varvaro and Vizcaino enough?
V8 can’t play outfield
Maybe VJ and N8 can platoon…
November 4th, 20111:20 pm
I understand. I don’t like Willingham if he ends up costing a pick. I think Cuddyer has value and should still produce going forward. I don’t know there really a move we can make this year that makes us strong contenders. I think the pieces are there to make more of a run in ‘13&’14. And if we need to give up a guy or two who ultimately wont be here a few years from now in JJ to acquire pieces that can contribute then I’m for it.
November 4th, 20111:21 pm
“I don’t see any logic behind doing it.”
Then you’re not looking hard enough, and certainly haven’t read the Bowman article, or any of the many sound posts explaining why they might consider doing just that.
If you can’t see any logic behind it, it’s because you don’t want to see any logic behind it. Why don’t you just say what you really mean? Which is that you really like both players and would be bummed out to see them leave.
But saying you don’t see any logic behind it is either pure denial or simple choosing to ignore it.
November 4th, 20111:22 pm
That’s it…nobody bother commenting the rest of the day. Best comment’s already been decided. Go home everyone.
November 4th, 20111:25 pm
You have a great point about Beltran and another “injury waiting to happen”. Bad knees, 200 games missed during the last three seasons. I loved Beltran……..at age 27.
November 4th, 20111:26 pm
Not liking it and not understanding it are two different things.
When Wren let Smoltz walk, I was pissed. I understood it. But I wasn’t happy about it. Then as time passed and Smoltz struggled in Boston. Not only did I undertand it better, but I came to appreciate the tough (and correct) decision that Wren made.
If Prado and Jurrjens are traded, it’s NOT a salary dump where we will have to try and survive without them. It’s a case of our GM thinking he can make us stronger RIGHT NOW, or in the future, without sacrificing the “right now”, because the players replacing them would as good or better.
We’re not the Royals or the Pirates. Wren isn’t in the business of shipping off our talent to take on other team’s crap that might or might not pan out.
But we’re also not the Yankees, Red Sox or Angels. Wren doesn’t have an open checkbook and can’t target the top guys on the market and go get them like JS used to be able to do with the prestige that was the 90’s Braves team and Ted’s money.
Wren needs to be creative. I suspect this is the begining process of said creativity.
November 4th, 20111:27 pm
There is logic behind the moves, it’s just hard to imagine Wren pulling it all off while still getting fair value for Jair and Prado. And of course, adding an outfielder that will produce more runs than Prado and also potentially offset the starting rotation getting worse.
haggard – Thanks. But we could have him without giving up a draft pick and only $24-32 million
November 4th, 20111:28 pm
I’m afraid if I was half of any platoon, the masses would be very disappointed. The real question is if I was part of said platoon and I failed to get a bunt down….. would I blog about it later, ripping myself a new one?
The answer? ABSOLUTELY!
P-Town Brave ©
November 4th, 20111:29 pm
Yes, because we couldn’t use a guy who hit .300 and 22 HR and hit .360 down the stretch of the season while doing one thing people said he couldn’t do and that was stay healthy this year…
No, we don’t need that guy at all….
November 4th, 20111:31 pm
P-Town,hmmm. Sounds kind of like Alex Gordon,huh? LOL
November 4th, 20111:33 pm
If you are the shoe lover like me personally, this article will blow your mind. First let me say I really like shoes, I am like a kid in a candy store sometimes when I see a couple of shoes. It iseven better when you pick up a couple of shoes and envision what your entire outfit would be like walking out the doorway with those shoes on. I love the fact that I can pull out a couple of shoes two years later and still receive compliments on this.
Bradley’s article on not moving Jurrjens is one of the best articles I’ve read. Good analysis. Absolutely no reason to get rid of Jair at this point. And furthermore, the logic of trading away Jurrjens to end up overpaying for guys like Lowe and KK just is astounding.
I get that we have a stockpile of pitching. But you don’t trade one of the top 2 guys on your staff, just because he is getting a raise.
I mean, he’s so f!cking bad. It’s not just the missed time, this guy didn’t produce at all in 2011…..
and I failed to get a bunt down
Why the assumption that you will be batting second or last?
November 4th, 20111:34 pm
PTown – Of course we could use a player with those numbers. However, you’re assuming a lot to believe that he stays in the lineup enough to post those numbers again and would continue to do so – injury free- for the next several years, through age 35, 36 and 37 when he’s missed as much time due to injuries as he has.
Difference is the guy I am talking about has continuously hit through his entire career….
Not just one season that could very well be an abberation…
AND he’s also a switch hitter w/ outstanding OBP skills, not another left handed hitter in an already left handed heavy lineup…
I mean hell, no offense to Alex Gordon, but if I wanted another lefty to throw sh!t at the tv when we get killed by LHP, I’d want Andre Ethier.
“And of course, adding an outfielder that will produce more runs than Prado and also potentially offset the starting rotation getting worse”
That’s the kicker. After all, this is still a team sport.
If Jurrjens is healthy, any of Minor (assuming Beachy is already in the rotation), Delgado or Teheran would be hard pressed to be better than him in 2012. Moving forward after that? I expect all of them to be reasonably close to what JJJ is as their careers move forward. But that’s just me.
But if the “downgrade” in the rotation was minimal, and Wren is able to upgrade other areas of weakness? How is that not a win overall?
Then when you factor in that Jurrjens wasn’t healthy last year and might not be again this year? It doesn’t take much to be better than an injured player. If Delgado or Minor are going to end up in the rotation in the event of a Jurrjens injury anyhow? Why not trade him and get something FOR him?
Of course the risk is if Jurrjens is healthy and goes and wins the Cy Young for the Roayls next year. Then what?
Which brings up the question. If Jurrjens were to be traded and would win the Cy Young in any of the next 3 years, but during that time the Braves would win the World Series (or simply win a playoff series) with help from the guys coming our way in the trade (or bought in free agency with the money saved)…..
would people still be mad about it?
November 4th, 20111:35 pm
VJ will play for the minimum…
“Why the assumption that you will be batting second or last?”
Hey. Lets be clear here. I’m a team player. Even if I was batting in the cleanup spot, I’d attempt to lay down a bunt if that’s what the situation called for.
November 4th, 20111:36 pm
Since 2006, his age 29 year old season through this past year, Carlos Beltran has hit .286/.377/.522, 137 OPS+. From hois rookie year through 2005, he hit .282/.350/.479, 111 OPS+.
In his last three injury plagued years, he’s hit .298/.384/.497, 141 OPS+.
November 4th, 20111:37 pm
Yes, and we’re assuming more in assuming Chipper will play over 1/2 the season, Hanson will pitch over 1/2 the season, and Heyward won’t be a complete bum!
Beltran has proven 1 thing and 1 alone throughout his entire career —- he is a professional hitter!
IF he played 120 and put up good numbers, it’d be better than getting Josh ’sh!ttastic’ Willingham
November 4th, 20111:38 pm
Great article by Crasnick…
I fully expect Teheran and Delgado to be better…as do 99% of the scouting and expert nation…
Reasonably….cmon N8, you’re better than this!
November 4th, 20111:39 pm
From 1999-2008, Beltran averaged 147 games per year. Stuggled to play a combined 145 games in 2009 and 2010, and then bounced back to play 142 games this past year.
November 4th, 20111:40 pm
The Witch: I’m not a witch I’m not a witch!
Sir Bedevere: But you are dressed as one
The Witch: *They* dressed me up like this!
Crowd: We didn’t! We didn’t…
The Witch: And this isn’t my nose. It’s a false one.
Sir Bedevere: [lifts up her false nose] Well?
Peasant 1: Well, we did do the nose.
Sir Bedevere: The nose?
Peasant 1: And the hat, but she is a witch!
Crowd: Yeah! Burn her! Burn her!
Sir Bedevere: Did you dress her up like this?
Peasant 1: No!
Peasant 3, Peasant 2: No!
Peasant 3: No!
Peasant 1: No!
Peasant 3, Peasant 2: No!
Peasant 1: Yes!
Peasant 2: Yes!
Peasant 1: Yeah a bit.
Peasant 3: A bit!
Peasant 1, Peasant 2: A bit!
Peasant 2: a bit
Peasant 1: But she has got a wart!
Random Person in the crowd: *cough* *cough*
November 4th, 20111:41 pm
Bradley…good analysis, oxymoron. Kidding, I like Mark fine, he is usually a funny read.
I think some people are upset with prospect of trading JJ because we assume we will get fleeced, but if its a fair deal, and we get equal value, then I think everyone will be happy. And truthfully, how many here really have confidence that JJ is a top of the rotation starter? Not me, I always felt like he was ready to implode at any moment. Too many guys on base, too many hits, etc.
November 4th, 20111:42 pm
P-Town,just means your 4th OF needs to be a righty. Gordon is for real,enough righties with Chipper,Prado, Ross,Uggla and Pastorzalez.
November 4th, 20111:43 pm
PTown – WE have no choice with Chipper at this point. Be,tran has, indeed, hit throughout his carerer – WHEN in the lineup, which hasn’t been much the last couple of years
Dude, it isn’t speculation that he has knee problems, that he’s had surgery on them (when HE felt like it) and has missed almost 200 games the past three years, any more than his hitting is speculation. Yes, he Has hit and Yes, he has had injury problems and yes, it is entirely reasonable to assume he will both continue to hit and continue to miss appreciable amounts of time.
November 4th, 20111:44 pm
Bring out your dead!!! Bring out your dead!!!
November 4th, 20111:46 pm
Sooooo appropriate here…
King Arthur: O Knights of Ni, you are just and fair, and we will return with a shrubbery.
Leader of The Knights who say NI!: One that looks nice.
King Arthur: Of course.
Leader of The Knights who say NI!: And not too expensive.
King Arthur: Yes.
November 4th, 20111:48 pm
If nothing else, I’m stunned no one is concerned about signing a 35 year old player who HAS miussed all that time to a several year contract at the rate he will likely be looking for.
With the talent we have available for a potential trade , there just has to be a better, less risky option that could be found.
When the Braves needed pitching, Wren spent 60 million dollars on a 35 year old Derek Lowe that was considered to be a guy that took the ball everyday and never spent time on the disabled list. All he did was provide bulk innings and slightly better than league average ERA’s for the Dodgers. Wren could do that for 60 million, but couldn’t possibly give Carlos Beltran – a more impactful player – around 20 million total less than that. Oh, and of course, he wouldn’t lose a draft pick like he did when he signed the durable, gritty, gutty Derek Lowe.
November 4th, 20111:49 pm
posted a new blog today with all that’s been going on…..so have at it?!
November 4th, 20111:50 pm
A few key issues there w/ what you said…
Uggla hits lefties like a lefty so that one holds no water and Ross is a backup so you can’t account for him very often or only about every 5th day…
If we get Gordon, Prado doesn’t factor in because Gordon plays every day correct?
And Pastor shouldn’t be brought into the conversation til he is given the job….
So….at a given time, you would have 5 lefties in the lineup v LHP w/ Uggla added as a 6th who is terrible against LHP and that is not counting whomever they get to play SS…
THAT is just an awful idea for a team who has so much trouble v LHP my friend.
November 4th, 20111:51 pm
And I don’t want to hear that the Braves were in dire need of starting pitching and just had to give Derek that contract. We want to win a World Series next year, right? I’d say power in the outfield is what Wren pointed out as a need in his state of the union, so I’d expect him to at least explore the option of bringing in a offensive threat like Beltran.
If nothing else, I’m stunned no one is concerned about signing a 35 year old player who HAS miussed all that time to a several year contract at the rate he will likely be looking for. – Lew
I’m assuming this comment is in regard to Beltran. If so, I agree. Signing him to a 3-year contract with the limited financial resources the Braves have is insane. It’s not that he’s not a good player…it’s that the Braves don’t have the financial resources to absorb the impact of his contract and replace him if (when) he gets hurt.
November 4th, 20111:55 pm
You mean kinda like what has happened w/ Larry Wayne Jones Jr….
Yeah, I said it.
Efrim – I won’t dispute your contentions regarding Lowe and Wren;’s expecditure. However, Wren HAD that money then and doesn’t now. That’s a substantial difference – not to mention we needed much pitching then, but actually only need a part time corner outfielder this year.
November 4th, 20111:59 pm
P-Town, only appreciable bad year against lefties for Uggla was 2011. Prado could give Gordon day off against toughest lefties and Gonzo will probably be back at SS,but enough with this dead horse.You continue and I shall have to curse you and say bad things about your mother. LOL
November 4th, 20112:02 pm
P-Town Brave ©,
Honestly, yes. However, the fans and organization are MUCH more willing to accept that from a franchise icon instead of a mercenary who comes in for 3 years and is injured for 1.5 of them. Not to mention that Chipper’s latest contract was signed when he was still pretty productive. This would be akin to giving Chipper a 3-year extension based on last year’s results. It’s simply not a very high percentage payoff.
November 4th, 20112:03 pm
Enter your comments here
November 4th, 20112:04 pm
New blog boys and girls.
November 4th, 20112:05 pm
I’ve tried three time to thank you for the link to the article, as it’s good to see someone mention the Braves and moving forward in the same sentence. It certainly took me a while to reach that point.
November 4th, 20112:07 pm
Even though the Lowe contract didn’t work out exactly like he planned, give Wren credit for sticking to his guns and NOT including a No-Trade Clause in that contract, even though Lowe and Boras wanted one. It may have cost the Braves a little extra, but having the option to move him turned out to be pretty valuable.
November 4th, 20112:09 pm
Ease (November 2nd, 2011 11:03 am): ” ‘Wren isn’t going after Willingham’
“Unless it comes from Random, I will never believe it!”
Thanks for the vote of confidence, bud, but I’m no longer the guy that was saying that Kawakami would not be traded.
I’m the doofus that said Lowe will not be traded.
(I still cannot believe it, especially if the Braves are seriously shopping JJJ. Less than a $5M savings? I sure hope that LHP minor leaguer pans out, ’cause Lowe’s gonna be lights out in 2012.)
November 4th, 20112:23 pm
Bat Masterson (November 3rd, 2011 12:59 pm): ” ‘Is this a typo, or did George quit hording A’s?’ _ jeffrey
“A couple of weeks ago George posted that he had just learned he was spelling y’all wrong. Which just goes to show he does not pay attention to either of us, jeffrey.”
I take full and sole credit for George’s epiphany.
(Don’t make me prove it.)
November 4th, 20112:30 pm
monty (November 3rd, 2011 10:41 am): “As far as Pujols height is concerned, I don’t trust media guides, I look at comparisons when players stand next to each other. And for my money, seeing him stand at 1b next to others, I have always been surprised by how short he looks standing next to some ball players. I would estimate he’s more like 6′1″- 6′2″ tall than he is 6′3”.”
So, you can detect a one inch (about 1.3%) difference in height from your TV? Must be one of those brand new high-def plasma 3D 15 foot models, huh?
“JMO. Chipper is much taller than [Pujols] is. And I think he’s listed at 6′4″.”
Based on the media guides?
November 4th, 20112:34 pm
monty (November 3rd, 2011 10:48 am): “DAP
“Not sure I follow you, if you are saying 162 games “don’t matter.” I’ve watched the 2 enough to put my money on Molina in a do-or-die situation.”
How much did you wager? Did you win?
November 4th, 20112:36 pm
monty (November 3rd, 2011 11:06 am): “DAp
“I just went to baseball reference to see if what my eyes were telling me was true wasn’t, and I was right, just go pull up their “clutch stats” and you will see what I’m talking about.”
Why should we have to look it up if you just did?
(And I did say “IF”.)
Don’t you know how to copy and paste?
November 4th, 20113:00 pm
Well that shut them up
November 4th, 20114:07 pm
The challenge in reacting to a collapse this dispiriting is making the necessary roster tweaks without overreacting. Sources confirmed an MLB.com report that the Braves are willing to entertain offers for Jurrjens and Prado. Indeed, the Braves are ready to listen on just about anyone except Heyward, first baseman Freddie Freeman and their elite young pitchers. Crasnick
November 4th, 20118:23 pm
This was such a meaty and fantastically long article. David O’Brien, you sir are getting better with age. I particularly enjoyed the part about the prospects, and I thought the Lowe/McClouth moratoriums were very well done. No way do I trade Prado, Hoss isn’t exactly an everyday player any more, and Prado is class personified.
July 2nd, 20124:31 pm
I really appreciate the time you took to create this.
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