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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
1,264 comments Add your comment
MikeInFl
August 29th, 2011
2:33 pm
No kidding?!!! can somebody expound on these numbers for me? I’m a little blown away…
Well, exactly half of it (8 steals, 5 caught) is directly attributed to Bourn. Now, I do believe he’s a better base-stealer than that, but he hasn’t been very good in his brief time in Atlanta.
phil
August 29th, 2011
2:34 pm
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
2:13 pm
phil, saying something like “whatever this WAR crap is” is a strong indication that you don’t know enough about it to have an intelligent discussion about whether and how it’s useful.
****************
You’re exactly right. And I don’t want to know. It doesn’t do one thing to help me make a living.
RC
August 29th, 2011
2:34 pm
While I do think WAR is a valuable method of measuring player value, I do have issues with the defensive adjustments it makes. In my opinion WAR places way too much weight on his defensive metrics, which are somewhat suspect to begin with (pretty sure WAR has Freeman as a terrible defensive 1b, which I simply don’t find to be true).
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
2:35 pm
Ok, I’ll go with that, so how does a speedy, leadoff CF like Bourn compare to the rest of his peers?
Don’t know. That would involve actually looking stuff up, LOL.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
2:36 pm
I think swing and miss guys can be overrated… Jurrjens has the ability to pitch out of jams as well as Hudson. They may not strike guys out, but they get guys out when they need to.
Sh!t happens when the ball is in play. Eliminate that factor as much as possible and we have less margin for error.
phil
August 29th, 2011
2:37 pm
Interesting that you bring up McLouth and Schafer. Those guys weren’t exactly slow, which is a good indication that it’s not speed that changed the Braves’ offense. It has much more to do with having a leadoff hitter than can get on and the rest of the team hitting better than they did early on.
SHAUN
*******************
I actually agree for once.
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
2:37 pm
And right now Lowe in that position scares me.
The alignment of the rotation coming out of this “break” has me worried for that very reason. Currently, I’d have to weigh Minor vs Lowe for the 4th spot in the rotation.
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:38 pm
Shaun
if i look at what two guys have done over the course of the season without looking at their avg., hell, they’re pretty much all the same.
Look at them both without really looking at them, they can both be white.
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
2:38 pm
Man, this stretch of no Braves baseball has serious suction. I hope it help the Braves and not hinder them. Seems like the all-star break again.
DS1
August 29th, 2011
2:39 pm
125 mil for 5 years……. do it
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
2:39 pm
Murph, no one said Heyward’s a Gold Glover. He’s just better in right than Prado is in left and he’s probably better in right than Prado is at third or second. But I agree that his versatility adds value in ways that Heyward can’t because Heyward can basically just play in the outfield.
Bruno Brigadoon, I think the perception that Prado has been better than Heyward at the plate comes from over-reliance on batting average and the hype and expectations surrounding Heyward.
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
2:40 pm
Currently, I’d have to weigh Minor vs Lowe for the 4th spot in the rotation.
Most of us would – but Fredi and team as a whole might defer to his “experienced veteran” factor a lot more in spite of whatever he does in September.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
2:41 pm
I think the perception that Prado has been better than Heyward at the plate comes from over-reliance on batting average and the hype and expectations surrounding Heyward.
You just say the same stuff over and over. I agree with most of it, but it’s your delivery.
Truck Drivin Man
August 29th, 2011
2:42 pm
What the? Here comes Truck Drivin Man.
DS1
August 29th, 2011
2:42 pm
speed kills…….. the payroll budget
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
2:43 pm
in spite of whatever he does in September.
September is the issue. If Lowe pulls it together and has a strong month, ride him into the playoffs. If not, I don’t think anything can be expected of him in October either in the rotation, or the pen.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
2:43 pm
Was Hanson suppose to meet with Andrews today?
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:44 pm
SHAUN
*******************
I actually agree for once.
I’ll agree with that argument too. Bourn and Constanzo are valuable because they get on base. Don’t forget though, that their speed actually helps their OBP a lot more than McC and Schaf. Their speed shouldn’t be discounted.
McClouth was more of a good base stealer than a fast runner. Even when he was a good hitter (with the pirates), he wasn’t the kind of guy who you saw disrupting defenses and causing errors and bunting on and having a lot of infeild hits.
raleighbravefan
August 29th, 2011
2:44 pm
I will guarantee that Scott Boras will come up with a value that quantifies the worth of defense, stolen bases, and hitting affectively leadoff.
raleighbravefan
August 29th, 2011
2:45 pm
$125M for 5 years is crazy.
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
2:45 pm
Starting tomorrow, we have 17 games in 16 days….but we do have two days off between now and the end. As mentioned before, the Phils have none.
salary considerations
August 29th, 2011
2:45 pm
The Braves will free up $7.3 million this year from KK, $15million on Lowe after 2012, but Chipper can get up to $13 million again in 2013 based on appearances in 2011 and/or 2012. Braves have a $9 million club option on Hudson in 2013, and McCann will also be a FA in 2013. Plus some of the younger players and pitchers will add millions due to arbitration.
I say try to sign him before he becomes a FA.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
2:46 pm
You’re exactly right. And I don’t want to know.
phil, I don’t believe Shaun will ever be able to parse out the components of “blissfully ignorant”.
Not in his DNA, I imagine.
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
2:48 pm
Hamels vs. Bailey tonight on ESPN – 7:10
Mark in Guyton
August 29th, 2011
2:49 pm
DOB, Longtime follower of the blog. Always read your articles and stories and peruse a great number of the comments of your blogging followers. Usually find them interesting, sometimes cogent. But, anyway, I wanted to thank you for introducing me to the music of James McMurtry. I’ve seen him come up so often as your closing songwriter. Finally downloaded a couple of his albums and will get the rest when I digest these. What a lyricist; the man has lived a while. I didn’t realize he is Larry McMurtry’s son. Again thanks for your good work and your music tips.
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:49 pm
SHAUN
is Alex Gonzalez comparable to Prado too?
flange1
August 29th, 2011
2:50 pm
Isn’t Cole Hamels on the DL?
smyrnabob
August 29th, 2011
2:50 pm
Remember that the teams can pull up starters from minors after Sept 1. Lets give Teheran and Delgado can do now
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
2:50 pm
salary considerations McCann will also be a FA in 2013
No, he won’t—Frank Wren will extend him before we get that far if he knows what’s good for him!
Truck Drivin Man
August 29th, 2011
2:50 pm
Try to catch the Braves on radio and hear they ain’t playing cause they let a little rain and wind scare them and that they need to rest up. Bunch of pansies…play baseball for a living, then they say they need days off to rest. How about following truck drivin man around when he loads, hauls, and then unloads heavy equipment–aching back and all. No bad storm sent truck drivin man into hiding. I headed west and just got back from Texas with a load.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
2:50 pm
i think beachy has the makings of a very good postseason pitcher. im glad we have him, and though some here think its no bog deal, the possibility of not having hanson to pitch in a postseason series makes me uncomfy.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
2:52 pm
While I do think WAR is a valuable method of measuring player value, I do have issues with the defensive adjustments it makes.
And I think most folks would tend to agree with that, in principle if not depth of effect. Any of the stats dependent on the current state of defensive metrics should be given a little wobble factor.
That’s why I chuckle a little at guys who will analyze two players and use a tenth of a WAR to definitively cite one over the other.
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:52 pm
If you stop paying attention to the frequency at which one person posts stupid sh$% (which is overemphasized anyway), then that person is really just as intelligent as the next guy.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
2:52 pm
if i look at what two guys have done over the course of the season without looking at their avg., hell, they’re pretty much all the same.
Bruno Brigadoon, huh? There’s more to baseball offense than batting average…much more.
Larry30
August 29th, 2011
2:54 pm
The most difficult piece of information for the braves to get around in this discussion is the contract they negotiated for McLouth. That contract called for an option of $10.65 million for 2012. Admittedly, they won’t pick up the option deciding instead to pay him $1.25 million to just go away, but don’t think for a moment that boras will ignore that figure. Bourn is worth considerably more than McLouth. Boras will also know that mclouth’s, lowe’s, and kawakami’s money (about $30 million annually) will be off the books by 2012. I hope they can sign him. Center field and leadoff have been in a vacuum for 6 years.
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
2:54 pm
flange1 – Hamels returns tonight.
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:54 pm
LOL
Truck Drivin Man just came back with a load…
cabravesfan
August 29th, 2011
2:55 pm
Check out Jon Heyman’s picks for MVP & ROY…especially #8 on the NL MVP list…
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/jon_heyman/08/29/award.leaders/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_wr_a3
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
2:55 pm
“He’s just better in right than Prado is in left”
Disagree. Prado has a better arm and doesn’t misplay as many balls. Jason does have the added flair for the dramatic. But saying Jason is a better RF than Prado is a LF is ridiculous. Prado is probably one of the best LFers in the game. There just aren’t that many great LFers.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
2:55 pm
Bruno Brigadoon, speed helps players get on base but there are a lot of fast players in history with horrible on-base percentages. So, again, it’s more than speed.
is Alex Gonzalez comparable to Prado too?
No.
CrαZy
August 29th, 2011
2:59 pm
I do think Bourn should be resigned….. I don’t care how long or what the cost…..It’s not my money. At the end of the day I really don’t care what the payroll is or how many bad contracts we have or how many good contracts we have all I care about is one thing…are we good enough to win? If we win great the FO and management are doing a good job either by being responsible or by throwing enough money at problems until they’re fixed. Thats all on the owner. Why should I worry how he spends his money?
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:59 pm
Bruno Brigadoon, speed helps players get on base but there are a lot of fast players in history with horrible on-base percentages. So, again, it’s more than speed.
exactly, like Schafer. But on the other hand, there are players with good OBP that wouldn’t have nearly the OBP if it wasn’t for speed.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
3:00 pm
cabravesfan—
Nice!!
DAP
August 29th, 2011
3:00 pm
the R in WAR is a myth that changes constantly.
wayne 125 mil for 5 years……. do it
but dude…ryan freel retired.
Jimmy
August 29th, 2011
3:01 pm
Bruno Brigadoon – I saw that, but didn’t want to engage with the Truck Drivin Man.
I mean, he’s pissed that the Braves aren’t playing, he’s down in his back, he’s just getting in from a long trip to Texas and he brought a load with him.
No, I ain’t messing with him.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
3:02 pm
MFin04, actually there is no evidence that suggest Prado is a better leftfielder than Heyward is a rightfielder. Has nothing to do with flairs for dramatic. I’m not judging the two on web gems or Sportscenter highlights. I’m judging by the actual evidence we have.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
3:03 pm
Why should I worry how he spends his money?
Because, if you don’t, that automatically cuts down blog posts by a third. Just as there are only a few real movie storylines, there are only three real blog subjects: payroll, lineups, and everything else.
flange1
August 29th, 2011
3:03 pm
Thanks Jimmy!
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:04 pm
Efrim- How’d you make out with the hurricane? I got through unscathed. Lickier than many. Hope you did too.
Larry30
August 29th, 2011
3:06 pm
The reason some of us care about how they spend the money is because directly pay for it as fans. The 4 season tickets I purchased here in Atlanta cost a little over $5200 in 1995, they cost a little over $11,000 this year. In ‘91 a world series ticket cost $65, this year $250 each. And to top it off, you have to live with the contracts in baseball until they are done, no cutting players loose like the NFL does.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:07 pm
Just catching up on the Bourn discussion. Is he from the Atlanta area? Has he always wanted to live in Atlanta? Will he sign for a discount just to be in Atlanta? Has he always wanted to play for Cox?
Wait… scratch that last one, that was just from muscle memory. {:
Murph
August 29th, 2011
3:08 pm
McFann, what will you do if the unquestionable happens and the Braves let BMac walk at the end of his deal? And he goes to the Mets?
Will you be a Mets fan or will you be a Braves fan who roots for BMac on Mets? What about the first time he comes to Atlanta wearing that Mets road uni?
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:10 pm
Larry- It’s not baseball’s fault the Braves haven’t been to the World Series since tickets to those games cost $65. Prices have gone up in this millenium.{:
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
3:11 pm
“I’m judging by the actual evidence we have.”
Which numbers/evidence?
raleighbravefan
August 29th, 2011
3:11 pm
Bourn is from Houston, but who wants to play for them?
CrαZy
August 29th, 2011
3:11 pm
that automatically cuts down blog posts by a third
If I could pick the 1/3 to get rid of I’d be fine with that!!
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
3:12 pm
Bruno Brigadoon, but to post a really good on-base, a player needs more than speed. Even if a player owes most of his on-base to speed, he’s not going to be a really good on-base guy unless he possesses some plus skills other than speed. He needs to hit the ball with some degree of authority to get it past major league defenses or he needs to walk at a high rate or both. A player can’t be a plus offensive player by just hitting the ball on the ground and using his legs, not at the major league level.
DAP, the R in WAR isn’t a myth. Replacement Level is theoretical but it’s based on something. It’s not just a completely random guess.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:12 pm
Murph- The Mets ain’t signing McCann. No way, no how. They still sting from dealing with Piazza as their big bat as a catcher. It doesn’t work in the 2nd half of their careers generally.
Now the Yanks may come a calling for him. But they have stupid money and treat it as such.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:14 pm
That said- I’d be proud to have McFann as a fellow fan. She’s one of my favorites on this blog.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
3:14 pm
Still without power, Anders. Hopefully it’ll be back soon. Connecticut Light & Power sucks. Other than that, okay. Could of been a lot worse…..
DAP
August 29th, 2011
3:14 pm
the R in WAR isn’t a myth. Replacement Level is theoretical but it’s based on something. It’s not just a completely random guess.
its not a myth because its a guess, its a myth because it doesnt exist. a replacement level player is a non-existent entity whos skills change at least year to year.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
3:15 pm
Mac is sticking around. Why even discuss the alternative?
CrαZy
August 29th, 2011
3:15 pm
What about the first time he comes to Atlanta wearing that Mets road uni?
I always thought the world would turn upside down the day I saw a Brave favorite wearing a Mets uni….. Then Glavine signed with em!!
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
3:16 pm
Check out Jon Heyman’s picks for MVP & ROY…especially #8 on the NL MVP list…
Wow! I dont agree with his pushing down Freeman so easily for ROY, though.
flange1
August 29th, 2011
3:16 pm
Anders,
What is the current NY talk on the Madoff settlement as it relates to the Mets? Still looking for 1 billion from the Mets folks?
Larry30
August 29th, 2011
3:19 pm
Hey anders……that’s exactly my point. What in the world was the point of your comment? Let’s see if I can simplify it for you: what players are paid effects prices, we pay the increase in prices if we continue to go to the games, prices have gone up since ‘95, I as a fan am paying more. It’s the player’s fault we haven’t been back to a world series since ‘99. They haven’t won enough games.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:19 pm
Efrim agreed on your 3:15. Glad to hear generally you’re ok after the storm. Not having electricity is horrible. I’m glad I didged that one.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
3:20 pm
MFin04, things like Defensive Runs Saved, Revised Zone Rating, Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average, Baseball Info Solutions’ Defensive Runs Saved and Plus/Minus. A lot of data showing Heyward as the better fielder.
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
3:21 pm
what will you do if the unquestionable happens and the Braves let BMac walk at the end of his deal? And he goes to the Mets?
A questionable move is my releasing Alex Avila to waivers after one bad month (in a non-keeper fantasy league). This is not a questionable move – way way worse. Egregious is one word that comes to mind. Why are you giving is a N8 type situation here?
abeeeewright
August 29th, 2011
3:21 pm
raleighbravefan, August 29th, 2011, 10:33 am … “… who would you want to represent you?”
For the name alone, you have to go with Bean Stringfellow.
Add to that his penchant for avoiding unnecessary paperwork, like filing retirement papers, …
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:21 pm
flange 1 – There hasn’t been much said about the Madoff thing off late. I honestly don’t know if that is good or bad? Either way the Mets clearly are going to be somewhat restricted financially. To what degree? I don’t think they even know yet.
Sopheee
August 29th, 2011
3:22 pm
Don’t feel bad, Snot. CB did the same in ours and guess who got him?
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
3:22 pm
DAP, I wouldn’t call that a “myth” but okay. Still doesn’t negate the value of looking at WAR.
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
3:23 pm
abewright @ 3:21 PM
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:24 pm
Larry- What are you paying for electricity today versus ‘95? Are your lights any brighter? You know, in the spirit of simplifying things for each other.
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
3:25 pm
Don’t feel bad, Snot. CB did the same in ours and guess who got him?
You’re a sharp one to pick him up, Soph. He’s been hot this last month.
But I have a track record. Last year, I dropped Bautista after he got stuck at 21 HRs for 3 weeks. I thought his luck had worn out. He went on to hit 35 more to punish me.I’ll never recover from that.
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
3:25 pm
Anders, I’m glad you made it through. Efrim, too. But, I’m starting to seriously worry about Lew’s place. I hope he’s not under water…
Bay Area Steve
August 29th, 2011
3:26 pm
DAP, thanks for the link.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:26 pm
I always thought the world would turn upside down the day I saw a Brave favorite wearing a Mets uni….. Then Glavine signed with em!! (Crazy)
Somehow I don’t remember Glavine as a Met? And people say shock therapy doesn’t work. Phooey!
Sopheee
August 29th, 2011
3:26 pm
Didn’t have much choice, Snot. Lost Molina for a week after he had that meltdown with the ump and I saw Avila was available so wa laaaa.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:27 pm
BAS- Yeah, they got pounded with rain up that way and they’re not built for it or to repair it quickly.
Sopheee
August 29th, 2011
3:27 pm
I left Lew a fb message yesterday after I saw images and video of Vermont yesterday. Hope he’s okay.
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
3:28 pm
But, I’m starting to seriously worry about Lew’s place. I hope he’s not under water…
Arent there a few folks on here with his phone number? Probably they ought to give that a shot.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
3:30 pm
Sign Bourn to a 5 year 43 million dollar deal(12: 7m, 2013-2016: 9m per year)
Sign Prado to a 3 year 20 million dollar deal with a 4th year option(12: 5.5m, 13: 6.5m, 14: 8m, 15: 8m or 1m buyout)
Sign McCann to a 5 year 58.5 million dollar deal(12: 8.5m, 2013-2016: 12.5m per year)
Done. World Series. Look. Out.
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
3:30 pm
Lost Molina for a week after he had that meltdown with the ump and I saw Avila was available so wa laaaa.
Nice. Kinda like when Ease dropped Uggla just a couple of weeks before he turned it on and I made hay!
abeeeewright
August 29th, 2011
3:32 pm
TennesseePaul, August 29th, 2011, 1:59 pm … “WAR is a “logarithm”? … one might say it takes it up an exponential notch.”
Naturally, it does.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
3:32 pm
But, I’m starting to seriously worry about Lew’s place. I hope he’s not under water…
Yeah, Vermont got blasted and I hope he’s okay too. Saw some bad pictures on Facebook as well.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
3:33 pm
I’ve just been hung up on extensions for Prado and McCann. I’ll be pushing it this winter. I’m sure Frank will hear me.
abeeeewright
August 29th, 2011
3:36 pm
ncscoots, August 29th, 2011, 3:03 pm … “…there are only three real blog subjects: payroll, lineups, and everything else.
I wonder how much payroll will be tied up in tomorrow’s line-up.
Ah, well, As long as Gonzalez isn’t hitting second, I’m OK with it.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:37 pm
Efrim- You think Prado would sign that deal? Seems light for the straw who stirs the drink per Hoss -no?
Bourn to be a Brave
August 29th, 2011
3:38 pm
Lock him up long term. At whatever cost. He’s no Juan Pierre. He’s unto himself something special. Bourn’s worth it.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
3:38 pm
I think it’s a fair deal, Anders. Especially based on this years stats and his health history. He hasn’t exactly been an iron man.
DS1
August 29th, 2011
3:39 pm
Braves go on a tear with Schafer hitting first and Gonzo batting second; driving the stat geeks to the brink of insanity….
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
3:39 pm
Sign McCann to a 5 year 58.5 million dollar deal(12: 8.5m, 2013-2016: 12.5m per year)
Too low for Mac. Need to go 15 M per from ‘13 on. That’ll be after a hometown discount.
Anders
August 29th, 2011
3:41 pm
He hasn’t exactly been an iron man (Efrim)
Maybe that’s what Chipper see’s in him? Compadre. Everyone relax- I’m just kidding.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
3:41 pm
Maybe Wren will go extension crazy like O’Dowd was with the Rockies last offseason. Contractual control for everyone.
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
3:42 pm
“Check out Jon Heyman’s picks for MVP & ROY…especially #8 on the NL MVP list…”
Can someone post this? I can’t access the sight…
raleighbravefan
August 29th, 2011
3:42 pm
Andruw was extra special…then he wasn’t. Just saying…
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
3:43 pm
Too low for Mac. Need to go 15 M per from ‘13 on. That’ll be after a hometown discount.
Yeesh. I mirrored the deal V-Mart signed – 4 years and 50 million. I hope they don’t give Mac 15 a year. Not for his age 29-32 year old seasons.
phil
August 29th, 2011
3:44 pm
I love Brian but the guy has never been in shape a single day in his professional life. At some point before too much longer, he will begin to break down, and with FF at first for hopefully the next 18 years, where would we put him? Exactly…..no where to put him.
I wish he would get the fat off and get in tip top shape and stay that way. I don’t think he ever will, or he already would have, but I guess I can keep hoping.
Brian, for the love of all things Atlanta, please put down the Krispy Kremes and get in shape, will ya? I mean EXCELLENT shape. For your good, our good and your bank account’s good.