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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
1,264 comments Add your comment
Lew
August 30th, 2011
11:11 am
Bourn’s hometown is Houston, but it’s not likely that Houston will see a winning team in the near future, much less a team destined to hit the playoffs for Bourn’s entire Free Agent signing. The Braves, however……..
Random
August 30th, 2011
11:11 am
Coach (2011 Fredi G. a go!) (August 29th, 2011 5:58 pm): ”Statistical proof that Ozzie Smith is the greatest of all time at his position. Anyone who has ever seen him play knows this to be true. Bill James once told Peter Gammons that Ozzie saved his team over 100 runs per season. That’s the difference between a 3.50 and a 4.30 ERA for a pitcher.”
“Statistical proof”, eh?
Two objections:
First, let’s say an MLB team plays 162 games in a season – not much of a stretch, that – and that (to simply this f’rinstance) there are nine innings in each game (ignoring extra-inning and rain-shortened games, etc).
That would be 1,458 innings. One hundred earned runs saved over 1,458 innings would make a difference in ERA of only 0.617, not 0.80 (4.30 minus 3.50). That’s (at most) the difference between a 3.50 and a 4.17 ERA for a pitcher. (But see below.)
Second, if defense alone saved 100 runs, most of those 100 runs — had they not been saved – would have likely been UNearned runs which would not affect any pitcher’s ERA.
JRW
August 30th, 2011
11:11 am
Not at all Lew, But HR’s aside he is a pretty complete CFer
JerseyGil
August 30th, 2011
11:13 am
Lew…yes Chipper & Estrada are ok…they are in higher Groung in the walk…but i have about 35 binder full of Card…Clemente, Mantle, Yogi, Mathew, Most of all Braves from 60.70,80,90….Chipper first rounder high school card are ok…
JRW
August 30th, 2011
11:13 am
My point about the “Home Town Discount” was that he hasn’t been here long enough to worry about that. I think he goes to the highest bidder. Has worked his way to this point in his career and I just don’t see him in particular giving any discounts. Just my opinion.
Jimmy
August 30th, 2011
11:14 am
Nats and Dodgers. We need to go 4-2 in these series – at the very least. Then head to Philly and win that series. If we can get that done, we’ll be in good shape.
I feel like we’ve got the WC and need to be pushing for the NL East.
Lew
August 30th, 2011
11:14 am
JRW- Yes, he is. Just never expected him to hit for that kind of power. Thought he was more a doubles and triples guy with a good average and OBP, lots of speed and SOME power. He’s turned into a beast.
Carroll Rogers
August 30th, 2011
11:15 am
Julio Teheran was named International League rookie of the year as well as the league’s most valuable pitcher….announced this morning. Teheran is leading the IL with 15 wins, a 2.22 ERA and a .227 opponents’ batting average.
Second year in a row Braves have taken IL rookie of the year after Freddie Freeman did it last year. First pitcher of the year since team moved to Gwinnett.
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
11:15 am
What is a “legitimate lead-off hitter”? As long as a guy can get on base well, he’s a legitimate leadoff hitter, contrary to what tradition tells you about speed being the primary thing to look for in a leadoff hitter.
There you go again Payne. You’ve dismissed speed entirely out of hand due to its association with your preconceived ills of “tradition”. Speed and OBP need not be mutually exclusive. Enhancing the traditional view with statistical analysis would tell a team to look for a fast guy who can get on base and steal with a 75%+ success rate. It would highlight the ideal lead-off hitter and, if none could be found for the proper price, what to look for in the next best thing.
raleighbravefan
August 30th, 2011
11:16 am
JRW – Agreed. I hope Atlanta becomes his “adopted” hometown. there’s not much future to playing in Houston any time soon.
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
11:17 am
Making generalized assumptions about a specific player isn’t very smart. For example, “30+ players often lose bat speed as they age, ergo, Bourn will lose bat speed in the next two years”.
The smarter guy would first look at the components of Bourn’s swing, and isolate on which components might most be affected by age, and THEN decide if the guy’s performance might degrade with age, and, if so, how quickly.
But a blanket statement that he’ll be league-average in two years because of age? Huh-uh.
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
11:20 am
Second, if defense alone saved 100 runs, most of those 100 runs — had they not been saved – would have likely been UNearned runs which would not affect any pitcher’s ERA.
That’s not necessarily true. A player without range isn’t assigned an error for not snatching up a ball Ozzie would have reached.
However, I would ask if this “100 runs a season” saved by Ozzie was 100 more than an average short stop or simply a total of 100 runs saved. The impact of Ozzie over an average guy is certainly large, but the statement doesn’t clarify the magnitude of that impact.
DC Brave
August 30th, 2011
11:22 am
Can I just say how stoked I am about being able to go to a game in Turner Field on Saturday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
CrαZy
August 30th, 2011
11:30 am
Julio Teheran was named International League rookie of the year as well as the league’s most valuable pitcher
Yeah, I think it’s pretty clear that Julio Teheran will be in the rotation next year.
abeeeewright
August 30th, 2011
11:32 am
ncscoots, August 30th, 2011, 11:17 am … “The smarter guy would first look at the components of Bourn’s swing, and isolate on which components might most be affected by age,…
Alas, this is a deterministic argument. I.e., that the body is a biomechanical system governed by the laws of physics.
“Cause and effect” are antithetical to the statistical argument, which requires many unmodeled effects whose cumulative impact follows a probability distribution.
Since the subject of biomechanics is “hard” and the subject of statistics is “easy,” you’re not going to win too many converts with your heresy.
RemoW
August 30th, 2011
11:33 am
Random said: “Second, if defense alone saved 100 runs, most of those 100 runs — had they not been saved – would have likely been UNearned runs which would not affect any pitcher’s ERA.”
I have to disagree with that item. There is no way to know how many of those saved 100 runs would be unearned. Obviously some number would be, but the 2 steps Smith had on Ripken means he gets to balls that Ripken would not have even got a glove near. If Ripken doesn’t get near the ball that is a clean hit that Smith would turn into an out.
Andruw in his prime would regularly have over 100 more chances then any other Center fielder in the game. In AJ’s case those were outs, on other teams hits.
Brooklyn Braves Brawler
August 30th, 2011
11:35 am
Got some real roster decisions next year, interested to see what Fran Wren has up his sleeve. Big game tonight, the first game off a long layoff is not always good one. JJ needs to get off to a good clean start the first 3 innings and let the free-swinging Nats get themselves out.
Jay Dubu
August 30th, 2011
11:36 am
Vacation’s over!!!
Let’s get to cracking!!
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
11:36 am
Exactly RemoW. Great defensive players while reducing reach on errors, are largely great because they are stealing hits with regularity. You never see hitters staring out at that amazing defender muttering “That should have been an error”
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
11:40 am
Since the subject of biomechanics is “hard” and the subject of statistics is “easy,” you’re not going to win too many converts with your heresy.
Luckily, conversion is not my mission. It’s enough if only I alone know the truth.
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
11:41 am
Since the subject of biomechanics is “hard” and the subject of statistics is “easy,” you’re not going to win too many converts with your heresy.
Ah, but the study of political science will tell you to construct the topic as an argument between evil and good, then assign your point to good and all else to evil. That is typically sufficient to convert a majority, or at least a plurality.
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
11:42 am
Yeah, I think it’s pretty clear that Julio Teheran will be in the rotation next year.
Let’s hope his curve ball progresses from Junior League to big league by then, LOL.
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
11:43 am
Let’s hope his curve ball progresses from Junior League to big league by then
I recall hoping for similar with Kimbrel’s command. That seemed to turn out alright.
abeeeewright
August 30th, 2011
11:44 am
I wouldn’t be surprised if Teheran gets a start or two after September call-ups. If Hanson is down for the season and the playoffs, Braves are getting closer to the edge with their rotation (Hudson, Lowe, dinged up Jurrjens, rookie Beachy, rookie Minor). Might want to see how Teheran fares in a start in a playoff hunt to estimate whether you could throw him out there in the post-season (if it becomes necessary).
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
11:45 am
Ah, but the study of political science will tell you to construct the topic as an argument between evil and good, then assign your point to good and all else to evil.
Shaun works for Fox News??!!??
onthego
August 30th, 2011
11:45 am
Fine reading, good info. If he fits the budget, he sure fits the lineup, and hopefully a good clubhouse fit.
CrαZy
August 30th, 2011
11:46 am
Let’s hope his curve ball progresses from Junior League to big league by then
Where did you see that he was having problems with his curve?
abeeeewright
August 30th, 2011
11:46 am
TennesseePaul, August 30th, 2011, 11:41 am … “Ah, but the study of political science will tell you …”
I’m an engineer, so I didn’t read any further than this.<g>
Tommy T
August 30th, 2011
11:46 am
” Might want to see how Teheran fares in a start in a playoff hunt to estimate whether you could throw him out there in the post-season (if it becomes necessary).” – abeeeewright
Might not be a bad idea to let Delgado take a turn, either. His last start turned out OK.
Lew
August 30th, 2011
11:47 am
There’s always going to be a degree of “we can do better for less money” at work on any scenario. Concentrating on this aspect is not going to get much done. What needs to be answered is are there other available options (apparently not), are there cheaper options (not that we’ve found to this point), is Bourn a fit for the team and does he provide what we’ve needed for years (absolutely), will he be “too old at the end of the contract (not if they give him a 4-5 year deal) and can the Braves afford him (apparently they can).
Do the deal and be done with it.
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
11:48 am
I’ve been thoroughly impressed with Beachy. I’m eager to watch his career unfold. I’m not sure where this guy will go, but I’ve become less concerned that he might be a mere flash-in-the-pan with a good story.
b
August 30th, 2011
11:49 am
shaun, Gregor and Young don’t have Constanza’s speed.
I’m sorry if you don’t understand that.
Poor comparisons.
raleighbravefan
August 30th, 2011
11:49 am
Gwinett Braves in Durham tonight to play the Bulls (big three pitchers not throwing tonight)
5 games (Thursday – Monday) for Mississippi against Carolina mudcats this weekend.
I probably should try to catch some games. Both stadiums are about 20 minute drive from my house.
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
11:51 am
Where did you see that he was having problems with his curve?
Just going by what I’ve seen of him in the minors. It’s his third-best pitch, and I would not call it ML-ready.
Minor league pitchers with a superb changeup (and his qualifies) can often overpower minor league hitters with it, because they just don’t see such a thing all that much. But he’ll need at least an average breaking ball to fulfill his potential in the bigs.
raleighbravefan
August 30th, 2011
11:52 am
Plenty of interesting players on AAA roster, not so many at AA (or at least not many I am familiar with, with the obvious exception of KK, of course).
Tommy T
August 30th, 2011
11:52 am
“shaun, Gregor and Young don’t have Constanza’s speed.
I’m sorry if you don’t understand that.
Poor comparisons.” – b
Can’t believe I’m saying this, but I think Shaun’s comparison is apt. What Constanza brings to a team is similar to what Young/Blanco bring. Constanza is better at those things than the other two, but in the long run, still a fourth OF’er.
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
11:52 am
I’m an engineer, so I didn’t read any further than this.
Ha!
Shaun works for Fox News??!!??
Or MSNBC. When I flip through the channels I usually have my polarized shades on. If I lay one way, MSNBC is completely blocked out. The other way Fox News is blocked out. SyFy tends to get through no matter what and because of such I learned that over-sized piranhas have a insatiable taste for South Florida high-rise buildings.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
11:54 am
TennesseePaul, I’m not saying speed and OBP are mutually exclusive. I’m saying speed is not enough to make a guy a legit leadoff hitter. And a guy can be a legit leadoff hitter without speed. Chipper would be a legit leadoff hitter if given a chance in that spot. Would never happen but he would be better than a lot of fast guys.
As it relates to Bourn, I think in a couple of seasons, there is a good chance Bourn is going to be a rather mediocre on-base guy, so therefore I think there is a good chance he won’t be a good leadoff hitter.
noliee
August 30th, 2011
11:56 am
Minor league pitchers with a superb changeup (and his qualifies) can often overpower minor league hitters with it, because they just don’t see such a thing all that much. But he’ll need at least an average breaking ball to fulfill his potential in the bigs….scoots
exactly
Tommy T
August 30th, 2011
11:56 am
“SyFy tends to get through no matter what” – TNPaul
I saw a car with a Star Trek sticker in the rear window driving through my southern Middle TN town on Sunday. Must’ve been you!!!
Lew
August 30th, 2011
11:56 am
Ten Paul – Easier to just not watch either one of them. I don’t.
cricket
August 30th, 2011
11:57 am
Do the deal and be done with it.
So you want only one group of people to keep on bitching on this topic in future?
Braves Grrrl
August 30th, 2011
11:58 am
DC Brave – I’m excited for you! I KNOW you will have a great time!
CrαZy
August 30th, 2011
11:59 am
Just going by what I’ve seen of him in the minors.
On paper or with your own eyes?
I’m not a scout nor do I try to be but, to me since the ASB Julio has had a pretty good curve that from where I normally sit (15 rows back behind home) looks pretty sharp. Maybe it’s just a really good looking curve to me hell the best I ever faced was in high school so It might not be that good. We shall see soon I’m sure!
Lew
August 30th, 2011
12:00 pm
cricket- No, I want the team to address a lingering need with a player that fits that particular need. I’ve resigned myself to the fact that there will be wholesale (and maybe retail) bitching no matter which way the decide to go. It’s like heat down south, snow in Vermont and the inability to agree with anything – just a fact of life.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
12:03 pm
Lew, no. I just think most players will be worse in their 30’s than they were in the late 20’s. You are putting words in my mouth with your talk of crippled, on crutches or collecting medicare. Never said that.
Check Bourn’s performance, ages 23-27: 83 OPS+. The last three years his OPS+ is 99, in what could very well be his best seasons. This year, with a 110 OPS+, is his career year. So I think it’s very reasonable to expect something around a league-average offensive performance or slightly worse by about year 2 of his new contract. But he will have a lot more defensive value than most players, so he will be worth it, as long as the Braves don’t have to pay him like an all-star caliber centerfielder.
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
12:04 pm
I’m saying speed is not enough to make a guy a legit leadoff hitter.
I never said it was. But I did define legit lead-off hitter as a guy with speed, OBP, and base-running skills. In that definition, Chipper would not be a legit lead-off hitter. He might be a sufficient lead-off hitter, but not a legit one.
But, back to my statement, Your refusal to allow speed into the discussion on any level, lends an impression that the two are mutually exclusive.
Every time I’ve seen a list of “legit” lead-off hitters around here, it has been guys who, in their prime, could get on base and run. Hence, listing guys who can merely get on base, does not make them “legit lead-off hitters.” It makes them sufficient.
ncscoots
August 30th, 2011
12:04 pm
to me since the ASB Julio has had a pretty good curve that from where I normally sit (15 rows back behind home) looks pretty sharp.
My eyes, Crazy. I wouldn’t make that kind of comment about a kid I hadn’t seen.
However, you’ve seen him more recently than I, I expect. If you like his breaking ball, I’m good with it.
That’s why they’re called “developmental leagues”, after all: kids are supposed to get better.
Was he getting swing-and-misses with it, throwing it for strikes, etc.?
CB
August 30th, 2011
12:05 pm
Me,I want the team to take whatever budget they are given and win many championships with it. See,it is not that complicated.
Jimmy
August 30th, 2011
12:05 pm
As far as Constanza being, at best, a fourth outfielder and Bourn, in a couple of seasons, being a mediocre on base guy…why don’t we let them play themselves into whatever they become.
Speculation and projections mean nothing. For every “I think he’ll be a good player”, there is a “he’s a flash in the pan” guy.
I always that note at how many times the “I think” appears in a post. It reminds me that this is the posters opinon and nothing more. And this is mine.
I think.
noliee
August 30th, 2011
12:06 pm
I haven’t gotten to see Teheran all that much except some video. His curve looks erratic, and that is certainly what most scouting reports say about him. average at best, many say below average
Arkansas Transplant
August 30th, 2011
12:06 pm
JerseyGil, sorry for the damage to those cards… I know how disappointing it can be to have your keepsakes damaged. Hopefully you’ll be able to salvage those that were your favorite.. let me know which ones they were and I might have one I can send you.
Eleven in '11
August 30th, 2011
12:09 pm
“I never said it was. But I did define legit lead-off hitter as a guy with speed, OBP, and base-running skills. In that definition, Chipper would not be a legit lead-off hitter. He might be a sufficient lead-off hitter, but not a legit one.”
I have to agree with that. Could Chipper get on base? Absolutely. But I think a legit leadoff hitter (i.e a Reyes type) brings something more to the table. He brings disruption that from the beginning of the game could get a pitcher out of rhythm and change the entire complexion of the game. There’s not really a stat for that though, so I guess it doesn’t count.
Carroll Rogers
August 30th, 2011
12:09 pm
raleighbravefan, I think Peter Moylan is supposed to pitch tonight in Durham, his first of back-to-back days. That would be worth a 20-minute drive and a nice night at the DAP
Lew
August 30th, 2011
12:09 pm
Shaun – As usual, you concentrate on the pine needles (my colorful description of what you say) and not the forest . My point is that by age 33 he will hardly be ready for retirement or will have deteriorated to the point of uselessness.
Join the real world. There is just not going to be any way possible to field a team of 23 year old all stars and sometimes it’s necessary to pay a decent market price for what you need. Bourn fits the Braves needs and will be just fine to his early 30’s. Not as if he’ll be going on 40 if signed for four or five years.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
12:11 pm
TennesseePaul, I would argue that if you’re going purely on skills, Chipper is one of the best leadoff options on the team. But a team has to consider where a player might feel comfortable and all the distractions doing something so out-of-the-box would cause, so he would never hit lead-off.
Speed is most valuable in front of singles hitters, so for the most part it’s best to bat the fast guys something like 6th or 7th in a batting order. But of course most of the time it’s not so cut and dry. Sometimes a fast guy is also a great on-base guy so it’s good to put him in the leadoff spot. But if a team has a rather slow guy with an elite on-base ability (and below-average power) and has a fast guy that is merely solid at getting on base, it’s better to go with the elite on-base guy in the leadoff spot.
abeeeewright
August 30th, 2011
12:13 pm
TennesseePaul, August 30th, 2011, 11:52 am … “When I flip through the channels I usually have my polarized shades on. If I lay one way, MSNBC is completely blocked out. The other way Fox News is blocked out.”
If you leave the shades at the 45 degree point, do the news channels resemble the old Charlie Brown teacher?
Teacher: “Wah. Wa-wah. Wah.”
Charlie: “Yes, Mrs. Donovan. I’ll get right on that.”
Teacher: “Wa-wah. Wa-wah-wah-wah.”
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
12:15 pm
Lew, right. The point I’m arguing against is Bourn being a “legitimate lead-off guy” by about year 2 of his next contract. No one said he would be ready for retirement or useless by age 33. I’m saying I think he’ll be a mediocre-or-worse offensive threat and plus defensively in center field. Plenty of value there. But I don’t think he’s a quality option in the leadoff spot by age 33. I think by that time he’ll be best served as a lower-in-the-order hitter that adds more value on defense than anywhere else. Now, that type of player is worth keeping, but only if you pay him the going rate for that type of player.
Freddie t
August 30th, 2011
12:15 pm
Boras will find some stupid owner that will overpay for Bourn. He will be demanding $12 million a year (minimum) for 8 years. Last year the Phillies were offering Jason Werth a $9 million a year contract for 5 years and Boras convinced Washington to pay him $17 million a year for 8 years.
abeeeewright
August 30th, 2011
12:16 pm
Jimmy, August 30th, 2011, 12:05 pm … “I always that note at how many times the “I think” appears in a post. It reminds me that this is the posters opinon and nothing more. And this is mine.
I think.”
Always know sometimes think it’s me, but you know I know and it’s a dream.
I think I know of thee, ah yes, but it’s all wrong.
That is I think I disagree.
CrαZy
August 30th, 2011
12:17 pm
If you like his breaking ball, I’m good with it.
Don’t be good with something I said…. that’s a mighty dangerous thing to do! I will say that I have been more impressed with Julio and Delgado for that matter than I was when Tommy Hanson was at Gwinnett. Not sure what than means but whatever?!?!?
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
12:17 pm
But a team has to consider where a player might feel comfortable and all the distractions doing something so out-of-the-box would cause, so he would never hit lead-off. –Payne
I’ll have to file this one away. As this point was routinely made at the beginning of the season, and you rejected it out-right.
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
12:19 pm
If you leave the shades at the 45 degree point, do the news channels resemble the old Charlie Brown teacher?
Yes. Yes they do.
richbrave
August 30th, 2011
12:19 pm
Quake update:
We had our fourteenth aftershock Sunday night= Monday morning. Additional NPRC inspectors were rushed to the two reactors that automatically scrummed during the 5.8 quark tuesday. Local residents that I spoke with reported seeing steam rising from the plant. Today’s paper said insulating wrappings from the coolant pipes had been shaken off during the quake and the 4.5 aftershock the next day. A major crack in a building wall not part of the reactors themselves. Stay tuned. Mighty quiet up there, mighty quiet.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
12:19 pm
Jimmy, we are just discussing what we think and most of us are trying to back it up with reason and evidence. That was what the post was about: “Will Braves sign Bourn to big extension? Should they?”
That’s what the comments section is all about. Would be kind of boring if we just discussed past performances and left the future to, “let them play themselves into whatever they become.” There wouldn’t be much to discuss and the comments section would be rather boring.
DAP
August 30th, 2011
12:20 pm
That would be worth a 20-minute drive and a nice night at the DAP
thats what she said.
abeeeewright
August 30th, 2011
12:21 pm
Just for curiosity …
Is a guy who gets on first base and steals 40 bases better than a guy who hits 40 doubles (all other things being equal)?
Similar question … which is better: a BA/OBP of .360/.360 or an OBP of .360?
DAP
August 30th, 2011
12:22 pm
scoots But he’ll need at least an average breaking ball to fulfill his potential in the bigs.
so, it aint even average?
Lew
August 30th, 2011
12:22 pm
Shaun – Yeah, I know what you’re saying. You speak English and that’s the language I’ve been educated using. I just think you worry too much about age and that there is absolutely no reason to expect Bourn to trail off that badly during a 4-5 year deal.
All of your concerns are speculation based on your fear of age and nothing else. You don’t mention injury history , nor do you site any mechanical problems with his swing that would affect a decline in ability.
You just need to realize that 33, even in athlete years, is just not that old, given year round training methods and nutrition available to millionaires.
richbrave
August 30th, 2011
12:23 pm
LYNCHBURG
Reliefer-closer ELIECER CARDENAS puts in another solid closing stint going 2.0 IP with zeros to lower his era to a tidy 0.83.
JRW
August 30th, 2011
12:23 pm
The Phillies actually offered $60Mil to Werth and were shunned. So they went and spent their money on Lee. Werth signed Boras midway through the season for the sole purpose of getting his big payday that he worked for. I kind of see Bourn doing the same thing. I don’t blame anyone for getting what they can get. But that being said if Bourn signs somewhere else he will become Public Enemy Number One in Atlanta. Because after all how could he turn down any offer from Frank Wren.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
12:24 pm
I’ll have to file this one away. As this point was routinely made at the beginning of the season, and you rejected it out-right
TennesseePaul, I don’t remember ever rejecting it outright. I assume you are referring to the discussions about Heyward hitting second? Was there any evidence or reason to believe Heyward wasn’t comfortable or caused a distraction hitting second?
In fact, I remember batting order discussions during that time where I pointed out that Chipper ideally would hit leadoff but probably not worth all the extra stuff that would go along with moving him there.
ijudgenot
August 30th, 2011
12:27 pm
I hope the Braves callups do not include Hernandez or Hicks. They both have proven that they cannot hit major league pitching. Would have loved to have seen Pastornicky but he is injured. Helms will be one of the callups or Braves would not have signed him. I hope the Braves do call up Gomez or Gartrell, both power hitting righthanders. Ron Gant is very high on Gartrell. He says he is for real with 30 homeruns. I hope the Braves take a look at him like they did Constanza and let him show whether he can hit major league pitching. I know there are only a limited number of slots but righthanded power hitter is a Braves need this and next year. It would be good to see if you have a possible righthanded power hitting outfielder in the minors right now.
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
12:29 pm
Payne, as always, you over-looked the other portion of that equation.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
12:31 pm
Lew, Bourn doesn’t need to tail off all that much to be a mediocre-or-worse hitter by age 33. It’s not just a matter of being concerned with age, though the Braves should be. You can’t just disregard it and assume players are the same at age 28 as they are at age 33. It’s also about Bourn’s skills. Bourn’s career year is this season. His OPS+ is 110. Last year it was 90. The year before that it was 97. From 2006-2008 it was 62. So it’s not like his performance has to drop off that much to be a mediocre-or-worse hitter. We have to take more than a narrow view of this. It’s not just about his age. It’s also about his skills and where he is at his peak and where he was before he peaked. You are the one that is obsessing over age in your attempt to refute my point. I’m looking not only at age but also his skills and where he is at his likely peak seasons.
Lew
August 30th, 2011
12:35 pm
Shaun – Even considering for a moment that he will decline as much as you believe (I don’t), what is the alternative? Do you go with another continuing parade of Schafers and McLouths and would a somewhat declined Bourn give you more than what those two (and others thrown out there) did?
I would rather just put Bourn there and let him play than to go through the same frustrating process of trying to find a commodity that just isn’t all that readily available – as we have seen in the past several years.
TennesseePaul
August 30th, 2011
12:35 pm
Is a guy who gets on first base and steals 40 bases better than a guy who hits 40 doubles (all other things being equal)?
All other things being equal? there is no difference. Both guys are making the same number of outs. Both guys are creating the same number of runs and contributing equally to the teams wins. That’s the nature of all other things being equal. But all other things are rarely equal.
Rodney Derrick
August 30th, 2011
12:35 pm
So Carroll, would I be better served by walking one block to see Moylan pitch than to watch Braves and Nats on the tube with the Nats announcers since we get their station here.
richbrave
August 30th, 2011
12:37 pm
LEW:
Good to see you and JERSEY Gill hangin’ in.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
12:37 pm
TennesseePaul, what? So there was evidence or reason to believe McLouth was so comfortable hitting second that it likely negated any advantages to having Heyward hitting second, if both players performed to reasonable expectations coming into the season? I doubt it.
Lew
August 30th, 2011
12:38 pm
richbrave – THanks. Did you come through it ll OK?
Murph
August 30th, 2011
12:38 pm
Didn’t Shaun state earlier in the year that, now that Uggla has crossed that magical 30 year line, his power numbers would start to drastically deteriorate?
Last time I checked Uggla was marching towards his career high in HR.
I do believe players start to break down more as they get older. However, in this day of modern medicine and training I think players can play at a higher level much longer than they could say 30 or 40 years ago.
Tommy T
August 30th, 2011
12:39 pm
Anyone else amazed by the possibility that both the N.L. MVP and the Cy Young award winner could come from a team that is currently 63-70? I don’t think either Kemp or Kershaw will win the respective rewards, but there are good cases for both.
richbrave
August 30th, 2011
12:40 pm
ROD DERRICK:
I would rather see a player of import to this season’s conclusion, and determine for myself if he will be a boon or bust to the 2011 ‘pen. But that’s just me. Stats only tell half of the story as far as I’m concerned.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
12:43 pm
Lew, first of all, I don’t believe he’ll decline all that much. But he doesn’t have to in order to be a mediocre-or-slightly-worse hitter. Look at his career path so far. Not so far-fetched and, in fact, probably very reasonable to assume that’s what he’ll be in his 30’s.
Second, of course the Braves other options have to be a consideration. I’m not arguing against that point, either. I’ll add that Bourn’s defense should be a huge consideration because that’s where most of his value lies going forward and into his 30’s.
Depending on price, the Braves may want to look at the centerfielders available in the trade market, especially if Boras wants some sort of all-star-caliber deal.
The main point I was arguing against is that Bourn would be a legitimate lead-off option for a few years longer. I think he will next season and possibly the next. But at some point in 2013, perhaps sooner, I think it gets fussy, given his skills, what he’s done so far in his career and his age.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
12:44 pm
sorry…fuzzy, not fussy
richbrave
August 30th, 2011
12:46 pm
Relatively unscathed. Just yard debris and a few large limbs down or hung up in the trees. Most of my neighbors not as fortunate. Most without power until friday. One had his home completely crushed end to end. Three more I know of with major damage, and in the immediate neighborhoods one killed by a falling tree. It wasn’t ISABEL, but not too far removed. Still some 800,000 without power. I feel like I’m livin’ at the foot of the cross ol’ buddy. How about you?
Lew
August 30th, 2011
12:47 pm
Shaun – Do you actually believe that Wren went out and picked up Bourn strictly for this year’s stretch drive? Do you think they didn’t already factor all the other payers that might be available this winter or what we have in the minors into their equation? The fact that they’re considering offering him a multi year deal should pretty well tell you that these possibilities have already been explored and that they went and got the player they wanted all along.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
12:50 pm
Murph, don’t remember saying “drastically deteriorate.” In fact, that’s one thing I’ve fought against: People suggesting that when I say decline, it means drastically deteriorate. It’s much more gradual and bumpy, if you will, than just a sharp deterioration.
I do think Uggla’s first-half performance may have been partly due to some age-related decline, but it wasn’t as simple as that. That wasn’t the only factor. I think, going forward, we’re going to see some Brandon Phillips type seasons from Uggla–solid power, sub par on-base.
Also, in this day and age of modern medicine and training, the 26-29-year-olds also have access to modern medicine and training. So the typical peak ages haven’t change. You do have a point that players may be able to hang around longer because of modern medicine and training. But I don’t think that drastically changed the typical aging patterns of players.
richbrave
August 30th, 2011
12:51 pm
98
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
12:51 pm
Do you actually believe that Wren went out and picked up Bourn strictly for this year’s stretch drive?
Lew, no. Because Bourn is signed through next season. So Wren picked him out for this year’s stretch drive and all of next season.
Anders
August 30th, 2011
12:52 pm
Lew- Good to see your back on the blog. We had word yesterday you were ok but without power. You guys got smacked pretty good up there. I hope the damage to your homestead was minimal.
Fols
August 30th, 2011
12:54 pm
I eat a blueberry yogurt, chocolate pudding and a can of sheppard’s pie flavored steriods for lunch every day…..I basically eliminated the theory of deterioration in your 30’s. Try it yourself.
coach13
August 30th, 2011
12:56 pm
THe better question is “why shouldn’t they?” He’s absolutely what this team needs.
Anders
August 30th, 2011
12:56 pm
OK, back to the business at hand. I have to laugh at how now with Bourn in the fold now speed is good. For years it was dismissed by most on here as of low relevance to run scoring. Now even the blogmaster is pointing out how Bourn has stolen more bases than Reyes and Rollins combined since 2009. Of course both have been oft injured over that time but let’s not let that get in the way.
I call this the “Wags Effect”. Meaning, if we’ve got it, it must be good.
Fols
August 30th, 2011
12:57 pm
I 100% believe that Wren took into account next season when discussing Bourn. With Chipper Jones coming close to retirement and young guns like Freeman stepping into play……there is a window to win. They will do all they can this year and next to get that done. When your not dishing out millions everyday like the Yankees and Red Sox you have windows to win like every other franchise. Let’s just take advantage of ours this year and next……..then let the Bourn issue play itself. Despite the negativity on here, we have a legit shot to get on a roll and win this thing.
Lew
August 30th, 2011
12:58 pm
Anders – NO damage at all – just the power loss. Many others not nearly as fortunate as we are.
Shaun – Then why are they considering the offer NOW instead of waiting a year.
Wren said all along that the had the players available to have gotten Beltran, Pence, or any other player they wanted and Bourn was who they wanted. You can discount how Wren makes his decisions as much as you’d like, but the fact remains, Bourn is who they wanted all along, he’s who they got and he’s who they’ll offer a multi year deal to. Whether or not you agree with their decision and how they arrived at it..
Random
August 30th, 2011
1:00 pm
RemoW (August 30th, 2011 11:33 am): “Random said: ‘Second, if defense alone saved 100 runs, most of those 100 runs — had they not been saved – would have likely been UNearned runs which would not affect any pitcher’s ERA.’
“I have to disagree with that item. There is no way to know how many of those saved 100 runs would be unearned. Obviously some number would be, but the 2 steps Smith had on Ripken means he gets to balls that Ripken would not have even got a glove near. If Ripken doesn’t get near the ball that is a clean hit that Smith would turn into an out.”
Okay.
(I might note that I didn’t actually say “HOW MANY”, only “most” (vice your own “some number”), but I suspect you would still quibble with that.)
So — okay.
Anders
August 30th, 2011
1:02 pm
Bourns a much better fit then Beltran and Pence. Beltran’s too unreliable. I’ve never been a Pence fan. His goofy looking game just doesn’t work for me. Guys like that usually have holes in their swings and the better pitches in the playoffs find them imo. Bourn has more weapons to contend with. Just an outside opinion.
Shaun
August 30th, 2011
1:09 pm
Lew, because that’s what the blog post was all about: Will the Braves sign Bourn to an extension and should they. That’s why I’m considering it now.
I’m sure the Braves had the players to get whomever they wanted, given that they are loaded with pitching prospects. But Bourn fit the Braves’ needs the best, Pence and Beltran aren’t all that much better if at all and Bourn costs less in terms of the players they had to give up. Never said I disagreed at all with the decision to trade for him. On the contrary, I would have been somewhat disappointed if they had given up what it apparently would have taken to get Pence or Beltran. I’m not even saying I would disagree with a possible decision to sign him beyond next season. Depends on the price.
The main point I was making was against the idea that he’s a legit, solid lead-off hitter much further beyond next season.