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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
1,264 comments Add your comment
wreckbuzz
August 29th, 2011
12:18 pm
Ideally they’d go fewer years, maybe a higher annual value. $10 million a year for 4 years with an option for a 4th year.
T.C
August 29th, 2011
12:20 pm
@ AROUND THE HORN,why would you say sign him at a reasonable price? the money’s not coming out of your pocket.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
12:20 pm
It’s hard for “speed” guys to maintain high value as they age
raleighbravesfan, I can’t remember where I heard this but I think people who have looked into it found that, while players certainly slow down with age, speed guys are still pretty fast as they age. It’s hitting that is going to decline. That makes sense, logically, as well. I mean if a guy is really fast in his 20’s and early 30’s, he’s going to slow but he’s still going to be very fast into his mid- to late-30’s. But quickness is going to slow, eyesight may be affected some, so hitting is going to decline more noticeably than speed, especially if a player’s hitting skills weren’t overly outstanding in the first place.
I think Bourn fits into this. Bourn is obviously very fast. And he’s a very good hitter for an elite-defending centerfielder right now. But his hitting skills are not overly great so his hitting skills will likely drop noticeably with age while his speed, while it will decline, will not be average or below-average.
Random
August 29th, 2011
12:20 pm
ncscoots (August 29th, 2011 9:20 am): ” [R:] ‘Braves will likely offer AGonzalez a 2-year deal (perhaps with a 3rd year club option/buy-out), to ease the transition of Pastornicky to the ML.’
“[R], luv ya, man, but, if the FO does that, I’d be checking the water cooler for hallucinogens.”
Hmmmmm.
Well, okay, but I can’t help but wondering why you wouldn’t also check my water cooler as well.
Is it that much of a foregone conclusion?
PS: Two years for AGon!
PPS: Lowe will not be traded.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
12:25 pm
DAP, honestly I don’t memorize contracts, so I’d have to do some research to get specific numbers. But I know Bourn and Boras will likely ask for a contract that matches the going rate for top 7 or so centerfielders. But I think over the length of his next contract that he’ll be closer to one of the 15-20 best centerfielders.
wreckbuzz
August 29th, 2011
12:28 pm
Something to remember about Frank Wren…he gave a 31 year old Dan Uggla a 5 year deal that will last thru age 35. And Uggla is a slugger, who’s skills would be more effected by age than a speedster/slap hitter like Bourn. A 5 year deal for Bourn would take him to age 34. So I think the Braves can roll the dice with a 4-5 yr deal at $10m per. Salaries for Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Chipper Jones will come off the books in the next couple of years as younger guys like Jurrjens and Hanson approach arbitration years and free agency. So the Braves are in position to make this deal and stay in their payroll level.
But also what a lot of people don’t talk about is the fact that Liberty Media will be free to sell the Braves starting this winter having satisfied the required timeframe of ownership to reap the tax benefits of taking the Braves property as part of the transaction of their sale of Time Warner stock. Which means the Braves very likely could be under new ownership before they have to make any rash decisions about Jurrjens and Hanson vis a vi free agency.
Bob the Blogger
August 29th, 2011
12:29 pm
Fun facts: Bourn has a career OBP of .338, and McLouth has a career OBS of .337. Bourn has a career OPS of .699, and McLouth has a career OPS of .764.
athbrave
August 29th, 2011
12:32 pm
Of course Boras will try to bend the Braves over a stump…that’s his job! Wren’s is to have a ceiling going into negotiations and not exceed it.
Should they try to extend him? Absolutely. He’s so much fast than Andruw, he gets to balls on the run, making it look easy. Andruw, while a good fielder, was always a little heavy and constantly had to dive for balls, making the highlight reels, simply because he didn’t have Bourn’s (or Constanza’s) speed. You can’t coach speed, and it’s nice not having to wait on a homerun to win a game.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
12:33 pm
kozysnacker Player X is Brett Gardner, who also possess plus-plus speed and great defensive range. Would you pay $40 million over five years for Gardner?
actually i might, if i thought gardner was a GG CFer.
im kinda on the fence about bourn, but id say that $40 for 5 would need to be considered pretty hard.
Random
August 29th, 2011
12:36 pm
Jefferson (August 29th, 2011 9:32 am): “Next i can invsion Infante coming back as a bench player to spell chipper or uggla or play a little outfield as well as SS or really anywhere. Hopefully Atl can get that worked out bcuz this guy is a great addition.”
Infante thru 28 Aug 11 = .278/.321/.363/.684, which more or less represents an expected “regression to the mean” of his career line of .275/.319/.391/.710.
Let no one here ever expect to see again the .321/.359/.416/.775 Infante of last year, much less anything better.
The Braves have already gotten all they ever will from Infante.
cosmo
August 29th, 2011
12:37 pm
I think we should sign Bourn in arbitration for 2012 then if he has a good first half – try to lock him up – one month so far is just a small glimpse- how does Georgie compare in the field- ? in the future as he matures – Bourn will slow down but will probably pack a little more power
Bill
August 29th, 2011
12:41 pm
Well. YES sign him before next year……
RemoW
August 29th, 2011
12:42 pm
Got to say, this is one of the best commented blogs all year. I have read just about every post and it is all really solid with some minor exceptions. I have really enjoyed it.
For the record: Chipper 2nd all time works due to his switch hitting and solid defense. No disrespect for Mathews but I believe that the pitching has been superior during Chipper’s run. He is 2nd all time among 3rd basemen with a .533 slg%, 936 ops, 4th in HR, 3rd in BB.
It is very hard to discount those numbers. Schmidt was the best package over all. But he is a career 267 hitter.
Trojan
August 29th, 2011
12:42 pm
Random: What kind of numbers do you expect from a utility player?
RemoW
August 29th, 2011
12:43 pm
Yes, sign Bourn!
DAP
August 29th, 2011
12:49 pm
random, infante’s current problem is that the marlins arent using him as a bench player. he is a fine player, and in the role he had with atlanta the past three years, id be comfortable guessing his performance would be much better.
bring him back.
coach13
August 29th, 2011
12:53 pm
THey absolutely should re-sign Bourn. No question about it.
Farnsworthy
August 29th, 2011
1:00 pm
Re-sign him and them we will all be ‘Bourne Again Braves’.
Random
August 29th, 2011
1:01 pm
Jefferson (August 29th, 2011 9:32 am): “Next i can invsion Infante coming back as a bench player to spell chipper or uggla or play a little outfield as well as SS or really anywhere. Hopefully Atl can get that worked out bcuz this guy is a great addition.”
Infante thru 28 Aug 11 = .278/.321/.363/.684, which more or less represents an expected “regression to the mean” of his career line of .275/.319/.391/.710.
Let no one here ever expect to see again the .321/.359/.416/.775 Infante of last year, much less anything better.
The Braves have already gotten all they ever will from Infante.
==========================================
Jefferson (August 29th, 2011 9:32 am): “Chipper haters. Sit down. Look everyone gets hurt, look at Tommy, JJ, McCann, Heyward, Moylan, etc. Thats part of the game. And if chipper thinks the TEAM would be better if he wasnt in the lineup then so be it. He should sit & get healed. I think Fredi has finally figured it out that Chipper should sit & rest atleast once a week (like McCann) to ensure hes healthy and can contribute when playing. No matter what, this is the best clutch hitter on this team and without him this team doesnt have that present on & off field”
Hear, hear!!!
If ever I were to “cosign” a comment, it would be this one.
Thanks, Jefferson.
====================================
CB (August 29th, 2011 9:33 am): “I can’t believe Pastornicky can be more than 1 year away if the Braves believe he has enough talent to be a full time SS. Why would we sign anyone for more than 1 year unless it is at a low salary? This team has a lot of decisions to make over the next few years, SS cannot be a high salary position.”
Braves will likely offer AGonzalez a 2-year deal (perhaps with a 3rd year club option/buy-out), to ease the transition of Pastornicky to the ML. If Pastornicky is all you think he will be, AGonzalez will be his back-up in 2013. If not, AGonzalez will start.
Farnsworthy
August 29th, 2011
1:02 pm
If FW really has a chance to get Infante back–he should DO IT!!
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
1:04 pm
Yes, sign Bourn!
I dunno. Here’s a guy who had a good rookie year, and fell off in his second year. You guys are ready to torch the Braves’ current incarnation of such a player.
Oh, wait. You say Bourn rebounded from that second year? Well, that’s OK, then. Sign him up, LOL.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
1:06 pm
@ wreckbuzz
actually, power tends to stick around a bit longer than you think. Uggla will probably still be hitting 25-30 HR’s a year at age 35. However Bourn will probably not be much more than a good fielding slap hitter by his age 34. He will still have value due to his defense. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bourn’s numbers at age 33 or 34 to be .285/. 340/ .340 which , for CF, isn’t that terrible. But it’s definitely second tier. Uggla should still be well over .800 OPS by age 35 due to his huge power numbers. In fact, though Uggla by that point may be best served as an AL type of player (platooning and DG’ing) The fact that he has struggled for much of this year with his batting and will still post a career high in HR’s speaks a lot about the raw power he has. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit 40+ the next year or two.
Doc Holliday
August 29th, 2011
1:07 pm
4 year deal Bourn
1 year deal Contanza
Conrad Packing
1 year deal Hinske
Lock up Prado as he will be our 3B, looks durable to me (besides Staph, he has durable)
Get MIF help
Rest is set.
Randy S
August 29th, 2011
1:09 pm
Team already has an option on Hinske for 2012.
Constanza is under team control for the next 5 years, I do believe.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
1:11 pm
We don’t need to give Constanza a deal. He’s under control and they can pay him wtvr they want. Remember he’s a true rookie this year.
I think Hinske has an option for next year that will surely be used as well.
Brooks…. I dunno, he doesn’t make much and has some value as a switch hitting PH’er (and he doesn’t cost very much).
Prado is an interesting case for me. If he doesn’t rebound from this mediocre year I see him as a non-tender candidate after 2012. He will get a big raise and IMO, unless he hits like he did in 2010, he won’t be worth it. All his peripheral stats show he hasn’t been much better than Heyward this year.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
1:11 pm
Randy beat me to it
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
1:12 pm
Lock up Prado as he will be our 3B, looks durable to me
I believe Prado has missed as many games due to injury as anyone on the club, in the last two years. And he’s had his share of injury problems, even before that.
Random
August 29th, 2011
1:21 pm
dobearsbare (August 29th, 2011 9:59 am): ”
To me, two things come to mind. First, if you’re moving to a new offensive model — and it appears the Braves are — it would make sense to acquire and retain players that fit that model. Second, if the Braves sign Bourn to a five-year deal, less than halfway into it they’re presumably going to have some other major salaries come off the books (Chipper and Derek Lowe). Jurrjens and Hanson obviously are going to be making more money by then, but the $15-$18 million annual salaries just don’t seem all that likely for both of them. I’d guess the Braves will keep one. Likewise, Prado will be in line for a significant pay raise.”
What makes you so sure that Prado will even be here in 2014?
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
1:22 pm
All his peripheral stats show he hasn’t been much better than Heyward this year.
And yet, I’d call that a matter of the mirror casting a dull reflection. OPS+ and wOBA and others, notwithstanding.
I think this is one of those rare cases where the same numbers do not mean the same thing.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
1:23 pm
NickB, I think Uggla will be above average in the power department for most of the rest of his Braves’ tenure. But he’s never been one to draw a ton of walks or hit for a high average, so I think he’s going to struggle to be a decent on-base guy once he starts to lose some bat speed. I think we’re looking at some Brandon Phillips type offensive seasons from Uggla in the near future: solid power, below average on-base. Plus his defense isn’t good so he may be the guy that takes over for Chipper at third, eventually.
bfred
August 29th, 2011
1:26 pm
I think a better analog for Bourn might be Kenny Lofton.
- Fast outfielder
- Limited power (7.6HR, 6.8Triples/yr)
- .299 BA, .372OBP, .423SLG, .795OPS
Played until he was 40, and was productive right to the end. He was a creator, a terror on the basepaths and a 4x Gold-Glove fielder.
Random
August 29th, 2011
1:35 pm
DAP (August 29th, 2011 10:27 am): “michael ‘Why do baseball writers continue to list batting average first when on base percentage and slugging percentage are much better statistics for judging how good a player is? Peirre on base percentage has always been poor, as opposed to Bourne’s,’
“pierre’s OBP has not always been poor.
“and batting average tells you something different than OBP. cant we use both?”
Sure, why not use both? Keep AVG in addition to OBP.
Only base AVG on Plate Appearances (just like OBP), rather than on the arbitrary and artificial category of “At Bats”.
kreedham
August 29th, 2011
1:38 pm
In the off season can we get a once a month music blog by DOB? McMurtry in Athens (I think Oct) and one I’m going to Bruce Cockburn at Variety I believe on 9/8.
Sign Bourn..dump Boras!
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
1:40 pm
Sign Bourne. Nobody is a sure bet, but he’s more proven than Constanzo. Don’t try to have a “replacement” for Bourn. If Constanzo stays as good as he’s been, play em both. Seems to have been working pretty good so far.
What is WAR?
DAP
August 29th, 2011
1:40 pm
bfred - .299 BA, .372OBP, .423SLG, .795OPS
escept bourn has never come close to putting up that slash line in his career. even in a career year, he isnt close.
phil
August 29th, 2011
1:44 pm
raleighbravefan
August 29th, 2011
10:33 am
To everyone – If you were a baseball player, who would you want to represent you?
******************
Boras.
Amen on the greed thing. The man does his job and does it well as he’s supposed to do.
Random
August 29th, 2011
1:45 pm
Trojan (August 29th, 2011 12:42 pm): ” What kind of numbers do you expect from a utility player?”
Question is, what kind of numbers do you expect TO PAY a (mere) utility player?
Over 4 million a year?
No, thanks.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
1:45 pm
NickB, I see Prado as a player with a lot of average skills and a player who is versatile, which obviously makes him more valuable than your typical player with a lot of average skills.
ncscoots, Prado has the edge in versatility but Heyward has the edge in defense skills, while they’ve been equals at the plate this season.
Random
August 29th, 2011
1:49 pm
Ward (August 29th, 2011 12:41 am): “Worry about Bourn in the Off-Season,and then start focusing on saving money, by cutting players like Agon,and Lowe,and put that money away for a third baseman for the following year.”
No MLB team can “save money by cutting players” that are still under contract.
(August 29th, 2011 12:48 am): “Focus on Bourn in the Off-season,and also try to get Infante back!”
Infante thru 28 Aug 11 = .278/.321/.363/.684, which more or less represents an expected “regression to the mean” of his career line of .275/.319/.391/.710.
Let no one here ever expect to see again the .321/.359/.416/.775 Infante of last year, much less anything better.
The Braves have already gotten all they ever will from Infante.
===========================================
chuck (August 29th, 2011 3:19 am): “So, no let’s not save this money, let’s spend the McLouth and KK saves on arb increases, and hopefully move Lowe to some team who will eat $5MM of his salary, so that we can give that to Bourn.”
Robin Of The Hood (August 29th, 2011 4:16 am): “money will be there with Nate and D Lowe (he’s gone man…no way you keep him when Julio T, Dellgado or Minor could all win 10 games ATLEAST next year)….When you can win the same amount of games for 13-14 million less”
chuck (August 29th, 2011 4:28 am): As to Robin of the Hood: Arb increases will eat up KK and Nate’s salaries…the only found money will be if we can get someone to take Lowe off of our hands at a steep subsidy…you’ll have to wait til 2013…”
Jefferson (August 29th, 2011 9:32 am): “D Lowe – GONE, eat half salary and trade or release or mayb D Lowe agrees to restructure last year down to 7-8M. EIther way need to cut that salary down. It was a terrible deal 3 years ago when Atl was trying to give money way and need to correct this.”
Lowe will not be traded.
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
1:51 pm
ncscoots
Great point about the Heyward haters.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
1:51 pm
@ Bruno
WAR is a sabremetric stat that is used to determine player value. It stands for Wins Above Replacement. It weighs production differently based on position (production at SS or CF is worth more than at 1b or RF due to the avg production at SS and CF being lower across the league) it also takes defense into account to create a simple number of which to compare players. Some people love it, I’m a little skeptical of it’s true value, However, because it is just a logarithm it IS a good tool for comparing players of the same position on the field.
Oh and Constanza is regressing big time. IMO a good scouting report is out on him and he is going to have to work the count more and not swing so much or he’s in trouble.
last 10 games his avg is .185, obp .245 and slugging is .185… epically bad
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
1:51 pm
Random
Why do you keep re-pasting your old answers?
STICK
August 29th, 2011
1:51 pm
My GRANDMAW could throw Bourn out trying to steal 2nd………………..Hold the phone on this guy just yet
NickB
August 29th, 2011
1:53 pm
For a more in depth (yet easy to read) explanation of WAR here’s a link. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/
NickB
August 29th, 2011
1:55 pm
@ Stick
umm, the numbers don’t seem to back up your theory there…. his career stolen base % is over 80%…. that’s plenty good enough. (generally it needs to be 75% at a minimum to be worth the risk)
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
1:55 pm
NickB, WAR is actually a good tool for comparing players of different positions because it takes things like positional scarcity and defense into account. It’s solid for getting an idea of overall value. The biggest problems with it are that single-season defensive stats are often not reliable and it’s difficult to measure the defensive impacts of catchers and first basemen.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
1:56 pm
Some people love it, I’m a little skeptical of it’s true value, However, because it is just a logarithm it IS a good tool for comparing players of the same position on the field.
I knew there was a reason I liked you, LOL. That’s the perfect attitude to take, not only on WAR, but anything else. Each useful in its way, none a Holy Grail. If we could get a few more people on that train (geeks and dinosaurs, both), we might actually be able to have a good conversation about such things.
Props to NickB!
phil
August 29th, 2011
1:56 pm
Fire FG…
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
1:56 pm
Bourn is a good player, and I’d love for the Braves to have him over the next few years, but I’m not sure I’d be willing to pay to keep him here. Ideally, we’d have him for the next three seasons through 2014. After that, could be in for some serious regression. That’s why I’d be willing to give him a contract that goes through 2015. But Boras is going to want a five year deal worked out this offseason that carries him through 2016. That, I’d probably not be willing to do.
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
1:56 pm
Thanks for the work DOB.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
1:58 pm
But I wanted Uggla at a year less than we gave him, and that didn’t happen.
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
1:59 pm
However, because it is just a logarithm it IS a good tool for comparing players of the same position on the field.
Wait, WAR is a “logarithm”? That’s a new spin on it… one might say it takes it up an exponential notch.
Random
August 29th, 2011
1:59 pm
Snotboogie (August 29th, 2011 1:51 pm): “Why do you keep re-pasting your old answers?”
Senility. Lack of focus. Distractions. Senility. Poor memory. Senility.
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
2:00 pm
But I wanted Uggla at a year less than we gave him, and that didn’t happen.
That’s the cost of dealing with players. Almost always the contract is a notch more than one is comfortable with.
phil
August 29th, 2011
2:00 pm
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
1:55 pm
NickB, WAR is actually a good tool for comparing players of different positions because it takes things like positional scarcity and defense into account. It’s solid for getting an idea of overall value. The biggest problems with it are that single-season defensive stats are often not reliable and it’s difficult to measure the defensive impacts of catchers and first basemen.
***************
When I read this kind of thing, I just want to scream….poor baseball. Way overanalyzed…
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
2:01 pm
but I’m not sure I’d be willing to pay to keep him here
And now for the rest of your post. I agree, that is is something to look into, but it isn’t going to be easy to decide. The team has to look at the other options, and if there really isn’t one, then signing him is the better move, even if the contract is a bit scarier than desired.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
2:02 pm
ncscoots, who thinks WAR or any stat is the “Holy Grail”? The bigger issue is those who want to disregard certain stats that have some use because they either have their flaws in actually measuring value or because they don’t perfectly predict the future (as if any stat does). I don’t know of anyone who thinks a stat like WAR is the “Holy Grail” but there are plenty who want to completely disregard it for the aforementioned reasons.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
2:02 pm
But I wanted Uggla at a year less than we gave him, and that didn’t happen.
Thus, I think we can coin a new term, the “Efrim Indicator”. This would be a leading indicator on possible contract length. We take whatever Efrim would be happy with, and add one. This will give us a high probability of predicting what the Braves will actually do.
Reason
August 29th, 2011
2:04 pm
Bobby Cox’s love affair with the 3 run homer was not only inhibited this team’s versatility in the postseason, it was just painfully boring to wait, and wait, and wait for the big home run!
Meanwhile, other teams were winning the World Series this past decade that could manufacture runs in the postseason both ways: the big, timely home run, and the ability to “manufacture” runs with speed that leads to misplayed balls, stolen bases, hit and runs, etc.
Wrong wrong wrong and double wrong.
Most teams that have won the worlds series in the last 20 years have done one thing really well.
Hit homers.
Most of them had no speed at all.
Yankees didnt. Sox didnt.
Extremely high OBP numbers ( Which work the pitchers and get them out of the game faster ), teams that take walks and then hit the long ball win.
Braves have been on a roll since the break right.
Alot of people will have you believe its this unbelievable speed we have now ( never mind that the team is still one of the slowest ) and all that pressure it puts on defenses.
Bull.
If you wanna know why the Braves have played well since the break here it is.
The lead the league in homers since that time. ( Or close to it. They were ahead a few days ago )
Small ball doesn’t win. When you play for one run that’s all your gonna score.
Homers and crooked numbers win games.
phil
August 29th, 2011
2:05 pm
ncscoots – Efrim’s Indicator would be more accurate than whatever this WAR crap is!
Fire Shaun…
TennesseePaul
August 29th, 2011
2:06 pm
Thus, I think we can coin a new term, the “Efrim Indicator”.
I like it.
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:07 pm
Seems to me that Lowe is blown out of proportion as problem for the Braves. Hell, he looks good lately. I’m worried about the rotation down the stretch, but D.Lowe is not what concerns me. If JJ and Hanson can’t get right, we need our other pitchers more than ever right? Or do you guys think they should just throw these AAA guys out there to pitch the playoffs?
DAP
August 29th, 2011
2:08 pm
random Let no one here ever expect to see again the .321/.359/.416/.775 Infante of last year, much less anything better.
The Braves have already gotten all they ever will from Infante.
i know how much you love to copy and paste, but dang! at least when shaun says the same stuff over an over, he uses different words every now and then.
MikeInFl
August 29th, 2011
2:08 pm
WAR, what is it good for?
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
2:08 pm
Anecdotal evidence is heavily weighed towards supporting the “Efrim Indicator” as a predictor. All that is now required are the clinical trials.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
2:11 pm
Reason, yep. Baseball offense is about getting the 3-run homers…well, not literally but basically that’s what it’s about. It’s about on-base and slugging. You can’t separate baseball offense from getting on base and slugging. A good offensive team has to be good at one or both of these. A great offense has to be good at both. These things are offense in baseball. There’s no way around it.
Murph
August 29th, 2011
2:12 pm
Heyward has the edge in defense skills, while they’ve been equals at the plate this season.
I disagree… Heyward is a RF only. He could maybe play in CF if all other CF on the team die of dysentery at the same time, but he’s really only a RF.
Prado, on the other hand, plays a good to very good 3B/2B and a serviceable LF. You can’t separate versatility and skills the way you seem to want to. His skills are what make him so versatile.
They could make Heyward versatile and put him at 3B or C but I’m guessing he’d fail pretty miserably.
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
2:12 pm
All that is now required are the clinical trials.
Dry mouth, headache, and one-year overpayment are the major side-effects that participants should be advised to expect.
Bocefus
August 29th, 2011
2:13 pm
If you guys are looking for an Atlanta Braves discussion board, where you have free speech and nude chicks, check out http://www.deviantsunderground.com. We host rainbow parties, to initiate all new members. Ask for flight, he has no gag reflex. I know the name of the site is horrible and i promise, we don’t touch kids.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
2:13 pm
phil, saying something like “whatever this WAR crap is” is a strong indication that you don’t know enough about it to have an intelligent discussion about whether and how it’s useful.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
2:14 pm
Dry mouth, headache, and one-year overpayment
Guess that means we have to wait until the end of Uggla’s contract before submitting the study results to SABR.
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
2:15 pm
Definitely re-sign Bourn. Guy can fly, play great defense, hit for average, and leadoff. Those all have to be worth something. I’m not sure how much, but we don’t have any other real options in CF.
And it’s really hard to quantify him. How much in a stolen base worth in relation to on base, slugging percentage, etc.
How much is his defense worth?
How much is his ability to hit leadoff worth?
Tough questions to answer and to quantify.
RC
August 29th, 2011
2:16 pm
Murph,
Prado’s versatility was mentioned earlier in Shaun’s statement, treating it as a seperate skill than defense. While his versatility does add more value to the overall roster, once the players are on the field the only position that matters for defense is the position they are playing at that moment. From that standpoint, I think it is safe to say that Heyward is a better outfielder than Prado defensively.
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:17 pm
Without taking a side on SPEED vs. HOMERS…
and without any stats to throw at people…
I do watch the games,and I feel like i’ve seen a much better and more complete team since Bourn and Constanzo have been blowin it up. Can somebody disprove this with stats: I feel like I’ve seen way more errors committed against the braves with these guys hitting/running bases. We have 2 guys (about 1/4 of the lineup) that can walk and then be a third a couple of pitches later. The lineup seems so much more potent and dangerous. I think opposing teams feel this too.
From my perspective, this new lineup is what this Braves team needs to stick with, regardless of who won with what in the past. Also remember, it’s not like they gave up power to get these two. Bourn replaces McClouth/Schafer, who weren’t bringing much power to the table. Constanzo replaces a guy that’s been slumping all year.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
2:18 pm
Murph, my point is that Heyward probably adds value with his defense in rightfield while Prado probably doesn’t add as much value with his defense at any given position, it’s more his ability to play different positions that adds value than him being much better than average at left or third (or second, if he played there again).
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
2:18 pm
The team has to look at the other options, and if there really isn’t one, then signing him is the better move, even if the contract is a bit scarier than desired.
I just hope we don’t keep doing this…
Thus, I think we can coin a new term, the “Efrim Indicator”. This would be a leading indicator on possible contract length. We take whatever Efrim would be happy with, and add one. This will give us a high probability of predicting what the Braves will actually do.
Hah! Love it.
Brave4life-1995 allover again??
August 29th, 2011
2:19 pm
Losing Hanson is gonna end up being a big blow in the playoffs. They need him bad, He was the Braves best SP for the better part of the season.
Random
August 29th, 2011
2:20 pm
DAP (August 29th, 2011 2:08 pm) –
Dang! indeed.
Sorry.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
2:21 pm
I can’t believe the Braves last played on Friday night…..and got owned.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
2:22 pm
bruno I feel like i’ve seen a much better and more complete team since Bourn and Constanzo have been blowin it up.
yup. very balanced.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
2:23 pm
Losing Hanson is gonna end up being a big blow in the playoffs.
And a big blow to the 2012 season and a trade with KC where we ship Jair for Myers and Cuthbert(not Elisha).
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
2:23 pm
“Losing Hanson is gonna end up being a big blow in the playoffs. They need him bad, He was the Braves best SP for the better part of the season.”
Disagree. Jair Jurrjens was the teams best pitcher for the majority of the season and currently it is Tim Hudson. He is probably the team’s third starter in the playoffs. Not saying they don’t need him, but they are good enough to win without him.
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:24 pm
I hardly see JHey and Prado as equals at the plate this year. With the game on the line, with runners in scoring position (or not), braves really need a big hit, who do you wanna see ;up there between the two?
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
2:25 pm
Bruno Brigadoon, it’s not really a question of speed versus homers. It’s a question of getting on base and slugging versus speed. That’s the biggest difference in the Braves with Bourn and the Braves with Schafer: Bourn can get on base and Schafer wasn’t good at it and the team as a whole is hitting more homers since that time (which has little to do with Bourn or Schafer and more to do with the rest of the team playing closer to reasonable expectations in the second half than the did in the first half).
Interesting that you bring up McLouth and Schafer. Those guys weren’t exactly slow, which is a good indication that it’s not speed that changed the Braves’ offense. It has much more to do with having a leadoff hitter than can get on and the rest of the team hitting better than they did early on.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
2:25 pm
And it’s really hard to quantify him. How much in a stolen base worth in relation to on base, slugging percentage, etc.
Not so hard. Every offensive event can be calculated to have a runs value, including SBs. So it’s actually pretty simple to determine relative values of each event.
How much is his defense worth?
Also pretty simple, though more subjective and thus providing a lower confidence level in the comparisons. But it’s done every day at various websites.
In truth, there are ways to quantify most aspects of a player’s performance. Not all of them are high-confidence, though, and there’s certainly some wiggle-room in such an analysis.
Random
August 29th, 2011
2:27 pm
Snotboogie (August 29th, 2011 1:51 pm): “Why do you keep re-pasting your old answers?”
Perhaps more than one comment deserves the same answer, just as more than one answer may be addressed to the same comment.
Murph
August 29th, 2011
2:27 pm
I don’t have any fielding stats in front of me, but I don’t recall many occasions where Heyward has done anything special with his glove. I’m sure the stats show different, but he doesn’t seem like he’s a gold glove caliber outfielder. He’s always seemed serviceable, maybe slightly better than your average RF, but not anything special.
Again, I’m sure y’all will throw 20 stats at me that show otherwise, but that’s what my eyes have seen.
Given the makeup of this particular team I’d also argue with anyone who says Prado’s defense isn’t as valuable as Heyward’s. If Constanza goes down to injury and Heyward finds himself back in the starting lineup, the upgrade in right isn’t all that noticeable. If Chipper goes down and Prado is at 3B, compared to the other options currently on the team, I’d say his value as a 3B replacement outweighs that of Heyward as a RF replacement. Given the current makeup of this team. This year. With these guys.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
2:28 pm
Hanson is the best arm in the organization. Losing him to a shoulder injury is terrible. In fact, other than Heyward continuing to struggle for the remainder of time, I can’t think of a more terrible thing to happen to this franchise.
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
2:28 pm
“It has much more to do with having a leadoff hitter than can get on and the rest of the team hitting better than they did early on.”
That’s why I think Bourn has a lot of value. Just the fact that he can hit leadoff, and this teams NEEDS a true leadoff hitter.
I’ve been looking over the WAR numbers on fangraphs over the last 3 years of NL CFs.
Bourn 13.6
Victorino 13.4
CarGo 12.6
McCutchen 12.5
Kemp 11.9
MikeInFl
August 29th, 2011
2:29 pm
We stole bases much more efficiently in July (pre-Bourn and for the most part pre-Constanza) than we have in August with them.
July: 17 SB, 5 CS, 77.2%
August: 16 SB, 10 CS, 61.5%
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:29 pm
HIs D is worth a lot. HIs ability to lead off is worth a lot. The fact that he’s exactly what the Braves have been needing for years is worth a lot.
Flawless calculations. Pay the man a lot.
Shaun
August 29th, 2011
2:29 pm
Bruno Brigadoon, depends on the pitcher. With a RHP, I’d rather have Heyward up there. With a LHP, I’d rather have Prado up.
If you look not just at batting average, and if you ignore expectations/hype/etc., and if you just look at what they’ve done offensively as a whole, they’ve been equal at the plate this season.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
2:30 pm
Disagree [that losing Hanson for the playoffs would be a blow]
There are really only two swing-and-miss guys on the staff, Hanson and Beachy. Playoffs really make that kind of pitchers’ stuff play up. Not having a healthy Hanson most assuredly would hurt the Braves.
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
2:30 pm
ncscoots – Ok, I’ll go with that, so how does a speedy, leadoff CF like Bourn compare to the rest of his peers?
T for Texas
August 29th, 2011
2:30 pm
we have to wait until the end of Uggla’s contract before submitting the study results to SABR
That, and pray that the Braves don’t extend Alex for two, or three years just for the sake of science.
phil
August 29th, 2011
2:30 pm
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:07 pm
Seems to me that Lowe is blown out of proportion as problem for the Braves. Hell, he looks good lately. I’m worried about the rotation down the stretch, but D.Lowe is not what concerns me. If JJ and Hanson can’t get right, we need our other pitchers more than ever right? Or do you guys think they should just throw these AAA guys out there to pitch the playoffs?
******************
If we keep hitting like we did the past week, and most of the season before that minus the Uggla tear month, it won’t matter if you and me and DOB pitch….
Bruno Brigadoon
August 29th, 2011
2:31 pm
July: 17 SB, 5 CS, 77.2%
August: 16 SB, 10 CS, 61.5%
No kidding?!!! can somebody expound on these numbers for me? I’m a little blown away…
MattyRoss
August 29th, 2011
2:31 pm
I think someone else might’ve mentioned it, but did folks notice that the Phillies now have zero off days for the rest of the year. Maybe not a huge deal, but I’ll take it.
Snotboogie
August 29th, 2011
2:32 pm
There are really only two swing-and-miss guys on the staff, Hanson and Beachy.
Things might not be as bad if Beachy just replaced Hanson’s spot. But Fredi will push up Lowe and Beachy will be the 4th option. And right now Lowe in that position scares me.
MFin04
August 29th, 2011
2:33 pm
“There are really only two swing-and-miss guys on the staff, Hanson and Beachy. Playoffs really make that kind of pitchers’ stuff play up. Not having a healthy Hanson most assuredly would hurt the Braves.”
I think swing and miss guys can be overrated… Jurrjens has the ability to pitch out of jams as well as Hudson. They may not strike guys out, but they get guys out when they need to.
I think a trio of Hudson, Jurrjens, Beachy is pretty darn good for the playoffs. I could also see a guy like Lowe stepping up, Minor getting out a team of lefties perhaps, and one of the kids getting a chance to shine.