Will Braves sign Bourn to big extension? Should they?
The Braves had been looking for a dynamic leadoff man since Rafael Furcal left after the 2005 season, and they had lacked a superb center fielder (who could stay healthy) since Andruw Jones left a couple of years later.
Bourn, a two-time Gold Glove winner, has made a few brilliant plays in center field since being traded to the Braves on July 31.
In Michael Bourn, they have both Furcal and Andruw. And have neither of them. Because while he brings some of the best attributes of those two, including strong defense and big-time disruption on the bases, he is also unlike either of them in other ways.
With Bourn eligible for free agency after the 2012 season, the question becomes: What is he worth? And probably more importantly, what will his agent, Scott Boras, think he’s worth? (We can assume the Boras initial asking price will be a deal of at least five years with an annual salary far higher than any team thinks he’s worth, then go from there.)
Bourn is making $4.4 million this season and eligible for arbitration once more next spring, so unless he signs a long-term deal I’d expect him to get a raise to at least $6.5 million for 2012 through arb. But I’m just speculating; it’s tough to find comparables.
Should the Braves try to sign him to an extension this winter? Lock him up just in case he cranks out another 60-stolen base season in 2012 like he had in ’09, with a plus-.300 average like he has this season? Or risk losing him as a free agent if Boras finds that one team that believes it when Boras tells them Bourn is the difference-maker, the missing piece, for that team? That happens.
Also consider that the Braves don’t have any center fielders in their system who appear to be even close to major league-ready in a year or two. For those reasons, and for fact he’s fit in well and given them pretty much exactly what they were hoping for since coming over in a July 31 trade, I’m pretty sure the Braves will discuss a possible extension with Boras and Bourn this winter.
Now, just try finding a current player in the majors similar to Bourn in order to draw a comparison. I couldn’t. Others who steal anywhere near the number of bases he does, don’t hit for power, but get a lot of doubles, triples. Have multiple Gold Gloves.
Some other leadoff hitters steal fewer bases, in the 30-40 range, but with more power and/or higher OBPs.
Curiously, Baseball-Reference.com’s “similarity scores” to denote players similar to Bourn list Alex Cole, Bert Daniels and Rube Ellis as the first three, and for players similar to Bourn through age 27 (Bourn turned 28 after last season), Baseball Reference lists Brett Butler as the most comparable, followed by Bill North, Max Flack and Rudy Law.
If you notice, these are all players from different eras. A few of them played nearly a century ago, and all but one of the others had their heyday in the ‘70s and ‘80s.
There are not many contemporaries than compare to Bourn, a throwback to eras when it was enough for a leadoff hitter and/or center fielder to have exceptional speed and hit for a good average.
In the past couple of decades, leadoff hitters, like most others, stopped stealing as many bases and started hitting more homers.
Bourn would have fit in with the Rube Ellis-era St. Louis teams around 1910 — or with Terry Pendleton’s St. Louis teams of the mid-1980s. T.P.’s Cardinals squads had Ozzie Smith, Vince Coleman and Willie McGee hitting just a few homers apiece while stealing 40, 50 or more bases apiece. And in the case of Coleman, many more steals than that.
Bourn is hitting.302 with a .359 OBP and 47 steals in 129 games, with, 29 doubles, seven triples, two homers, 43 RBIs and 79 runs. In 79 games since May 30, he’s hit .326 with a .374 OBP and 29 steals.
In Baseball America’s annual survey of major league managers for the recent “Best Tools” issue, Bourn was rated the NL’s best baserunner, its fastest baserunner, and its best defensive outfielder.
So again, what do you pay a guy like that in today’s game? The only guy who made well into eight-digit salary annually while stealing tons of bases and hitting only 6-8 homers per season that I could think of is Ichiro Suzuki, but they’re really not even comparable.
Ichiro came to the U.S. as a Japanese icon, already 27 and a free agent, and was both the AL MVP and Rookie of the Year in his first season with the Mariners. He made the All-Star team and won a Gold Glove for 10 consecutive seasons before this one, and finished in the top 20 in MVP balloting seven times.
The B raves haven't had a base stealer comparable to Bourn since Rafael Furcal, and Furcal never came close to 61 steals.
Ichiro has also had over 200 hits every year in the majors until this one, and led the AL in hits a stunning seven times in his first 10 seasons. He’s a .327 career hitter with a .422 OBP and.793 OPS, to Bourn’s .272/.338 with .697 OPS.
The only area where Bourn’s topped him is steals, and even there Ichiro has stolen more than 30 bases for 11 consecutive seasons, once led the AL with 56, and stole more than 40 three other times. He also has had seasons with 13, 15 and 11 home runs.
Again, they’re not even comparable players. Ichiro was a game-changing player like no other of his skills in this era.
Not that anyone was comparing them, but if they did it would be silly. By the way, Ichiro is in the fourth season of a five-year, $90 million contract extension.
A far more apt comparison would be Juan Pierre. So let’s do that:
Pierre signed a five-year, $44 million contract with the Dodgers after the 2006 season. That contract was/is viewed as one of the worst that any team gave out then or since – a deal so bad the Dodgers paid a good chunk of it to have the White Sox take the player and the deal off their hands after the ’09 season.
Of course, if he’d produced in recent years like he had before, it wouldn’t have been viewed so harshly in retrospect.
In that ’06 season before he got the deal, Pierre hit .292 with a .330 OBP and .717 OPS at age 28 with the Cubs, with 58 stolen bases, 45 extra-base hits, three homers. Numbers not unlike Bourn in recent seasons.
The difference is, Pierre had turned in six strong seasons before getting that contract, six seasons in which he’d stolen 45 or more bases, batting .287 or higher in four of them and with an OBP of .360 or higher in three.
In 2004, for example, Pierre hit .326 with a career-high .374 OBP, .781 OPS and 45 steals. And he’d stolen 65 bases the year before that, in 2003 with Florida.
This is only the third season in which Bourn has hit for a good average and OBP as an every-day player.
So yes, Pierre is actually a closer comparison, but he had better – or longer — credentials going to free agency. And again, that deal has been widely regarded as a bad one, even more as Pierre’s numbers declined in subsequent seasons.
Pierre is making $8.5 mill this season, still in that contract he signed with the Dodgers. His highest salary was $10 mill in 2009.
How much do you want to bet that Boras asks for more than Pierre got? Maybe a lot more.
How high would you go if you were the Braves? Would you offer $8 mill per season in a five-year deal for a guy who doesn hit for power, but does a lot of other things and steals bases better than anyone in the league? I don’t even know if Boras would even consider that salary, but would you offer it if you were the Braves?
Getting back to the two Braves referenced earlier, Andruw and Furcal.
One-time Brave Brett Butler is the most similar player to Bourn, according to a formula used by Baseball Reference.
Bourn certainly doesn’t hit home runs like Andruw Jones, but Andruw didn’t steal many bases, at least not after 2000. Home runs get the big salaries, as we know, and he knew when he bulked up and started swinging for the fences.
Furcal only stole as many as 30 bases two times in six seasons with the Braves, and stole more than 40 just once. Bourn leads the National League with 47 steals this season, after leading the league with 52 in 2010 and 61 in 2009.
However, Furcal also averaged nearly 14 homers during his final three seasons with the Braves, slugging .443, .414 and .429 in those seasons. Bourn has a .359 career slugging percentage, and his .394 this season is his best. He slugged .346 in 2010, .384 in ’09.
Bourn is not as good defensively as Andruw in his prime – how many in history have been? – but he’s won Gold Gloves each of the past two seasons and will probably win another this year. Bourn is a very good defensive center fielder.
Furcal, in his time with the Braves, hit as high as .285 only twice, and posted an OBP as high as .350 only twice. Bourn has hit .302 with a .359 OBP this season, and hit .285 with a .354 OBP in 2009 (he slipped to .265/.341 in ’10).
Bourn is 28, and appears to be getting better (think about that – he’s only a year older than Ichiro was when Ichiro came to the U.S. in 2001. But there I go comparing him to Ichiro again, when there really is no comparison between the two.)
Furcal came to the majors at 22 (officially, at least) and played his last season with Atlanta at 27.
Going back to the original Baseball Reference comparison players, Brett Butler is one that some Braves fans are familiar with. He started his career as a Brave, but only played parts of three seasons for Atlanta and didn’t become a standout until later.
By the way, Butler was a bit of a freak like Ichiro in that he played till he was 40, and had some of his best seasons in his early and mid-30s. At age 34 in ’91 with the Dodgers, Butler led the league in games played (161) and plate appearances (730).
At age 35, Butler hit .309 with a .413 OBP and 41 stolen bases.
If you’re going to sign a player to a long-term deal, generally it’s the smaller, fitter players who are a better bet to stay healthy and viable for the length of the contract. Then again, Nate McLouth is not exactly a good example for that.
But in general that rule holds true. And so, Bourn might be a better bet than most who are signed to a deal that carries them to age 32 or 33.
Would you do it? If it took $8 million or more per season in a five-year deal? Would it be worth it to have leadoff and center field pretty well covered for the next five seasons?
Personally, I think so. But I also know that Boras might think his guy is worth more than that, perhaps worth more than any player of comparable production (of which there are few os his particular skill set, as we discussed).
By the way, Butler obvioiusly played the game in a entirely different financial era, but just out of curiosity, take a guess at the highest salary he ever made.
Keep in mind, he finished in the top-25 in National League MVP balloting six times in seven seasons from 1988-94, including an All-Star season in ’91 when he hit .296 with a .401 OBP and league-leading totals in walks (108) and runs (112).
He was seventh in the MVP balloting that season, and made just over $2.8 million.
Butler made about $24 million in his entire 17-year career, with a one-year high of $3.5 million.
♣ OK, let’s close with an apropos classic from James McMurtry. And please keep in your thoughts or prayers all those Virginians, New Englanders and others who are still suffering in the flooding and other aftermath of Hurricane Irene. You can hear this tune by clicking here.
“HURRICANE PARTY” by James McMurtry
The hurricane party’s windin’ down and we’re all waitin’ for the end
And I don’t won’t another drink, I only want that last one again
He gave me such a fine glow, smokin’ slow, now I should probably be homeward bound
There’s just no one to talk to when the lines go down
I guess that in the morning I’ll go lookin’ for my gray-striped cat
My old house can take the weather so I’m not too concerned about that
It was built to take the wind back in nineteen-and-ten when this was one damned fine town
But now there’s no one to talk to when the lines go down
Candles flickered on the back bar and the building was shakin’ with the wind
I bought a whiskey for the gypsy and she turned my leather back into skin
Just a fleeting sense of that rare suspense I once thought made the world go round
But now there’s no one to talk to when the lines go down
Open up your back screen door
Let me see your face once more
My hands are cold and my feet so sore
And I can’t go on this way
And the thoughts come too fast and too many to keep count, best just to let ‘em on through
Now I’m breaking those glass insulators with my old 22
Off the telephone polls as a half dollar rolls across the knuckles of a rodeo clown
There’s just no one to talk to when the lines go down
My one great love, my God, I can feel her still
She ran off to California and now she’s living in those Hollywood hills
With some bullfrog prince, I’ve not seen her since
Though she calls when he’s out of town
And there’s no one to talk to when the lines go down
Open up your back screen door
Let me in your space once more
I was looking for an easy score
But it just don’t work that way
Some insurance man-biker is yellin’ out for one more beer
But a part-time pirate just can’t get much respect around here
We got our problems too, man we’ll get to you
In just a minute, sit your drunk ass down
Yeah, there’s no one to talk to when the lines go down
Now there’s water up past the wheel wells of my
Ford and I don’t guess that it’ll run
But I left a pack of Winston’s on the dash, could you fetch ‘em for me son?
The morning’s first cigarette, that’s as good as it gets all day I should know by now
But there’s no one to talk to when the lines go down
– David O’Brien, Braves/MIB blog
1,264 comments Add your comment
Venice Jim
August 28th, 2011
11:02 pm
Thanks, DOB!!!
Najeh Davenpoop
August 28th, 2011
11:08 pm
Since there is no salary cap in MLB, how big a “big” extension is really just depends on how much the Braves are willing to spend in overall payroll. As long as giving Bourn an extension doesn’t conflict with their ability to keep Freeman/McCann/Heyward around when their contracts expire or are up for negotiation, pay the man and keep him around.
Kimbrel rocks
August 28th, 2011
11:11 pm
YES SIGN HIM LIKE yesterday
David O'Brien
August 28th, 2011
11:13 pm
Fixed the link to McMurtry song now, if you want to go back and click it. Great tune by one of my favorite artists.
Ryan
August 28th, 2011
11:15 pm
Michael Bourn will not become a free agent until after the 2012 season.
bruce
August 28th, 2011
11:16 pm
Lots of money, don’t really know what to think, we’ve got the highest paid secondbaseman, not sure how it all adds up and still pay for the other players, but he is a difference-maker and it really is fun to have one like him on the team.
Venice Jim
August 28th, 2011
11:17 pm
And True Blood ends with a very new version of “Burning Down the House” – definitely not the Talking Heads…
Kimbrel rocks
August 28th, 2011
11:17 pm
i think if the braves are going to be a WS contender for a couple of years Bourn will make the decision to stay here. let’s not forget it is HIS decision at the end of the day. the fans, players, and organization truly appreciate his skill set. that goes a long way. and he is a southern boy……i think he’s saying in ATL with the other country boys (and warm weather)
David O'Brien
August 28th, 2011
11:18 pm
In Baseball America’s annual midseason survey of major league managers for the recent “Best Tools” issue, Bourn was rated the NL’s best baserunner, its fastest baserunner, and its best defensive outfielder.
bravobraves
August 28th, 2011
11:19 pm
the Braves need to lock up Bourn. Like stated in the article we have no one MLB ready in our minor league system. As a fan i enjoy watching the thrilling speed he brings on both offense and defense. He is a top 5 leadoff hitter in the MLB and will score more times than not once he reaches. The braves need to give up the money and lock him up with the phillies having a similar player in victorino.
Al Beeski
August 28th, 2011
11:20 pm
Kudos, DOB, on another great article, which really shows the difference in eras and why baseball is such a special sport. Personally, i think u hit the nail on the head when u mentioned that we do not have anyone on the farm who could be a everyday CF. Of course, Boras knows this as well and unfortunately will use that against us. But we DEFINITELY need to keep him if we can get him for under $10 mill/per.
Venice Jim
August 28th, 2011
11:21 pm
DOB – very much enjoying the song – thanks!
bravobraves
August 28th, 2011
11:22 pm
the Braves need to lock up Bourn. Like stated in the article we have no one MLB ready in our minor league system. As a fan i enjoy watching the thrilling speed he brings on both offense and defense. He is a top 5 leadoff hitter in the MLB and will score more times than not once he reaches. The braves need to give up the money and lock him up. The Phillies being our biggest competition in years to come have a dynamic Cf in shane Victorino who i believe has his own league of power speed and defense. SIgning Bourn will make the braves contention with the Phillies much closer.
Clayton H
August 28th, 2011
11:24 pm
Bourn has been worth roughly 5 WAR (per 162 games) according to Fangraphs for each of the last three seasons. 1 WAR is equal to above 5 million dollars per year. Even factoring in some decline (despite the fact that he is entering his peak years), a deal for about 10 million per year would be a huge steal. I’m all for a 4 year deal at 10-11 million dollars per year. No organizational depth and a rare talent who is entering the peak of his career.
The Grinch
August 28th, 2011
11:30 pm
I think we should sign him. He makes the team better on a number of levels, and there isn’t much in the way of alternatives.
Dman
August 28th, 2011
11:30 pm
You forgot that Jorge Constanza could play cf.
Columbus
August 28th, 2011
11:31 pm
Ummm free agent in 2012 right?
The Braves will definitely sign him I believe. He does not hit a lot of homers so how much could he be? 7.5-8 mill?
They want some speed(FINALLY!) and have seen the benefit of it and they have no other significant cash tied up in the outfield already. I think with the extra cash they will have when they do not pick up the option year on McLouth next year, they will resign Bourne. Then with Lowe leaving after 2012 for sure and maybe Chipper too, that frees up 15-29 million for 2013 to help out, along with upping some of the younger guys salaries.
JoshTown
August 28th, 2011
11:31 pm
Thanks for the blog, DOB. Glad everyone made it back home safe, though 3 days of no Braves baseball hasn’t been that fun. Would I sign Bourn? I think in a heartbeat. Not only has re-energized this team, he’s created constant scoring opportunities that have given us the cushion in the WIld Card. Without a good prospect down on the farm, it seems to me it’s the right decision. He can give us what Nate should’ve the last couple of years. And the guys in the clubhouse seem to love him. Has he ever expressed any interest in post-game about wanting to stay, etc?
Hoops Dawg
August 28th, 2011
11:31 pm
I agree with you Mark. If we can get him for 5 years at 40 million, by all means pull the trigger. We’ve seen a very different offense this past month with Bourn and Costanza. Speed wins!!
Feeach
August 28th, 2011
11:37 pm
Amazing stuff Chief! Sign him. Pay him.
Kat
August 28th, 2011
11:43 pm
I assume I’ll be repeating what some others have posted but Bourn has brought something we’ve been missing to Atlanta and as said in the blog we don’t have in the minors. He doesn’t solve all our problems but can one person really do that anyways? I mean maybe but I’m sure if that player existed we’re not the Yankees and we couldn’t afford whomever that would be. But on Micheal, in my ‘expert fan who sits on my couch opinion’ is keep him and try to lock him down as early as you can.
Good song choice — for my first hurricane here up north it wasn’t so awful, no power for a little bit but that was about it along with some other interesting points.
Choppinmama
August 28th, 2011
11:46 pm
The team needs a player like Bourne with speed in the lineup. That’s the piece that has been missing for years, somebody that can worry the opposing pitcher, make the infield throw the ball around trying to catch him.
He’s plenty fast and athletic enough in the outfield, and he can single and double the opposition to death. He seems willing to sacrifice his body for the play, a quality I haven’t seen Jason exhibit yet.
Heck yeah, sign him up.
Ooohh, DOB throws McLouth under the bus…….ouch!!
Around The Horn
August 28th, 2011
11:47 pm
Sign him, but at a reasonable, yet fair amount — and not the kind of exorbitant numbers Boras always seems to push for.
Rick in Dallas
August 28th, 2011
11:47 pm
Mack ” The Knife” Jones ready for a comeback ?
Heyward grounds out to second
August 28th, 2011
11:49 pm
Yes, sign him. He’s a great leadoff hitter, has consistent production, is a stand up guy, has a good glove and amazing speed.
He’s the missing piece of a good line up that makes us great. Lock him up for five years and we will always be a contender as long as our pitching remains good as well. He makes things happen.
TnBrian
August 28th, 2011
11:52 pm
It’s Jose Constanza, and no, he’s a career minor leaguer having flukey success in the bigs. I like him as a 4th OF/ bench player, but Bourn is a sure thing no doubt. I bet Wren goes all out for this guy come his free agency time. Hope so.
ObiWankobe
August 28th, 2011
11:54 pm
When looking for a comparison you missed Willie “Mays” Hayes.
noliee
August 28th, 2011
11:54 pm
I think some team will offer 5/50 or so. not sure he is worth that much.
sure sign him if the price is reasonable. He may continue to improve or he may regress to the mean some.
I don’t think an extension should be automatic, but he seems to be the kinda player that Wren likes so it won’t surprise me if he offers a bit more than he might be worth.
Simpson's Homer
August 28th, 2011
11:56 pm
Absolutely, the Braves should work out a long-term deal for Bourn. When you have an asset that virtually no other team has, you would be foolish to let it slip through your fingers, to join someone like the Phillies, Giants, Mets, Yankees or Red Sox. It’s unlikely to be Pittsburgh or Seattle that signs him after 2012 – it’s likely to be one of our chief obstacles to winning a World Series any time in the next decade!!! Lock him up!
If Jose Constanza continues to play well (anything over .280) in the future, he makes for a great 4th outfielder at worst. If he continues to outhit Heyward vs. lefties by such a large margin, he would be a great option for those situations.
Choppinmama
August 28th, 2011
11:58 pm
DOB – wow! Great topic. Well researched, great comparisons, good insights. One of your best efforts of the season. Isn’t it great when you have a few days to put a story like this together? Kinda like the luxury the pro football guys have to work on their game stories.
We’ll start cracking the whip again tomorrow! More stories, feed the insatiable appetite of blog monster…………
noliee
August 28th, 2011
11:59 pm
down here Irene as a two would just be considered a stiffish breeze, dontcha know?
Seriously glad most have checked in and seem to be ok.
Hope Lew is safe up there.
A bit ironic that some of the worst trouble was created after she dropped to a storm from a hurricane.
You just never know with them damn things
TnBrian
August 29th, 2011
12:01 am
And then when Wren loses out at resigning this guy the nuts will set this place on fire. Like nolie just said though, Bourn is a Wren type player, probably goes overboard some with him. He stays a Brave for many years to come for my prediction.
wes
August 29th, 2011
12:06 am
with kk, nate, lowe, chip soon to be gone we should have the money to sign him. Plus we gave up 4 players to get him which I don’t think they would have done without the intention of signing him long term. But as it is our only hole to fill in the offseason is ss. We need more speed like a reyes or rollins. Not those guys because of injury and age but someone whos game is comparable.
Choppinmama
August 29th, 2011
12:06 am
DOB – very off topic, but what have you been hearing about the movie “Moneyball”? I’ll go see it because it’s about baseball and I can drool over Brad for a couple of hours, but will I come out of the theater satisfied?
Haven’t read the book either, how was it?
noliee
August 29th, 2011
12:12 am
with kk, nate, lowe, chip soon to be gone we should have the money to sign him. …wes
good chance that Chipper and Lowe will not be gone in time to help defray a signing cost for Bourn this winter, especially Chipper.
panamajack
August 29th, 2011
12:14 am
I think I would take my chances and wait and see what he does next year also see what Constanza and Heyward do next year. I have seen too many players get the big long term contract then fizzle afterward. After next season they should have some big bucks available with the retirement of Chipper, Lowe leaving and probably Hudson, lots of money there if we still need a CF and quite possibly they won’t need anything else.
Mister Frisky
August 29th, 2011
12:18 am
Lock it down.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
12:20 am
I think I would take my chances and wait and see what he does next year also see what Constanza and Heyward do next year….panama
Unless he agreed to a surprisingly low deal-highly unlikely wit Boras as his agent- I think I would wait too.
wes
August 29th, 2011
12:20 am
both will be gone after next season when bourns current contract ends. It’s not a given we try to sign him to an ext. This offseason but with kk and nates contracts off the books we should have enough to sign him to a 10m a yr contract.
fastasballs
August 29th, 2011
12:28 am
I’m all for locking him up. He filled a serious void both in CF & as a high OBP guy that the top of the order needed. I’m sure Wren makes a push to sign him long term.
Those of you looking for Chipper to be off the books in short order are probably going to be wrong. I wouldn’t be surprised at this point if he’s not back for 2013 as well. ESPN just post a nice article on Hoss a bit ago, comparing him with the top 5-6 third baseman to ever play the game.
Ward
August 29th, 2011
12:39 am
Hello every one! Why talk about the Bourn signing now? To cause panic until then?We all know Wren will sign him! Why worry about it now? Let’s focus on the race to the Play-Offs…….
Larry
August 29th, 2011
12:39 am
100% YES…contingent upon a fair and reasonable contract terms–if there is such a thing?
After having season tickets for over 20 years I gave them up last season for one primary reason…I had absolutely grown so bored with the Braves “brand” of baseball I no would almost invariably leave the games early and even on TV would fall asleep and often go back and forth between the game and a movie.
The Braves had a well balanced lineup from the early 90’s through about 2001, maybe 2002. The speed in the early/mid 90’s of Otis Nixon, Deion Sanders, Ron Gant, Lonnie Smith, Marquis Grissom and even Terry Pendleton complimented by the power of Sid Bream, David Justice, Brian Hunter, Fred McGriff, for me, was more balanced and much more enjoyable for me and, save for a few bonehead playoff decision by YKW, we have one or two more World Series Championships.
Fast forward to about 1999-2000 and we begin a personality change of less speed and moving to a 3 run homer mentality that would last up until the trade for Bourne at the deadline. It should come as no coincidence that we haven’t come close to a World Series the last 10-11 seasons because of this as our sole dependence on the home run ball could never survive the great pitching in the playoffs. In other words, Bobby Cox’s love affair with the 3 run homer was not only inhibited this team’s versatility in the postseason, it was just painfully boring to wait, and wait, and wait for the big home run!
Meanwhile, other teams were winning the World Series this past decade that could manufacture runs in the postseason both ways: the big, timely home run, and the ability to “manufacture” runs with speed that leads to misplayed balls, stolen bases, hit and runs, etc.
I want Borne and Constanza on this team, and I want us to continue to emphasize speed at all positions as we prepare for this and future seasons where PED’s are no longer over inflating the power game and pitching is expected to dominate the nest several years.
Speed, defense, power, contact.situational hitting–coupled with great pitching–is championship caliber baseball, and personally I haven’t been more excited about the current Braves lineup that can compete in the postseason in about 14-15 years!
Awesome job by Frank Wren, not only getting Bourne, but the price he paid to get him!
As a bonus…Bourne seems to be a really great guy and looks to be well liked and respected by his teammates.
Ward
August 29th, 2011
12:41 am
Worry about Bourn in the Off-Season,and then start focusing on saving money, by cutting players like Agon,and Lowe,and put that money away for a third baseman for the following year.
Braveone
August 29th, 2011
12:43 am
From the previous blog which had 2,644 comments, noliee led the way with 216 posts. There were 186 different poster names. Here are the Top 25:
Rank Poster Frequency
1 noliee 216
2 Tom O’Hawke 159
3 Venice Jim 141
4 McFann :Ô: :Ô: 129
5 cabravesfan 97
6 Efrim 78
7 phil 66
8 Sopheee 64
9 Brava 59
10 Kat 59
11 tiger297 59
12 ncscoots 55
13 Snotboogie 52
14 MIBravesFan 49
15 George 46
16 David O’Brien 45
17 keylargo 43
18 JC from DR! 38
19 Bat Masterson 37
20 timthebrave 36
21 Shaun 34
22 bravesgrl4lifee 34
23 Mixxo 31
24 Ward 30
25 Lew 29
Ward
August 29th, 2011
12:48 am
Focus on Bourn in the Off-season,and also try to get Infante back! We also find a way to sign J.J. too,and Hanson……
noliee
August 29th, 2011
12:50 am
both will be gone after next season when bourns current contract ends…wes
not a given. Chipper might easily decide to finish out that last year of his contract, and if they wait until the winter of ‘12 they lose a bit of the advantage of being the only tean in the dealing that an extension might give them.
Ward
August 29th, 2011
12:54 am
We let Chipper play his final year of contract,and then we don’t have to do too much for that year,but sign players,and just go get a couple of bargain players for the bench……
Unknown Hinson
August 29th, 2011
12:58 am
sign him
Ward
August 29th, 2011
12:59 am
Most definately we sign Bourn first than J.J.
Choppinmama
August 29th, 2011
1:02 am
Meanwhile, other teams were winning the World Series this past decade that could manufacture runs in the postseason both ways: the big, timely home run, and the ability to “manufacture” runs with speed that leads to misplayed balls, stolen bases, hit and runs, etc.
Larry – and your comments about Bobby – the boring wait between 3 run homers (which was great when it happened, but when it didn’t , we were lousy at manufacturing) – are so right on!!
Bourne, Constanza, Jason, Marteeen, AGon need to find the way to get on, then, the big boppers can move then around or in. Bourne and the rest of the team speedsters can worry the heck out of the pitcher and fielders. It’s exciting baseball. To me, speed gives the players a really good chance to influence the game on the bases.
Good pitching and aggressiveness. We look good moving into the end of the season and into the wild card playoffs. We have the players to make a good run. Let’s see how the coaching works. Feeling moderately comfortable with that too. May get more comfortable with Fredi & Co. towards season’s end.
Mike S
August 29th, 2011
1:05 am
Anybody hear from Lew since he logged off this morning? Looks like Vermont just got killed today with flooding. I saw some weather channel clips & photos, and boy, just devastation in some of those small towns. How sad. I think it was more in southern Vermont, and I think Lew is farther north, so hopefully he’s alright. The blog is thinking about you buddy!
Choppinmama
August 29th, 2011
1:08 am
McFanned those italics! Gettin late for me.
I may be forced to watch the Filthies today if they’re playing.
Hope all you folks effected by Irene are safe and dry tonight.
Mike S
August 29th, 2011
1:10 am
I got a chance to pass through Brattleboro, VT earlier this summer, and it is one of the coolest, most beautiful little towns you could come across. Stopped to eat at a sandwich shop, right on Main St. It is such a shame that that street (among many others of course) is now completely under water.
BehindEnemyLines
August 29th, 2011
1:11 am
5/$40m seems like a very good deal, I wouldn’t flinch a bit at 5/$50m. Beyond that it starts to get a lot tougher.
benchwarmer
August 29th, 2011
1:19 am
So the Braves have won some kind of real high percentage since Bourne took the field for them. Can you say a key player has arrived on Aaron Blvd? Sign the man if you can, he is a game maker who contributes in several ways. To borrow from Chipper, Bourne has a large affect just being in the lineup and defensive skills too. O boy!
noliee
August 29th, 2011
1:19 am
He’s having a career year, don’t think I’d give him 10 per off of that one year. He might regress. If I had to give that I think I’d wait, but Frank might very well be willing to pay that. something to look forward to seeing how it turns out
benchwarmer
August 29th, 2011
1:21 am
Jayson Heyward has this kind of potential with some pop too. Hope he’s still a brave when he gets it all going.
Ward
August 29th, 2011
1:23 am
benchwarmer: I agree,and we shouldn’t let Heyward go either……..
panamajack
August 29th, 2011
1:25 am
I beleive the braves will need a SS next year, I don’t think A-Gon will settle for a 1 year contract because he can get a long term deal somewhere else and the braves are not going to give him more than 1 year because Pastronicky will be ready in 2013. Braves will have to trade for a SS during the off season and it will have to be someone with just one year left on his contract.
RemoW
August 29th, 2011
1:25 am
Great article about Chipper’s place among all 3rd baseman.
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/15464/where-chipper-ranks-among-all-time-3b
Chipper haters don’t read.
Ward
August 29th, 2011
1:27 am
SS next year, just bring up Pastornicky,and we get Infante as well……
The Dude
August 29th, 2011
1:28 am
Bourn is exactly what the Braves have been missing and $8 million is reasonable for him. Braves need to be careful with the number of years he’s given. One, players get slower when they get older. Two, injuries affect speed guys more. And Three, stolen base guys tend to quit stealing bases after they get long term contracts.
panamajack
August 29th, 2011
1:32 am
I would like to see Chipper play two more seasons but I don’t believe his knees will hold up one more season if he even makes it the rest of this year I will be surprised. I would much rather have a full time 3rd baseman than pay him $15mil to play part time.
Mike S
August 29th, 2011
1:35 am
And thanks for the late-night, in the midst of some off days, surprise bloggage, DOB. Of course you didn’t have to do it, but we appreciate that you did! Good stuff with all of the numbers and comparisons. Juan Pierre was immediately who I thought of, when you mentioned comparisons right off the bat. Maybe the fact his contract has been pretty much universally panned will keep Bourn at a reasonable price, but with Boras you never know…
I’m with you though, if you can extend him with a reasonable deal, say 4-5 yrs at $8-9 per, then by all means go for it. But once you get well past that amount, I think they should hold off on an extension.
Mike S
August 29th, 2011
1:40 am
Some of this might depend on Constanza too. Because right now, of course, he seems like he’s just riding a hot streak and likely isn’t the prototypical leadoff hitter that Bourn is. But say he finishes the year still on fire, still getting on base at a really good clip and stealing bases; he starts looking like an everyday player and capable leadoff man, and not the 4th OF/PR type player that pretty much everyone had him pegged as before his call up. Then maybe you do have a Bourn replacement internally…
Ward
August 29th, 2011
1:42 am
I liked Constanza,before the brought up,and he would be a great 4th out-fielder,and late defense in the 7th inning on up…….
noliee
August 29th, 2011
1:45 am
great article. Chipper is my favorite all time Brave and one of my top 5-6 players, but I’m not buying him as the second best 3rd baseman of all times. I’d rank him 4th or 5th.
Ward
August 29th, 2011
1:47 am
Chipper is not better than Edddie Mathews,but he is good……
Jethro Bodine
August 29th, 2011
1:50 am
noliee
Would you rank Schmidt as the best all around?
Johnnynewguy
August 29th, 2011
1:54 am
Juan Pierre was never on the White Sox before he was traded in 2009 to them. In 2006 the White Sox had Scott Podsednik playing LF. The only Juan on the team was Juan Uribe who played shortstop. Juan Pierre played for the Chicago CUBS in 2006 his only season with them.
Jethro Bodine
August 29th, 2011
1:54 am
RemoW
Thanks for the article. Should have read it before asking about Schmidt, the second player I saw inducted (Seaver was first) in person at the Baseball Hall Of Fame.
lookingoveryourshoulder
August 29th, 2011
1:59 am
Just got to stay from a Scott Boras player. Bourn is a good fit here, but keeping him means dealing with Mr. Greed himself. Stay away from he who deals a losing hand.
Ward
August 29th, 2011
2:05 am
I think Bourn will do the honorable thing,and sign like Dan Uggla at a reasonable deal.My prediction………
Rowsdower
August 29th, 2011
2:10 am
Boras is an ass and will try to bend the Braves over and take them for everything their worth this offseason. It will be the only time the Braves will have exclusive negotiating rights with Bourn. If they can get it done for 5/$40 you have to pull the trigger. Anything more than that and it becomes and upside down proposition. Like buying a car you can’t afford at a ridiculous interest rate.
Bourn is a solid player, but he is certainly not elite. He shouldn’t be paid 8 figures like an elite player. There’s a CF coming into free agency after 2012 that IS worth elite money. Cat by the name of Matt Kemp. If you’re gonna pay that kind of scratch, you gotta get the more complete player.
Every team that Bor-ass tries to fleece for Bourn is going to look at the Pierre deal and balk at the price. Don’t let him make Bourn out to be something he’s not…
noliee
August 29th, 2011
2:13 am
yes Schmidt first.at least of all the ones I’ve seen, which were all he mentioned except Home Run Baker
Ward
August 29th, 2011
2:16 am
Rowsdower: Perhaps you didn’t hear how well Bourn fit in with the players,and how he treated every one in the club house .He’s a nice kid,and we shouldn’t have problems…….
Jethro Bodine
August 29th, 2011
2:17 am
noliee
Were you in the stands when Cobb spiked Home Run Baker in 1909?
noliee
August 29th, 2011
2:20 am
he’s not a kid. He is at the age when he will likely get his best contract ever, especially coming off his best season. I don’t see him signing cheap and giving up that opportunity with Boras as his agent. we’ll see.
Rowsdower
August 29th, 2011
2:20 am
Being a great fit is worth a few bucks, but not $2M per year. If he were a pain in the ass (see Lofton, Kenny), we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
2:20 am
no I missed that game, but Cobb was one of my favorite players.
Ward
August 29th, 2011
2:22 am
Rowsdower: what ever…………………
RemoW
August 29th, 2011
2:23 am
Jethro Bodine: Very cool that you have actually been at the HOF induction ceremony. I really considering trying to go for Maddux and someday Chipper.
Rowsdower
August 29th, 2011
2:26 am
Well said.
I take it you disagree and you think the Braves should just give Bourn a blank check? Bourn is a great fit for the Braves, but that doesn’t make him more valuable on the open market. Boras will spin it that way and pit the Braves against themselves while every other team tells him to suck one.
RemoW
August 29th, 2011
2:26 am
Noliee: Who do you put in front of Chipper?
haggard
August 29th, 2011
2:28 am
noliee
I thought it was sorta picky a few years back when the Baseball Reference folks took a hit away from Cobb and dropped his lifetime average a point to .366. Sorta looks a bit pedestrian after seeing .367 by his name at the top of the heap all those years.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
2:30 am
hag , is that really you? if so, I guess the rumors of your demise were greatly exaggerated….
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
2:31 am
Ruh-roh.
The ‘where’d haggard go’ stuff is about to reignite.
Character or not, good to see the name…
noliee
August 29th, 2011
2:32 am
Mathews and likely Brett, but that one is close.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
2:33 am
whatcha think about the third basemen BAS? You da man.
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
2:34 am
I blame Tom O’. I have no reason to, but…
And, as a Tom O’ aside: nice to see VJ thwarted again. VJ pads stats like the hair-bears of the ’80s padded bras. There’s some paddin’ goin’ on, is what I’m sayin’.
But, no matter. Done thwarted, son.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
2:35 am
c’mon now, don’t ignore my question and hurt my feelin’ses BAS
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
2:39 am
Don’t make me baseball-reference, noles. I’ve had a glass or two of this fine whiskey, and I only skimmed the earlier stuff.
Without looking (and I never really saw the others play), I gotta think Michael Jack, Pinetar, and the other Brave cat are ahead, right. Brooks has gotta be behind. And, are you guys saying Ty Cobb played third? I thought he was a four…
I’m sayin’ he’s fourth best all-time, with special consideration for bein’ a switch, and a one-team, WS-champ… Do I win?
noliee
August 29th, 2011
2:39 am
alright be that way. I am gonna leave in a huff……..
clay
August 29th, 2011
2:40 am
Wren will get it done. I can’t wait to watch him and contanza on the base paths the next few years.
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
2:40 am
Damn, noles. Can I get a second? A second? Some of us don’t hunt and peck all that well…
noliee
August 29th, 2011
2:41 am
just in time. yes you win. and Baker player third, Cobb just spiked him….maybe
David O'Brien
August 29th, 2011
2:41 am
Choppinmama, the book was very good, and the movie cast looks excellent. Beyond that, I have no idea how good it will be. No reviews yet.
By the way, had a couple of hours to do that blog, not couple of days. But thanks much for the kind words.
Ward
August 29th, 2011
2:41 am
noliee: I would take Mathews over Brett,and Mike Schmidt over Brett,but that is just me.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
2:43 am
me too ward. I’d rank Brett and Chipper very close together behind those two
Ward
August 29th, 2011
2:47 am
noliee: Yeah, Like it………
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
2:50 am
I just assumed Brett was better; noles; you’re sayin’ it’s close, and 10’s even ahead?
I think reading Posnanski the last couple years (thanks DOB), and because the pinetar incident might be the best video ever, I just assumed Brett was better. Baseball-reference, here I come. (And, I’m not checking defense; I’m gonna assume fairly even guys defensively. Brett was probably better early, but switched to first late…)
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
2:52 am
And, I’ll now go back and check the last page.
I can’t believe y’all post stuff that you expect the rest of us to read, yet can’t extend an (as noles called it) five-second courtesy to check the previous page…
But, that’s what this place has become. Carry on, Shaun…
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
2:59 am
OK, so I’m struggling to find career 3B numbers, all-time. Thought it’d be so easy, even an Anders could do it… What I did find:
Transactions: June 4, 1990: Drafted by the Atlanta Braves in the 1st round (1st pick) of the 1990 amateur draft. Player signed June 4, 1990.
How sweet is that? That’s the whole thing, right there. Drafted. Signed. Hall of Fame.
Thanks, 10.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
3:00 am
I think it’s close and Brett is just ahead. JMO BAS
Ward
August 29th, 2011
3:00 am
Bay Area Steve: We kept Shaun off the ifrst page amazing……..
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
3:01 am
Braveheart,
Beautiful post earlier about the grandparents. I wish you were around more, but I’ll damn sure take the once-a-month gems…
Ward
August 29th, 2011
3:01 am
Not having Shuan on the first page is funny……..
Ward
August 29th, 2011
3:02 am
Well every one! Have a good one,and night all,and peace……………………………
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
3:04 am
noles,
I’m growing frustrated; I can’t compare 3B career numbers. Gotta be a piece of cake. What am I doin’ wrong? Find me a link, kind sir, is what I’m sayin’…
Ward, indeed we did. And, sorry for not believing in you, before. I was wrong. I’m a convert, sir. I truly appreciate your innocence, and your unbridled enthusiasm. Go Braves!
stizz
August 29th, 2011
3:10 am
BAS, what’s up my guy
noliee
August 29th, 2011
3:12 am
some will say that ARod is the greatest of all time . I think FanGraphs talked about that
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
3:17 am
Yeah, noles.
I’ve given up finding my usuals: slash/offensive WAR/ops+ (I mean, I’m clearly far too busy to look them up individually; I want this stuff in 10Paul, easy-to-read table format), and have tried The Google Machine. First thing up was the fangraphs article.
I’ve made a personal decision to not include ARod. I’ve no idea if this is right, and have put virtually no thought into it, but I’m excluding him…
noliee
August 29th, 2011
3:18 am
BAS
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-path-to-cooperstown-through-the-hot-corner/
Hardball Times
http://umpbump.com/press/2010/05/03/crowdsourcing-the-greats-the-greatest-third-basemen-of-all-time/
halfway down the page is a list of links. I did not try them all.
chuck
August 29th, 2011
3:19 am
5 years, 50MM….no conversation on the matter…first year eats up his last arb eligible year…so only paying him thru 32 year old season….
For all the folks who think we need a 3b, well, we have a 3b if we need one in Prado for the short-term, and hopefully Salcedo projects there by 2015….meaning we only need a 3b for 2013 and 2014….
There should be more available quality LFers than 3b, so having the flex of Prads is a tremendous boon, when shopping…of course, if there is a better 3b available, we can leave Prads in LF…we are in fantastic shape.
So, no let’s not save this money, let’s spend the McLouth and KK saves on arb increases, and hopefully move Lowe to some team who will eat $5MM of his salary, so that we can give that to Bourn.
And then in winter of 2012, we can go spend Chip’s and the full Lowe salaries on a new LF/3b and more increases.
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
3:19 am
My blood-alcohol-content, stizz. Any other questions? ‘Cause I frickin’ nailed that one. Too easy…
How ’bout you tell me you’re old enough to remember MacGyver.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
3:20 am
you omitting ARod cause of the PEDs tie?
noliee
August 29th, 2011
3:21 am
And then in winter of 2012, we can go spend Chip’s and the full Lowe salaries on a new LF/3b and more increases….chuck
I am not convinced that Chipper will not be back in 2013 to finish the contract.
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
3:22 am
Thank you, nolie. Very kind of you, sir. I will now go a clickin’…
And, for the record: Brett’s numbers (in my head) are gettin’ a well-earned 1% inflation for the pinetar thing. I mean, the umps didn’t even enforce the rule properly…
chuck
August 29th, 2011
3:25 am
Noliee: He only vests at 9MM on the option if he makes it into 123 games, which is by no means guaranteed….
noliee
August 29th, 2011
3:25 am
McGyver was on Fairly Legal last year, well Anderson was.
Hardly recognized him. Looks old and heavy.
chuck
August 29th, 2011
3:27 am
I’d love Chip to return as Hitting Coach/Designated PH for 2013….that would be sweet…
noliee
August 29th, 2011
3:27 am
yeah I know Chuck, just saying it is not guaranteed that he will leave after 2012, though it might be likely.
unless of course the Mayans were right, and then we won’t hafta worry about his salary at all
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
3:28 am
No, nolie, re: your 3:20.
I’ve given up trying to judge who was clean and who was dirty. I’m tired of the whole thing. I don’t like it, but the best guys are the best guys whatever happened. You only played against whites, you only played on amphetamines, you only played on Astroturf, I’ve come to not care.
(I think I do have some sort of Rafael Palmeiro rule, though. I can’t quite pinpoint it, and I think it has a lot to do with that ridiculous gold-glove, but regardless, I don’t want that cat in the Hall.)
I just think, if you’re talking all-time 3B, the guy should’ve come up a 3B, and stayed a 3B. (Notice I have a two-year LF exemption. Clearly I make this stuff up as I go…)
chuck
August 29th, 2011
3:31 am
Well you said finish the contract, and the only way he can do that is if he finds his way into 123 games in 2012…in which case he ramps up beginning at $9MM all the way to $13MM if he plays 140-some games…this will be difficult for him…he is just too injury prone…he’s only played above 140 once since 2002, and that was in 2009 and he hit miserably by his standards at .264….
What i don’t wanna have happen is him not vest but still feel like returning…hopefully if his 2012 is injury-marred he finally walks away gracefully.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
3:33 am
me too chuck, but I kinda doubt that will happen b4 his kids grow up some.
He is already tired of life on the team away from his fam for 14mil. a coach’s salary is unlikely gonna tempt him.
chuck
August 29th, 2011
3:34 am
Pretty good breakdown on ESPN Sweetspot RE: The Greatest 3B of all-time…
The writer had it: Schmidt, Chip, Mathews, Brett, Boggs, Brooksie….
I can’t disagree with that…though anyone could be 3rd on the list behind Michael Jack and Chip….
noliee
August 29th, 2011
3:36 am
Well you said finish the contract…chuck
yes I did say that, and I was aware of what that entailed.
If he plays about like this year he can make it if he wants to.
If he goes on the DL more than once, he prolly won’t.
stizz
August 29th, 2011
3:36 am
I was about 2 or 3 when the show first aired so I don’t know too much about it.
Only 90’s shows that I’ve seen alot of is Martin and Parent Hood.
chuck
August 29th, 2011
3:37 am
Well, there’s a reason that career 3b list is kinda short….it’s a brutal position physically….that’s why some special love needs to be given to Brooksie…he stayed healthy there for a lot of years and was by far the best of the group in the field….his bat probably took the brunt of the beating, but he held up his end there (am saying this as a DC native with love for the O’s as my AL club)….
What’s funny is alot of people say Boggs could have been a 30 HR hitter had he wanted to…same with Brett…they opted to play a different type of game.
stizz
August 29th, 2011
3:38 am
Correction, I was around 2 years old when it ended in 92.
chuck
August 29th, 2011
3:39 am
Tired being away from his family on the team….now he just wants to be away from them on his hunting ranch in remote Texas
noliee
August 29th, 2011
3:40 am
Is Chipper really second? I don’t know who wrote that, but I bet you would have to look long and hard to find many non-Braves folks who would buy it.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
3:41 am
I’m sure the fam would spend summers with him there.
gotta teach then kids to provide their own food in case the money runs out…….
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
3:41 am
Shoot, stizz.
I don’t know why we even wasted each other’s time talkin’ TV. I’m a MacGyver/A-team/LA Law guy from way back. I’m not sayin’ I’m right, I’m sayin’ that I’ve no business in a serious My Wife discussion with a guy that has no ‘I love it when a deal comes together’ frame of reference.
And, don’t doubt I can drop ‘Cosby Show’ and ‘Home Improvement’ knowledge in the same post…
noliee
August 29th, 2011
3:44 am
how ’bout All In The Family and The Jeffersons knowledge too?
stizz
August 29th, 2011
3:44 am
BAS,
Can’t fault me for that my man. Couldn’t exactly tell my mom when to shoot me out.
I do know good TV today however. I could talk your head off with some serious Parks and Recreation/The Wire talk.
Shark Tank is becoming a favorite of mine as well.
chuck
August 29th, 2011
3:45 am
Schoenfield…wrote it this very evening in fact…ESPN….
As a switch hitter, he’s top 5 all time probably….combining his glove, the fact he spent time in LF for a superior 3b…i don’t know…if you factor in his production and extrapolate over the missed games, you get a more accurate portrait of what his potential is/was…
Mathews kinda had inflated #s as a young player due to Korea and had the benefit of playing in a lineup with Hank…Robinson anchored a perennial 90 game winner’s D, but had the benefit of playing with Belanger (above avg glove to his left) and a HOF pitching staff that could control the contact off the bat…Brett i actually might like behind Schmidt more than Chip…
Boggs had a tremendous park factor to his advantage with the Fenway wall….but there’s never been a better bunter in the modern era, and he was a great baserunner, though slow…
All these guys have their pluses and minuses….but Chip has identical #s from both sides of plate (consistency is scary), and has been an MVP, and a winner unparalleled.
stizz
August 29th, 2011
3:46 am
Toss in Family Matters..
chuck
August 29th, 2011
3:47 am
(After a car drives up a ramp and does the patented flip after an intense shootout)
Guido: You OK, Rocky?
Rocky: I’m OK Guido….
Nobody ever died on the A-Team in spite of awesome M-16 battles and pinpoint Army explosives tactics…
Rowsdower
August 29th, 2011
4:04 am
I’m omitting A-Fraud from the discussion because he isn’t a career 3B. By career I mean played the majority of their career their. He played 10 years at SS. That is the same reason I wouldn’t consider Ripken one of the best 3Bs ever.
He also used, so that has to be a downgrade…
Robin Of The Hood
August 29th, 2011
4:16 am
money will be there with Nate and D Lowe (he’s gone man…no way you keep him when Julio T, Dellgado or Minor could all win 10 games ATLEAST next year)….When you can win the same amount of games for 13-14 million less
SA
August 29th, 2011
4:18 am
Good player who helps us win games. But paying someone boras money when you are not the yanks or bosox is stupid. Very few teams have copious amounts of money to throw around and overpay for players. Don’t we have some speedsters in the minors?
I would be happy with Georgie taking over the leadoff spot when Bourn leaves for his boras money. Same with Hanson, once he hits free agency its; goodbye and see ya later.
Frank from KS (now living in CO)
August 29th, 2011
4:25 am
Nolie – While I might be biased, beings I grew up a Royals fan, I’d take George over Mike Schmidt anyday, but I’d put Brooks Robinson ahead of both of them, and that’s with not ever seeing Brooksie play.
chuck
August 29th, 2011
4:28 am
Where you gonna get Boras money SA?
Granderson in CF in NY, Ellsbury entrenched in Boston….Kemp in LA….Philly gonna cut payroll, their debt/income ratio may dictate they let Hamels walk…
Point is, at 10MM a year, Bourn is very affordable, and that is getting Boras money because the arb process doesn’t reward his type of play, and he’s relatively cheap for final year of arb at 7MM…
Georgie Costanza? Perennial 4Aer who has caught lightning in a bottle, and will surely be exposed over anything over 200 ABs a year? I love him as a 4th or 5th OFer…but once others have his book…he’ll decline the 2nd and 3rd times around the league.
As to Robin of the Hood: Arb increases will eat up KK and Nate’s salaries…the only found money will be if we can get someone to take Lowe off of our hands at a steep subsidy…you’ll have to wait til 2013…
And we are already bringing a knife to a gunfight with our salary resources allotted…90MM v 170MM in our very own division…so no, i want no decrease in annual spend, we need every penny. If the goal was to avg most wins per $ spent we already win, but the goal is to win a WS…so let’s exhaust every penny of available budget and acquire the most talent possible.
chuck
August 29th, 2011
4:31 am
Schmidt had more tools than anyone…for all his Ks, he was top 10 in OBP 10 of 11 years during which he won 3 MVPs….he led the league in HRs in an astroturf slap hitting era an astounding 8x with relatively modest help in the lineup…
Brett got to hit behind a bunch of rude speedsters on a fast playing surface with a better pitching staff (particularly while Dick Howser was alive)….
I love Brett as a pure hitter, but he didn’t field like Schmidt.
I also question whether Brett could’ve done the job in the intense pressure cooker that is Philly…he’s such an intense dude, he’d have killed somebody….Schmidt took the beating and still came out of it as the eras best player (’75-’85)
Rowsdower
August 29th, 2011
4:37 am
I agree you use every dollar, but you also have to spend wisely. There is a threshold I wouldn’t cross with Bourn and that is about $8M per year. This team is is an eviable position to be playoff caliber AND young/rebuilding. You don’t want to invest too much in someone like Bourn and limit your ability to retain your other young talent. Remember, we have some major contracts coming up with JJ, Tommy and Mac. Then you’re getting close to the next wave of Freddie, Heyward, Venters, Kimbrel and O’Flaherty. Every nickel saved could be the difference between keeping all the young talent and losing someone.
I trust Wren to make the right decisions. He has done nothing to dissuade me to this point.
Larry
August 29th, 2011
4:41 am
For sure, should the Braves go deep into the postseason or perhaps even win the World Series, and while doing so should Michael Bourne plays a significant or substantial part in this, the cash register will be dinging so fast it may be too hot to touch!
chuck
August 29th, 2011
4:45 am
Well, my buddy and i have the salaries all modeled out til 2020, with projected arb increases…
Fact is though this exercise is far from perfect, signing Bourn thru 2016 wouldn’t be any hindrance to retaining all of our cost-controlled talent (even allowing for extensions)….
Additionally, we have nothing close to ready in the Minor Leagues for CF….and you just can’t replicate his speed, SB accuracy, or glove…like Andruw or not, we have missed his glove in CF since he left, and i think you pay a premium for GG up the middle D.
All that young talent is cost-controlled that you mention….only Jair and Mac will need new deals, and with Weaver signing to stay home in Anaheim, that’s a sign that Jair is much more signable than i initially thought.
I have no problem giving a guy in his athletic prime a little more, particularly when we have the latitude financially to do it…not only will it solidify our leadoff spot and up the middle D, saving us countless runs, but it’ll indicate to other FAs that we aren’t so f-ing cheap if its the right skill set you bring….
I cant’ find a better CF to lock down….we have long term solutions everywhere but CF and SS….i consider the money Chip frees up as a long term solution whether we use it for LF or 3b when the time comes…
SS is the only thing i wanna be concerned about come 2013….and hopefully Andrelton Simmons continues with the bat, because I’ve seen his glove and arm, and those are both MLB ready…
Herb Bell
August 29th, 2011
5:00 am
Constanza could be a replacement for Bourne if we can’t sign Bourne. Cons is an excellent CF. May be wrong, but I believe Cons will continue to hit well… he’s a lifetime .300 hitter in the minors and has certainly hit well since brought up to the bigs.
Man, hope we’ve got a comer in the minors for AGon, who is terrific defensively… some of the plays he makes on defense are superb. He’s not much offensively, tho an occasional long ball threat.
Larry
August 29th, 2011
5:17 am
Rowsdower,
Agreed, but then this is another reason baseball, a supposed “league” of competitive franchises playing by the same rules, needs to implement a salary cap so teams like the Braves, Marlins and Tampa Bay whom all have great player development systems can stop being a farm system for the Yanks, Red Sox and Phillies that not coincidentally, have the top three records and top three payrolls in baseball. Otherwise, we may get to the World Series, but we cannot sustain it once the either of the big three or four begin consuming our talent base.
This is why the NFL has left MLB in its dust in popularity, where the competitive balance is such that a Pittsburgh, Arizona, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and even that small town in Wisconsin can always compete for a title given good player selection, development and coaching; and never do they have to worry about the Jets, Giants, Eagles or Patriots buying their players.
That such a disparity exists between top and bottom franchises of the same league–the Yankees with a $203,000,000.00 payroll versus the Royals $36,000,000.00 (5.64 times greater)–coupled with different rules between the National and American Leagues–speaks to the absurdity of it all and is frankly insulting to our intelligence.
It is odd to me to start thinking this way, but at 15th out of 30 team’s payroll, the Braves have slowly and methodically drifted down and may soon be in the “farm team” category as the Marlins, Pirates and Royals…rarely, if ever, having a real opportunity to compete for the World Series. Worse, it is just sad to think that Kimbrel, Venters, Freeman and others we will one day see on ESPN every night playing for either the Sox or Yankees because they will have 2, 3, 4, 5 or maybe even six times the revenue to buy our players!
Baseball, with the huge disparity in player purchasing power between franchises, the absurdity of different rules, and perhaps the biggest and dumbest “puppet” for a commissioner, could really use more than a face lift; it could use reconstructive surgery to regain its popularity and restore some honor and dignity!
How sad it must feel to be utterly hopeless in Pittsburgh, for example, while their Steelers have been to seven, yes SEVEN, Super Bowls, including three in the past few years?
Rowsdower
August 29th, 2011
5:19 am
I agree we have the money coming off the books, but we also have an unsettled ownership. Once Liberty’s tax write-off is no longer available, they’re going to look to unload the team. I believe that is after next season. If we get an owner like Arthur Blank, we’re golden. If we get another corporate owner, who knows what the payrole will be.
I love the fact that most of talent is young and controllable, I also know that its going to cost money to keep all that talent. I’m all for keeping Bourn at the right price. Just don’t mortgage the future on a guy that’s 28 and having a career year. If he wrecks shop next year…all bets are off.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:20 am
pretty sure that the union is not gonna ok a salary cap
chuck
August 29th, 2011
5:21 am
Costanza may be a late bloomer who will make the most of his extended reps…but i caution you against penciling him in as a long-term solution…there’s a reason why he hasn’t ever had an extended stay at the ML level until now.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:29 am
he never had any stay at all, but he was kinda blocked with the Indians.
I think he might make a decent 4th OFer. More than that is stretching it long term probably.
and he has gotten cold the last few games so it might be time to get Heyward in there more though many on this blog will rant about that unless Jason gets hot right away.
Rowsdower
August 29th, 2011
5:31 am
You’re right, Larry. Baseball has become Premier League Soccer. There are haves and havenots. The Yankees, Sox and Phillies are not going to let the “luxury tax” stop them from running up a bill when acquiring players. They will continue to attack the free agent/trade market farm system be damned because they are in win now mode constantly and can afford to do so. The Braves are on the fence since Ted got raped by AOL/TW. In the next year we will know if they are a have or have not.
I agree, there is no competitive balance in baseball at all. How the hell can you have leagues with different rules playing under the guise of a sport? Its absolutely asinine. There is no way a team in Kansas City or Pittsburgh can compete consistently with the “Big 3″ because they can only control their players so long financially. I really don’t want to see the Braves punished for knowing how to scout, develop and trade for the right players…only to see those players playing for those douchebags down the road.
chuck
August 29th, 2011
5:34 am
Heyward is still a presence P have to be careful around…i just wish he would exhibit the same pitch selectivity that made him such an immediate success and vaulted him thru the minors so rapidly.
He has the potential to be a .400 OBP guy annually….right now he’s not trusting his ability to turn on balls so he’s way early on off-speed and guessing poorly on the inside part of the plate. His OBP and walk rate are suffering….when those are healthy, it’s an avalanche of extra base hits and walks.
Lately he’s been laying back on balls and letting his hands run inside out on balls and he’s going oppo with greater frequency…let’s hope this continues and as pitchers try to adjust that they start making mistakes…this year is a lost year stat-wise, but if he takes Uggla’s approach and goes day to day with it, he could still be productive and a weapon in the post-season….
chuck
August 29th, 2011
5:36 am
I was thinking that someone needs to translate extra $ into wins…and everyone should get a handicap…80MM extra $$ of payroll over the mean means the Phils need to win the division by 8 or more games over the Braves…this would mean we’d be in the division lead!
(I say all this knowing it will never happen)
Rowsdower
August 29th, 2011
5:41 am
I can’t believe that anyone that is a true Braves fan is giving up on Heyward. He is 22 and has all the tools to be a monster. I can’t see him as a factor this year, but he is definitely the future. He just needs time to get his head straight and work through the adjustments it takes to be a major league player. He isn’t going to get that time in the heat of a pennant race. He’ll get it together in spring training and be ready to rock next year.
chuck
August 29th, 2011
5:47 am
The only thing i worry about is the pounding a 6′6, 250 lb guy is gonna take playing 150+ times a year….only guy i know who played a real long time at that size in the OF was Dave Winfield….
So far, he hasn’t been able to avoid the naggers and things like shin splints…just injuries that come with the day to day pounding. Every time he slides headfirst on that thumb i cringe.
wes33
August 29th, 2011
5:57 am
We will mess around and end up getting Schaffer back from Houston
Ron H.
August 29th, 2011
6:03 am
I think we are not going to get Bourne…
Borass will see to that. Mark my words. If we somehow do manage to sign him, then I’ll gladly eat crow…
chuck
August 29th, 2011
6:13 am
But i ask you:
Where will Bourn go get this magical payday that will exceed our ability to match? We will have some available payroll…if not this off-season, then surely next…we’ll have Lowe’s salary in it’s entirety.
I don’t plan on offering Bourn $15MM…but why can’t we pay $10MM (which is at the high end of his market)
Philadelphia has a guy they like in Victorino, NY has Granderson, Boston has Ellsbury….
Bourn is from Houston, so he favors the South….the Dodgers have Kemp, so if he has an LA fetish, that won’t work…Anaheim will have Trout or Hunter….
The Mets have no money…they’ll be cutting payroll.
Boras has to recognize that there are only so many big money slots available…this is one reason Pujols is going to have to re-sign in St Louis or go to the Cubs….no big market has a 1b slot available…and now Pujols will have to contend with Fielder looking for a slot too….
Musical chairs, my friend…closest comparison i can make…
chuck
August 29th, 2011
6:17 am
Plus we are built to win for years….that has to be an attraction for a guy like Bourn who toiled in mediocrity or less for years in Houston…
I think we get Bourn if we want Bourn…that limited gamble was part of the reason this deal was so good for us, and also why we included Shafer in the return package. We feel that if he’s gonna do as he’s done so far, that he’s going to be a big piece of our team during the next few seasons.
He offers a dimension that makes us a better than .600 club in the woeful NL…a dimension we’ve lacked for a long time.
coach joe
August 29th, 2011
6:27 am
HOSS can stay as long as he wants.. Show some love. This is a great team… Phillies/Braves winner on to the World Series. Our back three bull pen stoppers will bring us home.
Go Braves..
chuck
August 29th, 2011
6:52 am
Take your Bike shorts off Coach!
Hoss struggles to stay healthy and holds us hostage for weeks at a time during these spells….as i stated, he’s a helluva player when he’s in there, but we can’t count on him for more than 130 games a year…
If i had Ted Turner’s wallet, i’d pay Hoss 20MM a year tribute pay…but those days are long-gone…
Rowsdower
August 29th, 2011
6:54 am
I have no doubt that if Wren makes Bourn a priority, he will be a Brave for the next 6 years. If he chooses to use that money elsewhere because Boras has priced him beyond our budget, i’m not gonna hate. Wren has proven to me that he knows what he’s doing. We can move Lipka to CF in an emergency. He is a good enough athlete to handle it.
Rowsdower
August 29th, 2011
6:59 am
Hell, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lipka playing CF next year just because we have a glut of SS prospects. Salcedo is clearly going to be a 3B because he will outgrow the position and we still have Pastornicky and Simmons still elite SS prospects.
Whoever asked if we have a prospect lined up to replace Gonzo should rest easy…we have too many.
chuck
August 29th, 2011
7:00 am
I saw Lipka this year…i think he projects to 2nd base…built like a young Ryne Sandberg….real square and strong….
Disappointing year for Lipka and he’s at least 3-4 years away…..so that doesn’t help us starting in 2012. We’ll need to look elsewhere, we have nothing in the system that will be ready.
The closest guy we have is Myke Jones, and he projects to be a utility/bench guy IMO.
dcb
August 29th, 2011
7:23 am
Love Bourn – but can’t fathom what Boros stands for. Guess he’s good for his clients. But in my opinion, its been agents like him (who leads the pack) who have really hurt the game. So yes, within reason I would try to sign Bourn to a contract extension this year. But second, I’d be making other lead-off hitter plans for if Boros runs true to form, his initial asking price would cost the Braves one or more of their future stars because of the salary cap – probably a pitcher the likes of Minor or even Jurjens. No sense in wasting the time dickering either. Guess I can’t blame the players for getting what they can. But let’s get real – making 4.5 mil or more for a handful of years gets you a pretty good lifestyle throughout your lifetime. What does holding out for another mil or two do for you other than make more money for your agent and give you a greedy SOB label. Ultimately, it is the fan who pays the tab and even as it is now, I can’t afford to attend more than a handful of games with my grandchildren each year.
Rowsdower
August 29th, 2011
7:25 am
Thankfully, we control Bourn through 2012. Lipka is young and needs time to develop. He’s an athlete. He will be fine. If he ends up being our 2B of the future, that works too.
Chris from the Rock
August 29th, 2011
7:26 am
I agree with bringing Infante back. The Braves miss his presence and versatility. Lugo stinks.
Frank Wren
August 29th, 2011
7:36 am
Matt Kemp will get 20+ a million
Bourn should get 8-10 million
space monkey
August 29th, 2011
7:44 am
Sign him to an extension today. He brings a totally new dimension to this team, one that it has lacked since Otis Nixon. Love him. He understands his role. Unlike Furcal he doesn’t think about home runs and hit dozens of flyouts trying to be Macho Man. And I don’t care what anybody says, you don’t need home runs from a leadoff hitter. Bourn is the man. I will personally send money to help the Braves sign him to an extension. He can hit for average, run, field, and he seems like a great guy. Do it Now!
panamajack
August 29th, 2011
8:00 am
What we should be talking about is??????WHO IS GOING TO BE ON THE ACTIVE ROSTER ON THE 31st, this will be the post season eligable roster. The big questions are, do you spend a spot on Heyward a .220 hitter, Do you go with Veteran pitchers who are struggling or go with fresh arms like Delgado, Minor and Teheran. And what about Lugo and Conrad, Could bring up Hicks who can play 3B and SS? Very important decisions coming up in 2 more days, Bourn can wait.
(Philly)Hater
August 29th, 2011
8:02 am
I can’t believe some think Bourn will be signed for 8-9 million…..are you serious?? No, he doesn’t hit homers, but the steroid era is over. Batting average, speed, and defense are now at a premium. Boras will ask for 15 million/year…..someone will pay him 12-13, IMHO
(Philly)Hater
August 29th, 2011
8:09 am
agree PanamaJack……Hansen is toast. I have a feeling JJ is worn out as well. Our 3 starting pitchers for the post season could be Hudson, Beachy, and dare I say it…..Lowe? Maybe Vizcaino….but that means 2 rookies in post season…..not good!!
chuck
August 29th, 2011
8:10 am
Well it’ll be a decision to make on Helms…Hoover….of course Heyward is on it, he’s on the 40 man….
Teheran doesn’t have but maybe 25 innings left (even stretching it here, maybe 20)….
Minor HAS to pitch now, because Hanson is hurt…and Lowe can’t be replaced, because none of the young guys is built up enough (Delgado or Teheran)….
Lugo and Conrad are on the 40 man…
Only real decisions IMO are whether to add JJ Hoover to the 40 to help in the pen, and to add Helms to help as a PH bat….that may require us removing Matt Young or someone…
chuck
August 29th, 2011
8:11 am
Vizcaino doesn’t have the innings to start any games…he’s strictly going to be used out of the pen, and probably for no more than 2 innings at a time…he missed a little time earlier this year luckily due to a minor injury which is helping us right now as Moylan gets healthy.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
8:12 am
Boras will ask for 15 million/year…..someone will pay him 12-13, IMHO
Then I’ll help him pack his bags. Despite the thought that speed and defense are at a “premium”, the truth is that the skillset Bourn brings to the game has less of a correlation to scoring runs than power. Much less. He just isn’t worth that kind of eight-figure money.
Now, Wren may see him as an absolute need, much as he did Lowe, and be willing to overpay to get him. But not at that $12MM+ figure. That would be insane.
Ralph
August 29th, 2011
8:13 am
Are we going to keep Linesuck on the post season roster instead of Visciano?
BOBBY COX
August 29th, 2011
8:14 am
If it were my decision I would bring back Norton for the post season!
RBrave
August 29th, 2011
8:17 am
I like Bourne and pay him what he’s worth, Just don’t overpay and long contracts. Look at what has happened to the Cubs with long overpaid contracts, ruined the club. Bourne has been a big asset to the Braves good move so far, keep it in perspective.
panamajack
August 29th, 2011
8:17 am
There is lots of wiggle room on the 40 man roster.
Rico
August 29th, 2011
8:18 am
DOB, how ya doin!? Hope you remember me. We met in Athens at the GA Theater a couple of years back sharing a stogie, Braves talk and a mutual admiration of James McMurtry. Anyhow, mark Thursday, Oct. 27 on your calendar. Jason Isbell and James McMurtry at the new GA Theater. Doesn’t get any better than that. Have you been since it reopened? Amazing. And they allow you to smoke on the rooftop bar/deck. Drop me a line if you want me to score tix. They won’t last long.
CB
August 29th, 2011
8:19 am
Bobby Cox, if it was my decision I would bring you back for the post season.
IDK Y
August 29th, 2011
8:21 am
WTF is up with your title? SHOULD THEY? He is a bonafide lead-off/base stealer in the major leagues… something we have lack for IONS in baseball time. The only way he shouldn’t resign is due to a career ending injury… get it right Wren.
bustersonly
August 29th, 2011
8:23 am
Yes CB, and we would lose like we did in 13 of 14 tries.
milford snow
August 29th, 2011
8:24 am
Pay the man and keep him. Everyone else gets hefty contracts, so why not?
wins-by-a-link
August 29th, 2011
8:26 am
Lets not forget who owns the Braves, Liberty Media, And they are not going to lncrease the budget to sign Bourn to a long term contract, Constanza on the other hand will be affordable for several years and is just as good Bourn, Lead off hitters are in high demand and the Braves under present ownership cannot afford two of them. I have said many times on this very blog until the Braves are owned by local interest you will not see any large increase in the budget.
bill
August 29th, 2011
8:26 am
prepare to spend at least 60 million for 6 years. Too much yes but its that or look for another centerfielder who is not as good and costs almost as much. We need a 4 man outfield as long as chipper is in the lineup to protect his rest days and any injuries. Thats not a knock on chipper its just the facts. There are no good free agents at third base next year so him staying may not be that bad. We just do not need to regress in any area because you can bet the Phillies will not.
Ron H.
August 29th, 2011
8:27 am
I’d be happy with 9-10 million a year for five, but Borass will ask for way over that amount…I like the suggestion that we offer (max) 50 for 5, starting next year. That, in my opinion, would be very hard to pass up.
Whatever happens, FW is not going to overpay. I like that. It lets these “super” agents know what they’re dealing with.
I really hope a cap comes into play sometime soon. Baseball economics are unsustainable as this rate.
bill
August 29th, 2011
8:29 am
the Phillies play 33 games in 31 days with no off days and the braves are coming off a three day break.. I like our chances better now but I really like the fact that the schedule may cause injury and energy drain to the Phillies staff. I know they may try to coast to the playoffs thats why we have to try to keep the pressure on.
bill
August 29th, 2011
8:32 am
I think Liberty Media will not own the Braves next year and beyond. Mark Cuban would pay what it takes to win. We need a deep pockets owner with a huge ego that requires victory,Sounds like a Cuban like guy to me.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
8:34 am
The N8 Constanza Watch:
Do I believe he’ll hit around .300 with an OBP around .350 from here on out? Yes
08/16-Present: .185/.241
USMC2841
August 29th, 2011
8:44 am
With MLB cracking down on PEDs you will see the game shift back to speed up the middle. Bourn and Constanza are a sign of things to come but it will take some time to get these types of players worked through the minors. I say sign him at $30 million for the next 5 years and by the time his contract runs out there will be 15 other players with similar stats. Kudos to Freddy Gonzolaz and Frank Wren for recognizing the shift in the game and moving speed into the line up. Previous years would have seen the Braves try to sign another hot and cold power hitter.
Random
August 29th, 2011
8:44 am
Choppinmama (August 29th, 2011 12:06 am): “what have you been hearing about the movie “Moneyball”? I’ll go see it because it’s about baseball . . . .
“Haven’t read the book either, how was it?”
It’s about baseball, too.
eric in nc
August 29th, 2011
8:49 am
Dave you forgot to mention that Butler stole bases at a 68% success rate while Bourn is at 81%. Huge difference. Butler stole a lot of bases but he wasnt a very good base stealer in terms of success.
vesaversa
August 29th, 2011
8:52 am
It really depend on what Bourn and Boris will ask for his service. But a 5 years contract shouldn’t be part of the deal .If i was the Braves i would move Constanza to lead off and promote some of those good young player down in triple A .
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
9:00 am
Kudos to Freddy Gonzolaz and Frank Wren for recognizing the shift in the game and moving speed into the line up.
They have one burner and five thumpers (not even counting Prado’s normal 10+ dingers). That doesn’t exactly sound like a paradigm shift to me.
If McCann, Uggla, Heyward, and Freeman are banging in 2012 and beyond the way they profile, I really, really doubt that the team will worry too much about SBs.
I understand that the team would like to be more athletic, especially in the OF, but that’s a different kettle of fish from relying on speed ss a strategy to produce runs.
John A
August 29th, 2011
9:03 am
Constanza has played Center, Left and Right!!!!!!!!!! WHAT’S THE PROBLEM? JOB you think everyone that reads your articles are STUPID. It’ down right insulting the way you write!!!!!
Constanza has as much speed (and maybe more) as Bourne.
Mike#
August 29th, 2011
9:06 am
Bourn will turn 30 in 2012 and his offensive numbers, beyond SBs, have been very sporadic. Before this season, he never hit beyond .285 and there hasn’t even been any consistency in that range. He is in the prime of his career and his numbers are showing it. But I think it would be wise to wait until we see what he does next season before locking him down. It’s a trend that players of his nature, such as Rajai Davis, Juan Pierre, etc. cannot sustain continued performance of the same caliber for a constant, for a significant amount of time. He’s due around 4 million next year, if I’m not mistaken. So you’ll have to give him a raise and take on at least a 4-5 year deal.
I say wait and see how things pan out.
phil
August 29th, 2011
9:07 am
Rowsdower
August 29th, 2011
5:41 am
I can’t believe that anyone that is a true Braves fan is giving up on Heyward. He is 22 and has all the tools to be a monster. I can’t see him as a factor this year, but he is definitely the future. He just needs time to get his head straight and work through the adjustments it takes to be a major league player. He isn’t going to get that time in the heat of a pennant race. He’ll get it together in spring training and be ready to rock next year.
**********************
He’s not the present, the past or the future. I read an interesting piece yesterday that quoted chipper on Wayward. Chipper said that Wayward has one swing. We all know this is the case from watching him, but it was interesting to see him come right out and say that as long as Wayward refuses to learn how to hit big league pitching by adjusting his swing as necessary, he can basically forget it.
I’ll taek Chipper at his word since the man clearly knows his stuff. The rest of you can keep fantasizing about Wayward and the worth(lessness) of his baseball cards.
Michael
August 29th, 2011
9:07 am
Why do baseball writers continue to list batting average first when on base percentage and slugging percentage are much better statistics for judging how good a player is? Peirre on base percentage has always been poor, as opposed to Bourne’s, that is why so many people said his contract was awful. A team only gets a maximum of 27 outs in a regulation game, so each out is precious.
As for Moneyball – the key to understanding the idea is that team should look for market ineffeciencies and capitolize on those. There is a new book out about the Rays, I think it is called the Other Two Percent.
Frank Wren
August 29th, 2011
9:07 am
Can you focus on this year??
John A
August 29th, 2011
9:08 am
There will come a day when team will tell Scott Boras to take a hike. The money commanded will depend largely on what is on the market.
These players have got to realize there is only so much money teams will pay. By salaries going up, that means ticket prices go up too. How much more will fans pay?????
MoreIsLess
August 29th, 2011
9:10 am
The reason Furcal only stole 30 bases 2 times for the Braves and averaged 14 homers is because of the Braves obsession with the home run. The Braves philosophy (at least under Bobby Cox) is to get a guy on base and then wait for someone to hit a homerun to score him. Bourn fits well on a team which manufactures runs, which the Braves are not. So, the Braves will probably pass on signing him in favor of another player like Andrew Jones that either hits a home run or strikes out.
I say, sign him, we need the speed to complement the Braves power, not another homerun hitter. Not to mention, speed makes the game more exciting to watch.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
9:10 am
He’s not the present, the past or the future.
So, phil, are you ballgaming the guy, LOL? Bust, for sure?
enz
August 29th, 2011
9:10 am
SIGN
MikeInFl
August 29th, 2011
9:13 am
Constanza is not an option as a full-time centerfielder. He is fast, but that doesn’t make him a good fielder (without even discussing whether he can hit big league pitching full-time).
The thing that’s glossed over is Bourn’s defense. That’s where his value lies, to me. A team built on solid pitching should invest in defense up the middle.
I’m not sold on his huge impact offensively, but I think he’ll be at least adequate offensively. Add that to gold-glove defense at a premium position, and he’s worth a sizable investment.
My feeling is that DOB hit it about right at 5/40. It’s the high end of what I’d like to see us pay, but I’m fine with it.
John A
August 29th, 2011
9:14 am
Phil…..you’re absolutely right. As long as JHEY insists his way is the right way, he’ll NEVER be any better than he is now. Andruw only regressed under Bobby, and now we have another cut of the same mold.
Daybed Wagmoe
August 29th, 2011
9:15 am
Looks like a lot of people are in favor of signing Bourn to an extension. Add me to that list.
A big reason for signing him is that the amount of money we should have available. Cot’s Baseball Contracts is a great resource for player contracts, and here’s a spreadsheet of Braves’ players salaries from 2011-2016: https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tujElf32-2d237jk3IzWLsg&output=html
Dan Uggla will be making $13.2 million. McCann’s club option for ‘13 is $12 million. Chipper ($7 million) and Hudson ($9 million with a $1 mil buyout) both have options in 2013. Young guys like Jurrjens, Hanson, Prado, EOF, Venters, and Heyward will all have raises via arbitration. The big payroll concern for 2014 and beyond will be signing McCann to an extension, and I would think that the Braves would want to do that.
Considering how many young starting pitchers we should have in the rotation by 2014, and how many young players we have elsewhere on the roster — Freeman, Pastornicky, Heyward, Prado — the Braves should have plenty of money available to sign Bourn to an extension, I would think. If we can get him at $8 million, then definitely do it. I think that since it’s Boras, though, the Braves will probably have to pay more around $10-12 million. And since Frank Wren has come out and said that they’re trying to become a more defensive and speedy club, then Bourn is exactly the kind of guy that would be good to have long-term, and $10-12 would be worth it, I’d say.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
9:16 am
Hmm best 3rd Basemen of all time ? It’s tough….
Schmidt- Career OPS .908, OPS+147 , WAR per game avg- .0450
Mathews- OPS- .885, OPS+ 143, WAR per game avg- .0411
Brett- OPS-.857 , OPS+135, WAR per game avg- .0314
Robinson- OPS-.723, OPS+104, WAR per game avg- .0239
Boggs- OPS- .858, OPS+ 130, WAR per game avg- .0364
Chipper- OPS- .936 , OPS+ 142, WAR per game avg- .0348
IMO, if you like WAR than it goes Schmidt, Mathews, Boggs then Chipper. If you like OPS+ it’s really Schmidt,Mathews, Chipper then everyone else.
IIMO, Chipper is the 2nd best 3rd baseman of all time behind Schmidt. He hit nearly as well as Schmidt, but was a mediocre defender as a whole (mostly due to throwing errors). However, the effect of his switch hitting ability cannot be denied. I think it’s enough to allow him to climb over Mathews and Boggs….. It’s close though.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
9:16 am
A team built on solid pitching should invest in defense up the middle.
I don’t disagree with you on this, Mike. But it seems pretty obvious that the Braves are willing to stray from that philosophy, if the offensive upside is high enough. Otherwise, you wouldn’t see McCann and Uggla at their positions.
Random
August 29th, 2011
9:18 am
panamajack (August 29th, 2011 12:14 am): “I think I would take my chances and wait and see what he does next year also see what Constanza and Heyward do next year. I have seen too many players get the big long term contract then fizzle afterward.”
Name ‘em.
” After next season they should have some big bucks available with the retirement of Chipper, Lowe leaving and probably Hudson, lots of money there if we still need a CF and quite possibly they won’t need anything else.”
Maybe the “big bucks” will be available, but will a CF comparable to Bourn be available then?
(August 29th, 2011 1:25 am): “I beleive the braves will need a SS next year, I don’t think A-Gon will settle for a 1 year contract because he can get a long term deal somewhere else and the braves are not going to give him more than 1 year because Pastronicky will be ready in 2013. Braves will have to trade for a SS during the off season and it will have to be someone with just one year left on his contract.”
Braves will likely offer AGonzalez a 2-year deal (perhaps with a 3rd year club option/buy-out), to ease the transition of Pastornicky to the ML. If Pastornicky is all you think he will be, AGonzalez will be his back-up in 2013. If not, AGonzalez will start.
(August 29th, 2011 1:32 am): “I would much rather have a full time 3rd baseman than pay [Jones] $15mil to play part time.”
So, you would rather have a mediocre 3B full-time than a HOF 3B part-time backed up perhaps by a mediocre 3B? Jones is still more than pulling his weight this year and there is little reason now to assume that he won’t again next year.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
9:18 am
when comparing bourn to pierre, another difference is the defense, and thats big.
yeah, i think id do $8mil per.
Fols
August 29th, 2011
9:19 am
I think a large part of re-signing him is how this season ends. For one, he’s a player that gives us a new weapon that may come in very handy this post-season. We’re going to have a very good line-up next season as well…..so management may just think, lets win it all in the next 1-2 years and then you get options.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
9:20 am
Braves will likely offer AGonzalez a 2-year deal (perhaps with a 3rd year club option/buy-out), to ease the transition of Pastornicky to the ML.
Random, luv ya, man, but, if the FO does that, I’d be checking the water cooler for hallucinogens.
MikeInFl
August 29th, 2011
9:20 am
Fair enough, scoots. But, having a big-hit, marginal-defense catcher (oh boy, I’ll hear about that) doesn’t lessen the value of having a gold glove center fielder who’s just a league-average hitter, does it?
If anything, it probably makes it both more necessary defensively, and more palatable offensively.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
9:21 am
DOB, by the way, pierre was with the cubs in ‘06, not the white sox.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
9:21 am
BTW Phil, they said the same thing about Dave Winfield. Big tall rangy guy who the “experts” said “would never develop with that swing” Yeah, how’d that work out?
He’s very young, most players his age are in AA or lower. So perhaps all of this dramatic jumping to conclusions is a bit premature? Justin Upton took awhile to develop (and he didn’t have a thumb and shoulder injury) the mentioned Winfield didn’t break an .800 OPS til he was 25 either. This idea that young players are supposed to show up and be Pujoles or they are a bust is just silly.
El Bravo
August 29th, 2011
9:23 am
DOB, does it make sense for the Braves to wait out next year to see what we really have in Constanza? If he continues to produce at a clip similar to his AAA numbers (.300 AVG. .360 OBP) then we could shift him to center after next season. If Constanza doesn’t look like a viable option then we can make a pitch to Bourn at around the All Star break next year…
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
9:23 am
doesn’t lessen the value of having a gold glove center fielder who’s just a league-average hitter, does it?
Nossir. I’m all for keeping Bourn, when it comes right down to it. Even if this is his career year and his legs start to go at 30+, he’ll still have a lot of value two-three years from now (assuming all the usual caveats on health).
Random
August 29th, 2011
9:24 am
Ward (August 29th, 2011 12:41 am): “Worry about Bourn in the Off-Season,and then start focusing on saving money, by cutting players like Agon,and Lowe,and put that money away for a third baseman for the following year.”
No MLB team can “save money by cutting players” that are still under contract.
(August 29th, 2011 12:48 am): “Focus on Bourn in the Off-season,and also try to get Infante back!”
Infante thru 28 Aug 11 = .278/.321/.363/.684, which more or less represents an expected “regression to the mean” of his career line of .275/.319/.391/.710.
Let no one here ever expect to see again the .321/.359/.416/.775 Infante of last year, much less anything better.
The Braves have already gotten all they ever will from Infante.
DOB Fan
August 29th, 2011
9:24 am
look at the available free agent CF along with Bourn. Tons of talent available.
2013 Free Agent Center fielders
Michael Bourn (30)
Marlon Byrd (35)
Melky Cabrera (28)
Curtis Granderson (32) – $13MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Matt Kemp (28)
Angel Pagan (31)
Aaron Rowand (35)
B.J. Upton (28)
Shane Victorino (32)
DAP
August 29th, 2011
9:25 am
Bay area steve, if you are still around, mlb.com re did their sortable stats recently, and they are really good now. here are all time 3B:
http://tinyurl.com/3r2a26h
El Bravo
August 29th, 2011
9:26 am
DOB, off topic, with Pastornicky tearing up AAA is it fair to assume that Gonzalez will not be re-upped?
hal
August 29th, 2011
9:30 am
schmidt mathews a rod
MikeInFl
August 29th, 2011
9:32 am
Another 2-strikeout inning for JJ Hoover yesterday. Since being inserted into the Gwinnett bullpen, Hoover now has
allowed 0 Runs, 3 hits, 4BB, and 22 K’s in 11 2/3 innings.
Don’t know if we’ll see him in Atlanta this year or not, but he probably should be included when talking about next year’s bullpen.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
9:32 am
4 McFann :Ô: :Ô: 129
Whoa…that must have painful for everyone else. Sorry about that…
Jefferson
August 29th, 2011
9:32 am
Hopefully Braves & Bourn can agree to a respectable deal. Lets not forget the Braves were willing 3 years ago to offer 10mil to Furcal to comeback (hoestly I think Bourn is much better). 40-50mil over 5 years seems very reasonable given the credentials bourn has & obviously he cant really be compared to any current players (avg/obp vs rhp & lhp, steals, defense, etc.).
KK & Mclouth will be gone which will allow funds to be spent on adding 2-4 Mil to Bourn salary as he would likely get 6.5mil or more in arbitration anyway.
Next i can invsion Infante coming back as a bench player to spell chipper or uggla or play a little outfield as well as SS or really anywhere. Hopefully Atl can get that worked out bcuz this guy is a great addition.
Next JJ should get a deal, Tommy(not so much)
D Lowe – GONE, eat half salary and trade or release or mayb D Lowe agrees to restructure last year down to 7-8M. EIther way need to cut that salary down. It was a terrible deal 3 years ago when Atl was trying to give money way and need to correct this.
Chipper haters. Sit down. Look everyone gets hurt, look at Tommy, JJ, McCann, Heyward, Moylan, etc. Thats part of the game. And if chipper thinks the TEAM would be better if he wasnt in the lineup then so be it. He should sit & get healed. I think Fredi has finally figured it out that Chipper should sit & rest atleast once a week (like McCann) to ensure hes healthy and can contribute when playing. No matter what, this is the best clutch hitter on this team and without him this team doesnt have that present on & off field
CB
August 29th, 2011
9:33 am
I can’t believe Pastornicky can be more than 1 year away if the Braves believe he has enough talent to be a full time SS. Why would we sign anyone for more than 1 year unless it is at a low salary? This team has a lot of decisions to make over the next few years, SS cannot be a high salary position.
phil
August 29th, 2011
9:34 am
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
9:10 am
He’s not the present, the past or the future.
So, phil, are you ballgaming the guy, LOL? Bust, for sure?
*************************
I don’t know. I’m just very discouraged with him. When we see what we see in the batter’s box from him and then read what Chipper thinks of his approach, or lack thereof, I get very concerned, not that I wasn’t already. Chipper knows what he’s doing, obviously, and his analysis of Heyward’s approach sounds pretty ominous to me.
I know the guy is young and all that. But we’re 2 years in now and going backwards. He’s not likely to magically hit .280 next year with 25 hrs and so on, but I guess I’ll keep on blindly hoping so that you guys don’t wish me dead…lol!
Random
August 29th, 2011
9:34 am
chuck (August 29th, 2011 4:45 am): “All that young talent is cost-controlled that you mention….only Jair and Mac will need new deals, and with Weaver signing to stay home in Anaheim, that’s a sign that Jair is much more signable than i initially thought.”
Following up on chuck’s stray thought, here is Baseball Prospectus’ Ben Lindbergh (August 23, 2011) on the Angels extending Boras client Jered Weaver’s contract prior to him becoming a free agent:
The Angels locked up their ace for five years for a smaller sum—$85 million—than Vernon Wells had coming to him when they acquired him in January. Of the two, Weaver seems like the wiser investment. Considering how Wells’ season has gone, that isn’t saying much, but even when judged against players with a pulse, Weaver’s deal looks fairly favorable for the Angels. As has been pointed out elsewhere on the internet, the pact’s parameters owe something to similar deals recently signed by Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander; to the disappointment of many a Yankees fan, it seems as though teams are becoming increasingly reluctant to let their homegrown aces be poached to form a Bronx super-rotation at the first sign of free-agent eligibility.
The terms appear reasonable for both parties, with no hint of an overpay by Anaheim; as Tom Tango noted, Weaver may actually have sold himself a bit short. While he got more in total than either Hernandez or Verlander received, he signed away only one arbitration year, as opposed to the two the other pitchers surrendered. (He had been headed for free agency after next season; instead, he’ll have to wait until after the 2016 season to test the waters.) However, he could make up for any shortfall via incentives, and he’ll also enjoy a full no-trade clause.
. . . . .
Weaver has a better track record and prospect pedigree than most of those pitchers [Jason Schmidt, Jake Peavy, Barry Zito, Carlos Zambrano, A.J. Burnett, John Lackey, Kevin Brown, Darren Dreifort, Mike Hampton, Chan Ho Park] did when they cashed in, and the Angels minimized their risk by avoiding the six- or seven-year jackpot that he likely could have commanded had he rolled the dice and remained healthy and effective through next season. This deal looked unlikely to happen several months ago, after Weaver lost an arbitration case with the Angels, prompting at least one pundit to predict that an early payday like this one would not come to pass. There’s also the matter of Weaver’s choice of agent, Scott Boras, who isn’t known for going easy on his clients’ employers.
Question is, will lightning strike twice with Bourn? (Or thrice, if you look ahead to a possible Jurrjens extension.)
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
9:36 am
2013 free agent class is stacked.
CrαZy
August 29th, 2011
9:37 am
Andruw only regressed under Bobby
Really? Did you watch him play at all after he left Atlanta? His best years were in Atlanta it’s not Bobbys fault he lived on Beer and Cheeseburgers!
NickB
August 29th, 2011
9:37 am
DOB Fan- there is a lot of CF talent. Problem is, the Braves really can’t afford the Granderson’s and Kemps of the world. i don’t want to fiddle with BJ Upton’s issues and I think that the Phils will lock up Victorino. Rowand and Byrd are old, Pagan looks , not very good and Melky just sucks…
IMO, when you consider the $$$ required Vs the potential results as a total value package. Bourn is probably the best value CF’er on that list. Cuz, barring a significant drop off in numbers, Granderson and kemp are gonna get Carl Crawford level $$ or more.
Hooter Girl
August 29th, 2011
9:37 am
It’s all a moot point, Bourn will go to Boston to play with his best buddy Carl Crawford, Braves won’t be able to match their money. Mike Schmidt was great, but only the third best behind the great Brooks Robinson and not only for the glove but the clutch hitting and the wins. 2nd was Eddie Matthews but for the sake of argument, maybe they are 2a and 2b.
reckingball
August 29th, 2011
9:38 am
DOB fan@9:24………”Melky Cabrera(28)”???
Why would the Braves want that slug back on their team?
They gave him his walking papers the day after their season ended last year, for a reason.
Melky sux.
CrαZy
August 29th, 2011
9:38 am
CB
Maybe Gonzo will sign a 1 year deal to give the Pastor another half year in AAA.
why not?
August 29th, 2011
9:39 am
Why not sign him if it it less than 10 mil a year………afterall the Brave’s payroll is getting lower due to all the rookie contracts…..next year Gonzo’s contract gone another rookie contract less than 500 thou to take his place(Pastornicky).Constanza or Gatrell’s rookie contract to replace McOut’s….maybe Lowe’s contract gone due to trade????Another rookie to take his place hopefully!………this all adds up in my view to another Great team!
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
9:39 am
I don’t know. I’m just very discouraged with him.
As are we all, my friend, regardless of whether one thinks he is hype or hero.
phil
August 29th, 2011
9:40 am
John A
August 29th, 2011
9:14 am
Phil…..you’re absolutely right. As long as JHEY insists his way is the right way, he’ll NEVER be any better than he is now. Andruw only regressed under Bobby, and now we have another cut of the same mold.
*************
You’re kind, but it’s what Jones said that has me truly concerned now. If a hall of famer was trying to talk sense to me, I would have to think hard about listening to what he says. After all, Parrish, Pendleton, FG, Snitker, etc, etc, aren’t anywhere near any halls of fame with which I’m familiar. Chipper may be a lot of things, but he can certainly hit a baseball. Heyward might want to not only listen but starting doing.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
9:41 am
For Bourn? 5 years/43 million. 7 million in 2012. 36 million from 2013-2016. Much like Uggla, I wouldn’t like the extension, but I won’t lose sleep over it. He’s a good player, but he depends on those legs, and I worry about guys like that when they get into their mid-thirties. He turns 30 next winter, so you’d have him through his age 33 year old season.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
9:41 am
@ Crazy – I actually think Andruw would be a fairly productive corner oF’er if he got a chance to play full time . .782, 827 and .868 are his last 3 seasons OPS….. He’s not gonna hit for a high avg, but he gets on base and still slugs it. he’d be a good pickup for an AL team that needs good corner D and some power but doesn’t need him to bat in the top 4 spots in the order.
CB
August 29th, 2011
9:41 am
Crazy,that would be fine with me at the right salary but Gonzo may not be satisfied with that.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
9:43 am
Why would the Braves want that slug [Melky] back on their team?
Maybe there’s a clandestine group operating the FO that has a man-crush on players involved with bat-munching and bat-licking.
MikeInFl
August 29th, 2011
9:43 am
phil, did you read somewhere that Heyward has refused to listen, to Chipper or to the coaching staff?
I’ve never played baseball at a high level, but I’m guessing that there’s more to it than just being told how to do it.
phil
August 29th, 2011
9:43 am
NickB
August 29th, 2011
9:21 am
BTW Phil, they said the same thing about Dave Winfield. Big tall rangy guy who the “experts” said “would never develop with that swing” Yeah, how’d that work out?
He’s very young, most players his age are in AA or lower. So perhaps all of this dramatic jumping to conclusions is a bit premature? Justin Upton took awhile to develop (and he didn’t have a thumb and shoulder injury) the mentioned Winfield didn’t break an .800 OPS til he was 25 either. This idea that young players are supposed to show up and be Pujoles or they are a bust is just silly.
********************
You make a good point, actually. Thinking about Winfield, his swing of long ago does seem Heywardesque as i think back. Perhaps Winfield had a good teacher or mentor to help him out. We’ll see if Heyward is equally as smart.
I don’t, however, think it’s silly to at least consider the possibility that Heyward is, in fact, a bust until he does something to dispel the notion.
phil
August 29th, 2011
9:45 am
reckingball
August 29th, 2011
9:38 am
DOB fan@9:24………”Melky Cabrera(28)”???
Why would the Braves want that slug back on their team?
They gave him his walking papers the day after their season ended last year, for a reason.
Melky sux.
**************
amen.
phil
August 29th, 2011
9:47 am
MikeInFl
August 29th, 2011
9:43 am
phil, did you read somewhere that Heyward has refused to listen, to Chipper or to the coaching staff?
I’ve never played baseball at a high level, but I’m guessing that there’s more to it than just being told how to do it.
******************
No, I read no such thing. He probably IS listening and trying to change some things. My frustration with the guy is showing itself.
I played baseball in the backyard a lot, so I know my stuff….that’s a pathetic joke for those prone to lash out….lol
Mixxo
August 29th, 2011
9:48 am
Phil @ 9:07 –
Thank you!
Sign Bourn…..release Wayward.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
9:49 am
I get the feeling with Bourn all we are getting is speed and defense. Not sure what he is worth but I would wait at least until the middle of next year. No need to sign him after one of his best years. If he repeats we might be sorry but I have a feeling he will regress to a .275 hitter with a lot of speed. I definitely would like the Braves to sign him but not sure he is worth more than 8 million a year much less the 15 million a year that boras will want for him
hdhd
August 29th, 2011
9:49 am
Fast doesn’t slump. Sign him.
CB
August 29th, 2011
9:49 am
I have been watching Melky this season with the Royals, he started the season almost skinny and has obviously gained weight during the season. He is one fat contract away from being huge.
b
August 29th, 2011
9:52 am
We all know the Braves won’t be able to sign Bourn with Boras as his agent.
I’d take Constanza with his speed over any guy we’ve had out there since Andruw.
Georgie has speed and will hit enough
I still don’t understand why it took him so long to get a callup from anyone considering
the stats he has accumulated. Doesn’t seem like he’s been treated fairly.
miami7
August 29th, 2011
9:52 am
yesssssssssss
reckingball
August 29th, 2011
9:53 am
CB 9:49……That’s a good one, and more than likely, the truth.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
9:56 am
Fast doesn’t slump.
But players do, unfortunately.
CrαZy
August 29th, 2011
9:57 am
Braves OF Bandwagon Carousel
Quick to jump on —– (Heyward)
Quick to Jump off —– (Heyward)
Quick to Jump on —– (Constanza)
Quick to jump off??? —– (Constanza)
panamajack
August 29th, 2011
9:57 am
DAP, checked that list, can’t beleive my favorite all time 3B Brooks Robinson isn’t in the top 50, guess defense doesn’t count for much.
dobearsbare
August 29th, 2011
9:59 am
To me, two things come to mind. First, if you’re moving to a new offensive model — and it appears the Braves are — it would make sense to acquire and retain players that fit that model. Second, if the Braves sign Bourn to a five-year deal, less than halfway into it they’re presumably going to have some other major salaries come off the books (Chipper and Derek Lowe). Jurrjens and Hanson obviously are going to be making more money by then, but the $15-$18 million annual salaries just don’t seem all that likely for both of them. I’d guess the Braves will keep one. Likewise, Prado will be in line for a significant pay raise. On the whole, though, it seems like the money will be available for Bourn on the back end. So yeah, I’d go $8 mill. Might even do 10. The disruptive presence he and Constanza have had has made everybody in the lineup better.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
9:59 am
I don’t, however, think it’s silly to at least consider the possibility that Heyward is, in fact, a bust
Not silly, absolutely. Still, it’s hard to believe that so many smart baseball people could have been so wrong about the guy.
(I include myself in that group, of course, so I have some emotional investment in a return to form, LOL.)
CrαZy
August 29th, 2011
9:59 am
Fast doesn’t slump.
Why hasn’t any teams signed Usain Bolt to play?
Gary O
August 29th, 2011
10:00 am
Braves and Scott Boras will have plenty of opportunities to get to know each other, because Boras represents Bourn, Hanson, and JJ, and I doubt if we keep all 3.
Once in a while, a player will ignore Boras, and make their own decisions. Just recently, Weaver wanted to stay in LA since he grew up close by, so rather than waiting until free agency to get the big money contract, he settled for a more team friendly deal. I think Andruw also gave the Braves a discount on one of his early contracts. I wonder if Bourn will be inclined to take an extension, rather than wait until free agency in 2013.
Personally, if Bourn will take 5 years, $45 mil, I would sign him to an extension now, buying out his last arbitration year. But if Boras insists on more money, I would let him play next year and see what happens.
Fish Bisch
August 29th, 2011
10:01 am
We should be ok even though we were swept in a one game series by the lousy mets. So now the Phillies are the only team having not been swept in a series?
Random
August 29th, 2011
10:01 am
chuck (August 29th, 2011 6:52 am): “Hoss struggles to stay healthy and holds us hostage for weeks at a time during these spells….as i stated, he’s a helluva player when he’s in there, but we can’t count on him for more than 130 games a year…”
So, you’re saying those 130 games don’t count in the final standings?
Who now would you get that would be the equal of Chipper Jones at 3B? Martin Prado?
Are you seriously suggesting that aged veteran Jones is unfairly blocking young sensation Prado at 3B?
Okay — well then.
Who now would you get that would be the equal of Martin Prado in LF?
At what cost?
MikeInFl
August 29th, 2011
10:04 am
So now the Phillies are the only team having not been swept in a series?
Didn’t they just lose a 1-game series to the Marlins?
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
10:04 am
Fish Bisch, I’m pretty sure we got swept in a 2 game series in Arizona as well. I think they are talking about sweeps in 3 or 4 game series
Ralph
August 29th, 2011
10:07 am
Only reason it took so long for Constanza to get called up is that Frank Wren doesn’t read this blog.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
10:07 am
The phrase “speed doesn’t slump” is one of my pet peeves for some reason…
b
August 29th, 2011
10:08 am
Are you all crazy?
Boras isn’t going to let Bourn sign for 8 or 9 million for five yrs. at 40-45 million.
You can FORGET it.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
10:10 am
As far as Bourn goes….. I’m a little gun shy about a 5th year. He’s a great defender and takes good routes to balls. Which means that his defense shouldn’t be hurt too bad if he loses a step or so. However, his lack of power means that he needs to steal bases at an 80% clip to make up for it. Now, many players, tho they get slower, become much better at stealing bases as they age. So, this may turn out to not be a big deal either. I would almost rather go 4 yrs $48mill than 5 yrs $50 mill. Let him depart at age 34 , or worry about an extension then.
Oh and btw, Constanza was a very bad defender in CF in the minor leagues. he’s avg at a corner spot, but plain bad in center, do noooo Constanza as a starting CF’er. as previously stated. His cieling is to be a quality 4th OF’er who can spell all three OF positions. Which is very valuable to have.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
10:12 am
@ Ralph- Yeah ” Speed doesn’t slump” irritates me too. because it does. If you aren’t getting on base the slow walk back to dugout is the same for everyone!
Arkansas Transplant
August 29th, 2011
10:12 am
I don’t see any need to break the bank on Bourn. I might consider some progressive contract.. maybe pay more up front with less on the end. That way we pay the most while we have the payroll room at the same time allowing growth in the future. Something along the lines of 10 in 2012, 9 in 2013, 9 in 2014, 8 in 2015 and 7 in 2016.
PMC
August 29th, 2011
10:13 am
Considering how long it’s taken to find a remotely acceptable center fielder. Yes, a resounding yes, pay the man his money.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
10:14 am
Not silly, absolutely. Still, it’s hard to believe that so many smart baseball people could have been so wrong about the guy.
I mean, it’s not like the guy hasn’t found success at the major league level yet, kinda like Matt Wieters(although he’s been better this year).
Heyward was nothing short of incredible last year. He had a bad June. That was it. He’ll return to stardom next year with some mechanical work and rest for his shoulder this offseason
NickB
August 29th, 2011
10:15 am
btw Constanza’s last 10 games .185avg / .241 OBP/ .185 SLG……. the scouting reports have gotten out I fear
Ralph
August 29th, 2011
10:15 am
NickB — Your @ing the wrong person!
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
10:16 am
would almost rather go 4 yrs $48mill than 5 yrs $50 mill.
Dunno, I think that fifth year is pretty important from the player’s perspective, moreso than the annual dollars.
Fish Bisch
August 29th, 2011
10:16 am
Thanks for clearing up my swepping issues!
raleighbravefan
August 29th, 2011
10:16 am
IF it’s all about money, we probably won’t be able to keep him. It’s totally up to what the player wants. Maybe he will decide he really likes Atlanta.
Jered Weaver told Boras that he wanted to stay with Angels, and to work it out. HE DID what his client wanted. They signed an extension, without going to free agency, and gave a significant “hometown discount” to do so. If it’s more about money, Boras will do his job, and get him the top $$$ the markert will bare.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
10:18 am
would almost rather go 4 yrs $48mill than 5 yrs $50 mill.
I’ll take the 5th year at 2 million
raleighbravefan
August 29th, 2011
10:18 am
Speed slumps with age. If that’s all you got, long contracts don’t usually work out well in the long term.
DawgDad
August 29th, 2011
10:20 am
Sure, it would be great to have him here. His offensive game is akin to Lou Brock and his defensive game is akin to Curt Flood, for those of you old enough to remember them. But the guy is a Boras client, which means the Braves get screwed no matter what. This winter, I’d offer him a five year contract starting at something just under what he’d get in arbitration escalating up to what Boras might think he’s worth at peak value, with player/club options in the latter year. That’s a better deal for him security-wise than arbitration, and if they don’t bite TRADE HIM IMMEDIATELY. Get what you can for him this winter, when he still has some value on the market, and move on.
Sorry to be so cynical, but I just don’t see how the Braves can possibly not get burned by a Boras client.
reckingball
August 29th, 2011
10:21 am
Doesn’t an agent always do what his client wants him to do?
Doc Holliday
August 29th, 2011
10:22 am
I hate to see Lowe go against the phillies…….disappointing.
skep
August 29th, 2011
10:23 am
The guy has been on the team for a month and we are talking about another long term contract. They rarely work out for the Braves or any other team. Boras will out negotiate Wren and we will overpay. When Bourn turns 30 it is downhill very fast for most of the players especially those with fat guaranteed contracts. Let’s give it some time. 80 million only goes so far.
Sopheee
August 29th, 2011
10:23 am
Melky…GAH!
NickB
August 29th, 2011
10:24 am
@ Ralph, I was agreeing with you!!
Randy S
August 29th, 2011
10:24 am
And the stellar show announcements for the newly reopened Georgia Theatre continue. Another couple of DOB favs:
Lucinda Williams – Oct 24
Robert Earl Keen – Nov 6
NickB
August 29th, 2011
10:25 am
Oh it was McFann…. my bad, !
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
10:25 am
Bourn won’t sign an extension for anything less than 4 years. It’s like Uggla. No way he is signing for an added three years. I think 9 million per is reasonable for the extension years. Then just go off of the arb. salary in 2012. 5 years, 43 million. I bet if that were the offer, Boras would take him to free agency. 5 years 50 million is what he probably thinks he can get him. Too rich for my blood.
bustersonly
August 29th, 2011
10:25 am
I think everone over rates The Scott Boras effect, he doesn’t exactly represent a lot of Conrads does he, he targets the high profile guys who would get big bucks without an agent if they wanted to be bothered with the hassle.
David O'Brien
August 29th, 2011
10:27 am
dobearsbare: The money is there if the Braves want to sign Bourn for $8-10 mill per season. Just a question of whether they’ll spend it for him, whether they’re willing to pay that much for the particular type of player he is. And I’m with you — if I’m a team with those specific needs, a team like the Braves, I’d do it.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
10:27 am
michael Why do baseball writers continue to list batting average first when on base percentage and slugging percentage are much better statistics for judging how good a player is? Peirre on base percentage has always been poor, as opposed to Bourne’s,
pierre’s OBP has not always been poor.
and batting average tells you something different than OBP. cant we use both?
Ted
August 29th, 2011
10:28 am
Bourn isn’t a $10MM/year player. Plus, with speed players, there’s great risk paying big money for a player in their early 30s. Besides Pierre, another comparable-type of player is Figgins – who at 31 got 4 years and $36MM for similar skills, but with above average defense at 3B instead of CF. And you can see how badly his age 32-33 seasons have been.
As such, I would not go more than 4 years, but preferably 3 with an option for a 4th. I also wouldn’t go much above $8MM in average annual value – though since 2012 would be his final arb year, this still can be sold as comparable to Figgins/Pierre contracts.
So, perhaps 1) 4 years for $32MM (maybe $34MM) – $6MM in 2012, $2MM signing bonus and $8MM/year for 2013-2015 (or increase each year by $500K for $34MM contract). Or 2) 3 years for $25MM – $6.5MM in 2012, $1.5MM signing bonus, $8MM/year for 2013-2014 and $9MM option with $1MM buy-out. In both cases, he gets more money in 2012 than he would in arb ($8MM) and amortized signing bonus means he’s being paid $8.5-9MM on the books. In both cases, the Braves lessen their risk that he collapses at the end. And should he be the unusual speed player, he hits FA again at age 33 and still able to score another nice contract.
But, if he refuses, let him play out 2012, offer arb and take the two picks if he can find the long-term deal he seeks or else go year-to-year with the guy where he takes all the risk of a bad season. Because after 2012, several other CF of note hit FA – such as Upton and Kemp. Or COL may be willing to trade Fowler as they have CarGo locked up long-term.
At any rate, Bourn is good player but is not irreplacable nor should the team treat him as such. If they can sign him to a fair deal (i.e. around 4 years and $8MM/per), do it. Otherwise, put they should put their financial eggs in other baskets.
JoeFan
August 29th, 2011
10:29 am
Gonzales’ contract has an option year so if the Braves want to wait another year on Pastornicky they can. Would not be surprised to see Pastornicky starting at SS for the Braves at some point next season. Braves are set in CF since Bourn is here for 2012. Beyond 2012, if there is not another answer, then offer him a 5 year deal for $8-$10 million year . Should give the Braves plenty of time to develope a CF internally. They have the money for this with several top heavy salaries coming off the books. If they don’t use the money for Bourn then start the search for quality outfielders including a corner outfielder. Gartrell at AAA may be one answer. Either way the Braves have some time and it looks like the money to make some wise decisions.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
10:30 am
Randy S, I just saw the Drive by Truckers there. The Ga Theatre looks and sounds better than it ever has. They also got a cool little bar on the roof to get drinks before the show.
bustersonly
August 29th, 2011
10:30 am
NickB, but I didn’t say anything about speed slumping, you @ed the wrong guy.
Chris Snow
August 29th, 2011
10:31 am
Sorry but I’m still not sold on Constanza yet. There is a reason he was in the minors for so long (see Brooks Conrad). And he hasn’t looked great since he hurt his ankle.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
10:31 am
Bourn faces a problem tho. As already pointed out, it’s a rich crop of CF talent in 2013. Npw Granderson and Kemp will both set the bar very high. But, they have numbers immensely higher than Bourn’s are in both power and production. Now boras can try to sell the defense and SB’s… But I don’t think he can expect to get $15 mill a year. The big $$$ teams will chase the big 2 of course, but Boston has Ellsbury and idk if the Mets are going to be such free spenders after what all those bad FA deals have done to them… The Yankees will outbid everyone for Granderson probably which will leave the Phillies, Cubs and a few others to vie for Kemp, Victorino and Bourn. i can’t see Bourn getting much more than 5 $50 mill out there. If he was the only name (or was only against Byrd, Rowand and BJ Upton) i could see someone giving him 5 yr $60 mill +…. But not when the big $$$ teams have 2 choices better than he is.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
10:32 am
panama jack checked that list, can’t beleive my favorite all time 3B Brooks Robinson isn’t in the top 50, guess defense doesn’t count for much.
it depends on what stat you look at. he may not be top 50 in batting average, with a career .267, but he 3rd all time in hits with 2848.
you can click on each stat at the top and it will re-sort the rankings.
raleighbravefan
August 29th, 2011
10:32 am
reckingball – If you lisen to the “experts” on the blog, you would believe that it’s all about Boras, and his insatiable ego and lust for money. Actually, the guy is just representing his clients, and he does it very well. BTW, it’s the owners who agree to those “outrageous” contracts.
RC
August 29th, 2011
10:33 am
From Buster Onley’s blog:
1. This story will get some notice in rival front offices: The Royals are willing to deal prospects for starting pitching, Bob Dutton writes. They would appear to be a good match, on paper, with the Mariners, Braves, Diamondbacks and a few other teams. For example: The Braves could be looking for a long-term solution at third base, knowing that Chipper Jones is nearing the end of his career — Kansas City has Mike Moustakas and Atlanta has a nice core of pitching prospects.
I don’t know which of the 4 Horsemen of the Pitchocalype it would take to acquire Moose Tacos, but that’d be a really, interesting trade.
Chris Snow
August 29th, 2011
10:33 am
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
10:30 am
Randy S, I just saw the Drive by Truckers there. The Ga Theatre looks and sounds better than it ever has. They also got a cool little bar on the roof to get drinks before the show.
I wish I could see the Widespread Panic show there in October.
raleighbravefan
August 29th, 2011
10:33 am
To everyone – If you were a baseball player, who would you want to represent you?
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
10:35 am
DAP, Agree. Together average and on base percentage give us a better idea of what a player is than just OBP or AVG only. If you think about it wouldn’t you want a player that bats .300 with a .400 OBB compared to a .200 AVG and .400 OBP.
Murph
August 29th, 2011
10:35 am
Great blog DOB.
Personally, knowing what the Braves have in the system and also knowing what desperation has led them to do in the past (Kawakami, Lowe contracts) I think they need to try and sign Bourn as soon as possible.
Question is, why would he have any motivation to sign rather than test the free agent waters? I’m sure Boras would rather see Bourn play out his current deal and see what he could get on the open market.
Then again, if Constanza can hit over .275 and get on base at a decent pace, is spending over $10mil for Bourn absolutely necessary? Don’t forget too that Pastornicky looks to be on the fast-track to the majors and will likely be on the club in 2013. He seems to be making a case for himself to be the leadoff man of the future.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
10:35 am
I don’t know which of the 4 Horsemen of the Pitchocalype it would take to acquire Moose Tacos, but that’d be a really, interesting trade.
I’d have to stop drooling long enough to say “yes” and “pick one”, but other than that…
RC
August 29th, 2011
10:35 am
To everyone – If you were a baseball player, who would you want to represent you?
I don’t know what any of the agents are like in person, or what their “pitch” would be, but based on the limited knowledge I’ve got it’s hard to not say Boras. The guy knows the game inside and out, and does everything he can to not only get his clients the most money, but puts them in a position to have the most success possible professionally.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
10:36 am
Chris Snow, I saw but was sold out before I even knew it went on sale.
henry from TN
August 29th, 2011
10:38 am
I think the braves should offer Bourn 50 mil. for 5 yrs. no more than 55 mil for 5 yrs….
DAP
August 29th, 2011
10:38 am
some of the all time rankings for chipper are pretty interesting for 3rd basemen. 12th all time in games played. how about that for am injury prone vet?
7th in Batting average
6th all time in hits.
4th in homers, RBI, BB,
3rd all time in runs, doubles,
2nd all time in OBP, slg% and OPS.
nice.
Random
August 29th, 2011
10:39 am
Chris from the Rock (August 29th, 2011 7:26 am): “I agree with bringing Infante back. The Braves miss his presence and versatility. Lugo stinks.”
Infante thru 28 Aug 11 = .278/.321/.363/.684, which more or less represents an expected “regression to the mean” of his career line of .275/.319/.391/.710.
Let no one here ever expect to see again the .321/.359/.416/.775 Infante of last year, much less anything better.
The Braves have already gotten all they ever will from Infante.
Randy S
August 29th, 2011
10:40 am
Yeah, I it pains me to be missing all those great shows (I live in New Orleans now after living in Athens for a good while).
From all the reviews, the new Theatre looks and sounds great and the rooftop bar is a nice touch. I really like that the bar is open to the public during the day.
David O'Brien
August 29th, 2011
10:40 am
Nickb: Yankees have $13 mill option on Granderson for 2013. He’s there at least two more seasons, and will get huge contract after that. Kemp will get massive contract as free agent, and besides, as I said, Bourn fits Braves perfectly because he’s not just a Gold Glove center fielder but also a fine leadoff man.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
10:42 am
I am a little gunshy on Moustakas. If you look at his minor league numbers he has never walked much.. I’m just a little worried that he might end up being too much of a free swinger…. (ala Frenchy) But , he’s only 22 and this is hs first time in MLB . i wouldn’t want him for Teheran , Delgado or Minor. But I might, for Vizcaino , Hoover or Carlos Perez….. BTW, I think Salecedo is expected to be ready by 2014. Prado can fill the gap in 2014 just fine.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
10:44 am
Oh i agree with you DOB. (didn’t know about Granderson’s option) I was just saying that al the talk that he would get $12-$15 mill per on a 5 yr deal is a bit much as his value will be hurt by better options out there. I think that 5 yr $40-50 mill is what he will end up getting.
David O'Brien
August 29th, 2011
10:44 am
DOB, off topic, with Pastornicky tearing up AAA is it fair to assume that Gonzalez will not be re-upped? — El Bravo
No, I wouldn’t assume that, based on a month or two above Double-A. The kid is 21 (22 in Dec.) Braves have had relatively huge success with 21-year-old past couple seasons (though we’ve seen a young star, Heyward, struggle with the sometimes-difficult second season this year). But how many 22-or-under kids has any title team ever had in its regular lineup? I mean, seriously, if Pastornicky were in the opening day lineup you’d have THREE 22-year-olds in him, Freeman and Heyward. To me, that’s just expecting too much to have another kid that young in lineup with so little experience even at the high-level minor league level.
I don’t think Braves would go to spring training without an experienced every-day shortstop.
Batcork
August 29th, 2011
10:44 am
Outstanding analysis DoB. Bourn’s gonna cost an arm and a leg, but we can afford him thanks to the depth of pitching in the system. And we need him thanks to the lack of CF system depth. Looking 5 years from now, it’s unrealistic that we’ll still have all five of Jurrjens, Hanson, Medlen, Beachy, and Minor on board after they are FA eligible. But with Lowe and Hudson long gone by then, even after signing Bourn, we still should be able to afford two of that group of five, and fill out the rest of the rotation with pre-FA studs like Teheran. By the time those studs hit FA (~2017), Bourn’s contract would be up.
Chris Snow
August 29th, 2011
10:45 am
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
10:36 am
Chris Snow, I saw but was sold out before I even knew it went on sale.
Yeah there were only a couple hundred tickets avail for the public. The “guest list” took about 75 % of them. Oh well, I’ll get my fix in Alpharetta and Savannah.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
10:45 am
Kemp is a not a centerfielder long term. He’s pretty terrible there. Plus, the Braves aren’t going to give him what a team like the Yankees, Red Sox or Phillies will. All of which will have potential needs in the outfield when next season ends. Again, I wouldn’t view Kemp as a CF. He is about as bad as anyone out there.
raleighbravefan
August 29th, 2011
10:46 am
RC – Pretty much my point. People have a phobia of Boras, but a lot has to do with the fact that he represents some of the biggest stars in the game, so naturally they receive the best deals. The real villian for the Braves is the payroll limits, not Boras per se.
You are right that he puts his players in a favorable position to succeed.
richie_rich1986
August 29th, 2011
10:47 am
I was thinking along the lines of 6-8mil a year for 5 years. That will take him into the age of 33 which I think the Wheels might start falling off which is he key trait.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
10:47 am
NickB, I can understand your reticence on Moose. As a minor leaguer, he was more in the mode of a Freeman than a Heyward, say, in that he likes to swing at the first good strike. If the lack of walks were due to zone recognition or pitch recognition, I’d worry a little more, too. But I don’t get that from the kid.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
10:47 am
I don’t think Braves would go to spring training without an experienced every-day shortstop.
Which is why I think they bring back Gonzo based on the lack of FA SS’s available…..(ones we’d actually chase after).
David O'Brien
August 29th, 2011
10:48 am
Rico, how are ya? Of course I remember you, man. That was a great show, and it’s cool they’re touring again. Isbell told me McMurtry is one of his favorite performers to tour with, really loves his stuff.
Can’t commit to tix for Oct. 27 yet for obvious reasons (if Braves advance to a certain big series that time of the year).
Random
August 29th, 2011
10:49 am
Michael (August 29th, 2011 9:07 am): “Why do baseball writers continue to list batting average first when on base percentage and slugging percentage are much better statistics for judging how good a player is? Peirre on base percentage has always been poor, as opposed to Bourne’s, that is why so many people said his contract was awful. A team only gets a maximum of 27 outs in a regulation game, so each out is precious.”
Totally agree.
And the “At Bat” (”AB”) stat should be eliminated. Calculate SLG same as OBP, based on Plate Appearances, not “At Bats”.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
10:50 am
I’d rather Wil Myers and Cheslor Cuthbert than Mike Moustakas. I’m not sure why the Royals would want to trade their prospects. It made me laugh when I saw it. They should be showing ultra patience as an organization. Cleveland’s move for Ubaldo wasn’t in line with what the organization should be doing.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
10:52 am
DOB, do you think the Braves will approach any of their current players about extentions(other than Bourn)? Like McCann or Prado? I understand they are both controlled through 2013, but I think it might be wise to lock them up longer.
TJ
August 29th, 2011
10:53 am
YES
NickB
August 29th, 2011
10:54 am
The Royals are probably hoping they could lure a “big 4″ away with Moustakas (or whomever)…. I don’t really think that the Braves need a middle infielder that bad. Lipka, Salcedo and pastronicky are all in the pipeline. (now ,sure odds are only 2 of those guys will end up as solid major leaguers but you can’t know which one it will be) All i’ve read seems to say that the franchise is very high on Salcedo as the 3b of the future. With Chipper coming back in 2012 at least and prado lurking, i see no reason to make any moves for 3b.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
10:54 am
random Calculate SLG same as OBP, based on Plate Appearances, not “At Bats”.
cant do that fairly without completely changing how the stat is calculated. youd have to give a player total bases for walks. being walked doesnt exactly mean slugging, does it? no, i think the slugging stat using ABs is fine.
BUT, maybe you could invent a new stat that adds walks and maybe SB to total bases. call it…total base %.
but, no reason to “eliminate” anything.
CrαZy
August 29th, 2011
10:55 am
Wait…. I thought Julio Lugo was the plan for SS next year?
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
10:55 am
not sure why the Royals would want to trade their prospects.
Nor am I, considering that they have pitching on the way, also.
I know you love the Myers kid, but I’d still rather have Prado in LF and Moose at 3B, than Myers in LF and Prado at 3B. Can’t really put together a solid argument as to why, LOL, but there you go.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
10:56 am
I think the issue with Bourn is that he’s probably not going to perform to the level that the next contract will pay him, at least not for the Braves (unless they somehow got a new owner that spent like the upper-echelon teams and didn’t worry about less-than-ideal contracts).
Bourn obviously doesn’t have much power and, while he’s solid at drawing walks, he’s not outstanding at it. So when his bat speed goes, he’s probably not going to be able to get on base at a very high rate. But he’ll still be plenty fast and have plenty of defensive value. I think Nate McLouth is a decent comparison, as far as offensive value. He’ll have more speed and less power and probably won’t walk quite as much. I just don’t think he’ll be worth what the Braves would have to pay him and offer him in terms of years. I think by the second or third year, he’ll just look okay.
CrαZy
August 29th, 2011
10:57 am
Efrim, I think thats a next off-season problem.
panamajack
August 29th, 2011
10:58 am
Braves should try and get Brett Lawrie as a future 3B from the Blue Jays, worth giving up a good prospect.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
10:59 am
@ DAP – that’s an interesting idea, but then again, you’d have to take a total base away for a caught stealing too…..
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
11:00 am
Anyone see this? http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=4843
I think this is one of the best and most reasonable pieces I’ve read regarding what has been the hot topic over the last month or so.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
11:01 am
I like Prado at third, for some reason. Don’t like him as much in LF. Honestly, I still think it’s foolish to trade Jurrjens if Hanson’s shoulder is a wreck.
I read CAC’s twitter and how he thought that it doesn’t make sense to exercise Hudson’s option in 2013. This is where things get a little ridiculous with the prospects. I completely understand that we have all of these kids down there, but you’re really asking for it if you have a bunch of 27 year old and unders in the rotation. Just my opinion there. I think Peter gets prospect/service time crazy once in a while…..not that I don’t, just it may be a little overboard in this example.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
11:02 am
panamajack, Blue Jays aren’t trading Lawrie unless they get something like one of the stud young pitchers. He’s been up, what, 2-3 weeks, if that? So he’s cheap and under team control for a long time. He isn’t some veteran that the Blue Jays are going to trade to build for their future. He is a piece of their future.
extremus
August 29th, 2011
11:03 am
As the Braves had shown the past few seasons, you can have ample power throughout the lineup and still have an excruciating time trying to score runs without the element of speed. Since Bourn and Constanza came to the lineup the Braves’ offensive output (and general sense of excitement from a fan’s perspective) has been greatly helped. Bourn has helped the Braves is this regard more than Pence’s addition has so far helped the Phillies, I believe, simply from the standpoint that the Braves needed speed MUCH more.
That said, if it can be done then ABSOLUTELY extend Bourn’s contract; while he’ll most likely cool off, Constanza has also become a fan favorite and has the tools to stick around for awhile as well.
PMC
August 29th, 2011
11:05 am
Frank Wren has stated several times that they want to become a team going forward that is built around speed.
I’m not sure he even goes out and gets Bourn if he had no intention of keeping him around.
RC
August 29th, 2011
11:05 am
raleighbravefan,
I do find it funny that people get so upset when Boras gets a big deal for a client, yet have no problem with ownership keeping that money. As long as the Braves are able to stay competitive, I’d much rather Derek Lowe receive his $15 million a year than for it to go back to Liberty Media (who ironically, has been one of the better owners in baseball the past few years…much better than many “private” owners like Loria and the McCourts…or Drayton Lane….or the former Texas owner…).
DAP
August 29th, 2011
11:05 am
so shaun, based on the need the braves have, is signing bourn a good idea? what would be the cap on what the braves should pay bourn?
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
11:06 am
Efrim, I think it has as much to do with Hudson’s likely value in 2013 and that it probably won’t match what the contract is due to pay him as it does the Braves’ young pitching.
Also, 27 is not exactly young in baseball terms? If you have some 27-year-olds, as long as they are pretty good, that’s just fine.
Doug
August 29th, 2011
11:07 am
Ed Mathews was my child hood hero, I’ll take him over any third baseman ever. Chipper is super but Mathews was as good a fielder, maybe better and had more power than Jones. Both had the same leadership quality.
If we can afford Bourn ( it’s not our money gang) he makes sense, the Braves may not be a fan of Boros ( Furcal mess this spring) but renting players is a bad idea. You give up to many prospects/suspects, you can never have enough pitchers even in the lower minors.
Jaun Pierre… brutal glove, but probably helps win more than he cost the Sox defensively.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
11:08 am
Efrim, I think thats a next off-season problem.
You’re probably right, but it may be more expensive at that time.
Tomas
August 29th, 2011
11:09 am
DOB, I think you might have underestimated Bourn. I think the Juan Pierre contract is a good comparison from the offense standpoint but not the defense, and that contract was bad in large part because Pierre became a LF. Bourn won’t turn into a LF because he has a much stronger arm than Pierre. Now you also have to consider the value of speed in todays game, Carl Crawford and Jose Reyes certainly have power, but what gets them the big bucks is their speed and defensive skills.
Bourn plays a premier position at a premier level. You’re talking about the 4th best CF in the national league behind Matt Kemp, Andrew McCutchen, and Shane Victorino. Add to the fact he is a great leadoff hitter, you’ve got yourself a very valuable player.
I say try fo an extension, even though I know Boras is tough to negotiate extensions with, offering something like 5 yrs 50 million. 7 million in 2012, 10 million in 2013, 11 million in 2014, 11 million in 2015, 11 million in 2016. And that would be a discount
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
11:09 am
DAP, well, Boras is probably going to want, not quite what an elite centerfielder would get, but what an all-star centerfielder would get, I’m guessing. But I don’t think Bourn is likely to perform like an legit all-start type centerfielder by the time the second or third year of his next contract rolls around. I think he’ll be something like a solid second-division type centerfielder at that point but he’ll be getting paid like a really good first-division type centerfielder.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
11:10 am
NickB but then again, you’d have to take a total base away for a caught stealing too…..
thats right. i could see tb% being a pretty useful summation of a player’s performance. of course, i would never want to do away with any of the current stats.
Murph
August 29th, 2011
11:10 am
Keep in mind that once Bourn hits 30 it’s all downhill from there. It’s a statistical fact (pay no attention to Uggla pushing towards his career high in HR… that is luck).
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
11:11 am
I think it has as much to do with Hudson’s likely value in 2013 and that it probably won’t match what the contract is due to pay him as it does the Braves’ young pitching.
He’s got a 9 million dollar option, and he’s been worth something like 14 mill according to fangraphs so far this year. He’d have to really tank in 2012 for that option not to be picked up.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
11:13 am
I have been away from the blog and sporting news recently….
ANY UPDATES ON HANSON?
I heard he had a torn rotator cuff and was out for a few weeks…Is this correct? If it is a torn rotator wouldn’t he be done for the season?
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
11:14 am
but you’re really asking for it if you have a bunch of 27 year old and unders in the rotation.
More a matter of experience than age, but I get what you’re saying and I totally agree.
Doc Holliday
August 29th, 2011
11:14 am
I think Braves need to spend in the OF anyway, so why not sign a player that is already helping the team win?
I think 8.10M is reasonable.
Braves OF uncertainty demand monetary actions, specially in CF…………i would spend in bourn.
Constanza is not a proven player, but would be a great 4th OF. Id do that and get rid of conrad and keep hinske as a 1B back up and get a middle infielder ……….a little more solid that Conrad.
raleighbravefan
August 29th, 2011
11:16 am
It’s hard for “speed” guys to maintain high value as they age…Ricky Henderson not withstanding.
Tomas
August 29th, 2011
11:18 am
Signing Bourn until age 33 or 34 wouldn’t be bad at all
Bob the Blogger
August 29th, 2011
11:18 am
I think the Braves should make a serious effort to sign Bourn to a 4-5 year deal this winter, but also be willing to say “no” to a bad deal, which Boras will undoubtedly propose. Bourn is a game changer, and you have to count his defense into the equation. As DOB pointed out, not many players can compare to what he does. Wren has mentioned many times that speed is a key component of his design, so I think the Braves will try to sign him. I just hope they don’t get desperate like they did when signing Lowe. Too much money for a good player is not a good deal.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
11:20 am
@ DAP- let’s see how that workss I’m gonna compare a consistently good slugger like say Prince Fielder with a guy who gets on base a lot and steals a lot (Carl Crawford ) will use 2010 stats as they both had good seasons….. gimme a sec
Prince TB%- .542
Crawford TB%- .578
kinda surprising, heck I will compare Pujols and see how that looks too from 2010
Pujols TB% .661 wow
DAP
August 29th, 2011
11:22 am
doug Chipper is super but Mathews was as good a fielder, maybe better and had more power than Jones.
eddie matthews career slg% is .509.
chipper jones career slg% is .533
matthews hits more homers, but chipper has him beat in doubles by about 220, and counting. meanwhile, matthews only out homered chipper by about 60, and thats shrinking. also, chipper kills matthews in batting average. matthews is 52nd all time, chipper is 7th.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
11:22 am
It’s hard for “speed” guys to maintain high value as they age
The nature of all long-term contracts is that you pay a premium for the early years of the contract, that premium being a degradation of performance in the later years of the contract. You give more years for (hopefully) fewer annual dollars, making the value of the player higher during his (probably) higher-performing early years.
I think that, if you look at the value of players (with WAR, or the like) over all years of a contract, you would find they were underpaid is some years and overpaid in others. Just the nature of the beast.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
11:23 am
shaun, thanks for the response, but that didnt really an answer. what would it be worth to the braves? ignore for a moment what you think he WILL get. whats the highest frank wren should go. im not gonna hold you to it, just give me your thought.
Another Clueless Braves Blogger
August 29th, 2011
11:25 am
Bourn is a Gold Glove outfielder, excellent lead off hitter, and elite base stealer. Let him go and save the money for McClouth. But seriously folks, if the Braves can lock up Bourn for another 3-5 years, they should do it. He can only help their young pitchers gain confidence. We also will be jettisoning McClouth’s and Kawakami’s salaries after this year, and Lowe’s and Chipper’s after next year, so the big bucks are there for Bourn (and Greedo Boras).
Arkansas Transplant
August 29th, 2011
11:26 am
Just so everyone knows…I’m not going to point a finger and call them out but can anyone name this person?
An expert is a man who tells you a simple thing in a confusing way in such a fashion as to make you think the confusion is your own fault.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
11:27 am
but that didnt really an answer
wow. how about that engrish, hunh guys?
DAP
August 29th, 2011
11:27 am
NickB, i calculated a few tb% myself.
Chipper Jones (career) .605
Michael Bourn (2011) .495
Brian McCann (2011) .563
raleighbravefan
August 29th, 2011
11:28 am
Biggest problem with baseball, IMO (besides the fact that the commissioner and people running the sport are short-sighted morons) are the economics. 3-4 teams with “elite” payrolls are able to “buy” teams, and pay players overinflated salaries, which other teams cannot compete with. A mid-payroll team like the Braves stays competitive, only because they are an elite organization, in spite of payroll. (excellent scouting and player developement).True small market teams don’t have a prayer, except for the occational (or rare) year where a group of cheap young players may come together for a year or two, and then become too expensive to keep. Those teams are CONSTANTLY rebuilding.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
11:29 am
NickB, im sure crawford’s was so big because SBes were given some value.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
11:29 am
dang Chipper’s TB% seems elite……. Oh dear, two stat nerds have a new number to fdle with!! :-p
rico43
August 29th, 2011
11:29 am
I’ve come around. Bourn reminds me of Brett Butler at his peak, and that’s a man I would sign long-term. Five years — do it.
JRW
August 29th, 2011
11:30 am
I just don’t see Boras going with a long term deal before testing the open Free Agency market. Players sign with Boras for one reason. $$$. He gets it for them. I would have to believe Bourn takes Arb money this year and will hit Free Agency asking from $12-15 per year for 5 minimum. Boras clients historically just do not sign long term without testing the waters first.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
11:31 am
NickB, im sure crawford’s was so big because SBes were given some value.
Whereas I’m pretty sure that having a career power year had a lot more to do with it.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
11:34 am
raleighbravesfan .True small market teams don’t have a prayer, except for the occational (or rare) year where a group of cheap young players may come together for a year or two, and then become too expensive to keep. Those teams are CONSTANTLY rebuilding.
i think they have a prayer if they have decent owners and work smart. teams like the marlins and royals and pirates struggle because they have crappy owners who rake in revenue sharing money instead of putting it back into the team. remember the scandal with the marlins a couple of years ago? they arent the only ones. revenue sharing really helps, and the more money you spend, the more you give to other teams (luxury tax). i think the system is decent, and its not the yankees fault that the royals suck.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
11:36 am
DAP -
Babe Ruth- .740
Ted Williams- .706
Lou Gehrig- .680
Hank Aaron- .604
Stan Musial- .612
Hmmm, pretty interesting stuff
DAP
August 29th, 2011
11:37 am
scoots Whereas I’m pretty sure that having a career power year had a lot more to do with it.
no, probably not. had more to do with prince having a down year, power wise, along with crawford gaining nearly 40 extra bases with the SB.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
11:38 am
NickB , what is TB%?
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
11:39 am
I must have misread something somewhere, DAP.
I’m think I responded to something totally off the track. Ignore me.
Kip
August 29th, 2011
11:39 am
He and Constanza are like a double-jab to the kidney batting two spots apart. I look for Constanza to stay a while and I hope Bourn does as well built
bfred
August 29th, 2011
11:39 am
In today’s game speed and defense are once again critical. There’s a reason he would have hit in with, for example, those 80s Cardinals teams – they excelled in the period before the steroid era. So we have a guy whith those tools at a critical position where we have no obvious minor league talent. Why is this even a question?
Plus remember that everything Bourn has done has been for the Astros. No lineup protection and fewer guys to drive him in. His numbers already seem to be improving in Atlanta.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
11:40 am
Barry Bonds – .707
and it’s interesting to note, that he edges out Ted Williams by a rounded up 5 including 373 stolen bases added. That’s how great a hitter Teddy Ballgame was!
Another Clueless Braves Blogger
August 29th, 2011
11:40 am
Arkansas Transplant August 29th, 2011 11:26 am
Just so everyone knows…I’m not going to point a finger and call them out but can anyone name this person?
An expert is a man who tells you a simple thing in a confusing way in such a fashion as to make you think the confusion is your own fault.
either Dick Cheney or Cartman.
Chris Snow
August 29th, 2011
11:42 am
The answer is yes. We certainly need the speed he gives us in the line up. My worry has been with Prado. The # 2 spot hasn’t been easy for him.
Chris Snow
August 29th, 2011
11:44 am
Also I wish there was a way for Prado to only play ONE position. Him moving from 3rd to LF is not exactly giving him to chance to master either position.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
11:45 am
timthebrave, TB% is a made up stat…made it up today. its TB+(SB-CS)+BB / PA
(Philly)Hater
August 29th, 2011
11:50 am
Shreeeek!!! Did someone mention Melky???? Please no, please!!
That dude couldn’t hit a tee ball when he was here
(Philly)Cheesesteak Lover
August 29th, 2011
11:51 am
Melky is awesome!
NickB
August 29th, 2011
11:52 am
DAP- all stats are made up!
I actually think it’s pretty good ….. maybe it overvaules SB’s…. but a single and a SB are the same as a double with the bases empty
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
11:57 am
shaun, thanks for the response, but that didnt really an answer. what would it be worth to the braves? ignore for a moment what you think he WILL get. whats the highest frank wren should go. im not gonna hold you to it, just give me your thought.
DAP, I think the highest Wren should go is the contract of a fairly solid second-division type centerfielder. Anything more than that, is not worth it for the Braves, in my view. Now if he’ll take 2 years, that changes things some. Then maybe you go whatever the going rate is for a decent first-division centerfielder. But I think Boras and Bourn are probably looking for 4-5 years.
Kat
August 29th, 2011
11:57 am
A dock w/ two boats attached just floated down the Hudson..and then broke in half when it hit the bridge. Irene may be over the the flooding up north of NYC hasn’t even hit it’s peak.
http://img828.imageshack.us/img828/8559/384894466.jpg
Tomas
August 29th, 2011
11:57 am
Anybody saw the throw by Ankiel yesterday? That dude has the best OF arm in baseball by far
(Philly)Hater
August 29th, 2011
11:58 am
Dude, for real?? How could anyone like a player named “Melky”…even if he was good!!
Sopheee
August 29th, 2011
11:58 am
Not to mention he looked like a ballerina in the OF. So many pretty twirls.
reckingball
August 29th, 2011
11:58 am
Cheesesteak Lover@11:51……..I can see why a phillies fan would love Melky.
reckingball
August 29th, 2011
12:01 pm
Melky helped the Phillies win the division last year.
reckingball
August 29th, 2011
12:02 pm
Looked like a fat ballerina.
monty
August 29th, 2011
12:08 pm
Forget signing Bourne long-term, we can’t afford him. Just bring Schafer back in 2013. He’ll be alot cheaper and hit about like Bourne. He’s up to .280.357.757 with Houston. 3 steals in 7 games with them. That’s about a 70 steal pace over the course of a season.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
12:11 pm
shaun I think the highest Wren should go is the contract of a fairly solid second-division type centerfielder
which is…? i guess youre thinking that decided by the market so we cant know yet, but is there a ballpark figure?
kozysnacker
August 29th, 2011
12:13 pm
Bourn (28)
Career: .272/.338/.359, 89 OPS+
2011: .302/.359/.394, 111 OPS+
Player X (27):
Career: .268/.355/.371, 93 OPS+
2011: .269/.349/.380, 95 OPS+
Player X is Brett Gardner, who also possess plus-plus speed and great defensive range. Would you pay $40 million over five years for Gardner? With Uggla’s monster contract already in the books for another four years, it would likely be a mistake to lock up Bourn beyond 2012.
wreckbuzz
August 29th, 2011
12:18 pm
Ideally they’d go fewer years, maybe a higher annual value. $10 million a year for 4 years with an option for a 4th year.
T.C
August 29th, 2011
12:20 pm
@ AROUND THE HORN,why would you say sign him at a reasonable price? the money’s not coming out of your pocket.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
12:20 pm
It’s hard for “speed” guys to maintain high value as they age
raleighbravesfan, I can’t remember where I heard this but I think people who have looked into it found that, while players certainly slow down with age, speed guys are still pretty fast as they age. It’s hitting that is going to decline. That makes sense, logically, as well. I mean if a guy is really fast in his 20’s and early 30’s, he’s going to slow but he’s still going to be very fast into his mid- to late-30’s. But quickness is going to slow, eyesight may be affected some, so hitting is going to decline more noticeably than speed, especially if a player’s hitting skills weren’t overly outstanding in the first place.
I think Bourn fits into this. Bourn is obviously very fast. And he’s a very good hitter for an elite-defending centerfielder right now. But his hitting skills are not overly great so his hitting skills will likely drop noticeably with age while his speed, while it will decline, will not be average or below-average.
Random
August 29th, 2011
12:20 pm
ncscoots (August 29th, 2011 9:20 am): ” [R:] ‘Braves will likely offer AGonzalez a 2-year deal (perhaps with a 3rd year club option/buy-out), to ease the transition of Pastornicky to the ML.’
“[R], luv ya, man, but, if the FO does that, I’d be checking the water cooler for hallucinogens.”
Hmmmmm.
Well, okay, but I can’t help but wondering why you wouldn’t also check my water cooler as well.
Is it that much of a foregone conclusion?
PS: Two years for AGon!
PPS: Lowe will not be traded.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
12:25 pm
DAP, honestly I don’t memorize contracts, so I’d have to do some research to get specific numbers. But I know Bourn and Boras will likely ask for a contract that matches the going rate for top 7 or so centerfielders. But I think over the length of his next contract that he’ll be closer to one of the 15-20 best centerfielders.
wreckbuzz
August 29th, 2011
12:28 pm
Something to remember about Frank Wren…he gave a 31 year old Dan Uggla a 5 year deal that will last thru age 35. And Uggla is a slugger, who’s skills would be more effected by age than a speedster/slap hitter like Bourn. A 5 year deal for Bourn would take him to age 34. So I think the Braves can roll the dice with a 4-5 yr deal at $10m per. Salaries for Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Chipper Jones will come off the books in the next couple of years as younger guys like Jurrjens and Hanson approach arbitration years and free agency. So the Braves are in position to make this deal and stay in their payroll level.
But also what a lot of people don’t talk about is the fact that Liberty Media will be free to sell the Braves starting this winter having satisfied the required timeframe of ownership to reap the tax benefits of taking the Braves property as part of the transaction of their sale of Time Warner stock. Which means the Braves very likely could be under new ownership before they have to make any rash decisions about Jurrjens and Hanson vis a vi free agency.
Bob the Blogger
August 29th, 2011
12:29 pm
Fun facts: Bourn has a career OBP of .338, and McLouth has a career OBS of .337. Bourn has a career OPS of .699, and McLouth has a career OPS of .764.
athbrave
August 29th, 2011
12:32 pm
Of course Boras will try to bend the Braves over a stump…that’s his job! Wren’s is to have a ceiling going into negotiations and not exceed it.
Should they try to extend him? Absolutely. He’s so much fast than Andruw, he gets to balls on the run, making it look easy. Andruw, while a good fielder, was always a little heavy and constantly had to dive for balls, making the highlight reels, simply because he didn’t have Bourn’s (or Constanza’s) speed. You can’t coach speed, and it’s nice not having to wait on a homerun to win a game.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
12:33 pm
kozysnacker Player X is Brett Gardner, who also possess plus-plus speed and great defensive range. Would you pay $40 million over five years for Gardner?
actually i might, if i thought gardner was a GG CFer.
im kinda on the fence about bourn, but id say that $40 for 5 would need to be considered pretty hard.
Random
August 29th, 2011
12:36 pm
Jefferson (August 29th, 2011 9:32 am): “Next i can invsion Infante coming back as a bench player to spell chipper or uggla or play a little outfield as well as SS or really anywhere. Hopefully Atl can get that worked out bcuz this guy is a great addition.”
Infante thru 28 Aug 11 = .278/.321/.363/.684, which more or less represents an expected “regression to the mean” of his career line of .275/.319/.391/.710.
Let no one here ever expect to see again the .321/.359/.416/.775 Infante of last year, much less anything better.
The Braves have already gotten all they ever will from Infante.
cosmo
August 29th, 2011
12:37 pm
I think we should sign Bourn in arbitration for 2012 then if he has a good first half – try to lock him up – one month so far is just a small glimpse- how does Georgie compare in the field- ? in the future as he matures – Bourn will slow down but will probably pack a little more power
Bill
August 29th, 2011
12:41 pm
Well. YES sign him before next year……
RemoW
August 29th, 2011
12:42 pm
Got to say, this is one of the best commented blogs all year. I have read just about every post and it is all really solid with some minor exceptions. I have really enjoyed it.
For the record: Chipper 2nd all time works due to his switch hitting and solid defense. No disrespect for Mathews but I believe that the pitching has been superior during Chipper’s run. He is 2nd all time among 3rd basemen with a .533 slg%, 936 ops, 4th in HR, 3rd in BB.
It is very hard to discount those numbers. Schmidt was the best package over all. But he is a career 267 hitter.
Trojan
August 29th, 2011
12:42 pm
Random: What kind of numbers do you expect from a utility player?
RemoW
August 29th, 2011
12:43 pm
Yes, sign Bourn!
DAP
August 29th, 2011
12:49 pm
random, infante’s current problem is that the marlins arent using him as a bench player. he is a fine player, and in the role he had with atlanta the past three years, id be comfortable guessing his performance would be much better.
bring him back.
coach13
August 29th, 2011
12:53 pm
THey absolutely should re-sign Bourn. No question about it.
Farnsworthy
August 29th, 2011
1:00 pm
Re-sign him and them we will all be ‘Bourne Again Braves’.
Random
August 29th, 2011
1:01 pm
Jefferson (August 29th, 2011 9:32 am): “Next i can invsion Infante coming back as a bench player to spell chipper or uggla or play a little outfield as well as SS or really anywhere. Hopefully Atl can get that worked out bcuz this guy is a great addition.”
Infante thru 28 Aug 11 = .278/.321/.363/.684, which more or less represents an expected “regression to the mean” of his career line of .275/.319/.391/.710.
Let no one here ever expect to see again the .321/.359/.416/.775 Infante of last year, much less anything better.
The Braves have already gotten all they ever will from Infante.
==========================================
Jefferson (August 29th, 2011 9:32 am): “Chipper haters. Sit down. Look everyone gets hurt, look at Tommy, JJ, McCann, Heyward, Moylan, etc. Thats part of the game. And if chipper thinks the TEAM would be better if he wasnt in the lineup then so be it. He should sit & get healed. I think Fredi has finally figured it out that Chipper should sit & rest atleast once a week (like McCann) to ensure hes healthy and can contribute when playing. No matter what, this is the best clutch hitter on this team and without him this team doesnt have that present on & off field”
Hear, hear!!!
If ever I were to “cosign” a comment, it would be this one.
Thanks, Jefferson.
====================================
CB (August 29th, 2011 9:33 am): “I can’t believe Pastornicky can be more than 1 year away if the Braves believe he has enough talent to be a full time SS. Why would we sign anyone for more than 1 year unless it is at a low salary? This team has a lot of decisions to make over the next few years, SS cannot be a high salary position.”
Braves will likely offer AGonzalez a 2-year deal (perhaps with a 3rd year club option/buy-out), to ease the transition of Pastornicky to the ML. If Pastornicky is all you think he will be, AGonzalez will be his back-up in 2013. If not, AGonzalez will start.
Farnsworthy
August 29th, 2011
1:02 pm
If FW really has a chance to get Infante back–he should DO IT!!
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
1:04 pm
Yes, sign Bourn!
I dunno. Here’s a guy who had a good rookie year, and fell off in his second year. You guys are ready to torch the Braves’ current incarnation of such a player.
Oh, wait. You say Bourn rebounded from that second year? Well, that’s OK, then. Sign him up, LOL.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
1:06 pm
@ wreckbuzz
actually, power tends to stick around a bit longer than you think. Uggla will probably still be hitting 25-30 HR’s a year at age 35. However Bourn will probably not be much more than a good fielding slap hitter by his age 34. He will still have value due to his defense. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bourn’s numbers at age 33 or 34 to be .285/. 340/ .340 which , for CF, isn’t that terrible. But it’s definitely second tier. Uggla should still be well over .800 OPS by age 35 due to his huge power numbers. In fact, though Uggla by that point may be best served as an AL type of player (platooning and DG’ing) The fact that he has struggled for much of this year with his batting and will still post a career high in HR’s speaks a lot about the raw power he has. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit 40+ the next year or two.
Doc Holliday
August 29th, 2011
1:07 pm
4 year deal Bourn
1 year deal Contanza
Conrad Packing
1 year deal Hinske
Lock up Prado as he will be our 3B, looks durable to me (besides Staph, he has durable)
Get MIF help
Rest is set.
Randy S
August 29th, 2011
1:09 pm
Team already has an option on Hinske for 2012.
Constanza is under team control for the next 5 years, I do believe.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
1:11 pm
We don’t need to give Constanza a deal. He’s under control and they can pay him wtvr they want. Remember he’s a true rookie this year.
I think Hinske has an option for next year that will surely be used as well.
Brooks…. I dunno, he doesn’t make much and has some value as a switch hitting PH’er (and he doesn’t cost very much).
Prado is an interesting case for me. If he doesn’t rebound from this mediocre year I see him as a non-tender candidate after 2012. He will get a big raise and IMO, unless he hits like he did in 2010, he won’t be worth it. All his peripheral stats show he hasn’t been much better than Heyward this year.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
1:11 pm
Randy beat me to it
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
1:12 pm
Lock up Prado as he will be our 3B, looks durable to me
I believe Prado has missed as many games due to injury as anyone on the club, in the last two years. And he’s had his share of injury problems, even before that.
Random
August 29th, 2011
1:21 pm
dobearsbare (August 29th, 2011 9:59 am): ”
To me, two things come to mind. First, if you’re moving to a new offensive model — and it appears the Braves are — it would make sense to acquire and retain players that fit that model. Second, if the Braves sign Bourn to a five-year deal, less than halfway into it they’re presumably going to have some other major salaries come off the books (Chipper and Derek Lowe). Jurrjens and Hanson obviously are going to be making more money by then, but the $15-$18 million annual salaries just don’t seem all that likely for both of them. I’d guess the Braves will keep one. Likewise, Prado will be in line for a significant pay raise.”
What makes you so sure that Prado will even be here in 2014?
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
1:22 pm
All his peripheral stats show he hasn’t been much better than Heyward this year.
And yet, I’d call that a matter of the mirror casting a dull reflection. OPS+ and wOBA and others, notwithstanding.
I think this is one of those rare cases where the same numbers do not mean the same thing.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
1:23 pm
NickB, I think Uggla will be above average in the power department for most of the rest of his Braves’ tenure. But he’s never been one to draw a ton of walks or hit for a high average, so I think he’s going to struggle to be a decent on-base guy once he starts to lose some bat speed. I think we’re looking at some Brandon Phillips type offensive seasons from Uggla in the near future: solid power, below average on-base. Plus his defense isn’t good so he may be the guy that takes over for Chipper at third, eventually.
bfred
August 29th, 2011
1:26 pm
I think a better analog for Bourn might be Kenny Lofton.
- Fast outfielder
- Limited power (7.6HR, 6.8Triples/yr)
- .299 BA, .372OBP, .423SLG, .795OPS
Played until he was 40, and was productive right to the end. He was a creator, a terror on the basepaths and a 4x Gold-Glove fielder.
Random
August 29th, 2011
1:35 pm
DAP (August 29th, 2011 10:27 am): “michael ‘Why do baseball writers continue to list batting average first when on base percentage and slugging percentage are much better statistics for judging how good a player is? Peirre on base percentage has always been poor, as opposed to Bourne’s,’
“pierre’s OBP has not always been poor.
“and batting average tells you something different than OBP. cant we use both?”
Sure, why not use both? Keep AVG in addition to OBP.
Only base AVG on Plate Appearances (just like OBP), rather than on the arbitrary and artificial category of “At Bats”.
kreedham
August 29th, 2011
1:38 pm
In the off season can we get a once a month music blog by DOB? McMurtry in Athens (I think Oct) and one I’m going to Bruce Cockburn at Variety I believe on 9/8.
Sign Bourn..dump Boras!
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
1:40 pm
Sign Bourne. Nobody is a sure bet, but he’s more proven than Constanzo. Don’t try to have a “replacement” for Bourn. If Constanzo stays as good as he’s been, play em both. Seems to have been working pretty good so far.
What is WAR?
DAP
August 29th, 2011
1:40 pm
bfred - .299 BA, .372OBP, .423SLG, .795OPS
escept bourn has never come close to putting up that slash line in his career. even in a career year, he isnt close.
phil
August 29th, 2011
1:44 pm
raleighbravefan
August 29th, 2011
10:33 am
To everyone – If you were a baseball player, who would you want to represent you?
******************
Boras.
Amen on the greed thing. The man does his job and does it well as he’s supposed to do.
Random
August 29th, 2011
1:45 pm
Trojan (August 29th, 2011 12:42 pm): ” What kind of numbers do you expect from a utility player?”
Question is, what kind of numbers do you expect TO PAY a (mere) utility player?
Over 4 million a year?
No, thanks.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
1:45 pm
NickB, I see Prado as a player with a lot of average skills and a player who is versatile, which obviously makes him more valuable than your typical player with a lot of average skills.
ncscoots, Prado has the edge in versatility but Heyward has the edge in defense skills, while they’ve been equals at the plate this season.
Random
August 29th, 2011
1:49 pm
Ward (August 29th, 2011 12:41 am): “Worry about Bourn in the Off-Season,and then start focusing on saving money, by cutting players like Agon,and Lowe,and put that money away for a third baseman for the following year.”
No MLB team can “save money by cutting players” that are still under contract.
(August 29th, 2011 12:48 am): “Focus on Bourn in the Off-season,and also try to get Infante back!”
Infante thru 28 Aug 11 = .278/.321/.363/.684, which more or less represents an expected “regression to the mean” of his career line of .275/.319/.391/.710.
Let no one here ever expect to see again the .321/.359/.416/.775 Infante of last year, much less anything better.
The Braves have already gotten all they ever will from Infante.
===========================================
chuck (August 29th, 2011 3:19 am): “So, no let’s not save this money, let’s spend the McLouth and KK saves on arb increases, and hopefully move Lowe to some team who will eat $5MM of his salary, so that we can give that to Bourn.”
Robin Of The Hood (August 29th, 2011 4:16 am): “money will be there with Nate and D Lowe (he’s gone man…no way you keep him when Julio T, Dellgado or Minor could all win 10 games ATLEAST next year)….When you can win the same amount of games for 13-14 million less”
chuck (August 29th, 2011 4:28 am): As to Robin of the Hood: Arb increases will eat up KK and Nate’s salaries…the only found money will be if we can get someone to take Lowe off of our hands at a steep subsidy…you’ll have to wait til 2013…”
Jefferson (August 29th, 2011 9:32 am): “D Lowe – GONE, eat half salary and trade or release or mayb D Lowe agrees to restructure last year down to 7-8M. EIther way need to cut that salary down. It was a terrible deal 3 years ago when Atl was trying to give money way and need to correct this.”
Lowe will not be traded.
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
1:51 pm
ncscoots
Great point about the Heyward haters.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
1:51 pm
@ Bruno
WAR is a sabremetric stat that is used to determine player value. It stands for Wins Above Replacement. It weighs production differently based on position (production at SS or CF is worth more than at 1b or RF due to the avg production at SS and CF being lower across the league) it also takes defense into account to create a simple number of which to compare players. Some people love it, I’m a little skeptical of it’s true value, However, because it is just a logarithm it IS a good tool for comparing players of the same position on the field.
Oh and Constanza is regressing big time. IMO a good scouting report is out on him and he is going to have to work the count more and not swing so much or he’s in trouble.
last 10 games his avg is .185, obp .245 and slugging is .185… epically bad
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
1:51 pm
Random
Why do you keep re-pasting your old answers?
STICK
August 29th, 2011
1:51 pm
My GRANDMAW could throw Bourn out trying to steal 2nd………………..Hold the phone on this guy just yet
NickB
August 29th, 2011
1:53 pm
For a more in depth (yet easy to read) explanation of WAR here’s a link. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/
NickB
August 29th, 2011
1:55 pm
@ Stick
umm, the numbers don’t seem to back up your theory there…. his career stolen base % is over 80%…. that’s plenty good enough. (generally it needs to be 75% at a minimum to be worth the risk)
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
1:55 pm
NickB, WAR is actually a good tool for comparing players of different positions because it takes things like positional scarcity and defense into account. It’s solid for getting an idea of overall value. The biggest problems with it are that single-season defensive stats are often not reliable and it’s difficult to measure the defensive impacts of catchers and first basemen.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
1:56 pm
Some people love it, I’m a little skeptical of it’s true value, However, because it is just a logarithm it IS a good tool for comparing players of the same position on the field.
I knew there was a reason I liked you, LOL. That’s the perfect attitude to take, not only on WAR, but anything else. Each useful in its way, none a Holy Grail. If we could get a few more people on that train (geeks and dinosaurs, both), we might actually be able to have a good conversation about such things.
Props to NickB!
phil
August 29th, 2011
1:56 pm
Fire FG…
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
1:56 pm
Bourn is a good player, and I’d love for the Braves to have him over the next few years, but I’m not sure I’d be willing to pay to keep him here. Ideally, we’d have him for the next three seasons through 2014. After that, could be in for some serious regression. That’s why I’d be willing to give him a contract that goes through 2015. But Boras is going to want a five year deal worked out this offseason that carries him through 2016. That, I’d probably not be willing to do.
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
1:56 pm
Thanks for the work DOB.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
1:58 pm
But I wanted Uggla at a year less than we gave him, and that didn’t happen.
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
1:59 pm
However, because it is just a logarithm it IS a good tool for comparing players of the same position on the field.
Wait, WAR is a “logarithm”? That’s a new spin on it… one might say it takes it up an exponential notch.
Random
August 29th, 2011
1:59 pm
Snotboogie (August 29th, 2011 1:51 pm): “Why do you keep re-pasting your old answers?”
Senility. Lack of focus. Distractions. Senility. Poor memory. Senility.
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
2:00 pm
But I wanted Uggla at a year less than we gave him, and that didn’t happen.
That’s the cost of dealing with players. Almost always the contract is a notch more than one is comfortable with.
phil
August 29th, 2011
2:00 pm
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
1:55 pm
NickB, WAR is actually a good tool for comparing players of different positions because it takes things like positional scarcity and defense into account. It’s solid for getting an idea of overall value. The biggest problems with it are that single-season defensive stats are often not reliable and it’s difficult to measure the defensive impacts of catchers and first basemen.
***************
When I read this kind of thing, I just want to scream….poor baseball. Way overanalyzed…
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
2:01 pm
but I’m not sure I’d be willing to pay to keep him here
And now for the rest of your post. I agree, that is is something to look into, but it isn’t going to be easy to decide. The team has to look at the other options, and if there really isn’t one, then signing him is the better move, even if the contract is a bit scarier than desired.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
2:02 pm
ncscoots, who thinks WAR or any stat is the “Holy Grail”? The bigger issue is those who want to disregard certain stats that have some use because they either have their flaws in actually measuring value or because they don’t perfectly predict the future (as if any stat does). I don’t know of anyone who thinks a stat like WAR is the “Holy Grail” but there are plenty who want to completely disregard it for the aforementioned reasons.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
2:02 pm
But I wanted Uggla at a year less than we gave him, and that didn’t happen.
Thus, I think we can coin a new term, the “Efrim Indicator”. This would be a leading indicator on possible contract length. We take whatever Efrim would be happy with, and add one. This will give us a high probability of predicting what the Braves will actually do.
Reason
August 29th, 2011
2:04 pm
Bobby Cox’s love affair with the 3 run homer was not only inhibited this team’s versatility in the postseason, it was just painfully boring to wait, and wait, and wait for the big home run!
Meanwhile, other teams were winning the World Series this past decade that could manufacture runs in the postseason both ways: the big, timely home run, and the ability to “manufacture” runs with speed that leads to misplayed balls, stolen bases, hit and runs, etc.
Wrong wrong wrong and double wrong.
Most teams that have won the worlds series in the last 20 years have done one thing really well.
Hit homers.
Most of them had no speed at all.
Yankees didnt. Sox didnt.
Extremely high OBP numbers ( Which work the pitchers and get them out of the game faster ), teams that take walks and then hit the long ball win.
Braves have been on a roll since the break right.
Alot of people will have you believe its this unbelievable speed we have now ( never mind that the team is still one of the slowest ) and all that pressure it puts on defenses.
Bull.
If you wanna know why the Braves have played well since the break here it is.
The lead the league in homers since that time. ( Or close to it. They were ahead a few days ago )
Small ball doesn’t win. When you play for one run that’s all your gonna score.
Homers and crooked numbers win games.
phil
August 29th, 2011
2:05 pm
ncscoots – Efrim’s Indicator would be more accurate than whatever this WAR crap is!
Fire Shaun…
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
2:06 pm
Thus, I think we can coin a new term, the “Efrim Indicator”.
I like it.
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:07 pm
Seems to me that Lowe is blown out of proportion as problem for the Braves. Hell, he looks good lately. I’m worried about the rotation down the stretch, but D.Lowe is not what concerns me. If JJ and Hanson can’t get right, we need our other pitchers more than ever right? Or do you guys think they should just throw these AAA guys out there to pitch the playoffs?
DAP
August 29th, 2011
2:08 pm
random Let no one here ever expect to see again the .321/.359/.416/.775 Infante of last year, much less anything better.
The Braves have already gotten all they ever will from Infante.
i know how much you love to copy and paste, but dang! at least when shaun says the same stuff over an over, he uses different words every now and then.
MikeInFl
August 29th, 2011
2:08 pm
WAR, what is it good for?
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
2:08 pm
Anecdotal evidence is heavily weighed towards supporting the “Efrim Indicator” as a predictor. All that is now required are the clinical trials.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
2:11 pm
Reason, yep. Baseball offense is about getting the 3-run homers…well, not literally but basically that’s what it’s about. It’s about on-base and slugging. You can’t separate baseball offense from getting on base and slugging. A good offensive team has to be good at one or both of these. A great offense has to be good at both. These things are offense in baseball. There’s no way around it.
Murph
August 29th, 2011
2:12 pm
Heyward has the edge in defense skills, while they’ve been equals at the plate this season.
I disagree… Heyward is a RF only. He could maybe play in CF if all other CF on the team die of dysentery at the same time, but he’s really only a RF.
Prado, on the other hand, plays a good to very good 3B/2B and a serviceable LF. You can’t separate versatility and skills the way you seem to want to. His skills are what make him so versatile.
They could make Heyward versatile and put him at 3B or C but I’m guessing he’d fail pretty miserably.
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
2:12 pm
All that is now required are the clinical trials.
Dry mouth, headache, and one-year overpayment are the major side-effects that participants should be advised to expect.
Bocefus
August 29th, 2011
2:13 pm
If you guys are looking for an Atlanta Braves discussion board, where you have free speech and nude chicks, check out http://www.deviantsunderground.com. We host rainbow parties, to initiate all new members. Ask for flight, he has no gag reflex. I know the name of the site is horrible and i promise, we don’t touch kids.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
2:13 pm
phil, saying something like “whatever this WAR crap is” is a strong indication that you don’t know enough about it to have an intelligent discussion about whether and how it’s useful.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
2:14 pm
Dry mouth, headache, and one-year overpayment
Guess that means we have to wait until the end of Uggla’s contract before submitting the study results to SABR.
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
2:15 pm
Definitely re-sign Bourn. Guy can fly, play great defense, hit for average, and leadoff. Those all have to be worth something. I’m not sure how much, but we don’t have any other real options in CF.
And it’s really hard to quantify him. How much in a stolen base worth in relation to on base, slugging percentage, etc.
How much is his defense worth?
How much is his ability to hit leadoff worth?
Tough questions to answer and to quantify.
RC
August 29th, 2011
2:16 pm
Murph,
Prado’s versatility was mentioned earlier in Shaun’s statement, treating it as a seperate skill than defense. While his versatility does add more value to the overall roster, once the players are on the field the only position that matters for defense is the position they are playing at that moment. From that standpoint, I think it is safe to say that Heyward is a better outfielder than Prado defensively.
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:17 pm
Without taking a side on SPEED vs. HOMERS…
and without any stats to throw at people…
I do watch the games,and I feel like i’ve seen a much better and more complete team since Bourn and Constanzo have been blowin it up. Can somebody disprove this with stats: I feel like I’ve seen way more errors committed against the braves with these guys hitting/running bases. We have 2 guys (about 1/4 of the lineup) that can walk and then be a third a couple of pitches later. The lineup seems so much more potent and dangerous. I think opposing teams feel this too.
From my perspective, this new lineup is what this Braves team needs to stick with, regardless of who won with what in the past. Also remember, it’s not like they gave up power to get these two. Bourn replaces McClouth/Schafer, who weren’t bringing much power to the table. Constanzo replaces a guy that’s been slumping all year.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
2:18 pm
Murph, my point is that Heyward probably adds value with his defense in rightfield while Prado probably doesn’t add as much value with his defense at any given position, it’s more his ability to play different positions that adds value than him being much better than average at left or third (or second, if he played there again).
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
2:18 pm
The team has to look at the other options, and if there really isn’t one, then signing him is the better move, even if the contract is a bit scarier than desired.
I just hope we don’t keep doing this…
Thus, I think we can coin a new term, the “Efrim Indicator”. This would be a leading indicator on possible contract length. We take whatever Efrim would be happy with, and add one. This will give us a high probability of predicting what the Braves will actually do.
Hah! Love it.
Brave4life-1995 allover again??
August 29th, 2011
2:19 pm
Losing Hanson is gonna end up being a big blow in the playoffs. They need him bad, He was the Braves best SP for the better part of the season.
Random
August 29th, 2011
2:20 pm
DAP (August 29th, 2011 2:08 pm) –
Dang! indeed.
Sorry.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
2:21 pm
I can’t believe the Braves last played on Friday night…..and got owned.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
2:22 pm
bruno I feel like i’ve seen a much better and more complete team since Bourn and Constanzo have been blowin it up.
yup. very balanced.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
2:23 pm
Losing Hanson is gonna end up being a big blow in the playoffs.
And a big blow to the 2012 season and a trade with KC where we ship Jair for Myers and Cuthbert(not Elisha).
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
2:23 pm
“Losing Hanson is gonna end up being a big blow in the playoffs. They need him bad, He was the Braves best SP for the better part of the season.”
Disagree. Jair Jurrjens was the teams best pitcher for the majority of the season and currently it is Tim Hudson. He is probably the team’s third starter in the playoffs. Not saying they don’t need him, but they are good enough to win without him.
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:24 pm
I hardly see JHey and Prado as equals at the plate this year. With the game on the line, with runners in scoring position (or not), braves really need a big hit, who do you wanna see ;up there between the two?
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
2:25 pm
Bruno Brigadoon, it’s not really a question of speed versus homers. It’s a question of getting on base and slugging versus speed. That’s the biggest difference in the Braves with Bourn and the Braves with Schafer: Bourn can get on base and Schafer wasn’t good at it and the team as a whole is hitting more homers since that time (which has little to do with Bourn or Schafer and more to do with the rest of the team playing closer to reasonable expectations in the second half than the did in the first half).
Interesting that you bring up McLouth and Schafer. Those guys weren’t exactly slow, which is a good indication that it’s not speed that changed the Braves’ offense. It has much more to do with having a leadoff hitter than can get on and the rest of the team hitting better than they did early on.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
2:25 pm
And it’s really hard to quantify him. How much in a stolen base worth in relation to on base, slugging percentage, etc.
Not so hard. Every offensive event can be calculated to have a runs value, including SBs. So it’s actually pretty simple to determine relative values of each event.
How much is his defense worth?
Also pretty simple, though more subjective and thus providing a lower confidence level in the comparisons. But it’s done every day at various websites.
In truth, there are ways to quantify most aspects of a player’s performance. Not all of them are high-confidence, though, and there’s certainly some wiggle-room in such an analysis.
Random
August 29th, 2011
2:27 pm
Snotboogie (August 29th, 2011 1:51 pm): “Why do you keep re-pasting your old answers?”
Perhaps more than one comment deserves the same answer, just as more than one answer may be addressed to the same comment.
Murph
August 29th, 2011
2:27 pm
I don’t have any fielding stats in front of me, but I don’t recall many occasions where Heyward has done anything special with his glove. I’m sure the stats show different, but he doesn’t seem like he’s a gold glove caliber outfielder. He’s always seemed serviceable, maybe slightly better than your average RF, but not anything special.
Again, I’m sure y’all will throw 20 stats at me that show otherwise, but that’s what my eyes have seen.
Given the makeup of this particular team I’d also argue with anyone who says Prado’s defense isn’t as valuable as Heyward’s. If Constanza goes down to injury and Heyward finds himself back in the starting lineup, the upgrade in right isn’t all that noticeable. If Chipper goes down and Prado is at 3B, compared to the other options currently on the team, I’d say his value as a 3B replacement outweighs that of Heyward as a RF replacement. Given the current makeup of this team. This year. With these guys.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
2:28 pm
Hanson is the best arm in the organization. Losing him to a shoulder injury is terrible. In fact, other than Heyward continuing to struggle for the remainder of time, I can’t think of a more terrible thing to happen to this franchise.
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
2:28 pm
“It has much more to do with having a leadoff hitter than can get on and the rest of the team hitting better than they did early on.”
That’s why I think Bourn has a lot of value. Just the fact that he can hit leadoff, and this teams NEEDS a true leadoff hitter.
I’ve been looking over the WAR numbers on fangraphs over the last 3 years of NL CFs.
Bourn 13.6
Victorino 13.4
CarGo 12.6
McCutchen 12.5
Kemp 11.9
MikeInFl
August 29th, 2011
2:29 pm
We stole bases much more efficiently in July (pre-Bourn and for the most part pre-Constanza) than we have in August with them.
July: 17 SB, 5 CS, 77.2%
August: 16 SB, 10 CS, 61.5%
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:29 pm
HIs D is worth a lot. HIs ability to lead off is worth a lot. The fact that he’s exactly what the Braves have been needing for years is worth a lot.
Flawless calculations. Pay the man a lot.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
2:29 pm
Bruno Brigadoon, depends on the pitcher. With a RHP, I’d rather have Heyward up there. With a LHP, I’d rather have Prado up.
If you look not just at batting average, and if you ignore expectations/hype/etc., and if you just look at what they’ve done offensively as a whole, they’ve been equal at the plate this season.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
2:30 pm
Disagree [that losing Hanson for the playoffs would be a blow]
There are really only two swing-and-miss guys on the staff, Hanson and Beachy. Playoffs really make that kind of pitchers’ stuff play up. Not having a healthy Hanson most assuredly would hurt the Braves.
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
2:30 pm
ncscoots – Ok, I’ll go with that, so how does a speedy, leadoff CF like Bourn compare to the rest of his peers?
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
2:30 pm
we have to wait until the end of Uggla’s contract before submitting the study results to SABR
That, and pray that the Braves don’t extend Alex for two, or three years just for the sake of science.
phil
August 29th, 2011
2:30 pm
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:07 pm
Seems to me that Lowe is blown out of proportion as problem for the Braves. Hell, he looks good lately. I’m worried about the rotation down the stretch, but D.Lowe is not what concerns me. If JJ and Hanson can’t get right, we need our other pitchers more than ever right? Or do you guys think they should just throw these AAA guys out there to pitch the playoffs?
******************
If we keep hitting like we did the past week, and most of the season before that minus the Uggla tear month, it won’t matter if you and me and DOB pitch….
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:31 pm
July: 17 SB, 5 CS, 77.2%
August: 16 SB, 10 CS, 61.5%
No kidding?!!! can somebody expound on these numbers for me? I’m a little blown away…
MattyRoss
August 29th, 2011
2:31 pm
I think someone else might’ve mentioned it, but did folks notice that the Phillies now have zero off days for the rest of the year. Maybe not a huge deal, but I’ll take it.
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
2:32 pm
There are really only two swing-and-miss guys on the staff, Hanson and Beachy.
Things might not be as bad if Beachy just replaced Hanson’s spot. But Fredi will push up Lowe and Beachy will be the 4th option. And right now Lowe in that position scares me.
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
2:33 pm
“There are really only two swing-and-miss guys on the staff, Hanson and Beachy. Playoffs really make that kind of pitchers’ stuff play up. Not having a healthy Hanson most assuredly would hurt the Braves.”
I think swing and miss guys can be overrated… Jurrjens has the ability to pitch out of jams as well as Hudson. They may not strike guys out, but they get guys out when they need to.
I think a trio of Hudson, Jurrjens, Beachy is pretty darn good for the playoffs. I could also see a guy like Lowe stepping up, Minor getting out a team of lefties perhaps, and one of the kids getting a chance to shine.
MikeInFl
August 29th, 2011
2:33 pm
No kidding?!!! can somebody expound on these numbers for me? I’m a little blown away…
Well, exactly half of it (8 steals, 5 caught) is directly attributed to Bourn. Now, I do believe he’s a better base-stealer than that, but he hasn’t been very good in his brief time in Atlanta.
phil
August 29th, 2011
2:34 pm
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
2:13 pm
phil, saying something like “whatever this WAR crap is” is a strong indication that you don’t know enough about it to have an intelligent discussion about whether and how it’s useful.
****************
You’re exactly right. And I don’t want to know. It doesn’t do one thing to help me make a living.
RC
August 29th, 2011
2:34 pm
While I do think WAR is a valuable method of measuring player value, I do have issues with the defensive adjustments it makes. In my opinion WAR places way too much weight on his defensive metrics, which are somewhat suspect to begin with (pretty sure WAR has Freeman as a terrible defensive 1b, which I simply don’t find to be true).
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
2:35 pm
Ok, I’ll go with that, so how does a speedy, leadoff CF like Bourn compare to the rest of his peers?
Don’t know. That would involve actually looking stuff up, LOL.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
2:36 pm
I think swing and miss guys can be overrated… Jurrjens has the ability to pitch out of jams as well as Hudson. They may not strike guys out, but they get guys out when they need to.
Sh!t happens when the ball is in play. Eliminate that factor as much as possible and we have less margin for error.
phil
August 29th, 2011
2:37 pm
Interesting that you bring up McLouth and Schafer. Those guys weren’t exactly slow, which is a good indication that it’s not speed that changed the Braves’ offense. It has much more to do with having a leadoff hitter than can get on and the rest of the team hitting better than they did early on.
SHAUN
*******************
I actually agree for once.
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
2:37 pm
And right now Lowe in that position scares me.
The alignment of the rotation coming out of this “break” has me worried for that very reason. Currently, I’d have to weigh Minor vs Lowe for the 4th spot in the rotation.
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:38 pm
Shaun
if i look at what two guys have done over the course of the season without looking at their avg., hell, they’re pretty much all the same.
Look at them both without really looking at them, they can both be white.
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
2:38 pm
Man, this stretch of no Braves baseball has serious suction. I hope it help the Braves and not hinder them. Seems like the all-star break again.
DS1
August 29th, 2011
2:39 pm
125 mil for 5 years……. do it
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
2:39 pm
Murph, no one said Heyward’s a Gold Glover. He’s just better in right than Prado is in left and he’s probably better in right than Prado is at third or second. But I agree that his versatility adds value in ways that Heyward can’t because Heyward can basically just play in the outfield.
Bruno Brigadoon, I think the perception that Prado has been better than Heyward at the plate comes from over-reliance on batting average and the hype and expectations surrounding Heyward.
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
2:40 pm
Currently, I’d have to weigh Minor vs Lowe for the 4th spot in the rotation.
Most of us would – but Fredi and team as a whole might defer to his “experienced veteran” factor a lot more in spite of whatever he does in September.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
2:41 pm
I think the perception that Prado has been better than Heyward at the plate comes from over-reliance on batting average and the hype and expectations surrounding Heyward.
You just say the same stuff over and over. I agree with most of it, but it’s your delivery.
Truck Drivin Man
August 29th, 2011
2:42 pm
What the? Here comes Truck Drivin Man.
DS1
August 29th, 2011
2:42 pm
speed kills…….. the payroll budget
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
2:43 pm
in spite of whatever he does in September.
September is the issue. If Lowe pulls it together and has a strong month, ride him into the playoffs. If not, I don’t think anything can be expected of him in October either in the rotation, or the pen.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
2:43 pm
Was Hanson suppose to meet with Andrews today?
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:44 pm
SHAUN
*******************
I actually agree for once.
I’ll agree with that argument too. Bourn and Constanzo are valuable because they get on base. Don’t forget though, that their speed actually helps their OBP a lot more than McC and Schaf. Their speed shouldn’t be discounted.
McClouth was more of a good base stealer than a fast runner. Even when he was a good hitter (with the pirates), he wasn’t the kind of guy who you saw disrupting defenses and causing errors and bunting on and having a lot of infeild hits.
raleighbravefan
August 29th, 2011
2:44 pm
I will guarantee that Scott Boras will come up with a value that quantifies the worth of defense, stolen bases, and hitting affectively leadoff.
raleighbravefan
August 29th, 2011
2:45 pm
$125M for 5 years is crazy.
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
2:45 pm
Starting tomorrow, we have 17 games in 16 days….but we do have two days off between now and the end. As mentioned before, the Phils have none.
salary considerations
August 29th, 2011
2:45 pm
The Braves will free up $7.3 million this year from KK, $15million on Lowe after 2012, but Chipper can get up to $13 million again in 2013 based on appearances in 2011 and/or 2012. Braves have a $9 million club option on Hudson in 2013, and McCann will also be a FA in 2013. Plus some of the younger players and pitchers will add millions due to arbitration.
I say try to sign him before he becomes a FA.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
2:46 pm
You’re exactly right. And I don’t want to know.
phil, I don’t believe Shaun will ever be able to parse out the components of “blissfully ignorant”.
Not in his DNA, I imagine.
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
2:48 pm
Hamels vs. Bailey tonight on ESPN – 7:10
Mark in Guyton
August 29th, 2011
2:49 pm
DOB, Longtime follower of the blog. Always read your articles and stories and peruse a great number of the comments of your blogging followers. Usually find them interesting, sometimes cogent. But, anyway, I wanted to thank you for introducing me to the music of James McMurtry. I’ve seen him come up so often as your closing songwriter. Finally downloaded a couple of his albums and will get the rest when I digest these. What a lyricist; the man has lived a while. I didn’t realize he is Larry McMurtry’s son. Again thanks for your good work and your music tips.
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:49 pm
SHAUN
is Alex Gonzalez comparable to Prado too?
flange1
August 29th, 2011
2:50 pm
Isn’t Cole Hamels on the DL?
smyrnabob
August 29th, 2011
2:50 pm
Remember that the teams can pull up starters from minors after Sept 1. Lets give Teheran and Delgado can do now
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
2:50 pm
salary considerations McCann will also be a FA in 2013
No, he won’t—Frank Wren will extend him before we get that far if he knows what’s good for him!
Truck Drivin Man
August 29th, 2011
2:50 pm
Try to catch the Braves on radio and hear they ain’t playing cause they let a little rain and wind scare them and that they need to rest up. Bunch of pansies…play baseball for a living, then they say they need days off to rest. How about following truck drivin man around when he loads, hauls, and then unloads heavy equipment–aching back and all. No bad storm sent truck drivin man into hiding. I headed west and just got back from Texas with a load.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
2:50 pm
i think beachy has the makings of a very good postseason pitcher. im glad we have him, and though some here think its no bog deal, the possibility of not having hanson to pitch in a postseason series makes me uncomfy.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
2:52 pm
While I do think WAR is a valuable method of measuring player value, I do have issues with the defensive adjustments it makes.
And I think most folks would tend to agree with that, in principle if not depth of effect. Any of the stats dependent on the current state of defensive metrics should be given a little wobble factor.
That’s why I chuckle a little at guys who will analyze two players and use a tenth of a WAR to definitively cite one over the other.
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:52 pm
If you stop paying attention to the frequency at which one person posts stupid sh$% (which is overemphasized anyway), then that person is really just as intelligent as the next guy.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
2:52 pm
if i look at what two guys have done over the course of the season without looking at their avg., hell, they’re pretty much all the same.
Bruno Brigadoon, huh? There’s more to baseball offense than batting average…much more.
Larry30
August 29th, 2011
2:54 pm
The most difficult piece of information for the braves to get around in this discussion is the contract they negotiated for McLouth. That contract called for an option of $10.65 million for 2012. Admittedly, they won’t pick up the option deciding instead to pay him $1.25 million to just go away, but don’t think for a moment that boras will ignore that figure. Bourn is worth considerably more than McLouth. Boras will also know that mclouth’s, lowe’s, and kawakami’s money (about $30 million annually) will be off the books by 2012. I hope they can sign him. Center field and leadoff have been in a vacuum for 6 years.
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
2:54 pm
flange1 – Hamels returns tonight.
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:54 pm
LOL
Truck Drivin Man just came back with a load…
cabravesfan
August 29th, 2011
2:55 pm
Check out Jon Heyman’s picks for MVP & ROY…especially #8 on the NL MVP list…
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/jon_heyman/08/29/award.leaders/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_wr_a3
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
2:55 pm
“He’s just better in right than Prado is in left”
Disagree. Prado has a better arm and doesn’t misplay as many balls. Jason does have the added flair for the dramatic. But saying Jason is a better RF than Prado is a LF is ridiculous. Prado is probably one of the best LFers in the game. There just aren’t that many great LFers.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
2:55 pm
Bruno Brigadoon, speed helps players get on base but there are a lot of fast players in history with horrible on-base percentages. So, again, it’s more than speed.
is Alex Gonzalez comparable to Prado too?
No.
CrαZy
August 29th, 2011
2:59 pm
I do think Bourn should be resigned….. I don’t care how long or what the cost…..It’s not my money. At the end of the day I really don’t care what the payroll is or how many bad contracts we have or how many good contracts we have all I care about is one thing…are we good enough to win? If we win great the FO and management are doing a good job either by being responsible or by throwing enough money at problems until they’re fixed. Thats all on the owner. Why should I worry how he spends his money?
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:59 pm
Bruno Brigadoon, speed helps players get on base but there are a lot of fast players in history with horrible on-base percentages. So, again, it’s more than speed.
exactly, like Schafer. But on the other hand, there are players with good OBP that wouldn’t have nearly the OBP if it wasn’t for speed.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
3:00 pm
cabravesfan—
Nice!!
DAP
August 29th, 2011
3:00 pm
the R in WAR is a myth that changes constantly.
wayne 125 mil for 5 years……. do it
but dude…ryan freel retired.
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
3:01 pm
Bruno Brigadoon – I saw that, but didn’t want to engage with the Truck Drivin Man.
I mean, he’s pissed that the Braves aren’t playing, he’s down in his back, he’s just getting in from a long trip to Texas and he brought a load with him.
No, I ain’t messing with him.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
3:02 pm
MFin04, actually there is no evidence that suggest Prado is a better leftfielder than Heyward is a rightfielder. Has nothing to do with flairs for dramatic. I’m not judging the two on web gems or Sportscenter highlights. I’m judging by the actual evidence we have.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
3:03 pm
Why should I worry how he spends his money?
Because, if you don’t, that automatically cuts down blog posts by a third. Just as there are only a few real movie storylines, there are only three real blog subjects: payroll, lineups, and everything else.
flange1
August 29th, 2011
3:03 pm
Thanks Jimmy!
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:04 pm
Efrim- How’d you make out with the hurricane? I got through unscathed. Lickier than many. Hope you did too.
Larry30
August 29th, 2011
3:06 pm
The reason some of us care about how they spend the money is because directly pay for it as fans. The 4 season tickets I purchased here in Atlanta cost a little over $5200 in 1995, they cost a little over $11,000 this year. In ‘91 a world series ticket cost $65, this year $250 each. And to top it off, you have to live with the contracts in baseball until they are done, no cutting players loose like the NFL does.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:07 pm
Just catching up on the Bourn discussion. Is he from the Atlanta area? Has he always wanted to live in Atlanta? Will he sign for a discount just to be in Atlanta? Has he always wanted to play for Cox?
Wait… scratch that last one, that was just from muscle memory. {:
Murph
August 29th, 2011
3:08 pm
McFann, what will you do if the unquestionable happens and the Braves let BMac walk at the end of his deal? And he goes to the Mets?
Will you be a Mets fan or will you be a Braves fan who roots for BMac on Mets? What about the first time he comes to Atlanta wearing that Mets road uni?
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:10 pm
Larry- It’s not baseball’s fault the Braves haven’t been to the World Series since tickets to those games cost $65. Prices have gone up in this millenium.{:
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
3:11 pm
“I’m judging by the actual evidence we have.”
Which numbers/evidence?
raleighbravefan
August 29th, 2011
3:11 pm
Bourn is from Houston, but who wants to play for them?
CrαZy
August 29th, 2011
3:11 pm
that automatically cuts down blog posts by a third
If I could pick the 1/3 to get rid of I’d be fine with that!!
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
3:12 pm
Bruno Brigadoon, but to post a really good on-base, a player needs more than speed. Even if a player owes most of his on-base to speed, he’s not going to be a really good on-base guy unless he possesses some plus skills other than speed. He needs to hit the ball with some degree of authority to get it past major league defenses or he needs to walk at a high rate or both. A player can’t be a plus offensive player by just hitting the ball on the ground and using his legs, not at the major league level.
DAP, the R in WAR isn’t a myth. Replacement Level is theoretical but it’s based on something. It’s not just a completely random guess.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:12 pm
Murph- The Mets ain’t signing McCann. No way, no how. They still sting from dealing with Piazza as their big bat as a catcher. It doesn’t work in the 2nd half of their careers generally.
Now the Yanks may come a calling for him. But they have stupid money and treat it as such.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:14 pm
That said- I’d be proud to have McFann as a fellow fan. She’s one of my favorites on this blog.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
3:14 pm
Still without power, Anders. Hopefully it’ll be back soon. Connecticut Light & Power sucks. Other than that, okay. Could of been a lot worse…..
DAP
August 29th, 2011
3:14 pm
the R in WAR isn’t a myth. Replacement Level is theoretical but it’s based on something. It’s not just a completely random guess.
its not a myth because its a guess, its a myth because it doesnt exist. a replacement level player is a non-existent entity whos skills change at least year to year.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
3:15 pm
Mac is sticking around. Why even discuss the alternative?
CrαZy
August 29th, 2011
3:15 pm
What about the first time he comes to Atlanta wearing that Mets road uni?
I always thought the world would turn upside down the day I saw a Brave favorite wearing a Mets uni….. Then Glavine signed with em!!
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
3:16 pm
Check out Jon Heyman’s picks for MVP & ROY…especially #8 on the NL MVP list…
Wow! I dont agree with his pushing down Freeman so easily for ROY, though.
flange1
August 29th, 2011
3:16 pm
Anders,
What is the current NY talk on the Madoff settlement as it relates to the Mets? Still looking for 1 billion from the Mets folks?
Larry30
August 29th, 2011
3:19 pm
Hey anders……that’s exactly my point. What in the world was the point of your comment? Let’s see if I can simplify it for you: what players are paid effects prices, we pay the increase in prices if we continue to go to the games, prices have gone up since ‘95, I as a fan am paying more. It’s the player’s fault we haven’t been back to a world series since ‘99. They haven’t won enough games.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:19 pm
Efrim agreed on your 3:15. Glad to hear generally you’re ok after the storm. Not having electricity is horrible. I’m glad I didged that one.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
3:20 pm
MFin04, things like Defensive Runs Saved, Revised Zone Rating, Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average, Baseball Info Solutions’ Defensive Runs Saved and Plus/Minus. A lot of data showing Heyward as the better fielder.
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
3:21 pm
what will you do if the unquestionable happens and the Braves let BMac walk at the end of his deal? And he goes to the Mets?
A questionable move is my releasing Alex Avila to waivers after one bad month (in a non-keeper fantasy league). This is not a questionable move – way way worse. Egregious is one word that comes to mind. Why are you giving is a N8 type situation here?
abeeeewright
August 29th, 2011
3:21 pm
raleighbravefan, August 29th, 2011, 10:33 am … “… who would you want to represent you?”
For the name alone, you have to go with Bean Stringfellow.
Add to that his penchant for avoiding unnecessary paperwork, like filing retirement papers, …
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:21 pm
flange 1 – There hasn’t been much said about the Madoff thing off late. I honestly don’t know if that is good or bad? Either way the Mets clearly are going to be somewhat restricted financially. To what degree? I don’t think they even know yet.
Sopheee
August 29th, 2011
3:22 pm
Don’t feel bad, Snot. CB did the same in ours and guess who got him?
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
3:22 pm
DAP, I wouldn’t call that a “myth” but okay. Still doesn’t negate the value of looking at WAR.
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
3:23 pm
abewright @ 3:21 PM
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:24 pm
Larry- What are you paying for electricity today versus ‘95? Are your lights any brighter? You know, in the spirit of simplifying things for each other.
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
3:25 pm
Don’t feel bad, Snot. CB did the same in ours and guess who got him?
You’re a sharp one to pick him up, Soph. He’s been hot this last month.
But I have a track record. Last year, I dropped Bautista after he got stuck at 21 HRs for 3 weeks. I thought his luck had worn out. He went on to hit 35 more to punish me.I’ll never recover from that.
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
3:25 pm
Anders, I’m glad you made it through. Efrim, too. But, I’m starting to seriously worry about Lew’s place. I hope he’s not under water…
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
3:26 pm
DAP, thanks for the link.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:26 pm
I always thought the world would turn upside down the day I saw a Brave favorite wearing a Mets uni….. Then Glavine signed with em!! (Crazy)
Somehow I don’t remember Glavine as a Met? And people say shock therapy doesn’t work. Phooey!
Sopheee
August 29th, 2011
3:26 pm
Didn’t have much choice, Snot. Lost Molina for a week after he had that meltdown with the ump and I saw Avila was available so wa laaaa.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:27 pm
BAS- Yeah, they got pounded with rain up that way and they’re not built for it or to repair it quickly.
Sopheee
August 29th, 2011
3:27 pm
I left Lew a fb message yesterday after I saw images and video of Vermont yesterday. Hope he’s okay.
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
3:28 pm
But, I’m starting to seriously worry about Lew’s place. I hope he’s not under water…
Arent there a few folks on here with his phone number? Probably they ought to give that a shot.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
3:30 pm
Sign Bourn to a 5 year 43 million dollar deal(12: 7m, 2013-2016: 9m per year)
Sign Prado to a 3 year 20 million dollar deal with a 4th year option(12: 5.5m, 13: 6.5m, 14: 8m, 15: 8m or 1m buyout)
Sign McCann to a 5 year 58.5 million dollar deal(12: 8.5m, 2013-2016: 12.5m per year)
Done. World Series. Look. Out.
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
3:30 pm
Lost Molina for a week after he had that meltdown with the ump and I saw Avila was available so wa laaaa.
Nice. Kinda like when Ease dropped Uggla just a couple of weeks before he turned it on and I made hay!
abeeeewright
August 29th, 2011
3:32 pm
TennesseePaul, August 29th, 2011, 1:59 pm … “WAR is a “logarithm”? … one might say it takes it up an exponential notch.”
Naturally, it does.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
3:32 pm
But, I’m starting to seriously worry about Lew’s place. I hope he’s not under water…
Yeah, Vermont got blasted and I hope he’s okay too. Saw some bad pictures on Facebook as well.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
3:33 pm
I’ve just been hung up on extensions for Prado and McCann. I’ll be pushing it this winter. I’m sure Frank will hear me.
abeeeewright
August 29th, 2011
3:36 pm
ncscoots, August 29th, 2011, 3:03 pm … “…there are only three real blog subjects: payroll, lineups, and everything else.
I wonder how much payroll will be tied up in tomorrow’s line-up.
Ah, well, As long as Gonzalez isn’t hitting second, I’m OK with it.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:37 pm
Efrim- You think Prado would sign that deal? Seems light for the straw who stirs the drink per Hoss -no?
Bourn to be a Brave
August 29th, 2011
3:38 pm
Lock him up long term. At whatever cost. He’s no Juan Pierre. He’s unto himself something special. Bourn’s worth it.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
3:38 pm
I think it’s a fair deal, Anders. Especially based on this years stats and his health history. He hasn’t exactly been an iron man.
DS1
August 29th, 2011
3:39 pm
Braves go on a tear with Schafer hitting first and Gonzo batting second; driving the stat geeks to the brink of insanity….
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
3:39 pm
Sign McCann to a 5 year 58.5 million dollar deal(12: 8.5m, 2013-2016: 12.5m per year)
Too low for Mac. Need to go 15 M per from ‘13 on. That’ll be after a hometown discount.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:41 pm
He hasn’t exactly been an iron man (Efrim)
Maybe that’s what Chipper see’s in him? Compadre. Everyone relax- I’m just kidding.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
3:41 pm
Maybe Wren will go extension crazy like O’Dowd was with the Rockies last offseason. Contractual control for everyone.
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
3:42 pm
“Check out Jon Heyman’s picks for MVP & ROY…especially #8 on the NL MVP list…”
Can someone post this? I can’t access the sight…
raleighbravefan
August 29th, 2011
3:42 pm
Andruw was extra special…then he wasn’t. Just saying…
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
3:43 pm
Too low for Mac. Need to go 15 M per from ‘13 on. That’ll be after a hometown discount.
Yeesh. I mirrored the deal V-Mart signed – 4 years and 50 million. I hope they don’t give Mac 15 a year. Not for his age 29-32 year old seasons.
phil
August 29th, 2011
3:44 pm
I love Brian but the guy has never been in shape a single day in his professional life. At some point before too much longer, he will begin to break down, and with FF at first for hopefully the next 18 years, where would we put him? Exactly…..no where to put him.
I wish he would get the fat off and get in tip top shape and stay that way. I don’t think he ever will, or he already would have, but I guess I can keep hoping.
Brian, for the love of all things Atlanta, please put down the Krispy Kremes and get in shape, will ya? I mean EXCELLENT shape. For your good, our good and your bank account’s good.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:45 pm
Snotboogie – McCann certainly in the catbird seat. Especially with the youngster on the Giants future in question now with a serious leg injury. The Yanks would love to sign McCann and his lefthanded power bat. They’d trade that catcher in the minors for another chip and go with the sure thing. They gave Burnett $82 mil, I’m sure 6 years at $90 mil for BMac wouldn’t scare them.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
3:45 pm
in OPS Chipper is second to Arod. Brooksie is 64th.
Coach (2011 Fredi G. a go!)
August 29th, 2011
3:46 pm
It’s a given that the Braves will make every effort to sign Bourn to a long term contract. However, I’m not sure if Atlanta has the financial resources to keep him around beyond 2012. But I certainly hope Bourn takes into consideration the great young team he is already playing for before looking elsewhere.
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
3:48 pm
Sorry for asking again…can someone post the Heyman article on here? I can’t access the link…
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
3:48 pm
phil, where is the evidence or any reason to believe whatsoever that McCann has never been in shape? His body type automatically means he’s not in shape? Are you a doctor or something?
If McCann has never been in shape, I’ll take out-of-shape guys at every position.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
3:50 pm
Eh, I’ll believe it when I see it re: McCann leaving. They’ll work something out that’s reasonable. Hopefully it isn’t 4 years and 60 million…..
Coach (2011 Fredi G. a go!)
August 29th, 2011
3:50 pm
I saw the ESPN article on Chipper. But no, I would not have ranked him above Brooks Robinson. Simply because Brooks was a third baseman his whole career, and I put more stock in a players defensive ability than most Hall of Fame voters.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:50 pm
in OPS Chipper is second to Arod. Brooksie is 64th. (noliee)
Is this slang for operations? {:
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
3:51 pm
I don’t think Mac has any thought of playing anywhere but Atlanta, following Chipper’s lead on that. That takes the true economics out of the equation in that transaction. What remains to be seen in the extent of the hometown discount he gives the Braves, whether or not he doesi is out of the eqauation.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:52 pm
Efrim- Maybe, maybe not. Who’s his agent?
NickB
August 29th, 2011
3:53 pm
I know I’m gonna get killed for this, but I kinda wish we would trade Prado for prospects and spend that $$$ to go after a legit power hitting LF’er. Someone like Carlos Quentin. Prado’s real value is that he’s versatile. But that’s more of a value you want from your super utility guy not from a starting corner OF’er.
Here’s my offseason plan:
lose KK, Mclouth,Moylan,Linebrink, Lugo, save $17 mill
Trade Lowe and $7 mill for a bag of cheesy poofs to whomever we can save $7 mill
Trade Prado to an AL team that needs a 3b guy for some good positional prospects. save $5 mill
re-sign Gonzo for one year with an option for like $2mill
Sign Carlos Quentin for LF. 4 yr $39 mill
Sign Omar Infante as Super Utility man 2 yr $5.5 mill
Sign Ty Wigginton or similar as RH PH bat 1 yr $1.5 mill
sign some veteran RH pen arm for 1 yr $3 mill
Pay arbitration raises to eligible players $8-$10 mill
Payroll would be aprrox the same as this season give or take a couple mill.
Lineup
Bourn
Freeman
McCann
Uggla
Chipper
Quentin
Heyward
Gonzo
rotation
JJ
Hudson
Hanson
Beachy
Minor
Bench
Hinske
Infante
Constanza
Wigginton
Ross
Pen
Kimbrel
Venters
O’Flaherty
Vizcaino
Sherrill
Martinez
veteran RH guy
That team would score a good bit of runs as well as pitch it well. I have another alternative idea that involves trading JJ for a ton of prospects and using the $$ saved by moving he, Lowe and Prado to go after Kemp for LF…. but that’s another story! lol
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
3:56 pm
Anders – “Lickier than many.”
Some typos make you smile more than others.
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
3:56 pm
Efrim
V-Mart signed that deal when he was 32. Mac will be 3 years younger. Not sure you can give him the same money.
CB
August 29th, 2011
3:57 pm
I see SB and Soph are discussing Avila. I caught that smile,Soph.
DS1
August 29th, 2011
3:58 pm
A-Rod presents an interesting question when considering what position he should be rated at; SS or 3B.
As for the top 5, I ask myself a question: Who would you want on your team in his top 5 seasons? I gotta say it would be Schmidt hands down as the #1. From there, it’d be darn hard to choose between Mathews and Chipper. Brett comes 4th. I think I’d put Brooks above Boggs at that point. But how do you not put A-Rod at or near the top of that list if you are considering him a third sacker?
phil
August 29th, 2011
3:59 pm
My bad, Shaun. McCann is in excellent physical condition. The extra 50 pounds he carries around on his body is a mirage. I apologize for pointing out something that no one else could have possibly noticed.
And I apologize for wanting him to have a long a healthy career, as opposed to a shortened and ultimately ruined one as being presently experienced by another legendary fatty, one Andruw Jones.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
4:00 pm
NickB was winning hearts and minds, and then goes all roster-post on me. I’m shattered, I tell you, shattered.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
4:00 pm
Coach,
Chipper ranks 27th all-time in Runs Created while Brooks Robinson ranks 124th.
Chipper ranks 26th in Offensive WAR while Brooks Robinson ranks 238th.
Chipper ranks 41st in Times on Base. Brooks Robinson ranks 65th. Chipper has 1,730 fewer plate appearances, too.
Chipper ranks 42nd in Total Bases. Brooks Robinson ranks 57th. Again, Chipper has 1,730 fewer plate appearance.
This is Baseball Reference rankings, so I think it’s coming into this season and doesn’t include this season but I could be wrong. Still doesn’t change the argument much.
Robinson’s overall WAR ranks 89th to Chipper’s 51st rank.
If you think Brooks Robinson was better than Chipper you are overrating Brooks because he was a “old timer” or you are overrating defense or both.
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
4:00 pm
how do you not put A-Rod at or near the top of that list if you are considering him a third sacker?
PEDs.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
4:00 pm
I think they will just roll chipper’s money over to Mac. Something alons the lines of 5 years 70 million
DS1
August 29th, 2011
4:00 pm
NickB
I think you have to consider Prado your third baseman of the future, until someone better comes along.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
4:00 pm
IMO, Mac needs to stay a Brave. He needs to take over the Chipper role as the teams leader and veteran presence . He’s still so young, that I wouldn’t mind see him locked up through his age 35 years honestly! Is he going to stay at catcher? I think he will be there through age 33 at the least. (heck Piazza, who was a terrible catcher, stayed there full time til around 35 I think)
I’d offer him a long term deal that is in the fair market range but a few million a year less and then throw in a team option year that vests if he meets certain criteria that would kee phim a Brave through age 36 (if the option vests). Besides, if Freeman is still here we can cross that bridge when we come to it.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
4:01 pm
extra 50 pounds he carries around on his body is a mirage.
He’s just big-boned, phil.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
4:02 pm
Jimmy- You’re assuming it WAS a typo. {:
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
4:02 pm
phil, what “extra 50 pounds”? What do you mean “extra”?
Again, where is the evidence or reason to believe McCann has never been in shape? Would love to see it, if you’ve got it.
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
4:02 pm
I watched the Brewers – Cubs game yesterday. Kinda scouting the probable first round foes. One thing that was stated, and the game confirmed, is that you’ve got to get to Greinke early in the count. He’s deadly when up by two strikes.
The Brewers almost gave the game up in the ninth.
If we get them in the first round, I like our chances.
Sopheee
August 29th, 2011
4:03 pm
Trade Prado to an AL team that needs a 3b guy for some good positional prospects. save $5 mill
…
Just break my heart, why don’t you?
Sopheee
August 29th, 2011
4:04 pm
CB, doesn’t it make you feel better that you’re in good company though? Besides you’re kicking my behind.
I am ahead of the petrel right now though.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
4:04 pm
@ nscoots….. sorry man, I love to rosterbate
(and yeah, I’m really thinking that the Braves need to move Prado and use his arby $$$ to get a real power hitting LF bat) I know everyone loves Prado, but come 2012 , his arby is gonna outpay his value.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
4:06 pm
NickB, was Piazza really a terrible catcher or was he just bad at throwing out baserunners trying to steal? I don’t know that Piazza was a great catcher but I think his defensive deficiencies are often overstated.
DS1, I think Uggla might eventually move to third and Prado might move to second, stay in left or move on. I can’t see Uggla staying at second through the length of his contract nor can I see him going to left, but stranger things have happened.
flange1
August 29th, 2011
4:06 pm
NickB,
It would be hard to trade Prado. Not sure the Braves front office will agree to trade him. Why not consider making the trade for a LF, let Prado be a super utility guy until Chipper retires then let Prado play 3B?
I don’t think any of our minor league guys will be ready to fill in at 3B so soon.
Instead of spending the money on Infante, let Prado backup at 1B, 2B, 3B and LF, sign a defensive whiz to back up SS (or just use Brandon Hicks), then spend some coin on a RH foil to Hinske.
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
4:06 pm
Anders – “Jimmy- You’re assuming it WAS a typo.”
LOL. Smiling even more now!
Brava
August 29th, 2011
4:07 pm
…actually there is no evidence that suggest Prado is a better leftfielder than Heyward is a rightfielder.
Have to disagree. I know we’re not supposed to believe in what we see, Shaun, but my eyes tell me this is so.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
4:07 pm
Hey Jimmy- That’s a heck of a scouting report there at 4:02. Clear sailing to the WS now. What size ring do you wear?
CB
August 29th, 2011
4:08 pm
SB is definitely good company,I feel slightly less stupid. Petrel is somewhere plotting revenge,Soph.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
4:10 pm
but come 2012 , his arby is gonna outpay his value.
Well, his value will be depressed by playing a corner, IF or OF, that’s true. But if he gets back to his career norms of .300/.350, he’s still going to have a lot of value, even with non-corner power numbers.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
4:10 pm
Brava, apparently your eyes don’t see Heyward getting to batted balls that he should catch more often than Prado does.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
4:10 pm
Prado has a better arm MF04
like hell he does
flange1
August 29th, 2011
4:10 pm
BAS,
Just heard from Grinch, he spoke with Lew’s son and all is fine in Vermont! Lew is without power and phone but all are OK.
Brava
August 29th, 2011
4:12 pm
No, they see him stop and let a lot of balls drop that he could get to and shy away from balls bouncing off the wall in fear that they will hit him.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
4:12 pm
NickB, was Piazza really a terrible catcher or was he just bad at throwing out baserunners trying to steal? I don’t know that Piazza was a great catcher but I think his defensive deficiencies are often overstated. (Shaun)
Having watched Piazza for all those years I agree 100% with you on this. As a matter of fact he was better than Posada in my opinion but Posada skated here in NY because they were so loaded nobody ever really cared.
That said, two things happen when you have a catcher like Piazza. one, they wear out from catching every day and you can’t rely on their bat late in the season which the Mets needed to. Two, in the playoffs catching skills are magnified in the NL and even an average catcher can become an albatross. Just my opinion of course.
DS1
August 29th, 2011
4:13 pm
flange1
Thanks for the Lew update…..
Anders
August 29th, 2011
4:13 pm
Thanks Flange1. Glad to hear it.
CB
August 29th, 2011
4:13 pm
Great news on Lew,was very concerned for him.
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
4:14 pm
Anders – The Braves weren’t playing and I had to watch some baseball. See, that’s the kind of insightful information I bring to the blog.
Seriously, last week, there were some on here saying that “we don’t want the Brewers” with their home record and the streak they are now on. I’m not that worried about them. Of course they could beat us, but we won the season series and we are playing pretty good ball.
What does worry me is that it is a five game series.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:15 pm
V-Mart signed that deal when he was 32. Mac will be 3 years younger. Not sure you can give him the same money.
True, but part of that signing was with the acknowledgement that Victor would DH quite often. We don’t have that luxury with Mac, so I’d be hesitant to lock him up further out than his age 32 year old season.
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
4:16 pm
Thanks, flange.
Paint on, Lew.
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
4:16 pm
Very good news about Lew.
Moe Berg
August 29th, 2011
4:16 pm
JimBowdenESPNxm JIM BOWDEN
Jim Leyland just told us “I’m not an OBP guy, I’m a SLUG% guy, enough players will get on…I want the hitters that can drive them in” XM 89
NickB
August 29th, 2011
4:17 pm
@ flange 1 – well it’s because once you take Prado out of the starting lineup he loses trade value. It would be much better to use him as a chip to acquire some young players for the future and then use the $5+ mill he’s likely to recieie via arbitrartion to help fill the dang LF GAP WE’VE HAD FOREVER!!! lol I’m not really yelling, but honestly, name the last full time honest to goodness LF’er the Braves have had? Plus, Prado’s offensive production is good for an infielder, but not very good for a corner OF’er. He would be better off in a small AL ballpark playing 3b and hitting 2nd or 6th. The Braves would be better off by maximizing his value and using his potential salary for the specific thing they have lacked for a loooong time. I think it’s a win/ win
phil
August 29th, 2011
4:17 pm
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
4:02 pm
phil, what “extra 50 pounds”? What do you mean “extra”?
Again, where is the evidence or reason to believe McCann has never been in shape? Would love to see it, if you’ve got it.
***********************
Your condition, whatever it actually is, shows itself at moments such as this….
I don’t have access to McCann’s medical records.
I do, however, have eyes that function. They can identify a fatty fairly quickly.
Some fattys are in excellent shape for their sizes. Brian appears to be one of them, aside from the incredible sweating he does, as do most fattys and Derrick Lowe….Some fattys can run blazing fast 5ks and blow my thinner self out of the water. I’m always happy for them.
But it doesn’t mean it’s good for them to be so large.
At what height and weight are Brian listed?
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:17 pm
Just think of Prado as our third baseman from 2013-2015 and it makes you feel a whole lot better about the guy.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
4:17 pm
Brava, …and they miss him getting to batted balls the he should catch (and some that he shouldn’t) more often than Prado. That explains it. They just keep track of every bad play while brushing aside any normal or plus plays. Geez, how do those people not think Alex Gonzalez is a bad defensive player? He’s second on the team in errors, so he’s doing something wrong, correct? Never mind range and the positive things.
JFP
August 29th, 2011
4:18 pm
I would like to be the first person to vote for Shaun on his new position of Agent for Jason Heyward. No one could be as dedicated to Jason as Shaun. Jason should be signed to a 6 year 150 million dollar contract before the playoffs.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:18 pm
Jim Leyland just told us “I’m not an OBP guy, I’m a SLUG% guy, enough players will get on…I want the hitters that can drive them in” XM 89
I always thought it was the other way around. Enough guys will drive em in, but I want guys that can get on base.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
4:19 pm
i know the brewers have been playing well, but have you noticed the teams they have been beating up on? alot of wins against teams like pittsburgh, houston, and the cubs. thats a really weak division, and they are taking advantage.
Moe Berg
August 29th, 2011
4:19 pm
Efrim–I wondered about it as well.
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
4:19 pm
Moe,
But, is Leyland’s closer use ‘optimal’…
noliee
August 29th, 2011
4:20 pm
ignoring PEDS, I gotta go with Arod as the greatest 3rd baseman of all time
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
4:20 pm
I say sign David Ross long-term. He is our catcher of the future.
Heck, he’d be starting for any other of the 38 teams!
dcp
August 29th, 2011
4:20 pm
Sell tickets and this is not a worry. You can pay players what you need to to be successful. Nobody on this board can whine about losing players if they actually go to the games. If all anyone does is watch TV and then expect the owners to bankroll more than they have, it won’t happen. There is no reason that more fans are not going to the games. Oh the traffic, it’s a school night, they’re just playing the Astros, the game starts at 7 and i work till 5, etc. If Bourn’s your man, McCann’s your man, then get out there and buy tickets. I do like Anders post about the wonderful scouting report by Jimmy…wow – what knowledge we gained…don’t fall behind a good pitcher.
David O'Brien
August 29th, 2011
4:20 pm
Now you also have to consider the value of speed in todays game, Carl Crawford and Jose Reyes certainly have power, but what gets them the big bucks is their speed and defensive skills. — Tomas
If you think defensive skills get Crawford and Reyes their big bucks, sorry to tell you, but you’re wrong.
Skeezix
August 29th, 2011
4:20 pm
Way to go. One of you guys had to go and remind me that Glavine was once a Met. It is hard to even write that. I somehow had repressed the awful memory of Tommy going over to the other side. Now I am depressed.
Moe Berg
August 29th, 2011
4:21 pm
BAS–Very true. I bet he is too preoccupied with the saves stat.
southern hope
August 29th, 2011
4:21 pm
This no-baseball stretch stinks.
At least during the All-star break, we get things like the home run derby….this…this is frustrating! I can’t even root against the Phillys because they haven’t been doing anything either.
grrrr…
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:21 pm
I would like to be the first person to vote for Shaun on his new position of Agent for Jason Heyward. No one could be as dedicated to Jason as Shaun. Jason should be signed to a 6 year 150 million dollar contract before the playoffs.
Shaun comes off poorly here, but I’ll say it again, hope for Heyward to get out of this and reach his potential. Very bad if he doesn’t. Bad for this franchise like Hanson shoulder surgery would be bad. Heyward is extremely important and I personally enjoy rooting for this team more when young players that were drafted and develope3d contribute to the team winning. The Willie Harris, Jose Constanza, Jaret Wrights of the world don’t excite me as much. Sorry.
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
4:21 pm
dcp,
I appreciated Jimmy’s report infinitely more than yours. Hope this helps.
Brava
August 29th, 2011
4:22 pm
Shaun, I never said, I don’t see the good plays he makes, I was just pointing out why I think Prado is better at fielding his position. I don’t think Heyward is a bad defensive player, just average. He’s certainly not the gold glover some claim he is.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:22 pm
But, is Leyland’s closer use ‘optimal’…
I love that word now.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:24 pm
Isn’t Prado considered a good defender at third?
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
4:24 pm
Murph what will you do if the unquestionable happens and the Braves let BMac walk at the end of his deal? And he goes to the Mets?…Will you be a Mets fan or will you be a Braves fan who roots for BMac on Mets? What about the first time he comes to Atlanta wearing that Mets road uni?
Well, after I regained conscientiousness, I think I would be a Braves fan who roots for BMac and BMac only on the Mets…that is if I “come around” while he’s still with them…
Anders They still sting from dealing with Piazza as their big bat as a catcher.
Hey hey hey! Don’t be comparing BMac to that……guy!
But they have stupid money and treat it as such.
Excuse me? Nothing stupid about wanting BMac…
That said- I’d be proud to have McFann as a fellow fan. She’s one of my favorites on this blog.
OK, all is forgiven…You’re alright, man!
(Seriously, thanks…but I don’t think I could ever come over to your side! 
)
noliee
August 29th, 2011
4:25 pm
Jason has better range and a better arm than Prado. He still needs to work on his routes. He looked absolutely great in the minors.
I do not want someone his size diving after balls most of the time.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
4:25 pm
But, is Leyland’s closer use ‘optimal’…
I think Leyland still wears cleats at the ballpark, so my guess is that he give a person suggesting “optimal” use of a bullpen his most sympathetic look of pity. Or incredulity. Or scorn. Or maybe the one that says, “You see what kind of bull-bleep I have to put up with in this bleepin’ office?”.
One of those.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
4:25 pm
@ jimmy – I’m assuming yer being sarcastic
I don’t think Prado is the future of 3b for us though. Plus, if his production drops again next year he won’t have much value at all…. (yet he would still probably get a raise to around $7 mill in arbitration)
He’s had 3 straight years of declining OPS … that’s troubling. HOWEVER, don’t get me wrong. If they decide to keep him and he plays 3b until he’s a FA or wtvr, it’s not the end of the world. I’m just saying, If I were GM, I’d think about maximizing his value. As well as maximizing the potential production from LF.
JFP
August 29th, 2011
4:25 pm
Efrim, didn’t mean to mislead you about Heyward. I am a big fan also, just can’t compete with Shaun. I am a big fan of the Braves team and understand that each person plays an important role. You will never hear me bash a major league player. It takes so much to just get there whether it be raw talent or someone busting his butt everyday to work harder than the next.
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
4:26 pm
dcp – dog me if you want, but check out his averages according to the count.
And don’t take me so serious. Just a fan of the game. And I don’t claim to be anything more.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
4:26 pm
phil At what height and weight are Brian listed?
6′3″, 230…though in Spring Training this year, he was closer to 220.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
4:27 pm
He’s had 3 straight years of declining OPS … that’s troubling. …NickB
as has the majority of players in MLB. Numbers are down a lot across the board
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:27 pm
You will never hear me bash a major league player.
Good for you. Better person than I am.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
4:28 pm
I somehow had repressed the awful memory of Tommy going over to the other side. Now I am depressed.(Skeezix)
Trust me, you wouldn’t be alone to want to go back in time and make this never happen. You’d have an awful lot of northern company.
Brava
August 29th, 2011
4:28 pm
That may be, nolie, but he doesn’t use it to its potential. Prado may not throw as hard, but he’s far more accurate.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
4:30 pm
Wow, comparing Heyward to Prado? I know I’ve been away a while but when I left weren’t you guys comparing Heyward to Mickey Mantle or something??
steve
August 29th, 2011
4:30 pm
No doubt the Braves should resign Bourn as he is the best leadoff hitter we have had in a long time plus he is a good defensive player and a great base stealer, he fits in with our clubhouse, 5 years at 50 million is about right , with all the good young pitchers we have it is time for the Braves to put a team on the field that can score some runs and win some championships, we need Liberty to sell to an owner that can at least spend 100 million a year in order to keep and also add good players, hard to do this with an 80 million dollar payroll.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
4:31 pm
For the record I’ll put my money on Leylands baseball thought process – always.
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
4:31 pm
southern hope – You can root aginst the Phils tonight – ESPN 7:10.
NickB – I was being very sarcastic. Even I am not that stupid. I thought the “38 teams” would give it away. Someone on here used to talk about how Ross could be a starter for a wad of teams. I like Ross very much. He is the premier backup in the league.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
4:32 pm
JFP, I’m just for reason and logic and being sensible. Read this: http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=4843
I think it’s about the best and most reasonable thing I’ve read about the whole Heyward situation.
I’ll sum it up for you: Heyward is having a brutal season. But he’s not as bad as many think because those people are over-reliant on batting average and are rating him not on what he’s done but on comparing what he’s done to hype and expectations. If you wade through all of the hype and expectation and you go beyond batting average, to more telling metrics, he’s valuable even to a playoff team.
I would be just as belligerent if the Braves had decided to bench Uggla several games in a row quite frequently after a few months of poor play or if they were benching Prado for several games in a row. I honestly would. Has very little to do with the fact that it’s Heyward. It has everything to do with the Braves often not putting their best players on the field.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
4:32 pm
Wow, comparing Heyward to Prado?
That’s the undercard. Stick around for the main event: comparing Heyward to Jose Constanza, LOL.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
4:32 pm
Yeah but I’m not talking he went from .850 to .830 he’s gone from .822 to .809 to .722. now, his bABIP is down from his norm of around .330 (down to .275) so he may just be having an unlucky season. But for a guy who relies on hits to get on base (he’s never had much plate discipline) his big drop could be a sign that he’s too agressive..
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:32 pm
Anders, you have no idea the pain that Heyward’s struggles have caused. Not so much his actual struggles. Just a lot of unnecessary back and forth about the topic on this blog.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
4:34 pm
Brava, don’t know who claimed he was a Gold Glover.
But all the evidence points to him being a better defender than Prado. I know. Forget the evidence. We only go on perception around here.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:34 pm
No way on Leyland. That comment he made is just plain wrong in my opinion. Or at least, not ‘optimal’….
DAP
August 29th, 2011
4:35 pm
efrim I always thought it was the other way around. Enough guys will drive em in, but I want guys that can get on base.
didnt work well enough for the 2010 braves. i mean, it did because we won 91 games, but a little slugging would have gone a long way. (like this year)
flange1
August 29th, 2011
4:35 pm
It was a good line Jimmy.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:35 pm
Mike Stanton has a .543 slugging percentage. Star with a capital “S”.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
4:35 pm
Leyland is highly overrated. losing career record
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
4:36 pm
you have no idea the pain that Heyward’s struggles have caused. Not so much his actual struggles. Just a lot of unnecessary back and forth about the topic on this blog.
So much so that political blogs have banned the discussion of Jason Heyward on them.
Brava
August 29th, 2011
4:37 pm
Well, Shaun, all I can say is I watch every game and what I, and those around me, see often doesn’t jive with your “evidence”.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
4:37 pm
That comment he made is just plain wrong in my opinion. Or at least, not ‘optimal’….
“sub-optimal”, Efrim. You got your “optimal” and your “sub-optimal”.
Skeezix
August 29th, 2011
4:37 pm
The issue with Brian is his arm. It never was great and is getting worse. So where does FG put him? He is a great stick, so he’s a keeper, but long term FG needs to find a new position for him……… and let Ross, who has a great arm (and is overall better defensively), be the #1 catcher. It is a real dilemma for the Braves. I wonder if Freeman can play third?
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
4:38 pm
where is the evidence or reason to believe McCann has never been in shape?
I’ve got some baby photo’s of him, will that be admissible as “proof”?
Anders
August 29th, 2011
4:38 pm
Efrim- I hear ya but you know what? Every June I look at Leylands team and they’re on life support. By August they’re almost always in it. That doesn’t happen by accident. I didn’t appreciate him enough in his earlier years but now, I’d take him over King Torre every time.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
4:38 pm
Anders, you don’t have to leave long for opinions to change about a player. It changes in between at bats
1st AB-struck out…send him to the minors, etc
2 AB-homerun-sign him to a 10 year contract the guy is a future hall of famer
With Heyward I have heard conversations about hall of fame and sending him to AAA
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
4:38 pm
“The Willie Harris, Jose Constanza, Jaret Wrights of the world don’t excite me as much.”
You know what I like about these guys? I like how they come up, do well for the team, and then get siphoned off by some other team and fall apart.
For instance, Jaret Wright came to the Braves after a career of 87 ERA+. He succeeds with the Braves (134 ERA+) and is immediately pulled away with a big contract from the Yankees and subsequently stinks it up again (88 ERA+).
I really enjoy watching that. And I don’t apologize for it.
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
4:39 pm
NickB,
Good stuff all day today, man.
Re: your 4:32, I think Prado trying to hit for more power. I don’t think he’s more aggressive in approach, or with his pitch selection, but he’s taking a big, pull hack a lot more often than he did as he won the job. I’d like to see him go back to the doubles machine he was. Remember all those balls he used to flip over the 1B? He’d guess away, and get the barrel on a pitch six inches off the plate, and end up on second. Haven’t seen that lately…
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:39 pm
didnt work well enough for the 2010 braves. i mean, it did because we won 91 games, but a little slugging would have gone a long way. (like this year)\
Scored 4.55 runs per game last year. Scoring 4.13 runs per game this year……We’re 12th in the league in on base percentage this year. We hit .258/.339/.401 last year. Hitting .246/.311/.394 this year.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
4:40 pm
Anders, those who compare young players like Heyward to Mantle are misguided. Those who don’t think the comparisons of Heyward at the plate this season to Prado at the plate this season are just as misguided. The former group of misguided people just don’t understand the odds of any player playing like Mickey Mantle are pretty long. The latter group just overrates batting average’s usefulness and doesn’t understand the difference between just looking at performance and judging a player on whether his performance matches his hype and expectations. It’s pretty obvious with just a basic knowledge of baseball that Heyward and Prado have been virtually equal at the plate this season.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
4:40 pm
So much so that political blogs have banned the discussion of Jason Heyward on them.
Even penguin blogs have banned it. It’s a hard world.
(”Happy Feet”, the emperor penguin who showed up in New Zealand, a mere 1800 miles from home, is now well enough to be transported back to Antarctica. But he first had to promise not to discuss Jason Heyward.)
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
4:41 pm
My eyes tell me Heyward is an above average left fielder but not great. I bet the stats tell a similar story
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
4:41 pm
right fielder…my eyes aren’t so good
noliee
August 29th, 2011
4:41 pm
he’s gone from .822 to .809 to .722. now, his bABIP is down from his norm of around .330 (down to .275) so he may just be having an unlucky season…NickB
the 822 to 809 is nothing, to all intent and purposes statistically the same. so it’s just really this year and even there the league average is down quite a bit as shown be his numbers still being league average @ 100 OPS+.
sure if it continues next season it might get worrisome, but right now it is nothing but a poor year which every player in baseball has several times in their careers
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:42 pm
“sub-optimal”, Efrim. You got your “optimal” and your “sub-optimal”.
Ah, I see now.
Frankie Wren
August 29th, 2011
4:42 pm
To heck with Georgia and J Hey(this year), Berkman passed waivers. How bout putting the Puma in right field and get to the Series.
flange1
August 29th, 2011
4:43 pm
BAS<
I was thinking the same thing as your 4:39.
Prado seems too pull happy and trying to jerk the ball out.
Not going with the pitch like he did a couple years back.
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
4:43 pm
LOL, scoots. Nice.
JRW
August 29th, 2011
4:43 pm
How did Mickey Mantle ever get in the same sentence with Jason Heyward. That’s just wrong.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:43 pm
I’m not worried one bit about Prado’s down year. I think he’s been unlucky. Good player, and like I’ve said 600 times – lock. him. up. Contractual control for him.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
4:43 pm
Shaun- I mentioned Mantle as a comedic point of reference not as a statement of fact. Sorry if I misguided on you on this. {:
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
4:44 pm
Brava, all I can say is that people aren’t good at observing. People observed that the earth was flat once. But you go ahead and rely on your superb observation skills alone.
TennesseePaul, unless someone is a McCann stalker and knows exactly what he’s doing or not doing to stay in shape, I’m not sure there is any reason to believe he’s never been in shape, as phil asserted. I could see if maybe his performance was awful or something, maybe having some reason to doubt he’s ever been in shape.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
4:44 pm
efrim, point taken. i loved all the baserunners last year, by the way. i miss that.
JFP
August 29th, 2011
4:44 pm
Shaun, I am a huge fan of Heyward. He has a tremendous amount of potential, both mental and physical. He is going to be a great player, but even great players struggle. The Braves have handled his situation quite well. They gave him all of the opportunity to come out of it on his own, and once they realized that it could affect the playoff picture, they made adjustments. And most guys would not have held up as well as he has. But I think he sees the big picture and it’s just another good sign of his maturity.
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
4:44 pm
Those who don’t think the comparisons of Heyward … to Prado … this season are just as misguided.
Misguided because they don’t think.
Hillbilly
August 29th, 2011
4:44 pm
That’s not to be confused with an Optimal Sub, now. Easily confusable.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
4:45 pm
This weekend in sports was awful. Watched a miserable braves game on friday and all that was left was preseason football and little league baseball. I’m not used to a break like this
Brava
August 29th, 2011
4:46 pm
My eyes tell me Heyward is an above average left fielder but not great.
Really? I’ve never seen him play LF.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:46 pm
I really enjoy watching that. And I don’t apologize for it.
This made me laugh.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
4:46 pm
But for the record – when the Braves fans and media annointed him as “J Hey” well, the inference there is kind of hard to miss. so….
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:46 pm
efrim, point taken. i loved all the baserunners last year, by the way. i miss that.
Bases were loaded and so was I.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
4:47 pm
Bottom of another fifth.
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
4:47 pm
McCann is our Piazza. WE have to have him in there because of his stick. He isn’t there for his defense. In fact, this year I’ve noticed he doesn’t even slide his body over to block a pitch in the dirt – just his glove. Sometimes he gets it, sometimes not.
But we need his bat very badly. Third base (in the future) is out of the question. And no way Freeman is uprooted. I suppose he remains behind the dish until….. well, you know.
It’s hard to say that about Brian, but I think it is the truth.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
4:48 pm
a New Yawk fan talking about hype on other teams.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:49 pm
Anders, I really like Lucas Duda. Even if he is just a platoon player next year. I like him. They need pitching, although they finally have put together a minor league system with some potential – Harvey, Wheeler, Famillia, Mejia – once he gets back. 2013, man – that’s when it starts to get fun for the fans again. Just gotta keep Reyes. He is the key. Alderson is the man. Love that guy.
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
4:49 pm
Bash away guys. Catch you later.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
4:49 pm
Brava
If there’s one thing that life has taught us, it’s that we have a selective memory when it comes to perception of a players ability. We tend to forget the routine (or great ) plays that don’t involve diving or a great throw to the plate . Most of what Andruw (according to the fancy defensive stats) the 2nd greatest defender of ALL TIME (behind brooks Robinson) is that he made catches at a trot that most other players would’ve had to dive for or not get to at all. Heyward is an above average RF’er. He gets to many balls that other OF’ers would’ve caught on a hop. He’s also smart enough not to dive at those inbetweeners at the risk of it getting by him and allowing a “potential” spectacular play turn into a double or a triple. He’s young, sometimes he takes bad routes, but his great speed and athletic ability usually allow him to make the play anyway. Prado, is doing an average job at a traditionally easier position to play, against a pool of other players who are usually bad fielders. ( LF is usually home to sloths who are blocked from playing first). I watch all the games too and I see a good fielder out there in RF.
JFP
August 29th, 2011
4:49 pm
Bases were loaded and so was I.
That was a good one.
Brava
August 29th, 2011
4:50 pm
Brava, all I can say is that people aren’t good at observing. People observed that the earth was flat once. But you go ahead and rely on your superb observation skills alone.
Well, Shaun, I think I have above average observation skills, most career soldiers do. But who knows, maybe what I see isn’t real. Guess I’ll just keep watching and hallucinating, because I get great pleasure from it.
RC
August 29th, 2011
4:51 pm
Bottom of another fifth. – ncscoots
Reminds me of my favorite baseball related commercial that played on the Rockies radio affliates this season:
“It’s the bottom of the fifth, and if you’re at the bottom of your fifth, come on down to Applejack Liqour….”
Anders
August 29th, 2011
4:51 pm
He has a tremendous amount of potential, both mental and physical.(JFP)
Mental? How exactly have you assessed this? He knows to make a left when he reaches the next base? He reports to the correct position on the field consistently? He hasn’t batted out of order?
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
4:51 pm
timthebrave, actually the stats have Heyward saving the second-most runs on the team behind Alex Gonzalez. But you can’t pay attention to stats around here unless they confirm your biases or unless they were on the back of baseball cards when you were little.
You shouldn’t look at what the stats are measuring. You should only look at the leader boards of particular stats and if the players are there that you think should be there, that’s how you determine if the stat is valid.
For instance, you don’t start with the fact that on-base percentage measure how many times a player gets on base and avoids outs. You look at the on-base percentage leader board. If a player is up there that you don’t think should be, you disregard that stat. That’s the way it works around here.
RC
August 29th, 2011
4:51 pm
Bases were loaded and so was I.
That was a good one.
Once remember Skip saying, “The bases are loaded, and I bet Dusty (Baker) wishes he was too!”
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:51 pm
Keep seeing ‘Moneyball’ banners on ESPN.com. Can’t believe Jonah Hill is playing the part of Paul Depodesta, or at least the guy that is playing what role Depo had.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
4:53 pm
My problems with Heyward have nothing to do with his fielding or attitude. He just isn’t hitting for sh**
Brava
August 29th, 2011
4:53 pm
Sorry, NickB, but I watch a lot of RF from other teams, as well as the Braves, and Heyward looks to be about average to me.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:54 pm
I can’t believe there is 29 regular season games left and only a weeks worth of minor league baseball left. This is crazy. Soon, the playoffs, hotstove season, etc. Moves pretty fast.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
4:55 pm
Shaun , as far as defense here is what my eyes tell me
1. Gonzalez
2. Freeman
3. Bourn
4. Heyward
Hillbilly
August 29th, 2011
4:55 pm
There’s a fine line between “Wish You Were Here” and “Wish You Were Her.”
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
4:55 pm
unless someone is a McCann stalker and knows exactly what he’s doing or not doing to stay in shape…
This is a fallacy. You’ve set an unattainable level of burden of proof rendering your opinion just as irrelevant as a fan who asserts McCann is not “in shape.”
I’m not sure there is any reason to believe he’s never been in shape…I could see if maybe his performance was awful or something…
This too is fallacious as it would assume that players who produce are inherently “in shape.” There are many players in baseball history who produces tremendous results while still falling outside the bounds of the term “in shape.”
Skeezix
August 29th, 2011
4:55 pm
No game again tonight. Last game, shutout and embarrassed by the Mets. Tommy once was a Met. Tommy ‘Gun’ Hanson’s torn his rotator cuff. Brian’s arm is getting weaker. Jason still struggling. Checking out now guys, am descending into despair……. going to visit with Jack Daniels.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
4:56 pm
My problems with Heyward have nothing to do with his fielding or attitude. He just isn’t hitting for sh**
tim goes nutshell, LOL. That nimrod Perry throws our line-drive percentage, infield-fly percentage, all to a bleepin decimal point, to detail Heyward’s troubles. timthebrave nails it in six words: “He just isn’t hitting for sh**”.
Props to tim!
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
4:57 pm
Mental? How exactly have you assessed this?
Really Anders? Why, he made it to the majors, of course.
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
4:57 pm
There are many players in baseball history who produces tremendous results while still falling outside the bounds of the term “in shape.”
(Aunt) Babe Ruth perhaps?
Killing me Smalls.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
4:57 pm
He just isn’t hitting for sh** tim
even that is kinda misleading. most folks are basing that on batting average alone. his OPS is better though still disappointing
Anders
August 29th, 2011
4:58 pm
Efrim- I’d offer Reyes 5 years at $85 mil. You know he’ll be hurt for at least 1 years worth of that. That puts him at $21 mil per for time played. If he plays for 4 1/2 of those years he gets a 5th year at $25 mil. Take it or leave it. I mean it. I don’t believe he can keep his legs healthy enough. It’s not the Mets fault the Nats gave stupid money to Werth and the Red Sox paid Crawford what they did. I wouldn’t even attempt to match those deals. Who would for Reyes? The Phillies? Possible but I’m not so sure. The Giants? Maybe.
Problem is that Reyes tends to pout and I think he will if the Mets start by lowballing him and he’ll walk because of it. That’s his nature. So be it.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
4:58 pm
Although I have seen Heyward misplay more balls than Prado I think he gets to a lot more balls that Prado wouldn’t have a chance at getting
Claudio
August 29th, 2011
4:59 pm
The Braves need to extend Bourn, he makes the offense go. However, I wouldn’t go more than 4 years, even if it takes a higher annual salary (i.e. I would do a 4/36 deal, but not a 5/40 one). His game relies on his legs, and if they start to betray him….5 years is a very long period of time, and a 28 yo speedster is a lot different than a 33 yo former speedster
NickB
August 29th, 2011
4:59 pm
As far as Mac is concerned, I’m of the opinion that his throwing out base runners lies mostly at the foot of his pitching staff. Hanson is terrible at holding runners, JJ isn’t much better. Hudson and Lowe are because they want those grounders to turn into double plays (yet Hudson has been caught by Ross most of the year). I think it’s a little unfair to just lay it all at Mac’s feet… (last year he threw out 30% of base stealers. This year it’s down to 20%)
Whomever keeps saying Ross should be our number one catcher hasn’t looked at his numbers . He gets overexposed as a starter and his numbers really dwindle. He’s best used in 200 PA’s a year getting his one start a week.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
4:59 pm
Prince Fielder is a really good player but the only shape he is in is round
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
5:00 pm
Brava, nobody has great observation skills. Our eyes and our brains fool us more often than we like to admit.
RC
August 29th, 2011
5:00 pm
Shaun , as far as defense here is what my eyes tell me
1. Gonzalez
2. Freeman
3. Bourn
4. Heyward – timthebrave
I would agree with these rankings. One of the annoying things about UZR and other defensive metrics is that none of them do a very good job of:
A) Accounting for the different shapes of outfields. Boston LFers always end up with a terrible range factor, because there isn’t that much ground to make plays on there, while SD outfielders always have awesome zone rankings.
B) Accounting for 1b defense. Since the metric simply takes into account balls that are fielded by the 1b, there is no measure of how many potential errors he is able to save on bad throws from the other infielders. This is one of the reasons that Freeman is rated as one of the worst defenders in the majors by most metrics. They simply aren’t calibrated to accurately measure 1b defense.
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
5:01 pm
Problem is that Reyes tends to pout and I think he will if the Mets start by lowballing him and he’ll walk because of it. That’s his nature. So be it.
He’s an aging veteran. The Giants will sign him to a crippling contract. For Sabean, those deals are a hoot.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
5:01 pm
Jimmy In fact, this year I’ve noticed he doesn’t even slide his body over to block a pitch in the dirt – just his glove.
Not to be a smart[butt], but you must not watch many games, then.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
5:02 pm
TennesseePaul, agreed. People who don’t think the Heyward-Prado offensive comparisons so far this season are valid simply don’t think.
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
5:02 pm
What are the chances Freddie Freeman wins a gold glove this year?
Surely it isn’t Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, or that fat guy for the Brewers…Princess something…
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:02 pm
good points RC, especially the 1st base one
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
5:03 pm
NickB He gets overexposed as a starter and his numbers really dwindle.
Yeah, didn’t these folks pay attention while BMac was on the DL? GYAH, don’t tell me all that suffering was for naught!!…
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
5:03 pm
‘Nobody has great observation skills’
Bull.
And, the defensive stats routinely used here rely on precisely those skills.
Brava
August 29th, 2011
5:04 pm
Yeah, OK, Shaun, whatever you say.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:04 pm
why wouldn’t it be Pujols?
RC
August 29th, 2011
5:04 pm
Brava, nobody has great observation skills. Our eyes and our brains fool us more often than we like to admit.
I find this statement to simply be inaccurate. It’s certainly possible that if someone depends ENTIRELY on their eyes to judge a player they will make mistakes, but that’s why it’s important to compare visual scouting with numbers. By the same token, simply trusting the numbers is a losing strategy as well, without questioning the methods that go into developing the numbers. I keep coming back to Freeman, but he’s a great example of how this can be the case. The numbers say he’s awful at 1b, my eyes say he’s fantastic. After reviewing the different inputs that go into each evaluation, I’ve determined that the numbers simply don’t utilize as much information as is available to the human eye, taking into account fielding throws from other players.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
5:04 pm
I’m actually interested to see what happens to Jose Reyes. But I don’t what that showboating, oft injured malcontent on the Braves.
So who gets him? The Yankees are out, so that leaves the Cards, Red Sox maybe…. ? i dunno, IMO, it looks like most of the really heavy hitting payroll teams have a SS already. (Jeter, Ramirez,Starlin Castro, Andrus). I think that the Mets may lowball him, and it’s the best off he gets.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:04 pm
What are the chances Freddie Freeman wins a gold glove this year? (MFin04)
They certainly increased the day Ike Davis collided with David Wright. That Ike can pick it.
Brava
August 29th, 2011
5:06 pm
Well put, RC.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
5:06 pm
How is there any possible way to say Freeman has been awful at 1B?? That doesn’t even make sense…what “numbers”…?
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
5:07 pm
Ike Davis collided with Not wRight? How’d that happen? Was Davis playing a different position…?
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
5:07 pm
Ike Davis? Let me go out on a limb and say Ike Davis won’t win a gold glove at any position ever.
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
5:08 pm
Range, McFann.
When people say a guy’s defense is poor, it’s either errors or range. He is great around the bag, and has a great arm, but he doesn’t get to as many balls as an elite defensive first baseman.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:09 pm
the defensive stats routinely used here rely on precisely those skills…BAS
nah. the defensive metrics are based on study with well defined parameters. observation is a one time look at most plays.
Eye-witness reports are notoriously unreliable.
and too, what we see is influenced greatly by what we want or expect to see. perceptual bias
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
5:09 pm
Soon, the playoffs, hotstove season, etc. Moves pretty fast.
Until the offseason, when time regresses to the mean. Tick. Forever. Tock.
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
5:09 pm
People who don’t think the Heyward-Prado offensive comparisons so far this season are valid
Ahhhh “are valid.” Initially it was simply limited to, in summary, “people who don’t think the comparisons of Heyward and Prado are misguided”
Now “validity” comes into play suggesting that there is no room for descent or disagreement of conclusions based on the comparisons. I disagree with such a notion. People can wisely review the facts of the entire situation and come to a different coherent and logical opinion. Only a truly close-minded individual would fail to see this.
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
5:09 pm
“I’ve determined that the numbers simply don’t utilize as much information as is available to the human eye, taking into account fielding throws from other players.”
Freeman never seems to drop anything not to mention the kid can stretch.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
5:10 pm
RC, right. That’s my point. People often disregard stats because of what they see. But you need to rely on both. And it goes hand-in-hand with disregarding a stat because it doesn’t get you the results you like. Judge the stats on what it’s measuring and it’s usefulness in measuring what you want it to measure, not whether or not a stat tells you that a particular player is good or bad.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
5:10 pm
Bay Area Steve—
Oh! I getcha, thanks! Still, I like his D a lot…but what do I know about D, right…?
NickB
August 29th, 2011
5:10 pm
@ RC I agree, you must use a combo of observation and numbers to judge defense.
HOWEVER, first base is a bad place to use as an example. The defensive numbers like UZR and RF for 1b are lacking due that they are all about range. The problem with this is that it does’t really take into account runs saved by digging balls and preventing errors by other players. This is something Freeman excels at. Plus, one thing all the defensive metric maestros admit, is that the major defensive stats tend to not work very well for catchers and 1b. The number of plays they make every game is so much greater than the other positions it skews things (plus the nature of receiving the ball so much rather than catching and throwing it are inherently different) So though these range related stats aren’t accurate for say FF. They do show that as a big guy, he doesn’t have much range at 1b. But some of the runs prevented stats say that he’s an elite fielder there…. So, it’s a matter of which one you trust. Hence the eyeball test.
But when it comes to the OF, UZR and +/- work pretty well and they both say Heyward is a top ten RF’er
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:11 pm
I’m actually interested to see what happens to Jose Reyes. But I don’t what that showboating, oft injured malcontent on the Braves. (NickB)
Hey Nick, you should have been here back in the days when “The Choker” Billy Wagner was a Met. Folks on here hated him even more. Then poof! Bobby and Wren pay him a visit up at his Virginia farm with hat in hand, they give him a tomahawk for his chest and presto he’s a great guy, perfect clubhouse teammate who Braves fans always had the utmost respect for. Good old “Wags”. The lesson here? Go ahead and crap all over the enemy. Nobody remembers.
Well almost nobody. {:
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:11 pm
Mets will re-sign Reyes. In the competitive stew that is the back page they can hardly afford not to
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
5:11 pm
CB,
You give me way too much credit. I think we could both use some guidance from Soph.
BTW – where is Ease? Havent seen him around much these days. Usually it doesnt take much to flush him out.
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
5:12 pm
Go ahead and crap all over the enemy. Nobody remembers.
Except for professional pot-stirrers.
RC
August 29th, 2011
5:13 pm
Range, McFann.
When people say a guy’s defense is poor, it’s either errors or range. He is great around the bag, and has a great arm, but he doesn’t get to as many balls as an elite defensive first baseman.
But doesn’t positioning come into play with range as well? It seems that a really good advance scout or bench coach could have just as much impact on range factor as the player himself. If one team has a great coach that tells a player to move 2 steps to the left, while another team’s coach doesn’t do this in the exact same situation, why should the first player receive credit for making a play due to good positioning by his coach?
Range factor is great, and it can tell you a lot about a player and a team. But it’s really annoying when people try to use it as a definitive measure of a player’s defensive ability, since there are so many variables that are not considered by the numbers.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:14 pm
Ike Davis? Let me go out on a limb and say Ike Davis won’t win a gold glove at any position ever (MFin04)
Curious line in the sand. But ok.
RC
August 29th, 2011
5:15 pm
One more example of why range factor is not a great measure:
A few years ago it was noticed that A-Rod had a poor range factor on balls hit to his right (between him and the foul line). After doing some research, a few writers developed the reasonable hypothesis that he wasn’t reaching as many balls to the right because he was cheating toward SS, trying to help cover up for Derek Jeter’s poor range at SS. So while he helped the team as a whole, his individual numbers showed a “decline” in defense.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
5:15 pm
TennesseePaul, it’s pretty difficult to come to the conclusion that Prado has been a lot better at the plate than Heyward this season, if you are aware of everything beyond batting average.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:16 pm
exactly RC you have nailed the biggest problem with defensive metrics. They are too range-centric. It might be the most important aspect but it is not the only aspect especially at catcher and 1st
CB
August 29th, 2011
5:17 pm
Soph would definitely be wise counsel,SB. Ease is hanging around somewhere,he gets kind of quiet when he is thinking hard.
Brava
August 29th, 2011
5:18 pm
But it’s really annoying when people try to use it as a definitive measure of a player’s defensive ability, since there are so many variables that are not considered by the numbers.
Amen.
RC
August 29th, 2011
5:18 pm
Anders,
Did people on the blog really rip Billy Wagner that much? I don’t remember that, but then again it could just be that it was coming from some of the posters who I tended to ignore on a regular basis, precisely for comments like that.
I do remember a lot of people ripping Beltran when the big riff happened between him and Wagner in the Mets clubhouse over staying around to speak to the media.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:18 pm
After doing some research, a few writers developed the reasonable hypothesis that he wasn’t reaching as many balls to the right because he was cheating toward SS, trying to help cover up for Derek Jeter’s poor range at SS. So while he helped the team as a whole, his individual numbers showed a “decline” in defense….RC
but wouldn’t that have increased his range factor to his left and evened out? I’m not sold on that hypothesis
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:19 pm
Mets will re-sign Reyes. In the competitive stew that is the back page they can hardly afford not to
(noliee)
Before this second leg injury you might be right. But now having missed all these games again- the luster of his season is gone. He’s great when he plays. They will not go to extraordinary means to keep him. They can not afford that risk and Met fans on the whole honestly don’t want them too. Most have bought into Aldersons building from within and concentration on pitching. If Reyes wants to be part of it at a fair and reasonable deal ok. If not, best of luck to you (well not really).
NickB
August 29th, 2011
5:19 pm
@ RC
Oh i totally agree, defensive metrics are hardly perfect. But one thing that must be considered is that they are the same for everybody. IF you have 10 people and the numbers show one sticks out (either good or bad) it generally means they are significantly better or worse than their peers. If they are all fairly close then you know that it doesn’t measure enough. Defensive metrics are kinda the second one. A few people really stick out. But most everyone is fairly close together.
Think, one day in the future the ball will be tracked and the field will be broken down into a computer scanned grid that directly tracks in real time. Both before the play and after, resulting in a near perfect defensive stat. When that happens, most of you will be praying for Shaun and his talk of UZR ! ;-p
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:21 pm
RC- Every post and I mean every post about Wagner had the word choker in it. Led by the great Lew himself. Most on here hated wagner for his mouth etc.. It was chronic.
Coach (2011 Fredi G. a go!)
August 29th, 2011
5:23 pm
Brooks Robinson defensive WAR stats:
Career 27.3 which is 1st all time. Of course….all the stat heads like Shaun will never figure in the five to six hundred runs Robinson saved over the course of his 16 gold glove, 23 year Hall of Fame career
Yea, that’s five to six hundred more RBI saved than any other third baseman…..ever.
p.s. I’ll never be accused of underrating a players defensive metrics.
ga gator
August 29th, 2011
5:23 pm
Yes sign him AND Constanza; their speed on the bases is what has transformed this lineup. Speed disrups both pitching and defense.
RC
August 29th, 2011
5:25 pm
TennesseePaul, it’s pretty difficult to come to the conclusion that Prado has been a lot better at the plate than Heyward this season, if you are aware of everything beyond batting average. – Shaun
I will agree with you that they have been very similar statistically up to this point in the season. However, when I watch them play, it does seem that the way Prado goes about his at-bats in recent weeks is a much better approach than Heyward has been doing over the same short-time period. Prado doesn’t appear to be fooled as often, and is able to make adjustments during an at-bat. Heyward does not possess that ability at the present time.
It is worth mentioning that there was a point in the season during which Prado looked lost as well, and it’s only been very recently that he seems to have a better idea of what he’s doing at the plate. Heyward has shown flashes of regaining that confidence he needs, but without consistent playing time there is no way he’s going to fully develop it.
Basically, from a pure performance standpoint, I get why Fredi has been playing Constanza over Heyward. From a standpoint of using the last couple of months of the season to get Heyward “right” in order to make the team as strong as possible heading into October, I think Fredi is mismanaging this situation terribly. And with an 8.5 game lead in the wildcard, getting Heyward right is much more important than the slight potential upgrade the team gets from Constanza right now.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:25 pm
Except for professional pot-stirrers.(snotboogie)
Professional? Where do I go to pick up my paycheck? {:
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:27 pm
hink, one day in the future the ball will be tracked and the field will be broken down into a computer scanned grid that directly tracks in real time. NickB
that is pretty much happening already in many parks. every play is recorded. without human interface though, it will likely ignore things like positioning and make it all too mechanical.
RC
August 29th, 2011
5:29 pm
NickB,
I’ll be happy when tracking the game has gotten to that granular level…I find it very interesting. I just think that certain “advanced” stats are thrown around without acknowleding their faults on a regular basis, although most on here seem to agree with my points on that.
Anders,
I count myself among those that have never mentioned “Wagner” and “choker” together in the same sentence. I’ve been a fan of his since I saw him sit down Andruw, Klesko, and Javy in order on what appeared to be 9 pitches one game.
I am not suprised that Lew did though
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:30 pm
I never used the words Wagner and choker in the same sentence. maybe they were talking about his gold neck chain
skep
August 29th, 2011
5:30 pm
Forget throwing money at guys turning 30 and on the downside. Spend the resources on developing the young talent. Think how much of the current payroll being paid to Kawakamee, McClouth, Lowe, Linebrink etc. for limited to no production. The young guns are the best players on this team. You pay a McCann, but few players are worth the long term contracts and Bourn is not one of them.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:30 pm
After doing some research, a few writers developed the reasonable hypothesis that he wasn’t reaching as many balls to the right because he was cheating toward SS, trying to help cover up for Derek Jeter’s poor range at SS. So while he helped the team as a whole, his individual numbers showed a “decline” in defense….RC
So any hole that Jeter didn’t cover A-Rod took? I knew he took Jete’s throw aways.
RC
August 29th, 2011
5:31 pm
Alright everyone, I’m out for the night. Been a fun day on the blog, but I’m sure we’ll all be happy when there are actual games to discuss tomorrow.
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
5:32 pm
Payne, the conclusions one draws from such a comparison can vary. The term “a lot” is subjective and could remain valid if previously defined prior to use. And finally, the assumption that all those who disagree are only aware of batting average is disingenuous at best.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:32 pm
Anders,
I count myself among those that have never mentioned “Wagner” and “choker” together in the same sentence. I’ve been a fan of his since I saw him sit down Andruw, Klesko, and Javy in order on what appeared to be 9 pitches one game. (RC)
Oh yeah, I meant to write everyone except RC (Rolling eyes).
Coach (2011 Fredi G. a go!)
August 29th, 2011
5:32 pm
RC, I wouldn’t concern myself over Heyward’s lack of playing time.
The reason being…..Constanza has hit .185 in his last ten games. Some of us knew the speedster’s hot streak wouldn’t last.
monty
August 29th, 2011
5:34 pm
NickB- ‘Oh and Constanza is regressing big time. IMO a good scouting report is out on him and he is going to have to work the count more and not swing so much or he’s in trouble.
last 10 games his avg is .185, obp .245 and slugging is .185… epically bad”
This is where going to baseball reference and looking at the past 14 days can skew reality. Georgie’s last 7 AB’s he’s 0-7, previous to that he is 8-23. A .348 avg. Anyone, Chipper or whoever can have an ofer for a couple or 3 games. Doesn’t mean they are regressing and that teams have figured them out. LOL!
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
5:35 pm
Coach, Chipper was so much better offensively that Robinson had to do a lot more than he did defensively to catch up in overall value.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:36 pm
about 9000 differences between Chipper and ’stanza as regards what to expect in the future
JMF
August 29th, 2011
5:36 pm
I love Borne in centerfield. However, I think Constanza is a .280-.300 hitter. There is nothing to suggest he is a fluke. He has always hit around .300. His style is the type of hitter who will always be a .300. He reminds me of Juan Pierre.
I so not understand. Please bring up P at shortstop. Give him the job. What he will only hit .270. We are only getting .240 now. I do not know anything about P’s defense but unless it is a glaring liability please bring him up.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:38 pm
Anybody see my secret decoder?
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:39 pm
take Brooks’ 1350 ribbies and add 600 runs saved and you get way more runs than from Chipper
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:40 pm
Shaun- I totally agree with your 5:35. That’s twice today. I need to go lie down.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:41 pm
need to keep up with that thing Anders. Mets fans need all the help they can get when conversing with knowledgeable fans from other teams………
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:41 pm
How do you measure a run saved? How many does Chipper have? I’m guessing you should add that to the equation -no?
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:42 pm
noliee- Like the knowledgable one at 5:36 that I needed it for? Yep, these are your brethren.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
5:43 pm
@ JMF yeah and Juan Pierre is not very good at the game of baseball.
@monty well he’s only played in 29 games in total and he’s been looking mediocre for the best 2 weeks. He’s regressing back to his normal numbers . an overvalued .300 hitter with no power, avg defense and an avg base stealer % wise. he stinks, he’s going to continue to stink and just because he’s fast our rather unfortunate mgr will keep running him out there…….. Constanza is a 4th OF’er who shouldn’t be starting for the Royals much less the Braves.
Moe Berg
August 29th, 2011
5:45 pm
SBerthiaumeESPN Steve Berthiaume
Ryan Howard 1 RBI shy of becoming just 3rd #Phillies player since 1900 with 6, 100-RBI seasons. Phils at #Reds tonight on ESPN.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:45 pm
Chipper was a below defender. he’s lucky I ain’t taking runs off of him
Coach (2011 Fredi G. a go!)
August 29th, 2011
5:45 pm
JMF, there is a reason why Constanza spent the better six years in the minors. Just as there is a reason he is in the big leagues, and reasoning tells what I my eyes are already seeing. Constanza is at best a fourth outfielder/bench player while Heyward’s ceiling can’t even begin to be estimated as of yet.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:46 pm
if you couldn’t figure out that referred to the difference in sample size between the two players Anders, you seriously do need that ring. sigh.
CajunStorm
August 29th, 2011
5:47 pm
McOut, Where is Kawakami, Linebrink, off the books next year = Approx. $15-$17 Mill
Since you have Boras in the mix you have to blow them away with an extension. So if $6.5 – $7mill is what he’d get in arbitration we should offer him 5 yrs/$50 Million and structure it like ‘13=$12m, ‘14=$11m, ‘15=$10m, ‘16-$9m, ‘17=$8m.
This would allow the Braveauxs to spend it when they have it to spend. Declines when other players like Heyward, Freeman, McCann (again), Kimbrel, and Venters are ready to get their $.
The pitch is simply “We want you here and we’ll throw out your last year of arb and double your expected pay in ‘12. Quite simply you will never have a chance to recoup tomorrow the $6 mill more we are offering today.” This kid has truly worked his way up here from very humble beginnings. I think he takes it with or without Boras’ consent.
Hugo
August 29th, 2011
5:47 pm
Why would 10 games be enough to prove Constanza’s success is over? That 10 games is what fraction of the games he’s played? Can we at least wait until his average drops below .300 to decide he sucks? fractional difference over Heyward? Am i watching the same games?
Coach (2011 Fredi G. a go!)
August 29th, 2011
5:48 pm
Brooks Robinson made every pitcher who stepped on the mound better than they were. We can’t say the same for Chipper.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
5:49 pm
I was just perusing Constanza’s splits and I just noticed something odd. He gets worse the 2nd and 3rd time through the lineup against the starting pitcher…. (1.174, .895, . 679 respectively) that’s strange as most batters improve every time through….. I’m just not a Constanza fan. never was. there’s guys like him all over the game in the minors, they come up, have a hot month, then cool off and end up back in AAA again. He’s a AAAA player who’s only tools are his contact rate and his speed. But if it falls, he becomes expendable awfully fast.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:49 pm
noliee- Uhm, ok.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:50 pm
Brooks Robinson made every pitcher who stepped on the mound better than they were. We can’t say the same for Chipper. (CoacH)
Do you mean when they got in the batters box? {:
Coach (2011 Fredi G. a go!)
August 29th, 2011
5:51 pm
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:50 pm
Brooks Robinson made every pitcher who stepped on the mound better than they were. We can’t say the same for Chipper. (CoacH)
Do you mean when they got in the batters box? {:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Nope
NickB
August 29th, 2011
5:53 pm
10 games is enough because he’s becoming what his minor league numbers said he would. a light hitting corner OF’er with no pop and no plate discipline. (he’s played in 29 games so far) . It’s not like he’s some 21 year old phenom kid who hit a rough patch. Constanza is Charles Thomas but less talented and older. He will make a good 4th OF’er where he isn’t overexposed and he can cover all 3 spots when needed.
Let me put it this way, if he was arb eligible, the team would non-tender him. I don’t think it’s even debatable. I know they would/
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:54 pm
Sorry Coach- it was just sitting there waiting to be said. Take care folks.
Be back when I can. Good talking with you guys again.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
5:54 pm
Coach, but we can say Chipper was vastly better at the plate than Robinson.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:54 pm
I was in Baltimore and a mega Orioles fan when Brooksie and Gentile and Hanson and Estrada and Pappas came up. Huge Brooks fan, but I guess in all seriousness I rate Chipper higher.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
5:56 pm
Coach, and you use defensive WAR, so I’m assuming you trust it to some degree. So what do you think about overall WAR (that takes into account offense and defense and base-running and position) rating Chipper much higher than Brooks Robinson?
NickB
August 29th, 2011
5:57 pm
Brooks Robinson was a great fielder. But his glove isn’t enough to overshadow what a mediocre hitter he was. His career OPS is .200 points below Chipper, Mathews and Schmidts. That’s a vast difference
Heyward's Cult
August 29th, 2011
5:58 pm
Why would 10 games be enough to prove Constanza’s success is over?
Because he’s taking playing time away from Jason, the future Hall of Famer. And no, we can’t wait. We’ve been sitting here salivating for him to come down to earth and prove what a scrub he really is. These past ten games show he’s a career minor leaguer who should never have been allowed to play instead of the greatest outfielder in all of baseball.
TnBrian
August 29th, 2011
5:58 pm
I’ll ask all of you this question – do we have the pitching, mainly SP, to go far into the world series? I say it’s 60/40 in favor of no. That’s where I’m at right now.
Coach (2011 Fredi G. a go!)
August 29th, 2011
5:58 pm
Statistical proof that Ozzie Smith is the greatest of all time at his position. Anyone who has ever seen him play knows this to be true. Bill James once told Peter Gammons that Ozzie saved his team over 100 runs per season. That’s the difference between a 3.50 and a 4.30 ERA for a pitcher.
The same can be said of Brooks Robinson. He made every pitcher on the mound better due to his great defense at 3B.
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
6:01 pm
10 games is enough because he’s becoming what his minor league numbers said he would. a light hitting corner OF’er with no pop and no plate discipline.
He is “regressing” to his norm. I marked the end of his hot streak not long ago. It was pretty obvious. But, “no plate discipline” in the minors? He had plate discipline in the minors. He just didn’t have power. That could continue in the majors. It wouldn’t change the fact that he’s merely a speedy 4th outfielder. He’s better than Schafer in that regard, but that’s about it. He is certainly not a legitimate threat to secure a long term starting job in the Braves outfield unless he is still around after 2012 and this team decides to pass on Bourn. Even then I’d say his chances would be slim.
Coach (2011 Fredi G. a go!)
August 29th, 2011
6:01 pm
Shaun, I’ll always see the game different than most. Pitching is defense, defense is pitching. The two go together. Just like power and speed.
Brava
August 29th, 2011
6:03 pm
I’m just not a Constanza fan. never was.
I would have never gathered that by reading your comments.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
6:03 pm
Brooks and the Wizard of Oz. along with Andruw they are the three greatest defenders I ever saw play regularly.
I saw a good bit of Mays but not so much when he was real young and just a wee bit of Joltin’ Joe
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
6:03 pm
Coach, no one is arguing that Brooks Robinson wasn’t one of the best defensive players ever. I’m arguing that his overall value is higher than Chipper’s.
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
6:07 pm
Biff has hit .277/.346/.340/.687 over his last 16 games and 14 starts. Since his hand cooled off, he has shown an isolated discipline of .069, which is close to his career minor league level.
The talk has been on his last 10 games of .185/.241/.185/.427. One game can change those numbers. His last 11– .267/.333/.267/.600. Still no power (all singles in that time), but that was never his game.
Steve from OH
August 29th, 2011
6:09 pm
This is what’s great about baseball, isn’t it? There’s usually no right answer. I’m simply happy to say that Chipper is right up there with Brooks, one of the best 3B ever. That’s a pretty special player to say I’ve seen play.
Steve from OH
August 29th, 2011
6:10 pm
Wait, Biff’s come back down to Earth? Who could’ve ever foreseen this tragedy?
noliee
August 29th, 2011
6:11 pm
Biff has hit .277/.346/.340/.687…10P
he might be able to stay somewhere near that in the bigs. If so he will be a good 4th OFer
Coach (2011 Fredi G. a go!)
August 29th, 2011
6:13 pm
Another great example of how important defense is and why it’s underrated.
Back in the winter of 1990-1991 John Schuerholz knew he had the makings of a great young pitching staff. So what did our venerable GM do? He surrounded them with defense. Schuerholz brought in Pendleton, Bream, Nixon and Belliard because they were all great with the glove. Their offense was incidental and of secondary concern. Atlanta already had the great young bats in Ron Gant and David Justice. Nixon could run but again, he was brought in to play defense.
What happened? We all know what happened. Pitching, defense, power and speed turned our Braves into a WS caliber team. Our 2011 Braves are comparable to some degree but are still improving.
Steve from OH
August 29th, 2011
6:13 pm
nolie–yeah, I agree. He might not be a bad 4th OF if he can get on base consistently. He’s got some useful skills.
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
6:16 pm
he might be able to stay somewhere near that in the bigs. If so he will be a good 4th OFer
Agreed. I could see that as being more of his level of production. Certainly more so than the .400 line he was posting for the first 10 games.
Coach (2011 Fredi G. a go!)
August 29th, 2011
6:17 pm
Chipper Jones is ranked among the top five third basemen and top five switch hitters of all time. But he can’t hold a candle to Brooks Robinson’s glove work. If ya’ll want to rank Chipper higher overall, that’s fine by me.
southgabrave
August 29th, 2011
6:17 pm
I saw Brooks play many times and I can say that Brooks defense is far superior to Chippers. On the other hand I can also say that Chippers bat is far superior to Brooks bat. They are two different type players. The Orioles needed Brooks defense more than his bat on those teams. He wasn’t counted on a 3-5 hitter most of his career. The Braves need Chipper more for his bat than is glove. He has always been a 3-hole hitter on the Braves. He was counted on to drive the offense for the Braves. I saw Brooks win a World Series with his defense. Which is better? I think it would depend on the type of team each is surrounded with? I would find a place for either on my team any day.
MIBravesFan
August 29th, 2011
6:23 pm
“ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
4:25 pm
But, is Leyland’s closer use ‘optimal’…
I think Leyland still wears cleats at the ballpark, so my guess is that he give a person suggesting “optimal” use of a bullpen his most sympathetic look of pity. Or incredulity. Or scorn. Or maybe the one that says, “You see what kind of bull-bleep I have to put up with in this bleepin’ office?”.
One of those.”
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
6:37 pm
Cough.
DS1
August 29th, 2011
6:42 pm
Kinda like “Who is the greatest guitar player of all time?” (although guitar players do not have “stats” to compare)
They are BOTH great ballplayers. Which one do you prefer? I prefer the one that is playing on my team!
What?
August 29th, 2011
6:43 pm
Are the Braves still playing? Is it over and how did we come out?
keylargo
August 29th, 2011
6:45 pm
My eyes tell me Heyward is an above average left fielder but not great.
Really? I’ve never seen him play LF.
Undiagnosed Dyslexia, but it makes me wonder if he thinks McCann & Chipper throw LH.
reckingball
August 29th, 2011
6:47 pm
Eric Clapton
noliee
August 29th, 2011
6:52 pm
Eric & Duane
Stereowire
August 29th, 2011
6:55 pm
Pretty nice break for the Braves to be get a 3 day break in the dog days…especially with Chipper and McCann being key players and the bullpen’s need for a rest.
Atlanta Fan
August 29th, 2011
6:55 pm
Don’t think for one minute that the salaries quoted here will interest Mr. Boros one tiny bit. He knows of the lack of CF prospects the Braves have and the spark he has added to the team. He will use that to jack up Bourn’s perceived value. No figure less than 80 million for a four or five year contract will be acceptable to him. And don’t think for another minute that the final decision is up to Bourn.
BravesAC
August 29th, 2011
6:56 pm
Is it the off-season already?!?!? It sure feels like it.
Did we sign any free agents? Is Lowe traded yet? Did we dump Boras clinets yet? Wait. What? It’s not the off season already? Nevermind.
No games to read about/watch can get ya a little crazy, you know?
BravesAC
August 29th, 2011
6:58 pm
I do agree that the bullpen getting an unexpected big break can help a lot later in the post season. That’s what I see as the biggest benefit to this break.
BravesAC
August 29th, 2011
7:00 pm
By the way, Schafer seems to be doing fine for the Astros. I’m really glad we have Bourn but I wish Schafer(sp?) well too. I sure like how he exited with class. It’s like this season we got to watch him mature as a person.
BravesAC
August 29th, 2011
7:02 pm
Will four comments in a row get me at LEAST an honorable mention on one of those “how many times they posted” lists?????
MIBravesFan
August 29th, 2011
7:03 pm
Little did I know it at the time, but now it turns out to have been a good thing I missed last Monday’s game. It give me something to watch tonight as Braves withdrawal seriously starts to set in.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
7:03 pm
Geesh! They shoulda moved this Thursday’s game to tonight!
MIBravesFan
August 29th, 2011
7:03 pm
gives
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
7:08 pm
Whew, time to suck it up and root for Cincinnati. Despising the Phillies can be a tough job sometimes.
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
7:23 pm
Hamels asks “What arm soreness?” as he breezes through the 1st inning.
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
7:31 pm
Alex Gordon is having a pretty good season. KC lucked out on Frenchie and Melky, too.
Kat
August 29th, 2011
7:33 pm
Anyone use Firefox 6.0 on this blog? I’ve been getting Adobe Flash 10 errors the past week (updated and reinstalled Adobe Flash and still getting the error). It’s not always..which makes me think it’s specific advertisments that are causing the problem. Happening to anyone else?
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
7:35 pm
Kat,
I use Firefox 6.0 but have had no such problems. Possibly because I have adblocked the trouble causing entities.
Kat
August 29th, 2011
7:40 pm
Snotboogie-
They’re not popup ads so unsure if that would solve the problem. I’ve read the past two versions of Firefox have had flash issues. Guess I’ll have to wait until a newer version comes out and use IE for now for the blog. Thanks for the info.
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
7:50 pm
If you already have adblock plug-in installed (not pop-ups but all ads) and still have problems, you could try a plugin to block all scripts or just flash.
Kat
August 29th, 2011
7:51 pm
Would it block all flash because I wouldn’t want it to block everything that uses flash..
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
7:53 pm
By default it’ll will block flash and give you a flash symbol to click on and run a specific video should you choose to.
Bravefaninok
August 29th, 2011
7:55 pm
I use FF 6.0 no flash issues so far.
Bravefaninok
August 29th, 2011
8:04 pm
1-0 reds in the 4th.
MIBravesFan
August 29th, 2011
8:05 pm
Thanks, Bravefaninok
M.P.
August 29th, 2011
8:11 pm
“It going to be sunny sky over Turner Field today”
Just Pat
August 29th, 2011
8:28 pm
I HATE coming to a blog so late like I did today because I always want to go back and read as many posts as I can. THEN, I read several relevant posts and want to say “kudos” to those posters, but am still 3 or 4 pages behind. Anyway, to all you guys who made such great posts today (I’ll let YOU figure out who I’m talking about), thanks……..I enjoyed them all.
Just Pat
August 29th, 2011
8:29 pm
Oh, yeah…..and DOB……..YOUR blogs are ALWAYS appreciated. Thanks!
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
8:32 pm
Alex Gordon is having a pretty good season. KC lucked out on Frenchie and Melky, too.
Yet they can only win at a .410 clip. Such is life and luck in KC. They have position players galore, but man are they woeful on pitching, stoking the rumours that they would like to be Braves’ trade partners in the offseason.
Just Pat
August 29th, 2011
8:33 pm
I do know this……anyone talking about trading Prado (hex sign here!) or denigrating Heyward simply for the recent “what have you done for me lately” aspect, have no idea what you’re talking about. You’re probably the same ones who wanted to bench Uggla “back when”.
Sally Fingelsten
August 29th, 2011
8:36 pm
I have been happily married for 59 years and now I think my husband Stanley is cheating on me. My friend Delores told me to see is he has one of those internet facebooks and see if meets his girlfriend there. He is a braves fan. Can one of you braves fans tell me how to find him cheating on facebook?
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
8:37 pm
Grab ‘em by the collar, and shake ‘em up, Pat!
Tom in Lawrenceville
August 29th, 2011
8:37 pm
Excellent article! This is journalism.
Just Pat
August 29th, 2011
8:38 pm
If he’s rooting for the Philthy Phillies…….he’s cheating!
Just Pat
August 29th, 2011
8:41 pm
T for Texas
Just remember what Brian Jordan said way back during Uggla’s struggles…….”turn the baseball card over, folks, and look at the back”. Pretty much summed it up. Now, Heyward doesn’t have that longevity, but……DOES have all the promise.
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
8:44 pm
Amen, Pat. Just gotta let him play through it.
Just Pat
August 29th, 2011
8:44 pm
Should say Heyward doesn’t have that longevity in the majors, but……go back through his minor (and before then) career…….
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
8:48 pm
Phillies with 33 games in 31 days, coming up. Including 4 with MIL, 4 with STL, and 6 with ATL.
Lew
August 29th, 2011
8:49 pm
Power just came back on. Lots of flooding up here and over 270 roads washed out. Could take over a month to get power back to everyone, but we’re doing fine.
MIBravesFan
August 29th, 2011
8:50 pm
Good to hear, Lew
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
8:50 pm
Good deal, Lew.
Just Pat
August 29th, 2011
8:50 pm
Lew
So glad to hear it. A lot of your “fans” on here today were worried about you (including me).
tiger297
August 29th, 2011
8:52 pm
stanley isn’t cheating on you he is spending time in the dog house with nolie…
MIBravesFan
August 29th, 2011
8:52 pm
I mean that you and yours are doing fine and have your power back.
Just Pat
August 29th, 2011
8:54 pm
Time to sign off for the evening. Hey!!!! Since there’s no game…….I spent some good time on here READING about the Braves, at least. Thanks, guy-o-s. See ya……????????
brian d
August 29th, 2011
8:55 pm
I’ve been reading the blog for three years or so. I’m glad you are ok Lew.
z
August 29th, 2011
8:58 pm
Should they sign Bourn? Is this a serious question?
Sally Fingelsten
August 29th, 2011
9:00 pm
thank you dear…
D.J.
August 29th, 2011
9:01 pm
Further evidence that Martin Prado is awesome: http://ow.ly/i/gtC4
Bravefaninok
August 29th, 2011
9:05 pm
Lew
August 29th, 2011
8:49 pm
Power just came back on. Lots of flooding up here and over 270 roads washed out. Could take over a month to get power back to everyone, but we’re doing fine.
Good to hear Lew,Glad you and yours are doing ok.
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
9:08 pm
Shane Victorino. Nemesis.
MIBravesFan
August 29th, 2011
9:11 pm
Well that explains how that score went from 1-1 to 3-1 in the wrong direction.
Bourn
August 29th, 2011
9:16 pm
I think a 4 year deal for anywhere from 8-10/yr is fair. Victorino signed a 3 year 22 million dollar deal ~7.3 million/yr. For as much as I hate Victorino he’s a good CF’er and I think comparable to Bourn. Victorino plays good defense, hits for more power but steals less bases. I think if Boras asks for over 10 he’s out of his mind as I don’t believe anyone is paying that for Bourn. I think if the Braves could get Bourn for 4 years at 9 per that would be perfect.
Spud
August 29th, 2011
9:23 pm
His agent is Boras. That is all you need to know. He will “test” free agency after 2012 and he’ll sign somewhere else. How many Boras free agents end up signing with their current team? A pretty low percent I’d guess.
Salt life
August 29th, 2011
9:23 pm
Vick + eagles= epic fail. $100 million? Really? I don’t like the phillies. Cause it’s baseball. It’s rivalry but this? Nice going Philly enjoy all the karma that comes your way
Kat
August 29th, 2011
9:27 pm
Lew-
Glad you are okay. I’ve been watching the local news seeing the flooding in the Catskills and Vermont…very crazy. Although there’s little coverge on the national media since those places aren’t NYC. Hopefully they’ll get some aid out to you folks soon. Some crazy videos http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/videos-show-upstate-york-vermont-irene-flooding-153510538.html
tiger297
August 29th, 2011
9:36 pm
3 days with no braves – I’ve spent so much time working in my yard I can’t remember which came first. My love of the braves or my disdain for yardwork that I get to avoid by loving the braves…
Nova Scotia Steve
August 29th, 2011
9:39 pm
I’m glad to hear everything is alright as well Lew.
All the best
monty
August 29th, 2011
9:40 pm
Last 28 days, Constanza – .337,.387,.449,.832 and that factors in his recent regression(LOL).
Heyward – .190, .255,.357,.612 and that factors in his recent upswing(LoL).
Shame on FG for letting Constanza steal playing time from the great JHEY KID!! Who happens to be hitting .188 against LHP for the year. And Constanza has hit.429 against them. Some of you guys need to reread some of your past posts of condemnation for guys that have outperformed Heyward this year. Heyward may have tons of potential, but it’s crazy to put down Constanza and act as if he hasn”t contributed and Heyward is some kind of god. Not this year.He’s barely even a mortal.
keylargo
August 29th, 2011
9:41 pm
Lew – Just load you, the Mrs. and a dog or two and head down to the keys. If you want to get away from that mess and can, I’m down here ready and serious that you can stay for a week or so. Of course you may have to return the favor if during the heat wave you have every year, that it gets to 80 minimun, I might apppear. Cooler temps now cause me to turn blue, become immobile and whine for several days about being cold.
Hard on the Beaver Ward
August 29th, 2011
9:42 pm
Why not. The Braves have a history of offering extensions without any concrete proof of performance.
Ron Hyatt
August 29th, 2011
9:44 pm
Joey Terdoslavich
Boy oh boy, the nickname for this one. Turd Sammich.
tiger297
August 29th, 2011
9:49 pm
kl – is it getting below 80 at night down there yet?
keylargo
August 29th, 2011
9:53 pm
Tiger – It’s going to be 90+ daytime and 80+ nighttime for another month or so.
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=33043
chris
August 29th, 2011
10:08 pm
I would put MB’s value at around 5 yrs./55 million. But Boras is going to push for a lot more if Bourn can duplicate this season next year. Don’t expect any type of “hometown” discount or ANY discount for that matter if he is a Scott Boras client. One BIG difference between Bourn and Pierre that wasn’t mentioned was defense. Pierre has the worst arm for any outfielder in MLB. Seems like a good guy & by all accounts has a great work ethic but he is an absolute liability on defense.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
10:10 pm
sure lets pay 10mil per for 5 years for a guy having a career year.
MIBravesFan
August 29th, 2011
10:13 pm
Actually that’s 11 mil per, but who’s counting? Except Scott Boras, of course.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
10:14 pm
Bourn 8 steals, 5 caught stealing = 62% = negative long term liability.
needs to pick that up. must be something in the water here that stops base stealing dead in its tracks
noliee
August 29th, 2011
10:15 pm
I wasn’t referring to just that post. 10mil or so has been thrown around a lot today
BFChris26
August 29th, 2011
10:23 pm
Just got back from my 1st Church Softball League Game. I was 2 for 2 with 3 RBIs. Both RBI singles.
MIBravesFan
August 29th, 2011
10:25 pm
Congratulations, BFChris!
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
10:30 pm
nolieee must be something in the water here that stops base stealing dead in its tracks
Hmm…we really need to get better involved with providing proper hydration for the opposition…
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
10:30 pm
That’s great, BFChris!
noliee
August 29th, 2011
10:31 pm
gotta step it up a notch, chicks dig the long ball Chris
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
10:32 pm
Maybe, given the terms of Shane Victorino’s current contract, Bourn can be signed for a reasonable amount, less than $10M, and I’d say less than $9M per year. But personally, I’d take Victorino on my team all day, everyday–and that’s no slight on Mike.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
10:33 pm
he says as two dffferent ladies give Chris kudos
noliee
August 29th, 2011
10:33 pm
I like Mr. Hawaii too
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
10:38 pm
He wrecked a very good start by Homer Bailey tonight. 2 run dinger to make it 3-1. Clutch.
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
10:40 pm
That power is what I think makes Victorino a superior ballplayer to Bourn.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
10:40 pm
noliee—
I’ll take any hit, especially if it comes with an RBI or two (or three…)!
Of course, you all know what my FAVORITE kind of hit is……
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
10:41 pm
noliee I like Mr. Hawaii too
This may be the last thing I ever say to you…
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
10:43 pm
Aw, c’mon McFann. You know that hating a ballplayer is the closest you can get to loving a ballplayer.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
10:43 pm
McF, its all Tfor’s fault. he brought Shane up and made me say nice things about him………..
Venice Jim
August 29th, 2011
10:44 pm
Well done, BFChris – someday I’ll have to tell the story of going up to bat with a .795 average for the year, knowing it was my last at bat, aware that I would end up at .800 or .775…or, maybe not..
(co-ed softball leagues can work well when you can place the ball with relative accuracy)…
.
BFChris26
August 29th, 2011
10:45 pm
Thanks guys n gals. I had a lot of fun playing. We lost, but we played hard, they just played harder. 2 for 2 after not playing in a long time is actually what I call a success for me lol.
Our next game is in 2 weeks (all games will be on a Monday night), because of next Monday being Labor Day.
tiger297
August 29th, 2011
10:46 pm
peckertino I do not like and regardless of his skill I would not want him on a team I support…
noliee
August 29th, 2011
10:47 pm
oh poop
Venice Jim
August 29th, 2011
10:48 pm
Shows you how the blog has suffered the last four days – 10 pages already today, yet on the last blog 2nd and 3rd place went to people who thrive on inanities and non sequiturs…
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
10:48 pm
See, McFann. Tiger practically adores Victorino.
tiger297
August 29th, 2011
10:48 pm
vj – poor pitch recognition combined with slow bat speed results in many Ric Flair’s to right…but we can call it placement if you like
Venice Jim
August 29th, 2011
10:49 pm
Of course, #1 was a non-ending font of baseball wisdom and acumen…
Venice Jim
August 29th, 2011
10:50 pm
And 4th place was the most enthusiastic of all of us…
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
10:50 pm
noliee—
Hmm…I can’t decide if I should let that slide or not…
T for Texas—
That thin line between love and hate, eh? Not this time…that line is 9 feet think and made of solid STEEL, man!!
noliee
August 29th, 2011
10:50 pm
was I second or third???
Venice Jim
August 29th, 2011
10:51 pm
tiger297 – when the weakest player on the team is in right, the arc of the pitch plays itself perfectly into the double down the right field line…
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
10:51 pm
V. Jim—
Enthusiastic and starving for some BASEBAAAALLLL!!!
Yowza…just a few long hours to go!…
Venice Jim
August 29th, 2011
10:52 pm
1 noliee 216
2 Tom O’Hawke 159
3 Venice Jim 141
4 McFann :Ô: :Ô: 129
5 cabravesfan 97
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
10:52 pm
V. Jim Of course, #1 was a non-ending font of baseball wisdom and acumen…
Whoa, wait…I thought you said I was 4th…
Venice Jim
August 29th, 2011
10:52 pm
I was about to comment on 5th place, but she is beyond my commenting capability…
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
10:53 pm
Alright, McF. I will take you, and tiger’s at your word on the depth of your dislike for Shane.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
10:54 pm
BFChris—
A success for sure! Sorry your team lost, though…
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
10:55 pm
T for Texas—
I mean, I don’t wish any harm on the guy, but I do like when he makes outs/errors, stuff like that…especially against us!…
noliee
August 29th, 2011
10:58 pm
wow, 216? no wonder you said non-stop
tiger297
August 29th, 2011
10:59 pm
mcfann is nicer than me…I shall leave it at that for now
Venice Jim
August 29th, 2011
10:59 pm
We just returned from a little place down at the Redondo Beach Pier, where we dined on appetizers and Happy Hour beverages (excellent timing with no late students and no Braves game)…kept the blog in mind when I hit the Music Machine (not exactly a Juke Box) and played Folsom Prison…
tiger297
August 29th, 2011
10:59 pm
I had 59 on the last blog and didn’t post for the last 2-3 days of it
Venice Jim
August 29th, 2011
11:00 pm
nolie – I just could not keep up with Tom staying up all night conversing with Ward…(and his padding was a bad as mine, despite what BAS claimed this morning)…
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
11:01 pm
Yeah, McFann, I am disappointed in myself. I may actually like the guy. He’s a Phillie, and that shame is on me if I can’t manage to muster up some bile for him.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
11:01 pm
well in my defense, many of mine were storm related……..
Venice Jim
August 29th, 2011
11:01 pm
(unless you count the last ten posts there after the new blog posted)…
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
11:01 pm
129 might be a record for me…didn’t even think I was posting that much—my apologies to everyone!
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
11:02 pm
T for Texas—
Tsk tsk tsk…that is pretty bad!
MIBravesFan
August 29th, 2011
11:02 pm
Being asked to think about Victorino in a Braves uniform in 2013 is a little much for me. I like the idea of keeping Bourn better at this point. But it will all play out however it plays out. I’d rather stay focused on 2011. I cannot wait to see tomorrow night’s game!
Have a good night, everyone, and take care.
Venice Jim
August 29th, 2011
11:06 pm
nolie – well, that was the main topic, so you need not defend yourself…
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
11:09 pm
I’m not advocating signing Victorino. We’re seeing his best playing days right now, I think. He’s gonna be on the down side, or close to it, when it comes time for his next contract.
tiger297
August 29th, 2011
11:14 pm
everybody see our boys serving at Mortons?
http://ow.ly/i/gtC4
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
11:14 pm
Oh well, before I break my own record here, I better call it quits for the night. Gonna be kinda weird having a game tomorrow, ha! Was kinda cool today (I think it was in the 80’s, but the humidity was low), so it almost felt like baseball’s-over type weather…especially with no weekend games…
But anyhoo, Night, all!
David O'Brien
August 29th, 2011
11:15 pm
Since the start of the 2009 season, Michael Bourn has more steals (160) than Jose Reyes (75) and Jimmy Rollins (76) combined.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
11:15 pm
tiger—
OK, that’s hilarious! What in the world…?
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
11:21 pm
Ah-ha! Here’s the deal-ee-o…
http://www.danuggla.org/news_events.php?nID=12
Cute…OK, I’m really out, now…
BFChris26
August 29th, 2011
11:39 pm
There were other Braves fans at the softball game too, but they were playing in a different game tho.
Venice Jim
August 29th, 2011
11:39 pm
Looks like McFann’s departure killed the blog – well, last night it was my presence…
Venice Jim
August 29th, 2011
11:40 pm
And Chris ruins the timing of my post…
tiger297
August 29th, 2011
11:42 pm
when its sleepy time down south…wait am I still allowed to use this or is it time for me to give it up?
richbrave
August 29th, 2011
11:43 pm
Learning how to navigate on a MAC. Reports will be slow from here on until I get up to speed. I’m old. It’ll take awhile. Hey. LEW, hope you haven’t been washed away.
Venice Jim
August 29th, 2011
11:43 pm
tiger297 – you own it now – I wish I ha my own catch phrase…
Venice Jim
August 29th, 2011
11:44 pm
“had”
richbrave
August 29th, 2011
11:45 pm
VJ:
SEAN LISSAMORE got some good ink in the sports section today.
Doc Holliday
August 29th, 2011
11:45 pm
What I see is that Bourn has played well in Atlanta. A star that has no history of disturbing the clubhouse. There no single negative thing you can say about that guy. So why shouldnt the Braves go ink him?
Theres almost nothing else that the braves are looking for but a CF. Constanza, Heyward and Prado are set for next season…………IF is also set…………SP is set………….
Ink you leadoff guy whom is a star…………..lets do it.
Venice Jim
August 29th, 2011
11:45 pm
richbbrave – it’s late – go to bed, old man…
How is everything in my old stomping grounds?
Venice Jim
August 29th, 2011
11:49 pm
timing is good Saturday – going to see USC-Minnesota, but will get home in time to see Tribe-UVA on ESPN3.com – (and since Braves play Dodgers, can listen to beginning of game on the radio on the way home)…
BFChris26
August 29th, 2011
11:51 pm
BFChris26
August 29th, 2011
11:52 pm
I is so sore right now
But I had loads of fun
Venice Jim
August 30th, 2011
12:06 am
Lincecum got hit hard by the Cubs tonight – 5 runs in 6 innings – Cubs up 6-0 in the 7th…
Venice Jim
August 30th, 2011
12:07 am
Looks like 9 game wild card lead – unless the Giants score twice as many runs in the last three innings as they normally do in a game…
Venice Jim
August 30th, 2011
12:10 am
Okay – no more talking to myself – good night, me…
NO MORE PARRISH
August 30th, 2011
12:28 am
Pretty sure the Giant’s fire their hitting coach after this season. Crap! I had no idea someone could be worse than Parrish.
NO MORE PARRISH
August 30th, 2011
12:30 am
Yes sign Bourn for whatever. Sorry but Constanza does not have same year in 2012. If anything Constanza is trade bait along with McLousy in the off season.
NickB
August 30th, 2011
12:32 am
.sigh Mclouth is a FA after this season…. try and keep up people. Constanza has no trade value. His best value is either as AAA depth or as a 4th OF’er for the Braves.
I honestly still think we should trade Prado while he still has some value, cus I’m afraid that he will not have much if he keeps regressing.
noliee
August 30th, 2011
1:36 am
he is not regressing. in statistical terms regression means to go toward the established mean whichever way that is. at this point he would be regressing if he were getting better, which is not what you seem to be meaning
Ward
August 30th, 2011
2:36 am
Hello Every one!I read some of the comments on Bourn again,and I say sign him to a five year deal with an 1 year extension,and a bonus for great numbers……..
Ward
August 30th, 2011
2:39 am
We keep Prado,and let go of Lowe, Nate,and K.K. Gonzalez. Sign Infante,and bring up Pastornicky. I think he will be ready for next year,and then save some money for a big time third baseman for the following year………
Ward
August 30th, 2011
2:44 am
Next year the Braves wont have to do too much! We just need a couple of good bench players,and that wont be hard to find……..
Ward
August 30th, 2011
3:19 am
A while back we were talking about third basemans. Where would you rank Buck Weaver?
Ward
August 30th, 2011
3:22 am
Well, I talk tomorrow after the game,and peace every one!”Go!!!!! Braves!!!!!”
RAG
August 30th, 2011
7:08 am
Great job DOB. I keep hearing rumors that Liberty Mutual plan to sell
the Braves in 2012-13. How do you anticipate the Braves will handle new
contracts and aquisitions in a “For Sale” environment?
Ron H.
August 30th, 2011
7:10 am
Hopefully the Braves don’t get owned by the Nats again…
Teheran dominance!
August 30th, 2011
7:19 am
If the potential NLCS game 7’s match-up would be Halladay, Lee , Hamels VS Lowe,
That would be as automatic as it gets.
D-Lowe should not be a starter in october, period!!!
Random
August 30th, 2011
7:27 am
T for Texas (August 29th, 2011 9:08 pm): “Shane Victorino. Nemesis.”
The Grim Reaper.
Mixxo
August 30th, 2011
7:30 am
My boy Shane lifts his team late with a big blast!
Guy is AWESOME!
The Nats own us.
Random
August 30th, 2011
7:34 am
RAG (August 30th, 2011 7:08 am): “Great job DOB. I keep hearing rumors that Liberty Mutual plan to sell the Braves in 2012-13.”
I believe that depends on when and if Liberty Mutual actually buys the Braves from Liberty Media.
Ron H. (August 30th, 2011 7:10 am): “Hopefully the Braves don’t get owned by the Nats again…”
Rest easy, brother — I’m pretty sure that neither Liberty Media NOR Liberty Mutual will sell the Braves to the Nats.
O.J.
August 30th, 2011
7:39 am
gotta suck for the Giants though, knowing they had a rare opportunity to gain a little ground with the Braves having 3 days off all the sudden, and yet, they lose ground by going 1-2 in those two days. Just pitiful.
LWB
August 30th, 2011
7:46 am
So, let’s see……….3 days off and the Braves come back facing the Nats and Livan Hernandez? That’s a recipe for a 6-1 loss right there. I think the bats will be pretty cold tonight. Hope not though.
Moe Berg
August 30th, 2011
7:47 am
jimcaple Jim Caple
Here’s one you could win a lot of bar bets with: Who is active career leader in strikeouts? Bet you didn’t guess Javier Vazquez.
JRW
August 30th, 2011
7:59 am
Well the Phillies won one of the four games in hand. The four (now three) that the Braves can’t respond to, and are at the mercy of the Phillies opponents. Hamels looked a lot better coming of the DL than JJ did. Victorino wins another game for them with his glove and bat. Since this Blog is on Bourn, my ranking of Center Fielders this season would be…
1. Granderson
2. Kemp
3. Ellsbury
4. Victorino
5. Bourn
6. McCutchen
7. Jones
8. The Rest
Mixxo
August 30th, 2011
8:00 am
LWB –
It doesn’t get any easier tomorrow night either……..facing Lannan. We all know what he does to us.
I think we can beat Wang though. We’ll go 1-2 against these guys.
Jimmy
August 30th, 2011
8:00 am
McFann :Ô: :Ô: Jimmy – In fact, this year I’ve noticed he doesn’t even slide his body over to block a pitch in the dirt – just his glove.
“Not to be a smart[butt], but you must not watch many games, then.”
Actually, I watch every game I can. And that is what I’m basing my statement on. I know he’s your favorite player, but the truth is the truth.
Let’s watch him tonight. He should be fresh with the days off. Let’s see.
Random
August 30th, 2011
8:18 am
Teheran dominance! (August 30th, 2011 7:19 am): “If the potential NLCS game 7’s match-up would be Halladay, Lee , Hamels VS Lowe, That would be as automatic as it gets.
“D-Lowe should not be a starter in october, period!!!”
Yeah, right.
Not with 95.1 IP of postseason baseball, posting a 3.21 ERA and 1.15 WHIP and a .228 AVG against. Definitely don’t want HIM!
And especially not after his last year’s performance with the Braves in the NLDS — 11.2 IP, 2.31 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .150 AVG aginst.
Your and idiot.
Eleven in '11
August 30th, 2011
8:27 am
For the NLDS, you go with your best three
That would be Hudson, Beachy, and JJ or Hanson (if healthy)
Lowe becomes a starter only if the Braves reach the NLCS, and he’s the number four starter then (kind of like a struggling Avery was in 1995)
Eleven in '11
August 30th, 2011
8:28 am
Check that – if Hanson and JJ are both healthy, I would start either of them over Lowe in the NLCS
LWB
August 30th, 2011
8:31 am
Yeah, that’s right Mixxo. I think the Braves will win 2 out of 3, but I dont expect it to be pretty hehe. They looked totally dead in that one Mets game.
Mixxo
August 30th, 2011
8:45 am
…They looked totally dead in that one Mets game. – LWB
Yes they did. They looked whipped. Hopefully, this little break will spark some urgency and inspired play.
richbrave
August 30th, 2011
8:52 am
DOWN ON THE FARM
G-Men best BULLS 2-1
The man with the plan.1B ‘45′ GOMEZ [.292 BA] comes through going 3-3, 1 2B [32], 2 RBI [76], 1 BB.
DH STEF GARTRELL [.265] 2-2, 2 BB.
2B RUBEN GOTAY [.259 BA] 1-3, 2 R, 2 BB, 1 SO.
TODD REDMOND [10-8, 2.91 ERA] 6.0 IP. 6 H, 1 R/ER, 3 BB, 9 SO. TODD was dealin’ last night. This start he’s up. Next one………..who knows.
CORY GEARRIN [H 5, 1.79 ERA] 1.2 IP, no hits, 1 BB, 4 SO. Also dealin.’
JAIRO ASENCIO [SV 24, 1.39 ERA] 1.1 IP, pristine. Everybody was on the same page tonight pitching-wise.
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
8:55 am
Wow. Giants lost….again. 10 games back in the loss column. If the Braves go 15-14 down the stretch, they will have a 94-68 record. To force a one game playoff, the Giants would have to 23-4. 23 wins….and 4 losses. And that’s with the Braves going a mediocre 15-14 in their last 29 games.
richbrave
August 30th, 2011
9:00 am
Yard clean-up soon. Been filling trashcans and the truck with storm damage. Lots of damage to neighbors homes, one completely crushed by a massive oak, but this time, no one killed thank God. During ISABEL we lost a neighbor to a falling tree. Wind topped out here at 71. Worse than on the coast. Only minor flooding however. We had hot tropical air trapped under the rain-bands which brought the high winds aloft down to ground level. All our neighbors have power out. Estimate friday for it’s return. We have a new below ground power line, and only lost power for about 30 seconds thank goodness.
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
9:05 am
Hope everything went okay at Dr. Andrews yesterday…..
JRW
August 30th, 2011
9:16 am
Good to hear your well richbrave. That storm left a lot of damage in many areas. Particularly with flooding up north.
JRW
August 30th, 2011
9:21 am
This is pretty cool from the Dodgers game.
http://www.foxsportswest.com/08/29/11/Blind-woman-throws-out-first-pitch/landing_dodgers.html?blockID=555478&feedID=7972>1=39002
John A
August 30th, 2011
9:23 am
If the management team can get Scott Boras out of the picture, then it would be worth the effort. The front office has shot themselves in the foot many times, and I don’t see anything changing this time. Of course Frank can always rely of McLouse (his brain child). He is in love with his press clippings.
What management has to keep in mind is pretty simple….in order for the pitchers to win they have to score runs. Having said that keep in mind we still need a power hitting bat from the right side of the plate.
As much as I hate to say this, because i’m a strong fan of his, JHEY needs a refreher course (AAA level) in hitting. He has many holes in his swing, and until they are addressed
raleighbravefan
August 30th, 2011
9:30 am
Very little damage in Raleigh. A lot more as you go east. We lost power for 11 hours, but most did not. We live in an old neighborhood with lots of trees and above ground power.
I hear Lew is OK. Hope he’s back on line soon. I miss my friend.
raleighbravefan
August 30th, 2011
9:32 am
richbrave – Good to hear you’re OK, my friend.
abeeeewright
August 30th, 2011
9:37 am
If the Braves put on a run right now and the Giants and Cardinals swoon, Braves could lock up a playoff spot in 10 games.
The E# = 20. Ten wins by the Braves + 10 losses by the Cards and Giants means playoffs.
Certainly by four days from now, Braves should have eliminated the Cubs as a possible threat. <g>
GoldMember
August 30th, 2011
9:41 am
Michael Bourn is “The Bourn Supremacy”! A fantastic, dynamic talent. The Braves must sign him if they are serious about remaining enduring contenders.
Arkansas Transplant
August 30th, 2011
9:43 am
richbrave, good to hear all is well. I’m glad no one was injured.
Lew
August 30th, 2011
9:46 am
raleighbraves -It’s a total mess up here. We lost power for Sunday and mot of Monday and the flooding (though it didn’t hit us personally) is widespread and will take months to clean up – over 270 roads washed out – with many small towns totally isolated. We’ve got a grocery store running on a generator and the pharmacy was a total loss. Most shopping centers here and in New Hampshire on the Connecticut River (state line between Vermont and NH) are a total losses – even the Wal Mart is shut down. Five dead so far and they’re still looking for missing persons.
abeeeewright
August 30th, 2011
9:50 am
Lew … I’m glad to hear you made it through OK.
Sounds like a major disaster in Vermont. The whole Northeast is a bit hinky when it comes to food supply. So much food has to be brought in to sustain the population. Losing the roads could be “Katrina-esque” for a state like Vermont.
I hope that Vermont gets an “all hands on deck” approach to get things back to normal in a few days as opposed to a few weeks.
raleighbravefan
August 30th, 2011
9:51 am
Lew – Good to hear from you. Sorry for the problems. I’ve been through it, but you don’t expect that in VT.
During Fran (1996) we lost power for 8 days. I’m opn a well, so we had to haul water to flush. Very hot also. Lots of damage all over. That was the only direct hit in raleigh during my lifetime, with the exception of Hazel, a terrible storm that hit in 1954. Easteern NC is hit from time to time, sometimes worse than others.
Good luck for a quick recovery, my friend.
raleighbravefan
August 30th, 2011
9:53 am
Surely FEMA will do a better job than during the Katrina disaster.
Lew
August 30th, 2011
9:56 am
abeeeewright – MY wife works at the Food Bank – not even sure if she can get to it – the bridge right down the street from it got inundated the other day. There’s even lines out the door and down the street at the convenience store in town – and we didn’t get hit nearly as bad as neighboring areas..
Arkansas Transplant
August 30th, 2011
10:01 am
raleighbravefan, they were stating in the news this morning that FEMA is out of money.. they are having to pull resources from elsewhere to help the immediate needs on the east coast.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 30th, 2011
10:02 am
Jimmy but the truth is the truth.
How true. And the truth is that he DOES block pitches—MANY pitches. But because there’s no recognized “stat” to back me up, it’s a little hard for me to prove this very easily…
So this year, I made my own stat, and am keeping track myself. I calculate them as Bases Saved and Runs Saved, and base them on how many men are on base—like, is he stops a tough pitch with two guys on, that’s 2 Bases Saved—and if there are any on third—if he stops a tough pitch with a guy on third, that’s a Run Saved. A more advanced way, I suppose, to calculate Runs Saved would be to, say, if he keeps a guy from advancing to second or third, and then the next guy gets a hit that would have scored him from that base, but not from the base he was held to, that’d be a Run Saved. Perhaps I’ll try to work that in for next year…
But for now, I have this: And this stat is slightly incomplete, because I’ve missed innings here and there, and also have missed entire games, I think, so obviously I can’t mark those down, because I didn’t see them and no one else has this stat at my disposal. But here’s what I do have so far this year:
Bases Saved: Approx. 99
Runs Saved: Approx. 34
PB(4)+WP: 37 (and not all those resulted in runs…yes, I should have been keeping a closer eye on that)
Arkansas Transplant
August 30th, 2011
10:03 am
Lew, did you get any damage at your place? Didn’t you mention before that you get some flooding under your house but you have a pump? With the power outages, I’m sure that made it more difficult to address.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 30th, 2011
10:03 am
Glad to hear from a bunch of our friends up the East Coast! Been thinkin’ about y’all all weekend!
DC Brave
August 30th, 2011
10:04 am
What I like about Michael Bourn: he’s already got that professional Atlanta Braves swagger. If he makes a great play or steals a base, he gets up and acts like that is what was “supposed” to happen. Just like Chipper after he hits a home run.
Sure I like to see some guys show a little fire (like Kimbrel does occassionally, or Freddie), but this team generally has that quiet confidence that shows an uncommon degree professionalism and class.
Bottom-line…if he’ll “settle” for 8 million a year, for 5 years, with some attractive incentives built in for 50 SB seasons…SIGN HIM.
John A
August 30th, 2011
10:06 am
At 3rd Base….did you ever hear the name BROOKS ROBINSON? He was the idol of George Brett, and that is why he choe to wear the number “5″.
abeeeewright
August 30th, 2011
10:08 am
Lew … maybe you can get tiger to fly over and drop food packages.
For those who go way back, the end of “Mr. Mike’s Mondo Video” had a scene of American aid packages dropped on a remote location. The natives killed the camera crew with the lava lamps.
DAP
August 30th, 2011
10:12 am
DC Brave if he’ll “settle” for 8 million a year, for 5 years, with some attractive incentives built in for 50 SB seasons
you cant do incentives like that in baseball contracts, but the $8mil per for 5 years is reasonable to me.
raleighbravefan
August 30th, 2011
10:13 am
Brooks Robinson was a GREAT 3rd baseman…maybe the best defensive ever, and no slouch with the bat. However, I did see him commit 3 errors in the same inning once (tv game of the week). People remember that, because it was so unlike him. Anyone can have a bad day, I guess.
JRW
August 30th, 2011
10:14 am
Since going 1-5 against the Braves and Phillies the D-Backs are 7-1 and opened a 5 game lead over the Giants in the West. THere’s the incentive for the Braves to somehow win the Division, it seems much better to open with Arizona at home vs. Milwaukee on the road.
JerseyGil
August 30th, 2011
10:16 am
Lew…glad you & Family are ok….We have damage here in South Jersey…For first time my Basement flood…4 inches of water…lost my Tower computer, modem of the internet,telephone was damage…today the cable guy came to replaces…But…why are ok…
raleighbravefan
August 30th, 2011
10:18 am
DAP – I din’t know you couldn’t put those kind of incentives. Doesn’t surprise me. MLB is the only sport with a REAL players union.
If you think about it, that would not necessarily be a good move anyway…it gives the individual player an incentive top do things that may not be ideal for the team and the situation. There are times when a stolen bese may take the bat out of the hitter, or change the situation in other negative ways.
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
10:19 am
I’ve revised slightly, but this is what I am going with:
Sign Bourn to a 5 year 43 million dollar deal(12: 7m, 2013-2016: 9m per year)
Sign Prado to a 3 year 21 million dollar deal with a 4th year option(12: 5.5m, 13: 6.5m, 14: 8m, 15: 8m or 1m buyout)
Sign McCann to a 5 year 60.5 million dollar deal(12: 8.5m, 2013-2016: 13m per year)
b
August 30th, 2011
10:22 am
Quit comparing Constanza to Willie Harris.
Georgie utilizes his MUCH greater speed to help the team.
It’s a shame it’s taken him this long to get a call up.
His stats bare that out compared to others who were summoned up.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
10:23 am
I say Brandon Beachy is the Braves’ best starting pitcher right now. He’s basically Johnny Venters with a lower walk rate and a higher homerun rate.
Anyone see the CAC post about Beachy possibly becoming only the 23rd pitcher in baseball history to strike out at least 10 batters per 9 IP, have a K/BB ratio of at least 4 and start at least 20 games in a single season?
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
10:25 am
b, Harris hits the ball with more authority while Constanza is faster. Constanza is more of a Gregor Blanco/Matt Young type.
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
10:26 am
Anyone see the CAC post about Beachy possibly becoming only the 23rd pitcher in baseball history to strike out at least 10 batters per 9 IP, have a K/BB ratio of at least 4 and start at least 20 games in a single season?
Yeah, I saw it. I’d rather have Tim Hudson on the mound in a post season game. Beachy is kind of homer prone.
Jimmy
August 30th, 2011
10:28 am
McFann – good stats. Maybe I’m focusing in on one particular game.
Anyway, you and I are on the same team. We want to win. And let’s start tonight.
BRAVES BASEBALL BABY – 7:10 !!!
Feels almost like a season opener.
JRW
August 30th, 2011
10:29 am
Why does everyone care what money it may take to keep Bourn? He’s great for this team with no Center Fielders in the wings. As long as the Braves keep him who cares how they use their money? The Phillies started spending money 3 years ago to keep their core and it seems to have gone alright for them so far with two WS appearances.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
10:30 am
Efrim, yeah, I think they have to make sure Beachy starts at home or in other non-homer-friendly parks. But guys like Schilling and Smoltz were sort of homer-prone, so I don’t think that’s a huge problem, as long as he’s only giving up solo shots when he gives them up.
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
10:32 am
Why does everyone care what money it may take to keep Bourn? He’s great for this team with no Center Fielders in the wings. As long as the Braves keep him who cares how they use their money
Because I can’t stand seeing the Braves overpay a player, especially in their decline phase. I want Wren to draw a hard line on that sort of stuff, kind of like he does with our top prospects. It’s a mid market payroll, 90-92 million. Can’t overpay guys in their mid thirties and then watch guys in their prime(Heyward,Freeman, Hanson, Kimbrel, etc.) walk away because we didn’t have the cash to lock em up.
Arkansas Transplant
August 30th, 2011
10:32 am
JerseyGil, glad to hear that your okay.. those things can be replaced, although I’m sure you lost a lot of important data on your computer.. hate that for you.
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
10:34 am
But guys like Schilling and Smoltz were sort of homer-prone, so I don’t think that’s a huge problem, as long as he’s only giving up solo shots when he gives them up.
I trust Schilling and Smoltz a bit more than Brandon. But he’d start Game 2 for me, right behind Tim Hudson. I’d probably consider starting Mike Minor in Game 3 if we were facing a lefty heavy lineup like the Phils. A shame Hanson is shelved. Hopefully Jair can get better and better with each start.
DAP
August 30th, 2011
10:35 am
shaun I say Brandon Beachy is the Braves’ best starting pitcher right now. He’s basically Johnny Venters with a lower walk rate and a higher homerun rate.
interesting about the venters comparison, but it would be hard to srgue that he is their best SP right now. the only challenger would be huddy, right?
i think beachy has the makeup to be an excellent post season pitcher. keeps his cool, strikes guys out, and has good control. like a righthanded andy petit.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
10:35 am
JRW, well, I can’t speak for everyone but it’s not just the money. I’m also concerned that Bourn could slip to merely an average offensive player or a little worse within a couple of seasons, and he’ll be getting paid like a legit all-star-caliber center fielder at that point. I’m thinking it could be a little bit like McLouth, although I don’t think Bourn will be as bad as McLouth was last season. Bourn is a much better defender than McLouth ever was, so at worst, even if Bourn doesn’t add much of anything offensively, he’s probably going to provide a lot of value defensively for a while.
Arkansas Transplant
August 30th, 2011
10:35 am
Efrim, it would work better to load Bourn’s contract up front and progressive decrease thru the years. Maybe something like this… 10 next year, 9 the next 2 years, 8mil in 2015 and finish up with 7mil in ‘16.
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
10:36 am
And I don’t think it’s, ahem, ‘optimal’, to lock up players to monster 10 year deals that take em from age 28 to age 38 like we’ve seen recently. That’s such a long period of time, no telling what could happen to effect a players production level.
JRW
August 30th, 2011
10:37 am
The only problem is that Wren is kind of in a hard place with Bourn. He has to get a free agent Center Fielder because of nothing of substance in the Minors and everyone has seen first hand that you have to be strong up the middle and have a true lead off hitter. I think the Braves are going to have to pay market to keep him especially with Boras as his agent.
Jimmy
August 30th, 2011
10:37 am
…They looked totally dead in that one Mets game. – LWB
Mixxo – “Yes they did. They looked whipped. Hopefully, this little break will spark some urgency and inspired play.”
Yeah, but I can understand what happened. They fly you from Chicago to New York – in the direct path of a hurricane, mind you – to play a three game weekend series that you know won’t be completed. You hear news reports that the airports will be closing around noon Saturday. If you don’t fly out by then, you are stuck in NYC until Monday or Tuesday. You are supposed to play in Atlanta Tuesday, etc…. The Mets live there and the Braves just wanted to get out. Their heads weren’t in the game.
MLB did a poor job in managing this storm… in my opinion. They knew the storm was running up the east coast and yet tried to force the games through. Look at that horrendous DH in Boston.
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
10:38 am
Maybe something like this… 10 next year, 9 the next 2 years, 8mil in 2015 and finish up with 7mil in ‘16.
Rarely do you see deals like that, although I know the Red Sox structured Lackey’s deal sorta like that. Players association want that last year to be the highest for arbitration purposes.
JRW
August 30th, 2011
10:39 am
Shaun, – I’m also concerned that Bourn could slip to merely an average offensive player or a little worse within a couple of seasons
*****************************************************************
Be honest, you can say that about any player. That risk is inherent to every contract in every sport
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
10:40 am
There are so many other ways Wren could go. He could always make a trade, sign a different free agent, sign a stop gap if we see a prospect up their game. A lot of things could change it.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
10:40 am
Efrim, good points. I think that sums it up pretty well. I would be a little surprised if Bourn is any kind of offensive force by the second year of his next contract. Once he starts to lose a little with the bat, I just don’t think he’ll be able to get on base at a good rate because he’s not really a guy that draws a ton of walks. But he will likely still be a plus defender in centerfield, which will have tremendous value. I tend to agree with you, if the contract demands are what we expect them to be. If there are any other decent, cheaper options for the Braves, perhaps they should explore those before offering Bourn a contract.
Lew
August 30th, 2011
10:42 am
Transplant – NO flooding at our place – the water in the basement before was from ten feet of snow right next to the house melting, but no more since they put the pump in. We’re halfway up a big hill, so the river would have to rise more than 100 feet or so before it flooded us.
We came through it all with just power loss for 27 hours. Since there were no Braves games to miss, all is well. Many others were nowhere near that lucky. It is a huge mess up here.
DAP
August 30th, 2011
10:42 am
AT it would work better to load Bourn’s contract up front and progressive decrease thru the years
its hard to do that, to. contracts go up, not down. especially for guys signing their first free agent deal. theres no way wren gets bourn to sign a declining salary contract.
Arkansas Transplant
August 30th, 2011
10:42 am
Efrim, not to mention it helps to protect against possible trades.. but it would work in the Braves favor to structure the contract like that, allowing for more flexibility in the future when you might actually need it. Don’t really need much next year with so much coming off the books.
raleighbravefan
August 30th, 2011
10:44 am
For all the detractors out there, the criticism of NcCaann is hard to understand. Everyone has some limitations. That said, he is almost universally considered the best catcher in the NL…perhaps all of baseball. Some may prefer Buster Posey, but he is hurt, and has the infamous “small sample size”. Let him do it over more than a season (or less).
Arkansas Transplant
August 30th, 2011
10:44 am
DAP, It’d be nice to do something like that.. kind of like the NLF where the guys get the signing bonus cause the rest of the contract isn’t guaranteed.
JRW
August 30th, 2011
10:45 am
Arkansas Transplant – Boras would not let a highly regarded free agent sign a decreasing value contract. Just ain’t going to happen.
Edward
August 30th, 2011
10:45 am
It’s simple Scott Boras will be the reason the Braves don’t sign Bourn to a long contract.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
10:47 am
JRW, true. That’s why a lot of free agent contracts turn out badly. By the time a player hits free agency, he’s usually a little bit past his prime. But some risks are better than others. It obviously depends on the player and his skills, position and things of that sort.
Bourn is somewhat unique because I see him as a risk offensively but he’s not that much of a risk as far as defensive position and defensive skills. Say he’s a league-average-or-slightly worse offensive player next year or the year after. Well, he’ll still likely provide a lot of value on defense and you can just plug him in at the bottom of the order.
Lew
August 30th, 2011
10:47 am
No legitimate lead off hitter since Furcal left and damned few even in MLB anymore and none others available. Bourn fits. Do the deal and be done with it – otherwise, it’s a continued search for the same damned thing year after year – not to mention a continuous bitch fest on the blog (though they’ll likely still gripe about Bourn).
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
10:48 am
I like that Peter Bourjos dude from LAA. Great defender.
I’m all for keeping Bourn if it’s at the right price – just don’t want it to effect the potential extension for a player like Mac. Gotta make sure we can fit all of these pieces. Just by eyeballing it, looks like we should be able to as far as I could see it – through 2015.
JerseyGil
August 30th, 2011
10:50 am
Arkansas Transplant
Thanks…but we have two laptop in my household…much of my client
raleighbravefan
August 30th, 2011
10:52 am
JRW – Phillies payroll is nearly double that of Braves. They can afford to overpay. If we overpay one player, it cripples us at other positions. (Re all the angst over KK, Lowe, McLouth, even Chipper money expressed here almost daily).
THAT’S WHY WE CARE HOW MUCH BOURN WILL COST US.
JerseyGil
August 30th, 2011
10:53 am
Client Data is in my laptop and in my backup….the tower is in my office for other think that my wife keep….but you are right think can replace,,,human life don’t.
JRW
August 30th, 2011
10:53 am
Lew – I agree and basically said that earlier in that Wren by aquiring Bourn has put himself in a position where he has to pay market value because of very few or no alternatives.
Shaun – Boras will most likely not let Bourn sign an extension with free agency opportunity at the end of next year. If his offensive numbers are with in 10% of this year he is going to get PAID and as I said earlier there really isn’t much to replace him without taking a big step backward.
Efrim
August 30th, 2011
10:53 am
Bourn is somewhat unique because I see him as a risk offensively but he’s not that much of a risk as far as defensive position and defensive skills. Say he’s a league-average-or-slightly worse offensive player next year or the year after. Well, he’ll still likely provide a lot of value on defense and you can just plug him in at the bottom of the order.
Which is why a five year deal from 2012-2016 probably works if the financials are in the range of 45 million. That’s takes him through age 33. It’s when it gets up beyond 50 million that it starts to get risky. And while were just talking a million more year, you really have to draw the line somewhere, imo.
JerseyGil
August 30th, 2011
10:54 am
Also was damage my Baseball card Collection….some are old card…
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
10:56 am
Lew, I’d be somewhat surprised if Bourn is a really good leadoff hitter beyond the first year or two of his next contract. Most of his value is going to come from him being a plus defender in center field.
What is a “legitimate lead-off hitter”? As long as a guy can get on base well, he’s a legitimate leadoff hitter, contrary to what tradition tells you about speed being the primary thing to look for in a leadoff hitter.
Plus, it’s much more important to get good hitters than to obsess over whether they fit into particular spots in the order, since batting order is secondary to having quality batters in the order.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
10:58 am
JRW, I’m fine with signing him for more than 1-2 years. As Efrim says, the price needs to be right because after that they are probably going to be paying for a glove-first, mediocre-at-best offensive player.
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
11:00 am
It’s simple Scott Boras will be the reason the Braves don’t sign Bourn to a long contract.
He didn’t seem to get between the Braves and Lowe or the Angels and Weaver.
I’m not a huge fan of the impact Boras has had on the game, but it isn’t entirely all his fault. The players too share the “blame.” If one of his players wants to play for a particular team, he’ll work to get that done. If the player merely wants highest value, he’ll work to get that done. And he usually advises to do the latter. But it doesn’t mean it’s impossible to sign one of his players.
raleighbravefan
August 30th, 2011
11:01 am
JRW – Boras will probably advise Bourn to test FA market…however, “not let him”? Boras works for Bourn, not the other way around.
Jared Weaver told Boras he wanted to stay with Angels. They did an extension, without going to free agency, and gave a significant “home-town discount” to get it done.
Boras plays hardball to get the best deal for his clients (as he should)…but the Boras phobia around here is just plain irrational.
JRW