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3,789 comments Add your comment
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
1:39 pm
Lew, “extremely poor” doesn’t answer the question of whether he was the best option, particularly against RHP. That continues to get overlooked in the scramble and the grasping to defend the decision to bench Heyward as often as they did.
It’s pretty simple. Don’t start with “well, they benched Heyward as often as they did so we should find justification in it.” Instead start with the question of whether the Braves went with the best options in enough games. In a lot of games they didn’t. In some games they put Schafer at leadoff, in some games they put Gonzalez second, in some games they refused to use Kimbrel in extra-innings on the road when they couldn’t afford to give up a run and in some games they benched Heyward when they shouldn’t have. Do we want to see the Braves giving themselves the best chance to win or do we want to defend the team’s lineup and bullpen decisions? I know which side of the spectrum I fall on.
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
1:39 pm
That’s not how Atlanta built its string of winners, and it’s not a strategy conducive to long-term success.
I copied and pasted this, then scrolled up to see you had re-posted and bolded this very statement.
I recall last week, or maybe two weeks ago, discussing the Draft with Lew trying to explain this exact very thing.
Just as I hope Heyward improves next year, I hope the Braves drop this signability draft philosophy.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
1:40 pm
I hope if you beat that drum load enough someone on Henry Aaron Blvd will hear you!
I wish our GM beat that drum, flange1. That is where it has to come from. He’s DeMacio’s boss, so he can send forth an overarching strategy that DeMacio carries out in his player development and drafting process. At least, that’s the way it should be. I don’t think Theo Epstein, Jon Daniels or Alex Anthonopolous would allow signability and high floors to be the strategy for the team. Wren has to sign off on it, I would think.
Lew
October 19th, 2011
1:43 pm
Shaun- He was performing poorly and got benched. I can’t understand why you just can’t accept this as fact and just move on. .218, .309, .388 It sucks. Period. He was bad all season long and it was not until he WAS benched that there was any improvement whatsoever.
You don’t seem to understand that sometimes a move is made to aid a player’s development. When he was benched, the Braves held a huge lead in the WC and the emphasis was on getting Heyward back to what thy thought he would be. Apparently, by looking at the improvement in his numbers AFTER he was benched, it had a positive effect.
Lew
October 19th, 2011
1:45 pm
Efrim and Ten Paul – I see and understand your position on the draft, but what how would it help the Braves to draft players they couldn’t sign – kind of like the Astros?
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
1:45 pm
TennesseePaul, there you go again. It’s not a question of whether he was the worst rightfielder in the league, etc. It’s a question of the Braves’ options. But let’s overlook that because we want to defend the team’s decisions. I could care less about defending Fredi or the front office. I just want to see them give themselves the best chance to win. But if your goal is to justify the team’s decisions, I’m sure you aren’t going to approach the question of whether or not they played the best options. You are going to try to find justification for their decisions. That’s fine if you are a Fredi Gonzalez or Braves’ front office fanboy.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
1:46 pm
I recall last week, or maybe two weeks ago, discussing the Draft with Lew trying to explain this exact very thing.
Just as I hope Heyward improves next year, I hope the Braves drop this signability draft philosophy.
That’s pretty much why I posted it…..just kidding, Lew.
I’m not sure people get how seriously bad this is for the future of the Braves organization. And I don’t think it should just fall on DeMacio for player evaluations and Terry for draft budget. Wren needs to be held responsible just like he should for the hiring of Fredi Gonzalez. He’s in charge of it all. He needs to have a firm viewpoint that drafting high upside players is the route to go when trying to build a consistent winner. You win with stars in sports. NBA, NHL, NFL and MLB all the same. Stars win titles. The Detroit Pistons of 2003(or whenever they won it all with a bunch of “team players”) doesn’t win for long. You need upside and stars. Only way to do that is to take risks in the drafting process.
Lew
October 19th, 2011
1:49 pm
I would imagine that with the draft – like with the team – Wren is given a salary target and exceeds it at his own peril. I think the decision comes from higher up than FW.
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
1:50 pm
5 games. Of which McLouth played in 2 of them and Biff played in 3.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
1:51 pm
I see and understand your position on the draft, but what how would it help the Braves to draft players they couldn’t sign – kind of like the Astros?
Actually the Astros drafted George Springer in the first round, a move I doubt the new Braves regime would ever make.
The Phillies have a similar draft budget, Lew. Yet they go for risky, athletic players like Jiwan James and Anthony Gose. I’m not saying they need to go after ALL risky players that may not make the majors, but they haven’t even sprinkled them in the past three-four drafts. It’s a huge concern. Increasing the budget even 2 million would certainly help, but it’s also their player evaluations that I disagree with.
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
1:53 pm
how would it help the Braves to draft players they couldn’t sign
It isn’t that they couldn’t sign them, it’s that they’ve constrained their budget for drafting and player development. These players are signable for the right money. Unfortunately the Braves aren’t investing in the draft like they used to.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
1:53 pm
Wren is given a salary target and exceeds it at his own peril. I think the decision comes from higher up than FW.
Probably Terry and JS. Still up to Frank to lobby for more money or a change in draft strategy.
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
1:55 pm
There you go again Payne, arguing over 5 games.
5.
five.
Think subway. It’s such a small number companies use it as a jingle for how cheap their product is.
60 lb head
October 19th, 2011
1:55 pm
Shaun Payne-More from this screw ball.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/890808-jason-heyward-in-2011-why-some-think-the-braves-benched-him-too-often
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
1:56 pm
Probably Terry and JS. Still up to Frank to lobby for more money or a change in draft strategy.
Yes. And I would think with JS being at the helm for all those drafts which produced talent, it’d be an easy lobby.
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
1:56 pm
Lew, where’s is it clear that benching him improved his numbers. Just because it happened doesn’t mean there is a reason to believe that the two were related. Maybe if they play him, he turns it around quicker or more dramatically, maybe not. No one could possibly know.
And please, can we stop bringing up points that no one is refuting? Yes, he had a poor season. But that’s irrelevant to the discussion. That’s irrelevant to whether he was the best option during some of the games in which he was benched.
Uggla had a poor first half. Prado had a poor season. Gonzalez had a poor season. Did the Braves bench these guys as regularly as Heyward? No. Because they were the best options in most games. That’s what it comes down to. If the Braves had better options, no one could argue with them benching Heyward against right-handed pitching or benching any of those other players.
It seems that the idea is to defend the decisions of the powers that be and to not question whether certain decisions gave the team the best chance to win.
Lew
October 19th, 2011
1:56 pm
Efrim – Big difference between spending and philosophy, I suppose. Maybe they believe that if they keep taking college pitchers that are close to being MLB ready that they can turn around and use them to acquire the pieces they need since they have lots of pitching already lined up.
I flat out don’t know. Maybe their philosophy changes in the next year or two after their group of draftees comes to the bigs and they spend what they have next year with the contracts going away and go from their to evaluate what they need going forward.
Lew
October 19th, 2011
1:58 pm
Sahun – Where is it clear? ASre you freaking serious? I showed you his numbers throughout the season – the only change was them dropping even lower. Then I showed his final numbers – acheived by an improvement AFTER he was benched. I fail, to see why you can’t see or understand this. It’s pretty damned clear to everyone else.
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
1:59 pm
There you go again Payne, ignoring the fact that you have spent the entire day arguing over the line up of FIVE games.
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
2:00 pm
Maybe their philosophy changes in the next year or two…
We can hope. Because this is a path toward perpetual mediocrity.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
2:01 pm
Maybe they believe that if they keep taking college pitchers that are close to being MLB ready that they can turn around and use them to acquire the pieces they need since they have lots of pitching already lined up.
It’s possible, but I disagree with that strategy and it’s going to hurt at some point.
Maybe their philosophy changes in the next year or two after their group of draftees comes to the bigs and they spend what they have next year with the contracts going away and go from their to evaluate what they need going forward.
My hope is that they used 2010 and 2011 to draft close to majors college prospects who can get to the middle levels quickly since it was a baron part of the system. We will find this out in 2012, as I don’t believe I have ever seen the Rookie and Low level minors with such little talent.
Also, and I can’t definitively prove this, it seems as though they are spending less in the International Free agent market too. Edward Salcedo was signed in February of 2010, I believe. I haven’t seen a significant international signing since. They do well in Panama, and always have found good players in countries that you wouldn’t expect, but is seems like they are investing less in that area of player development too.
Lew
October 19th, 2011
2:03 pm
Shaun – By the time that Heyward saw pine time, Uggla was tearing up MLB, Prado played two positions, neither of which were Heyward’s position and Goinzalez, despite his poor offense, was playing incredible defense.
Snotboogie
October 19th, 2011
2:05 pm
It isn’t that they couldn’t sign them, it’s that they’ve constrained their budget for drafting and player development. These players are signable for the right money.
That’s not the only thing though. In the earlier chat thing, Mahtook was mentioned.
Gilmartin signed for 1.134 M
Mahtook signed for 1.150 M
Both numbers are obviously not confirmed, but that 16 M difference isnt the only reason we didnt sign him right?
TnBrian
October 19th, 2011
2:06 pm
Shaun, you’re right on RBI’s. Not to be a smart ass, but I was just ribbing you saying RBI is so important.
Good, well said at 1:29. And yes, I read every word of it.
Snotboogie
October 19th, 2011
2:07 pm
60 lb head
That’s how it works every time. He preps for some flimsy article like that and then spends the rest of the week repeating the same stuff he has in the article.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
2:07 pm
John Manuel with a much more refreshing and optimistic view of the Braves recent draft philosophy. I think it’s a wait and see approach until 2012, mostly. Still very concerned, but like I said, it can be rectified with a strong 2012 Rule IV player draft:
Roger (Greenville, SC): Why have the Braves become so conservative in the draft?
John Manuel: Well, I don’t think last year’s draft was conservative; in 2010 they took a prep middle-of-the-diamond guy with their top pick in Lipka, and drafted several JC guys high. Atlanta has had tons of JC success lately — Kimbrel, Venters, Hanson, Medlen … why would you NOT hit the JCs hard when you found that kind of talent there? The motivating factor for their move to JC was the rising cost of high school talent. I suspect that’s a major reason for their college-heavy draft in 2011. It’s startling to see them sign just two high school players (hope my math is right there), but I suspect this is just the way their board fell. I know they were in on several of the HS pitchers who went just ahead of them and just got their pocket picked. So I don’t think it’s a vast departure of philosophy necessarily, it just looks like this is how their board fell.
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
2:08 pm
Paying over slot in the draft is a better investment than overpaying for major leaguers, in many cases. The draft already suppresses what a player could make because the teams have more leverage than the player.
If a top high school player was in the open market, he could command a lot more than he could command from a team that drafted him. A team isn’t competing with other teams in the case of the draft. They are just competing with possibly colleges offering scholarships (relatively easy for a team to blow colleges out of the water in the bidding process). And with college players, there is very little leverage for the player.
With major league free agents, you are typically paying a player in his decline years and he’s commanding a salary based on what he’s done in his peak and what he’s done compared to other major leaguers. With amateurs, even the highest paid amateurs aren’t going to command that kind of money.
TnBrian
October 19th, 2011
2:10 pm
Shaun, are you Italian? Nothing wrong with that at all, just saying they’ve been known to argue relentlessly to make their points.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
2:11 pm
I know they were in on several of the HS pitchers who went just ahead of them and just got their pocket picked. So I don’t think it’s a vast departure of philosophy necessarily, it just looks like this is how their board fell.
I heard they were on RHP Robert Stephenson, who was drafted right before they selected by the Reds. I think that was the guy they wanted, and he has more upside than Gilmartin and is a high school arm. Again, just what I heard. Whether it was signability, draft philosophy or whatever, many people don’t believe the player evaluations were good ones.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
2:12 pm
JT (Charlotte): What are your thoughts on Tommy La Stella? He seems to be a nice sleeper draft pick for the Braves.
John Manuel: Great debut and he has a nice lefthanded bat. I have had him compared to Kevin Melillo several times so I wouldn’t get terribly excited, and I don’t think he’s as athletic as Melillo. I also doubt he has similar mustache-growing skills. Great debut but more than likely a LF defensively than a 2b, and then we’re really making demands on the bat. More likely a good organizational player.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
2:14 pm
Paying over slot in the draft is a better investment than overpaying for major leaguers, in many cases. The draft already suppresses what a player could make because the teams have more leverage than the player.
Excellent point. Braves don’t agree, but I do.
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
2:15 pm
TennesseePaul, didn’t the Braves miss out on a one-game playoff by one win? Didn’t they miss out on the wild card by two wins? Who knows what would have happened had the Braves made the appropriate decisions regarding Heyward’s playing time, regarding Schafer batting leadoff, regarding Gonzalez batting second, regarding Kimbrel pitching in tied, extra-inning road games? Imagine if they made the appropriate decisions with all or most of these players and scenarios. Don’t you want a major league manager and team to make the best decisions, regardless of whether it’s worth 1 run or 20 wins? I certainly do. I believe in holding major league teams and managers to the highest standards possible. Maybe you think there is a higher league where teams and managers should be held to the appropriate standards. But I think the majors is pretty much it.
jeffrey d
October 19th, 2011
2:16 pm
What leverage does a high schooler have? Is it just “If I don’t like your offer, I’m going to college”?
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
2:17 pm
Be overaggressive in the draft. There are of course going to be hits and misses. But x million dollars there is likely to go further than x million dollars in the major league free agent market, if your scouting and player development is halfway decent.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
2:18 pm
Is it just “If I don’t like your offer, I’m going to college”?
Pretty much. Gerrit Cole(1st overall selection this past year) was selected 30th(?) by the Yankees a few years back and decided to reject the offer and go to UCLA. Worked out well for him….
Murph
October 19th, 2011
2:19 pm
Shaun, if you needed to pound a nail into a wall but had no hammer, what would you do?
Well, you really have two options… you can first look around to find an object that meets your relative expectations of what the hammer is and how it performs, or you can jump in the car and go buy a hammer.
Say you don’t have the funds or time to go buy a hammer, so you choose a shoe to pound the nail into the wall. You saw a video on YouTube of someone doing it, and it seems like a good idea. After a couple of swings it clearly doesn’t work.
You turn the shoe around and try pounding the nail into the wall with the heal instead of with the toe. This also doesn’t work, meanwhile your wall is covered with scuff marks and the paint is chipping away.
Do you keep trying to pound that nail into the wall with the shoe or, at some point, do you decide to give something else a try? A hardcover book perhaps, or maybe the handle of a screwdriver?
If something is clearly not working, doesn’t have a history of working, then why would you continue to use it? At some point, the sane person would give up their misguided attempt and experiment, test the qualities of other objects to see if they might perform better, rather than feebly pound on the nail with the shoe.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
2:19 pm
Be overaggressive in the draft.
Upside. Risks. You win with stars. Average players can be found anywhere. Stars can’t. Invest in the draft and you have a better chance of striking it rich.
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
2:20 pm
jeffrey d, yeah, I think that’s pretty much it. I suppose a high schooler could play independent league ball, where he might not make as much money as a Division I college scholarship and education is worth.
N8
October 19th, 2011
2:24 pm
Webster’s definition of Dumbass……
see Brave New World post at 12:46″
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
2:27 pm
Murph, if the shoe or some other object is the best option available to you and you know it, it’s clear, you keep going with that object. You don’t experiment with other objects simply because it’s not a hammer, if that object is the best option available to you.
Efrim, yep. If you have to rely on finding stars amongst the MLB free agent pool, that’s going to get awfully expensive for any team besides the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels and maybe one or two others. And if you are relying on finding stars amongst only amateurs that will sign at or below slot, you are hoping to hit the lottery because that’s a lot less likely than going big on the stud amateur that you have to pay what close to what he’s asking.
BravesFanSince80's
October 19th, 2011
2:27 pm
Murph: hee hee hee:)
BravesFanSince80's
October 19th, 2011
2:32 pm
Shaun: PLEASE stop with all the “best option” horse s h i t! Jason Heyward had a p i s s poor year and EVERYBODY knows it, stop beating everybody’s heads against the wall with such a stupid and, dare I say it, biased argument! I hope he comes out of this smelling like a rose, but he did nothing to convince me or anybody else that he was the “best option” for about 3/4 of the season the exception coming right at the end when he appeared to wake up, straighten up and played ball a little more like he was capable of. But most of all, you KEEP saying that same question over and over and I answered you quite a while back, NNNNOOOOOOOO Jason Heyward wasn’t the best option for most of the season and should have sat the bench more than he did. He was bad enough at times that it would have been difficult to start him at AAA! My two year old son woulda been a better option than him for part of the year because my two year old son woulda drawn a walk and at least GOT ON BASE! STOOOOOOOOPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Murph
October 19th, 2011
2:33 pm
Murph, if the shoe or some other object is the best option available to you and you know it, it’s clear, you keep going with that object. You don’t experiment with other objects simply because it’s not a hammer, if that object is the best option available to you.
Ah, but therein lies the problem… your “know” is really just a bunch of assumptions that you’ve convinced yourself to be fact.
It’s not about staying with one thing because you think it will perform better, it’s about looking at the performance and making adjustments when what happens isn’t what you expected to happen.
I get your point about “best available option”, but if what you think is the best available option doesn’t work, you have to be willing to try something else.
Fredi tried Heyward in every available spot in the order except cleanup, I’m sure Larry offered his advice, but in the end turning the shoe around didn’t help and they chose to try a different tool. It really is that simple.
N8
October 19th, 2011
2:37 pm
Shaun what you fail to state in your article that was posted, and in all of your arguments about Heyward being the “best” outfield option is how he was playing at the time of the benching.
July and August were simply horrible. His strong April and decent finish to the season skewed his overall numbers to look semi-respectable and certainly respectable to the rest of the outfield options.
In July and August combined he went:
.211/.281/.394/.675 with 6 HR and 20 RBI in 44 games. 2 of those HR and 7 of those RBI came courtesy of a 3-run HR and a GS. So in the other 42 games, he had 4 HR and 13 RBI.
But don’t let the fact get in the way. I’ll let you post and show what the other OF options were doing during those months. I watched the games. So I know who gave us a better shot at winning.
Good luck.
McFann O O o
October 19th, 2011
2:40 pm
Haha! LOVE this tweet from Jeff Schultz!
Media/ESPN loves railing on Atlanta fans for non-sellouts. So why is nobody ripping St. Louis for World Series not being sold out yet?
Go get ‘em!!
DAP
October 19th, 2011
2:42 pm
shaun if the shoe or some other object is the best option available to you and you know it, it’s clear, you keep going with that object. You don’t experiment with other objects simply because it’s not a hammer, if that object is the best option available to you.
but you have to try a few other items to know if the shoe is your best option. take a few whacks with the book, or whatever, and then say…the shoe was leaving scuff marks, but its probably my best choice.
heyward didnt sit much, but as bad as he played, the braves needed to at least try someone else, to see if they could do better.
great analogy, murph.
McFann O O o
October 19th, 2011
2:45 pm
I heard Pujols and the Cardinals were one the cover of this week’s Sports Illustrated, so that’s good news…
Ha! Just hope it’s not in the waiting room when I visit the oral-surgeon tomorrow…that won’t be a help…
McFann O O o
October 19th, 2011
2:46 pm
Murph—
Perfect analogy! I love it…
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
2:48 pm
Murph, coming into the season, everyone thought Heyward was the best available option in rightfield. In hindsight, he was the best available option among all Braves outfielders, certainly against right-handed pitchers, when taking into account both offense and defense. So at this point, not only was it an assumption that he was the best available option but we also know for a fact that he was the best available option. Doesn’t mean he was any good. Doesn’t mean he wasn’t disappointing.
BravesFanSince80, yes, let’s stop with the “best available option.” The Braves should not play their best options, by any means.
Also, it’s an objective fact that Heyward performed best among all Braves outfielders this season and therefore was the best option, certainly against right-handers. That’s something that can’t be disputed with facts. That doesn’t mean he was any good. That doesn’t mean he lived up to expectations and wasn’t a disappointment. That doesn’t mean you have to like him or dislike him. That is what it is. And if you wanted the Braves to play their best options, you should think Heyward should have gotten at least close to the same number or more plate appearances than the likes of Alex Gonzalez and Martin Prado. If you didn’t want to see the Braves go with their best options, you are probably accepting of the fact that Alex Gonzalez and Martin Prado got more plate appearances than Jason Heyward this season.
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
2:50 pm
N8, two months tell you very little if anything about whether a player is your best option. If it did, Uggla would have been done as a regular fairly early in the season. Thank God the Braves understand sample size to at least some degree.
N8
October 19th, 2011
2:51 pm
And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round…….And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round……. And the broken record keeps spinning round and round…….
BravesFanSince80's
October 19th, 2011
2:52 pm
all I’m accepting right now is that you’re a pompous a s s! what would be in the Atlanta Braves’ best interest or “best option” to coin an unpopular phrase, would be for you to go back to New York and put the pinstripes back on dude. Or maybe Boston, with a name like Shaun you should fit right in there!
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
2:52 pm
DAP, you don’t need to try different things if you already know what your best option is or at least you know what is very likely your best option. Sure, you can try something else if you actually think that something else is going to essentially go against the overwhelming odds.
N8
October 19th, 2011
2:54 pm
“Thank God the Braves understand sample size to at least some degree.”
OK.
Arkansas Transplant
October 19th, 2011
2:54 pm
Just because it happened doesn’t mean there is a reason to believe that the two were related.
This is very odd… is it just me or does this sound very familiar to the odd term of cause and effect?
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
2:55 pm
For about a half page, there was some solid discussion about the draft. Then, same old crud.
DAP
October 19th, 2011
2:58 pm
shaun And if you wanted the Braves to play their best options, you should think Heyward should have gotten at least close to the same number or more plate appearances than the likes of Alex Gonzalez and Martin Prado. If you didn’t want to see the Braves go with their best options, you are probably accepting of the fact that Alex Gonzalez and Martin Prado got more plate appearances than Jason Heyward this season.
youre not being very smart here. heyward may have ended up with as many plate appearances as gonzalez or prado if he had stayed healthy all year (like gonzo) or played 3 different positions (like prado). you do realize that prado was chipper’s #1 backup, right?
honestly, that was a stupid thing to say. you arent thinking this through.
Bat Masterson
October 19th, 2011
2:58 pm
Shaun, if you needed to pound a nail into a wall but had no hammer, what would you do? _ Murph
If its a common nail you use the palm of your hand, a finish nail, might better not.
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
2:59 pm
Arkansas Transplant, it’s more like saying, “when I wash my car it rains.” Does that mean that me washing my car caused it to rain? Of course not. Just like it’s not necessarily true that benching Heyward as often as the Braves did caused him to play better towards the end of the season. Very difficult to prove causation but there is certainly absolutely no reason to believe there was causation there. It seems just as likely the same thing or better would have happened if they played him more. Maybe, maybe not. But there is certainly nothing conclusive to go on to state that benching him definitely caused him to play better later in the season.
Arkansas Transplant
October 19th, 2011
3:01 pm
Shuan – he was the best available option among all Braves outfielders, certainly against right-handed pitchers, when taking into account both offense and defense.
And you know this how? How can you be so certain? Did they give everyone in the organization the opportunity to prove they could do it better? This is a blind statement, just cause the very fact they allowed him to stay in the majors proves they had faith in him and gave him more opportunity than someone else would have been given. How many teams would have stuck with an option in RF, when clearly he was the worst option in all of baseball? What part of “he was the worst RF in the majors” don’t you understand? You do realize no matter who they brought in couldn’t do any worse, right? I mean if your last and you stay last, your still last!
RC
October 19th, 2011
3:01 pm
Efrim,
I miss those pages. This whole argument with no side budging on anything is like watching a presidential debate, just not as funny.
DAP
October 19th, 2011
3:02 pm
shaun you don’t need to try different things if you already know what your best option is or at least you know what is very likely your best option.
but you dont until you try it. and dont say you know, because you dont know. you are saying heyward was your best option using numbers that have already been posted. you are lying if you say you know.
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
3:02 pm
didn’t the Braves miss out on a one-game playoff by one win? Didn’t they miss out on the wild card by two wins? Who knows what would have happened had the Braves made the appropriate decisions regarding Heyward’s playing time
Right Payne. So now, no player can have an off-day during the season?
What was it you said last week, something about how 10 to 15 games off for a starter a season isn’t going to negatively impact the out come of the season?
What was it you said earlier this season, 140 games of Heyward is better than 162 games of any other player? (that’s 22 games off)
What was you said a year or so ago, it isn’t appropriate to point to just one play or one game as the cause of the loss of the game or season as so many different variables go into a game and season?
Essentially Payne, with your entire body of copy-paste “work” on this blog up to this point, you have a choice from hence forth concerning Heyward’s 5 games sitting against RHP this season. Either (a) you continue arguing that those 5 games were important to the team and contradict everything you have espoused before. Or (b) you reaffirm everything you have espoused before and acknowledge your point on Heyward’s 5 games on the bench is moot.
By the way, I was curious so I looked it up. The team went 2-3 in those 5 games. Biff hit .300 with a .900 OPS including two walks, a home run, 2 runs scored and 3 RBI in those three games.
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
3:04 pm
DAP, he also would have ended up with close to as many plate appearances if the Braves utilized him more.
Arkansas Transplant
October 19th, 2011
3:06 pm
It seems just as likely the same thing or better would have happened if they played him more. Maybe, maybe not.
I think I’ll pick, maybe not. Cause he was playing everyday and look as bad one day as the next. Kind of like it’s been raining all week but you still stray your car off and try to reason it was the water from the hose that washed it off instead of the rain.
DAP
October 19th, 2011
3:06 pm
shaun he also would have ended up with close to as many plate appearances if the Braves utilized him more.
if only he played 3rd base, hunh?
Bat Masterson
October 19th, 2011
3:08 pm
Of course, after reading a few pages of why Heyward should always play, I could see where one might be tempted to try to drive a sixteen penny finish nail into the wall with one’s forehead.
Murph
October 19th, 2011
3:08 pm
it’s more like saying, “when I wash my car it rains.”
If you washed your car every Sunday and it rained every Monday, wouldn’t you at some point try and wash your car on Saturday to see if it rained on Sunday instead?
Shaun, have you ever played the game Angry Birds? It’s pretty cool… you have to knock stuff down using birds shot from a slingshot. I really, really like the yellow birds. You tap on the screen after firing them and they kick into this turbo mode and triple their speed. They do great against wood… but not very good against ice. Nope, the tiny little blue birds that break into 3 separate birds when you tap on the screen… those are the birds you want when you need to get through ice.
I didn’t realize that when I first got the game. Took some experimenting to finally figure out which bird was best in which situation.
DAP
October 19th, 2011
3:10 pm
i thought last off season was slim as far as available payroll. is year it is really tight. could make for a ho-hum winter unless the braves get really involved with trades that none of us are predicting.
abwright
October 19th, 2011
3:11 pm
Efrim, October 19th, 2011, 2:55 pm … “For about a half page, there was some solid discussion about the draft. Then, same old crud.”
My wall is definitely scuffed. If I catch the SoB’s who did it, watch out!
Seriously, I was actually digging into the draft discussion. I enjoy all the stuff about both the draft and the minor leagues (especially richbrave’s updates).
It seems that the Braves had done very well with the philosophy that decanted Hanson, Heyward, Freeman, Prado, Beachy, Minor, Delgado, Teheran, Kimbrel, Medlen, … to the majors.
Perhaps, since this core of players will be here for a few years, the Braves can save their money for a couple of years.
But, they need to get the replacements for those players into the system pretty soon if they’re going to develop by the time last year’s rookies are ready for free agency.
I also wonder if the upcoming CBA isn’t playing into the Braves’ plans. What if the CBA changes the terms of arbitration and free agency?
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
3:11 pm
two months tell you very little if anything about whether a player is your best option. If it did, Uggla would have been done as a regular fairly early in the season.
Interesting, you believed it told you enough that Freeman wasn’t a good option at firstbase. So much so you wrote an article calling for him to be sent back to the minors.
DAP
October 19th, 2011
3:11 pm
murph, ice? i think thats glass the blue brids bust through.
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
3:12 pm
DAP, Heyward got 136 fewer PA than Prado. Five per game…that’s a little over 27 games worth. So please don’t give me that it was all because Prado played more positions. That would be valid if maybe the difference in plate appearances was a handful of games worth. But 27?
And you’re right. You don’t know for certain whether he’s your best option. But you have all the evidence–his performance in the minors, his performance in the majors, his skills, his tools, his age. So you know what’s likely. And in hindsight all that information was correct and it turns out he was the best option.
TennesseePaul, giving a player off-days for rest, etc. is necessary. Giving a player days off when he doesn’t need rest, simply because they don’t realize he’s the best option on that day, is inexcusable.
Also, if they wanted “Biff” in the lineup, a) they should have stopped him from waxing George McFly’s car and b) they should have played him more in leftfield against righties while Chipper was in the lineup. Heyward was not the appropriate guy to bench in that situation, if they wanted to see more of “Biff.”
Arkansas Transplant
October 19th, 2011
3:13 pm
TennesseePaul, if we went 2 and 3 when Heyward didn’t start against RHP, wouldn’t that mean he’s only arguing about 3 games instead? I mean since he stated he’s an Atlanta Braves fan and not a fanboy for Heyward.
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
3:13 pm
It seems that the Braves had done very well with the philosophy that decanted Hanson, Heyward, Freeman, Prado, Beachy, Minor, Delgado, Teheran, Kimbrel, Medlen, … to the majors.
Perhaps, since this core of players will be here for a few years, the Braves can save their money for a couple of years.
Yes they did do well with those players. And then they changed their approach. Or the draft changed under them and they failed to address course.
As to the second line, that’s a terrible way to go about it.
McFann O O o
October 19th, 2011
3:14 pm
Murph re: Angry Birds—
That is so true…
Those white birds that (don’t) drop the bombs cann be so obnoxious sometimes, though…ugh…
Bat Masterson
October 19th, 2011
3:14 pm
I’m beginning to hate Heyward
McFann O O o
October 19th, 2011
3:15 pm
I always think of it as being ice, too…
abwright
October 19th, 2011
3:15 pm
RC, October 19th, 2011, 3:01 pm … “This whole argument with no side budging on anything is like watching a presidential debate, just not as funny.”
Laugh about it. Shout about it.
When you’ve got to choose, every way you look at it you lose.
brian
October 19th, 2011
3:17 pm
investing in the draft is a lot cheaper than investing in free agents. Being a mid market team the Braves have the opportunity to do both. They can invest in the draft like the Royals, Nationals, Marlins, etc., all who have top young players rising through their systems, but they can also sign some free agents or make a trade or two to get us to the top.
Now if the Braves are taking players with high floors but not as high ceilings in the draft but going for it with international signings (like Teheran and Delgado, Salcedo was also a high risk/high reward signing) then that is OK. The Braves will turn into the Pirates of the 1995-2009 variety if they simply draft on signability and get cheap
Murph
October 19th, 2011
3:17 pm
McFann, I used to hate the white birds, but have learned to use their post-bomb drop flight trajectory to my advantage.
DAP, I’m pretty sure it’s ice, although I could be wrong.
TennesseePaul
October 19th, 2011
3:19 pm
Giving a player days off when he doesn’t need rest, simply because they don’t realize he’s the best option on that day, is inexcusable.
You do realize this is a false statement for which you have no facts to back it up. (a) You do not know he did not need rest. (b) You do not know what management “realized” or not. Your point is argumentative, speculative and unfounded.
giving a player off-days for rest, etc. is necessary.
Heyward was off for 5 days in a 162 game season which you are attempting to make out as something critical to the entire course of the season, thus contradicting everything you have ever said.
This argument of yours too shall go down with the tags #Payne and #EpicFail.
DAP
October 19th, 2011
3:19 pm
shaun DAP… you’re right.
thanks shaun. i knew youd come around.
Murph
October 19th, 2011
3:19 pm
I’m beginning to hate Heyward
I’ve learned to separate my “Hey Shaun, Heyward sucks” posts from my “Go Heyward Go!” while watching games.
I want the kid to be totally awesome and think he will be… someday.
abwright
October 19th, 2011
3:20 pm
I’m starting to think that the Great Heyward debate is akin to religion. After all, the North-going Zax and the South-going Zax were religious zealots, too.
And religious discussion is specifically against the blog rules.
DAP
October 19th, 2011
3:21 pm
murph I’m pretty sure it’s ice, although I could be wrong.
you were also pretty sure that donut bag was safely within reach, i bet. :- )
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
3:21 pm
TennesseePaul, I wasn’t evaluating Freeman solely on two months. And it wasn’t that I thought Freeman would be bad or that he should be in the minors. I wrote about Mike Napoli and how adding him would have been a bold move. It would have given them a third catcher, another right-handed bat and he could have shared time with Freeman. That was the focus of the article. The only part where I mentioned Freeman in the minors was when I stated that if he continued to struggle, Napoli could have been given the firstbase job and Freeman sent to the minors. Apparently you glossed over the “if” because it didn’t confirm your disagreement.
Oh, and Freeman was something like a slightly-below-average offensive firstbaseman this season. Was that article way off base? Napoli would not have been an upgrade?
Oh, and by the way, how did BJ Upton do from the trade deadline on?
Arkansas Transplant
October 19th, 2011
3:22 pm
I want the kid to be totally awesome
You know he’s a bum and doesn’t have a prayer.
nolie
October 19th, 2011
3:24 pm
Young with a career .304/.350/.451 line. Solid. Makes me think of Martin – just a solid hitter.
because that line was put up in Texas it only equals a 106 OPS+. nothing really special
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
3:25 pm
TennesseePaul, Heyward got 27 games worth of plate appearances fewer than Prado. You think needing rest explains that big a difference in plate appearances?
And are you looking at games played? Are you taking into account that if Heyward gets a pinch-hitting opportunity or comes in for defense, that counts as a game, even though he should have been starting essentially every game against RHP.
Murph
October 19th, 2011
3:25 pm
you were also pretty sure that donut bag was safely within reach, i bet.
WOW… was that really called for, all because we disagree about the clear surface obstacles in Angry Birds?
Oh, and DAP, if it’s glass, then why is there an achievement called “Ice Breaker” that can be earned for breaking the ice/glass objects?
Bay Area Steve
October 19th, 2011
3:27 pm
“you were also pretty sure that donut bag was safely within reach, i bet.” – DAP
Winner, winner. Chicken dinner.
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
3:27 pm
nolie, Young had a 124 OPS+ this season.
Murph
October 19th, 2011
3:27 pm
Oh, and Freeman was something like a slightly-below-average offensive firstbaseman this season.
Solution: Teach Fredi to play RF. Two birds, one stone.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
3:27 pm
As to the second line, that’s a terrible way to go about it.
There is a draft. Every June. And every team…..yada yada yada. I’ve said it many a time. No need repeating.
I also wonder if the upcoming CBA isn’t playing into the Braves’ plans. What if the CBA changes the terms of arbitration and free agency?
From what I am reading, I don’t think there is going to be much change to the draft or free agent compensation. I’d love something to be done to the Elias rankings, at least.
Bat Masterson
October 19th, 2011
3:28 pm
Yeah, I don’t hate Heyward. I think he will be just fine next year.
Shaun
October 19th, 2011
3:30 pm
If you reasonably and logically argue that Heyward was the best outfielder for the Braves this season, certainly against right-handed pitching, and therefore should have received more playing time, you are a “fanboy.” If you blindly defend Fredi Gonzalez and the Braves front office by calling people names like “fanboy” and by ignoring the question of whether the Braves played their best options as often as they should have, you are reasonable. I get it.
Bat Masterson
October 19th, 2011
3:32 pm
You’re not a reasonable man, Shaun.
Efrim
October 19th, 2011
3:32 pm
because that line was put up in Texas it only equals a 106 OPS+. nothing really special
I hear ya. I still think he is a solid player and from 2004 – 2011 he’s actually been even better: .312/.360/.463 , 113 OPS+….
Arkansas Transplant
October 19th, 2011
3:33 pm
Murph, your beginning to talk like Shaun.. reference your usage of the “Oh, and” phrase in your 3:25 to Shaun’s 3:21. This is scary stuff.