3:57 pm September 27, 2011, by David O'Brien
September 27th, 20115:36 pm
I don’t think what DRoss said was wrong at all. I’m sure there’s an increased level of excitement in the clubhouse today. That’s not to say that they weren’t excited before, but despite their lousy play the last month they still have a very good chance at winning this thing. And possibly, with a little help (and a whole lotta luck), tonight!
September 27th, 20115:37 pm
P-Town BravEEE ©
Also, I have a hard time figuring out how 1 guy out of 25 stays to watch the team who is trying to catch you and what they do….
Real team cohesiveness there….
Guys, pull your heads out of your @sses tonight and take your hands off your throats!
For my rant, that is all.
September 27th, 20115:39 pm
Not gonna matter what the lineup is tonight because Lowe is gonna do us a solid and kick the Phillies azz. And the offense WILL get er done tonight.
It seems as though the more I read here and the more I listen to on the radio….
The more I realize just how stupid our manager is, how inept some of the supposed “talent” is, and how angry I am that this team has rolled over and tried to lay down for whoever wanted the Wild Card.
September 27th, 20115:40 pm
Chop Chop –
Thanks…..needed that a couple of hrs. before The Biggest Game Of The Year!
Chipper Jones, at his age, should not have had the best offensive season of any regular. No offense to Chipper. Love the guy, but that’s more of a bad thing for our other regs.
Infante resigned with the Fish. Maybe we can trade for him and have the Fish to pay for his salary or we just wait until Hanley Ramirez is run out town by Guillen and swoop him .
DOB, Regardless of baseball outcomes, the big event here this weekend is the “Hardly Strictly Bluegrass Festival” at Golden Gate Park Friday-Sunday, with acts like Ralph Stanley, Jason Isbell, Emmy Lou Harris, Ryan Bingham, John Prine, Dr. John and dozens of others. Three days, four stages, and lots of good music and food. Although it will be cold. If you’ve never been to it, it’s worth a trip to the bay area. It would be great to be at the festival AND listening to Braves playoff updates.
Lil' Barry Bailout
Statistically speaking, the Braves recent inability to hit with RISP is not just mere randomness. It’s gone on long enough and consistently enough to be scientifically labeled as “choking”.
I hope Lowe will be better, but I also hope Fredo grows the cajones enough to have Teheran ready if Lowe sputters early….
Can not afford to leave him out there to take one on the chin tonight!
Steve from OH
September 27th, 20115:42 pm
Oh God. Ozzie and Hanely together and touring in South Beach.
Should be entertaining!
September 27th, 20115:43 pm
Lowe is gonna do us a solid
Yeah, that happens all the time. Or was that sarcasm?
September 27th, 20115:44 pm
SPTimesRays Marc Topkin
#Rays Kotchman taken out on stretcher, had tightness in chest, going to hospital for precautionary tests
Scary…hope he’s ok…
I’d argue that Freeman is having the best season of any regular position player, but I get what you’re saying.
Brave4life-1995 all over again???
September 27th, 20115:45 pm
Lets take care of “business” as many Braves players would say.
sadly at the end of the day, they are getting there paychecks from our pockets.
Just a hunch but the braves bats come alive tonight, Lowe pitches the game of his life and the Astros blow out the cards
McCann is having a pretty solid season, if you ignore his horrendous defense and inability to hit in the last month.
September 27th, 20115:47 pm
I wonder what the “vibe” in the clubhouse was knowing they could have clinched a while ago if they had only been able to play somewhere around .500 ball.
DOB ,,Sept. 7th game for Lowe was at CBP, not Turner. — AB*Nation
I’m not sure what you’re referring to. Something I wrote?
McCann’s D ain’t all that bad. His pitchers just tend to be horrendously slow to the plate.
September 27th, 20115:48 pm
Lil’ Barry Bailout, it hasn’t really gone on long enough to be considered more than randomness.
What did they do, forget how to be clutch after the first quarter of the season? I think it’s mostly randomness, and the rest is overall offensive ineptitude.
Seabass .455 .455 .879 1.333 .556 __315
Heyward .321 .444 .500 0.944 .393 __201
After reading this stat…last 9 games of the starting 9,I am gonna go out on a limb and say J-Hey and Gonzo both have big games tonight and the Braves win 5-3 Lowe will go 6 innings but only give up 2 runs.
Is every Braves pitcher slow to the plate? I can’t remember the last time Brian threw anyone out at second.
And he seems to have a problem catching throws from the outfield. The sweep tags are much more effective with the ball in the glove.
September 27th, 20115:49 pm
Word is, some Red Sox higher ups think Francona hasn’t been aggressive enough with players. Leniency worked in the past, but doesn’t with these guys.
WOW….if that doesn’t sound familiar….
September 27th, 20115:52 pm
You know whats sad…..
Neither of those two guys were in quite a few of these games this month when we needed them
Charlie opened the door wide last night for the Braves when he took Lee out after 6 innings. The Braves didn’t walk through. Tonight, he will probably open it again. Can the Braves step through?
Chances not great with Lowe, DOB….would rather have a rookie going tonight. — Braves sputter
Which rookie? Beachy, Delgado and Minor pitched the last three games. Teheran? What has Teheran done to give you confidence that he’s the guy to turn to in this pressurized situation over Lowe? I’m really surprised by the number of folks who act as though Teheran has excelled in his major league starts. I think Teheran is going to be really good in the future. But I also am realistic and have seen his four starts this season. They have not been anywhere near as impressive as Delgado’s, Beachy’s, or Minor’s past nine or 10.
Teheran has a 5.40 ERA and .288 opp. average in four games (three starts), with eight walks and seven strikeouts in 16-2/3 innings. In his three starts he’s worked 4-2/3 innings, 4 innings, and 5-1/3 innings.
September 27th, 20115:53 pm
BTW….can I just say I’m already sick of this Nikki Williams on 680…
Being that optimistic makes me feel that much worse about all of this!
DOB, what’s the story on Arodys? Hasn’t pitched in 10 days…he’s not hurt, is he?
September 27th, 20115:54 pm
Teheran does need to be ready in case Lowe lays an egg like we know he can….
Fredo must have the stones to pull Lowe early if he doesn’t have it….can not afford to leave him out there to implode.
They’re hitting .181 for nearly a full month–that ain’t randomness. Yes, they HAVE forgotten how to hit with RISP, because they’re so frightened of failing that they tighten up and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Here ends my psychological diagnosis from afar.
The Braves have no balls.
September 27th, 20115:56 pm
A look At Lowe – Unlucky or Awful?
AUTHOR: Fred Owens | IN: Braves | COMMENTS: None Yet
Every time Derek Lowe is scheduled to pitch, while the game is in progress and after on the blogs and twitter there are some extremely unkind, inaccurate and unjustified statements made about him. In an effort – inevitably unsuccessful – the inform and ad perspective, here are just a few words about Derek Lowe’s “bad” year.
We all know Derek Lowe hasn’t been as sharp this year don’t we? I mean look at his won/loss record he’s awful, right? Then he had that unfortunate traffic stop where the did all those awful things. The charges for those awful things were dismissed and in this country I thought innocence was true until proven false. Maybe not.In any event, Lowe is not an easy guy to like.
I get it. He’s losing games for the Braves and the heaven knows the Braves deserve better. I wrote back before the injuries to Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens that he should move to the bullpen until he fixed whatever was wrong. If those two were healthy I’m sure he’d be there now.But, they aren’t healthy, the Braves have a shortage of starters and he is going to start a critical game tonight. Besides, the numbers don’t say what you think they do. So let’s take personalities out of this and look at how he has actually pitched.
I guess if asked most of you would say something like awful, terrible or horrible. Many fans berate his performance while ignoring similar performances by others. Keep in mind (please) that I come to profile Lowe’s starts, not to praise him. I’m just going to show the numbers for each starter and let you take a look.
For Lowe I’ve shown the 13 games before and his 13 starts since the AS Game.
For Beachy, Hudson and Minor I’m using starts since the All Star game.
For JJ and Hanson I used their last 13 starts before the All star break.
Pre AS Lowe
Post AS Beachy
Post AS Hudson
Post AS Minor
Post AS Jurrjens
Pre AS Hanson
GS 13 13 13 14 9 13 13
Rec 3-4 4-9 4-2 8-4 6-3 10-3 11-2
ERA 4.60 5.91 4.12 2.83 3.83 2.03 .208
BAbip 2.90 .368 .328 .289 .350 .259 .218
HR 5 6 7 6 7 4 7
G (W-L) G (W-L) G (W-L) G (W-L) G (W-L) G (W-L) G (W-L)
RS=5 7 (7-0) 2 (2-0) 7 (4-3) 6 (6-0) 6 (5-1) 5 (5-0) 4 (4-0)
IP < 5 2 2 2 0 1 0 1
IP 5+ 4 4 4 1 6 2 1
IP 6+ 7 6 6 4 2 6 5
IP 7+ 1 1 1 9 0 5 6
RS – Braves Runs
Here’s some of what I see, in the table.
1.) Run Production is down the second half
No matter who starts:
When we score 4 or more runs we win about 88% of the time.
When we score exactly 3 runs we lose about 70% of the time
When we score less than 2 runs we lose about 75% of the time
2.) Beachy and Lowe go 5 innings or less about the same number of times.
3.) Since the ASG Lowe and Hudson received get less run support than other starters
4.) Lowe’s BAbip rose 78 points the second half . As a reference Hudson’s is up 32 points and Beachy up 33.
BAbip indicates that hitters are putting the ball in play more often against everyone. This makes sense as pitchers get tired through the year.
Lowe is suffering more than Hudson even though both are ground ball pitchers. Lowe is missing with more hittable pitches than Hudson (the sinker is up and the slider isn’t sharp) so more balls in play turn into hits instead of double plays.
5.) Even though Beachy’s record is 4-2 that doesn’t indicate Beachy’s starts are more successful. The Braves are 5-8 when Beachy starts and 4-9 when Lowe starts.
Not shown are the innings when the pitchers allow the most runs. Lowe allows runs in about even numbers in innings 1-6 averages about 1/2 run an inning over his 33 starts. He hasn’t shown any particular inning or innings that are harder for him than the rest.
Like most strike out fly ball pitchers Beachy is vulnerable in the 1st inning before he settles in. He also tends to give up a lot of runs in the 4th inning about the time he’s going through the lineup the second time.
It’s pretty clear the Braves scored a lot more runs for Beachy than they have for Lowe in the second half. Nine times the Braves have scored three or less runs for Lowe , four times for Beachy. Seven times the Braves scored five or more for Beachy but only twice for Lowe. Given equivalent run support Lowe’s record would likely improve.
I doubt this will change anyone’s mind about Derek Lowe. I too would like to have Jurrjens and Hanson back so this wouldn’t be an issue; but we don’t. For myself, I try to understand that Lowe would not pitch as he has if he knew how to go back to his form of last September. He’s not trying to give up hits and runs and feels as badly or worse about it than you and I. After all he’s the aging vet who may not get this close to the prize again; and they all want that prize.
As always comments are invited.
Mac’s not slow to the (dinner) plate!
Coach (2011 Fredi G. a Go!)
September 27th, 20115:57 pm
I have already stopped thinking in terms of the wild card. I’m thinking done in 162 or 165 because it really won’t matter at all in the larger scope of things. These guys are toast and they know it.
How many solo hr’s have the braves hit this year? Has to be near the top
September 27th, 20115:58 pm
I’d rather have albie lopez start than derek lowe
This breaking news just in! Venters was rushed to the hospital this morning and is undergoing emergency surgery to have his left arm reattached.
Fredi announced that, if released from the hospital in time for tonight’s game, he planned to use Venters in the 8th inning.
Fire Fredi !!!
Hire DOB !!!
Thanks DOB,You and Carroll have done an excellent job all season!!!!
September 27th, 20115:59 pm
The Braves front office did the same thing this year they did last year–sold the fans a bill of goods oriented around their starting pitching being world-class. It wasn’t true last year, and it hasn’t been true this year. Any Braves starters in the running for Cy Young? Sure, the starting pitching was the “strength” of the team, but only because their offense was so horrendous.
P-town did you have a lot of coffee today? Or do you just need a big dollop of antacid?
DOB, cant you become the Braves manager? Would you take it if offered to you ?
September 27th, 20116:00 pm
September 27th, 20116:01 pm
DOB, if the season ends tomorrow night… what do you do? Vacation? Start covering the offseason right away?
I don’t know why as the odds are against it, but I think we clinch tonight.
So…all we have to do is score 4 tonight then?
Sounds easy enough
Lets go Braves & Stros tonight!!!!!!!
If there is a wild-card tiebreaker game between Braves and Cardinals it’ll start at 8:07 p.m. EST Thursday at St. Louis (7:07 Central Time)
September 27th, 20116:02 pm
“Braves reduced magic number from 6 to 2 while winning 1 game” HAHA Only the braves
Is Kimbrel still in the running for Rookie of the Year?
September 27th, 20116:03 pm
If Lowe loses tonight he would have lost 17 games. How many teams have made the playoffs with a 17 game loser?
September 27th, 20116:05 pm
Teheran has shown flashes and he definitely has the potential to be an ace, but Teheran has also shown that he needs better command of his fastball, better command of his changeup, and a better breaking ball period.
Teheran could use one more year of AAA with the occasional spot start in the majors. Delgado and Minor have shown they should be in the majors. vizcaino should join Teheran at AAA to continue to work on being a starter
Lowe and Loss start with a …
September 27th, 20116:07 pm
if the Braves can make the playoffs, all bets are off and it will be a new season.
hopefully the braves can shake the rust and mold off their bats from the season of non-use
I wonder how much better this team would be and have done if they took DOB’s advice (sincerely) and hired Kirk Gibson and his crew.
One thing’s for sure, they wouldn’t have blown a 10 1/2 game lead
There are so many good ones on this blog, like Shaun for starters. I’d think he’d defer to them. Robert would’ve won us a few championships by himself.
McFann :Ô: :Ô: :ô:
Yikes! Hope Casey Kotchman is OK! That’s scary…
D Lowe’s three seasons with Braves
09- 232 hits
September 27th, 20116:08 pm
DOB as Mgr??????
September 27th, 20116:09 pm
Derek Lowe’s last ten starts:
3-7 with an ERA of 5.87, team record of 3-7. Seven could be his lucky number tonight. Will he go seven or give up seven runs…….stay tuned.
Nova Scotia Steve - Braves Fan Until The End
DOB where would the tiebreaker be held – should we need to play one?????
I’m kidding man, totally kidding.
I think all three should start in AAA. Teheran and Delgado need to work on the breaking ball and just keep adding those “finishing touches” to be able to really work a hitter and put a hitter away. Vizcaino needs to work on the change and get stretched as a starter.
Minor is just kind of a placeholder back-of-the-rotation guy for me until those three can step in and do work. Not a bad guy to have in that slot, though. Good, young, and cheap. But not with the upside of those guys…
If we miss the WC…….it’ll tie the 64 Phils as the biggest collapse EVER!
September 27th, 20116:10 pm
DOB for Braves Manager !!!
The real question is what will the temperature be at game time? The cooler the better for D.Lowe…
For some reason folks, I have faith in Derek Lowe.
He will come through for us tonight.
Interested in seeing how the D-back players respond to Gibson’s style of management the next couple of seasons. Manager of the Year this season, will he be a good with staying power or go the ranks of Garner, Yost etc.
“Let’s say the Braves only play .500 ball the rest of the way…”
Hmm, what if they go 7-14?
September 27th, 20116:11 pm
Ol’ Pedro Gomez says it’s basically “bone on bone” in Chipper’s right knee.
September 27th, 20116:12 pm
“Bone on bone?”
Sounds like a certain blog collective to me.
The Abs Man
September 27th, 20116:14 pm
Why does Fredi insist on batting Prado second?
Clear as day, that’s not working.
“Let’s say the Braves only play .500 ball the rest of the way
1-1 gets them to a tiebreaker game possibly.
September 27th, 20116:16 pm
I suppose you could say FG has done one heck of a job, getting one of the worst hitting teams in the NL with 2 missing starting pitchers to the brink of a WC spot. Way to go FG! Don’t fire FG, give that man a raise! Keep’n it in perspective.
September 27th, 20116:17 pm
If the pork ribs I just cooked up (botched) are any indication of our chances tonight then we are in trouble… even my border collie won’t eat ‘em
September 27th, 20116:19 pm
Ephrim, can you give us one of your scenarios where if we go 1-1 the Cards still have to win out to force a 1 game playoff. Oh, wait, I think I got this one.
September 27th, 20116:20 pm
Parrish will be fired at end of year!!
NO reason to bring him back!
September 27th, 20116:21 pm
me cooking venison
I want the Astros to get a good 6-0 lead after the first inning. That would be roughly halfway through our game and will raise our spirits.
September 27th, 20116:23 pm
It’s not inconceivable that Lowe does come through in a big way tonight. It’s not inconceivable that the Braves score two or three runs. What are the odds of BOTH happening on the same night?
Lew, if you don’t like bloggers ranting then just ignore them. It ain’t hard. You will not convince these people you’re right and they are “and idiots” no matter how many times you try. And you try … A LOT. Like from the butt crack of dawn until late afternoon. Obviously isn’t working.
What do some of you expect – movie and music talk to fill the blog when the team we’ve obsessed over the past 6 or so months could easily be nearing what they call an epic collapse? Get real.
Jason from Taiwan
September 27th, 20116:24 pm
I’ll take Lowe for 30 outs… he’s gonna do a Jack Morris.. we win 1-0 in the bottom of the 10th
September 27th, 20116:25 pm
I hope Kotchman is okay, you don’t want that to happen to anyone.
Brave New World
DOB, How can we not blame Fredi Gonzalez ? He should get the WORST MANAGER AWARD
He literally killed the Braves bullpen..,
Didn’t let his starters go deep
Didn’t play small ball well…,
We are dead last in steals and running game
The team has an average of one sacrifice fly out per month
The pitchers don’t know how to bunt or move the runners over
Even when the team started playing lousy baseball in September he acted as if nothing was wrong and will be wrong ever…,
September 27th, 20116:26 pm
Abs Man, Fredi is the real “and idiot” here batting Prado at all imo. And I think Mac’s oblique has caused his swing to go in slow motion. That’s not to say I’d bench him over Ross. Ross cant hit either at this point. A disease has infested our bats and it must’ve gotten a hold of their wood. No jokes, ya know what I mean …
Chip Carey's long lost cousin
September 27th, 20116:29 pm
Oh God. Ozzie and Hanely together and touring in South Beach.
An attendance draw w/their new stadium…I like it…it his don’t work for them nothing will and I really don’t want S. Florida to lose that to to another city for what its worth
September 27th, 20116:30 pm
any POSSIBLE way we can make a fast deal & get Kawakami to pitch tomorrow???
Have a good night y’all
Go Lowe and Braves
September 27th, 20116:31 pm
agreed Steve from OH – that would be ideal.
Minor should be our 5th starter next year. Whether Delgado starts in the rotation or not depends on what happens with Lowe, Hanson, and Jurrjens with trades or injuries. Of course they could also try to get Vazquez to come back for a 1 year encore performance
September 27th, 20116:32 pm
He literally killed the Braves bullpen..
He DID?? All of them? Damn…who’s gonna close for us now?
September 27th, 20116:33 pm
Sheryl will do the closing.
September 27th, 20116:34 pm
But if Fredi killed the pen, wouldn’t he have killed Sherrill too? Or was he spared because he was on the DL?
Time is going by so slowly right now. Wish game time would hurry up and get here.
September 27th, 20116:37 pm
Sheryl was spared yes because of the trip to the DL;
He is the lone survivor and will be pitching 5 innings tonight.
GM For The Day...
1. Bourn CF
2. Constanza RF
3. Freeman 1B
4. Uggla 2B
5. Chipper 3B
6. Prado LF
7. McCann C
8. Gonzalez SS
I like this line-up posted by someone earlier. Except, suggest flipping Prado and Chipper and have Chipper on the bench until a key moment later in the game, insert Heyward in the line-up. Bunt, bunt, and then hopefully a hit. They cannot score runs. Think outside of the box. Or get swept and maybe there is a one-game playoff on Thursday. Seriously, this sucks.
stizz (Braves & Falcons fan til death)
September 27th, 20116:38 pm
Anybody else plan on catching the documentary on the Steve Bartman debacle on ESPN? My previous channel button will be getting a work out tonight.
September 27th, 20116:39 pm
The line up should only have Prado in it if Chipper can’t go. Replace Prado in left with Constanza.
Prado has been a no show for a while. Hope I am wrong and Prado goes 4 for 4.
“Teheran has a 5.40 ERA and .288 opp. average in four games (three starts), with eight walks and seven strikeouts in 16-2/3 innings. In his three starts he’s worked 4-2/3 innings, 4 innings, and 5-1/3 innings.” DOB
Don’t bother pointing out that 4 of his ER were in 2.2 IP of relief in that 12-2 loss to the Mets.
In his starts, his ERA is 3.68. Sure his innings don’t rack up. In his 3 starts, he’s pitched 14.2 innings.
In Lowe’s last 3 starts, he’s totaled 14.1 IP while giving up 13 ER (10.64 ERA).
I’m not saying it’s a guarantee that Teheran would pitch better than Lowe. No guarantee that Lowe doesn’t step up and pitch his best game of the year. Hard to say at this point.
But you stated:
“What has Teheran done to give you confidence that he’s the guy to turn to in this pressurized situation over Lowe? I’m really surprised by the number of folks who act as though Teheran has excelled in his major league starts.”
If Carroll has filled in for you on all of the games Lowe has pitched, I apologize. Perhaps that’s the case. But my only response to that statement is to ask you…..
You’ve seen Lowe pitch recently, haven’t you?
Like I said. No way to predict how this is going to end up. But please stop acting like we’re suggesting or debating whether Teheran should start over John Smoltz in his prime. We’re talking about a guy with a 4.92 ERA over 33 starts this year.
September 27th, 20116:40 pm
Send lawyers, guns and money
Fredi, get me out of this….
We talk baseball, other sports, music, movies, BBQ and whatever (except politics or religion)
Atlanta Braves RSS feed
Previous entries »
Send a feedback technical issue
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution