I’m just wondering why Heyward’s is a “lost season” and Prado’s isn’t.
I’m still curious as to why Heyward’s ceiling is now that of Prado’s and not higher?
But if we want to go your route, real quickly, off the cuff, and into the pot for stirring, Prado is off his year beginning mark by 17 points. Heyward is off his year beginning mark by 38 points. That is more than double the drop of Prado. Hence Prado’s season is off, Heyward’s is lost.
Kind of shocking to see the actual payroll percentages being paid to each player. Nearly 50% of the the entire payroll is going to Lowe, Chipper, McLouth, and KK. I’d argue Chipper’s still worth it, but imagine if we’d spent that money on other players…
I have to be out with the people, Frank. Gotta mingle. You got a face and bod like this you cant contain it behind a s#itty bar all day. Come on, Ill teach you the D.E.N.N.I.S system.
Still waiting on someone to take me up on this: Prado and Heyward
Comparing Heyward to Prado. I can see similarities in single season numbers between a single season of a great player and a lesser player. It happens. That would only mean the lesser player had a greater year or the greater player had a lesser year but not much more than that.
Within two weeks I really hope there will be no more Constanza over Heyward talk. He is crashing back to Earth….Heyward needs to play. I only hope this is resolved by playoff time.
nice to have baseball back again….feels like all our mojo was taken away last Friday.
At least it gave some time for Georgie to really heal up after last weeks 1st base debacle.
Hope Chipper didn’t hurt a finger hunting or fishing or whatever the heck he does on his off days.
Shaun, If hits aren’t worth more than walks than you could say that they are playing pretty equal but walks are not equal to hits. Lets eliminate variables. Would you have a hitter with a .300 avg with a .400 on base percentage or a hitter with a .000 avg with a .400 on base percentage. According to you they are equal. Think about why they aren’t equal….Think harder. Is there value in a hit as opposed to just getting on base for a walk?
I’ll take a guy that’s on a roll over a slumping ex starter just because you like him.
Constanza went down after a freak accident at first. He might or might not be better yet, but his .300+ average is still a heck of a lot better than bench boy.
shaun I’m just wondering why Heyward’s is a “lost season” and Prado’s isn’t.
expectations have alot to do with it. prado is just having a down year. this was supposed to be heywards next step forward. it hasnt been a step forward, thus the lost year. its simple.
TennesseePaul, How is it that Heyward’s ceiling is now that of Prado’s just because they’ve performed equally this season? Can you explain? Heyward is 6 years younger and has better tools and skills, overall.
Maybe you can explain what you mean by “lost” season. All that matters to me is whether Prado and Heyward should play virtually everyday. I think the answer is clearly yes to both. If anything, Prado and Constanza should platoon when Chipper is in the lineup, for the most part. Seems this concept of “lost season” is some arbitrary vague notion that really doesn’t serve any purpose to anyone but those who want to knock Heyward down a peg for one reason or another. If you need to do that to make yourself feel better, okay. But I’m just going to wade through the BS and get to what matters.
The Braves need Heyward to start playing like 2010 Heyward. Tonight would be a good point for some players to start playing up to their potential. JJ needs a good start and Heyward needs to start heating up. Go Braves!
ncscoots, walks are only marginally better than an out? Apparently Alex Gonzalez agrees considering the way he swings at pitches out of the strike zone.
IMHO at least a high BonB rate suggests a hitter knows the strike zone. And maybe our buddy Shaun can chip in with how many times a lead-off scores. I will take the free pass over the out every day all day.
NickB-
” It’s not a matter of your eyes deceiving you. It’s a matter of selective memories. Heyward could go 3-4 tonite and everyone would whine that it was an aberration. But if Constanza goes 0-4 you would say the same thing. It’s like many on here WANT Heyward to fail!! It’s like some jealous projection of their own internal misgivings…. That’s ridiculous”
Me thinks thou protesteth a little too much. If anything it is the opposite of what you said. You are the same guy who posted yesterday that Constanza had “regressed to his minor league mean”,by using a very small sample size. How small? So small that by leaving off his last 2 starts in which he has gone a collective 0-7 and going back 23 AB’s he’s hitting .340. Pretty small don’t ya think?
Constanza in the last 20 games in which he had at least 1AB has hit .333. In the past 10 games in which he has had at least 1 AB he’s hit .266. His last 2 games has him, again 0-7. Small sample size! And that is the extent of his sudden regression! LOL! No doubt if Heyward hit .333 over 20 straight games you would enshrine him into the HOF. And if the last 2 games of that 20 game span he went 0-7 no doubt that would be what? Just a rough couple of games right? Georgie does that and you want to bench him. Your hypocrisy knows no bounds.
Hey, y’all. Been off the blog for these off days, and busy to boot. What’s say we swat some (g)nats tonight – thursday. They are such nasty little creatures.
And I have something to go to tonight that will have me away for at least an hour or so of the first part of the game, so I’ll join y’all as soon as possible tonight. GO BRAVES!!!!
Had a GREAT time for my bachelor weekend. We’ll leave it at that…
…anyway, haven’t even looked at baseball-related things since Friday night and I am soooo ready for the game. I see that SF has come close to eliminating itself from the postseason race this past weekend… 5 games behind ARZ…yikes. If things don’t drastically chance by this time next week we might already know our play-off participants and the match-ups.
Walks can also relate to Ks. A patient hitter willing to take a walk while stubbornly waiting for a pitch he wants to swing at, can get into deep counts and strike out a lot, a la Bobby Abreu. Love that kind of hitter, wear the pitchers out, physically and mentally and make them show all their pitches to following hitters.
I would love for this Heyward vs Constanza conversation to take place in a room full of talent evaluators…it would be over with very quickly. I have been around the game a long time and don’t base my decisions on “liking a guy”. I base my decisions on who the supreme talent is. Constanza has played his way into the lineup, and now will play his way out. Heyward played his way out, now I would like to see him given the chance to play his way back in.
I will take the free pass over the out every day all day.
Who wouldn’t, LOL? But I don’t think you’ll find a post in which I said differently.
Fans of wOBA know that a runs value is ascribed to each offensive event, and those values are relative to their importance. Walks, by their nature, are a passive offensive event and are of lesser runs value than more aggressive events.
The lesser relative value of these events is what leads me to disdain the use of the word “elite” to describe the skill of a player to draw a walk.
Ignore it because it’s called wOBA and wRC+……reason enough for ole phil!
Well, you are obviously smart enough to clearly explain why we should ignore those metrics. Go ahead, please. I’m waiting to hear it.
DAP, All I want to know is what are the best options for the Braves going forward. Seems to me Prado and Heyward should be in there virtually everyday. If there is a platoon situation, it’s in left when Chipper is in the lineup, Prado/Constanza. But I would prefer to let Prado play left virtually every day. The talk of “lost” seasons and whether players are playing up to expectations seem like a separate issue. I don’t think anyone is arguing that Heyward has played up to expectations. And I don’t even know what “lost season” means. All I’m arguing is that playing Prado and Heyward virtually every game is what is best for the Braves; and if they are insistent on getting Constanza in there more than just on Chipper’s days off, he should platoon with Prado when Chipper plays. That’s what most objective, reasonable people believe. Others can talk of “lost seasons,” whatever that means. And we can have a separate discussion about whether players are playing up to expectations.
Go Georgie!….Jeez, cheering for ALL Braves success
Too many sensitive heyward enviasts think just because people cheer for another player to stay hot means that their hoping for another to fail……Not on my team dummies
P.S.
Go Georgie!
Plenty on here have enshrined Constanza on an equally small sample size. I was just pointing out the fact that he’s regressing.
Heyward is not having a good year. I don’t think anyone on here would argue that he isn’t. My entire point is that he’s not going to get any better on the bench. If we were in a 2 game battle for our playoff lives i would understand the point of benching him. (well except that he was hitting the cover off the ball when he got benched.. .971 OPS in prior 8 games before he was benched). But they aren’t. They have a 9 game leade with 29 to play. To lose the wildcard they could go 13 and 16 and to tie the Giants…et al , would have to play 22-7 ball…. seems unlikely.
I think they should get him as many PA’s from now until the end of the season to try and get some consistency. Cuz if you notice, as of late Heyward has either had a monster game or an O-fer…. all he needs is to string together a few 1-3’s with a BB in those 0-fers and he’d be doing just fine.
ncscoots, what do you mean by “passive”? Does that mean we should assign value to a walk? What about the fact that certain players show a repeatable skill to draw walks at a higher rate than others? What about the fact that a walk increases a teams chances to score more than an out does, so therefore is more valuable in that sense? Seems to me that you have to assign at least some value to a walk. And it’s not just all on the pitcher or else we wouldn’t see certain hitters who are consistently good at drawing walks.
Shaun – I can’t explain that which i know nothing about. And i don’t know because I don’t want to know.
phil, so then you can’t truly speak to whether Heyward and Prado have been equals at the plate because you prefer to ignore any objective evident that suggests such a thing. Basically you don’t pay attention to statistical evidence that doesn’t confirm what you want to believe. Thanks for the clarity.
shaun All I want to know is what are the best options for the Braves going forward.
thats fine. no need to put down every person here who might be curious about something else every now and then.
the “lost season” thing isnt meant to help decide how good of a player heyward will be going forward. sometimes we can talk about what has happened, too. you dont have to, if you dont want.
Others can talk of “lost seasons,” whatever that means. And we can have a separate discussion about whether players are playing up to expectations.
ok, great. in the mean time, please stop injecting yourself into all these conversation that you dont care about. i cant quite understand why you do that.
ncscoots, perhaps I mis-read the line about how a walk is only slightly better than a strike out (or something lile that). Would be curious for what is really meant there.
Shaun is to statistical analysis as Robert is to Bobby Cox. Remember last year (and the year before, and the year before, . . .) when you would like to second guess some move that Bobby made, but you were hesitant for fear of appearing to agree with Robert? (After all second guessing the manager is the American way, right?) Same thing now with Shaun and stats. You may want to have a rational conversation about stats. But go there and you’re forced to deal with an obsessive, compulsive egomanical Johnny-one-note. And he’s getting sadder and sadder.
Nick B — Excellent post!! Heyward and Prado have identical wRC+ and wOBA for the season yet it is Heyward who has been benched. Prado is also a lousy defensive left fielder while Jason is an excellent defensive right fielder.
Constanza in his last 9 games: .174/.240/.174 with two walks and four strikeouts. He hasn’t gotten a hit at all in his last three games. My biggest fear of Fredi playing the “hot hand” was that he wouldn’t know when the hot streak was over. Thankfully, he is going with Heyward in the starting lineup – hopefully that means that he knows that Constanza lost his magic. Heyward needs to play almost every day. Constanza needs to be the 4th outfielder.
No one’s season is “lost” except for those imjured and cannot return… Even Heyward can have an impact on this season if he contributes on the field during the play-offs; whether that be a lefty/right platoon guy, in a pinch-hit role, defensive sub, full-time starter, etc, etc… The only circle in which his season might be “lost” is those that will want to use his numbers during arbitration for pay raises. OK… so, we’re done with this discussion now, right?
One thing that’s being overlooked if Constanza is the 4th OF: he’d be an AWESOME asset to have on the bench for some late game pinch running in the playoffs. Like if Mac doubles in the 8th or 9th of a 1-run game, it sure would be nice to have Constanza there to try and tie the game up.
Yep generally it’s preferable to have plate discipline and take walks rather than swing away. how many of us on here have seen Gonzo in a 3-1 count and knew like heck he was gonna swing at the next pitch rather than walk? If the guy would learn to take a walk now and again he’d be a much better hitter….
DAP, so what do you think it means going forward that Heyward is performing at basically a league-average level offensively as a 21-year-old while posting the second-highest walk rate of any player on the team with at least 370 plate appearances? Based on what he’s done this season, I don’t see much reason to change expectations we had at any point last season of what he’s likely to do at his peak.
Good point sir. It’s always good to have a speed guy on the bench for such an occurence. Cuze, let’s be honest, generally the further a guy hits it, the slower he is! lol.
Georgie has a lot of value as a bench guy due to his ability to at least be avg in CF and the fact that he can pinch run late in games and/or pinch hit for the pitcher in the 9th when an attempted sac bunt could possibly lead to a hit.
And so at the end of August, the young man from Henry County walked up the steps of the dugout and assumed his rightful place. Buoyed by days of hard work put in the cage under the tutelage of a future Hall of Famer, he went 4-5 that night, with 2 HRs and 5 RBIs…a performance that provided the first indication of what would later prove to be a meteoric September rise ending with nothing short of post-season glory.
Co-sign on the “primary pinch-hitter” role. Hinkse gets starts not because he’s the 4th OFer or back-up 1B…it’s just to get extra at-bats to stay sharp.
Meanwhile, the Nats have lost 6 in a row coming in to this game… great we all know what that means.
Gonzo’s at bats like clock work. First pitch fastball swinging, slider low and away, slider low and away. Back to the bench. If that first fastball is middle in, he will crush it. Other than that, out.
Sounds like Hanson’s initial diagnosis was correct: Small undersurface rotator cuff tear.
Honestly, who cares though? I see no “meaning” in a statement like that. It’s a sub-optimal situation around here when there are no “meaningful” comments being posted.
If you’re not posting large samples to analyze, you’re not Shaun. And if you’re not Shaun, you have no meaning. And if you have no meaning, you’re sub-optimal.
Heath, well, no one has defined what they mean by “lost season” so it basically means whatever they want it to mean.
Seems someone tried to claim it was related to what a player might be going forward. I wish someone would explain that.
If it means that a player should be benched regularly for the rest of the season, I don’t see how that applies to Heyward, given that he’s been equal to Prado at the plate so far, has better tools and skills, is younger and is a better defensive outfielder; so I think Heyward should play more or less everyday (along with Prado).
Seems to me someone threw the term “lost season” out there because they want to emphasis the point that Heyward isn’t playing up to expectations, which no one is arguing against. Perhaps it’s not about his performance but more about anyone who foolishly compared him to [insert Hall of Famer]. But that doesn’t get us to the questions of who are the best options for the Braves or what is Heyward likely to do going forward. If you are bothered because a group of fans compared a young player to Hall of Famers, seems you should take it up with those fans, because that’s not really a worthwhile conversation in my opinion.
Heyward has hit .211 over is last 20 games in which he has had at least 1 AB. (12-57). Almost 3 AB’s a game. 7-30 his last 10 games.233 avg. He’s getting some AB’s. He’s (I’m sure) taking extra BP. So, it’s not like Georgie is depriving him of his God given right to be the starter. All he has to do is show any kind of sign, longer than 1AB in a game that he is breaking out and I’m sure he will demand (by his performance) more playing time. If Georgie starts consistently faltering, bench him! (he hasn’t shown it yet) But what sense does it make to not play the guy who’se been hot for over a month when you’re trying to chase down the Phillies and your replacement is barely above the Mendoza line? That is, unless the Phils are out of reach and the Braves have thrown in the towel and are only playing for the WC.
I mentioned in another thread that Constanza would have been a better starter tonight simply because of who was pitching, Livan Hernandez. He thrives on free swinging hitters like Chipper, McCann, Uggla, Gonzalez and for now Heyward. Last year Heyward was patient and selective. This year he is neither. Makes up his mind to swing before pitch is made. Constanza has gotten away from what got him to the majors, hitting the ball on the ground and being a contact hitter. Hitting the ball on the ground to short or a slow roller to 2nd gives him a better than average shot at a base hit or error because of his speed. Lately he has been flying out to left field instead of hitting ball on the ground. That homerun to leftfield may have given him Furcal’s visions of being a power hitter. He is a singles and gap hitter. he needs to stick to that.
Since Lanman is starting tomorrow, Fredi may have started Heyward tonight and will start Constanza tomorrow because he hits lefty’s beter than Heyward.
Sounds like Hanson’s initial diagnosis was correct: Small undersurface rotator cuff tear.
DOB says he needs a couple of weeks rest. Does anyone know if these kind of tears can heal over the course of the offseason, or be fixed with minor surgery?
You’d sure like to see Hanson have a couple starts before the playoffs. More for 2012 than this year. Lots of uncertainty if he can’t make it back. But, if they truly believe it’s minor enough to just rest and rehab, then I guess that’s there answer.
Move on with dealing either Lowe or Jurrjens. Preferably Lowe….
RC… really cool link. Gives a great mental picture of how much money is tied into Lowe, KK, and McLouth. It is hard to argue that Chipper hasn’t earned that big of a salary. I know he doesn’t put up the numbers that he used to, but he also puts butts in the seats, and makes this a better team with his leadership and what is left of his physical talents.
As for Lowe and KK, Wren was put in a bad spot when they signed those two guys that year. They had 0 pitchers in the minors who were ready to be brought up and so they had to overpay. I think it’s safe to say the Braves won’t be in the business of bidding for the services of any older pitchers from overseas (KK), or overpaying for a good veteran pitcher (Lowe).
This organization is in a really good place right now. They have 5 good prospects who could be great, a couple of them (Minor, Beachy) getting some time in the rotation and a lot of money coming off the books. It’s going to be an exciting next 10 years to watch these players develop.
Here’s to making a run at Pujols next year… (tongue in cheek)….
Nationals are going to be a lot better in 2013, that I agree. Not sure if they will get Fielder though.
NL East will be a force two years from now. Braves will have sustained success because of their pitching, but I venture to guess it won’t ever be as easy as it was this year.
I think most scouts would agree with NickB and Shaun …slowhite
nah that ain’t really so . most scouts have little deep knowledge of stats that’s not their bailiwick.
scouts are judging a player on physical tools and growth projection, its the sabergeeks who judge them by stats.
Both bring valuable knowledge to the process,
He thrives on free swinging hitters like Chipper, McCann, Uggla, Gonzalez and for now Heyward….Ijudgenot
I judge not too, but if I did I would judge that calling Chipper a free swinger would be a basis for excommunication from the meaningful section of the blog………
1,671 comments Add your comment
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
4:35 pm
I’m just wondering why Heyward’s is a “lost season” and Prado’s isn’t.
I’m still curious as to why Heyward’s ceiling is now that of Prado’s and not higher?
But if we want to go your route, real quickly, off the cuff, and into the pot for stirring, Prado is off his year beginning mark by 17 points. Heyward is off his year beginning mark by 38 points. That is more than double the drop of Prado. Hence Prado’s season is off, Heyward’s is lost.
Frank Reynolds
August 30th, 2011
4:36 pm
Dennis! Stop posting crap and get behind the bar! I can’t believe we’re related…
RC
August 30th, 2011
4:37 pm
This might be the coolest link I’ve found all week:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/index.php?team=ATL&cyear=2011
Kind of shocking to see the actual payroll percentages being paid to each player. Nearly 50% of the the entire payroll is going to Lowe, Chipper, McLouth, and KK. I’d argue Chipper’s still worth it, but imagine if we’d spent that money on other players…
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
4:37 pm
A slow runner on first that isn’t going to reach third on a single
This is what happens when you merely have sufficient lead-off hitters instead of legitimate.
CrαZy
August 30th, 2011
4:38 pm
I think most scouts would agree with NickB and Shaun.
I agree, but I’d add that most scouts would likely beat the hell out of both of em after spending 5 minutes discussing baseball.
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
4:40 pm
This is what happens when you merely have sufficient lead-off hitters instead of legitimate.
I think I’d prefer leadoff hitters who were optimal.
Dennis Reynolds
August 30th, 2011
4:41 pm
I have to be out with the people, Frank. Gotta mingle. You got a face and bod like this you cant contain it behind a s#itty bar all day. Come on, Ill teach you the D.E.N.N.I.S system.
timthebrave
August 30th, 2011
4:41 pm
Martin Prado .270, .316, .406
Jason Heyward .220 .307 .393
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
4:42 pm
Still waiting on someone to take me up on this: Prado and Heyward
Comparing Heyward to Prado. I can see similarities in single season numbers between a single season of a great player and a lesser player. It happens. That would only mean the lesser player had a greater year or the greater player had a lesser year but not much more than that.
Murph
August 30th, 2011
4:42 pm
Deer hunting!!
With my bare hands
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
4:42 pm
I think I’d prefer leadoff hitters who were optimal.
Ha!
Slowhiteguy
August 30th, 2011
4:42 pm
Within two weeks I really hope there will be no more Constanza over Heyward talk. He is crashing back to Earth….Heyward needs to play. I only hope this is resolved by playoff time.
Summer of George
August 30th, 2011
4:43 pm
nice to have baseball back again….feels like all our mojo was taken away last Friday.
At least it gave some time for Georgie to really heal up after last weeks 1st base debacle.
Hope Chipper didn’t hurt a finger hunting or fishing or whatever the heck he does on his off days.
Murph
August 30th, 2011
4:44 pm
A blog with both Shaun and Dennis Reynolds….
Makes me feel like I did during the Subway Series. Sick to my stomach and full of hate, but at least it’s baseball.
phil
August 30th, 2011
4:44 pm
Ignore it because it’s called wOBA and wRC+……reason enough for ole phil!
timthebrave
August 30th, 2011
4:45 pm
Shaun, If hits aren’t worth more than walks than you could say that they are playing pretty equal but walks are not equal to hits. Lets eliminate variables. Would you have a hitter with a .300 avg with a .400 on base percentage or a hitter with a .000 avg with a .400 on base percentage. According to you they are equal. Think about why they aren’t equal….Think harder. Is there value in a hit as opposed to just getting on base for a walk?
CrαZy
August 30th, 2011
4:46 pm
With my bare hands
YES!!!
Kat
August 30th, 2011
4:46 pm
Thanks for the update Carroll.
Everyone enjoy tonight’s game– I’ll be at a concert, first one of the year..how sad is that? Wow didn’t really think about it till now.
Fast White Guy
August 30th, 2011
4:48 pm
I’ll take a guy that’s on a roll over a slumping ex starter just because you like him.
Constanza went down after a freak accident at first. He might or might not be better yet, but his .300+ average is still a heck of a lot better than bench boy.
DAP
August 30th, 2011
4:49 pm
shaun I’m just wondering why Heyward’s is a “lost season” and Prado’s isn’t.
expectations have alot to do with it. prado is just having a down year. this was supposed to be heywards next step forward. it hasnt been a step forward, thus the lost year. its simple.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
4:49 pm
TennesseePaul, How is it that Heyward’s ceiling is now that of Prado’s just because they’ve performed equally this season? Can you explain? Heyward is 6 years younger and has better tools and skills, overall.
Maybe you can explain what you mean by “lost” season. All that matters to me is whether Prado and Heyward should play virtually everyday. I think the answer is clearly yes to both. If anything, Prado and Constanza should platoon when Chipper is in the lineup, for the most part. Seems this concept of “lost season” is some arbitrary vague notion that really doesn’t serve any purpose to anyone but those who want to knock Heyward down a peg for one reason or another. If you need to do that to make yourself feel better, okay. But I’m just going to wade through the BS and get to what matters.
timthebrave
August 30th, 2011
4:49 pm
The Braves need Heyward to start playing like 2010 Heyward. Tonight would be a good point for some players to start playing up to their potential. JJ needs a good start and Heyward needs to start heating up. Go Braves!
Heisenberg
August 30th, 2011
4:51 pm
ncscoots, walks are only marginally better than an out? Apparently Alex Gonzalez agrees considering the way he swings at pitches out of the strike zone.
IMHO at least a high BonB rate suggests a hitter knows the strike zone. And maybe our buddy Shaun can chip in with how many times a lead-off scores. I will take the free pass over the out every day all day.
cricket
August 30th, 2011
4:51 pm
Hope Chipper didn’t hurt a finger hunting or fishing or whatever the heck he does on his off days.
one specific finger can get some workout driving in atlanta
monty
August 30th, 2011
4:51 pm
NickB-
” It’s not a matter of your eyes deceiving you. It’s a matter of selective memories. Heyward could go 3-4 tonite and everyone would whine that it was an aberration. But if Constanza goes 0-4 you would say the same thing. It’s like many on here WANT Heyward to fail!! It’s like some jealous projection of their own internal misgivings…. That’s ridiculous”
Me thinks thou protesteth a little too much. If anything it is the opposite of what you said. You are the same guy who posted yesterday that Constanza had “regressed to his minor league mean”,by using a very small sample size. How small? So small that by leaving off his last 2 starts in which he has gone a collective 0-7 and going back 23 AB’s he’s hitting .340. Pretty small don’t ya think?
Constanza in the last 20 games in which he had at least 1AB has hit .333. In the past 10 games in which he has had at least 1 AB he’s hit .266. His last 2 games has him, again 0-7. Small sample size! And that is the extent of his sudden regression! LOL! No doubt if Heyward hit .333 over 20 straight games you would enshrine him into the HOF. And if the last 2 games of that 20 game span he went 0-7 no doubt that would be what? Just a rough couple of games right? Georgie does that and you want to bench him. Your hypocrisy knows no bounds.
bravesgrl4life
August 30th, 2011
4:53 pm
Hey, y’all. Been off the blog for these off days, and busy to boot. What’s say we swat some (g)nats tonight – thursday. They are such nasty little creatures.
bravesgrl4life
August 30th, 2011
4:54 pm
And I have something to go to tonight that will have me away for at least an hour or so of the first part of the game, so I’ll join y’all as soon as possible tonight. GO BRAVES!!!!
Heath
August 30th, 2011
4:55 pm
Had a GREAT time for my bachelor weekend. We’ll leave it at that…
…anyway, haven’t even looked at baseball-related things since Friday night and I am soooo ready for the game. I see that SF has come close to eliminating itself from the postseason race this past weekend… 5 games behind ARZ…yikes. If things don’t drastically chance by this time next week we might already know our play-off participants and the match-ups.
cricket
August 30th, 2011
4:56 pm
Walks can also relate to Ks. A patient hitter willing to take a walk while stubbornly waiting for a pitch he wants to swing at, can get into deep counts and strike out a lot, a la Bobby Abreu. Love that kind of hitter, wear the pitchers out, physically and mentally and make them show all their pitches to following hitters.
Slowhiteguy
August 30th, 2011
4:56 pm
I would love for this Heyward vs Constanza conversation to take place in a room full of talent evaluators…it would be over with very quickly. I have been around the game a long time and don’t base my decisions on “liking a guy”. I base my decisions on who the supreme talent is. Constanza has played his way into the lineup, and now will play his way out. Heyward played his way out, now I would like to see him given the chance to play his way back in.
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
4:56 pm
I will take the free pass over the out every day all day.
Who wouldn’t, LOL? But I don’t think you’ll find a post in which I said differently.
Fans of wOBA know that a runs value is ascribed to each offensive event, and those values are relative to their importance. Walks, by their nature, are a passive offensive event and are of lesser runs value than more aggressive events.
The lesser relative value of these events is what leads me to disdain the use of the word “elite” to describe the skill of a player to draw a walk.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
4:57 pm
Ignore it because it’s called wOBA and wRC+……reason enough for ole phil!
Well, you are obviously smart enough to clearly explain why we should ignore those metrics. Go ahead, please. I’m waiting to hear it.
DAP, All I want to know is what are the best options for the Braves going forward. Seems to me Prado and Heyward should be in there virtually everyday. If there is a platoon situation, it’s in left when Chipper is in the lineup, Prado/Constanza. But I would prefer to let Prado play left virtually every day. The talk of “lost” seasons and whether players are playing up to expectations seem like a separate issue. I don’t think anyone is arguing that Heyward has played up to expectations. And I don’t even know what “lost season” means. All I’m arguing is that playing Prado and Heyward virtually every game is what is best for the Braves; and if they are insistent on getting Constanza in there more than just on Chipper’s days off, he should platoon with Prado when Chipper plays. That’s what most objective, reasonable people believe. Others can talk of “lost seasons,” whatever that means. And we can have a separate discussion about whether players are playing up to expectations.
phil
August 30th, 2011
4:57 pm
Shaun = BS
Wade through yourself…
Summer of George
August 30th, 2011
4:59 pm
Go Georgie!….Jeez, cheering for ALL Braves success
Too many sensitive heyward enviasts think just because people cheer for another player to stay hot means that their hoping for another to fail……Not on my team dummies
P.S.
Go Georgie!
NickB
August 30th, 2011
5:00 pm
monty
Plenty on here have enshrined Constanza on an equally small sample size. I was just pointing out the fact that he’s regressing.
Heyward is not having a good year. I don’t think anyone on here would argue that he isn’t. My entire point is that he’s not going to get any better on the bench. If we were in a 2 game battle for our playoff lives i would understand the point of benching him. (well except that he was hitting the cover off the ball when he got benched.. .971 OPS in prior 8 games before he was benched). But they aren’t. They have a 9 game leade with 29 to play. To lose the wildcard they could go 13 and 16 and to tie the Giants…et al , would have to play 22-7 ball…. seems unlikely.
I think they should get him as many PA’s from now until the end of the season to try and get some consistency. Cuz if you notice, as of late Heyward has either had a monster game or an O-fer…. all he needs is to string together a few 1-3’s with a BB in those 0-fers and he’d be doing just fine.
phil
August 30th, 2011
5:00 pm
Shaun – I can’t explain that which i know nothing about. And i don’t know because I don’t want to know.
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
5:00 pm
one specific finger can get some workout driving in atlanta
This one was funny.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
5:02 pm
ncscoots, what do you mean by “passive”? Does that mean we should assign value to a walk? What about the fact that certain players show a repeatable skill to draw walks at a higher rate than others? What about the fact that a walk increases a teams chances to score more than an out does, so therefore is more valuable in that sense? Seems to me that you have to assign at least some value to a walk. And it’s not just all on the pitcher or else we wouldn’t see certain hitters who are consistently good at drawing walks.
RC
August 30th, 2011
5:03 pm
Shaun – I can’t explain that which i know nothing about. And i don’t know because I don’t want to know.
That being the case, you really aren’t qualified to speak on whether it’s a valuable measure or not.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
5:04 pm
Shaun – I can’t explain that which i know nothing about. And i don’t know because I don’t want to know.
phil, so then you can’t truly speak to whether Heyward and Prado have been equals at the plate because you prefer to ignore any objective evident that suggests such a thing. Basically you don’t pay attention to statistical evidence that doesn’t confirm what you want to believe. Thanks for the clarity.
DAP
August 30th, 2011
5:04 pm
shaun All I want to know is what are the best options for the Braves going forward.
thats fine. no need to put down every person here who might be curious about something else every now and then.
the “lost season” thing isnt meant to help decide how good of a player heyward will be going forward. sometimes we can talk about what has happened, too. you dont have to, if you dont want.
Others can talk of “lost seasons,” whatever that means. And we can have a separate discussion about whether players are playing up to expectations.
ok, great. in the mean time, please stop injecting yourself into all these conversation that you dont care about. i cant quite understand why you do that.
Heisenberg
August 30th, 2011
5:06 pm
ncscoots, perhaps I mis-read the line about how a walk is only slightly better than a strike out (or something lile that). Would be curious for what is really meant there.
DAP
August 30th, 2011
5:06 pm
NickB I think they should get him as many PA’s from now until the end of the season to try and get some consistency.
i totally agree with this. especially, like you said with a playoff spot well in hand.
Grizzled Veteran
August 30th, 2011
5:07 pm
Shaun is to statistical analysis as Robert is to Bobby Cox. Remember last year (and the year before, and the year before, . . .) when you would like to second guess some move that Bobby made, but you were hesitant for fear of appearing to agree with Robert? (After all second guessing the manager is the American way, right?) Same thing now with Shaun and stats. You may want to have a rational conversation about stats. But go there and you’re forced to deal with an obsessive, compulsive egomanical Johnny-one-note. And he’s getting sadder and sadder.
Slowhiteguy
August 30th, 2011
5:07 pm
A lot of the value of a walk is its ability to measure a hitters plate approach, not just the walk itself.
cricket
August 30th, 2011
5:08 pm
I propose a moratorium on the dead horse discussion about Heyward – Biff from 4:27 AM to 4:39 AM tomorrow morning
Ed Glennon
August 30th, 2011
5:09 pm
I will tell you who is having a lost season – it’s the Astros.
JT Grace
August 30th, 2011
5:10 pm
Nick B — Excellent post!! Heyward and Prado have identical wRC+ and wOBA for the season yet it is Heyward who has been benched. Prado is also a lousy defensive left fielder while Jason is an excellent defensive right fielder.
Constanza in his last 9 games: .174/.240/.174 with two walks and four strikeouts. He hasn’t gotten a hit at all in his last three games. My biggest fear of Fredi playing the “hot hand” was that he wouldn’t know when the hot streak was over. Thankfully, he is going with Heyward in the starting lineup – hopefully that means that he knows that Constanza lost his magic. Heyward needs to play almost every day. Constanza needs to be the 4th outfielder.
RC
August 30th, 2011
5:10 pm
I will tell you who is having a lost season – it’s the Astros.
They are working on a lost decade….
cricket
August 30th, 2011
5:11 pm
Constanza needs to be the 4th outfielder.
what about hinske?
Heath
August 30th, 2011
5:12 pm
No one’s season is “lost” except for those imjured and cannot return… Even Heyward can have an impact on this season if he contributes on the field during the play-offs; whether that be a lefty/right platoon guy, in a pinch-hit role, defensive sub, full-time starter, etc, etc… The only circle in which his season might be “lost” is those that will want to use his numbers during arbitration for pay raises. OK… so, we’re done with this discussion now, right?
Moving on…
Grizzled Veteran
August 30th, 2011
5:12 pm
Ed Glennon, you wouldn’t by any chance be related to Eddie Glennon, the old B’ham Barons GM would you?
RC
August 30th, 2011
5:12 pm
One thing that’s being overlooked if Constanza is the 4th OF: he’d be an AWESOME asset to have on the bench for some late game pinch running in the playoffs. Like if Mac doubles in the 8th or 9th of a 1-run game, it sure would be nice to have Constanza there to try and tie the game up.
JT Grace
August 30th, 2011
5:13 pm
Heyward’s last 8 games: .261/.280/.435 — while not good it is better than Constanza’s line for the same time period.
NickB
August 30th, 2011
5:13 pm
@ slowhiteguy
Yep generally it’s preferable to have plate discipline and take walks rather than swing away. how many of us on here have seen Gonzo in a 3-1 count and knew like heck he was gonna swing at the next pitch rather than walk? If the guy would learn to take a walk now and again he’d be a much better hitter….
JT Grace
August 30th, 2011
5:14 pm
what about hinske?
I consider Hinske to be the primary pinch hitter and emergency outfielder.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
5:15 pm
DAP, so what do you think it means going forward that Heyward is performing at basically a league-average level offensively as a 21-year-old while posting the second-highest walk rate of any player on the team with at least 370 plate appearances? Based on what he’s done this season, I don’t see much reason to change expectations we had at any point last season of what he’s likely to do at his peak.
NickB
August 30th, 2011
5:15 pm
@ RC
Good point sir. It’s always good to have a speed guy on the bench for such an occurence. Cuze, let’s be honest, generally the further a guy hits it, the slower he is! lol.
Georgie has a lot of value as a bench guy due to his ability to at least be avg in CF and the fact that he can pinch run late in games and/or pinch hit for the pitcher in the 9th when an attempted sac bunt could possibly lead to a hit.
Slowhiteguy
August 30th, 2011
5:16 pm
I actually have my three boys watch Gonzo’s at bats to see what not to do. I have never seen a worse approach at the plate. He can pick it though.
NickB
August 30th, 2011
5:17 pm
I think Gonzo tries to hit everything out of the park…. It’s the only reason he would swing so haphazardly at EVERYTHING!!
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 30th, 2011
5:17 pm
RC Like if Mac doubles
That sounds like FUN!!
So it is written
August 30th, 2011
5:18 pm
Let’s Go Hey-Ward!!!!
From the MLB Films vault:
And so at the end of August, the young man from Henry County walked up the steps of the dugout and assumed his rightful place. Buoyed by days of hard work put in the cage under the tutelage of a future Hall of Famer, he went 4-5 that night, with 2 HRs and 5 RBIs…a performance that provided the first indication of what would later prove to be a meteoric September rise ending with nothing short of post-season glory.
So it shall be!!!!!!!!!
Heath
August 30th, 2011
5:18 pm
Re: What about Hinkse?
Co-sign on the “primary pinch-hitter” role. Hinkse gets starts not because he’s the 4th OFer or back-up 1B…it’s just to get extra at-bats to stay sharp.
Meanwhile, the Nats have lost 6 in a row coming in to this game… great
we all know what that means.
Slowhiteguy
August 30th, 2011
5:19 pm
Gonzo’s at bats like clock work. First pitch fastball swinging, slider low and away, slider low and away. Back to the bench. If that first fastball is middle in, he will crush it. Other than that, out.
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
5:20 pm
Sounds like Hanson’s initial diagnosis was correct: Small undersurface rotator cuff tear.
Honestly, who cares though? I see no “meaning” in a statement like that. It’s a sub-optimal situation around here when there are no “meaningful” comments being posted.
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
5:22 pm
Heyward’s last 8 games: .261/.280/.435
If you’re not posting large samples to analyze, you’re not Shaun. And if you’re not Shaun, you have no meaning. And if you have no meaning, you’re sub-optimal.
Heisenberg
August 30th, 2011
5:23 pm
Gonzo takes a pitchers approach to hitting…..swing hard just in case you hit it
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
5:24 pm
Heath, well, no one has defined what they mean by “lost season” so it basically means whatever they want it to mean.
Seems someone tried to claim it was related to what a player might be going forward. I wish someone would explain that.
If it means that a player should be benched regularly for the rest of the season, I don’t see how that applies to Heyward, given that he’s been equal to Prado at the plate so far, has better tools and skills, is younger and is a better defensive outfielder; so I think Heyward should play more or less everyday (along with Prado).
Seems to me someone threw the term “lost season” out there because they want to emphasis the point that Heyward isn’t playing up to expectations, which no one is arguing against. Perhaps it’s not about his performance but more about anyone who foolishly compared him to [insert Hall of Famer]. But that doesn’t get us to the questions of who are the best options for the Braves or what is Heyward likely to do going forward. If you are bothered because a group of fans compared a young player to Hall of Famers, seems you should take it up with those fans, because that’s not really a worthwhile conversation in my opinion.
monty
August 30th, 2011
5:24 pm
Heyward has hit .211 over is last 20 games in which he has had at least 1 AB. (12-57). Almost 3 AB’s a game. 7-30 his last 10 games.233 avg. He’s getting some AB’s. He’s (I’m sure) taking extra BP. So, it’s not like Georgie is depriving him of his God given right to be the starter. All he has to do is show any kind of sign, longer than 1AB in a game that he is breaking out and I’m sure he will demand (by his performance) more playing time. If Georgie starts consistently faltering, bench him! (he hasn’t shown it yet) But what sense does it make to not play the guy who’se been hot for over a month when you’re trying to chase down the Phillies and your replacement is barely above the Mendoza line? That is, unless the Phils are out of reach and the Braves have thrown in the towel and are only playing for the WC.
cricket
August 30th, 2011
5:24 pm
I still think AGon is going to hit a pitch 6 inches out (or in) to drive in winning run in this WS…
Slowhiteguy
August 30th, 2011
5:24 pm
I can’t count how many times I rip Gonzo after at bats only to marvel at a play he makes defensively. He is truly an artist defensively.
Slowhiteguy
August 30th, 2011
5:25 pm
I know that info doesn’t have much meaning…
Kat
August 30th, 2011
5:25 pm
Craig and Jonny were just on MLB Network. Apparently Jonny has the largest female fan club haha.
Slowhiteguy
August 30th, 2011
5:26 pm
Definitely sub-optimal.
RC
August 30th, 2011
5:26 pm
Craig and Jonny were just on MLB Network. Apparently Jonny has the largest female fan club haha.
The largest fan club, or the largest females?
ijudgenot
August 30th, 2011
5:33 pm
I mentioned in another thread that Constanza would have been a better starter tonight simply because of who was pitching, Livan Hernandez. He thrives on free swinging hitters like Chipper, McCann, Uggla, Gonzalez and for now Heyward. Last year Heyward was patient and selective. This year he is neither. Makes up his mind to swing before pitch is made. Constanza has gotten away from what got him to the majors, hitting the ball on the ground and being a contact hitter. Hitting the ball on the ground to short or a slow roller to 2nd gives him a better than average shot at a base hit or error because of his speed. Lately he has been flying out to left field instead of hitting ball on the ground. That homerun to leftfield may have given him Furcal’s visions of being a power hitter. He is a singles and gap hitter. he needs to stick to that.
Since Lanman is starting tomorrow, Fredi may have started Heyward tonight and will start Constanza tomorrow because he hits lefty’s beter than Heyward.
Snotboogie
August 30th, 2011
5:34 pm
Sounds like Hanson’s initial diagnosis was correct: Small undersurface rotator cuff tear.
DOB says he needs a couple of weeks rest. Does anyone know if these kind of tears can heal over the course of the offseason, or be fixed with minor surgery?
Bravofan
August 30th, 2011
5:35 pm
Let’s try to not allow Livian to get a homer I will consider that a success.
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
5:38 pm
Does anyone know if these kind of tears can heal over the course of the offseason, or be fixed with minor surgery?
Where is Steve from Ohio at?
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
5:40 pm
You’d sure like to see Hanson have a couple starts before the playoffs. More for 2012 than this year. Lots of uncertainty if he can’t make it back. But, if they truly believe it’s minor enough to just rest and rehab, then I guess that’s there answer.
Move on with dealing either Lowe or Jurrjens. Preferably Lowe….
JT Grace
August 30th, 2011
5:41 pm
“All he has to do is show any kind of sign, longer than 1AB in a game that he is breaking out “
Do you mean like hitting .261 for the last two weeks?
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
5:42 pm
2012 rotation: Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, Beachy, Minor.
Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino at Triple-A.
Lowe on another team.
It’d be long, but that’s my long sleeve t-shirt idea for this winter.
Nate from State
August 30th, 2011
5:42 pm
RC… really cool link. Gives a great mental picture of how much money is tied into Lowe, KK, and McLouth. It is hard to argue that Chipper hasn’t earned that big of a salary. I know he doesn’t put up the numbers that he used to, but he also puts butts in the seats, and makes this a better team with his leadership and what is left of his physical talents.
As for Lowe and KK, Wren was put in a bad spot when they signed those two guys that year. They had 0 pitchers in the minors who were ready to be brought up and so they had to overpay. I think it’s safe to say the Braves won’t be in the business of bidding for the services of any older pitchers from overseas (KK), or overpaying for a good veteran pitcher (Lowe).
This organization is in a really good place right now. They have 5 good prospects who could be great, a couple of them (Minor, Beachy) getting some time in the rotation and a lot of money coming off the books. It’s going to be an exciting next 10 years to watch these players develop.
Here’s to making a run at Pujols next year… (tongue in cheek)….
NickB
August 30th, 2011
5:42 pm
@ RC that sir , is funny!!
2013 Nats Attack
August 30th, 2011
5:45 pm
C Wilson Ramos
1B Prince Fielder
2B Anthony Rendon
SS Danny Espinosa
3B Ryan Zimmerman
LF Jayson Werth
CF B.J. Upton
RF Bryce Harper
noliee
August 30th, 2011
5:46 pm
Walks are a passive offensive event, only marginally better than an out. …scoots
oh that is soooo hard to pass by
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
5:48 pm
Wow. Just saw this from RC: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/index.php?team=ATL&cyear=2011
Greatest link/tool of all time. A more colorful breakdown than those Cot’s spreadsheets.
Peter
August 30th, 2011
5:52 pm
MLB Network made Kimbrel and Venters late for stretches.
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
5:53 pm
Nationals are going to be a lot better in 2013, that I agree. Not sure if they will get Fielder though.
NL East will be a force two years from now. Braves will have sustained success because of their pitching, but I venture to guess it won’t ever be as easy as it was this year.
Ed Glennon
August 30th, 2011
5:56 pm
Grizzled Veteran
I am his son.
Slowhiteguy
August 30th, 2011
5:56 pm
DOB tweeting that Hanson said Andrews calld it normal wear and tear. Cleared him to begin rehabbing again, no timetable.
noliee
August 30th, 2011
6:01 pm
I think most scouts would agree with NickB and Shaun …slowhite
nah that ain’t really so . most scouts have little deep knowledge of stats that’s not their bailiwick.
scouts are judging a player on physical tools and growth projection, its the sabergeeks who judge them by stats.
Both bring valuable knowledge to the process,
Slowhiteguy
August 30th, 2011
6:04 pm
Noliee….I agree….but my point was exactly what you said. Scouts love Heyward, sabergeeks would play the hot hand in Constanza.
Slowhiteguy
August 30th, 2011
6:04 pm
I think the truth always lies somewhere in the middle.
Braveone
August 30th, 2011
6:06 pm
From the previous blog which had 1,263 comments, noliee led the way with 74 posts. There were 230 different poster names. Here are the Top 25:
Rank Poster Frequency
1 noliee 74
2 Shaun 72
3 Efrim 58
4 ncscoots 55
5 Anders 48
6 NickB 41
7 DAP 39
8 TennesseePaul 33
9 McFann :Ô: :Ô: 29
10 raleighbravefan 25
11 Random 24
12 T for Texas 24
13 Venice Jim 23
14 Bay Area Steve 22
15 Ward 22
16 chuck 22
17 JRW 20
18 Jimmy 20
19 Lew 19
20 Snotboogie 19
21 timthebrave 17
22 phil 16
23 RC 15
24 abeeeewright 15
25 Bruno Brigadoon 13
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
6:09 pm
3 Efrim 58
Bronze!
AZBravoFan
August 30th, 2011
6:09 pm
Hey, as frustrating as D. Lowe has been at times, anybody still wish we had gotten A.J. Burnett?
noliee
August 30th, 2011
6:09 pm
He thrives on free swinging hitters like Chipper, McCann, Uggla, Gonzalez and for now Heyward….Ijudgenot
I judge not too, but if I did I would judge that calling Chipper a free swinger would be a basis for excommunication from the meaningful section of the blog………
noliee
August 30th, 2011
6:11 pm
Murph loved the line about the subway series @ 4:44
Carroll Rogers
August 30th, 2011
6:12 pm
Braves who are headed to Arizona Fall League:
LH Sean Gilmartin
RH Billy Bullock
RH Erik Cordier
RH JJ Hoover
C Christian Bethancourt
2B Phil Gosselin
OF Todd Cunningham