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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
1,264 comments Add your comment
Anders
August 29th, 2011
4:38 pm
Efrim- I hear ya but you know what? Every June I look at Leylands team and they’re on life support. By August they’re almost always in it. That doesn’t happen by accident. I didn’t appreciate him enough in his earlier years but now, I’d take him over King Torre every time.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
4:38 pm
Anders, you don’t have to leave long for opinions to change about a player. It changes in between at bats
1st AB-struck out…send him to the minors, etc
2 AB-homerun-sign him to a 10 year contract the guy is a future hall of famer
With Heyward I have heard conversations about hall of fame and sending him to AAA
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
4:38 pm
“The Willie Harris, Jose Constanza, Jaret Wrights of the world don’t excite me as much.”
You know what I like about these guys? I like how they come up, do well for the team, and then get siphoned off by some other team and fall apart.
For instance, Jaret Wright came to the Braves after a career of 87 ERA+. He succeeds with the Braves (134 ERA+) and is immediately pulled away with a big contract from the Yankees and subsequently stinks it up again (88 ERA+).
I really enjoy watching that. And I don’t apologize for it.
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
4:39 pm
NickB,
Good stuff all day today, man.
Re: your 4:32, I think Prado trying to hit for more power. I don’t think he’s more aggressive in approach, or with his pitch selection, but he’s taking a big, pull hack a lot more often than he did as he won the job. I’d like to see him go back to the doubles machine he was. Remember all those balls he used to flip over the 1B? He’d guess away, and get the barrel on a pitch six inches off the plate, and end up on second. Haven’t seen that lately…
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:39 pm
didnt work well enough for the 2010 braves. i mean, it did because we won 91 games, but a little slugging would have gone a long way. (like this year)\
Scored 4.55 runs per game last year. Scoring 4.13 runs per game this year……We’re 12th in the league in on base percentage this year. We hit .258/.339/.401 last year. Hitting .246/.311/.394 this year.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
4:40 pm
Anders, those who compare young players like Heyward to Mantle are misguided. Those who don’t think the comparisons of Heyward at the plate this season to Prado at the plate this season are just as misguided. The former group of misguided people just don’t understand the odds of any player playing like Mickey Mantle are pretty long. The latter group just overrates batting average’s usefulness and doesn’t understand the difference between just looking at performance and judging a player on whether his performance matches his hype and expectations. It’s pretty obvious with just a basic knowledge of baseball that Heyward and Prado have been virtually equal at the plate this season.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
4:40 pm
So much so that political blogs have banned the discussion of Jason Heyward on them.
Even penguin blogs have banned it. It’s a hard world.
(”Happy Feet”, the emperor penguin who showed up in New Zealand, a mere 1800 miles from home, is now well enough to be transported back to Antarctica. But he first had to promise not to discuss Jason Heyward.)
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
4:41 pm
My eyes tell me Heyward is an above average left fielder but not great. I bet the stats tell a similar story
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
4:41 pm
right fielder…my eyes aren’t so good
noliee
August 29th, 2011
4:41 pm
he’s gone from .822 to .809 to .722. now, his bABIP is down from his norm of around .330 (down to .275) so he may just be having an unlucky season…NickB
the 822 to 809 is nothing, to all intent and purposes statistically the same. so it’s just really this year and even there the league average is down quite a bit as shown be his numbers still being league average @ 100 OPS+.
sure if it continues next season it might get worrisome, but right now it is nothing but a poor year which every player in baseball has several times in their careers
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:42 pm
“sub-optimal”, Efrim. You got your “optimal” and your “sub-optimal”.
Ah, I see now.
Frankie Wren
August 29th, 2011
4:42 pm
To heck with Georgia and J Hey(this year), Berkman passed waivers. How bout putting the Puma in right field and get to the Series.
flange1
August 29th, 2011
4:43 pm
BAS<
I was thinking the same thing as your 4:39.
Prado seems too pull happy and trying to jerk the ball out.
Not going with the pitch like he did a couple years back.
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
4:43 pm
LOL, scoots. Nice.
JRW
August 29th, 2011
4:43 pm
How did Mickey Mantle ever get in the same sentence with Jason Heyward. That’s just wrong.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:43 pm
I’m not worried one bit about Prado’s down year. I think he’s been unlucky. Good player, and like I’ve said 600 times – lock. him. up. Contractual control for him.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
4:43 pm
Shaun- I mentioned Mantle as a comedic point of reference not as a statement of fact. Sorry if I misguided on you on this. {:
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
4:44 pm
Brava, all I can say is that people aren’t good at observing. People observed that the earth was flat once. But you go ahead and rely on your superb observation skills alone.
TennesseePaul, unless someone is a McCann stalker and knows exactly what he’s doing or not doing to stay in shape, I’m not sure there is any reason to believe he’s never been in shape, as phil asserted. I could see if maybe his performance was awful or something, maybe having some reason to doubt he’s ever been in shape.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
4:44 pm
efrim, point taken. i loved all the baserunners last year, by the way. i miss that.
JFP
August 29th, 2011
4:44 pm
Shaun, I am a huge fan of Heyward. He has a tremendous amount of potential, both mental and physical. He is going to be a great player, but even great players struggle. The Braves have handled his situation quite well. They gave him all of the opportunity to come out of it on his own, and once they realized that it could affect the playoff picture, they made adjustments. And most guys would not have held up as well as he has. But I think he sees the big picture and it’s just another good sign of his maturity.
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
4:44 pm
Those who don’t think the comparisons of Heyward … to Prado … this season are just as misguided.
Misguided because they don’t think.
Hillbilly
August 29th, 2011
4:44 pm
That’s not to be confused with an Optimal Sub, now. Easily confusable.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
4:45 pm
This weekend in sports was awful. Watched a miserable braves game on friday and all that was left was preseason football and little league baseball. I’m not used to a break like this
Brava
August 29th, 2011
4:46 pm
My eyes tell me Heyward is an above average left fielder but not great.
Really? I’ve never seen him play LF.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:46 pm
I really enjoy watching that. And I don’t apologize for it.
This made me laugh.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
4:46 pm
But for the record – when the Braves fans and media annointed him as “J Hey” well, the inference there is kind of hard to miss. so….
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:46 pm
efrim, point taken. i loved all the baserunners last year, by the way. i miss that.
Bases were loaded and so was I.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
4:47 pm
Bottom of another fifth.
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
4:47 pm
McCann is our Piazza. WE have to have him in there because of his stick. He isn’t there for his defense. In fact, this year I’ve noticed he doesn’t even slide his body over to block a pitch in the dirt – just his glove. Sometimes he gets it, sometimes not.
But we need his bat very badly. Third base (in the future) is out of the question. And no way Freeman is uprooted. I suppose he remains behind the dish until….. well, you know.
It’s hard to say that about Brian, but I think it is the truth.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
4:48 pm
a New Yawk fan talking about hype on other teams.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:49 pm
Anders, I really like Lucas Duda. Even if he is just a platoon player next year. I like him. They need pitching, although they finally have put together a minor league system with some potential – Harvey, Wheeler, Famillia, Mejia – once he gets back. 2013, man – that’s when it starts to get fun for the fans again. Just gotta keep Reyes. He is the key. Alderson is the man. Love that guy.
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
4:49 pm
Bash away guys. Catch you later.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
4:49 pm
Brava
If there’s one thing that life has taught us, it’s that we have a selective memory when it comes to perception of a players ability. We tend to forget the routine (or great ) plays that don’t involve diving or a great throw to the plate . Most of what Andruw (according to the fancy defensive stats) the 2nd greatest defender of ALL TIME (behind brooks Robinson) is that he made catches at a trot that most other players would’ve had to dive for or not get to at all. Heyward is an above average RF’er. He gets to many balls that other OF’ers would’ve caught on a hop. He’s also smart enough not to dive at those inbetweeners at the risk of it getting by him and allowing a “potential” spectacular play turn into a double or a triple. He’s young, sometimes he takes bad routes, but his great speed and athletic ability usually allow him to make the play anyway. Prado, is doing an average job at a traditionally easier position to play, against a pool of other players who are usually bad fielders. ( LF is usually home to sloths who are blocked from playing first). I watch all the games too and I see a good fielder out there in RF.
JFP
August 29th, 2011
4:49 pm
Bases were loaded and so was I.
That was a good one.
Brava
August 29th, 2011
4:50 pm
Brava, all I can say is that people aren’t good at observing. People observed that the earth was flat once. But you go ahead and rely on your superb observation skills alone.
Well, Shaun, I think I have above average observation skills, most career soldiers do. But who knows, maybe what I see isn’t real. Guess I’ll just keep watching and hallucinating, because I get great pleasure from it.
RC
August 29th, 2011
4:51 pm
Bottom of another fifth. – ncscoots
Reminds me of my favorite baseball related commercial that played on the Rockies radio affliates this season:
“It’s the bottom of the fifth, and if you’re at the bottom of your fifth, come on down to Applejack Liqour….”
Anders
August 29th, 2011
4:51 pm
He has a tremendous amount of potential, both mental and physical.(JFP)
Mental? How exactly have you assessed this? He knows to make a left when he reaches the next base? He reports to the correct position on the field consistently? He hasn’t batted out of order?
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
4:51 pm
timthebrave, actually the stats have Heyward saving the second-most runs on the team behind Alex Gonzalez. But you can’t pay attention to stats around here unless they confirm your biases or unless they were on the back of baseball cards when you were little.
You shouldn’t look at what the stats are measuring. You should only look at the leader boards of particular stats and if the players are there that you think should be there, that’s how you determine if the stat is valid.
For instance, you don’t start with the fact that on-base percentage measure how many times a player gets on base and avoids outs. You look at the on-base percentage leader board. If a player is up there that you don’t think should be, you disregard that stat. That’s the way it works around here.
RC
August 29th, 2011
4:51 pm
Bases were loaded and so was I.
That was a good one.
Once remember Skip saying, “The bases are loaded, and I bet Dusty (Baker) wishes he was too!”
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:51 pm
Keep seeing ‘Moneyball’ banners on ESPN.com. Can’t believe Jonah Hill is playing the part of Paul Depodesta, or at least the guy that is playing what role Depo had.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
4:53 pm
My problems with Heyward have nothing to do with his fielding or attitude. He just isn’t hitting for sh**
Brava
August 29th, 2011
4:53 pm
Sorry, NickB, but I watch a lot of RF from other teams, as well as the Braves, and Heyward looks to be about average to me.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
4:54 pm
I can’t believe there is 29 regular season games left and only a weeks worth of minor league baseball left. This is crazy. Soon, the playoffs, hotstove season, etc. Moves pretty fast.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
4:55 pm
Shaun , as far as defense here is what my eyes tell me
1. Gonzalez
2. Freeman
3. Bourn
4. Heyward
Hillbilly
August 29th, 2011
4:55 pm
There’s a fine line between “Wish You Were Here” and “Wish You Were Her.”
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
4:55 pm
unless someone is a McCann stalker and knows exactly what he’s doing or not doing to stay in shape…
This is a fallacy. You’ve set an unattainable level of burden of proof rendering your opinion just as irrelevant as a fan who asserts McCann is not “in shape.”
I’m not sure there is any reason to believe he’s never been in shape…I could see if maybe his performance was awful or something…
This too is fallacious as it would assume that players who produce are inherently “in shape.” There are many players in baseball history who produces tremendous results while still falling outside the bounds of the term “in shape.”
Skeezix
August 29th, 2011
4:55 pm
No game again tonight. Last game, shutout and embarrassed by the Mets. Tommy once was a Met. Tommy ‘Gun’ Hanson’s torn his rotator cuff. Brian’s arm is getting weaker. Jason still struggling. Checking out now guys, am descending into despair……. going to visit with Jack Daniels.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
4:56 pm
My problems with Heyward have nothing to do with his fielding or attitude. He just isn’t hitting for sh**
tim goes nutshell, LOL. That nimrod Perry throws our line-drive percentage, infield-fly percentage, all to a bleepin decimal point, to detail Heyward’s troubles. timthebrave nails it in six words: “He just isn’t hitting for sh**”.
Props to tim!
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
4:57 pm
Mental? How exactly have you assessed this?
Really Anders? Why, he made it to the majors, of course.
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
4:57 pm
There are many players in baseball history who produces tremendous results while still falling outside the bounds of the term “in shape.”
(Aunt) Babe Ruth perhaps?
Killing me Smalls.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
4:57 pm
He just isn’t hitting for sh** tim
even that is kinda misleading. most folks are basing that on batting average alone. his OPS is better though still disappointing
Anders
August 29th, 2011
4:58 pm
Efrim- I’d offer Reyes 5 years at $85 mil. You know he’ll be hurt for at least 1 years worth of that. That puts him at $21 mil per for time played. If he plays for 4 1/2 of those years he gets a 5th year at $25 mil. Take it or leave it. I mean it. I don’t believe he can keep his legs healthy enough. It’s not the Mets fault the Nats gave stupid money to Werth and the Red Sox paid Crawford what they did. I wouldn’t even attempt to match those deals. Who would for Reyes? The Phillies? Possible but I’m not so sure. The Giants? Maybe.
Problem is that Reyes tends to pout and I think he will if the Mets start by lowballing him and he’ll walk because of it. That’s his nature. So be it.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
4:58 pm
Although I have seen Heyward misplay more balls than Prado I think he gets to a lot more balls that Prado wouldn’t have a chance at getting
Claudio
August 29th, 2011
4:59 pm
The Braves need to extend Bourn, he makes the offense go. However, I wouldn’t go more than 4 years, even if it takes a higher annual salary (i.e. I would do a 4/36 deal, but not a 5/40 one). His game relies on his legs, and if they start to betray him….5 years is a very long period of time, and a 28 yo speedster is a lot different than a 33 yo former speedster
NickB
August 29th, 2011
4:59 pm
As far as Mac is concerned, I’m of the opinion that his throwing out base runners lies mostly at the foot of his pitching staff. Hanson is terrible at holding runners, JJ isn’t much better. Hudson and Lowe are because they want those grounders to turn into double plays (yet Hudson has been caught by Ross most of the year). I think it’s a little unfair to just lay it all at Mac’s feet… (last year he threw out 30% of base stealers. This year it’s down to 20%)
Whomever keeps saying Ross should be our number one catcher hasn’t looked at his numbers . He gets overexposed as a starter and his numbers really dwindle. He’s best used in 200 PA’s a year getting his one start a week.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
4:59 pm
Prince Fielder is a really good player but the only shape he is in is round
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
5:00 pm
Brava, nobody has great observation skills. Our eyes and our brains fool us more often than we like to admit.
RC
August 29th, 2011
5:00 pm
Shaun , as far as defense here is what my eyes tell me
1. Gonzalez
2. Freeman
3. Bourn
4. Heyward – timthebrave
I would agree with these rankings. One of the annoying things about UZR and other defensive metrics is that none of them do a very good job of:
A) Accounting for the different shapes of outfields. Boston LFers always end up with a terrible range factor, because there isn’t that much ground to make plays on there, while SD outfielders always have awesome zone rankings.
B) Accounting for 1b defense. Since the metric simply takes into account balls that are fielded by the 1b, there is no measure of how many potential errors he is able to save on bad throws from the other infielders. This is one of the reasons that Freeman is rated as one of the worst defenders in the majors by most metrics. They simply aren’t calibrated to accurately measure 1b defense.
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
5:01 pm
Problem is that Reyes tends to pout and I think he will if the Mets start by lowballing him and he’ll walk because of it. That’s his nature. So be it.
He’s an aging veteran. The Giants will sign him to a crippling contract. For Sabean, those deals are a hoot.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
5:01 pm
Jimmy In fact, this year I’ve noticed he doesn’t even slide his body over to block a pitch in the dirt – just his glove.
Not to be a smart[butt], but you must not watch many games, then.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
5:02 pm
TennesseePaul, agreed. People who don’t think the Heyward-Prado offensive comparisons so far this season are valid simply don’t think.
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
5:02 pm
What are the chances Freddie Freeman wins a gold glove this year?
Surely it isn’t Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, or that fat guy for the Brewers…Princess something…
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:02 pm
good points RC, especially the 1st base one
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
5:03 pm
NickB He gets overexposed as a starter and his numbers really dwindle.
Yeah, didn’t these folks pay attention while BMac was on the DL? GYAH, don’t tell me all that suffering was for naught!!…
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
5:03 pm
‘Nobody has great observation skills’
Bull.
And, the defensive stats routinely used here rely on precisely those skills.
Brava
August 29th, 2011
5:04 pm
Yeah, OK, Shaun, whatever you say.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:04 pm
why wouldn’t it be Pujols?
RC
August 29th, 2011
5:04 pm
Brava, nobody has great observation skills. Our eyes and our brains fool us more often than we like to admit.
I find this statement to simply be inaccurate. It’s certainly possible that if someone depends ENTIRELY on their eyes to judge a player they will make mistakes, but that’s why it’s important to compare visual scouting with numbers. By the same token, simply trusting the numbers is a losing strategy as well, without questioning the methods that go into developing the numbers. I keep coming back to Freeman, but he’s a great example of how this can be the case. The numbers say he’s awful at 1b, my eyes say he’s fantastic. After reviewing the different inputs that go into each evaluation, I’ve determined that the numbers simply don’t utilize as much information as is available to the human eye, taking into account fielding throws from other players.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
5:04 pm
I’m actually interested to see what happens to Jose Reyes. But I don’t what that showboating, oft injured malcontent on the Braves.
So who gets him? The Yankees are out, so that leaves the Cards, Red Sox maybe…. ? i dunno, IMO, it looks like most of the really heavy hitting payroll teams have a SS already. (Jeter, Ramirez,Starlin Castro, Andrus). I think that the Mets may lowball him, and it’s the best off he gets.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:04 pm
What are the chances Freddie Freeman wins a gold glove this year? (MFin04)
They certainly increased the day Ike Davis collided with David Wright. That Ike can pick it.
Brava
August 29th, 2011
5:06 pm
Well put, RC.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
5:06 pm
How is there any possible way to say Freeman has been awful at 1B?? That doesn’t even make sense…what “numbers”…?
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
5:07 pm
Ike Davis collided with Not wRight? How’d that happen? Was Davis playing a different position…?
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
5:07 pm
Ike Davis? Let me go out on a limb and say Ike Davis won’t win a gold glove at any position ever.
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
5:08 pm
Range, McFann.
When people say a guy’s defense is poor, it’s either errors or range. He is great around the bag, and has a great arm, but he doesn’t get to as many balls as an elite defensive first baseman.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:09 pm
the defensive stats routinely used here rely on precisely those skills…BAS
nah. the defensive metrics are based on study with well defined parameters. observation is a one time look at most plays.
Eye-witness reports are notoriously unreliable.
and too, what we see is influenced greatly by what we want or expect to see. perceptual bias
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
5:09 pm
Soon, the playoffs, hotstove season, etc. Moves pretty fast.
Until the offseason, when time regresses to the mean. Tick. Forever. Tock.
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
5:09 pm
People who don’t think the Heyward-Prado offensive comparisons so far this season are valid
Ahhhh “are valid.” Initially it was simply limited to, in summary, “people who don’t think the comparisons of Heyward and Prado are misguided”
Now “validity” comes into play suggesting that there is no room for descent or disagreement of conclusions based on the comparisons. I disagree with such a notion. People can wisely review the facts of the entire situation and come to a different coherent and logical opinion. Only a truly close-minded individual would fail to see this.
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
5:09 pm
“I’ve determined that the numbers simply don’t utilize as much information as is available to the human eye, taking into account fielding throws from other players.”
Freeman never seems to drop anything not to mention the kid can stretch.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
5:10 pm
RC, right. That’s my point. People often disregard stats because of what they see. But you need to rely on both. And it goes hand-in-hand with disregarding a stat because it doesn’t get you the results you like. Judge the stats on what it’s measuring and it’s usefulness in measuring what you want it to measure, not whether or not a stat tells you that a particular player is good or bad.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
5:10 pm
Bay Area Steve—
Oh! I getcha, thanks! Still, I like his D a lot…but what do I know about D, right…?
NickB
August 29th, 2011
5:10 pm
@ RC I agree, you must use a combo of observation and numbers to judge defense.
HOWEVER, first base is a bad place to use as an example. The defensive numbers like UZR and RF for 1b are lacking due that they are all about range. The problem with this is that it does’t really take into account runs saved by digging balls and preventing errors by other players. This is something Freeman excels at. Plus, one thing all the defensive metric maestros admit, is that the major defensive stats tend to not work very well for catchers and 1b. The number of plays they make every game is so much greater than the other positions it skews things (plus the nature of receiving the ball so much rather than catching and throwing it are inherently different) So though these range related stats aren’t accurate for say FF. They do show that as a big guy, he doesn’t have much range at 1b. But some of the runs prevented stats say that he’s an elite fielder there…. So, it’s a matter of which one you trust. Hence the eyeball test.
But when it comes to the OF, UZR and +/- work pretty well and they both say Heyward is a top ten RF’er
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:11 pm
I’m actually interested to see what happens to Jose Reyes. But I don’t what that showboating, oft injured malcontent on the Braves. (NickB)
Hey Nick, you should have been here back in the days when “The Choker” Billy Wagner was a Met. Folks on here hated him even more. Then poof! Bobby and Wren pay him a visit up at his Virginia farm with hat in hand, they give him a tomahawk for his chest and presto he’s a great guy, perfect clubhouse teammate who Braves fans always had the utmost respect for. Good old “Wags”. The lesson here? Go ahead and crap all over the enemy. Nobody remembers.
Well almost nobody. {:
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:11 pm
Mets will re-sign Reyes. In the competitive stew that is the back page they can hardly afford not to
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
5:11 pm
CB,
You give me way too much credit. I think we could both use some guidance from Soph.
BTW – where is Ease? Havent seen him around much these days. Usually it doesnt take much to flush him out.
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
5:12 pm
Go ahead and crap all over the enemy. Nobody remembers.
Except for professional pot-stirrers.
RC
August 29th, 2011
5:13 pm
Range, McFann.
When people say a guy’s defense is poor, it’s either errors or range. He is great around the bag, and has a great arm, but he doesn’t get to as many balls as an elite defensive first baseman.
But doesn’t positioning come into play with range as well? It seems that a really good advance scout or bench coach could have just as much impact on range factor as the player himself. If one team has a great coach that tells a player to move 2 steps to the left, while another team’s coach doesn’t do this in the exact same situation, why should the first player receive credit for making a play due to good positioning by his coach?
Range factor is great, and it can tell you a lot about a player and a team. But it’s really annoying when people try to use it as a definitive measure of a player’s defensive ability, since there are so many variables that are not considered by the numbers.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:14 pm
Ike Davis? Let me go out on a limb and say Ike Davis won’t win a gold glove at any position ever (MFin04)
Curious line in the sand. But ok.
RC
August 29th, 2011
5:15 pm
One more example of why range factor is not a great measure:
A few years ago it was noticed that A-Rod had a poor range factor on balls hit to his right (between him and the foul line). After doing some research, a few writers developed the reasonable hypothesis that he wasn’t reaching as many balls to the right because he was cheating toward SS, trying to help cover up for Derek Jeter’s poor range at SS. So while he helped the team as a whole, his individual numbers showed a “decline” in defense.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
5:15 pm
TennesseePaul, it’s pretty difficult to come to the conclusion that Prado has been a lot better at the plate than Heyward this season, if you are aware of everything beyond batting average.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:16 pm
exactly RC you have nailed the biggest problem with defensive metrics. They are too range-centric. It might be the most important aspect but it is not the only aspect especially at catcher and 1st
CB
August 29th, 2011
5:17 pm
Soph would definitely be wise counsel,SB. Ease is hanging around somewhere,he gets kind of quiet when he is thinking hard.
Brava
August 29th, 2011
5:18 pm
But it’s really annoying when people try to use it as a definitive measure of a player’s defensive ability, since there are so many variables that are not considered by the numbers.
Amen.
RC
August 29th, 2011
5:18 pm
Anders,
Did people on the blog really rip Billy Wagner that much? I don’t remember that, but then again it could just be that it was coming from some of the posters who I tended to ignore on a regular basis, precisely for comments like that.
I do remember a lot of people ripping Beltran when the big riff happened between him and Wagner in the Mets clubhouse over staying around to speak to the media.
noliee
August 29th, 2011
5:18 pm
After doing some research, a few writers developed the reasonable hypothesis that he wasn’t reaching as many balls to the right because he was cheating toward SS, trying to help cover up for Derek Jeter’s poor range at SS. So while he helped the team as a whole, his individual numbers showed a “decline” in defense….RC
but wouldn’t that have increased his range factor to his left and evened out? I’m not sold on that hypothesis
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:19 pm
Mets will re-sign Reyes. In the competitive stew that is the back page they can hardly afford not to
(noliee)
Before this second leg injury you might be right. But now having missed all these games again- the luster of his season is gone. He’s great when he plays. They will not go to extraordinary means to keep him. They can not afford that risk and Met fans on the whole honestly don’t want them too. Most have bought into Aldersons building from within and concentration on pitching. If Reyes wants to be part of it at a fair and reasonable deal ok. If not, best of luck to you (well not really).
NickB
August 29th, 2011
5:19 pm
@ RC
Oh i totally agree, defensive metrics are hardly perfect. But one thing that must be considered is that they are the same for everybody. IF you have 10 people and the numbers show one sticks out (either good or bad) it generally means they are significantly better or worse than their peers. If they are all fairly close then you know that it doesn’t measure enough. Defensive metrics are kinda the second one. A few people really stick out. But most everyone is fairly close together.
Think, one day in the future the ball will be tracked and the field will be broken down into a computer scanned grid that directly tracks in real time. Both before the play and after, resulting in a near perfect defensive stat. When that happens, most of you will be praying for Shaun and his talk of UZR ! ;-p
Anders
August 29th, 2011
5:21 pm
RC- Every post and I mean every post about Wagner had the word choker in it. Led by the great Lew himself. Most on here hated wagner for his mouth etc.. It was chronic.
Coach (2011 Fredi G. a go!)
August 29th, 2011
5:23 pm
Brooks Robinson defensive WAR stats:
Career 27.3 which is 1st all time. Of course….all the stat heads like Shaun will never figure in the five to six hundred runs Robinson saved over the course of his 16 gold glove, 23 year Hall of Fame career
Yea, that’s five to six hundred more RBI saved than any other third baseman…..ever.
p.s. I’ll never be accused of underrating a players defensive metrics.
ga gator
August 29th, 2011
5:23 pm
Yes sign him AND Constanza; their speed on the bases is what has transformed this lineup. Speed disrups both pitching and defense.