George, he wasn’t listening to you. Using the closer in the 9th inning of a tie game at home is the book move…90% of managers would do that. Last Friday was a road game, in which the possibility of a save in extra innings remained. 90% of managers would NOT use a closer in a tie game on the road unless it went a bunch of innings.
Cosign. George check out how Boston used Papelbon last night, uggh I mean this morning in Tampa.
The fear of making a bad move hinders risk taking. Worst case scenario: Wren trades Lowe, moves up Minor or Teheran to take his place, they tank, and Lowe goes onto help some team win in the playoffs.
If a possible Lowe trade does give us more financial flexibility this year, one back-up idea could be to pickup a veteran starter in the aug waiver period – this is contingent on the fact that the Braves dont see Minor living up to Lowe’s standards. Usually you have a few no.5 veteran starters available for <2 M. Would that be too complicated?
Tommy T, good to know that your ability to disagree is limited by the amount in which you can disagree. Kidding of course. As for me, I would trade him to the team that would pay the most of his salary. Your point is that this should never happen and I don’t think any organization can ever afford to say never. If Lowe were 0-10 with a 6 ERA you wouldn’t still do it?
Snot, yeah that too, but only if that starter was heading for free agency in 2012.
Steve from OH, teams may not have the same needs/motivation in November. Tigers might be more apt to use guys from the minors or sign a free agent. Do it when you can, learn from the mistake that was made with KK. Don’t get too cute.
If Lowe were 0-10 with a 6 ERA, he probably wouldn’t be a part of a contending teams rotation. My point is contending teams can’t afford to give up wins just for the sake of salary relief (the scenario you laid out).
I wanted to get Upton from Tampa Bay until I watched last night’s game… and yes, I watched the entire game. Wasn’t very impressed with his approach at the plate.
I wanted to get Upton from Tampa Bay until I watched last night’s game… and yes, I watched the entire game. Wasn’t very impressed with his approach at the plate. — Murph
Guy has a bit of an attitude too as evidenced in his behavior in a game against us a year or two ago. I knew right then, this guy would never fit on the Braves.
this is contingent on the fact that the Braves dont see Minor living up to Lowe’s standards
I think it would be more contingent on total innings pitched. Minor was exhausted down the stretch last year, hence Beachy came up. All these young guns people wish to slide into Lowe’s spot aren’t going to be capable of putting up the innings that Lowe would have brought the team. That either makes other starters have to pitch more (skipping the fifth starter by utilizing off days) or leaning even more on the bull pen.
With this in mind, Beach has about 100 more innings he can present this season before he crosses the Verducci threshold. That should be just enough to take him to the end of the season, if he continues to average 5-2/3 innings a start… and put him in sketchy land for any potential post season innings.
OK, since no one wanted to guess, why don’t I just TELL you the answers. Haha.
1. Who are the only two teams that have NEVER won 95 or more games in a season? (Neither have ever finished in first place)
The Rockies and the Marlins
2. Besides the two teams from #1, what is the only other team that has NEVER finished in first place?
The Nationals/Expos
3. Of the remaining teams who have finished in first place at some point, who has gone the longest since doing so?
The Brewers (1982). The Royals (1985) and Tigers (1987) are next in line.
4. The Braves, Yankees, and Cardinals, all consistently good franchises in this era, all finished in last place in 1990. Who are the only two teams whose most recent last place finish was before 1990? This may surprise you. (All teams in MLB have finished last at some point)
Would you believe that it’s the Reds (1983) and the White Sox (1989)?
5. Which team hasn’t had a really bad (95+ losses) team in 98 years?
The Cardinals, who last lost 95 games in 1913. The closest is the Red Sox, who haven’t lost 95 games since 1965.
Steve from OH, true, but to me the risk is worth the reward.
Tommy T, So if they had a 10 game lead, I mean I am just trying to walk you back from your statement of NEVER. If you can concede there are times when a team could afford to do it, then the argument becomes are the braves, at present or will they be on 7/31, in a position to take a low risk high reward option?
i like the mentality of the pirates. You have a chance to win and you go for it. The Braves are always thinking about next year. I like being a contender. But sometimes you just want them to go for it!
All these young guns people wish to slide into Lowe’s spot aren’t going to be capable of putting up the innings that Lowe would have brought the team. < ?em> — TennesseePaul
In the past, I’d have agree with you. But Lowe has pitched more than 6.0 innings in only two of his past 12 starts, and has worked fewer than six innings in five of his past nine.
Steve from OH, true, but to me the risk is worth the reward.
For purely financial gain from this point until the end of the season, it is not. I’d much rather have Lowe pitching in September than Minor. If we use the money to upgrade elsewhere, then yes.
“I also happen to do my homework, unlike N8 who makes it a habit to talk out his a-ss most of the time.”Coach
Coach accusing somebody of talking out of their ass is almost as ridiculous as Fuzzy Zoeller being offended by a racist joke.
“Comparing Derek Lowe to Doyle Alexander? Yes. Because unlike the nonsense written by N8 I happen to actually know who Alexander is. His record was 5-10 when traded with an ERA of 4.13.”
Yup. I know how to look up stats too coach. Did you bother noticing that behind only Zane Smith, Alexander was the 2nd best pitcher on that staff and close to being the Ace.
If Mike Minor was up full time and Fredi went with a 6 man rotation, Lowe would be #6 on the depth chart in terms of productivity. 5th at best. I only say 6th, because I assume if Minor was GIVEN the job and didn’t have to worry about being sent up or down after every other start, his production would likely rise with his relaxation.
So yeah…. keep trying to compare what Derek Lowe means to this staff, to what Doyle meant to that staff.
It’s not even close. Doyle was only expendable, because Bobby was setting up the rotation for the future.
Derek is expendable AND the team is trying to win right now.
“In the past, I’d have agree with you. But Lowe has pitched more than 6.0 innings in only two of his past 12 starts, and has worked fewer than six innings in five of his past nine.”DOB
Don’t bother trying to talk reality with some of these guys DOB. Don’tcha know that Lowe is money and Minor sucks? Come on. Try and keep up.
10Paul, but wouldn’t you expect Minor to be able to extend his innings from last year? Is he on a pace already to exceed last year by more than 40 or so? They could always take it easy on him for the next few starts in AAA.
I don’t need to be walked back from my statement by you or anyone else. If a contending team has any conceivable lead on 7/31 (be it 10 games or 25 games), they shouldn’t sacrifice wins for salary relief. Those type of moves are made by losing teams or in the offseason. Do you think the Mets thought their lead was insurmountable in ‘07 (I believe) when they were up 7 with 17 left? Three weeks later, they were lamenting every single game they lost. If the Braves want to win a championship, any move has to be made to make the team better this season, not improve the bottom line.
Steve from OH, So if we had a 10 game lead in the wild card on 7/31 you don’t pull that trigger? You think replacing 10 Lowe starts with 10 Minor starts wouldnt (in terms of not making the playoffs) be worth saving $19 or $20 million dollars? Or do you think Lowe is going to be counted on in October?
If the Braves want to win a championship, any move has to be made to make the team better this season, not improve the bottom line.
That kinda depends on the FO’s definition of “better”, doesn’t it? I mean, risk/reward evaluation is what they’re paid to do, especially at this time of the year. There are just so many variables (most of them unknown to us here in the forum) that could impact on such a decision, that it’s easy for me to see both sides of a Lowe trade.
In the past, I’d have agree with you. But Lowe has pitched more than 6.0 innings in only two of his past 12 starts, and has worked fewer than six innings in five of his past nine
It isn’t so much to match what Lowe would do as it would be to fill in for Lowe. Take Teheran, he has already pitched 104 1/3 innings and will max out at less than 175 innings, making him not an option for down the stretch. Minor has tossed 115 so far and will max out at about before the end of the season. Beachy will max out, on regular rest for the remainder of the season, right at the end of the season. Trade Lowe and these young guns aren’t going to be available to pitch to the end of the year as their innings will be maxed. Or, they will pitch and the team will risk injuring them making next year more dicey.
Steve from OH, So if we had a 10 game lead in the wild card on 7/31 you don’t pull that trigger? You think replacing 10 Lowe starts with 10 Minor starts wouldnt (in terms of not making the playoffs) be worth saving $19 or $20 million dollars? Or do you think Lowe is going to be counted on in October?
I don’t think that’s the argument, the 10 game lead. And again, I think we’ll be able to get rid of him in the offseason. So in my view, it’s simply the cost savings for the remainder of the season.
That said, I think Wren gets more back for him than salary relief, or that Wren uses the savings to improve the club elsewhere. Probably a moot point.
Tommy T, I could not disagree with that more than I do. The odds, yes it happens once every 20 or 30 years, are so miniscule that to not do that trade because something historic might happen, is the worst management philosophy there is. It would be like you not going out in the rain because you might get struck by lightining.
Fargo, yeah it was. He’s in the 12 year old division. They won their first game and lost their 2nd to Dickinson (who they have never beat in the two years my son has been on the team), and then lost yesterday morning as well. We’re back home now.
Sucks. We assumed they’d do better. But in a way I’m fine with it. I have air conditioning where I’m at right now. LOL.
I agree on the number of variables to trading Lowe and also think that it’s 50/50 that it will happen. I simply think that if the move is made, there will be a corresponding move to improve the offense. I don’t see Wren moving Lowe just to dump salary. Contending teams just don’t do that. The only time I remember it happening was ‘97 when the White Sox moved Danny Darwin and a couple of other arms to the Giants when they were only three or so games out. The White Sox got hammered for raising the white flag and finished six out in second place.
N8, Isn’t this weather brutal?
the trees in my front yard are going to start having moss hanging from them!
its awful.
I’m sorry to hear that Dickinson got the best of your boy’s squad, sounds like they are starting to establish a nice rivalry.
And for the record, I’ve got your back on your assessment of the Lowe rumors.
“i like the mentality of the pirates. You have a chance to win and you go for it. The Braves are always thinking about next year. I like being a contender. But sometimes you just want them to go for it!”
That is an unfortunate statement. The last time the Pirates had a winning season was 1992. I think I will side with the Braves mentality.
I agree. If payroll relief is the reason to move him, I see no reason why that couldn’t be accomplished in November.
I don’t think you can assume that. If he struggles through the rest of ‘11, forget anybody taking him for next season. In addition to what DOB posted, his K rate has been really down the past month and a half.
I’m not saying “he’s done.” But if the Braves feel he’s sliding, right now is the time to do it. May be the only chance.
Of course on the flip side, he occasionally seems to remember how to pitch effectively (I don’t mean that in a snarky way) and rebounds. It’s just a tough call. I’d move him, if the opportunity arises, and look to add a good bat in CF or SS for this year and next.
but wouldn’t you expect Minor to be able to extend his innings from last year? Is he on a pace already to exceed last year by more than 40 or so?
He would be if brought up to replace Lowe in the rotation. Lowe has about 15 more starts headed his way, barring any skippage in the rotation. Asumption, Lowe is traded today, a young pitcher is called up to replace him.
Minor could pitch those 15 starts without exceeding his previous season’s limit by over 35 innings, if he didn’t go more than 5 innings in each start, thus taxing the pen even more.
Teheran could do it if he didn’t pitch more than 4.2 innings per start.
And that’s giving Beachy all his remaining starts while trying to keep him under an increase of 35 innings from last year… (Beachy could do this, but he’d be finished at the end of the season, post-season innings would propel him well past his limit).
Maybe the Braves do their innings growth differently. But using that rule of thumb, all these guys who are listed to step in Lowe’s spot, are all going to be maxed out making it complicated and risky to use them.
10Paul, so if Beachy maxes out (based on Tom Verducci’s theory) at the end of the season. At most he would get two starts in the playoffs so 12 or 13 more innings in the best case scenario. I don’t think Tom’s theory has proven to be that rigid. I am sure the margin of error is within a few starts. Minor wouldn’t be on the playoff roster, given no more injuries and Teheran could be moved to the pen.
Steve from OH, yeah I agree, I don’t think Wren is that much of an outside the box thinker. That’s why I originally said the Lowe trade has to be tied to a bat, and one big enough to be paid about what Lowe is getting paid.
Don’t bother trying to talk reality with some of these guys DOB. Don’tcha know that Lowe is money and Minor sucks? Come on. Try and keep up.
For the most part, except Coach, everyone is just discussing the different aspects of a possible trade. Plenty of scope for new points to be added without issues.
Does Lowe have in him still what he brought in September? Granted he was huge down the stretch last year but lets not get carried away with the experience factor. Not sure what his record is when starting games this year but right now, he may not even be a 4th starter. Beachy pre-DL gets the ball in game 4 for me. Experience is great but Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and the rookie Lefty did okay last fall. Lowe is not Schilling. Totally agree keep him if it is just for salary relief, but if you can get something in return? Yeah do it.
Fargo, yeah this weather is tough. I imagine it’s similar to what the Braves go through this time of year. But considering our weather has been so putrid and below normal temps, it seems so over the top.
Dickinson’s program is so good. They are one of the few programs around here that work year round with their squad. Our group didn’t even start practicing together until May and it showed. I’ll be curious to see how they compete with each other in the next few years. The 12 year old division is the final age group where they are coached by dad’s willing to volunteer. So a lot of favoritism going round.
So once our boys are hooked up in the 13 year old division with some “real” coaches (they used local college kids to work with the 13-15 year olds), I think it will be a game changer for them. Lot of silly decisions made this weekend.
Thanks for having my back. Somebody has to, right? LOL
September you expand the roster and can mix ‘n match Minor, Martinez, Teheran, Delgado, etc. Not that we’re likely to see all those guys, but you’ve got a lot of options for the last month of the season. And, after a brutal stretch in July and early August, we get some days off in the last half of August and September, so fifth starter role could be minimalized.
The other side of this analysis is, Minor, Teheran and Beachy will all be in position next year to theoretically be available for 200+ innings. That is of course, assuming they attain their innings levels this year and are in good health next season. So they would be viable candidates to replace Lowe 195 innings for 2012 and beyond. This season though it could be potentially taxing on these young arms to force them into that type of load. Taxing on them and the rest of the major league staff.
I don’t trust Minor yet. Dude gives up too many hits. .290 BAA in majors this year. Even in AAA, 3 starts in July: 16 innings, 19 hits (including 3 homers), 5 walks, and only 12 strikeouts. Not ready. I think this kid is tired again, just like last year.
Don’t forget that even if Lowe doesn’t start in the postseason, he’s an experienced relief pitcher.
Right. And right now, Beachy is that fifth starter who’s work load would be managed if Lowe is not traded. If Lowe is traded you have to find a way to minimize the work load of two starters. It’d take more than an off-day to do such a thing. You could do it by having Teheran and Minor tag-team as starters, but then you have them pitching on extended rest as well as maxing out innings. It could potentially do damage to get them off rhythm.
Is it true opposing players have been complaining about McCann ripping ‘em in between pitches? And they’re calling for ‘mandatory’ fabric softener sheets to be inserted by the ump prior to squatting? Do tell.
so if Beachy maxes out (based on Tom Verducci’s theory) at the end of the season. At most he would get two starts in the playoffs so 12 or 13 more innings in the best case scenario.
Well AYH, by the term “maxes out” he wouldn’t get any starts. He’d be maxed out.
The team could push them a bit further. They may have some other system they go by. I don’t know. I utilized the commonly available system as my premise. After watching Medlen though, I think they may be a little more cautious with these arms than before.
Plus, the team saw what Minor brought to the table when he was exhausted/maxed out last season. It’s what eventually brought Beachy to the table. Beachy’s DL stint actually allowed him to go deeper into the season.
mlbtraderumors does not have lowe listed for Detroits top 3. so i dont see lowe going anywhere now.
the yankees want ubaldo. If the yankees want someone they usually do what it takes to get them.
the pirates are pursuing Hunter Pence and I can see that happening. Or Aramis Ramirez. They are preparing themselves for a run at the pennant.
While our Braves have no rumors of upgrades. We just sit and wonder…
Of course on the flip side, he occasionally seems to remember how to pitch effectively (I don’t mean that in a snarky way) and rebounds
That’s the part that bothers me the most. He can occasionally do that – but do we know that he hasnt slipped enough over the last couple of months to still do it? We cant be sure that he will be that veteran presence, come October. What if he doesnt remember and we are left with a guy who goes 5 innings every start and gives up 3-4 runs?
TP, fair points, though I don’t think the Verducci effect needs to be applied quite so rigorously. And I also think that Christhian Martinez may very well be in the mix if we need another starter. Quite possibly the first one given the ball.
But, I don’t mean to overstate my case … I can certainly see both sides of the argument.
10Paul, I think going beyond the “max” (sorry shoulda put that in quotes for the literal minded) by 12 or 13 innings only, falls under the definition of cautious and not “propel him way past” as you said. Oh and Beachy is the 5th starter in name only.
After the Furcal debacle FW seems to have made a strict policy of mum’s the word. The first news of the Lowe talks came out of Detroit, only to be later confirmed by DOB. It is very doubtful that Frank intends to stay pat and take this exact roster forward the rest of the season.
If the tigers are indeed looking seriously at Guthrie, moving Lowe wouldnt be easy. Guthrie’s numbers look very similar to Lowe’s (both have an 89 ERA+) but is much cheaper. The prospect cost would be heavier than Lowe’s, which might be the issue with the deal, if any.
I have to believe that Lowe would be harder to trade in the off season if he continues to decline. There will be a lot more pitchers available come winter and for a lot less than 15mil. If the Tigers think they can win it all this season with Lowe in the rotation then it might be the right move for both clubs. The Braves got Lowe when they needed someone to anchor the staff after a horrible season the year before. They needed innings eaters that could give them solid 7 inning starts. Lowe isn’t that player anymore but he is reliable and the Tigers need reliable right now. Might happen and all things measure, maybe it should.
Sorry guys changing it up for a minute and back to the leadoff dilemma.
Schafer’s line batting in the 1st inning is .342 .432 .474(.906). Out of the 31 runs he has scored, almost a third in the First inning(9). Now the important part. The Braves are 38-10 when they score first. 38-10! Might be a telling sign to if they don’t make a deal.
“Trading” Lowe might be using the word loosely. More like a salary dump. If Lowe is declining as much as some say here, then, I suppose dumping his contract and salvaging something from it is a good thing. But is Lowe performing that much off his previous Braves’ seasons?
you could put a big stick in left while prado is out. You could get one for center or right field. Heyward is batting .226.
basically while prado is at third our whole outfield could be upgraded.
Despite what some on the blog think or want, the Braves are not about to give up on a 21 year old kid because he’s struggling. And they are not going to be looking for a big bat for left field because that would cause a problem when Chipper returns.
Frankie Wren, not sure 38-10 is all that impressive, I mean how does that compare to other teams? That’s about 20% points higher than their overall winning percentage, so are most teams 20% points higher?
Also, not sure how that relates to not making a deal when you said “Might be a telling sign to if they don’t make a deal.”
wasn’t directed at you. But, yes, people have suggested we trade Jason or go after another right fielder. To me, his .226 average becomes a concern if it lasts more then just this year.
while prado is at third our whole outfield could be upgraded.
You mean for the next week? Trade a quality pitcher or prospects for someone to fill in until Chipper is back? Hmmmmmmm… I’m going to go with… no. No, but I like that you’re thinking outside the box. Let’s table this for now and I’ll talk it over with my colleagues.
Amazing how the BRAVES have overrated and over hyped JASON. After all the hype I expected him to at least hit .270 with about 25 to 30 HRs. FREDDY by far has proved to be the better player of the two of them
Agreed in part. I do think though that, if the season continues with no Lowe trade and his innings are climbing fast, he’ll be treated as the “fifth starter” and have a turn skipped. He starts going deeper into games, his innings totals will climb faster. It wouldn’t be because they don’t trust him or anything. It’d only be to manage his innings totals in attempts to prevent injuries.
But yes, he is not the fifth starter in terms of quality of pitcher.
MikeFL, yeah. They could trade Lowe and plug these young guys in in some way. I just object to the assertion that is as simple as it seems to be stated, Trade Lowe, call up Minor. There are a lot more variables to this which come into play which would tend to lean more against a trade than for it. But nothing seems to out-right prohibit a trade or encourage a trade.
Don’t know how that compares to MLB as a whole. 38-10 sounds impressive though. Schafer doing what he did yesterday in the first inning is a good recipe for success. Baby steps man, 3 straight games coaxing base on balls.
But, yes, people have suggested we trade Jason or go after another right fielder.
Not to worry. Stupy is not catching, luckily.
Heyward had a very good August last year, and even with some tailing off in September, still had an .800 OPS that month. He just has to tinker with whatever is ailing his swing (and hopefully, it isn’t because of some compensation for his shoulder or anything like that) and he’ll be fine.
Why are people so worried about Heyward’s BA at .226 and in love with Prado’s BA at .274? All you have to do is look at the more meaningful stat of OBP and both players are about the same at .318 & .319. Both players mean so much to the Braves and talks about trading either are just wasted breaths.
So what happens if Freddie has a Sophomore season like Jason is having right now? It’s possible. Will people be demanding we find a new first baseman next season?
Why are people so worried about Heyward’s BA at .226 and in love with Prado’s BA at .274? All you have to do is look at the more meaningful stat of OBP and both players are about the same at .318 & .319.
Prado’s BA/OBP gap is about right for him, historically. A little low, but not all that much. Maybe that’s part of it. Both of them are putting more balls in play this season, it would seem.
I didn’t think they’d trade Lowe midseason, but if DOB says the rumor has legs, I’ll listen to him on the situation.
All this talk about Minor or Teheran. Teheran’s about to get cut back because he’s racking up enough innings to put him very close to last years’ total in a few more weeks. Minor? Who knows.
But I keep telling y’all that they sent Cristhian Martinez down, not just to get him work, but to stretch him out. He’s now made three starts at Gwinnett, went five, six and six innings, has a 2.12 ERA a WHIP of 1.0 and has struck out 15 and walked two.
There’s your fill in if Lowe goes to The (maybe ex) Motor City.
braveslifer, yeah I agree most people look at .226 and .274 and think wow that 48 points higher, but in reality it just means he gets a hit 4.8% of the time, which does not sound as high as 48 points.
FW, yes I agree trending in the right direction. I think most teams have a high winning percentage when scoring first, because it eliminates the games were they are shutout. But I think its kinda like that Tim Hudson stat, 120-5 when his team gives him a 4 run lead. That is impressive, but lots of guys have great records in the same situation.
10Paul, yeah you are right, I am sure thats why Lowe starts before Beachy after the break.
I see MLB says that the big issue with a Lowe trade would be salary. No kidding. Paying 75% of his salary and getting what in return. Nothing. That labels the trade as ridiculous and just shows how little value Lowe represents. That is not true at all. Compare his numbers to that of his peers like Burnette and that kind of quote is stupid. Is he worth 15 mil, probably not but certainly worth nothing. Come on.
1,545 comments Add your comment
Frankie Wren
July 18th, 2011
11:04 am
George, he wasn’t listening to you. Using the closer in the 9th inning of a tie game at home is the book move…90% of managers would do that. Last Friday was a road game, in which the possibility of a save in extra innings remained. 90% of managers would NOT use a closer in a tie game on the road unless it went a bunch of innings.
Cosign. George check out how Boston used Papelbon last night, uggh I mean this morning in Tampa.
Snotboogie
July 18th, 2011
11:06 am
The fear of making a bad move hinders risk taking. Worst case scenario: Wren trades Lowe, moves up Minor or Teheran to take his place, they tank, and Lowe goes onto help some team win in the playoffs.
If a possible Lowe trade does give us more financial flexibility this year, one back-up idea could be to pickup a veteran starter in the aug waiver period – this is contingent on the fact that the Braves dont see Minor living up to Lowe’s standards. Usually you have a few no.5 veteran starters available for <2 M. Would that be too complicated?
DCBraveee
July 18th, 2011
11:07 am
“Freeman’s 9th-inning homer pushes Atlanta past scrappy Nationals Sunday for victory.”- AJC
Homer? Where is it?
AtlYnkHtr
July 18th, 2011
11:08 am
Tommy T, good to know that your ability to disagree is limited by the amount in which you can disagree. Kidding of course. As for me, I would trade him to the team that would pay the most of his salary. Your point is that this should never happen and I don’t think any organization can ever afford to say never. If Lowe were 0-10 with a 6 ERA you wouldn’t still do it?
Steve from OH
July 18th, 2011
11:09 am
If Wren moves Lowe, I think it will be to free up salary to add a bat. I see no way the move is made just to free payroll.
I agree. If payroll relief is the reason to move him, I see no reason why that couldn’t be accomplished in November.
George
July 18th, 2011
11:11 am
I did not see freddy hit HR to win game,it was a single.
AtlYnkHtr
July 18th, 2011
11:12 am
Snot, yeah that too, but only if that starter was heading for free agency in 2012.
Steve from OH, teams may not have the same needs/motivation in November. Tigers might be more apt to use guys from the minors or sign a free agent. Do it when you can, learn from the mistake that was made with KK. Don’t get too cute.
Tommy T
July 18th, 2011
11:14 am
If Lowe were 0-10 with a 6 ERA, he probably wouldn’t be a part of a contending teams rotation. My point is contending teams can’t afford to give up wins just for the sake of salary relief (the scenario you laid out).
Steve from OH
July 18th, 2011
11:15 am
Don’t get too cute.
Same advice could apply re: trading Lowe, as well.
Murph
July 18th, 2011
11:15 am
I wanted to get Upton from Tampa Bay until I watched last night’s game… and yes, I watched the entire game. Wasn’t very impressed with his approach at the plate.
DCBraveee
July 18th, 2011
11:21 am
N8:
Wow, so impressed that your mind acted still better than Coach’s at 4:20 in the morning.
I second your point(s).
Afan
July 18th, 2011
11:22 am
looks like the Pirates are making the move for Hunter Pence. Those guys are getting serious!!
Afan
July 18th, 2011
11:24 am
i still think bourn is the one we need.
Mixxo
July 18th, 2011
11:24 am
I wanted to get Upton from Tampa Bay until I watched last night’s game… and yes, I watched the entire game. Wasn’t very impressed with his approach at the plate. — Murph
Guy has a bit of an attitude too as evidenced in his behavior in a game against us a year or two ago. I knew right then, this guy would never fit on the Braves.
Mixxo
July 18th, 2011
11:24 am
The Bucs WANT this!
TennesseePaul
July 18th, 2011
11:25 am
this is contingent on the fact that the Braves dont see Minor living up to Lowe’s standards
I think it would be more contingent on total innings pitched. Minor was exhausted down the stretch last year, hence Beachy came up. All these young guns people wish to slide into Lowe’s spot aren’t going to be capable of putting up the innings that Lowe would have brought the team. That either makes other starters have to pitch more (skipping the fifth starter by utilizing off days) or leaning even more on the bull pen.
With this in mind, Beach has about 100 more innings he can present this season before he crosses the Verducci threshold. That should be just enough to take him to the end of the season, if he continues to average 5-2/3 innings a start… and put him in sketchy land for any potential post season innings.
Brian from SC
July 18th, 2011
11:26 am
OK, since no one wanted to guess, why don’t I just TELL you the answers. Haha.
1. Who are the only two teams that have NEVER won 95 or more games in a season? (Neither have ever finished in first place)
The Rockies and the Marlins
2. Besides the two teams from #1, what is the only other team that has NEVER finished in first place?
The Nationals/Expos
3. Of the remaining teams who have finished in first place at some point, who has gone the longest since doing so?
The Brewers (1982). The Royals (1985) and Tigers (1987) are next in line.
4. The Braves, Yankees, and Cardinals, all consistently good franchises in this era, all finished in last place in 1990. Who are the only two teams whose most recent last place finish was before 1990? This may surprise you. (All teams in MLB have finished last at some point)
Would you believe that it’s the Reds (1983) and the White Sox (1989)?
5. Which team hasn’t had a really bad (95+ losses) team in 98 years?
The Cardinals, who last lost 95 games in 1913. The closest is the Red Sox, who haven’t lost 95 games since 1965.
Murph
July 18th, 2011
11:28 am
The Pirates have to be thinking that they have a winning record for the first time in what, almost 20 years, and that they need to go all-in now.
I like seeing them do well. Those early 90’s matchups between the Braves and Pirates were games for the ages.
AtlYnkHtr
July 18th, 2011
11:29 am
Steve from OH, true, but to me the risk is worth the reward.
Tommy T, So if they had a 10 game lead, I mean I am just trying to walk you back from your statement of NEVER. If you can concede there are times when a team could afford to do it, then the argument becomes are the braves, at present or will they be on 7/31, in a position to take a low risk high reward option?
Afan
July 18th, 2011
11:32 am
i like the mentality of the pirates. You have a chance to win and you go for it. The Braves are always thinking about next year. I like being a contender. But sometimes you just want them to go for it!
David O'Brien
July 18th, 2011
11:32 am
All these young guns people wish to slide into Lowe’s spot aren’t going to be capable of putting up the innings that Lowe would have brought the team. < ?em> — TennesseePaul
In the past, I’d have agree with you. But Lowe has pitched more than 6.0 innings in only two of his past 12 starts, and has worked fewer than six innings in five of his past nine.
Steve from OH
July 18th, 2011
11:33 am
Steve from OH, true, but to me the risk is worth the reward.
For purely financial gain from this point until the end of the season, it is not. I’d much rather have Lowe pitching in September than Minor. If we use the money to upgrade elsewhere, then yes.
N8
July 18th, 2011
11:34 am
“I also happen to do my homework, unlike N8 who makes it a habit to talk out his a-ss most of the time.” Coach
Coach accusing somebody of talking out of their ass is almost as ridiculous as Fuzzy Zoeller being offended by a racist joke.
“Comparing Derek Lowe to Doyle Alexander? Yes. Because unlike the nonsense written by N8 I happen to actually know who Alexander is. His record was 5-10 when traded with an ERA of 4.13.”
Yup. I know how to look up stats too coach. Did you bother noticing that behind only Zane Smith, Alexander was the 2nd best pitcher on that staff and close to being the Ace.
If Mike Minor was up full time and Fredi went with a 6 man rotation, Lowe would be #6 on the depth chart in terms of productivity. 5th at best. I only say 6th, because I assume if Minor was GIVEN the job and didn’t have to worry about being sent up or down after every other start, his production would likely rise with his relaxation.
So yeah…. keep trying to compare what Derek Lowe means to this staff, to what Doyle meant to that staff.
It’s not even close. Doyle was only expendable, because Bobby was setting up the rotation for the future.
Derek is expendable AND the team is trying to win right now.
N8
July 18th, 2011
11:37 am
“In the past, I’d have agree with you. But Lowe has pitched more than 6.0 innings in only two of his past 12 starts, and has worked fewer than six innings in five of his past nine.” DOB
Don’t bother trying to talk reality with some of these guys DOB. Don’tcha know that Lowe is money and Minor sucks? Come on. Try and keep up.
Fargo
July 18th, 2011
11:37 am
morning denizens!
have y’all seen that Scott Diamond is starting for the Twinkies tonight!?
AtlYnkHtr
July 18th, 2011
11:38 am
10Paul, but wouldn’t you expect Minor to be able to extend his innings from last year? Is he on a pace already to exceed last year by more than 40 or so? They could always take it easy on him for the next few starts in AAA.
Tommy T
July 18th, 2011
11:40 am
AtlYnkHtr:
I don’t need to be walked back from my statement by you or anyone else. If a contending team has any conceivable lead on 7/31 (be it 10 games or 25 games), they shouldn’t sacrifice wins for salary relief. Those type of moves are made by losing teams or in the offseason. Do you think the Mets thought their lead was insurmountable in ‘07 (I believe) when they were up 7 with 17 left? Three weeks later, they were lamenting every single game they lost. If the Braves want to win a championship, any move has to be made to make the team better this season, not improve the bottom line.
AtlYnkHtr
July 18th, 2011
11:43 am
Steve from OH, So if we had a 10 game lead in the wild card on 7/31 you don’t pull that trigger? You think replacing 10 Lowe starts with 10 Minor starts wouldnt (in terms of not making the playoffs) be worth saving $19 or $20 million dollars? Or do you think Lowe is going to be counted on in October?
Fargo
July 18th, 2011
11:44 am
N8,
was your boy’s baseball tourney in town this weekend?
I noticed the 13 yr old tourney by my house this weekend.
brought back many memories…
ncscoots
July 18th, 2011
11:46 am
If the Braves want to win a championship, any move has to be made to make the team better this season, not improve the bottom line.
That kinda depends on the FO’s definition of “better”, doesn’t it? I mean, risk/reward evaluation is what they’re paid to do, especially at this time of the year. There are just so many variables (most of them unknown to us here in the forum) that could impact on such a decision, that it’s easy for me to see both sides of a Lowe trade.
TennesseePaul
July 18th, 2011
11:46 am
In the past, I’d have agree with you. But Lowe has pitched more than 6.0 innings in only two of his past 12 starts, and has worked fewer than six innings in five of his past nine
It isn’t so much to match what Lowe would do as it would be to fill in for Lowe. Take Teheran, he has already pitched 104 1/3 innings and will max out at less than 175 innings, making him not an option for down the stretch. Minor has tossed 115 so far and will max out at about before the end of the season. Beachy will max out, on regular rest for the remainder of the season, right at the end of the season. Trade Lowe and these young guns aren’t going to be available to pitch to the end of the year as their innings will be maxed. Or, they will pitch and the team will risk injuring them making next year more dicey.
cricket
July 18th, 2011
11:47 am
i like the mentality of the pirates.
what did the pirates do?
Steve from OH
July 18th, 2011
11:47 am
Steve from OH, So if we had a 10 game lead in the wild card on 7/31 you don’t pull that trigger? You think replacing 10 Lowe starts with 10 Minor starts wouldnt (in terms of not making the playoffs) be worth saving $19 or $20 million dollars? Or do you think Lowe is going to be counted on in October?
I don’t think that’s the argument, the 10 game lead. And again, I think we’ll be able to get rid of him in the offseason. So in my view, it’s simply the cost savings for the remainder of the season.
That said, I think Wren gets more back for him than salary relief, or that Wren uses the savings to improve the club elsewhere. Probably a moot point.
AtlYnkHtr
July 18th, 2011
11:48 am
Tommy T, I could not disagree with that more than I do. The odds, yes it happens once every 20 or 30 years, are so miniscule that to not do that trade because something historic might happen, is the worst management philosophy there is. It would be like you not going out in the rain because you might get struck by lightining.
N8
July 18th, 2011
11:50 am
Fargo, yeah it was. He’s in the 12 year old division. They won their first game and lost their 2nd to Dickinson (who they have never beat in the two years my son has been on the team), and then lost yesterday morning as well. We’re back home now.
Sucks. We assumed they’d do better. But in a way I’m fine with it. I have air conditioning where I’m at right now. LOL.
Tommy T
July 18th, 2011
11:52 am
ncscoots:
I agree on the number of variables to trading Lowe and also think that it’s 50/50 that it will happen. I simply think that if the move is made, there will be a corresponding move to improve the offense. I don’t see Wren moving Lowe just to dump salary. Contending teams just don’t do that. The only time I remember it happening was ‘97 when the White Sox moved Danny Darwin and a couple of other arms to the Giants when they were only three or so games out. The White Sox got hammered for raising the white flag and finished six out in second place.
Murph
July 18th, 2011
11:53 am
Beachy > Lowe
Fargo
July 18th, 2011
11:53 am
N8, Isn’t this weather brutal?
the trees in my front yard are going to start having moss hanging from them!
its awful.
I’m sorry to hear that Dickinson got the best of your boy’s squad, sounds like they are starting to establish a nice rivalry.
And for the record, I’ve got your back on your assessment of the Lowe rumors.
braveslifer
July 18th, 2011
11:54 am
“i like the mentality of the pirates. You have a chance to win and you go for it. The Braves are always thinking about next year. I like being a contender. But sometimes you just want them to go for it!”
That is an unfortunate statement. The last time the Pirates had a winning season was 1992. I think I will side with the Braves mentality.
MikeInFl
July 18th, 2011
11:55 am
I agree. If payroll relief is the reason to move him, I see no reason why that couldn’t be accomplished in November.
I don’t think you can assume that. If he struggles through the rest of ‘11, forget anybody taking him for next season. In addition to what DOB posted, his K rate has been really down the past month and a half.
I’m not saying “he’s done.” But if the Braves feel he’s sliding, right now is the time to do it. May be the only chance.
Of course on the flip side, he occasionally seems to remember how to pitch effectively (I don’t mean that in a snarky way) and rebounds. It’s just a tough call. I’d move him, if the opportunity arises, and look to add a good bat in CF or SS for this year and next.
TennesseePaul
July 18th, 2011
11:56 am
but wouldn’t you expect Minor to be able to extend his innings from last year? Is he on a pace already to exceed last year by more than 40 or so?
He would be if brought up to replace Lowe in the rotation. Lowe has about 15 more starts headed his way, barring any skippage in the rotation. Asumption, Lowe is traded today, a young pitcher is called up to replace him.
Minor could pitch those 15 starts without exceeding his previous season’s limit by over 35 innings, if he didn’t go more than 5 innings in each start, thus taxing the pen even more.
Teheran could do it if he didn’t pitch more than 4.2 innings per start.
And that’s giving Beachy all his remaining starts while trying to keep him under an increase of 35 innings from last year… (Beachy could do this, but he’d be finished at the end of the season, post-season innings would propel him well past his limit).
Maybe the Braves do their innings growth differently. But using that rule of thumb, all these guys who are listed to step in Lowe’s spot, are all going to be maxed out making it complicated and risky to use them.
Fleming
July 18th, 2011
11:56 am
AtlYnkHtr
What does the lead 7/31 have to do with anything. Come October there is no lead everyone starts off 0-0
AtlYnkHtr
July 18th, 2011
11:56 am
10Paul, so if Beachy maxes out (based on Tom Verducci’s theory) at the end of the season. At most he would get two starts in the playoffs so 12 or 13 more innings in the best case scenario. I don’t think Tom’s theory has proven to be that rigid. I am sure the margin of error is within a few starts. Minor wouldn’t be on the playoff roster, given no more injuries and Teheran could be moved to the pen.
Steve from OH, yeah I agree, I don’t think Wren is that much of an outside the box thinker. That’s why I originally said the Lowe trade has to be tied to a bat, and one big enough to be paid about what Lowe is getting paid.
AtlYnkHtr
July 18th, 2011
11:59 am
fleming, none of the guys we are discussing, without injuries of course, would play any key role for sure (maybe even have 0 role) in the playoffs.
Snotboogie
July 18th, 2011
11:59 am
Don’t bother trying to talk reality with some of these guys DOB. Don’tcha know that Lowe is money and Minor sucks? Come on. Try and keep up.
For the most part, except Coach, everyone is just discussing the different aspects of a possible trade. Plenty of scope for new points to be added without issues.
Frankie Wren
July 18th, 2011
11:59 am
Does Lowe have in him still what he brought in September? Granted he was huge down the stretch last year but lets not get carried away with the experience factor. Not sure what his record is when starting games this year but right now, he may not even be a 4th starter. Beachy pre-DL gets the ball in game 4 for me. Experience is great but Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and the rookie Lefty did okay last fall. Lowe is not Schilling. Totally agree keep him if it is just for salary relief, but if you can get something in return? Yeah do it.
N8
July 18th, 2011
12:00 pm
Fargo, yeah this weather is tough. I imagine it’s similar to what the Braves go through this time of year. But considering our weather has been so putrid and below normal temps, it seems so over the top.
Dickinson’s program is so good. They are one of the few programs around here that work year round with their squad. Our group didn’t even start practicing together until May and it showed. I’ll be curious to see how they compete with each other in the next few years. The 12 year old division is the final age group where they are coached by dad’s willing to volunteer. So a lot of favoritism going round.
So once our boys are hooked up in the 13 year old division with some “real” coaches (they used local college kids to work with the 13-15 year olds), I think it will be a game changer for them. Lot of silly decisions made this weekend.
Thanks for having my back. Somebody has to, right? LOL
MikeInFl
July 18th, 2011
12:01 pm
September you expand the roster and can mix ‘n match Minor, Martinez, Teheran, Delgado, etc. Not that we’re likely to see all those guys, but you’ve got a lot of options for the last month of the season. And, after a brutal stretch in July and early August, we get some days off in the last half of August and September, so fifth starter role could be minimalized.
TennesseePaul
July 18th, 2011
12:02 pm
The other side of this analysis is, Minor, Teheran and Beachy will all be in position next year to theoretically be available for 200+ innings. That is of course, assuming they attain their innings levels this year and are in good health next season. So they would be viable candidates to replace Lowe 195 innings for 2012 and beyond. This season though it could be potentially taxing on these young arms to force them into that type of load. Taxing on them and the rest of the major league staff.
chatt matt
July 18th, 2011
12:02 pm
Pittsburgh is a great baseball town.After all these years of struggling lets hope they can pull it out.
Weezle
July 18th, 2011
12:04 pm
I don’t trust Minor yet. Dude gives up too many hits. .290 BAA in majors this year. Even in AAA, 3 starts in July: 16 innings, 19 hits (including 3 homers), 5 walks, and only 12 strikeouts. Not ready. I think this kid is tired again, just like last year.
Don’t forget that even if Lowe doesn’t start in the postseason, he’s an experienced relief pitcher.
TennesseePaul
July 18th, 2011
12:04 pm
so fifth starter role could be minimalized.
Right. And right now, Beachy is that fifth starter who’s work load would be managed if Lowe is not traded. If Lowe is traded you have to find a way to minimize the work load of two starters. It’d take more than an off-day to do such a thing. You could do it by having Teheran and Minor tag-team as starters, but then you have them pitching on extended rest as well as maxing out innings. It could potentially do damage to get them off rhythm.
dan osullivan
July 18th, 2011
12:06 pm
Jurrjens, Vizcaino, Hoover, McLouth, Schaffer, Bethancourt for Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn
Gimpah
July 18th, 2011
12:06 pm
Is it true opposing players have been complaining about McCann ripping ‘em in between pitches? And they’re calling for ‘mandatory’ fabric softener sheets to be inserted by the ump prior to squatting? Do tell.
George
July 18th, 2011
12:07 pm
Tommy T 11:40
CO-SIGN
TennesseePaul
July 18th, 2011
12:09 pm
so if Beachy maxes out (based on Tom Verducci’s theory) at the end of the season. At most he would get two starts in the playoffs so 12 or 13 more innings in the best case scenario.
Well AYH, by the term “maxes out” he wouldn’t get any starts. He’d be maxed out.
The team could push them a bit further. They may have some other system they go by. I don’t know. I utilized the commonly available system as my premise. After watching Medlen though, I think they may be a little more cautious with these arms than before.
jeffrey d
July 18th, 2011
12:09 pm
That is some trade
TennesseePaul
July 18th, 2011
12:12 pm
Plus, the team saw what Minor brought to the table when he was exhausted/maxed out last season. It’s what eventually brought Beachy to the table. Beachy’s DL stint actually allowed him to go deeper into the season.
Murph
July 18th, 2011
12:17 pm
That is some trade
You’re going to have to be more specific…
jeffrey d
July 18th, 2011
12:19 pm
Jurrjens, Vizcaino, Hoover, McLouth, Schaffer, Bethancourt for Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn
That is some trade.
Afan
July 18th, 2011
12:19 pm
mlbtraderumors does not have lowe listed for Detroits top 3. so i dont see lowe going anywhere now.
the yankees want ubaldo. If the yankees want someone they usually do what it takes to get them.
the pirates are pursuing Hunter Pence and I can see that happening. Or Aramis Ramirez. They are preparing themselves for a run at the pennant.
While our Braves have no rumors of upgrades. We just sit and wonder…
Snotboogie
July 18th, 2011
12:20 pm
Of course on the flip side, he occasionally seems to remember how to pitch effectively (I don’t mean that in a snarky way) and rebounds
That’s the part that bothers me the most. He can occasionally do that – but do we know that he hasnt slipped enough over the last couple of months to still do it? We cant be sure that he will be that veteran presence, come October. What if he doesnt remember and we are left with a guy who goes 5 innings every start and gives up 3-4 runs?
MikeInFl
July 18th, 2011
12:21 pm
TP, fair points, though I don’t think the Verducci effect needs to be applied quite so rigorously. And I also think that Christhian Martinez may very well be in the mix if we need another starter. Quite possibly the first one given the ball.
But, I don’t mean to overstate my case … I can certainly see both sides of the argument.
AtlYnkHtr
July 18th, 2011
12:22 pm
10Paul, I think going beyond the “max” (sorry shoulda put that in quotes for the literal minded) by 12 or 13 innings only, falls under the definition of cautious and not “propel him way past” as you said. Oh and Beachy is the 5th starter in name only.
AtlYnkHtr
July 18th, 2011
12:24 pm
Afan, no rumors of upgrades for the braves? MLBtraderumors is the end all be all? Why do you think we are discussing the possible trade of Lowe?
T for Texas
July 18th, 2011
12:27 pm
While our Braves have no rumors of upgrades.
After the Furcal debacle FW seems to have made a strict policy of mum’s the word. The first news of the Lowe talks came out of Detroit, only to be later confirmed by DOB. It is very doubtful that Frank intends to stay pat and take this exact roster forward the rest of the season.
Snotboogie
July 18th, 2011
12:27 pm
If the tigers are indeed looking seriously at Guthrie, moving Lowe wouldnt be easy. Guthrie’s numbers look very similar to Lowe’s (both have an 89 ERA+) but is much cheaper. The prospect cost would be heavier than Lowe’s, which might be the issue with the deal, if any.
Travis
July 18th, 2011
12:27 pm
I have to believe that Lowe would be harder to trade in the off season if he continues to decline. There will be a lot more pitchers available come winter and for a lot less than 15mil. If the Tigers think they can win it all this season with Lowe in the rotation then it might be the right move for both clubs. The Braves got Lowe when they needed someone to anchor the staff after a horrible season the year before. They needed innings eaters that could give them solid 7 inning starts. Lowe isn’t that player anymore but he is reliable and the Tigers need reliable right now. Might happen and all things measure, maybe it should.
UGA 1999
July 18th, 2011
12:31 pm
Test
UGA 1999
July 18th, 2011
12:31 pm
So who is the big stick the Braves would make a run for? And where would you put him?
UGA 1999
July 18th, 2011
12:31 pm
So who is the big stick the Braves would make a run for? And where would you put him?
UGA 1999
July 18th, 2011
12:31 pm
So who is the big stick the Braves would make a run for? And where would you put him?
Frankie Wren
July 18th, 2011
12:33 pm
Sorry guys changing it up for a minute and back to the leadoff dilemma.
Schafer’s line batting in the 1st inning is .342 .432 .474(.906). Out of the 31 runs he has scored, almost a third in the First inning(9). Now the important part. The Braves are 38-10 when they score first. 38-10! Might be a telling sign to if they don’t make a deal.
Jeff R
July 18th, 2011
12:36 pm
“Trading” Lowe might be using the word loosely. More like a salary dump. If Lowe is declining as much as some say here, then, I suppose dumping his contract and salvaging something from it is a good thing. But is Lowe performing that much off his previous Braves’ seasons?
Afan
July 18th, 2011
12:37 pm
you could put a big stick in left while prado is out. You could get one for center or right field. Heyward is batting .226.
basically while prado is at third our whole outfield could be upgraded.
Arkansas Transplant
July 18th, 2011
12:37 pm
Minor > Lowe
Nova Scotia Steve
July 18th, 2011
12:38 pm
Tigers want Braves to pick up around 75 percent of the $21 million owed to Lowe for this year and next. Not what the Braves are looking for at all.
If they have to pay that much. Keep him. They’ll be better for it IMO.
Jason BAY
July 18th, 2011
12:40 pm
If all else fails , trade Lowe for Jason Bay. Two overpaid players needing a new home
cabravesfan
July 18th, 2011
12:43 pm
Despite what some on the blog think or want, the Braves are not about to give up on a 21 year old kid because he’s struggling. And they are not going to be looking for a big bat for left field because that would cause a problem when Chipper returns.
Afan
July 18th, 2011
12:46 pm
no one wants to get rid of Heyward. But at what point does his .226 average become a concern.
CF can be upgraded and SS.
Mixxo
July 18th, 2011
12:48 pm
A “big stick” needs to go to RF.
That’s what.
Better’n no stick.
AtlYnkHtr
July 18th, 2011
12:50 pm
Frankie Wren, not sure 38-10 is all that impressive, I mean how does that compare to other teams? That’s about 20% points higher than their overall winning percentage, so are most teams 20% points higher?
Also, not sure how that relates to not making a deal when you said “Might be a telling sign to if they don’t make a deal.”
cabravesfan
July 18th, 2011
12:50 pm
Afan-
wasn’t directed at you. But, yes, people have suggested we trade Jason or go after another right fielder. To me, his .226 average becomes a concern if it lasts more then just this year.
Benito
July 18th, 2011
12:56 pm
FIRST!!
Murph
July 18th, 2011
12:59 pm
while prado is at third our whole outfield could be upgraded.
You mean for the next week? Trade a quality pitcher or prospects for someone to fill in until Chipper is back? Hmmmmmmm… I’m going to go with… no. No, but I like that you’re thinking outside the box. Let’s table this for now and I’ll talk it over with my colleagues.
George
July 18th, 2011
12:59 pm
Amazing how the BRAVES have overrated and over hyped JASON. After all the hype I expected him to at least hit .270 with about 25 to 30 HRs. FREDDY by far has proved to be the better player of the two of them
TennesseePaul
July 18th, 2011
1:00 pm
Oh and Beachy is the 5th starter in name only.
Agreed in part. I do think though that, if the season continues with no Lowe trade and his innings are climbing fast, he’ll be treated as the “fifth starter” and have a turn skipped. He starts going deeper into games, his innings totals will climb faster. It wouldn’t be because they don’t trust him or anything. It’d only be to manage his innings totals in attempts to prevent injuries.
But yes, he is not the fifth starter in terms of quality of pitcher.
MikeFL, yeah. They could trade Lowe and plug these young guys in in some way. I just object to the assertion that is as simple as it seems to be stated, Trade Lowe, call up Minor. There are a lot more variables to this which come into play which would tend to lean more against a trade than for it. But nothing seems to out-right prohibit a trade or encourage a trade.
Frankie Wren
July 18th, 2011
1:01 pm
AtlYnkHtr
Don’t know how that compares to MLB as a whole. 38-10 sounds impressive though. Schafer doing what he did yesterday in the first inning is a good recipe for success. Baby steps man, 3 straight games coaxing base on balls.
ncscoots
July 18th, 2011
1:02 pm
But, yes, people have suggested we trade Jason or go after another right fielder.
Not to worry. Stupy is not catching, luckily.
Heyward had a very good August last year, and even with some tailing off in September, still had an .800 OPS that month. He just has to tinker with whatever is ailing his swing (and hopefully, it isn’t because of some compensation for his shoulder or anything like that) and he’ll be fine.
And no, he isn’t too far off the plate.
braveslifer
July 18th, 2011
1:03 pm
Why are people so worried about Heyward’s BA at .226 and in love with Prado’s BA at .274? All you have to do is look at the more meaningful stat of OBP and both players are about the same at .318 & .319. Both players mean so much to the Braves and talks about trading either are just wasted breaths.
Afan
July 18th, 2011
1:04 pm
I think the problem with Heyward is he has the worst swing i have ever seen. lol
George
July 18th, 2011
1:06 pm
BTW I am not saying trade JASON unless we could get McCutchen to play CF for HIM.
cabravesfan
July 18th, 2011
1:06 pm
George-
So what happens if Freddie has a Sophomore season like Jason is having right now? It’s possible. Will people be demanding we find a new first baseman next season?
ncscoots
July 18th, 2011
1:07 pm
Why are people so worried about Heyward’s BA at .226 and in love with Prado’s BA at .274? All you have to do is look at the more meaningful stat of OBP and both players are about the same at .318 & .319.
Prado’s BA/OBP gap is about right for him, historically. A little low, but not all that much. Maybe that’s part of it. Both of them are putting more balls in play this season, it would seem.
Tommy T
July 18th, 2011
1:07 pm
cabravesfan @ 1:06
In relation to this blog, the answer to your question is probably.
Lew
July 18th, 2011
1:08 pm
I didn’t think they’d trade Lowe midseason, but if DOB says the rumor has legs, I’ll listen to him on the situation.
All this talk about Minor or Teheran. Teheran’s about to get cut back because he’s racking up enough innings to put him very close to last years’ total in a few more weeks. Minor? Who knows.
But I keep telling y’all that they sent Cristhian Martinez down, not just to get him work, but to stretch him out. He’s now made three starts at Gwinnett, went five, six and six innings, has a 2.12 ERA a WHIP of 1.0 and has struck out 15 and walked two.
There’s your fill in if Lowe goes to The (maybe ex) Motor City.
Ease
July 18th, 2011
1:08 pm
We could always just sign Pujols as a fall back option.
AtlYnkHtr
July 18th, 2011
1:08 pm
braveslifer, yeah I agree most people look at .226 and .274 and think wow that 48 points higher, but in reality it just means he gets a hit 4.8% of the time, which does not sound as high as 48 points.
FW, yes I agree trending in the right direction. I think most teams have a high winning percentage when scoring first, because it eliminates the games were they are shutout. But I think its kinda like that Tim Hudson stat, 120-5 when his team gives him a 4 run lead. That is impressive, but lots of guys have great records in the same situation.
10Paul, yeah you are right, I am sure thats why Lowe starts before Beachy after the break.
cabravesfan
July 18th, 2011
1:09 pm
Tommy T-
Sadly, You are most likely right. C’est La Vie
Travis
July 18th, 2011
1:09 pm
I see MLB says that the big issue with a Lowe trade would be salary. No kidding. Paying 75% of his salary and getting what in return. Nothing. That labels the trade as ridiculous and just shows how little value Lowe represents. That is not true at all. Compare his numbers to that of his peers like Burnette and that kind of quote is stupid. Is he worth 15 mil, probably not but certainly worth nothing. Come on.