3:06 pm July 31, 2011, by David O'Brien
July 31st, 20119:06 pm
I’m not a zealot when it comes to sabermetrics, I just found it interesting when comparing the 3 players the Braves were after. Yes, it is difficult to quantify defense, that’s why we have the eye test. Bourn is a great CF because he covers a ton of ground and gets to balls that most CF wouldn’t. The eye test also says hes a far superior offensive player than McLouth and Schafer this year.
I’m not an expert on it either, but if someone smarter than me says that Bourn is 3 wins more valuable than what we have/had and 1 win more valuable than Pence, i’ll take their word for it. I don’t need a metric to tell me that, but it does appear that the Phoolies overpaid for a less valuable, more expensive player.
July 31st, 20119:07 pm
Good luck to Schafer. This will be a good deal if the Braves can sign Bourn to a long term DEAL and not just an end of the year rental.
July 31st, 20119:10 pm
Flo – Bourn isn’t a rental. He is signed through next year and is arbitration eligible. He is making $4.4M this year and the Astros are paying most of that. He will get something around $6M next year which is very reasonable for a Gold Glove CF that leads the league in SBs every year.
I am confident the Braves will try to negotiate an extension since there are no CF prospects close to MLB ready. He’s 28 and could be a contributor to this team for a while.
…Wren did all this on a budget.
…eat it haters.
July 31st, 20119:11 pm
Rowsdower, I believe the eye test more than anything. The approaches in an at bat can not be quantified by any statistic. BUt like I said, if some that believe them, wonderful. If it brings some younger kids into the game and help them fall in love with it like us old guys love it……..BEAUTIFUL. I just think it is a bunch of over analyzing numbers that are questionable.
By the eye test….Bourn is the guy we needed for the past 2 years. Dang, even if he goes 0-5 tomorrow, I’m still excited about the chances he has just added to this team. Both offensively and deffensively
July 31st, 20119:13 pm
I hate piling it on….but.
“On a team that’s poised to win,” Wren said, “we need the finished product.”
July 31st, 20119:23 pm
As a baseball player, I agree Joseph. I can tell what a good player is without statistics and metrics. Without looking at Uggla’s stats the last month anyone with any baseball knowledge could tell he’s playing well just by seeing how he’s swinging right now. He isn’t on one knee half the time anymore.
I’m also a firm believer that going the other way and up the middle are good signs for a hitter. Really liked what I saw from Heyward today. Need that to continue…
July 31st, 20119:34 pm
Please do not take this the wrong way Rowsdower………As a baseball player? How old are you? Again I am not trying to insult you at all.
Uggla’s streak starting long before 21 games ago if people watched the games. At the beginning of June, he stopped moving his head during his swing. Yes it took some time for things to work out, but that was the start of it. Heyward is working extra, so give the KID time. Batting him 7th right now is wonderful and let him work his way out of his first time in his life of playing hurt and playing through a slump. Let’s just wait and see what this kid is made of mentally. That is where it is now. He is struggling. I believe in him to pull through and chalk this up to a sophomore slump, but he has to prove it. Maybe this is what he needs to get going. I hope so.
July 31st, 20119:43 pm
I’m 36. I still play here in Austin, Texas. I also play on a traveling tournament team. It’s not my job, but i’m gonna keep pitching until I can’t get people out anymore.
I’m certainly not giving up on Heyward like some of these jackwagons on here. I remember what I was doing at 21 and it wasn’t playing RF for a playoff team. In fact, I was coming off my 2nd of 3 shoulder surgeries. I just really liked his approach today. He stayed on the ball and didn’t get beat like he has the last few weeks.
I liked the comment Simpson made during the game that he needs to not worry about his stats to date and focus on the next 2+ months of the season. No one remembers how you started, but they definitely remember how you finish.
July 31st, 20119:48 pm
That is the same talk Fredi (I say this for the ……..others) the (idiot stupid worst manager ever) had with Uggla. Forget what your numbers are right now. Today starts a new season. Not long after that talk Uggla is doing what he is doing. I keep forgetting Fredi is stupid so why did I just give him any credit? HAHAHAHA. But seriously, Heyward has been working, and it takes time to put batting cage work into a live game. Baseball is a humbling game.
July 31st, 20119:57 pm
July 31st, 20119:59 pm
Bench the NON productive Messiah of the Team – the sissy Heyward. Send him down to the minors where he can get a good kick in the can and maybe he will get his head screwed on straight lest he turn into another Francouer – who also was dubbed the Messiah……
July 31st, 201110:04 pm
Bench………WHO IS USING THE WORD “MESSIAH” FOR ANY FREAKING BASEBALL PLAYER????? Nobody is the Messiah except one. Grow up and stop your have a rational thought for once please.
July 31st, 201110:11 pm
Yeah, Fredi gets it from the Monday Morning QBs on here, but really, he did an excellent job with a low rent Marlins team and is showing this year what he can do with a real team.
No doubt baseball is a humbling game. Everytime I’ve felt like I have it figured out, I get ransacked. Heyward is far too talented to not figure it out. I think with his upbringing he won’t have any trouble handling the mental challenges. His problem might be overthinking and not letting his natural ability take over. Then again, who am I to say…
July 31st, 201110:16 pm
I never thought of the overthinking aspect. Might be possible. But give the kid time.
July 31st, 201110:38 pm
Another reason I don’t trust sabermetrics…they rate Freeman the worst fielding 1B in baseball. HA! Maybe they should ask Chipper, Alex and Uggla how many errors he’s saved them.
July 31st, 201110:44 pm
Like I said Rowsdower, if it is something that brings the kids to the game, then I am for it. I just personally don’t see the relevance. I mean no disrespect to anybody that follows those numbers or anything, that is just me.
July 31st, 201110:48 pm
They should have kept Schafer and given up McDUDD. Jordan will be a all star, count on it. As far as Chipper, why do you all think he will be batting anywhere. For the last two years all hes done is sit on the bench when we need him the most. Hes done and I wish he would move on. Because of Chipper, we have had two to three players on the DL all year. If we have a healthy 3rd baseman instead of CHipper the DL king then maybe we would be in first right now.
July 31st, 201110:51 pm
If by McDudd you mean McLouth, why would the Astros want him? He makes $7M. They are rebuilding and don’t need a washed up, expensive 30 year old player. This isn’t a video game where you can just package all your bad players and get Albert Pujols…
July 31st, 201110:52 pm
“We’re really struggling to get runners in from third with less than two outs,” Uggla said. “We’ve got to start doing that in order to win some ballgames.”
Thank you captain obvious :b
July 31st, 201110:55 pm
Ok Ok…Please someone smarter than me help me understand this…..please……..”Because of Chipper, we have had two to three players on the DL all year.” WHAT???/ How can any one player be blamed for 2 or 3 other players getting hurt? That is the most stupid comment I have ever heard.
July 31st, 201111:07 pm
It’s easy, Joseph. Chipper stepped on Schafer’s finger and tickled Mac and McLouth while they were trying to throw causing them to pull muscles. He stomped on Moylan’s back, and…
…Yeah, that was a pretty asinine comment. Not the prize winner, but pretty damn dumb.
July 31st, 201111:10 pm
Rowsdower……after having DOB single me out for half a comment that he had every right to take as offensive, which wasn’t my intent. I thank you for making me laugh. That was hilarious.
Bob the Blogger
July 31st, 201111:53 pm
Here’s an interesting stat: Bourn’s on base percentage is .363, McLouth’s is .344. (Other than that, it’s pretty lopsided.)
This is an AWESOME trade! I’m so glad Schafer is GONE! We got a REAL centerfield now.
August 1st, 201112:00 am
@ Rowsdower well, UZR has Freddy down there, because it puts (IMO) too much emphasis on left to right range. It punishes Freddy for being a big guy as he doesn’t have the left to right range of some other 1st basemen. +/- (or DSR) measures runs saved and he’s near the top on that. It weighs plays made ,chances, putouts and other things…. But it’s true that defensive sbaermetrics are very very primitive (however they are loads better than fielding percentage, now THAT’S a worthless statistic!!! an actual statue who only fielded balls hit into its baseball sized hole and then shot them to first base like a pitching machine could have a 1.000 fielding %, but not really much range heh? lol) I tend to not use combined WAR bu rather oWAR to avoid having UZR or wtvr hold too much sway. Oh and Joseph, I’m 38 and I have learned to accept the saber stats because they give a more accurate picture of the game and it’s players. Two different players can hit .300, but only one of them could actually be worth a crap. Batting avg, RBI’s, pitching Wins, heck even ERA alone can be misleading stats. (like ERA is fairly worthless for relievers as they don’t get charged runs when they allow inherited runners to score).
Some of the stats can be a bit hard to get a handle on . But if you goto a site like fangraphs.com and go to the glossary, it explains what many of them mean. It basically gives you,as a fan, the tools to figure out more about the true quality of a players production! (like how BABIP (bat. avg on balls in play) shows that not only is Heyward struggling, he’s also been very unlucky)
August 1st, 201112:02 am
especially since we all can’t watch EVERY PLAYER across the league. Highlights are misleading cuz you only see the best. Stats are what we have, and when forming an opinion, don’t you want to have the highest quality most accurate information you can?
August 1st, 201112:07 am
BTW, I’m hearing if the White Sox don’t make the playoffs they may do a ground up rebuild next year. If that happens, I wouldn’t mind trying to grab Alexei Ramirez. Guy is as good a fielder as Gonzo and can actually hit a wee bit. Prolly wouldn’t be a prospect breaker either. Might take Pastornicky and a low level guy or two…. Just a thought (heck why not make a package deal for he and Quentin and throw in Delgado) think of this lineup
sweet jesus that team would score a ton of runs!!!!! Oh dear I’ve gone and wet myself!!! soooo, let’s root for a Chi-sox epic fail!!!!!!!!!!!! lol, jk
NickB..So if I may…….you are saying that Freeman is a stud defensively at 1B. You used some numbers and equations that I have never heard of to get to that point? Please correct me if I am wrong there. I can tell Freeman is a gold glove talent 1B with my eyes. I don’t need some weird numbers to prove it even though you admit they are primitive with regard to defensive stats.
August 1st, 201112:18 am
Yeah, but that’s why I prefer the eye test. I have watched Freddie save countless errors and make some pretty slick plays at 1B. Sure, he doesn’t have great range, but what 1B does? Most 1B are there because they are subpar defensively and need a position for their bat.
I don’t need to see every player to know which ones can play. Metrics give us an indication, but like all numbers, can be manipulated and gamed.
It’s like they say, “Numbers don’t lie, but people that manipulate them do.” Just look at our government…
August 1st, 20111:12 am
I love this trade, didn’t give up top prospects and got a great player in return. I did liked Jordan and he showed at times that he had the stuff to be in the majors and be good as F.Gonzalez said but he just wasnt the right piece to the puzzle to help us go deep into the playoffs. I believe Bourne can be that gut and for those who are thinking that he may not be able to produce for a contender, the guy was on the phillies team when they began their playoff runs and i believe he was on their world series team producing. As for tonights game, yea we should of won that game but when we make errors on the basepaths and dont score runners from third with less than 2 outs then we wont have a good second half. I love constanzas hustle but he made a pretty big mistake at trying to advance to third with no outs; i know we left a lot of men on base tonight but that was mainly thanks to Gonzos inability to wait for a pitch he can actually hit and a seasoned rookie in boscan not being able to put the ball in play, we kept getting people on base only to have our 7 and 8 guys suck it up. Who knows what would of happened if we could have somehow gotten these people on with less than 2 outs with prado, freeman, uggla, and the way heyward hit tonight (i mean even though it was a double play at least freeman put the ball in play so that we could get one run). Cant wait for the game tomorrow and see what lineup is announced.
Ill go with
1 Bourne CF
2 Constanza LF
3 Prado 3B
4 Uggla 2B
5 Freeman 1B
6 Heyward RF
7 Ross C
8 Gonzalez SS
9 J.J P
P. Bull Terrier
August 1st, 20111:27 am
Who appointed Joseph “Captain of the Blog” tonight? I know I’m late to jump in on the Schafer argument, but I can’t stand when someone claims their personal opinion is a “fact”. I think we can all agree that Schafer was suspended for 50 games for something having to do with banned substances, but I have never seen anything that substantiates the claim that he tested positive or was caught using anything. Maybe he was using something. Maybe his story is true and he was punished simply for being around it. The “fact” is that we don’t have any “facts” to prove either side of the story. We can choose to believe whatever we want, but that doesn’t make what we believe a “fact”. I think it’s likely that Schafer got caught using something, so I don’t disagree with Joseph’s opinion – just his overuse of the word “fact”. And that’s a fact.
On another note, I was surprised at how popular Schafer seemed to be in the clubhouse. It sounded like everyone was really rooting for him. I hope that doesn’t make it difficult for anyone to make Bourn feel welcome. From everything I have read, it sounds like Bourn is a good guy who should fit in well in the clubhouse, but chemestry can be a strange thing.
August 1st, 20111:28 am
As Braves fans I think it would be the Southern, gracious thing to do and learn how to spell our new player’s name. It’s Michael Bourn. There is no E.
I will say that this team has a new Identity. We sent an Ultimatum to the Phillies and Giants that we are out for Supremacy.
August 1st, 20111:46 am
i guess the braves need to look behind them instead of looking ahead at the phillies.
braves 3.5 up in wild card
if the phillies go 29 and 26(which would be a collapse)
and the braves go 33 and 20 phils win division
if phils go 32 and 23 braves would have to go 37 and 16 to tie the phils(not happening)
August 1st, 20112:08 am
Not all that concerned with catching the Phillies. If it happens, great. If not, just as good. It’s about making the playoffs and our chances just improved considerably. The Giants and Diamondbacks are gonna beat up on each other. I like our chances.
You didn’t really think the Braves were just gonna fade away, did you?
August 1st, 20113:00 am
You should try to catch the Phils. I know anything can happen in the poststseason you really don’t want a play gm 6 and 7 in CBP especially the way we’ve played there in the past in September.
August 1st, 20116:09 am
Somewhere a village is missing an idiot–Joseph.
August 1st, 20116:57 am
Great move for you guys…now take care of the Giants in the NLDS and we will see you in the NLCS…GO PHILS
August 1st, 20118:24 am
you need to talk about your SS
August 1st, 20118:52 am
The remarks from Chipper indicate that he was not consulted before the trade was made and he seems a little miffed about it.
I have waited 24 hours to read some comments from Bourn himself and there is nothing, even in the Houston papers. This concerms me because this young man is a Houston native, born and raised, and went to college there. He has never left home to play anywhere. It maybe a shock to leave there right now and it will take time before he gets his feet grounded in Atlanta. The “wait and see” remark by Chipper, hopefully will not pressure this guy to think he has to hit .400 in Atlanta. He needs to just do what he was doing in Houston. I was pleased to here the comments from Wren and Gonzalez about the Braves transitioning to a team with speed. With McCann, Prado, Freeman, Uggla, Heyward and Bourn they have 6 solid starters for the future. Prado should take over thirdbase next year and Pastornicky is improving everyday at shortstop and should be ready by next year. That leaves leftfield to be filled. I say bring back Frenchy over the winter with a trade for Minor. This gets him out of NL so Braves won’t have to face him like they have to be reminded each time they play the Cardinals.
August 1st, 20119:04 am
Das good news on getting Bourn. Das should keep Bones Jones from coming back too soon off das DL
August 1st, 20119:44 am
I just want to say that Fank Wren is a whole lot smarter than I ever gave him credit for being. The way he pulled this trade off without giving up any of the top prospects was brilliant, what he did for about a month before the deadline was to lay a smoke screen to make Wade think we were desperate for Pence while Wren really wanted Bourn. By not giving in to the extremely high asking price for Pence it actually lowered the price for Bourn. If Wade had known how bad Wren wanted Bourn the price would have been much higher but he made it look like he was seeking Bourn only as a booby prize and Wade thought if he wouldn’t give up any of the top 6 prospects for Pence he surely wouldn’t for Bourn. Great deception Frank, I have a lot more respect for you now.
August 1st, 201110:14 am
@Scott – Didn’t you guys have home field advantage in the NLCS last year? How’d that work out? It really doesn’t matter where the games are played. The Phillies and Braves have split this year. You have a good team. We have a good team. See you in the playoffs.
To the gracious Phillie fans, good luck to you as well. It should be fun.
August 1st, 201111:08 am
We will have to revisit this trade in two more years, Bourn is already fully established and Schaffer could eventually be the same type player for Houston.
The key could be the three arms we added to the so called pot, this gives the Astros a chance at a number 3 or 4 pitcher in their future, maybe even a 2 and 3 ? Thats the unknown factor as the pitchers are still very young.
One thing is certain, we have not had a CF who will be this disruptive to other staffs since Otis Nixon, and Nixon gave Atlanta a big spark.
We may have found our extra relief pitcher in C. Martinez, he has been super of late. Peter Moylan will be back soon……….. for those who think he shall help?
Would have been nice to add a power hitter but every team wanted our best young arms and glad we kept them no matter how this season plays out. The future is always important.
If we ever get 100% healthy again maybe we will start scoreing runs and take some pressure off the staff who have done a fantastic job this season.
August 1st, 201111:18 am
WTF is Freddie thinking about, starting two rookies, who are definitely not major league calibur. and losing the freakin game. Now we are 6 back and more importantly (we will never catch the Phillies) we are only 3.5 in front of D’Baks for wild card.
This team really SUCKS, I hate the Philllies, but you gotta give them credit (or tip the damn hat) they give you the feeling they are never out of any game and yesterday was a real example of that. Anyone in lineup can hurt you and drive in runs.
Wouldn’t it be great to, for once, have a team like that? Oh boy we got Bourne, is that Jason, or who is this guy. Think we needed a little more fire power, don’t you?????
August 1st, 201111:34 am
joseph proves himself to be an idiot, yet again.
August 1st, 201111:53 am
@Ijudgenot- Bourn was in the Phillies organization- he was part of the Brad Lidge deal when Gillick was the GM in Philly.
August 1st, 201111:57 am
Great dialogue from Joseph & Rowsdower, good stuff!
Agree w most. The one problem I have with Freddi is the over use in the pen. Going to catch up to us at some point.
August 1st, 201112:00 pm
Scoring runs and Atlanta Braves, isn’t that an oxymoron?
August 1st, 201112:01 pm
@ Spudd Webb- You could use that same argument about the starters in Philly then could you not? The top 3 are on schedule for over 250 inns each. I’ve said all along that will be there down fall- all I hear up hear is we finally get our starting line up on the field- well the Bravos have played 11 games with their starting line up? I think we will match up pretty darn good with whoever- the one team that has been a thorn in our side is who we have next 3 games- so lets see- I can say the Phillies thought the same thing about Bourn as Braves did Shaf- going to be good just not yet-
August 1st, 201112:04 pm
To DHD. And I hope I never ahve to read another uninformed comment from you.
August 1st, 201112:07 pm
Bourn will help and is of course an upgrade. The real problem for the Braves, though, is situational hitting and HTM (hits that matter). They have done nothing to addresss this except shuffle Uggla and Freeman in the order. Still a crying need for a right-handed power bat. So I think, bottom line, Phils made a better deal and remain East champs. Braves will struggle to win wild card and, I think, will blow it.
August 1st, 201112:13 pm
To DHD and I hope to never have to read another uninformed comment from you.
August 1st, 20111:28 pm
I am glad Wren got Borne, but the best move he made was getting rid of Scahfer
August 1st, 20111:32 pm
Chipper does carry a big stick ON THE BENCH.
August 1st, 20112:03 pm
Michael Bourn is “The Bourn Express”. It will catch on.
Eric Hinskie is “The Kevin James of Baseball”
We also have Thunder and Lightning (Venters and Kimbrel)
WS bound I see….
August 1st, 20113:48 pm
schafer and McClouth couldn’t hit there way out of a wet paper bag yo, little flares and tapouts is what you get with those two lightweights, they need to sit McClouth down for the rest of the year.
August 1st, 20114:54 pm
Who’s going to knock him in? 13 hits Sunday and one run. That’s pathetic. They need another bat.
Black Mountain Bulldog
August 1st, 20114:59 pm
Chipper should bat sixth.
He is upset because he took Schafer under his wing.
He was also upset when they let his hunting buddy Adam Larouce (spelling) go.
Hey Chipper how has that Freddie Freeman worked out?
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