Props to csg for that link. I’m particularly intrigued by a single sentence:
“It is the time of the year that we realize that the ballots of most baseball scribes make absolutely no logical sense. It is the time of year when a (particularly ossified) cadre of scribes become intellectual contortionists as they attempt to justify their decisions not to vote for the clearly most deserving player.”
Now, this guy is firmly tongue-in-cheek with this article. However, I begin to see a faint glimmer of the origins of “ignorant BBWAA geezers”. And because that is important, meaningful stuff, I thought I should give you folks a heads-up.
Tommy T, hmm…I don’t see where your 3:26 post helps me to see that Prado’s season is any less of a “lost” season than Heyward’s. Apparently there are a lot smart enough to know that it is but they refuse to explain. Oh, please, share your superior knowledge to the rest of us.
August 30th, 2011
3:35 pm
phil, so does that mean Prado’s season is a “lost” one? Seriously, I don’t get it. Perhaps you can use your superior knowledge to explain.
*****************
His season is far from lost. It’s down from last year, clearly, but he has helped the team win on a somewhat consistent basis, unlike your man crush buddy who sometimes plays right field.
You won’t hear me claiming to have superior knowledge on much of anything. Way too many very smart people post here but regrettably, one of them isn’t you.
@ phil, I stayed at a Holiday express inn last night and I know that there is a 100% chance that shaun can NOT be helped…. However we can always hope for a MEANingful recovery, arh,arh..
ncscoots, well, the BBWAA did give Jimmy Rollins the MVP award in 2007, for example, when he was probably wasn’t one of the 2-4 most valuable players on the Phillies. They refuse to vote Tim Raines into the Hall. Can you blame anyone for being critical of the BBWAA?
doesn’t bother me. I just don’t see the point. Doesn’t really tell anybody much of anything.
“Fighting the good fight”, right Shaun? So it wouldn’t make you even the least bit happy if Heyward was hitting .350/.470/.660 over his last 9 games? I mean, that would tell you something right? It would explain this bizarre feeling in your brain and gut…..happiness.
Trends Shaun – That’s what the stats from the last nine represent. Doesn’t mean that someone can’t go on a tear that’s been cold or someone who’s been hot can’t start a slump.
Never have been able to understand how someone like you who places so much emphasis on stats and yet can disregard them so much at the same time. Maybe it’s time you realized that past performances DO have meaning and that potential only takes you as far as what you do with it. Players aren’t limited to what they’ve done, but they sure can be judged by it.
phil, hmm…the evidence suggest that Prado hasn’t helped the Braves win much more than Heyward. Can you use your superior knowledge to refute what actually has happened so far this season? Please, I need an explanation. You say “clearly” so I know you can explain it to me “clearly.”
phil, I don’t really see enough information in batting average or RBI to make a judgement on a player. Batting average doesn’t take walks or total bases into account. RBI are highly dependent on opportunity and context. What are you seeing that I’m missing? Please explain “clearly” since it’s so clear.
phil -Yep, pretty good, actually. We lost power for 27 hours, but still had water and were prepared for worse. NO damage to the house or yard. Unfortunately many in Vermont are unable to say the same. The state got hit really hard – especially in the river valleys through the state and on the VT/NH border – the Connecticut River flooded really badly. Lots of people unable to leave their homes because of washed out roads that may take a month or more to repair.
cricket, hmm…I don’t see anywhere in that post that Posnanski suggests WPA is the “supreme stat.” Maybe you can fill us in on where he says or suggests that it is.
As a matter of fact, Posnanski does a really good job describing what WPA is. Maybe you didn’t really read the entire post.
Ok, I don’t know why but I’m breaking my Shaun-fast to explain my comment to you. I already regret this post.
I did read the complete post. I only comment seriously on things I think I understand and still have an open mind to learn more when something else on a said matter is pointed out by someone else. Also, I was aware of WAP before reading that article.
I am a big fan of Poz’s work, been reading for many years. I did not say that Poz implied that WPA was a supreme stat. I do not think it is supreme stat, as a matter of fact I have not formed any opinion on it whatsoever. I just wrote that harmless and very mildly funny line in the current spirit of discussion going on the blog.
In my pre-Shaun-nirvana days I might have considered making some unkind remark about your amazing lack of comprehension coupled very strong reading ability but I will not do that. Peace. Peace. Peace. Peace.
Ok, gotta take a shower and start my Shaun-fast anew.
Can you blame anyone for being critical of the BBWAA?
What I can blame, is rude and impolite characterizations made without basis, masquerading as “criticism”. Real truth-seekers, actual inquiring minds, would spit on such behavior. You do not, and you are marked by your actions.
Efrim – Can’t you understand the meaning of “small sample size”/? And after Shaun has explained it to us sooooo many times? What’s wrong with you man? This is no place for fun observations, much less frivilous comments. Posting to this the blog is SERIOUS STUFF. Don’t come back until you understand that!
August 30th, 2011
3:49 pm
phil, I don’t really see enough information in batting average or RBI to make a judgement on a player. Batting average doesn’t take walks or total bases into account. RBI are highly dependent on opportunity and context. What are you seeing that I’m missing? Please explain “clearly” since it’s so clear.
*****************
To be clear, Shaun, you’re an idiot. Or “and” idiot as I sometimes see it here.
I have watched about 95% of all of the Braves games this season, and I will have to say, that Prado has helped the Braves win, many more games than Haywood has.
It is not even a close contest.
SoWeGa Fanatic, BABIP is useful. It can tell us if pitchers are giving up an unusual amount of seeing-eye singles. If so, he’s probably not pitching as badly as a lot of his basic stats seem to indicate; stats like ERA, hits allowed, baserunners allowed, etc. Obviously that’s useful in that it gives us some insight into which pitchers are probably pitching better than their basic stats seem to indicate.
Unless you think all hits are equal and that a pitcher can control when every batted ball is going to be an out instead of a hit. Those of you who don’t see the value of looking at BABIP would support this idea.
Efrim – Actually, even I agree that RBI are dependent on opportunity and context, but I still hope all the Braves’ players have many of them on an annual basis.
Lew – I’m glad to hear you’re well but am sorry to hear the rest. I knew it was bad thanks to our good friends at the Weather Channel, and the “covered bridge lady” from last night, but your post from the front, so to speak, makes it that much more real. Sorry about it all and here’s to a somewhat quick recovery.
Posting to this the blog is SERIOUS STUFF. Don’t come back until you understand that!
Each morning, some AJC intern prints out the comments section of every blog. Folds the paper up. Ties the paper on the back of a pigeon. The pigeon flys to NASA. The data from the comments are analyzed.
There is a time lapse, so they probably just got Shaun’s comments about how playing the hot hand is wrong. After they read that? Mars, b!tches.
Havn’t read comments on the blog the past month. I see Shaun is still trying to prove Heyward is doing a good job. Glad I didnt miss anything. See you all in a month.
Prado and Heyward have the exact same wOBA and the exact same wRC+. Perhaps someone can use their superior knowledge and tell us why this fact should be ignored.
Prado and Heyward have the exact same wOBA and the exact same wRC+
A mighty star has burned out. A giant has fallen. Heyward’s production is now only to match the production of bench-player-turned-starter Martin Prado. I always thought more would come from an elite walker.
I had sworn off of reading and responding to Shaun, but got sucked back into the vortex today. I deeply regret this, as trying to converse with Shaun, in fact, “has no meaning”. It’s my fault, not his. He can’t help it. I should be able to ignore it, but it’s like driving past a wreck, and looking for blood…
or going to the old “freak show” they used to have a t the state fair. I just can’t help it.
“Why would anyone want Melky Cabrera back on the Braves team?”
Hate to see the ensuing fight over who gets the first serving of baseball bat between Biff and Bad Routes. I asked for Byrd first but this guy only heard Melky
Both sides are right…Heyward is having a”lost year”, for whatever reason (which we can debate). I believe he will also have a big comeback next year, and will have a long and sucessful career. I cannot prove that with stats, just a feeling/observation.
TennesseePaul, oh, so you agree that Heyward and Prado have been equals at the plate this season?
I can’t speak to all the pomp and circumstance of “a might star burning out” or “a giant has fallen.” I’m just wondering why Heyward’s is a “lost season” and Prado’s isn’t.
Look, Shaun may not have the best people skills on here. But I think many of you are so irritated with him that you choose to ignore the often important info he’s giving you.
Batting avg and rBI’s are probably the 2 worst ways to judge a batters individual performance.
bABIP is useful in determining whether or not a players present performance is sutainable and if they are getting unlucky relative to their career avg.
Fielding independent pitching shoul generally lie around 10-20% of a pitchers ERA if there is a gap expect a correction depending on the severity of the gap.
Heyward needs to play because he won’t improve sitting on the bench. It’s really as simple as that. I know that in this day and age many people don’t have patience anymore and expect everyone to be Pujols or get fired. But when you have 21 yr old talent that good, you let the player play. He can’t go to AAA cuz their season is about over. Besides, I’m not sure that would do much for him. He needs to play , at least against RH pitching. Constanza is a AAAA player whose little hot streak is coming to an end and whose usefullness is pretty much as a 4th OF’er.
Oh and , btw, I thought I’d do a little bubble breaking. You know how everyone seems to be under the delusion that the Braves have won with “small ball” and it’s all due to Bourn and Constanza? it’s not true, since the trade deadline the Braves are in the top 3 in HR’s. They have been hitting the long ball. The biggest impact for Bourn has been that he has gotten on base SOOO much more than Schafer has. Meaning that less of our homers have been solo shots. Constanza has never taken very many walks and since his little slappers are starting to get hit at people, IMO the most he needs to play is against lefties.
It’s not a matter of your eyes deceiving you. It’s a matter of selective memories. Heyward could go 3-4 tonite and everyone would whine that it was an aberration. But if Constanza goes 0-4 you would say the same thing. It’s like many on here WANT Heyward to fail!! It’s like some jealous projection of their own internal misgivings…. That’s ridiculous
You know, if a lot of you folks had ownership shares in the Braves conglomerate, I’d understand the seriousness and depth of feelings exhibited on here from time-to-time.
No such thing, really. Walks are a passive offensive event, only marginally better than an out. It would be just as accurate to call someone an “elite HBP-er”.
Thanks Nick B – Always a shortage of Professors to teach us poor delusional bloggers who can’t understand what’s shoved in our faces. Shaun’s preaching wasn’t enough. Now we have you, too.
No. they want Shaun to have to eat all the words expended in the public display of bromance for the guy. Heyward himself just happens to be in the bomb-blast radius.
August 30th, 2011
4:09 pm
This blog seems to have been invaded by people who do not have anything constructive to say.
****************
While this is often true, where is your most recent constructive offering for our perusal?
NickB, basically I think you’re right. I think people are frustrated more that Heyward hasn’t performed to expectations and they are paying too much attention to batting average more than it is Heyward’s actual performance. If it was about actual performance, they would be pining for a Prado/Constanza platoon when Chipper is in the lineup; by the way, I think that would be a bad idea too because Prado is the better player. It’s basically about comparing a player to his hype instead of strictly looking at performance and an ignorance of how useful batting average is to judging a hitter.
Putting some value on a hitter getting a walk is kinda like saying that a pitcher has a great pick-off move. What’s the point?
If you found a pitcher that picked of 20% of runners that reached base, there’d be a huge effect. Difference is that even the best pitchers pick off runners at a much lower rate than the best hitters take walks.
ncscoots, don’t know about that. Certain hitters clearly have a knack for drawing walks (and also getting HBP) more so than other hitters. And a walk is no more marginally better than an out than a single in most cases. So we should definitely assign walks a value. Not as much value as a single, I’ll grant you, but walks have value and drawing walks is an ability certain hitters posses that is superior to other hitters.
Am I the only one thats still a little worried about getting IN to the playoffs? It seems to be a lock, but one bad week could make this race tight again….Lets not get complacent.
August 30th, 2011
4:29 pm
Am I the only one thats still a little worried about getting IN to the playoffs? It seems to be a lock, but one bad week could make this race tight again….Lets not get complacent.
********************
No. I’m right there with you. And very concerned about what happens then, if we make it, as we should.
The mythology of small ball has always interested me. I used to be a believer in it too! My dad (a Braves fan too) used to preach the nature of the late 70’s and 80’s Cardinals offense. But as I got older and learned about the game more and what actually leads to run creation, I realized that it truly is : Get on Base and Hit Extra Base Hits. Those Cards teams he wanted to emulate so much did both of those things in spades. Did they steal a ton of bases? Yes. Did they bunt a lot ? Yes But they were bunting for base hits as much as wasting outs via the sacrifice . (which generally is a waste of an out unless it’s the pitcher batting or you are tied or down by a run in the bottom of a deciding inning at home). Playing for one run at a time usually leads to losing. let me explain further.
We can all agree that the best scenario to start an inning is to get the lead off man on Right? Well the numbers show that he has a better chance of scoring from 1st with one out than scoring from 2nd with one out. (it’s almost the same but a slight edge to the former) but now the team has one less out to work with. So, it’s best to allow the batter to swing away (or, if the baserunner is a good stealer, to turn him loose)
Now,in an average game you prolly will get the leadoff man on base 4 or 5 times at most. If you played for the one run by sacrificing him to 2nd it leaves 2 outs. Now one of the two remaining batters must get a hit to the OF anyway for him to score (barring wild pitches and the like). Even if you pull this off 75% of the time your team will only score around 3 runs a game…. That’s not going to win very often.
Teams needs baserunners, they need extra base hits. They need gappers and homers and crooked letter innings. You have big innings, you win ball games.
NickB – I’m just thinking that “small ball” is an additional sure weapon we have at our disposal to add to the good bomb hitting and good pitching. We have that weapon now. Also concur that it looks like Bourne and Constanza have been on more ’cause they really have. Also right that you could’t call Schafer a “frequent” visitor to the bases makes them look even better.
Although you didn’t burst my bubble, my selective memory will come in handy to forget that psychobabble last graph. Some really good points overall, but I think we can ignore good points from Shaun if we want to.
It’s a blog, that’s what we do. Deal with it. Shaun can take it.
ncscoots, I can think of others: A slow runner on first that isn’t going to reach third on a single, a walk is as good as a single. A rather slow runner on third and a bunt single, a walk is just as good.
Still waiting on someone to take me up on this: Prado and Heyward have the exact same wOBA and the exact same wRC+. Perhaps someone can use their superior knowledge and tell us why this fact should be ignored.
Seems nobody wants to touch that. Guess it doesn’t do enough to confirm biases.
1,671 comments Add your comment
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
3:40 pm
Props to csg for that link. I’m particularly intrigued by a single sentence:
“It is the time of the year that we realize that the ballots of most baseball scribes make absolutely no logical sense. It is the time of year when a (particularly ossified) cadre of scribes become intellectual contortionists as they attempt to justify their decisions not to vote for the clearly most deserving player.”
Now, this guy is firmly tongue-in-cheek with this article. However, I begin to see a faint glimmer of the origins of “ignorant BBWAA geezers”. And because that is important, meaningful stuff, I thought I should give you folks a heads-up.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
3:40 pm
Tommy T, hmm…I don’t see where your 3:26 post helps me to see that Prado’s season is any less of a “lost” season than Heyward’s. Apparently there are a lot smart enough to know that it is but they refuse to explain. Oh, please, share your superior knowledge to the rest of us.
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
3:41 pm
Don’t you dare post anything that doesn’t have meaning. Don’t you dare…..
CrαZy
August 30th, 2011
3:41 pm
Shaun’s so cool he gets his own theme song!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYws8biwOYc
phil
August 30th, 2011
3:42 pm
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
3:35 pm
phil, so does that mean Prado’s season is a “lost” one? Seriously, I don’t get it. Perhaps you can use your superior knowledge to explain.
*****************
His season is far from lost. It’s down from last year, clearly, but he has helped the team win on a somewhat consistent basis, unlike your man crush buddy who sometimes plays right field.
You won’t hear me claiming to have superior knowledge on much of anything. Way too many very smart people post here but regrettably, one of them isn’t you.
Tommy T
August 30th, 2011
3:42 pm
Shaun @ 3:40
Wow, you really missed the boat on that one. Try again. Keep trying until you get it. It will probably take you a while, but I got faith in ya!!!
alex
August 30th, 2011
3:43 pm
@ phil, I stayed at a Holiday express inn last night and I know that there is a 100% chance that shaun can NOT be helped…. However we can always hope for a MEANingful recovery, arh,arh..
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
3:43 pm
cricket, thanks for that link. Always get a kick out of reading Poz
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
3:44 pm
ncscoots, well, the BBWAA did give Jimmy Rollins the MVP award in 2007, for example, when he was probably wasn’t one of the 2-4 most valuable players on the Phillies. They refuse to vote Tim Raines into the Hall. Can you blame anyone for being critical of the BBWAA?
daniel-buck
August 30th, 2011
3:44 pm
Ok one more day of waver wire trades… Do we try to get a Marlon Byrd or Melky for Bench help or do we stand put
Master Baiter
August 30th, 2011
3:44 pm
Jason Heyward’s batting average is .204 since the Allstar break. And only 14 RBI in his last 32 games.
phil
August 30th, 2011
3:44 pm
Did I not see Lew on the previous page of Shaun rants?
Lew, come out ok with Irene?
raleighbravefan
August 30th, 2011
3:44 pm
phil@3:38 – Thanks
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
3:45 pm
doesn’t bother me. I just don’t see the point. Doesn’t really tell anybody much of anything.
“Fighting the good fight”, right Shaun? So it wouldn’t make you even the least bit happy if Heyward was hitting .350/.470/.660 over his last 9 games? I mean, that would tell you something right? It would explain this bizarre feeling in your brain and gut…..happiness.
Jimmy
August 30th, 2011
3:45 pm
Anyone seen Murph?
Heisenberg
August 30th, 2011
3:46 pm
This all just sounds like arguing for the sake of arguing. What are my kids doing on this blog? School does not let out for another 30 minutes.
phil
August 30th, 2011
3:46 pm
I think a .204 average and 14 rbis since the break qualifies as a fine effort.
Shaun
Lew
August 30th, 2011
3:46 pm
Trends Shaun – That’s what the stats from the last nine represent. Doesn’t mean that someone can’t go on a tear that’s been cold or someone who’s been hot can’t start a slump.
Never have been able to understand how someone like you who places so much emphasis on stats and yet can disregard them so much at the same time. Maybe it’s time you realized that past performances DO have meaning and that potential only takes you as far as what you do with it. Players aren’t limited to what they’ve done, but they sure can be judged by it.
reckingball
August 30th, 2011
3:47 pm
Why would anyone want Melky Cabrera back on the Braves team?
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
3:47 pm
phil, hmm…the evidence suggest that Prado hasn’t helped the Braves win much more than Heyward. Can you use your superior knowledge to refute what actually has happened so far this season? Please, I need an explanation. You say “clearly” so I know you can explain it to me “clearly.”
Patrick
August 30th, 2011
3:47 pm
DOB,
Any chance the Braves go get a right handed pinch hitter not named Wes Helms by tomorrow’s deadline?
CrαZy
August 30th, 2011
3:47 pm
Anyone seen Murph?
Deer hunting!!
SoWeGa Fanatic
August 30th, 2011
3:48 pm
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
3:24 pm
noliee, just odd to post something that has no meaning whatsoever.
Wow.
*******************************
Forgive him, he means like BABIP, which has contributed so much to world peace.
Bryn
August 30th, 2011
3:48 pm
Or on entering a building, taking 20 seconds to locate the nearest restroom.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
3:49 pm
phil, I don’t really see enough information in batting average or RBI to make a judgement on a player. Batting average doesn’t take walks or total bases into account. RBI are highly dependent on opportunity and context. What are you seeing that I’m missing? Please explain “clearly” since it’s so clear.
phil
August 30th, 2011
3:50 pm
Shaun – go back and watch tape of all the games up until now. there’s your proof. It should only take you a week or so. now get going.
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
3:50 pm
if Heyward’s having a lost season, how do you describe Prado’s season?
How do I describe Prado’s season? “Off”
Lew
August 30th, 2011
3:50 pm
phil -Yep, pretty good, actually. We lost power for 27 hours, but still had water and were prepared for worse. NO damage to the house or yard. Unfortunately many in Vermont are unable to say the same. The state got hit really hard – especially in the river valleys through the state and on the VT/NH border – the Connecticut River flooded really badly. Lots of people unable to leave their homes because of washed out roads that may take a month or more to repair.
cricket
August 30th, 2011
3:51 pm
cricket, hmm…I don’t see anywhere in that post that Posnanski suggests WPA is the “supreme stat.” Maybe you can fill us in on where he says or suggests that it is.
As a matter of fact, Posnanski does a really good job describing what WPA is. Maybe you didn’t really read the entire post.
Ok, I don’t know why but I’m breaking my Shaun-fast to explain my comment to you. I already regret this post.
I did read the complete post. I only comment seriously on things I think I understand and still have an open mind to learn more when something else on a said matter is pointed out by someone else. Also, I was aware of WAP before reading that article.
I am a big fan of Poz’s work, been reading for many years. I did not say that Poz implied that WPA was a supreme stat. I do not think it is supreme stat, as a matter of fact I have not formed any opinion on it whatsoever. I just wrote that harmless and very mildly funny line in the current spirit of discussion going on the blog.
In my pre-Shaun-nirvana days I might have considered making some unkind remark about your amazing lack of comprehension coupled very strong reading ability but I will not do that. Peace. Peace. Peace. Peace.
Ok, gotta take a shower and start my Shaun-fast anew.
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
3:51 pm
Can you blame anyone for being critical of the BBWAA?
What I can blame, is rude and impolite characterizations made without basis, masquerading as “criticism”. Real truth-seekers, actual inquiring minds, would spit on such behavior. You do not, and you are marked by your actions.
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
3:51 pm
RBI are highly dependent on opportunity and context.
This can’t be true.
raleighbravefan
August 30th, 2011
3:52 pm
Efrim – Can’t you understand the meaning of “small sample size”/? And after Shaun has explained it to us sooooo many times? What’s wrong with you man? This is no place for fun observations, much less frivilous comments. Posting to this the blog is SERIOUS STUFF. Don’t come back until you understand that!
unbelievable
August 30th, 2011
3:52 pm
Have we received any update on Hanson’s meeting with Dr Andrews?
phil
August 30th, 2011
3:52 pm
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
3:49 pm
phil, I don’t really see enough information in batting average or RBI to make a judgement on a player. Batting average doesn’t take walks or total bases into account. RBI are highly dependent on opportunity and context. What are you seeing that I’m missing? Please explain “clearly” since it’s so clear.
*****************
To be clear, Shaun, you’re an idiot. Or “and” idiot as I sometimes see it here.
And you can’t spell judgment, apparently.
reckingball
August 30th, 2011
3:53 pm
I have watched about 95% of all of the Braves games this season, and I will have to say, that Prado has helped the Braves win, many more games than Haywood has.
It is not even a close contest.
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
3:53 pm
So it wouldn’t make you even the least bit happy if Heyward was hitting .350/.470/.660 over his last 9 games
This does play a part in it. It’s hard to be happy when your man-crush is fixated on a guy hitting worse than Seabass over his last nine.
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
3:53 pm
In the last 365 days, Jason Heyward has hit .233/.335/.391 in 511 plate appearances.
fuzzmeister
August 30th, 2011
3:54 pm
What does meaningful mean?
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
3:55 pm
This does play a part in it. It’s hard to be happy when your man-crush is fixated on a guy hitting worse than Seabass over his last nine.
But if he even thought about it for a half second, that should mean your post had “meaning”, no?
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
3:55 pm
SoWeGa Fanatic, BABIP is useful. It can tell us if pitchers are giving up an unusual amount of seeing-eye singles. If so, he’s probably not pitching as badly as a lot of his basic stats seem to indicate; stats like ERA, hits allowed, baserunners allowed, etc. Obviously that’s useful in that it gives us some insight into which pitchers are probably pitching better than their basic stats seem to indicate.
Unless you think all hits are equal and that a pitcher can control when every batted ball is going to be an out instead of a hit. Those of you who don’t see the value of looking at BABIP would support this idea.
phil
August 30th, 2011
3:55 pm
Efrim – Those stats you posted @ 3:53 have no meaning. This is baseball.
Lew
August 30th, 2011
3:55 pm
Efrim – Actually, even I agree that RBI are dependent on opportunity and context, but I still hope all the Braves’ players have many of them on an annual basis.
Jimmy
August 30th, 2011
3:55 pm
That is not Shaun. I’m sure of that. That’s why I asked about Murph.
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
3:56 pm
So it wouldn’t make you even the least bit happy if Heyward was hitting .350/.470/.660 over his last 9 games
mutha-bleepin make me happy, by God.
phil
August 30th, 2011
3:57 pm
Lew – I’m glad to hear you’re well but am sorry to hear the rest. I knew it was bad thanks to our good friends at the Weather Channel, and the “covered bridge lady” from last night, but your post from the front, so to speak, makes it that much more real. Sorry about it all and here’s to a somewhat quick recovery.
cricket
August 30th, 2011
3:57 pm
10110111100000110101000101000011110000101010
00010010000111110010010011000110001011000111
Jimmy
August 30th, 2011
3:58 pm
OK…too much of this Shaun-a-thon (or whoever it is) for me. I’ll check in around gametime.
AND FIRE FREDI!!!
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
3:58 pm
Posting to this the blog is SERIOUS STUFF. Don’t come back until you understand that!
Each morning, some AJC intern prints out the comments section of every blog. Folds the paper up. Ties the paper on the back of a pigeon. The pigeon flys to NASA. The data from the comments are analyzed.
There is a time lapse, so they probably just got Shaun’s comments about how playing the hot hand is wrong. After they read that? Mars, b!tches.
Eric from MO
August 30th, 2011
4:00 pm
Havn’t read comments on the blog the past month. I see Shaun is still trying to prove Heyward is doing a good job. Glad I didnt miss anything. See you all in a month.
Master Baiter
August 30th, 2011
4:00 pm
Walks are highly dependent upon the pitcher’s ability to throw a strike.
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
4:00 pm
Efrim, I already know he did, he even quoted part of it. : )
phil
August 30th, 2011
4:02 pm
And strikes are highly dependent on greedy football owners and players….
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
4:02 pm
Prado and Heyward have the exact same wOBA and the exact same wRC+. Perhaps someone can use their superior knowledge and tell us why this fact should be ignored.
cricket
August 30th, 2011
4:02 pm
Walks are highly dependent upon the pitcher’s ability to throw a strike.
or ball
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
4:03 pm
Oh and Efrim, “over his last 9 games“… it’s “Last 9 starts of the starting 9″ not “Last 9 games of the gaming 9″
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
4:03 pm
Eric from MO, really? where did I say Heyward is doing a “good job”? I’d like to see that.
daniel-buck
August 30th, 2011
4:05 pm
reckingball,
Why would anyone want Melky Cabrera back on the Braves team?
BA HR RBI OBP Slg
.304 17 77 .338 .475 Sounds better than what Heyward could do coming off the bench
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
4:05 pm
Oh and Efrim, “over his last 9 games“… it’s “Last 9 starts of the starting 9″ not “Last 9 games of the gaming 9″
Ah, I see…
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
4:05 pm
Prado and Heyward have the exact same wOBA and the exact same wRC+
A mighty star has burned out. A giant has fallen. Heyward’s production is now only to match the production of bench-player-turned-starter Martin Prado. I always thought more would come from an elite walker.
raleighbravefan
August 30th, 2011
4:07 pm
I had sworn off of reading and responding to Shaun, but got sucked back into the vortex today. I deeply regret this, as trying to converse with Shaun, in fact, “has no meaning”. It’s my fault, not his. He can’t help it. I should be able to ignore it, but it’s like driving past a wreck, and looking for blood…
or going to the old “freak show” they used to have a t the state fair. I just can’t help it.
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
4:08 pm
“Why would anyone want Melky Cabrera back on the Braves team?”
Hate to see the ensuing fight over who gets the first serving of baseball bat between Biff and Bad Routes.
Stinger2
August 30th, 2011
4:09 pm
This blog seems to have been invaded by people who do not have anything constructive to say.
Choppinmama
August 30th, 2011
4:10 pm
….getting weaker………vision blurry……
…………..must have…….Braves…………baseball……..
………………………………s…o…o…n……
daniel-buck
August 30th, 2011
4:11 pm
TennesseePaul
“Why would anyone want Melky Cabrera back on the Braves team?”
Hate to see the ensuing fight over who gets the first serving of baseball bat between Biff and Bad Routes. I asked for Byrd first but this guy only heard Melky
Master Baiter
August 30th, 2011
4:12 pm
TenPaul @ 4:05
Sad, but true.
JRW
August 30th, 2011
4:12 pm
Had to go back quite a ways to get Heyward’s last nine starts.
monty
August 30th, 2011
4:12 pm
My nIghtmare image is Melky at the plate for us in the playoffs with 2 out in the 9th inning and tying run at 3rd and losing means we’re eliminated.
raleighbravefan
August 30th, 2011
4:13 pm
Both sides are right…Heyward is having a”lost year”, for whatever reason (which we can debate). I believe he will also have a big comeback next year, and will have a long and sucessful career. I cannot prove that with stats, just a feeling/observation.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
4:13 pm
TennesseePaul, oh, so you agree that Heyward and Prado have been equals at the plate this season?
I can’t speak to all the pomp and circumstance of “a might star burning out” or “a giant has fallen.” I’m just wondering why Heyward’s is a “lost season” and Prado’s isn’t.
NickB
August 30th, 2011
4:13 pm
Look, Shaun may not have the best people skills on here. But I think many of you are so irritated with him that you choose to ignore the often important info he’s giving you.
Batting avg and rBI’s are probably the 2 worst ways to judge a batters individual performance.
bABIP is useful in determining whether or not a players present performance is sutainable and if they are getting unlucky relative to their career avg.
Fielding independent pitching shoul generally lie around 10-20% of a pitchers ERA if there is a gap expect a correction depending on the severity of the gap.
Heyward needs to play because he won’t improve sitting on the bench. It’s really as simple as that. I know that in this day and age many people don’t have patience anymore and expect everyone to be Pujols or get fired. But when you have 21 yr old talent that good, you let the player play. He can’t go to AAA cuz their season is about over. Besides, I’m not sure that would do much for him. He needs to play , at least against RH pitching. Constanza is a AAAA player whose little hot streak is coming to an end and whose usefullness is pretty much as a 4th OF’er.
Oh and , btw, I thought I’d do a little bubble breaking. You know how everyone seems to be under the delusion that the Braves have won with “small ball” and it’s all due to Bourn and Constanza? it’s not true, since the trade deadline the Braves are in the top 3 in HR’s. They have been hitting the long ball. The biggest impact for Bourn has been that he has gotten on base SOOO much more than Schafer has. Meaning that less of our homers have been solo shots. Constanza has never taken very many walks and since his little slappers are starting to get hit at people, IMO the most he needs to play is against lefties.
It’s not a matter of your eyes deceiving you. It’s a matter of selective memories. Heyward could go 3-4 tonite and everyone would whine that it was an aberration. But if Constanza goes 0-4 you would say the same thing. It’s like many on here WANT Heyward to fail!! It’s like some jealous projection of their own internal misgivings…. That’s ridiculous
cricket
August 30th, 2011
4:14 pm
This blog seems to have been invaded by people who do not have anything constructive to say.
welcome to the show, this was a mighty fine start
Choppinmama
August 30th, 2011
4:15 pm
You know, if a lot of you folks had ownership shares in the Braves conglomerate, I’d understand the seriousness and depth of feelings exhibited on here from time-to-time.
But…….really…..
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
4:16 pm
an elite walker.
No such thing, really. Walks are a passive offensive event, only marginally better than an out. It would be just as accurate to call someone an “elite HBP-er”.
Lew
August 30th, 2011
4:16 pm
Thanks Nick B – Always a shortage of Professors to teach us poor delusional bloggers who can’t understand what’s shoved in our faces. Shaun’s preaching wasn’t enough. Now we have you, too.
Oh. The Joy of it All.
cricket
August 30th, 2011
4:18 pm
Come on everyone, say it together – Hello Substitute Teacher
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
4:19 pm
It’s like many on here WANT Heyward to fail!!
No. they want Shaun to have to eat all the words expended in the public display of bromance for the guy. Heyward himself just happens to be in the bomb-blast radius.
phil
August 30th, 2011
4:20 pm
Stinger2
August 30th, 2011
4:09 pm
This blog seems to have been invaded by people who do not have anything constructive to say.
****************
While this is often true, where is your most recent constructive offering for our perusal?
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
4:20 pm
NickB, basically I think you’re right. I think people are frustrated more that Heyward hasn’t performed to expectations and they are paying too much attention to batting average more than it is Heyward’s actual performance. If it was about actual performance, they would be pining for a Prado/Constanza platoon when Chipper is in the lineup; by the way, I think that would be a bad idea too because Prado is the better player. It’s basically about comparing a player to his hype instead of strictly looking at performance and an ignorance of how useful batting average is to judging a hitter.
Master Baiter
August 30th, 2011
4:21 pm
ncscoots @ 4:16 – I agree.
Putting some value on a hitter getting a walk is kinda like saying that a pitcher has a great pick-off move. What’s the point?
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
4:21 pm
Nothing wrong with NickB. Makes solid posts and keeps his wits.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 30th, 2011
4:22 pm
10Paul It’s hard to be happy when your man-crush is fixated on a guy hitting worse than Seabass over his last nine.
I thought Alex was .133 and Heyward was .188…that’s 55 points better!!
(Hey, I cann say that…BMac’s batting .188 over his last nine starts, too…)
NickB
August 30th, 2011
4:23 pm
@ ncscoots
hey thanx!
AZBravoFan
August 30th, 2011
4:24 pm
“a strike zone as big as your mind….” kind of appropriate with Livan pitching today don’t you think?
CrαZy
August 30th, 2011
4:26 pm
Blog Rule #23:
Any post longer than 2 lines posted by a regular douche nozzle is to be skipped over.
RC
August 30th, 2011
4:26 pm
ncscoots @ 4:16 – I agree.
Putting some value on a hitter getting a walk is kinda like saying that a pitcher has a great pick-off move. What’s the point?
If you found a pitcher that picked of 20% of runners that reached base, there’d be a huge effect. Difference is that even the best pitchers pick off runners at a much lower rate than the best hitters take walks.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
4:27 pm
ncscoots, don’t know about that. Certain hitters clearly have a knack for drawing walks (and also getting HBP) more so than other hitters. And a walk is no more marginally better than an out than a single in most cases. So we should definitely assign walks a value. Not as much value as a single, I’ll grant you, but walks have value and drawing walks is an ability certain hitters posses that is superior to other hitters.
RC
August 30th, 2011
4:29 pm
Craig Biggio was an elite HBPer. Carlos Quentin too.
CrαZy
August 30th, 2011
4:29 pm
You shouldn’t read past Sha (in Shaun) before your finger starts to turn the scroll wheel!!
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
4:29 pm
And a walk is no more marginally better than an out than a single in most cases.
One case, and one case only, is a walk equal to a single: nobody on.
Dennis Reynolds
August 30th, 2011
4:29 pm
Am I the only one thats still a little worried about getting IN to the playoffs? It seems to be a lock, but one bad week could make this race tight again….Lets not get complacent.
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
4:30 pm
McFann, ha! nice. I was referencing OPS though. But that’s a positive spin on the matter. I like it.
bfred
August 30th, 2011
4:30 pm
Carroll, on your minor league update yesterday…Wes Helms???? You’re messing with us, right?
Anyway, pretty funny to see us so stocked at 1B (and I don’t mean Wes) after all those years in the wilderness.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 30th, 2011
4:31 pm
10Paul—
Well, glad you like it, anyway…
phil
August 30th, 2011
4:31 pm
None better at getting HBP than Don Baylor….
But he stunk because his BABIP and H2Opythagoreum**%% weren’t very good….
phil
August 30th, 2011
4:32 pm
Dennis Reynolds
August 30th, 2011
4:29 pm
Am I the only one thats still a little worried about getting IN to the playoffs? It seems to be a lock, but one bad week could make this race tight again….Lets not get complacent.
********************
No. I’m right there with you. And very concerned about what happens then, if we make it, as we should.
Slowhiteguy
August 30th, 2011
4:32 pm
I think most scouts would agree with NickB and Shaun.
NickB
August 30th, 2011
4:33 pm
The mythology of small ball has always interested me. I used to be a believer in it too! My dad (a Braves fan too) used to preach the nature of the late 70’s and 80’s Cardinals offense. But as I got older and learned about the game more and what actually leads to run creation, I realized that it truly is : Get on Base and Hit Extra Base Hits. Those Cards teams he wanted to emulate so much did both of those things in spades. Did they steal a ton of bases? Yes. Did they bunt a lot ? Yes But they were bunting for base hits as much as wasting outs via the sacrifice . (which generally is a waste of an out unless it’s the pitcher batting or you are tied or down by a run in the bottom of a deciding inning at home). Playing for one run at a time usually leads to losing. let me explain further.
We can all agree that the best scenario to start an inning is to get the lead off man on Right? Well the numbers show that he has a better chance of scoring from 1st with one out than scoring from 2nd with one out. (it’s almost the same but a slight edge to the former) but now the team has one less out to work with. So, it’s best to allow the batter to swing away (or, if the baserunner is a good stealer, to turn him loose)
Now,in an average game you prolly will get the leadoff man on base 4 or 5 times at most. If you played for the one run by sacrificing him to 2nd it leaves 2 outs. Now one of the two remaining batters must get a hit to the OF anyway for him to score (barring wild pitches and the like). Even if you pull this off 75% of the time your team will only score around 3 runs a game…. That’s not going to win very often.
Teams needs baserunners, they need extra base hits. They need gappers and homers and crooked letter innings. You have big innings, you win ball games.
Choppinmama
August 30th, 2011
4:34 pm
NickB – I’m just thinking that “small ball” is an additional sure weapon we have at our disposal to add to the good bomb hitting and good pitching. We have that weapon now. Also concur that it looks like Bourne and Constanza have been on more ’cause they really have. Also right that you could’t call Schafer a “frequent” visitor to the bases makes them look even better.
Although you didn’t burst my bubble, my selective memory will come in handy to forget that psychobabble last graph. Some really good points overall, but I think we can ignore good points from Shaun if we want to.
It’s a blog, that’s what we do. Deal with it. Shaun can take it.
(ok, I’ll change my name to Pollyanna next post)
NickB
August 30th, 2011
4:34 pm
“1st with no outs than 2nd with one out above,” my bad typo
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
4:35 pm
ncscoots, I can think of others: A slow runner on first that isn’t going to reach third on a single, a walk is as good as a single. A rather slow runner on third and a bunt single, a walk is just as good.
Still waiting on someone to take me up on this: Prado and Heyward have the exact same wOBA and the exact same wRC+. Perhaps someone can use their superior knowledge and tell us why this fact should be ignored.
Seems nobody wants to touch that. Guess it doesn’t do enough to confirm biases.