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Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
1,671 comments Add your comment
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
3:16 pm
Yep. Until Bourn came along, the Braves outfield as a whole was pretty lackluster. Centerfield was actually worse than lackluster and now that position has the player who has performed the best in 2011, amongst all the Braves current outfielders.
MFin04
August 31st, 2011
3:18 pm
Funny, but a lot of us were hoping for Matty D to come back, but didn’t really think it’d happen.
Awesome news. Hopefully he is in the lineup tonight hitting 5th or 6th.
David O'Brien
August 31st, 2011
3:19 pm
Lannan is 5-0 w/ a 3.12 ERA in 6 starts vs. Braves since August 2010, inc. 3-0 w/ a 3.09 ERA in 4 this season.
TennesseePaul
August 31st, 2011
3:19 pm
I thought because the Giants DFA’ed Rowand that we wouldnt have to claim him, just sign him as a free agent.
When a player is DFA’d there is a period of time the initial team has to trade him. It’s 10 days I believe. In that time, if they trade him, the acquiring team takes on the entire contract. If teams wait until after the 10 days, he is released and a team can sign him for a pro-rated portion of the league minimum. However, the issue here is, if a team wants this player for a post-season roster position, he pretty much has to be traded for today to be eligible and if they do that, they take on his salary.
Snotboogie
August 31st, 2011
3:19 pm
JJ in 2009 ERA 2.60 XFIP: 4.28
If it was sustained for 34 starts does it still mean it is unsustainable?
Lpad
August 31st, 2011
3:20 pm
Enter your comments here
Hugo
August 31st, 2011
3:21 pm
Shaun, can’t speak for anybody else, but I’m just sick of your extended explanation of how you feel about Jurrjens. Shut up.
Brian from SC
August 31st, 2011
3:21 pm
Is it possible to get Diaz in there tonight? He hits .400 against Lannan. Braves haven’t won a game Lannan has started in almost 2 years.
Lpad
August 31st, 2011
3:21 pm
Shaun,
Given that JJ’s career ERA is lower than his xFIP and that other pitchers have career ERAs lower than their career xFIP (for example, T. Hudson, J. Cueto, etc.), wouldn’t the fact that his August ERA is higher than his xFIP in August indicate that something is a skew (like he’s been/is not pitching at 100 percent health) and not a true indicator of future performance?
TennesseePaul
August 31st, 2011
3:22 pm
If it was sustained for 34 starts does it still mean it is unsustainable?
Ha! It’s a Cubbie stat… “just wait til next year”
Snotboogie
August 31st, 2011
3:22 pm
Brian from SC
ajcbraves David O’Brien
By the way, Diaz is 12-for-30 against tonight’s #Nationals starter Lannan. Diaz expected to be in uniform tonight, #Braves say.
Lpad
August 31st, 2011
3:23 pm
Snotboogie – It goes a lot further than 2009, JJ’s ERA has been lower than his xFIP for his entire career. And he isn’t the only pitcher with a lower career ERA than xFIP.
Brian from SC
August 31st, 2011
3:23 pm
Thanks, Snot! Terrific!!! Diaz was my favorite Braves player the last several years, and now is again!
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
3:24 pm
Jurrjens…..ERA….Hits/9…….3 or 4……..5………regression……intelligent fans…..not what i said….what i’m saying is……where the ball was hit…….pre/post……had to expect…..blahblahblah.
PS: I’m a f*%$*ing pool of piss.
Arkansas Transplant
August 31st, 2011
3:24 pm
Snotboogie, you might just be on to something.
MFin04
August 31st, 2011
3:25 pm
“By the way, Diaz is 12-for-30 against tonight’s #Nationals starter Lannan. Diaz expected to be in uniform tonight, #Braves say.”
Yeh, not a surprise. Hopefully they got him a private jet and limo service to the stadium. Pencil him in the top 2/3 of the order and watch the boys score some runs.
ncscoots
August 31st, 2011
3:26 pm
It features JJ [as an overperformer].
Unfortunately, Jurrjens does not yet have enough of a track record to know if he is one of those guys who consistently “overperforms”, who have a callous disregard for the “should be”.
Put simply, outperforming your peripherals one year might be a fluke. Do it two years, and it might be coincidence. Do it more than that, and one has to at least consider the possibility that it’s talent at work.
Jurrjens, when healthy, has “overperformed” pretty consistently, so it’s worth considering that he does it on talent. He just doesn’t have enough starts yet to take “consideration” into the realm of “fact”.
flange1
August 31st, 2011
3:26 pm
Using someone else’s blog handle is not cute of funny.
If you have a problem with a poster, use your name and tell him about it.
Don’t be a little girl and hide behind a stolen monkier.
Snotboogie
August 31st, 2011
3:27 pm
This is from scoots’ link on advance pitching metrics:
Sometimes, for whatever reason, a pitcher has the ability to limit home runs. CC Sabathia is a perfect example. For his career, Sabathia has a HR/FB ratio of 8.4%, well below the mean (10.6%), and he has never posted a HR/FB ratio higher than league-average in a single season. Thus, xFIP makes an assumption that quite frankly does not apply to Sabathia and therefore it is not a useful predictor of “true talent” in his case.
JJ’s career HR/FB rate is 7.4%.
Hugo
August 31st, 2011
3:28 pm
TN Paul
i think you’re missing the point…
There’s no way JJ could have continued those numbers forever. Let’s face it. His lifespan is only projected at about 80 years. That’s the league norm. Shaun told me. Plus the sun is probably going to supernova sometime in the next 40 billion years, so even if JJ could somehow overcome his impending death, he would still cease to put up good numbers after the Earth is vaporized. JJ is an average 4 guy, good 5 guy. We were stupid not understand this sooner.
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
3:28 pm
If it was sustained for 34 starts does it still mean it is unsustainable?
Yes. He didn’t sustain a 2.60 ERA significantly beyond 34 starts, did he?
Lpad, xFIP is not a perfect indicator of future performance. Just a better indicator than actual ERA.
For example, he’s closer to 4.18 than 2.96.
MFin04
August 31st, 2011
3:29 pm
“Using someone else’s blog handle is not cute of funny.
If you have a problem with a poster, use your name and tell him about it.
Don’t be a little girl and hide behind a stolen monkier.”
Ok, it was kinda cute and funny. And desperate times sometimes call for desperate measures.
Wasn’t me, but it was humorous.
ncscoots
August 31st, 2011
3:30 pm
Don’t be a little girl and hide behind a stolen monkier.
You do little girls everywhere a disservice, when you lump them in with such a nimrod.
Lew
August 31st, 2011
3:31 pm
Yeah – Pitchers have the ability to limit HRs – Just don’t throw the damned ball down the middle of the freaking plate like Jurrjens did last night.
flange1
August 31st, 2011
3:31 pm
scoots,
Snotboogie
August 31st, 2011
3:31 pm
Plus the sun is probably going to supernova sometime in the next 40 billion years…
I need to rush to Walmart and stock up!
BFChris26
August 31st, 2011
3:31 pm
The Rangers will acquire Mike Gonzalez from the Orioles, according to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun (Twitter links). Baltimore will obtain a player to be named later – likely a pitcher – in the deal. The Orioles have confirmed the move.
Brian from SC
August 31st, 2011
3:32 pm
Yah…today is the “other” trade deadline…so players are moving around a little bit.
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
3:32 pm
ncscoots, I do think Jurrjens is one of those types that is going to outperform a lot of the ERA indicator stats. But that doesn’t mean he’s actually as good as his 2011 ERA indicates.
Hugo
August 31st, 2011
3:32 pm
you also do blog overseers a disservice when you misspell “or” and “moniker”. But I agree with what you were trying to say.
Snotboogie
August 31st, 2011
3:33 pm
scoots @ 3:26
I was just trying to point out that he had possibly “borrowed” the theme from fangraphs.
Hugo
August 31st, 2011
3:34 pm
Snotboogie…
I didn’t mean to cause alarm. That’s just a rough approximation.
raleighbravefan
August 31st, 2011
3:34 pm
All I know is…when he’s healthy, JJ is a damn good #4 pitcher. I predict, reguardless of “peripherals”, that at the end of his career, he will be considered to be better than that.
Of course, in Shaunland, Bourn isn’t very good, and is getting worse.
flange1
August 31st, 2011
3:34 pm
How true Hugo!
Mudge
August 31st, 2011
3:34 pm
Just x-FIPping..but JJ has one of 4.17 (2011) and Lannan, the Brave killer, is 4.25. Not much different. Charlie Morton is better at 3.90. Derek Lowe is 3.62. So, if you are Washington or Pittsburgh do you trade Lannan or Morton for JJ..Shaun would say no..and would say the Braves should make those trades if they could.
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
3:35 pm
Snotboogie, I actually didn’t see that FanGraphs post. Just used last night as an opportunity to remind those who were criticizing me and pointing to Maddux when I brought up that it’s difficult to perform really well in the majors when you’re not missing bats as a pitcher.
Justa thinking
August 31st, 2011
3:35 pm
Shawn a team needs an Ace, 2, 3 4 and 5 in their order. how does it work out with the Phillies having 2 aces no 2″s 2-# 3’s no 4 and a 5. Does their pitching coach stay up nights ?
Mudge
August 31st, 2011
3:35 pm
JJ–Lannan is close..maybe Shaun says no to that.
Brian from SC
August 31st, 2011
3:36 pm
The Braves aren’t in danger of losing their playoff spot, but they needed a little good news. They have won one game over the last week, which isn’t so bad considering they’ve only played 4, but it still seems gloomy. They could use a little momentum heading into next week’s one last try to sweep in Philly and make the division a race.
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
3:36 pm
raleighbravefan, really? I’ve said Bourn isn’t very good and is getting worse? When? I would love to see that.
Murph
August 31st, 2011
3:37 pm
You do little girls everywhere a disservice, when you lump them in with such a nimrod.
If my little girl (the infamous 3 year old) got hold of this individual… well, let’s just say it wouldn’t be pretty.
Monday night I get home to find her standing over the 5 year old, who is laying flat on her back crying, and the 3 year old has her fist extended to within an inch of the 5 year old’s nose. She said something to the effect of “Say it again! I dare you!” but it was hard to hear over the older siblings cries.
The 5 year old shook her head and the 3 year old grabbed her by the foot and began to drag her off into our downstairs guest bedroom, otherwise known as “The Pit of Despair” because it’s always dark and that’s where the 3 year old takes her victims for their beatings.
I stepped in as she was about to close the door and separated the two. The 5 year old went back to her coloring, with no idea how close she came to a certain, painful death.
Little girls indeed.
Hugo
August 31st, 2011
3:37 pm
Cole Hamels used to be the Philly ace, and I haven’t noticed him “regressing” much of late, so you could argue that they have 3.
David O'Brien
August 31st, 2011
3:39 pm
Braves created roster space by placing George Sherrill on DL with left-elbow inflammation
Lew
August 31st, 2011
3:39 pm
Shaun – You said it all day yesterday in every way it could be said – multiple times.
ncscoots
August 31st, 2011
3:39 pm
Plus the sun is probably going to supernova sometime in the next 40 billion years
And I darn well plan to be here for it.
Snotboogie
August 31st, 2011
3:40 pm
Braves created roster space by placing George Sherrill on DL with left-elbow inflammation?
I though Sherill has always looked like he had some inflammation all over his body. I guess they just picked the elbow, this time.
flange1
August 31st, 2011
3:41 pm
One more move for FW.
Upgrade the SS backup with a guy that can play 2B, SS and 3B, hopefully with a decent bat.
Then we can say goodbye to Conrad (back to AAA) and Lugo (DFA) and have a balanced bench.
Lots of versatility when you throw Prado’s ability to move around the field into the mix.
Keep it up FW!
Lew
August 31st, 2011
3:41 pm
scoots -40 billion years from now? How many times will you be getting up each night then?
ncscoots
August 31st, 2011
3:41 pm
SB, roger your 3:33, I knew that.
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
3:42 pm
Lew, where? Show me.
raleighbravefan
August 31st, 2011
3:42 pm
Shaun – Again, semantics. I believe you have said several times that he was mediocre to slightly above average, at best, and that he would soon begin the long age-related downward spiral. That’s a summery of your opinions as I remember them, not exact quotes.
ncscoots
August 31st, 2011
3:44 pm
I though Sherill has always looked like he had some inflammation all over his body. I guess they just picked the elbow, this time.
Maybe somebody can fix the bill on his doggone cap, while he’s healing.
cricket
August 31st, 2011
3:45 pm
I need to rush to Walmart and stock up!
stock up on typical ATL emergency purchase items – milk, bread and water…
Arkansas Transplant
August 31st, 2011
3:45 pm
Hey, do you guys remember when Shaun said Bourn was no good and was regressing? I do.
Hugo
August 31st, 2011
3:46 pm
Shaun
Could I pleas have a concise, 1-3 sentence summary of how EXACTLY you feel about Jair and then we let it go? Reasonable, yes?
Mudge
August 31st, 2011
3:46 pm
The Lugo/Conrad issue brings to mind Wilson Valdez, journeyman supreme, who has played 2B, 3B, SS and pitcher for the Phillies and is their best hitter with RISP. There has to be another one out there somewhere.
Bat Masterson
August 31st, 2011
3:46 pm
Is stealing someones name still a banning offense around. Total f’in’ BS
ncscoots
August 31st, 2011
3:46 pm
Let’s face it…if you have a supernova emergency kit, you might be just a wee bit over-prepared.
MikeInFl
August 31st, 2011
3:48 pm
I’ve resisted on some hurricane warnings, but I think if a supernova was coming, I’d go ahead and evacuate. Just get in the car and drive. Don’t want to mess around with those things.
Efrim
August 31st, 2011
3:49 pm
I do think Jurrjens is one of those types that is going to outperform a lot of the ERA indicator stats. But that doesn’t mean he’s actually as good as his 2011 ERA indicates.
You called him a good #4 starter. I think that is reeeeeealllly selling the guy short. I’m curious, what do you think Matt Cain is?
Arkansas Transplant
August 31st, 2011
3:49 pm
I’ve got my stargate pass key just in case of a supernova emergency.. don’t you all?
ncscoots
August 31st, 2011
3:51 pm
Don’t want to mess around with those things.
For sure, you’d want to up your SPF.
Hugo
August 31st, 2011
3:51 pm
Here are some stats to prove that these other stats are true indicators…
Wait a minute, we have to have pass keys?
Stizz
August 31st, 2011
3:51 pm
Shaun reminds me of Drillbit Taylor. We know he’s got some good in him somewhere, but it comes across all wrong sometimes.
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
3:51 pm
raleighbravefan, Don’t recall saying that. Again, maybe you can show me.
I did say something like by year 2-3 of his next contract he will be mediocre-to-below-average offensively, though he will likely be a plus defender in center for several more seasons.
Right now he’s above average offensively and is an elite defensive centerfielder or close to it. But I expect his offense to drop to average or below average and his defense to drop off to merely well above average instead of elite or something close to it as he plays into his 30’s.
David O'Brien
August 31st, 2011
3:52 pm
NEW BLOGGAGE
Arkansas Transplant
August 31st, 2011
3:53 pm
Well, last I heard the deadline has passed.. you mean you didn’t pick yours up by the deadline?
Hugo
August 31st, 2011
3:54 pm
I”m starting to get really concerned. Does anybody know of anybody who is not projected to regress?
Mudge
August 31st, 2011
3:56 pm
Teheran and Delgado will progress.
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
4:03 pm
Efrim, I think Cain is a decent number 2, a good number 3 and a great number 4. Over his career, Cain has been a better strikeout pitcher and a better control pitcher than Jurrjens.
Hugo, I think Jurrjens is an acceptable number 3 and a really good number 4. There you go.
Arkansas Transplant, I’ve never said Bourn is “no good.” I said he will start to decline at around the time his next contract kicks in. He’ll still be very valuable, mostly because of his defense in center.
Also, “regression” is not the same as “decline.” A good player who has had a down year can regress to his norms, which would mean he improved. Let me be clear, I think Bourn will start to decline around the time of his next contract.
Lew
August 31st, 2011
4:05 pm
12:20 PM Aug. 29 -
“His hitting skills are not overly great so his hitting skills will likely drop noticeably with age” Shaun
And this was after posts claiming that ” I think Nate McLouth is a decent comparison as far as offensive value”.