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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
1,264 comments Add your comment
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
1:11 pm
So there was evidence or reason to believe McLouth was so comfortable hitting second that it likely negated any advantages to having Heyward hitting second, if both players performed to reasonable expectations coming into the season? I doubt it.
Payne, aside from the narrow definition of success you have provided in a hypothetical season, my position was intended to describe the reasoning of the Atlanta Braves on CF. The evidence which supports my position on this particular topic was that it described the exact course of action the team took this season. Exact. Your assumptions that these actions would prove to be detrimental to the success of the team this year were negated and proved irrelevant.
DAP
August 30th, 2011
1:12 pm
anders For years it was dismissed by most on here as of low relevance to run scoring.
i think you have “most” confused with shaun. i mean…he posts alot, but hes only one person.
noliee
August 30th, 2011
1:13 pm
I call this the “Wags Effect”. Meaning, if we’ve got it, it must be good….Anders
and I call your posts like this one the Troll Hyperbole Effect
noliee
August 30th, 2011
1:15 pm
IStolen bases do have a relatively low correlation to runs scored. Mets lead the league in SB most all the time and almost never outscore the Braves. any number of other stats correlate higher:HR,OBP,S%, OBP
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
1:15 pm
Anders, Beltran and Pence are both corner-outfielders at this point and neither add as much value defensive as Bourn. Plus Bourn likely adds about as much offensive value as Beltran or Pence, when you consider positional scarcity.
I would argue that the Phillies might have been better off with Bourn, although they had a center fielder so it would have been rather pointless to try and get him. But Bourn in center and Victorino in left or right, I think, would have added more to the Phillies than Pence.
I do think the Giants would have been better off with Bourn instead of Beltran.
It’s pretty amazing that the Phillies and Giants gave up what they did to get Beltran and Pence and the Braves were able to get Bourn for what they got him for. I don’t think there is as much difference in these three players as it may seem on the surface, just looking at basic offensive numbers.
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
1:15 pm
so, [Teheran's braking ball] aint even average?
I didn’t think so, no. Not ML average. But, for minor league kids, there’s no telling when the light will go on nor what will flip the switch. He could have had a curve-ball epiphany when I wasn’t looking.
And Crazy has been looking. I’m inclined to trust his judgment; at least, until I can see the kid pitch again.
REALITY
August 30th, 2011
1:17 pm
Some of you guys make me sick with all the stats and the expert attitudes. There’s a reason why you’re not getting paid to make these decisions: The guys who are better than you at it already have that job. The guys you’re second guessing. Are you gonna be right sometimes? yes. Are you still just some guy sitting in front of a computer? Yes. You can’t stat cite your way out of that.
Random
August 30th, 2011
1:19 pm
Jimmy (August 30th, 2011 11:14 am): “Nats and Dodgers. We need to go 4-2 in these series – at the very least. Then head to Philly and win that series. If we can get that done, we’ll be in good shape.”
Yep — keep winning series.
“I feel like we’ve got the WC and need to be pushing for the NL East.”
I agree — Braves need to start sweeping some series.
Like the next two series against sub-.500 teams. (Especially since Nats are sub-.375, LA’s sub-.460 on the road.)
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
1:19 pm
2011 Wins Above Replacement, FanGraphs:
Bourn: 3.9
Pence: 3.2
Beltran: 3.7
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
1:19 pm
For years it was dismissed by most on here as of low relevance to run scoring
Anders, I believe this is a mischaracterization of the process. “For years” describes the 5 years the team didn’t make it to the post season, had no left fielder, a revolving door at first base, no reliable right fielder and a deteriorating center field and a pitching staff littered with aging vets and very miss prospects. Speed being the tool that it is was not dismissed as of low relevance to winning as much as it was low on the over all shopping list of needs. Only one blogger on here tends to imply it is of no use at all, but that seems born out of spite for all those who are happy to see it back on the team.
DAP
August 30th, 2011
1:21 pm
shaun I don’t think there is as much difference in these three players as it may seem on the surface, just looking at basic offensive numbers.
there certainly is a difference just looking at basic offensive numbers. bourn evens it out by playing a great CF. thats the only reason they are similar.
and bourn was a great fit for the braves because of their need at that particular position. had they needed a corner OF, pence would have been a better fit, obviously.
richbrave
August 30th, 2011
1:22 pm
97
Fols
August 30th, 2011
1:22 pm
The old……..you guys are sitting in front of a computer comment. I haven’t even seen that posted since like 10 minutes ago!
Hugo
August 30th, 2011
1:23 pm
I’m with Shaun
I’m much happier with the Braves signing Bourn than Pence or Beltran. I think giving away anything for Beltran would have been nuts.
The Phillies didn’t need Bourn. The Braves did. I think Wren did a good job of masking his interests, presumably driving the price up on Pence (not having to worry about the Phillies going after Bourn), and then filling the Braves’ glaring need by giving up…. less than anybody at the deadline?
abeeeewright
August 30th, 2011
1:25 pm
How does Beltran’s WAR help SF right now?
Random
August 30th, 2011
1:27 pm
TennesseePaul (August 30th, 2011 11:20 am): ” [R:] ‘Second, if defense alone saved 100 runs, most of those 100 runs — had they not been saved – would have likely been UNearned runs which would not affect any pitcher’s ERA.’
“That’s not necessarily true. A player without range isn’t assigned an error for not snatching up a ball Ozzie would have reached.”
Okay — fair enough.
Hugo
August 30th, 2011
1:28 pm
I was disappointed seeing the Beltran deal, thinking how much it probably helps the Mets in 2-4 years just for letting go of a guy a little bit early.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
1:28 pm
TennesseePaul, no one says speed is of no use at all. The argument is against this idea that a leadoff hitter must have speed to be legitimately good.
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
1:29 pm
For years it was dismissed by most on here as of low relevance to run scoring.
As usual, wrong on the facts and wrong on the law.
“Most” here (at least, a plurality) revel in the idea of SBs and speedy little chaos-makers. I, for one, certainly haven’t been able to convince the “most” that SBs do not correlate well to runs scored, try as I might, LOL.
Anders
August 30th, 2011
1:30 pm
To all who responded- My comment about how most on here felt speed had low relevance to run scoring was how I recall being answered by many on here when I listed speed as one of the Mets weapons in the prior 3 or 4 years. That’s all. No empirical evidence to share, just 100’s of blog pock marks from those that slung them at me. {:
noliee- Troll? After all this time? You certainly are a hard marker.
Chief pitchanono
August 30th, 2011
1:32 pm
Sure I think you certainly try to sign him and the 8 mil/yr sounds reasonable. He’s certainly worth that to a team who is built like the Braves. I mean he really is a perfect fit with Atlanta. I have allot of confindence in Wren to work out a deal that makes sense, but i don’t believe he will over pay or get into any kind of bidding war. He’s just comeing off a big deal with Uggla and I expect him to do the same with Bourn this winter. In the end it will truly be up to Bourn and rather or not he really wants to be a Brave. If getting top dollar is the most important thing to him then he won’t be signing with us. But if his prorities lie along the lines with being comfortable here (which most players are) and being on a winning team that has the potential to be successfull for many years to come, and recieveing a fair salary in the process then he will probably be a Brave for a long time. Hopefully he ends up loveing Atlanta.
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
1:33 pm
No empirical evidence to share, just 100’s of blog pock marks from those that slung them at me.
Confirmation bias, prolly. Just “feels” like hundreds.
Hugo
August 30th, 2011
1:34 pm
Maybe somebody needs to convince major league defenses that SB don’t correlate with runs scored, because I feel like I can witness an obvious stress on defenses when guys like Bourn, Reyes, etc. are on base, or just when they put the ball in play. If they’re not worried about a run being scored, I don’t know what all the fuss is about.
McFann :Ô: :Ô:
August 30th, 2011
1:39 pm
Jimmy good stats. Maybe I’m focusing in on one particular game.
Thanks! Yeah, that could be…he’s had a couple rough games, but mostly he does a solid job back there.
Does kinda feel like Opening Day tonight at that! Or at least the second “half” opener!
DAP
August 30th, 2011
1:40 pm
scoots I, for one, certainly haven’t been able to convince the “most” that SBs do not correlate well to runs scored, try as I might,
right there is another problem, isnt it? folks use the words “speed” and “stolen bases” interchangeably as if they mean the same thing. they do not.
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
1:41 pm
If they’re not worried about a run being scored, I don’t know what all the fuss is about.
They’re trying to be optimal.
Truthfully, there are plenty of game scenarios where speed and the threat of a SB have importance. But that’s a tactical issue, whereas the thought of using SBs as a primary offensive weapon is a strategic issue. I try to keep the two things separate in discussion, but I’m not always successful in making the point.
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
1:47 pm
right there is another problem, isnt it? folks use the words “speed” and “stolen bases” interchangeably as if they mean the same thing. they do not.
Yes. Wren speaks of getting faster and more athletic, which immediately spawns a slew of posts that he wants to “change the offensive model of the team”.
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
1:49 pm
The argument is against this idea that a leadoff hitter must have speed to be legitimately good.
Then you have failed to provide sufficient evidence which would directly refute the definition of “legitimate lead-off hitter” as not possessing excellent on base ability and speed/base running abilities. You have, however, provided ample evidence that a sufficient lead-off hitter should get on base and be of any foot speed.
JRW
August 30th, 2011
1:50 pm
Shaun’s Ideal team would consist of twenty five, 23 year old players with a WAR of 3+ that earn league minimum right out of the minors.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
1:52 pm
ncscoots and DAP, no doubt speed is helpful on offense. I haven’t seen anyone argue that it isn’t. It’s just that there are lot of other skills that are much more important and can make much more of an impact. Speed is much more helpful on the defensive side of the ball, especially for center fielders and other outfielders.
From 2003 to last season, the Braves were one of the better offensive teams in the NL over that span. Even from 2006 (the first season without Furcal) through last season, the Braves were one of the top offensive teams in the NL; only the Phillies and Rockies scored more runs over that span. This idea that we commented on every now and then that the team has lacked something important, namely speed, and that has cost them over the past several seasons is just not true. If a team gets on base and slugs, they are going to score, no matter how fast or slow their players are.
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
1:54 pm
twenty five, 23 year old players with a WAR of 3+ that earn league minimum right out of the minors.
The Marlins might be as close to that as you can get, in the real world. Wonder how that’s working out?
Hugo
August 30th, 2011
1:56 pm
ncsoots
With all due respect, because i do have confidence in your ability to make a point, what’s the difference between tactics and strategies?
raleighbravefan
August 30th, 2011
1:57 pm
Carroll – Thanks for the tip on Moylan. If I can get away soon enough, I may go check it out.
DAP
August 30th, 2011
1:58 pm
Hugo Maybe somebody needs to convince major league defenses that SB don’t correlate with runs scored
seems like the only way to really know is to find teams with identical production except for SB, and see how they compare. hard to be sure, since that never ever happens in real life.
some folks cite teams who steal bases and how their runs scored are low. how about without the SB? could be even lower.
everyone agrees (i think) that getting on base and slugging (extra bases) are the most important. but “speed” and “stolen bases” (two separate things) are weapons, even if they are smaller ones.
Anders
August 30th, 2011
1:58 pm
Yes. Wren speaks of getting faster and more athletic (nscoots)
Not exactly a tall order considering the lumbering bunch they’ve marched out there the last couple of years.
Hugo
August 30th, 2011
2:00 pm
The Marlins might be as close to that as you can get, in the real world. Wonder how that’s working out?
Speaking of the Marlins, how have they done since F.G. left? I know they weren’t world-beaters before, but they made some impressive runs (wasn’t it last years they won their first 13? 17?). I think Fredi did well with what he had there. Thought so before it was rumored he was coming back to the braves. They been pretty consistently terrible since he left, and I think they’re missing him there.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
2:01 pm
TennesseePaul, a great leadoff hitter would possess lots of skills. A great leadoff hitter would possess elite on-base abilities, speed, some power. A legit lead-off hitter is any hitter that can get on base at a great rate, roughly 40 percent of the time historically, give or take some percentage points. Any such hitter is a legit leadoff option, no matter the foot speed. A sufficient leadoff hitter is any hitter that can get on base at a fairly decent rate, maybe around 35-38 percent of the time, no matter the foot speed.
Foot speed, on offense, is more useful in front of high singles hitters, so ideally you want fast players hitting around 6th or 7th in the order; unless of course they are also your best on-base guys or your best on-base and slugging guys.
DAP
August 30th, 2011
2:01 pm
shaun It’s just that there are lot of other skills that are much more important and can make much more of an impact.
a statement that i have not seen anyone argue with. but you still argue about it.
Kat
August 30th, 2011
2:03 pm
‘@jonmorosi (Jon Morosi) #Braves are looking for bench upgrades before tomorrow’s deadline, sources say.’
Whomever those sources may be….
Hugo
August 30th, 2011
2:03 pm
seems like the only way to really know is to find teams with identical production except for SB, and see how they compare. hard to be sure, since that never ever happens in real life.
Better idea…. And not to be a smart@$$, but think about it this way…
Use one team. One year they defend against stolen bases, and the next year they don’t. Think we’d see a marked difference in runs given up?
Anders
August 30th, 2011
2:04 pm
Better idea…. And not to be a smart@$$, but think about it this way…
Use one team. One year they defend against stolen bases, and the next year they don’t. Think we’d see a marked difference in runs given up? (Hugo)
All this does is confirm how REALLY bad the first idea was.
keylargo
August 30th, 2011
2:06 pm
Julio Teheran was named International League rookie of the year
Second year in a row Braves have taken IL rookie of the year after Freddie Freeman did it last year. Carroll R.
Last year Heyward was 2nd in the ROY and this year Kimbrel and Freeman will be 1st and 2nd. That’s 3 of the best 4 Rookies in the last two years and you have to like the odds that it will be a Brave again in 2012 for ROY.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
2:07 pm
Shaun’s Ideal team would consist of twenty five, 23 year old players with a WAR of 3+ that earn league minimum right out of the minors.
JRW, Would anyone not want a team like that? I’ve never said that, but sure, I’ll take that sort of team. Oh, shame on me for having no issues with a team full of good, cheap, young players.
abeeeewright
August 30th, 2011
2:09 pm
abeeeewright says that the Braves are looking for bench upgrades before the Aug. 31 deadline. They would be idiots NOT to be looking.
Whether they find a deal that can be worked out is another matter.
JRW
August 30th, 2011
2:10 pm
ESPN posted their current ROY standings (which mean nothing) as
1. Kimbrel
2. Freeman
3. Worley
4. Gee
5. Barney
abeeeewright
August 30th, 2011
2:12 pm
Few teams would WANT 25 23-year olds.
There is considerable to be said for veteran leadership. “Been there – done that” can help younger players develop the “soft” skill sets necessary to handle the pressures of a 162 game season.
Experience counts for something … in some cases, a lot.
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
2:13 pm
Hugo, think of “strategy” as the overall plan for scoring runs. Are you a fan of Earl Weaver or Gene Mauch? Do you prefer playing for the chance of a big inning, or would you prefer to peck away? That would not be dependent on any given game situation, but rather how you plan to play before the game starts.
Tactics involve initiating or responding to a given set of circumstances during the game in the furtherance of the mission (to win the game). Bunt him over, or swing away? Steal a bag, or hit and run? Run 3-2, or hold the runners?
How’s that?
Hugo
August 30th, 2011
2:13 pm
JRW, Would anyone not want a team like that? I’ve never said that, but sure, I’ll take that sort of team. Oh, shame on me for having no issues with a team full of good, cheap, young players.
Problem is, then you have to sign them all to big contracts at the same time, or lose them all around the same time. Or do you just keep the young talent cycling through? Like the Pirates? The Marlins?
Although i think a good mix is best, I’ll take a team of proven vets against your youngsters and their WAR any day.
cabravesfan
August 30th, 2011
2:14 pm
Morning all!
Some fun pics from Dan Uggla’s charity event last night- He, Beachy, Freddie, Jonny, Kimmie, Linebrink, Ske, and Mac served at Morton’s… (couple of GREAT pics of Mac
)
http://buckhead.patch.com/articles/braves-at-bat-for-charity-in-buckhead#photo-7560900
JRW
August 30th, 2011
2:15 pm
Shaun – I said that in jest. The point is every team needs to have a good mix of young players as well as veterans. And hopefully they all gel into a WS champion. There are six teams this year that are proving to have a more than legitimate shot at that goal and the Braves are one of them. At this point that is all a fan can ask for.
Carroll Rogers
August 30th, 2011
2:20 pm
new blog is up!
cricket
August 30th, 2011
2:22 pm
nice story, CPR classes should be mandatory for everyone -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc-sports-bog/post/nats-usher-performs-heimlich-on-choking-child/2011/08/29/gIQAIcERnJ_blog.html
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
2:22 pm
Hugo, I’ll take talent. I don’t care if it’s a team full of guys who are 23, 33 or 43.
The problem is there are not enough good 23-year-olds in any given year, much less enough in one organization.
Murph
August 30th, 2011
2:24 pm
I do think Uggla’s first-half performance may have been partly due to some age-related decline
This does not compute. Uggla has gotten older as the season progressed, not younger. Yet, the older he grows this season, the better he seems to play. How can this be?
Was his normally slow start magnified due to age? If so then I’d expect him to play at a level more in keeping with his average, only lower due to being older. Yet somehow he’s not only playing at a typical Uggla power level… he’s exceeded it.
See nolie and Lew and the rest of you old guys on here. There is hope. Just because you’re old and beat up and it takes you 20 minutes to pee in the morning doesn’t mean that you’ve got one foot in the grave. Nope. It means that your best days might still be ahead of you.
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
2:25 pm
Payne, a great lead-off hitter would possess on-base abilities, speed/base running acumen, and some power. A legit lead-off hitter would posses on-base abilities and speed/base running acumen. A sufficient lead-off hitter would possess on-base abilities. Any hitter on base abilities is a sufficient lead-off option, no matter the foot speed. A legitimate lead-off hitter is any hitter who possesses on base abilities and also possesses speed/base running acumen. A great lead-off hitter is any hitter who can get on base, possesses speed/base running acumen and has some power.
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
2:28 pm
seems like the only way to really know is to find teams with identical production except for SB
Check the Yankes and Red Sox this year. I think they are pretty close in runs scored, OBP, slugging, etc., certainly first and second in most offensive categories. Yanks are first is SBs, Bosox are 8 (middle of the pack). So, it appears that while there is a significant difference in the two teams in that offensive area, it has not caused a corresponding difference in their offensive output.
(Yes, I know this ia a single instance, and could just be a fluke. I’m not submitting it for academic study, LOL.)
Hugo
August 30th, 2011
2:28 pm
scoots
Well i think i disagree with the vocab you employ, but that’s not important. I also disagree with the idea of having a plan of how you’ll try to score before the game (although not completely). I think you’re always trying to decide how best to try to get the runs in with regard to the certain situation you’re presently faced with.
Do I want the big inning or to peck away? I WANT the big inning…every inning. That being said, I don’t think any manager wants to rely on that without having any tools for small ball. So instead of making a plan for how to score runs before a game, I think I would want to build a team that gives me the most tools for scoring in any situation we might face. That way, hopefully we can score some no matter what. I think some teams rely one or the other of these extremes because their teams have limited tools.
I think a team that can steal bases has a huge advantage with manufacturing runs the small ball way. That puts them one step closer to having well-rounded, complete offense. Teams with offenses that can do it all and do it well WIN MORE GAMES. Maybe the SCORING MORE RUNS didn’t show up in stats because of low scoring games, etc.
Championship teams may not have prolific base stealers, but they usually have well-rounded offenses, and I feel like good SB guys who can get on and put it to use kind of give you an easier road to achieving this kind of offense.
Carroll Rogers
August 30th, 2011
2:31 pm
Rodney Derrick….if you’re looking for some fresh air, go to the DAP….Can always tape the game on TV!
Hugo
August 30th, 2011
2:32 pm
Murph
This does not compute.
Ha, I love it. I also agree.
Hugo
August 30th, 2011
2:37 pm
I think we can kind of go with a Natural Selection type theory for SB leading to more runs. If it didn’t help, you wouldn’t see much of it. It does help, so teams keep trying it. How often do runners slide into first base? Sometimes, but not much. My theory? it’s because unless you’re trying to avoid a tag, it doesn’t help at first base. If it did help, you’d see a lot of it.
Don in Houston
August 30th, 2011
2:39 pm
I’ve been keeping up with Michael Bourn’s career since he played baseball for the University of Houston. He has developed into a superb centerfielder and with his speed and timing is the best base-stealer in Major League Baseball. More importantly, his hitting has finally come around. He draws walks and hits for average, and would be the ideal leadoff hitter on any team. I hate that the Astros traded Bourn and Hunter Pence — our two best players. Our organization is going downhill fast. If the Braves are smart, they will do whatever it takes to keep Bourn on the team. I expect he will haunt the Astros in years to come the same way that our trading Joe Morgan to Cincinnati hurt Houston back in the ’70s.
noliee
August 30th, 2011
2:50 pm
how ’bout the fact that the Mets steal two or three times as many bases as we do every year but we almost always outscore them. If SB were so important, a 2 to 1 excess should guarantee better scoring…It does not.
Popi
August 30th, 2011
3:50 pm
With McClouth and KK coming off the payroll and young inexpensive arms on the mound, why can’t we sign Bourne for 8-10 mil.
KnightInATL
August 30th, 2011
7:47 pm
C’mon Jurrjens…Sweep The Leg.