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3,788 comments Add your comment
Arkansas Transplant
October 19th, 2011
3:35 pm
I get it.
I seriously doubt it, but we’re hoping.
Bay Area Steve
October 19th, 2011
3:35 pm
Here’s my hope:
That the Braves new draft/international signing approach is the new Moneyball. The rest of the league is doing it one way, and the Braves have found value in the system.
I think accurately predicting an 18-year-old’s ceiling is very, very difficult. I think different scouts think of the same players with a wide range of ceilings. I think, until four or five years have passed after a draft, and a team’s selections are compared to the league, that one cannot say whether a draft was better or worse than average.
And, just to really tweak Efrim, I think a guy like Gilmartin (as an example, never seen him pitch) has nearly the same chance to be a Hall of Famer as the No 1 pick. That is how inexact the process.
Bay Area Steve
October 19th, 2011
3:36 pm
Is it wrong that I feel like people who play games on their phones should be shot? It seems wrong…
Murph
October 19th, 2011
3:36 pm
AT, I noticed the same thing after I typed it. DAP just got me sooooo freakin’ angry, bringing up the donut incident and questioning my knowledge of Angry Bird obstacle surfaces…. I couldn’t see straight.
Oh, and AT… have a nice afternoon homey.
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
3:37 pm
nolie, oh, you are talking career OPS+. Something you overlook is that he played primarily shortstop along with a lot of secondbase. A 106 OPS+ from a shortstop, even if he’s not that great defensively, is pretty darn good. Context is to stats as location is to real estate.
abwright
October 19th, 2011
3:37 pm
Efrim, October 19th, 2011, 3:27 pm … “From what I am reading, I don’t think there is going to be much change to the draft or free agent compensation. “
I thought I heard/read something about rigidizing slotting bonuses.
P-Town Brave ©
October 19th, 2011
3:37 pm
Shaun is like a little person back in the day in Florida trying to vote….
Just jumping up and down grabbing levers….has no clue what he’s doing, but just keeps doing it….
abwright
October 19th, 2011
3:37 pm
Also on CBA … I thought the “Super-Two” rules were going to be changed.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
3:38 pm
Context is to stats as location is to real estate.
Was this necessary?
nolie
October 19th, 2011
3:38 pm
nolie, Young had a 124 OPS+ this season…shaun
what does that have to do with anything. The career line was quoted and I responded that it is not quite as great as it looks cause it was put up in Texas.
RC
October 19th, 2011
3:38 pm
Here’s my hope:
That the Braves new draft/international signing approach is the new Moneyball. The rest of the league is doing it one way, and the Braves have found value in the system.
Here’s my hope:
That the Braves new approach is successful, but never becomes “the new Moneyball”, because then other teams with more money would start using it, making it a less effective strategy for the Braves. I’d be perfectly content to outperform the rest of the teams in baseball, without ever having a book written that breaks down exactly how the Braves did it.
nolie
October 19th, 2011
3:39 pm
sigh
Murph
October 19th, 2011
3:39 pm
Is it wrong that I feel like people who play games on their phones should be shot? It seems wrong…
Why would you say such a horrible, mean thing?
I love my iPhone more than any tech gadget I’ve ever bought. More than any Xbox, PC, dvd player… it’s the greatest device ever created. The games are awesome and fit just right into my limited time that I have to play them… 5 minutes here, 5 minutes there… love it.
RC
October 19th, 2011
3:40 pm
Is it wrong that I feel like people who play games on their phones should be shot? It seems wrong…
I’ll let you know in a minute, just need to make another play on “Words with Friends”.
Sent from my Verizon iPhone
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
3:40 pm
Bay Area Steve, I do think the Braves did approach the draft in a Moneyball type way over the past decade. They’ve seemed to have sort of tried to hide local talent and understate it so that they can snatch up those players. This is a nice strategy because an amateur is probably more likely to sign with their hometown team at a lower price when drafted and, if the amateur develops into a quality major leaguer, perhaps he takes less to stay with the major league club.
Bay Area Steve
October 19th, 2011
3:41 pm
RC, nice. Your way’s better. Far better.
I think it’s envy, Murph. Clearly, it’s not rational.
nolie
October 19th, 2011
3:43 pm
what is an Iphone??????………
abwright
October 19th, 2011
3:43 pm
BAS … I’m sure you’re tweaking, but I think the criticism of the Braves drafting practices (and the concern to fans) is that the talent level in the low minors is dreadful. This would be a couple years into the five year evaluation, and it’s not looking good.
I understand the argument regarding leverage … you get young, unproven players for less money. However, you also spend a lot on nothing for the many players that flame out.
So, saying “The Braves spent $2M on a guy who became a super-star and made the Braves $36M” is inexact. Rather, “The Braves spent $2M on the superstar (13x gain), but they spent $32M on guys who went nowhere.” The net is zero.
nolie
October 19th, 2011
3:44 pm
I think its a great idea BAS, as should folks who talk on their phones while driving and in the movie theater
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
3:45 pm
And, just to really tweak Efrim, I think a guy like Gilmartin (as an example, never seen him pitch) has nearly the same chance to be a Hall of Famer as the No 1 pick. That is how inexact the process.
You may be right, and it is a very difficult process, but I’d much rather have high ceiling players that have perhaps less of a chance to be a big leaguer, but more of a chance to be a star if his tools play well in the game.
I think, until four or five years have passed after a draft, and a team’s selections are compared to the league, that one cannot say whether a draft was better or worse than average.
I’d really like to think that a draft can show some signs of hope after less than four or five years, BAS. Those players don’t have to reach the majors and start to play well and contribute, but perhaps some of them can be used for trade to pick up big league pieces. For instance, the 2008 draft was solid. Churned out Craig Kimbrel, Zeke Spruill, Adam Milligan, J.J. Hoover who are still in our system and also gave us a year and a half of Michael Bourn(Brett Oberholtzer and Paul Clemens). I haven’t seen much evidence that the 2009 draft aside from Mike Minor was good. And I’d expect Mike Minor to be exactly what he’s been based on being the #7 overall selection in the draft. Not to mention, a lot of higher selections than other team each round and less value than any draft we’ve had in a while.
DAP
October 19th, 2011
3:49 pm
murph Oh, and DAP, if it’s glass, then why is there an achievement called “Ice Breaker” that can be earned for breaking the ice/glass objects?
ah crap.
DAP
October 19th, 2011
3:51 pm
shaun Heyward got 136 fewer PA than Prado. Five per game…that’s a little over 27 games worth. So please don’t give me that it was all because Prado played more positions.
prado started 37 games at positions other than the outfield. so yeah, that pretty much explains it. if heyward played 3rd maybe he gets a few of those PAs.
Lew
October 19th, 2011
3:51 pm
No, what Shaun would do would be to argue incessantly with the shoe trying to make it see his point of view, until everyone around him grew so tired of the continual arguing, came over and pounded their head into the nail until it was driven in.
McFann O O o
October 19th, 2011
3:51 pm
Murph I used to hate the white birds, but have learned to use their post-bomb drop flight trajectory to my advantage.
Yeah, me, too! But I get so TICKED OFF when I tap the screen and they don’t drop their bombs, that sometimes I’d like to throw my dang iTouch across the room…
That’s when it’s time to put the game down…
DAP @ 3:49—
Haha! Got you there…
Snotboogie
October 19th, 2011
3:51 pm
as should folks who talk on their phones while driving
These folks you dont have to shoot. Sooner or later they’ll hit some concrete well or an 18 wheeler. Just have to hope that they dont have their kid or pet in the car at the time.
Bay Area Steve
October 19th, 2011
3:52 pm
Definitely tweaking, abwright,
Devil’s advocate. All that. For the record, Efrim is my minor’s guy. What he says, I trust. I fall in line. I’m too lazy to do my own research, I see how much passion he has for it, how bright a guy he is, and I fall in line. (I try, with all I have, to not allow the fact that he wants the DH in both leagues to cloud my opinion of him).
I guess I just want to hope that he (and you, and virtually every draft-rater on the Inter Tubes) is wrong about the Braves’ approach. ‘Cause we’re kinda screwed if y’all are right.
Murph
October 19th, 2011
3:52 pm
ah crap.
i actually just googled it… turns out that the developer calls it glass, but they must have originally called it ice since the achievement is called “Ice Breaker” and the audio file that plays when you break it is titled “ice”.
So, technically you are kinda right.
nolie
October 19th, 2011
3:53 pm
I think we can be fairly sure that Gilmartin is not gonna make the HOF……….
Lew
October 19th, 2011
3:57 pm
I think it would be interesting to know what round those in the HOF were drafted. Bet there were a lot that weren’t early round choices.
P-Town Brave ©
October 19th, 2011
3:57 pm
RC-
Too funny…
I’m actually playing Hanging With Friends right now
N8
October 19th, 2011
3:57 pm
Back in the day when JS had Ted’s checkbook at his disposal, I believe the correct “play” in the draft was to go after high ceiling guys (even if high risk/reward), because we could always afford to make a trade for somebody if needed.
Now? I’m not so sure it’s the right play. I don’t mind having lower ceiling guys (if they truly are) like Minor and Gilmartin.
This team as currently constructed and with our budget, needs a 25 man roster of guys that can contribute. Even if not at an elite level, at least at an above average level.
Especially with the everyday players. The pitchers, I lean a little more towards finding guys with elite possibilities.
But tell me that it wouldn’t have been nice to have a couple of average, to “steady” guys in our outfield this year, instead of two guys (Heyward and Schafer) who were once considered “top” prospects with a can’t miss label?
High risk….. high reward (if it all pans out). In 2011 it didn’t.
Bay Area Steve
October 19th, 2011
3:58 pm
And this,
Y’all have mentioned the extra picks that teams are getting through FA compensation. If we disregard the skill (or whatever) in acquiring those picks, and look at just drafts alone, how can we fairly compare drafts when some teams have eight picks before we make two?
So, I guess I’m saying that while the current system exists, I think the ability to acquire those picks is a separate thing from the quality of the draft picks themselves.
CB
October 19th, 2011
3:58 pm
nolie,good guess since there are only 295 members.
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
3:59 pm
I thought I heard/read something about rigidizing slotting bonuses.
“Hard slotting” is what it is called and Ken Rosenthal reported that this topic is a hang up right now, but could probably be worked around. So it’s possible hard-slotting comes into play.
Lemke's Knuckler
October 19th, 2011
3:59 pm
Efrim…”And I’d expect Mike Minor to be exactly what he’s been”
I have to strongly disagree with that. He steadily improved last season and I think he’s only going to get better.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
3:59 pm
(I try, with all I have, to not allow the fact that he wants the DH in both leagues to cloud my opinion of him).
Thanks, BAS. And the above line made me laugh. I think I like the DH for different reasons – mainly because I hate seeing pitchers making outs constantly and NL pitchers K rates and ERA benefitting because of it. Weird. I know.
nolie
October 19th, 2011
3:59 pm
40% of all first round picks do not ever make it to the bigs at all.
I believe BaseballReference lists what each player was drafted as.
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
3:59 pm
I was hoping the Braves would get BJ Upton over Bourn, if the price for both was reasonably close. I made a reasonable argument as to why. I suppose that makes me an Upton “fanboy.” You aren’t allowed to say positive things about certain players, backed up with evidence and reason, or else you’re a “fanboy.” I get it now.
DAP
October 19th, 2011
4:00 pm
i actually just googled it… turns out that the developer calls it glass,
vindicated!
McFann O O o
October 19th, 2011
4:01 pm
Dangit…
Lemke's Knuckler
October 19th, 2011
4:02 pm
N8…”Back in the day when JS had Ted’s checkbook at his disposal, I believe the correct “play” in the draft was to go after high ceiling guys (even if high risk/reward), because we could always afford to make a trade for somebody if needed”
It also might have to do with the fact that signing bonuses for first round picks have gone up about 500% in the past decade. Teams are less willing to throw $8 million at a high risk project that might take 6 years to develop before they see any returns.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
4:03 pm
This team as currently constructed and with our budget, needs a 25 man roster of guys that can contribute. Even if not at an elite level, at least at an above average level.
Just wait. The current philosophy continues, and we are in very deep, deep sh!t – to quote Samir, from Office Space.
N8
October 19th, 2011
4:03 pm
“I think we can be fairly sure that Gilmartin is not gonna make the HOF……….”
There lies the problem with most folks nolie. Some aren’t happy unless a guy is considered a legit HOF candidate. The truth of the matter is that most guys that make it to the big leagues, and some with very successful long-term careers DO NOT make it to the HOF.
But plenty of guys not worthy of even being in a HOF conversation have helped teams win for 2-3 year stretches (or longer).
It’s gotten to the point for me, where as a fan, I’m looking for nothing more than “value” out of a player.
Teams have a player under control for 6 years when called up. My main question is what can said player do for my favorite team in those 6 years? We’re 1/3 of the way through Heyward’s first 6 years. He’s got 4 years to show his worth and value to our team.
He might be so valuble that we can’t remotely think of letting him leave. He might be just valuble enough to milk him for all he’s worth and then let him walk because he’ll be too expensive. His greatest value might end up coming by trading him.Too early to tell.
So, yeah. Gilmartin likely won’t make the HOF. But over the next 6-8 years what kind of value will he bring to the Braves? In the end, that’s all that should really matter.
Snotboogie
October 19th, 2011
4:05 pm
I was hoping the Braves would get BJ Upton over Bourn, if the price for both was reasonably close. I made a reasonable argument as to why. I suppose that makes me an Upton “fanboy.” You aren’t allowed to say positive things about certain players, backed up with evidence and reason, or else you’re a “fanboy.” I get it now.
No you didnt. You can keep saying “logical”, “reason” “reasonable” over and over to keep convincing yourself. No one else believes any of your arguments are that. Your arguments are quite often based on pre-conceived notions.
nolie
October 19th, 2011
4:05 pm
I don’t have all that much problem with drafting more conservatively after the first round or even late in the first round like Gilmartin was, but I did have a problem with taking Minor as the #7 pick in all baseball.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
4:06 pm
Y’all have mentioned the extra picks that teams are getting through FA compensation. If we disregard the skill (or whatever) in acquiring those picks, and look at just drafts alone, how can we fairly compare drafts when some teams have eight picks before we make two?
So, I guess I’m saying that while the current system exists, I think the ability to acquire those picks is a separate thing from the quality of the draft picks themselves.
I think it’s unfair as well. Alex Anthonopolous trades for guys and signs guys he knows gets him supplemental first round picks(Type B free agents per Elias) and then has a behind closed doors handshake that they won’t accept arbitration. How the hell is this allowed? He’s playing the system, good for him. As is the Rays Friedman, but I have an issue with it as the Braves are selecting their 2nd rounder in the friggin high 80’s. That’s lame and needs to be stopped.
DAP
October 19th, 2011
4:07 pm
does anybody think ryan doumit might be a nice piece as a utility guy? switch hitter with power plays RF, 1B and Catcher..very unique.
Lew
October 19th, 2011
4:07 pm
Shaun – The evidence showed that Upton was on a three year downturn. I posted the slash lines several times to prove it. You, however, kept talking about potential. Potential means nothing if not realized. Upton has realized it much less for three consecutive years.
Lemke's Knuckler
October 19th, 2011
4:08 pm
Also, the amateur landscape has changed. Baseball talents are no longer born, they are produced at the baseball training clinics of the world. Fifteen years ago, it probably wasn’t hard for scouts to spot a special talent among the masses. Now you have so many good players that it’s hard for the “special” ones to stand out as much. Makes the first round pick a little more risky in my opinion, because it’s harder to accurately judge where a player’s ceiling might be.
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
4:08 pm
prado started 37 games at positions other than the outfield. so yeah, that pretty much explains it. if heyward played 3rd maybe he gets a few of those PAs.
DAP, So you’re saying it’s acceptable that Heyward essentially got what amounts to no plate appearances while Prado was playing third and first? Heyward should have been out there most games that Prado was playing left and most games when Prado was playing other positions, so they should have had a lot closer to an equal number of plate appearances than they did.
P-Town Brave ©
October 19th, 2011
4:09 pm
Now listening to Dimino….
I agree that this team has MANY holes w/ little cash flexibility that does not look like they’ll be primed to win anything….
Too many “IF’s” and finger crossing exercises….
N8
October 19th, 2011
4:09 pm
“Just wait. The current philosophy continues, and we are in very deep, deep sh!t – to quote Samir, from Office Space.”
Nah. You’re over-reacting. Because along the way there will be a late round draft pick that pans out way more than expected. They’ll be some trades for guys that fill voids for a the time being and when Chipper and Lowe are gone, there will be money to spend on free agents or taking on bigger contracts via trade.
It’s all relative to the current state of the organization. I think as long as you keep taking guys that can produce at an above average level and keep pumping them quickly through the system (like Minor), things will work out if the trades and free agents pan out.
It’s when you start missing on those guys that it will get ugly. I think Minor will be a fine starter for years to come. Certainly not going to the HOF, probably never going to get mentioned in Cy Young conversations. But so what? If he mans the #3 or #4 spot of our rotation for the next 4-5 years? Who cares?
I think the other thing that helps by not taking the high risk/high reward guys is the patience a team will have with them. Look at Heyward.
He’ll be given every chance to pull himself back together. As he should, because he was an “elite, top notch, can’t miss” prospect. He’ll have to suck for two more years before they give up on him. But at what cost? If we keep throwing him out there in LF, it might continue to cost us games, because they feel obligated to play him.
If that’s anybody else in RF, they would have been benched months ago. Sometimes the high risk guys are more trouble than they are worth UNTIL they pan out.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
4:10 pm
It’s gotten to the point for me, where as a fan, I’m looking for nothing more than “value” out of a player.
I’m still looking for stars. Always will. That wins titles and makes an organization sustain success. Back of the rotation pitchers and average position players gets you no where, imo. You win with stars and elite big leaguers.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
4:12 pm
If that’s anybody else in RF, they would have been benched months ago. Sometimes the high risk guys are more trouble than they are worth UNTIL they pan out.
You’ve gotten burned by Heyward, and now you want high floor guys. Couldn’t disagree more with you and that isn’t a way to build a championship level team.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
4:15 pm
Nah. You’re over-reacting. Because along the way there will be a late round draft pick that pans out way more than expected. They’ll be some trades for guys that fill voids for a the time being and when Chipper and Lowe are gone, there will be money to spend on free agents or taking on bigger contracts via trade.
It’s all relative to the current state of the organization. I think as long as you keep taking guys that can produce at an above average level and keep pumping them quickly through the system (like Minor), things will work out if the trades and free agents pan out.
Keep thinking that way. When you don’t have elite prospects, it’s really hard to acquire elite players at the major league level. Not everyone is as dumb as Houston that takes what they can get for their stars.
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
4:16 pm
Lew, there is absolutely no evidence that Upton was on a three-year downturn. In 2008 he was solid. In 2009 he was not. In 2010 he was essentially back to his 2008 level. In 2011 he was solid again.
And potential, i.e., what is likely, means something. Otherwise how would any team ever bring up any young talent? “Oh, he only has potential. He hasn’t realized it yet, so we can’t give him a chance.”
You’re problem is that you can’t see that there isn’t much wrong with the way Upton has performed in his career, especially considering his age and position and home park. But you prefer to ignore all that and pretend that players don’t go through aging and development, that they are essentially going to be the same player from day 1 in the majors to the day they retire. For someone who thinks this, I can see why they might think Upton isn’t likely to be a good player. Also, I can see why someone who only looks at the most basic stats and ignores context, age, etc. would think there is something deficient with Upton’s career so far.
N8
October 19th, 2011
4:17 pm
“I don’t have all that much problem with drafting more conservatively after the first round or even late in the first round like Gilmartin was, but I did have a problem with taking Minor as the #7 pick in all baseball.” nolie
For the most part I agree with you. But will your mind change on that if Minor is a solid contributer for our rotation for the next 4-5 years? Or if he nets a really nice bat in a trade along the way?
I think the Braves freaked out with the state of their rotation and the upper level prospects at the time Minor was drafted. They were thinking fast-track from the get go. Then the kids started catching up to him or passing him by. Now he might be in limbo. Even a guy like Beachy passed him by out of nowhere.
So yeah, in hindsight if the Braves had realized all those kids were going to literally be ready to step in at about the same time Minor was, they probably would have taken another high school kid to mold along the way to have ready around the 2013 or so season. Or sooner if he progressed quickly.
But in the end, as long as Minor gives us around a 3.00 – 3.75 ERA, 30+ starts and keeps us in games for the next few years (or nets us somebody of value in a trade), I’m perfectly OK with the pick.
There’s a very real chance from my angle that Minor ends up being the better long-term player for the Braves than Heyward if things don’t change. Yet nobody is ragging on the Heyward pick. Might end up being a complete bust. Who knows?
Lew
October 19th, 2011
4:17 pm
Still arguing about Prado in reference to Heyward. When is it going to sink in that there is no comparison of the two possible other than that they are both Braves’ players?
Prado never played right field and Heyward never played left. Prado covered two positions, neither of which were Heyward’s. Prado is a converted infielder who still plays infield. Heyward is a right fielder. Prado had a several year track record of good batting averages, good OBP’s and more power than we really figured he’d ever have. Heyward had most of ONE season as a track record who wasn’t hitting or getting on base.
Not to mention that the season is over and things worked out how they worked out and any speculation or constant griping that it went down how it did is not going to change a damned thing. It won’t change how events turned out last year and it won’t change how Fredi or the organization does things next year.
Bottom line – Heyward – for whatever the reason – had a lousy season and got benched for 13 games. Lie with it.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
4:17 pm
Makes the first round pick a little more risky in my opinion, because it’s harder to accurately judge where a player’s ceiling might be.
They don’t have to give a first round talent a 5 millin dollar bonus every year. I guess it’s a little too early to be concerned, but if they continue with these types of drafts, the system will weaken and many other teams in the majors will pass on Braves prospects and go to other teams for their stars when they are auctioning off their big league talent.
N8
October 19th, 2011
4:18 pm
“I’m still looking for stars. Always will. That wins titles and makes an organization sustain success. Back of the rotation pitchers and average position players gets you no where, imo. You win with stars and elite big leaguers.”
Just like the Cardinals, right?
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
4:20 pm
There’s a very real chance from my angle that Minor ends up being the better long-term player for the Braves than Heyward if things don’t change. Yet nobody is ragging on the Heyward pick. Might end up being a complete bust. Who knows?
You’re unbelievable, N8. You truly are a one of a kind on here.
Where is Random? I want that statement you made on a blog in September, basically rooting against Heyward and making a snarky comment about him leaving for the Yankees after a strong walk year. You take it to the extreme with him and you’re the type of Heyward hater that makes me applaude Shaun for defending the guy.
I’ve never seen a more polarizing figure than Heyward. Perhaps Keith Law…..
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
4:22 pm
Payne with more #EpicFail at 3:21pm and 3:25pm.
So, the discussion is now back to Prado vs Heyward and off Heyward being benched for 5 games. Well, if you wish to drag Prado in, fine. Now you are down to 3 games in the season that match your criteria for your point, rendering your point moot yet again.
Are you taking into account that if Heyward gets a pinch-hitting opportunity or comes in for defense, that counts as a game, even though he should have been starting essentially every game against RHP.
Actually, I’m looking at all the games in which Heyward did not start after he returned from the DL. Of those games he was “benched” after returning from the DL, 5 of them were against RHP all the remaining “benchings” came against LHP and clearly Heyward was not the best option to start in those games. Of those 5 games against RHP, 3 of them Prado was in left. The other 2, Prado played 3B because Chipper was out of the line up. So you are now down to your argument being over 3 games.
There’s something about a “sample size” in there somewhere. Three games is so small it’s hard to find it though. I’m sure it will turn up somewhere.
Oh, and Freeman was something like a slightly-below-average offensive firstbaseman this season.
Yes, he had a 100 OPS+ at the position as a 21 year old rookie first baseman. Meaning he posted a league average season as a firstbaseman. Right at league average on the season. If you wish to now define 100 for the position as below league average, you’ve made a tough case for yourself going forward.
Oh, and by the way, how did BJ Upton do from the trade deadline on?
And out of nowhere BJ Upton is brought up. I never once mentioned this guy. But while we’re on the randomness course, how about that Ned Nederlander? He has got it. True story.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
4:23 pm
Just like the Cardinals, right?
Please explain. They traded Brett Wallace, a first rounder, for Matt Holliday. Wouldn’t have gotten him otherwise. They traded Colby Rasmus, a first rounder, for Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel and Mike Rypchlkdjflsajf or whatever that nasty lefty’s name is. Two players that were first rounders that teams felt were elite level talents. They spun them for players that very much aided them in making the playoffs and winning 90 games. You honestly have no idea what you are talking about.
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
4:24 pm
I’ve never seen a more polarizing figure than Heyward. Perhaps Keith Law…
Actually it’s all Keith Law’s fault.
I’ve got a tee-shirt which proves it.
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
4:25 pm
Mike Rypchlkdjflsajf
Ha! Wish Harry Carry were still around to call his name during the game.
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
4:27 pm
“You win with stars and elite big leaguers.”
Just like the Cardinals, right?
Really nate, that doesn’t make much sense unless you are agreeing. Are you agreeing? Cards have a star studded team, coaching staff and manager in a star-studded town with the second most WS titles in the history of the game… They’re winning with stars.
Lew
October 19th, 2011
4:27 pm
Shaun – Most basic stats? You mean OBP and SLG% are to be ignored now, too as meaningless?
How many years does a player need to play full time in the bigs before potential is just that – potential and not relating to actual performance?
At age 22 Upton hit .300, .386, .508 in 08 he hit .273, .383, .401 – a dropoff , but still reasonably good. In the three years since then? Highest batting average has been .243 (minus 30-57 points off his best). Highest OBP has been .331 (minus .50), and highest SLG% .429 (minus .80) – all of which are significantly less.
There comes a time when a player either realizes his potential or doesn’t. Heyward might. Upton hasn’t.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
4:28 pm
I think the thing people don’t understand is that prospects are also currency, and having as many elite level prospects with upside is what other teams want in trade. They don’t want solid to average big leaguers with high floors. They want to take some risks once and a while. Sometimes it doesn’t work out, but sometimes you have to go for it and hope that the player is a star.
I’m not for ALL upside. That isn’t a good way to run a system. A good balance, but not strong one way or the other. Too many upside risky talents isn’t the best way to go either. It’s important to have some 100% big leaguers in the system like Pastornicky or Sean Gilmartin.
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
4:28 pm
Lew, who had the better offensive season? Who deserved more plate appearances based purely on performance? The results are in for 2011 and the answer is clear. There is no arguing that it was Prado at this point, and a few of us told everyone that all along. Yes, Prado was a thirdbaseman and could play first? What does that mean? Does that mean that as long as they got equal playing time in the outfield, it made sense? Does that mean that Heyward shouldn’t have been in the lineup when Prado was playing third or first, and therefore it makes sense that the better hitter got fewer plate appearances? At this point, the results are in. We don’t have to speculate as to who is likely to have the better season or to be better the rest of the way. It’s clear that Heyward was the better hitter and deserved at least something close to the same number of plate appearances, a lot closer than 27 games worth.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
4:31 pm
An it’s also draft philosophy. It’s not “Well, Albert Pujols was a 60th round pick so you can get a star whenever”(totally can’t remember what round he was selected, just trying to prove a point). That isn’t what I’m talking about and is the wrong way of looking at this, imo.
Lew
October 19th, 2011
4:33 pm
Shaun – Your argument is that Heyward should not be benched. He was never benched so Prado could play. He was benched because he had a lousy season. How in the world is a comparison to Prado vaguely relevant if he had no influence on whether or not Heyward played?
Lew
October 19th, 2011
4:35 pm
You COPULD reasonably argue whether or not Heywards should have played instead of Hinske, Constanza or Diaz. They all played in HIS position when he was on the bench. Yet, you hsse to continually compare him to Prado – who honestly had a better batting average, marginally lower (.318- .302) OBP and were virtually identical slugging percentage as Heyward.
nolie
October 19th, 2011
4:36 pm
13th round JFYI Efrim
RC
October 19th, 2011
4:36 pm
Efrim,
While I generally agree with you that it’s better to take high upside over certainty in the early rounds of the draft, in retrospect I can’t think of any major “upside” guys the Braves should have taken over Minor or Gilmartin. I do wish they would have spent the money needed to sign Stefan Sabol and Zachary Alford though. I’m worried that those type of no-signs are going to come back to bite us in the future (like failing to sign Brandon Belt out of HS, or being the runner up in trying to sign Felix Hernadez as an amatuer).
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
4:38 pm
Lew, also, there is no guessing at this point about who was better between Bourn and Upton from the trade deadline on. The results are in. We can look and see who was right.
Not saying the Braves made the wrong trade. It’s very possible, if not likely, that Upton would have cost the Braves much more in terms of prospects or that Upton just wasn’t available unless the Rays were blown away.
Also, Upton’s OPS+ in 2010 was essentially the same as it was in 2008. Oh, but you don’t like to look at context when it doesn’t fit your views, so we should just ignore context and look at only his basic OBP and SLG numbers. Also, his 2011 OPS+ is 115, his best since 2007. But, yeah, that doesn’t confirm your belief that he’s on the three-year downward spiral so you aren’t going to look at that.
RC
October 19th, 2011
4:38 pm
Shaun – Your argument is that Heyward should not be benched. He was never benched so Prado could play. He was benched because he had a lousy season. How in the world is a comparison to Prado vaguely relevant if he had no influence on whether or not Heyward played?
I’m not getting in the middle of this arguement, but just will point out that Shaun’s arguement is that Prado had a lousier than Heyward, yet he continued to play LF while Heyward was on the bench. Shaun is arguing that given the choices, Fredo could have played Constanza in LF, Heyward in RF, and benched Prado.
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
4:40 pm
who honestly had a better…
Better wOBA by Tango, and better runs-created using 5 different calculations, more hits, fewer k’s, more doubles… all in his worst season of his career.
RC
October 19th, 2011
4:43 pm
Josh Bell would have been a really nice draft pick by the Braves last year, but there was no way they were going to be willing to spend the money it was going to take to keep him from going to college (Pirates signed him for $5 million).
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
4:43 pm
RC, also, this idea that Prado playing third and some first explains why he got about 27 more games worth of plate appearances is a strange argument. What, Heyward couldn’t play right while Prado was at third or first? It’s acceptable to some that a player who didn’t play the same position as Heyward and therefore didn’t really take plate appearances away from Heyward and who was far worse, got significantly more plate appearances?
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
4:46 pm
TennesseePaul, so you’re using the wOBA and the runs created formulas that confirm what you believe instead of trying to determine which one is the most telling. Unfortunately that doesn’t get us anywhere.
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
4:46 pm
Shaun’s arguement is that Prado had a lousier than Heyward, yet he continued to play LF while Heyward was on the bench.
And that is the flaw in his argument. This event only happened 3 times during the season. “Continued to play” would imply more than 3 games over a 162 game season.
The remainder of the time Heyward was “benched” and Prado played was against LHP. No one on this planet could reasonably argue that Heyward should have been playing against LHP. His season was bad, but his platoon splits against LHP were dramatically worse.
Murph
October 19th, 2011
4:47 pm
Don’t forget Lew, that if you take out HBP, Prado’s numbers are slightly better than Heyward’s.
Not to add fuel to the fire, just wanted to throw that out there.
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
4:47 pm
so you’re using the wOBA and the runs created formulas that confirm what you believe instead of trying to determine which one is the most telling. Unfortunately that doesn’t get us anywhere
Right back at ya guy. Hence the PUP.
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
4:48 pm
What, Heyward couldn’t play right while Prado was at third or first?
3 Games. Three
CB
October 19th, 2011
4:49 pm
The guy over at MLBTR thinks Rollins will get 4yrs- 60million.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
4:50 pm
RC, I would of rather taken Mahtook over Gilmartin. I didn’t want another polished college lefty. Even so, I think he has a higher upside. I get they might think Gilmartin could rise faster and be used in a trade, but overall, I like Mikie Mahtook’s ceiling more than Gilmartin and I don’t like the strategy of drafting high floor, low ceiling signable players that will move quickly and be flipped for a trade. I don’t think that should be the intention of any team. If you draft a player, it should be because you envision them of reaching their potential and succeeding for the Braves.
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
4:50 pm
TennesseePaul, of all the metrics readily available, advanced and not-so-advanced, there are none that have Prado ahead of Heyward in 2011. I guess all of those are just a conspiracy to make Heyward look better than Prado, right? What’s a more likely conspiracy: that the readily available stats are part of a grand conspiracy or the fact that you are picking out the metrics that confirm what you believe about these players?
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
4:51 pm
if you take out HBP
This interests me again because I remember the weeping and gnashing of teeth claiming Heyward was too far back in the box for his stance. How’d he get hit so many times?
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
4:51 pm
13th round JFYI
Thanks, nolie!
Murph
October 19th, 2011
4:51 pm
The guy over at MLBTR thinks Rollins will get 4yrs- 60million.
Did all of the other available SS just get into a fiery bus accident in Venezuela or something? $15mil per year for Rollins? I’ll take Gonzo at $1mil per and spend my money elsewhere, thank you very much.
David O'Brien
October 19th, 2011
4:51 pm
Snotboogie: that (12:31) was funny.
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
4:52 pm
Murph, like I asked you yesterday, are you removing plate appearances along with HBP or are you just treating it as if those HBP would have been outs for both players by keeping plate appearances in there? I can see why you would want to remove HBP, because they don’t really reflect a hitter’s skills, but you also can’t punish a hitter for getting HBP and treat it as if he made an out.
Jake W.
October 19th, 2011
4:52 pm
World Series starts tonight, I got Texas over St. Louis, no deep though behind the pick, just know if St. Louis wins the whole damn thing we’re going to have to hear forever how they came from 10 1/2 back.
Murph
October 19th, 2011
4:53 pm
How’d he get hit so many times?
When your sole purpose in life is to walk, you find a way… you just find a way.
My guess is that he’s not as good as Prado is at avoiding pitches. Slower reflexes, poor conditioning, fast twitch muscles that have atrophied from too much time on bench.
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
4:55 pm
What’s funny is that I’ve yet to hear a reasonable answer as to whether the Braves played their best options? All I hear is “fanboy,” “poor season,” “disappointment,” and various other attacks directed at me instead of addressing the issues. In fact, it’s quite odd that I’m the villain and no one can address my arguments and offer up reasonable counterarguments. It’s all just name-calling and changing the subject to things that no one is refuting.
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
4:56 pm
Payne at 4:50pm #EpicFail again.
Conspiracy? I’ll let you play with that one. You seem to enjoy those.
You’re still upset over 3 games. You point to the number of plate appearances despite equivalent games played, and ignore batting order position, despite pointing out at the beginning of the season that lower position results in fewer plate appearances.
3 games Payne. That’s it. Prado played “over” Heyward 3 times. Three times in the course of the 162 game 6 month season Prado played against a RHP while Heyward sat on the bench.
Murph
October 19th, 2011
4:56 pm
Shaun, I’m too lazy to redo the math and remove them from PA’s… I’m guessing that, once removed, their numbers are still too similar to say something like “Prado was far worse than Heyward”… they are probably pretty close to the same level of fail.
RC
October 19th, 2011
4:59 pm
Efrim,
I really didn’t know much about Mahtook, so I just looked him up.
College CF who hits for power? Yeah, that’s the guy we should have taken…and of course the Rays did.
Murph
October 19th, 2011
5:00 pm
In fact, it’s quite odd that I’m the villain
Your approach makes you the villain, not so much your message. You get more bees with honey than you do with vinegar…
Have you ever been married, Shaun? I know that if I talked to Mrs Murph the way you talk to people on here, I would no longer be married. Sometimes she does stupid stuff, but I certainly don’t tell that she’s stupid for doing it.
If you think people on here “don’t get it” then try to help them “get it”. If they still don’t “get it”, then just move on with your life, man.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
5:01 pm
College CF who hits for power? Yeah, that’s the guy we should have taken…and of course the Rays did.
Not to mention he plays like Eric Byrnes, but actually has better tools/baseball IQ than Byrnes did.