On that we’re agreed, and here’s hoping our financial gamble becomes a ‘CRIME DOG’ rather than a NATE McLOUTH. Nothing I would love to see more than a 30+ homer season from UGGLA even if the OBP is miniscule.
Jair Jurrjens is a good pitcher but many of you act like he is as good as Cole Hamels or Justin Verlander. He is not THAT good. His BABIP this year is .270. His FIP is 3.32 which indicates that he is due for a slight 2nd half regression. His GB% (ground ball percentage) has gone down as the season has gone along. With his meager K/9 of 5.17 that is another bad sign. If the Braves could get an equivalent top tier right-handed centerfielder they would be stupid not to trade him. However, I don’t think the front office would even remotely consider trading him until the offseason.
JT Grace, the problem is I think most front offices realize Jurrjens is probably pitching a bit over his head so far this season and they aren’t going to give up a centerfielder of equal value with a contract the Braves can deal with.
IMHO the Braves should pursue a right handed version of Jordan Schafer. Someone like Rajai Davis of the Jays. These two guys could platoon to make CF a position of strength for the Braves.
I don’t see a trade for Bourn because he is a lefty who gets killed by lefty pitching. He also would cost more prospects that what I would be willing to pay. Reed Johnson would make more sense if you want an every day player to totally replace McLouth/Schafer.
I still can’t believe people are advocating trading JJ…He’s our best pitcher. Would the Phillies trade Halladay? We have JJ for 2 more ARB years…..If anything, we should re-sign JJ and Hanson in the off-season when Lowe and Chipper come off the books…
We have PLENTY of pitching PROSPECTS to trade and McOut…TRADE them
Shaun, I agree. I don’t think any team gives up a player for JJ equivalent to what the Braves feel he is worth. My point is that they should do it if given the opportunity.
Jurrjens is a top 5 pitcher in the Majors and will be for the rest of his career as long as he stays healthy. When he has be healthy he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. I’m not sure he’d pitching over his head. He really is this good. The only time he’s really struggled has been because of injuries.
That being said, no way the Braves would trade him. He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball and will continue to be so.
Changing subject, where would this team be if they had a decent offense this year? Best record in baseball? Best team in baseball? What do you think?
I had the good fortune of being at all 3 games vs. the Mariners. Gotta love that sweep. I was two rows behind the Braves dugout, so it was in interesting perspective. The thing that jumped off the page was that not once in 3 games did Larry Parrish say a single word to a player. He was standing alone (except for a couple of times when he was with Jeff Porter). Am I wrong to think that at least once over 3 games there would have been some comment from him to a player? I know Fredi has said it isn’t a coaching problem, but it sure doesn’t seem that Parrish has established any kind of a relationship with any of the players. What’s your thought DOB?
Nothing I would love to see more than a 30+ homer season from UGGLA even if the OBP is miniscule
I don’t know about the ‘plus’, but 25-30 this year would be great. He’s starting to hit them a little more regular like and could very well end up with 30 this year. We’ll see. His second half can’t be as bad as his first half. I don’t think that is possible.
DAP and Murph, the problem with AGon is that he’s an older player under contract through this season. So the only teams that would want him are contenders that are desperate for a shortstop or would like to upgrade defensively. But those teams would want AGon because they don’t have a shortstop, so the Braves probably wouldn’t get a decent shortstop in return. They would be forced to go with Diory Hernandez or Brandon Hicks or someone like that who is not going to provide any more value than AGon; probably less value.
Phil, Jurrjens is not remotely comparable to Greg Maddux. Greg’s FIP was almost always extremely comparable to his ERA, indicating luck played no factor in his success. He also had an outstanding GB%.
I know I am a dreamer, or at least, an optimist…but I would love a rotation of JJ, Hanson, Tehran, and 2 best of Beachy, Minor, Medlen, Delgato, Vizcaino, etc. I realize $$$ will be an issue, with or without Scott Boras, but if the Braves will spend anywhere, it will be pitching.
ESPN reporting that Hamels will make his next start. Not that I’d ever root for an injury, but it would have been nice to have the Phillies slowed down just a little bit.
Funny how people are saying that Jurrjens is pitching over his head and that he’s going to come back to earth. Didn’t they say that the first two years of his career? Why can’t people accept the fact that he knows how to pitch and has gotten better each healthy season (excluding last year’s injury plagued season). Yeah, he doesn’t throw 98 or strike out a lot of guys like most aces but who cares. Getting outs and preventing runs from scoring is what’s most important. And he’s pretty much done that better than anyone this year. UNCBrave- Chipper and Lowe are still under contract next year. Chipper might retire and Lowe may get traded but two big “ifs”.
This team will be better in the second half but be certain that the Phils will go on a 40 win-10 loss run.
Prado, Uggla, and Heyward will contribute more in the second half just by showing up. Chip will miss one out of every 4 games. The centerfield delimma needs to be resolved.
I’ve never understood why the word luck and Jurrjens seem to always be synonymous.
The guy isn’t lucky, he’s just clutch as heck. He is cool under pressure with runners on base, he doesn’t get rattled and he gets guys to put the ball in play and make outs.
You don’t have to strike everyone out to be a great pitcher. Just get them to weakly hit balls where you want them to. Jair has consistently done that over a long period of time.
shaun the problem with AGon is that he’s an older player under contract through this season. So the only teams that would want him are contenders that are desperate for a shortstop or would like to upgrade defensively. But those teams would want AGon because they don’t have a shortstop, so the Braves probably wouldn’t get a decent shortstop in return.
i dont see this as a problem. the braves wouldnt need to trade gonzo for a SS. it has already been discussed that their trading chip is pitching.
Sometimes, we forget that peripherals are just that: peripherals. A guy has one year in which he outpitches his peripherals, that’s a fluke. He does it two years, it’s maybe coincidence. He does it with regularity, then he’s just pure-dee good.
Glavine, just for example has a career BABIP of about .280, and his FIP regularly hovered around 3.50 or below, in his prime. Plus a K rate regularly below six and a half. He worked out OK.
Trading Jurrjens before the team finds out if his two excellent years are coincidence or pure-dee good probably wouldn’t be the brightest move.
“I do not think for one minute that his agent is going to be a hindrance to his future with this team. If Jurrjens keeps this up until he hits free agency, he’ll draw a lot of attention and big contracts offers, even if he had your run of the mill assclown working for him.”T-Paul
Haven’t paid much attention to how the Braves operate or how Boras operates, have you?
The Braves like to lock up their young players BEFORE free agency and even are willing to “buy out” their arbitration years. As maid evident by Mac’s contract and the similar offer to Francoeur (think he wishes he accepted that deal now?).
Boras despises giving up the arbitration years for his clients. So JJJ’s arbitration years and an extension being done in the near future is unlikely.
You are correct. Any assclown could get JJ big money when free agency hits if he keeps this up. JJJ could do it without an agent save the commission check.
But only an agent with the balls of Boras plays hardball from the get go of arbitration and fights hard for his players to ride out their “rookie” contracts until free agency, promising bigger dollars at the other end of the rainbow, and most of the time he’s dead on.
If you think these facts don’t hinder Wren’s ability to easily lock up JJJ longterm, you’re crazy. No offense.
Then when you add in the factor that our offense is putrid and we have pitchng galore coming up from the minors and back from injury, JJJ makes perfect off-season trade bait.
Doesn’t mean he WILL for sure be traded, or that he WON’T be extended (or simply kept around and be allowed to go through the arbitration process).
But common sense, paying attention to past similar scenarios and assessing the Braves needs and surplus tells anybody that is paying attention that Jurrjens is more likely to be traded in between now and the 2013 season, and possibly before the 2012 season with a VERY slim chance of it maybe happening (for the right deal) in the next month.
You don’t have to strike everyone out to be a great pitcher. Just get them to weakly hit balls where you want them to. Jair has consistently done that over a long period of time.
The reason people doubt Jair is because they don’t believe the pitcher has control over where the batter hits the ball. It’s also worth noting that his ERA is 2.57 points LESS than it was last year, in a year that he made 20 starts despite the injuries. While I think he’s a very good pitcher, I do think there is a decent amount of luck involved for him to post a 2.07 ERA at this point in the season.
shaun, i cant help but think i must have missed your point. it doesnt make sense that you would think we need to find a team that will want half a year of gonzalez for a better SS.
Trading Jurrgens for any centerfielder would equal the Barker for Butler trade ( the most infamous trade in the history of major league baseball). I will rather see me play center field for the Braves than give up Jurrgens. Now if you want to talk sense, could we discuss trading Jurrgens for Cliff Lee ? That’s an equal deal.
MFin04, I love Jurrjens and I’m glad he’s done what he’s done, but I can’t see him being a top 5 pitcher in the majors for the rest of the season.
Changing subject, where would this team be if they had a decent offense this year? Best record in baseball? Best team in baseball? What do you think?
If they had been a league-average offense, I think they would be right with the Phillies or maybe a game or a few back from the Phillies. If the Phillies offense has been any better than the Braves, it’s not been by very much at all. And while the Braves’ pitching has been awesome, the Phillies’ has been better. So I don’t think it’s clear that the Braves would necessarily be ahead of the Phillies but they would be right there, at least a lot closer than they are now.
The frustrating thing about Jurrjens for me is that everyone acts like 2010 didn’t happen. Now, I don’t think he’s nearly as bad as his 2010 numbers indicate, and I think he’s probably pretty close to his 2009 numbers. But NOBODY is as good as his 2011 numbers have been so far this year. Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Bob Gibson….nobody.
You can count me in the boat that would accept Wren trading JJJ for an “equal” bat (that is under our control for a few years).
But that has way more to do with me thinking we need another bat and have a surplus of pitching (and he’s the “chip” that would bring the biggest return).
Rather than me saying trade him because he really isn’t very good and has only been lucky. That’s just silly.
Lucky or good, if Wren decided to put him on the market, teams would line up for him and Wren could pick between the offers. If none of them were good enough to move him, there could be MUCH worse options than being forced to keep him until he hits free agency. LOL
I’ll say this about Jose Reyes. He is oft too injured to give him a huge contact $100+mil for probably 6+years. But he’s going to get it anyway….
He’d be the perfect fit for the Braves. He’s exactly what they are lacking. It’s too bad the team doesn’t spend like it should to win a world series. Only so often are there players that can make a championship-type difference to a team and I believe Reyes is that for the Braves. The sad thing is, the Braves probably know it and see it but they still won’t spend the money.
Just to bring a little sanity/reality to this discussion, I’d like to quote verbatim what Buster wrote, the item in his blog that set off this whole Jurrjens trade discussion:
Some rival executives have wondered if that pitching depth would allow Atlanta to consider a very bold move with a pitcher whose stock has reached its zenith — Jair Jurrjens, who is 10-3 with a 2.07 ERA and a midseason candidate for the Cy Young Award. If the Braves actually dangled Jurrjens in the market, they could put themselves in position to get an impact offensive position player in return.
Just to reiterate: All the discussion among rival evaluators about Jurrjens is pure speculation.
Please read the first five words and the last sentence again. Again, people read something and interpret it as they see fit — twist it, exaggerate it, strengthen it, then work off that new baseline as if that’s what was actually written.
People that point to Jair and luck obviously don’t watch him pitch. He consistently gets out of jams. And the times he has had low ERAs he has been healthy, and the times his ERA has been high has been when he was plagued with injuries.
This year he finally is healthy, and look at that, he leads the league in Wins and ERA. Its really not surprising. The guy has been consistently good for the Braves when healthy. The years he has been healthy he has had ERAs of 3.68, 2.60, and this year 2.07. He seems to actually be getting better every year and if he can stay healthy, I believe he will only get better in time.
He’d be the perfect fit for the Braves. He’s exactly what they are lacking. It’s too bad the team doesn’t spend like it should to win a world series. Only so often are there players that can make a championship-type difference to a team and I believe Reyes is that for the Braves. The sad thing is, the Braves probably know it and see it but they still won’t spend the money.
There are two types of currency in baseball: dollars and players. While the Braves won’t spend the dollars to sign Reyes long term (nor should they), they could very easily spend the players to acquire him for this year, if they choose to.
“Trading Jurrgens for any centerfielder would equal the Barker for Butler trade ( the most infamous trade in the history of major league baseball).”wreckmaniac
I bet there are some Jeff Bagwell fans in Boston that would argue that comment. And even though Doyle Alexander got the Tigers to the ALCS and had a fine season the next year for them, I’d bet plenty of their fans would have “sacrificed” 1987 & 1988 for almost 20 years of John Smoltz.
Bret Butler was a fine player and we definitely missed him (along with Barker being a huge bust). But come on dude. Keep it real.
Phillies announcer just made the statement that the best thing about this game with Boston was the fans just got the chance to boo JD Drew. All class there, Phils.
It’s clear as day that JJ wasn’t right in 2010. He wasn’t ever at 100%
And there is no guarantee that he will be in the future. I’m just saying that an ERA of barely 2.00 is not sustainable long term. Doesn’t mean that he can’t keep and ERA of 3.00 or 2.50, either of which would be among the best in the game.
“Just to bring a little sanity/reality to this discussion…”DOB
First of all, this blog would be boring as hell if it was filled with sanity and reality. Don’t bogart are wave DOB.
Secondly, I didn’t need that mis-interpreted quote from Olney to spark this conversation. Been having it (in a reasonably and civil manner) since last winter. Just thought I’d jump in again.
As I stated earlier. The topic of trades, possible free agent targets and what not is SO much more fun to have when we are already a good team and online to make the playoffs as the WC.
Maybe I missed some posts. But I don’t think anybody has gotten really snarky over the discussion. It’s actually been one of the better “arguments” on here in days. Everybody being pretty nice to eachother and just chatting.
Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson are the same age. I’d much rather trade Hanson than Jair. I’ve always thought Jair was a better overall pitcher.
That being said…Braves could just as easily dangle Tommy Hanson for a bat and I would be more in favor of that. But I don’t think the Braves should trade Tommy or Jair.
They’d be better of getting a decent return for Derek Lowe or a prospect or two.
“Phillies announcer just made the statement that the best thing about this game with Boston was the fans just got the chance to boo JD Drew. All class there, Phils.”
JD Drew deserved to be booed in Philly for what he did to them. The only regret I have about that situation is that Curt Schilling never did actually kick his ass like he pretty much said he wanted to do after he (and his agent….. some guy named Boras) ditched the Phillies after being drafted by them.
Philly might not have much class. But in that situation JD Drew was the one without any class.
In regards to N8’s posts, I think the Braves tend to let guys like Jurrjens go rather then pay them the money that they are worth in the open market. As soon as Jair comes up for the big contract I don’t know if the Braves are going to pay him. I would, but I don’t know if the Braves would.
If they don’t intend to keep him long term, you might deal him while you can get max value for him. I DO NOT THINK THEY SHOULD DEAL HIM. But if the Braves aren’t going to sign him long term or don’t think they can, then I get the logic of them dealing Jair.
JT Grace – Some great pitchers do get themselves into “jams.” Maddux did it all the time. Walked guy on purpose, let guys steal on purpose, gave up hits on purpose. Some guys are good enough to essential pitch around players, thus creating jams, knowing that they have the stuff to get the next guy out.
Giving up hits and walking guys isn’t the end of the world, as long as you can get 3-outs before the other team scores. That isn’t luck that’s just good pitching and great strategy. Not all guys can pitch like this, some can and make a career of it. Other guys just try to strike out the side. To each their own. But to say Jair is lucky when he has consistently gotten guys out is ridiculous.
The Braves dont like paying the big contract. Example the Texiera trade. We gave up the farm and then didnt want to pay him to keep him. He should have been the face of the franchise for years to come…
How much do you think Reyes will earn per season? Over 15 mil?
If not…they we could sign him…cause that’s what they are paying Lowe, so the Braves show that they are willing to throw money down the toilet. Even more so when you think of kawakami…
DAP, I was just responding to AGon being trading and why it’s not very likely. Just saw Murph’s post that mentioned AGon and him not counting on AGon being traded.
Jurrjens’s BABIP is likely to be lower than most pitchers’. It’s possible for it to remain in the .276 range but I think the high .280’s (which is his career norm) is more likely from here on out. And it’s not like he never strikes anyone out. He’s at 6.2 K/9 for his career, which isn’t awful. But I think he’s more like a number three guy, even in a very good rotation, which is still pretty darn good.
For those discounting Jurrjens getting lucky, look at the years when the batted balls are finding holes (the years when his BABIP’s are highest). Those are clearly his worst ERA seasons.
We gave up the farm and then didnt want to pay [Teixeira] to keep him.
As I recall, at least from the rumors, the team made him an offer in the $140MM range. I don’t think that quite meets the standard of “didn’t want to pay him”. But that’s just me.
N8 You did not mention that Brooks Jacoby was also part of that deal and went on to be an All-star for the Indians as well.
The problem most folks have is the expectations that every 21 year old ball player the Braves acquire be an instant super-star.
Most every trade is made based on a young player’s potential verses an established player’s cost.
Jurjjens is not going anywhere, the Braves just cannot get a replacement of equal value for the same or less money. Maybe when he is eligible to become a free agent but until then, the Braves will pay what is necessary to keep him.
The two guys who are more likely to be playing elsewhere next year are Hudson and Lowe. Just the way it works.
Jair had one bad ERA season and it just so happened to coincide with his injuries. Coincidence? I think not. Jair as a number 3 pitcher? Wow. He is an ace on this staff and an ace on every NL staff but the Phillies, and maybe the Giants.
2,335 comments Add your comment
Ease®
June 30th, 2011
2:40 pm
Looks like it hit him square on the heel of the hand…been there done that. Bet he misses his next start but that is all (speculation of course)
bravesgrl4life
June 30th, 2011
2:40 pm
I know the players need one every now and then, but off days stink. Big time.
richbrave
June 30th, 2011
2:42 pm
TennesseePaul
June 30th, 2011
2:27 pm
what’s UGGLA’s
Never a perennial OBP leader is what.
On that we’re agreed, and here’s hoping our financial gamble becomes a ‘CRIME DOG’ rather than a NATE McLOUTH. Nothing I would love to see more than a 30+ homer season from UGGLA even if the OBP is miniscule.
JT Grace
June 30th, 2011
2:44 pm
Jair Jurrjens is a good pitcher but many of you act like he is as good as Cole Hamels or Justin Verlander. He is not THAT good. His BABIP this year is .270. His FIP is 3.32 which indicates that he is due for a slight 2nd half regression. His GB% (ground ball percentage) has gone down as the season has gone along. With his meager K/9 of 5.17 that is another bad sign. If the Braves could get an equivalent top tier right-handed centerfielder they would be stupid not to trade him. However, I don’t think the front office would even remotely consider trading him until the offseason.
Ease®
June 30th, 2011
2:44 pm
Oh well, x-rays negative, day-to-day…so we’ll see.
Murph
June 30th, 2011
2:47 pm
DAP, AGon is a favorite of Fredi G. That makes me think he is less likely to be moved, plus his defense isn’t all that easy to replace.
Shaun
June 30th, 2011
2:48 pm
JT Grace, the problem is I think most front offices realize Jurrjens is probably pitching a bit over his head so far this season and they aren’t going to give up a centerfielder of equal value with a contract the Braves can deal with.
JT Grace
June 30th, 2011
2:49 pm
IMHO the Braves should pursue a right handed version of Jordan Schafer. Someone like Rajai Davis of the Jays. These two guys could platoon to make CF a position of strength for the Braves.
I don’t see a trade for Bourn because he is a lefty who gets killed by lefty pitching. He also would cost more prospects that what I would be willing to pay. Reed Johnson would make more sense if you want an every day player to totally replace McLouth/Schafer.
phil
June 30th, 2011
2:49 pm
X-rays on whom? I just arrived at the beach in florida for the races this weekend…not a Brave i hope?
Shaun perhaps? Reckinball? N8?
UNCBrave
June 30th, 2011
2:49 pm
I still can’t believe people are advocating trading JJ…He’s our best pitcher. Would the Phillies trade Halladay? We have JJ for 2 more ARB years…..If anything, we should re-sign JJ and Hanson in the off-season when Lowe and Chipper come off the books…
We have PLENTY of pitching PROSPECTS to trade and McOut…TRADE them
southern hope
June 30th, 2011
2:49 pm
Yay! the loathsome Phillies are being beat by Boston.
phil
June 30th, 2011
2:51 pm
Maddux pitched over his head from ‘92 through ‘95….the bum.
bravesgrl4life
June 30th, 2011
2:51 pm
Go Red Sox!!!!
JT Grace
June 30th, 2011
2:51 pm
Shaun, I agree. I don’t think any team gives up a player for JJ equivalent to what the Braves feel he is worth. My point is that they should do it if given the opportunity.
MFin04
June 30th, 2011
2:51 pm
Jurrjens is a top 5 pitcher in the Majors and will be for the rest of his career as long as he stays healthy. When he has be healthy he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. I’m not sure he’d pitching over his head. He really is this good. The only time he’s really struggled has been because of injuries.
That being said, no way the Braves would trade him. He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball and will continue to be so.
Changing subject, where would this team be if they had a decent offense this year? Best record in baseball? Best team in baseball? What do you think?
Whoop
June 30th, 2011
2:51 pm
“IMHO the Braves should pursue a right handed version of Jordan Schafer. ”
Why would the Braves want someone else who can’t hit or get on base?
phil
June 30th, 2011
2:52 pm
Score?
Ease®
June 30th, 2011
2:52 pm
phil, saying that you just arrived at the beach is not a healthy way to enter a conservation with those of us who are most likely at work
Hamels was hit on his non-pitching hand by a line drive and had to leave the game.
since57
June 30th, 2011
2:53 pm
I had the good fortune of being at all 3 games vs. the Mariners. Gotta love that sweep. I was two rows behind the Braves dugout, so it was in interesting perspective. The thing that jumped off the page was that not once in 3 games did Larry Parrish say a single word to a player. He was standing alone (except for a couple of times when he was with Jeff Porter). Am I wrong to think that at least once over 3 games there would have been some comment from him to a player? I know Fredi has said it isn’t a coaching problem, but it sure doesn’t seem that Parrish has established any kind of a relationship with any of the players. What’s your thought DOB?
wreckmaniac
June 30th, 2011
2:53 pm
Wow , over 1400 comments in a Braves article. Looks like Football U(GA) is losing it !
phil
June 30th, 2011
2:53 pm
With solid hitting, we’d be 30 games over .500 right now or close to it…easily.
TennesseePaul
June 30th, 2011
2:54 pm
Nothing I would love to see more than a 30+ homer season from UGGLA even if the OBP is miniscule
I don’t know about the ‘plus’, but 25-30 this year would be great. He’s starting to hit them a little more regular like and could very well end up with 30 this year. We’ll see. His second half can’t be as bad as his first half. I don’t think that is possible.
Shaun
June 30th, 2011
2:54 pm
DAP and Murph, the problem with AGon is that he’s an older player under contract through this season. So the only teams that would want him are contenders that are desperate for a shortstop or would like to upgrade defensively. But those teams would want AGon because they don’t have a shortstop, so the Braves probably wouldn’t get a decent shortstop in return. They would be forced to go with Diory Hernandez or Brandon Hicks or someone like that who is not going to provide any more value than AGon; probably less value.
JT Grace
June 30th, 2011
2:54 pm
Phil, Jurrjens is not remotely comparable to Greg Maddux. Greg’s FIP was almost always extremely comparable to his ERA, indicating luck played no factor in his success. He also had an outstanding GB%.
TennesseePaul
June 30th, 2011
2:55 pm
With solid hitting, we’d be 30 games over .500 right now or close to it
Please. With the solid hitting we all thought they’d have the team would be 82 games over .500
phil
June 30th, 2011
2:55 pm
Ease®
June 30th, 2011
2:52 pm
phil, saying that you just arrived at the beach is not a healthy way to enter a conservation with those of us who are most likely at work.
It’s raining….how’s that? Lol
timthebrave
June 30th, 2011
2:56 pm
ERA which determines how many runs a guy gives up
Verlander 3.65
Hamels 3.74
JJ 3.30
WHIP which is how many hits and walks they let up per 9
JJ 1.28
Verlander 1.21
Hamels 1.15
Your right JJ doesn’t compare. He lets up less runs than either of those 2 guys
phil
June 30th, 2011
2:56 pm
JT Grace – no kidding. Just poking fun at Shaun.
raleighbravefan
June 30th, 2011
2:57 pm
I know I am a dreamer, or at least, an optimist…but I would love a rotation of JJ, Hanson, Tehran, and 2 best of Beachy, Minor, Medlen, Delgato, Vizcaino, etc. I realize $$$ will be an issue, with or without Scott Boras, but if the Braves will spend anywhere, it will be pitching.
RC
June 30th, 2011
2:57 pm
ESPN reporting that Hamels will make his next start. Not that I’d ever root for an injury, but it would have been nice to have the Phillies slowed down just a little bit.
MikeinLA
June 30th, 2011
2:57 pm
Funny how people are saying that Jurrjens is pitching over his head and that he’s going to come back to earth. Didn’t they say that the first two years of his career? Why can’t people accept the fact that he knows how to pitch and has gotten better each healthy season (excluding last year’s injury plagued season). Yeah, he doesn’t throw 98 or strike out a lot of guys like most aces but who cares. Getting outs and preventing runs from scoring is what’s most important. And he’s pretty much done that better than anyone this year. UNCBrave- Chipper and Lowe are still under contract next year. Chipper might retire and Lowe may get traded but two big “ifs”.
wreckmaniac
June 30th, 2011
2:57 pm
This team will be better in the second half but be certain that the Phils will go on a 40 win-10 loss run.
Prado, Uggla, and Heyward will contribute more in the second half just by showing up. Chip will miss one out of every 4 games. The centerfield delimma needs to be resolved.
MFin04
June 30th, 2011
2:58 pm
I’ve never understood why the word luck and Jurrjens seem to always be synonymous.
The guy isn’t lucky, he’s just clutch as heck. He is cool under pressure with runners on base, he doesn’t get rattled and he gets guys to put the ball in play and make outs.
You don’t have to strike everyone out to be a great pitcher. Just get them to weakly hit balls where you want them to. Jair has consistently done that over a long period of time.
MikeInFl
June 30th, 2011
2:58 pm
Wow , over 1400 comments in a Braves article. Looks like Football U(GA) is losing it !
Yeah, but it’s only by 21 people. Four, if you count all the Vales personalities as one.
RC
June 30th, 2011
2:58 pm
Before I start, I know there is no way this trade would ever happen, from either team. That being said….
If the offer was on the table and you were the Braves GM, would you trade Teheran for Mike Trout?
I’m about 90% sure I would, but it’s certainly an interesting question.
Ease®
June 30th, 2011
2:59 pm
phil, I just laid new sod and I need the rain too!
DAP
June 30th, 2011
3:00 pm
shaun the problem with AGon is that he’s an older player under contract through this season. So the only teams that would want him are contenders that are desperate for a shortstop or would like to upgrade defensively. But those teams would want AGon because they don’t have a shortstop, so the Braves probably wouldn’t get a decent shortstop in return.
i dont see this as a problem. the braves wouldnt need to trade gonzo for a SS. it has already been discussed that their trading chip is pitching.
ncscoots
June 30th, 2011
3:00 pm
He is not THAT good.
Sometimes, we forget that peripherals are just that: peripherals. A guy has one year in which he outpitches his peripherals, that’s a fluke. He does it two years, it’s maybe coincidence. He does it with regularity, then he’s just pure-dee good.
Glavine, just for example has a career BABIP of about .280, and his FIP regularly hovered around 3.50 or below, in his prime. Plus a K rate regularly below six and a half. He worked out OK.
Trading Jurrjens before the team finds out if his two excellent years are coincidence or pure-dee good probably wouldn’t be the brightest move.
N8
June 30th, 2011
3:01 pm
“I do not think for one minute that his agent is going to be a hindrance to his future with this team. If Jurrjens keeps this up until he hits free agency, he’ll draw a lot of attention and big contracts offers, even if he had your run of the mill assclown working for him.” T-Paul
Haven’t paid much attention to how the Braves operate or how Boras operates, have you?
The Braves like to lock up their young players BEFORE free agency and even are willing to “buy out” their arbitration years. As maid evident by Mac’s contract and the similar offer to Francoeur (think he wishes he accepted that deal now?).
Boras despises giving up the arbitration years for his clients. So JJJ’s arbitration years and an extension being done in the near future is unlikely.
You are correct. Any assclown could get JJ big money when free agency hits if he keeps this up. JJJ could do it without an agent save the commission check.
But only an agent with the balls of Boras plays hardball from the get go of arbitration and fights hard for his players to ride out their “rookie” contracts until free agency, promising bigger dollars at the other end of the rainbow, and most of the time he’s dead on.
If you think these facts don’t hinder Wren’s ability to easily lock up JJJ longterm, you’re crazy. No offense.
Then when you add in the factor that our offense is putrid and we have pitchng galore coming up from the minors and back from injury, JJJ makes perfect off-season trade bait.
Doesn’t mean he WILL for sure be traded, or that he WON’T be extended (or simply kept around and be allowed to go through the arbitration process).
But common sense, paying attention to past similar scenarios and assessing the Braves needs and surplus tells anybody that is paying attention that Jurrjens is more likely to be traded in between now and the 2013 season, and possibly before the 2012 season with a VERY slim chance of it maybe happening (for the right deal) in the next month.
timthebrave
June 30th, 2011
3:01 pm
That’s right JJ has just been lucky in consistently getting MAJOR LEAGUE hitters out for 4 years…He needs to play the lottery with that kind of “luck”
RC
June 30th, 2011
3:01 pm
You don’t have to strike everyone out to be a great pitcher. Just get them to weakly hit balls where you want them to. Jair has consistently done that over a long period of time.
The reason people doubt Jair is because they don’t believe the pitcher has control over where the batter hits the ball. It’s also worth noting that his ERA is 2.57 points LESS than it was last year, in a year that he made 20 starts despite the injuries. While I think he’s a very good pitcher, I do think there is a decent amount of luck involved for him to post a 2.07 ERA at this point in the season.
Fish Bisch
June 30th, 2011
3:02 pm
disregarding Babip and Fip; To my eyes (the Human Element) Jurrgens is our best pitcher. Bar none.
RC
June 30th, 2011
3:02 pm
That’s right JJ has just been lucky in consistently getting MAJOR LEAGUE hitters out for 4 years…He needs to play the lottery with that kind of “luck”
He had a 4.64 ERA last year in over 100 innings! He hasn’t been lucky for 4 years…
DAP
June 30th, 2011
3:03 pm
shaun, i cant help but think i must have missed your point. it doesnt make sense that you would think we need to find a team that will want half a year of gonzalez for a better SS.
wreckmaniac
June 30th, 2011
3:03 pm
Trading Jurrgens for any centerfielder would equal the Barker for Butler trade ( the most infamous trade in the history of major league baseball). I will rather see me play center field for the Braves than give up Jurrgens. Now if you want to talk sense, could we discuss trading Jurrgens for Cliff Lee ? That’s an equal deal.
Shaun
June 30th, 2011
3:04 pm
MFin04, I love Jurrjens and I’m glad he’s done what he’s done, but I can’t see him being a top 5 pitcher in the majors for the rest of the season.
Changing subject, where would this team be if they had a decent offense this year? Best record in baseball? Best team in baseball? What do you think?
If they had been a league-average offense, I think they would be right with the Phillies or maybe a game or a few back from the Phillies. If the Phillies offense has been any better than the Braves, it’s not been by very much at all. And while the Braves’ pitching has been awesome, the Phillies’ has been better. So I don’t think it’s clear that the Braves would necessarily be ahead of the Phillies but they would be right there, at least a lot closer than they are now.
RC
June 30th, 2011
3:04 pm
The frustrating thing about Jurrjens for me is that everyone acts like 2010 didn’t happen. Now, I don’t think he’s nearly as bad as his 2010 numbers indicate, and I think he’s probably pretty close to his 2009 numbers. But NOBODY is as good as his 2011 numbers have been so far this year. Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Bob Gibson….nobody.
N8
June 30th, 2011
3:05 pm
Good post at 3:00 scoots.
You can count me in the boat that would accept Wren trading JJJ for an “equal” bat (that is under our control for a few years).
But that has way more to do with me thinking we need another bat and have a surplus of pitching (and he’s the “chip” that would bring the biggest return).
Rather than me saying trade him because he really isn’t very good and has only been lucky. That’s just silly.
Lucky or good, if Wren decided to put him on the market, teams would line up for him and Wren could pick between the offers. If none of them were good enough to move him, there could be MUCH worse options than being forced to keep him until he hits free agency. LOL
phil
June 30th, 2011
3:06 pm
N8 makes sense to me on JJ…right on the mark.
MikeinLA
June 30th, 2011
3:06 pm
scoots and mfin04 nice to see some coherent people on the blog
RC
June 30th, 2011
3:06 pm
Trading Jurrgens for any centerfielder would equal the Barker for Butler trade ( the most infamous trade in the history of major league baseball).
Considering I’ve never heard of it, I find it hard to believe it’s the most imfamous ever.
Pretty sure some guy named Ruth being traded to the Yankees still owns that crown.
Patrick
June 30th, 2011
3:06 pm
I’ll say this about Jose Reyes. He is oft too injured to give him a huge contact $100+mil for probably 6+years. But he’s going to get it anyway….
He’d be the perfect fit for the Braves. He’s exactly what they are lacking. It’s too bad the team doesn’t spend like it should to win a world series. Only so often are there players that can make a championship-type difference to a team and I believe Reyes is that for the Braves. The sad thing is, the Braves probably know it and see it but they still won’t spend the money.
RC
June 30th, 2011
3:07 pm
N8,
Excellent post at 3:05. Agree completely.
timthebrave
June 30th, 2011
3:07 pm
RC, no I wouldn’t trade Teheran for Trout. Trout has speed and hits for average but he is only in AA. A lot more what ifs for Trout in my opinion
Whoop
June 30th, 2011
3:08 pm
Then when you add in the factor that our offense is putrid and we have pitchng galore coming up from the minors and back from injury
And there’s no guarantee that the Braves “pitching galore” coming up will all end up being stars or even decent.
David O'Brien
June 30th, 2011
3:08 pm
Just to bring a little sanity/reality to this discussion, I’d like to quote verbatim what Buster wrote, the item in his blog that set off this whole Jurrjens trade discussion:
Some rival executives have wondered if that pitching depth would allow Atlanta to consider a very bold move with a pitcher whose stock has reached its zenith — Jair Jurrjens, who is 10-3 with a 2.07 ERA and a midseason candidate for the Cy Young Award. If the Braves actually dangled Jurrjens in the market, they could put themselves in position to get an impact offensive position player in return.
Just to reiterate: All the discussion among rival evaluators about Jurrjens is pure speculation.
Please read the first five words and the last sentence again. Again, people read something and interpret it as they see fit — twist it, exaggerate it, strengthen it, then work off that new baseline as if that’s what was actually written.
MFin04
June 30th, 2011
3:08 pm
People that point to Jair and luck obviously don’t watch him pitch. He consistently gets out of jams. And the times he has had low ERAs he has been healthy, and the times his ERA has been high has been when he was plagued with injuries.
This year he finally is healthy, and look at that, he leads the league in Wins and ERA. Its really not surprising. The guy has been consistently good for the Braves when healthy. The years he has been healthy he has had ERAs of 3.68, 2.60, and this year 2.07. He seems to actually be getting better every year and if he can stay healthy, I believe he will only get better in time.
RC
June 30th, 2011
3:09 pm
He’d be the perfect fit for the Braves. He’s exactly what they are lacking. It’s too bad the team doesn’t spend like it should to win a world series. Only so often are there players that can make a championship-type difference to a team and I believe Reyes is that for the Braves. The sad thing is, the Braves probably know it and see it but they still won’t spend the money.
There are two types of currency in baseball: dollars and players. While the Braves won’t spend the dollars to sign Reyes long term (nor should they), they could very easily spend the players to acquire him for this year, if they choose to.
N8
June 30th, 2011
3:09 pm
“Trading Jurrgens for any centerfielder would equal the Barker for Butler trade ( the most infamous trade in the history of major league baseball).” wreckmaniac
I bet there are some Jeff Bagwell fans in Boston that would argue that comment. And even though Doyle Alexander got the Tigers to the ALCS and had a fine season the next year for them, I’d bet plenty of their fans would have “sacrificed” 1987 & 1988 for almost 20 years of John Smoltz.
Bret Butler was a fine player and we definitely missed him (along with Barker being a huge bust). But come on dude. Keep it real.
ncscoots
June 30th, 2011
3:09 pm
scoots and mfin04 nice to see some coherent people on the blog
Oh geez, bro, I spend seven-eight years building cred here, and you just nuked it all with a twelve-word post, LOL.
timthebrave
June 30th, 2011
3:09 pm
I don’t think we can expect him to have a 2.00 ERA for his career but I wouldn’t be surprised if he is 2.5-3.5 ERA for the next 5 years
Whoop
June 30th, 2011
3:10 pm
It’s also worth noting that his ERA is 2.57 points LESS than it was last year, in a year that he made 20 starts despite the injuries.
It’s clear as day that JJ wasn’t right in 2010. He wasn’t ever at 100%
T for Texas
June 30th, 2011
3:11 pm
Phillies announcer just made the statement that the best thing about this game with Boston was the fans just got the chance to boo JD Drew. All class there, Phils.
RC
June 30th, 2011
3:12 pm
It’s clear as day that JJ wasn’t right in 2010. He wasn’t ever at 100%
And there is no guarantee that he will be in the future. I’m just saying that an ERA of barely 2.00 is not sustainable long term. Doesn’t mean that he can’t keep and ERA of 3.00 or 2.50, either of which would be among the best in the game.
Whoop
June 30th, 2011
3:12 pm
The only fluke was JJ’s 2010 year.
Ease®
June 30th, 2011
3:13 pm
Just to bring a little sanity/reality to this discussion
This has Laugh Out Loud written all over it…Well done DOB!
RC
June 30th, 2011
3:13 pm
I don’t think we can expect him to have a 2.00 ERA for his career but I wouldn’t be surprised if he is 2.5-3.5 ERA for the next 5 years
Didn’t see this point before my last one, but I agree with it completely.
N8
June 30th, 2011
3:13 pm
“Just to bring a little sanity/reality to this discussion…” DOB
First of all, this blog would be boring as hell if it was filled with sanity and reality. Don’t bogart are wave DOB.
Secondly, I didn’t need that mis-interpreted quote from Olney to spark this conversation. Been having it (in a reasonably and civil manner) since last winter. Just thought I’d jump in again.
As I stated earlier. The topic of trades, possible free agent targets and what not is SO much more fun to have when we are already a good team and online to make the playoffs as the WC.
Maybe I missed some posts. But I don’t think anybody has gotten really snarky over the discussion. It’s actually been one of the better “arguments” on here in days. Everybody being pretty nice to eachother and just chatting.
Thanks once again for the forum for us to do so.
MFin04
June 30th, 2011
3:14 pm
Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson are the same age. I’d much rather trade Hanson than Jair. I’ve always thought Jair was a better overall pitcher.
That being said…Braves could just as easily dangle Tommy Hanson for a bat and I would be more in favor of that. But I don’t think the Braves should trade Tommy or Jair.
They’d be better of getting a decent return for Derek Lowe or a prospect or two.
ncscoots
June 30th, 2011
3:15 pm
Everybody being pretty nice to eachother and just chatting.
Well, bleep that. Guess I’ll have to go rogue and liven this sucker up some.
phil
June 30th, 2011
3:16 pm
According to DOB, a JJ trade looks to be a certainty…
N8
June 30th, 2011
3:17 pm
“Phillies announcer just made the statement that the best thing about this game with Boston was the fans just got the chance to boo JD Drew. All class there, Phils.”
JD Drew deserved to be booed in Philly for what he did to them. The only regret I have about that situation is that Curt Schilling never did actually kick his ass like he pretty much said he wanted to do after he (and his agent….. some guy named Boras) ditched the Phillies after being drafted by them.
Philly might not have much class. But in that situation JD Drew was the one without any class.
phil
June 30th, 2011
3:17 pm
Ncscoots is a hater…
JT Grace
June 30th, 2011
3:17 pm
People that point to Jair and luck obviously don’t watch him pitch. He consistently gets out of jams. — MFin04
LOL. That is the definition of LUCK!! Great pitchers don’t get themselves into jams in the first place.
Ease®
June 30th, 2011
3:18 pm
FIRE FREDI!
timthebrave
June 30th, 2011
3:18 pm
David O’Brien “Just to bring a little sanity/reality to this discussion”
ha ha ha ha
Reality??? Sanity??? On a DOB blog…
yeah right
Like I was saying once we get Cliff Lee for Kawakami and Hunter Pence for Nate…….
MFin04
June 30th, 2011
3:18 pm
In regards to N8’s posts, I think the Braves tend to let guys like Jurrjens go rather then pay them the money that they are worth in the open market. As soon as Jair comes up for the big contract I don’t know if the Braves are going to pay him. I would, but I don’t know if the Braves would.
If they don’t intend to keep him long term, you might deal him while you can get max value for him. I DO NOT THINK THEY SHOULD DEAL HIM. But if the Braves aren’t going to sign him long term or don’t think they can, then I get the logic of them dealing Jair.
phil
June 30th, 2011
3:18 pm
Fire the 755 Club wait staff…
N8
June 30th, 2011
3:18 pm
Well stated JT Grace. That Maddux guy never had runners on base.
ncscoots
June 30th, 2011
3:19 pm
phil, maybe I’ll try that one day, just for chuckles. I have plenty of role models here, if I do, right?
MikeInFl
June 30th, 2011
3:20 pm
In 2008, at 22 years old, Jurrjens had the 14th best starter’s ERA in the NL.
In 2009, at 23, the 3rd best ERA in the NL in 215 IP.
2010 was lost to injuries, 116 mediocre innings wrapped around 2 DL trips.
And in 2011, at 25, he’s got the best ERA in the NL through the midway point.
Pretty hefty lucky streak he’s got going there.
phil
June 30th, 2011
3:20 pm
Right, JT Grace….no great pitcher ever gave up more than a run or so in any given game….
Huh?
Whoop
June 30th, 2011
3:20 pm
“LOL. That is the definition of LUCK!! Great pitchers don’t get themselves into jams in the first place.”
Yeah, the “great pitchers” only throw no hitters.
Murph
June 30th, 2011
3:21 pm
Well, bleep that. Guess I’ll have to go rogue and liven this sucker up some.
Doodie head!
daniel buck
June 30th, 2011
3:21 pm
DOB…. Have you heard of any trade rumors that are a little bit more sane then this JJ for Kemp stuff??
MFin04
June 30th, 2011
3:22 pm
JT Grace – Some great pitchers do get themselves into “jams.” Maddux did it all the time. Walked guy on purpose, let guys steal on purpose, gave up hits on purpose. Some guys are good enough to essential pitch around players, thus creating jams, knowing that they have the stuff to get the next guy out.
Giving up hits and walking guys isn’t the end of the world, as long as you can get 3-outs before the other team scores. That isn’t luck that’s just good pitching and great strategy. Not all guys can pitch like this, some can and make a career of it. Other guys just try to strike out the side. To each their own. But to say Jair is lucky when he has consistently gotten guys out is ridiculous.
Afan
June 30th, 2011
3:22 pm
The Braves dont like paying the big contract. Example the Texiera trade. We gave up the farm and then didnt want to pay him to keep him. He should have been the face of the franchise for years to come…
Afan
June 30th, 2011
3:23 pm
how about a buster olney report??
ncscoots
June 30th, 2011
3:24 pm
Thank you, Murph. A little name-calling to inspire me; now I can get just right off the launchpad and go total whackjob.
Get Shaun in here. I’m ready to shred flesh.
phil
June 30th, 2011
3:24 pm
Tex couldn’t hit a grapefruit lobbed at him when we had him….good riddance.
Patrick
June 30th, 2011
3:25 pm
How much do you think Reyes will earn per season? Over 15 mil?
If not…they we could sign him…cause that’s what they are paying Lowe, so the Braves show that they are willing to throw money down the toilet. Even more so when you think of kawakami…
Shaun
June 30th, 2011
3:25 pm
DAP, I was just responding to AGon being trading and why it’s not very likely. Just saw Murph’s post that mentioned AGon and him not counting on AGon being traded.
Jurrjens’s BABIP is likely to be lower than most pitchers’. It’s possible for it to remain in the .276 range but I think the high .280’s (which is his career norm) is more likely from here on out. And it’s not like he never strikes anyone out. He’s at 6.2 K/9 for his career, which isn’t awful. But I think he’s more like a number three guy, even in a very good rotation, which is still pretty darn good.
For those discounting Jurrjens getting lucky, look at the years when the batted balls are finding holes (the years when his BABIP’s are highest). Those are clearly his worst ERA seasons.
phil
June 30th, 2011
3:26 pm
Shaun…one intense guy. Like reasoning with a chalk line.
ncscoots
June 30th, 2011
3:26 pm
We gave up the farm and then didnt want to pay [Teixeira] to keep him.
As I recall, at least from the rumors, the team made him an offer in the $140MM range. I don’t think that quite meets the standard of “didn’t want to pay him”. But that’s just me.
Gil In Mechanicsville
June 30th, 2011
3:27 pm
N8 You did not mention that Brooks Jacoby was also part of that deal and went on to be an All-star for the Indians as well.
The problem most folks have is the expectations that every 21 year old ball player the Braves acquire be an instant super-star.
Most every trade is made based on a young player’s potential verses an established player’s cost.
Jurjjens is not going anywhere, the Braves just cannot get a replacement of equal value for the same or less money. Maybe when he is eligible to become a free agent but until then, the Braves will pay what is necessary to keep him.
The two guys who are more likely to be playing elsewhere next year are Hudson and Lowe. Just the way it works.
phil
June 30th, 2011
3:28 pm
What player doesn’t get lucky sometimes? Moronic….
daniel buck
June 30th, 2011
3:28 pm
I wish we could hit the blockbuster trade that nobody sees coming
MFin04
June 30th, 2011
3:28 pm
Jair had one bad ERA season and it just so happened to coincide with his injuries. Coincidence? I think not. Jair as a number 3 pitcher? Wow. He is an ace on this staff and an ace on every NL staff but the Phillies, and maybe the Giants.
T for Texas
June 30th, 2011
3:28 pm
N-8,
Agreed on JD Drew’s douchieness. I just thought it was funny that the Phillie anouncers took so much joy in hating on a player.
Fish Bisch
June 30th, 2011
3:29 pm
Trade JJ for Lincecum.