5:45 pm June 24, 2011, by David O'Brien
June 24th, 20117:47 pm
Hanson’s going to throw side session in the ‘pen shortly. But he feels fine, no problems day after his flat-ground session. Barring anything unexpected, he starts Tuesday.
June 24th, 20117:48 pm
Mixxo, you’re not allowed to like the Braves and hate the South. Sorry, just the way it is.
Then again, you said you hate the south. We live in the South.
June 24th, 20117:49 pm
Time for Big Boy dollardogs! Brb
June 24th, 20117:50 pm
TexasBrave, Tim Dix, others: Glad you liked that song. First time I heard it years ago, I thought, how can this song not be famous? All the documentaries they’ve made about the Yankees and Mantle, all the HBO specials about baseball, etc., and I’ve never heard it used on any of them. Love that song.
June 24th, 20117:53 pm
“I. Hate. Heat. And I hate mugginess, which abounds…”
Unless I’m at Lake Lanier or at a pool party, I hate it when it when it’s hot as balls outside especially at night! It messes with my sleep patterns, and that is like playing with my emotions!
And there is nothing worse than when it is humid at night like this and going to a club and getting your swerve on but yet sweating ur rear off…
Bring on Fall and SEC Football 10 more weeks!
June 24th, 20117:55 pm
OK, that was funny, that ridiculous photo I posted by mistake. Have no idea what it was or how I grabbed it from Twitter feed.
Anyway, here’s the one I meant to post: http://twitpic.com/5gbk8p
June 24th, 20117:56 pm
I hate it when it when it’s hot as balls outside especially at night! …And there is nothing worse than when it is humid at night like this and going to a club and getting your swerve on but yet sweating ur rear off…
Yeah, that’s what McFann meant.
McFann ;Ô; ;Ô;
June 24th, 20117:58 pm
DOB you’re not allowed to like the Braves and hate the South. Sorry, just the way it is.
Well, at least it wasn’t obscene.
I liked the Batman pic better. It was more open to interpretation to what your day in San Diego was like.
June 24th, 20118:00 pm
I have a idea. I know cab loves Braves west coast trips, but the late starts are not good for us east coast Braves fans. I would like to see complete realinement. No more AL and NL,have a eastern conference and a western conference like the NBA, east and west never play each other till the WS Then all our games will start at a desent time of day.
ONLY KIDDING CAB, I WOULD NOT DO THAT TO YOU
June 24th, 20118:01 pm
Time to eat seriously…
And its time to Bump my old West Coast Gangsta Rap Playlist! I have been on an 80’s rock/pop Binge for about 6 weeks now…Time to switch it up…
June 24th, 20118:02 pm
Good to know There is only so much room in the doghouse, even after noleee remolded it. And between him, Stanleee, you, and Murph (with the occasional visit from Tom O’Hawke) it would have been awfully crowded…
June 24th, 20118:03 pm
Anyway…I freaking love that ballpark.
June 24th, 20118:04 pm
Nolee filled the doghouse with mold…?
I don’t really “hate” it. It’s just the heat man.
Check out this nice tune?
June 24th, 20118:05 pm
meant “remodeled” obviously
June 24th, 20118:06 pm
I’m amazed at how many people don’t know what the phrase “Hot as Balls” means? I picked up that Phrase when I lived in S. Florida for a year, Its rare to hear anyone say that up here…?
Don’t be too sure…
June 24th, 20118:07 pm
When did I say I didn’t know what that meant, Tomahawkin? I was just joking that you took a McFann comment about hating the heat and added “balls” and the club to it.
June 24th, 20118:09 pm
DOWN ON THE FARM
G-Men and TODD REDMOND getting waxed tonight, 8-0 COLUMBUS after three. Ouch! ‘45′ has the only BRAVES hit through 3+
June 24th, 20118:11 pm
DOB: Agree with you on Mixxo. Thanks for the reports from the field when we can’t see what is going on. I like those.
RANDALL DELGADO getting the start tonight. Game just underway, top of the first.
T for Texas
June 24th, 20118:15 pm
Tonights Braves v Padres game is the freebie on MLB.TV.
June 24th, 20118:17 pm
Outta here, there is a good collage WS game on BSPN. Have a good one or to y’ll. LETS WIN ONE TONIGHT BRAVES.
June 24th, 20118:18 pm
HILLCATS locked up in a 0-0 duel of opposing pitchers tonight.
BLAINE SIMS on the hill for the BRAVES
1b JOE TERDOSLAVICH has the only two ‘CATS hits to this point.
C CHRISTIAN BETHANCOURT 0-2.
Bob the Blogger
Getting back to the subject of the blog, I’m concerned about Kembrel and Venters being worked like rented mules. These guys haven’t been tested long enough to establish that they can carry this kind of workload. I won’t be a surprise if one of them blows a gasket.
June 24th, 20118:22 pm
‘LOS PEREZ and the R=BRAVES rolling through three 6-0.
ROB HEFFLINGER 1-2 tonight.
Thanks for the heads up, T.
June 24th, 20118:25 pm
These guys haven’t been tested long enough to establish that they can carry this kind of workload
Bob – Venters pitched 83 innings last year and 156 in 2010
“Kembrel” piched 76 innings last year plus the playoffs and then 60 in 2010. Granted he’s on pace to go more, but at least we’ve seen he’s pitched a good number of innings before.
June 24th, 20118:26 pm
See ya LTBF
June 24th, 20118:28 pm
Enter your comments here
2009 DSL grad WILLIE PEREZ getting all the run support tonight through three, 8-0.
Great blog as always DOB
June 24th, 20118:34 pm
The Phillies may be on the verge of losing Roy Oswalt, but their other three aces are heading for historic territory. They have one starter (Cliff Lee) leading the league in shutouts, another (Cole Hamels) leading the league in WHIP and a third (Roy Halladay) leading the league in Wins Above Replacement. If we use baseball-reference.com’s calculations of WAR leaders through the years, there hasn’t been any other team in the live-ball era that had three starters lead the league in those three categories
The A Bomb
June 24th, 20118:37 pm
Good to see Joe West, Angel Hernandez and the rest of the UMPS FROM HELL are tormenting the Phillies this weekend….
OAKLAND 0 0 0
PHILADELPHIA 0 0 0 TOP 6
jungleland sax solo
June 24th, 20118:38 pm
So I was drinkin bourbon &playin w/ my computer and my pistols one day in my home-Loganville Ga…noted the Braves announcers kept babbling about what a great town San Diego is. So I booked a trip to Mission Beach. Now I am hooked.
Anyone looking for a great vacation…ya gotta go. Just dont waste your time ordering sweet tea.
June 24th, 20118:39 pm
“Kembrel” piched 76 innings last year plus the playoffs and then 60 in 2010. (jeffrey d)
How long have I been gone?
(Hi, LA Woman)
June 24th, 20118:40 pm
Both teams have no-no in 6….
June 24th, 20118:42 pm
Sorry, those 2010’s should be 2009’s
You know what I meant
June 24th, 20118:43 pm
No more !!
gonna be an exciting night on the blog tonight?
Matsui breaks up Worley’s no-hitter with a 6th-inning double…
June 24th, 20118:44 pm
Phils and A’s both taking no hitter to middle of 6th.
You bet, Bat. I was hoping you’d see that.
June 24th, 20118:45 pm
Of course I did, jeff, but where’s the fun in that?
Scratch that, A’s have one hit. Phils have been blanked.
Great song, DOB. Thanks for sharing.
Mixxo. I hated living in the South when I was younger, thought I was too good for it, too smart to live amongst the backwoods folk. Took me along time to love and appreciate it like I do now.
June 24th, 20118:47 pm
I’ve lived in the south my whole life (save one year) and I’ve never thought of it as backwoodsy.
June 24th, 20118:48 pm
Bumpin that and old Puff Daddy’s/Mase’s cover of that song “Bad Boy”! That junk Bumpin!
June 24th, 20118:49 pm
And Polanco breaks up Mosoco’s no-hitter with a 6th-inning single.
Is Up in Here!
Whats Up Part-Nah!
June 24th, 20118:50 pm
the other 1/2 watched sweet home alabama last night and while I don’t care for alabama it did bring back memories of the years I lived in rural Louisiana.
June 24th, 20118:53 pm
A Graphical Look at the Braves’ Pitching Staff
by Jacob Peterson on Jun 24, 2011 3:26 PM EDT
45 comments Email Print.It’s pretty obvious that the Braves’ pitching staff has been good this year. But just how do they stack up to the rest of the league? The following graphic uses Runs Above Replacement (RAR; this is the Baseball-Reference version) to compare the Braves pitchers to the league as a whole.
I’ve graphed each Braves pitcher in descending order of RAR, split up by Starters and Relievers. Behind these graphs, there is another set of graphs representing all MLB pitchers (the dark shaded regions). By comparing the Braves’ bars to the shaded area, you can see how each Braves starter/reliever compares to the average MLB pitchers for that slot. Where the Braves’ bars stick up above the dark area, they have been above average.
Overall, the Braves have earned 128 RAR (76 from starters and 52 from relievers). The MLB average is 81 RAR (56 from starters, 25 from relievers). That puts the Braves about 45 runs above average overall. Their starters have been 20 runs better than average (36%) while their relievers have been a whopping 27 runs above average (more than double the average team!).
Jair Jurrjens (28 RAR) compares fairly well with other teams’ aces. Tommy Hanson (20 RAR) is better than most teams’ 2nd-best starters. Most teams would love to have a top 2 as good as JJ and Hanson.
Brandon Beachy (11) has been a bit less valuable than most 3rd-best starters, but Derek Lowe (9) and Tim Hudson (8) are excellent when compared to most 4th- and 5th-best pitchers. This depth of quality pitching really pays off over a long season, though it’s not as helpful in the playoffs.
The Braves’ fill-in starters (Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, and Randall Delgado) haven’t been too impressive, but they have still been better than most backup starters.
The Braves’ bullpen is even more impressive. They rate as well above-average at every single bullpen slot. Jonny Venters (20 RAR) has been the top reliever in baseball by far, and Eric O’Flaherty (12 RAR) is tied for 5th-best. Craig Kimbrel and George Sherrill have also been good, earning 6 and 5 RAR, respectively.
Every other pitcher in the Braves’ bullpen has been right at or a bit above replacement level. That might not sound great, but it is actually a huge asset, as I discuss below.
What Is Runs Above Replacement?
RAR is fairly simple; it starts the number of runs a pitcher has given up. These are actual runs, including unearned runs. This number is then compared to the number of runs that a “replacement level” pitcher would have given up in the same number of innings, adjusted for the ballpark, opponents, and defense. A replacement-level pitcher is, roughly speaking, a pretty good AAA pitcher.
The Value of Replacement-Level Pitching
Despite that definition, there are always many major-league pitchers who perform below replacement-level. This year, around 30% of relievers and 18% of starters have been below replacement-level. So a team like the Braves that has used 8 starters and 10 relievers would typically have 1 or 2 starters and 3 relievers below replacement. Instead, the Braves have had just one pitcher–Randall Delgado–perform below replacement, and he has only pitched in one game!
The Braves’ get a big advantage from this depth, compared to other teams. The average team has lost 19 runs to below-replacement pitching (12 from relievers, 7 from starters). The Braves have lost only 2 runs. That’s a difference of 17 runs, or nearly 2 wins! The lesson is that there is value in having a bunch of mediocre pitchers, since that allows a team to avoid using terrible ones.
Baseball-Reference RAR vs. FanGraphs RAR
I should note that, because Baseball Reference uses actual run totals to measure a pitcher’s performance, it gets quite different results than FanGraphs does. FanGraphs uses FIP (strikeouts, walks, homers, and innings pitched) to infer how many runs a pitcher “should” have given up based on those peripherals. This means that FG rates certain Braves pitchers much higher and others much lower. FG also uses different calculations for “replacement level.”
Here are the biggest discrepancies (bRAR is the Baseball-Reference version; fRAR is the FanGraphs version):
•Jurrjens: 28 bRAR, 17 fRAR (+11)
•Hudson: 8 bRAR, 15 fRAR (-7)
•Kimbrel: 6 bRAR, 13 fRAR (-7)
•Venters: 20 bRAR, 14 fRAR (+6)
•O’Flaherty: 12 bRAR, 7 fRAR (+5)
•Minor: 2 bRAR, 7 fRAR (-5)
Overall, while the individual players see large differences between sites, the totals are fairly close. The Braves have earned a total of 128 bRAR and 118 fRAR. Either way, they’ve been really good. I tend to slightly prefer the B-Ref version for applications like this, when you are looking at past performance only. But if I were projecting future performance, I might use the FanGraphs version instead. Both are valid metrics.
June 24th, 20118:54 pm
Hey Tomahawkin – hows life?
Alaska Braves Fan
June 24th, 20118:55 pm
Ahhhhh! Alaska! I left Georgia in 2000 to move up here because the state was hot and getting hotter. Best thing I ever did, except for marrying up. 66° today, sunny, and the snow-topped mountains across the bay are beautiful.
I do wish I were closer to the Braves. I have to find a way to get to Seattle, San Francisco, or San Diego to see them when the come west, and this year I’ll miss them altogether. This looks to me like a breakthrough year, so I really would love to see them in person.
Is it just me, or has AJC screwed up these blogs so you can’t navigate through them? I keep hitting pages that have little on them and will let me go nowhere. Aaugh!
Ok, this West Coast 10PM ballgame has really opened my eyes to just how empty my life is without the Braves… I’m watching a documentary on tree climbing on GPB. Wow… Come on first pitch!
June 24th, 20118:56 pm
Okay guys, we get it….everyplace in the universe has nicer weather than Georgia
Bat Masterson. I was interested in your comments at 6:40 concerning the Cynthia Parker story. I read a book about her written by a women that may have been Plummer. It was very graphic and did cover the rape. The Indians like to keep the younger childern they captured and usually treated them very well. The Indian’s birth rate was not very high. They moved around a lot and they did not have more babies than they could pick up and carry with them. This book discussed the Texas Ranger’s fights with the Indians. The Rangers went out with every pistol they could carry because in a running fight from horse back they were abe do a lot better than the Indians with their weapons. When Cynthia Parker heard about the death of her husband she slashed her breast which was a form of morning for the Indian women. The whites she was with were not able to stop her. I do not believe her was able to adjust to the white community and kept trying to get back to the Indians.
June 24th, 20119:00 pm
Oh and RHR – no, no bro-hawk
If I wasn’t working this summer, I probably would have.
June 24th, 20119:04 pm
Been reading but haven’t posted this season. The Relief “overuse” is very concerning. Kimbrel and Venters need to argue calls and get suspended for a few days. The only way I see not to burn them out.
Have been a Mick fan since I was a kid. This song was the best sports song written in my opinion. Great Blog DOB
Braves Fan in PA
June 24th, 20119:11 pm
Gwinnett pecking away now 9-5
Realistic I think the Braves go after a right handed bat for the bench someone similar to what Mather was supposed to do (play some outfield and some first base). I don’t see them doing a big deal. Just hope they don’t over pay to do that.
June 24th, 20119:13 pm
Looks like Oswalt just went on the disabled list with a bad back, and the Phils just cut loose J. C. Romero.
I like our pitching, almost as much as Cookie Rojas liked to turn double plays with Freddie Patek.
June 24th, 20119:14 pm
Where ya working this summer, jeffrey?
June 24th, 20119:17 pm
David, thank you for the great song!
jeffrey d everyplace in the universe has nicer weather than Georgia
Oh, I don’t know about that…Mercury might be slightly warmer…
The A’s & Phils are locked in a pitcher’s duel.
no score….top 8th.
June 24th, 20119:19 pm
Alaska is high on my list BTW Chief.
June 24th, 20119:24 pm
Dominic Brown owns Jason Heyward.
June 24th, 20119:33 pm
Except even in a slump Heyward is leading Brown in nearly every offensive category
Do you agree that Schafer is just being shown as a trade chip right now or do you think the Braves actually think he’s a part of their future?
Personally I believe they’re positioning themselves to acquire a longterm CF like Bourn or possibly Kemp.
June 24th, 20119:34 pm
CWS has turned out to be a nice warm up to this late first pitch
June 24th, 20119:37 pm
Real Men can take the heat. Real Men don’t complain.
June 24th, 20119:38 pm
Real Men don’t own a Makn
June 24th, 20119:39 pm
What’s a Makn?
June 24th, 20119:40 pm
Lmao it was suppose to be Man. I am all Mixxo’d up
June 24th, 20119:41 pm
Mixxo’d says he can’t take the heat and some man owns Heyward
June 24th, 20119:42 pm
Prediction: Uggla’s bat comes alive at Petco Park. Bank.
Doc "Joe is gone" Holliday
June 24th, 20119:43 pm
June 24th, 2011
The A’s & Phils are locked in a pitcher’s duel.
no score….top 8th.
I would use other words to define that scoreless game.
hey everyone miss me?
June 24th, 20119:47 pm
Victorino walk-off comin’ up????
June 24th, 20119:48 pm
come on oakland
hit peckertino in the face…don’t even ear hole him in the face
June 24th, 20119:49 pm
I like Georgia weather. Variety is the spice of life, no? And you can get all four seasons in one week down here. It’s just great.
We got home last night(this morning@ 2am) from our Atlanta Vacation.
A few observations I wanted to share.
1. Atlanta was a very nice visit,People (all of them we interacted with) were very friendly,helpful and courteous…..Even in the not so nice parts of town.
2.As busy as any big city I have ever driven in…L.A., Detroit,Dallas etc
But the other drivers were never rude and not a single middle finger salute in our 10 days in town.
3.Lake Lanier was awesome,The striper guide we used(Tom Blackburn)was outstanding.
4.Billyjacks BBQ and shrimp co. super good food, good prices.
5.The Braves games we attended …the Mutts series ,could have been better,But the Turner field experience was good,Easy in and out and close parking,Anyone who thinks otherwise has never been to a game @ the ballpark in Arlington or Tiger stadium.
June 24th, 20119:51 pm
Joe West just robbed the A’s of a K. That was strike three to Shane.
June 24th, 20119:52 pm
June 24th, 20119:53 pm
Our problem is a lack of work horse starters. We have the best ERA in baseball, but Philly has the top 2 starters in innings pitched. Over a long season, that will become critical.
Lets go Braves! Hopefully Lowe can get this road trip off to a good start!
June 24th, 20119:55 pm
June 24th, 2011
I like Georgia weather. Variety is the spice of life, no? And you can get all four seasons in one week down here. It’s just great.\
I rather enjoyed the weather(other than the 1 big t-storm 6-14 i think).
We come home (Oklahoma) it was 108 here…heat index of 114 @4pm
Is Ben Francisco going to be the hero?
June 24th, 20119:57 pm
Guess he is….GW RBI single.
You can’t bottle that folks.
Thanks for introducing us to that song. I got my hubby to listen to it as Mantle was his boyhood idol. When he was a high school pitcher, he met MM at some sports show and was just thrilled.
Of course, I had to listen to his story – again – about how he pitched a no-hitter on a broken ankle in the last 4 innings. No kidding, I have confirmed this story at a high school reuntion.
We talk baseball, other sports, music, movies, BBQ and whatever (except politics or religion)
Atlanta Braves RSS feed
Previous entries »
Send a feedback technical issue
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution