f Chipper needs a rest, Prado to third and Constanza to LF. Unless of course, we get platoon crazy.
Despite all the protests and calls, I just don’t think Constanza is a key cog in the plans for this team. That is to say, I don’t think his presence on the team would get in the way of any of Wren’s planning for next year.
“Between a Lugo replacement and a good RP I’ll take a good RP. Lugo is harmless cause he never plays.”
I’d accept that response if we raked against LHP. But we don’t.
Our bullpen will certainly survive as is. Our lineup clearly cannot survive against LHP. Especially good LHP that will be on other playoff teams.
Because Lugo is seldom used says more about HIS spot being wasted by him, rather than it being needed for another bullpen arm. If we had a player worth a damn replace him with, that’s much better than using his spot on another arm.
Shaun (August 31st, 2011 1:07 pm): “Jurrjens has pitched worse. But he also didn’t actually pitch as well in the first half as his basic, “traditional” stats (for lack of a better term) seemed to indicate. So his results are actually more closely matching his actual performance, unlike the first half, and he’s pitching worse; so it’s a combo of those two things.”
So you’re saying that Jurrjens’ “actual (or underlying) performance” has remained the same after the AllStar break as it was before the AllStar break, but it is only now being more truly manifested in his “results”/performance on the field (as indicated by his basic, “traditional” stats)?
Prove it — show us how JJ’s “actual (or underlying) performance” after the break is anywhere close to his “actual (or underlying) performance” before the break.
RC, at this point Tejada is much better than Lugo, if at all.
MikeInFl and Efrim, actually $2M worth of performance on the free agent market isn’t all that much performance. In 2010 free agent dollars, Diaz’s 2010 performance was worth a little over $2M, per FanGraphs’s conversions.
Random, I see you’re playing whack-a-mole with Infante again…every time his name is mentioned, you bring the slash-line hammer down on the unlucky poster’s head. And where are you getting the 4 mil salary number from?
I think Constanza will be where he likely should be next season.
Either on the 25 man roster as the 4th outfielder. Or at AAA waiting for an injury or massive slump to be called up. As much of a spark plug as he’s been, I’m not sure you can make your off-season plans as a GM around him being one of the regular 8.
If he continues to produce at a high level and forces his way into more playing time (like Prado and Infante did before him), then that’s great. Nothing to not like about that.
On a side note has anybody noticed what Schafer has done since returning from the DL with the Astros over 9 games?
.333/.421/.424/.845 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 4 BB and 3 SB (0 CS).
Ironically, here is what Bourn has done over that time (actually 10 games):
.302 /302/.395/.698 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 0 BB and 2 SB (3 CS)
Time will tell if it was the right move or not. I think Bourn is better in CF defensively than Schafer is, so I’m alright with it. But how frustrating will it be if Schafer puts up Bourn like numbers over the next 2-3 years for peanuts and here we’re talking about whether Bourn is worth 10+ million per year after next year?
Random, no. His underlying performance has gotten worse. But also his results have also aligned more closely with his performance. It’s not either/or. It’s both. His results are more closely matching his actual performance than in the first half and his actual performance has been worse.
JJ is not a “fundamentally 4-something ERA guy”. He’s made 115 starts in his career and has a career ERA of 3.40. He’s only had two years where had an ERA above 3.7. His first year with the Tigers when he only made 7 starts and last year when he only made 20 starts and was on the DL several times and ended up having offseason knee surgery.
2007: 7 GS 4.70 ERA (Tigers)
2008: 31 GS 3.68 ERA (Braves)
2009: 34 GS 2.60 ERA
2010: 20 GS 4.64 ERA
2011: 23 GS 2.96 ERA
random The Braves have already gotten all they ever will from Infante. They surely wouldn’t pay $4+ million/year for a bench player/utility infielder, would they?
no, they wouldnt pay that much. but, who will? if the braves want a good utility player, i dont think they will have to compete with someone wanting to pay omar over $4mil per year.
MikeInFl and Efrim, actually $2M worth of performance on the free agent market isn’t all that much performance. In 2010 free agent dollars, Diaz’s 2010 performance was worth a little over $2M, per FanGraphs’s conversions.
Right, and if at age 34 he reverts to age 32 performance, it’s a great deal.
N8, if Schafer is going to perform like Bourn over a longer haul than 9 games, it likely won’t be for another couple of years. But anything is possible, I suppose. Schafer has the tools to be a pretty good player.
Clearly Bourn is a known commodity and like Uggla can pretty much be penciled in for what he’s done at least for a couple more years. Where Schafer could swat a mosquito on his neck and breack his wrist again.
I think Jordan when healthy will do exactly what the Braves thought he was capable of over a full season. However, just like the Braves front office was likely concerned, I’m not convinced he’ll ever play in more than 120 games in a season (if that).
I’m happy for Jordan if this trade sparks his career. Still plenty young and maybe the change of scenery is just what he needed. Sometimes fresh starts mean everything.
MikeInFl, well, it wouldn’t be any sort of deal. But it wouldn’t be awful. Plus, if he’s really bad and the Braves release him, the most they pay for him in sunk costs is $2M. Not ideal, by any means, but not a horrible risk to take.
Jamey Carroll? Didn’t the guy graduate the same year as Lew?
I’ve decided to live a minimum of thirty more years, even if I become a crotchety, mumbling wobbler, just so I can give Murph bleep when he starts getting up in the middle of the night to hit the bathroom.
N8, well, I think there was more concern with Schafer than just injury. He was pretty bad over the last couple of years against minor league and major league pitching. Schafer has tools but if he’s going to be a solid major leaguer, I think he has another year or two to develop. So I think basically Schafer is essentially still a prospect, to some degree. So this was more or less a trade of a prospect for a player to help the Braves now.
Dave or Carroll I saw the Braves had some guy named Dustin Richardson on the 40 man currently. I this done to circumvent the Aug 31 playoff roster lock? Put him on the 25 for a few hours then DL him. Since he was DLed anyone can take his place later. I have heard of this in the past and was wondering if MLB had closed this loophole or if that was why he is currently on the 40 despite not pitching since 2010?
Bawlmer Brave, I don’t think Tejada has been any good at short in a while. Honestly I don’t think he’s a noticeable upgrade over Lugo at this point in their careers. Tejada looks done to me.
I’ve decided to live a minimum of thirty more years, even if I become a crotchety, mumbling wobbler, just so I can give Murph bleep when he starts getting up in the middle of the night to hit the bathroom.
I would welcome a knock on my nursing room door from a laughing scoots while I stand in a puddle of my own waste calling for a nurse to clean me up. That would mean we managed to avoid the holocaust, zombies, Shaun’s hairpiece coming to life and eating our spleens, deer attacks, and other things I have nightmares about.
Freeing us from the grips of Jo Jo Reyes last year was nice, I just noticed the Canadians are now free of him as well. Wouldn’t have even know had I not clicked on ESPN’s article about the Orioles and how they know their season is a mess when they look up and see the rotation has Jo Jo Reyes in it.
DAP (August 31st, 2011 1:47 pm): “[:] ‘The Braves have already gotten all they ever will from Infante. They surely wouldn’t pay $4+ million/year for a bench player/utility infielder, would they?’
“no, they wouldnt pay that much. but, who will? if the braves want a good utility player, i dont think they will have to compete with someone wanting to pay omar over $4mil per year.”
Oh, okay — I misread his contract figures. He’s making only $2.5M this year, with a possible $1M bonus for 580 Plate appearances.
I’m calling BULL$#*T Shaun. You said he was mid to low rotation.
Hugo, mid to back-end starter in the majors is “poor”? I wouldn’t say that. I would say a “poor” pitcher is a guy who is a clearly no better than a number 5 or a bad number 4, a spot-starter type or a guy that would be a long-man type on most teams.
Stizz – I watched the Bulls vs Braves game last night. Helms had a big error (ball between the legs, a la Bill Buckner), and a baserunning mistake, which probably cost the Braves a run.
Moylan faced 3 batters in the 7th, and struck them all out.
I would say a “poor” pitcher is a guy who is a clearly no better than a number 5 or a bad number 4, a spot-starter type or a guy that would be a long-man type on most teams.
Shaun (August 31st, 2011 1:45 pm): “no. His underlying performance has gotten worse. But also his results have also aligned more closely with his performance. It’s not either/or. It’s both. His results are more closely matching his actual performance than in the first half and his actual performance has been worse.”
We understand what you’re saying, but don’t just TELL us — SHOW us.
Hit us with a comparison of the actual “underlying performance” stats that show (a) the difference between them before and after the the AllStar break; and (b) the difference between them and his “traditional” stats both before and after the break.
If you’re right, we should see a bigger disconnect between the two (”underlying performance” stats v “traditional” stats) before the break than after the break.
DAP – Brooks hits better against LHP, yet a. they’re not playing him against LHP though they suck against lefties and b. they just brought in Diaz to hit LHP. How doesthis tell yopu Conrad will still have a place?
Aside from those three PH HR, Brooks has done nothing – and is lousy defensively. I like the Dude, but everything says he’s the odd man out.
random [Omar is] making only $2.5M this year, with a possible $1M bonus for 580 Plate appearances.
thats a contract frank wren signed him to, by the way. after a down year for infante, he might not get a job as a starter from anyone. could be an option for a utility player. by the way, hvaing him would make a guy like lugo unnecessary.
Matty is like Brooksie. Ya just gotta love em for the hustle. He will take some swings that create nothing but a breeze. Glad to see him back to help us with the lefties. Good bench guy with great team chemistry. Welcome home Matty D.
Infante thru 30 Aug 11 = .278/.321/.360/.681, which more or less represents an expected “regression to the mean” of his career line of .275/.319/.390/.709.
Let no one here ever expect to see again the .321/.359/.416/.775 Infante of last year, much less anything better.
The Braves have already gotten all they ever will from Infante. They surely wouldn’t pay $4+ million/year for a bench player/utility infielder, would they? –Random
Uh, why do you think that they would need to pay him $4M? His salary for the ENTIRE season is only 2.5M and they would only be responsible for about 1/4 of that total. He is a free agent after this season so they wouldn’t owe him anything next season. Also, I know that Omar will never hit .321 again….but if he hits better than the .136 hitting Julio Lugo through the rest of the season and the playoffs then he would be well worth that little bit of money that he is owed. We are an Alex Gonzalez injury away from Lugo being the starting shortstop. Are you really ok with that???? At least Omar gets an occasional pinch hit too.
raleighbravefan, okay, let’s make this clear. I think Jurrjens is fundamentally a low-4-ERA pitcher. I think that’s good enough to be a serviceable number 3, a solid number 4 and a really good number 5 starter. That is basically what the peripherals indicate, that he is a low-4-ERA pitcher.
could be right about conrad, lew. good thing about him is that he CAN play 2B and 3B (albeit not well). if we have hinske and diaz, we still have to have an infield backup of some kind.
Hugo Z Hackenbush (August 31st, 2011 1:44 pm): “I see you’re playing whack-a-mole with Infante again…every time his name is mentioned, you bring the slash-line hammer down on the unlucky poster’s head. And where are you getting the 4 mil salary number from?”
I was wrong — I misread his contract figures.
My bad.
He’s making only $2.5M this year (last year of contract), with a possible $1M bonus for 580 Plate appearances.
Have a feeling Wes Helms was the backup for the backup for Chipper. He didn’t pan out in the minors and I doubt the Braves would chance Brooks again in the playoffs. Somebody is coming to Atlanta for the infield and I don’t think it will be a callup. Wouldn’t mind Omar.
hvaing him would make a guy like lugo unnecessary.
What a dream. No Lugo, and the 2010 bench depth of Omar and Diaz. They’re not what they used to be but certainly better than Mather and Lujo, or Young and Lugo, …
Rowand is still owed about 14 mil by the Giants for this year and next. Talk about taking a loss! The talking heads are saying that the Giants will be eating virtually all of his salary if anyone wants to talk deal. I suppose in essence, Rowand can be had for an inconsequential prospect. Either that or the Giants get nothing and STILL have to pay his salary!
DOB, but if they don’t get claim and they become FA and someone can pick them say at league minimun. Tejada might make some sense, an improvement over Lugo
Here is a breakdown of the difference between Jurrjens’s ERA’s and xFIP’s, by month. Clearly there is more of a variance in his ERA and underlying performance the further back you go in the season.
March/April: 2.42 lower than xFIP
May: 1.98 lower than xFIP
June: 1.34 lower than xFIP
July: 0.47 lower than xFIP
August: 0.41 higher than xFIP
July and August, his results, in terms of ERA have matched closer to his actual performance, peripherals, underlying performance, etc.
“Headed back to Atlanta,” Diaz said on Twitter just while ago. “Enjoyed playing with the Pirate players so much. But I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t excited. Time to go back back home.”
I see you’re playing whack-a-mole with Infante again
Funny story… a couple of nights ago Mrs Murph and I were out without kids and had to stop by the local Target to get a birthday present for one of their little friends. We’re walking down the game aisle and it went something like this:
Mrs Murph: Oh, hey, check this one out. Looks like a lot of fun! Wok-a-mole-eh. Kind of like guacamole, but with little animals.
Murph: Um, honey, I believe that says Whack-a-mole.
ernesto, In a complete bust for the Giants, no one claims or signs Rowand and they pay the remaining 14 mil. Next worse scenario is he is signed for the major league minimum after he clears and the Giants pay all his salary with the exception of what the minimum works out to. And the best workout for the Giants is they at least walk away for a bag of balls and a prospect for Rowand and they at least get something for him.
When a team DFA’s a guy who they owe 14 mil to, they have told the world they are prepared to eat his contract. Doesn’t exactly give them a position of strength to bargain with other teams for his services.
ncscoots, I agree there. But that still doesn’t negate that stats like xFIP and SIERRA are usually a better predictor than actual ERA, even if there are some imperfections.
Yeah, that’s what I figured – he’d sign somewhere for league minimum. He hits around .280 against lefites and isn’t having a great year, but he’s only 34 so it’s not exactly a slam dunk that he’s done.
But that still doesn’t negate that stats like xFIP and SIERRA are usually a better predictor than actual ERA, even if there are some imperfections.
didn’t say they weren’t. However, as I read your comments, they come across as “xFIP is low-4, ergo, Jurjens is low-4.” As usual, you left no room for the greys.
But perhaps you’ll like fSIERA better, since it tries to address the flaws you appear to dismiss:
Hey DOB, I thought because the Giants DFA’ed Rowand that we wouldnt have to claim him, just sign him as a free agent. But then again, he wouldnt be on playoff roster.
“The addition of Diaz will provide the Braves with a right-handed option in the order. He hit .259 with no home runs and 18 RBIs in 216 at-bats for Pittsburgh this season — but is hitting .295 against left-handed pitching in 100 at-bats.
Outfielder Jason Heyward has struggled against left-handed pitching this season, batting .188 in 96 at-bats. It’s been a lackluster second season for Heyward overall, with a .221 average, 13 home runs and 38 RBIs in 330 at-bats.”
I knew I was looking for a word to describe Heyward’s performance this year. LACKLUSTER. Yeah, that’s it.
1,671 comments Add your comment
raleighbravefan
August 31st, 2011
1:37 pm
snotboogie – That is correct.
TennesseePaul
August 31st, 2011
1:38 pm
f Chipper needs a rest, Prado to third and Constanza to LF. Unless of course, we get platoon crazy.
Despite all the protests and calls, I just don’t think Constanza is a key cog in the plans for this team. That is to say, I don’t think his presence on the team would get in the way of any of Wren’s planning for next year.
N8
August 31st, 2011
1:38 pm
“Between a Lugo replacement and a good RP I’ll take a good RP. Lugo is harmless cause he never plays.”
I’d accept that response if we raked against LHP. But we don’t.
Our bullpen will certainly survive as is. Our lineup clearly cannot survive against LHP. Especially good LHP that will be on other playoff teams.
Because Lugo is seldom used says more about HIS spot being wasted by him, rather than it being needed for another bullpen arm. If we had a player worth a damn replace him with, that’s much better than using his spot on another arm.
raleighbravefan
August 31st, 2011
1:39 pm
Snot – correct about 10 days, not about Hinske. I expect them to bring back Ski.
Hugo
August 31st, 2011
1:39 pm
Hinske- LH
Diaz- RH
hopefully this means somebody else will hit the road. I like those bench bats.
BFChris26
August 31st, 2011
1:39 pm
Snotboogie
Nah, I think both Hinske & Diaz will be kept next season. I think it’d spell the end for Conrad.
Random
August 31st, 2011
1:39 pm
Shaun (August 31st, 2011 1:07 pm): “Jurrjens has pitched worse. But he also didn’t actually pitch as well in the first half as his basic, “traditional” stats (for lack of a better term) seemed to indicate. So his results are actually more closely matching his actual performance, unlike the first half, and he’s pitching worse; so it’s a combo of those two things.”
So you’re saying that Jurrjens’ “actual (or underlying) performance” has remained the same after the AllStar break as it was before the AllStar break, but it is only now being more truly manifested in his “results”/performance on the field (as indicated by his basic, “traditional” stats)?
Prove it — show us how JJ’s “actual (or underlying) performance” after the break is anywhere close to his “actual (or underlying) performance” before the break.
Youknowme
August 31st, 2011
1:42 pm
Per DOB on Twitter: Braves didn’t have to remove anyone from 40-man; they were at 39 before trading for Diaz.
O.J.
August 31st, 2011
1:42 pm
Miguel Tejada and Aaron Rowand were DFA’ed
Lew
August 31st, 2011
1:42 pm
SB – Nah, I’m thinking we won’t see Brooks Conrad in Atlanta next year. Hinske’s a keeper.
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
1:42 pm
RC, at this point Tejada is much better than Lugo, if at all.
MikeInFl and Efrim, actually $2M worth of performance on the free agent market isn’t all that much performance. In 2010 free agent dollars, Diaz’s 2010 performance was worth a little over $2M, per FanGraphs’s conversions.
tiger297
August 31st, 2011
1:43 pm
my other 1/2 just walked in to the room and pulled out my Diaz jersey…nice way to find out
Mixxo
August 31st, 2011
1:44 pm
I hate Rowand’s batting stance. I dunno, there’s just something vulgar about it.
Hugo Z Hackenbush
August 31st, 2011
1:44 pm
Random, I see you’re playing whack-a-mole with Infante again…every time his name is mentioned, you bring the slash-line hammer down on the unlucky poster’s head. And where are you getting the 4 mil salary number from?
N8
August 31st, 2011
1:45 pm
I think Constanza will be where he likely should be next season.
Either on the 25 man roster as the 4th outfielder. Or at AAA waiting for an injury or massive slump to be called up. As much of a spark plug as he’s been, I’m not sure you can make your off-season plans as a GM around him being one of the regular 8.
If he continues to produce at a high level and forces his way into more playing time (like Prado and Infante did before him), then that’s great. Nothing to not like about that.
On a side note has anybody noticed what Schafer has done since returning from the DL with the Astros over 9 games?
.333/.421/.424/.845 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 4 BB and 3 SB (0 CS).
Ironically, here is what Bourn has done over that time (actually 10 games):
.302 /302/.395/.698 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 0 BB and 2 SB (3 CS)
Time will tell if it was the right move or not. I think Bourn is better in CF defensively than Schafer is, so I’m alright with it. But how frustrating will it be if Schafer puts up Bourn like numbers over the next 2-3 years for peanuts and here we’re talking about whether Bourn is worth 10+ million per year after next year?
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
1:45 pm
Random, no. His underlying performance has gotten worse. But also his results have also aligned more closely with his performance. It’s not either/or. It’s both. His results are more closely matching his actual performance than in the first half and his actual performance has been worse.
Lpad
August 31st, 2011
1:46 pm
JJ is not a “fundamentally 4-something ERA guy”. He’s made 115 starts in his career and has a career ERA of 3.40. He’s only had two years where had an ERA above 3.7. His first year with the Tigers when he only made 7 starts and last year when he only made 20 starts and was on the DL several times and ended up having offseason knee surgery.
2007: 7 GS 4.70 ERA (Tigers)
2008: 31 GS 3.68 ERA (Braves)
2009: 34 GS 2.60 ERA
2010: 20 GS 4.64 ERA
2011: 23 GS 2.96 ERA
DAP
August 31st, 2011
1:47 pm
random The Braves have already gotten all they ever will from Infante. They surely wouldn’t pay $4+ million/year for a bench player/utility infielder, would they?
no, they wouldnt pay that much. but, who will? if the braves want a good utility player, i dont think they will have to compete with someone wanting to pay omar over $4mil per year.
Snotboogie
August 31st, 2011
1:47 pm
Ok – looks like everyone is agreed on Hinske staying then. Thanks.
MFin04
August 31st, 2011
1:47 pm
MATTY D!!!! Been waiting for him to come back!
MikeInFl
August 31st, 2011
1:47 pm
MikeInFl and Efrim, actually $2M worth of performance on the free agent market isn’t all that much performance. In 2010 free agent dollars, Diaz’s 2010 performance was worth a little over $2M, per FanGraphs’s conversions.
Right, and if at age 34 he reverts to age 32 performance, it’s a great deal.
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
1:48 pm
N8, if Schafer is going to perform like Bourn over a longer haul than 9 games, it likely won’t be for another couple of years. But anything is possible, I suppose. Schafer has the tools to be a pretty good player.
N8
August 31st, 2011
1:48 pm
Clearly Bourn is a known commodity and like Uggla can pretty much be penciled in for what he’s done at least for a couple more years. Where Schafer could swat a mosquito on his neck and breack his wrist again.
I think Jordan when healthy will do exactly what the Braves thought he was capable of over a full season. However, just like the Braves front office was likely concerned, I’m not convinced he’ll ever play in more than 120 games in a season (if that).
N8
August 31st, 2011
1:50 pm
I’m happy for Jordan if this trade sparks his career. Still plenty young and maybe the change of scenery is just what he needed. Sometimes fresh starts mean everything.
DAP
August 31st, 2011
1:51 pm
lew Nah, I’m thinking we won’t see Brooks Conrad in Atlanta next year. Hinske’s a keeper.
really? goodbye clutch conrad? im not sure about that.no doubt hinske’s a keeper though.
David O'Brien
August 31st, 2011
1:54 pm
Do we still have to make a move on the 40-man to add Diaz? — jim
No, Braves were at 39.
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
1:55 pm
MikeInFl, well, it wouldn’t be any sort of deal. But it wouldn’t be awful. Plus, if he’s really bad and the Braves release him, the most they pay for him in sunk costs is $2M. Not ideal, by any means, but not a horrible risk to take.
Bawlmer Brave
August 31st, 2011
2:00 pm
Thoughts on going after Tejada as a backup SS. I know his bat has been bad, but still passable D??
ncscoots
August 31st, 2011
2:02 pm
If he continues to produce at a high level and forces his way into more playing time
Have you not been reading the “N8 Constanza Watch” each Monday, LOL?
tiger297
August 31st, 2011
2:03 pm
so sherrill is off the 25 man now or is that old news?
Murph
August 31st, 2011
2:04 pm
Jamey Carroll? Didn’t the guy graduate the same year as Lew?
I’d rather have him than Lugo, sure, but is he really the best option out there?
BFChris26
August 31st, 2011
2:05 pm
tiger297
Sherrill is on 15 Day DL retro to 27th.
Threadkiller
August 31st, 2011
2:07 pm
Tejada and Rowand will not be unemployed for long.
ncscoots
August 31st, 2011
2:07 pm
Jamey Carroll? Didn’t the guy graduate the same year as Lew?
I’ve decided to live a minimum of thirty more years, even if I become a crotchety, mumbling wobbler, just so I can give Murph bleep when he starts getting up in the middle of the night to hit the bathroom.
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
2:08 pm
N8, well, I think there was more concern with Schafer than just injury. He was pretty bad over the last couple of years against minor league and major league pitching. Schafer has tools but if he’s going to be a solid major leaguer, I think he has another year or two to develop. So I think basically Schafer is essentially still a prospect, to some degree. So this was more or less a trade of a prospect for a player to help the Braves now.
Richmond Braves Fan
August 31st, 2011
2:11 pm
Dave or Carroll I saw the Braves had some guy named Dustin Richardson on the 40 man currently. I this done to circumvent the Aug 31 playoff roster lock? Put him on the 25 for a few hours then DL him. Since he was DLed anyone can take his place later. I have heard of this in the past and was wondering if MLB had closed this loophole or if that was why he is currently on the 40 despite not pitching since 2010?
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
2:11 pm
Bawlmer Brave, I don’t think Tejada has been any good at short in a while. Honestly I don’t think he’s a noticeable upgrade over Lugo at this point in their careers. Tejada looks done to me.
Threadkiller
August 31st, 2011
2:13 pm
Tejada will bring more to the Braves than Lugo.
DAP
August 31st, 2011
2:15 pm
threadkiller Tejada will bring more to the Braves than Lugo.
more of what? terrible in the field, and cant hit worth a flip anymore.
Murph
August 31st, 2011
2:16 pm
I’ve decided to live a minimum of thirty more years, even if I become a crotchety, mumbling wobbler, just so I can give Murph bleep when he starts getting up in the middle of the night to hit the bathroom.
I would welcome a knock on my nursing room door from a laughing scoots while I stand in a puddle of my own waste calling for a nurse to clean me up. That would mean we managed to avoid the holocaust, zombies, Shaun’s hairpiece coming to life and eating our spleens, deer attacks, and other things I have nightmares about.
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
2:17 pm
I’m sorry I’m such a fu%&*!g retard…
ncscoots
August 31st, 2011
2:19 pm
Never does the Braves offense rush to the rescue of a starter on an off night, regardless of how many off nights JJ has had in the past month.
They did exactly that, for Jurrjens, in fact, July 17 against the Nats. Trailing 6-2 and 8-7, won 9-8.
Try to keep up.
Threadkiller
August 31st, 2011
2:20 pm
Apology Accepted!
TennesseePaul
August 31st, 2011
2:21 pm
Freeing us from the grips of Jo Jo Reyes last year was nice, I just noticed the Canadians are now free of him as well. Wouldn’t have even know had I not clicked on ESPN’s article about the Orioles and how they know their season is a mess when they look up and see the rotation has Jo Jo Reyes in it.
ncscoots
August 31st, 2011
2:22 pm
Murph, LOL.
Random
August 31st, 2011
2:23 pm
DAP (August 31st, 2011 1:47 pm): “[:] ‘The Braves have already gotten all they ever will from Infante. They surely wouldn’t pay $4+ million/year for a bench player/utility infielder, would they?’
“no, they wouldnt pay that much. but, who will? if the braves want a good utility player, i dont think they will have to compete with someone wanting to pay omar over $4mil per year.”
Oh, okay — I misread his contract figures. He’s making only $2.5M this year, with a possible $1M bonus for 580 Plate appearances.
Stizz
August 31st, 2011
2:24 pm
Wes Helms clearly wasnt cutting it in AAA. Matty is a nice sight to see in a Braves uni for our RH hitter
Big Nick
August 31st, 2011
2:24 pm
What time does the deadline pass today?
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
2:25 pm
I’m calling BULL$#*T Shaun. You said he was mid to low rotation.
Hugo, mid to back-end starter in the majors is “poor”? I wouldn’t say that. I would say a “poor” pitcher is a guy who is a clearly no better than a number 5 or a bad number 4, a spot-starter type or a guy that would be a long-man type on most teams.
ncscoots
August 31st, 2011
2:26 pm
Matty is a nice sight to see in a Braves uni for our RH hitter
Might want to see how he hits before breaking out into song. I know people love the guy, but still…
raleighbravefan
August 31st, 2011
2:28 pm
Stizz – I watched the Bulls vs Braves game last night. Helms had a big error (ball between the legs, a la Bill Buckner), and a baserunning mistake, which probably cost the Braves a run.
Moylan faced 3 batters in the 7th, and struck them all out.
Hillbilly
August 31st, 2011
2:29 pm
Might want to see how he hits before breaking out into song. I know people love the guy, but still…
Lugo, scoots. Lugo…C’mon man let us have our moment.
raleighbravefan
August 31st, 2011
2:29 pm
Shaun – semantics
Murph
August 31st, 2011
2:31 pm
I would say a “poor” pitcher is a guy who is a clearly no better than a number 5 or a bad number 4, a spot-starter type or a guy that would be a long-man type on most teams.
Now you leave Derek Lowe alone!
ncscoots
August 31st, 2011
2:32 pm
Hillbilly, my mistake. Enjoy the moment.
Random
August 31st, 2011
2:33 pm
Shaun (August 31st, 2011 1:45 pm): “no. His underlying performance has gotten worse. But also his results have also aligned more closely with his performance. It’s not either/or. It’s both. His results are more closely matching his actual performance than in the first half and his actual performance has been worse.”
We understand what you’re saying, but don’t just TELL us — SHOW us.
Hit us with a comparison of the actual “underlying performance” stats that show (a) the difference between them before and after the the AllStar break; and (b) the difference between them and his “traditional” stats both before and after the break.
If you’re right, we should see a bigger disconnect between the two (”underlying performance” stats v “traditional” stats) before the break than after the break.
Right?
Lew
August 31st, 2011
2:33 pm
DAP – Brooks hits better against LHP, yet a. they’re not playing him against LHP though they suck against lefties and b. they just brought in Diaz to hit LHP. How doesthis tell yopu Conrad will still have a place?
Aside from those three PH HR, Brooks has done nothing – and is lousy defensively. I like the Dude, but everything says he’s the odd man out.
DAP
August 31st, 2011
2:34 pm
random [Omar is] making only $2.5M this year, with a possible $1M bonus for 580 Plate appearances.
thats a contract frank wren signed him to, by the way. after a down year for infante, he might not get a job as a starter from anyone. could be an option for a utility player. by the way, hvaing him would make a guy like lugo unnecessary.
Travis
August 31st, 2011
2:35 pm
Matty is like Brooksie. Ya just gotta love em for the hustle. He will take some swings that create nothing but a breeze. Glad to see him back to help us with the lefties. Good bench guy with great team chemistry. Welcome home Matty D.
Stizz
August 31st, 2011
2:36 pm
Whoa just read that we are trying for Theriot or Carroll as well. That would be leaps and bounds over Lugo/Hicks/Diory
ernesto
August 31st, 2011
2:36 pm
aaron rowand, anyone?
JT Grace
August 31st, 2011
2:37 pm
Infante thru 30 Aug 11 = .278/.321/.360/.681, which more or less represents an expected “regression to the mean” of his career line of .275/.319/.390/.709.
Let no one here ever expect to see again the .321/.359/.416/.775 Infante of last year, much less anything better.
The Braves have already gotten all they ever will from Infante. They surely wouldn’t pay $4+ million/year for a bench player/utility infielder, would they? –Random
Uh, why do you think that they would need to pay him $4M? His salary for the ENTIRE season is only 2.5M and they would only be responsible for about 1/4 of that total. He is a free agent after this season so they wouldn’t owe him anything next season. Also, I know that Omar will never hit .321 again….but if he hits better than the .136 hitting Julio Lugo through the rest of the season and the playoffs then he would be well worth that little bit of money that he is owed. We are an Alex Gonzalez injury away from Lugo being the starting shortstop. Are you really ok with that???? At least Omar gets an occasional pinch hit too.
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
2:38 pm
raleighbravefan, okay, let’s make this clear. I think Jurrjens is fundamentally a low-4-ERA pitcher. I think that’s good enough to be a serviceable number 3, a solid number 4 and a really good number 5 starter. That is basically what the peripherals indicate, that he is a low-4-ERA pitcher.
DAP
August 31st, 2011
2:38 pm
could be right about conrad, lew. good thing about him is that he CAN play 2B and 3B (albeit not well). if we have hinske and diaz, we still have to have an infield backup of some kind.
Stizz
August 31st, 2011
2:39 pm
scoots,
I think coming back to Atl will spark him a bit. Spot starts here and there and put up good numbers against LH pitching.
CrαZy
August 31st, 2011
2:40 pm
Kimbrel and Venters MLB network interview:
Watch Venters and Kimbrel on Intentional Talk
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18630463&topic_id=7417714&tcid=fb_MLBNETWORK_18630463&c_id=mlb
Lew
August 31st, 2011
2:40 pm
ernesto – Rowand? Why? We don’t need more outfielders, wqe need a SS back up.
MFin04
August 31st, 2011
2:41 pm
So I take it the Braves were smart enough to get Diaz here for the game tonight against a lefty and a team we struggle against right!?!
Random
August 31st, 2011
2:41 pm
Hugo Z Hackenbush (August 31st, 2011 1:44 pm): “I see you’re playing whack-a-mole with Infante again…every time his name is mentioned, you bring the slash-line hammer down on the unlucky poster’s head. And where are you getting the 4 mil salary number from?”
I was wrong — I misread his contract figures.
My bad.
He’s making only $2.5M this year (last year of contract), with a possible $1M bonus for 580 Plate appearances.
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005_01_19_mlbcontracts_archive.html
David O'Brien
August 31st, 2011
2:43 pm
Lew, especially since Rowand is owed a whole lot of money. Giants would LOVE for someone to claim him on waivers.
Travis
August 31st, 2011
2:43 pm
Have a feeling Wes Helms was the backup for the backup for Chipper. He didn’t pan out in the minors and I doubt the Braves would chance Brooks again in the playoffs. Somebody is coming to Atlanta for the infield and I don’t think it will be a callup. Wouldn’t mind Omar.
David O'Brien
August 31st, 2011
2:44 pm
Rowand’s owed $12 million in 2012. Yeah, he’s imminently available to any team that wants to pay that.
Lew
August 31st, 2011
2:45 pm
DOB – Good point. I didn’t even think about that aspect.
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
2:47 pm
Random, for the season, Jurrjens’s SIERRA is 4.28. His xFIP is 4.18.
First-half ERA: 1.87 (.260 BABIP)
Second-half ERA: 5.88 (.305 BABIP)
March/April: ERA: 1.23 xFIP: 3.65
May: ERA: 1.65 xFIP: 3.63
June: ERA: 3.30 xFIP: 4.64
July: ERA: 3.27 xFIP: 3.74
August: ERA: 6.17 xFIP: 5.76
TennesseePaul
August 31st, 2011
2:48 pm
hvaing him would make a guy like lugo unnecessary.
What a dream. No Lugo, and the 2010 bench depth of Omar and Diaz. They’re not what they used to be but certainly better than Mather and Lujo, or Young and Lugo, …
Abacus Skeptic
August 31st, 2011
2:48 pm
Rowand is still owed about 14 mil by the Giants for this year and next. Talk about taking a loss! The talking heads are saying that the Giants will be eating virtually all of his salary if anyone wants to talk deal. I suppose in essence, Rowand can be had for an inconsequential prospect. Either that or the Giants get nothing and STILL have to pay his salary!
Random
August 31st, 2011
2:49 pm
@JT Grace (August 31st, 2011 2:37 pm) –
You, sir, are correct — see my 2:23 pm & 2:41 pm.
Tomas
August 31st, 2011
2:50 pm
DOB, but if they don’t get claim and they become FA and someone can pick them say at league minimun. Tejada might make some sense, an improvement over Lugo
Abacus Skeptic
August 31st, 2011
2:52 pm
Earlier comment about Rowand was made for clarity on my part. I personally don’t want to see Rowand in ATL.
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
2:52 pm
Here is a breakdown of the difference between Jurrjens’s ERA’s and xFIP’s, by month. Clearly there is more of a variance in his ERA and underlying performance the further back you go in the season.
March/April: 2.42 lower than xFIP
May: 1.98 lower than xFIP
June: 1.34 lower than xFIP
July: 0.47 lower than xFIP
August: 0.41 higher than xFIP
July and August, his results, in terms of ERA have matched closer to his actual performance, peripherals, underlying performance, etc.
CrαZy
August 31st, 2011
2:53 pm
25 man Postseason Roster???
*4 SP-(Hudson, Beachy, JJJ, Hanson(or whoever is healthy))
*7 RP-(Kimbrel, Venters, O’Flar, Vizcaino, Moylan, Martinez/Linebrink/Sherrill, Lowe)
*6 Bench-(Hinski, Ross, Diaz, Constanza, Lugo, Conrad)
*8 regulars-(McCann, Freeman, Uggla, Chipper, Gonzo, Prado, Bourn, Heyward)
ernesto
August 31st, 2011
2:54 pm
thought Rowand had been DFA’d so the Giants are already eating his salary.
David O'Brien
August 31st, 2011
2:55 pm
“Headed back to Atlanta,” Diaz said on Twitter just while ago. “Enjoyed playing with the Pirate players so much. But I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t excited. Time to go back back home.”
ncscoots
August 31st, 2011
2:56 pm
An actual, balanced look at pitching predictors:
http://calltothepen.com/2011/08/25/diamond-deities-problems-with-pitching-predictors/
Murph
August 31st, 2011
2:59 pm
I see you’re playing whack-a-mole with Infante again
Funny story… a couple of nights ago Mrs Murph and I were out without kids and had to stop by the local Target to get a birthday present for one of their little friends. We’re walking down the game aisle and it went something like this:
Mrs Murph: Oh, hey, check this one out. Looks like a lot of fun! Wok-a-mole-eh. Kind of like guacamole, but with little animals.
Murph: Um, honey, I believe that says Whack-a-mole.
Mrs Murph: You’re an arsehole.
Abacus Skeptic
August 31st, 2011
3:00 pm
ernesto, In a complete bust for the Giants, no one claims or signs Rowand and they pay the remaining 14 mil. Next worse scenario is he is signed for the major league minimum after he clears and the Giants pay all his salary with the exception of what the minimum works out to. And the best workout for the Giants is they at least walk away for a bag of balls and a prospect for Rowand and they at least get something for him.
When a team DFA’s a guy who they owe 14 mil to, they have told the world they are prepared to eat his contract. Doesn’t exactly give them a position of strength to bargain with other teams for his services.
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
3:00 pm
ncscoots, I agree there. But that still doesn’t negate that stats like xFIP and SIERRA are usually a better predictor than actual ERA, even if there are some imperfections.
cabravesfan
August 31st, 2011
3:01 pm
Lew-
Hey- good to see you. Hope you and your family are doing ok…
Murph
August 31st, 2011
3:01 pm
“Enjoyed playing with the Pirate players so much. But I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t excited. Time to go back back home.”
Well, nice to see he developed a stutter during his time in PA.
Big Nick
August 31st, 2011
3:02 pm
Ryan Theriot and some cash makes sense to me if they would take a marginal prospect or 2 back.
bravesgirlnc
August 31st, 2011
3:04 pm
Mattttttyyyy DDDDD! That makes my day.
ernesto
August 31st, 2011
3:04 pm
Yeah, that’s what I figured – he’d sign somewhere for league minimum. He hits around .280 against lefites and isn’t having a great year, but he’s only 34 so it’s not exactly a slam dunk that he’s done.
Tejada on the other hand…
Ease
August 31st, 2011
3:04 pm
Well, nice to see he developed a stutter during his time in PA.
or been hang around Chris Berman.
ncscoots
August 31st, 2011
3:05 pm
But that still doesn’t negate that stats like xFIP and SIERRA are usually a better predictor than actual ERA, even if there are some imperfections.
didn’t say they weren’t. However, as I read your comments, they come across as “xFIP is low-4, ergo, Jurjens is low-4.” As usual, you left no room for the greys.
But perhaps you’ll like fSIERA better, since it tries to address the flaws you appear to dismiss:
http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread.php/128075-Fangraphs-releases-fSIERA-Considering-Contact-and-Going-Beyond-FIP
O.J.
August 31st, 2011
3:06 pm
Hey DOB, I thought because the Giants DFA’ed Rowand that we wouldnt have to claim him, just sign him as a free agent. But then again, he wouldnt be on playoff roster.
But, who cares…….what am i talking about.
Lackluster Heyward
August 31st, 2011
3:10 pm
“The addition of Diaz will provide the Braves with a right-handed option in the order. He hit .259 with no home runs and 18 RBIs in 216 at-bats for Pittsburgh this season — but is hitting .295 against left-handed pitching in 100 at-bats.
Outfielder Jason Heyward has struggled against left-handed pitching this season, batting .188 in 96 at-bats. It’s been a lackluster second season for Heyward overall, with a .221 average, 13 home runs and 38 RBIs in 330 at-bats.”
I knew I was looking for a word to describe Heyward’s performance this year. LACKLUSTER. Yeah, that’s it.
Shaun
August 31st, 2011
3:12 pm
ncscoots, all the predictors have Jurrjens in the 4’s.
Snotboogie
August 31st, 2011
3:14 pm
Fangraphs has this piece :
“Top 5 SIERA Overperformers
by Mike Podhorzer – August 22, 2011″.
It features JJ. Coincidence that it is the topic of today’s Shaun-a-thon?
ncscoots
August 31st, 2011
3:14 pm
Not even a dent. Not even the tiniest little wrinkle in the facade, LOL.
Lew
August 31st, 2011
3:15 pm
cab – Yeah, we’re fine. Not so for much of the state, though.