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1,264 comments Add your comment
Mike#
August 29th, 2011
9:06 am
Bourn will turn 30 in 2012 and his offensive numbers, beyond SBs, have been very sporadic. Before this season, he never hit beyond .285 and there hasn’t even been any consistency in that range. He is in the prime of his career and his numbers are showing it. But I think it would be wise to wait until we see what he does next season before locking him down. It’s a trend that players of his nature, such as Rajai Davis, Juan Pierre, etc. cannot sustain continued performance of the same caliber for a constant, for a significant amount of time. He’s due around 4 million next year, if I’m not mistaken. So you’ll have to give him a raise and take on at least a 4-5 year deal.
I say wait and see how things pan out.
phil
August 29th, 2011
9:07 am
Rowsdower
August 29th, 2011
5:41 am
I can’t believe that anyone that is a true Braves fan is giving up on Heyward. He is 22 and has all the tools to be a monster. I can’t see him as a factor this year, but he is definitely the future. He just needs time to get his head straight and work through the adjustments it takes to be a major league player. He isn’t going to get that time in the heat of a pennant race. He’ll get it together in spring training and be ready to rock next year.
**********************
He’s not the present, the past or the future. I read an interesting piece yesterday that quoted chipper on Wayward. Chipper said that Wayward has one swing. We all know this is the case from watching him, but it was interesting to see him come right out and say that as long as Wayward refuses to learn how to hit big league pitching by adjusting his swing as necessary, he can basically forget it.
I’ll taek Chipper at his word since the man clearly knows his stuff. The rest of you can keep fantasizing about Wayward and the worth(lessness) of his baseball cards.
Michael
August 29th, 2011
9:07 am
Why do baseball writers continue to list batting average first when on base percentage and slugging percentage are much better statistics for judging how good a player is? Peirre on base percentage has always been poor, as opposed to Bourne’s, that is why so many people said his contract was awful. A team only gets a maximum of 27 outs in a regulation game, so each out is precious.
As for Moneyball – the key to understanding the idea is that team should look for market ineffeciencies and capitolize on those. There is a new book out about the Rays, I think it is called the Other Two Percent.
Frank Wren
August 29th, 2011
9:07 am
Can you focus on this year??
John A
August 29th, 2011
9:08 am
There will come a day when team will tell Scott Boras to take a hike. The money commanded will depend largely on what is on the market.
These players have got to realize there is only so much money teams will pay. By salaries going up, that means ticket prices go up too. How much more will fans pay?????
MoreIsLess
August 29th, 2011
9:10 am
The reason Furcal only stole 30 bases 2 times for the Braves and averaged 14 homers is because of the Braves obsession with the home run. The Braves philosophy (at least under Bobby Cox) is to get a guy on base and then wait for someone to hit a homerun to score him. Bourn fits well on a team which manufactures runs, which the Braves are not. So, the Braves will probably pass on signing him in favor of another player like Andrew Jones that either hits a home run or strikes out.
I say, sign him, we need the speed to complement the Braves power, not another homerun hitter. Not to mention, speed makes the game more exciting to watch.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
9:10 am
He’s not the present, the past or the future.
So, phil, are you ballgaming the guy, LOL? Bust, for sure?
enz
August 29th, 2011
9:10 am
SIGN
MikeInFl
August 29th, 2011
9:13 am
Constanza is not an option as a full-time centerfielder. He is fast, but that doesn’t make him a good fielder (without even discussing whether he can hit big league pitching full-time).
The thing that’s glossed over is Bourn’s defense. That’s where his value lies, to me. A team built on solid pitching should invest in defense up the middle.
I’m not sold on his huge impact offensively, but I think he’ll be at least adequate offensively. Add that to gold-glove defense at a premium position, and he’s worth a sizable investment.
My feeling is that DOB hit it about right at 5/40. It’s the high end of what I’d like to see us pay, but I’m fine with it.
John A
August 29th, 2011
9:14 am
Phil…..you’re absolutely right. As long as JHEY insists his way is the right way, he’ll NEVER be any better than he is now. Andruw only regressed under Bobby, and now we have another cut of the same mold.
Daybed Wagmoe
August 29th, 2011
9:15 am
Looks like a lot of people are in favor of signing Bourn to an extension. Add me to that list.
A big reason for signing him is that the amount of money we should have available. Cot’s Baseball Contracts is a great resource for player contracts, and here’s a spreadsheet of Braves’ players salaries from 2011-2016: https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tujElf32-2d237jk3IzWLsg&output=html
Dan Uggla will be making $13.2 million. McCann’s club option for ‘13 is $12 million. Chipper ($7 million) and Hudson ($9 million with a $1 mil buyout) both have options in 2013. Young guys like Jurrjens, Hanson, Prado, EOF, Venters, and Heyward will all have raises via arbitration. The big payroll concern for 2014 and beyond will be signing McCann to an extension, and I would think that the Braves would want to do that.
Considering how many young starting pitchers we should have in the rotation by 2014, and how many young players we have elsewhere on the roster — Freeman, Pastornicky, Heyward, Prado — the Braves should have plenty of money available to sign Bourn to an extension, I would think. If we can get him at $8 million, then definitely do it. I think that since it’s Boras, though, the Braves will probably have to pay more around $10-12 million. And since Frank Wren has come out and said that they’re trying to become a more defensive and speedy club, then Bourn is exactly the kind of guy that would be good to have long-term, and $10-12 would be worth it, I’d say.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
9:16 am
Hmm best 3rd Basemen of all time ? It’s tough….
Schmidt- Career OPS .908, OPS+147 , WAR per game avg- .0450
Mathews- OPS- .885, OPS+ 143, WAR per game avg- .0411
Brett- OPS-.857 , OPS+135, WAR per game avg- .0314
Robinson- OPS-.723, OPS+104, WAR per game avg- .0239
Boggs- OPS- .858, OPS+ 130, WAR per game avg- .0364
Chipper- OPS- .936 , OPS+ 142, WAR per game avg- .0348
IMO, if you like WAR than it goes Schmidt, Mathews, Boggs then Chipper. If you like OPS+ it’s really Schmidt,Mathews, Chipper then everyone else.
IIMO, Chipper is the 2nd best 3rd baseman of all time behind Schmidt. He hit nearly as well as Schmidt, but was a mediocre defender as a whole (mostly due to throwing errors). However, the effect of his switch hitting ability cannot be denied. I think it’s enough to allow him to climb over Mathews and Boggs….. It’s close though.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
9:16 am
A team built on solid pitching should invest in defense up the middle.
I don’t disagree with you on this, Mike. But it seems pretty obvious that the Braves are willing to stray from that philosophy, if the offensive upside is high enough. Otherwise, you wouldn’t see McCann and Uggla at their positions.
Random
August 29th, 2011
9:18 am
panamajack (August 29th, 2011 12:14 am): “I think I would take my chances and wait and see what he does next year also see what Constanza and Heyward do next year. I have seen too many players get the big long term contract then fizzle afterward.”
Name ‘em.
” After next season they should have some big bucks available with the retirement of Chipper, Lowe leaving and probably Hudson, lots of money there if we still need a CF and quite possibly they won’t need anything else.”
Maybe the “big bucks” will be available, but will a CF comparable to Bourn be available then?
(August 29th, 2011 1:25 am): “I beleive the braves will need a SS next year, I don’t think A-Gon will settle for a 1 year contract because he can get a long term deal somewhere else and the braves are not going to give him more than 1 year because Pastronicky will be ready in 2013. Braves will have to trade for a SS during the off season and it will have to be someone with just one year left on his contract.”
Braves will likely offer AGonzalez a 2-year deal (perhaps with a 3rd year club option/buy-out), to ease the transition of Pastornicky to the ML. If Pastornicky is all you think he will be, AGonzalez will be his back-up in 2013. If not, AGonzalez will start.
(August 29th, 2011 1:32 am): “I would much rather have a full time 3rd baseman than pay [Jones] $15mil to play part time.”
So, you would rather have a mediocre 3B full-time than a HOF 3B part-time backed up perhaps by a mediocre 3B? Jones is still more than pulling his weight this year and there is little reason now to assume that he won’t again next year.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
9:18 am
when comparing bourn to pierre, another difference is the defense, and thats big.
yeah, i think id do $8mil per.
Fols
August 29th, 2011
9:19 am
I think a large part of re-signing him is how this season ends. For one, he’s a player that gives us a new weapon that may come in very handy this post-season. We’re going to have a very good line-up next season as well…..so management may just think, lets win it all in the next 1-2 years and then you get options.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
9:20 am
Braves will likely offer AGonzalez a 2-year deal (perhaps with a 3rd year club option/buy-out), to ease the transition of Pastornicky to the ML.
Random, luv ya, man, but, if the FO does that, I’d be checking the water cooler for hallucinogens.
MikeInFl
August 29th, 2011
9:20 am
Fair enough, scoots. But, having a big-hit, marginal-defense catcher (oh boy, I’ll hear about that) doesn’t lessen the value of having a gold glove center fielder who’s just a league-average hitter, does it?
If anything, it probably makes it both more necessary defensively, and more palatable offensively.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
9:21 am
DOB, by the way, pierre was with the cubs in ‘06, not the white sox.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
9:21 am
BTW Phil, they said the same thing about Dave Winfield. Big tall rangy guy who the “experts” said “would never develop with that swing” Yeah, how’d that work out?
He’s very young, most players his age are in AA or lower. So perhaps all of this dramatic jumping to conclusions is a bit premature? Justin Upton took awhile to develop (and he didn’t have a thumb and shoulder injury) the mentioned Winfield didn’t break an .800 OPS til he was 25 either. This idea that young players are supposed to show up and be Pujoles or they are a bust is just silly.
El Bravo
August 29th, 2011
9:23 am
DOB, does it make sense for the Braves to wait out next year to see what we really have in Constanza? If he continues to produce at a clip similar to his AAA numbers (.300 AVG. .360 OBP) then we could shift him to center after next season. If Constanza doesn’t look like a viable option then we can make a pitch to Bourn at around the All Star break next year…
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
9:23 am
doesn’t lessen the value of having a gold glove center fielder who’s just a league-average hitter, does it?
Nossir. I’m all for keeping Bourn, when it comes right down to it. Even if this is his career year and his legs start to go at 30+, he’ll still have a lot of value two-three years from now (assuming all the usual caveats on health).
Random
August 29th, 2011
9:24 am
Ward (August 29th, 2011 12:41 am): “Worry about Bourn in the Off-Season,and then start focusing on saving money, by cutting players like Agon,and Lowe,and put that money away for a third baseman for the following year.”
No MLB team can “save money by cutting players” that are still under contract.
(August 29th, 2011 12:48 am): “Focus on Bourn in the Off-season,and also try to get Infante back!”
Infante thru 28 Aug 11 = .278/.321/.363/.684, which more or less represents an expected “regression to the mean” of his career line of .275/.319/.391/.710.
Let no one here ever expect to see again the .321/.359/.416/.775 Infante of last year, much less anything better.
The Braves have already gotten all they ever will from Infante.
DOB Fan
August 29th, 2011
9:24 am
look at the available free agent CF along with Bourn. Tons of talent available.
2013 Free Agent Center fielders
Michael Bourn (30)
Marlon Byrd (35)
Melky Cabrera (28)
Curtis Granderson (32) – $13MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Matt Kemp (28)
Angel Pagan (31)
Aaron Rowand (35)
B.J. Upton (28)
Shane Victorino (32)
DAP
August 29th, 2011
9:25 am
Bay area steve, if you are still around, mlb.com re did their sortable stats recently, and they are really good now. here are all time 3B:
http://tinyurl.com/3r2a26h
El Bravo
August 29th, 2011
9:26 am
DOB, off topic, with Pastornicky tearing up AAA is it fair to assume that Gonzalez will not be re-upped?
hal
August 29th, 2011
9:30 am
schmidt mathews a rod
MikeInFl
August 29th, 2011
9:32 am
Another 2-strikeout inning for JJ Hoover yesterday. Since being inserted into the Gwinnett bullpen, Hoover now has
allowed 0 Runs, 3 hits, 4BB, and 22 K’s in 11 2/3 innings.
Don’t know if we’ll see him in Atlanta this year or not, but he probably should be included when talking about next year’s bullpen.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
9:32 am
4 McFann :Ô: :Ô: 129
Whoa…that must have painful for everyone else. Sorry about that…
Jefferson
August 29th, 2011
9:32 am
Hopefully Braves & Bourn can agree to a respectable deal. Lets not forget the Braves were willing 3 years ago to offer 10mil to Furcal to comeback (hoestly I think Bourn is much better). 40-50mil over 5 years seems very reasonable given the credentials bourn has & obviously he cant really be compared to any current players (avg/obp vs rhp & lhp, steals, defense, etc.).
KK & Mclouth will be gone which will allow funds to be spent on adding 2-4 Mil to Bourn salary as he would likely get 6.5mil or more in arbitration anyway.
Next i can invsion Infante coming back as a bench player to spell chipper or uggla or play a little outfield as well as SS or really anywhere. Hopefully Atl can get that worked out bcuz this guy is a great addition.
Next JJ should get a deal, Tommy(not so much)
D Lowe – GONE, eat half salary and trade or release or mayb D Lowe agrees to restructure last year down to 7-8M. EIther way need to cut that salary down. It was a terrible deal 3 years ago when Atl was trying to give money way and need to correct this.
Chipper haters. Sit down. Look everyone gets hurt, look at Tommy, JJ, McCann, Heyward, Moylan, etc. Thats part of the game. And if chipper thinks the TEAM would be better if he wasnt in the lineup then so be it. He should sit & get healed. I think Fredi has finally figured it out that Chipper should sit & rest atleast once a week (like McCann) to ensure hes healthy and can contribute when playing. No matter what, this is the best clutch hitter on this team and without him this team doesnt have that present on & off field
CB
August 29th, 2011
9:33 am
I can’t believe Pastornicky can be more than 1 year away if the Braves believe he has enough talent to be a full time SS. Why would we sign anyone for more than 1 year unless it is at a low salary? This team has a lot of decisions to make over the next few years, SS cannot be a high salary position.
phil
August 29th, 2011
9:34 am
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
9:10 am
He’s not the present, the past or the future.
So, phil, are you ballgaming the guy, LOL? Bust, for sure?
*************************
I don’t know. I’m just very discouraged with him. When we see what we see in the batter’s box from him and then read what Chipper thinks of his approach, or lack thereof, I get very concerned, not that I wasn’t already. Chipper knows what he’s doing, obviously, and his analysis of Heyward’s approach sounds pretty ominous to me.
I know the guy is young and all that. But we’re 2 years in now and going backwards. He’s not likely to magically hit .280 next year with 25 hrs and so on, but I guess I’ll keep on blindly hoping so that you guys don’t wish me dead…lol!
Random
August 29th, 2011
9:34 am
chuck (August 29th, 2011 4:45 am): “All that young talent is cost-controlled that you mention….only Jair and Mac will need new deals, and with Weaver signing to stay home in Anaheim, that’s a sign that Jair is much more signable than i initially thought.”
Following up on chuck’s stray thought, here is Baseball Prospectus’ Ben Lindbergh (August 23, 2011) on the Angels extending Boras client Jered Weaver’s contract prior to him becoming a free agent:
The Angels locked up their ace for five years for a smaller sum—$85 million—than Vernon Wells had coming to him when they acquired him in January. Of the two, Weaver seems like the wiser investment. Considering how Wells’ season has gone, that isn’t saying much, but even when judged against players with a pulse, Weaver’s deal looks fairly favorable for the Angels. As has been pointed out elsewhere on the internet, the pact’s parameters owe something to similar deals recently signed by Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander; to the disappointment of many a Yankees fan, it seems as though teams are becoming increasingly reluctant to let their homegrown aces be poached to form a Bronx super-rotation at the first sign of free-agent eligibility.
The terms appear reasonable for both parties, with no hint of an overpay by Anaheim; as Tom Tango noted, Weaver may actually have sold himself a bit short. While he got more in total than either Hernandez or Verlander received, he signed away only one arbitration year, as opposed to the two the other pitchers surrendered. (He had been headed for free agency after next season; instead, he’ll have to wait until after the 2016 season to test the waters.) However, he could make up for any shortfall via incentives, and he’ll also enjoy a full no-trade clause.
. . . . .
Weaver has a better track record and prospect pedigree than most of those pitchers [Jason Schmidt, Jake Peavy, Barry Zito, Carlos Zambrano, A.J. Burnett, John Lackey, Kevin Brown, Darren Dreifort, Mike Hampton, Chan Ho Park] did when they cashed in, and the Angels minimized their risk by avoiding the six- or seven-year jackpot that he likely could have commanded had he rolled the dice and remained healthy and effective through next season. This deal looked unlikely to happen several months ago, after Weaver lost an arbitration case with the Angels, prompting at least one pundit to predict that an early payday like this one would not come to pass. There’s also the matter of Weaver’s choice of agent, Scott Boras, who isn’t known for going easy on his clients’ employers.
Question is, will lightning strike twice with Bourn? (Or thrice, if you look ahead to a possible Jurrjens extension.)
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
9:36 am
2013 free agent class is stacked.
CrαZy
August 29th, 2011
9:37 am
Andruw only regressed under Bobby
Really? Did you watch him play at all after he left Atlanta? His best years were in Atlanta it’s not Bobbys fault he lived on Beer and Cheeseburgers!
NickB
August 29th, 2011
9:37 am
DOB Fan- there is a lot of CF talent. Problem is, the Braves really can’t afford the Granderson’s and Kemps of the world. i don’t want to fiddle with BJ Upton’s issues and I think that the Phils will lock up Victorino. Rowand and Byrd are old, Pagan looks , not very good and Melky just sucks…
IMO, when you consider the $$$ required Vs the potential results as a total value package. Bourn is probably the best value CF’er on that list. Cuz, barring a significant drop off in numbers, Granderson and kemp are gonna get Carl Crawford level $$ or more.
Hooter Girl
August 29th, 2011
9:37 am
It’s all a moot point, Bourn will go to Boston to play with his best buddy Carl Crawford, Braves won’t be able to match their money. Mike Schmidt was great, but only the third best behind the great Brooks Robinson and not only for the glove but the clutch hitting and the wins. 2nd was Eddie Matthews but for the sake of argument, maybe they are 2a and 2b.
reckingball
August 29th, 2011
9:38 am
DOB fan@9:24………”Melky Cabrera(28)”???
Why would the Braves want that slug back on their team?
They gave him his walking papers the day after their season ended last year, for a reason.
Melky sux.
CrαZy
August 29th, 2011
9:38 am
CB
Maybe Gonzo will sign a 1 year deal to give the Pastor another half year in AAA.
why not?
August 29th, 2011
9:39 am
Why not sign him if it it less than 10 mil a year………afterall the Brave’s payroll is getting lower due to all the rookie contracts…..next year Gonzo’s contract gone another rookie contract less than 500 thou to take his place(Pastornicky).Constanza or Gatrell’s rookie contract to replace McOut’s….maybe Lowe’s contract gone due to trade????Another rookie to take his place hopefully!………this all adds up in my view to another Great team!
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
9:39 am
I don’t know. I’m just very discouraged with him.
As are we all, my friend, regardless of whether one thinks he is hype or hero.
phil
August 29th, 2011
9:40 am
John A
August 29th, 2011
9:14 am
Phil…..you’re absolutely right. As long as JHEY insists his way is the right way, he’ll NEVER be any better than he is now. Andruw only regressed under Bobby, and now we have another cut of the same mold.
*************
You’re kind, but it’s what Jones said that has me truly concerned now. If a hall of famer was trying to talk sense to me, I would have to think hard about listening to what he says. After all, Parrish, Pendleton, FG, Snitker, etc, etc, aren’t anywhere near any halls of fame with which I’m familiar. Chipper may be a lot of things, but he can certainly hit a baseball. Heyward might want to not only listen but starting doing.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
9:41 am
For Bourn? 5 years/43 million. 7 million in 2012. 36 million from 2013-2016. Much like Uggla, I wouldn’t like the extension, but I won’t lose sleep over it. He’s a good player, but he depends on those legs, and I worry about guys like that when they get into their mid-thirties. He turns 30 next winter, so you’d have him through his age 33 year old season.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
9:41 am
@ Crazy – I actually think Andruw would be a fairly productive corner oF’er if he got a chance to play full time . .782, 827 and .868 are his last 3 seasons OPS….. He’s not gonna hit for a high avg, but he gets on base and still slugs it. he’d be a good pickup for an AL team that needs good corner D and some power but doesn’t need him to bat in the top 4 spots in the order.
CB
August 29th, 2011
9:41 am
Crazy,that would be fine with me at the right salary but Gonzo may not be satisfied with that.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
9:43 am
Why would the Braves want that slug [Melky] back on their team?
Maybe there’s a clandestine group operating the FO that has a man-crush on players involved with bat-munching and bat-licking.
MikeInFl
August 29th, 2011
9:43 am
phil, did you read somewhere that Heyward has refused to listen, to Chipper or to the coaching staff?
I’ve never played baseball at a high level, but I’m guessing that there’s more to it than just being told how to do it.
phil
August 29th, 2011
9:43 am
NickB
August 29th, 2011
9:21 am
BTW Phil, they said the same thing about Dave Winfield. Big tall rangy guy who the “experts” said “would never develop with that swing” Yeah, how’d that work out?
He’s very young, most players his age are in AA or lower. So perhaps all of this dramatic jumping to conclusions is a bit premature? Justin Upton took awhile to develop (and he didn’t have a thumb and shoulder injury) the mentioned Winfield didn’t break an .800 OPS til he was 25 either. This idea that young players are supposed to show up and be Pujoles or they are a bust is just silly.
********************
You make a good point, actually. Thinking about Winfield, his swing of long ago does seem Heywardesque as i think back. Perhaps Winfield had a good teacher or mentor to help him out. We’ll see if Heyward is equally as smart.
I don’t, however, think it’s silly to at least consider the possibility that Heyward is, in fact, a bust until he does something to dispel the notion.
phil
August 29th, 2011
9:45 am
reckingball
August 29th, 2011
9:38 am
DOB fan@9:24………”Melky Cabrera(28)”???
Why would the Braves want that slug back on their team?
They gave him his walking papers the day after their season ended last year, for a reason.
Melky sux.
**************
amen.
phil
August 29th, 2011
9:47 am
MikeInFl
August 29th, 2011
9:43 am
phil, did you read somewhere that Heyward has refused to listen, to Chipper or to the coaching staff?
I’ve never played baseball at a high level, but I’m guessing that there’s more to it than just being told how to do it.
******************
No, I read no such thing. He probably IS listening and trying to change some things. My frustration with the guy is showing itself.
I played baseball in the backyard a lot, so I know my stuff….that’s a pathetic joke for those prone to lash out….lol
Mixxo
August 29th, 2011
9:48 am
Phil @ 9:07 –
Thank you!
Sign Bourn…..release Wayward.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
9:49 am
I get the feeling with Bourn all we are getting is speed and defense. Not sure what he is worth but I would wait at least until the middle of next year. No need to sign him after one of his best years. If he repeats we might be sorry but I have a feeling he will regress to a .275 hitter with a lot of speed. I definitely would like the Braves to sign him but not sure he is worth more than 8 million a year much less the 15 million a year that boras will want for him
hdhd
August 29th, 2011
9:49 am
Fast doesn’t slump. Sign him.
CB
August 29th, 2011
9:49 am
I have been watching Melky this season with the Royals, he started the season almost skinny and has obviously gained weight during the season. He is one fat contract away from being huge.
b
August 29th, 2011
9:52 am
We all know the Braves won’t be able to sign Bourn with Boras as his agent.
I’d take Constanza with his speed over any guy we’ve had out there since Andruw.
Georgie has speed and will hit enough
I still don’t understand why it took him so long to get a callup from anyone considering
the stats he has accumulated. Doesn’t seem like he’s been treated fairly.
miami7
August 29th, 2011
9:52 am
yesssssssssss
reckingball
August 29th, 2011
9:53 am
CB 9:49……That’s a good one, and more than likely, the truth.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
9:56 am
Fast doesn’t slump.
But players do, unfortunately.
CrαZy
August 29th, 2011
9:57 am
Braves OF Bandwagon Carousel
Quick to jump on —– (Heyward)
Quick to Jump off —– (Heyward)
Quick to Jump on —– (Constanza)
Quick to jump off??? —– (Constanza)
panamajack
August 29th, 2011
9:57 am
DAP, checked that list, can’t beleive my favorite all time 3B Brooks Robinson isn’t in the top 50, guess defense doesn’t count for much.
dobearsbare
August 29th, 2011
9:59 am
To me, two things come to mind. First, if you’re moving to a new offensive model — and it appears the Braves are — it would make sense to acquire and retain players that fit that model. Second, if the Braves sign Bourn to a five-year deal, less than halfway into it they’re presumably going to have some other major salaries come off the books (Chipper and Derek Lowe). Jurrjens and Hanson obviously are going to be making more money by then, but the $15-$18 million annual salaries just don’t seem all that likely for both of them. I’d guess the Braves will keep one. Likewise, Prado will be in line for a significant pay raise. On the whole, though, it seems like the money will be available for Bourn on the back end. So yeah, I’d go $8 mill. Might even do 10. The disruptive presence he and Constanza have had has made everybody in the lineup better.
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
9:59 am
I don’t, however, think it’s silly to at least consider the possibility that Heyward is, in fact, a bust
Not silly, absolutely. Still, it’s hard to believe that so many smart baseball people could have been so wrong about the guy.
(I include myself in that group, of course, so I have some emotional investment in a return to form, LOL.)
CrαZy
August 29th, 2011
9:59 am
Fast doesn’t slump.
Why hasn’t any teams signed Usain Bolt to play?
Gary O
August 29th, 2011
10:00 am
Braves and Scott Boras will have plenty of opportunities to get to know each other, because Boras represents Bourn, Hanson, and JJ, and I doubt if we keep all 3.
Once in a while, a player will ignore Boras, and make their own decisions. Just recently, Weaver wanted to stay in LA since he grew up close by, so rather than waiting until free agency to get the big money contract, he settled for a more team friendly deal. I think Andruw also gave the Braves a discount on one of his early contracts. I wonder if Bourn will be inclined to take an extension, rather than wait until free agency in 2013.
Personally, if Bourn will take 5 years, $45 mil, I would sign him to an extension now, buying out his last arbitration year. But if Boras insists on more money, I would let him play next year and see what happens.
Fish Bisch
August 29th, 2011
10:01 am
We should be ok even though we were swept in a one game series by the lousy mets. So now the Phillies are the only team having not been swept in a series?
Random
August 29th, 2011
10:01 am
chuck (August 29th, 2011 6:52 am): “Hoss struggles to stay healthy and holds us hostage for weeks at a time during these spells….as i stated, he’s a helluva player when he’s in there, but we can’t count on him for more than 130 games a year…”
So, you’re saying those 130 games don’t count in the final standings?
Who now would you get that would be the equal of Chipper Jones at 3B? Martin Prado?
Are you seriously suggesting that aged veteran Jones is unfairly blocking young sensation Prado at 3B?
Okay — well then.
Who now would you get that would be the equal of Martin Prado in LF?
At what cost?
MikeInFl
August 29th, 2011
10:04 am
So now the Phillies are the only team having not been swept in a series?
Didn’t they just lose a 1-game series to the Marlins?
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
10:04 am
Fish Bisch, I’m pretty sure we got swept in a 2 game series in Arizona as well. I think they are talking about sweeps in 3 or 4 game series
Ralph
August 29th, 2011
10:07 am
Only reason it took so long for Constanza to get called up is that Frank Wren doesn’t read this blog.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 29th, 2011
10:07 am
The phrase “speed doesn’t slump” is one of my pet peeves for some reason…
b
August 29th, 2011
10:08 am
Are you all crazy?
Boras isn’t going to let Bourn sign for 8 or 9 million for five yrs. at 40-45 million.
You can FORGET it.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
10:10 am
As far as Bourn goes….. I’m a little gun shy about a 5th year. He’s a great defender and takes good routes to balls. Which means that his defense shouldn’t be hurt too bad if he loses a step or so. However, his lack of power means that he needs to steal bases at an 80% clip to make up for it. Now, many players, tho they get slower, become much better at stealing bases as they age. So, this may turn out to not be a big deal either. I would almost rather go 4 yrs $48mill than 5 yrs $50 mill. Let him depart at age 34 , or worry about an extension then.
Oh and btw, Constanza was a very bad defender in CF in the minor leagues. he’s avg at a corner spot, but plain bad in center, do noooo Constanza as a starting CF’er. as previously stated. His cieling is to be a quality 4th OF’er who can spell all three OF positions. Which is very valuable to have.
NickB
August 29th, 2011
10:12 am
@ Ralph- Yeah ” Speed doesn’t slump” irritates me too. because it does. If you aren’t getting on base the slow walk back to dugout is the same for everyone!
Arkansas Transplant
August 29th, 2011
10:12 am
I don’t see any need to break the bank on Bourn. I might consider some progressive contract.. maybe pay more up front with less on the end. That way we pay the most while we have the payroll room at the same time allowing growth in the future. Something along the lines of 10 in 2012, 9 in 2013, 9 in 2014, 8 in 2015 and 7 in 2016.
PMC
August 29th, 2011
10:13 am
Considering how long it’s taken to find a remotely acceptable center fielder. Yes, a resounding yes, pay the man his money.
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
10:14 am
Not silly, absolutely. Still, it’s hard to believe that so many smart baseball people could have been so wrong about the guy.
I mean, it’s not like the guy hasn’t found success at the major league level yet, kinda like Matt Wieters(although he’s been better this year).
Heyward was nothing short of incredible last year. He had a bad June. That was it. He’ll return to stardom next year with some mechanical work and rest for his shoulder this offseason
NickB
August 29th, 2011
10:15 am
btw Constanza’s last 10 games .185avg / .241 OBP/ .185 SLG……. the scouting reports have gotten out I fear
Ralph
August 29th, 2011
10:15 am
NickB — Your @ing the wrong person!
ncscoots
August 29th, 2011
10:16 am
would almost rather go 4 yrs $48mill than 5 yrs $50 mill.
Dunno, I think that fifth year is pretty important from the player’s perspective, moreso than the annual dollars.
Fish Bisch
August 29th, 2011
10:16 am
Thanks for clearing up my swepping issues!
raleighbravefan
August 29th, 2011
10:16 am
IF it’s all about money, we probably won’t be able to keep him. It’s totally up to what the player wants. Maybe he will decide he really likes Atlanta.
Jered Weaver told Boras that he wanted to stay with Angels, and to work it out. HE DID what his client wanted. They signed an extension, without going to free agency, and gave a significant “hometown discount” to do so. If it’s more about money, Boras will do his job, and get him the top $$$ the markert will bare.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
10:18 am
would almost rather go 4 yrs $48mill than 5 yrs $50 mill.
I’ll take the 5th year at 2 million
raleighbravefan
August 29th, 2011
10:18 am
Speed slumps with age. If that’s all you got, long contracts don’t usually work out well in the long term.
DawgDad
August 29th, 2011
10:20 am
Sure, it would be great to have him here. His offensive game is akin to Lou Brock and his defensive game is akin to Curt Flood, for those of you old enough to remember them. But the guy is a Boras client, which means the Braves get screwed no matter what. This winter, I’d offer him a five year contract starting at something just under what he’d get in arbitration escalating up to what Boras might think he’s worth at peak value, with player/club options in the latter year. That’s a better deal for him security-wise than arbitration, and if they don’t bite TRADE HIM IMMEDIATELY. Get what you can for him this winter, when he still has some value on the market, and move on.
Sorry to be so cynical, but I just don’t see how the Braves can possibly not get burned by a Boras client.
reckingball
August 29th, 2011
10:21 am
Doesn’t an agent always do what his client wants him to do?
Doc Holliday
August 29th, 2011
10:22 am
I hate to see Lowe go against the phillies…….disappointing.
skep
August 29th, 2011
10:23 am
The guy has been on the team for a month and we are talking about another long term contract. They rarely work out for the Braves or any other team. Boras will out negotiate Wren and we will overpay. When Bourn turns 30 it is downhill very fast for most of the players especially those with fat guaranteed contracts. Let’s give it some time. 80 million only goes so far.
Sopheee
August 29th, 2011
10:23 am
Melky…GAH!
NickB
August 29th, 2011
10:24 am
@ Ralph, I was agreeing with you!!
Randy S
August 29th, 2011
10:24 am
And the stellar show announcements for the newly reopened Georgia Theatre continue. Another couple of DOB favs:
Lucinda Williams – Oct 24
Robert Earl Keen – Nov 6
NickB
August 29th, 2011
10:25 am
Oh it was McFann…. my bad, !
Efrim
August 29th, 2011
10:25 am
Bourn won’t sign an extension for anything less than 4 years. It’s like Uggla. No way he is signing for an added three years. I think 9 million per is reasonable for the extension years. Then just go off of the arb. salary in 2012. 5 years, 43 million. I bet if that were the offer, Boras would take him to free agency. 5 years 50 million is what he probably thinks he can get him. Too rich for my blood.
bustersonly
August 29th, 2011
10:25 am
I think everone over rates The Scott Boras effect, he doesn’t exactly represent a lot of Conrads does he, he targets the high profile guys who would get big bucks without an agent if they wanted to be bothered with the hassle.
David O'Brien
August 29th, 2011
10:27 am
dobearsbare: The money is there if the Braves want to sign Bourn for $8-10 mill per season. Just a question of whether they’ll spend it for him, whether they’re willing to pay that much for the particular type of player he is. And I’m with you — if I’m a team with those specific needs, a team like the Braves, I’d do it.
DAP
August 29th, 2011
10:27 am
michael Why do baseball writers continue to list batting average first when on base percentage and slugging percentage are much better statistics for judging how good a player is? Peirre on base percentage has always been poor, as opposed to Bourne’s,
pierre’s OBP has not always been poor.
and batting average tells you something different than OBP. cant we use both?
Ted
August 29th, 2011
10:28 am
Bourn isn’t a $10MM/year player. Plus, with speed players, there’s great risk paying big money for a player in their early 30s. Besides Pierre, another comparable-type of player is Figgins – who at 31 got 4 years and $36MM for similar skills, but with above average defense at 3B instead of CF. And you can see how badly his age 32-33 seasons have been.
As such, I would not go more than 4 years, but preferably 3 with an option for a 4th. I also wouldn’t go much above $8MM in average annual value – though since 2012 would be his final arb year, this still can be sold as comparable to Figgins/Pierre contracts.
So, perhaps 1) 4 years for $32MM (maybe $34MM) – $6MM in 2012, $2MM signing bonus and $8MM/year for 2013-2015 (or increase each year by $500K for $34MM contract). Or 2) 3 years for $25MM – $6.5MM in 2012, $1.5MM signing bonus, $8MM/year for 2013-2014 and $9MM option with $1MM buy-out. In both cases, he gets more money in 2012 than he would in arb ($8MM) and amortized signing bonus means he’s being paid $8.5-9MM on the books. In both cases, the Braves lessen their risk that he collapses at the end. And should he be the unusual speed player, he hits FA again at age 33 and still able to score another nice contract.
But, if he refuses, let him play out 2012, offer arb and take the two picks if he can find the long-term deal he seeks or else go year-to-year with the guy where he takes all the risk of a bad season. Because after 2012, several other CF of note hit FA – such as Upton and Kemp. Or COL may be willing to trade Fowler as they have CarGo locked up long-term.
At any rate, Bourn is good player but is not irreplacable nor should the team treat him as such. If they can sign him to a fair deal (i.e. around 4 years and $8MM/per), do it. Otherwise, put they should put their financial eggs in other baskets.
JoeFan
August 29th, 2011
10:29 am
Gonzales’ contract has an option year so if the Braves want to wait another year on Pastornicky they can. Would not be surprised to see Pastornicky starting at SS for the Braves at some point next season. Braves are set in CF since Bourn is here for 2012. Beyond 2012, if there is not another answer, then offer him a 5 year deal for $8-$10 million year . Should give the Braves plenty of time to develope a CF internally. They have the money for this with several top heavy salaries coming off the books. If they don’t use the money for Bourn then start the search for quality outfielders including a corner outfielder. Gartrell at AAA may be one answer. Either way the Braves have some time and it looks like the money to make some wise decisions.
timthebrave
August 29th, 2011
10:30 am
Randy S, I just saw the Drive by Truckers there. The Ga Theatre looks and sounds better than it ever has. They also got a cool little bar on the roof to get drinks before the show.
bustersonly
August 29th, 2011
10:30 am
NickB, but I didn’t say anything about speed slumping, you @ed the wrong guy.
Chris Snow
August 29th, 2011
10:31 am
Sorry but I’m still not sold on Constanza yet. There is a reason he was in the minors for so long (see Brooks Conrad). And he hasn’t looked great since he hurt his ankle.