2:17 pm August 30, 2011, by Carroll Rogers
August 31st, 20119:55 am
I didn’t make it to Durham last night for the Braves vs Bull, but I did watch it on TV. Braves lost 4-3. Varvaro gave up winning run in the 9th.
The good news is that Moylan pitched the 7th, and struck out the side. He pooked pretty sharp. AAA hitters didn’t have much of a chance against the side-armer.
Oh, and Wes Helms had a rough night, with a costly error (ball went between his legs while playing 1st base, a la Bill Buckner), and a costly mistake on the basepath, which probably cost the Braves a run.
he “looked”, not “pooked”.
August 31st, 20119:59 am
Still a good chance JJ figures it out before playoffs, and Hanson MAY be able to come back and be effective. If niether, well then thank goodness for the depth, which is a luxury. excellent chance of positive results, in spite of youth. And, of course, the REAL weapon is the awsome bullpen.
Hugo I think it’s just this bad right now. JJ has never been this bad before, even when he first came up. I think he’s not healthy.
no, hes healthy, hes just not “back”. whats going on now could be because of the injury, but i dont think he is still injured. he needs to figure some things out, and luckily, the braves have a nice cushion for him to be able to do that.
tiger297 I don’t watch the gun every pitch but at the stadium I don’t think I saw anything over 89
JJ had some 92 zipping up there last night. only saw it a few times, though.
Jurrjens was due for regression. Fundamentally he’s performed all season like a solid mid-rotation to back-end-of-the-rotation starter but the (dreaded) results on balls in play have been kind to him and he’s stranded runners at such a high rate that you expect that to drop. He was not missing enough bats and keeping runners off base to be considered the poor man’s Greg Maddux, as some suggested early this season.
August 31st, 201110:05 am
That’s a fair assesment of Maddux and Glavine but their post-season records would be better if we actually scored any runs for them or played defense.
Might also have been nice if the bullpen didn’t give up game winning home runs in Game 6 of the ‘91 World Series, Game 2 of the ‘92 WS and Game 3 of the ‘99 WS.
And then there’s the walk-off hits in Game 7 in ‘91, Game 3 in Toronto in ‘92, Mark Wohlers giving up a game winning home run in Game 5 of the ‘93 NLCS to Lenny Dykstra at Fulton County Stadium, Jim Leyritz, Robin Ventura, Chris Burke and most recently, Aubrey Huff and Buster Posey to name a few.
Hard to wrap your mind around that many bullpen collapses and yet only once in fourteen consecutive playoff appearances did the Braves hit a game winning walk-off home run, Rafael Furcal Game 2 in ‘04 in what was another forgettable post-season series loss.
Forget about their records in October, all three pitchers deserve at least two World Series rings if not three or four.
August 31st, 201110:06 am
Mitchell (August 31st, 2011 9:37 am): “Merriam-Webster Definition of SATIATE (transitive verb):
“To satisfy (as a need or desire) fully or to excess”
So it wasn’t the spellchecker after all — just an inexperienced or unskilled thesaurus browser.
PS: You’re welcome.
August 31st, 201110:07 am
The Braves have been noted as having the best total pitching staff in the NL and possibly MLB. But since the All-Star Break the ERA’s for the Teams headed to the playoffs are…
Brewers – 2.87
Phillies – 3.24
Braves – 3.79
Right now the Braves team ERA is the worst of the probable Playoff Teams, since the Break.
August 31st, 201110:10 am
Glavine was nails in 95 postseason!
August 31st, 201110:12 am
In August, the Phillies’ ERA is 2.75, Brewers’ 2.77, D-Backs’ 3.29, Braves’ 3.86
Before we write Jurrjens’ obit or other Braves’ starting pitchers’ obits, let’s move well into September, shall we?
And what is it with the Gnats playing the Braves like a fiddle? Some teams just have other teams numbers, I guess.
Shaun – BABIP be damned.
He’s averaged 6 hits per game in both the first 11 and the past 12 games.
In Jurrjens first 11 starts he walked 11 batters and gave up four HRs. IN the past 12 games, he’s walked 33 batters and given up nine HRs.
August 31st, 201110:13 am
Yes, a glaring problem. I probably would have expected to that stat to be worse. Is that starters’ ERA or whole team, because if it’s whole team, then they have some relievers keeping that # respectable.
They’ve got to get back on track to win in playoffs. Like I said before, I think the team may be getting into backup plan mode
August 31st, 201110:15 am
Whoa!!!! Shaun you can’t just jump in like that you have to play your theme song first!!
August 31st, 201110:17 am
August 31st, 201110:18 am
Lew, I can’t believe you went there.. Shaun was baiting the hook and you took a bite. He does nothing but troll day in and day out looking for attention. I don’t think I’ve ever seen someone as starved for attention as Shaun is, I’m guessing he doesn’t get much attention from home.
August 31st, 201110:19 am
@Shaun (August 31st, 2011 9:59 am) –
Don’t count your chickens, especially if you feel like crowing.
The season’s not over yet — it’s still a little early to claim “I told you so.”
August 31st, 201110:20 am
JJ’s location was aweful last night.. any time you leave a hanging pitching up and over the plate, your going to get hurt.
August 31st, 201110:21 am
How many post season starts are made by Braves pitcher(s) who were not part of the original rotation?
August 31st, 201110:22 am
I was watching the Braves feed and Jurrjens fastball was varying between 88-92. He didn’t throw that many 92, but his velocity appeared to be what it was before the break.
Jurrjens threw a bunch of hanging breaking balls and the gNats hit them.
Jurrjens hasn’t been consistent since his knee started barking. He’ll get it back together.
Huddy and Lowe have both gone through stretches like this as well. I wouldn’t get too upset.
The Braves opponent last night, who stymied the Braves all night, looked like a kitten in his previous start against the Braves. Pitchers who rely on location and movement can look very bad one night and outstanding the next.
That was the entire team ERA Hugo. And Mudge’s 10:12 post of August ERA’s amongst the four teams show an even worse trend for the Braves Pitching.
August 31st, 201110:23 am
Martin Prado is now down to a 97 OPS+. Not a banner year for Martin.
On teams’ ERA … as long as the Braves September/October ERA is tops on the list, August can go pound salt.
JJ performed like an end of the rotation guy for the whole season? That’s crack-smoking talk.
August 31st, 201110:24 am
Great show last night at Variety. Tight, high-energy performance, as usual. What a terrific band to see live.
August 31st, 201110:26 am
I agree with Mitchell’s awesome response to DS1 regarding 2010 Braves versus 2011 Braves. If the Braves stagger through September 2011 the way they did in September 2010, I’ll be extremely disappointed. They have too much talent to play the way they have done in the last two games.
I expect they’ll come out tonight with a little more fire in their bellies.
August 31st, 201110:29 am
abeeeewright, No one is saying the ERA can’t go up in September but the trend for the last couple of months is alarming compared to Pre All_Star Break.
August 31st, 201110:30 am
Jurrjens is 1-3 with a 6.17 ERA and .323 opp avg in four Aug. starts, with 31 H, 5 HR, 11 BB, 6 K in 23-1/3 inn.
Beyond yikes: He has allowed 9 homers in 36-1/3 inn. of past 6 starts, after allowing 5 HRs in 115-2/3 inn. of first 17 starts.
yeah, so you’ve got ERAs like Kimbrell’s and Venters’s masking the falloff that we’ve seen to some extent.
I think the whole thing is pretty much due to injuries with JJ and Hanson. They were the top numbers guys for the Braves first half. Then Lowe’s had a couple of ugly outings, but i think he did first half too. Don’t know the stats, but i think Lowe’s probably been better in the 2nd half. The good news is that JJ and Hanson are proven guys. It’s possible they could return to form before the playoffs. If so, ERA don’t matter…
August 31st, 201110:31 am
Sounds like a wild night for the Lynchburg Hillcats last night. Here’s a quick recap of the fireworks:
The Nationals tied the game on in the fourth inning. With Zach Walters on first and Steven Souza on third, Chris Masters threw a pitch that hit the dirt. The ball skipped slightly away from (Christian) Bethancourt, and Walters started to head towards second. Bethancourt quickly got to the ball and threw down to second, Walters stopped and Souza took off from third. The throw came back to the plate, and when Souza got there, he leveled Bethancourt, knocking him off his feet and knocking the ball out of his glove. Souza scored and Bethancourt, who didn’t move for nearly a minute, had to leave the game.
The game got wild in the fifth inning. The Nationals scored two runs to take a 4-2 lead, but the story was the action in between plays. Early in the inning, catcher Shawn McGill, who entered the game for Bethancourt, was hit in the head on an accidental backswing by hitter Francisco Soriano. McGill had to leave the game and the third catcher of game, Ryan Query had to come in.
Souza came to the plate with a runner on after the two runs came in. Masters threw a fastball that hit him, and Souza took a step towards Masters and said something. Masters started yelling back, walking off the mound towards the plate, and the benches and bullpens cleared. No punches were thrown, but several players had to be physically restrained. When players were finally separated, both Masters and Hillcats reliever Eliecer Cardenas were ejected from the game, and no Nationals players were ejected. After a long delay where all three Lynchburg coaches were arguing, reliever Ryan Buchter sprinted down from the bullpen and got in the face of home plate umpire John Bacon, and was ejected as well.
August 31st, 201110:32 am
Hugo, I agree that the Starting Pitching can get better. Fans should hope. You don,t want to go into October Baseball Under Armed.
August 31st, 201110:34 am
“They have too much talent to play the way they have done in the last two games.”
The problem is that much of that talent isn’t healthy right now. Especially when you consider that our two early Cy Young candidates (dudes we said got snubbed at the All Star break – one for not starting, the other for not making it), have had terrible results for over a month.
I don’t disagree that we have talent. We do..
But with JJ stinking and Hanson out, that leaves us with pretty much Tim Hudson, Lowe and a bunch of young guys that the Braves don’t appear to want to pile innings on and ask them to carry the team through this rough stretch (which I get to an extent).
Sadly, we have the talent in the system at AAA to probably temporarily absorb the loss of Jurrjens and Hanson for all or most of September. But I doubt Frank will choose to use it for more than a spot start here and there.
August 31st, 201110:35 am
Jurrjens was due for regression.
I agree that he was due for a regression when his ERA was in the 1’s. But, a normal regression would mean that he’d pitch to (for example) a 3.5 ERA, not to a 7 (or whatever it is the last handful of games).
This is more than a regression; it’s a slump. Not to say it’s the end of the world, of course.
We assume that because these guys (JJ, Prado, Heyward, etc) are back from the DL, and that they say they aren’t in pain, they should be back to maximum effectiveness.
Just because they’re “over” their injuries doesn’t mean that their rhythm, mechanics, overall fitness, etc, are where they should be. A great luxury to have a large enough lead that we can (hopefully) work them through it.
August 31st, 201110:36 am
JURRJENS has little snap on that sinker. He had trouble locating all evening. He was missing with the fastball unless he took a little off. Whenever he threw 90+ he was invariably out of the strike zone, so hitters just kept waiting on the breaking stuff. When he located for the most part, he was fat in the zone, and they tagged it.
Is this team going to limp into the playoffs like last year? Starting to feel like a few guys peaked a little early and are now coming back down to earth, especially on the SP side of things.
If they hold on and win the Wild Card, who do they put into the playoff rotation? JJ is getting shelled, Lowe can’t make it past 5 innings anymore, Hanson is hurt… so who?
1. Hudson – Feels like Huddy is on track and back to form after a mediocre start.
2. Beachy – If his head is in the game I think Beachy could prove to be a great playoff pitcher.
The team needs to get Teheran and Delgado some regular starts down the stretch to properly evaluate how tired their arms are and if they have the pitches and mental ability to pitch in the playoffs. Minor is so inconsistent that I can’t see them giving him the ball in the playoffs, but he is showing some signs of life lately. If he continues to improve he might be a candidate.
Maybe Lowe will rise to the occasion if forced to pitch a playoff game. Maybe JJ will shake off the rust and show some signs of being the same JJ from the first half of the season. I worry that Hanson will be a lost cause for the rest of ‘11.
The one thing that I wasn’t all that worried about, starting pitching, now has me more worried than hitting going into September.
August 31st, 201110:39 am
JRW…yep, worrisome situatin right now. It’ll be a shame if this team gets blown up in the post season without their best 2 starters (although Huddy’s been good enough that he may have surpassed them as the ace even if they were healthy). Even worse will be if these guys do pitch, and they get blown up not pitching like themselves.
Jurrjens is 1-3 with a 6.17 ERA and .323 opp avg in four Aug. starts, with 31 H, 5 HR, 11 BB, 6 K in 23-1/3 inn.
August 31st, 201110:40 am
No, but not terribly far away from what he normally produces.
Hillbilly, thanks for that link. That stuff makes me laugh.
Minor is so inconsistent that I can’t see them giving him the ball in the playoffs, but he is showing some signs of life lately.
The team has won all seven of his regular-rotation starts, I believe. His ERA is a trifle inflated from some reliever-inherited runs scoring. I’m actually starting to like the guy a little, especially since he started throwing his changeup with conviction.
August 31st, 201110:41 am
Efrim – Any time a pitcher triples the number of batters walked and doubles the number of HRs given up, the results will not be pretty.
Team needs to win tonight to secure another 17 win month.
August 31st, 201110:42 am
I see that Berkman cleared waivers… just saying…
MikeInFl, great post.
You can look at your last paragraph on either side of the coin. You say the large wild card lead allows them to “work through it”.
I say, let that large lead allow the kids to pitch with some relative comfort, while Hanson and Jurrjens “work through” their mechanics, stamina and rythym on the side.
Normally, I’d say let them get real “work” in in games. But here’s my thought. If for some reason Hanson doesn’t make it back and/or Jurrjens has to be shut down, I want Delgado and Teheran getting regular real game “work” to be ready if needed.
It’s a hard choice trying to determine who gets the “work” in when you’re preparing for a post-season run. It’s like having a QB dealing with a nagging injury at practice all week. Who gets the snaps? If the starter is out, then the backup didn’t get any work in. If the backup takes all the snaps and the starter is able to go on Sunday, then he might be rusty. Only so much work to go around for everybody, so I hope that Wren and Fredi are being honest with themselves when discussing who looks playoff ready once that time gets here.
I really don’t think Teheran or Delgado will be getting a postseason start…
August 31st, 201110:43 am
Lowe went seven in his last start. Looked pretty good in his last 2. Lack of hitting, like you said, lost Lowe’s last game.
I think Teheran and Delgado are scheduled to start games on Sept. 8, a double header against the Mets. I think the management is on the same page as you, and I am too. Somebody check me on that? I know i’m not the most informed of those on here…
scoots – The Braves are 8-2 in MInor’s starts. They lost two of his first three starts this year and have won the past seven straight.
August 31st, 201110:44 am
True, .300/.350/.450ish is what I expect from Prado. And it’ll look even better at third base in 2013….
Minor is a solid #3, imo.
Efrim, I agree, but if given the choice between a burned-out Lowe or injured Hanson and a fresh Teheran or Delgado, I’d have a hard time at least not considering one of the rookies.
Nobody will even remember those four starts next year. They’ll look at his season numbers and marvel.
Now, if he follows up with four similar September starts, they might start to stick in the memory a little, LOL.
August 31st, 201110:46 am
@ncscoots (August 31st, 2011 8:42 am) –
Yeah, it looked to me too that JJ was the victim of a handful of questionable calls on balls low in the strike zone.
If by “Nobody” you mean Jon Daniels, Brian Cashman, Theo Epstein, Dave Dombrowski, [insert AL GM], then great…
August 31st, 201110:49 am
Murph, I’d rather go with Minor than Teheran/Delgado. Wouldn’t take me long to figure that either. Both Julio and Randall got some stuff to work on and I think Minor is more major league ready.
August 31st, 201110:50 am
If by “Nobody” you mean
Well, GMs, probably better than anyone, know that “feel” pitchers are prone to periods of “no feel”, if you will. It’s all in how the pitcher is able to recover and how quickly that makes them either more or less valuable.
August 31st, 201110:52 am
Would anyone be interested in a trade involving JJ for Moustakas? hypothetical.
August 31st, 201110:54 am
I’d rather go with Minor than Teheran/Delgado. Wouldn’t take me long to figure that either.
I’m with you, at least, for today. If it’s goes catastrophic, I can live with Hudson/Beachy/Minor/Lowe. It wouldn’t be my first choice, but it wouldn’t cause me to lie down and whimper, either.
“I really don’t think Teheran or Delgado will be getting a postseason start…”
I don’t either efrim, but if both Hanson and JJJ are out (in the event that Hanson doesn’t return and it eventually is disclosed that JJJ is hurting),….. it doesn’t mean that they should be.
I seriously doubt that Mike Minor will get any post-season starts. Again, doesn’t mean he shouldn’t get the nod over Lowe. I suspect that Fredi will go into the playoffs riding his “horses” Hudson and Lowe. With Beachy being #3 or #4 if Jurrjens is in the rotation.
How scary is that to think about? We’ll probably play the Brewers who (right now) are clicking on all gears, and we might have Lowe and Jurrjens pitching 2 of the first 3 games of a 5 game series.
Maybe Fredi should go unconventional and use the bullpen in reverse in playoff games.
Start Kimbrel every game, with Venters pitching the 2nd inning, O’Flaherty the 3rd, if Moylan is back he can have the 4th inning, Vizcaino can pitch the 5th and 6th and then only ask Lowe and Jurrjens to have to lock down 3 innings.
Or better yet, put Delgado and Teheran on the active roster and let them pitch the 7th and 8th innings.
Then Minor, Beachy and Lowe can get “saves” pitching the 9th.
Hudson of course can start his game (so the bullpen guys can rest).
Come on Fredi!!! Think outside the box. LOL
August 31st, 201110:55 am
Efrim, what do you make of Jose Lugo and his performance in AA? Not sure of his age, but since he has come out of nowhere he might be too old to be considered a real prospect?
Correct me if I’m wrong, but wouldn’t Teheran and Delgado have to be on the 25-man roster tonight (or tomorrow a.m., whatever) in order to be eligible for the post-season? And to do that, we’d have to remove 2 players from the 25-man to make room?
Seems to me that they will be useful in September when the rosters are expanded to 40, but not even a factor (not available) for the playoffs. Am I wrong?
August 31st, 201110:56 am
Now the Braves get ready to blow the wild card
August 31st, 201110:57 am
Nice game from Jason last night. He managed to get 2 RBIs even though he was hitting between the worst hittter in MLB and the pitcher. Jason is now hitting .280 over his last 25 at-bats with 1 homer and 8 RBIs. Hopefully Fredi realizes this and puts him back in the starting lineup permanently.
Are you sure that’s optimal?
August 31st, 201110:58 am
Wren only has about 13 hours to beg Billy Wagner to come back and be eligible for the post-season roster. LOL
If we had Wags and got Moylan back, adding them to the bullpen, our starters might never have to think about adjusting and seeing the batting order a 3rd time through. Let it all hang out for 5 innings and turn it over to the pen.
OK back to reality. Sorry.
MikeinFl – I think they’re already eligible since they’ve pitched this year for the Braves. If I’m not mistaken, any service time prior to Sept. 1 counts
August 31st, 201110:59 am
Lew, look at his hits per 9 innings, not hits per game. Hits per game tells us nothing because he’s pitching fewer innings per game. He’s absolutely giving up hits at a higher rate, on a per 9 innings basis.
Also, no one is denying he’s also fundamentally pitching worse. The point is that everyone should have expected some regression because, even in the first half when he was fundamentally pitching a little better, he wasn’t as good as he ERA or RA indicated.
Are you sure that’s optimal?
Not if you’re pitching for the save. All managers are wrong.
August 31st, 201111:00 am
Yeah, Shaun, whatever. The difference is three ties the batters walked and double the amount of HR’s given up. Period.
August 31st, 201111:01 am
Lew, everything I read follows this track:
To be eligible for a team’s playoff roster a player must be on either a)the 25 man active roster, b)the disabled list, c)the bereavement list, d)the suspended list as of August 31st at midnight.
August 31st, 201111:02 am
Random, the point is that his underlying performance indicated that Jurrjens was an solid mid-rotation or back-end starter, even in the first half. No one should be that shocked with what’s gone on, unless you ignore underlying performance. Many probably do; they just look at stats, very basic stats and not the ones that tell them about underlying performance. That’s why those folks thought Jurrjens was something like a poor man’s Maddux.
scoots, my biggest “fear” is that that trio of pitchers are left sitting in the bullpen with little to no impact on the 5 games series because Lowe and Jurrjens get pounded by that Brewers lineup.
That would be a crime shame, considering the impact they’ve had on this team.
Meanwhile, I envision a game 4 being started by Randy Wolf where we are fighting for our playoff lives (at home of course), where he makes us look like a AA lineup facing Randy Johnson on a rehab assignment.
This team is so up and down with it’s consistency, that one can only hope that we’re on one of those hot streaks the day the playoffs starts. There is plenty of “talent” on this roster to win the whole damn thing.
There is also enough things going poorly (right now) that suggest we’re not going to go very far when the whole thing starts.
August 31st, 201111:04 am
Mike – If that were the case, who are you going to remove from the roster to add them?
Lew, is that per game or per inning/per 9 innings? Again, per game means nothing because he’s not throwing the same number of innings each game. Give us the per 9 inning numbers.
August 31st, 201111:05 am
Mike & Lew, I think they do have to be on the active (remember rosters can expand) roster as of midnight tonight. However, I believe that as long as they are on the 40 man roster, they could replace an injured player at the same position.
Meaning if Jurrjens goes down, any one of the minor league pitchers could replace him on the post-season roster. However, if Jurrjens goes down, they can’t replace him with Tyler Pastornicky on the playoff roster. That would require another middle infielder being injured.
August 31st, 201111:06 am
Lew, as I said, I don’t think Teheran and Delgado will be available in the post-season. Braves may surprise and dfa Linebrink, or send Martinez down…. but it would have to be done tonight. Obviously, I don’t know what they’re thinking. My point is that those saying the prospects will be factors in the playoffs may be disappointed.
I’m not sure any team would start a rookie with fewer than 3 games started in the majors in the playoffs. Fredi would have to completely scramble the rotation and give one or the other 4 September starts. That doesn’t sound like Fredi (see Jason Heyward).
Team really looked bad last night. The three day vacation really hurt them. They must have lost their focus on baseball. Lets hope things better tonight.
August 31st, 201111:08 am
From what I’ve read, i thought it was settled that Teheran and Delgado would be on the team come playoff time. Am I an idiot? Wait, don’t answer that. Am i wrong?
Speaking of vacations. DOB just had a weekend off, noe he is taking more time off?
August 31st, 201111:09 am
Shaun – It’s immaterial whether or not its per game or per nine. He’s walked three times as many batters and given up twice as many HRs.
Sometimes the answer is on the surface and sub atomic analysis is unnecessary.
I think the intelligent folks around the game will look at his underlying performance and see that his on-the-surface numbers don’t match up and realize he’s likely to be a decent 3-4.
Glad to have Carroll, she is good
August 31st, 201111:11 am
The Brewers have scored 197 runs since the all-start game, 4th in the National League (Phillies are 2nd at 212). The Braves have scored 186, 9th place but close to the Brewers’ number, and no one here is talking about a Braves offensive juggernaut. The Brewers are doing well because their pitching has greatly improved, in spite of a regression of their offense.
August 31st, 201111:12 am
I think you are right.
August 31st, 201111:13 am
Meanwhile, I envision a game 4 being started by Randy Wolf where we are fighting for our playoff lives
Well, of course, you will, LOL. You’re N8. I’m not sure you’re genetically capable of visualizing it any other way.
August 31st, 201111:16 am
Shaun, who gives a rats ass how many he’s given up per inning? What a stupid question. We’re not talking about season totals or comparing one season from the next. If that were the case, then YES. Search out the HR/9inning totals.
Here’s the bottom line, tell me if the innings really matter in this “stat”
Jair’s first 17 starts of the season: 5 total HR allowed.
Jair’s last 6 starts: 9 HR allowed.
Do the math. It’s not that tough. But in case you really feel you need the ratio.
In his first 17 starts (127.2 IP), his ratio was 0.35 HR every 9 IP (or 1 HR every 25 innings or so).
In his last 6 starts (36.1 IP), his ration was 2.22 HR every 9 IP (or 1 HR every 4 innings or so).
So you’re right. Lew was way off. He hasn’t doubled his HR allowed…… It’s much worse than that.
Stop being an ass for the sake of being an ass.
Hugo (August 31st, 2011 10:30 am): “Then Lowe’s had a couple of ugly outings, but i think he did first half too. Don’t know the stats, but i think Lowe’s probably been better in the 2nd half.”
Nope — he has been worse in July and August than he was Mar — Jun.
Shaun, doesn’t the fact that JJ didn’t start “regressing” until he got hurt taint your argument? Why would anyone expect him to produce like he’s a 100 percent when he’s not?
August 31st, 201111:17 am
mikeinfl – I think there is an exception to the rule if you put someone on the current 25 man roster on the DL
August 31st, 201111:20 am
its easy to scroll past Shaun but when I have to start scrolling past Lew/N8/1/2 the other posts cause they are arguing with him its about time to let the blog rest for a bit LOL
random – how much worse? do you have the stats? I’m curious not trying to be argumentative (I feel like I have to qualify that for some reason)
August 31st, 201111:22 am
There’s an article by Carroll Rogers called “Braves’ major developments in the minors”. Posted two days ago. Don’t see it online, but have it on an app on my phone. It says, quote: “More reinforcements are on the way when rosters expand Thursday. Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said Delgado and Teheran will be among the callups.”
Sound like a done deal to me. Has anyone else read this? Am i missing something or misunderstanding the situation?
I know scoots. But seriously look me in the “blog eye” and tell me that you think this team is playing like a team that’s going to go into Milwaukee and steal home field advantage by winning a game, and then come home and take care of business.
I’m not asking you if you think they CAN. I’m asking you if you think they WILL.
I do however, realize that things can and will change in a month. Maybe the Brewers have an injury? Maybe they simply cool off? Maybe Hanson comes back strong as can be? Maybe Heyward goes on a tear? Hard to say.
But from my angle, it’s looking a little hairy right now.
But having said that, the 95 Braves went 16-12 in September (and one regular season game in October), while scoring 119 runs and allowing 111 runs.
So, teams can play ugly in September and then win it all.
August 31st, 201111:23 am
N8 – I think you are right, except I believe any player on the 40 man can replace ANY injured player…I don’t think it has to be same position.
As Monk would say, “I could be wrong…but I don’t think so”.
August 31st, 201111:24 am
tiger, I’m not arguing with shaun.
arguing is trying to convince somebody that they are wrong and to come to your “side” of the argument.
I’m simply telling shaun that he’s wrong.
August 31st, 201111:25 am
you might be right raleiigh, i just don’t remember. DOB posted the rule a while back or his paraphrased version of it. But I don’t feel like trying to find it.
I’m sure when he sees the discussion, he’ll clarify it.
August 31st, 201111:26 am
Shaun = brick wall…so why argue (pointless). It’s easier, and more pleasant, just to scroll past.
August 31st, 201111:27 am
doesn’t the fact that JJ didn’t start “regressing” until he got hurt taint your argument?
Just another inappropriate use of “regression”, is all. “Regression” implies (or should imply) that the player’s results are moving toward his true talent level. Poor results due to health should not be part of that equation, since such implies that the degradation is NOT due to talent level.
In Jurrjens’ particular case, poor results prior to his DL stint is not “regression”. Poor results after returning from the DL probably are. But you could just as easily say that he’s due to “regress” from this bad patch to his actual norms, too.
One should not let coincidence form the foundation of an argument for cause and effect. It’s bound to make one look foolish, at some point.
good point. You could predict that anyone (who is having success) is going to regress. Very few retire in the prime of their performance. The trick is predicting it before it happens. Shaun just gets off on arguing. What are supposed to think? JJ is healthy again, but his 13 win first half run of UNBELIEVABLY consistent and elite LUCK has finally run out and revealed him as the this terrible bottom of the rotation guy? He’s smoking crack…
August 31st, 201111:29 am
N8 – I guess it’s moot, because if Teheran or Delgado are added, it will be for an injured pitcher, I assume.
August 31st, 201111:30 am
Shaun – His first 11 games started, he gave up 7.2 H/9 in the next 12, he gave up 9 H/9. Hardly enough difference to account for the fact that he’s given up 16ER his first 11 starts and 34 ER the next 12.
Like I said – 3 times the walks and twice the number of HR. And again, like I said – sub atomic analysis is unnecessary. Sometimes it is just what it looks like on the surface. More walks and more HR resulting in more ER.
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