11:00 pm October 6, 2011, by David O'Brien
October 7th, 20114:11 pm
T for Texas, I saw scoots’s post. So if a player struggles through 31 games and 143 PA, we should assume that’s who he is. That’s how we should think, right? I mean, that’s what the Braves did with Dan Uggla, right?
I knew there were people that don’t grasp the concept of sample size and that it’s important but I never knew it was this bad.
600-1200 situational PAs? LOL. You are sad.
Actually it’s as many plate appearances as it takes for his premise to end up appearing true.
And since a lot of players will never rack up those kinda PAs, discard more of them and attribute the remaining to “statistical anomalies”.
Brave New World
DOB, read that Royals are targeting Jurgens as their Starting Pitcher…, Do you see that happening? If so who would we get back in the trade?
October 7th, 20114:12 pm
Would anyone want Carlos Quinton from the White Sox for LF?
October 7th, 20114:13 pm
Shaun & Robert
I’m going to the grocery store
North Georgia Braves Fan
October 7th, 20114:14 pm
DOB great job as usual this year! Thanks for the blogs!
Brave New World
I’ve been saying for a while who we need to target from KC.
October 7th, 20114:15 pm
Snotboogie, okay, try 500 PA. 143 is not enough.
Keep your phone camera handy this time.
October 7th, 20114:17 pm
And if the brief is written by an unethical sort, what good will reading the brief again do?
Sounds like many of you are Roberts. You believe that the Braves losing all those postseason series was an indication that they were chokers, that they didn’t have the mental toughness to win, and the Bobby Cox didn’t lead them in the right ways, etc. After all, all those postseasons were a large enough sample because they made up 100 percent of the postseasons that the Braves were in.
Oh, but I guess the sample size problem doesn’t apply to the Braves in the postseason. It only applies to Yankees, especially high-priced Yankees and former Yankees that left the Braves for more money.
October 7th, 20114:18 pm
This is from the Royals article about targeting JJ. That guys is a lunatic and has no idea what he is talking about.
He is showing degrading skills (fastball and health) along with a skill set that is comparable to pitchers already on the Royals staff. If he was an available FA, I would not mind taking a chance with a minor league deal hoping he could improve. He is not an answer for improving the pitching staff.
October 7th, 20114:20 pm
DOB, have you talked to #6 at all about the state of the Braves? I’d be interested to hear his opinions in his first year of observing from the outside looking in, while still knowing quite a bit about the personnel. He’s still considered an adviser to the team, right?
Mike in VA
October 7th, 20114:22 pm
During the course of the season, there are various reports of players working in the cage on their swings with Chipper. It seems that most of the players respect his input on hitting. Is there any chance that Chipper could be named the new hitting coach.
October 7th, 20114:23 pm
DOB – During the course of the season, there are various reports of players working in the cage on their swings with Chipper. It seems that most of the players respect his input on hitting. Is there any chance that Chipper could be named the new hitting coach.
October 7th, 20114:24 pm
And if the brief is written by an unethical sort, what good will reading the brief again do?
Not a tiny little bit, LOL. I don’t think ever really reads this stuff, anyway. He kinda sees the words flow together into what he wants some dinosaur geezer to say, and then responds to that, not what the person actually wrote.
It’s just easier that way.
October 7th, 20114:25 pm
I see a few interesting candidates we can get from Royals
SS – Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar
OF – Alex Gordon
T for Texas
October 7th, 20114:26 pm
Answer these questions for me:
Bases loaded, nobody out.
How are the majority of pitchers in MLB going to pitch to the majority of hitters in MLB (types of pitches and location)?
What should the adjustment made by the hitter be given what the pitcher is doing?
What did Braves hitters do in this situation, most of the time this year?
October 7th, 20114:27 pm
Moustakas and Crow.
October 7th, 20114:28 pm
CHIPPER for player-hitting coach. it’s a ground-swell of support.
P-Town Brave ©
October 7th, 20114:30 pm
And I will keep saying….will never happen.
T for Texas, Here is the answer to your question if i am Fredi.,
“No matter what you do in that situation, make sure you tip your hat to the opposition pitcher or hitter “
What no tally from the previous blog. Did the stat program explode under the weight of over 12,000 hits?
October 7th, 20114:31 pm
Nor do I need a large number of trials to achieve that confidence
The post-season is the variable change for a guy such as Teixeira, in case anyone is wondering. Guy sucks when the rubber meets the road, and you don’t need a 1000 PAs to be confident in the assumption.
ncscoots, the above tells me you think sample size is irrelevant. Teixeira hasn’t had enough “trials” to tell us whether he sucks in the postseason.
Goes back to my post earlier. If Bautista doesn’t hit a homerun on Tuesdays, Tuesday is the variable change. Does that mean Bautista’s failures to hit homeruns on Tuesdays are a more reliable indicator of who he is on Tuesdays and more of an indication than his homer rate over a larger sample that just Tuesdays of what he’s likely to do on Tuesdays going forward?
Thanks fior the interviews,DOB.,
I know each team is different, and cant be compared, but I look at the Mets and what happened to them in 2007, and they havent been heard from since. I think that potentially, the Braves blowing such a big lead in a relatively short period of time, can have carryover effect.
The Braves might contend for a wild card next year, but they also might go 81-81/ Chipper is 40, Hudson is old, Lowe is old. This team is very long in the tooth. The way we might improve would be if Hanson and Jair rebound./
I’m not sure what to think of the 2012 Braves, but we will have a very long winter to think about it.
Even though we went down, we know that not even best record guarantees teams anything. Look what happened to the Yankees last night. It wouldnt surprise me to see the Phillies hopefully join them tonight. You might well see a wild card World Series champion again.
October 7th, 20114:35 pm
P-Town Brave, the only reason why it won’t happen will be because we don’t have the kahunas to do it.
October 7th, 20114:36 pm
Fredi is very eitquette driven.
If Bautista doesn’t hit a homerun on Tuesdays, Tuesday is the variable change.
Specious variable. Wrong premise. Unsupportable primary hypothesis.
Sorry, but I don’t think this is really an area of discussion for you, not without some further research to lay a foundation of knowing what you are discussing.
October 7th, 20114:37 pm
T for Texas, pitchers are going to try to throw strikes. Depends on the pitcher, what they’ll throw. Most will likely throw mostly fastballs, especially if they get behind in the count at all.
What should the hitter do? Early in the count, he should look for a pitch to drive. Later in the count, he should put a good swing on it and hope for decent contact that can go far enough to get a run home.
What did Braves hitters do? I’m sure they tried their best to do the above.
October 7th, 20114:39 pm
we had a good team, but not a so-so manager…fire Fredi…we want to win!
Thank you for proving my point.
Francouer in right and Escobar at short and we would still be playing.
Bay Area Steve
October 7th, 20114:41 pm
“Later in the count, he should put a good swing on it and hope for decent contact that can go far enough to get a run home.” – Shaun
Seriously? This is what we’re dealing with?
October 7th, 20114:44 pm
I’m sure they tried their best
“Your best?!? Losers cry about their ‘best’. Winners [go home with] the prom queen.”
October 7th, 20114:46 pm
Yeah, and more times than not, those are the guys in their 40’s that still have not moved on from high school and are living based on their glory days….
October 7th, 20114:47 pm
brave new world read that Royals are targeting Jurgens as their Starting Pitcher
i think you misunderstood that blog. did you read it? its a fan blog where they concluded they dont want jair jurrjens unless they can get him for nothing.
Great blog, DOB. Thanks for all you do to keep us updated on the Braves year-round.
October 7th, 20114:50 pm
its a fan blog where they concluded they dont want jair jurrjens unless they can get him for nothing.
Does that familiar, or is it just me?
They don’t want him because he’s not perfect and they are unable to see beyond any recent imperfections. Nothing new there.
October 7th, 20114:51 pm
ncscoots, so how do you explain that A-Rod performed well in the 1997, 2000, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009 postseasons and performed poorly in the 1995, 2006, 2010 and 2011 postseasons?
Did he just really practice his postseason performance skills and work on his mental toughness in some of those years but not others? Or is it more likely that over a small sample of games players have a tendency to sometimes perform way over their norms, way under their norms or right at their norms for reasons other than pressure, mental state, etc. and that is just the nature of baseball?
Simple question: If Brian McCann or Chipper Jones go 25-for-143 with 16 walks in 31 games, even if it’s against mediocre pitching, do we and should we assume that McCann and Chipper suck going forward and that there was something wrong with their mental toughness and ability to handle major league pressure over those 143 PA? Apparently most of you think we do and we should.
October 7th, 20114:56 pm
I don’t think we were discussing Rodriguez, Shaun. We were discussing Teixeira.
But talk among yourselves, if you wish. I’ve made my point, and discerning readers will either agree or disagree. You, however, do not have the knowledge to viably discuss my post on evaluating hypotheses by experiment. This makes you an ignorant geezer, so to speak.
October 7th, 20114:57 pm
BRAVES have more excuses for not winning than any team I can recall.
WTH is all the Chipper hate from P-Town about?
October 7th, 20114:58 pm
I think at this point it must be asked….
Do you enjoy talking out of your @ss and being the most hated person on the blog?
October 7th, 20114:59 pm
…i got a feelin’ that the phillies gonna win tonite!
Who said anything about hating Chipper?
October 7th, 20115:01 pm
ncscoots, Rodriguez and Teixeira, doesn’t matter. It’s stupid to draw conclusions about either and to assume what they will do going forward based on what they’ve done in the postseason, especially Teixeira, who has a relatively miniscule sample of games played in the postseason, barely a month’s worth.
thought I saw a coupla disparaging Chipper comments from you which surprised me unless I read them wrong
October 7th, 20115:02 pm
No one hates Shaun, you dimwit. Might get tired of the repetition, or think he’s obtuse, or whatever. So what? He isn’t the only guy here who talks out of his azz.
October 7th, 20115:03 pm
P-Town, perhaps others should worry about evidence and reason over being liked.
October 7th, 20115:07 pm
Nope, you’re right….not many can be as condescending as yourself…
October 7th, 20115:08 pm
Maybe next year the players should focus on playing baseball rather than seeing who could look the freakiest/stupidest with all of those shaved heads and bad haircuts. Grown men acting like children.
Today is my fav pitcher Kris Medlen’s birthday!
October 7th, 20115:09 pm
You mean like the evidence DOB provided but you failed to provide explanation for….other than the usual nonsense….
But hey….maybe its easier to be a cheerleader and a number cruncher than actually getting in the game and playing.
October 7th, 20115:10 pm
October 7th, 2011
Francouer in right and Escobar at short and we would still be playing.”
If the two above mentioned players had not performed so poorly as Braves, they more than likely would still be here. Please go back and research their numbers at the time they were traded.
Happy 16th Birthday, Kris! I hope you enjoy your drivers license.
October 7th, 20115:11 pm
I’ve got a feeling, that tonight’s not going to be a good night, tonights not going to be a good good night for the Phillies.
October 7th, 20115:17 pm
It’s painfully obvious Shaun’s never played organized baseball(outside of his claim to play in high school which sorry not buying). He’s the Professor, John Clayton and Tim Kurkjian wrapped in one. Kills me seeing people continue to argue with him.
October 7th, 20115:19 pm
Thanks Frank! Basically for 2012, more of the same. Your going to try harder. GET SOME F?????KN hitters!
October 7th, 20115:21 pm
Who gives a damn.
Just for the record I don’t hate Shaun.
But I am scrolling his comments, at least for now
He’s the Professor, John Clayton and Tim Kurkjian wrapped in one.
we should chip in and get him a bigger lunch pail for his birthday………
October 7th, 20115:22 pm
s’ok scoots, you is still my hero
“A side effect is mild hysteria. The medical reason is Mark Teixeira”
October 7th, 20115:25 pm
Do you see in any way the Yankees taking Lowe in their desperation for SP?
McFann O O o
October 7th, 20115:27 pm
Happy B-Day, Kris!!
Man, we even made a cake today…
October 7th, 20115:29 pm
Did someone say “cake”?
October 7th, 20115:31 pm
Braveone must have had his work cut out for him over all of the posts on the last blog… no numbers count yet.
October 7th, 20115:33 pm
I know Frank Wren won’t be fired, and thus I know the Braves won’t do better next year.
The bum gave us a whole bunch of inflated over the hill contracts…..and he will continue to do so in the future.
Welcome to mediocre baseball.
October 7th, 20115:34 pm
Cinnamon swirl cake…it smells Heavenly while cooking and tastes even better…
October 7th, 20115:35 pm
McFann, save me some… I’m a sucker for some cake!!
October 7th, 20115:36 pm
You got it!
October 7th, 20115:37 pm
So NOT cool!
You cant talk about stuff like that on here….
October 7th, 20115:38 pm
I’m gonna throw up some FB pics when I mount all my Braves memorabilia and finally get it all done…
So look for that soon.
October 7th, 20115:41 pm
P-T, I’ll keep an eye open… talk you guys next week.. I’m heading out for the weekend.. later.
Sorry…I’ll try to control myself better…
October 7th, 20115:42 pm
Bye, AT! Have a good weekend!
October 7th, 20115:44 pm
Sounds good…have a good one!
I think I’ll be headed out too friends….pray for me that the Phils win one more game so all the harrassment stops from the Cardinal fans…
October 7th, 20115:45 pm
I know we all cant stand the Phils….
But I can’t stand the Cards fans even more….and there are more of them!
October 7th, 20115:46 pm
See ya, P-Town!
October 7th, 20115:52 pm
Glad I read page 6. Good to see you back, Tomahawkin.
October 7th, 20115:54 pm
Would be funny if the Yanks released Texieria. Gonna stand by your word and retire?
seemed to me to be more Phils trolls than Card trolls all season
October 7th, 20115:56 pm
@scoots-He isn’t the only guy here who talks out of his azz.
You talking about me again??
Happy Anniversary of your birth, My Little Pony!
October 7th, 20115:57 pm
Did I hear you say that you are back on the IV juice? If so, hope things are getting better for ya.
I musta missed something how could the Yanks release Tex with 5 years and 110+ mil still owed?
October 7th, 20116:02 pm
It would be kind of funny if they moved texieria to another team and he came back to beat them in the post season
October 7th, 20116:06 pm
I had forgotten that Ian Kennedy went to USC…
A full season of people doing things at the plate for contact and situational hitting rather than swinging for the fences two or three times per at-bat, along with a little less of the injury bug and we ought to be in good shape. Sure would be nice to have a man with proven intelligence calling the shots inthe dugout. Reactionary Wren will handle that later, I suppose.
October 7th, 20116:07 pm
Unfortunately yes Wayne, I am back on the IV juice daily. always takes a long time.
October 7th, 20116:08 pm
Bat, did I see that you started Neon Rain? If so how do you like it?
A little less mainstream than many IMO
October 7th, 20116:13 pm
October 7th, 20116:21 pm
I did, but I’m only have way throuigh as I have not had much time for reading. Getting rerady to sit down with it now. Yeah, I’m liking so far
There is a great passage at the beginning when he goes to see the dead prostitutes parents. The fathers dialogue is remarkable. I mean I flat out loved it
I still got the blues. I can’t get excited thinking about the future. The recent past was too painful. They let us down, they choked—the manager and players all choked. What can else can one conclude? Irene? Give me a break.
My spirits will be lifted somewhat if the Cards beat the Phillies tonight. Wouldn’t that be a hoot?
October 7th, 20116:22 pm
Guess DOB and I are quarter brothers now as I have adopted the Hag as my Grandpa many years ago . . . never met either of my Grandfathers and my dad died when I was in high school. Saw Merle in Lakeland last spring- awesome show! BTW, there was an indirect reference to the Shield in my first sentence! Thanks for the great work all season long!
October 7th, 20116:25 pm
Yeah his strong point is character, dialog and atmosphere more so than strict plot. Glad you are happy with it so far.
Coupla movies made so far. First one starred Alec Baldwin in kinduva a combo of the first two books. The other one has Tommy Lee Jones. Neither were as good as the books by any means, but Tommy Lee did have a bit of a feel for the character IMO
October 7th, 20116:28 pm
[sniff, sniff] Here’s your request, Derek. I hope you have a better year in 2012.
Wynn Stewart – “Take Me As I Am (Or Let Me Go)”
October 7th, 20116:32 pm
Yeah, skeezix, hear ya. The Cardinals got everything it takes to pull it off. Sure would be nice.
THE BRAVES SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSUCK!!!!!!! WREN & LEO & BOBBY ARE FULL OF…!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!….that idiot FG.. “IT IS WHAT IT Is?????..SPEAKS VOLUMES ABOUT HIS ANALYTICAL MEDIOCRITY…let him ,manage the MISSIPPI braves or just fire that moron and let him sell used cars!!!!!…it is what it is…yeah that is SSSSSSSSSUCKS!!!!!
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