3:45 pm August 31, 2011, by David O'Brien
September 1st, 20119:44 am
JeffR- It won’t be both Lowe and Jurrjens – just one of them. Lowe would bring nothing in return but salary relief and Jurrjens would bring less salary relief (unless they ate huge amounts of Lowe’s salary – which I don’t see happening) and a bigger return.
Hugo Z Hackenbush
September 1st, 20119:45 am
DS1, there’s a book by Felder called “Heaven and Hell,” which, among other things, explains how he and the group parted ways. It can be found at the library.
September 1st, 20119:46 am
I’d like to think Jurrjens would bring what Matt Garza got the Rays, but that’s probably wishful thinking.
September 1st, 20119:48 am
For our California regulars…………..20 aftershocks and counting.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
raleighbravesfan I’m not too worried about Mac
I’m not losing sleep over it, but I am slightly concerned about what the problem is…
September 1st, 20119:49 am
Lew, yes, no real salary relief with Jurrjens. But after reading that Jurrjens’ conditioning has slipped, wondering if the Braves are as happy with him? Yes, Jurrjens’s knees have bothered him, but wondering if there’s more there about Jurrjens’ disipline?
September 1st, 20119:50 am
So JURRGENS is on the block folks? I didn’t know that!
Where, and for whom prey tell.
Shaun – We had this discussion yeasterday, and you never really clarified. I also don’t believe you ever said that JJ was an “acceptable #3, whatever that means.
My point is that if he is a number 4, there must be 90 pitchers better than him. If you are assigning certain qualities to pitching rankings, then please define what a #3 or #4 guy is. There has never been a time in baseball when there were 90 pitchers better than JJ. Any other type of ranking seems arbitrary and subjective…which is out of character for you, since you always exactly quantify everything else, at least in your own mind.
September 1st, 20119:55 am
How is Jair Jurrjens a #4 starter? He certainly isn’t a #1, but let’s give him a little more credit than that.
McFann – I chalk most of it up to wear-and-tear, and fatigue. Catching’s tough, and it’s been a long, hot Summer. He may rejuvinate some with cooler weather, and may get more rest during the stretch, as well.
September 1st, 20119:56 am
Ricky Nolasco has one of the better xFIP in the National League the last few years. I don’t think any talent evaluator or GM would consider him a #1 starter or anything close to it. Just my two cents.
September 1st, 20119:57 am
Especially considering he’s nothing more than a back end starter.
Trade-wise, a lot depends on JJ’s health and performance going forward. That will affect his value, both on the market, and to the Braves.
September 1st, 20119:58 am
First half JJ would be worth a lot.
September 1st, 201110:00 am
In terms of WAR (pick whatever measure you want) Jurrjens is 70th in the starting pitcher list, meaning he’d be a #3 if the pitchers were evenly distributed. He probably becomes an actual #2 for many teams, since lots of teams have multiple pitchers from the list above Jurrjens on their staff. He’d be #5 on the Giants, for example, #1 for Houston.
September 1st, 201110:01 am
I would trade Hansen over Jurjjens.
Any chance the “Vanimal” (Vance Worley, 9-1, 2.65 ERA pitching for the Phils) beats out Kimbrel or Freeman for ROY?
September 1st, 201110:03 am
Fish – Now you’ve done it. Prepare for all hell to bust loose.
September 1st, 201110:04 am
How does Shaun account for teams like the Phillies and Giants who probably have 5 or 6 #1’s pitching between them? Where does that place other MLB pitchers? does that mean that some teams number 1’s are really number 3’s? Hudson is considered a Number 1. If the Braves get Cole Hamels through Free Agency does that make Hudson a number 2, or is he still a number 1? I don’t get it.
Gary – Only if Kimbrel and Freeman “split the vote”. I think FF and Kimbrel will finish 1&2, with Kimbrell winning.
September 1st, 201110:05 am
Jurrjens, like Lowe, still has September to improve their numbers. You know, I’d wager Lowe might finish .500 with an ERA in the low fours. A close to typical Lowe season.
September 1st, 201110:06 am
Who truly gives a flying _____ whether Cain or Lowe or Jurrjens or ______ (fill in the blanks) is a 2 or 3 or a 1 or a 2.475 or whatever????
Some of you folks get way to bent out of shape about stuff that doesn’t mean a hill of beans to me.
What matters is getting the W today. Getting the W tomorrow. The day after……. as many times as possible during the season, then in the post season. Calling one guy a 1 or a 2 or a 3 means nothing. Having them ALL perform as a 1, or as close to a 1 every time they are on the mound is everything.
OK, can we move on??
Quick simple definition.
Regression towards the mean (at least the way we use it on the blog) is this: Infante moved back towards his career norms this year, versus playing over his head for a couple of years here. Uggla moving UP towards his career norms after starting off the season horribly.
Would not surprise me that if healthy, McLouth moved back UP towards his numbers in Pittsburg in the next year or so.
Can we move on?
Put jack wilson on the roster and dump lugo and put matt diaz to help out with left handers. Not big moves but the Braves just got a little better. Wren gets it done. He might not be splashy/flashy but he knows where the Braves need help and he improves without giving up the future. Nice win last night. Go braves!
Worley won’t have enough starts to merit serious consideration.
September 1st, 201110:07 am
Gary O. – No Chance. Great year but numbers aren’t close to Kimbrel and I think it goes to Freeman anyway because full time position players seem to get the writers votes.
Yes, Kimbrel followed by Freeman in the R.O.Y. voting.
September 1st, 201110:08 am
We all now Hanson is weaksauce bro.
Gary O, Vance Worley has been really good for the Phils but I would be shocked if he finished even #2. Unless Kimbrel and Freeman tank the last month I think 1/2 in ROY is a lock
JRW – He thinks that #1s have certain qualities that place them in that category. One team can have more than 1 #1, and some have none. There can be more or less than 30 #1s. I completely understand that concept, although the definition of a #1 is totally subjective. What I don’t understand is what the definition of a #4 is, and what makes JJ fit that definition. It’s totally bogus, in my opinion.
September 1st, 201110:09 am
You know, I’ve been coming around here a long time, and I don’t recall a thread more boring than Jurrjens’ virtual rotation slot, LOL. And once you get past “Jurrjens has outperformed his peripherals”, there ain’t a whole lot of fun in that one, either. Moving along…
If the Braves decide to keep a journeyman SS in place next year, I’m not against the idea of Wilson over Gonzalez.
I like Jack Wilson as a backup middle infielder. I would have rather had Renteria for his clutch bat, but Wilson will have to do, I guess.
shaun But at least one person thinks Axford is superior in his “mentality” and “approach” to pitchers like Venters, Robertson and Marshall because he’s a closer with 40 saves
really? who? i missed that. you are the only person ive seen bring that up.
Apparently if you think someone like Venters or Robertston or Marshall would be more dominant as closers than John Axford has been as a closer, then you don’t understand the game, you’ve never played it and you don’t understand anything besides stats
youre making that up. you confirmation bias in on full blast, so you are ascribing positions to people who have never expressed such a thing.
September 1st, 201110:11 am
You think Smoltz would’ve went on the DL for normal wear and tear on his shoulder? lol
Kimbrel is setting a saves record for rookies with each save he notches thru the rest of the season. That’s going to receive sports writers’ attention.
DS1 – Feel better now?
Jeff R- No real salary relief? Seriously, are we that jaded that we think $7 mil (what he’ll make in arbitration) is nothing?
And as to the conditioning comment – sounded like idle speculation to me rather than an outright declaration. They’ll consider trading him because he’s making some serious bucks and will just keep costing more and they won’t re-sign him to a contract buying out any Free Agent year since they have so much cheap, young pitching in the pipeline.
September 1st, 201110:13 am
To be honest, I have not kept up with Wilson since he left the Pirates and lost his starting job in Seattle. Does he still have the range to play the position? The stamina to play 150 games per year?
We know Gonzo does, but do we know whether Wilson does or doesn’t? I’d need to know that before I would agree with you.
You think Smoltz would’ve went on the DL for normal wear and tear on his shoulder?
He did, about six times, LOL.
September 1st, 201110:14 am
DAP, Shaun would never set up a straw man, would he?
September 1st, 201110:15 am
Much better. Was I alone in my thoughts on those 2 subjects???
September 1st, 201110:16 am
Scoots, smoltz’s shoulder was barely hanging his arm on and he was still pitching for us.
JeffR- Only if it advanced the case of his ad hominem.
Wilson’s bat is lighter than Alex’s. He ain’t starting for the Braves in’12. He’s probably not a Brave next year, anyway.
September 1st, 201110:17 am
raleighbravefan, if a team has something close to a true #1 and a true #2; I think Jurrjens, in a typical season, is going to be a decent #3 or a solid #4. That’s what I mean. Obviously Jurrjens could be a a #2 or even a #1 on some teams. But I think in an ideal situation, Jurrjens is a #3 or a #4.
I look at “ace” or “#1″ as possessing certain characteristics, #2’s as possessing certain characteristics, and so on. In an ideal situation, would a guy be an ace, a #2, a #3, etc. I’m not counting down to determine which pitchers are the top 30, and determining that those are the aces, and so on, down the rotation spots.
I realize this is all subjective. Basically the whole point is to try to get an idea of a guy’s value and putting a label on it. This is one way to do it.
September 1st, 201110:18 am
Good for Lowe last night. He actually missed some bats. Pitched inside on the RHB and his slider looked good. Bodes well for the future. Maybe baby steps now till October. McCann found his swing then lost it again in the 4 day lay-off. Not exactly FG’s best move. Pretty sure he’ll find it again soon.
Fish – While I agree about Smoltz (and he was unique old-school type), things have changed. Teams have so much $$$ invested in these guys, they guard them carefully, being overly causious.
Also, his results lately were not acceptable, and needed to be addressed. Blame $$$ and Tony LaRussa for the current state of how pitchers are handled.
September 1st, 201110:21 am
monty – You really think it was that fourth day that did Mac in? Dude, he would have been off for three anyway and it’s pretty apparent from the way he’s not following through on his throws (it’s why they’re sailing on him) that the oblique is still bothering him.
He really needed that extra day of rest and in the long run it will be beneficial.
September 1st, 201110:23 am
“If the Braves decide to keep a journeyman SS in place next year, I’m not against the idea of Wilson over Gonzalez.” – ncscoots
I was considering it when I read about the transaction this morning. However, I just looked up his stats and Gonzalez is actually a better offensive player, which to me at least is amazing. I know Wilson was bad with the bat, but I had no idea there was another career OBP barely above .300 guy (.308) that was an everyday player throughout his career. I knew Wilson was bad at the plate, but at least, Gonzalez walks into one every blue moon. Really, hope that Pastronicky kid is the real deal.
I’d need to know that before I would agree with you.
The dude was the absolute best defensive SS in the bigs just a couple of years ago, no question. I don’t really keep up with the AL, so I don’t know about his injuries the last couple years. But, if he’s healthy, there would certainly be no dropoff with the glove.
Not exactly a stick you can fall in love with, but we’re talking about comps to Alex, too, remember.
Shaun – What does it matter what you label the pitchers? Isn’t their performance the important thing? Of course, I do realize that performance means nothing to you – it’s all in how things project according to your pet formulas, isn’t it?
September 1st, 201110:24 am
Shaun – Re pitchers, I totally understand your methodology. I just disagree with your conclusions…but then, I’m more interested in actual results than “peripherals”.
September 1st, 201110:25 am
Fredi needs to fix his lineup today… no more BMac hitting 3rd! I’ll never understand why some managers monkey around with stuff when it’s working. Put Freeman back in the 3 spot and move Mac to 5th.
Freeman’s bat is going to be very important come late September and October. The guy was raking from the 3 spot, so put him back. Fix what wasn’t broken and now broken because you fixed it when it didn’t need fixing. C’mon man!
September 1st, 201110:26 am
JRW, some teams may have more than one “ace” or “#1.” And I don’t consider Hudson a true “ace” or a “#1.” And I’m not trying to knock Hudson or anything. Just my standards for a legit “ace” or “#1″ are pretty high. It’s more a characteristics, not a ranking. But I could also see labeling pitchers based on rankings, in which case Hudson could very well be an ace by that standard.
September 1st, 201110:27 am
Two org. arms and a potential utility infielder for Jair.
knew Wilson was bad at the plate, but at least, Gonzalez walks into one every blue moon.
Fellas, if the bat comes into play on the decision, neither one of them would be here.
But, in fact, that wasn’t a concern this year and I doubt it would be next year, either. With the addition of Bourn and Chipper’s expected return, it’s going to be a pretty studly lineup 1-7. Nobody is going to care if the SS can hit a lick, as long as he’s lethal with the glove.
September 1st, 201110:28 am
Lew, you label pitchers to get a simple picture of what they typically look like, performance-wise. It’s a way of simplifying reality into labels.
I think the Braves give Pastornicky a shot at the starting SS job in spring training. The kid made a lot of errors, though, this season. Not saying the kid doesn’t have the potential to be a decent fielder, just that he may need more work.
September 1st, 201110:29 am
Braves question to stump your pals: The Braves recently traded for a player who led the NL in triples one season. Who is the player?
Could be…his swing just looks out of whack…I’m sure he’ll get in back in plenty of time for the playoff, though!…
September 1st, 201110:30 am
Labeling pitchers “top of the rotation” or “back end” or “middle of the rotation” is an exercise I enjoy. Shaun makes it less enjoyable.
Shaun, by the way, what’s your take on Ricky Nolasco?
September 1st, 201110:31 am
ncscoots… Chipper’s return is always problematic. And what returns wih Chipper next season is a body that’s one year older.
September 1st, 201110:32 am
Murph, I don’t understand why he has Prado hitting second.
Lew it’s pretty apparent from the way he’s not following through on his throws (it’s why they’re sailing on him) that the oblique is still bothering him.
Yeah…I hate obliques…
I posted some of those stats you were asking about last night—they’re on page 3 and obviously don’t take last night’s game into account. You want I should post them again, or do you just wanna go back to page 3 and find them?
September 1st, 201110:33 am
think the Braves give Pastornicky a shot at the starting SS job in spring training
I think there’s zero chance the team goes into ST hoping that the kid can win the job. They just aren’t going to leave that much up to chance and one kid’s development. The kid would have to have a ST all out of mind for expectations to have a shot, and, even then, I think they’d send him down.
September 1st, 201110:36 am
Was that Jack Wilson, the year he was an All-Star and Silver Slugger?
September 1st, 201110:37 am
Efrim – Shaun makes almost everything less enjoyable, and yet we continue to argue with him. It’s a real puzzlement, but sometimes I just can’t help it. It’s hard to see something outragious without responding. We all need a 12-step program to rid us of this problem.
September 1st, 201110:38 am
Normally, I would go with the idea that 1-7 is pretty good, but since they are locked in for next year. I think Wren should explore an upgrade at short this winter. It would be really nice to have a SS that gets onbase and plays good D.
I was reading the SF Giants blog and they use an amusing term…rosterbation. I see it around here as well.
September 1st, 201110:39 am
Shaun, great idea. Move Uggla out of hitting cleanup because it’s pretty much the only position in the order that he’s had any success hitting in this season. I don’t agree with that but I would like to see what kind of pitches Chipper gets with Uggla behind him. Not enough to further break the batting order, but I’d like to see it.
I do actually agree with hitting Chipper 2nd, though. If his body can handle the extra AB’s, that is.
Yes, correct answer is Jack Wilson, not Michael Bourn. Surprised me when I saw that today, looking over their stats and seeing the bold-faced 12 on that Wilson triples total in ‘04 (denoting league leader).
Bourn had 12 in ‘09, but didn’t lead the league — Victorino had 13 that year.
Speaking of Phillies … Philly ended August with an 86-46 record. They need win just half of the remaining games to tie the franchise record of 101 wins (1976, 1977).
I tend to agree with ’scoots on the SS situation.
TP is young and needs at least another 1/2 season at AAA.
The Braves need a good defensive SS that will take a 1 year or 2 year deal.
I think they will look at all that are available, but if they could get Wilson or AGON for 2 year 4 million (total not per year) deal, I think they would jump on it.
September 1st, 201110:40 am
ncscoots… I think they’ll give Pastornicky a shot in the spring. Doesn’t mean he gets the job. But the way Pastornicky hit this seaon, I think the brass will take a look at him. As I wrote earlier, though, Pastornicky’s glove needs work. I’d bet he plays at Gwinnett at least a portion of ‘12.
September 1st, 201110:41 am
I think the Braves would love for Tyler Pastornicky to remain in AAA until Sept 2012!
September 1st, 201110:45 am
It would be really nice to have a SS that gets onbase and plays good D.
You get no argument from me, LOL. If you can find one who will play for journeyman money, call Frank.
September 1st, 201110:49 am
JRW: Citizens Bank is a nice ballpark. Other than field being too small (cheap home runs, especially to left), no complaints. Sorry, but I really don’t know about which site lines are best, etc., since I’ve only watched game from pressbox.
Bull’s BBQ beyond right field corner is pretty good ‘que, by ballpark standards.
September 1st, 201110:53 am
On the way to work this morning, TNT by AC/DC came on the radio. I couldn’t help but smile, knowing who’s coming back to Turner Field tonight.
September 1st, 201110:55 am
Hillbilly – thought DOB said he was coming back for the phillies series…or are you thinking of someone else?
great band The Duke and The King finally have a new U.S. album that combines songs from their first two including their great import-only “Nothing Gold Can Stay” LP. They’re from Catskills, but got huge in England before stateside.
September 1st, 201110:58 am
Is linebrink still on the team?
If he’s healthy, I do think there’s a chance Wilson starts next season at SS. I think the organization would probably like to transition to Pastornicky by mid ‘12. If that’s the plan, Wilson makes more sense as a bench guy.
September 1st, 201110:59 am
Lew-”He really needed that extra day of rest and in the long run it will be beneficial”
I would only argue that he should have played Friday and still had 3 days off.. When you get “on a roll” in sports, you hate to have time off…How many times have you heard players, coaches, announcers say at the All-Star break when someone is going well, that “they don’t want the time off”, because it stops the momentum, “the roll” they’re on. I’m sure all players could use rest half way through the season. But It’s like playing golf and you birdie 2 or 3 holes in a row going into the turn, you just want to keep playing, not stop by the clubhouse and grab a sandwich or something(are you hungry and could you use a coke or snack ? Sure, but you realize if you do, chances are you don’t hop back out there and pick up where you left off.) FG opted for the sandwich, I think BRian would have wanted to keep playing. FG opted on the side of caution, I get it. And if Brian gets his swing back soon, no harm,no foul. But if this thing lingers, we could be looking back to that game last Friday and wonder what if.
September 1st, 201111:02 am
I agree with your 10:21. I think the oblique is still bothering him. How have you been and how is your son doing?
Murph, people who have studied batting orders find that the number three hitter should be a good homerun guy and you should fill that spot after you’ve fill the more important leadoff, #2 and #4 spots. I think Uggla would be a nice fit there, if you’re going by actual research into ideal batting orders.
I don’t think an extra plate appearance per game is going to increase the chances of Chipper getting hurt. Plus, even if it does, I doubt it’s such a greater risk that it’s not worth the advantages of putting him in the second spot.
September 1st, 201111:03 am
Traffic into downtown should be fun today. Braves, Falcons, & Jackets – nice.
Tommy, I guess you’re right. It’s not that I’m some big Jack Wilson fan or anything, just noting that Alex isn’t the only all-glove guy out there to be had.
Me, I think I’ll hold out for Lpad’s idea.
To the guy who wants info for Citizens Bank Park, not a bad seat in the house, amazing sightlines. If you get restless in your seat, check out Ashburn Alley, lots to do, the best food in baseball, and you can still see the game from there. As for cheap HR’s, it’s a bit small down the lines, but not even close to yeilding the most HR’s. I think Yankees Stadium is a joke, a popup to right field is a HR.
September 1st, 201111:05 am
I think Yankees Stadium is a joke, a popup to right field is a HR.
Heck, broken-bat oppo flares go out in that joint.
monty But if this thing lingers, we could be looking back to that game last Friday and wonder what if.
I’m still looking at July 26th’s game and wondering “what if”…
September 1st, 201111:08 am
Some of my in-laws are in Allentown, Pa. On a visit earlier this summer, went to an Iron Pigs game. They pack fans into that venue like they do at Citizens Bank! The Coca Cola ballpark that the Pigs play in is actually a pretty decent park.
True. Maybe Wren will find a 40 HR LF’er with plus speed and defense who’ll play for the min!!! As long as we’re hoping, we might as well go all the way!!!! (I would put a smiley face emoticon there, but I haven’t invested the mental currency in learning how to do that crap yet.)
September 1st, 201111:09 am
The Phillies pitchers have given up 43 HRs at CBP and 48 away (they have played 4 more at home). Those numbers don’t indicate a home run friendly ball park. The Yankees pitchers have given up 68 at home and 49 on the road. Big difference. Braves pitchers have given up 44 at home and 57 away, indicating that Turner field is below average in allowing HRs.
September 1st, 201111:10 am
Tiger, I reckon I missed that, but I see it now. I was going off the Minor League Report over at Talking Chop:
Peter Moylan started the suspended game, pitching on consecutive days for the first time in his rehab, and he pitched a scoreless inning. Atlanta will activate him off the disabled list tomorrow.
No Shaun – II want to know what a pitcher looks like, I’ll find a photo and do his portrait. And why would you ever want to simplify reality into a label?
Never mind – I probably don’t want to know and certainly don’t want you preaching to me.
So who do Braves fans root for in September. Arizona? Longer flights = harder time with jet lag etc. for trips back and forth, plus the fact that they are actually playing better overall than the Brewers. Or the aforementioned Brewers who are really good at home but much worse on the road. and much closer to travel to with no real time zone problems.
September 1st, 201111:16 am
As long as we’re hoping, we might as well go all the way!!!!
You know, my only real hope for the offseason is that the sticks be ready to play in April. Considering that Heyward, Prado, Uggla, and even Chipper were off their feed for so much of the year, well, the offense has actually not been bad. Turn all those guys around to their norms, and the basic lineup starts looking pretty fearsome.
That’s my baseball Christmas wish this year, anyway. Whatever they do with the pitching in teh offseason, I think I’ll still feel pretty good about that end come March.
Rob from SC (August 31st, 2011 5:40 pm): “DOB
“There is no way Hoover will be part of the New Deal right?”
September 1st, 201111:17 am
DBack – We weathered the storm well. My son? Not so good. They found out the toe they removed was not just an infection, but osteosarcoma – bone cancer. They think removing it got all the cancer, but will do a full body MRI in three weeks.
Wondered why they kept doing chest xrays – now we know – it’s a logicl progression for osteosarcoma. Thankfully, the chest xrays were negative.
jeff r Wilson’s bat is lighter than Alex’s. He ain’t starting for the Braves in’12. He’s probably not a Brave next year, anyway.
depends on what youre looking for. gets on base better, and hits for a higher average. no power at all, though.
i wouldnt take him over alex. go with the devil you know.
Excuse me – Three months, not weeks.
September 1st, 201111:18 am
New Deal was FDR.
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